SB Nation - Roy Miller

Tuesday Buff Bites - Texas Thinks Colorado's Running Game Will Test Them (Me Laughing)

irish1611 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 03:22:46 -0000

Colorado should provide tuneup for UT run defense | College Sports | Star-Telegram
Apparently Mack Brown thinks the Colorado running game will give the Longhorns their first real test of the season. Well, Mack, if you plan on scoring any points in the first quarter, you won't see much of a running game the rest of the game because the Colorado coaches like to throw the ball 50+ times with Cody Hawkins instead of run the ball, even when they are not that far behind (see Colorado State - 40 attempts and West Virginia - 54 attempts). Yes, Cody Hawkins has averaged 46.5 attempts per game, sixth in the college football. If you would have told me that stat before the beginning of the season, I would have said the Buffs would be 0 - 4. Luckily, we had Wyoming on our schedule. With a 31.5 point spread, I am sorry Mack, but this week won't be your tune up:

Although the Colorado ground game lacks statistical success this season, Texas coaches and players view the Buffaloes as a viable litmus test for the Longhorns’ largely untested run defense. Colorado (1-3, 0-0 in Big 12) builds its offense around a power running game, with three backs — Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott and Demetrius Sumler — sharing the load. No. 2 Texas (4-0, 1-0) ranks second nationally in rushing defense, allowing 47.3 yards per game, but has posted those numbers against teams that run pass-oriented, spread offenses.

CU’s Iltis, Wright ready for Texas | All Things Colorado Sports

Hawkins said reserve wide receiver Anthony Wright (ankle sprain) and starting center Mike Iltis (concussion) will be available for Saturday’s game at No. 2 Texas.

‘Speedy’ recovery - The Longmont Times-Call

Texas leads the Big 12 with 49.5 points a game and is second in yards with 521.2 per. CU is last in scoring defense, allowing 28 points per, and yards allowed, 408.8. The Buffs have produced two plays of 40 yards or more while allowing 11. In its three losses, CU has allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more. CU has allowed 14 touchdowns from scrimmage from distances that average 28 yards.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Mack Brown compliments Cody Hawkins. I think.

Yes, we actually had Cody here at our camp. He came down and spent time with us. I think Major was coaching him at that time when he was a graduate assistant. Cody is a lot like Colt. He is tough, he’s smart, he makes good decisions, and you’re not going to rattle him. Every time he gets knocked down, he jumps up before they get off the field and he is a very good football player. They are throwing the ball more this year than they did last year, and he’s throwing it at a very high rate.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Sports - Big 12: Outlook is bleak for North trio

Colorado is in the deepest trouble of all, with the Dan Hawkins hire looking more like a mistake every day. The Buffaloes are carrying millions in athletic debt, and seem to have lost the ace-in-the-hole boosters who can change things quickly. But don't tell me CU can't afford to buy out Hawkins if he posts a fourth straight losing season. CU can't afford not to make a change. If you struggle to recruit and the fan base has lost hope, it takes two years to recover for every year the wrong hire is kept in place.

Hawk: Cody’s interceptions ‘alarming’ | All Things Colorado Sports

"The interceptions, to me, are obviously the most alarming part," Dan Hawkins said. "They’ve all been sort of different, in different cases. His first year, there was a decent amount that came off batted balls, like our guys dropping ‘em. "I do think he’s been pounded a little bit, so I think he has a tendency to get it out (too quickly). This year, I do think some of it has to do with a couple of things: 1) Is him trying to force the issue a little bit. I think also, most of the time when he throws it to Scotty (McKnight), he doesn’t throw a pick. (Cody) has a pretty good idea of where Scotty is going to be and what he’s going to do. That’s part of the whole mixture in there."

Hawkins Quotes From Tuesday Press Luncheon - CUBuffs.com

Brooks: Riddle Retains Confidence In Goodman - CUBuffs.com
Although weekly competition at all positions is standard procedure at Colorado, chances appear good that Aric Goodman will be the Buffaloes' placekicker on Saturday when they visit No. 2 Texas in their Big 12 Conference opener.

LeGarrette Blount, Tate Forcier, Clemson Tigers, LSU Tigers and the art of the apology - ESPN

Falling back: Darrell Scott (27), Colorado. If the hugely touted recruit's freshman season was a disappointment (448 yards from scrimmage in 11 games), his sophomore season has been closer to a disappearance (106 yards from scrimmage in three games).

Buffs' Crawford a bigger big man - Boulder Daily Camera
CU junior added 18 lbs. of muscle in offseason.

Mack Brown Monday Press Conference

CU football primer: the Texas Longhorns - The Denver Post

Colorado-Texas Preview - Oct. 6, 2009 - NCAA Football - CBSSports.com Live GameCenter

Texas hasn't budged in the Top 25 since the preseason poll was released. If the Longhorns can keep it that way through the rest of the regular season, they would have a good chance of playing for the national championship.

Texas' Lamarr Houston morphs into team leader | Dallas Morning News

Neither defensive tackle nor a vocal leadership role came naturally for Lamarr Houston. Now Houston has progressed well enough that he has turned into this season's version of Roy Miller, easing a major Texas concern. Going into Saturday's game with Colorado, Houston is tied for the team lead in tackles-for-loss with five, while ranking second on the team in quarterback pressures (11) and fumbles recovered (two). "If he stays healthy and continues to play like he has the past couple of weeks, he'll make a lot of money," coach Mack Brown said bluntly. "He'll be in the NFL and be a great player."

As Colorado game approaches, UT on guard against overconfidence

If you're a Longhorns player, it's human nature to glance past Saturday's game against Colorado, given what comes next. Then next, and next, all on the road. The one-victory Buffaloes, whom oddsmakers have established as 311/2-point underdogs, should be the easiest team Texas will face until a Nov. 7 home date against Central Florida.

BTBS National Preview, Part Two

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:00:17 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the projected Top 25 in terms of rough BTBS projections. Today we ride those projections to their inevitable conclusion and look at projected standings and bowls. As a reminder, these are strictly what the numbers say, not my own personal opinion--I'm on record saying Missouri's projection is too high. Also, the projections I made through the summer have been updated to incorporate the projected turnover points data I spoke about yesterday. So without further adieu...

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Missouri	6-2	10-3	Holiday
Nebraska	5-3	9-3	Alamo
Kansas	4-4	8-4	Independence
Kansas State	3-5	6-6
Colorado	2-6	5-7
Iowa State	0-8	3-9
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	Fiesta
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Texas Tech	4-4	8-4	Sun
Texas A&M	2-6	5-7
Baylor	1-7	3-9

As I mentioned before, not having a "All-Americans lost" qualifier instead of just "starters lost" helps Missouri out quite a bit, as did the turnover numbers from 2008. I don't think they'll go 10-2, but...well, obviously I wouldn't complain if it happened.
Honestly, I'm thinking a more likely scenario in the South is that OU beats Texas, then OU loses to somebody else and they both end up 11-1. OU's offensive line won't kill them often, but it will bite them once, I think. And honestly, I've seen quite a few people now say that Texas will beat OU because their O-line is better than OU's. But...well, their O-lines won't face off against each other, will they? The Texas D-line is perfectly qualified from a "caliber of recruit" perspective, but until I see somebody doing pretty credible Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller impersonations, then that's a question mark just like OU's offensive line is.
(And as I mentioned yesterday, there is a separation of about 0.01 between OU and Texas right now, so...yeah.)
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #1: I think Baylor will be better than 3-9, but they did benefit a little more than you'd expect from turnovers last year, so we'll see. They might still be a year away from true bowl contention. Then again, if Phil Taylor is what they say he is, that's a bonus the numbers don't account for.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson*	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida State	6-2	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Boston College	5-3	9-3	Champs Sports
Wake Forest	4-4	8-4	Emerald
Maryland	4-4	7-5	EagleBank
N.C. State	3-5	7-5	GMAC
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Miami-FL	5-3	7-6	Meineke Car Care
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Gator
Virginia Tech	5-3	7-5	Music City
Virginia	3-5	5-7
North Carolina	2-6	5-7
Duke	0-8	2-10

