SB Nation - Tray Allen

Five Things to Watch Against Missouri

GhostofBigRoy — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 14:40:15 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Which Blaine Gabbert will the Longhorns see today? During the four non-conference games, Gabbert was exceptional, particularly for a first-year starter -- he threw 11 touchdowns with no interceptions and averaged more than 10 yards per attempt in victories over Furman and Nevada. However, once he reached Big 12 play, the numbers started to drop, as he's thrown five interceptions to only one touchdown in losses to Nebraska in the monsoon and Oklahoma State in Stillwater. It may simply be that the increased level of competition has brought Gabbert back down to earth, but he did also sprain his ankle when tackled by the beastly Ndamukong Suh in the Nebraska game and re-aggravated it last week.

The reason that's a big deal is that Gabbert is much more athletic than generally expected of a 6-5, 240-pound quarterback. An effective runner and scrambler, Gabbert has had those elements of his game either taken away or significantly reduced by his injury, leaving Missouri without a running threat at the quarterback position and Gabbert without the same ability to make plays downfield on the run.

The question, then, is whether Gabbert is healthy enough now to make those plays and if the Longhorns can put pressure on him to test that ankle and his ability to move. The Missouri offense is 88th in the country on third down, while the Longhorns have the best third-down defense in the country. If the Longhorns can stop Missouri and first and second down, then Gabbert may be in trouble and Texas has a good chance of forcing him to make bad decisions with the football, creating turnovers or simply forcing Missouri to give up the football.

Can the offense finally get off to a fast start, particularly the offensive line? It's no secret at this point that Texas has been ranging from mediocre to terrible at the start of football games this season. Can the Longhorns open up the game with a successful drive running the football? And why is it that the offensive line plays so terribly and makes so many mistakes early in the game? The adrenaline level of opposing teams probably makes a difference, but, ultimately, there's really no excuse for not executing assignments. Michael Huey may not play much this week with his ankle still bothering him considerably, so Tray Allen may receive his first extensive snaps in a close game this season, while David Snow looks to back up Chris Halle exclusively at the center position.

On a related note, do the Longhorns try to push the tempo early in the game to get the Tigers back on their heels? It has been an effective tactic at times, but teams are really starting to sell out towards the line of scrimmage when the Longhorns go jet tempo and quick-snap the ball from under center. Where is the package of play-action passes and bootlegs from this set? Texas has only passed once in that situation, a screen pass that resulted in a hold by James Kirkendoll because he didn't have time to fully line up and see his blocking assignment.

The other aspect in this is that Faurot Field, while not a massive homefield advantage for the Tigers, will host the largest crowd in 25 years for Homecoming, at the school that invented homecoming, and the fans will have all morning and afternoon to imbibe all the liquid courage they can handle. Getting off to a fast start could calm down a potentially raucous crowd and start removing some of that homefield advantage.

Will the run defense continue to dominate? Despite the worries nearly every week from Mack Brown, the Texas run defense has been dominant. In fact, dominant doesn't even seem to describe it well -- but the numbers tell the tale. Missouri isn't a good running team, ranking 101st in the country by Bill C.'s numbers. As mentioned above, if the Longhorns can stop the Tigers on early downs, then they can tee off on Blaine Gabbert on third downs, when Missouri is not particularly effective. It may be that Texas forces the Tigers to abandon the run early in an attempt to actually pick up yards on the early downs and that plays into the hands of Muschamp and his Legion of Boom, as Chip Brown now refers to the Texas defense -- I like it and I'm going to steal it. The sincerest form of flattery and all that, Chip. If the scenario just laid out comes to pass, Texas has an excellent chance of running away with the football game if the offense can produce at a reasonably high level.

What will the passing offense look like? Between BON and Barking Carnival this week, plenty of attention has been paid to the new Texas offense by numerous writers (here, here, and here). What is the result of all those changes? Wide receiver is a position to watch especially, with Jordan Shipley moving to flanker, Marquise Goodwin taking over in the slot, and Malcolm Williams now manning the split end position. Can Shipley and Goodwin create more separation than Chiles and Kirkendoll? Can Williams catch the football when it's thrown in his direction and can the Longhorns get a downfield passing game going to him?

Something to consider here is that Missouri has played the exact defense with their secondary that has been giving Texas problems this season -- sitting back in coverage, keeping everything in front of them, and allowing the underneath passes. The defense hasn't produced many turnovers, but it has limited big plays, the exact type of plays that Texas is now hoping to produce in the passing game. Will the Longhorns then be able to complete passes underneath and move the ball down the field or will Missouri be able to sit on nearly every single route Texas runs as Oklahoma did last week and opponents have generally been doing throughout the season?

What will the rushing offense look like? The running game is the next question mark. This week, Greg Davis admitted that he abandoned the running game in the first half against Oklahoma, to the overall detriment of the team. If Missouri is going to sit with two safeties deep and only seven men in the box, Texas has to be able to run the football, particularly early in the game to try to draw up the safeties and run some play-action passing downfield.

Will the misdirection continue to be a part of the offense? Texas last week actually ran a real, actual counter play with misdirection and a counter step -- they need to run it several times against Missouri, especially if the linebackers are flowing on the zone runs. McCoy was beat up last week, but needs to be a part of the running game, particularly running draws and the zone read, which re-appeared last week and helped McCoy make the long run on which he eventually fumbled near the goalline.

The other aspect of the running game is the Monroe series -- it's similar to the WildHorn, but instead uses Monroe in motion. The stealer-type play the Longhorns used last week needs to be run more than once for Monroe -- this season, he's only taken the one handoff on the first appearance of the series and one in the WildHorn, both times picking up 5-6 yards without particularly successful blocking, just his pure speed taking effect. The other two plays, a counter to the short side of the field and a quarterback counter that worked well, also need to see the light of day. Another play may surface this week, which is a power play for the quarterback used once in the WildHorn, as well as any pass plays the Longhorns have built into the formation.

Basically, the point is that Davis needs to commit to the series as a massive help to the running game and punish defenses for what they are giving up -- the whole idea behind series-based football is that the defense doesn't have enough resources to always be right. Abandoning this helpful series in the running game would be classic Davis stupidity -- here's hoping he knows better.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

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Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Missouri Depth Chart

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:54:23 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

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OFFENSE
Position	No.	Player	\|	No.	Player	\|	No.	Player
Flanker (Z)	8	Jordan Shipley	\|	11	James Kirkendoll		6	DeSean Hales
Sub B	84	Marquise Goodwin	OR	7	John Chiles	\|
Tight End (Y)	83	Greg Smith	\|	13	Ahmard Howard	OR	89	Barrett Matthews
	Flex TE: Dan Buckner
Right Tackle	64	Kyle Hix	\|	72	Britt Mitchell
Right Guard	63	Michael Huey	OR	56	Tray Allen	\|	54	Mark Buchanan
Center	71	Chris Hall	\|	78	David Snow	\|	75	Steve Moore
Left Guard	52	Charlie Tanner	\|	56	Tray Allen
Left Tackle	74	Adam Ulatoski	\|	77	Luke Poehlmann
Split End (X)	9	Malcolm Williams	\|	4	Dan Buckner
Tailback	28	Fozzy Whittaker	OR	31 2	Cody Johnson Vondrell McGee	OR	23	Tre' Newton
	Specialty Back: D.J. Monroe
Fullback	24	Antwann Cobb	\|	31	Cody Johnson
	Short Yardage/Goal-Line: Lamarr Houston
Quarterback	12	Colt McCoy	\|	3	Garrett Gilbert	\|	17	Sherrod Harris
Place-Kicker	15	Hunter Lawrence	\|	39	Ryan Bailey	\|	19	Justin Tucker

