SB Nation - Brian Orakpo

Roster Stew: Texas Longhorns Defensive Line

Peter Bean — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 03:12:06 -0000

Ruminations on the Texas roster at the midpoint of the 2009 season. First up, the defensive line.

Defensive Ends

Each week when I get to the Defensive MVP section of the Post-Game React, I pause and consider whether I can omit Sergio Kindle, if only for diversity's sake. Each week I include him anyway, and it's never a hard decision. The physical gifts are no secret, but I find myself repeatedly writing about the energy and effort, which are otherworldly, as well. In terms of his future, his elite length, ability to change directions, and straightline speed make him a Top 10 NFL pick, and he's got the frame to add a needed 10 pounds of muscle to his upper body. Needs to work on using his hands to keep blocks off his knees, but that's about it; he's special.

~~Fellow senior~~ Junior Sam Acho has been magnificent in '09 -- a smart, disciplined, and versatile player that gives Muschamp flexibility to strategically mix and match along the line. When he's on the end, he's doing a solid job rushing the passer and a superior job maintaining gaps and assignments; when he moves inside, there's not a quicker front four than Kindle-Houston-Acho-Jones.

Speaking of Eddie Jones, he's healthy and -- like Kindle a year ago -- is enjoying a breakthrough junior season. If he stays healthy, the former five-star prospect will be an All-Conference end for Texas as a senior; he's at 6-3, 260 now and if his shoulder allows it, can comfortably get that up to 275 by the combine. His strength is his, well, strength, and he's regularly abusing hapless tackles.

Freshman freakshow Alex Okafor is the last member of the regular rotation, and he's coming on fast. As if you needed another data point to confirm the great coaching being done on the defensive side, compare Okafor's play against Oklahoma with where he was in the team's opening two games against ULM and Wyoming; he's getting closer. At 6-4, 240 he's only a fraction of what he's going to be physically, but by way of comparison recall Brian Orakpo, who arrived at Texas at around 225 pounds. Okafor's got outrageous length and top-end speed/quickness; as he adds strength and experience, he's going to be a terror.

Looking ahead a year, while Tevin Mims and Dravannti Johnson are nominally in the mix, the big splash is the arrival of 2010 recruit Reggie Wilson and, hopefully, Jackson Jeffcoat. Wilson is perhaps the wilder physical specimen while Jeffcoat (terrific size as well) is as polished a high school end as you'll ever see.

Defensive Tackles

If not for Nebraska's Suh and OU's McCoy, senior Lamarr Houston is First Team All-Big 12. He still might join them as a first round draft pick. He's playing with tremendous passion, quickness, and lateral movement. Has just one sack, but his 5 other tackles for loss result from his consistently excellent ball pursuit and terrific use of his hands to avoid engagement with blocks at the point of attack. His 17 QB Hurries trails only Sergio Kindle (18); no one else on the team has more than 8.

Problems at defensive tackle? What problems? Sophomore Kheeston Randall was the big question mark and he's more than answered the challenge. Though not exactly overflowing with closing speed, Randall has displayed terrific lateral agility and quickness, as well as quality burst at the snap. He's been terrific eating the inside gap and has been a key factor in both Houston and Muckelroy succeeding as they have.

The feel good story of the '09 team has to be the tremendous senior year contributions from Ben Alexander, a guy who clearly busted his ass in the offseason, shed some body fat, and committed himself to being as prepared as he could be to give the team important minutes. Through six games, Alexander's got 17 tackles, including 4 for a loss; if you aren't happy for him, you have no soul.

Finally, sophomore Tyrell Higgins and freshman Calvin Howell have been sprinkled into the rotation. Higgins has a ways to go with his body; Howell won't need his mama around to develop into a quality tackle by next fall. Freshman Derek Johnson is redshirting and working on his strength, but he's got the size to play starting next year.

Ten Thoughts on Texas Football: Week One Notes

Peter Bean — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:41:51 -0000

Ah, sweet football returns. Unfortunately, yours truly got pulled away to a wedding in Bend, Oregon, filled with guests who didn't think an opening weekend wedding much a problem since the Ducks opened their season on Thursday evening. While I managed not to get sucker-punched, I did fall way behind on my football consumption. Time to start getting caught up... your week one thoughts are after the jump.

D.J. Monroe is faster than you.

All our anxiety about Fozzy Whittaker and whether Texas could find a big play threat at tailback? Gone. The anxiety now rests squarely with Fozzy and -- with the promising debut of redshirt freshman D.J. Monroe -- whether by the time he gets healthy there will be a role for him. Setting aside what it means for the depth chart, the most exciting aspect of what Monroe brings to the team is an explosiveness Texas is going to need to run the table this year. Whether they need it in a shootout with one of the Oklahomas or Missouri, or down the road against a top-tier bowl opponent like Florida (look familiar?), Monroe is precisely the kind of offensive weapon the Longhorns need to open up the field, provide big plays, and make defenses think. As good as McCoy has been, just wait and see what he and the offense are capable of with a guy like Monroe in the mix.
Speaking of Monroe, how good might the Texas special teams be this year? D.J. was the highlight on Saturday, but in the return game alone, don't be surprised to see if either Jordan Shipley and/or Aaron Williams run one back for six at some point this season, too. Texas has an All American-caliber punter in John Gold, a nifty niche guy in Justin Tucker, and two proven veterans (Hunter Lawrence and Ryan Bailey) pushing each other on place kicks. Throw in the nasty athleticism the Longhorns deploy on kick coverage, and you might be looking at the nation's best special teams.
Back to the tailbacks: Sophomore Cody Johnson is one of those guys who's easy both to overrate and underrate. On the one hand, his steadiness and inability to lose yards make him a tempting choice for a featured role... if you're trying to win the 1985 Big 10 championship. (The Texas coaching staff flirted with the idea in the spring, but, perhaps fortuitously, Johnson tweaked his hammy and the coaches thought the better of it.) On the other hand, in discussing what Cody is not it's easy to under-appreciate just how much value he adds to the team as a short distance and goal to-go specialist. If it's possible there's one aspect of Tim Tebow's game that actually manages to be underrated, it's in this role; the one time Tebow came up short last season, Ole Miss stunned the Gators to hand them their lone loss on the season.
And finally, what do we make of Vondrell McGee's performance? Obviously, rotten tomatoes on the two fumbles, but outside those two ill-fated carries, the junior accumulated a solid 77 yards on 13 carries (5.9 per), including a nice finisher at the goal line for six. The optimistic take here is that McGee's proven himself fumble-averse in the past and if he needed a reminder of its importance, best to have the slip up against ULM in the season opener. A McGee doubter may have noted Tre Newton's strong fall camp and 28 yards on 4 carries Saturday and begun to wonder whether there's about to be a logjam of competition for featured carries. Whatever your take, all should agree that the competition and increasingly promising looking set of options are good things.
It's an absolute joy to watch Rodderick Muckelroy play football. At Texas, we're treated to scores of outrageously athletic and talented kids, but there's a third dimension to truly special players -- guys who so clearly live and breathe the game -- and Muck's got it in spades. He understands the game, wants to understand the game, drinks it all in, and plays with that unbridled passion that you can't teach. We're lucky to have him.
Because it's our team, and our obsession, we've been hyper-focused on what this Texas defense lacks (proven play at DT, outside Houston), but I think on Saturday we started to see why the strength everywhere else led me to conclude that "it's the defense that gives me the most confidence Texas can run the table." For starters, the talent Texas is fielding at defensive end is simply unfair. Kindle got the preseason press and Sam Acho looks poised to have the breakout season we expected. And then there's Alex Okafor, who I honestly thought might have to go through a year of dealing with outsized expectations from the fanbase before breaking through; after watching him in the spring, fall, and week one, I think he's ahead of where Brian Orakpo was as a true freshman and has a legitimate chance to develop into the #1 overall NFL Draft pick in four years.

