SB Nation - Britt Mitchell

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Monday With Mack

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 03:24:49 -0000

With the dearth of information during the off season, any press conference from Mack Brown gets me about as excited as a little kid in a candy store. Not exactly a svelte little kid, either, if you get my drift. Anyway, on to the bullets from Mack's Monday presser ($) (here is the MB-TF transcript):

Ben Alexander would start over Kheeston Randall if the season started today, in part because Alexander improved his conditioning and quickness over the off season, but also because he plays the run better than Randall, who struggles occasionally with his consistency. However, Alexander's lack of overall speed will keep him off the field on passing downs. The only issue with that rotation is that team's going to a no-huddle offense could keep Alexander on the field for as long as they don't substitute. Something to keep on eye on.
Former blue chip tackle Tray Allen has worked inside at guard this spring, as the coaches seek to establish the needed depth at the position. Allen has worked at that position in part because Charlie Tanner has missed several practices this spring with the flu. The move inside by Allen has allowed Britt Mitchell to get reps at right tackle with Kyle Hix out of the lineup. No word on Aundrew McGaskey, as he appears to have lost his position in the rotation to Mitchell, now apparently entrenched at tackle after dabbling in the tight end position.

Speaking of the tight end position, Greg Smith (of f*** no!) and Ahmard Howard are battling to top the depth chart, as Ian Harris continues to suffer from stingers. With his continued problems, any expectations for contributions from Harris during his Longhorn career should be severely tempered. It may not be time to write him off totally, but it's certainly starting to look like that.
Brown is not considering redshirting any players who can contribute, as he has come to believe that they work harder in practice and in the classroom when they have a chance to contribute in games. It's probably time to permanently put to rest any speculation lingering about Garrett Gilbert redshirting.
Even though Gilbert can't practice with the team this spring, he does attend every quarterback position meeting that he can make.
The Texas Relays this weekend will feature Longhorn commits Marquise Goodwin, Chris Whaley, and Adrian White.
Jordan Shipley will handle punt returns, backed up by Curtis Brown, with Shipley and Christian Scott back on kick offs. Malcolm Wililams and Aaron Williams are the back ups. For the first time since Nathan Vasher and Aaron Ross, the Longhorn kick and punt units were explosive with Shipley receiving punts and kicks, but the coaches must manage Shipley's hits throughout the season to keep him healthy. Expect to see the back ups there early and often throughout the non-conference season, as the Longhorns should roll in their first four games, including the game in Austin against Texas Tech.
The running back position has been banged up, with Vondrell McGee the only player healthy throughout the spring and current starter, as Fozzy Whittaker hurt his ankle and Jeremy Hills and Tre' Newton have also dealt with minor dings.
The offensive line is working to be more aggressive, aided by the rare health of Antwan Cobb, the current starter at fullback. Since Brown is talking about the need for physicality in the running game, his comments suggest use of man blocking in an effort to drive defenders off the ball and move the line of scrimmage, notably missing for most of the last two seasons. This offensive line needs a little more nasty in it. Where is the next Kasey Studdard?
Emmanuel Acho will play a big role this season as a situational linebacker and pass rusher, as well as contributing in all phases of the kicking game. The knee injury last season surely kept him from demonstrating his significant talent.
Brown compares the current secondary to the 2005 squad that featured six future and current NFL defensive backs. Right now, Brown says that eight could play with little drop off, guaranteeing fresh legs at the end of pass-heavy Big 12 contests, as well as insurance in case of injuries.
The new FieldTurf will be installed beginning on Monday, so if you have a chance to make it out to the stadium, enjoy the sight of real grass before it's gone.
Conventional scoring returns again for the Spring Game on Sunday (televised by ESPNU). Additionally, the field will be shortened by 10 yards because of construction work making the south end zone bleachers permanent.

In summary, the depth at defensive back and the impressive performances in the spring, particularly by new nickel starter Christian Scott bodes well for a significant improvement in the pass defense. Mack Brown didn't mention it in his presser, but creating turnovers remains a big priority, with the defensive backs needing to display much better ball skills this season.

Running back, tight end, and defensive tackle remain big question marks as the spring winds down. The lack of consistency by Kheeston Randall is disturbing, particularly in ilght of the lack of depth behind Houston, Randall, and Alexander. Unfortunately, neither defensive tackle in the 2009 class is on campus (not including Kyle Kriegel, seem as a long-term project) and probably won't have the size (Howell) or technique (Derek Johnson) to contribute in the fall.

Running back also remains a concern with the injury issues and lack of separation. The first order of business in fall practice will be to determine the starter and the roles played behind the starter.

