SB Nation - Brandon Collins

A Time to Celebrate, A Time to Reflect

GhostofBigRoy — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:24:57 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Longhorns may have needed a few lucky breaks to overcome the Cornhuskers and the incomparable Ndamukong Suh and any proper analysis of the game will reveal a litany of complaints regarding every facet of the offense. But with more than a month until Texas faces off against Alabama in Pasadena, there will be plenty of time for to analyze, further analyze, and overanalyze the Nebraska game and everything related to the match up between the SEC champion and the Big 12 champion.

Today, however, is a day for celebration, for reflection. For celebrating a team that accomplished a feat that only the 2005 team accomplished under Mack Brown -- beating both Oklahoma and A&M in the same season while finishing undefeated and winning the Big 12 championship. For celebrating a team that replaced three starters along the defensive line, lost a starting linebacker to injury in the first game, and absolutely counted upon improvement from the entire secondary and role players like Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Kheeston Randall, and Ben Alexander. For celebrating a team that replaced two starting receivers after the departure of ultra-reliable Quan Cosby and the academic ineligibility of Brandon Collins, who broke out in the final games of 2008.

For celebrating a team that discovered leaders in Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, and Roddrick Muckelroy. For celebrating the effort of Marquise Goodwin against Oklahoma, Colt McCoy's year-saving tackle after his late-game interception, interceptions by Earl Thomas, Curtis Brown, and Blake Gideon against Oklahoma State, exorcising the demons of a certain Halloween past. For celebrating Hunter Lawrence, one of the greatest kickers in Texas history. For celebrating a team the lived up to the highest of standards -- perfection. Losing was not an option and this team did not lose.

Today is a day for reflection. Reflection on the how the seasons ended in 2006 and 2007, with the Longhorns dropping games to Kansas State and Texas A&M late in the season, causing both teams to lose opportunities to play for the Big 12 championship and make it to big-money BCS games. Reflection on why those teams fell apart -- mostly the complete and utter inability of those defenses to stop the passing game and imperfect defensive coordinators. Reflection on the best decision that Mack Brown has made as head coach at Texas in his hire of Will Muscahmp as defensive coordinator and the subsequent decsion to name him the next head coach of the Longhorns. Reflection on the other hard decisions that Brown made to forge this team into a champion -- bringing Major Applewhite back to Austin, moving Ken Rucker into an administrative position, instituting a higher level of accountability, looking hard at himself as a coach.

Most of all, it's a day for reflection on just how far the Longhorns have come since last season. Reflection on the feeling of complete and utter lack of control, having relinquished all power to determine the ultimate destination of the team with the last-second loss in Lubbock. Reflection on the 45-35 campaign, all the politicking and arguments about the meaning of head-to-head victories and resume ranking, planes with banners flying over stadiums, accusations of whininess directed towards a heartbroken fanbase. Reflection on the hatred of Bob Stoops after risking the health of his starters to string together 60-point scoring games. Reflection on how karma can be a bitch, can't it Big Game Bob? Reflection on how 0.128 is now in the past, just a small wound now healing, a footnote to history. Reflection on just how hard this team worked to avoid a repeat of last season, how hard they worked to keep their BCS destiny in their own hands.

Yes, today Burnt Orange Nation must celebrate and reflect, look back upon the road now traveled, full of victories and nary a defeat. The cycle is now complete -- Texas returns to the Rose Bowl four years after Vince Young stood there in confetti, having won one of the greatest college football games ever played. After the loss by Florida, the Longhorns have the nation's longest winning streak, now standing at 17 games. Not only that, but Tim Tebow's college career is all but finished, with the lasting memories an impotent speech to his defense and him crying on national television like a six-year-old Sooner fan. After a long season, Texas is undefeated and headed to Pasadena. There is time in the coming month for all the worry a Longhorn fan desires, so what is there to do today but celebrate and reflect, with a strong emphasis on the former?

Crossfire Q&A: Texas

RPT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Fear this man. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The game against Texas this week has given us the chance to collaborate with one of the best sites in the business, as we welcome GhostofBigRoy from Burnt Orange Nation here to RMN to give us a better idea of what to expect from the Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

RMN: Before the season, my colleague Bill said he expected a regression from Colt McCoy's numbers, and the stats so far seem to have vindicated him in many respects. What's been the difference between Colt '08 v. Colt '09?

BON: It's not a simple answer, so I'll go ahead and divide it into a couple of points. First, the major change is defensive adjustments. OU blitzed a lot during the first half and so did Wyoming at times, but most teams have sat with two deep safeties and forced Texas to complete passes underneath.

Last season, Texas did that well and could move methodically down the field with the controlled passing game, but the failure to do so this year relates to the second factor, which is the loss of Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, two players McCoy relied on to complete third-down passes, in the case of Cosby also the hitch passes that he could turn into solid gains and Collins as his hot receivers on blitzes. McCoy has not established that level of comfort with the current receivers, who have struggled to create separation and, frankly, McCoy didn't help much early in the season because he was uncharacteristically inaccurate at points early in the year.

Those struggles have passed now, but the bottom line is that the receiving corps, notably John Chiles and James Kirkendoll, has been a disappointment overall and defenses have caught up with the Texas offense unveiled last season against Oklahoma, particularly in defending the crossing routes Texas used to convert many third downs last season and either disguising coverages to confuse McCoy's pre-snap reads or also using their coverage look to manipulate his read into something easily defensible.

RMN: The Texas defense is giving up an absurdly low 3.6 yards per play, tied for tops in the nation. How is the credit divided here? Has Texas amassed enough talent that schemes don't matter, or does Will "Boom" Muschamp get a lion's share of the credit too?

BON: Dividing the credit equally doesn't seem to be fair to the job that Will Muschamp has done at Texas. The recruiting has played a big part of it - guys like Sergio Kindle and Eddie Jones were the bluest of blue chips coming out of high school, but the staff did an excellent job identifying underrated talents like Roddrick Muckelroy, from a school East Texas school, and the Acho brothers, who played at a private school in Dallas. Don't underestimate, then, the collective recruiting the staff has done.

There is a ton of talent on that defense and none of those players were recruited by Muschamp. That being said, what Muschamp has turned this defense into is completely of his own creation, particularly Kindle, who was unbelievably lost in the shuffle during his first two years on campus - Muschamp took his talent and maximized it in a way the previous defensive coordinators had not. The previous coaches wanted to make him into a linebacker who could drop into coverage. Muschamp unleashed him on opposing quarterbacks because he recognized that Kindle is best served playing downhill, the skill that made him so highly regarded coming out of high school in the first place. In that way, Kindle is perhaps a perfect example of the overall effect Muschamp has had - players are now in a position to succeed and they are doing so.

RMN: The benching of James Kirkendoll isn't much of a surprise after his Zidane-esque headbutt in Dallas, but what gives on the benching of John Chiles (who looks like a freak athlete) and Dan Buckner (who I thought was a mismatch nightmare and one of UT's biggest weapons)? Is Texas deep enough at receiver that it really doesn't matter, or is Mack Brown just trying to send a quick message?

BON: The issue for Chiles is simple - he hasn't been producing and can't consistently get separation in his routes. Unfortunately, whatever athleticism he has, and it was certainly of great repute coming to Texas, it just hasn't translated onto the field for whatever reason. As for Buckner, Mack Brown said that he's concerned about his knee, but really Buckner is going to lose some snaps to Greg Smith because the coaching staff seems to desire a greater emphasis on the running game. That's the short answer. If anyone is interested in the treatise I wrote about the issue, it's here.

Basically, the answer to your question is both. Brown is trying to send a message (if it's a message to Buckner it's to block better), but the main thing to take from this is that the coaching staff finally decided it was time to let talented players like true freshman and two-time Junior Olympic long-jump champion Marquise Goodwin, who can certainly create separation with his blend of incredible speed and ability to get into and out of cuts, and Malcolm Williams, the star of last year's Tech game who has had trouble getting into the field this season, reportedly because of a combination of dropped balls and less-than-ideal work ethic at times in practice.

RMN: Can ANY team expect to run on Texas this year, much less a Missouri team that's been struggling on the ground all season?

BON: Looking down the line, Oklahoma State is a concern because they racked up more than 200 yards last year against a unit that didn't get run on much, just like this current one, and Alabama and Florida are both concerns, for slightly different reasons in a possible national championship game appearance. Other than that, the flat answer is no. Texas has given up 29 yards rushing in the last four games. Muschamp puts a big emphasis on stopping the running game on first and second downs to create tough situations for the offense, but still manages not to give up many big plays in the passing game on early downs. Missouri will have an extremely difficult time running the football against Texas, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

RMN: Seeing what you've seen this season, if you were the opponent (in this case, Mizzou), how would you go about attacking the Texas defense? How would you defend the Texas offense?

BON: Can I pass on trying to formulate a plan to attack the Texas defense? Thinking about this question makes me extremely glad that the Longhorns won't ever have to face a Muschamp-coached defense. Teams haven't had much success at all this season doing much of anything. Colorado had success on two touchdowns isolating a tight end on a linebacker in coverage, but Muschamp adjusts so quickly I'm not sure he's going to allow that to happen again and I don't know anything about Missouri having a threat in that aspect of the game like the two excellent tight ends they've had recently.