At linebacker, the situation is so strong that Jared Norton's ankle injury isn't a major concern. We've already discussed Muck, but both Keenan Robinson (one of My Guys this year) and Emmanuel Acho look more than just ready for big minutes -- they demand them. Hell, even Dustin Earnest is starting to look like he can contribute quality minutes if need be, surprising me much like Georgia fans must have been surprised by the contributions of a one Will Muschamp 20 years ago.

As for the secondary? Its quality won't be catching anyone by surprise, but even today it's worth stepping back to contemplate just how silly the situation really is -- when guys like Deon Beasley can't crack the starting lineup, Ben Wells can't crack the two deep, and someone as supremely talented as Christian Scott better get his act together (on and off the field) if he expects to play. There's simply no room for error, no matter your pedigree: kick ass or sit down.

All told, this is, at the least, a defense whose glaring weakness is a problem fans can confront without panic, and whose upside is the potential to become as good as we've seen on the 40 Acres in the last 25 years.
I've been clamoring all off-season about how disappointed I'd be if Texas brought in Garrett Gilbert to run-run-run-punt away the fourth quarters of games. He's only getting his feet wet and we needn't overly-celebrate his delightful debut, but at least where his performance was an indication that Mack Brown and Greg Davis intend to play the second team offense, I couldn't be more pleased. If the opposition can't stop the second team, it's their problem not ours. Keep it coming, coaches.
We've talked a lot about the competition for playing time in the secondary, but what about the army of talent at wide receiver? And how about Dan Buckner? We'll find out more about how well Texas can slide in and out of the blocking/receiving tight end sets with impunity, but the early returns on Texas' flex-threat are terrific. There aren't many defenses who can stop this offense spread out four wide, especially if the running backs are making defenses pay for selling out on the pass.
I, for one, am glad Texas was far from perfect on Saturday night. No question, they were sufficiently impressive, but one of my worries for this team was that things would come just a little bit too easy in the early going. The Texas Longhorns online presence is a magnifiently rich one, but perhaps even more so than godfathers like Geoff Ketchum at Orangebloods, I'm not sure anyone has devoted more words to analyzing Mack Brown from a big picture perspective than I have. Part of that's five years at this website and three years writing The Eyes of Texas magazines, and part of that's just the fact that I can't control my word counts, but the biggest reason I've hammered out so many words on this topic is that I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about it. None of which is to say I'm the authority on Texas football (you won't find a better post-game breakdown than this guy's, for example), but you won't find many out there who have so systematically analyzed Mack Brown and the Texas program from a big picture perspective during his tenure.

I point all that out to qualify my argument that there was as much value in Saturday's bad moments as good. This should all probably be a post of its own, but for now, at least, the Cliff's Notes: First, I'm glad Colt McCoy threw an interception. One of the keys to Texas' offense improving upon 2008 depends firmly upon Greg Davis not feeling comfortable with the idea that he can just ride Colt McCoy's exceptional talents. To be sure, Texas can be very, very good just riding McCoy's coattails, but to give the team the best chance of running the regular season and, should it do so, maximize its chances of beating a ridiculously great team like Florida, the Texas offense needs to be as well-rounded and explosive as possible. We want to put Colt in a position to bring home the trophy because defenses have to key on more than just him; to the extent that Colt's early mistakes open Davis's eyes to the idea of building a more robust offense, they are a positive.

Second, I'm glad Vondrell McGee fumbled the football. Related to the first point, mistakes like McGee's in non-contests serve a dual purpose -- reinforcing among the players that the details matter, and among the coaches that the competition for playing time must be a season-long evaluation. You perform, you play. Nothing else matters.

Third, I'm glad that the defense allowed 20 points. Because right now, Will Muschamp is either literally or metaphorically out there with his defense, staring at the Jumbotron, out of his mind with rage that he has to see the number 20 beneath the visitors' name. Watching his post-game press conference was both amusing and awe-inspiring; it was literally all Muschamp could do to sit there and answer questions about a game in which his defense had mostly played well. He rushed through his answers, visibly annoyed, and visibly eager to get back in the locker room to get to work.

Fourth, I'm glad that Chykie Brown got smoked. I'm a huge fan of Chykie Brown, I love his go-go-gadget arms, his long strides, and his passion to man up a great receiver. But I'm an even bigger fan of top talent feeling challenged. A healthy Chykie Brown is as important to your defensive game plan against Danario Alexander, Detron Lewis, Dezmon Briscoe, and Dez Bryant as anything else, and this defense will be all the better if he feels as much pressure as everyone else in Texas' ridiculously talented and deep secondary to perform at the highest level possible, week in and week out.

There were other disappointments, but that's more than enough to make the point I want to hit: Mack Brown was right when he said on Saturday night that that was likely "the worst that we'll play all year," but it's important not because of what he said -- standard coachspeak, for the most part -- but because this is a team and coaching staff that seems genuinely focused on, and hungry for, excellence. This is a team and a program hitting its peak precisely because it learned the hard way that showing up with better talent only gets you so far, and that being your best means looking for and studying weaknesses, building on them to achieve your potential.

