SB Nation - Blaine Irby

Morning Coffee Stretches Its Legs

Peter Bean — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:38:23 -0000

On Irby. As reported earlier this week, Texas tight end Blaine Irby is officially out for the season, ending speculation about a mid-season return. Evaluated from a Full Healthy Season Of Irby versus Not, it's obvious Texas would be better off with him. However, given the situation as it actually exists heading into the season, the analysis isn't so cut and dry; the news that Irby will not return in 2009 is, I'd argue, probably for the best.

Despite the return of Colt McCoy, an experienced offensive line, and a wealth of raw talent at the skill positions, the Longhorns on offense will once more open the season seeking to build and establish an identity. How well will the team rush the ball? Out of what formations? How often? How do we get the Freak (Williams) the ball on the outside?

Those are but a few of the big, well-known questions about the offense which we'll discuss ad nauseum from now until September, but if there's an ingredient common to each recipe providing the answers, it is the degree to which Texas is successful in quickly finding a quality tight end (or two) amongst the cadre of youngsters. Put another way: more than any other single factor, the difference between Texas' offense having the potential to be great and an out-and-out beast may well be determined by the tight end position.

For that reason, the news about Irby is perhaps something of a blessing. Mack Brown and Greg Davis now know unequivocally what they'll need from DJ Grant, Barrett Matthews, and/or Trey Graham (or another tight end prospect competing for a featured role). To the extent Irby's news helps focus everyone on how quickly and forcefully their development will have to be attended to, there's some strategic benefit. The more information you have, the easier it is to make sound strategic choices, near- and long-term.

And finally, looking down the road a ways, this likely benefits both the team and Irby in the long run. Assuming a full recovery is possible (no sure thing): two full years of a healthy Irby benefits him and the team more so than one half season of Irby at 80% and another at 100.

(I discuss the importance of the tight end to the Davis option passing game in greater detail in this year's Eyes of Texas annual. More in this space in the coming weeks, of course.)

Texas picked to win South Division. Members of the media voted on who would win each of the Big 12 divisions and Texas nosed out Oklahoma as the preseason favorite.

The headline says it all. As noted on MB-TF, "Longhorns QB Colt McCoy and Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford got together Saturday at the Cotton Bowl to take part in an preseason interview and competition staged by ESPN." The emphasis, of course, is mine.

The easy take here is the snarky one, but what's the point? It is what it is. More importantly, after last year no Longhorn fan should be in denial about the tangible consequences of the ESPN-ization of college football. The story about the teams determines the fate of the teams. The lesson was painful, if obvious: either get on board and play the game, or step aside and hope the buffoons get it right.

All of which is to say: there's no sense fighting the hype, pretending it doesn't exist, or downplaying its ever-expanding importance in the game. The punditry have made it crystal clear how they intend to cover the sport, and if it's hype and attitude that they want, then you'd might as well grin and bear it. Was there backlash against Mark Richt and Georgia when they did the berserker on Florida's end zone? Were the politeness police out questioning Bobbi Stoops for desperately dropping 60-bombs to get back in last year's race?

Not exactly. I guess we're still waiting to hear what this year's team motto is going to be, but as I'll explain in greater detail in The Narrative 2009, Mack Brown ought to consider: "Take No Prisoners."

Whatever runs best on ESPN.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Morning Coffee Looks At Outstanding Offers

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 18:53:34 -0000

Order of need for current outstanding offers.