Other than that, Tech had some success with double moves against Chykie and Curtis Brown, but on one of the plays I'm thinking of with Chykie giving up a touchdown, Muschamp blamed the blitz not getting there fast enough. In fact, if Texas sends a couple blitzers and the Mizzou line can hold for a second, Gabbert could be able to find something downfield and that is probably their best chance for a big play. Really though, other than a couple breakdowns in concentration by Chykie, the secondary hasn't given up much this season, a huge change from last year. As for as defending the Texas offense, I think I would blitz some on early downs to try to get the Longhorns behind the chains and then sit back in coverage in obvious passing situations and keep everything in front. In my opinion, that's pretty much the book on the Texas offense, but it may be changing now with an increased emphasis on the running game and downfield passing off of play action. If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, though, I would just play by the book until Texas proves that it can run the ball consistently.

RMN: Bonus -- Should we hide our women and children when Sergio Kindle lines up across from the Missouri offensive line?

BON: Kindle is a beast, but I'm not going to predict any serious threats to the health of Blaine Gabbert just because the two times I've done that this season, Kindle was effective, but had relatively quiet games in terms of massive, Taylor Potts-like hits on the quarterback. Don't get me wrong, it's safe to say that Tiger fans should be afraid of Kindle, but with the way that the rest of the Texas defense is playing right now, it's really the whole unit that should be downright terrifying.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

---

Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Talkin' Texas: 2009 Longhorns Football at the Quarter Pole

Peter Bean — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

PB: Been a while since we've Talked Texas, my friend. I have to say I'm glad to be doing so under the circumstances we are. What's your quarter-term evaluation of the team?

Big Roy: Despite a few hiccups along the way, mostly involving McCoy interceptions, the first half against Wyoming, and some continued struggles with identity in the running game. I have to feel extremely happy about where the team is. The defense just rocked UTEP and teams are falling by the wayside every weekend in the Race to the Roses.

PB: We can quibble (and because we're unhealthily obsessed, undoubtedly will) about the minutiae, but I don't think there's any way around describing Texas' position heading into this week as pretty near perfect. I wonder whether we're having a different conversation if Texas' third game of the season was against UCF instead of Tech, but that scheduling change was a boon and I'm not sure we could ask for much more heading out of bye week.

Moving to specifics: Who's your favorite offensive player so far?

Big Roy: Unhealthily obsessed, huh? I can't quibble with the second part, but my health is quite excellent, sir, thank you. I believe Austin, Texas agrees with me well indeed. I would have to say that Dan Buckner's contributions to the offense right now ranks on top -- he's given the Longhorns that threat over the middle that they need in the Davis passing game and he's just such a mismatch in that flex tight end position, but not only that, he has great hands and McCoy seems to trust him.

PB: Your girlfriend says otherwise, slacker. (What?)

I will say that Dan Buckner is indisputably healthy, though -- kid is an awesome athlete just beginning to come into his own as a player. And I'm with you, if McCoy is the de facto MVP and Newton the surprise spark, Buckner has been my favorite offensive player so far.

Let's look forward a bit now: after four games who are you seeing as improved and/or with the potential to break out? I'll throw Tray Allen's name into the ring, for starters. He's taken the Step this year.

Big Roy: Mack Brown mentioned that this week and it's great to see Allen finally contributing and living up to the considerable hype that accompanied him to campus. My answer to that question is going to be a little bit vague, though -- I'm looking for a third receiver to break out. I don't know if it's going to be Kirkendoll or Malcolm Williams or maybe even a guy like Marquise Goodwin if McCoy can establish the same rapport with him that Gilbert already somewhat preternaturally does.

Maybe it's John Chiles. To me, McCoy is just too good not to establish a high level of comfort with one of those guys.

PB: How about Brian Davis? I mean Brandon Collins? I mean.... nevermind.

Big Roy: Facepalm.

From the Brian Davis school of academic progress.

PB: I think that's a good wish for a development we see soon, and I'll add a healthy Fozzy Whittaker to that list. I think McGee and Newton are perfectly fine, but I can't shake my optimism about Whittaker as a difference-maker. (This makes me a tried and true Texas fan, of course: the best player is always the one not playing.)

Big Roy: There is a Flavor of the Week spot open for the Mythical Fozzy creature this week with his name on it. I'm really excited about possibly being able to get through around half the season or so without having to repeat one yet. Hopefully I won't have to start stretching it soon.

I have to say I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the artist recently known as Fragile Fozzy (dadgummit, I said I wasn't going to use that for a while...) until he manages to produce for a couple games in a row. The potential though, why, it's mythic.

Drink that Kool-Aid, PB! You should get a pimp-style Longhorn chalice for that

PB: If you'd given the Flavor of the Week award to Jamison Whatshisname last week, you'd have a damn good shot at it. Live and learn...

Big Roy: I'm hoping that Jamison makes an appearance at CU this weekend, but if not, there's always UCF...

PB: It'll be fun when Berryhill outrushes Darrell Scott in DKR.

Jamison Berryhill: Not cursed.

Okay, defense. A radio guy asked me the other day if this was Texas' best defense ever. I told him to check the '83 archives and wait 'til the season is over, but it's not a stretch to think this unit might finish the season as Mack Brown's best-ever unit.

Big Roy: Ha! Hmm...I don't think I'm qualified to make that comparison -- whills is probably a better bet for something like that, but this defense does have potential greatness written all over it. It's no secret that I love me some Aaron Williams and to see a playmaker like Emmanuel Acho come on -- if there are players not protecting the football when he's around, it's got a good chance of coming out. And I think that is why this defense has a chance to be so good -- it's like the light switch has come on the last several weeks in terms of converting opportunities into turnovers.

On top of that, I think there is still room for growth as well. The only thing that concerns me is depth at defensive tackle and safety.

PB: This is why the Tech scheduling switch was so important. They got it going that Saturday night against the Red Raiders. UTEP paid the price.

(Taylor Potts: Excuse me?)

Big Roy: No doubt and it was a hefty Price for UTEP. Can you believe that ol' Mikey got paid for that performance? Guess he made amends last week. And that scheduling change really did work out well for the Longhorns.

PB: I hope you're running a set of stairs to punish yourself for that pun. Go on, I'll type while you repent.

Big Roy: I've got a nice hill beside my place. Does that count? The two of us have had some previous battles...

PB: I think the most comforting thing defensively has to be the exceptional performance we've seen from the defensive line. Seeing Eddie Jones and Sergio Kindle upright bookending the line is so sexy.

Big Roy: Jones is playing with the intensity of someone who has almost had football taken away from him. Perhaps because he has. I feel great for him being out on the field and contributing in such a meaningful way. Why is it taking three years for all these former five stars? Jones, Allen, Chiles, Kindle. That's the start of a trend right there.

PB: Do 2006-07 even count for those guys?

Big Roy: Yuck. Almost seems like they shouldn't, right? I certainly can't blame Kindle. Jesus, I just had some Killebrew - Bobino - Derry flashbacks. How did this get started again? Make it stop. But about Kindle -- that freaky leg plant is just sick. I tried to demonstrate what it looked like for someone the other day, didn't work very well. Re-watching that Tech game he just wore that tackle out. Okay, yes, these memories are much more pleasant. Whew.

PB: Yeah probably better not do that. You'll wind up like DJ Grant. Your knee no like.

Big Roy: Plus I probably look stupid, too. So there's whatever pride I hope to maintain as well.

PB: Moving back from the line, I have forgotten several times already that Jared Norton is a Texas Longhorn. And it has little to do with him, really. Robinson and Acho are just exceptionally talented and clearly ready for an exciting three-year run.

Big Roy: Definitely some flashes from both of them. Let's put Jordan Hicks in there, too, shall we? But I digress. Like said, though, flashes from them. The potential that is still there is sick. I mentioned this to someone the other day, but can we just make a football team filled only with Texans of Nigerian descent? How fun would that be? Pretty good, too.

PB: There's not much to debate about the defense -- very good, on the verge of truly great, and with championship potential. The Muschamp hire has been moderately pleasing.

Also pleasing: the special teams! Mack's had some good ST units before, but this group is outrageous.

Big Roy: DJ Monroe. You don't really need to say much more than that, but Shipley has been great, Tucker has been excellent besides the dumb play against Wyoming and truly does have the left-footed rugby punt down. And Malcolm Williams -- it's been a huge disappointment that he hasn't contributed more on offense, but his work on special teams is truly valuable. Hopefully the team is improving a bit in kickoff coverage, but it's hard to be good at that right now, as Brown is currently preaching.

PB: There's your third receiver, by the way. Davis needs to quit monkeying around with Shipley at split end, tell Malcolm he trusts him, and let he and Colt work it out. His blocking alone is plenty valuable; the catches will come.

Big Roy: It would be nice if it were that simple, but I'm not sure it is. I think Davis likes Shipley commanding a safety deep on his side of the field because it frees up routes on the other side, particularly Buckner in the middle. Of course, I like Williams is they decide to leave him one-on-one over there and blocking on weakside runs, but I just want him on the field right now, even just in the slot because he can help out blocking there too. Especially on a play like the speed option out of the WildHorn. I definitely agree about him just needing to play and until Kirkendoll starts making some more plays, I don't have any problem with taking him off the field for a while. More Malcolm, please!

