SB Nation - Josh Marshall

Morning Coffee Looks At Outstanding Offers

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 18:53:34 -0000

Order of need for current outstanding offers.

Jackson Jeffcoat - Perhaps the best player in the state, Jeffcoat would secure the future of the defensive end position for years and provide a replacement for Eddie Jones and Sam Acho.
Reggie Wilson - See above. What makes Wilson so special is that he hasn't played football long and has a frame suited to become a beast at the power end position. He's your classic case of TUP - Tremendous Upside Potential.
Darius White - Game. Breaker. Check this -- White is 6-4 and returns punts for his DeSoto team. And does it well. That's highly unusual and speaks to White's incredible skill. Last fall, he seemed like a lock to commit after the first Junior Day, but he stock has risen so far and he has received so many national offers that he's taking his time. He hasn't spoken for so long that it's hard to see where Texas stands at this point.
Jordan Hicks - Since Aaron Benson has already committed as a six-foot tall linebacker, taking a larger linebacker with a combination of size and speed like Hicks becomes more important than a similar player to Benson, a category into which Corey Nelson falls.
Adrian White - Known as the best cover cornerback in the state, White possesses the ability to come in and play as a freshman, just like Deon Beasley and Aaron Williams. It's almost becoming cliche to talk about the need for defensive backs in the Big 12, but it's no joke.
Lache Seastrunk - It might seem strange to see Seastrunk so far down on this list. Nothing against Seastrunk, but the commitment of Chris Jones over the weekend softens the blow of potentially losing Seastrunk. In other words, Jones could provide the gamebreaking threat out of the backfield for 5-10 plays a game, while also possessing more versatility as a more polished receiver. Despite all that, Seastrunk is still near the top of the wish list for the Longhorns.
DeMarco Cobbs - Cobbs sits at this spot on the list because of the current glut of commitments at the position and his inabiilty to make it down to Austin. Even though Cobbs likes the Longhorns a lot, it's still hard to believe that he will end up leaving Oklahoma for Texas.
Corey Nelson - After his infamous and public "horns down" incident, the vibe hasn't been good from Nelson. Texas has won most of the battles in the Metroplex and against OU for recruits so far, but Ou seems likely to win this one.
Torrea Peterson - The simple fact that Texas offered two defensive tackles this weekend, after it was possible that the class was finished with Bible and Cotton, indicates the level of concern with Jarvis Humphrey. Peterson ranks ahead of better players simply because of the difficulty finding defensive tackles.
Trovon Reed - Chris Jones' commitment also lessens the need for a receiver possessing Reed's skill set, but a spot will be held for Reed as long as the numbers permit. Ultimately, Reed could impact whether or not his close friend Seastrunk ends up at Texas or at a school like LSU, probably the most likely alternate destination for both of them.
Jake Matthews - After reports surfaced this weekend that his father, recently hired by the Texans to assist Alex Gibbs, didn't like the way the offensive line drills were being run is a bad sign, not only for the recruitment of his son, but also for the current offensive line. Don't hold your breath for a commitment from Jake.

Need positions. The class is nearly complete, but there are still several positions that need numbers (in order of importance):

