SB Nation - Sherrod Harris

Final Open Practice Report

Horn Brain — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 05:16:29 -0000

Yes, you read that right... Horn Brain is back, dear followers, after a long exile in the desert of S*** I have to do - launching rockets and writing computer models and healing my broken freakin' leg. I understand that there's a lot of catching up to do - how are the kids? The wife? Oh, I'm sorry to hear... Really? But isn't that more than half of-? Oh, I see... Oh... I never thought of her as one of those... A crying shame, no doubt - but I'll dispense with the pleasantries and distend my lips toward the mouth of an open bottle of Shiner, that I may better cut to the chase and the bone with my oh-so-lightly edited musings on tonight's final open practice...

While much of the Great Gnashing of Teeth and Spitting Whilst Speaking of the Summer of 2009 was directed towards our lack of depth at the defensive tackle position (and more recently at the fact that anyone who shows promise at the TE position will immediately and with extreme prejudice be cut down for the season with an acrimoniously-timed knee injury), I have maintained the position that, for Texas to become immune to "that one game" in which all passing game players will perform with the grace of the guy who played Newman on Seinfeld when he's running from that dilophosaurus after it spits in his eye on Jurassic Park, the offensive line must learn to execute a blocking scheme which, in some form or fashion, allows for holes to open up. A hole being defined as a space on the field which no one but the ball carrier is allowed to occupy, which is oriented in such a way that the carrier may proceed through that space while not a.) being on the ground or b.) being in two pieces.

So off I went, hobbling down to the fields in the shadow of the Great Bubble, in search of men who could open holes at will (The Michael Scott in you is just bubbling over right now)...

... But instead I found the same lip service paid to the running game as we'd seen last season. I say last season and not last year because we actually appeared to put more emphasis on the running game in last year's open practices. I remember last year we were able to bust holes occasionally through a defensive line that by the end of the year played like a brick wall mounted to the grill of a speeding Mack truck. Well, the cornerstones and foundation of that wall graduated and now our "experienced" offensive line can't put a dent in it.

Certainly if anything is proven by the disparity in success between last year's open practice and the production on the field it's that open practice is just open practice, but nonetheless, color me a deep shade of unimpressed when it comes to our offensive line play in the running game. Every significant gain was on a sweep, speed option, or otherwise outside run, while the middle may as well have been a heavily forested mud flat for all the chaos exhibited there. A final note, though: Call me a hater, but I'm only saying this because I think that it needs to be said. One area Mack Brown's almost always excelled in is redirecting critical statements into motivation for his players. I'm thinking Vince Young after 2004 OU, Colt McCoy between 2007 and 2008, Jamaal Charles in the second half of 2007, Brian Orakpo, Roy Miller, and the Texas defense of 2008, heck, even all the way back to the 1998 team that wasn't supposed to be good enough to help Ricky Williams win the Heisman. I may be pessimistic, but really I'm just filling up the O-Line's Water Boy mental vault of enraging memories to help them focus on knocking the snot out of the Sooner DL in October. Respect.

Rapid Fire thoughts on tonight's practice -OR- I use bullets in place of writing more BS:

