SB Nation - Roddrick Muckelroy

Morning Coffee: Sunshine Pumping Edition

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:24:37 -0000

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As mentioned in Sunday's Celebration and Reflection post, there is plenty of time for worrying about what went wrong against Nebraska and what could possibly go wrong against Alabama. In that spirit, here's a sunshine pumping edition of Morning Coffee focusing on the positives.

Eyes on the prize. For the Texas football team, there were three goals for the season -- winning the Big 12 South, winning the Big 12 championship game, and then making it to Pasadena to play for the national championship. With the weak schedule, each goal became absolutely necessary to reach the next. A loss in conference play might not have kept Texas out of the championship game for the Big 12, but it would have kept them from having a chance at Pasadena.

My oponent preview for The Eyes of Texas magazine this summer was entitled "Expect Perfection" -- that's been the narrative the entire season. In fact, that was the narrative even stretching back to last season, the reason why all that success seemed like such a bonus. Texas fans are famous for outsized expectations, but how could there be more pressure than for a fanbase to expect a berth in the national championship game for two full seasons? For anything less than perfection to be a monumental disappointment?

Even though this post will focus on the positives of the Nebraska game and future posts will analyze the numerous breakdowns, ultimately the eyes of Texas rest on the ultimate prize -- that crystal football. The parallels to the last Texas appearance in the Rose Bowl are significant and could grow even more pronounced if Colt McCoy loses the Heisman to Mark Ingram this weekend. Like USC, Alabama is highly favored in the game, with pundits across the country writing off the chances of the Longhorns, just as they did in 2005. Like the 2005 team, these Longhorns are led by an experienced quarterback, one of the greatest in the history of the program, and backed by defenses filled with future NFL players. The visit to Pasadena will seemingly complete the cycle, as McCoy will fulfill the trust that Vince Young put in him when Young told McCoy he would be the next quarterback at Texas before trotting onto the field to win the national championship. The symmetry is perfect, just like this season.

The bottom line is this -- in the only two close games this season, Texas found ways to win, the ultimate mark of a champion. There was no room for imperfection, the disappointment of a loss too great to even fathom. So they did not lose and now have a chance to win it all.

The clutch kicker. Throughout most of the season, the reliability of Hunter Lawrence seemed like a bonus, a luxury even -- just a way to keep putting points on the board even if the offense stalled on a long drive, the guy who would maintain momentum with his solid kicking. Against Oklahoma, he hit all three of his field goals, including twice from 42 yards, each kick crucial to the eventual win. For Texas fans, it was heartening -- proof that the kicker would be reliable in a big game in the distant future. Most believed that if Lawrence was going to kick a game-winning field goal, it would be on the biggest of stages in the Rose Bowl.

Except fate wrote a different script -- the struggling Texas offense, stymied all evening by Ndamukong Suh and a swarming horde of defensive backs, used two big Nebraska penalties to move into field goal range down by a single point, then nearly ran all the time off the clock because the four-year starter at quarterback didn't know that the clock doesn't stop on a ball thrown out of bounds until it hits something. Hardly a chip shot, the subsequent kick was the most pressure-packed of Lawrence's life. To top it all, the senior kicker would attempt the first game-winning kick of his collegiate career.

A miss would mean a lifetime of ignominy, known as the sorry kicker who cost the Longhorns a chance at a crystal football. A make would mean a place in Longhorn lore among the all-time greats, a lifetime of congratulations from strangers and free drinks at the bar. Only this wasn't a chip-shot field goal, it was a 46 yarder, a distance from which even the best kickers in the NFL are not automatic. Hell, the Redskins lost to the Saints this weekend because their kicker, now unemployed, shanked a 23 yarder, the type of kick random fans make at halftime promotions every weekend across the country.

Not only that, but the big Nebraska line stood in the way, responsible for five blocked kicks on the season, with Suh repsonsible for three himself. Perhaps cognizant of their position on the right side of the Texas line and despite kicking from the left hash, Lawrence angled the kick left, wide of the beefy hands raised to deflect it, to destroy the Texas title hopes. Left just far enough, but not too far, with just enough draw to bring it back right to sneak through the left upright with only inches to spare.

In the ensuing celebration, Lawrence found himself at the bottom of a exultant dogpile, then lofted on the shoulders of his teammates as the Longhorn nation let loose with a hearty exhale. Though the game may have ultimately been unsatisfying, there could be no doubt that Lawrence had proved his mettle in the most clutch of situations, making sure that if there is a next time for such a kick, it will be on the biggest of stages. And the anxiety for Texas fans will be much less pronounced -- after all, Hunter Lawrence has done this before.

Malcolm Williams and a double move. The big sophomore receiver didn't have a particularly high number of catches against Nebraska, but each of his three was important in the context of when they occurred -- the first catch, for 16 yards, picked up a first down to move Texas deep into Nebraska territory on the drive that resulted in the only touchdown of the game, the second catch came as McCoy was under pressure on the long drive that ended with Dejon Gomes taking the ball from Dan Buckner, and the final catch came on 3rd and 16 on the same drive with McCoy under pressure again. All three catches came with a defender in his face and all three were difficult. In pressure moments, Williams made the catches.

In a game when the Longhorn receivers had trouble getting separation, it was Williams who most consistently was able to beat press man coverage by getting inside releases on two of his catches. On the third, he paused in his stride and gave just enough of a shake to get the defender to bite on the hitch and, had McCoy had time to set his feet and deliver the ball downfield, beat the defender enough to pick up a huge gain on the play. The concern on the part of the Nebraska cornerbacks to match his physicality with physical play of their own also led to a pass interefence penalty, as the Husker corner had his hands on Williams trying to push him towards the sideline after McCoy had released the ball.

And it could have been an even bigger day -- Williams got behind a Nebraska defender on another third-down play, but McCoy threw the ball out of bounds, failing to give his open receiver a chance to make a play on the ball. Unlike the smaller Texas receivers, Williams is better suited to beating press coverage, using his strength to get off the line of scrimmage and when he does get an inside release, he can screen defenders with his size. When McCoy is under pressure, the ability to throw the football up for Williams to go get it makes him a security blanket for the senior quarterback almost on par with Jordan Shipley.

Shovel passes, quarterback draws, and a zone read. It was an astounding sight. On the second play from scrimmage, following a terrible chop block penalty on Chris Hall (one of two such terrible calls on the night), Greg Davis dialed up a shovel pass to Tre' Newton and it worked, picking up 25 yards, perhaps the first time in years that Davis not only called it at the right time, but that the Longhorns executed it correctly, with Hall getting downfield and delivering a block. Twice more Davis called the play and twice more it worked. Against a defense with aggresive defensive tackles trying to get upfield, using the shovel pass was some of Davis' best work in the game.