DEFENSE
Position	No.	Player	\|	No.	Player	\|	No.	Player
Buck	2	Sergio Kindle	\|	80	Alex Okafor
Tackle (Nose)	92	Ben Alexander	OR	91	Kheeston Randall
Tackle	33	Lamarr Houston	\|	96	Calvin Howell	\|	93	Tyrell Higgins
End	81	Sam Acho	\|	32	Eddie Jones	\|	95	Tevin Mims
Strongside LB	18	Emmanuel Acho	\|	1	Keenan Robinson
Middle LB	38	Roddrick Muckelroy	\|	42	Dustin Earnest
Weakside LB	1	Keenan Robinson	\|	18	Emmannuel Acho
Right CB	3	Curtis Brown	OR	8	Chykie Brown
Right Safety	21	Blake Gideon	\|	27	Nolan Brewster	\|	5	Ben Wells
Left Safety	12	Earl Thomas	\|	27	Nolan Brewster
Left CB	4	Aaron Williams	\|	3	Curtis Brown
Nickel	4	Aaron Williams	\|	12	Earl Thomas
Punter	19	Justin Tucker	\|	47	John Gold	\|	17	Trevor Gerland

SPECIAL TEAMS
Punt Returns	8	Jordan Shipley	\|	12	Earl Thomas	\|	3	Curtis Brown
Kickoff Returns	26 8	D.J. Monroe Jordan Shipley	\| \|	84 4	Marquise Goodwin Aaron Williams	\|	9	Malcolm Williams
Kickoffs	19	Justin Tucker	\|	15	Hunter Lawrence
Holder	8	Jordan Shipley	\|	17	Sherrod Harris
Deep Snapper (PAT/FG)	83	Greg Smith	\|	72	Britt Mitchell
Deep Snapper (Punts)	58	William Harvey	\|	48	Alex Zumberge

Follow after the jump for some analysis of the changes this week...

In perhaps the biggest shake-up to the depth chart this season, it's clear that the coaching staff is intent on making major personnel changes on the offensive side of the football, most notably in the receiving corps. Listed at split end all season, Jordan Shipley has now returned to his more natural flanker position at struggling against Oklahoma to get open at the X position, pushing James Kirkendoll into a back-up position after two terrible performances in a row. After leading the team in receptions and receiving yards on Saturday, as well as scoring the only Longhorn touchdown of the day, Marquise Goodwin is now listed as the co-starter with John Chiles at the sub-B position, but is listed first, portending a sharp increase in snaps for the all-world athlete. And, making the week for many Texas fans, it finally appears that Malcolm Williams will get a chance at Shipley's vacated X position.

On the offensive line, Tray Allen moves into a co-starter relationship with Michael Huey, though Huey is still listed first, while David Snow is now solely the back up at the center position. Early in the season, Snow was listed as backing up each of three interior positions. The Longhorns need to find an effective interior combination and need to do it soon -- only Charlie Tanner appears entrenched at his left guard position.

At running back, Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson remain the co-starters, with Vondrell McGee and Tre' Newton backing them up, along with DJ Monroe listed as the specialty back. Mack Brown says there is no way that he can get reps for all five, so expect McGee and Newton to see only limited action this week. Does Tre' Newton see some time as the third-down back or is he effectively buried now after injuring his neck?

On the defensive side of the ball, the status quo reigns, fitting after the dominant performance put on by Will Muschamp's charges. About the only thing worth noting is that Nolan Brewster is backing up both safety positions, ahead of Ben Wells.

Talkin' Texas: 2009 Longhorns Football at the Quarter Pole

Peter Bean — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

PB: Been a while since we've Talked Texas, my friend. I have to say I'm glad to be doing so under the circumstances we are. What's your quarter-term evaluation of the team?

Big Roy: Despite a few hiccups along the way, mostly involving McCoy interceptions, the first half against Wyoming, and some continued struggles with identity in the running game. I have to feel extremely happy about where the team is. The defense just rocked UTEP and teams are falling by the wayside every weekend in the Race to the Roses.

PB: We can quibble (and because we're unhealthily obsessed, undoubtedly will) about the minutiae, but I don't think there's any way around describing Texas' position heading into this week as pretty near perfect. I wonder whether we're having a different conversation if Texas' third game of the season was against UCF instead of Tech, but that scheduling change was a boon and I'm not sure we could ask for much more heading out of bye week.

Moving to specifics: Who's your favorite offensive player so far?

Big Roy: Unhealthily obsessed, huh? I can't quibble with the second part, but my health is quite excellent, sir, thank you. I believe Austin, Texas agrees with me well indeed. I would have to say that Dan Buckner's contributions to the offense right now ranks on top -- he's given the Longhorns that threat over the middle that they need in the Davis passing game and he's just such a mismatch in that flex tight end position, but not only that, he has great hands and McCoy seems to trust him.

PB: Your girlfriend says otherwise, slacker. (What?)

I will say that Dan Buckner is indisputably healthy, though -- kid is an awesome athlete just beginning to come into his own as a player. And I'm with you, if McCoy is the de facto MVP and Newton the surprise spark, Buckner has been my favorite offensive player so far.

Let's look forward a bit now: after four games who are you seeing as improved and/or with the potential to break out? I'll throw Tray Allen's name into the ring, for starters. He's taken the Step this year.

Big Roy: Mack Brown mentioned that this week and it's great to see Allen finally contributing and living up to the considerable hype that accompanied him to campus. My answer to that question is going to be a little bit vague, though -- I'm looking for a third receiver to break out. I don't know if it's going to be Kirkendoll or Malcolm Williams or maybe even a guy like Marquise Goodwin if McCoy can establish the same rapport with him that Gilbert already somewhat preternaturally does.

Maybe it's John Chiles. To me, McCoy is just too good not to establish a high level of comfort with one of those guys.

PB: How about Brian Davis? I mean Brandon Collins? I mean.... nevermind.

Big Roy: Facepalm.

From the Brian Davis school of academic progress.

PB: I think that's a good wish for a development we see soon, and I'll add a healthy Fozzy Whittaker to that list. I think McGee and Newton are perfectly fine, but I can't shake my optimism about Whittaker as a difference-maker. (This makes me a tried and true Texas fan, of course: the best player is always the one not playing.)

Big Roy: There is a Flavor of the Week spot open for the Mythical Fozzy creature this week with his name on it. I'm really excited about possibly being able to get through around half the season or so without having to repeat one yet. Hopefully I won't have to start stretching it soon.