I was disappointed that I didn't get to see much of the linemen on either side of the ball. The DL mostly did their thing down at the far end of the lower field, while the OL held a ballet recital in a corner of the upper field that didn't lend their pliets and pirrouettes to much critique. The receivers hung out in prime view, and that's mostly what I got to see, though that's been beaten to a pulp on every site recently.
In what little action I saw of the OL drills, David Snow looked much smoother and better equilibrated than his counterparts on the second team. I like this guy. It's unfortunate that everyone else does as well and it will appear as though I'm riding the bandwagon because I can't evaluate an OL for beans, but no... I really like him.
Sherrod Harris looked to be the clear second-string QB, which I gathered mostly from his occasional work with the first string and not ever having to throw into a herd of walk-ons in the middle of the field. Garrett Gilbert handled those duties almost exclusively.
On the other hand... Gilbert throws the prettiest spiral of all the QBs. It's like the ball is on a zip-line, and it must be so easy to catch. That said, he needs to work on his accuracy. Hopefully he earns some PT this year so we don't have to choose between throwing him to the wolves and wasting another year of his development. Interesting note: Gilbert tossed an awkward ball to either Chris Whaley or Tre Newton (memory fails me) and none other than the "running backs coach" was within 2 feet of him telling him exactly what he did wrong on that particular attempt. Applewhite FTW.
There are two groups of receivers. One includes guys like Jordan Shipley, the other includes someone named Ryan Zych. DeSean Hales, DJ Monroe, and Marquise Goodwin were on the latter. Calm down about them.
Of the newer receivers, the guy who had the best night was clearly Greg Timmons. He showed real ball skills in making a couple of "Are You Serious?" catches - one of which appeared to involve the ball passing through the chest of a DB. He actually appeared to have the best hands of any of our receivers in "contested situations" tonight.
Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner are both just huge. Buckner was lining up at the flex tight end position vacated by DJ Grant's cursed knee, and Malcolm took over the split end, of course. This arrangement looked beautiful until you saw them slapping balls around like a drunken Matthew McConnaughey in his trailer. Buckner had a few "hit-him-in-the-chest" drops, while Williams was consistent in both beating his man down the field as well as coming impossibly close to catching the ball without ever actually managing to do so. I think that it could be mostly rust, though, and Coach Kennedy seemed willing to take care of the butterfingers one way or another.
Fozzy Whittaker was taking drill reps with the receivers. This excites me, as it alludes to the possibility of defining Fozzy's role as Ogbonnaya with wheels. He looked natural catching the ball.
I think the reason that some people were so high on Kirkendoll over Collins in yesterday's practice may have been that Earl Thomas flat out picks on Collins. Earl always seemed to be assigned to #5, and managed to make a very nice interception on a deep ball that goes for 35+ yards if he doesn't turn around and adjust. Earl and Brandon thereafter spent the night jawing at each other after each play they made on their rival. Collins had a few good catches, but Thomas is just too damn good for him. I really thought that Chykie or AJ Williams would be our best DB by this time, but Earl is just so quick and fast, and now he gets it. Any QB that throws the ball in his direction is just begging to lose their starting job.
I didn't see Beasley at all. Was he held out today? I was hoping to see him running around trying to decapitate fools now that he realizes he won't play if he doesn't want to hit. Did anyone see him?
Alex Okafor lined up on the line of scrimmage, but way out wide over the top of a slot receiver, whom he promptly tried to shove all the way to the boundary on the snap. Maybe Muschamp will get him on the field as an LB since he's pretty undersized for a DE right now. What little I saw of him looked like the hype: He's an athletic guy with a huge motor that really just tries very hard to make a difference in each play. I look forward to his growth.

So there it is.

Wednesday Practice Report

Peter Bean — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 07:19:04 -0000

While I was tied up here in California doing EDSBS LIVE, the Longhorns were busy in Austin practicing in front of fans. An old friend was nice enough to give me a call after the practice and share with me his thoughts. After the jump, I'll share with you the notes I took from our conversation. I wasn't there, but this is from someone whose judgment I value; I'd certainly be interested to hear the thoughts from others who made it out to DKR.

