SB Nation - Jared Norton

Roster Stew: Texas Longhorns Linebackers

Peter Bean — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:36:59 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

While waiting for OSU's games against Houston and Baylor to download, let's continue with the midseason Roster Stew. Part 1 on the DL is here.

Linebackers

Senior Rod Muckelroy leads Texas with 45 tackles, including 7 for a loss (2 sacks), in addition to 7 QB hurries and 5 passes broken up, but consistency -- learning to better channel his energy and aggression -- is the name of the game from here forward. Muck's fierce love for the game and desire to make plays unquestionably is a strength, but at times this year it has worked against him, leading him to over-run plays and abandon assignments. That, of course, is an easily correctable flaw, and if he can tighten his play down the stretch and add some strength before the combine, he can be a first day draft choice.

Sophomore Keenan Robinson -- one of "My Guys" this summer -- is having a strong breakout season, now third on the team with 30 tackles, 1 for a loss. (Worth noting: 2 of Texas' top 3 tacklers are linebackers, with E. Acho not far behind at number five -- this, of course, from a 4-2-5 defense. It wasn't long ago that our top tacklers in a 4-3 defense were all DBs.) Back to Robinson: he's a beast physically, with superior strength and good-not-great speed. His ability to shed blocks is a real asset; right now he needs to work on being in the right place every time. The coverage skills have been spotty, with some good flashes offset by multiple late reactions. By this time next year, he can be a run-destroying force. If he improves some within this season, he'll be an important player against any potential bowl opponent with a power rushing game.

Fellow sophomore Emmanuel Acho has been special in part-time action, with 8 of his 27 tackles going for a loss (1 sack), to go along with 3 forced fumbles. Projecting his long-term upside is difficult because he's something of a tweener -- depending on how much strength he can add (and how quickly), he might be someone Muschamp employs as a pass rusher. Judging from his frame, linebacker looks like his proper home, though, and he can be a great one. It's not hard to imagine him having a junior-senior run at the position like Derrick Johnson did.

If two years ago you'd told me Dustin Earnest would be playing 10-15 snaps a game as a junior, I'd have told you that you're... well, hey, two years ago Scott Derry was playing 40 snaps a game. But if you'd told me last year that Dustin Earnest would be playing this year, I'd have been awfully skeptical. But there he is, and though he's nothing special physically, he's a reflection of his position coach, Will Muschamp. Earnest gives us some needed depth and solid play we can count on as needed. That's tasty roster stew.

Redshirt freshman Ryan Roberson has been making cameos on special teams and mop-up defensive duties (7 tackles on the year), while true freshmen Tariq Allen and Patrick Nkwopara are redshirting. Jared Norton will be taking a medical redshirt season and will be a welcomed addition of depth next season when Texas loses Muckelroy to graduation. Looking forward to the 2010 class, Texas has a pair of signees I'm excited about -- Cedar Hill's Aaron Benson and Garland's Tevin Jackson -- with a potential commitment from Ohio's Jordan Hicks potentially making this a devastating LB class for Mssr. Muschamp.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

---

Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Talkin' Texas: 2009 Longhorns Football at the Quarter Pole

Peter Bean — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

PB: Been a while since we've Talked Texas, my friend. I have to say I'm glad to be doing so under the circumstances we are. What's your quarter-term evaluation of the team?

Big Roy: Despite a few hiccups along the way, mostly involving McCoy interceptions, the first half against Wyoming, and some continued struggles with identity in the running game. I have to feel extremely happy about where the team is. The defense just rocked UTEP and teams are falling by the wayside every weekend in the Race to the Roses.

PB: We can quibble (and because we're unhealthily obsessed, undoubtedly will) about the minutiae, but I don't think there's any way around describing Texas' position heading into this week as pretty near perfect. I wonder whether we're having a different conversation if Texas' third game of the season was against UCF instead of Tech, but that scheduling change was a boon and I'm not sure we could ask for much more heading out of bye week.

Moving to specifics: Who's your favorite offensive player so far?

Big Roy: Unhealthily obsessed, huh? I can't quibble with the second part, but my health is quite excellent, sir, thank you. I believe Austin, Texas agrees with me well indeed. I would have to say that Dan Buckner's contributions to the offense right now ranks on top -- he's given the Longhorns that threat over the middle that they need in the Davis passing game and he's just such a mismatch in that flex tight end position, but not only that, he has great hands and McCoy seems to trust him.

PB: Your girlfriend says otherwise, slacker. (What?)

I will say that Dan Buckner is indisputably healthy, though -- kid is an awesome athlete just beginning to come into his own as a player. And I'm with you, if McCoy is the de facto MVP and Newton the surprise spark, Buckner has been my favorite offensive player so far.

Let's look forward a bit now: after four games who are you seeing as improved and/or with the potential to break out? I'll throw Tray Allen's name into the ring, for starters. He's taken the Step this year.

Big Roy: Mack Brown mentioned that this week and it's great to see Allen finally contributing and living up to the considerable hype that accompanied him to campus. My answer to that question is going to be a little bit vague, though -- I'm looking for a third receiver to break out. I don't know if it's going to be Kirkendoll or Malcolm Williams or maybe even a guy like Marquise Goodwin if McCoy can establish the same rapport with him that Gilbert already somewhat preternaturally does.

Maybe it's John Chiles. To me, McCoy is just too good not to establish a high level of comfort with one of those guys.

PB: How about Brian Davis? I mean Brandon Collins? I mean.... nevermind.

Big Roy: Facepalm.

From the Brian Davis school of academic progress.

PB: I think that's a good wish for a development we see soon, and I'll add a healthy Fozzy Whittaker to that list. I think McGee and Newton are perfectly fine, but I can't shake my optimism about Whittaker as a difference-maker. (This makes me a tried and true Texas fan, of course: the best player is always the one not playing.)

Big Roy: There is a Flavor of the Week spot open for the Mythical Fozzy creature this week with his name on it. I'm really excited about possibly being able to get through around half the season or so without having to repeat one yet. Hopefully I won't have to start stretching it soon.

I have to say I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the artist recently known as Fragile Fozzy (dadgummit, I said I wasn't going to use that for a while...) until he manages to produce for a couple games in a row. The potential though, why, it's mythic.

Drink that Kool-Aid, PB! You should get a pimp-style Longhorn chalice for that

PB: If you'd given the Flavor of the Week award to Jamison Whatshisname last week, you'd have a damn good shot at it. Live and learn...

Big Roy: I'm hoping that Jamison makes an appearance at CU this weekend, but if not, there's always UCF...

PB: It'll be fun when Berryhill outrushes Darrell Scott in DKR.

Jamison Berryhill: Not cursed.

Okay, defense. A radio guy asked me the other day if this was Texas' best defense ever. I told him to check the '83 archives and wait 'til the season is over, but it's not a stretch to think this unit might finish the season as Mack Brown's best-ever unit.

Big Roy: Ha! Hmm...I don't think I'm qualified to make that comparison -- whills is probably a better bet for something like that, but this defense does have potential greatness written all over it. It's no secret that I love me some Aaron Williams and to see a playmaker like Emmanuel Acho come on -- if there are players not protecting the football when he's around, it's got a good chance of coming out. And I think that is why this defense has a chance to be so good -- it's like the light switch has come on the last several weeks in terms of converting opportunities into turnovers.