I have to say I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the artist recently known as Fragile Fozzy (dadgummit, I said I wasn't going to use that for a while...) until he manages to produce for a couple games in a row. The potential though, why, it's mythic.

Drink that Kool-Aid, PB! You should get a pimp-style Longhorn chalice for that

PB: If you'd given the Flavor of the Week award to Jamison Whatshisname last week, you'd have a damn good shot at it. Live and learn...

Big Roy: I'm hoping that Jamison makes an appearance at CU this weekend, but if not, there's always UCF...

PB: It'll be fun when Berryhill outrushes Darrell Scott in DKR.

Jamison Berryhill: Not cursed.

Okay, defense. A radio guy asked me the other day if this was Texas' best defense ever. I told him to check the '83 archives and wait 'til the season is over, but it's not a stretch to think this unit might finish the season as Mack Brown's best-ever unit.

Big Roy: Ha! Hmm...I don't think I'm qualified to make that comparison -- whills is probably a better bet for something like that, but this defense does have potential greatness written all over it. It's no secret that I love me some Aaron Williams and to see a playmaker like Emmanuel Acho come on -- if there are players not protecting the football when he's around, it's got a good chance of coming out. And I think that is why this defense has a chance to be so good -- it's like the light switch has come on the last several weeks in terms of converting opportunities into turnovers.

On top of that, I think there is still room for growth as well. The only thing that concerns me is depth at defensive tackle and safety.

PB: This is why the Tech scheduling switch was so important. They got it going that Saturday night against the Red Raiders. UTEP paid the price.

(Taylor Potts: Excuse me?)

Big Roy: No doubt and it was a hefty Price for UTEP. Can you believe that ol' Mikey got paid for that performance? Guess he made amends last week. And that scheduling change really did work out well for the Longhorns.

PB: I hope you're running a set of stairs to punish yourself for that pun. Go on, I'll type while you repent.

Big Roy: I've got a nice hill beside my place. Does that count? The two of us have had some previous battles...

PB: I think the most comforting thing defensively has to be the exceptional performance we've seen from the defensive line. Seeing Eddie Jones and Sergio Kindle upright bookending the line is so sexy.

Big Roy: Jones is playing with the intensity of someone who has almost had football taken away from him. Perhaps because he has. I feel great for him being out on the field and contributing in such a meaningful way. Why is it taking three years for all these former five stars? Jones, Allen, Chiles, Kindle. That's the start of a trend right there.

PB: Do 2006-07 even count for those guys?

Big Roy: Yuck. Almost seems like they shouldn't, right? I certainly can't blame Kindle. Jesus, I just had some Killebrew - Bobino - Derry flashbacks. How did this get started again? Make it stop. But about Kindle -- that freaky leg plant is just sick. I tried to demonstrate what it looked like for someone the other day, didn't work very well. Re-watching that Tech game he just wore that tackle out. Okay, yes, these memories are much more pleasant. Whew.

PB: Yeah probably better not do that. You'll wind up like DJ Grant. Your knee no like.

Big Roy: Plus I probably look stupid, too. So there's whatever pride I hope to maintain as well.

PB: Moving back from the line, I have forgotten several times already that Jared Norton is a Texas Longhorn. And it has little to do with him, really. Robinson and Acho are just exceptionally talented and clearly ready for an exciting three-year run.

Big Roy: Definitely some flashes from both of them. Let's put Jordan Hicks in there, too, shall we? But I digress. Like said, though, flashes from them. The potential that is still there is sick. I mentioned this to someone the other day, but can we just make a football team filled only with Texans of Nigerian descent? How fun would that be? Pretty good, too.

PB: There's not much to debate about the defense -- very good, on the verge of truly great, and with championship potential. The Muschamp hire has been moderately pleasing.

Also pleasing: the special teams! Mack's had some good ST units before, but this group is outrageous.

Big Roy: DJ Monroe. You don't really need to say much more than that, but Shipley has been great, Tucker has been excellent besides the dumb play against Wyoming and truly does have the left-footed rugby punt down. And Malcolm Williams -- it's been a huge disappointment that he hasn't contributed more on offense, but his work on special teams is truly valuable. Hopefully the team is improving a bit in kickoff coverage, but it's hard to be good at that right now, as Brown is currently preaching.

PB: There's your third receiver, by the way. Davis needs to quit monkeying around with Shipley at split end, tell Malcolm he trusts him, and let he and Colt work it out. His blocking alone is plenty valuable; the catches will come.

Big Roy: It would be nice if it were that simple, but I'm not sure it is. I think Davis likes Shipley commanding a safety deep on his side of the field because it frees up routes on the other side, particularly Buckner in the middle. Of course, I like Williams is they decide to leave him one-on-one over there and blocking on weakside runs, but I just want him on the field right now, even just in the slot because he can help out blocking there too. Especially on a play like the speed option out of the WildHorn. I definitely agree about him just needing to play and until Kirkendoll starts making some more plays, I don't have any problem with taking him off the field for a while. More Malcolm, please!

PB: It's just not possible to say you can't stretch the safety with Williams, so if that's it, Davis is a fool. I actually think it's a lack of trust in Williams and that because his blocking is superior he's useful in the slot. Nevertheless, the better play in my mind is to get Williams back to split end, return Shipley to the slot, where those two have their highest ceilings. Of course, the non-con season would have been the time to work this out, but we're quibbling.

I know we've both got CU posts in the works, so let's wrap this briefly: Any predictions you wanna make?

Big Roy: There has been a little bit more work in the last two games with Williams at the X and Shipley in the slot, so I think it could be coming. Agree about the lack of trust, not sure if it's more with the coaches or McCoy, but the drops in limited action don't help -- that's two, with one intercepted against Tech late.

Okay, turning to CU now?

PB: Yeah, any predictions for Saturday?

Big Roy: Well, it seems that you have already gone with more rushing yards for Berryhill than Scott and I think that's a tough one to top. Mostly, I just think Colorado tries to run the ball to shorten the game and not make the final score look as bad as it could, but I think Texas loads up and forces a lot of 3rd and longs for rag-armed lil Hawk and crew and that's when the fun starts. Not for lil Hawk, though. It gets ugly early for the Buffs. (Did you know that lil Hawk is a lot like Colt?)

PB: Hard to predict anything other than a comfortable margin of victory. I'll save my full thoughts for my post, but I'm mostly going to be watching to see Texas attack the game with purpose. It would be a mistake to "save up" for OU.

Big Roy: I agree. This is serious preparation time. Unleash the Predator and the WildHorn. Stampede!

Okay, that was maybe a little cheesy.

PB: Are you auditioning for a columnist job at a newspaper? You're on a roll today, buddy.

Big Roy: I could be the next Kirk Bohls! Yes, I can! Yes, I can! (starting chant)

PB: And we're off the tracks. A sign to cut it off. Enjoy the weekend, sir. Hook 'em!

Big Roy: Indeed. And you as well, my friend in Longhorn football obsession. I'll be gettin' my horns up.