Likewise, with the Nebraska defensive tackles getting upfield and the linebackers either bailing out into coverage or not on the field at all, the quarterback draw was also an effective play for Texas, as McCoy scored the only touchdown of the game on the play and picked up positive yardage every other time the Longhorns called it with the exception of the final drive when the Texas was already in field goal range. Besides the shovel pass, one of the few other positive plays early in the game was a zone read McCoy kept for a 14-yard gain, but only called one other time. In fact, besides an eight-yard run by Newton, all the other runs of eight yards or more came from McCoy.

Looking back, Davis probably should have called the quarterback draw and used the zone read more often because the zone play and counter were not particularly effective in the game and power was only slightly better. One of the benefits of running the zone read is that the inside zone play becomes more effective because it puts doubt into the mind of the defenders, particularly the backside defensive end and linebacker and giving the offensive line better numbers and an extra combo block. Since Nebraska contained McCoy in the pocket on passing plays, the called runs were the only way use McCoy's legs and his legs were the most effective weapon for the Texas running game.

Playmaking defense. It's been a theme all season, so it's no surprise that the Texas defenders were able to make plays in big moments, particularly the secondary. The Nebraska offensive plan revolved around setting up play-action passes downfield with their running game and mixing in some screens, but the Longhorns never sold out to stop the run, instead controlling the line of scrimmage with the front four and strong play from Keenan Robinson, Roddrick Muckelroy, and Emmanuel Acho, while keeping the secondary back to take away deep passes.

On the first attempt downfield, Blake Gideon intercepted a Zac Lee pass thrown too far inside and with too much air under it. Then, after Nebraska blocked Justin Tucker's punt at the start of the second quarter, the Huskers took a shot at the end zone, but unfortunately decided to pick on Aaron Williams, who intercepted another pass with too much air under it, perhaps keeping points off the board -- Nebraska needed only a handful of yards on that drive to reach field goal range. In the third quarter, Muckelroy's interception, only the second of his career, helped the Longhorns win the field position battle over the next several possessions that eventually led to a field goal, as Texas needed no more production than a 12-yard run from McCoy and a pass interference penalty to get into range.

Those were the big plays, that ones that show up in the box score as turnovers. However, there were other plays equally as important, ones that don't show up in the box score. At the start of the fourth quarter, Nebraska had the ball at the Texas 38 yardline, right at the edge of Alex Henery's field goal range -- he hit one early in the game from 52 yards that looked like it had enough distance to have been good from nearly 60. On second down, the Huskers went downfield to their best deep threat, Niles Paul, who had worked behind Curtis Brown just enough to be open. Lee finally delivered an accurate pass and Paul went up over Brown to make the catch. But just as he secured the football, Earl Thomas launched his body into the Nebraska receiver and jarred the pass loose, a play that might have saved the game for Texas. The type of play that only the best defensive backs in the country make. Still, Henery would have had a good chance at making the 55-yard field goal, but the Longhorns defense made another play on third down -- Keenan Robinson read the screen pass from the start of the play and beat a blocker to take down Rex Burkhead and knock the Huskers five yards back and out of field goal range, forcing a punt.

Then, the Nebraska offense got the ball at the Texas 10 yardline following the long punt return by Niles Paul, the defense stopped Burkhead twice and on third down Chykie Brown's defense was just good enough to force Brandon Kinne to catch the ball out of bounds. Nebraska kicked a field goal when a touchdown probably would have won the game.

With the offense providing the defense with almost no margin for error, the defense made no errors and came up with big plays with the game on the line. Without having to load the box, the front six and seven of the Texas defense stopped the downhill rushing game of Nebraska, holding the line and disengaging from blockers to make plays. Ben Alexander played more snaps than he ever has and effectively plugged the middle, while Sam Acho led the team in tackles. Nolan Brewster rebounded from a poor game against A&M to blow up two plays by submarining Suh -- excellent work by a safety taking on a big defensive tackle. And all that makes the struggles against A&M seem like a thing of the past.

A Time to Celebrate, A Time to Reflect

GhostofBigRoy — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:24:57 -0000

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The Longhorns may have needed a few lucky breaks to overcome the Cornhuskers and the incomparable Ndamukong Suh and any proper analysis of the game will reveal a litany of complaints regarding every facet of the offense. But with more than a month until Texas faces off against Alabama in Pasadena, there will be plenty of time for to analyze, further analyze, and overanalyze the Nebraska game and everything related to the match up between the SEC champion and the Big 12 champion.

Today, however, is a day for celebration, for reflection. For celebrating a team that accomplished a feat that only the 2005 team accomplished under Mack Brown -- beating both Oklahoma and A&M in the same season while finishing undefeated and winning the Big 12 championship. For celebrating a team that replaced three starters along the defensive line, lost a starting linebacker to injury in the first game, and absolutely counted upon improvement from the entire secondary and role players like Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Kheeston Randall, and Ben Alexander. For celebrating a team that replaced two starting receivers after the departure of ultra-reliable Quan Cosby and the academic ineligibility of Brandon Collins, who broke out in the final games of 2008.

For celebrating a team that discovered leaders in Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, and Roddrick Muckelroy. For celebrating the effort of Marquise Goodwin against Oklahoma, Colt McCoy's year-saving tackle after his late-game interception, interceptions by Earl Thomas, Curtis Brown, and Blake Gideon against Oklahoma State, exorcising the demons of a certain Halloween past. For celebrating Hunter Lawrence, one of the greatest kickers in Texas history. For celebrating a team the lived up to the highest of standards -- perfection. Losing was not an option and this team did not lose.

Today is a day for reflection. Reflection on the how the seasons ended in 2006 and 2007, with the Longhorns dropping games to Kansas State and Texas A&M late in the season, causing both teams to lose opportunities to play for the Big 12 championship and make it to big-money BCS games. Reflection on why those teams fell apart -- mostly the complete and utter inability of those defenses to stop the passing game and imperfect defensive coordinators. Reflection on the best decision that Mack Brown has made as head coach at Texas in his hire of Will Muscahmp as defensive coordinator and the subsequent decsion to name him the next head coach of the Longhorns. Reflection on the other hard decisions that Brown made to forge this team into a champion -- bringing Major Applewhite back to Austin, moving Ken Rucker into an administrative position, instituting a higher level of accountability, looking hard at himself as a coach.