Jackson Jeffcoat - Perhaps the best player in the state, Jeffcoat would secure the future of the defensive end position for years and provide a replacement for Eddie Jones and Sam Acho.
Reggie Wilson - See above. What makes Wilson so special is that he hasn't played football long and has a frame suited to become a beast at the power end position. He's your classic case of TUP - Tremendous Upside Potential.
Darius White - Game. Breaker. Check this -- White is 6-4 and returns punts for his DeSoto team. And does it well. That's highly unusual and speaks to White's incredible skill. Last fall, he seemed like a lock to commit after the first Junior Day, but he stock has risen so far and he has received so many national offers that he's taking his time. He hasn't spoken for so long that it's hard to see where Texas stands at this point.
Jordan Hicks - Since Aaron Benson has already committed as a six-foot tall linebacker, taking a larger linebacker with a combination of size and speed like Hicks becomes more important than a similar player to Benson, a category into which Corey Nelson falls.
Adrian White - Known as the best cover cornerback in the state, White possesses the ability to come in and play as a freshman, just like Deon Beasley and Aaron Williams. It's almost becoming cliche to talk about the need for defensive backs in the Big 12, but it's no joke.
Lache Seastrunk - It might seem strange to see Seastrunk so far down on this list. Nothing against Seastrunk, but the commitment of Chris Jones over the weekend softens the blow of potentially losing Seastrunk. In other words, Jones could provide the gamebreaking threat out of the backfield for 5-10 plays a game, while also possessing more versatility as a more polished receiver. Despite all that, Seastrunk is still near the top of the wish list for the Longhorns.
DeMarco Cobbs - Cobbs sits at this spot on the list because of the current glut of commitments at the position and his inabiilty to make it down to Austin. Even though Cobbs likes the Longhorns a lot, it's still hard to believe that he will end up leaving Oklahoma for Texas.
Corey Nelson - After his infamous and public "horns down" incident, the vibe hasn't been good from Nelson. Texas has won most of the battles in the Metroplex and against OU for recruits so far, but Ou seems likely to win this one.
Torrea Peterson - The simple fact that Texas offered two defensive tackles this weekend, after it was possible that the class was finished with Bible and Cotton, indicates the level of concern with Jarvis Humphrey. Peterson ranks ahead of better players simply because of the difficulty finding defensive tackles.
Trovon Reed - Chris Jones' commitment also lessens the need for a receiver possessing Reed's skill set, but a spot will be held for Reed as long as the numbers permit. Ultimately, Reed could impact whether or not his close friend Seastrunk ends up at Texas or at a school like LSU, probably the most likely alternate destination for both of them.
Jake Matthews - After reports surfaced this weekend that his father, recently hired by the Texans to assist Alex Gibbs, didn't like the way the offensive line drills were being run is a bad sign, not only for the recruitment of his son, but also for the current offensive line. Don't hold your breath for a commitment from Jake.

Need positions. The class is nearly complete, but there are still several positions that need numbers (in order of importance):

Linebacker (possibly two spots open) - The plan was always to take four linebackers at the position with so many graduations after the 2009 season, with two committed and two offers currently out (Nelson and Hicks). The problem is that Texas isn't going to land both of those players, and possibly neither, meaning that another offer would probably go out to a member of the deep linebacker class. However, Kris Catlin fell off the radar and didn't attend the second Junior Day, and neither did Earl Hines, who hasn't been high on the Longhorns during the process at all. That leaves Shaun Lewis, who is a strong OU lean, and a local player in McNeil's Kurt Killens. An offer going out to a linebacker would
Defensive end (would take both Wilson and Jeffcoat) - Given Jeffcoat's lack of passion for Texas and Wilson's complete openness as a relatively late immigrant to the United State, like the linebacker position, Texas probably has to go out and find a second defensive end for the class. On that list would be players like Jefferson's Clarence Lee, the only Junior Day visitor without an offer at defensive end, Cedar Park's Holmes Onwukaife, or Houston Bellaire's Joe Okafor.
Defensive back (offer out to White) - The Longhorns really want White, as the best corner in the state, but could conceivably take another, like Lancaster's Quentin Hayes, who attended the second Junior Day, but did not receive an offer. If White doesn't commit, the class could well be done at this position.
Running back (only Seastrunk at this point) - This is the position with the least need, especially given the commitments of Traylon Shead and Chris Jones, who could carry the ball a few times a game. If Seastrunk doesn't commit and the coaches decide they need a scat back, Princeton Collins could be in line for an offer. Don't hold your breath, though, Princeton.

Finished positions.

Quarterback - Case McCoy and Connor Wood both committed early, even as Nick Montana was on the way for a visit, ending recruiting at the position early in the process.
Offensive line - Jake Matthews seems like a long shot now and it's highly unlikely that another offer would go out if Matthew decides to go somewhere else, as Dominic Espinosa was a relative surprise for an offer.
Tight end - Barrett Matthews and Trey Graham added some serious numbers to the tight end position and Josh Marshall and Blaine Irby will probably receive medical redshirts, pushing them both back a year, making tight end the least important position in the whole class. However, the Texas coaches love to convert big receivers into pass-catching tight ends, which is what will likely happen with big-bodied Darius Terrell, ending recruitment at the position.

The numbers game. The Longhorns are gorging themselves on early commitments to the extent that some people are actually wondering if things are moving too quickly. While I personally disagree with that line of reasoning, it is pertinent to wonder if Texas ended up taking lesser talents early that will keep them from taking bigger talents late. Already holding 19 verbal commitments, the Longhorns have only six spots available in the 2010 class, with 11 offers outstanding. Elemental math reveals that nearly half of those players will end up at other programs out of sheer numbers.

The most limited position that will be limited is wide receiver. With four commitments already (including Darius Terrell), that leaves only one or two spots available. In other words, the coaching staff is going to have to tell the three players currently with offers that recruiting at the position will be over when one or two of them commit. It raises an interesting problem. With Chris Jones in the fold, losing Reed isn't an issue, but telling a kid like DeMarco Cobbs or Darius White that they no longer have a scholarship available doesn't make much sense. If it is White who commits first, you could probably make the argument for taking Cobbs because he can play other positions, but he probably wouldn't be happy about that, in particular any discussion about playing defense.

