SB Nation - Willie Tuitama

How the Oregon defense matches up to the Arizona Wildcat offense

jtlight — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:26:27 -0000

Nick Foles will look to continue his passing success against the Ducks, but the Arizona passing attack may play right into Oregon's defensive strength.

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For most of the season, we were ranting and raving about the Oregon defense. It seemed like the Ducks finally had a defense to match the offense. The defense helped the Ducks through many tight games, and excelled in all phases of the game.

And then, Stanford punched our defense in the mouth, and our defense had it's worst performance of the year. The Ducks give up over 500 yards and 7.0 yards per play, when they had not given up over 5 yards per play in any other Pac-10 game.

However, despite that failure, I'm feeling very optimistic for our defense, and think they match up very well with Arizona this weekend.

Arizona has done an excellent job this year, plugging in Nick Foles as a replacement for Willie Tuitama, and Foles has been incredibly efficient, throwing few interceptions, and completing almost 70% of his passes. Yet, his style is very different from Andrew Luck.

Arizona's runs the "Air Raid" offense implemented by offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. This passing attack is similar to the spread systems run by Texas Tech, and rely on efficiency from the QB position. Arizona also has done a very good job running the ball from their passing formations, and will benefit from the addition of Nic Grigsby, who gets back from injury this week.

In some ways, the Arizoan attack reminds me of the Oregon attack. They do an excellent job spreading the field horizontally, much like the Ducks have done, and run the ball from the same formations. However, they don't have the same commitment to the run that Oregon has, and Arizona has run the same number of running plays as passing plays this season (323 of each).

I have no doubt that Arizona will do a decent job running the ball against the Ducks. Oregon has been solid yet unspectacular against the run this season. However, they have done an excellent job (in every game but Stanford) at getting big plays here and there to force other teams into one-dimensional situations. I believe the same will happen against Arizona. The Wildcats may get some good gains here and there, but it will be only a matter of time until they get into 2nd or 3rd and long situations, allowing the Ducks to concentrate on the Wildcat passing attack.

And when the Wildcat's pass, I like the Ducks chances. First, it's important to note that Nick Foles is not Andrew Luck. Both are asked to do very different things. Luck killed Oregon with the deep ball, and showed accuracy (and a bit of luck) on his deep passes that we likely won't see again this season. Foles does not have that deep threat. In fact, though Arizona has the 2nd best passing attack in the Pac-10, they also have a surprisingly low number of big plays. In fact, though Oregon has roughly 75 less pass attempts on the season, they have roughly the same number of pass plays over 15 yards (45-41 in favor of UA), Oregon has a significant larger number of pass plays over 25 yards (20-12).

This isn't a big surprise, as Foles has not been that accurate when he's gone down the field. But it's also just how the Arizona offense plays. They run a large number of screens and crossing patterns, in an attempt to get one of the many talented receivers in the open field. They find holes in zones, and have a very effective passing game. Without Rob Gronkowski at TE, Arizona just has not had any reliable deep threats, and so they haven't developed this part of their offense.

Yet, I feel that passing game feeds right into Oregon's strengths. After watching the Stanford game, it was clear that Oregon was not truly ready for a deep passing game. While the corners did an adequate job, Luck put many balls right on the money, and though he completed only 60% of his passes, he still average 12.6 yards per attempt. The Cardinal stretched the Oregon defense vertically, and was able to convert enough of the deep attempts to keep the Oregon defense on their heels.

However, Oregon has done an excellent job covering the field horizontally. The Oregon line and linebackers cover the field from sideline-to-sideline as well as any team in the country. They tackle very well on the edge, and any play that does not develop incredibly quickly is able to be chased down by the quick Oregon linebacking corp. Luckily for Oregon, this is the exact type of offense that Arizona runs.

On top of this, some of Arizona's plays do not develop quickly, and it seems that Foles has been slow to make some decisions. For example, in the first offensive play against California, Arizona motioned their FB Chris Grownkowski into the slot, and the pre-snap formation ended up like this:

You can see the cushion Cal is giving both receivers on the bottom of the screen. Jeremiah Masoli has done a spectacular job this season reading this at the line and throwing it over the instant he gets the snap. However, as part of a predetermined screen, Foles hesitated for a few seconds before throwing the ball, allowing Cal to react to this, limiting the play for a 5 yard gain. We have seen Oregon take advantage of defenses in this position for 10-15 yard gains over and over this season. Whether it was indecision, or just how Arizona runs their offense, Oregon will do very well against these predetermined plays.