"This is the 12th straight year I've gone to open fall practices and I'm more excited about this team than I have been any team in memory -- even the 2005 team. Maybe because we'd lost five straight to OU back then, I was afraid to believe. I believe in this team already."
"It looked to me like DJ Grant had his leg catch on the ground while he took a little pop from Earl Thomas. The body went one way while the leg stayed still. I suspect the knee popped, but who knows. We can hope it was just a strain."
"Everyone around me was impressed by Barrett Matthews. Texas isn't going to have an all-conference guy like Pettigrew out there, but we don't need one. We just need someone to keep defenses honest. Matthews' athleticism and versatility surprised me. I'm hopeful he can fill the role we need in the passing game."
"For all Colt's summer gushing about Brandon Collins, it was James Kirkendoll who looked like his new BFF. At least tonight. I've seen enough of these not to read too much into the small sample, but I like that we have some competition for the Quan Cosby role."
"The #2 QB battle is more interesting than I thought it would be. Sherrod Harris looked 100% healthy to me, which is great, but I was pretty wowed by what it looks like Garrett Gilbert will become -- and quickly. It's an interesting short-, medium-, and long-term strategy problem for the coaches to ponder. I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how you'd handle it." [PB: I'll devote a post to this, but I'd get Gilbert going now. There are good arguments on both sides, though. More later.]
"I'm with you on thinking Vondrell McGee can be a successful tailback for this team. Guy is solid in all the right ways, and more explosive than people realize. Like you, I think he's the nominal starter. Anything we get from Fozzy Whittaker is a bonus. He's intriguing, but he may need more space than our offense creates. We'll see."
Asking about Colt and any other receivers he noticed: "McCoy is sharp, but what I really love is watching him lead the team. You need that to win 12 straight games. He's a man out there. As for receivers, I don't have much more to add. I like our depth and think the group will produce more than enough playmakers. Malcolm Williams is close, real close. He's not thinking with the ball in his hands anymore, which is huge. The new burner -- Marquise Goodwin -- can play ball. Neither DJ Monroe nor DeSean Hales looks ready to be a regular contributor; both are a year away."
"The defense showed a lot of different looks, including a bunch of sets from the 3-4, with Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Emmanuel Acho, and Keenan Robinson out there together at times. Given our situation at DT, it makes sense -- all four are playmakers. You wonder how Texas would fare against a team with a power rushing attack, but then you look at the Big 12 and shrug. Who f***ng cares? Both Texas and OU have better defenses than anyone outside the conference will ever realize."
"This isn't Mack Brown's strongest defensive line, but it may be his quickest. I think it's enough for Muschamp to get by. We'll see. An injury to Lamarr Houston would be catastrophic."
"The secondary is just unfair. We've talked about this before, but Aaron Williams is the best true sophomore DB Texas has ever had in the Mack Brown era. And we've had some good ones. Chykie Brown is healthy and is just so long, both in his strides and in his arms; when he concentrates with his footwork, he's not getting passed on. Curtis Brown has the raw athleticism but isn't there fundamentally yet. He had trouble with Kirkendoll tonight. Still, I'd rather have him than anyone on, say, Oklahoma State. Earl Thomas is All-Conference, and Blake Gideon and Christian Scott will do a great job competing with one another for top minutes."
"I didn't focus on the line play too much, but if I'm able to make it to tomorrow's practice I'll look in. The main thing for me is while I don't want to put too much into player notes on one practice, the way I saw everyone out there working made me 100% believe this team is what we think it is. All the hype will be about the Texas and OU offenses, but the real story is the defenses. The Sooners are much better on D than anyone in the mainstream media will talk about, but so is Texas. In fact, if you made me draft any defense from the MB era, I'm not sure I wouldn't choose this group #1, depth at tackle be damned. My love for the LBs/DBs is that strong."

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

Morning Coffee Wonders About Duncanville

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 03:10:14 -0000

Collapse ends Williams' high school career. It wasn't supposed to end this way. Not after taking home the state championship in 2007. Not after starting the season ranked as the number one team in the country. Not after the outgoing seniors won 130 games in their four seasons -- three of them will attend Division I programs next year. But it did end, in extremely disappointing fashion, as the Duncanville Panthers gave up a 16-point second half lead against eventual state runner-up Cedar Hill and lost on a last-second shot.

Gerry Hamilton describes ($) the Duncanville team as one lacking chemistry at the end of the season and broken up by individuals playing selfishly to support their growing egos. Shawn Williams thinks that the success of their state title went to their collective heads:

After we won, things changed. I'm kind of glad it's over and I'm ready to get to Texas.

Duncanville coach Phil McNeely also had enough, retiring following the season after 31 years as a high school coach, including the last 25 at Duncanville. In his final statements as coach, he said that there were no negatives, but can the timing really be a coincidence? Was the fractured 2009 team enough to drive him from coaching?

It's hard to ascertain the answers to these questions and the truth may never be known, unless someone close to the program has inside information. However, it does have significance to the Longhorn basketball team next year. Coming from such a talented team was supposed to be a benefit for Shawn Williams, helping him learn how to play a role on an excellent basketball, how to share the spotlight and avoid the me-first mentality so many former high school stars must shed at the college level. Hamilton calls Williams "unselfish," ostensibly relieving him of blame for the disappointing end to the season, but now the question is how much he learned about what not to do.