Another massive jumble in the ACC, where eight of 12 teams are projected between 3-5 and 5-3. Clemson and Florida State seem to have a slight edge over everybody else, and Clemson wins the tie-breaker.
Projected Disappointment #1: Virginia Tech. They benefitted tremendously from turnovers last year (#1 in the country in Turnover Points Margin), and while I'm pretty sure Frank Beamer teams always end up on the right side of the turnover battle, they should still see a fall of 5-6 points per game. That's enough to drop them into a major dogfight with Miami and Georgia Tech for the division crown.
I'm not sure what the tie-breaker rules are in the ACC, but here's how Miami wins the Coastal--all three teams go 1-1 against each other, while Miami goes 3-0 against the rest of the Coastal (GT and VT both go 2-1). So they earn the right to lose to Clemson in the title game. But I'll say this: I do think Clemson-Miami title game would get a lot more viewers/attendance than the last couple of VT-BC showdowns...so they have that going for them...which is nice.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #2: I think North Carolina will go better than 5-7. I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Rutgers	5-2	9-3	Orange
Cincinnati	4-3	8-4	Papajohns.com
Connecticut	4-3	8-4	International
Pittsburgh	4-3	8-4	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
West Virginia	4-3	8-4	Gator
Louisville	3-4	7-5	Insight
Syracuse	0-7	2-10

Man oh man, I really hope Syracuse knocks off Rutgers, and we have a six-way tie for first (Rutgers is already losing to Louisville, so we can't have the 7-way tie I was aiming for), and all at 8-4, no less.. Nothing entertained me more than when that happened in the SWC in the mid-'90s. As it stands, this should still be a ridiculously fun slap-fight to watch.
Really, all of this seems pretty plausible, though I think some folks would disagree with Louisville doing that well. They're still benefitting from solid 5-year numbers, thanks to the end of the Petrino era, and that probably has them a bit high.
I mentioned a while back that the initial (non-turnover-influenced) numbers had Rutgers going 12-0. I was disappointed to see that projection fall, but they're still a game better than everybody else, I guess.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Penn State	8-0	12-0	Rose
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Iowa	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Illinois	5-3	7-5	Outback
Wisconsin	4-4	8-4	Alamo
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	Insight
Michigan State	3-5	6-6	Texas
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Motor City
Indiana	1-7	4-8
Purdue	1-7	3-9

Penn State is projected to beat Ohio State by 1.1 points...and that's the only game projected within 12 points. They do suffer some pretty scary losses at WR, but their schedule sets up quite nicely for a good run nonetheless.
Would Michigan accept a Motor City Bowl bid? Normally, I would say no, but after last year, they just might.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #3: I think that Michigan State will end up doing pretty well this year, opening the offense up a bit after leaning so heavily on Javon Ringer last year. Not that there's anything wrong with a Texas Bowl showdown against mighty UL-Lafayette or anything, ahem, but I think they'll do better than that.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Southern Miss	7-1	9-4	Armed Forces
Marshall	5-3	7-5	Hawaii
Memphis	4-4	5-7
UAB	4-4	5-7
Central Florida	3-5	5-7
East Carolina	3-5	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Tulsa*	7-1	10-3	Liberty
Houston	7-1	9-3	St. Petersburg
SMU	4-4	7-5	New Orleans
Rice	3-5	5-7
Tulane	1-7	2-10
UTEP	0-8	2-10

This appears to be a 3-team league this year, with Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Houston fighting it out for supremacy.
Because of the mediocrity everywhere else in the league, SMU sneaks into a bowl bid...which I must admit, would be pretty cool.
Projected Disappointment #2: East Carolina. They were heavy on the smoke and mirrors last year, winning the conference despite wholly mediocre stats (after beating WVU and VT, anyway). They're clearly well-coached, and because of that they might always overachieve above the projections, but they're a pretty good candidate for disappointment when all is said and done.
Looks like this might be Mike Price's last year with a West Texas zip code.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	N/A	6-6	Poinsettia
Navy	N/A	6-7
Army	N/A	5-7

Projected Disappointment #3: Notre Dame. Mentioned this yesterday, but projecting Notre Damn is damn impossible right now. A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8.
You mean Navy might actually miss a bowl this year?? That never happens...meanwhile, Army almost sneaks into a bid, but a 10-point loss to Navy ends the dream.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Bowling Green	7-1	7-6	GMAC
Ohio	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Akron	5-3	6-6
Temple	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Kent State	3-5	4-8
Miami-OH	1-7	1-11
Buffalo	0-8	1-11
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan*	7-1	9-4	Motor City
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Toledo	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Ball State	4-4	6-6
Eastern Michigan	3-5	4-8
Western Michigan	3-5	4-8

I realize Akron would probably get a bid over Temple with a better conference record, but I just couldn't resist. There should be rules like "If you haven't been to a bowl in __ years, and you win six games, you're in no matter what."
Projected Disappointment #4: Buffalo. Another smoke-and-mirrors team, Buffalo relied on a heavy 4.5-point advantage in turnovers to win a dead-even division and upset Ball State for the conference title. Turner Gill's too good a coach for them to actually go 1-11, but it would surprise me if they're able to get back to a bowl this year, especially after losing their starting running back.
Projected Disappointment #5: Western Michigan. Most have Central Michigan winning the conference, of course, but it seems like most have Western Michigan as the second-best team. Apparently the numbers disagree.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Armed Forces
Air Force	3-5	5-7
Colorado State	3-5	5-7
New Mexico	3-5	4-8
San Diego State	2-6	5-7
UNLV	2-6	3-9
Wyoming	2-6	3-9

I don't see TCU getting past Clemson in Death Valley, but if they do they could be staring 12-0 in the face. Of course, now that I've said that, watch them lose to Virginia this week.
This is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Mountain West--people will be watching them extra closely this year after all the "let them join the BCS!" talk this offseason, and having only three teams qualify for a bowl (with three more stuck at 5 wins) would damage the perception quite a bit.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #4: I admit it. I'm a complete and total homer. But if Dave Christensen can bring any offensive improvement to the equation, a defense that improved significantly down the stretch last year could at least get them to 4-5 wins instead of three. They have six games projected within seven points and are projected to go 2-4 in those games. Go 4-2, and that's some pretty good first-year improvement right there.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	8-1	10-2	Holiday
California	7-2	10-2	Sun
Oregon State	6-3	9-3	Las Vegas
Arizona	5-4	7-5	Emerald
UCLA	4-5	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	3-6	5-7
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington	1-8	2-10
Washington State	0-9	0-12

Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #5: USC was actually projected to go 11-1 (9-0), but I couldn't help it. I instituted a manual "starting a true freshman QB" penalty. I just don't see them winning in Eugene with a freshman QB who was very INT-prone last year in high school, and a defensive line that potentially can't take much advantage of Oregon's young offensive line.
If Stanford gets anything from their defense, their offense should be able to bear a big load in getting them to a bowl. They have nine games projected within nine points or less, going 4-5 in those nine. They're projected to lose by 0.8 points to UCLA in a "winner is bowl eligible game," so they're certainly close.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Georgia	7-1	10-2	Capital One
Tennessee	4-4	8-4	Outback
South Carolina	2-6	4-8
Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8
Kentucky	1-7	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	7-1	11-2	Sugar
LSU	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Music City
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	0-8	1-11