On top of that, I think there is still room for growth as well. The only thing that concerns me is depth at defensive tackle and safety.

PB: This is why the Tech scheduling switch was so important. They got it going that Saturday night against the Red Raiders. UTEP paid the price.

(Taylor Potts: Excuse me?)

Big Roy: No doubt and it was a hefty Price for UTEP. Can you believe that ol' Mikey got paid for that performance? Guess he made amends last week. And that scheduling change really did work out well for the Longhorns.

PB: I hope you're running a set of stairs to punish yourself for that pun. Go on, I'll type while you repent.

Big Roy: I've got a nice hill beside my place. Does that count? The two of us have had some previous battles...

PB: I think the most comforting thing defensively has to be the exceptional performance we've seen from the defensive line. Seeing Eddie Jones and Sergio Kindle upright bookending the line is so sexy.

Big Roy: Jones is playing with the intensity of someone who has almost had football taken away from him. Perhaps because he has. I feel great for him being out on the field and contributing in such a meaningful way. Why is it taking three years for all these former five stars? Jones, Allen, Chiles, Kindle. That's the start of a trend right there.

PB: Do 2006-07 even count for those guys?

Big Roy: Yuck. Almost seems like they shouldn't, right? I certainly can't blame Kindle. Jesus, I just had some Killebrew - Bobino - Derry flashbacks. How did this get started again? Make it stop. But about Kindle -- that freaky leg plant is just sick. I tried to demonstrate what it looked like for someone the other day, didn't work very well. Re-watching that Tech game he just wore that tackle out. Okay, yes, these memories are much more pleasant. Whew.

PB: Yeah probably better not do that. You'll wind up like DJ Grant. Your knee no like.

Big Roy: Plus I probably look stupid, too. So there's whatever pride I hope to maintain as well.

PB: Moving back from the line, I have forgotten several times already that Jared Norton is a Texas Longhorn. And it has little to do with him, really. Robinson and Acho are just exceptionally talented and clearly ready for an exciting three-year run.

Big Roy: Definitely some flashes from both of them. Let's put Jordan Hicks in there, too, shall we? But I digress. Like said, though, flashes from them. The potential that is still there is sick. I mentioned this to someone the other day, but can we just make a football team filled only with Texans of Nigerian descent? How fun would that be? Pretty good, too.

PB: There's not much to debate about the defense -- very good, on the verge of truly great, and with championship potential. The Muschamp hire has been moderately pleasing.

Also pleasing: the special teams! Mack's had some good ST units before, but this group is outrageous.

Big Roy: DJ Monroe. You don't really need to say much more than that, but Shipley has been great, Tucker has been excellent besides the dumb play against Wyoming and truly does have the left-footed rugby punt down. And Malcolm Williams -- it's been a huge disappointment that he hasn't contributed more on offense, but his work on special teams is truly valuable. Hopefully the team is improving a bit in kickoff coverage, but it's hard to be good at that right now, as Brown is currently preaching.

PB: There's your third receiver, by the way. Davis needs to quit monkeying around with Shipley at split end, tell Malcolm he trusts him, and let he and Colt work it out. His blocking alone is plenty valuable; the catches will come.

Big Roy: It would be nice if it were that simple, but I'm not sure it is. I think Davis likes Shipley commanding a safety deep on his side of the field because it frees up routes on the other side, particularly Buckner in the middle. Of course, I like Williams is they decide to leave him one-on-one over there and blocking on weakside runs, but I just want him on the field right now, even just in the slot because he can help out blocking there too. Especially on a play like the speed option out of the WildHorn. I definitely agree about him just needing to play and until Kirkendoll starts making some more plays, I don't have any problem with taking him off the field for a while. More Malcolm, please!

PB: It's just not possible to say you can't stretch the safety with Williams, so if that's it, Davis is a fool. I actually think it's a lack of trust in Williams and that because his blocking is superior he's useful in the slot. Nevertheless, the better play in my mind is to get Williams back to split end, return Shipley to the slot, where those two have their highest ceilings. Of course, the non-con season would have been the time to work this out, but we're quibbling.

I know we've both got CU posts in the works, so let's wrap this briefly: Any predictions you wanna make?

Big Roy: There has been a little bit more work in the last two games with Williams at the X and Shipley in the slot, so I think it could be coming. Agree about the lack of trust, not sure if it's more with the coaches or McCoy, but the drops in limited action don't help -- that's two, with one intercepted against Tech late.

Okay, turning to CU now?

PB: Yeah, any predictions for Saturday?

Big Roy: Well, it seems that you have already gone with more rushing yards for Berryhill than Scott and I think that's a tough one to top. Mostly, I just think Colorado tries to run the ball to shorten the game and not make the final score look as bad as it could, but I think Texas loads up and forces a lot of 3rd and longs for rag-armed lil Hawk and crew and that's when the fun starts. Not for lil Hawk, though. It gets ugly early for the Buffs. (Did you know that lil Hawk is a lot like Colt?)

PB: Hard to predict anything other than a comfortable margin of victory. I'll save my full thoughts for my post, but I'm mostly going to be watching to see Texas attack the game with purpose. It would be a mistake to "save up" for OU.

Big Roy: I agree. This is serious preparation time. Unleash the Predator and the WildHorn. Stampede!

Okay, that was maybe a little cheesy.

PB: Are you auditioning for a columnist job at a newspaper? You're on a roll today, buddy.

Big Roy: I could be the next Kirk Bohls! Yes, I can! Yes, I can! (starting chant)

PB: And we're off the tracks. A sign to cut it off. Enjoy the weekend, sir. Hook 'em!

Big Roy: Indeed. And you as well, my friend in Longhorn football obsession. I'll be gettin' my horns up.

Ten Thoughts on Texas Football: Week One Notes

Peter Bean — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:41:51 -0000

Ah, sweet football returns. Unfortunately, yours truly got pulled away to a wedding in Bend, Oregon, filled with guests who didn't think an opening weekend wedding much a problem since the Ducks opened their season on Thursday evening. While I managed not to get sucker-punched, I did fall way behind on my football consumption. Time to start getting caught up... your week one thoughts are after the jump.

D.J. Monroe is faster than you.