Whatever those lessons may be, Williams is working hard in the off season with the intention of contributing to a deep team in 2009-10:

I'm tying to get ready. I'm lifting weights on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday I go to work out with a guy that works out LaMarcus Aldridge and Chris Bosh in the offseason. I'm really working on my ball handling and explosiveness. I think handling the ball is number one for me. Being able to go by people off the dribble is big for me because I have to be guarded.

Despite what some readers may believe, ball handling has some long an area needing serious improvement for Williams, who needs little work on his pure shooting form. The other question for Wiliams is the health of his left ankle, which he has continually tweaked over the last few seasons. Named the DMN Player of the Year, Williams averaged 20.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and made more than 80 three pointers on the season, including a 44-point outburst against South Grand Prairie in February.

Despite Hamilton's comment about Williams being unselfish, there have been some doubters over the years:

Spectators said Williams played in slow motion, almost as if he appeared not to be trying. They thought he wasn't a factor when he was on the court. Some even had the nerve to question his work ethic and why he was heavily recruited.

According to McNeely, Williams gave the impression of not trying because the game came so easily to him -- he's just one of those fluid players, giving max effort without appearing like it. For his part, Williams has heard the criticism and brushes it off:

I always heard stuff like that. Most of those people don't even know me. The ones who were around me and were at practice with me, they knew better.

Ultimately, Rick Barnes and his staff had the final say about their opinion of Williams' work ethic, giving their approval by their offer. So, after a trying season of discontent, Williams will step onto campus in June, finally a Longhorn.

Dorsey trip not a sign of open recruitment. Ever reactionary, Texas message boards buzzed over the weekend about 2010 defensive tackle commit Ashton Dorsey's apperance in College Station for the Aggie Maroon & White game. Turns out there is nothing to fear ($), as Dorsey made the trip simply to spend time with his older brother Adren, a redshirt freshman defensive tackle and calls Texas ($) "the greatest school in the United States."

Dorsey will be back on the 40 Acres for a June camp and is working hard to prepare for spring practice. Working on his strength and speed are priorities, Dorsey says, as he works out, runs ladder drills, and tries to increase his speed and strength using tires and parachutes.

Hamilton on Hamilton. Since I haven't had the chance to watch Saturday's Jordan Brand Classic and don't have much of an inclination after seeing the effort put forth by most participants, Gerry Hamilton has kindly filled in the blanks about Jordan Hamilton ($):

Hamilton came off the bench for the Black Team and wasted little time getting up his first shot as a senior hoisting up a 25-footer, which was a miss. Hamilton scored his first basket on an uncontested layup and then converted a 25-footer from the top of the key for his five first half points while shooting 2-6.

As has been the case many times watching Hamilton, his all-around play is underrated and was impressive. Because of his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays for others, the 6-7.5 wing is a threat in transition after snatching a rebound. Hamilton takes away the need for an outlet pass and immediately pushes the ball without the need of an outlet pass.

Hamilton made a couple of nifty lob passes for dunks as well as grabbing four rebounds in the first half.

The #13 prospect in the 2009 class got the start in the second half and immediately hit a 22-foot three from the right wing, but would miss on his next three long range attempts as well as a forced, tough 12-footer off the dribble. Hamilton pulled down two more rebounds and made two more impressive passes in traffic for assists.

Hamilton also got down in a defensive stance when guarding on the perimeter and attempted use his length to cause deflections.

On the night, Hamilton hit 3-10 from the field and 2-6 from three for eight points to go with six rebounds and four assists.

Hamilton will have to work on shot selection at times as he is too quick to settle for the 24-footers. Don't expect to see Hamilton hoisting the ball from 25 feet at Texas often.

Shot selection will probably be an issue early on for Hamilton, as he has a quick trigger and is known as a scorer, but players normally learn quickly about which shots Rick Barnes does and does not tolerate -- receiving a fast hook on several occasions generally accelerates the learning curve.