Projected Disappointment #6: Ole Miss, who in most cases should be perfectly happy with a chance at 9-4--that would mean they've bounced up from the ashes in which they resided during Ed Orgeron's tenure and sustained the bounce--but now 8-4 would be considered a disappointment for a Top 10 team. I definitely think the conventional wisdom is out of whack for the Rebels, who absolutely have a shot at glory with as agreeable a schedule as is possible in the SEC, but getting past both Alabama and LSU is a lot to ask, at home or on the road.
Both Tennessee and Auburn are riding "5-year success" numbers to a projected bounce-back season. I doubt they both bounce back, but I pretty much guarantee at least one will.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is projected to be quite stout this season, but their schedule bites them a bit, and they end up at 8-4...which is still decent improvement.
Poor Mississippi State. It's quite possible that Dan Mullen, their offensive whiz-kid coach they hired from Florida, can whip up some offensive success and make MSU better than expected, but the schedule is just brutal. Only two of their losses (Houston, Middle Tennessee) are projected within less than ten points, meaning anything better than 3-9 will take a pretty hefty upset.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	10-2	Papajohns.com
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	Texas
Florida Atlantic	4-4	5-7
UL-Monroe	4-4	5-7
Florida International	4-4	4-8
Arkansas State	2-6	3-9
North Texas	1-7	1-11
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Tight wins over Memphis (2.6 points), Mississippi State (5.4), Florida Atlantic (1.3), UL-Lafayette (6.3) and UL-Monroe (0.1) drive Middle Tennessee to a lovely projected season, but going 5-0 in games that close is a bit much to ask, I would think.
I'm not sure how this scenario would play out--if, because other conferences struggle to fill their bowl allotments and a better bowl than New Orleans opens up, I would assume the Sun Belt would try to strive for Troy to fill that slot and have their runner-up go to New Orleans instead, but I'm not sure. That's what I did here, with Troy jumping up to PapaJohns.com, while Middle Tennessee fills in in N'awlins.

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Liberty
Nevada	7-1	10-2	New Mexico
Hawaii	5-3	9-4	Hawaii
Fresno State	5-3	6-6	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7
Utah State	4-4	5-7
San Jose State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	2-11
Idaho	0-8	0-12

For what it's worth, I actually do think Utah State could be pretty solid this year. I know you were dying to know that.
Pretty clear who the class of the conference is here, though Boise's projections are interesting for two reasons: 1) they're projected to beat Oregon, and 2) if I'm not mistaken (and I very well could be), if two non-BCS teams go undefeated, the BCS bowls only have to take one unless one is in the title game. Is that right? If so, the lower-ranked of TCU and Boise would be S.O.L., and I'm not sure which team that would be. I had TCU ranked higher, so I went with them, but thanks to their reputation, Boise might actually be ranked higher despite losing head-to-head with TCU last year.

Bowl Projections

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (10-2) vs Toledo (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	Houston (9-3) vs South Florida (8-4)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs SMU (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs Oregon State (9-3)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Notre Dame (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Hawaii (9-4) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/26	Motor City	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Central Michigan (9-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	Pittsburgh (8-4) vs Miami-FL (7-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Wake Forest (8-4) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Ole Miss (8-4) vs Virginia Tech (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Kansas (8-4) vs Auburn (7-5)
12/29	Eagle Bank	ACC #8 vs Army	Maryland (7-5) vs Temple (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Boston College (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Ohio (7-5) vs Fresno State (6-6)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Missouri (10-3)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Michigan State (6-6) vs UL-Lafayette (6-6)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Utah (9-3) vs Southern Miss (9-4)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	California (10-2) vs Texas Tech (8-4)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Northwestern (7-5) vs Lousiville (7-5)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Florida State (8-4) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Tennessee (8-4) vs Illinois (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Georgia (10-2) vs Iowa (10-2)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	West Virginia (8-4) vs Georgia Tech (8-4)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Penn State (12-0) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Connecticut (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (7-5)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Troy (10-2) vs Cincinnati (8-4)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Oklahoma State (10-2) vs LSU (10-2)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Boise State (13-0) vs Tulsa (10-3)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Nebraska (9-3) vs Wisconsin (8-4)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Oklahoma (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Clemson (10-3) vs Rutgers (9-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	N.C. State (7-5) vs Bowling Green (7-6)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Most interesting matchups: Independence, Cotton, Sugar, Gator, and Music City Bowls.
Least interesting: Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, and Texas Bowls.
I would NOT be excited about playing USC in San Diego. Opportunity for greatness, etc., but yikes.
I can pretty much guarantee that the BCS Championship Game won't be this easy to pick. Strange things always happen (2004-05 aside), and needless to say the preseason #1 and #2 teams rarely make the title games in such clean fashion.

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:47:15 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

(AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Is this year Pasadena or bust --unless you are College Football News who predicts three loses-- for the Texas Longhorns, because with some erie similarities from the 2005 season to the 2009 season. The Horns are coming a good season, but there was controverisy over the Big XII tie breaker rules the league has that gave Oklahoma the nod over Texas even though the Longhorns won the head to head matchup. During the offseason no changes were made to that rule.

The offense which was amazing last year which was 5th nationally, but was third in the Big XII by averaging just over 42.2 points per game which was .2 more then Missouri. The offense returns eight starters with big losses come from the departures in RB Chris Ogbonnava, WR Quan Cosby,RG Cedric Dockery so the offense should stil be fine. WR Cosby was the team leader with 92 receptions and since Texas just reloads however those receptions will not be that easy to replace.

When looking for replacements to take over Cosby's spot on the field looks to be speedster James Kirkendoll, but also look out for junior Brandon Collins who has been praised by QB Colt McCoy. Both of these receivers are top notch recruits and Collins was a four star from the 2006 class while Kirkendoll was a four star from the 2007 class.

The tight end might be scrapped entirely after injuries have decimated the top few candidates to start, and it is anyones guess if or who Mack Brown will stick at that spot.

Obviously the quarterback situation is great for Texas as they have Heisman Trophy runner-up in Colt McCoy. McCoy did it all for Texas which included a mind boggling 76.7 percent completion percantage as well as averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. Not exactly sure who McCoy can improve off those numbers, or even staying in the 70 percentage.

McCoy is poised to challenge for the Heisman and is most likely to win it in 2009. The reasoning because the Heisman voters are most likely not to vote for a back-to-back winner --even though Tim Tebow did receive the most first place votes last year-- which almost certainly eliminates Bradford; not because of skill but because of voters tendancy. With all the hype surrounding "The Choosen One" and the Gators it will be hard to provide a good enough season where anything less then a BCS title is considered a failure.

When I mean most likely to win it does not constitute as a guarantee, but if Texas wins the Big XII--which means the 'Horns will be in Pasadena for the BCS title game-- and is anywhere close to his 2008 numbers he will be striking the pose in New York.

The only downside to McCoy and the Texas offense is the running game, because Texas did not have a premire back in 2008 and the team was lead in rushing by Colt McCoy with 561 yards and carries with 136 attempts. Getting running yards was not the problem, but Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis strayed from the run and leaned much more on Colt McMoy and the pasing game. The 2009 Longhorns must find a balance and incorrporate the run more, so that the team can be more balanced which could provide for big plays in the passing game.

The offensive line is very experienced with 91 career starts but the line was a much better passing line then a run block offensive line. Which is another reason why the team trended toward more passing plays then running plays. Also, consider that Texas nearly exclusively is in the shot gun formation which can hinder running plays by taking too long to get to the line of scrimmage. The running backs themselves will be used in a roation or situational role with Vondrell McGee the likely starter, then there is Fozzy Whittaker who is the most versitale of the backs, and then Cody Johnson who wll be the short yardage specialist.

Defensively well it is the Big XII which is why conferene stats are more of a tool to use when measuring success then national defensive rankings. The rush defense was amazing which was first in the Big XII by giving up only 83.54 yards per game, and even more impressive was the 3.05 allowed per rush; oh also the 'Horns just happened to be third nationally as well in total rushing yards allowed. There is concern because they lost three key defensive line man to the NFL In DT Roy MIller, DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton, so the rush defense could take a hit.

