SB Nation - Montre Webber

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Searching For Six -- The Wide Receiver Position Battle, Part II

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 16:09:13 -0000

The Wildcard

John Chiles – Garrett Gilbert’s commitment to Texas in February 2008 did more than secure the Longhorns’ quarterback position for years -- it also put the writing on the wall for John Chiles at the quarterback position. In essence, it was the beginning of the end. Though it took Chiles nearly a year to accept the necessity of his unavoidable move to receiver, he finally experienced his overdue epiphany the week before the start of spring practice, informing coaches that he was willing to move to receiver full time.

Unfortunately for Chiles, the receiving corps is the most crowded group on the roster, with 12 players competing for the six spots in the rotation. As described by Greg Davis, Chiles was in quarterback shape entering spring practice, but not in receiver shape, leading him to give up fast food and late-night snacks to lose weight and drop nearly 10 pounds since the start of spring practice, with the goal of losing another five or so.

His previous experience playing quarterback at Texas and receiver in high school has helped quicken the transition for Chiles, though he was not able to show off his progress during the Spring Game, as he did not have any passes thrown in his direction and Colt McCoy often did not even seem to look to Chiles’ side of the field at all. It may be that Chiles and McCoy need more time to develop chemistry during the summer. The most disappointing aspect of Chiles not catching any pases during the game was that he did not have an opportunity to support Greg Davis' assertion that Chiles can make opponents miss in the screen game, an ability that he did not show at quarterback or in the aborted Q Package.

There was some speculation early after the move that Chiles could use his redshirt season in an effort to distance himself from the other junior receivers (Collins, Kirkendoll, Webber, and Payne) and refine his receiving skills. Mack Brown, however, is increasing unwilling to allow players to redshirt who can contribute, making it extremely unlikely that Chiles would redshirt, especially given that he has impressed coaches at the new position. Currently, having received significant playing time with the first unit in the Spring Game, all signs point to Chiles being in the six-man receiving rotation in the fall.

Though he will have relatively little practice time to refine his receiving skills, his junior season will be a defining one for Chiles. Can he finally live up to the monumental expectations that accompanied him to the 40 Acres? One apt comparison might be Sergio Kindle, who struggled during his first two seasons out of position, then exploded onto the national scene with a spectacular sophomore season. Longhorn Nation asks you this, John Chiles: How would you like to define your legacy at Texas?

The Wait-Your-Turn Crew

DeSean Hales – "The Run" was perhaps the most recognizable highlight from the 2008 recruiting class, leaving Texas football fans drooling for the diminutive Hales and his big-play possibilities. After a redshirt freshman season, Hales is undoubtedly closer to contributing, though the rotation in front of him and his continued adjustment to running routes inside and across the middle suggests that he will see only limited playing time in 2009 as he remains outside of the six-man rotation.

Desean Hales 71 yard TD run vs Klein Forest 2007 (via sessamoid)

However, with so many potential blow outs in the early part of the season, Hales may see important reps on the field, most likely a situational look in the I formation, providing a threat coming in motion on the end around, a play the Longhorns showed repeatedly during the Spring Game.

The most likely scenario for Hales is that he plays a little in blowouts for his first two seasons before stepping into a starting role as a redshirt junior in the year after John Chiles, Brandon Collins, and James Kirkendoll graduate.

Brock Fitzhenry – Set back by a hamstring injury suffered late in spring practice, Fitzhenry missed the important opportunity to see the field in the Spring Game. In addition, the loss of reps from practice could keep him from seeing the field for another season.

Fitzhenry seemed likely to battle with DeSean Hales for playing time, but the word out of the program now is that Hales is playing in the slot, while Fitzhenry has been talked about at Jordan Shipley’s flanker position that receives the majority of screen passes in the Longhorn offense. His ability in the screen game will be the skill that gives Fitzhenry the best chance to see the field in 2009 and in the future.

DJ Monroe – For young receivers, repetitions are everything – necessary to develop a comfort level with the quarterback, develop route-running abilities, or learn to make tough catches in traffic. As a result, the time missed by Monroe this spring to focus on his academics will set him back significantly.