Possible reaches? Every year, there are one or two players that Texas fans feel like weren't worthy of receiving offers. Considering the incredible cachet of a Texas offer and the quick commitment of many players, offering those guys is tantamount to having them on your roster. Already with 19 commitments and limited numbers, it's quite possible that several players like that currently inhabit the 2010 class.

There's a delicate balance in the process, since waiting for the top recruits sends a message of a lack of interest to the other players, who might go ahead and commit to another program. For the most part, I trust the evaluation process of the coaches, who decided to offer a guy like Greg Daniels, who blew up in size between his sophomore and junior sessons, over a player like Holmes Onwukaife or Joe Okafor. Using the Texas ranking lists by the recruiting services doesn't always tell the whole tale early in the process, as players will sometimes rise and fall based on their offers -- in other words, the evaluations of the major programs, making it kind of a circular process. Players might also rise or fall baed on film that comes in late, or a complete lack of film. That being said, there aren't any players on the list that jump out at me as big reaches. Feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts if there is someone you think the Longhorns shouldn't have taken.

Morning Coffee Wonders: To Offer Or Not To Offer?

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:00:09 -0000

2010 quarterback class complete. Before various sources started telling Texas recruiting services that Connor Wood gave his commitment to the Longhorn coaching staff on Tuesday evening, I had written a section for this Morning Coffee about other potential quarterback targets, notably Nick Montana, son of Joe and visitor to Austin this week. So much for that.

What does Connor Wood mean for Texas? Most obviously, it means that the quarterback position, assuming that Wood redshirts and then stays four more years, is set until the 2015 season. Think about that for a minute. It also means that Garrett Gilbert is unlikely to redshirt, as the coaching staff would want to separate Gilbert and Wood by the widest margin possible -- two years.

There is another storyline here as well. A few weeks ago, a rumor made the rounds that Thidodaux, LA's Trovon Reed was planning to transfer to Houston Second Baptist next season to play with Wood. Reed, of course, is close friends with Lache Seastrunk, with some talk that the two may attend the same college. While Wood's commitment doesn't guarantee anything from the other two players, it increases the possibility that Reed and Seastrunk could also find themselves in burnt orange.

The final interesting storyline concerns the turf war between Texas and Oklahoma for recruits. As the tide turned on the football field, it has also turned on the recruiting front, with the exception of Jamarkus McFarland. Even with OU offering earlier playing time and quite possibly a cushy Big Red Auto job, Wood still decided to stay in Texas -- a major loss for the Sooners, who are scrambling to find a replacement for Sam Bradford. Too bad, Stoopsie.

To offer. Or not to offer. Indeed, it is the question. While the first Junior Day seems like Christmas with offers going out to the best of the best in Texas and the intrigue surrounding if any big-time recruits will commit early, the second Junior Day looks mostly at the second-tier players and players who couldn't make the first Junior Day (like DeMarco Cobbs, certainly not second-tier, even nationally). Nearly every player at the first Junior Day received an offer, but a much smaller percentage will receive an offer at the second, with a higher percentage probably committing shortly in the days following. By the end of the first week in March, Texas should have around 15 commitments or more, leaving mostly the elite players waiting to make decisions.

One player invited to the second Junior Day on February 29 falls into the category of a player on the borderline of receiving an offer. With outstanding offers to wide receivers Darius White, Trovon Reed, and DeMarco Cobbs, the coaching staff has serious decisions to make about how many more receiver offers go out and to whom, especially since each of those players is a national recruit and Texas is unlikely to give any a deadline to make a decision, even a soft one.

Skyline's Mike Davis is one of the few who didn't receive an offer at the first Junior Day. A receiver coming in for the second Junior Day about whom offer speculation swirls is North Shore's DeAndrew White, a 6-0, 170-pound speedster (4.4 40) in the mold of a guy like Trovon Reed, with similar speed, lateral quickness, and outright elusiveness. Since the Percy Harvin-type is all the rage and I'm becoming infatuated with the triple option, Texas coaches would make a serious mistake by not bringing in a smaller, elusive receiver in the class to provide the versatility to carry the ball a few times per game and balance out larger, outside receivers like John Harris and Darius Terrell (who, of course, may switch to tight end). Already with an Alabama offer, White calls Texas his "dream team ($)," which might make a commitment imminent following an offer. The question is whether Texas decides to only offer one smaller receiver in Reed and miss out on White. Stay tuned.

To offer. Or not to offer. Part II. Like receiver, running back is a position that the Texas coaching staff may wait on. The problem is that the lone current offer is out to Lache Seastrunk, and he may not make a decision until late in the process. Do the Longhorns go after a bigger running back then, like Traylon Shead (who now reportedly has an offer) or Aldine's Dontae Williams, a big talent who has little film from his junior year because of Hurrican Ike and injuries.