Most of all, it's a day for reflection on just how far the Longhorns have come since last season. Reflection on the feeling of complete and utter lack of control, having relinquished all power to determine the ultimate destination of the team with the last-second loss in Lubbock. Reflection on the 45-35 campaign, all the politicking and arguments about the meaning of head-to-head victories and resume ranking, planes with banners flying over stadiums, accusations of whininess directed towards a heartbroken fanbase. Reflection on the hatred of Bob Stoops after risking the health of his starters to string together 60-point scoring games. Reflection on how karma can be a bitch, can't it Big Game Bob? Reflection on how 0.128 is now in the past, just a small wound now healing, a footnote to history. Reflection on just how hard this team worked to avoid a repeat of last season, how hard they worked to keep their BCS destiny in their own hands.

Yes, today Burnt Orange Nation must celebrate and reflect, look back upon the road now traveled, full of victories and nary a defeat. The cycle is now complete -- Texas returns to the Rose Bowl four years after Vince Young stood there in confetti, having won one of the greatest college football games ever played. After the loss by Florida, the Longhorns have the nation's longest winning streak, now standing at 17 games. Not only that, but Tim Tebow's college career is all but finished, with the lasting memories an impotent speech to his defense and him crying on national television like a six-year-old Sooner fan. After a long season, Texas is undefeated and headed to Pasadena. There is time in the coming month for all the worry a Longhorn fan desires, so what is there to do today but celebrate and reflect, with a strong emphasis on the former?

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes: Texas/Nebraska

Mocking Dan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

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Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: McCoy might be the most polarizing figure among draft followers. Those who like him point to his accuracy, leadership, winning ability and football intelligence. Those who don't wonder about his throwing motion, size and arm strength. McCoy will have to be put in the right offense or he could struggle at the next level.

Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas: The senior has been electric this season. He's fifth in the nation in catches per game and sixth in receiving yards per game. Most impressively, other than the Oklahoma game, he's been consistent. Shipley shows good hands, runs nice routes and has good speed. A comparison to Reggie Wayne might be a stretch, but only a slight one.

Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas: If one thing has been proven this season, Kindle should play at linebacker in the NFL. While he hasn't had a bad year, he hasn't played great. As a linebacker, he can use his strength and quickness to get after the ball. Off the line, he can be blocked too easily.

Roddrick Muckelroy, OLB, Texas: Where Kindle has struggled, Muckelroy has excelled. He leads Texas in tackles and has nine tackles for loss on the season. He's emerged in his senior season as a reliable linebacker who always seems to be near the ball. Muckelroy can struggle in coverage, and could start his career as a backup.

Earl Thomas, SS, Texas: Thomas has overtaken Tennessee's Eric Berry as the best playmaking safety in the nation. Although he's only a redshirt sophomore, don't be shocked if Thomas goes pro and becomes a first-round draft pick. He has great instincts and good speed and agility.

Lamarr Houston, DT, Texas: A converted high school running back, Houston has developed nicely as a defensive tackle. Houston makes a lot of players in the backfield and really gets after the quarterback. He plays low and gets good leverage. Houston is a very good sleeper prospect to keep an eye on.

Adam Ulatoski, OT, Texas: Although he plays on the left side for Texas, Ulatoski is almost exclusively a right tackle prospect. He's strong, but a little slow off the snap. He struggles against speed rushers, but can mirror players in front of him.

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: Much like Rolando McClain, there's not a lot to say about Suh that hasn't been said already. He's bar none proven to be the best player in college football this season. He's dominant and single and double teams and looks like he can play in any defensive scheme.

Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska: A redshirt sophomore, Crick has certainly benefited from playing next to Suh. But don't sell his ability short. He's big and strong and holds up well against double teams -- when he faces them.

Rams going with a QB, DE and OLB in early mock draft

VanRam — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:20:41 -0000

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"Oh, can I feel them?" USC defensive end Everson Griffen

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Who's ready for a mock draft? I thought so. With the St. Louis Rams sitting at 1-10, it's a great time to take a look at some of the mock drafts out there and start getting some fodder for discussion.

Browsing around Walter Football this morning looking at prospect rankings, I checked out their mock draft, which was last updated today. Their mock has the Rams addressing three key needs through the first three rounds. Given the success of the first three round picks in 2009, it's an encouraging sight to see. (Of course Bradley Fletcher, er, I mean Fletcher Bradley has had an injury derail his season). Alright, here are the Rams first three picks from Walter Football:

Round 1, #3: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Marc Bulger suffers a season-ending injury the week after Peter Petrelli loses his healing abilities... coincidence? Probably.

It'll be shocking if Bulger is back in 2010, and Kyle Boller certainly isn't the answer. The Rams need a franchise quarterback. The question is which guy they'll select.

If Jimmy Clausen is off the board, Jake Locker will be the guy; he has moved ahead of Sam Bradford in the wake of Bradford's multiple shoulder injuries.

Round 2, #34: Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Aside from Chris Long, all of the Rams defensive ends will be free agents in March. St. Louis needs to get more than 18 sacks on opposing quarterbacks anyhow.

Round 3, #65: Roddrick Muckelroy, OLB, Texas

The Rams traded Will Witherspoon to the Eagles, so their current starting weakside linebacker is Paris Lenon. It doesn't get much worse than that.

Full disclosure, I don't know much about Muckelroy at all. Aside from that tiny little detail, I like this draft. The one thing you could make a case for is throwing a WR in the mix, maybe Brandon LaFell from LSU, who they have going in the second round. Of course, in a year deep with DL talent, getting Griffen in the second round is hardly a bad deal. This approach would necessitate some important moves in free agency, most notably signing a DT and a WR.

What do you think about these picks? Is this a reasonable route to pursue for the Rams? If it shook out like this in April, would you be disappointed?

texas Preview

Beergut — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:09:48 -0000

Here we are again, with the annual A&M-texas game back on Thanksgiving night, where it belongs. The 6-5 Aggies will face the 11-0 longhorns Thursday night; the longhorns are playing for an undefeated regular season, and to keep their national championship dreams intact; the Aggies are playing for their third win over texas in the last four years, and to guarantee an overall winning season by defeating their archrival.

texas leads the Big 12 in scoring offense (42.5 points per game), and is second in scoring defese (13.3 ppg), while A&M is third (33.5) and last (31.2), respectively. Where texas is really outstanding is on run defense, giving up only 55.1 yards per game. That will make anyone one-dimensional on offense, but texas is also outstanding in pass defense, giving up only 188.6 yds per game. Will Muschamp has done a phenomenal job with his defense in Austin.

