SB Nation - Jake Ratliff

5 Things // Defensive Players Who Must Improve in 2009

Seth C — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 15:00:12 -0000

Five Things is a handful (i.e., five) of thoughts about a single topic. Hopefully, discussion ensues.

Defensive Players Who Must Improve in 2009

There are a ton of factors that go into a team improving, but I thought that it might be good to take a look at both offensive and defensive players who need to improve their game for Texas Tech to have a successful 2009. This is going to sound more critical than it actually is, but the truth of the matter is that the Red Raiders need these players to step up their games.

Join me after the jump for a look at the defensive players who must improve in 2009.

1: DE/DT, Rajon Henley

Henley was injured for a good chunk of the 2008 season, and as a result, his 2008 season statistics seem very pedestrian. Only 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks and TFL, and this is your starting left defensive end. With Brandon Williams going to the NFL, McKinner Dixon declaring for the NFL Supplemental Draft, the current grade questions surrounding Brandon Sesay and Jake Ratliff graduating, there's a fairly substantial loss (or potential loss) in the ranks of defensive ends. It's strange to me (and I fall into this category) that Texas Tech fans are depending so much on a guy who, admittedly injured, only managed 10 tackles for the entire year.

What Henley does have going for him is a track record prior to 2008. As a junior in 2007, Henley had 45 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 7.5 TFL. That's what Henley is capable of as a full-time starter, and if Texas Tech can get similar production from Henely in 2009, then I think the Red Raiders will be okay at the end position.

2: DT, Chris Perry

For my own safety, I probably shouldn't pick on two defensive linemen, but I had great expectations for Perry, who found his way to Lubbock a little differently. Perry, originally signed with the Miami Hurricanes, decided to transfer to be closer to home and was given a reprieve from the NCAA and was not required to sit out a year due to normal transfer rules. Perry did play last year, relatively speaking. In 2008, Perry registered 7 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 sack. Of course Perry only saw action in 7 games.

Perry is certainly talented, and in fact, he was a Rivals 3 star and Scout 4 star recruit coming out of high school. The talent is there, but the word is that when Perry arrived at Texas Tech he was not quite physically ready for Big 12 play. I'm incredibly hopeful that Perry and strength and conditioning coach Bennie Wylie got to know each other intimately during the 2008 season and during the summer of 2009 and he's ready to burst onto the scene.

3: CB, Brent Nickerson

Nickerson is one of those incredibly frustrating players to watch. I know he has the athletic ability to play cornerback, but there were too many times last year where I felt like he got behind a receiver. I can't say that I'm privy to everything that's going on in Ruffin McNeill's defense meetings, but I have to believe that one of his tenants is not to get beat deep. Granted, part of the problem may be the safety not getting beat deep either, but Nickerson has his responsibility as well.

There may have been a couple of things that were working against Nickerson, the first being that he wasn't the full-time starter at the right corner spot, which initially went to L.A. Reed. Reed was injured, and then somewat back, but never made the impact considering his potential. The big statistic for me is the passes broken up, which was only 2 for the year, for Nickerson. For comparison purposes, Jamar Wall had 11 and Darcel McBath had 7. The numbers play this out, but there just weren't enough times that Nickerson was busting up a play, and that's a big part of playing cornerback.

Right now, Nickerson, along with Taylor Charbonnet and LaRon Moore, are battling for that right cornerback job. There are pluses and minuses with all three of these guys, and then you have the six freshmen defensive backs arriving in Lubbock looking to take someone's job.

4: LB, Bront Bird

I have a feeling that I may catch some flack for this pick, in part because it's tough to look at Bird's numbers from last year and complain very much. Bird was 4th on the team in tackles and 4th on the team in tackles for a loss. The biggest problem I have with Bird is that there were games where he would absolutely disappear (1 tackle vs. TAMU; 0 tackles vs. Texas; 2 tackles vs. Baylor). Granted, much of this can be attributed to match-up problems, i.e., Bird may not be quick enough to cover certain opponents due to match-up, and that's at the heart of the problem for me. Bird, while wonderful at certain things, has almost gotten to the point due to the increase in size where he's not able to be as versatile as I had hoped, especially because he was a safety coming out of high school. This may be a pipe dream, but the one thing that I'd love to see change on this defense is more speed at the linebacker position. I have a feeling that McNeill is headed that way and as mentioned above, it's hard to complain with the production of the three starters, Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams and Bird, but with the evolution of spread offenses in the Big 12, the more speed that you can have on the field, no matter position, I think the better you are. In fact, if you take a look at the linebackers from the 2009 recruiting class, the two commitments at linebacker that are in Lubbock are Dion Chidozie and Brandon Mahoney, both guys that can fly up and down the sidelines. I'm afraid that because of Bird's increase in size, he is a step slow to be useful in pass coverage and as more teams pass, especially in the spread offense, that's his fate.