PB: It's just not possible to say you can't stretch the safety with Williams, so if that's it, Davis is a fool. I actually think it's a lack of trust in Williams and that because his blocking is superior he's useful in the slot. Nevertheless, the better play in my mind is to get Williams back to split end, return Shipley to the slot, where those two have their highest ceilings. Of course, the non-con season would have been the time to work this out, but we're quibbling.

I know we've both got CU posts in the works, so let's wrap this briefly: Any predictions you wanna make?

Big Roy: There has been a little bit more work in the last two games with Williams at the X and Shipley in the slot, so I think it could be coming. Agree about the lack of trust, not sure if it's more with the coaches or McCoy, but the drops in limited action don't help -- that's two, with one intercepted against Tech late.

Okay, turning to CU now?

PB: Yeah, any predictions for Saturday?

Big Roy: Well, it seems that you have already gone with more rushing yards for Berryhill than Scott and I think that's a tough one to top. Mostly, I just think Colorado tries to run the ball to shorten the game and not make the final score look as bad as it could, but I think Texas loads up and forces a lot of 3rd and longs for rag-armed lil Hawk and crew and that's when the fun starts. Not for lil Hawk, though. It gets ugly early for the Buffs. (Did you know that lil Hawk is a lot like Colt?)

PB: Hard to predict anything other than a comfortable margin of victory. I'll save my full thoughts for my post, but I'm mostly going to be watching to see Texas attack the game with purpose. It would be a mistake to "save up" for OU.

Big Roy: I agree. This is serious preparation time. Unleash the Predator and the WildHorn. Stampede!

Okay, that was maybe a little cheesy.

PB: Are you auditioning for a columnist job at a newspaper? You're on a roll today, buddy.

Big Roy: I could be the next Kirk Bohls! Yes, I can! Yes, I can! (starting chant)

PB: And we're off the tracks. A sign to cut it off. Enjoy the weekend, sir. Hook 'em!

Big Roy: Indeed. And you as well, my friend in Longhorn football obsession. I'll be gettin' my horns up.

Off-Week Injury Report

40AS — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 03:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

Once again, the Longhorns count their blessings as there but for the grace of God go we...

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Another high-profile Big XII quarterback went down this week, with Baylor star and PB's favorite non-Texas player Robert Griffin tearing his ACL. We feel terrible for both Griffin and the Baylor fans, who entered the season with higher-than-usual expectations largely due to Griffin's proven prowess. Here's to a quick recovery for the young man.

Thankfully, there is again a dearth of news on the burnt orange injury front as the Longhorns remain, on the whole, relatively healthy. (We knocked on wood as soon as that sentence went down, we promise). Christian Scott and Brandon Collins remain out for their academic issues, though at least we got a little bit of good news on that front before the Tech game.

No one is listed as "out" right now for the Colorado game. Fozzy Whittaker is still questionable with his knee issues, although honestly his chances of busting into the backfield playing time mix even if healthy get bleaker and bleaker with each Tre Newton carry. Mason Walters is also listed as questionable as of now.

That's it, and hopefully the 'Horns can rest and stay healthy during the off week.

[Update]: Both of the services are reporting that freshman defensive back Eryon Barnett will miss the rest of the season after injuring his shoulder. Some tough luck for Barnett, who tore his ACL last fall and worked hard to get ready for the season. --GoBR--

Morning Coffee

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Tre' Newton, Texas running back flavor of the week. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Wyoming defensive strategy helps slow Longhorns. Last week, Mack Brown talked in a press conference about how surprised the coaching staff was last season when teams kept on blitzing Colt McCoy and blitzing McCoy some more. Brown said that teams revealed concern over allowing McCoy to stand in the pocket and pick apart a zone defense. Wyoming might have seen that comment and decided to try a different game plan at times, rushing only three and dropping eight into coverage. Early in the game, McCoy and the Texas offense looked confused by the look as the Heisman contender often locked in on Jordan Shipley and couldn't find his roommate and long-time friend. Then, at other times, Wyoming did blitz McCoy and often left the Texas offensive line confused and struggling with their pass protection, leading to many occasions in the first half where McCoy had to scramble to try to make a play.

Greg Davis responded in the first half by putting in Greg Smith and going max protection at times. Wyoming responded by dropping eight into coverage once again and leaving McCoy with few options in the passing game. Part of that falls on Davis for becoming conservative when he needs to keep Dan Buckner on the field. At the same time, does Colt McCoy miss Brandon Collins a little bit as his hot receiver? It's certainly possible, especially considering how well Collins played late in the season.

In the second half, the Longhorns took advantage of a tired Cowboy defense that just didn't have the depth to play with Texas for more than 25-30 minutes. The concern moving forward is with the offensive line in pass protection, especially against blitzes. Opponents now have some footage of how to get to McCoy, just like BYU exposed weaknesses in Oklahoma's pass protection with delayed blitzes. Texas struggled against delayed blitzes last season as well and Davis and the offensive staff need to spend a lot of time this week working on correcting the problems or McCoy is going to take some big hits this season. Expect more teams to drop eight into coverage early in the game to try to keep McCoy from getting into a rhythm.

Running back flavor of the week: Tre' Newton. Before the start of the season, it was Vondrell McGee, supposedly more comfortable with the scheme. Last week, it was DJ Monroe after his strong performance running the football against the WarHawks. This week, it's Tre' Newton, the improbably small son of the former Cowboy offensive lineman.

Perhaps more so than DJ Monroe, who will remain a spot player for the conceivable future, Newton has a chance to not only earn the role as third-down back extraordinaire, but also earn 10 or more carries a game as the feature back. The reason is his versatility, which isn't exactly news, but hadn't truly been demonstrated on the field until Saturday. Even though Newton dropped one pass, he caught another that nearly converted a third-and-long situation and carried eight times for 62 yards and his first touchdown at Texas. Most impressively, he displayed excellent vision in hitting his creases quickly and at speed -- he looked supremely comfortable in the scheme. Furthermore, he blocked well, opening up a hole for Colt McCoy on a quarterback draw and throwing block downfield on Dan Buckner's third-down touchdown catch and run, while holding up well in pass protection.

Is he the answer to all of the problems in the running game? No, but he is a faster, seemingly more talented version of Chris Ogbonnaya and if he can continue to do the same things that OG did last year, hitting the hole hard, catching the ball out of the backfield, and blocking well, both in pass protection and on any draws Texas wants to run with McCoy, then it should be enough for the Longhorns to get to Pasadena and have an opportunity to win a national championship.

Bipolar special teams. After a blocked punt, another nearly blocked punt, a failed fake field goal, and a failed fake punt, it would be easy to conclude that the special teams were terrible against Wyoming. While there were undoubtedly bad, bad, bad moments, the special teams play ended up simply being bipolar.

Justin Tucker, when he wasn't making the unilateral decision to try to pick up a first down deep in Texas territory, was kicking balls out of the end zone in the thin air of Laramie, with only one returnable kick the whole game. He also debuted his left-footed rugby punt and delivered a 34-yarder inside the Wyoming ten yardline. DJ Monroe helped consolidate momentum at the start of the second half with a 41-yard return into Wyoming territory to give the offense a short field. Malcolm Williams had a 25-yard return and a 35-yard return, providing a nice element of physicality to the return game, as well as providing his steady, but underrated, work blocking on special teams and as a gunner on the punt team. Returning punts, Jordan Shipley averaged 10 yards a return, with another nice return called back because of penalty.

Of course, it will be the bad plays that draw the majority of attention, and they were certainly bad. Brown apparently told Tucker last season that he could go for the first down if he sees an opening in the defense and can make it without being touched. After being chewed out during hafltime, he probably won't be doing that again. Dave Christensen commented after the game that his coaching staff had seen something on film that they could exploit to get pressure on John Gold and almost blocked two punts as a result. Antwan Cobb has to do a better job as the personal protector -- replacing Rashad Bobino -- not commiting to a double team before he knows if there is someone else comingup the middle. The coaches should be able to get that fixed this week -- it's not too complicated. As for the fake field goal, several things stand out. One, the Longhorns should be able to pick up one yard in the jumbo package if they really want it. Secondly, the situation seemed ripe for a fake and it seemed even more likely when the long snapper walked back to Shipley before the play to ask him something or make a clarification -- even more indication. Mack Brown also said on Monday that the call got messed up and the play wasn't executed properly. It certainly looked like it.

The good news is that Texas is no longer as leaky as a sieve on kickoffs and Duane Akina is back coaching the special teams. The mistakes should be fixed this week and the special teams should go right back to providing the Longhorns with an advantage for the rest of the season with the embarassment of riches that Texas possesses in terms of options in the return games, a fantastic gunner in Macolm Williams, two accurate place kickers, and options in the punting game, including a kicker with the ability to rugby punt with either foot. Despite the problems in Laramie, you can bet that Frank Beamer gets jealous watching Texas on special teams.

Tracking: defensive tackles. Remember when the defensive tackle position was such a cause for concern, way back before the season started? After two games, those concerns are now squarely in the background as the play of the offensive line, the lack of gaudy stats by Sergio Kindle, and the three currently ineligible players draw the majority of the attention. And there's a reason for that -- the Longhorns have been excellent in the middle of the field, albeit against two teams that aren't exactly world-beaters.