All our anxiety about Fozzy Whittaker and whether Texas could find a big play threat at tailback? Gone. The anxiety now rests squarely with Fozzy and -- with the promising debut of redshirt freshman D.J. Monroe -- whether by the time he gets healthy there will be a role for him. Setting aside what it means for the depth chart, the most exciting aspect of what Monroe brings to the team is an explosiveness Texas is going to need to run the table this year. Whether they need it in a shootout with one of the Oklahomas or Missouri, or down the road against a top-tier bowl opponent like Florida (look familiar?), Monroe is precisely the kind of offensive weapon the Longhorns need to open up the field, provide big plays, and make defenses think. As good as McCoy has been, just wait and see what he and the offense are capable of with a guy like Monroe in the mix.
Speaking of Monroe, how good might the Texas special teams be this year? D.J. was the highlight on Saturday, but in the return game alone, don't be surprised to see if either Jordan Shipley and/or Aaron Williams run one back for six at some point this season, too. Texas has an All American-caliber punter in John Gold, a nifty niche guy in Justin Tucker, and two proven veterans (Hunter Lawrence and Ryan Bailey) pushing each other on place kicks. Throw in the nasty athleticism the Longhorns deploy on kick coverage, and you might be looking at the nation's best special teams.
Back to the tailbacks: Sophomore Cody Johnson is one of those guys who's easy both to overrate and underrate. On the one hand, his steadiness and inability to lose yards make him a tempting choice for a featured role... if you're trying to win the 1985 Big 10 championship. (The Texas coaching staff flirted with the idea in the spring, but, perhaps fortuitously, Johnson tweaked his hammy and the coaches thought the better of it.) On the other hand, in discussing what Cody is not it's easy to under-appreciate just how much value he adds to the team as a short distance and goal to-go specialist. If it's possible there's one aspect of Tim Tebow's game that actually manages to be underrated, it's in this role; the one time Tebow came up short last season, Ole Miss stunned the Gators to hand them their lone loss on the season.
And finally, what do we make of Vondrell McGee's performance? Obviously, rotten tomatoes on the two fumbles, but outside those two ill-fated carries, the junior accumulated a solid 77 yards on 13 carries (5.9 per), including a nice finisher at the goal line for six. The optimistic take here is that McGee's proven himself fumble-averse in the past and if he needed a reminder of its importance, best to have the slip up against ULM in the season opener. A McGee doubter may have noted Tre Newton's strong fall camp and 28 yards on 4 carries Saturday and begun to wonder whether there's about to be a logjam of competition for featured carries. Whatever your take, all should agree that the competition and increasingly promising looking set of options are good things.
It's an absolute joy to watch Rodderick Muckelroy play football. At Texas, we're treated to scores of outrageously athletic and talented kids, but there's a third dimension to truly special players -- guys who so clearly live and breathe the game -- and Muck's got it in spades. He understands the game, wants to understand the game, drinks it all in, and plays with that unbridled passion that you can't teach. We're lucky to have him.
Because it's our team, and our obsession, we've been hyper-focused on what this Texas defense lacks (proven play at DT, outside Houston), but I think on Saturday we started to see why the strength everywhere else led me to conclude that "it's the defense that gives me the most confidence Texas can run the table." For starters, the talent Texas is fielding at defensive end is simply unfair. Kindle got the preseason press and Sam Acho looks poised to have the breakout season we expected. And then there's Alex Okafor, who I honestly thought might have to go through a year of dealing with outsized expectations from the fanbase before breaking through; after watching him in the spring, fall, and week one, I think he's ahead of where Brian Orakpo was as a true freshman and has a legitimate chance to develop into the #1 overall NFL Draft pick in four years.

At linebacker, the situation is so strong that Jared Norton's ankle injury isn't a major concern. We've already discussed Muck, but both Keenan Robinson (one of My Guys this year) and Emmanuel Acho look more than just ready for big minutes -- they demand them. Hell, even Dustin Earnest is starting to look like he can contribute quality minutes if need be, surprising me much like Georgia fans must have been surprised by the contributions of a one Will Muschamp 20 years ago.

As for the secondary? Its quality won't be catching anyone by surprise, but even today it's worth stepping back to contemplate just how silly the situation really is -- when guys like Deon Beasley can't crack the starting lineup, Ben Wells can't crack the two deep, and someone as supremely talented as Christian Scott better get his act together (on and off the field) if he expects to play. There's simply no room for error, no matter your pedigree: kick ass or sit down.

All told, this is, at the least, a defense whose glaring weakness is a problem fans can confront without panic, and whose upside is the potential to become as good as we've seen on the 40 Acres in the last 25 years.
I've been clamoring all off-season about how disappointed I'd be if Texas brought in Garrett Gilbert to run-run-run-punt away the fourth quarters of games. He's only getting his feet wet and we needn't overly-celebrate his delightful debut, but at least where his performance was an indication that Mack Brown and Greg Davis intend to play the second team offense, I couldn't be more pleased. If the opposition can't stop the second team, it's their problem not ours. Keep it coming, coaches.
We've talked a lot about the competition for playing time in the secondary, but what about the army of talent at wide receiver? And how about Dan Buckner? We'll find out more about how well Texas can slide in and out of the blocking/receiving tight end sets with impunity, but the early returns on Texas' flex-threat are terrific. There aren't many defenses who can stop this offense spread out four wide, especially if the running backs are making defenses pay for selling out on the pass.
I, for one, am glad Texas was far from perfect on Saturday night. No question, they were sufficiently impressive, but one of my worries for this team was that things would come just a little bit too easy in the early going. The Texas Longhorns online presence is a magnifiently rich one, but perhaps even more so than godfathers like Geoff Ketchum at Orangebloods, I'm not sure anyone has devoted more words to analyzing Mack Brown from a big picture perspective than I have. Part of that's five years at this website and three years writing The Eyes of Texas magazines, and part of that's just the fact that I can't control my word counts, but the biggest reason I've hammered out so many words on this topic is that I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about it. None of which is to say I'm the authority on Texas football (you won't find a better post-game breakdown than this guy's, for example), but you won't find many out there who have so systematically analyzed Mack Brown and the Texas program from a big picture perspective during his tenure.

I point all that out to qualify my argument that there was as much value in Saturday's bad moments as good. This should all probably be a post of its own, but for now, at least, the Cliff's Notes: First, I'm glad Colt McCoy threw an interception. One of the keys to Texas' offense improving upon 2008 depends firmly upon Greg Davis not feeling comfortable with the idea that he can just ride Colt McCoy's exceptional talents. To be sure, Texas can be very, very good just riding McCoy's coattails, but to give the team the best chance of running the regular season and, should it do so, maximize its chances of beating a ridiculously great team like Florida, the Texas offense needs to be as well-rounded and explosive as possible. We want to put Colt in a position to bring home the trophy because defenses have to key on more than just him; to the extent that Colt's early mistakes open Davis's eyes to the idea of building a more robust offense, they are a positive.

Second, I'm glad Vondrell McGee fumbled the football. Related to the first point, mistakes like McGee's in non-contests serve a dual purpose -- reinforcing among the players that the details matter, and among the coaches that the competition for playing time must be a season-long evaluation. You perform, you play. Nothing else matters.

Third, I'm glad that the defense allowed 20 points. Because right now, Will Muschamp is either literally or metaphorically out there with his defense, staring at the Jumbotron, out of his mind with rage that he has to see the number 20 beneath the visitors' name. Watching his post-game press conference was both amusing and awe-inspiring; it was literally all Muschamp could do to sit there and answer questions about a game in which his defense had mostly played well. He rushed through his answers, visibly annoyed, and visibly eager to get back in the locker room to get to work.