Tight end also remains a serious problem with DJ Grant's injury limiting his crucial reps. I can only hope and pray that Greg Smith doesn't see the field as much as he did last season -- Grant needs to get healthy and Barrett Matthews needs to come in ready to play.

Recruiting Spotlight: Dominique Jones

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 22:03:39 -0000

With Signing Day rapidly approaching and the great majority of the Longhorns' 2009 class already committed, it's time to look at each individual prospect.

Vitals

Name: Dominique Jones

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Speed: 4.7 forty-yard dash

High School: Kilgore

Rating (Rivals): Three out of five

Strengths

Following in the footsteps of highly-touted defensive end Eddie Jones, Dominique Jones also hails from Kilgore High School. Besides Jones, Kilgore has a strong presence in Austin, with Michael Huey and Britt Mitchel also Kilgore alums. While Jones isn't as highly regarded as some of his former and once again teammates, he does have good explosiveness for his position ($) and accompanying change-of-direction skills, while also demonstrating the ability to stay low and use his leverage to bullrush offensive tackles in passing situations, drawing favorable comparisons to Eddie Jones. When Dominique does manage to stand up his blockers, besides leverage, he does so by using his hands well, indicating that he is not completely unschooled in technique.

Jones was not recruited by the same caliber of schools even as Kyle Kriegel, drawing interest from TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M, deciding to commit just hours ($) after receiving his offer from Texas. Mack Brown also emphasizes recruiting players who grew up as Texas fans and Jones fills that criteria, stating after his commitment that he always wanted to go to Texas. Jones wasn't without accolades in high school, earning district Defensive Lineman of the Year while recording 75 tackles, nine tackles for loss, and five sacks during his junior year. Certainly not the gaudy statistics on display from Kyle Kriegel, but Jones plays at a much more competitive level at Kilgore. In addition to the Lineman of the Year Award, Jones just received the Defensive Player of the Year award for his district after the Bulldogs won their second straight district championship after recording 64 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and three sacks, numbers that were somewhat down from his junior year due to consistent double teams. Besides the double teams, Jones' numbers were impacted by a shoulder injury ($) sustained before the first game that also required surgery after the season.

Weaknesses

Despite being a physical player at the line of scrimmage, Jones does not always display proper technique, with a bad habit of lowering his head, causing him to lose track of the play at times. And, of course, the staple of every review of high school defensive ends (and even some college ends), is his inconsistent use of his hands. Jones also struggles to keep his shoulders square, turning them and allowing himself to be blocked too easily. Once again, and this is becoming redundant, Jones needs to refine his technique at the college level to break into the Texas depth chart. Maybe I should develop an acronym for refining technique. Sheesh.

Like Kriegel, Jones possesses a frame capable of adding a significant amount of weight, critical since Jones, once again like Kriegel, only bench presses 300 pounds coming out of high school. Unlike Kriegel, however, there has been no talk of spinning him down to defensive tackle, perhaps suggesting that Jones doesn't have as much room on his frame to add weight or just has better raw speed.

Verdict

While Jones wasn't highly recruited early in the process, he drew the attention of a variety of schools after committing to Texas, drawing interest ($) from Illinois, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Baylor, and Stanford, among others. True to his word and his long-time Longhorn fandom, Jones rebuffed the advances from other schools and remained committed to Texas.

It's hard to evaluate the differences between Jones and Kriegel, since both are around the same height and weight and possess about the same speed. Jones seems a little more capable of taking on blockers and is more physical, which may indicate that he could compete for time in the defensive end rotation before Kriegel, although both need to add strength. Like Kriegel, Jones will likely redshirt and begin to compete for playing time when Sam Acho and Eddie Jones graduate after the 2010 season. Although helping his cause for early playing time by enrolling in the spring semester, Jones may not be able to participate in spring practice because of his shoulder surgery, which will certainly set back his development on the field and in the weight room.

Dominique Jones highlights are here.

Morning Coffee Is All Over The Place

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:32:14 -0000

It's all because of Muschamp. Well, maybe not all of it. But rest assured that Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston deciding to return for their senior seasons has more to do with Muschamp ($) than any other football factors. Sure, Kindle and Houston will both earn their degrees next fall, with Houston the first of his four siblings to get a college degree, and Kindle wants to graduate to get his T-ring. Additionally, Brian Orakpo passed on his leadership role on the defense to Kindle and Houston and expects them to step up and take over the team next year. Hey, as big as Kindle and Houston are, even they don't want a disappointed Orakop coming around and asking them to explain failure.