Against Oregon, a team with incredible linebacking speed, this indecision will be very costly. With the type of offense Arizona runs, they cannot afford plays with little to no gain. They have thrived on efficiency. And the Oregon defense is set up very well to disrupt what Arizona has been doing all season.

A cause for concern is also the pass rush, which was not up to par against USC and Stanford. However, Arizona's offense will make getting pressure on Foles very difficult. They simply get rid of the ball too quickly on many of these plays to get to the QB. However, if Oregon can limit the Wildcat short passing game, then it will be open season. The Wildcats simply have not shown a consistent ability to get open downfield, nor has Foles shown the ability to hit them. After giving up 3 sacks last week (all in downfield passing situations), the Wildcats are vulnerable in that area.

I believe that Arizona will have to work hard for every yard and every first down that it gets. Yards won't come easy for the Wildcats, and when that happens, scoring can become very difficult, especially if the Ducks can keep the Wildcat from starting with good field position.

The Ducks defense is set up very well to limit what the Wildcats can do offensively, and I'm excited to see how they perform this weekend.

Is Cal's Defense Underachieving?

Avinash — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:30:26 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Cal's pass defense struggled again. Are we going to see this all year long?

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DEFENSE, BEARS...DEFENSE???

Most of the postgame reaction has been focused on Cal's lamentable defensive effort, especially against the pass. It's been discussed everywhere, and I figured I'd throw myself into the fire. Literally, since I figure 80-85% of Cal fans will disagree with my next statement:

Outside of Autzen, Bob Gregory hasn't done that much wrong.

Now before all of you start hollering about Prince and Tuel lighting us up, I understand where you guys are coming from. Like many people, I assumed that the depletion of our linebacking corps would be offset by improvements in the defensive line and the secondary, with everyone having starting experience coming back.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. Units don't just revamp at certain areas and expect to get by because the front and the back are supporting them. The linebackers are the core of the defense, especially in a 3-4; take them away and the middle is open to exploitation.

Think of an army with great tanks and experienced soldiers but no aircraft, anti-aircraft or flak. You might have the power and the wherewithal to take out your opponents, but a good enough air attack can blast all that heavy weaponry and veteran savvy out of the park. So it is with the passing defense this season, where the weakness of the linebackers has been felt by the rest of the lineup.

Cal is returning seven but we're missing those four BIG TIME. Let's rank the top players on our defense last year.

1) Zack Follett
2) Syd'Quan Thompson
3) Tyson Alualu
4) Anthony Felder
5) Worrell Williams
6) Mike Mohamed
7) Darian Hagan
8) Rulon Davis (when healthy)

So those four who are gone are in the top 8, and the three linebackers in the top five. Big big losses.

Rulon Davis might never have been as healthy as we'd have liked him to be, but when he was, he was ON. Cameron Jordan is a jolly guy from what I've seen, but at the moment he really hasn't stepped up to replace Davis's raw ability. Don't be deceived by those 6.5 sacks--3.5 came against really bad teams. He's on pace for 2008 numbers, and he's playing probably 50% more than last season after splitting time with Rulon in 2008.

Derrick Hill has performed well, but centers can still battle him one on one, leaving one side to double, triple team Alualu at will. So that means that extra one or two guys blitzing or moving in on the line of scrimmage has to step up, rush in, and hit the quarterback.

Unfortunately...

Cal does not have a pass rushing linebacker. When Cal put that linebacker at the LoS on passing downs last season (usually Follett), it collapsed the pocket, overwhelmed the edge and forced the quarterback into the errant throws, incompletions or sacks. Not this season. Young, Mohamed, Kendricks, Bishop, Holt, none of these guys have been able to fill that mantle. Jarred Price might be the guy to show it, but what he has in pass rush (2 sacks) he lacks in consistency (4 season tackles)

Follett had 10.5 sacks and 4 hurries on his own last season; through seven games, the ENTIRE Bears linebackers corps has combined for 7.5 sacks and 4 hurries.

Note: Interestingly enough (as you probably saw with some of the highlights), Gregory tinkered with a four down linemen set on passing downs to gain extra pass rush, although I'm not sure how much of it had an effect on slowing down Tuel. I'd been pondering a similar idea considering the weakness of our linebackers to add an extra defensive lineman (our strength) for more pass rush, and it seemed Gregory was thinking along the same lines. We'll see how it bears out when Cal plays formidable/weaker offensive lines down the road.

Cal's linebacking corps is still learning the pass defense ropes: Probably the biggest mistake I made in my predictions was asking this question: "is Mike Mohamed capable of becoming Cal's greatest linebacker of the Tedford era?" Whoops. Desmond Bishop, you keep the title.