Pre-Game Musings: Colorado at Texas

Peter Bean — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 21:50:49 -0000

How bad are the Buffs? Colorado is better than a bread box but worse than Toledo. The quantitative translation according to Vegas: the Longhorns open as 32 point favorites. Other signs Dan Hawkins is running an intramural squad:

Colorado SID Dave Plati has conditioned press credentials on media publishers disabling comments for stories about the team.¹
Until last week, the Buffs were starting the worst pair of safeties I have ever seen on a (Division 1) football field. It's difficult to say which sophomore was worse against Toledo -- Anthony "Six-And-A-Half Steps Late" Perkins or Jonathan "When You're Not Running Past Me I'm Diving At Your Ankles" Mahnke -- but the tough decision was made to demote Mahnke. When asked about the demotion Coach Hawk explained that while neither of them gets to the ball in time, on the off chance they do, Perkins is slightly less likely to miss the tackle. At least we think that's what he was getting at with his answer: "By nature men are nearly alike; by practice they are wide apart."
CU quarterbacks have passed for a 103.1 QB Rating, worse than 109 of 120 Division 1 teams.
Following their 1-3 start, for Dan Hawkins to fulfill his promise that the team would win 10 games this season, Colorado would have to win 7 of its 8 remaining regular season games, the Big 12 championship game, and the Fiesta Bowl. (Or win out and lose in the Fiesta Bowl.)
Colorado's defense is yielding an average of 6.3 yards per play overall and an unconscinable 6.9 yards per play on first down. And with that, we invoke the mercy rule. More thoughts on the actual game after the jump.

¹Though I have in the past spoken with Mr. Plati, and like and respect him, this seems to me incredibly myopic and not in the university's best long-term interests. I'll withhold a full expose on the topic for another time and place. (Perhaps here?)

Looking ahead? It being certain that Colorado is a bad football team (and that my saying so is just the latest manifestation of SHORTHORN ARROGANCE), one might be tempted to argue that Mack Brown should approach the game conservatively, both to "save" our best looks for Oklahoma and minimize the risk of injury to key players. It's not an unreasonable thought, but for several reasons I think it's the wrong one.

For starters, with Texas coming off a bye week the Buffaloes offer 60 minutes of live competition to return to form. You can practice a hundred hours a week, but it's a fundamentally different exercise than live competition. The last thing Texas needs in the Cotton Bowl is to take a quarter or half to get going because players were trying to "flip on the switch" after going through the motions against Colorado. As Coach Hawkins is fond of saying: "He who kills the rodent today, bags the snake tomorrow." Or maybe that was Joe Kines. I forget.

Second, surprising the enemy on the football field is not like surprising the enemy on the battlefield. The only thing stupider than waiting to unload all your best stuff against your stiffest challenger is waiting to unload your best stuff after you've lost again to Oklahoma. Those days are thankfully behind us, and while the coaches will surely have a few wrinkles to add for Oklahoma, the RRS won't be a 60 minute series of Gotcha! moments. As always, it will be about well-coordinated series of plays, executed well. Give Oklahoma's defense a lot to process; the only times Brent Venables units dominate is when they can just out-athlete inferior competition.

And finally, there's no reason to believe you can tip-toe your way around injuries. A guy will either be in the wrong place at the wrong time, or he won't, and Lady Luck is indiscriminate about when and where she appears.

"I think you mean an indiscriminate BITCH!"

Opportunities knock. Not only would it hurt Texas to wait a week to fire the jets again, it would be a waste. As dominant as the team oftentimes has looked, few would say this group is running at max capacity. To name a few opportunities available on Saturday:

Get Malcolm Williams going. I noted my confusion when Texas' preseason depth chart listed Shipley as the starting split end and Williams in Cosby's vacated Sub-B position. It's not that Shipley can't play the position, or that if Williams isn't getting it done at split end that his superior blocking makes a move to the slot sensible. I'll even concede that this is a proper area to give the coaches the benefit of the doubt, given their more intimate knowledge of how guys are performing day in and out at practice. But if my plea for change is not meant as a criticism, it very much is a disagreement about the choice, however defensible. Simply put, it seems to me this team's properly trained goals (Pasadena or bust) should dictate making "high reward" choices where the risk level is in the acceptably low range. Developing Malcolm Williams has enormous potential reward and little to not risk, given the acceptable back up plan should the gambit prove fruitless. The coaches instead started the year with the alternative plan. Though they got it backwards and are beginning to re-commit to Williams at split end, the opportunities to develop against ULM, Wyoming, and to a lesser degree UTEP were wasted. No sense lingering on sunk costs, though -- the coaches have another opportunity this Saturday to try getting things going with Williams. My gut says he's in for a rewarding evening -- put me down for 5 catches and a score.
Take the Foz for a test drive. All hail the clutchy clutchness of Tre Newton, and good for Vondrell McGee for bouncing back to form against UTEP. Both players are perfectly capable tailbacks worth playing. Neither player, however, has the upside of the Mythical Fozzy Creature. Or maybe not and this is my Merrill Hoge Moment where I'm just stuck on the idea because of my preseason prognostications. What we do know is that Fozzy Whittaker is reported to be 100% healthy for the first time and if he is another "high reward" player who's only yet to prove it, the time to find out is Saturday. If it doesn't work out or he gets hurt once again, the 'Horns have an army of good-not-great tailbacks. Low risk, high reward.
Use the corners to stop the run. At their best, Chykie Brown, Aaron Williams, and Curtis Brown are elite cover guys, and there will come a time this season when Texas will need to leave them on islands to liberate the interior defenders to thwart a potent rushing attack. Colorado's offense is but a practice run, but good practice it will be. If Texas buries Colorado's running game in the first half, there's little in Cody Hawkins game to believe the 'Horns can't three-and-out the Buffs into a 28-0 halftime deficit.
Build the momentum along the O-Line. It often hasn't been pretty, but the offensive line has been spurting forward. The scaling back of the stretch plays and emergence of our bizarre version of the kinda-counter have illuminated the strengths and weaknesses of both individual players and the unit as a whole. With Michael Huey back to health and Tray Allen's exciting big step forward, even the preseason depth concerns are fading. It doesn't take Hannibal's army to be successful running the football in the Big 12 and there's no better assist Greg Davis could offer his star QB. I hope the positive trend continues.

WildHorn Part 2: Snap Shots Versus UTEP

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:12:46 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

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Part 1

After an impressive debut against Texas Tech, the Longhorns only used the WildHorn in the red zone and ran two plays: the counter read that accounted for 39 yards against Tech and what might be a power play pulling the playside guard into the hole. Concern about being able to run the ball in the red zone was the most likely reason for the coaching staff to only use the formation inside the 10 yardline, but the results were not particularly encouraging in that respect.

Play 1: Power Read

The Context

Early in the second quarter, leading 23-7, the Longhorns were already well on their way to blowing UTEP out and had sustained one long drive. However, Texas did fail to score a touchdown after getting possession inside the 10 yardline after the botched punt attempt by the Miners. On another sustained drive, the Longhorns found themselves inside the 10 yardline once again with a first down to start the second quarter.