Fourth, I'm glad that Chykie Brown got smoked. I'm a huge fan of Chykie Brown, I love his go-go-gadget arms, his long strides, and his passion to man up a great receiver. But I'm an even bigger fan of top talent feeling challenged. A healthy Chykie Brown is as important to your defensive game plan against Danario Alexander, Detron Lewis, Dezmon Briscoe, and Dez Bryant as anything else, and this defense will be all the better if he feels as much pressure as everyone else in Texas' ridiculously talented and deep secondary to perform at the highest level possible, week in and week out.

There were other disappointments, but that's more than enough to make the point I want to hit: Mack Brown was right when he said on Saturday night that that was likely "the worst that we'll play all year," but it's important not because of what he said -- standard coachspeak, for the most part -- but because this is a team and coaching staff that seems genuinely focused on, and hungry for, excellence. This is a team and a program hitting its peak precisely because it learned the hard way that showing up with better talent only gets you so far, and that being your best means looking for and studying weaknesses, building on them to achieve your potential.

If all that sounds just a bit too abstract to consider, just remember that my big picture approach has always been an effort to better understand what we see on the field. And while a big part of that is how the players perform, at least as much is determined by Mack Brown and how he prepares them for battle. In that sense, consider me pleased that the team has plenty to work on in the weeks ahead.
Texas fans' eyes are rightly trained on 2009 as The Year to make the run at the BCS Title, but depending on the offensive line and how much Garrett Gilbert develops this year, is there any reason to be any less excited about what's ahead in 2010? The list of important, incredibly talented freshmen and sophomores who look like they're going to start contributing now, and will be even better a year from now, is a long one: Monroe, Newton, C. Johnson, Dan Buckner, Marquise Goodwin, Malcolm Williams, Aaron Williams, Earl Thomas, Alex Okafor, Keenan Robinson, Emmanuel Acho, Blake Gideon, Kheeston Randall, Calvin Howell... We could list others, but just let that sink in for a moment. There's a reason upperclassmen like Deon Beasley weren't cracking the starting line up in August. And don't even get me started on my excitement for a number of these guys. This football program changed on November 23, 2007 and the best of that change is just getting started.

Post-Game React: Texas 59 Louisiana-Monroe 20

GhostofBigRoy — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 17:48:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Yeah, you're gonna have some trouble keeping up there, stripey. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The outcome was: Mostly satisfactory. The Longhorn offense moved the ball easily in the first half, scoring on their first two drives before exploding for 24 points in the second quarter, keyed by DJ Monroe's 89-yard kickoff return for a touchdown on his first collegiate touch. Monroe's return helped provide the Sportscenter highlight that voters always seem to like, as well as helping to establish that 59 point final tally that surely will help "Leave No Doubt." Nothing about the final score will come back to haunt Texas in the run towards Pasadena.

However, there were some unsavory aspects to the game, notably the three turnovers, including three fumbles, two by starting running back Vondrell McGee, and an interception by Colt McCoy that looked exactly like the pick-six thrown against Texas Tech last season after McCoy absolutely stared down John Chiles. Michael Huey got carted off the field with a leg injury that will test the Texas depth along the offensive line and Jared Norton appeared to hurt his arm or shoulder. Chykie Brown badly blew his assignment in coverage and gave up a long touchdown pass and the defensive line didn't get as much pressure against Troy Revell as expected against such an overmatched opponent.

Oh yeah, and McCoy barely completed more than 70% of his passes. Unacceptable. What happened to the Colt that we knew and loved?

The Offensive MVP was: Jordan Shipley. It's tempting to give this award to Monroe and his long kickoff return, as well as his nine carries for 64 yards, but it goes to Shipley and his team-leading eight catches for 180 yards and one touchdown. The numbers are impressive and Shipley will continue to remain McCoy's favorite target as long as he can stay healthy, but Shipley gets Offensive MVP honors because of his 78-yard touchdown catch, the type of play that Longhorn fans hope provides a glimpse of Shipley's ability to catch the deep the ball. More explosive plays downfield in the passing game will keep Shipley from catching as many short passes while he takes big hits from the defense. And hey, everyone likes big plays.

The offensive Offensive LVP was: Vondrell McGee. It's a little bit difficult to be too critical after a win that mostly lived up to even the highest of expectations, but after the coaches spent another spring and fall emphasizing ball security and after a season in which Longhorn running backs didn't lose a single fumble, McGee's two fumbles against Louisiana-Monroe were unacceptable. Had Fozzy Whittaker been healthy or Cody Johnson more ready to be an every-down back, McGee probably wouldn't have touched the ball much after the two miscues. It was difficult to tell on the replays what McGee was doing wrong, but the bottom line is that he needs to protect the ball much better as the season wears on. Hopefully the mistakes were anomalies and the fumbles don't become a trend.

The Defensive MVP was: Sam Acho. On a night when the defensive line wasn't overly impressive in their ability to get to the quarterback and finish the play, Acho showed off his high-level motor and nose for the football, recovering two ULM fumbles and finishing with four tackles. The Longhorns will need more than just Sergio Kindle playing well to replace the lost production of Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton and Acho's game on Saturday night indicated that he's ready to finally step into a major role on the team after two years as a bit player. Will Muschamp must be pleased about that.

The offensive Defensive LVP was: Chykie Brown. Much like the offensive Offensive LVP, putting anyone in this slot in a blowout that didn't even stay close very long might be overly critical. Brown's trangressions are really just a single trangression, the 75-yard touchdown allowed to the speedy Luther Ambrose when Brown blew his assignment in coverage. Placed in the context of the game and the fact that Ambrose is one of the fastest receivers, if not the fastest, that the Longhorns will play this season, the play isn't much to get worked up about, except for the fact that Brown is supposed to compete with Aaron Williams for the title of lock-down corner on the team and major mistakes that result in long touchdowns just won't cut it, not when there are players behind Brown waiting hungrily for their own opportunities.

Garrett Gilbert watch: 4/5 for 46 yards, one carry for 12 yards and a touchdown. One of the most satisfactory parts of the game was the poised performance of the true freshman quarterback when he finally entered the game in the fourth quarter, replacing starter Colt McCoy. His lone drive was everything that one could expect from a player just months removed from leading his own high school team, as Gilbert helped march the Longhorns 73 yard down the field on 10 plays. Besides his accuracy and poise in the pocket completing four passes and another that DeSean Hales could have caught, Gilbert finished the drive with a nifty 12-yard touchdown scramble up the middle in which he provided a glimpse at the collegiate level of his improved running ability that aided Lake Travis in the playoffs last fall. Heartening indeed.

Wyoming Fear Factor: 0 out of 10. (5) is the baseline. +1 for the altitude at War Memorial Stadium, -1 for the new coach, Dave Christensen, having little time to establish his system, -1 because the offense was terrible last season, -2 because they lost their top two running backs, -2 because it's Wyoming.

Heading into next week I feel: Teased. Football is finally here, people, and I want more of it. The 60 minutes played on Saturday night were just a beginning, just a tease, and my thirst is nigh unquenchable after the eight-month offseason. Teased by the potential of the electric DJ Monroe, teased by the thre catches by Marquise Goodwin, teased by Shipley's long touchown catch. More, please!

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns Team Capsule

Peter Bean — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:02:25 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Before he hands Will Muschamp the keys to the machine, Mack Brown wants another national title at Texas.