Whatever setback he experiences, though, will remain a secondary concern to that of his grades – if Monroe doesn’t turn his academic situation around this spring, he will never see the field at Texas and potentially waste his prodigious playmaking talent.

Greg Timmons – Most famous (infamous?) for his since-departed high-top fade, Timmons has the size to play in the controlled passing game Texas employs, but repetitions will be hard to come by in fall practice and Timmons did not enroll in the spring to get a head start at the position. Timmons probably won’t get a chance to see the field for any significant number of snaps until at least 2010, though it could be 2011 when he really gets a chance, after Brandon Collins and James Kirkendoll graduate. Most likely is that Timmons redshirts for a season before competing for Jordan Shipley's vacated spot in the rotation as a redshirt freshman.

The Don’t-Let-The-Door-Hit-You-On-The-Way-Out, Not-So-Dynamic Duo

Montre Webber – You will always have the Lightning Package from 2007. Why are you still here, again?

Phillip Payne – Good luck at your next stop. Texas needs your scholarship and you need a chance to play. Win-win.

It's likely that one or both of Payne and Webber will leave the program in the spring, though it's surprising that neither one left before the start of spring practice. It's clear that neither one will ever see the field for significant playing time at Texas and the Longhorns could use their scholarships.Good luck on your next stops, fellas.

Morning Coffee Gets Loquacious

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 12:00:09 -0000

The Pittman Paradox. In the edition of Morning Coffee I wrote last week, one of the items included the statement that Dexter PIttman had slowly but surely become an integral part of the Texas offense. And some of the number certainly supported that assertion, as the Longhorns played well and won when Pittman played efficiently, and lost games in which Pittman played inefficiently.

However, the changes Rick Barnes made in the offense last week leading up to the Tech game seemed to render my prior observations irrelevant. Pittman played all of one minute in the game, throwing up an ill-advised hook shot that fell short after failing to pass out of a double team. The issue for the offense with Pittman is one of spacing. With the Texas guards outside of AJ Abrams shooting poorly, teams are free to collapse into the lane defensively, disrupting driving and passing lanes. Pittman is a large part of that problem, often camping on one block or the other and limiting ball and player movement in the half court.

So what is the solution? Not playing Pittman at all isn't a long-term options, which is a waste of his prodigious talent. The first issue revolves around match ups. Against a team with little in the way of an inside presence in Texas Tech, it didn't make sense to play Pittman in a game where he isn't needed defensively. Playing against Blake Griffin last week, Pittman demonstrated that he can play effective post defense when moving his feet and staying away from bad fouls. Expect Rick Barnes to play Pittman against teams like the Aggies, who have two talented interior players in Bryan Davis and Junior Elonu.

The talk about match ups fails to answer the question about how to involve Pittman in the offense without stagnation. Answering that question involves using Pittman in more ways in the offense. Basically, instead of Pittman camping on one block and then moving to the other block, Barnes needs to involve Pittman in more pick and roll situations, particularly with AJ Abrams and Damion James, setting picks for Abrams when he's gone a stretch without getting a good look at the basket and setting picks for James to open up driving lanes. Using Pittman to set screens unclogs passing and cutting lanes, while also increasing his ability to flash to the basket, though Pittman on the move could create more opportunities to pick up offensive fouls.

Barnes must also be more selective in the players he puts on the court with Pittman. Playing the 4-out-1-in offense to get Pittman easy looks close to the basket makes an incredible amount of sense for a struggling offense, but the problem is being able to space the floor with shooters. Not exactly an easy task with this roster. Therefore, only one of the group of Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, and Varez Ward should be on the floor with Pittman at the same time. The other players should be James, Abrams, and Connor Atchley to maintain spacing, with the possibility of using Gary Johnson because has some ability to hit outside jumpers.

At the same time, Pittman needs to be more aware and willing to pass out of double teams to facilitate ball movement and open shots. With his strong hands and wide body, Pittman often feels that he can power through double teams instead of making the proper read and pass, an area in which he needs to quickly improve.