In the end, money was an important factor, and Muschamp fits into that equation because he's the one who is going to scheme them to success and the fortune to follow. Here's Muschamp's sales pitch, according to Kindle:

Basically, he just laid out the numbers I can make this year compared to next year. He talked about the schemes for next year, and the possibility for our team to get to the Big 12 championship and the national championship with the players that we have coming back.

In terms of roles, Muschamp says that Kindle will get more work at the defensive end position in the spring because of the lack of depth there. After being unable to participate in offseason workouts last year, Kindle says the "sky is the limit" for what he can accomplish through hard work during the spring and summer leading up to his senior year. For Houston, he will have another year of experience and strength training at defensive tackle, and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him for most of his junior season, expect big things from him as well.

Devon Kennard set back in decision-making process. With former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt leaving for Washington, the promotion of Rocky Seto to defensive coordinator and the hiring of Jethro Franklin as defensive line coach, defensive end Devon Kennard is stepping back from the process to re-evaluate ($), pushing his decision likely back to Signing Day. A commitment to USC seemed imminent in the recent weeks, but if Darrell Scott is any evidence, the new position coach could tilt the scales in favor of the Longhorns. Could, that is, but may not, since Franklin is a long-time friend of Kennard's father, Derek, a former offensive lineman for the Saints. Also in Franklin's favor is his recent experience in the NFL, coaching defensive lineman for the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though he was fired from both jobs.

Of course, family connections played a key role in Scott's eventual commitment to Colorado, so maybe this situation doesn't end up favoring the Longhorns in the end at all. Some Longhorn fans are distressed about Kennard taking his in-home visit from Pete Caroll during the Fiesta Bowl, but Kennard says he recorded the game to watch it later and has seen Texas play and practice already. At least Texas fan are used to bad news leading up to and on Signing Day.

Transfer season is upon us. Despite rumors of an impending transfer, DJ Monroe plans to enroll for the spring semester in attempts to become eligible for football season next year. John Chiles and Mack Brown spoke, with Chiles deciding he wants to stay full-time at quarterback, where he will get all his reps in spring and fall practice. Rumors about Sherrod Harris leaving persisted for the second year in a row because of the logjam at quarterback, but Harris is reportedly staying in the program ($) as well after discussing the situation with his family. Defensively, there isn't as much depth, so the likely transfer candidates are all on the offensive side of the ball, unless you think Ben Wells might want out after getting little playing time, but that seems unlikely, since he and Christian Scott will compete for Blake Gideon's position.

That leaves crowded depth charts at the following positions on offense: Running back, wide receiver, tight end, and guard. There will be eight players competing for the two guard spots next season, although Britt Mitchell was worked some at short-yardage tight end, a position he may continue to work out next year with the graduation of Peter Ullman. Expect one player to leave from that position.

There will be seven scholarship running backs next season, including Antwan Cobb, who's more of a fullback by trade. Mostly likely to leave is Tre' Newton, although he received some buzz from coaches in the workouts leading up to the Fiesta Bowl, perhaps making Jeremy Hills a more likely candidate to transfer. Vondrell McGee didn't play at all in the Fiesta Bowl, so he may be considering his options, since Chris Whaley could cut into his playing time.

Eight scholarship players occupy the tight end position, although movement there is likely. Greg Smith will probably return to working at center or guard, but might continue in a short-yardage tight end role with Britt Mitchell. Ahmard Howard was moved from defensive end after the injuries during fall practice and is a candidate to move back. Trey Graham will probably redshirt, but that could mean that Ian Harris or Josh Marshall decide to move on after finding themselves on the outside looking in. Blaine Irby might not be able to play next year, though, which decreases the pressure on Harris and Marshall to assess their place in the program until after next year.

Wide receiver is the most likely position to see attrition, and soon. There are 11 (!) wide receivers who will be on scholarship next season, a number that seems way too high. Montre Webber and Philip Payne are the two players who have been passed on the depth chart by younger guys and have only seen limited action the last two years playing on the same unit as John Chiles. Neither of them are likely to ever start or find themselves in the rotation for Texas and are probably best served by finding somewhere they can play. The other player on the outside looking in is probably Brock Fitzhenry, who has the speed to enter consideration as a player who might end up being productive, but with Desean Hales competing for playing time at the same position and in the same class, Fitzhenry doesn't look like he will ever play at Texas, making him a possible candidate as well.

All in all, none of the possible defections I mentioned would cripple or even set back the Texas football program, so there is nothing in particular to worry about or obsess over in terms of potential transfers.

Mims update. Stony Point defensive end Tevin Mims will take his official visit to the Texas campus this weekend, where he will likely receive his scholarship offer. All indications are that Mims will probably commit on the spot, but he has not received his offer yet and despite some rumors, has not yet committed.