Offensively, the star of this team is WR/PR Jordan Shipley. I know the media loves to fawn all over quarterback Colt McCoy, but Shipley is really the player who makes this texas offense go. He is McCoy's security blanket on offense, and normally his first option on most pass plays. (Coincidentally, they are also roommates and best friends who like to go fishing together. Their fathers were also roommates when they played together at Abilene Christian years ago. ROOMMATES!!! Bet you didn't know that.) Shipley has 91 receptions for 1204 yards and 9 TDs on the season so far, and he still has at least three more games to play. Shipley also leads the Big 12 in punt returns, averaging 13.3 yards per return, with two taken back for a TD. If we hope to contain texas' offense on Thursday, we need to find a way to control Shipley.

QB Colt McCoy has had a solid but not spectacular season, completing 286 of 392 passes for 3024 yards, 23 TDs, and 9 interceptions. After leading texas in rushing a season ago, McCoy has only 193 yards rushing on 93 carries and 1 TD. Because our defense is so mediocre as stopping the run, I expect texas to call the zone read quite often, and also call designed QB runs for McCoy to hopefully boost his Heisman candidacy. We need to force the give to the RB on every zone read and punish McCoy, because the RB is the lesser threat of the two when carrying the ball. McCoy can scramble to avoid pressure, run to the LOS to bring the cornerbacks and safeties up, and then pass over them for a big gain. We need to get pressure on McCoy and force some turnovers; he averages over a turnover a game, and we need to keep him on track and get him frustrated. If Von Miller, Matt Moss, Spencer Nealy & Co can rattle his cage a little, that would help immensely.

Running the ball has been something of a mixed bag for texas; they don't have a single rusher ranked among the Big 12's top 12 runners, and they rank 5th in the Big 12 in rushing, averaging 152.2 yards per game. Part of texas' problem running the ball seems to be their offensive line, which has been average at best this season, failing to become the dominant unit many expected. texas doesn't have a single back who has rushed for over 400 yards this season, but they have three at 300 yards or more (Vondrell McGee, Tre Newton, Cody Johnson). Their leading rusher, Tre Newton, who should start against us Thursday, has carried the ball 67 times for 370 yards (5.5 ypc average), and 5 TDs. Newton is a solid back with good balance and decent speed; the reason he doesn't have better numbers has to do with texas' running-back-by-committee approach, a mild concussion he had earlier this year that cause him to miss some playing time, and poor execution by the offensive line. Newton should get the bulk of the carries on Thursday, with Cody Johnson coming in for short yardage situations. When texas goes to their 21 or 22 personnel for short yardage or inside the red zone, you will see fullback Antwan Cobb enter the game. Cobb rarely carries the ball (1 carry for 3 yards on the season so far), but he is a very dependable blocker, and does his job well. If any texas running back is close to 100 yards rushng by the end of the third quarter, you'll know we are in trouble.

Defensively, it all starts up front for texas, where they are led by DT Lamarr Houston and DE Sam Acho. Houstn has 43 tackles on the season, 19 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, and 2 fumbles recoveries. Acho has 41 tackles, 11 TFL, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries. These two are a deadly inside-outside combination up front, and do a good job wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines. Acho and Houston are backed up by a very capable linebacking corps in Roddrick Muckelroy (72 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 sacks), Keenan Robinson (51 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack), and Emmanuel Acho (43 tackles, 10 TFL, 3 sacks); if you get past the defensive line, those three are waiting to clean up. texas' secondary is led by safety Earl Thomas, who has 57 tackles, 4 TFL, and a ridiculous 7 interceptions on the season. Blake Gideon is solid, but unspectacular (49 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 PBU), while CB Aaron Williams is a playmaker (33 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles). Against good defenses, you run right at them, and I think we would be most effective running Power right at WDE Sergio Kindle, who has been a disappointment this season when you look at the preseason predictions. In the passing game, I would try to attack Blake Gideon as much as possible, and try use the short passing game a lot, dinking and dunking our way down the field. If we can be balanced on offense, running and passing the ball effectively, we have a chance to control the tempo of the game, and give ourselves a chance to win. If we can have a good game on the ground, add around 20 yards or more to their season average of per game rushing, we'll win the game.

Will An Aggie Win Big 12 Player Of The Week This Season?

Beergut — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:37:01 -0000

In the movie S.W.A.T., the villain Alex Montel (Olivier Martinez) asks his lawyer who needs to pay off to get out of prison. When his lawyer says it isn't that easy, he says, "Then tell me who we need to KILL!" I am beginning to sympathize with Martinez's character as each week goes by, and again and again, I fail to see an Aggie earn Big 12 Player of the Week.

I am a realist, and I know our players aren't deserving of an award every single week. However, when I look to see who has won, and Colt McCoy wins Offensive Player of the Week last week for passing for 269 yards and 3 TDs against Missouri, and Landry Jones wins co-offensive POTW this week for passing for 294 yards and 4 TDs in their win against Kansas State, I begin to wonder why Jerrod Johnson didn't win it this week for his 3 TDs passing, 1 TD rushing in our win against Iowa State. I don't have a problem with Baron Batch winning Co-Offensive POTW after his four rushing TDs carried Tech past Kansas, because he put together a phenomenal performance. I don't see what makes Landy Jones' performance so noteworthy, and I don't see how, if his performance is worthy of conference POTW recognition, why Johnson's is not. Both Johnson and Jones had better performances than McCoy did last week, so if the low standard set by McCoy's performance is our metric for comparison, both deserved consideration for offensive player of the week.

I am also unsure about what is going on with the Defensive Player of the Week award. While I think this past week's pick is a no-brainer, because whena defensive tackle has 13 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks, that is a candidate for national player of the week, not just a conference award. That is a career defining game, not just another weekend on the gridiron. I don't have any issue with Jared Crick winning Defensive POTW, just like I don't have any issue with Batch winning offensive POTW. I do wonder, however, Roddrick Muckelroy making 10 tackles, 2 TFL, and 1 sack on September 19 against Texas Tech makes him a better candidate for Defensive Player of the Week than Von Miller, who tallied 5 tackles, three QB sacks, and a forced fumble in A&M's win over UAB. You can say that Muckelroy's performance is more impressive because it came in a conference game, but I think that is a copout. You play who you play every week, and just because one team has re-arranged their schedule for television doesn't mean their performance should be given more consideration. This wasn't a game against the #1 team in the nation, this was a game in the third week of the season against Tech.

The UAB game was also the game where Uzoma Nwachukwu had his coming out party, scoring four touchdowns on four touches, 3 TD receptions and 1 TD rushing. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones received offensive POTW for his 6 TDs passing against Tulsa, and while I realize 6>4, a redshirt freshman making the second start of his career against Tulsa is less impressive than a true freshman performing like Nwachukwu did in the second game of his college career. When you consider that Nwachukwu stepped up after star receiver Jeff Fuller went down with an injury, his performance is even more impressive. Nwachukwu didn't know he would be such an integral part of the offense that week; Jones knew he was the starter all week, and could prepare accordingly.