Perhaps for those reasons Williams doesn't yet have an offer ($), but his grainy film does looks impressive. Even if the major programs haven't yet given him a lot of attention, Rivals sees something impressive, ranking him as the seventh-best prospect in Texas for 2010. Williams has the perfect size for a running back, at 6-0, 205 pounds, which allows him to play with good pad level and balance, while showing the burst of an elite back. Texas and LSU occupy the top two positions on his wish list for offers. It almost hurts the Longhorns that they have helped to accelerate the recruiting process to such an extent that waiting to evaluate the senior film of players who missed their junior season is too late except for guys who really fall through the cracks, like Tevin Mims and DJ Grant.

Wherefore art thou, tight end of 2009? Defensive end is a position of serious concern for the 2009 season because of attrition from graduation. Tight end is a little bit different -- it's a position of concern because of attrition, but that attrition took the form of devastating injuries to every pass-catching tight end on scholarship: Blaine Irby, Josh Marshall, and Ian Harris.

First, the bad news. Relatively. Mack Brown and company are holding out that Irby will make it back for the Tech game on September 19, which seems optimistic considering Irby isn't even running yet. And more bad news. Converted receiver Marshall won't be fully healed until later in spring practice, likely close to the game on April 5.

The good news is that Greg Smith won't see the field to run uselessly into the flat. Bill Frisbie, in what has to be a joke, noted that Smith duties last year were only "run-blocking in jumbo packages." Um, no. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, particularly in the first half of the Tech game, when Greg Davis' sphincter tightened considerably, leading him to insert Smith into the game to drop passes in the flat and fail to block Tech defensive ends. Mack Brown says the tight ends need to block better, since they gave up five sacks last year. Yes, they do, particularly those tight ends who are basically offensive lineman. Thankfully, Smith should rarely see the field next year.

Hopefully, DJ Grant will have a lot to do with that. The coaches want Grant to get up to 230 if possible, then use him flexed out as a receiver and in tight to block occasionally. The receiving part shouldn't be a problem, but the question will be how well he run blocks. The Texas running game needs serious help, but a tight end who consistently missed blocks won't help that and shouldn't see the field an h-back option like Barrett Matthews.

What Grant can do is stretch the field up the seam. It's a statement that seems like a cliche coming from the Texas coaches -- they use it that often. What is the importance of stretching the field vertically with the tight end, anyway? Most importantly, it threatens to draw a safety, particularly since most linebackers can't cover converted receivers like Jermichael Finley or speedy tight ends like Blaine Irby. With a safety forced to help, that opens up single coverage either on the split end (Malcolm Williams next year) or on both of the receivers lined up on the strong side of the formation (Jordan Shipley and Collins/Kirkendoll).

The Texas offense needs a versatile tight end to make sure the offense remains multiple, making tight end one of the most interesting positions to watch going into the spring game.

On the question of a point guard. Much has been made of the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup a little more than a week ago against Oklahoma State. The move paid immediate dividends, with Balbay pushing the ball in transition to score the first basket of the game. While Balbay's aggressiveness is heartening, the three-game stint as a starter has put into sharp relief his current faults.

The most commonly-known problem is Balbay's inability to shoot from the perimeter, evidenced by his (I believe) three made jump shots on the season. That's a problem. His problems at the free-throw line seem to be a general lack of touch rather than an issue with mechanics, but he does struggle from the field with his balance, often drifting on his shot, which he needs to work hard to correct in the off season. Fortunately, Balbay's quickness still allows him the ability to get into the lane, particularly in the open court, where few players can match his quickness.

A more significant impediment to his playing time is his inability to stay out of foul trouble. Besides the occasional foul in transition trying to contest a lay up, almost every other foul on the defensive occurs far away from the basket. It's enough of a problem that I've begun joking to my friends that Balbay must lead the country in the average distance from the basket that he commits his fouls. It's probably somewhere around 20 feet.

Balbay has the strength and the lateral speed to generally stay in front of players (besides a stretch in the second half against Oklahoma State when Byron Eaton abused him), but he struggles with his body control and often picks up cheap fouls. Those type of plays accounted for two of his four fouls against Texas A&M and limited his time on the court. Ball pressure between half court and the three-point line is a high-risk/low-reward game right now for Balbay. Instead of forcing turnovers, he generally either gives up dribble penetration or commits a foul far from the basket. If Balbay can't pressure the ball without fouling, Rick Barnes is going to have to ask him to back off.

The other issue concerns Balbay's struggles finishing around the rim, despite his extraordinary athleticism. It appears to be an issue of knowing how to use the backboard. He often lofts the ball up without any touch or spin, sometimes even failing to use the backboard at all. Several shots around the rim have gone in after hitting the side and heel of the rim and bouncing in. Since he often likes to attack the rim directly and use a finger roll, it could be that Balbay has little experience using the backboard. The finger roll is a relatively low percentage shot around the rim because it has only two results -- it goes in or hits the heel and bounces out. There isn't much room for it to bounce around and go in.