Linebacker (possibly two spots open) - The plan was always to take four linebackers at the position with so many graduations after the 2009 season, with two committed and two offers currently out (Nelson and Hicks). The problem is that Texas isn't going to land both of those players, and possibly neither, meaning that another offer would probably go out to a member of the deep linebacker class. However, Kris Catlin fell off the radar and didn't attend the second Junior Day, and neither did Earl Hines, who hasn't been high on the Longhorns during the process at all. That leaves Shaun Lewis, who is a strong OU lean, and a local player in McNeil's Kurt Killens. An offer going out to a linebacker would
Defensive end (would take both Wilson and Jeffcoat) - Given Jeffcoat's lack of passion for Texas and Wilson's complete openness as a relatively late immigrant to the United State, like the linebacker position, Texas probably has to go out and find a second defensive end for the class. On that list would be players like Jefferson's Clarence Lee, the only Junior Day visitor without an offer at defensive end, Cedar Park's Holmes Onwukaife, or Houston Bellaire's Joe Okafor.
Defensive back (offer out to White) - The Longhorns really want White, as the best corner in the state, but could conceivably take another, like Lancaster's Quentin Hayes, who attended the second Junior Day, but did not receive an offer. If White doesn't commit, the class could well be done at this position.
Running back (only Seastrunk at this point) - This is the position with the least need, especially given the commitments of Traylon Shead and Chris Jones, who could carry the ball a few times a game. If Seastrunk doesn't commit and the coaches decide they need a scat back, Princeton Collins could be in line for an offer. Don't hold your breath, though, Princeton.

Finished positions.

Quarterback - Case McCoy and Connor Wood both committed early, even as Nick Montana was on the way for a visit, ending recruiting at the position early in the process.
Offensive line - Jake Matthews seems like a long shot now and it's highly unlikely that another offer would go out if Matthew decides to go somewhere else, as Dominic Espinosa was a relative surprise for an offer.
Tight end - Barrett Matthews and Trey Graham added some serious numbers to the tight end position and Josh Marshall and Blaine Irby will probably receive medical redshirts, pushing them both back a year, making tight end the least important position in the whole class. However, the Texas coaches love to convert big receivers into pass-catching tight ends, which is what will likely happen with big-bodied Darius Terrell, ending recruitment at the position.

The numbers game. The Longhorns are gorging themselves on early commitments to the extent that some people are actually wondering if things are moving too quickly. While I personally disagree with that line of reasoning, it is pertinent to wonder if Texas ended up taking lesser talents early that will keep them from taking bigger talents late. Already holding 19 verbal commitments, the Longhorns have only six spots available in the 2010 class, with 11 offers outstanding. Elemental math reveals that nearly half of those players will end up at other programs out of sheer numbers.

The most limited position that will be limited is wide receiver. With four commitments already (including Darius Terrell), that leaves only one or two spots available. In other words, the coaching staff is going to have to tell the three players currently with offers that recruiting at the position will be over when one or two of them commit. It raises an interesting problem. With Chris Jones in the fold, losing Reed isn't an issue, but telling a kid like DeMarco Cobbs or Darius White that they no longer have a scholarship available doesn't make much sense. If it is White who commits first, you could probably make the argument for taking Cobbs because he can play other positions, but he probably wouldn't be happy about that, in particular any discussion about playing defense.

Possible reaches? Every year, there are one or two players that Texas fans feel like weren't worthy of receiving offers. Considering the incredible cachet of a Texas offer and the quick commitment of many players, offering those guys is tantamount to having them on your roster. Already with 19 commitments and limited numbers, it's quite possible that several players like that currently inhabit the 2010 class.

There's a delicate balance in the process, since waiting for the top recruits sends a message of a lack of interest to the other players, who might go ahead and commit to another program. For the most part, I trust the evaluation process of the coaches, who decided to offer a guy like Greg Daniels, who blew up in size between his sophomore and junior sessons, over a player like Holmes Onwukaife or Joe Okafor. Using the Texas ranking lists by the recruiting services doesn't always tell the whole tale early in the process, as players will sometimes rise and fall based on their offers -- in other words, the evaluations of the major programs, making it kind of a circular process. Players might also rise or fall baed on film that comes in late, or a complete lack of film. That being said, there aren't any players on the list that jump out at me as big reaches. Feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts if there is someone you think the Longhorns shouldn't have taken.

Morning Coffee Wonders: To Offer Or Not To Offer?

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:00:09 -0000

2010 quarterback class complete. Before various sources started telling Texas recruiting services that Connor Wood gave his commitment to the Longhorn coaching staff on Tuesday evening, I had written a section for this Morning Coffee about other potential quarterback targets, notably Nick Montana, son of Joe and visitor to Austin this week. So much for that.