So, I am left to wonder if an Aggie will win conference player of the week this season. I think in the absence of some phenomenal performance that represents a statistical outlier that the media members can't ignore (a 400 yard passing/100 yard rushing game by Johnson, or a 10 tackle/5 sack/2 INTs game by Miller), we won't see an Aggie make Big 12 player of the week on offense, defense, or special teams anytime soon.

Five Things to Watch Against Oklahoma State

GhostofBigRoy — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 22:25:54 -0000

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Can Texas get off to another fast start? This was a key last week and is something that is basically a key every week, but considering the wild history of Texas-Oklahoma State games, it becomes even more important. A breakdown of scoring since 2002 by quarters shows the trends of the match up:

Quarter	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Texas	33	73	134	78
Oklahoma State	75	66	27	16

Clearly, Oklahoma State gets off to much faster starts historically than the Longhorns, who come then roaring back, particularly in the third quarter. In fact, from 2003-2006 Texas dropped 121 unanswered points on Oklahoma State in the second half, a streak not stopped until Grant Jones returned a kick 89 yards for a touchdown in 2006 and was highlighted by the 49 straight points Texas scored in 2004 after going down 35-7.

Basically, history shows that if the Longhorns can get off to an early lead, Oklahoma State doesn't have the depth or athletes to compete with Texas in the second half. Last season, the Cowboys nearly came back against the Longhorns after Texas established a lead in the middle of the game, so the depth advantage probably isn't what it was a few years ago, but it's probably safe to say that if Texas gets off to a fast start and takes the crowd out of the game early, there is an extremely strong chance they win this football game.

Will Colt McCoy take care of the football? After throwing eight interceptions all of last season, McCoy is currently one of only two quarterbacks in all of Division I to have thrown an interception in each game. Four of those passes were tipped balls and Greg Davis believes that only two were poor decisions by McCoy, but no matter how or why the interceptions occurred, the result remains the same. McCoy also fumbled twice against Oklahoma, and among his three turnovers, two of them occurred in the red zone. Add in three dropped interceptions by Missouri and Oklahoma and the numbers could be much worse.

How well will the Texas linebackers play? Since Oklahoma State not only runs the football well, but also uses play-action passing effectively, as well as the screen game to the running backs, the Texas linebackers must play a good game for the Longhorns to win in Stillwater. Last week, during Missouri's only successful drive of the game, Roddrick Muckelroy and Keenan Robinson consistently found themselves either out of position or unable to get off blocks, failures that led to Muckelroy being benched for a portion of the game.

This week, they must consistently do a better job of not only getting off blocks, but also reading their keys to avoid being sucked in on play-action fakes and reading and reacting quickly to screen passes. On those play-action fakes, they must be conscious of their coverage responsibilities on the running back out of the backfield or the tight ends, who may not be playing on the level of Brandon Pettigrew, but have been a pleasant surprise nonetheless, particularly Wilson Youman.

Since Oklahoma State uses a great deal of 11 personnel with three wide receivers, it's possible that Will Muschamp may play three linebackers more often this week, while using only four defensive backs, leaving Blake Gideon as the only deep safety. It's also possible that Sergio Kindle could see more time as a linebacker this week, one of the adjustments Muschamp made last week to the Missouri running game. Or Muschamp could play with three down linemen and three linebackers, leaving five defensive backs on the field and maintaining more flexibility in coverage. Whatever the case, the play of the linebackers may be the key for the whole defense this week.

How will Bill Young choose to use his defense? Oklahoma State has not been a team that blitzes much this season, but opponents generally buck their season-long trends when playing against Texas. If Oklahoma State does choose to blitz, one thing that Young has always done well in his time as a defensive coordinator is study the hot routes opponents run against blitzes and take that away. Can the Longhorns still complete passes in the face of blitzes, then?

The other question mark is how Oklahoma State chooses to defend the Texas passing game. Generally, the Cowboys have played zone defense, with cornerback Perrish Cox often playing man-to-man against the best wide receiver for the other team. Will Cox line up against Jordan Shipley man-to-man, even in the slot, where teams generally prefer to give the receiver a cushion? If Oklahoma State plays zone, can players like Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin, who don't have a lot of game reps with Colt McCoy, be on the same page with the Texas quarterback when they settle into holes in the zone? In the game against Texas Tech, McCoy and Williams weren't quite on the same page when McCoy slightly overthrew the ball and Williams had it go through his hands for crucial interception. Can Williams and Gooding, as well as Shipley at his new/old position, punish Oklahoma State if they sit back in soft coverage in a way that James Kirkendoll and John Chiles could not earlier in the season?

Last season, Oklahoma State worked hard to disguise their coverages wtih a lot of pre-snap movement -- McCoy is at his best when he knows where he's going with the football before the play even begins. Oklahoma had success with a similar strategy, but one of Young's hallmarks this season has been a return to fundamentals and an emphasis on making sure that defenders are aligned correctly, eschewing disguised coverages. If McCoy can read the coverages easily pre-snap and Oklahoma State sits back in soft coverage like Missouri, the Oklahoma State secondary could be in for a long evening, especially since the front four for the Cowboys has done a poor job this season of getting pressure on the quarterback.

Can Texas continue to run the ball effectively? Using Greg Smith more often in the offense has greatly helped the Texas running game over the last two weeks, but Oklahoma State has been one of the better teams in the country at defending the run, allowing opponents only 99 yards per game, good for 18th in the country. Granted, the only strong rushing team they have faced was Texas A&M, ranked 33rd in the country. However, taking out from their per-game average the contest against Oklahoma State, the Cowboys held the Aggies to 56 yards below their average against everyone else.

For the Longhorns, the running game has improved in rushing the ball successfully -- defined now as picking up four yards, gaining a first down, or scoring a touchdown -- 61% of the time against Oklahoma to 67% against Missouri. With the offensive line now healthy for the first time the end of fall practice, there may be fewer breakdowns by individual linemen and better misdirection and more running plays to choose from should help as well. Add to the fact that the Longhorns now have some continuity at the position with Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson firmly entrenched as the one-two punch for the offense and Texas has a much better chance of running the ball well than they did earlier in the season.

Afternoon Brewsky Digs the "New" Receivers

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:59:58 -0000

Flavor of the Week at running back: Fozzy-CoJo one-two punch. Given that Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson have now gone two straight weeks (two!) as the top two running backs in the rotation, this feature may need to retire prematurely. However, there are always concerns about Fozzy's health (knock on wood) and giving a few carries to Tre' Newton or trying to get the ball to DJ Monroe five times per game could be beneficial to the offense.