The Play

In the now-familiar WildHorn formation, the Longhorns set up for a new play, though it looks like a counter read before the snap -- it has the same alignment. The first thing to notice is that since the Miners play in a 3-3-5 defense, the read man is now a linebacker on the strong side of the field. The second thing to notice is that instead of pulling the backside guard and tackle, only the playside guard pulls, this time into the hole between the backside guard and tackle -- the reason for calling it a power play, though the Longhorns might call it something else. The playside tackle stays to double team the strongside defensive end along with the center, Chris Hall. Notice also how close the safety is to the line of scrimmage because Texas is inside the 10 yardline.

The strongside linebacker heads upfield to take away Monroe, so Chiles makes the read of keeping the ball. Notice that Charlie Tanner has two options as he pulls through the hole -- the safety, highlighted, or the linebacker. I have the linebacker marked as Chris Hall's man, but it could be Ulatoski's responsibility. Either way, one of the players should get off the double-team block to take the linebacker -- that's one possibility. It's also possible that Tanner is supposed to block the closest player to the line of scrimmage when he pulls through the hole.

Tanner is locked in on the safety, while the linebacker steps up to meet Chiles in the hole.

Tanner throws a great block against the safety, eventually driving him into the end zone. The problem is that the player he decided not to block, the linebacker, is about ready to tackle Chiles. Notice also that Kyle Hix struggled to hold his block long enough to allow Chiles to make any type of move to avoid the tackler in the hole.

Despite the poor choice by Tanner, Chiles might have been able to make it to the end zone or close to it had Hix held his block longer, as the WildHorn triggerman mostly runs through the arm tackle by the linebacker but gets stood up by the end.

The Verdict

The adjustment in the blocking scheme is a good one because it doesn't try to pull a player to block someone already optioned off and gives the Longhorns a much better chance of breaking off a successful play by pulling the guard into the hole instead of to the outside, but the combination of the poor decision by Tanner, the inability to get off the double-team block and get to the second level by the playside combination, and the inability of Hix to hold his block resulted in a short gain for Chiles. It's all about execution, people.

Play 2: Counter Read

The Context

The drive featuring the first play out of the WildHorn formation stalled and ended in a field goal. The following possession for UTEP, the Miners actually managed to pick up a rare first down on a Donald Buckram run, but the Texas defense stiffened and forced a punt. Marching down the field, the Longhorns once again moved inside the UTEP 10 yardline.

The Play

Since Monroe is on the right of Chiles -- the weakside of the field, this play will be the counter read again. The major difference, however, is that Monroe is now lined up slightly in front of Chiles and maybe two steps to his right, a slight adjustment from all the previous iterations of the play. Returning to the version of the counter-read play shown against Tech, the backside guard and tackle will both pull. Instead of double teaming either the nose guard or the strongside defensive end, the left guard, Tray Allen, heads to the second level to block the linebacker.

For the second time in six WildHorn plays, Chris Hall makes another poor snap, hiking it above the head of Chiles and throwing off the timing of the play.

The read linebacker on the play breaks down at the line of scrimmage, giving Chiles the head of handoff. Of course, he can't make the handoff because he's attempting to secure the football. If the snap is good and Kirkendoll and Shipley make their blocks, Monroe has an easy trip into the end zone unless the safety in the middle of the field can make the play.

So, of course, the poor snap has disastrous results for this play, as the backside linebacker, unblocked in the scheme because he's on the backside of the play, is now in the backfield, as well as the defensive end good ol' EBS was supposed to block but had to chop because he had so far to go to block him.

Things are breaking down quite chaotically, as Chris Hall loses his block and Kyle Hix whiffs on a linebacker heading to the party. About the only two things that are going well for the Longhorns right now are the fact that Chiles has mostly avoided the oncoming linebacker who was supposed to be on the backside of this play to minimize the loss by at least a little bit and David Snow's nice block in the back of the supposedly optioned linebacker on the other side. I give Sam Acho more style points for his leg whip sack though.

Just for fun, here's if-then statement for most football plays -- if snap = FAIL, then play = FAIL. Chris Hall has a reasonably complex job as the center, but the issue here is that he's having trouble in the WildHorn with the simplest part of it.

Play 3: Counter Read

The Context

Up 47-7 coming out of halftime, Texas received the ball to start the second half. Eddie Jones and Marquise Goodwin had some communication problems on the short kick, leaving the Longhorns with the ball at the inside their own 10 yardline. Texas had to convert two third downs before Vondrell McGee broke off the big play of the drive -- his 51-yard run. On the play directly following, Greg Davis calls for the WildHorn for the final time on the day with the Longhorns at the UTEP 9 yardline.

The Play

For the first time, UTEP shifts their defensive front prior to the snap. Instead of leaving the weakside defensive end on the left shoulder of the Texas left tackle, he shifts inside a gap. Perhaps UTEP figured out that every time DJ Monroe is lined up on the weakside of the field with his "counter read" positioning several steps away and one step ahead of Chiles, that the Longhorns will run the counter read. That means that EBS must block that weakside end as the guard and tackle pull. As we will see later, that presents a problem.

It is indeed the good ol' counter read play, as Chiles will key on the strongside linebacker and Ulatoski and Tanner will pull. Besides the shift of the defensive line, it's pretty much the same defense UTEP used for the two previous WildHorn plays.

The weakside defensive end comes off the ball upfield with little resistance as EBS tries to block him without success. Meanwhile, Chiles reads the strongside backer crashing on Monroe -- it's a keeper. Hix and Huey both get good initial movement on their opponents.

Just as Chiles decides to keep the ball, he's faced with the defensive end almost right in his face. Ulatoski, the pulling tackle, picks up the block on the charging end, while Tanner throws himself in the general direction of the strongside backer, the player supposedly optioned off on this play.

Ulatoski gets a nice block, but the end disrupts the running lane for Chiles, who now has the avoid the backside baker pursuing the play.

Chiles uses his speed to beat the weakside defender to the hole, leaving two defenders for Chiles to make miss to pick up some yardage, one of whom, on the right, took several bad steps following Monroe.

The defender, probably accounted for in the blocking scheme by Ulatoski, who had to block the defensive end slicing into the backfield, makes contact with Chiles about two yards downfield. Chiles picks up another after contact, making this play by far the most successful WildHorn play against UTEP. Three whole yards. Yippee!

The Verdict

In the sunshine pumping world, the play a huge success, as Chiles picked up one-third of the yards possible on the play. It was also three times more successful than the second-best WildHorn play of the day.

In the real world, UTEP made a defensive adjustment to disrupt the play by virtually guaranteeing that they could get a guy almost unblocked into the backfield. There should be a line call by the center before the play to adjust the blocking, most likely by only pulling the guard and leaving the tackle to block.

The other aspect of this is that it seems like a waste of resources to have Tanner attempt to block the player supposedly optioned off on the play -- that's the point of option football, to option at least one defender off so you don't have to block him.

Stay Tuned

Part 3 will feature final thoughts on both games and some plays the Longhorns should have installed during the bye week.