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The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Texas team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece.

When Texas has the ball: Texas returns 8 starters (Lost: RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, RG Cedric Dockery) from an offense a year ago that averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play. The name everyone knows is ~~deserving~~ Heisman ~~winner~~ runner-up Colt McCoy, who led the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards in 2008. He also did a little passing: Following an up-and-down sophomore season, McCoy transformed into a robot last season, setting the single-season NCAA record for completion percentage in a season (76.7%), throwing a school record 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. If there's a legitimate critique of last year's outstanding offense, it would have to be the razor thin margins on which the Longhorns relied; looking forward to this fall, Texas would like to rely less on McCoy being a superhuman by bolstering the running game and finding more big plays.

The running game: Texas wasn't a poor rushing team a year ago, but the rushing attack was inconsistent and prone to disappear, necessitating McCoy's otherworldly performances to keep the engine humming. The offensive line is experienced, if not spectacular, returning four starters (LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Charlie Tanner, C Chris Hall, and RT Kyle Hix) who, combined with RG Michael Huey (3 starts in '08) enter the fall with 90 career starts between them. Both starting tackles are excellent in pass protection, but the question for this line will be their ability to create running room in the rushing offense. To that end, Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis appears committed to introducing more plays under center and more man blocking, but for the offense to truly reach its fullest potential, the unit will need to open holes in the running game when McCoy is in its favored 11-personnel, with McCoy in the shotgun, flanked by a tailback. Like last year, a triumvirate of tailbacks will rotate situationally, with Vondrell McGee the likely nominal starter, Fozzy Whittaker the do-it-all Ogbonnaya role, and Cody Johnson the short yardage specialist.

The passing game: Replacing departed WR Quan Cosby won't exactly be a cinch, but if Texas fails to do so, an impressive number of promising candidates would have to fail. In the spring, the speedy James Kirkendoll (now also having a great fall camp) got the starting nod at the Sub-B wideout position formerly occupied by Cosby, but fans are watching fellow junior Brandon Collins closely as well, particularly after Colt McCoy commented at Big 12 media days that Collins was poised to break out for a tremendous season. Behind those two, a small army of unproven young talents will compete for playing time, among them converted QB John Chiles, as well as the speedy DeSean Hales (RS-Fr), DJ Monroe (RS-Fr) and Marquise Goodwin (True Freshman). Returning to man the flanker position is The Roommate, Jordan Shipley, a 1000-yard receiver in 2008 with 11 touchdowns. On the outside, Texas expects big things from third-year sophomore Malcolm Williams, whose football skills are catching up to his outrageous athletic talent. (Expecting an update on the tight end position? It's cursed, thank you very little; we decline to name names.)

When opponents have the ball: If Texas is on your television screen on January 7th in Pasadena, this unit will be the reason. Don't get us wrong: Colt McCoy deserves all the attention and accolades, but it's the potential of this defensive unit that makes us most confident in Texas' chances to roll through the conference unblemished.

Rush defense: The Longhorns held opponents to a paltry 3.05 yards per rushing attempt last season, but they lose three starters -- DT Roy Miller and DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton -- to the NFL. Texas faces serious questions about the viability of the DT position in particular this fall, with only the exceptional Lamarr Houston returning. Vying for viability alongside him will be the senior situation space eater Ben Alexander, unproven sophomore Kheeston Randall, and recently converted offensive lineman Tray Allen. None of them needs to be spectacular, but at least one needs to prove himself capable of solid, block-eating play for 30-35 snaps a game. The rest of the work can be done by the talented, probably underrated, group of defensive ends and linebackers who will rotate heavily to keep everyone fresh. Everyone knows about Sergio Kindle, but by November, expect ends Eddie Jones and Sam Acho to be names every Big 12 quarterback knows as well. As for the linebackers, Texas has four players we absolutely love ready to lead what will prove to be the best tackling team in the conference: Rod Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Keenan Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho,

Pass defense: Two words come to mind: Un. Fair. The secondary may not prove as statistically dominant as Will Muschamp's 2003 title-winning LSU squad (too much help in run support for that, we suspect), but they'll make just as many big plays, and give top receivers in the conference more than a few forgettable nights. Both Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams look like First Team Big 12-level performers, Chykie Brown's not far behind, and Blake Gideon, Christian Scott, Curtis Brown, and Deon Beasley would comfortably start for at least 9 schools in the conference. This group is damn good.

The schedule: You could call it a two-game schedule (vs OU in Dallas, at Oklahoma State) and wouldn't draw much argument from the gallery. Beyond those two monsters, Texas's next three toughest tests all come at home: Texas Tech, Colorado, and Kansas. A road trip to Missouri on their homecoming might be a potential trap game (sandwiched between the two Oklahomas), but with a new quarterback and a questionable defensive line and secondary, an upset would be truly stunning. As for the non-conference schedule... well... maybe Texas just wanted to welcome home Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's it.

The outlook: Anything short of a 12-0 trip to the Rose Bowl will disappoint Texas fans, and for good reason. The talent cycle hits a peak this year, there's experience, skill talent, depth, and a favorable schedule. And some bitterness, too. Texas rightly felt hosed by the BCS system last season and will approach this season with a sense of focus, urgency, and more than a little hostility. That's a good thing for a program under Mack Brown that struggles when it's comfortable. All eyes on Dallas, then, for one of the biggest regular season football games of the last decade. We predict a Texas win and, two months later, a return trip to Vince Young Stadium West.

Poll

Predict Texas' losses in 2009.

None -- See you in Pasadena.

554 votes

1 -- Oklahoma

35 votes

1 -- Oklahoma State

64 votes

1 -- Other

18 votes

2 -- OU and Oklahoma State

19 votes

2 -- Other

7 votes

3 or more

1 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Practice Report

Peter Bean — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 07:19:04 -0000

While I was tied up here in California doing EDSBS LIVE, the Longhorns were busy in Austin practicing in front of fans. An old friend was nice enough to give me a call after the practice and share with me his thoughts. After the jump, I'll share with you the notes I took from our conversation. I wasn't there, but this is from someone whose judgment I value; I'd certainly be interested to hear the thoughts from others who made it out to DKR.