On the positive side, Hamilton's willingness to pass the ball in a me-first game reflects well on his ability to make plays for his teammates and any effort on the defensive end is impressive in such a game. Gerry mentions Jordan's ability to lead in transition (a skill lost not possessed by Damion James) will greatly aid the Longhorn transition game and relieve pressure on the half-court offense. Jordan Hamilton and Avery Bradley leading the break should be a beautiful sight to behold next season.

Has the light come on for Vince? It's premature to label Vince Young's NFL career a bust, but the time of judgment is rapidly approaching. Another season sulking on the Titans bench behind the aging Kerry Collins might be enough to end Young's career in Tennessee and send him looking for a job and final shot at redemption. For his part, Young is saying the right things in the off season:

I am just going to keep my mouth closed, man. All I am doing this year is shutting up, just shutting up and working. I am going to smile and shut up and continue being Vince Young, a happy smiling guy. I am not going to get into the hoopla any more because of the fact I can't win any more, I see.

I am just going to shut my mouth and play my role and if they need me then I will be available as a weapon.

Whether that talk becomes anything more than that during the season remains to be seen, but Young's sideline demeanor is in desperate need of a makeover. Known for having a thin skin, Young needs to move past his desire to shut down emotionally when life doesn't work out as planned and put in the time and effort watching film and throwing with his teammates to succeed. Turns out taking the NFL by storm isn't as easy as you thought, Vince.

From the Land of Miscellany. Sherrod Harris, Blake Gideon, and Jared Norton all had minor surgeries, but should be ready for fall practice...The Aggies finally won something...Austin Wood was named Big 12 Pitcher of the Week after recording three saves...Eddie Johnson, 2010 wide receiver from Midlothian and one-time possible Texas target, gave his verbal commitment to Baylor...Sergio Kindle is the 13th-ranked player in the Big 12 by Tim Griffin.

Morning Coffee Thinks The Offense Failed To Impress In Spring Game

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:34:46 -0000

The useless EBS. Any member of Mack Brown's coaching staff will couch their comments about the team in the most sanitary and unoffensive manner possible. Considering that information, Greg Davis' comment about Greg Smith last week was particularly revealing: Davis called the former center and current first-team tight end an "extra blocking surface," noting his inability to stretch the field. An extra blocking surface. In other words, he's out there to take up space -- nothing more. Anyone else want more from their tight end?

Smith failed to cause any reason to re-evaluate Davis' comments, dropping two passes and generally proving himself incapable of doing anything other than running five yards down field and turning around, providing absoutely nothing to the offense. Greg Smith should not see the field this year, even if he turns out to be the only viable tight end option until Blaine Irby returns from injury around the Oklahoma game. Any sight of him on the field simply makes me nauseous.

To be fair to Smith, Davis also put converted defensive end Ahmard Howard into the same category as the much-maligned "tight end" -- an extra blocking surface who fails to stretch the field and contributed to Sherrod Harris' interception by failing to secure his first throw. Take him from my sight, as well.

Harris fails to impress. Retroactively silencing the calls last season for Sherrod Harris to back up Cold McCoy, the redshirt junior quarterback looked completely unprepared to lead the Longhorns in 2009 or any other year. The Texas defensive backfield deserves credit for blanketing their offensive counterparts all day, but Harris made their job easier by locking onto his first option and failing to check down to his second and third options. When Harris did throw the football he struggled with his accuracy on a windy day -- Colt McCoy must stay healthy this year.

Not the real McCoy. Sherrod Harris wasn't the only Texas quarterback to struggle on a sun-drenched and wind-blown spring day at DKR. Looking like a shell of the record-setting quarterback he was during his junior season, Colt McCoy also struggled being on the same page with his receivers and with his accuracy, particularly on his deep passes on a day during which he he played much more than expected. Though McCoy surely wasn't aided by Greg Smith doing little more than take up space on many of the drives, he also threw his first interception of the spring, a pick-six gift to Earl Thomas after seemingly failing to notice the sophomore safety.

The losses of Quan Cosby to graduation and Jordan Shipley to shoulder surgery this spring look more important than previously thought. James Kirkendoll and Brandon Collins generally failed to gain separation throughout the day and Malcolm Williams, counted on to provide the first deep threat at split end since Limas Sweed, couldn't hook up with McCoy on deep passes, as the presumptive Heisman candidate failed to put the ball in a position for Williams to make a play.