Anatomy of Stagnation: EBS and Charlie Tanner

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:13:37 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

McCoy tries to evade pressure while idly wondering whether it was Charlie Tanner who missed the block. Again. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Context

Mired in a slow start against the Cowboys due to pressure on Colt McCoy, some rare inaccurate throws by the starting quarterback, an inconsistent running game, and zone defense by Wyoming, Texas got the ball on their own five yardline after a nice punt by Austin McCoy down into the corner that Jordan Shipley had no chance to return. The previous drive went three-and-out and the drive before that gained new life after a questionable personal foul penalty on Wyoming for roughing the kicker, with the only the first drive featuring sustained movement down the field for the Longhorns, ending in a short field goal.

1st and 10 on Texas 5

The Longhorns go with their pure 11 personnel featuring the Extra Blocking Surface for the first time in the game, as well as DJ Monroe's first appearance on offense since his scintillating performance against the WarHawks. Greg Davis dials up a counter right with Adam Ulatoski and Charlie Tanner pulling. Re-read those two names and the title of the post and you can probably figure out how the play went. First of all, it's a slow-developing play that doesn't take advantage of Monroe's ability to quickly take the edge against a defense that doesn't particularly have the personnel to deal with his speed. Then there's the fact that Tanner and Ulatoski both whiff on their blocks while falling impotently to the ground. Guess which two Wyoming players make the tackle? The mark of a good lineman is the ability to stay upright -- that's not exactly rocket science -- and the left side of the Texas line did a pathetic job of doing that, as neither one is particularly adept at moving in space. No gain for Monroe, through no fault of his own.

2nd and 10 on Texas 5

At this point, a lightbulb undoubtedly went off in the head of Greg Davis. "Wait," he said to himself, "if the left side of the line can't pull, then just run in that direction!" Brilliant. A Wyoming linebacker slices into the backfield to tackle Monroe. Who was supposed to block that player? You guessed it, Charlie Tanner, who takes several steps into the second level, but barely even gets a finger on the opposing player. One yard gain for Monroe, through no fault of his own. Notice a trend?

3rd and 9 on Texas 6

Monroe heads off the field, replaced by Vondrell McGee as Texas stays in 11 personnel. Within about a second of the play starting, Charlie Tanner whiffs on his block on Mitch Unrein, who heads into the backfield to chase down Colt McCoy, who scrambles through the Texas end zone and finds Shipley on a crossing route. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, Wyoming dropped seven men into coverage and all the receivers are well covered downfield. Unfortunately for Texas, the crossing route run by EBS at seemingly half speed or less doesn't draw the attention of all three linebackers and leave Shipley wide open. Five yard gain by Shipley, who got hit hard by two Wyoming players shortly after the catch.

Final Totals

Three plays for six yards, 2:06 expired. One yard on two carries for DJ Monroe. One pass completed by Colt McCoy to Jordan Shipley for five yards. Three missed blocks for Charlie Tanner. Failure rate for Charlie Tanner on the possession: 100%. One missed block for Adam Ulatoski. One useless possession for EBS and one useless and half-assed route run. Percentage chance that McCoy would ever look in EBS's direction to try to complete a pass: zero.

Verdict

Terrible possession by the Longhorns. There are only two explanations for why EBS was on the field for this possession. One, Greg Davis felt that familiar tightening of the sphincter after Woyming put pressure on McCoy on third down the previous possession and wanted to make sure that Texas had a chance to max protect against a possible blitz on third-and-long. McGee stayed in the backfield and helped out Ulatoski, but he should have known that Tanner would need help on the inside. Note the sarcarsm. Wyoming rushed four and almost immediately got pressure on McCoy. Terrible. Four against six, seven if you include EBS, who released after having no one to block. Instant pressure. Terrible. Two, it might have been the scheduled time for EBS to get a possession. What's the secret code name for that personnel grouping? Three-and-out. Terrible.

Back to Charlie Tanner. The Longhorns are a little bit short at guard right now with Michael Huey and Mason Walters out for the game, meaning that everyone's favorite back up is already playing -- David Snow. Next in line is Tray Allen, the former five-star recruit who has looked good in limited action so far this season. As PB mentioned in the react, Tanner is a great kid, blah blah blah. He's not a good football player. Period. The idea behind Texas football, ostensibly, is to put the best players on the field. Charlie Tanner is not one of those players, therefore, he should not be on the field. Period. He almost gave up a safety and could have gotten McCoy injuried on the third-down play. Hmm. When was the last time that Texas gave up a safety? Oh, I remember. Charlie Tanner whiffed on a block in an important moment against Texas Tech. It's time for the Tray Allen era to begin. It's hard to imagine that he could be worse than Tanner.

EBS? Using EBS inside the ten makes sense, but the problem with the Texas running game isn't that it needs an extra blocking surface. The problem is that the left side of the line can barely manage to run block on a consistent basis. The counter play illustrates why EBS doesn't provide much help in the running game if Ultatoski and Tanner can't do their jobs. EBS could be the best blocking tight end in the history of football and it wouldn't make much of a difference if the Whiff Twins end up on the ground while defenders get free shots at a170-pound running back.

Overall, this poessesion perfectly illustrates why Texas struggles at times in the ground game and the result of Greg Davis becoming too conservative when things don't go well on the road. Just an abortion of a possession. And did I mention terrible? The best Texas offense for almost a year now has been one utilizing a flex tight end. The best Texas running game has been going right. Counter plays are probably more successful going left with Snow and Kyle Hix pulling. DJ Monroe is probably best suited for running some option with McCoy, either the zone read or the speed option.

Note: I did not single out this possession just to criticize Charlie Tanner or EBS. When re-watching the game, I simply noticed that this was a horrible possession and then started to analyze why it failed. It's also worth pointing out that Ulatoski is an excellent pass protector and rarely leaves McCoy vulnerable to blinside hits. An anecdote about Ulatoski's mobility? Walking through the Sanchez building several years ago, I passed by an extremely large person with a brace on his left elbow. It was Ulatoski. Just as I realized who it was, he stumbled and nearly fell. The culprit? Simple betrayal by his own feet. So yeah.

Postgame React: Texas 41 Wyoming 10

Peter Bean — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 05:59:35 -0000

More photos » by AAron Ontiveroz - AP

Colt McCoy is surprised to learn that his receivers are not eight feet tall.

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The outcome was: A matter of perspective. Today's game was sort of like being invited as a guest to dine at the restaurant with the three-star Michelin rating and the prettiest view in the city, only when you get there, the waiter botches your appetizer and takes two hours to bring you the main course, and when it finally arrives, it's not the steak that you ordered but some sort of fish. As you walk out the door after your meal, you're about to start complaining to your wife about everything that went wrong, but have to stop, because you realize not only was the entree you ate as tasty as anything you've ever had, but the restaurant next door burned to the ground while you were eating.

"You know what," you have to say, "that was pretty good, wasn't it?"

It sorta depends how you look at it, right? We might look at Texas' first half of offensive mediocrity, the special teams idiocy, and the tight halftime score and conclude, "Bad Texas. Bad, bad Texas." On the other hand, we might look at the second half, the final 31-point margin, and the scoreboard in Stillwater and conclude, "A fine day to be a Longhorn, indeed."