Recruiting Spotlight: Barrett Matthews

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 20:38:51 -0000

With Signing Day rapidly approaching and the great majority of the Longhorns' 2009 class already committed, it's time to look at each individual prospect.

Vitals

Name: Barrett Matthews

Height: 6-2

Weight: 235

Speed: 4.56 forty-yard dash

High School: Galena Park North Shore

Rating (Rivals): Three out of five

Strengths

Matthews' coach David Aymond describes the tight end prospect as a hard-nosed blocker ($), but a talented enough wide receiver to split out wide. Galena Park North Shore counts Cory Redding and Chykie Brown as alumnus, but also includes among those ranks two current Division I tight ends ($), Miami's Dajleon Farr and Arizona's Earl Mitchell, with two others before them. Coincidence perhaps, but a third consecutive Division I tight end suggests that Aymond and his catching staff, along with the S&C staff, are during a good coaching job. And of all of those tight ends, some consider Matthews the best blocker and most athletic.

As evidence of the coaching he receives, Matthews blocks with a combination of ferocity and technique. Like Graham, once Matthews gets his hands on a defender, he finishes the block using hand placement and leverage ($) generated from his pad level and lower body. Most observers credit Matthews with the type of tenacity and nasty streak needed to block at a high level in college. His strength helps, as Matthews benches ($) 325 pounds and squats 415 pounds.

Physicality in the blocking game extends to the passing game for Matthews, as he uses his body to shield defenders, as well as battle for position. His powers of concentration and physicality keep him calm tracking the ball and making catches in traffic, which he does consistently away from his body and with good hands. After the catch, Matthews uses his exceptional acceleration for a tight end, finishing runs with his characteristic physicality. That acceleration translates into good in-line speed and change of direction, making Matthews a difficult match up for opposing linebackers and fast enough to compete for his school's track team in the 100 and 200m events.

Weaknesses

Matthews doesn't run routes with the same polish as Graham, owing to the latter's experience as a wide receiver. In addition, the North Shore offense didn't throw the ball a lot to Matthews, meaning that his in-game reps and experience falls short of the Midway star. After a junior season in which he caught 18 balls for 316 yards and seven touchdowns ($), Matthews had 14 catches for 239 and four touchdowns ($). Despite the lack of touches, Mathews still earned Offensive Co-MVP ($) of his district.

Showing an acute awareness for his own faults, Matthews critiques his own game:

I think I need to get better in route running. On play action, knowing when to break off my route is one thing. Knowing when the quarterback is in trouble and coming back to the ball is another.

The ability to understand his own faults and work to improve them will help Matthews tremendously when he dons burnt orange, but Matthews clearly has some work to do refining his route-running skills, though that is his only major weakness.

Verdict

Perhaps given his invitation to the Under Armour All-American game, more buzz seems to surround Matthews than Trey Graham, even though Graham projects as more of a pure tight end and Matthews more of an H-back due to his height. When Greg Davis sits down this spring to devise ways to improve the running game, using an H-back may enter the consideration, a position Blaine Irby played his freshman year after all the fullbacks suffered injuries. It's entirely conceivable, though somewhat far-fetched, to conceive of a Texas offense in which Matthews and Graham both receive playing time next year, with Matthews in the H-back role and Graham getting reps at tight end. Like some of the less highly-rated members of the recruiting class, their first chance to get on the field may be special teams.

A close consideration of the skill sets of Graham and Matthews reveals two players who do some of the same things well, but in slightly different ways. Matthews is perhaps the better blocker at the moment because of his leverage and slightly better technique. Graham is the more polished receiver, while Matthews catches the ball away from his body a little bit better, with both players capable of quick acceleration, stretching the field down the seam, and finding holes in zone coverage.

That talent has attracted enough attention for programs like Oklahoma State, Alabama, and Florida to inquire about his services, even after his commitment to Texas. Matthews says he hasn't answered those phone calls or opened the mail from those programs, staying true to his word to Texas.

Morning Coffee Sorts Through The Irby-Less Passing Game

Peter Bean — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:19:18 -0000

Meet Greg Smith. Tight End Blaine Irby's knee injury not only ends prematurely what was shaping up to be a very solid breakthrough sophomore season, but it comes at a position on the roster without the depth to absorb the loss in stride. While through 2.5 games Irby had already caught 10 passes for 95 yards, including 2 touchdowns, his back ups include a known (blocking) commodity in senior Peter Ullman, two linemen-tight end tweeners (Ahmard Howard and Greg Smith), a redshirt freshman with zero snaps of live football experience (Ian Harris) and a redshirt sophomore heretofore listed on the squad team (Josh Marshall).