Another 2009 offer. With basically no warning other than speculation about the likely impending transfers of Montre Webber and Philip Payne, the Longhorns extended an offer to Texas High School's Cobi Hamilton, a 6-3.5, 200-pound wide receiver whose nickname apparently is "Bootz." Arkansas is the current favorite for Hamilton because both his parents are Razorbacks ($) and Hamilton played with Ryan Mallett in high school, who will be eligible next season after sitting out a year after transferring from Michigan, with Oklahoma State also in the running for Hamilton. Arkansas had an in-home visit with Hamilton on Monday night. The good news for Texas fans is that Hamilton just confirmed that he will be taking an official visit to Austin ($) next weekend and will not visit Auburn, as planned before his Texas offer, likely eliminating them from consideration. Hamilton had already taken four of his official visits and only had one remaining.

The offer to Hamilton was only extended because the Texas coaching staff thinks there are impending transfers, probably Webber and/or Payne, and DJ Monroe may not do well enough in school this semester to be with the team in the fall. Hamilton's status will not affect the number of wide receivers Texas will take in the 2010 class, probably three or four, as there is a lot of depth at the wide receiver position next year.

As far as whether or not Hamilton is necessary to this class is hard to say. There are a ton of wide receivers currently on campus, with it hard to imagine that players like Brock Fitzhenry will ever see playing time. Texas coaches probably could stand pat at this point and not offer another receiver in the class, but they must see something that they really like from Hamilton.

What they see is likely his combination of speed, size, and production. While there isn't any publicly available film on Hamilton and his film in general ($) is limited, he looks faster than his 4.56 40 (looking much like Malcolm Wiliams), accelerating quickly. Hamilton also looks to have the ability to make tough catches in traffic and over the middle, though he doesn't seem to have the incredible feet and elusiveness that would make him more than a three-star prospect. Good hands and leaping ability (36-inch vertical) are also assets for Hamilton, though his route running is raw. With only two other receivers on campus next year taller than Hamilton (not including Webber) -- Williams and Dan Buckner -- Hamilton's greatest asset to Texas may be his size. Hamilton's production ($) is nothing to scoff at and is belied by his three stars: 64 catches for 1,071 yards and 14 touchdowns, an average of 16.7 yards per catch, numbers achieved despite facing constant double coverage. Those numbers increased significantly from his junior season, when he caught 29 passes for 726 yards and seven touchdowns, though his average of 25 (!) yards per catch was higher as a junior.

Since the offer is already extended, that only leaves the question about whether Hamilton will commit. Arkansas still seems to be in the lead, as they have been throughout most of the process, but if Hamilton's surprise ($) when notified by his coach of the offer means anything, the Longhorns are vaulting to at least near the front of his consideration, with Hamilton saying, "It's every kid's dream to go to Texas."

Junior day will draw out-of-state talent. With the recruiting gurus predicting a Longhorn shut-out in the recruitments of Devon Kennard, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Jarvis Jones and high-profile failures like Darrell Scott, Longhorn fans are noticeably reticent to get excited about out-of-state prospects. However, that could change for 2010, as the Longhorns are inviting three out-of-state prospects to the February 8 Junior Day, including West Chester, OH linebacker Jordan Hicks, Tulsa, OK wide receiver/athlete Demarco Cobbs, and Thibodaux, LA wide receiver Trovon Reed.

Will Muschamp will be visiting the 6-2, 210-pound Hicks in Ohio today to watch him play basketball. A big-time national recruit with interest from nearly all the major programs, Hicks runs a 40 in the 4.5s and has been a Texas fan for a long time ($), wearing Texas hats around his high school and paying his own way to a Texas camp last summer, putting the Longhorns squarely in his early top four, with Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia in the mix as well. As a player ($), Hicks shows sideline to sideline range at his outside linebacker position, along with a great nose for the football, diagnosing plays and shedding blocks, while needing work on his coverage skills.

The 6-0, 175-pound Reed excels at multiple positions ($) in high school, playing quarterback, wide receiver, and running back, leading his team in each of the three categories, accounting for 1,748 yards and 21 touchdowns. Reed was one of the fastest players at the combine held in San Antonio before Army All-American game, running a 4.5 on a slow track and recording a vertical leap between 37 and 42 inches (measurements varied). Reed is also a track star for his high school, running the 200, 4 x 100, and 4 x 200. Reed is not planning to announce his decision until lack in the recruiting process. Sounds like a versatile Percy Harvin type.