I'm inclined to the latter view for a number of reasons, confident that our special teams are better than that, Colt McCoy is better than that, our defense is straight sexy, and the second half showed some glimpses of what might be ahead for this Texas offense. Join me after the jump for discussion of Texas' 41-10 victory over Wyoming.

The Offensive MVP was: Dan Buckner & Tre' Newton. The sophomore "tight end" finished with 6 catches for 86 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown, while the redshirt freshman tailback scampered for 62 yards on 8 carries (including a 13-yard TD run) and hauled in a reception for 15 yards for good measure. These two, of course, are the fish in our happy metaphor -- not the steak we were expecting in August, but unarguably delectable nonetheless. Let's start with Buckner. It's fair to say Buck won't be a mauling blocker for our running game like Brandon Pettigrew was for Oklahoma State last year, but I've seen enough in two games to feel good about Texas' offense being strong enough to win the Big 12. He's got terrific hands, good body control, unfair height, and a powerful, long stride that make him a terrible match up for linebackers and safeties alike. As Colt grows more comfortable with him, he's going to be a force that elevates our pass and run games alike.

As for Newton, let the debates begin: how much should he play? Everyone was impressed with the redshirt freshman, and rightfully so, but those who bagged on McGee (who left with an ankle injury) are throwing out the baby with the bathwater. McGee finished with 61 yards on 11 carries (5.5 per), caught 2 passes for 9 yards, and picked up the blitz like a champ, freeing Colt to scramble around in the first half, staring at triple-teamed Jordan Shipley for 15 seconds. So no, the case for Newton has nothing to do with the ineffectiveness of a healthy McGee, who's been perfectly solid through two games. The difference is in the fit: Newton comfortably slides through our running lanes from the shotgun more naturally than does McGee. It's not an easy thing to do, which is why a guy as obscenely talented as Jamaal Charles often looked so lost trying to figure out where to go. There's a certain feel required to guesstimating where our zone-blocking ballerinas are going to create a crease and then slipping through it with downhill force. McGee is, in his third year, starting to get good at it; Newton looks like he's been doing it all his life.

If that's right, and not a small sample size anomaly, Newton needs more carries. More downs, period. He hits the LOS well, can catch passes, and picks up the blitz. There's a lot to like here. Even if we still like the steak.

The offensive Offensive LVP was: Charlie Tanner. Sometimes, I wish I'd not included this part of the Postgame React way back when I started it, because it's hard to bag on kids who do so many things right, even if they struggle on Saturdays. And Charlie Tanner does a lot right, by all accounts a true program soldier, terrific teammate, and student athlete. Unfortunately, superior blocking is not on the list. But Mack Brown professes to have turned a corner on his philosophy about all this, so we can just be blunt about it: If it's true that the best guys must play, and that those who don't have a role to play on the team by accepting their diminished roles, then Charlie Tanner should not be a starter. When Michael Huey was healthy, David Snow was a better option at left guard. And after this week's subpar performance, I'm of the mind that Tray Allen -- who showed up to play in the second half -- is the better option, too. We can focus on the quality of the other options, or we can just point out that Charlie Tanner is struggling. Either way, experience as measured in starts made is useless when the starts made are not quality ones. Move Tanner down the depth chart. Starting now.

Update: To be fair to Tanner, I meant to mention in here somewhere that his fellow starting linemen were particularly good, either. Ulatoski still doesn't move his feet well enough to be consistently good and Hall is an underized reacher. The right side of our line was better, but overall this unit has hardly been the asset we're told the "90 combined" starts means that it will be.

The Defensive MVP was: Sam Acho and Lamarr Houston. With a fist bump to the outstanding Keenan Robinson, one of My Guys for 2009, this has to go to Sam Acho and Lamarr Houston, who were just treacherous for Wyoming all day. Acho finished with 6 tackles, 2 tackles-for-loss (1 sack) and 1 fumble recovery and was as big a mismatch as Wyoming faced all day. The difference between Acho and his fellow defensive ends -- all talented and effective in their own right -- is his discipline. Rarely will you see Acho over-eagerly shoot up the field and out of position like you might with Okafor or Kindle; he's a model DE right now.

As for Houston... well, there aren't many bigger fans of the young man than yours truly and this was perhaps his finest game as a defensive tackle for Texas. Wyoming simply had no answer for his quickness, and with tag-teammate Kheeston Randall doing a better and better job all the time of occupying blockers, Houston's being freed to make plays like few inside guys can. I love the kid.

The offensive Defensive LVP was: None. No disrespecting anyone on this unit today, as they were nasty and focused from the start, not the least bit rattled by the offense's pedestrian start. I'd love to see this unit with Christian Scott in there -- Gideon is still solid, but limited -- but even there, given this team's week-to-week talent advantages and manageable schedule, there's a lot to appreciate in #21. What's really fun about this group is that they're so much further along than they were at this time last year, and yet they still might have as much room to grow as did last year's group. Randall is a great player who's just learning how to react, instead of think, out there -- getting better every down. Acho and Kindle are already great, and have guys behind them who will be soon. My man crush on Keenan Robinson swells by the minute. Curtis Brown is putting his athletic quickness to better and better use, Thomas and Williams are All-Conference guys, Gideon is as steady as you can hope for, and Chykie just needs more every-down focus to be as good as anyone out there.

(A nod here to our special teams, which were comically bad. I could literally do nothing but laugh when Gold's punt was blocked for a touchdown. A week after I beamed that we might have the "best special teams in the country," we got this circus. An anomaly, I'm sure, but still hysterically awful.)

On the Milk Carton: Malcolm Williams. I have lots and lots of nice things to say about John Chiles and James Kirkendoll, but what do we make of Malcolm Williams' lack of meaningful production so far? Is it an opportunity thing? A Malcolm thing? A small sample thing? A Greg Davis thing? I'd like to say that part of it is a schematic thing, but you know what, I watched Colt McCoy gobble up single coverage with Limas Sweed in 2006 (12 TDs) and have to believe that's doable at some level still. I'm open to your answers, if you have any. For now, I wait and wonder.

Garrett Gilbert watch: 2-3 for 16 yards. Not much of a factor today, thanks to the sluggish start keeping Colt in the game through most of the 4th quarter. Still, it doesn't take much to see from Gilbert that he may be literally the prototype quarterback for the offense Greg Davis has developed with Colt McCoy and wants to run moving forward. His arm is plenty strong, his accuracy is otherworldly, and his football instincts are natural and well-developed. If he stays healthy, he's going to win and win big.

Texas Tech Fear Factor: 4 out of 10. (5) is the baseline. +1 for Taylor Potts threw for 467 yards and 7 TDs today; -1 for Taylor Potts will be starting his third career game in Austin; -1 for Taylor Potts will be a Texas Tech quarterback in Austin; +1 for Texas' offense being vulnerable in a shootout; -2 for Will Muschamp not letting Texas get in a shootout; +1 for Greg Davis and his offensive line; +1 for Colt McCoy trying to do too much; -1 for Texas vastly superior depth on both sides of the football.