The coaches released on Sunday an Arkansas depth chart, which lists Greg Smith as the starter at tight end, backed up by Ullman, Howard, and Harris. You may recognize Smith's name as the team's deep snapper, a skill he's deployed well for Texas on the field while he's been busy bouncing around between tight end and the offensive line off of it. Now facing the worst case scenario, however, Texas coaches appear set to ask Smith to assume Irby's role as the primary tight end.

Smith is neither as athletic, nor likely to replicate with McCoy such strong rapport as had Irby, though Greg Davis reportedly was pleased with Smith's play at tight end during spring workouts, citing his "good feet for a big guy." Beyond the above, I'll withhold further commentary until we get some more information on Monday from Mack Brown's beginning-of-week visit with the press.

Silver lining? If there's a silver lining to latch onto, it's that a chunk of Irby's value has been in his role as an outlet for McCoy underneath, as reflected in his pedestrian 9.5 yards per reception. If it would be too simplistic to ignore Irby's ability to make plays down the field as well, it's fair to say his loss could be significantly offset if Smith proves able in the more modest role of dependable outlet.

McCoy's struggles have at times been the result of trying to do too much and his near-perfection this year a reflection of crisper decision-making when his downfield options aren't open. It doesn't seem foolishly optimistic to hope Smith (or another of the back ups) can provide value as a low-risk target McCoy knows how to find when needed. We'll learn more Monday, but I suspect that will be the goal around which the coaches make decisions going forward.

The time to find a running game is running out. Though Texas fans this morning are rightly buzzing about Colt McCoy and worrying about the situation at tight end, the biggest story not getting much air time is the third-straight mediocre rushing effort rushing the football. Though McCoy certainly did his part and second-teamers John Chiles & Cody Johnson mopped up quite nicely, the evidence against Vondrell McGee as a viable every-down player continues to mount. The sophomore picked up just 30 yards on 8 carries and once again seemed out of place in Texas' 11 formation (1 RB, 1 TE), where his north-south, from-the-I style awkwardly tries to navigate the floating, zone block schemes of our running game.

McGee has now passed the century mark in career carries--more than enough to see that he's not well-suited to be the primary back in Texas' current rushing scheme. Since Texas isn't going to put Colt under center to accommodate McGee, we're left to worry about Fozzy Whittaker's knee, which troublingly kept him out of action again on Saturday, despite the hurricane-induced off week. Unless Colt plans on shattering every passing record in the Division 1 books, Texas will at some point need to provide some help from the tailback. Only Arkansas now stands between Texas and the opening Big 12 slate (rankings as seen in Week 4 Coaches Poll):

at #33 Colorado (3-0)
vs #2 Oklahoma in Dallas (3-0)
vs #5 Missouri (4-0)
vs #28 Oklahoma State (3-0)
vs #9 Texas Tech (4-0)

Deep man discovered? Jordan Shipley was regularly mentioned as one of the top wide receiver candidates to provide a deep threat, thanks in large part to his entering the 2008 season healthy--a first since he arrived in Austin after a record-setting high school career. So far, so good as the ninth-year junior has averaged 19.8 yards on his 12 catches on the season, 4 of which have gone for touchdowns. MB-TF.com doesn't track Yards After Catch, but if we had access to that data, it would show Shipley's done a terrific job catching the ball either already in space or making the right moves to get there in a hurry.

Can it last? There are at least two reasons to think it can: First, think back quickly over the last three years to recall who was on the receiving end of the prettiest double-move touchdowns in Colt McCoy's career. Off the top of my head, I come up with one to Cosby (UTEP) and the rest to Shipley (OU '06, Tech '06, Iowa State '07, to name a few). Second, Shipley's athleticism when healthy is noticeable. Coupling the two, you get a smart, quick, and fast-enough receiver who runs great routes--which is enough to be a consistent big play receiver in NCAA football.

With none of the young receivers looking ready or, where they might be, ignored in the game plan, Shipley's ability to sustain this role looks critical.

This can't last, you know. Both the SEC and Big 12 continue to clog up the top spots in this week's rankings, with 4 teams from each conference among the Top 10. In the Coaches' Poll:

BIG 12: #2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech
SEC: #3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama

Also ranked in the Top 25 are #16 Auburn and #25 Vanderbilt from the SEC, as well as #18 Kansas from the Big 12. Lurking among the teams receiving votes are Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kentucky.

Brain's Game: Texas 52 - Rice 10

Horn Brain — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 05:38:04 -0000

I'll update this later tonight with my take on the game from my seat, but for now, here's a few choice quotes:

Rice Head Coach David Bailiff:

On what prompted the offense's false starts: It was a lot louder than it was at Vanderbilt and louder than we tried to simulate in practice. It was a great venue for a football game, and I think that had a lot to do with it more than anything. The one fourth down at the 50 where we had the bad snap...that was crowd noise.