Poor Aggies. Not too long ago, Stony Point defensive end Tevin Mims was in the midst of bursting onto the college football recruiting scene with dominant performances during his senior season. They were golden days for Texas A&M and TCU, the leaders in the battle to secure Mims' services. That all changed when Texas started showing interest, culminating in a commitment on Sunday morning ($) that felt completely anti-climactic after weeks of speculation that he would commit if offered.

Perhaps no other anecdote so clearly defines the gaping chasm that currently exists in the world of recruiting between Texas and Texas A&M. Where the Aggies sit and pray during recruiting season that Texas won't offer their targets and that those targets play well, but not too well during their senior seasons, Texas selects the players they want early in the process, then swoops in on rising seniors between the end of their football season and signing day, frustrating smaller schools and amusing the Longhorn fan base.

And that's a problem for the Aggies. Still holding aspiration of South Division dominance and "high expectations," the Aggies currently find themselves in a dogfight with Baylor for recruits and the position just out of the cellar in the division. Incapable of competing for recruits with Texas, the Aggies have to find some other way to gain an edge. With the additions of Major Applewhite and Will Muschamp to the Texas staff over the last year, any strategic advantage seems as far-fetched as the Aggies stealing any recruits from under Bevo's nose. Poor Aggies.

Kabongo speaks. In his first interview ($) since committing to the Longhorns on January 12, Myck Kabongo talks about the reasons he chose Texas over other schools:

I just built a great relationship with the Texas coaches. I didn't feel the same relationship with all of the coaches I spoke with. My relationship with Coach Barnes is great, Coach Terry and strength and conditioning coach Todd Wright. Coach Wright is known for getting players bodies ready for the college and pro game and that is where I want to be. What Texas has done with point guards in the past helping get them to the next level was attractive to me. I want to be the next one at Texas.

Kabongo also said that friend Tristan Thompson's commitment to the Longhorns wasn't the only reason he chose Texas, saying that he would have felt comfortable and picked Texas even if Thompson hadn't.

Showing a trait common to all great players, Kabongo is ready and willing to focus on improving his game:

I want to improve my defense. We (St. Bendict Prep) always preach defense and playing defense wins games. I'm doing alright right now, but I want to get better and be able to hold down a man to ten points or pressure the ball. Really, I think I have to work on everything as nothing is perfect about my game.

With his work ethic, personal awareness, and high basketball IQ, Kabongo should blossom into an even better defender than he already is, aided by his 6-6 wingspan. Under coach Dan Hurley, brother of Bobby, the former Duke basketball player, and son of Bob, a high school basketball coach with more than 800 victories and 21 state championships on his resume, Kabongo will receive coaching as good as that received at any high school in the country, the perfect preparation for contributing early as a Longhorn.

Morning Coffee Is All Over The Place

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:32:14 -0000

It's all because of Muschamp. Well, maybe not all of it. But rest assured that Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston deciding to return for their senior seasons has more to do with Muschamp ($) than any other football factors. Sure, Kindle and Houston will both earn their degrees next fall, with Houston the first of his four siblings to get a college degree, and Kindle wants to graduate to get his T-ring. Additionally, Brian Orakpo passed on his leadership role on the defense to Kindle and Houston and expects them to step up and take over the team next year. Hey, as big as Kindle and Houston are, even they don't want a disappointed Orakop coming around and asking them to explain failure.

In the end, money was an important factor, and Muschamp fits into that equation because he's the one who is going to scheme them to success and the fortune to follow. Here's Muschamp's sales pitch, according to Kindle:

Basically, he just laid out the numbers I can make this year compared to next year. He talked about the schemes for next year, and the possibility for our team to get to the Big 12 championship and the national championship with the players that we have coming back.

In terms of roles, Muschamp says that Kindle will get more work at the defensive end position in the spring because of the lack of depth there. After being unable to participate in offseason workouts last year, Kindle says the "sky is the limit" for what he can accomplish through hard work during the spring and summer leading up to his senior year. For Houston, he will have another year of experience and strength training at defensive tackle, and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him for most of his junior season, expect big things from him as well.