If all that sounds just a bit too abstract to consider, just remember that my big picture approach has always been an effort to better understand what we see on the field. And while a big part of that is how the players perform, at least as much is determined by Mack Brown and how he prepares them for battle. In that sense, consider me pleased that the team has plenty to work on in the weeks ahead.
Texas fans' eyes are rightly trained on 2009 as The Year to make the run at the BCS Title, but depending on the offensive line and how much Garrett Gilbert develops this year, is there any reason to be any less excited about what's ahead in 2010? The list of important, incredibly talented freshmen and sophomores who look like they're going to start contributing now, and will be even better a year from now, is a long one: Monroe, Newton, C. Johnson, Dan Buckner, Marquise Goodwin, Malcolm Williams, Aaron Williams, Earl Thomas, Alex Okafor, Keenan Robinson, Emmanuel Acho, Blake Gideon, Kheeston Randall, Calvin Howell... We could list others, but just let that sink in for a moment. There's a reason upperclassmen like Deon Beasley weren't cracking the starting line up in August. And don't even get me started on my excitement for a number of these guys. This football program changed on November 23, 2007 and the best of that change is just getting started.

BTBS National Preview, Part Two

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:00:17 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the projected Top 25 in terms of rough BTBS projections. Today we ride those projections to their inevitable conclusion and look at projected standings and bowls. As a reminder, these are strictly what the numbers say, not my own personal opinion--I'm on record saying Missouri's projection is too high. Also, the projections I made through the summer have been updated to incorporate the projected turnover points data I spoke about yesterday. So without further adieu...

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Missouri	6-2	10-3	Holiday
Nebraska	5-3	9-3	Alamo
Kansas	4-4	8-4	Independence
Kansas State	3-5	6-6
Colorado	2-6	5-7
Iowa State	0-8	3-9
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	Fiesta
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Texas Tech	4-4	8-4	Sun
Texas A&M	2-6	5-7
Baylor	1-7	3-9

As I mentioned before, not having a "All-Americans lost" qualifier instead of just "starters lost" helps Missouri out quite a bit, as did the turnover numbers from 2008. I don't think they'll go 10-2, but...well, obviously I wouldn't complain if it happened.
Honestly, I'm thinking a more likely scenario in the South is that OU beats Texas, then OU loses to somebody else and they both end up 11-1. OU's offensive line won't kill them often, but it will bite them once, I think. And honestly, I've seen quite a few people now say that Texas will beat OU because their O-line is better than OU's. But...well, their O-lines won't face off against each other, will they? The Texas D-line is perfectly qualified from a "caliber of recruit" perspective, but until I see somebody doing pretty credible Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller impersonations, then that's a question mark just like OU's offensive line is.
(And as I mentioned yesterday, there is a separation of about 0.01 between OU and Texas right now, so...yeah.)
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #1: I think Baylor will be better than 3-9, but they did benefit a little more than you'd expect from turnovers last year, so we'll see. They might still be a year away from true bowl contention. Then again, if Phil Taylor is what they say he is, that's a bonus the numbers don't account for.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson*	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida State	6-2	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Boston College	5-3	9-3	Champs Sports
Wake Forest	4-4	8-4	Emerald
Maryland	4-4	7-5	EagleBank
N.C. State	3-5	7-5	GMAC
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Miami-FL	5-3	7-6	Meineke Car Care
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Gator
Virginia Tech	5-3	7-5	Music City
Virginia	3-5	5-7
North Carolina	2-6	5-7
Duke	0-8	2-10

Another massive jumble in the ACC, where eight of 12 teams are projected between 3-5 and 5-3. Clemson and Florida State seem to have a slight edge over everybody else, and Clemson wins the tie-breaker.
Projected Disappointment #1: Virginia Tech. They benefitted tremendously from turnovers last year (#1 in the country in Turnover Points Margin), and while I'm pretty sure Frank Beamer teams always end up on the right side of the turnover battle, they should still see a fall of 5-6 points per game. That's enough to drop them into a major dogfight with Miami and Georgia Tech for the division crown.
I'm not sure what the tie-breaker rules are in the ACC, but here's how Miami wins the Coastal--all three teams go 1-1 against each other, while Miami goes 3-0 against the rest of the Coastal (GT and VT both go 2-1). So they earn the right to lose to Clemson in the title game. But I'll say this: I do think Clemson-Miami title game would get a lot more viewers/attendance than the last couple of VT-BC showdowns...so they have that going for them...which is nice.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #2: I think North Carolina will go better than 5-7. I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Rutgers	5-2	9-3	Orange
Cincinnati	4-3	8-4	Papajohns.com
Connecticut	4-3	8-4	International
Pittsburgh	4-3	8-4	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
West Virginia	4-3	8-4	Gator
Louisville	3-4	7-5	Insight
Syracuse	0-7	2-10

Man oh man, I really hope Syracuse knocks off Rutgers, and we have a six-way tie for first (Rutgers is already losing to Louisville, so we can't have the 7-way tie I was aiming for), and all at 8-4, no less.. Nothing entertained me more than when that happened in the SWC in the mid-'90s. As it stands, this should still be a ridiculously fun slap-fight to watch.
Really, all of this seems pretty plausible, though I think some folks would disagree with Louisville doing that well. They're still benefitting from solid 5-year numbers, thanks to the end of the Petrino era, and that probably has them a bit high.
I mentioned a while back that the initial (non-turnover-influenced) numbers had Rutgers going 12-0. I was disappointed to see that projection fall, but they're still a game better than everybody else, I guess.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Penn State	8-0	12-0	Rose
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Iowa	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Illinois	5-3	7-5	Outback
Wisconsin	4-4	8-4	Alamo
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	Insight
Michigan State	3-5	6-6	Texas
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Motor City
Indiana	1-7	4-8
Purdue	1-7	3-9

Penn State is projected to beat Ohio State by 1.1 points...and that's the only game projected within 12 points. They do suffer some pretty scary losses at WR, but their schedule sets up quite nicely for a good run nonetheless.
Would Michigan accept a Motor City Bowl bid? Normally, I would say no, but after last year, they just might.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #3: I think that Michigan State will end up doing pretty well this year, opening the offense up a bit after leaning so heavily on Javon Ringer last year. Not that there's anything wrong with a Texas Bowl showdown against mighty UL-Lafayette or anything, ahem, but I think they'll do better than that.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Southern Miss	7-1	9-4	Armed Forces
Marshall	5-3	7-5	Hawaii
Memphis	4-4	5-7
UAB	4-4	5-7
Central Florida	3-5	5-7
East Carolina	3-5	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Tulsa*	7-1	10-3	Liberty
Houston	7-1	9-3	St. Petersburg
SMU	4-4	7-5	New Orleans
Rice	3-5	5-7
Tulane	1-7	2-10
UTEP	0-8	2-10