Truly, it's possible that McCoy could fail to match the other-worldly completion percentage from his junior year -- he could regress in an offense lacking Cosby as his security blanket. McCoy only completed 11-24 passes for 94 yards on the days, number incomprehensible during a game last season.

To his credit, McCoy made an outstanding throw to Brandon Collins on the outside near the end of the first quarter -- truly an NFL throw, the defense knows the offense inside and out, and the wind had a major impact on the game. It is far from time to panic, but the expectation was for McCoy to look much more crisp.

Buckner flexing. The entrenchment of redshirt sophomore Malcolm Williams at split end will keep heralded sophomore Dan Buckner off the field for the majority of the snaps in 2009. Unless, of course, Buckner can fill the flex tight end role DJ Grant played for much of the spring. Arguably, the most interesting offensive wrinkle displayed Sunday showed a look with Buckner in the flex position made famous by Jordan Shipley. Like Grant, Buckner doesn't have the size and strength to block defensive ends, but matched up against linebackers and safeties in the slot, Buckner may find a way onto the field and the dynamic passing threat that Greg Smith so obviously fails to provide.

Mythical Fozzy creature update. Whittaker looked explosive on the second drive by the first team, taking the first play outside for a long gain before taking the second into the end zone on an I formation play with the fake reverse prevalent throughout the day in that formation. On the debit side for the Fozzy creature, he did fail to get the ball into the end zone in a goal line situation late in the game, looking like he simply failed to get the proper leg drive to drag his defenders into the end zone.

The invisible man. Working at the flanker position, which receives the majority of screen passes in the Longhorn offense, it was expected that John Chiles would have some passes thrown in his direction early and often in his public debut at recevier. In fact, the exact opposite was the case, as the Texas quarterbacks failed to look in Chiles' direction at any point in the afternoon and Greg Davis failed to call any screen plays for the former quarterback and five-star recruit. Chiles remains an unknown commodity.

Wrinkle for the running game. As expected, the Longhorns worked often out of I formation, utilizing Antwan Cobb as a fullbck for Vondrell McGee and Fozzy Whittaker. Nothing newsworthy there, but the most significant offensive wrinkle of the day came as a Longhorn receiver nearly always came in motion on the I formation play, providing the most significant misdirection seen in the Longhorn offense in years.

On only one play did the receiver take the ball -- a nice run by James Kirkendoll -- but the play should became an I formation staple in 2009. Despite widespread acclaim from Texas coaches throughout the spring, Cobb often failed to put his hat on defenders in the hole, often struggling to find someone to block as the Longhorn running back opted for another hole. Unused to designated holes developing, the running backs may not understand that I formation plays designate a hole -- unlike their accustomed zone blocking plays, during which a hole may develop at any point in the line.

Little advancement on offensive line. The zone blocking game looked just like last year -- a complete failure at consistently picking up yardage. The I formation running didn't look much better, as the line failed to move the line of scrimmage and the fullback often failed to make blocks (see above). After a disappointing performance in 2008, the offensive line was expected to make significant improvements going in to 2009. In the running game, the line failed, though the various defensive fronts deployed by Will Muschamp were generally kept out of the offensive backfield during the contest.

Muschamp fails to get his wish. Even after giving up only 188 yards and keeping the offense from converting 15 of 18 third-down opportunities, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp no doubt left the field upset. That's because the perfectionist Coach Boom wanted a shut out by his defense. All in all, the defense out-performed the generally stagnant offense, a surprise paritcularly on the inside of the defnesive line, where the Longhorns have their bigest question marks.

Spring game minutae.