You can make a difference, Texas. Be freaking loud.

Colt "Baby Tebow" McCoy:

On surpassing Major Applewhite on the all-time TD passes list: It was awesome. I think that he [Major Applewhite] actually called the play. I honestly didn't think about it until after the game. It's a blessing, but we still have a long season ahead of us, and I hope we get to throw a lot more.

You don't say?

Sergio "Freakin" Kindle:

On whether or not Coach Will Muschamp let the pass rushers have a little more freedom in the second half: He basically just told us whoever could get there, get there. In the second half, we knew we weren't getting to the quarterback and he was completing passes, so we knew we had to get there and slow down his rhythm.

Chase Clement will sit straight up in bed tonight in a cold sweat when he remembers what Kindle whispered in his ear.

Cedric "Socrates" Dockery:

On the offense's performance on the season so far: I think we're doing well. The sky is the limit for us. We can do a lot better. We still had some mistakes in the protection, but other than that, I thought we played well.

I think the O-line gave up one, nearly two sacks and would have given up a safety if anyone academically eligible to play at Rice was also athletically elligible to tackle Vondrell McGee. So yeah, you can do better. This is better.

Your thoughts while you wait?

[Note by Horn Brain, 09/21/08 1:34 AM CDT ] Read my full Brain's Game post after the break.

It appears that 54b was off by a factor of two in predicting that the Nerd Herd would 3.141592654...-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust their way to a final tally of 3.141592654... points. They actually averaged 6.3 ypa passing, almost exactly 2*pi. Perhaps if you transformed their play diagrams into radial coordinates they would find the endzone a few more times, but I doubt that the change would do much to alleviate the effects of the Owls' low offensive and high defensive Knudsen numbers. Plus, our dudes are like, way bigger than theirs.

The recap starts with Colt. What a difference a year makes, eh? This time last year we were wondering if Colt had hit his ceiling, should we put in Chiles and build for next year, has anyone ever seen Chiles throw a pass, I don't care because he's obviously better than Colt. Today I heard the same sorts of fans who were leading the "Colt sucks" charge last year screaming "put Colt back in!" during Chiles' series. How about his rush TD? He bowled over two guys and didn't fumble. While I'd really rather Colt slide and let Cody Johnson do the bowling, you've got to get just a little pumped as a team when your QB runs over two defenders on the goal line. Colt has been as close to perfect as we could ask for so far this season, and, knock on wood, that continues indefinitely.

For Colt's shredding of opposing teams to continue in the realm of BCS conference teams, the offensive line has to be more consistent in keeping bad guys out of our backfield. I realize that Rice blitzed more than their tendencies against us, Greg, but they're still Rice, which means that we should not have Colt sacked once and nearly twice, nor should it take Mcgee breaking an easy tackle for a non-Rice LB to avoid a safety. You saw the effects of poor OL play on two straight plays in the first quarter: First, McGee was swallowed before he could take a step in the backfield after the shotgun handoff, then we had Colt 2007 reappear for a moment and chuck a duck after running for his life from the OMG UNBLOCKABLE RICE D! Naturally, we dominated them for much, much more of the game than we showed weakness, but I fear that those kinds of plays could be frequent enough against OU, Mizzou and the like to kill drives or cause turnovers. Consistently good to be great, Mack.

Cody Johnson was your most impressive rusher by a wide margin today. The asterisk that must be placed beside that statement is that CoJo played almost exclusively in the second half, long after Rice had dried up into crispy little Quaker cakes with cinnamon sugar. The fact that he's been so consistently effect in the role of "bludgeoning club" makes me want to see him get a chance against a fresh defense. He would make the shotgun triple option very deadly by forcing the defense to stop for a moment and consider that Colt may have just handed the ball to a 255 pound cudgel with wheels. Meanwhile, Colt and Fozzy are debating over which one of them is going to score this TD.

Blaine Irby was absolutely maimed on the drive that would yield Colt's record-breaking TD pass to Cosby. I think that the reason he was injured was not simply because of the low tackle, as I think that's the only way I've seen a TE tackled for the past two years, but rather because he dropped the pass. I think he has a routine in his mind that's something like: Catch and secure football, defend against knee-splosion, ..., Heisman. Unfortunately, step one took longer than expected, and he didn't have time to protect his knee from a hit that he's taken at least three or four times already this season. Result? Carnage. We may not have a TE receiving threat this year, unless they want to move over one of our big guys from WR or throw passes to a 295 pound converted tackle. This is a big loss for us this year and we all hope Irby's career isn't over at Texas.