5: DE/DT, Brandon Sesay

I hesitated putting Sesay's name here, but there's not doubt that he belongs here. There was a ton of hype following Brandon Sesay from junior college and whether this is a case of Sesay adjusting to a major college conference level or play, or adjusting to a new position, defensive tackle, but 8 tackles and 1 sack for the entire year just isn't going to cut it. Sesay is an absolute physical specimen at 6-6/278 and I think that McNeill made the right call last year, moving Sesay to defensive tackle, especially considering the overall depth at the defensive end position last year (Brandon Williams, McKinner Dixon, Jake Ratliff, etc.). But this year is a bit of a different story. With defections, graduations, and dismissals, Sesay becomes an integral part that defensive end rotation.

This spring, Sesay wasn't at spring practices, he was in the classroom working on his school work. If we can assume anything about Leach, it's that he will give you plenty of opportunity to get your grades up and if a guy is off the team, Leach won't hesitate to announce the move and go forward. Sesay did play in the spring game and finished the day with 3 tackles and 2 sakcs. I get the feeling that Leach wanted to keep Sesay motivated.

With that being said, Leach hasn't made any announcement, and I think it's safe to say that so long as Sesay working on his issues, then he'll be dressed and ready to play in 2009. There's no doubt that with Sesay's attributes, he's got visisions of NFL contracts dancing in his head, and he should. He's that type of talented, but the only way to prove to NFL draft folks that you're worthy of a pick (8 tackles and 1 sack will not do it), then be the guy this year. There's going to be opportunity to play and it's up to Sesay to prove it.

Previewing Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss: Defensive Line

Seth C — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 18:00:08 -0000

DEFENSIVE LINE

Player	Ht/Wt	Class	Position	Tackles	TFL	Sacks
Brandon Williams	6'5"/246	Jr.	DE	21	12.5	11
Jake Ratliff	6'7"/255	Sr.	DE	11	1.5	.5
McKinner Dixon	6'3"/250	Jr.	DE	30	9.5	7
Brandon Sesay	6'6"/278	Jr.	DT/DE	8	.5	0
Colby Whitlock	6'2"/281	So.	DT	35	5	1
Rajon Henley	6'3"/266	Jr.	DT	8	1.5	1.5
Richard Jones	6'1"/272	Jr.	DT	21	0	0
Marcus Tillman	6'4"/260	Jr.	DE	27	6.5	1.5
Kentrell Lockett	6'5"/240	So.	DE	35	11	2.5
Ted Laurent	6'0"/303	S0.	NT	23	7	1
Peria Jerry	6'2"/290	Sr.	DT	47	17	6
Greg Hardy	6'4"/265	Jr.	DT	17	9.5	8.5
Lawon Scott	6'3"/322	So.	DT	19	2.5	2
Jerrell Powe	6'2"/290	Sr.	NT	7	3.5	1.5
Emmanuel Stephens	6'3"/235	Jr.	DE	18	5.5	1

Texas Tech

McKinner Dixon says "face".

Perhaps the most impressive improvement of the defense was the play of the maturation of the defensive line. Texas Tech went from 82nd in the nation, allowing 177.00 yards a game in 2007 to allowing 133.50 yards a game, good for 45th in the nation. It was a combination of new players as well as other players that just grew up a bit.

Starting with the ends, the arrival of McKinner Dixon gave Texas Tech two quality ends, who could rush the passer, the other standout being Brandon Williams. Rather than have just be a one-trick-pony with just one end that could be double-teamed, the arrival of Dixon signaled an end to focusing on just one side of the line. Dixon's arrival also meant that Texas Tech went from 26 sacks a game, 46th in the nation, to 30 sacks in 2008, good for 25th in the nation. That's significant improvement, and without belaboring the point too much, the conversation as to why Texas Tech defense improved can start here.

Colby Whitlock took his lumps as a freshman and learned quite a bit. Whitlock didn't get the recognition that he might have deserved this year, but the progression that he made from his freshman year to his sophomore year has been dramatic.