Lamarr Houston has led the way, particularly against Wyoming, undoubtedly his best performance at defensive tackle. On one play, he sliced through a gap on the hip of Ben Alexander and brought down the quarterback in the backfield, looking positively Roy Miller-esque. Is he as good as Roy Miller? Probably not, but that's not exactly a criticism of Houston's play. Against Wyoming, he finished with four tackles, including two behind the line of scrimmage, one sack, and two quarterback hurries. The only blemish? Two false starts.

Next to Houston in the middle, Kheeston Randle probably had his best game as a Longhorn and looks like he will be a reliable contributor this season who can make some plays. Early in the game, he fought off a block nicely to stop a running play, then almost managed to push the guard blocking him back into the quarterback on another play, forcing a poor throw. There will be some inconsistent moments and he needs to work on using his hands better when being cut block, but there is an immense amount of potential just waiting to be tapped. He's going to be a good one and it's going to happen sooner rather than later.

Ben Alexander also had maybe his best day in a Texas uniform, making five tackles, including one for a loss. As mentioned last week, he's not going to be the best pass rusher from the position, but he's not going to be moved much on running plays and he looks as quick as he ever has in his four years. Interestingly, Calvin Howell played some at defensive end in the 3-4, most likely to allow him to use his quickness on the edge, which he did on one play that he just ended up over pursuing, and to keep him out of the middle where things happen so quickly. Besides registering his first career sack, Howell also made two tackles, one for a loss. Derek Johnson and Tevin Mims both saw their first aciton at Texas, with Mims recording two tackles.

Tracking: third down. After another excellent performance on third down last week against Louisiana-Monroe, the Longhorns struggled to convert against Wyoming, finishing 5 of 17 (29%), numbers hurt significantly by two first downs called back because of holding. Was the performance an anomaly, or does it portend a return to Earth by the Texas offense after otherwordly results last season on third down? Hard to say after one game, but it is something worth monitoring moveing forward.

The problem early on was mostly that Colt McCoy was out of rhythm and having his passes float on him in the altitude and, as mentioned above, the Wyoming defense deserves a lot of credit for playing extremely tough early in the game and coming in with a solid game plan to stop the Texas offense. In particularly the Cowboys did a good job of defending the drag route across the field that Texas likes to use for Jordan Shipley and James Kirkendoll, a play that Quan Cobsy and Brandon Collins converted in key situations last season.

Several other problems stand out. In the second quarter, the Longhorns went three-and-out after Vondrell McGee only picked up one yard on 3rd and 2. The play directly preceeding the unsuccessful fake field goal as a 15-yard gain by Tre' Newton on 3rd and 16. A false start by Chris Hall in the fourth quarter turned a 3rd and 6 into 3rd and 11 and an incomplete pass from McCoy. On the last possession of the game by the Longhorns, Garrett Gilbert didn't get the play off quickly enough and turned a 3rd and 6 into 3rd and 11.

Overall, the slow start by McCoy was a big part of the problem, but penalties on third down are perhaps the major culprit. Two first downs were called back and two more third downs were made longer by penalties. If the Longhorns can avoid major penalties on third dow and do a better job of protecting McCoy, the numbers should increase again next week, but if the Longhorns struggle as much against Tech as they did against, then it might be cause for some concern. Remember also that the Longhorns struggled on third down against UTEP last year in a similar type of atmosphere and only converted 1 of 6 third downs.

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

Bill C. — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:48:53 -0000

I'm already ready for conference season, when I only have six box scores to produce instead of 12...this took forever to throw together. That said, hopefully it's worth the wait. And if you hate numbers, just skip down to the words. We start with the most surprising outcome of Week One...

BYU (14)		OU (13)
	% Close = 100%
35.3%	Field Position %	47.4%
61.8%	Leverage %	70.2%

	TOTAL
68	Plays	57
21.2	EqPts	13.8
36.8%	Success Rate	38.6%
0.31	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.24
0.680	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.629

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
2.0	EqPts	5.7
30.8%	Success Rate	46.7%
0.08	PPP	0.19
0.385	S&P	0.656
2.67	Line Yards/carry	2.67

	PASSING
19.2	EqPts	8.1
40.5%	Success Rate	29.6%
0.45	PPP	0.30
0.862	S&P	0.598
10.5%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
8.7%	PD Sack Rate	7.1%

	STANDARD DOWNS
42.9%	Success Rate	47.5%
0.31	PPP	0.25
0.738	S&P	0.725

	PASSING DOWNS
26.9%	Success Rate	17.7%
0.32	PPP	0.22
0.586	S&P	0.401

	TURNOVERS
4	Number	2
19.2	Turnover Pts	9.7
-9.5	Turnover Pts Margin	+9.5

0.471	Q1 S&P	0.960
1.188	Q2 S&P	0.552
0.373	Q3 S&P	0.619
0.745	Q4 S&P	0.360

0.536	1st Down S&P	0.707
0.536	2nd Down S&P	0.721
1.029	3rd Down S&P	0.278

-2.1	Projected Pt. Margin	+2.1
+1	Actual Pt. Margin	-1

Again, a refresher...

Field Position % = the percentage of plays you ran in the other team's field position. The higher, the better.
Leverage % = the percentage of plays you ran that were Standard Downs instead of Passing Downs. The lower the %, the more tough situations you were in.
SD Sack Rate and PD Sack Rate = Standard Downs Sack Rate and Passing Downs Sack Rate. PD Sack Rate will usually be higher. I average the two together for an "Adjusted Sack Rate" figure you see from time to time.
Projected Pt. Margin = Adding together EqPts and Turnover Pts Margin, you can get an idea for how the game should have unfolded. For instance, in this game Mizzou outgained Illinois by 12.3 EqPts and held an 8.7-point Turnover Points Margin, leading to a projected +21.0 pt. margin.

Thoughts and more games after the jump.

OU's defensive line put up very strong stats, but their secondary had some pretty untimely letdowns. Can't really complain about a defense that only gave up 14 points to BYU, however...this one's on the offense.
OU faced fewer Passing Downs (despite the deluge of offensive line penalties), ran more plays in opposing field position, and benefitted by 10 points on turnovers...but BYU still outgained and outplayed them because OU was consistently shooting itself in the foot with a deluge of offensive line penalties (Cory Brandon alone had, I believe, SIX penalties...SIX).
The BYU front seven showed more than I thought they would--they deserve a TON of credit for, if nothing else, holding the Sam Bradford-led OU offense to just 10 points in the first half. They clamped down on the Landry Jones-led offense in the second, but that was less impressive to me. Between the OL struggles that we knew could be a factor (then again, I didn't think they'd be this much of a factor) and the lack of any sort of standout play from the receivers, Bradford was having to do more than he should have, and when he got hurt, OU had no leadership whatsoever on the field. They abandoned the run, which hadn't been amazingly impressive, but still would have been a nice complement for a young QB, and nobody else stepped up.
My boy Trent Ratterree had a catch! He almost had a huge catch on the third down play at the end, but for whatever reason, he and Brandon Caleb were way too close together on a couple of patterns late, and Caleb dove in front of Ratterree like he was taking a bullet for him...and the ball ended up going by both of them.
Bradford or no, OU still really, really should have won this game.

Georgia (14)		OSU (24)
	% Close = 100%
20.0%	Field Position %	39.4%
70.0%	Leverage %	65.2%

	TOTAL
60	Plays	66
11.8	EqPts	19.3
36.7%	Success Rate	37.9%
0.20	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.29
0.563	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.671

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
5.2	EqPts	8.7
42.9%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.18	PPP	0.20
0.613	S&P	0.652
3.29	Line Yards/carry	3.23

	PASSING
6.6	EqPts	10.6
31.3%	Success Rate	22.7%
0.21	PPP	0.48
0.519	S&P	0.709
5.6%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
7.1%	PD Sack Rate	0.0%

	STANDARD DOWNS
45.2%	Success Rate	48.8%
0.24	PPP	0.35
0.691	S&P	0.835

	PASSING DOWNS
16.7%	Success Rate	17.4%
0.10	PPP	0.19
0.265	S&P	0.365

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	0
14.7	Turnover Pts	0.0
-14.7	Turnover Pts Margin	+14.7

0.717	Q1 S&P	0.420
0.286	Q2 S&P	0.294
0.553	Q3 S&P	0.828
0.541	Q4 S&P	0.607

0.580	1st Down S&P	0.412
0.500	2nd Down S&P	0.855
0.689	3rd Down S&P	0.798

-22.2	Projected Pt. Margin	+22.2
-10	Actual Pt. Margin	+10

Like Mizzou-Illinois, we'll see what this game truly means later on, when we find out how good Georgia's offense really is. As it stands, Oklahoma State dominated this game statistically and, considering they also won the battle in the return game, were pretty unlucky to not win this one by three touchdowns.
OSU's offense did next to nothing until the second half, while Georgia completely fizzled after the first quarter. Both teams were pretty much hapless on Passing Downs, but Georgia also wasn't very good on Standard Downs. Again, we'll see how much of this was due to OSU's defense or Georgia's offense (or the flu that Joe Cox had last week) down the line, but perceptions are everything, and OSU's defense earned quite a bit of respect Saturday. We knew that new defensive coordinator Bill Young is really good at his job, but you just never know how long it will take a defense to click with a new D.C. That said, if OSU shuts down Houston this coming week, look out...Houston can score on anybody, and if OSU slows them down a lot, they are a legitimate Big 12 (and therefore national title) contender.
Both teams were terrible on first downs. Not sure what to make of that.
The OSU offensive line certainly lived up to its billing, not allowing a sack while posting a pretty good line yardage figure against a solid Georgia defensive line. Zac Robinson certainly didn't look amazing, but he lost a lot of practice time due to his bad hammy in the last month, and if the O-line continues to perform well, he'll get things together pretty quickly.