Sergio Kindle did not play in the game. Geoff Ketchum reports that he might have been in the doghouse this week, though Kindle may have sat out to provide Alex Okafor with more reps and Muschamp may also have wanted to keep Kindle's abilities as a defensive end under wraps until the fall -- telling the world that he has no inclination to give any insights into how he will use Kindle. Brock Fitzhenry, hobbled by a hamstring injury, Ian Harris, out with a customery stinger in his neck, and DJ Grant, sidelined with an ankle injury, did not participate in the game.
Earl Thomas, James Kirkendoll, and DeSean Hales did a poor job of fielding punts today, making it apparent why Mack Brown opted for the trustworthy Quan Cosby over more explosive playmakers. Turnovers in the kicking game will be absolutely unacceptable and the effort on Sunday was the epitome of unacceptable.
In passing situations, Muschamp often played with two defensive tackles at the three technique, not worried about the Longhorn offense exploiting the middle of the defensive line, what will likely be a common tactic during the Big 12 season.
Alex Okafor wasn't dominating, but he got a ton of reps during the game and more than held his own. He will be a superstar before leaving Texas.
James Kirkendoll looked explosive on his end around on an I-formation play late in teh first half and was absoutely obliterated by Christan Scott. Kid can lay the wood.
Vondrell McGee looked quick and powerful today. No matter how well Cody Johnson is playing, McGee's consistency this spring and burst on Sunday are encouraging in a Texas running back world generally bereft of hope.
Kicking into the wind was a serious problem for Longhorn kickers all day, as Hunter Lawrence missed a 43-yard field goal, John Gold struggled punting into the wind, and the early returns on Justin Tucker kicking rugby punts left-footed waere mixed -- one punt went no more than 15 yards in the air before bouncing down the field, though he managed to down another inside the five. Once again, the wind likely made a difference, but the kicking game was sub-par on Sunday.
Malcolm Williams and Aaron Williams both had good returns that made serious statements for playing time on kick-off returns alongside Jordan Shipley. Malcolm looked exceptionally fast on his return, with great vision to bounce the play outside early, only stopped by the speed and angle of Earl Thomas. No one seems to blow up an angle on Earl Thomas...
Will Muschamp appeared to go often with a defensive front using only Lamarr Houston at tackle, with Sam Acho lined up as a three technique and Russell Carter on the outside as a defensive end, usually employing Dravannti Johnson as a pass-rushing defensive end/linebacker hybrid. On the day, the line failed to pressure the quarterback.
Nolan Brewster worked often with the first team, leaving Blake Gideon as the leader in the second-team secondary.
Oddly, Will Muschamp wasn't wearing his customary black shirt, instead opting for a burnt orange polo covered with a white windbreaker.
Linebacker Ryan Roberson saw some action at fullback.
A lot of the struggles by the wide receivers had to do with the outstanding play of Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown, who are the two most physical cornerbacks to line up defensively for Texas in a long, long time. Williams is so impressive physically that the imposing Malcolm Williams looks like nothing special in comparison. The only question is who among the group of Williams, Brown, and Earl Thomas will win the Thorpe award first.
James Kirkendoll brought permanent embarassment upon himself trying to take the outside on a kick-off return, finding himself brought down while trying to take the corner on kicker Hunter Lawrence, bringing back memories of the physical Greg Johnson.
More thoughts on the game here and here.

Morning Coffee Is All Over The Place

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:32:14 -0000

It's all because of Muschamp. Well, maybe not all of it. But rest assured that Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston deciding to return for their senior seasons has more to do with Muschamp ($) than any other football factors. Sure, Kindle and Houston will both earn their degrees next fall, with Houston the first of his four siblings to get a college degree, and Kindle wants to graduate to get his T-ring. Additionally, Brian Orakpo passed on his leadership role on the defense to Kindle and Houston and expects them to step up and take over the team next year. Hey, as big as Kindle and Houston are, even they don't want a disappointed Orakop coming around and asking them to explain failure.

In the end, money was an important factor, and Muschamp fits into that equation because he's the one who is going to scheme them to success and the fortune to follow. Here's Muschamp's sales pitch, according to Kindle:

Basically, he just laid out the numbers I can make this year compared to next year. He talked about the schemes for next year, and the possibility for our team to get to the Big 12 championship and the national championship with the players that we have coming back.

In terms of roles, Muschamp says that Kindle will get more work at the defensive end position in the spring because of the lack of depth there. After being unable to participate in offseason workouts last year, Kindle says the "sky is the limit" for what he can accomplish through hard work during the spring and summer leading up to his senior year. For Houston, he will have another year of experience and strength training at defensive tackle, and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him for most of his junior season, expect big things from him as well.