The surprise of the defensive line is perhaps Richard Jones. Jones was slotted behind Henley, but after Henley was injured in the year, Jones stepped in and did a decent job.

The biggest problem with the line, is Ole Miss' strength, which is making tackles behind the line of scrimmage. There's no push amongst the defensive tackles other than Whitlock and along the ends it's the "Williams and Dixon Show" and that's it. Texas Tech is 106th in the nation in tackles for loss and I think it was all to evident against the Sooners how this group can tend to be pushed around. Granted, there are some individual players (i.e. Whitlock and Dixon) that still do a good job of stopping the run, but for the most part there's plenty to be worried about with the Ole Miss offense.

I should also emphasize that the rushing defense got worse as the season progressed. Texas Tech did give up 161 yards against Kansas, and I realize that this was a blowout win, but gave up 186 to Oklahoma State, somewhat expected, 299 to Oklahoma and 229 to Baylor and the incredible Robert Griffin. Not to mention, Texas Tech gave up 11 rushing touchdowns in those last three games, and only gave up 10 in the previous 9 games.

Things have got to tighten up.

Mississippi

Peria Jerry, he is hurting people.

These guys are good.

For the year, the most yards in any given game that the Rebels gave up is 131 against Vanderbilt. The Rebels' last 4 games weren't against the best competition (Auburn, La. Monroe, LSU and Mississippi State) but during these last 4 games these guys only gave up 75, 72, 37 and -51 yards.

Yep, these guys are good.

The leader of this group is Peria Jerry, pictured above, and is an absolute beast. An astounding 17 tackles for a loss and 6 sacks from the defensive tackle position. Peria is probably the highest rated defensive tackle on NFL draft boards in 2009. There's a couple of guys that you should pay attention to on the Ole Miss defense, but Jerry is, without a doubt, one of them. He's going to play on Sundays.

Right behind Jerry in terms of production are defensive end Kentrell Lockett, who, for the year, has 11 tackles for a loss and 2.5 sacks and defensive tackle Greg Hardy, leading the team in sacks with 8.5 for the year. I should also note that Lockett has been much better in the 2nd half of the season, where he registered 8 of his 11 TFL's in the last 6 games.

Ted Laurent, Marcus Tillman and Emmanuel Stephens all dominate the team stats in tackles for loss and once again proves that this is an active defensive line that is doing a tremendous job of getting penetration, pushing opposing offensive lines backwards and making plays.

I've saved the best statistics for last. As good as Texas Tech has been defensively, especially in terms of sacks, Mississippi has been on another level. For the year, Ole Miss is 5th in the nation in sacks with 37 for the year and averaging over 3 a game. If you want to look at tackles for loss, the Rebels are 1st in the nation at 8.92 PER GAME! How about them apples? For the year, Ole Miss has had 107 tackles behind the line of scrimmage for 454 yards and I find that utterly amazing. This is going to be a real test for the Texas Tech offensive line that only gave up 5 sacks for the entire year and only lost 150 yards rushing (58 of those yards were Harrell's) for the year with Baron Batch only losing 12 yards for the year on 111 carries and Shannon Woods only losing 11 yards for the year on 135 carries.

Conclusion:

Ole Miss may have the best defensive line in the nation with 4 or 5 guys that could be playing on Sundays. They're just loaded with talent up and down the line. The Texas Tech defensive line has been improved, but this one's really not close.

Previous Matchups

Quarterbacks :: Running Backs :: Receiver :: Offensive Line :: Defensive Line :: Linebackers :: Secondary :: Special Teams :: Coaching

Matchup	Advantage
Quarterback
Running Back
Receivers
Offensive Line
Defensive Line

Poll

Who do you favor in this matchup of defensive lines?