Devon Kennard set back in decision-making process. With former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt leaving for Washington, the promotion of Rocky Seto to defensive coordinator and the hiring of Jethro Franklin as defensive line coach, defensive end Devon Kennard is stepping back from the process to re-evaluate ($), pushing his decision likely back to Signing Day. A commitment to USC seemed imminent in the recent weeks, but if Darrell Scott is any evidence, the new position coach could tilt the scales in favor of the Longhorns. Could, that is, but may not, since Franklin is a long-time friend of Kennard's father, Derek, a former offensive lineman for the Saints. Also in Franklin's favor is his recent experience in the NFL, coaching defensive lineman for the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though he was fired from both jobs.

Of course, family connections played a key role in Scott's eventual commitment to Colorado, so maybe this situation doesn't end up favoring the Longhorns in the end at all. Some Longhorn fans are distressed about Kennard taking his in-home visit from Pete Caroll during the Fiesta Bowl, but Kennard says he recorded the game to watch it later and has seen Texas play and practice already. At least Texas fan are used to bad news leading up to and on Signing Day.

Transfer season is upon us. Despite rumors of an impending transfer, DJ Monroe plans to enroll for the spring semester in attempts to become eligible for football season next year. John Chiles and Mack Brown spoke, with Chiles deciding he wants to stay full-time at quarterback, where he will get all his reps in spring and fall practice. Rumors about Sherrod Harris leaving persisted for the second year in a row because of the logjam at quarterback, but Harris is reportedly staying in the program ($) as well after discussing the situation with his family. Defensively, there isn't as much depth, so the likely transfer candidates are all on the offensive side of the ball, unless you think Ben Wells might want out after getting little playing time, but that seems unlikely, since he and Christian Scott will compete for Blake Gideon's position.

That leaves crowded depth charts at the following positions on offense: Running back, wide receiver, tight end, and guard. There will be eight players competing for the two guard spots next season, although Britt Mitchell was worked some at short-yardage tight end, a position he may continue to work out next year with the graduation of Peter Ullman. Expect one player to leave from that position.

There will be seven scholarship running backs next season, including Antwan Cobb, who's more of a fullback by trade. Mostly likely to leave is Tre' Newton, although he received some buzz from coaches in the workouts leading up to the Fiesta Bowl, perhaps making Jeremy Hills a more likely candidate to transfer. Vondrell McGee didn't play at all in the Fiesta Bowl, so he may be considering his options, since Chris Whaley could cut into his playing time.

Eight scholarship players occupy the tight end position, although movement there is likely. Greg Smith will probably return to working at center or guard, but might continue in a short-yardage tight end role with Britt Mitchell. Ahmard Howard was moved from defensive end after the injuries during fall practice and is a candidate to move back. Trey Graham will probably redshirt, but that could mean that Ian Harris or Josh Marshall decide to move on after finding themselves on the outside looking in. Blaine Irby might not be able to play next year, though, which decreases the pressure on Harris and Marshall to assess their place in the program until after next year.

Wide receiver is the most likely position to see attrition, and soon. There are 11 (!) wide receivers who will be on scholarship next season, a number that seems way too high. Montre Webber and Philip Payne are the two players who have been passed on the depth chart by younger guys and have only seen limited action the last two years playing on the same unit as John Chiles. Neither of them are likely to ever start or find themselves in the rotation for Texas and are probably best served by finding somewhere they can play. The other player on the outside looking in is probably Brock Fitzhenry, who has the speed to enter consideration as a player who might end up being productive, but with Desean Hales competing for playing time at the same position and in the same class, Fitzhenry doesn't look like he will ever play at Texas, making him a possible candidate as well.

All in all, none of the possible defections I mentioned would cripple or even set back the Texas football program, so there is nothing in particular to worry about or obsess over in terms of potential transfers.

Mims update. Stony Point defensive end Tevin Mims will take his official visit to the Texas campus this weekend, where he will likely receive his scholarship offer. All indications are that Mims will probably commit on the spot, but he has not received his offer yet and despite some rumors, has not yet committed.