Right now, though, Whittaker and Johnson compliment each other well and have each brought their particular strengths to bear against Oklahoma and Missouri. Johnson, in particular, has looked more impressive than ever, running with determination and a combination of quickness and power that Mack Brown obviously appreciates in a running back. Last week, I wrote that he was settling into a role as a fourth-quarter bludgeon, but the first drive against Missouri proved that he can do it early in the game as well, picking up a critical third and short, as well as pounding his way for seven yards after running through the tackles of four Missouri players. Has he even taken a hit in the last two weeks or has he given out all the hits on his tough runs?

As for Whittaker, he's no savior for the running game, but he does have good if not great speed. He's capable as a wide receiver, giving Greg Davis some flexibility in using him in empty sets and he ran harder against Missouri than he did against Oklahoma, seemingly trusting his body more and showing a greater willingness to pick up some tough extra yardage instead of leaving it on the field. The greatest asset that he brings to the table is his vision, allowing him to see the cut-back lanes, a point that isn't exactly a revelation at this point, but is still fundamental to understanding why Whittaker can be more successful in the Texas scheme than other running backs on the roster. It is, perhaps, simply a matter of time before he breaks a long running play.

New receivers pay early dividends. Missouri certainly didn't make it overly difficult for Texas to complete passes and pick up yardage early in the game by playing so far off the Texas receivers, but Marquise Goodwin and Malcolm Williams provided noticable upgrades over James Kirkendoll and John Chiles, while Jordan Shipley seemed to thrive in his return to the slot position, which allows him to catch more short passes, especially screens, while also having to ability to work inside or outside.

Despite predictably dropping an easy pass, Williams also showed that he deserves to be on the field with his combination of size and speed -- he's simply an extremely difficult player to tackle and on several of his catches, it looked like he was only one broken tackle or one step away from breaking a long play. At the end of the night, he totaled five catches for 53 yards and the first time that he's caught that many passes in a game -- against Tech he had only four catches and has had three catches on several occasions. If the coaches continue to play him, it's only a matter of time before he makes the same type of plays he did against Texas Tech last season.

The drops are a problem, but protecting the football is a larger issue, as Williams fumbled once and several times had trouble maintaining possession of the football after the play. Back to the problem with drops -- Greg Davis believes that Williams simply needs to do a better job of consistently attacking the football with his hands because he gets in trouble when he lets the ball get in on him.

In fact, with all the parallels between the Tech game last season and the upcoming trip to Stillwater, the game on Halloween night is the perfect time for Williams to finally fulfill the lofty expectations of Texas fans enamored with his physical gifts. Put the man on the field and get him the football.

Marquise Goodwin had an excellent night blocking, showing not only determination, but also an understanding of how to get up into defenders. Obviously, he doesn't have great size, but it never seemed to hurt him against Missouri, putting on a blocking performance that should have put James Kirkendoll to shame -- Goodwin probably gave better effort in one half than Kirkendoll has blocking all season.

Catching the football four times for 24 yards, Goodwin looked natural as always and didn't seem to have any moments of miscommunication with McCoy as he did at least twice against Oklahoma -- no doubt he is learning quickly, a remarkable ability of the young receiver. The biggest remaining question about Goodwin is just how much shake he has in his hips and if he has the ability to make defenders miss in space, but those questions will surely find some answers in the next several weeks if he continues to receive significant snaps.

Ultimately, it's difficult to separate how much the changes at receiver made a difference and how much of the first-half success was directly a result of Dave Steckel seemingly having little idea of how the stop the Texas passing game. For now, it's enough to say that the results speak for themselves and that players like Williams and Goodwin have a chance to grow with the offense as the season progresses and are major causes for optimism and a renewed belief that this offense can start clicking and put up the gaudy yardage and point-scoring numbers of last season.

Tracking: the "new" offense. It was probably not the best choice of words to say that the Texas offense was about ready to take a "complete 180," but that description does work in several ways. Last season, the coaches clearly committed to the four-wide offense and when Greg Davis went to EBS in the Texas Tech game, it was because he got scared, flat out. He felt like the offensive line wasn't protecting well, so he basically went to max protection, but the problem was that Smith didn't do well in some of his one-on-one opportunities, giving up a sack and obviously not providing the same threat in the passing game as the extra receiver. Overall, the decision was a net loss for that game.

Defensives started taking away what Texas was doing in four wide and the running game was struggling mightily, so Davis and Mack Brown decided to go back in the other direction, realizing that putting EBS in the game for more snaps would help the running game, particularly with misdirection, counters, and the possibility of using play-action more often and more effectively. The running game has improved with those decisions, but it was perhaps the play-action game that helped the Longhorns the most against Missouri. Starting out the game, Texas used play-action to get the linebacker covering Shipley a step out of position for a big gain and John Chiles had his first success down the field on a play-action pass. It's been some time since the Longhorns have so effectively run play-action fakes consistently in a single game. Perhaps several years -- the lack of a good play-action game has been a serious problem for some time, but at least for one game worked well. That's promising.

The other major change was supposed to be throwing more downfield -- how teams have played the Longhorns with two safeties deep and the effectiveness of the controlled passing game last season lead the coaches to eschew many long passes downfield, despite a player in Malcolm Williams who can go up and get the football using his size and athleticism. On that front, the Longhorns didn't attack down the field much, but they didn't have to because of MIssouri's softer than soft coverage. Brown said on Monday that there were some new wrinkles for the game the coaches didn't have to show because the first half went so well -- those plays could have been longer passes or they could have been new additions to the running game.

For the game, Texas played 11 personnel for around 80% of the snaps. EBS missed two pass blocks and one run block -- not a terrible game by any stretch of the imagination, but the coaching staff needs to be careful about how many times he gets matched up one-on-one on the edge, especially against an extremely talented edge rusher like Aldon Smith -- he wasn't great in those situations last year at about 30 or more pounds heavier and that's just not his strength right now. It's not necessarily his fault, much like last season -- the coaches just need to put him in a situation to more consistently be successful.

In the running game, he didn't dominate, but he was effective, providing a nice extra blocking surface and forcing the linebacker to have one extra gap for which they are responsible. The other aspect, of course, is his pass catching and he caught the only ball thrown at him for nine yards, but the surprising thing was that he was often open in the flat. Wide open. So were many other receivers on the same plays, but if other defenses deal with him the same way, there might be some chances to pick up yardage with EBS in the passing game if the defense isn't going to pay attention to him.