"This is the 12th straight year I've gone to open fall practices and I'm more excited about this team than I have been any team in memory -- even the 2005 team. Maybe because we'd lost five straight to OU back then, I was afraid to believe. I believe in this team already."
"It looked to me like DJ Grant had his leg catch on the ground while he took a little pop from Earl Thomas. The body went one way while the leg stayed still. I suspect the knee popped, but who knows. We can hope it was just a strain."
"Everyone around me was impressed by Barrett Matthews. Texas isn't going to have an all-conference guy like Pettigrew out there, but we don't need one. We just need someone to keep defenses honest. Matthews' athleticism and versatility surprised me. I'm hopeful he can fill the role we need in the passing game."
"For all Colt's summer gushing about Brandon Collins, it was James Kirkendoll who looked like his new BFF. At least tonight. I've seen enough of these not to read too much into the small sample, but I like that we have some competition for the Quan Cosby role."
"The #2 QB battle is more interesting than I thought it would be. Sherrod Harris looked 100% healthy to me, which is great, but I was pretty wowed by what it looks like Garrett Gilbert will become -- and quickly. It's an interesting short-, medium-, and long-term strategy problem for the coaches to ponder. I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how you'd handle it." [PB: I'll devote a post to this, but I'd get Gilbert going now. There are good arguments on both sides, though. More later.]
"I'm with you on thinking Vondrell McGee can be a successful tailback for this team. Guy is solid in all the right ways, and more explosive than people realize. Like you, I think he's the nominal starter. Anything we get from Fozzy Whittaker is a bonus. He's intriguing, but he may need more space than our offense creates. We'll see."
Asking about Colt and any other receivers he noticed: "McCoy is sharp, but what I really love is watching him lead the team. You need that to win 12 straight games. He's a man out there. As for receivers, I don't have much more to add. I like our depth and think the group will produce more than enough playmakers. Malcolm Williams is close, real close. He's not thinking with the ball in his hands anymore, which is huge. The new burner -- Marquise Goodwin -- can play ball. Neither DJ Monroe nor DeSean Hales looks ready to be a regular contributor; both are a year away."
"The defense showed a lot of different looks, including a bunch of sets from the 3-4, with Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Emmanuel Acho, and Keenan Robinson out there together at times. Given our situation at DT, it makes sense -- all four are playmakers. You wonder how Texas would fare against a team with a power rushing attack, but then you look at the Big 12 and shrug. Who f***ng cares? Both Texas and OU have better defenses than anyone outside the conference will ever realize."
"This isn't Mack Brown's strongest defensive line, but it may be his quickest. I think it's enough for Muschamp to get by. We'll see. An injury to Lamarr Houston would be catastrophic."
"The secondary is just unfair. We've talked about this before, but Aaron Williams is the best true sophomore DB Texas has ever had in the Mack Brown era. And we've had some good ones. Chykie Brown is healthy and is just so long, both in his strides and in his arms; when he concentrates with his footwork, he's not getting passed on. Curtis Brown has the raw athleticism but isn't there fundamentally yet. He had trouble with Kirkendoll tonight. Still, I'd rather have him than anyone on, say, Oklahoma State. Earl Thomas is All-Conference, and Blake Gideon and Christian Scott will do a great job competing with one another for top minutes."
"I didn't focus on the line play too much, but if I'm able to make it to tomorrow's practice I'll look in. The main thing for me is while I don't want to put too much into player notes on one practice, the way I saw everyone out there working made me 100% believe this team is what we think it is. All the hype will be about the Texas and OU offenses, but the real story is the defenses. The Sooners are much better on D than anyone in the mainstream media will talk about, but so is Texas. In fact, if you made me draft any defense from the MB era, I'm not sure I wouldn't choose this group #1, depth at tackle be damned. My love for the LBs/DBs is that strong."

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

How much will Texas miss Brian Orakpo?

Browse more photos »

Yesterday we took a look at a Texas offense that could be described as anything between "uncertain" and "great." It all basically depends on how well Colt McCoy can duplicate his passing downs success from 2008. On the defense, it all depends on how UT replaces Brian "O-Sack-Po" Orakpo. All of the other pieces are in place, and there are plenty of super-duper, highly-recruited players at the DE position, but as I mentioned yesterday with the offense, how quickly some guys can turn potential into production will dictate whether Texas is playing for a national title in 2009, or just maybe a Big 12 title.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 146.4 (#2)
Success Rate+: 130.7 (#2)
PPP+: 167.7 (#3)

Standard Downs S&P+: 130.6 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+: 145.0 (#4)

Red Zone S&P+: 163.0 (#1)

Q1 S&P+: 162.5 (#2)
Q2 S&P+: 126.3 (#14)
Q3 S&P+: 156.7 (#2)
Q4 S&P+: 108.3 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 129.0 (#5)
2nd Down S&P+: 132.1 (#6)
3rd Down S&P+: 147.7 (#3)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 147.1 (#2)
Rushing SR+: 133.7 (#2)
Rushing PPP+: 169.5 (#3)

Standard Downs: 119.3 (#20)
Passing Downs: 165.4 (#4)

Redzone: 165.8 (#3)

Line Yards+: 124.6 (#10)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 148.9 (#3)
Passing SR+: 128.2 (#4)
Passing PPP+: 174.3 (#4)

Standard Downs: 144.6 (#3)
Passing Downs: 144.0 (#9)

Redzone: 174.5 (#3)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.7% (#5)

Whereas the UT offense saw disproportionate success on Passing Downs compared to Standard Downs, the UT defense was pretty consistently great no matter the down, quarter, or type of play (run/pass).

They ranked in the top five for both SR+ and PPP+ in Rushing, Passing, and overall defense.
They had the #1 red zone defense in the country.
They were Top 10 in both Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate.
Really, there are only two sources of variance: their rushing defense was better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and they were much better in Q1/Q3 than Q2/Q4. Of course, if you had to choose a time to be great, you should choose Q1/Q3--without Q1/Q3 strength, Q4 may not matter.
Looking at all categories, you have to go pretty far to find a weakness. Here's one: they ranked in the nation's bottom ten in Q4 Rushing Success Rate+, Q4 Rushing Line Yards+, and Q4 Rushing S&P+. Of course, they only played four games decided by less than 20 points, so a large majority of Q4 rushes took place with UT's #1 defense off the field.
The Pass Defense rankings are the most impressive considering a) they improved from 29th in 2007 to 3rd in 2008, and b) they did so with two freshmen starting at safety.

Defensive Line

Lamarr Houston brings experience to an otherwise relatively green line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #2 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Lamarr Houston (6'2, 290, Sr.)
DE Eddie Jones (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DE Sam Acho (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DT Kheeston Randall (6'5, 290, So.)
DE Alex Okafor (6'4, 240, Fr.)
DT Ben Alexander (6'0, 310, Sr.)
DE Dravannti Johnson (6'2, 232, RSFr.)
DT Kyle Kriegel (6'5, 265, Fr.)

Sophomore tackle Michael Wilcoxon left the team very recently, which hurts depth a bit. At least, it hurts experience a bit. Chances are, at least one true freshman will break into the rotation behind Lamarr Houston and Kheeston Randall. Kyle Kriegel was in for the spring, but 4-star freshmen Calvin Howell and Derek Johnson should be ready to fight it out for a spot in August. The 'Horns will miss underrated Roy Miller (11 TFL, 28 QB Hurries) at tackle, but Houston (7 TFL, 11 QBH) was solid, and Randall has a nice pedigree. The experience from Houston and Ben Alexander can't hurt either.

Whereas UT was good at DT last year, they were great at DE, thanks in part to Brian Orakpo and his 19 TFL, 11.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and 30 QBH. Seriously, we at RMN really liked Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis--they combined for 21.5 TFL, 13.5 sacks, and 12 QBH. Granted, they forced a really impressive eight fumbles, but still. Orakpo was ridiculously good. Also gone: RB-turned-DE Henry Melton (10 TFL, 4 sacks). That's a lot of sacks and hurries to replace.