Baylor (24)		Wake (21)
	% Close = 92.1%
52.5%	Field Position %	41.5%
73.8%	Leverage %	66.2%

	TOTAL
61	Plays	65
25.1	EqPts	17.7
49.2%	Success Rate	36.9%
0.41	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.903	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.642

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	55
same	EqPts	11.9
same	Success Rate	34.6%
same	PPP	0.22
same	S&P	0.561

	RUSHING
12.9	EqPts	8.7
60.6%	Success Rate	44.8%
0.39	PPP	0.25
0.996	S&P	0.698
4.10	Line Yards/carry	3.44

	PASSING
12.2	EqPts	9.0
35.7%	Success Rate	23.1%
0.44	PPP	0.18
0.794	S&P	0.409
6.3%	SD Sack Rate	6.3%
16.7%	PD Sack Rate	11.1%

	STANDARD DOWNS
57.8%	Success Rate	46.5%
0.44	PPP	0.33
1.022	S&P	0.792

	PASSING DOWNS
25.0%	Success Rate	18.2%
0.32	PPP	0.17
0.571	S&P	0.348

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	4
5.22	Turnover Pts	17.13
+11.91	Turnover Pts Margin	-11.91

1.115	Q1 S&P	0.601
0.373	Q2 S&P	0.658
1.752	Q3 S&P	0.687
0.605	Q4 S&P	0.570

1.077	1st Down S&P	0.521
0.761	2nd Down S&P	0.644
0.736	3rd Down S&P	0.630

+19.3	Projected Pt. Margin	-19.3
+3	Actual Pt. Margin	-3

What a great win for Baylor. Not only does bowl eligibility now squarely fit into the equation for 2009, but so does pure respectability. Never mind how bad the ACC looked in week one--this was still huge for them. And since Rock M Nation basically serves as a blog for not only Mizzou but also anything Robert Griffin-related, I wanted to mention that.
This was another game where the Big 12 team actually should have won by a lot more than it did, and in the end I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Wake Forest's biggest strength is simply hanging around and winning the battle of intangibles, but Baylor really should have won by more. Oh well. A win is a win is a win.
I cannot stress this enough: play-calling will make or break Baylor this season. I realize you could say that for anybody, but for Baylor in particular, success on first downs will dictate whether Baylor will be bowling this year. The play-calling worked for the most part, but while we all love Hot Tub Griffin III to death, his is not an offense that will thrive facing passing downs. That does not suit his strengths. But if Baylor is getting yards on first down and therefore opening up a ton of options on second and third down, they will be pretty unstoppable against just about anybody. This being the case, don't be surprised if they get completely shut down a couple of games while looking completely unstoppable on others.
That said, the Baylor defense looked pretty consistently great against an admittedly conservative-by-nature Wake Forest offense. Wake thrives by not making mistakes, and Baylor forced quite a few (see: four turnovers), and their pass defense was especially outstanding.

CSU (23)		Colorado (17)
	% Close = 96.6%
47.5%	Field Position %	40.0%
71.2%	Leverage %	65.0%

	TOTAL
59	Plays	60
25.2	EqPts	15.9
33.9%	Success Rate	36.7%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.767	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.632

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	56
same	EqPts	10.5
same	Success Rate	33.9%
same	PPP	0.19
same	S&P	0.527

	RUSHING
11.1	EqPts	5.8
30.0%	Success Rate	33.3%
0.28	PPP	0.22
0.578	S&P	0.549
2.62	Line Yards/carry	2.82

	PASSING
14.1	EqPts	10.2
42.1%	Success Rate	34.2%
0.74	PPP	0.18
1.164	S&P	0.519
0.0%	SD Sack Rate	3.9%
22.2%	PD Sack Rate	16.7%

	STANDARD DOWNS
35.7%	Success Rate	48.7%
0.42	PPP	0.36
0.775	S&P	0.852

	PASSING DOWNS
29.4%	Success Rate	14.3%
0.45	PPP	0.08
0.747	S&P	0.224

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
7.58	Turnover Pts	8.74
+1.16	Turnover Pts Margin	-1.16

1.116	Q1 S&P	0.415
0.650	Q2 S&P	0.305
0.315	Q3 S&P	0.997
0.922	Q4 S&P	0.688

0.877	1st Down S&P	0.854
0.658	2nd Down S&P	0.516
0.701	3rd Down S&P	0.329

+10.5	Projected Pt. Margin	-10.5
+6	Actual Pt. Margin	-6

You know, I've spent half my offseason saying Colorado was probably overrated, and I still didn't think they'd lose to Colorado State. But there they were, literally getting doubled-up in terms of Passing S&P, allowing the Rams' new starting quarterback to light them ablaze, while their own embattled QB, Cody Hawkins, stunk on ice yet again. A 0.519 Passing S&P? Really? 0.224 on Passing Downs? Are you kidding me? There's bad, there's terrible, and there's Cody Hawkins.
At halftime, Colorado State's S&P was 0.883. Colorado's? 0.360.
I've started looking at Passing Downs as almost the Quarterback down. First down is the Playcalling down, second down is the "reacting to first down" down, and third down is the "QB needs to make a play" down. I realize that logic has plenty of holes in it, but it works for me. And it works here, as CU and their supposedly offensive-minded coach put up a respectable 0.854 S&P on first downs. Third downs? 0.329.
And did I mention that Darrell Scott barely played?
And that I just don't think that ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins is a very good head coach?
Seriously, I think ~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen just asked for a redshirt so he'd have three years remaining with the next head coach.
The only encouraging aspect I can find here for Colorado is that their run defense was pretty solid. We'll see if that's a strength, or if CSU just doesn't rush the ball very well.

Now we get to the games that didn't tell us nearly as much...the "cupcakes and 1-AA" games. NU could have shown us something by not dominating Florida Atlantic, but they took care of business. Meanwhile, K-State likely showed us something, but in a different way.

FAU (3)		NU (49)
	% Close = 48.1%
35.5%	Field Position %	45.6%
71.1%	Leverage %	75.4%

	TOTAL
76	Plays	57
15.2	EqPts	38.5
39.5%	Success Rate	50.9%
0.20	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.67
0.594	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.184

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
34	Plays	30
8.0	EqPts	16.7
38.2%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.23	PPP	0.56
0.617	S&P	0.956

	RUSHING
4.7	EqPts	23.3
35.7%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.14	PPP	0.33
0.492	S&P	0.732
3.20	Line Yards/carry	3.27

	PASSING
10.5	EqPts	15.2
40.0%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.30	PPP	0.78
0.704	S&P	1.181
0.0%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
0.0%	PD Sack Rate	0.0%

	STANDARD DOWNS
48.2%	Success Rate	53.5%
0.25	PPP	0.73
0.727	S&P	1.266

	PASSING DOWNS
25.0%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.12	PPP	0.57
0.368	S&P	1.019

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
12.3	Turnover Pts	3.5
-8.5	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.5

0.466	Q1 S&P	0.590
0.808	Q2 S&P	1.201
0.517	Q3 S&P	1.795
0.626	Q4 S&P	0.988

0.815	1st Down S&P	1.428
0.376	2nd Down S&P	0.798
0.533	3rd Down S&P	0.852

-31.7	Projected Pt. Margin	+31.7
-46	Actual Pt. Margin	+46

NU dominated this one through field position and rushing. Actually, they won this one just by being a lot better than the Fightin' Schnellenburgers. As you would expect when your head coach is a former defensive coordinator, the Huskers pounced on FAU's offense on passing downs and were just faster and more athletic than the Owls on offense.
As I said, there would be more to say here if NU actually struggled, but after a slow offensive start in Q1, they rolled. They circled the wagons in the third quarter on the way to an easy win.