Heading into next week I feel: Demanding. Two games down, two comfortable wins, and two performances with lots to like and a few lingering questions that need resolving for this team to achieve its goals. I'll be the first to hush someone who tries to tell me I should panic, but neither will I deny that the current level of play leaves the team vulnerable to upset.

And that's the thing, really: I'm still extremely excited about this team and its potential, but the difference between the 2009 Longhorns being excellent and Pasadena-bound may well turn on how large or small are this team's margins for error. Last year, the margins for error were very slim; we pretty much had to have Colt McCoy play perfect football or we could be beat. He was nearly perfect, and so was the team. To elevate above and beyond that this year means increasing those margins for error. I'd argue we've seen that so far on the defensive side of the ball, but not yet on offense.

Texas Tech is one such team that can beat the Longhorns on a bad day. We saw it last year and, while it seems less likely to occur in Austin, could happen this year. I'll be watching closely this week to see what Texas brings to the field against Mike Leach, looking for lessons learned from last year and from the first two weeks of the season, in which Texas has been very good, but not yet truly great.

Ten Questions for Texas Football: (4) Impact Breakouts

Peter Bean — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 04:38:32 -0000

Can you believe we're just two days from kickoff? Outstanding.

Less outstanding, I'm on question four of ten, which means I'm either going to zip through much shorter answers or (more likely) this thing's going to be Five Questions for Texas Football. Regardless, on we go.

Previously in 'Ten Questions': (1) The 2009 Narrative, (2) We're Texas, (3) Lessons from 2008.

After the jump: Beets, bourbon, and high impact breakouts.

4. Whose breakout seasons would provide the most team benefit?

Every so often a study is released showing that people with a diet rich in _____ are 20% less likely to develop mesothelioma, and for a while we all go out and consume more oatmeal, or mackerel, or beet juice, or whatever it is, even though we always thought mesothelioma was some disease you could only get from watching Jerry Springer while nursing a craving to sue the pants off of somebody, and though even the stench of beet juice makes us cringe so hard that our blood pressure rockets off the charts and into the arms of Lipitor. It happens all the time, and there will be a new study out before you know it, telling you one more thing you need to do to live forever.

What if it were bourbon?

Now we're talking.

We've spent some time scouting breakout players already, but today's discussion is focused on finding the bourbon: While a breakout season from any Longhorn will be a boon, I've got my eyes on these six guys as players whose breakout seasons would be especially exciting and rewarding. Like being told to drink bourbon every day.

Eddie Jones, DE Everyone's expecting an Orakpo-esque senior season from the quick and powerful Sergio Kindle, there's excitement about what Sam Acho will do in a full-time role, and fans are frothing at the mouth about Alex Okafor's potential. It's enough to make it easy to overlook just how much depth and talent Texas actually enjoyed at DE last season and underrate how important it will be for Jones to start becoming the player fans thought he could become when he signed as a five-star prospect from Kilgore. Fans are rightfully focused on the situation at tackle, but there, too, the value of Jones is relevant: the more opposing defenses are dealing with another army of disruptive talent at defensive end, the less the pressure on the interior linemen. So is Jones ready to break out? He's on at least one of my lists, so I'm hopeful. His play in Lawrence last year led me to believe he's on the cusp.

Michael Huey, RG What does it say about your offensive line when the player many fans are most excited about is back up center/guard David Snow? A lot more than '90 returning starts' ever could. I've grabbed a seat on the Snow bandwagon, too, and wonder whether Charlie Tanner really has what it takes to hold him off. (And if he doesn't, whether the offensive coaches are as committed to the Best Players Will Play philosophy as is Will Muschamp.) But even if Snow's good enough to replace one of the two starting guards, the other must stay, and for my money it's Michael Huey, much more so than Tanner, who has the potential to be a strong contributor this season along the line. Another Kilgore product, Huey is both strong and talented -- enough so that I thought he'd hold the starting job last year when Tanner missed three games injured. He didn't, but entering his third year in the program, I'm hopeful this is the season the execution matches the talent. Texas would benefit tremendously if it is.

Tray Allen, OT/DT Like Eddie Jones, Allen was a five-star prospect out of high school; unlike Jones, he didn't get a redshirt year and has spent his first two seasons on campus underwhelming fans as a backup. Fair enough, but fans at this point need to realign their expectations to focus on team needs: Set aside whatever disappointment you may harbor that Allen's not a dominant starting tackle and just consider how valuable it would be if he does take a step forward this year and provides for the '09 Longhorns (1) strong back up play at LT for Adam Ulatoski and (2) helpful depth as an emergency DT. Setting aside that the team is going to need Allen to have a strong senior season to compete for the Big 12 title in 2010, the need for depth on this year's team is upon us. While Allen may usefully be deployed as an emergency DT -- should it come to that -- the coaches understand that its his development as an offensive tackle that's most crucial.

Fozzy Whittaker -OR- Tre Newton, RB They bring different skill sets to the table, but I don't know that it matters too much whether one or the other has a breakthrough campaign. What does seem apparent, however, is that Texas would benefit enormously from one of them emerging as a complementary threat to Vondrell McGee. This is not, for the record, a knock on McGee, of whom I expect good things. Instead, these two players represent additional value-added to this offense that will be important to lessening the load on Colt McCoy. Maybe Colt goes all super-robot again, completing every single pass and leading the team in rushing, but we'd rather not have to count on that if we don't have to. My personal preference would be to see Whittaker get healthy, stay healthy, and find his groove in live action, but I'm more and more convinced that Newton can provide a different, but similarly valuable, boost from the position.

Malcolm Williams, WR For obvious reasons, I'm not going to name any names at the tight end position, so let me conclude by noting that a big season from Malcolm Williams might be the single most valuable breakthrough to Colt McCoy and the 2009 Texas offense. We all know about his outrageous athleticism and impossibly long gait. What we don't yet know is whether he's ready to spend his junior season being for Colt McCoy what Limas Sweed was during his own junior season. If he is... yeah. Sit down, Big 12.

Huh. Just one defensive player named... Make of that what you will.

Who are your impact breakthrough players for 2009?

Position Switch For Tray Allen?

Peter Bean — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 17:39:21 -0000

The latest rumor making its way around the Longhorns interwebs involves heretofore offensive lineman Tray Allen making the move to... nose tackle? It certainly makes sense in some regards: Texas is thin at the position, Allen is struggling to break through the depth chart on the OL, and the Horns need a big body or two to eat up blockers on the interior of the D-Line. And certainly, if the coaches like what they're seeing from David Snow and Mason Walters more than what they're getting from Allen (a junior this fall), why not? If true, it's a creative gambit that speaks well of the coaches' willingness to try to get the most out of every player on the roster.

The big question would be whether Allen could get low enough to be effective. Allen is listed at 6-5; by comparison, former standout NTs Casey Hampton and Roy Miller are both 6-1. Which is not to say that taller tackles can't get it done, but it's difficult to get low enough to get the drive one needs to be disruptive.

[Update]: Burnt Orange Beat says the initial move happened on Friday ($) and that it is a "trial" move, not necessarily permanent. Also, their sources say that any rumors about grade issues for Ben Alexander and/or Lamarr Houston prompting Allen's move are untrue. --GhostofBigRoy--