The pass defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed, which normally would be sound for alarm, however defensive passing yards are misleading when it comes to good teams. Any time Texas was up by 8 or more points the Longhorns were ninth in the Big XII in passing yards.

The Horns have playmakers in the secondaery with Earl Thomas, Aaron Williams, and Chykie Brown then there are a few more who could start for nearly any team in the country, so look for them to make big plays on defense.

The season really comes down to two games that could be a loss and then a third that has the potential to be a loss, and all three are in a row. There is always the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma then the potential trap game at Missouri, and then legitimate threat Oklahoma State which is also on the road.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns Team Capsule

Peter Bean — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:02:25 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Before he hands Will Muschamp the keys to the machine, Mack Brown wants another national title at Texas.

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The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Texas team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece.

When Texas has the ball: Texas returns 8 starters (Lost: RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, RG Cedric Dockery) from an offense a year ago that averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play. The name everyone knows is ~~deserving~~ Heisman ~~winner~~ runner-up Colt McCoy, who led the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards in 2008. He also did a little passing: Following an up-and-down sophomore season, McCoy transformed into a robot last season, setting the single-season NCAA record for completion percentage in a season (76.7%), throwing a school record 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. If there's a legitimate critique of last year's outstanding offense, it would have to be the razor thin margins on which the Longhorns relied; looking forward to this fall, Texas would like to rely less on McCoy being a superhuman by bolstering the running game and finding more big plays.

The running game: Texas wasn't a poor rushing team a year ago, but the rushing attack was inconsistent and prone to disappear, necessitating McCoy's otherworldly performances to keep the engine humming. The offensive line is experienced, if not spectacular, returning four starters (LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Charlie Tanner, C Chris Hall, and RT Kyle Hix) who, combined with RG Michael Huey (3 starts in '08) enter the fall with 90 career starts between them. Both starting tackles are excellent in pass protection, but the question for this line will be their ability to create running room in the rushing offense. To that end, Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis appears committed to introducing more plays under center and more man blocking, but for the offense to truly reach its fullest potential, the unit will need to open holes in the running game when McCoy is in its favored 11-personnel, with McCoy in the shotgun, flanked by a tailback. Like last year, a triumvirate of tailbacks will rotate situationally, with Vondrell McGee the likely nominal starter, Fozzy Whittaker the do-it-all Ogbonnaya role, and Cody Johnson the short yardage specialist.

The passing game: Replacing departed WR Quan Cosby won't exactly be a cinch, but if Texas fails to do so, an impressive number of promising candidates would have to fail. In the spring, the speedy James Kirkendoll (now also having a great fall camp) got the starting nod at the Sub-B wideout position formerly occupied by Cosby, but fans are watching fellow junior Brandon Collins closely as well, particularly after Colt McCoy commented at Big 12 media days that Collins was poised to break out for a tremendous season. Behind those two, a small army of unproven young talents will compete for playing time, among them converted QB John Chiles, as well as the speedy DeSean Hales (RS-Fr), DJ Monroe (RS-Fr) and Marquise Goodwin (True Freshman). Returning to man the flanker position is The Roommate, Jordan Shipley, a 1000-yard receiver in 2008 with 11 touchdowns. On the outside, Texas expects big things from third-year sophomore Malcolm Williams, whose football skills are catching up to his outrageous athletic talent. (Expecting an update on the tight end position? It's cursed, thank you very little; we decline to name names.)

When opponents have the ball: If Texas is on your television screen on January 7th in Pasadena, this unit will be the reason. Don't get us wrong: Colt McCoy deserves all the attention and accolades, but it's the potential of this defensive unit that makes us most confident in Texas' chances to roll through the conference unblemished.

Rush defense: The Longhorns held opponents to a paltry 3.05 yards per rushing attempt last season, but they lose three starters -- DT Roy Miller and DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton -- to the NFL. Texas faces serious questions about the viability of the DT position in particular this fall, with only the exceptional Lamarr Houston returning. Vying for viability alongside him will be the senior situation space eater Ben Alexander, unproven sophomore Kheeston Randall, and recently converted offensive lineman Tray Allen. None of them needs to be spectacular, but at least one needs to prove himself capable of solid, block-eating play for 30-35 snaps a game. The rest of the work can be done by the talented, probably underrated, group of defensive ends and linebackers who will rotate heavily to keep everyone fresh. Everyone knows about Sergio Kindle, but by November, expect ends Eddie Jones and Sam Acho to be names every Big 12 quarterback knows as well. As for the linebackers, Texas has four players we absolutely love ready to lead what will prove to be the best tackling team in the conference: Rod Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Keenan Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho,

Pass defense: Two words come to mind: Un. Fair. The secondary may not prove as statistically dominant as Will Muschamp's 2003 title-winning LSU squad (too much help in run support for that, we suspect), but they'll make just as many big plays, and give top receivers in the conference more than a few forgettable nights. Both Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams look like First Team Big 12-level performers, Chykie Brown's not far behind, and Blake Gideon, Christian Scott, Curtis Brown, and Deon Beasley would comfortably start for at least 9 schools in the conference. This group is damn good.

The schedule: You could call it a two-game schedule (vs OU in Dallas, at Oklahoma State) and wouldn't draw much argument from the gallery. Beyond those two monsters, Texas's next three toughest tests all come at home: Texas Tech, Colorado, and Kansas. A road trip to Missouri on their homecoming might be a potential trap game (sandwiched between the two Oklahomas), but with a new quarterback and a questionable defensive line and secondary, an upset would be truly stunning. As for the non-conference schedule... well... maybe Texas just wanted to welcome home Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's it.

The outlook: Anything short of a 12-0 trip to the Rose Bowl will disappoint Texas fans, and for good reason. The talent cycle hits a peak this year, there's experience, skill talent, depth, and a favorable schedule. And some bitterness, too. Texas rightly felt hosed by the BCS system last season and will approach this season with a sense of focus, urgency, and more than a little hostility. That's a good thing for a program under Mack Brown that struggles when it's comfortable. All eyes on Dallas, then, for one of the biggest regular season football games of the last decade. We predict a Texas win and, two months later, a return trip to Vince Young Stadium West.

Poll

Predict Texas' losses in 2009.

None -- See you in Pasadena.

554 votes

1 -- Oklahoma

35 votes

1 -- Oklahoma State

64 votes

1 -- Other

18 votes

2 -- OU and Oklahoma State

19 votes

2 -- Other

7 votes

3 or more

1 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Position Switch For Tray Allen?

Peter Bean — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 17:39:21 -0000

The latest rumor making its way around the Longhorns interwebs involves heretofore offensive lineman Tray Allen making the move to... nose tackle? It certainly makes sense in some regards: Texas is thin at the position, Allen is struggling to break through the depth chart on the OL, and the Horns need a big body or two to eat up blockers on the interior of the D-Line. And certainly, if the coaches like what they're seeing from David Snow and Mason Walters more than what they're getting from Allen (a junior this fall), why not? If true, it's a creative gambit that speaks well of the coaches' willingness to try to get the most out of every player on the roster.

The big question would be whether Allen could get low enough to be effective. Allen is listed at 6-5; by comparison, former standout NTs Casey Hampton and Roy Miller are both 6-1. Which is not to say that taller tackles can't get it done, but it's difficult to get low enough to get the drive one needs to be disruptive.

[Update]: Burnt Orange Beat says the initial move happened on Friday ($) and that it is a "trial" move, not necessarily permanent. Also, their sources say that any rumors about grade issues for Ben Alexander and/or Lamarr Houston prompting Allen's move are untrue. --GhostofBigRoy--

My Guys, 2009

Peter Bean — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:02:40 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Unpredictable: Colt McCoy's Heisman-worthy production in 2008. Predictable: Heisman voters would get it wrong. (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

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One of my favorite pieces to read prior to each MLB season is Joe Sheehan's "My Guys" column, penned before each year to highlight those players Joe is eyeballing for a breakout season, yet who aren't receiving big time hype. Translating that to Texas football, I'm looking for those guys (limit of five) who might surprise a lot of folks with how well they play this year -- those with the highest production-to-hype ratio. Malcolm Williams was one of My Guys last year, but doesn't qualify this year because the hype amongst fans has ratcheted way up.