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

The components are certainly all here for the 'Horns to have another great D-line--it's just that it's always hard to assume such a thing when you lose somebody as great as Orakpo. The odds are in their favor, though.

Linebackers

Sergio Kindle: too much of a stud to play just one position.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Sergio Kindle (6'4, 255, Sr.)
Roddrick Muckelroy (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Jared Norton (6'3, 237, Sr.)
Keenan Robinson (6'3, 232, So.)
Tariq Allen (6'2, 245, Fr.)
Emmanuel Acho (6'2, 235, So.)

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Secondary

Sadly, Blake Gideon is thus far remembered for the play he didn't make.

2008 Unit Ranking: #4 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Earl Thomas (5'10, 197, So.)
S Blake Gideon (6'1, 200, So.)
CB Chykie Brown (6'1, 187, Jr.)
CB Deon Beasley (5'10, 180, Sr.)
CB Aaron Williams (6'1, 189, So.)
CB Curtis Brown (6'1, 185, Jr.)
S Christian Scott (6'1, 209, So.)
S Nolan Brewster (6'2, 210, So.)

That such a young unit led such an impressive move up the passing rankings (from 29th to 3rd) is rather astounding. With freshman safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon holding down the fort at safety, and a batch of solid (mostly young) corners, UT had the best pass defense in the Big 12, and it's hard to imagine that changing with most of the key cast of characters coming back in 2009. Of course, what is most memorable out the secondary are the two plays they didn't make--Gideon dropping the INT, then Beasley (I think) whiffing on the tackle of Crabtree at the end of the Tech game--but that's unfair since this unit made most of the rest of the plays they needed to make.

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

Special Teams

Google searching for Hunter Lawrence, I also found this pic.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 Net Punting, #72 Punt Returns, #32 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Hunter Lawrence (6'0, 187, Sr.) - 60-for-60 PAT, 10-for-12 FG (long: 46)
P John Gold (6'3, 212, Jr.) - 39.6 Net Avg
KR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 26.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 10.7 Avg, 1 TD

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Summary

If the Texas defensive line can approximate last year's success, then the linebackers and secondary should be more than good enough to keep Texas in the Top 5 of the defensive S&P+ rankings. Six starters return among the back seven, and the backups were highly-touted recruits. It all hinges on line success, however. There is no way to underestimate how disruptive the D-line--particularly Orakpo, Miller, and (when he played DE) Kindle--was, and how integral it was to UT's success. Opposing quarterbacks having almost no time to throw cleanly definitely a green secondary, and while the secondary won't need quite as much help in 2009, they'll still need some. Find a solid rush end to line up opposite Kindle--be it Acho, Jones, Okafor, or whoever--and UT will have a national title-caliber defense.

---

Projections on Friday.

Morning Coffee Wonders About Duncanville

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 03:10:14 -0000

Collapse ends Williams' high school career. It wasn't supposed to end this way. Not after taking home the state championship in 2007. Not after starting the season ranked as the number one team in the country. Not after the outgoing seniors won 130 games in their four seasons -- three of them will attend Division I programs next year. But it did end, in extremely disappointing fashion, as the Duncanville Panthers gave up a 16-point second half lead against eventual state runner-up Cedar Hill and lost on a last-second shot.

Gerry Hamilton describes ($) the Duncanville team as one lacking chemistry at the end of the season and broken up by individuals playing selfishly to support their growing egos. Shawn Williams thinks that the success of their state title went to their collective heads:

After we won, things changed. I'm kind of glad it's over and I'm ready to get to Texas.

Duncanville coach Phil McNeely also had enough, retiring following the season after 31 years as a high school coach, including the last 25 at Duncanville. In his final statements as coach, he said that there were no negatives, but can the timing really be a coincidence? Was the fractured 2009 team enough to drive him from coaching?

It's hard to ascertain the answers to these questions and the truth may never be known, unless someone close to the program has inside information. However, it does have significance to the Longhorn basketball team next year. Coming from such a talented team was supposed to be a benefit for Shawn Williams, helping him learn how to play a role on an excellent basketball, how to share the spotlight and avoid the me-first mentality so many former high school stars must shed at the college level. Hamilton calls Williams "unselfish," ostensibly relieving him of blame for the disappointing end to the season, but now the question is how much he learned about what not to do.

Whatever those lessons may be, Williams is working hard in the off season with the intention of contributing to a deep team in 2009-10:

I'm tying to get ready. I'm lifting weights on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday I go to work out with a guy that works out LaMarcus Aldridge and Chris Bosh in the offseason. I'm really working on my ball handling and explosiveness. I think handling the ball is number one for me. Being able to go by people off the dribble is big for me because I have to be guarded.

Despite what some readers may believe, ball handling has some long an area needing serious improvement for Williams, who needs little work on his pure shooting form. The other question for Wiliams is the health of his left ankle, which he has continually tweaked over the last few seasons. Named the DMN Player of the Year, Williams averaged 20.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and made more than 80 three pointers on the season, including a 44-point outburst against South Grand Prairie in February.

Despite Hamilton's comment about Williams being unselfish, there have been some doubters over the years:

Spectators said Williams played in slow motion, almost as if he appeared not to be trying. They thought he wasn't a factor when he was on the court. Some even had the nerve to question his work ethic and why he was heavily recruited.

According to McNeely, Williams gave the impression of not trying because the game came so easily to him -- he's just one of those fluid players, giving max effort without appearing like it. For his part, Williams has heard the criticism and brushes it off:

I always heard stuff like that. Most of those people don't even know me. The ones who were around me and were at practice with me, they knew better.

Ultimately, Rick Barnes and his staff had the final say about their opinion of Williams' work ethic, giving their approval by their offer. So, after a trying season of discontent, Williams will step onto campus in June, finally a Longhorn.

Dorsey trip not a sign of open recruitment. Ever reactionary, Texas message boards buzzed over the weekend about 2010 defensive tackle commit Ashton Dorsey's apperance in College Station for the Aggie Maroon & White game. Turns out there is nothing to fear ($), as Dorsey made the trip simply to spend time with his older brother Adren, a redshirt freshman defensive tackle and calls Texas ($) "the greatest school in the United States."

Dorsey will be back on the 40 Acres for a June camp and is working hard to prepare for spring practice. Working on his strength and speed are priorities, Dorsey says, as he works out, runs ladder drills, and tries to increase his speed and strength using tires and parachutes.

Hamilton on Hamilton. Since I haven't had the chance to watch Saturday's Jordan Brand Classic and don't have much of an inclination after seeing the effort put forth by most participants, Gerry Hamilton has kindly filled in the blanks about Jordan Hamilton ($):

Hamilton came off the bench for the Black Team and wasted little time getting up his first shot as a senior hoisting up a 25-footer, which was a miss. Hamilton scored his first basket on an uncontested layup and then converted a 25-footer from the top of the key for his five first half points while shooting 2-6.

As has been the case many times watching Hamilton, his all-around play is underrated and was impressive. Because of his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays for others, the 6-7.5 wing is a threat in transition after snatching a rebound. Hamilton takes away the need for an outlet pass and immediately pushes the ball without the need of an outlet pass.

Hamilton made a couple of nifty lob passes for dunks as well as grabbing four rebounds in the first half.