What does Connor Wood mean for Texas? Most obviously, it means that the quarterback position, assuming that Wood redshirts and then stays four more years, is set until the 2015 season. Think about that for a minute. It also means that Garrett Gilbert is unlikely to redshirt, as the coaching staff would want to separate Gilbert and Wood by the widest margin possible -- two years.

There is another storyline here as well. A few weeks ago, a rumor made the rounds that Thidodaux, LA's Trovon Reed was planning to transfer to Houston Second Baptist next season to play with Wood. Reed, of course, is close friends with Lache Seastrunk, with some talk that the two may attend the same college. While Wood's commitment doesn't guarantee anything from the other two players, it increases the possibility that Reed and Seastrunk could also find themselves in burnt orange.

The final interesting storyline concerns the turf war between Texas and Oklahoma for recruits. As the tide turned on the football field, it has also turned on the recruiting front, with the exception of Jamarkus McFarland. Even with OU offering earlier playing time and quite possibly a cushy Big Red Auto job, Wood still decided to stay in Texas -- a major loss for the Sooners, who are scrambling to find a replacement for Sam Bradford. Too bad, Stoopsie.

To offer. Or not to offer. Indeed, it is the question. While the first Junior Day seems like Christmas with offers going out to the best of the best in Texas and the intrigue surrounding if any big-time recruits will commit early, the second Junior Day looks mostly at the second-tier players and players who couldn't make the first Junior Day (like DeMarco Cobbs, certainly not second-tier, even nationally). Nearly every player at the first Junior Day received an offer, but a much smaller percentage will receive an offer at the second, with a higher percentage probably committing shortly in the days following. By the end of the first week in March, Texas should have around 15 commitments or more, leaving mostly the elite players waiting to make decisions.

One player invited to the second Junior Day on February 29 falls into the category of a player on the borderline of receiving an offer. With outstanding offers to wide receivers Darius White, Trovon Reed, and DeMarco Cobbs, the coaching staff has serious decisions to make about how many more receiver offers go out and to whom, especially since each of those players is a national recruit and Texas is unlikely to give any a deadline to make a decision, even a soft one.

Skyline's Mike Davis is one of the few who didn't receive an offer at the first Junior Day. A receiver coming in for the second Junior Day about whom offer speculation swirls is North Shore's DeAndrew White, a 6-0, 170-pound speedster (4.4 40) in the mold of a guy like Trovon Reed, with similar speed, lateral quickness, and outright elusiveness. Since the Percy Harvin-type is all the rage and I'm becoming infatuated with the triple option, Texas coaches would make a serious mistake by not bringing in a smaller, elusive receiver in the class to provide the versatility to carry the ball a few times per game and balance out larger, outside receivers like John Harris and Darius Terrell (who, of course, may switch to tight end). Already with an Alabama offer, White calls Texas his "dream team ($)," which might make a commitment imminent following an offer. The question is whether Texas decides to only offer one smaller receiver in Reed and miss out on White. Stay tuned.

To offer. Or not to offer. Part II. Like receiver, running back is a position that the Texas coaching staff may wait on. The problem is that the lone current offer is out to Lache Seastrunk, and he may not make a decision until late in the process. Do the Longhorns go after a bigger running back then, like Traylon Shead (who now reportedly has an offer) or Aldine's Dontae Williams, a big talent who has little film from his junior year because of Hurrican Ike and injuries.

Perhaps for those reasons Williams doesn't yet have an offer ($), but his grainy film does looks impressive. Even if the major programs haven't yet given him a lot of attention, Rivals sees something impressive, ranking him as the seventh-best prospect in Texas for 2010. Williams has the perfect size for a running back, at 6-0, 205 pounds, which allows him to play with good pad level and balance, while showing the burst of an elite back. Texas and LSU occupy the top two positions on his wish list for offers. It almost hurts the Longhorns that they have helped to accelerate the recruiting process to such an extent that waiting to evaluate the senior film of players who missed their junior season is too late except for guys who really fall through the cracks, like Tevin Mims and DJ Grant.