Before offering My Guys for 2009, a quick review of My Guys from a season ago:

Lamarr Houston had a fine, fine year -- even his off-field mistake wound up something of a positive -- but I probably overestimated his immediate impact a smidge. Moving inside from end to tackle, Houston was an outstanding complement to Roy Miller, but the senior Miller was the DT MVP.

Deon Beasley was something of a goat to many fans last year, as his coverage mistakes were highly visible ones and his lack of run support stood out on a Muschamp-directed team full of tacklers. Still, he was mostly outstanding in pass coverage -- far better than most gave him credit for -- and if he decides the NFL might want to see him do some hitting this year, he's got Tarell Brown upside.

Sam Acho had three sacks and nine quarterback hurries and played well as a back up, but the breakout season came from Melton. Acho is primed to shine this year.

Maclolm Williams was a bit of a disappointment out of the gate, simply because he looked so tentative with the ball in his hands. By the end of the year, he was going up and snagging balls at the highest point, one of the team's best special teams players, a ferocious blocker, and a big play threat who only needed a tight end to help him spring free. The best is yet to come.

Michael Huey was a flat out disappointment. When Charlie Tanner went down to injury in September, I thought Huey would keep the starting spot with excellent play, but he was terribly inconsistent. The strength and skills are there; hopefully in year three the light comes on mentally.

Looking at My Guys from 2008, I might have been a year early across the board. I like all five to have "step forward" years this fall.

Finally, while we're here, how about a 2008 All-Breakout Team. If these guys were Your Guys, I'm looking forward to hearing your picks for this year:

2008 All-Breakout Team

David Snow, C
Henry Melton, DE
Colt McCoy, QB
Chris Ogbonnaya, RB
Aaron Williams, CB
Roy Miller, DT
Rod Muckelroy, LB

My five guys for 2009, after the jump.

MY GUYS, 2009

Chykie Brown, CB -- He's an Aaron Ross clone. Same size, similar skill set and disruptive potential. Not that his talent is much of a secret, but he played hurt throughout most of 2008. If he plays the full season healthy, he's a huge reason Texas gets to Pasadena. Especially in the Big 12, and especially with our question marks on the defensive line, Brown's ability to deal with every team's 1A receiver gives Muschamp breathing room to do all sorts of fun stuff.

Fozzy Whittaker, RB -- I'm bullish on Vondrell McGee, but I tingle a little bit thinking about what Fozzy can do for this team if he stays healthy. In this offense, he could score a half dozen receiving touchdowns out of the backfield, if he earns the coaches' trust to do all the little things a guy like Chris Ogbonnaya did so well. Whittaker could easily be for Texas what Baron Batch was for Texas Tech a year ago.

Keenan Robinson, LB -- Ladies and gentlemen, meet Rod Muckelroy's replacement in 2010. He'll be dandy as a back up in 2009, as well. The kid tackles so soundly, plays sideline to sideline, and understands how to flow to the ball, avoid/shed blocks, and make the play. Not flashy, just great. He's ready.

Aaron Williams, DB -- It's utterly silly that this guy is going to be a true sophomore. It's utterly silly how much talent Texas is fielding in their defensive backfield, period. I've already said nice things about Chykie Brown and Deon Beasley; Williams may have the most upside of the bunch, and we haven't yet mentioned Christian Scott, Blake Gideon, Curtis Brown, or Earl Thomas. The biggest question surrounding Williams is how best to deploy him: Does Muschamp rotate him as the do-it-all nickelback with the exceptional Earl Thomas? Stick him at corner and douse the opposing passing game with piss and vinegar? There's not much Williams can't do, and he's one big reason why this backfield is as good as was Muschamp's 2003 title-winning group at LSU.

DJ Grant, TE -- Texas's offense needs a tight end. Blaine Irby isn't available. And DJ Grant is as good a candidate as Texas has to fill the role. We don't know how his strength will hold up in a blocking role, but he won't be asked to move mountains here -- just be solid. More than anything, we need a guy who can run the seven yard curl, and dart down the seam to keep safeties from cheating.

And now, you: Who are Your Guys for 2009? And most importantly, why?

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

How much will Texas miss Brian Orakpo?

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Yesterday we took a look at a Texas offense that could be described as anything between "uncertain" and "great." It all basically depends on how well Colt McCoy can duplicate his passing downs success from 2008. On the defense, it all depends on how UT replaces Brian "O-Sack-Po" Orakpo. All of the other pieces are in place, and there are plenty of super-duper, highly-recruited players at the DE position, but as I mentioned yesterday with the offense, how quickly some guys can turn potential into production will dictate whether Texas is playing for a national title in 2009, or just maybe a Big 12 title.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 146.4 (#2)
Success Rate+: 130.7 (#2)
PPP+: 167.7 (#3)

Standard Downs S&P+: 130.6 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+: 145.0 (#4)

Red Zone S&P+: 163.0 (#1)

Q1 S&P+: 162.5 (#2)
Q2 S&P+: 126.3 (#14)
Q3 S&P+: 156.7 (#2)
Q4 S&P+: 108.3 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 129.0 (#5)
2nd Down S&P+: 132.1 (#6)
3rd Down S&P+: 147.7 (#3)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 147.1 (#2)
Rushing SR+: 133.7 (#2)
Rushing PPP+: 169.5 (#3)

Standard Downs: 119.3 (#20)
Passing Downs: 165.4 (#4)

Redzone: 165.8 (#3)

Line Yards+: 124.6 (#10)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 148.9 (#3)
Passing SR+: 128.2 (#4)
Passing PPP+: 174.3 (#4)

Standard Downs: 144.6 (#3)
Passing Downs: 144.0 (#9)

Redzone: 174.5 (#3)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.7% (#5)

Whereas the UT offense saw disproportionate success on Passing Downs compared to Standard Downs, the UT defense was pretty consistently great no matter the down, quarter, or type of play (run/pass).

They ranked in the top five for both SR+ and PPP+ in Rushing, Passing, and overall defense.
They had the #1 red zone defense in the country.
They were Top 10 in both Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate.
Really, there are only two sources of variance: their rushing defense was better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and they were much better in Q1/Q3 than Q2/Q4. Of course, if you had to choose a time to be great, you should choose Q1/Q3--without Q1/Q3 strength, Q4 may not matter.
Looking at all categories, you have to go pretty far to find a weakness. Here's one: they ranked in the nation's bottom ten in Q4 Rushing Success Rate+, Q4 Rushing Line Yards+, and Q4 Rushing S&P+. Of course, they only played four games decided by less than 20 points, so a large majority of Q4 rushes took place with UT's #1 defense off the field.
The Pass Defense rankings are the most impressive considering a) they improved from 29th in 2007 to 3rd in 2008, and b) they did so with two freshmen starting at safety.

Defensive Line

Lamarr Houston brings experience to an otherwise relatively green line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #2 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Lamarr Houston (6'2, 290, Sr.)
DE Eddie Jones (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DE Sam Acho (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DT Kheeston Randall (6'5, 290, So.)
DE Alex Okafor (6'4, 240, Fr.)
DT Ben Alexander (6'0, 310, Sr.)
DE Dravannti Johnson (6'2, 232, RSFr.)
DT Kyle Kriegel (6'5, 265, Fr.)

Sophomore tackle Michael Wilcoxon left the team very recently, which hurts depth a bit. At least, it hurts experience a bit. Chances are, at least one true freshman will break into the rotation behind Lamarr Houston and Kheeston Randall. Kyle Kriegel was in for the spring, but 4-star freshmen Calvin Howell and Derek Johnson should be ready to fight it out for a spot in August. The 'Horns will miss underrated Roy Miller (11 TFL, 28 QB Hurries) at tackle, but Houston (7 TFL, 11 QBH) was solid, and Randall has a nice pedigree. The experience from Houston and Ben Alexander can't hurt either.