UNM (6)		ATM (41)
	% Close = 52.6%
38.1%	Field Position %	49.4%
66.7%	Leverage %	69.7%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	89
10.3	EqPts	38.9
33.3%	Success Rate	50.6%
0.16	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.44
0.497	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.943

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
39	Plays	41
5.3	EqPts	17.1
30.8%	Success Rate	41.5%
0.14	PPP	0.42
0.444	S&P	0.831

	RUSHING
1.9	EqPts	17.0
10.0%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.05	PPP	0.55
0.154	S&P	0.990
1.55	Line Yards/carry	3.70

	PASSING
8.4	EqPts	22.0
37.9%	Success Rate	39.1%
0.16	PPP	0.31
0.544	S&P	0.706
4.0%	SD Sack Rate	3.9%
20.0%	PD Sack Rate	5.3%

	STANDARD DOWNS
40.5%	Success Rate	58.1%
0.17	PPP	0.40
0.577	S&P	0.985

	PASSING DOWNS
19.1%	Success Rate	33.3%
0.14	PPP	0.51
0.335	S&P	0.848

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	0
10.0	Turnover Pts	0.0
-10.0	Turnover Pts Margin	+10.0

0.235	Q1 S&P	0.761
0.589	Q2 S&P	0.885
0.671	Q3 S&P	1.080
0.507	Q4 S&P	0.978

0.494	1st Down S&P	0.707
0.549	2nd Down S&P	1.145
0.419	3rd Down S&P	1.192

-38.6	Projected Pt. Margin	+38.6
-35	Actual Pt. Margin	+35

This is another "We'll see" game. This is either a sign that ATM could put together a nice run for a bowl bid in Mike Sherman's second year...or a sign that New Mexico might in fact be gawd-awful. Or, technically, both.
All-world freshman Christine Michael (now THERE's a girl's name for you, Orson...) did well in his debut, leading ATM to a very nice Rushing S&P, which anchored their overall performance. Honestly, the passing game didn't click along quite at the level that I expected, but when you're running the ball well and embarrassing your opponent on the defensive end, your passing game gets some leeway.
And embarrass the Lobos, ATM did.

ULM (20)		Texas (59)
	% Close = 45.3%
48.5%	Field Position %	52.4%
68.2%	Leverage %	77.4%

	TOTAL
66	Plays	84
19.7	EqPts	40.8
36.4%	Success Rate	53.6%
0.30	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.49
0.662	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.022

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
29	Plays	39
10.1	EqPts	20.1
37.9%	Success Rate	53.9%
0.35	PPP	0.52
0.726	S&P	1.054

	RUSHING
7.3	EqPts	19.1
38.9%	Success Rate	57.9%
0.17	PPP	0.42
0.555	S&P	1.002
1.56	Line Yards/carry	2.19

	PASSING
12.3	EqPts	21.7
36.4%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.64	PPP	0.60
1.008	S&P	1.103
0.0%	SD Sack Rate	4.4%
0.0%	PD Sack Rate	7.1%

	STANDARD DOWNS
35.6%	Success Rate	53.9%
0.32	PPP	0.50
0.677	S&P	1.035

	PASSING DOWNS
38.1%	Success Rate	53.9%
0.25	PPP	0.45
0.630	S&P	0.977

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	3
16.5	Turnover Pts	14.2
-2.3	Turnover Pts Margin	+2.3

0.552	Q1 S&P	0.988
0.857	Q2 S&P	1.001
0.334	Q3 S&P	1.052
0.928	Q4 S&P	1.063

0.752	1st Down S&P	1.036
0.627	2nd Down S&P	0.911
0.548	3rd Down S&P	1.190

-23.4	Projected Pt. Margin	+23.4
-39	Actual Pt. Margin	+39

it's always a big "eff you" to the underdog when the highly-ranked, favored home team not only beats you on offense and defense, but special teams as well. With a surprising 75-yard touchdown pass, UL-Monroe had cut the Texas lead to 21-10 when freshman speed demon D.J. Monroe returned the ensuing kickoff 89 yards for a touchdown. It's just inconsiderate to dash the underdog's hopes that quickly.
It's probably not smart to read too much into a game in which Texas led by 28 at halftime, but thanks in part to the aforementioned 75-yard touchdown, ULM managed to post pretty decent passing stats. Of course, take that play away and ULM's QB goes 13-for-29 for 122 yards. Not as good. So we'll chalk this one up to small sample sizes.
Even with Brandon Collins facing eligibility issues, Colt McCoy had no trouble finding receivers, completing 72% of his passes and two touchdowns. Nineteenth-year senior Jordan Shipley was the primary target, nabbing eight for a whopping 180 yards.
Reason for slight concern: the offensive line gave up a couple of sacks and only managed 2.19 line yards per carry...against UL-Monroe. Those numbers MUST improve, or Texas will be vulnerable to a slip-up along the way.

UMass (17)		KSU (21)
	% Close = 75.2%
23.7%	Field Position %	40.5%
57.6%	Leverage %	63.5%

	TOTAL
59	Plays	74
10.5	EqPts	24.0
32.2%	Success Rate	36.5%
0.18	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.32
0.500	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.690

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
41	Plays	59
6.0	EqPts	22.8
29.3%	Success Rate	40.7%
0.15	PPP	0.39
0.439	S&P	0.793

	RUSHING
4.6	EqPts	12.8
35.7%	Success Rate	42.1%
0.15	PPP	0.31
0.308	S&P	0.728
3.46	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
6.0	EqPts	11.3
25.9%	Success Rate	38.1%
0.14	PPP	0.53
0.404	S&P	0.911
6.3%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
0.0%	PD Sack Rate	7.1%

	STANDARD DOWNS
35.3%	Success Rate	40.4%
0.23	PPP	0.36
0.578	S&P	0.760

	PASSING DOWNS
28.0%	Success Rate	29.6%
0.11	PPP	0.27
0.395	S&P	0.567

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	3
7.2	Turnover Pts	16.8
+9.6	Turnover Pts Margin	-9.6

0.430	Q1 S&P	0.662
0.519	Q2 S&P	1.280
0.640	Q3 S&P	0.272
0.229	Q4 S&P	0.480

0.474	1st Down S&P	0.683
0.626	2nd Down S&P	0.499
0.369	3rd Down S&P	0.950

-3.9	Projected Pt. Margin	+3.9
-4	Actual Pt. Margin	+4

Thanks to turnovers and special teams, K-State almost managed to give away a game against UMass. Ouch. That's really all there is to it. The Minutemen offense did next to nothing, but the K-State offense was only okay, and thanks to a blocked punt and two fumbles lost, UMass cut the lead to four with 14:01 left but couldn't get any closer. As you see, the KSU defense clamped down with the game on the line.
Big reason for concern: aside from a burst in the second quarter, KSU was almost nonexistent on offense. Sure, Daniel Thomas and Keithen Valentine combined for 193 yards on 34 carries, but when KSU needed to move the ball, they very much could not.
Another reason for concern: UMass averaged 3.46 line yards per carry and allowed only one sack. Their starting RB had 107 yards on 19 carries.

No. Col. (3)		KU (49)
	% Close = 46.4%
30.4%	Field Position %	66.7%
53.6%	Leverage %	78.3%

	TOTAL
56	Plays	69
10.4	EqPts	41.9
32.1%	Success Rate	59.4%
0.19	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.61
0.507	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.201

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
20	Plays	38
3.9	EqPts	22.6
30.0%	Success Rate	57.9%
0.20	PPP	0.60
0.496	S&P	1.174

	RUSHING
3.6	EqPts	27.0
30.0%	Success Rate	60.9%
0.10	PPP	0.52
0.402	S&P	1.132
1.59	Line Yards/carry	4.52

	PASSING
6.8	EqPts	14.9
30.0%	Success Rate	53.3%
0.29	PPP	0.71
0.591	S&P	1.239
5.9%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
11.8%	PD Sack Rate	0.0%

	STANDARD DOWNS
36.7%	Success Rate	61.1%
0.20	PPP	0.61
0.562	S&P	1.216

	PASSING DOWNS
26.9%	Success Rate	53.3%
0.17	PPP	0.61
0.443	S&P	1.147

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	0
8.7	Turnover Pts	0.0
-8.7	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.7

0.656	Q1 S&P	1.041
0.140	Q2 S&P	1.234
0.649	Q3 S&P	0.898
0.474	Q4 S&P	1.606

0.408	1st Down S&P	0.920
0.564	2nd Down S&P	1.578
0.592	3rd Down S&P	1.079

-40.2	Projected Pt. Margin	+40.2
-46	Actual Pt. Margin	+46

Yawn.
This was a pretty good "We don't need you as much as you think" message to Dez Briscoe, I would say. Even without Briscoe, KU managed an easy 1.239 Passing S&P and 1.147 Passing Downs S&P. Yes, it was against Directional Mountain State University, but still.

NDSU (17)		Iowa St. (34)
	% Close = 86.0%
33.9%	Field Position %	42.2%
73.9%	Leverage %	71.8%

	TOTAL
65	Plays	71
21.2	EqPts	28.6
36.9%	Success Rate	45.1%
0.33	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.40
0.696	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.854

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
55	Plays	62
20.6	EqPts	26.6
38.2%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.37	PPP	0.43
0.757	S&P	0.881

	RUSHING
12.5	EqPts	13.7
41.9%	Success Rate	43.8%
0.38	PPP	0.37
0.798	S&P	0.812
3.16	Line Yards/carry	3.71

	PASSING
8.7	EqPts	15.0
33.3%	Success Rate	46.7%
0.37	PPP	0.49
0.703	S&P	0.954
5.0%	SD Sack Rate	4.8%
27.3%	PD Sack Rate	0.0%

	STANDARD DOWNS
37.5%	Success Rate	49.0%
0.31	PPP	0.45
0.685	S&P	0.939

	PASSING DOWNS
35.3%	Success Rate	35.0%
0.37	PPP	0.29
0.728	S&P	0.637

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
10.4	Turnover Pts	8.8
-1.6	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.6

0.778	Q1 S&P	0.733
0.894	Q2 S&P	0.757
0.663	Q3 S&P	0.975
0.466	Q4 S&P	1.062

0.762	1st Down S&P	1.034
0.670	2nd Down S&P	0.615
0.606	3rd Down S&P	0.810

-9.0	Projected Pt. Margin	+9.0
-17	Actual Pt. Margin	+17

Positive: The ISU offensive line looked good, averaging 3.71 line yards per carry and allowing just one sack.
Positive: A 0.954 Passing S&P is nothing to scoff at.
Positive: When the game got a little too close for comfort, ISU stepped it up and won the game.
Negative: North Dakota State's first-half S&P was better than ISU's.
Negative: The projected point margin was a lot closer than the actual margin, suggesting this game was a lot closer than the final score indicated.
Negative: NDSU averaged over three line yards per carry.
Negative: NDSU outperformed ISU on passing downs.
Negative: Now's a good time to remind you that North Dakota State is an FCS team.