Wherefore art thou, tight end of 2009? Defensive end is a position of serious concern for the 2009 season because of attrition from graduation. Tight end is a little bit different -- it's a position of concern because of attrition, but that attrition took the form of devastating injuries to every pass-catching tight end on scholarship: Blaine Irby, Josh Marshall, and Ian Harris.

First, the bad news. Relatively. Mack Brown and company are holding out that Irby will make it back for the Tech game on September 19, which seems optimistic considering Irby isn't even running yet. And more bad news. Converted receiver Marshall won't be fully healed until later in spring practice, likely close to the game on April 5.

The good news is that Greg Smith won't see the field to run uselessly into the flat. Bill Frisbie, in what has to be a joke, noted that Smith duties last year were only "run-blocking in jumbo packages." Um, no. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, particularly in the first half of the Tech game, when Greg Davis' sphincter tightened considerably, leading him to insert Smith into the game to drop passes in the flat and fail to block Tech defensive ends. Mack Brown says the tight ends need to block better, since they gave up five sacks last year. Yes, they do, particularly those tight ends who are basically offensive lineman. Thankfully, Smith should rarely see the field next year.

Hopefully, DJ Grant will have a lot to do with that. The coaches want Grant to get up to 230 if possible, then use him flexed out as a receiver and in tight to block occasionally. The receiving part shouldn't be a problem, but the question will be how well he run blocks. The Texas running game needs serious help, but a tight end who consistently missed blocks won't help that and shouldn't see the field an h-back option like Barrett Matthews.

What Grant can do is stretch the field up the seam. It's a statement that seems like a cliche coming from the Texas coaches -- they use it that often. What is the importance of stretching the field vertically with the tight end, anyway? Most importantly, it threatens to draw a safety, particularly since most linebackers can't cover converted receivers like Jermichael Finley or speedy tight ends like Blaine Irby. With a safety forced to help, that opens up single coverage either on the split end (Malcolm Williams next year) or on both of the receivers lined up on the strong side of the formation (Jordan Shipley and Collins/Kirkendoll).

The Texas offense needs a versatile tight end to make sure the offense remains multiple, making tight end one of the most interesting positions to watch going into the spring game.

On the question of a point guard. Much has been made of the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup a little more than a week ago against Oklahoma State. The move paid immediate dividends, with Balbay pushing the ball in transition to score the first basket of the game. While Balbay's aggressiveness is heartening, the three-game stint as a starter has put into sharp relief his current faults.

The most commonly-known problem is Balbay's inability to shoot from the perimeter, evidenced by his (I believe) three made jump shots on the season. That's a problem. His problems at the free-throw line seem to be a general lack of touch rather than an issue with mechanics, but he does struggle from the field with his balance, often drifting on his shot, which he needs to work hard to correct in the off season. Fortunately, Balbay's quickness still allows him the ability to get into the lane, particularly in the open court, where few players can match his quickness.

A more significant impediment to his playing time is his inability to stay out of foul trouble. Besides the occasional foul in transition trying to contest a lay up, almost every other foul on the defensive occurs far away from the basket. It's enough of a problem that I've begun joking to my friends that Balbay must lead the country in the average distance from the basket that he commits his fouls. It's probably somewhere around 20 feet.

Balbay has the strength and the lateral speed to generally stay in front of players (besides a stretch in the second half against Oklahoma State when Byron Eaton abused him), but he struggles with his body control and often picks up cheap fouls. Those type of plays accounted for two of his four fouls against Texas A&M and limited his time on the court. Ball pressure between half court and the three-point line is a high-risk/low-reward game right now for Balbay. Instead of forcing turnovers, he generally either gives up dribble penetration or commits a foul far from the basket. If Balbay can't pressure the ball without fouling, Rick Barnes is going to have to ask him to back off.