This appears to be a 3-team league this year, with Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Houston fighting it out for supremacy.
Because of the mediocrity everywhere else in the league, SMU sneaks into a bowl bid...which I must admit, would be pretty cool.
Projected Disappointment #2: East Carolina. They were heavy on the smoke and mirrors last year, winning the conference despite wholly mediocre stats (after beating WVU and VT, anyway). They're clearly well-coached, and because of that they might always overachieve above the projections, but they're a pretty good candidate for disappointment when all is said and done.
Looks like this might be Mike Price's last year with a West Texas zip code.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	N/A	6-6	Poinsettia
Navy	N/A	6-7
Army	N/A	5-7

Projected Disappointment #3: Notre Dame. Mentioned this yesterday, but projecting Notre Damn is damn impossible right now. A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8.
You mean Navy might actually miss a bowl this year?? That never happens...meanwhile, Army almost sneaks into a bid, but a 10-point loss to Navy ends the dream.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Bowling Green	7-1	7-6	GMAC
Ohio	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Akron	5-3	6-6
Temple	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Kent State	3-5	4-8
Miami-OH	1-7	1-11
Buffalo	0-8	1-11
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan*	7-1	9-4	Motor City
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Toledo	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Ball State	4-4	6-6
Eastern Michigan	3-5	4-8
Western Michigan	3-5	4-8

I realize Akron would probably get a bid over Temple with a better conference record, but I just couldn't resist. There should be rules like "If you haven't been to a bowl in __ years, and you win six games, you're in no matter what."
Projected Disappointment #4: Buffalo. Another smoke-and-mirrors team, Buffalo relied on a heavy 4.5-point advantage in turnovers to win a dead-even division and upset Ball State for the conference title. Turner Gill's too good a coach for them to actually go 1-11, but it would surprise me if they're able to get back to a bowl this year, especially after losing their starting running back.
Projected Disappointment #5: Western Michigan. Most have Central Michigan winning the conference, of course, but it seems like most have Western Michigan as the second-best team. Apparently the numbers disagree.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Armed Forces
Air Force	3-5	5-7
Colorado State	3-5	5-7
New Mexico	3-5	4-8
San Diego State	2-6	5-7
UNLV	2-6	3-9
Wyoming	2-6	3-9

I don't see TCU getting past Clemson in Death Valley, but if they do they could be staring 12-0 in the face. Of course, now that I've said that, watch them lose to Virginia this week.
This is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Mountain West--people will be watching them extra closely this year after all the "let them join the BCS!" talk this offseason, and having only three teams qualify for a bowl (with three more stuck at 5 wins) would damage the perception quite a bit.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #4: I admit it. I'm a complete and total homer. But if Dave Christensen can bring any offensive improvement to the equation, a defense that improved significantly down the stretch last year could at least get them to 4-5 wins instead of three. They have six games projected within seven points and are projected to go 2-4 in those games. Go 4-2, and that's some pretty good first-year improvement right there.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	8-1	10-2	Holiday
California	7-2	10-2	Sun
Oregon State	6-3	9-3	Las Vegas
Arizona	5-4	7-5	Emerald
UCLA	4-5	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	3-6	5-7
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington	1-8	2-10
Washington State	0-9	0-12

Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #5: USC was actually projected to go 11-1 (9-0), but I couldn't help it. I instituted a manual "starting a true freshman QB" penalty. I just don't see them winning in Eugene with a freshman QB who was very INT-prone last year in high school, and a defensive line that potentially can't take much advantage of Oregon's young offensive line.
If Stanford gets anything from their defense, their offense should be able to bear a big load in getting them to a bowl. They have nine games projected within nine points or less, going 4-5 in those nine. They're projected to lose by 0.8 points to UCLA in a "winner is bowl eligible game," so they're certainly close.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Georgia	7-1	10-2	Capital One
Tennessee	4-4	8-4	Outback
South Carolina	2-6	4-8
Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8
Kentucky	1-7	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	7-1	11-2	Sugar
LSU	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Music City
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	0-8	1-11

Projected Disappointment #6: Ole Miss, who in most cases should be perfectly happy with a chance at 9-4--that would mean they've bounced up from the ashes in which they resided during Ed Orgeron's tenure and sustained the bounce--but now 8-4 would be considered a disappointment for a Top 10 team. I definitely think the conventional wisdom is out of whack for the Rebels, who absolutely have a shot at glory with as agreeable a schedule as is possible in the SEC, but getting past both Alabama and LSU is a lot to ask, at home or on the road.
Both Tennessee and Auburn are riding "5-year success" numbers to a projected bounce-back season. I doubt they both bounce back, but I pretty much guarantee at least one will.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is projected to be quite stout this season, but their schedule bites them a bit, and they end up at 8-4...which is still decent improvement.
Poor Mississippi State. It's quite possible that Dan Mullen, their offensive whiz-kid coach they hired from Florida, can whip up some offensive success and make MSU better than expected, but the schedule is just brutal. Only two of their losses (Houston, Middle Tennessee) are projected within less than ten points, meaning anything better than 3-9 will take a pretty hefty upset.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	10-2	Papajohns.com
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	Texas
Florida Atlantic	4-4	5-7
UL-Monroe	4-4	5-7
Florida International	4-4	4-8
Arkansas State	2-6	3-9
North Texas	1-7	1-11
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Tight wins over Memphis (2.6 points), Mississippi State (5.4), Florida Atlantic (1.3), UL-Lafayette (6.3) and UL-Monroe (0.1) drive Middle Tennessee to a lovely projected season, but going 5-0 in games that close is a bit much to ask, I would think.
I'm not sure how this scenario would play out--if, because other conferences struggle to fill their bowl allotments and a better bowl than New Orleans opens up, I would assume the Sun Belt would try to strive for Troy to fill that slot and have their runner-up go to New Orleans instead, but I'm not sure. That's what I did here, with Troy jumping up to PapaJohns.com, while Middle Tennessee fills in in N'awlins.