Devon Kennard set back in decision-making process. With former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt leaving for Washington, the promotion of Rocky Seto to defensive coordinator and the hiring of Jethro Franklin as defensive line coach, defensive end Devon Kennard is stepping back from the process to re-evaluate ($), pushing his decision likely back to Signing Day. A commitment to USC seemed imminent in the recent weeks, but if Darrell Scott is any evidence, the new position coach could tilt the scales in favor of the Longhorns. Could, that is, but may not, since Franklin is a long-time friend of Kennard's father, Derek, a former offensive lineman for the Saints. Also in Franklin's favor is his recent experience in the NFL, coaching defensive lineman for the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though he was fired from both jobs.

Of course, family connections played a key role in Scott's eventual commitment to Colorado, so maybe this situation doesn't end up favoring the Longhorns in the end at all. Some Longhorn fans are distressed about Kennard taking his in-home visit from Pete Caroll during the Fiesta Bowl, but Kennard says he recorded the game to watch it later and has seen Texas play and practice already. At least Texas fan are used to bad news leading up to and on Signing Day.

Transfer season is upon us. Despite rumors of an impending transfer, DJ Monroe plans to enroll for the spring semester in attempts to become eligible for football season next year. John Chiles and Mack Brown spoke, with Chiles deciding he wants to stay full-time at quarterback, where he will get all his reps in spring and fall practice. Rumors about Sherrod Harris leaving persisted for the second year in a row because of the logjam at quarterback, but Harris is reportedly staying in the program ($) as well after discussing the situation with his family. Defensively, there isn't as much depth, so the likely transfer candidates are all on the offensive side of the ball, unless you think Ben Wells might want out after getting little playing time, but that seems unlikely, since he and Christian Scott will compete for Blake Gideon's position.

That leaves crowded depth charts at the following positions on offense: Running back, wide receiver, tight end, and guard. There will be eight players competing for the two guard spots next season, although Britt Mitchell was worked some at short-yardage tight end, a position he may continue to work out next year with the graduation of Peter Ullman. Expect one player to leave from that position.

There will be seven scholarship running backs next season, including Antwan Cobb, who's more of a fullback by trade. Mostly likely to leave is Tre' Newton, although he received some buzz from coaches in the workouts leading up to the Fiesta Bowl, perhaps making Jeremy Hills a more likely candidate to transfer. Vondrell McGee didn't play at all in the Fiesta Bowl, so he may be considering his options, since Chris Whaley could cut into his playing time.

Eight scholarship players occupy the tight end position, although movement there is likely. Greg Smith will probably return to working at center or guard, but might continue in a short-yardage tight end role with Britt Mitchell. Ahmard Howard was moved from defensive end after the injuries during fall practice and is a candidate to move back. Trey Graham will probably redshirt, but that could mean that Ian Harris or Josh Marshall decide to move on after finding themselves on the outside looking in. Blaine Irby might not be able to play next year, though, which decreases the pressure on Harris and Marshall to assess their place in the program until after next year.

Wide receiver is the most likely position to see attrition, and soon. There are 11 (!) wide receivers who will be on scholarship next season, a number that seems way too high. Montre Webber and Philip Payne are the two players who have been passed on the depth chart by younger guys and have only seen limited action the last two years playing on the same unit as John Chiles. Neither of them are likely to ever start or find themselves in the rotation for Texas and are probably best served by finding somewhere they can play. The other player on the outside looking in is probably Brock Fitzhenry, who has the speed to enter consideration as a player who might end up being productive, but with Desean Hales competing for playing time at the same position and in the same class, Fitzhenry doesn't look like he will ever play at Texas, making him a possible candidate as well.

All in all, none of the possible defections I mentioned would cripple or even set back the Texas football program, so there is nothing in particular to worry about or obsess over in terms of potential transfers.

Mims update. Stony Point defensive end Tevin Mims will take his official visit to the Texas campus this weekend, where he will likely receive his scholarship offer. All indications are that Mims will probably commit on the spot, but he has not received his offer yet and despite some rumors, has not yet committed.