The other issue concerns Balbay's struggles finishing around the rim, despite his extraordinary athleticism. It appears to be an issue of knowing how to use the backboard. He often lofts the ball up without any touch or spin, sometimes even failing to use the backboard at all. Several shots around the rim have gone in after hitting the side and heel of the rim and bouncing in. Since he often likes to attack the rim directly and use a finger roll, it could be that Balbay has little experience using the backboard. The finger roll is a relatively low percentage shot around the rim because it has only two results -- it goes in or hits the heel and bounces out. There isn't much room for it to bounce around and go in.

Recruiting Spotlight: Trey Graham

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 23:39:25 -0000

With Signing Day rapidly approaching and the great majority of the Longhorns' 2009 class already committed, it's time to look at each individual prospect.

Vitals

Name: Trey Graham

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Speed: 4.62 forty-yard dash

High School: Waco Midway

Rating (Rivals): Three out of five

Strengths

A true dual threat at tight end, Graham possesses excellent speed for his position, evidenced by his 4.6 40s, as well as significant athleticism with a 36-inch vertical, signs of his wide receiver past and pedigree. Two skills that will serve Graham well in the Texas offense stand out: 1) his speed can stretch the field vertically and 2) he runs good routes ($) and has the ability to exploit zone coverage by finding and settling into coverage holes. An excellent student with a GPA of 98.5 on a 100 scale and future business and pre-med major, Graham displays the concentration level to adjust to poorly thrown balls.

While known as a pass catcher, Graham added 15 pounds of muscle between his junior and senior seasons to wed strength to his high energy level when run blocking. Attributing those frame gains to work outs with the offensive lineman ($) in the weight room and competing with the lineman flipping tires and pushing trucks, Graham already works hard at maximizing his ability, even lifting at home in his father's own weight room ($). His frame may allow more bulk, but Graham already plays at the same weight Texas coaches want DJ Grant to play at next season, though Graham stands two inches taller and may still need to get stronger. A likely goal for entering his freshman season at UT is probably between 240 and 250 pounds, with his high school coach Kent Bachtel saying he could even eventually reach 260 ($), a weight at which Graham could lose speed.

As a blocker, Graham moves his feet well and gets into the second level consistently, crediting those gains since his sophomore year to hard work and evaluating his technique on film. Graham improved as well during his senior season while clearing the way for running back John Hubert, a Darren Sproles clone who may head to Kansas State. Notice a pattern here with Graham? Yeah, kid works hard. He also places his hands well and locks onto the defender, meaning I don't have to talk about how he needs to substantially improve his technique at the collegiate level. Sweet!

Weaknesses

While Graham has the ability to catch the ball away from his body, he falls into the bad habit of letting the ball get into his body before making the catch. In his high school offense at Midway, he wasn't asked to run many vertical routes despite his excellent speed, so he could have an adjustment period to the role Texas coaches prefer for their tight ends, which is doing exactly that.

In terms of blocking, Graham needs to get better knee bend to gain better leverage to drive defenders off the line of scrimmage. Besides knee bend, the other issue plaguing his blocking is directly related to his knee bend, as Graham's pad level remains too upright, negating his leverage.

Verdict

A serious commitment to the weight room and honest critique of his blocking shortcomings allay any fears that Trey Graham is a one-dimensional tight end. With his background as a receiver and his precise route-running attesting to that experience, Graham's receiving credentials remain beyond reproach. The numbers weren't gaudy as a senior, with 18 catches for 240 yards and four touchdowns ($), but Graham isn't the Waco Midway team, he plays a role on an excellent Midway team that lost to Longview in the playoffs, the eventual state runners-up, yet still played well enough individually to earn first team All-District honors for a second straight year. In fact, Midway was flat-out loaded with talent ($) across classes. Several to keep an eye on: 2010 stud safety Ahmad Dixon, 2011 prospects linebacker Marc Martinez and Beau Blackshear (offer the kid just for his name, I say), and 2012 safety, 6-3 freshman Shakiel Randolph, already with playoff experience.