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Liberty
Nevada	7-1	10-2	New Mexico
Hawaii	5-3	9-4	Hawaii
Fresno State	5-3	6-6	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7
Utah State	4-4	5-7
San Jose State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	2-11
Idaho	0-8	0-12

For what it's worth, I actually do think Utah State could be pretty solid this year. I know you were dying to know that.
Pretty clear who the class of the conference is here, though Boise's projections are interesting for two reasons: 1) they're projected to beat Oregon, and 2) if I'm not mistaken (and I very well could be), if two non-BCS teams go undefeated, the BCS bowls only have to take one unless one is in the title game. Is that right? If so, the lower-ranked of TCU and Boise would be S.O.L., and I'm not sure which team that would be. I had TCU ranked higher, so I went with them, but thanks to their reputation, Boise might actually be ranked higher despite losing head-to-head with TCU last year.

Bowl Projections

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (10-2) vs Toledo (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	Houston (9-3) vs South Florida (8-4)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs SMU (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs Oregon State (9-3)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Notre Dame (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Hawaii (9-4) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/26	Motor City	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Central Michigan (9-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	Pittsburgh (8-4) vs Miami-FL (7-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Wake Forest (8-4) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Ole Miss (8-4) vs Virginia Tech (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Kansas (8-4) vs Auburn (7-5)
12/29	Eagle Bank	ACC #8 vs Army	Maryland (7-5) vs Temple (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Boston College (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Ohio (7-5) vs Fresno State (6-6)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Missouri (10-3)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Michigan State (6-6) vs UL-Lafayette (6-6)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Utah (9-3) vs Southern Miss (9-4)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	California (10-2) vs Texas Tech (8-4)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Northwestern (7-5) vs Lousiville (7-5)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Florida State (8-4) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Tennessee (8-4) vs Illinois (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Georgia (10-2) vs Iowa (10-2)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	West Virginia (8-4) vs Georgia Tech (8-4)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Penn State (12-0) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Connecticut (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (7-5)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Troy (10-2) vs Cincinnati (8-4)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Oklahoma State (10-2) vs LSU (10-2)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Boise State (13-0) vs Tulsa (10-3)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Nebraska (9-3) vs Wisconsin (8-4)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Oklahoma (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Clemson (10-3) vs Rutgers (9-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	N.C. State (7-5) vs Bowling Green (7-6)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Most interesting matchups: Independence, Cotton, Sugar, Gator, and Music City Bowls.
Least interesting: Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, and Texas Bowls.
I would NOT be excited about playing USC in San Diego. Opportunity for greatness, etc., but yikes.
I can pretty much guarantee that the BCS Championship Game won't be this easy to pick. Strange things always happen (2004-05 aside), and needless to say the preseason #1 and #2 teams rarely make the title games in such clean fashion.

Preppy White Guy for Heisman

T.H. — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:31:42 -0000

More photos » AP

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I've never paid much attention to the Heisman trophy, primarily because you never see a UNC player in contention for it, but I've also never seen a devastating takedown of the whole charade in one paragraph. Until Matt Hinton came along, that is:

Not that the anointed trio doesn't deserve their share of adulation, but the total exclusion of other viable candidates only emphasizes again how ga-ga Heisman pundits and voters remain for the classic letterman-jacket type: Seven of the nine winners this decade have been clean-cut white quarterbacks from mega programs, many of them foregone conclusions with halos around their head. In the Detmer/Torretta tradition, milquetoast winners Eric Crouch (who couldn't pass, lost his last game by 26 points and went on to be battered in a national championship rout) and Jason White (who had no knees, lost his last game by 28 points and went on to be battered in a national championship loss) will go down as eternal indictments of the Heisman formula -- especially White, who was voted in over the spectacular Larry Fitzgerald and his scary dreadlocks. Pat White, the only quarterback ever to win four straight bowl games, was never invited to New York, but Brady Quinn, beleaguered punching bag in two straight BCS blowouts, was. God forbid a David Pollack, A.J. Hawk, LaMarr Woodley, Glenn Dorsey or Brian Orakpo ever make their way into the discussion.

The Pat White - Brady Quinn comparison alone is golden. And that's just for people who made the ballot for the damn thing.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:47:15 -0000

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(AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Is this year Pasadena or bust --unless you are College Football News who predicts three loses-- for the Texas Longhorns, because with some erie similarities from the 2005 season to the 2009 season. The Horns are coming a good season, but there was controverisy over the Big XII tie breaker rules the league has that gave Oklahoma the nod over Texas even though the Longhorns won the head to head matchup. During the offseason no changes were made to that rule.

The offense which was amazing last year which was 5th nationally, but was third in the Big XII by averaging just over 42.2 points per game which was .2 more then Missouri. The offense returns eight starters with big losses come from the departures in RB Chris Ogbonnava, WR Quan Cosby,RG Cedric Dockery so the offense should stil be fine. WR Cosby was the team leader with 92 receptions and since Texas just reloads however those receptions will not be that easy to replace.

When looking for replacements to take over Cosby's spot on the field looks to be speedster James Kirkendoll, but also look out for junior Brandon Collins who has been praised by QB Colt McCoy. Both of these receivers are top notch recruits and Collins was a four star from the 2006 class while Kirkendoll was a four star from the 2007 class.

The tight end might be scrapped entirely after injuries have decimated the top few candidates to start, and it is anyones guess if or who Mack Brown will stick at that spot.

Obviously the quarterback situation is great for Texas as they have Heisman Trophy runner-up in Colt McCoy. McCoy did it all for Texas which included a mind boggling 76.7 percent completion percantage as well as averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. Not exactly sure who McCoy can improve off those numbers, or even staying in the 70 percentage.

McCoy is poised to challenge for the Heisman and is most likely to win it in 2009. The reasoning because the Heisman voters are most likely not to vote for a back-to-back winner --even though Tim Tebow did receive the most first place votes last year-- which almost certainly eliminates Bradford; not because of skill but because of voters tendancy. With all the hype surrounding "The Choosen One" and the Gators it will be hard to provide a good enough season where anything less then a BCS title is considered a failure.

When I mean most likely to win it does not constitute as a guarantee, but if Texas wins the Big XII--which means the 'Horns will be in Pasadena for the BCS title game-- and is anywhere close to his 2008 numbers he will be striking the pose in New York.

The only downside to McCoy and the Texas offense is the running game, because Texas did not have a premire back in 2008 and the team was lead in rushing by Colt McCoy with 561 yards and carries with 136 attempts. Getting running yards was not the problem, but Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis strayed from the run and leaned much more on Colt McMoy and the pasing game. The 2009 Longhorns must find a balance and incorrporate the run more, so that the team can be more balanced which could provide for big plays in the passing game.