UND (13)		Tech (38)
	% Close = 81.3%
37.5%	Field Position %	68.7%
64.3%	Leverage %	67.2%

	TOTAL
56	Plays	67
10.7	EqPts	33.6
32.1%	Success Rate	44.8%
0.19	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.50
0.512	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.949

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
37	Plays	63
5.2	EqPts	29.1
21.6%	Success Rate	42.9%
0.14	PPP	0.46
0.356	S&P	0.890

	RUSHING
5.1	EqPts	6.4
12.5%	Success Rate	29.4%
0.08	PPP	0.33
0.207	S&P	0.625
2.15	Line Yards/carry	1.70

	PASSING
5.6	EqPts	27.2
28.6%	Success Rate	47.8%
0.18	PPP	0.51
0.470	S&P	0.988
7.7%	SD Sack Rate	3.3%
5.9%	PD Sack Rate	0.0%

	STANDARD DOWNS
33.3%	Success Rate	46.7%
0.18	PPP	0.41
0.508	S&P	0.872

	PASSING DOWNS
30.0%	Success Rate	40.9%
0.22	PPP	0.70
0.519	S&P	1.108

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	3
5.3	Turnover Pts	13.8
+8.5	Turnover Pts Margin	-8.5

0.438	Q1 S&P	1.140
0.366	Q2 S&P	0.908
0.531	Q3 S&P	0.710
0.663	Q4 S&P	1.030

0.520	1st Down S&P	0.731
0.457	2nd Down S&P	0.978
0.522	3rd Down S&P	1.334

-14.4	Projected Pt. Margin	+14.4
-25	Actual Pt. Margin	+25

Taylor Potts threw THREE second-quarter interceptions, and Tech's margin of victory was higher than the projected point margin, meaning this too was a closer game than the final score indicated.
Luckily for Tech, the defense wasn't messing around, and UND never actually had a chance to threaten because of it.
Tech fell into WAY too many passing downs for this caliber of opponent. Potts' three interceptions came on 3rd-and-15, 2nd-and-13, and 3rd-and-15. Granted, he should really learn what passes he should and shouldn't make, but...a 29.4% rushing success rate? Against North Dakota? That MUST improve, and immediately. Tech is obviously not tremendously likely to beat Texas or OSU on the road, and they'll certainly be underdogs against OU at home, but with poor line play and no threat of a run, suddenly trips to Houston and Nebraska become dicey (especially against NU's defensive line), as do home games against Kansas and Baylor. You have to figure Tech will go 8-4 like they almost always seem to do, but if they can't even pretend to be capable of running the ball, then they're in trouble.
Of course, they didn't have Baron Batch, so we'll see what happens when...oh wait, they did have Baron Batch? Nine rushes for 30 yards? Huh.
A quick look at the per-down S&P figures tells the story. Tech was still quite good on 2nd and 3rd downs, but they got nowhere on first downs, and something has to improve there. They shouldn't struggle much with Rice, but the back-to-back trips to Austin and Houston could be dicey if they don't get it together on the handoffs.

Morning Coffee Apparently Forgot the Title

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Expect to see more of this as the season progresses -- D.J. Monroe with the football in his hands. (AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Monroe provides spark for offense. It didn't take long for D.J. Monroe to make an impact on the Longhorn football team. A little less than ten seconds, to be exact. That's roughly the amount of time it took the former high school track star to find the end zone after receiving monster blocks from Tre' Newton and Malcolm Wiliams on his first kick off return in college. His first touch in college, even. The coaches want to limit Shipley's work in the kicking game and Monroe's first effort cemented, at the very least, a few more chances for the dynamic speedster to return kicks.

Monroe was equally impressive running the football. His second touch only minutes of game time later resulted in a nine-yard run and guaranteed that the Texas coaching staff would receive approximately one million questions how they plan to use Monroe going forward. The excitement about Monroe running the football stems not only from his insane speed (best 100m time: 10.08), but also from his incredibly quick feet. After two years of complaining about Texas running backs not fitting into the zone-blocking scheme, Monroe's ability to plant and cut and take the corner against virtually any defender screams, "Savior!"

In only 12 plays on the field, Monroe had nine carries for 64 yards, an average of 7.1 yards per carry. At roughly 170 pounds, Monroe also showed a little bit of toughness, taking on several defenders on one run instead of meekly heading out of bounds. The coaches are still concerned about his ability in pass protection and that is certainly warranted, but Greg Davis said after the game that they would continue to expand the number of plays in Monroe's package as he becomes more acclimated to the running game. More, please.

So much for the redshirt. Marquise Goodwin wasn't supposed to see the field for the Longhorns this season. After all, the coaches didn't even know how committed he would be to football in college. It's not that they thought he wasn't a football player or didn't like the game, it's just that he has a shot at the 2012 Olympic team as a world-class athlete in the triple jump and long jump. He didn't participate in spring practice or in summer workouts, showing up to fall practice well behind every other receiver on the team, even fellow freshman Greg Timmons.

Well, it didn't take long for Goodwin to lose his redshirt and make a difference on the field for the Longhorns. Entering the game as part of the second-team unit with Garrett Gilbert, Goodwin quickly established himself as Gilbert's favorite target, catching three passes for 39 yards on the drive, including a 29-yard screen pass that he almost broke down the sideline for a touchdown, and, judging by his expression of frustration afterwards, felt like he should have.

Perhaps it's no surprise that Goodwin played in the first game, considering how much receivers coach Bobby Kennedy raved about him during an interview last week:

Marquise is a doing good job. Obviously, he's real fast, and he catches the ball very naturally. That's what is exciting for me because you do see him snatch the ball. The speed coupled with pretty good hands, he's by no means a finished product, but I see good improvement out of him. He's been a pleasant surprise. He was a good high school player, obviously an outstanding track athlete, a world-class track athlete. I see him getting better every day.

If Brandon Collins loses his appeal to regain his eligibility this fall, Goodwin could be one of the players who steps up and earns a larger than expected role on the football team. His debut on Saturday certainly looked like a preview of a lot of good things to come.

Tracking: 'Horns continue third-down success. Part of the reason the Longhorn offense was so successful last season was the uncanny ability to convert not only third-down situations, but also third-and-long situations. Overall, Texas converted 55% of all third downs and 48% of third-and-longs, defined as needing seven or more yards. Championship level, according to Greg Davis ($), is converting 33% of third-and-longs, leading Davis to call the performance by Colt McCoy and company in those situations last year "off the chart."

It's difficult to say whether Texas can continue to convert at that insanely high rate throughout the 2009 season, but the early returns look promising. Against Louisiana-Monroe, the Longhorns went 9 of 14 on third downs, good for a conversion rate of 64%, nearly ten percent better than last year's strong numbers. On Saturday, McCoy and the first team converted 7 of 12, including 2 of 4 on third-and-long, once completing a pass to James Kirkendoll and once completing a pass to John Chiles to set up Jordan Shipley's long touchdown catch the following play.

One of the major questions surrounding Texas this season is whether or not McCoy can continue to convert third downs at such a high rate without Quan Cosby, who was second on the team in converting 14 third downs (seven third-and-long) on 17 passes thrown in his direction. Jordan Shipley lead the team in that category, catching 19 passes on third down (all for first downs) on 24 passes thrown to him. The bad news is that Brandon Collins became an increasingly reliable option for McCoy as the season wore on, including three in the last two games.

Saturday night indicated that McCoy has developed a better connection with James Kirkendoll, who caught both of his passes on third down and moved the chains both times. John Chiles is another candidate to step up and use his size and strength to muscle defenders after catching one third-down pass to move the chains. But will a running back step up to become a reliable target on third down? Chris Ogbonnaya converted six third downs last season and Vondrell McGeeisn't known as being even close to Ogbonnaya as a receiver out of the backfield.

The verdict: the Longhorns should continue to convert third downs at a high rate this season with the return of Shipley and a greater level of comfort between McCoy and Kirkendoll and McCoy and Chiles. However, one major area of concern from the first game is that two of the three turnovers came on third down. Were the Longhorns pressing?

Tracking: Defensive tackles. Lamarr Houston had an excellent game as a disruptive force, posting four tackles, with one made behind the line of scrimmage. On the first touchdown run by Cody Johnson, Houston made a big-league block on a poor ULM player to spring Johnson into the end zone. Good start to the season for the senior who should be much more active this season as long as he stays healthy, something he wasn't able to do last season.