All that is to say that numbers don't tell the whole story for Graham, because his obvious work ethic and winning experience make him a more valuable prospect than his Rivals ranking suggests alone, though Austin-based recruiting analyst Randy Rodgers calls him the best tight end in Texas. When setting expectations appropriately, those intangibles make it more likely that Graham will eventually succeed at Texas. Considering what Texas ran out on the field last season after Blaine Irby's injury Graham could well have contributed this season, likely even as a true freshman.

His prospects for playing early next season appear more remote, but that depends significantly on the development of DJ Grant, Josh Marshall and Ian Harris and how the competition between Graham and fellow incoming freshman Barrett Matthews plays out. To handicap that competition, playing time will obviously depend on providing the best combination of blocking and receiving. The former receivers, Grant and Marshall, may be behind in that aspect, while Harris and Matthews may not run routes with the same quality as the former receivers or Graham, though Matthews certainly possesses speed to rival and surpass even the fast Graham.

Trey Graham Higlights (via InsideTexas)

Morning Coffee Is All Over The Place

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:32:14 -0000

It's all because of Muschamp. Well, maybe not all of it. But rest assured that Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston deciding to return for their senior seasons has more to do with Muschamp ($) than any other football factors. Sure, Kindle and Houston will both earn their degrees next fall, with Houston the first of his four siblings to get a college degree, and Kindle wants to graduate to get his T-ring. Additionally, Brian Orakpo passed on his leadership role on the defense to Kindle and Houston and expects them to step up and take over the team next year. Hey, as big as Kindle and Houston are, even they don't want a disappointed Orakop coming around and asking them to explain failure.

In the end, money was an important factor, and Muschamp fits into that equation because he's the one who is going to scheme them to success and the fortune to follow. Here's Muschamp's sales pitch, according to Kindle:

Basically, he just laid out the numbers I can make this year compared to next year. He talked about the schemes for next year, and the possibility for our team to get to the Big 12 championship and the national championship with the players that we have coming back.

In terms of roles, Muschamp says that Kindle will get more work at the defensive end position in the spring because of the lack of depth there. After being unable to participate in offseason workouts last year, Kindle says the "sky is the limit" for what he can accomplish through hard work during the spring and summer leading up to his senior year. For Houston, he will have another year of experience and strength training at defensive tackle, and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him for most of his junior season, expect big things from him as well.

Devon Kennard set back in decision-making process. With former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt leaving for Washington, the promotion of Rocky Seto to defensive coordinator and the hiring of Jethro Franklin as defensive line coach, defensive end Devon Kennard is stepping back from the process to re-evaluate ($), pushing his decision likely back to Signing Day. A commitment to USC seemed imminent in the recent weeks, but if Darrell Scott is any evidence, the new position coach could tilt the scales in favor of the Longhorns. Could, that is, but may not, since Franklin is a long-time friend of Kennard's father, Derek, a former offensive lineman for the Saints. Also in Franklin's favor is his recent experience in the NFL, coaching defensive lineman for the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though he was fired from both jobs.

Of course, family connections played a key role in Scott's eventual commitment to Colorado, so maybe this situation doesn't end up favoring the Longhorns in the end at all. Some Longhorn fans are distressed about Kennard taking his in-home visit from Pete Caroll during the Fiesta Bowl, but Kennard says he recorded the game to watch it later and has seen Texas play and practice already. At least Texas fan are used to bad news leading up to and on Signing Day.