The offensive line is very experienced with 91 career starts but the line was a much better passing line then a run block offensive line. Which is another reason why the team trended toward more passing plays then running plays. Also, consider that Texas nearly exclusively is in the shot gun formation which can hinder running plays by taking too long to get to the line of scrimmage. The running backs themselves will be used in a roation or situational role with Vondrell McGee the likely starter, then there is Fozzy Whittaker who is the most versitale of the backs, and then Cody Johnson who wll be the short yardage specialist.

Defensively well it is the Big XII which is why conferene stats are more of a tool to use when measuring success then national defensive rankings. The rush defense was amazing which was first in the Big XII by giving up only 83.54 yards per game, and even more impressive was the 3.05 allowed per rush; oh also the 'Horns just happened to be third nationally as well in total rushing yards allowed. There is concern because they lost three key defensive line man to the NFL In DT Roy MIller, DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton, so the rush defense could take a hit.

The pass defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed, which normally would be sound for alarm, however defensive passing yards are misleading when it comes to good teams. Any time Texas was up by 8 or more points the Longhorns were ninth in the Big XII in passing yards.

The Horns have playmakers in the secondaery with Earl Thomas, Aaron Williams, and Chykie Brown then there are a few more who could start for nearly any team in the country, so look for them to make big plays on defense.

The season really comes down to two games that could be a loss and then a third that has the potential to be a loss, and all three are in a row. There is always the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma then the potential trap game at Missouri, and then legitimate threat Oklahoma State which is also on the road.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns Team Capsule

Peter Bean — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:02:25 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Before he hands Will Muschamp the keys to the machine, Mack Brown wants another national title at Texas.

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The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Texas team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece.

When Texas has the ball: Texas returns 8 starters (Lost: RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, RG Cedric Dockery) from an offense a year ago that averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play. The name everyone knows is ~~deserving~~ Heisman ~~winner~~ runner-up Colt McCoy, who led the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards in 2008. He also did a little passing: Following an up-and-down sophomore season, McCoy transformed into a robot last season, setting the single-season NCAA record for completion percentage in a season (76.7%), throwing a school record 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. If there's a legitimate critique of last year's outstanding offense, it would have to be the razor thin margins on which the Longhorns relied; looking forward to this fall, Texas would like to rely less on McCoy being a superhuman by bolstering the running game and finding more big plays.

The running game: Texas wasn't a poor rushing team a year ago, but the rushing attack was inconsistent and prone to disappear, necessitating McCoy's otherworldly performances to keep the engine humming. The offensive line is experienced, if not spectacular, returning four starters (LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Charlie Tanner, C Chris Hall, and RT Kyle Hix) who, combined with RG Michael Huey (3 starts in '08) enter the fall with 90 career starts between them. Both starting tackles are excellent in pass protection, but the question for this line will be their ability to create running room in the rushing offense. To that end, Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis appears committed to introducing more plays under center and more man blocking, but for the offense to truly reach its fullest potential, the unit will need to open holes in the running game when McCoy is in its favored 11-personnel, with McCoy in the shotgun, flanked by a tailback. Like last year, a triumvirate of tailbacks will rotate situationally, with Vondrell McGee the likely nominal starter, Fozzy Whittaker the do-it-all Ogbonnaya role, and Cody Johnson the short yardage specialist.

The passing game: Replacing departed WR Quan Cosby won't exactly be a cinch, but if Texas fails to do so, an impressive number of promising candidates would have to fail. In the spring, the speedy James Kirkendoll (now also having a great fall camp) got the starting nod at the Sub-B wideout position formerly occupied by Cosby, but fans are watching fellow junior Brandon Collins closely as well, particularly after Colt McCoy commented at Big 12 media days that Collins was poised to break out for a tremendous season. Behind those two, a small army of unproven young talents will compete for playing time, among them converted QB John Chiles, as well as the speedy DeSean Hales (RS-Fr), DJ Monroe (RS-Fr) and Marquise Goodwin (True Freshman). Returning to man the flanker position is The Roommate, Jordan Shipley, a 1000-yard receiver in 2008 with 11 touchdowns. On the outside, Texas expects big things from third-year sophomore Malcolm Williams, whose football skills are catching up to his outrageous athletic talent. (Expecting an update on the tight end position? It's cursed, thank you very little; we decline to name names.)

When opponents have the ball: If Texas is on your television screen on January 7th in Pasadena, this unit will be the reason. Don't get us wrong: Colt McCoy deserves all the attention and accolades, but it's the potential of this defensive unit that makes us most confident in Texas' chances to roll through the conference unblemished.

Rush defense: The Longhorns held opponents to a paltry 3.05 yards per rushing attempt last season, but they lose three starters -- DT Roy Miller and DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton -- to the NFL. Texas faces serious questions about the viability of the DT position in particular this fall, with only the exceptional Lamarr Houston returning. Vying for viability alongside him will be the senior situation space eater Ben Alexander, unproven sophomore Kheeston Randall, and recently converted offensive lineman Tray Allen. None of them needs to be spectacular, but at least one needs to prove himself capable of solid, block-eating play for 30-35 snaps a game. The rest of the work can be done by the talented, probably underrated, group of defensive ends and linebackers who will rotate heavily to keep everyone fresh. Everyone knows about Sergio Kindle, but by November, expect ends Eddie Jones and Sam Acho to be names every Big 12 quarterback knows as well. As for the linebackers, Texas has four players we absolutely love ready to lead what will prove to be the best tackling team in the conference: Rod Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Keenan Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho,

Pass defense: Two words come to mind: Un. Fair. The secondary may not prove as statistically dominant as Will Muschamp's 2003 title-winning LSU squad (too much help in run support for that, we suspect), but they'll make just as many big plays, and give top receivers in the conference more than a few forgettable nights. Both Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams look like First Team Big 12-level performers, Chykie Brown's not far behind, and Blake Gideon, Christian Scott, Curtis Brown, and Deon Beasley would comfortably start for at least 9 schools in the conference. This group is damn good.

The schedule: You could call it a two-game schedule (vs OU in Dallas, at Oklahoma State) and wouldn't draw much argument from the gallery. Beyond those two monsters, Texas's next three toughest tests all come at home: Texas Tech, Colorado, and Kansas. A road trip to Missouri on their homecoming might be a potential trap game (sandwiched between the two Oklahomas), but with a new quarterback and a questionable defensive line and secondary, an upset would be truly stunning. As for the non-conference schedule... well... maybe Texas just wanted to welcome home Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's it.