The rest of the defensive tackles were a little bit more of a mixed bag. Kheeston Randall made two tackles, but struggled once again at times with losing his leverage and also had a roughing the passer penalty. There are going to be some growing pains early in the season, but improved performances from him are going to be necessary for the Longhorns to make it to Pasadena.

Ben Alexander looked exactly like the player everyone thinks he is -- a run stuffer and little more. Will Muschamp isn't going to ask him to do much more than hold the point of attack and take up blockers to keep the linebackers free to make plays. So far so good.

Calvin Howell. Well, he's certainly aggressive. The true freshman committed two penalties in limited action, hitting the quarterback late once and grabbing a facemask on the other. He made one tackle but also struggled with his leverage times. Like Randall, improvement from Howell will help dictate how well the interior of the defense plays this season and whether or not the Longhorns can go undefeated.

Buckner elevates game. It's a good thing the Longhorn roster is practically overflowing with receivers. After DJ Grant went down early in fall practice, the team had to find a replacement at the flex tight end position. Even with the weight loss by Greg Smith, it's been clear for some time that Texas won't have traditional options at the position this season.

Enter Dan Buckner. Buried at the wide receiver position ever since he lost Colt McCoy's trust early last season by not fighting off the line of scrimmage, a play that resulted in McCoy's first interception of the season against UTEP, Buckner's switch to the flex tight end position has reinvigorated his young career at UT. The returns against Louisiana-Monroe were almost immediate -- Buckner caught McCoy's second pass attempt of the season and was targeted on two of McCoy's first five attempts. His five catches for 62 yards (including a 30-yard catch) were good enough to finish second on the team in receptions on the day.

Of course, playing in the flex position requires more than just earning the quarterback's trust and catching passes. To truly benefit the offense, Buckner needs to block well at the position as well, part of the reason Shipley likely won't see much time there this season. In his first live action there, Buckner blocked well and showed that he will not be a liability blocking there, no real surprise considering his size and improved strength, but heartening given that he struggled with physical cornerbacks last season and will be blocking larger players at the position this season.

All things considered, Dan Buckner's debut at the flex tight end position was an unmitigated success and means that the Longhorns can continue to use Greg Smith primarily in short-yardage and goalline situations this seasons -- the position at whih he can most positively impact the team. Maybe the tight end position isn't such a concern after all.

I Know He's The Roommate, But Isn't He Also The Flanker?

Peter Bean — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 06:04:15 -0000

I'm trying to work through a longer piece on the depth chart and for the life of me can't figure out what in the hell is going on at wide receiver. Check out the depth chart published on MB-TF.com. Notice anything strange?

According to the 2009 depth chart: Malcolm Williams, last year's starting split end, is now co-starting with John Chiles at Sub-B wideout, the position formerly occupied by Quan Cosby, while Jordan Shipley, last year's starting flanker, is this year's starting split end (backed up by Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner), while James Kirkendoll and Brandon Collins move to co-start at flanker.

Confused yet? Yeah, me too. Best I can figure, either the intern tasked with publishing the depth chart slotted the receivers in the wrong positions on the published depth chart, or Greg Davis and Bobby Kennedy have decided Jordan Shipley is Texas' top downfield option at the split end position. To the extent a lot of these guys are interchangeable (and they are), it doesn't actually matter too much. That said, if the depth chart is correct, there's something to discuss here. Among the questions it would raise:

Has Malcolm Williams been struggling (or Jordan Shipley thriving) so much at split end to have convinced Davis the switch was necessary? Or might it be that Texas wants to get Ship-Williams-Kirk out there together, and Shipley's proving the better split end right now?
John Chiles in the Quan Cosby role makes sense to me, but Malcolm Williams? Can this be right? And if it is, would Williams succeed in that role? Would it be a misappropriation of resources?
Not that there's too much difference between what Texas does with the Sub-B and Flanker, and I'm certain these wideouts crosstrain and all, but... huh? We're moving Shipley and Kirkendoll-Collins, both of whom took the majority of their 2008 snaps from the Sub-B spot?

Again, if the depth chart is right and all this shuffling is correct, it's not exactly a cause for great concern. Just... confusing.

Anyone?

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:47:15 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

(AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Is this year Pasadena or bust --unless you are College Football News who predicts three loses-- for the Texas Longhorns, because with some erie similarities from the 2005 season to the 2009 season. The Horns are coming a good season, but there was controverisy over the Big XII tie breaker rules the league has that gave Oklahoma the nod over Texas even though the Longhorns won the head to head matchup. During the offseason no changes were made to that rule.

The offense which was amazing last year which was 5th nationally, but was third in the Big XII by averaging just over 42.2 points per game which was .2 more then Missouri. The offense returns eight starters with big losses come from the departures in RB Chris Ogbonnava, WR Quan Cosby,RG Cedric Dockery so the offense should stil be fine. WR Cosby was the team leader with 92 receptions and since Texas just reloads however those receptions will not be that easy to replace.

When looking for replacements to take over Cosby's spot on the field looks to be speedster James Kirkendoll, but also look out for junior Brandon Collins who has been praised by QB Colt McCoy. Both of these receivers are top notch recruits and Collins was a four star from the 2006 class while Kirkendoll was a four star from the 2007 class.

The tight end might be scrapped entirely after injuries have decimated the top few candidates to start, and it is anyones guess if or who Mack Brown will stick at that spot.

Obviously the quarterback situation is great for Texas as they have Heisman Trophy runner-up in Colt McCoy. McCoy did it all for Texas which included a mind boggling 76.7 percent completion percantage as well as averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. Not exactly sure who McCoy can improve off those numbers, or even staying in the 70 percentage.

McCoy is poised to challenge for the Heisman and is most likely to win it in 2009. The reasoning because the Heisman voters are most likely not to vote for a back-to-back winner --even though Tim Tebow did receive the most first place votes last year-- which almost certainly eliminates Bradford; not because of skill but because of voters tendancy. With all the hype surrounding "The Choosen One" and the Gators it will be hard to provide a good enough season where anything less then a BCS title is considered a failure.

When I mean most likely to win it does not constitute as a guarantee, but if Texas wins the Big XII--which means the 'Horns will be in Pasadena for the BCS title game-- and is anywhere close to his 2008 numbers he will be striking the pose in New York.

The only downside to McCoy and the Texas offense is the running game, because Texas did not have a premire back in 2008 and the team was lead in rushing by Colt McCoy with 561 yards and carries with 136 attempts. Getting running yards was not the problem, but Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis strayed from the run and leaned much more on Colt McMoy and the pasing game. The 2009 Longhorns must find a balance and incorrporate the run more, so that the team can be more balanced which could provide for big plays in the passing game.

The offensive line is very experienced with 91 career starts but the line was a much better passing line then a run block offensive line. Which is another reason why the team trended toward more passing plays then running plays. Also, consider that Texas nearly exclusively is in the shot gun formation which can hinder running plays by taking too long to get to the line of scrimmage. The running backs themselves will be used in a roation or situational role with Vondrell McGee the likely starter, then there is Fozzy Whittaker who is the most versitale of the backs, and then Cody Johnson who wll be the short yardage specialist.

Defensively well it is the Big XII which is why conferene stats are more of a tool to use when measuring success then national defensive rankings. The rush defense was amazing which was first in the Big XII by giving up only 83.54 yards per game, and even more impressive was the 3.05 allowed per rush; oh also the 'Horns just happened to be third nationally as well in total rushing yards allowed. There is concern because they lost three key defensive line man to the NFL In DT Roy MIller, DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton, so the rush defense could take a hit.

The pass defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed, which normally would be sound for alarm, however defensive passing yards are misleading when it comes to good teams. Any time Texas was up by 8 or more points the Longhorns were ninth in the Big XII in passing yards.

The Horns have playmakers in the secondaery with Earl Thomas, Aaron Williams, and Chykie Brown then there are a few more who could start for nearly any team in the country, so look for them to make big plays on defense.

The season really comes down to two games that could be a loss and then a third that has the potential to be a loss, and all three are in a row. There is always the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma then the potential trap game at Missouri, and then legitimate threat Oklahoma State which is also on the road.

SB Nation - Brandon Collins

A Time to Celebrate, A Time to Reflect

Crossfire Q&A: Texas

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Talkin' Texas: 2009 Longhorns Football at the Quarter Pole

Off-Week Injury Report

Morning Coffee

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

BYU(14)

OU(13)

Georgia(14)

OSU(24)

Baylor(24)

Wake(21)

CSU(23)

Colorado(17)

FAU(3)

NU(49)

UNM(6)

ATM(41)

ULM(20)

Texas(59)

UMass(17)

KSU(21)

No. Col.(3)

KU(49)

NDSU(17)

Iowa St.(34)

UND(13)

Tech(38)

Morning Coffee Apparently Forgot the Title

I Know He's The Roommate, But Isn't He Also The Flanker?

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

BYU
(14)

OU
(13)

Georgia
(14)

OSU
(24)

Baylor
(24)

Wake
(21)

CSU
(23)

Colorado
(17)

FAU
(3)

NU
(49)

UNM
(6)

ATM
(41)

ULM
(20)

Texas
(59)

UMass
(17)

KSU
(21)

No. Col.
(3)

KU
(49)

NDSU
(17)

Iowa St.
(34)

UND
(13)

Tech
(38)