Whereas UT was good at DT last year, they were great at DE, thanks in part to Brian Orakpo and his 19 TFL, 11.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and 30 QBH. Seriously, we at RMN really liked Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis--they combined for 21.5 TFL, 13.5 sacks, and 12 QBH. Granted, they forced a really impressive eight fumbles, but still. Orakpo was ridiculously good. Also gone: RB-turned-DE Henry Melton (10 TFL, 4 sacks). That's a lot of sacks and hurries to replace.

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

The components are certainly all here for the 'Horns to have another great D-line--it's just that it's always hard to assume such a thing when you lose somebody as great as Orakpo. The odds are in their favor, though.

Linebackers

Sergio Kindle: too much of a stud to play just one position.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Sergio Kindle (6'4, 255, Sr.)
Roddrick Muckelroy (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Jared Norton (6'3, 237, Sr.)
Keenan Robinson (6'3, 232, So.)
Tariq Allen (6'2, 245, Fr.)
Emmanuel Acho (6'2, 235, So.)

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Secondary

Sadly, Blake Gideon is thus far remembered for the play he didn't make.

2008 Unit Ranking: #4 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Earl Thomas (5'10, 197, So.)
S Blake Gideon (6'1, 200, So.)
CB Chykie Brown (6'1, 187, Jr.)
CB Deon Beasley (5'10, 180, Sr.)
CB Aaron Williams (6'1, 189, So.)
CB Curtis Brown (6'1, 185, Jr.)
S Christian Scott (6'1, 209, So.)
S Nolan Brewster (6'2, 210, So.)

That such a young unit led such an impressive move up the passing rankings (from 29th to 3rd) is rather astounding. With freshman safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon holding down the fort at safety, and a batch of solid (mostly young) corners, UT had the best pass defense in the Big 12, and it's hard to imagine that changing with most of the key cast of characters coming back in 2009. Of course, what is most memorable out the secondary are the two plays they didn't make--Gideon dropping the INT, then Beasley (I think) whiffing on the tackle of Crabtree at the end of the Tech game--but that's unfair since this unit made most of the rest of the plays they needed to make.

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

Special Teams

Google searching for Hunter Lawrence, I also found this pic.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 Net Punting, #72 Punt Returns, #32 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Hunter Lawrence (6'0, 187, Sr.) - 60-for-60 PAT, 10-for-12 FG (long: 46)
P John Gold (6'3, 212, Jr.) - 39.6 Net Avg
KR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 26.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 10.7 Avg, 1 TD

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Summary

If the Texas defensive line can approximate last year's success, then the linebackers and secondary should be more than good enough to keep Texas in the Top 5 of the defensive S&P+ rankings. Six starters return among the back seven, and the backups were highly-touted recruits. It all hinges on line success, however. There is no way to underestimate how disruptive the D-line--particularly Orakpo, Miller, and (when he played DE) Kindle--was, and how integral it was to UT's success. Opposing quarterbacks having almost no time to throw cleanly definitely a green secondary, and while the secondary won't need quite as much help in 2009, they'll still need some. Find a solid rush end to line up opposite Kindle--be it Acho, Jones, Okafor, or whoever--and UT will have a national title-caliber defense.

---

Projections on Friday.

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Texas Longhorns

Seth C — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:00:12 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns

The Red Raiders face a daunting task in the third game of the season of going to Austin to face the Longhorns, who no doubt remember 39-33 (how can you not) and are looking to be one of the preseason favorites to play in the BCS championship game.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at the Texas Longhorns.

General Information

Opponent	University of Texas
Nickname	Longhorns
Location	Austin, TX
Enrollment	37,406
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Mack Brown
2008 Record	12-1 (7-1)
Starters Returning/Lost	14/8
Blogs	Burnt Orange Nation Barking Carnival
Links	2009 Spring Roster

Statistics


Statistic	Texas	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	308.31 (7)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	167.46 (41)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	475.77 (9)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	42.38 (5)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	175.02 (2)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	2.00 (65)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	259.38 (104)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	83.54 (3)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	342.92 (51)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	18.77 (18)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	124.21 (59)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	3.62 (1)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	6.92 (19)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	0.15 (49)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Vondrell McGee (88 / 376 yds / 4 TD)
Passing	Colt McCoy (332-433 / 3,859 yds / 34 TD / 8 Int)
Receiving	Jordan Shipley (89 rec. / 1,060 yds / 11 TD)
Tackles	Roddrick Muckelroy (102)
Sacks	Sergio Kindle (10.0)
Interceptions	Earl Thomas (2)

A Few Things

So Good on Offense: I really don't like gushing about opposing programs, but UT looks to be near unstoppable on offense. I know, I'm exaggerating a bit, but the biggest piece to the offensive puzzle is replacing Quan Cosby's 92 catches, but there's obviously plenty of talent on UT's roster to make this happen. Jordan Shipley, Malcolm Williams and a host of other quality receivers return to give Texas lots of options.
Rushing Forward: I've listed McGee as the leading returning rusher, although the leading rusher is actually McCoy, who was almost 200 yards ahead of McGee. Dr. Saturday espouses on the lack of the UT rushing game better than I ever could, and the only think I could add is that with a healthier running game, McCoy could be even that much more effective. It seems silly to have the cream of the recruiting crop go to UT and your best rusher is McCoy. Just doesn't seem "right". You would seem that you would want to limit the number of hits that McCoy takes, mostly because he's so good in the pocket passing the ball to his teammates, and having a more efficient running game that doesn't rely on him seems like it would benefit McCoy tremendously.
D-Line Losses: The Longhorns lose quite a bit of talent and production along their defensive line, including Brian Orakpo (40 tackles / 17.5 TFL / 11.5 sacks), Roy Miller (42 tackles / 10.5 TFL / 5.5 sacks) and Henry Melton (26 tackles / 8.5 TFL / 4 sacks). The good thing for Texas is that they're moving Kindle to DE full-time and Lamarr Houston is a true force along the defensive line.
Looking Out for Sergio: I really have no business commenting on this, but this is more about Kindle as a person and not as a player. If Kindle has some sort of problem, and I know there's no evidence that alcohol was involved in his latest incident, but if he does have a problem, I hope that there's someone on the UT staff that insists/demands/requires that he get professional help. I don't care if no one knows a thing about this, and honestly, no one should. Kindle has too much to lose, both from a human being perspective and from a professional perspective to simply push this under the rug. I know, this is all a bit to sappy, but we're still talking about a 20 or 21 year old guy that's really talented and for whatever reason is still trying to figure it out. I also can't help but think that if UT suspends Kindle, folks could imply that he's done something wrong, although as of right now he's done nothing illegal, but if they do nothing, then the staff might come under criticism for not taking the reins on the issue. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Improving the Pass Defense: I'm thinking that UT finds a little better balance this year and the 104th ranking will improve, although I don't think I'm jumping out on any limbs to write that the general perception is that the rush defense will be worse this year. I'm not sure what the balance is and how successful UT will be stopping the run, but with the infusion of the spread offense, fewer teams are relying on the running game it may be more important to get a rush on the opposing passer and then stopping the run is somewhat of an afterthought.
Improving TO Margin: If you would have asked me, I would have certainly said that Texas would be one of the top turnover forcing teams, but that wasn't the case at all. In fact, the Longhorns only had 6 interceptions for the year, 3 of which were from graduating CB Ryan Palmer, but the defense as a whole did force 10 fumbles. With such a big, talented and hard-hitting defensive front, I would have expected more than 10 gained fumbles for the year and now that most of them have graduated or moved on, I'm thinking that this number might decrease. Because UT doesn't turn the ball over much, I don't know how much of an issue this really is, but I have to think that increasing that turnover margin is going to be a point of emphasis with Will Muschamp this year.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Texas Longhorns?