The #13 prospect in the 2009 class got the start in the second half and immediately hit a 22-foot three from the right wing, but would miss on his next three long range attempts as well as a forced, tough 12-footer off the dribble. Hamilton pulled down two more rebounds and made two more impressive passes in traffic for assists.

Hamilton also got down in a defensive stance when guarding on the perimeter and attempted use his length to cause deflections.

On the night, Hamilton hit 3-10 from the field and 2-6 from three for eight points to go with six rebounds and four assists.

Hamilton will have to work on shot selection at times as he is too quick to settle for the 24-footers. Don't expect to see Hamilton hoisting the ball from 25 feet at Texas often.

Shot selection will probably be an issue early on for Hamilton, as he has a quick trigger and is known as a scorer, but players normally learn quickly about which shots Rick Barnes does and does not tolerate -- receiving a fast hook on several occasions generally accelerates the learning curve.

On the positive side, Hamilton's willingness to pass the ball in a me-first game reflects well on his ability to make plays for his teammates and any effort on the defensive end is impressive in such a game. Gerry mentions Jordan's ability to lead in transition (a skill lost not possessed by Damion James) will greatly aid the Longhorn transition game and relieve pressure on the half-court offense. Jordan Hamilton and Avery Bradley leading the break should be a beautiful sight to behold next season.

Has the light come on for Vince? It's premature to label Vince Young's NFL career a bust, but the time of judgment is rapidly approaching. Another season sulking on the Titans bench behind the aging Kerry Collins might be enough to end Young's career in Tennessee and send him looking for a job and final shot at redemption. For his part, Young is saying the right things in the off season:

I am just going to keep my mouth closed, man. All I am doing this year is shutting up, just shutting up and working. I am going to smile and shut up and continue being Vince Young, a happy smiling guy. I am not going to get into the hoopla any more because of the fact I can't win any more, I see.

I am just going to shut my mouth and play my role and if they need me then I will be available as a weapon.

Whether that talk becomes anything more than that during the season remains to be seen, but Young's sideline demeanor is in desperate need of a makeover. Known for having a thin skin, Young needs to move past his desire to shut down emotionally when life doesn't work out as planned and put in the time and effort watching film and throwing with his teammates to succeed. Turns out taking the NFL by storm isn't as easy as you thought, Vince.

From the Land of Miscellany. Sherrod Harris, Blake Gideon, and Jared Norton all had minor surgeries, but should be ready for fall practice...The Aggies finally won something...Austin Wood was named Big 12 Pitcher of the Week after recording three saves...Eddie Johnson, 2010 wide receiver from Midlothian and one-time possible Texas target, gave his verbal commitment to Baylor...Sergio Kindle is the 13th-ranked player in the Big 12 by Tim Griffin.

Recruiting Spotlight: Tariq Allen

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:00:08 -0000

With Signing Day rapidly approaching and the great majority of the Longhorns' 2009 class already committed, it's time to look at each individual prospect.

Vitals

Name: Tariq Allen

Position: Linebacker

Height: 6-2

Weight: 231

Speed: 4.63 forty-yard dash

High School: Irving Macarthur School

Rating (Rivals): Four out of five

Strengths

Despite being listed as an inside linebacker on his Rivals page, Allen projects as a true middle linebacker in college -- a downhill linebacker ($) with the ability to knock the absolute slobber out of running backs coming through the hole or tight ends in the flat, as he did in the Army All-American game. With a strong and thick body, Allen looks the part of an extremely physical presence, combining that strength with short-range explosiveness. Unlike most high school players coming into college, Allen physically looks like he's ready to step on the field and contribute, suggesting that his strength training work will focus on maximizing his speed to the greatest extent possible.

Allen's size can sometimes be deceptive, as he moves well laterally and with a fluidity unusual for someone of his size and one of the reasons Allen is such a highly regarded prospect. As a tackler, Allen shows great form, wrapping up opposing players and using his legs to drive them backwards and into the ground, a practice that severely limits second efforts and additional yards after contact -- Allen would have been at home tackling Beanie Wells in the Fiesta Bowl and would make a great Big 10 linebacker. The production as a tackler on the high school level ($) is there, as Allen notched 122 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, four quarterback hurries, four sacks, and a fumble forced and one recovered as a senior, one fewer tackle than he did his junior season.

Will Muschamp loves linebackers that can blitz and get to the quarterback, with some talk of even using Keenan Robinson in the Buck Package next year, reprising the role developed for Sergio Kindle this season. Allen fits into that mold with significant blitzing experience in high school and the speed/strength combination Muschamp covets. The Irving Macarthur product could well be the next Buck Package linebacker for Texas.

Weaknesses

The question about Allen is his place in the current Big 12. Jared Norton is a very similar player to Allen, with both larger, physical middle linebackers. However, Norton struggled in his first season of significant playing time, often lacking the speed to cover skill position players in space. Like Norton, Allen lacks true sideline to sideline range -- Derrick Johnson he is not.

Despite his lateral quickness and fluidity diagnosing and reacting to running plays, Allen doesn't display the same fluidity in his hips in pass coverage, often finding himself flat-footed, a recipe for big plays. In fact, Allen looks stiff at times, even in pursuit of running plays, struggling with changing direction, In this sense, it's imperative that Allen doesn't add too much weight in college and further limit his foot speed and lateral quickness.

Given his size and strength, Allen rarely had to deal with blockers who could overpower him in high school, leaving his ability to shed blockers underdeveloped and the technical aspect of his game Allen most needs to correct and improve upon. Often Allen struggles when dealing with offensive lineman because he plays too straight up, failing to use his strong legs to help his efforts. Once again, Allen is another player who will grow quickly when the technical aspects of his game improve with good coaching in college.

Verdict

In questioning Allen's eventual role in the defense, it's not to say that Allen lacks the proper skill set to find success at Texas, it's rather to say that his role may be more situational than every-down. That is, unless Mad Dog can pull a miracle and increase Allen's speed in his first several years in the program. Beyond that, Allen projects as a pure run-stuffer -- in other words, a two-down linebacker at the college level. In that sense, Allen is a little bit like a young Sergio Kindle, a player capable of playing downhill, but uncomfortable in space, though Allen seems more advanced in his pass-covering ability than Kindle, who never backpedaled in high school. Of course, Allen can expand his role to a third-down linebacker, but Muschamp will probably use him as a pass-rusher on third down if Allen shows the same aptitude for getting to the quarterback in college he did in high school.

It could be possible that if Allen starts gaining weight when he gets into the strength training program at Texas, he could spin down to the defensive end position, though there hasn't been any public discussion of him doing so and Allen doesn't seem to have the room on his frame to grow that other players in the class possess. Basically, the comment is simply an exercise in remote speculation, but does seem worth mentioning.

In terms of contributing early, Allen could see time as a freshman backing up Jared Norton and projects to take over his job when Norton graduates after the 2009 season. As an early enrollee, Allen will help his cause by being able to participate in spring practice and should benefit by not having any direct competition at his linebacker position in this class, as Patrick Nkwopara projects as an outside linebacker or rover/linebacker hybrid.