Overall, it's safe to say the offense will continue to head back in the direction of using 11 personnel at roughly the same 80% clip and it should continue benefiting the running game. To make the next step in improving the running game, the individual players on the offensive line need to perform better, but putting EBS on the right side of the line almost exclusively seemed to help Hix, who probably had his best game since ULM. At receiver, the changes clearly made a big difference, at least in blocking and should continue to help the offense improve moving forward. That should be a scary thought for the rest of the teams on the schedule.

Tracking: playmaking defense. After forcing five turnovers against Oklahoma, including three fumbles (two on special teams) and making two interceptions, the Longhorns only intercepted two passes and had the blocked punt by Curtis Brown. "Only" three turnovers because Texas didn't knock any balls loose, a similar performance to the Colorado game in that respect. It may have been mostly a result of Emmanuel Acho not getting a ton of playing time when Missouri was actually moving the football in the running game on their only touchdown drive, as neither Keenan Robinson nor Roddrick Muckelroy have shown the ability to relieve ball carriers of the football, but to be fair to Robinson, his sample size is pretty small. Muckelroy's is not. The bottom line is that the coaching staff is probably going to emphasize ball-stripping techniques again this week and the defense could really help the offense by forcing a fumble or two.

In the department of intercepting passes, the Longhorns continue to do a good job, but the biggest difference between now and earlier in the season is that players are finishing plays right now instead of dropping easy or relatively easy interceptions. Perhaps the biggest surprise in that department is Blake Gideon, who now has three interceptions after failing to pick off a pass all last season. Late in the game against Missouri, he read the quarterback's eyes and came off his man to intercept a pass intended for a receiver behind him along the sidelines, an excellent heads-up play. As long as he can make the plays he puts himself in a position to make, his athletic limitations aren't as much of a problem.

Chykie Brown also intercepted a pass, the first of his career, showing off his ability to react quickly by catching a tipped pass that ended up basically hitting him near the chest on a slant. While it wasn't an extremely difficult play, it's really his reward for having been around the football on so many short passes this year -- he's had his share of mental breakdowns, but his play this season has only been a disappointment compared to the high level of play turned in by Aaron Williams, Curtis Brown, and now Deon Beasley in limited opportunities. How about Beasley, though? It looks like coming so close to having his football career taken away from him has finally made him turn it up a notch on the field. He's actually a physical presence out there now. Good for him.

It's worth noting that both interceptions came off of back-up Jimmy Costello, but it's not like Blaine Gabbert was gashing the Longhorns in the passing game, though he did deliver an incredible pass to Danario Alexander into good double coverage by Robinson and Gideon. The Longhorns managed to knock Gabbert from the game on a sack by Eddie Jones, who continues to make the most of his snaps and continues to be a major success story for this team. Sergio Kindle was Sergio Kindle, disrupting plays. Missouri tried to run at him on the second play of the game and that's just a bad idea. That's just making it easy for him. Lamarr Houston was extremely disruptive and showed no ill effects from the OU offensive lineman trying to end his college career with a dangerous blow below to the knee in the Cotton Bowl. It's clear now that he is a defensive tackle through and through. It's hard to say enough about how well this defensive line has played and it's comforting to know that Ben Alexander can give the team some really good snaps up in Stillwater.

The bottom line -- right now it's dangerous to be an opposing quarterback facing the Longhorns.

Up on the high horse. The Tim Tebow love is sickening. Absolutely sickening. It was sickening when Thom Brennaman kept going on and on during the national championship game about how five minutes with Tebow would change your life. Hey, it's true -- if you've got some extra skin on your genitalia, Tebow will happily remove it for you. That's life changing right there. But what Tebow does with young Phillipino children isn't the point here.

The point is what Tebow did after his worst collegiate game, throwing two interceptions returned for touchdowns against MIssissipi State -- clearly, Tebow decided to channel his inner Jarrett Lee and that's just never a good idea. Instead of being a man, being the so-called greatest leader in the history of people leading people, and facing the media after his struggles, Tebow was nowhere to be found at the post-game press conference. Urban Meyer offered some lame, bullshit excuse about his quarterback visiting with his former offensive coordinator, current Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullens. Trash.

The cult of personality surrounding Tebow has gotten completely out of control over the last several years, but it's something that Tebow has more than embraced. He's allowed it to become what it is. His stupid speech after the Ole Miss loss last season that is ridiculously enshrined at Florida already. Congratulations -- as a quarterback, Tebow accepted responsibility for losing after failing to convert the crucial play of the game. Incredible! Has a quarterback ever taken responsibility for a loss they were responsible for in the history of football? Apparently not. The talk of how great of a leader he is all the time, yet his teammates visibly tune him out on the sidelines when he's giving them a tongue-lashing. Blah blah blah. Man up, Tebow -- you act like the second coming of Jesus, but then can't talk to the media after a bad game?

Colt McCoy, who obviously has no love lost for Tebow, saying several weeks ago that he has no relationship with the guy, had this to say ($) about avoiding post-game press conferences:

First of all, (Texas football communications director) John (Bianco) and them wouldn't let me do that if I wanted to. But I think it's your job as a leader, as the quarterback, no matter what, win, lose or draw, if you play good or you don't, you've got to go talk to the media. You're the voice for the fans to let them know what happened, and that's your job as a quarterback to do that.

That's right, Tebow, not only is Colt more of a man and a leader, but your SID is a weeny, too.

There were some murmurs last week about McCoy making excuses for his poor play against Oklahoma with talk of him being sick for the hundredth time this season and the thumb injury he said made it hard to hold onto the football and led to him fumbling near the goalline. Yet, McCoy still went and spoke to the media about it, manning up for his poor play. Not so Tebow.

It's certainly interesting to wonder why it is that Tebow and McCoy don't have some sort of friendship, given that both have deep religious beliefs and are seemingly cut from the mold. Perhaps McCoy feels resentment that Tebow gets such wide-spread adulation for snipping foreskins, while McCoy receives relatively little acclaim for travelling on two separate mission trips to Peru. Maybe it's frustrating to McCoy that he's a much better quarterback, but comparatively receives so little love for it. Of course, as Longhorns fans, it's actually beneficial that McCoy doesn't receive the same attention, as it would surely become just as sickening for the rest of the country as Tebow-love has become.

Given this last performance by Tebow, though? McCoy is not only a better leader than Tebow, which he showed, but he's also a much better quarterback than Tebow and every bit the runner, ably filling the unbelievably huge shoes of Vince Young, handling that pressure with aplomb. I'll take McCoy any day. You can buzz off, Tebow, I'd just as soon never hear from you again.