1

24 votes

2

12 votes

3

40 votes

4

67 votes

5

264 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

Morning Coffee Goes Pro

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:58:46 -0000

Texas Pro Day stocks. The Longhorns held their annual Pro Day for scouts ($) (and Packers GM Ted Thompson) on Wednesday, an important day for players looking to improve on their NFL Combine results (Ryan Palmer) or players who weren't invited to the Combine (Henry Melton).

Stock Rising: Henry Melton. The former Texas running back probably worked his way into the top half of the NFL Draft (fourth or fifth round) with his extremely impressive showing at the Texas Pro Day -- perhaps not the most impressive of the group, as Roy Miller and Brian Orakpo both allayed concerns, but Melton was the player who made himself the most money, running a 4.58 40 at 268 pounds (instead of the normal 225) and posting a 36.5-inch vertical. That raw athleticism, combined with his lack of experience at the defensive end position gives Melton a considerable amount of potential. As HenryJames notes, that 40 time makes Melton faster than the OU safeties.
Stock Rising: Quan Cosby. Though Cosby stuck with 4.57 40 from the Combine, he did perform extremely well in the passing drills, once regaining his feet to make a catch that IT's Ross Lucksinger compared to the David Thomas catch in the Rose Bowl. With his ability to use his body to shield defenders, his amazing hands, and leaping ability, Cosby won't be kept out of the league by his size, but the lack of upside will probably hurt him, as what you see is what you get with the "elderly" Mart product and former minor league baseball player.
Stock Rising: Roy Miller. Height has always been the concerns pro scouts have about Miller, but he did answer the questions he could -- running a 4.8 40 after a 4.98 at the Combine, while still adding 23 pounds since the end of the football season. His strength and first step helped Miller solidified his position in the middle rounds.
Stock Holding: Brian Orakpo. There wasn't much to prove for Rak that he didn't at the NFL Combine, considering his 4.7 40, 11-foot broad jump, and 31 reps at 261 pounds. Orakpo stuck with those numbers, but showed well in position drills and proved the health of his knees, essentially answering all the questions scouts had about him and making him a top-10 lock come April and possibly as high as five, a pick held by the Cleveland Browns, who play a 3-4 defense.
Stock Holding: Chris Ogbonnaya. OG ran a predictably mediocre 4.65 at the Combine and stuck with that number and worked at the positions he played at Texas (wide receiver, running back, and fullback). His versatility may land him a chance at the next level in the role he excelled at during his last season at Texas -- third-down specialist. He's probably a free agent pick up.
Stock Holding: Rashad Bobino. Everyone's least favorite linebacker (at least after Scott Derry and Robert Killebrew left) ran the slow 40 expected of him -- 4.7, but managed to turn in a remarkable 4.18 shuttle time that would have been second-best among linebackers at the NFL Combine. Adding his kamikaze tendencies and slow straight-line speed to his lack of height essentially eliminates him from NFL consideration, which isn't exactly a surprise. I would be greatly surprised if he latched on with a team even as a free agent. But I guess he bled for the program and stuff, so there's that.
Stock Holding: Ryan Palmer. Like Roy Miller, Palmer couldn't answer his biggest question mark -- size. At only 5-8, it doesn't mater much that Palmer ran a 4.53 40, much better than his 4.62 at the Combine, or that he can jump 36.5 inches in the air while standing still -- he's just too small. As the only thing separating him from some serious cash money, Palmer must wake up every morning and curse the cruel fate that dealt him a short deck.
Stock Falling: Aaron Lewis. For a player uninvited to the Combine and on the extreme margins of NFL talent, Aaron Lewis needed a strong performance on Wednesday. Due to hip and hamstring injuries, Lewis wasn't able to run a 40, but completed the shuttle in 4.45 seconds. Lewis will have to get healthy and make a strong impression at tryouts after the draft to make an NFL roster.
Post-college attendees. Texas players who completed their eligibility in the fall weren't the only participants on Wednesday. Former walk-on and track athlete Joe Davis worked out at wide receiver, perhaps giving himself a shot at landing a free agent opportunity with his 6-5 frame , while Eric Hall and former Texas receiver Myron Hardy worked out as well. Last year former Texas quarterback James Brown was pulled from the crowd to throw to the receivers, but this year it was native Texan and former Iowa quarterback Drew Tate and Austin resident Jeff Blake who did the honors.

D-Money names UT the favorite. Forth Worth Dunbar receiver Darius White, aka D-Money, currently has a27 offers from the best programs in the country, but there is one that stands above the rest ($) -- Texas. An Austin trip with his mom and brothers is in store for the spring game, while White says that his mom is advising him to take his time with the process. Considering the statements White made in the fall sounding like he was a lock to commit early, the trip seems to be about establishing a comfort level with the program for his mother, much like Reggie Wilson's trip last week that culminated in news of commitment shortly thereafter. If White's mother gives her stamp of approval at the spring game, White could be the 22nd commitment in the class, as many BONizens believe.

Mack Brown speaks. In his first press conference since before Spring Break, Mack Brown spoke about his team and the work left to be done.

Brown confirmed that DJ Grant did sprain his ankle, but disagreed with trainer Kenny Boyd's assessment that Grant would not participate in the remainder of spring practice, with Brown calling him day-to-day.
After horrible kick coverage last season, Brown says they are working harder on that than they have before.
Fozzy Whittaker is quickly developing a reputation as injury-prone and "tweaked" his ankle during the first part of spring practice.
In other injury notes, early enrollee defensive end Dominique Jones won't practice this spring, but fellow early enrollee Kenny Vaccaro is participating in individual workouts.
The coaches are no longer worried about the weight of 250-pound Cody Johnson, instead focusing on his body fat percentage, with Brown commenting that the staff doesn't want him weak from only eating salads.
Perhaps the most interesting news is that Ben Alexander has lost weight and is playing impressively. Of course, that leads to speculation that Alexander has looked good because Kheeston Randall hasn't, but it would greatly help the defensive tackle rotation if Alexander could have a breakout senior season, particularly against a team like Oklahoma State that runs the ball well.

Matthews down to two. Good news for Longhorn fans on Wednesday, as offensive lineman Jake Matthews told Burnt Orange Beat that he narrowed his list to two schools ($): Texas and Texas A&M. He's planning on visiting both schools soon, though he hasn't scheduled a visit to Texas as he has with the Aggies, with whom he has a higher level of comfort, partly due to his brother's attendance. Seemingly tired of the process, Matthews says that he will likely commit before having a chance to visit OU or USC, who haven't been completely eliminated, it seems.

Matthews will try to make it down to Texas in an effort to develop a higher level of comfort, likely for a practice or the spring game, which will be an extremely important visit. It doesn't seem like recruits have had problems getting comfortable in Austin or with the Texas coaching staff, so expect Texas to close the gap with the Aggies when Matthews does take his visit.

Wilson speaks, articulately. There might not be a Texas recruit in the history of the program with as interesting a story as Haltom defensive end Reggie Wilson. On Tuesday, at a news conference held in his school library, Wilson made the official announcement of his commitment to Texas. Wilson's maturity and perspective have always shown through in his previous interviews, but his new conference and appearance on "The Drive" clearly demonstrated how remarkably articulate he is ($) for a young man. Wilson sounded off on a number of topics during his interview, including the impact his trip to campus made on his family:

When we got on the campus my mom and dad and brother fell in love with the campus. And the things they offer in the business school and me telling my dad I wanted to major in business. Them being a top five business school in the country and all those things. My mom and my brothers were like yeah I think this is the right school for you.