Transfer season is upon us. Despite rumors of an impending transfer, DJ Monroe plans to enroll for the spring semester in attempts to become eligible for football season next year. John Chiles and Mack Brown spoke, with Chiles deciding he wants to stay full-time at quarterback, where he will get all his reps in spring and fall practice. Rumors about Sherrod Harris leaving persisted for the second year in a row because of the logjam at quarterback, but Harris is reportedly staying in the program ($) as well after discussing the situation with his family. Defensively, there isn't as much depth, so the likely transfer candidates are all on the offensive side of the ball, unless you think Ben Wells might want out after getting little playing time, but that seems unlikely, since he and Christian Scott will compete for Blake Gideon's position.

That leaves crowded depth charts at the following positions on offense: Running back, wide receiver, tight end, and guard. There will be eight players competing for the two guard spots next season, although Britt Mitchell was worked some at short-yardage tight end, a position he may continue to work out next year with the graduation of Peter Ullman. Expect one player to leave from that position.

There will be seven scholarship running backs next season, including Antwan Cobb, who's more of a fullback by trade. Mostly likely to leave is Tre' Newton, although he received some buzz from coaches in the workouts leading up to the Fiesta Bowl, perhaps making Jeremy Hills a more likely candidate to transfer. Vondrell McGee didn't play at all in the Fiesta Bowl, so he may be considering his options, since Chris Whaley could cut into his playing time.

Eight scholarship players occupy the tight end position, although movement there is likely. Greg Smith will probably return to working at center or guard, but might continue in a short-yardage tight end role with Britt Mitchell. Ahmard Howard was moved from defensive end after the injuries during fall practice and is a candidate to move back. Trey Graham will probably redshirt, but that could mean that Ian Harris or Josh Marshall decide to move on after finding themselves on the outside looking in. Blaine Irby might not be able to play next year, though, which decreases the pressure on Harris and Marshall to assess their place in the program until after next year.

Wide receiver is the most likely position to see attrition, and soon. There are 11 (!) wide receivers who will be on scholarship next season, a number that seems way too high. Montre Webber and Philip Payne are the two players who have been passed on the depth chart by younger guys and have only seen limited action the last two years playing on the same unit as John Chiles. Neither of them are likely to ever start or find themselves in the rotation for Texas and are probably best served by finding somewhere they can play. The other player on the outside looking in is probably Brock Fitzhenry, who has the speed to enter consideration as a player who might end up being productive, but with Desean Hales competing for playing time at the same position and in the same class, Fitzhenry doesn't look like he will ever play at Texas, making him a possible candidate as well.

All in all, none of the possible defections I mentioned would cripple or even set back the Texas football program, so there is nothing in particular to worry about or obsess over in terms of potential transfers.

Mims update. Stony Point defensive end Tevin Mims will take his official visit to the Texas campus this weekend, where he will likely receive his scholarship offer. All indications are that Mims will probably commit on the spot, but he has not received his offer yet and despite some rumors, has not yet committed.

Morning Coffee Sorts Through The Irby-Less Passing Game

Peter Bean — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:19:18 -0000

Meet Greg Smith. Tight End Blaine Irby's knee injury not only ends prematurely what was shaping up to be a very solid breakthrough sophomore season, but it comes at a position on the roster without the depth to absorb the loss in stride. While through 2.5 games Irby had already caught 10 passes for 95 yards, including 2 touchdowns, his back ups include a known (blocking) commodity in senior Peter Ullman, two linemen-tight end tweeners (Ahmard Howard and Greg Smith), a redshirt freshman with zero snaps of live football experience (Ian Harris) and a redshirt sophomore heretofore listed on the squad team (Josh Marshall).

The coaches released on Sunday an Arkansas depth chart, which lists Greg Smith as the starter at tight end, backed up by Ullman, Howard, and Harris. You may recognize Smith's name as the team's deep snapper, a skill he's deployed well for Texas on the field while he's been busy bouncing around between tight end and the offensive line off of it. Now facing the worst case scenario, however, Texas coaches appear set to ask Smith to assume Irby's role as the primary tight end.