Texas Tech

98 votes

Mississippi

209 votes

307 votes | Poll has closed

Eastern Washington v. Texas Tech: TT Defense v. EWU Offense

Seth C — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:00:12 -0000

WHEN EASTERN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL:

Statistical Leaders	Eastern Washington
Passing	Matt Nichols: 280 Comp., 440 Att., 3,744 Yds., 34 TD, 9 Int.
Rushing	Dale Morris: 198 Att., 930 Yds., 12 TD Matt Nichols: 129 Att., 392 Yds., 0 TD Alexis Alexander: 52 Att., 267 Yds., 5 TD
Receiving	Aaron Boyce: 85 Rec., 1,308 Yds., 10 TD Brynsen Brown: 52 Rec., 755 Yds., 4 TD Tony Davis: 35 Rec., 498 Yds., 4 TD

Statistical Leaders	Texas Tech
Tackles	Marlon Williams: 81 Darcel McBath: 73 Brian Duncan: 69
Sacks	Brandon Williams: 5.5 Rajon Henley: 4.5 Daniel Howard: 3.0
Interceptions	Jamar Wall: 5 Darcel McBath: 2 Daniel Charbonnet: 1 Anthony Hines: 1

Eastern Washington Passing Offense v. Texas Tech Passing Defense: No question who the leader of this offense is in Matt Nichols. Nichols has good size (6'2"/220), is capable of throwing the ball down the field, and can run as well. Don't be surprised when you leave this game thinking that Nichols is a helluva quarterback, because he is. I don't know if he has any pro potential, but he gets it done at EWU. EWU has their own version of Harrell-Crabtree as Nichols primary target is Aaron Boyce, who had 85 catches and 1,308 yards and 10 touchdowns. Boyce isn't a small receiver (6'3"/215) and Texas Tech corner backs should be well-versed in covering a big receiver with play-making ability. Brynsen Brown and Tony Davis round out the top receiving play makers for EWU.

Texas Tech may have more depth at defensive back than any other position. The defense is led by junior cornerback Jamar Wall and senior free safety Darcel McBath. Daniel Charbonnet and LaRon Moore should round out the starting 4, with Brent Nickerson, Marcus Bunton, and Pete Richardson who should all see time at cornerback, while Anthony Hines and Jordy Rowland should also see time at the safety positions. The Red Raiders were 1st in the Big 12 in passing defense and there's no reason why that trend shouldn't continue, despite EWU's more than capable offense.

Advantage: Texas Tech

Eastern Washington Rushing Offense v. Texas Tech Rushing Defense: EWU is actually pretty good at running the ball, behind senior running back Dale Morris, who rushed for 930 yards last year and is the little brother to Seattle Seahawks running back Maurice Morris. EWU's second leading rushing is Nichols and for the year, the Eagles were 50th in the nation in rushing. Statistically speaking, EWU was a good rushing team, but not a great rushing team.

Here's the deal that I think some folks are overlooking is that EWU only returns 1 starter on the offensive line from last year. There are some guys on the line who have started before, but the long and short of it is that Texas Tech's defensive line should dominate EWU's. The Eagles are going to be young and inexperienced. EWU's biggest offensive lineman is right tackle John Thomas (6'5"/300) and this should be a welcome change for the Texas Tech defensive linemen. We have no idea how well EWU is going to run the ball, and although this probably belongs in the category above, there's a pretty good chance that Texas Tech is going to rush and pressure the hell out of Nichols.

The Texas Tech rush defense isn't great and nothing would please me more than to see the Red Raiders absolutely shut down EWU. Again, it's not like we're talking about shutting down a BCS powerhouse, but it would be a nice way to starting things off by focusing on the run and not letting EWU gain any advantage in the running game. Everything is in place for this unit to improve upon a national 82nd finish last year. Returning are defensive tackles Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley. We all hope that Chris Perry can contribute, while Richard Jones backs up Henley. The coaching staff has been toying with the idea of putting Brandon Sesay at defensive tackle and think this game would be a great place to see how Sesay reacts in a game.

At the ends, Jake Ratliff returns as does Brandon Williams. Personally, I'm looking for more production from both of these guys and would love to see Williams in double-digit sacks, or at least close to that, by the end of the year. There are a lot of backup options at DE, with Sesay, Sandy Riley, Daniel Howard, McKinner Dixon and Brandon Sharpe. Lots of depth and lots of options if someone isn't stepping up. My only request is that whoever is playing at end, contain the quarterback, don't just rush blindly up the field giving Nichols a lane to run. We don't need OSU version 2008 with a talented running quarterback at the helm.

At linebacker, Bront Bird, Brian Duncan, and Marlon Williams look to improve on last year, with Williams being the only junior. Julius Howard has impressed in fall camp thus far and I think the coaches view Howard as a playmaker and it wouldn't at all surprise me to see him get quite a few snaps. Blake Collier and Victor Hunter round out the remaining backups.

Advantage: Texas Tech

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.