For Wilson and his family, the considerations went beyond the campus or facilities -- older brother Winston wanted to know what would happen if Reggie got injured:

A major concern was that if he gets out of here and he's in Austin and playing football and he gets a season ending injury, what happens to his scholarship? That was basically what our concern was. And we were told 'Look if Reggie commits to us now, we guarantee him four years of academic scholarship. It's there. The athletic scholarship is there and it's going to be there. We are not going to take it from him.' So basically that was the biggest concern. My parents were concerned about that and I was concerned about that. So it was a snap of a finger to give them a commitment because they satisfactorily answered all of the questions we had.

A concern with Wilson talking about moving back to the Ivory Coast after his football career is that he might leave early for the NFL to have money to send back more quickly. Wilson tried to allay those concerns on Tuesday:

Some players decide to go to the NFL but I'm not one of those people who are going to the NFL [early]. I'm going to go the four years to get my degree. That's the plan I have and I'm not going to change it. You all can look forward to me playing four years of football there.

Finally, Wilson gave insight into the way that Texas coaches deal with blue-chip talent, developing personal relations that may last past the recruiting process, even if the player attends another school:

They're great people, I felt comfortable with them - coach Giles, coach Tolly, every one of them. I feel those are people who are going to be there for me regardless of football, football being there or not. And that's what really drew me closer to them.

Coach Tolly was the main one who got my attention. This is one thing coach Tolly told me, this is the main thing that got my attention, 'If you come to the University or if you don't come here I'll always be your biggest fan.' That really touched me to know that he liked me as a person and not just because I was a top recruit in the state of Texas or the nation, but he liked me as an individual.

Wilson will certainly represent the University of Texas in the best possible way and it will be interesting to hear more interviews with him later, though Mack Brown may well indoctrinate him before anything interesting comes out of his mouth while at Texas.

Defensive Line: Long look back, brief look forward

Fooch — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 19:00:11 -0000

Although the pass rush as a whole has been awful at times, the defensive line has gotten a lot of flack in this debate. It's sort of fitting that one area that might need the most improvement is one of the last major units we discuss in these recaps. While the line has struggled, there is some serious talent that could be the foundation for any improvement. Given the implementation of a primarily 3-4 defense since Singletary took over, we can finally get a more structured idea of where to make improvements.

Justin Smith: Smith was signed to a big time contract last spring, so struggles from the weight of the deal might not have been entirely shocking. However, Smith was an absolute beast for the 49ers. He finished with 73 total tackles, 7 sacks, a forced fumble and an interception. The numbers don't jump out at you, but anybody who watched the 49ers this season will point to the impact he made in every single game.

Under Nolan, Smith was bouncing around between six of the seven front-seven positions. When Singletary took over, Smith settled in as a straight defensive end. He was effective in both situations, but playing just one position allowed him to concentrate on the same thing each time, rather than adjusting every single play. That should be a big plus heading into 2009.

Aubrayo Franklin: Franklin reminds me of the proverbial riddle wrapped up in an enigma. His first season with the 49ers was not pretty. He signed a 3-year deal in 2007 for a relatively inexpensive amount but did not contribute much of anything. This past year started in a similar fashion before he really started taking over. The difference, according to Franklin, was no longer having to play in a two-gap technique. As Franklin put it, "The play-calling been to our advantage. There's a change of pace every now and then. I'm not just sitting there in a regular two-gap. [Manusky] gives us a call where we're all moving and taking that bull's eye off our chests."

Franklin is a free agent after this season. Considering he's finally finding his way, that would certainly seem to move his price north. It's been discussed ad nauseum, but getting a big young "nose tackle of the future" is something that should probably be addressed this offseason. Of course, if you think Franklin can consistently perform like he did much of this past season, maybe not?

Ray McDonald: I'll admit it: McDonald is one of those guys for whom I have that irrational fandom. I was convinced he could be that pass rush threat the 49ers lacked. As we all saw this past season, that didn't quite happen. Instead, he's shown a big problem with jumping offsides. Maybe he finds his way in his third year, maybe not. I don't know what to expect, but for now, the 49ers definitely need to bring in some more competition at that end position opposite Smith. I think this offseason will be key for him. He's close to reaching the point of the 49ers deciding to make a permanent move elsewhere. He's definitely in need of a strong camp.

Isaac Sopoaga: Whatever are we gonna do with the big Samoan? As sfgfan mentioned, someone did mention Sopoaga being a bit raw. I actually agree with that assessment. He's been in the league four years, and has never really seemed to find his way. Of course, part of that may be Mike Nolan jerking people around with his 3-4/4-3 hybrid. It's hard for a player to understand his role and develop if he's expected to switch between roles constantly. Justin Smith did it, but he's shown himself to be immensely talented. Sopoaga is certainly talented, but not quite on the level of Smith.

Maybe he's just not suited for the 3-4? It will be interesting to see what his role is in 2009, particular after free agency and the draft. He signed a five year extension prior to last season, so they better figure something out. However, I honestly can't figure out where he belongs in the defense. Any thoughts?

Kentwan Balmer: I think the stat that tells you everything you need to know about Balmer's rookie campaign is this: He finished with 7 total tackles and 5 kick returns. Blamer was often the guy who caught the short kickoffs and he managed to average 9.4 yards a return. Considering he's north of 300 pounds, way to go Kentwan.

But seriously, he's got a year under his belt and the 49ers don't really know what they've got in Balmer. He seems to be more a tall and lanky type of guy (as lanky as one can be at 315 pounds), so he might be a bit too big to fill the nose tackle role. The question is whether he can take up blockers and create space as a defensive end. In the 3-4, the OLBs bring a lot of the pressure and the defensive line clears the way for them. I'd expect Balmer will get a lot of playing time in the preseason. It might not tell us much, but it's better than no playing time at all.

Ronald Fields: Fields is a guy who's really struggled to find his way in four seasons with the 49ers. He gets mixed in as a defensive end and defensive tackle but has never really found a specific role. Scouts Inc. indicated he "looks" more like a nose tackle or 4-3 defensive tackle. Of course, given that he's an unrestricted free agent, the 49ers might be willing to let him walk if he wants too much money. I indicated he'd be gone in my early predictions, but a cheap sticker price could keep him in town. He's 27, which is still relatively young, but it might be worth just stocking up in the draft with even younger guys with more upside.

Due to length, we take our look forward at free agency and the draft after the jump.

Looking Forward
There is a lot of talent in free agency and the draft all along the defensive line. At nose tackle, B.J. Raji is of course the first name that comes to mind for most folks. at the Senior Bowl he had a great week of practice before disappearing in the game. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, but I'd imagine Singletary and Manusky could keep him in line.

Briandean mentioned waiting, but guys like Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton were first round picks who have solidified the nose tackle position for the Patriots and Steelers respectively. Maybe Raji could be that guy for us? Emphasis on maybe. The 49ers could also wait on a guy like Roy Miller from Texas or Myron Pryor from Kentucky. They're a bit closer to 300 pounds and would need to add some weight, but they could be low risk, high reward types.

In terms of free agency, a lot of the defensive linemen mentioned would be more likely to fill an OLB role, we won't be discussing you. A guy like Julius Peppers is a definite option in free agency, but more as an outside linebacker that might occasionally drop down to end. So instead, maybe an Igor Olshansky type? He's a 6-6, 309 pound 26-year old. Those guys don't come along very often. His main problem has been consistency, which is why the Chargers are supposedly not expected to try and re-sign him. If the 49ers could get him at a decent deal, would people be down for something like that?

Oh and no I won't forget big Albert Haynesworth. His people have been working with the Titans on an extension, but until it's signed, he certainly remains an option. To this point he's been primarily 4-3 defensive tackle. So, could he move inside as a nose tackle? I'm not a big Haynesworth fan, but it's more because I'd rather go a bit younger with a pure nose tackle. I'm sure others think differently.

In the end, I think it's safe to predict that nose tackle will be addressed strictly through the draft. Defensive end may be as well, but a guy like Olshansky could be an option (maybe PFT can get that rumor going!).