Smith is neither as athletic, nor likely to replicate with McCoy such strong rapport as had Irby, though Greg Davis reportedly was pleased with Smith's play at tight end during spring workouts, citing his "good feet for a big guy." Beyond the above, I'll withhold further commentary until we get some more information on Monday from Mack Brown's beginning-of-week visit with the press.

Silver lining? If there's a silver lining to latch onto, it's that a chunk of Irby's value has been in his role as an outlet for McCoy underneath, as reflected in his pedestrian 9.5 yards per reception. If it would be too simplistic to ignore Irby's ability to make plays down the field as well, it's fair to say his loss could be significantly offset if Smith proves able in the more modest role of dependable outlet.

McCoy's struggles have at times been the result of trying to do too much and his near-perfection this year a reflection of crisper decision-making when his downfield options aren't open. It doesn't seem foolishly optimistic to hope Smith (or another of the back ups) can provide value as a low-risk target McCoy knows how to find when needed. We'll learn more Monday, but I suspect that will be the goal around which the coaches make decisions going forward.

The time to find a running game is running out. Though Texas fans this morning are rightly buzzing about Colt McCoy and worrying about the situation at tight end, the biggest story not getting much air time is the third-straight mediocre rushing effort rushing the football. Though McCoy certainly did his part and second-teamers John Chiles & Cody Johnson mopped up quite nicely, the evidence against Vondrell McGee as a viable every-down player continues to mount. The sophomore picked up just 30 yards on 8 carries and once again seemed out of place in Texas' 11 formation (1 RB, 1 TE), where his north-south, from-the-I style awkwardly tries to navigate the floating, zone block schemes of our running game.

McGee has now passed the century mark in career carries--more than enough to see that he's not well-suited to be the primary back in Texas' current rushing scheme. Since Texas isn't going to put Colt under center to accommodate McGee, we're left to worry about Fozzy Whittaker's knee, which troublingly kept him out of action again on Saturday, despite the hurricane-induced off week. Unless Colt plans on shattering every passing record in the Division 1 books, Texas will at some point need to provide some help from the tailback. Only Arkansas now stands between Texas and the opening Big 12 slate (rankings as seen in Week 4 Coaches Poll):

at #33 Colorado (3-0)
vs #2 Oklahoma in Dallas (3-0)
vs #5 Missouri (4-0)
vs #28 Oklahoma State (3-0)
vs #9 Texas Tech (4-0)

Deep man discovered? Jordan Shipley was regularly mentioned as one of the top wide receiver candidates to provide a deep threat, thanks in large part to his entering the 2008 season healthy--a first since he arrived in Austin after a record-setting high school career. So far, so good as the ninth-year junior has averaged 19.8 yards on his 12 catches on the season, 4 of which have gone for touchdowns. MB-TF.com doesn't track Yards After Catch, but if we had access to that data, it would show Shipley's done a terrific job catching the ball either already in space or making the right moves to get there in a hurry.

Can it last? There are at least two reasons to think it can: First, think back quickly over the last three years to recall who was on the receiving end of the prettiest double-move touchdowns in Colt McCoy's career. Off the top of my head, I come up with one to Cosby (UTEP) and the rest to Shipley (OU '06, Tech '06, Iowa State '07, to name a few). Second, Shipley's athleticism when healthy is noticeable. Coupling the two, you get a smart, quick, and fast-enough receiver who runs great routes--which is enough to be a consistent big play receiver in NCAA football.

With none of the young receivers looking ready or, where they might be, ignored in the game plan, Shipley's ability to sustain this role looks critical.

This can't last, you know. Both the SEC and Big 12 continue to clog up the top spots in this week's rankings, with 4 teams from each conference among the Top 10. In the Coaches' Poll:

BIG 12: #2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech
SEC: #3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama

Also ranked in the Top 25 are #16 Auburn and #25 Vanderbilt from the SEC, as well as #18 Kansas from the Big 12. Lurking among the teams receiving votes are Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kentucky.