All I can say about the receivers is that either Greg Davis needs to quit whimpering about that INT Buckner gave up at UTEP and call some real plays for the young guys or Colt needs to get them together and run some serious drills to build some chemistry. We are not going to have 200 yards passing if our whole attack is Shipley and Cosby and running backs against OU. Hooray! Shipley, adversity, Cosby, consistency. We need a serious playmaker at WR.

Flea flicker? Seriously? That crap only works in Tecmo Bowl (Pass 2! Pass 2!). I think the point of that play is to open up the running game by forcing the safeties to at least consider their assignments before selling out against the run. I don't know that it would have worked against OU, however, as our running game hasn't shown the ability to strike fear into any DB with more than one schollie offer yet. If a team decides to clamp down on our running game, however, we now have a few ways to hurt them. This is a new development, please stay tuned for updates as events warrant.

According to Kindle (above) and also at least one other DL, Muschamp unleashed the pass rush in the second half to great effect. Why the hell don't we do this more? Whatever, I'm not going to second guess a guy who can hold anybody out of the endzone for 12 plays from inside the 5. That was very, very encouraging to see. Last year we would have said "Aw, screw this" and let them score after three plays. Then Lokey and Okam would go study for their LSAT on the offense's next drive.

The defensive back play was all over the place. Earl Thomas can't tackle and looks lost in pass coverage on occasion, Blake Gideon continues to disappear for long stretches (I can't tell if that's really good or really bad with these guys, but I'll go with good since I like what I've seen so far from Blake), Chykie Brown tackles like a freaking linebacker (not a 5'11" dude from Texas, either), and I'm completely fine with him starting over Beasley now, and Palmer alternates between making smart plays and getting juked out of his jock by a quarterback. Chykie is my new favorite DB, simply because of the way he mans up for the tackle.

Kindle is the most athletic linebacker, Muckelroy is the smartest, and Bobino has the least reason to be out there. I saw Sam Acho outrun him and he's too freakin' short to matter at the line when he gets blocked on one of his patented kamikaze blitzes. Norton may not be much of an immediate improvement, but he at least has the potential to be not a black hole of suck sitting right in the middle of our D. Keenan Robinson had a play where he tackled Clement by simply throwing a tackle or a TE into him. Want.

The crowd was good on third and fourth downs, but that was about it. Two most annoying things: Yelling TEXAS! literally twenty times and getting no reply whatsoever, and killing a good round of TEXAS! FIGHT! because we stopped to boo Rice when they came in. Sheer idiocy. You'd think AT&T made more money than FSN during the game with the amount of cell phone usage. "Overheard"-style quote of the game?

Girl 1: "So why do you even come to the games?"

Girl 2: " Well, I like 'em, but I need a really good game, you know? Like when we won the Rose Bowl in the Bowl Game (?), that was f***ing awesome, but I just get bored at the other ones."

Girl 2 may be waiting quite a while for a good game, in that case.

Final note: the Godzillatron played a cool intro video with James Street highlights and no one knew what was going on. Girl 2 asked why we used to wear more red "back then". Whills is rolling over in his grave... er, bed.

By The Numbers

Peter Bean — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:50:02 -0000

96 -- Season opening wins in Texas program history.

5 -- Times in the last 6 seasons Texas has scored 50+ to open the year.

29 -- Yards covered on John Chiles' first career touchdown pass to James Kirkendoll.

33 -- Consecutive games Quan "Velcro" Cosby has caught a pass.

40 -- Yards on Hunter Lawrence first career field goal.

3 -- Scholarship kickers on the Texas roster (Lawrence, Tucker, Bailey).

4 -- Times out of 4 Colt McCoy has punted and pinned the opponent inside the 20.

98,053 -- People in attendance Saturday night, the largest crowd to watch a football game in the history of the state.

47 -- Consecutive games sold out at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

51 -- Number of minutes shorter this year's season opener (2 hours, 23 minutes) was than last year's (3 hours, 14 minutes). [Or not. --ed]

2 -- Trips inside the red zone out of 4 which resulted in points for Florida Atlantic.

0 -- Sacks recorded by Texas and Florida Atlantic.

5.2 -- Yards per carry by Vondrell McGee, 20% above last season's average.

15 -- Blaine Irby receptions predicted by Kirk Bohls in 2008.

7 -- Blaine Irby receptions in the season opener.

54 -- Career touchdown passes for Colt McCoy, moving him past James Brown (53) for 3rd all-time at Texas.

60 -- Career touchdown passes by Major Applewhite, tops all-time at Texas.

13 -- Consecutive completions by McCoy during the opener, two shy of the school record.

1.6 -- Yards allowed per rush by Texas Saturday.

67 -- Yards rushing (2.6 per attempt) by UTEP in their season opener against Buffalo.

3 -- Interceptions thrown by UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe against UB.

14 -- Points UTEP was outscored by in each of the 1st and 4th quarters against UB.

0 -- Tickets still available for Saturday's game in El Paso.