The outlook: Anything short of a 12-0 trip to the Rose Bowl will disappoint Texas fans, and for good reason. The talent cycle hits a peak this year, there's experience, skill talent, depth, and a favorable schedule. And some bitterness, too. Texas rightly felt hosed by the BCS system last season and will approach this season with a sense of focus, urgency, and more than a little hostility. That's a good thing for a program under Mack Brown that struggles when it's comfortable. All eyes on Dallas, then, for one of the biggest regular season football games of the last decade. We predict a Texas win and, two months later, a return trip to Vince Young Stadium West.

Poll

Predict Texas' losses in 2009.

None -- See you in Pasadena.

554 votes

1 -- Oklahoma

35 votes

1 -- Oklahoma State

64 votes

1 -- Other

18 votes

2 -- OU and Oklahoma State

19 votes

2 -- Other

7 votes

3 or more

1 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Big 12’s Twelve Players To Watch In `09: No.5 Sergio Kindle

ccmachine — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 06:25:04 -0000

Kindle Likes Crashing Into Quarterbacks Almost As Much As Apartment Buildings

via img.coxnewsweb.com

If Sergio Kindle is driving a car it’s quite possible that the safest place to be is in the middle of the road. However, when he’s charging hard on the football field you won’t want to be anywhere around him because he’s one of the Big 12’s hardest hitters. A linebacker for most of his career at Texas, the Longhorns are taking advantage of his speed and 6-4/255 frame by putting him on the line as a defensive end.

In 2008 he was a Second Team All-Conference selection. He played in all of UT’s 13 games, starting 11 of them. In those games he recorded 53 tackles (14 for loss), 10 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 fumble recoveries and a forced fumble. His best game in `08 came in the Longhorns loss to Texas Tech. In that game he recorded six tackles, four qb pressures, a sack and a forced fumble.

With the departure of three of the Longhorns four starters on the defensive line, Will Muschamp is counting on Kindle to provide the type of productivity and leadership that will be essential to defensive success in `09. If Kindle struggles at defensive end (a position he played sparingly last season) the pass happy Big 12 offenses will much more difficult to contain than they were with Brian Orakpo and company last year.

Not A Single Aggie Nominated To Media Preseason All-Big 12 Football Team

Beergut — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 11:12:26 -0000

The 2009 Media Preseason All-Big 12 Football Team was announced Friday, and not a single Aggie was voted onto the team. I wish I could take their predicted all-conference team seriously, but the inclusion of several players gives me pause. The most glaring mistake is the inclusion of Brandon Carter of Texas Tech on the offensive line. Do you know who Brandon Carter is? If you were paying any attention to college football at all last season, you know who he is; he was the clown in the make-up wearing a Texas Tech uniform last season. (He was also known for unintentionally mooning a national television audience during the Oklahoma game last season; see video after the jump.) Television cameras loved to focus on him whenever Tech was playing, because he was definitely photogenic. The problem is, this offensive guard who used facepaint and various mohawk hairdos to attract attention to a normally faceless position (and to his credit, succeeded in that endeavor) is not an exceptional player, certainly not one who deserves all-conference recognition. In fact, I would go so far as to say that Carter is lacking as very lacking as a guard; at 6'7, 354 lbs, Carter has prototypical tackle size, but lacks skill and ability, so they moved him inside to offensive guard, where he is just mediocre. The media loves him because of his Dennis Rodmanesque attempts to get their attention, but they are forgetting one important fact: Rodman actually had some talent, and could play his position exceptionally well. Carter is attention-seeking behavior and facepaint masking an ordinary talent.

Brandon Carter's biggest contribution last Fall: Mooning a television audience during the OU game.

The next player nomination I question is that of Sergio Kindle on the defensive line. Kindle was a strongside LB last season who is going to be moved into more of a OLB/DE hybrid position this season, which really means he'll be a DE. While I'm sure putting him on the line will give texas more speed on the edge of their defense, I don't see how this automatically makes him an all-conference selection. Last season, texas had Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton on the edges to occupy blockers, as well as Roy Miller and Aaron Lewis inside; offensive linemen who wanted to block Kindle already had their hands full with Orakpo and Miller, so he was free to roam and make plays. Even if they lined up Kindle on the line next to Melton or opposite Orakpo (which they did often, witness OU highlights here), you are still looking at a situation of people running away from Orakpo and running into Kindle. Kindle won't have that kind of protection this season, and with texas breaking in a new defensive tackle rotation, you can be sure Kindle will get the full attention of opposing linemen now that he is down on the line with his hand on the ground. Kindle looks to be starting at the weakside DE position this season, so he will be facing the opposition's LT on the vast majority of his plays. We'll see how he does getting off blocks against the opposition's best. I think Will Muschamp is a stellar defensive coordinator, and I think he is going to get as much out of Kindle as he possibly can this season, but I think Kindle's stats will still see a drop-off from last season.

The other player nominations that don't make sense to me is the defensive backfield. I understand the nomination of Dominique Franks for one cornerback spot, but the other three nominations (Thomas, Lake, and Stuckey) are all safeties. If the media is going to put together an all-conference team with more than two safeties, how the hell can they exclude Trent Hunter? Earl Thomas would be running second-string if he played at A&M, but the media has predicted he will be an all-conference player. Perrish Cox is good enough to be nominated to the team as a KR, but is so unimpressive as a CB, the media would rather include a third safety? I don't understand that line of thinking.

I also think putting Adam Ulatoski on the team as an OL when you already have a stud at LT in Russell Okung is redundant, but I don't confess to understand the media's logic when picking the offensive line. I think they pick the linemen who receive the most hype (Ulatoski) or make for the best story (Carter) instead of actually evaluating how they play.

Brandon Carter and Adam Ulatoski on the offensive line, Sergio Kindle on the DL, and three safeties in the defensive backfield make it impossible for me to take this list seriously. Hopefully, after the season is over, and the coach's all-conference team is announced, A&M will have performed well enought o have several players recognized on the all-conference team that matters.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

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How much will Texas miss Brian Orakpo?