Crossfire Q&A: Texas

RPT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Fear this man. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The game against Texas this week has given us the chance to collaborate with one of the best sites in the business, as we welcome GhostofBigRoy from Burnt Orange Nation here to RMN to give us a better idea of what to expect from the Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

RMN: Before the season, my colleague Bill said he expected a regression from Colt McCoy's numbers, and the stats so far seem to have vindicated him in many respects. What's been the difference between Colt '08 v. Colt '09?

BON: It's not a simple answer, so I'll go ahead and divide it into a couple of points. First, the major change is defensive adjustments. OU blitzed a lot during the first half and so did Wyoming at times, but most teams have sat with two deep safeties and forced Texas to complete passes underneath.

Last season, Texas did that well and could move methodically down the field with the controlled passing game, but the failure to do so this year relates to the second factor, which is the loss of Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, two players McCoy relied on to complete third-down passes, in the case of Cosby also the hitch passes that he could turn into solid gains and Collins as his hot receivers on blitzes. McCoy has not established that level of comfort with the current receivers, who have struggled to create separation and, frankly, McCoy didn't help much early in the season because he was uncharacteristically inaccurate at points early in the year.

Those struggles have passed now, but the bottom line is that the receiving corps, notably John Chiles and James Kirkendoll, has been a disappointment overall and defenses have caught up with the Texas offense unveiled last season against Oklahoma, particularly in defending the crossing routes Texas used to convert many third downs last season and either disguising coverages to confuse McCoy's pre-snap reads or also using their coverage look to manipulate his read into something easily defensible.

RMN: The Texas defense is giving up an absurdly low 3.6 yards per play, tied for tops in the nation. How is the credit divided here? Has Texas amassed enough talent that schemes don't matter, or does Will "Boom" Muschamp get a lion's share of the credit too?

BON: Dividing the credit equally doesn't seem to be fair to the job that Will Muschamp has done at Texas. The recruiting has played a big part of it - guys like Sergio Kindle and Eddie Jones were the bluest of blue chips coming out of high school, but the staff did an excellent job identifying underrated talents like Roddrick Muckelroy, from a school East Texas school, and the Acho brothers, who played at a private school in Dallas. Don't underestimate, then, the collective recruiting the staff has done.

There is a ton of talent on that defense and none of those players were recruited by Muschamp. That being said, what Muschamp has turned this defense into is completely of his own creation, particularly Kindle, who was unbelievably lost in the shuffle during his first two years on campus - Muschamp took his talent and maximized it in a way the previous defensive coordinators had not. The previous coaches wanted to make him into a linebacker who could drop into coverage. Muschamp unleashed him on opposing quarterbacks because he recognized that Kindle is best served playing downhill, the skill that made him so highly regarded coming out of high school in the first place. In that way, Kindle is perhaps a perfect example of the overall effect Muschamp has had - players are now in a position to succeed and they are doing so.

RMN: The benching of James Kirkendoll isn't much of a surprise after his Zidane-esque headbutt in Dallas, but what gives on the benching of John Chiles (who looks like a freak athlete) and Dan Buckner (who I thought was a mismatch nightmare and one of UT's biggest weapons)? Is Texas deep enough at receiver that it really doesn't matter, or is Mack Brown just trying to send a quick message?

BON: The issue for Chiles is simple - he hasn't been producing and can't consistently get separation in his routes. Unfortunately, whatever athleticism he has, and it was certainly of great repute coming to Texas, it just hasn't translated onto the field for whatever reason. As for Buckner, Mack Brown said that he's concerned about his knee, but really Buckner is going to lose some snaps to Greg Smith because the coaching staff seems to desire a greater emphasis on the running game. That's the short answer. If anyone is interested in the treatise I wrote about the issue, it's here.

Basically, the answer to your question is both. Brown is trying to send a message (if it's a message to Buckner it's to block better), but the main thing to take from this is that the coaching staff finally decided it was time to let talented players like true freshman and two-time Junior Olympic long-jump champion Marquise Goodwin, who can certainly create separation with his blend of incredible speed and ability to get into and out of cuts, and Malcolm Williams, the star of last year's Tech game who has had trouble getting into the field this season, reportedly because of a combination of dropped balls and less-than-ideal work ethic at times in practice.

RMN: Can ANY team expect to run on Texas this year, much less a Missouri team that's been struggling on the ground all season?

BON: Looking down the line, Oklahoma State is a concern because they racked up more than 200 yards last year against a unit that didn't get run on much, just like this current one, and Alabama and Florida are both concerns, for slightly different reasons in a possible national championship game appearance. Other than that, the flat answer is no. Texas has given up 29 yards rushing in the last four games. Muschamp puts a big emphasis on stopping the running game on first and second downs to create tough situations for the offense, but still manages not to give up many big plays in the passing game on early downs. Missouri will have an extremely difficult time running the football against Texas, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

RMN: Seeing what you've seen this season, if you were the opponent (in this case, Mizzou), how would you go about attacking the Texas defense? How would you defend the Texas offense?

BON: Can I pass on trying to formulate a plan to attack the Texas defense? Thinking about this question makes me extremely glad that the Longhorns won't ever have to face a Muschamp-coached defense. Teams haven't had much success at all this season doing much of anything. Colorado had success on two touchdowns isolating a tight end on a linebacker in coverage, but Muschamp adjusts so quickly I'm not sure he's going to allow that to happen again and I don't know anything about Missouri having a threat in that aspect of the game like the two excellent tight ends they've had recently.

Other than that, Tech had some success with double moves against Chykie and Curtis Brown, but on one of the plays I'm thinking of with Chykie giving up a touchdown, Muschamp blamed the blitz not getting there fast enough. In fact, if Texas sends a couple blitzers and the Mizzou line can hold for a second, Gabbert could be able to find something downfield and that is probably their best chance for a big play. Really though, other than a couple breakdowns in concentration by Chykie, the secondary hasn't given up much this season, a huge change from last year. As for as defending the Texas offense, I think I would blitz some on early downs to try to get the Longhorns behind the chains and then sit back in coverage in obvious passing situations and keep everything in front. In my opinion, that's pretty much the book on the Texas offense, but it may be changing now with an increased emphasis on the running game and downfield passing off of play action. If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, though, I would just play by the book until Texas proves that it can run the ball consistently.

RMN: Bonus -- Should we hide our women and children when Sergio Kindle lines up across from the Missouri offensive line?

BON: Kindle is a beast, but I'm not going to predict any serious threats to the health of Blaine Gabbert just because the two times I've done that this season, Kindle was effective, but had relatively quiet games in terms of massive, Taylor Potts-like hits on the quarterback. Don't get me wrong, it's safe to say that Tiger fans should be afraid of Kindle, but with the way that the rest of the Texas defense is playing right now, it's really the whole unit that should be downright terrifying.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

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Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.