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Yesterday we took a look at a Texas offense that could be described as anything between "uncertain" and "great." It all basically depends on how well Colt McCoy can duplicate his passing downs success from 2008. On the defense, it all depends on how UT replaces Brian "O-Sack-Po" Orakpo. All of the other pieces are in place, and there are plenty of super-duper, highly-recruited players at the DE position, but as I mentioned yesterday with the offense, how quickly some guys can turn potential into production will dictate whether Texas is playing for a national title in 2009, or just maybe a Big 12 title.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 146.4 (#2)
Success Rate+: 130.7 (#2)
PPP+: 167.7 (#3)

Standard Downs S&P+: 130.6 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+: 145.0 (#4)

Red Zone S&P+: 163.0 (#1)

Q1 S&P+: 162.5 (#2)
Q2 S&P+: 126.3 (#14)
Q3 S&P+: 156.7 (#2)
Q4 S&P+: 108.3 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 129.0 (#5)
2nd Down S&P+: 132.1 (#6)
3rd Down S&P+: 147.7 (#3)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 147.1 (#2)
Rushing SR+: 133.7 (#2)
Rushing PPP+: 169.5 (#3)

Standard Downs: 119.3 (#20)
Passing Downs: 165.4 (#4)

Redzone: 165.8 (#3)

Line Yards+: 124.6 (#10)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 148.9 (#3)
Passing SR+: 128.2 (#4)
Passing PPP+: 174.3 (#4)

Standard Downs: 144.6 (#3)
Passing Downs: 144.0 (#9)

Redzone: 174.5 (#3)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.7% (#5)

Whereas the UT offense saw disproportionate success on Passing Downs compared to Standard Downs, the UT defense was pretty consistently great no matter the down, quarter, or type of play (run/pass).

They ranked in the top five for both SR+ and PPP+ in Rushing, Passing, and overall defense.
They had the #1 red zone defense in the country.
They were Top 10 in both Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate.
Really, there are only two sources of variance: their rushing defense was better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and they were much better in Q1/Q3 than Q2/Q4. Of course, if you had to choose a time to be great, you should choose Q1/Q3--without Q1/Q3 strength, Q4 may not matter.
Looking at all categories, you have to go pretty far to find a weakness. Here's one: they ranked in the nation's bottom ten in Q4 Rushing Success Rate+, Q4 Rushing Line Yards+, and Q4 Rushing S&P+. Of course, they only played four games decided by less than 20 points, so a large majority of Q4 rushes took place with UT's #1 defense off the field.
The Pass Defense rankings are the most impressive considering a) they improved from 29th in 2007 to 3rd in 2008, and b) they did so with two freshmen starting at safety.

Defensive Line

Lamarr Houston brings experience to an otherwise relatively green line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #2 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Lamarr Houston (6'2, 290, Sr.)
DE Eddie Jones (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DE Sam Acho (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DT Kheeston Randall (6'5, 290, So.)
DE Alex Okafor (6'4, 240, Fr.)
DT Ben Alexander (6'0, 310, Sr.)
DE Dravannti Johnson (6'2, 232, RSFr.)
DT Kyle Kriegel (6'5, 265, Fr.)

Sophomore tackle Michael Wilcoxon left the team very recently, which hurts depth a bit. At least, it hurts experience a bit. Chances are, at least one true freshman will break into the rotation behind Lamarr Houston and Kheeston Randall. Kyle Kriegel was in for the spring, but 4-star freshmen Calvin Howell and Derek Johnson should be ready to fight it out for a spot in August. The 'Horns will miss underrated Roy Miller (11 TFL, 28 QB Hurries) at tackle, but Houston (7 TFL, 11 QBH) was solid, and Randall has a nice pedigree. The experience from Houston and Ben Alexander can't hurt either.

Whereas UT was good at DT last year, they were great at DE, thanks in part to Brian Orakpo and his 19 TFL, 11.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and 30 QBH. Seriously, we at RMN really liked Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis--they combined for 21.5 TFL, 13.5 sacks, and 12 QBH. Granted, they forced a really impressive eight fumbles, but still. Orakpo was ridiculously good. Also gone: RB-turned-DE Henry Melton (10 TFL, 4 sacks). That's a lot of sacks and hurries to replace.

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

The components are certainly all here for the 'Horns to have another great D-line--it's just that it's always hard to assume such a thing when you lose somebody as great as Orakpo. The odds are in their favor, though.

Linebackers

Sergio Kindle: too much of a stud to play just one position.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Sergio Kindle (6'4, 255, Sr.)
Roddrick Muckelroy (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Jared Norton (6'3, 237, Sr.)
Keenan Robinson (6'3, 232, So.)
Tariq Allen (6'2, 245, Fr.)
Emmanuel Acho (6'2, 235, So.)

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Secondary

Sadly, Blake Gideon is thus far remembered for the play he didn't make.

2008 Unit Ranking: #4 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Earl Thomas (5'10, 197, So.)
S Blake Gideon (6'1, 200, So.)
CB Chykie Brown (6'1, 187, Jr.)
CB Deon Beasley (5'10, 180, Sr.)
CB Aaron Williams (6'1, 189, So.)
CB Curtis Brown (6'1, 185, Jr.)
S Christian Scott (6'1, 209, So.)
S Nolan Brewster (6'2, 210, So.)

That such a young unit led such an impressive move up the passing rankings (from 29th to 3rd) is rather astounding. With freshman safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon holding down the fort at safety, and a batch of solid (mostly young) corners, UT had the best pass defense in the Big 12, and it's hard to imagine that changing with most of the key cast of characters coming back in 2009. Of course, what is most memorable out the secondary are the two plays they didn't make--Gideon dropping the INT, then Beasley (I think) whiffing on the tackle of Crabtree at the end of the Tech game--but that's unfair since this unit made most of the rest of the plays they needed to make.

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

Special Teams

Google searching for Hunter Lawrence, I also found this pic.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 Net Punting, #72 Punt Returns, #32 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Hunter Lawrence (6'0, 187, Sr.) - 60-for-60 PAT, 10-for-12 FG (long: 46)
P John Gold (6'3, 212, Jr.) - 39.6 Net Avg
KR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 26.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 10.7 Avg, 1 TD

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Summary

If the Texas defensive line can approximate last year's success, then the linebackers and secondary should be more than good enough to keep Texas in the Top 5 of the defensive S&P+ rankings. Six starters return among the back seven, and the backups were highly-touted recruits. It all hinges on line success, however. There is no way to underestimate how disruptive the D-line--particularly Orakpo, Miller, and (when he played DE) Kindle--was, and how integral it was to UT's success. Opposing quarterbacks having almost no time to throw cleanly definitely a green secondary, and while the secondary won't need quite as much help in 2009, they'll still need some. Find a solid rush end to line up opposite Kindle--be it Acho, Jones, Okafor, or whoever--and UT will have a national title-caliber defense.

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Projections on Friday.