Don't get me wrong, Mohamed's been good, still the best all-around linebacker for the Bears (he has picks, a forced fumble, a sack, and 61 tackles). Nevertheless, he seems to be suffering from the Rajon Rondo syndrome--he looked like the best linebacker last season because guys were always throwing in his direction to avoid Felder and Williams. Unlike Follett or Desmond, he lacks that game-changing ability. Maybe that'll change, but right now he's merely good when Cal needs great.

Devin Bishop and Eddie Young are okay, but as BWNQ noted, they probably lack proper football instincts, as they've been duped on several important occasions by doing bad things on the field. No matter how good the coaching is, it's REALLY hard to undo instinct.

As for Kendricks and Holt, they have promise, but as sophomores they're still not fully polished. We can probably expect better things from them...in 2010. Right now we can only hope they're given the time to grow and mature so they can come back and smash next season.

Finally, the secondary. This is probably the most mystifying of the three units, even to a guy like me. Last season these guys were ballhawks, and now they're getting pumpfaked, beat at the point of attack. What's going on??

Syd'Quan Thompson has done his job, but the other side, plainly, has not. Darian Hagan got pump-faked out of the starting lineup in Minnesota. Josh Hill got the Oregon start and got picked on, over and over and over. And then both have been taking their turn even though they've been playing more man coverage. Although both are improving, it does leave you a little frustrated, especially with Hagan, who looked so promising last season. The safeties have been competent--Ezeff and Johnson are good at delivering hits, and Cattouse has also shown great promise, but for whatever reason they've been beat a lot.

So why has the secondary regressed? A few possibilities:

1) With the linebackers having trouble defending their zones and tackling afterwards, the secondary has to edge toward the middle of the field to be prepared to support...which in turn opens up the flats and sideline throws. And it doesn't necessarily secure the middle either.

2) The secondary might be more experienced, but given the depth of gamefilm, there is plenty for opposing teams to scout on them. Cal's secondary is not like USC's, whose weaknesses are harder to pinpoint and exploit. Even Syd'Quan might be lockdown one-on-one, but he's still undersized--tall physical receivers can do damage against him if given the proper time. You can only imagine how many more double moves and pump fakes against Hagan and throws to the flats against Hill we'll see this year.

3) PAY ATTENTION. This is the big one...

There are a lot of good quarterbacks in the Pac-10 this season.

Four freshmen have shown great promise--Foles, Luck, Barkley, and, yes, even Tuel (don't forget he also went about 67% against USC too). Add in three guys who've been here before (Masoli, Locker, Canfield) and that's SEVEN Pac-10 quarterbacks who are at the very least competent. That's the most depth the conference has shown at the quarterback stable this decade.

Compare it to the Pac-10 QBs we saw last season: Sanchez was pretty good but still developing, Willie Tuitama had his ups and downs, Masoli was in his first year escaping the shadow of Dixon, Lyle Moevao had his moments although he was carried by the Rodgers brothers, Rudy Carpenter was digesting turf thanks to his awesome offensive line, the Kevin Craft Interception Show missed no stops, Tavita Pritchard was a placeholder, the Washington/Wazzu quarterbacks we faced were bad, bad, bad.

Masoli has quietly worked his way back to a solid 60% completion percentage. Canfield and Foles are horrifyingly good at finding their receivers, hovering at 70% and putting them in the top seven in the conference. Luck isn't as accurate, but he throws touchdowns and not many picks (kind of like Riley-lite). Locker is the most dangerous player in the Pac-10 if he faces a defense that gives him cushion. And Barkley is only going to get better.

They're so good that they're not just beating Cal's zones, they're beating Cal on man. Tuel's two touchdown throws came against man coverage, where he fit that ball in just the right place for the receiver to get it and the defender had no chance to play the ball. Kevin Prince had excellent throws that burned a few guys with excellent man coverage too. Surprisingly, they played pretty well against Barkley after spotting the Trojans ten points. Of course the big fail was Masoli where the Bears played mostly zone, but even when they played man they got beat.

Now the solution would be to be aggressive in the pass rush and send more guys. But who? Cal's linebackers haven't shown they're able to speed their way. Not many of these guys have the ability to stunt or delay the way our group did last year--maybe Alualu, but again he's facing constant double teams. Plus with the quarterbacks being better this season, sending more guys leaves the Bears vulnerable to a precise pass going for six.

So pick your poison. So pick your poison. Do you key in on stopping the run and not allowing big plays and risk giving up easier underneath throws, or gamble with a pass rush or man coverage and take the risk of quarterbacks connecting on long strikes? This is the quandary Gregory is in, and we’ll find out what he comes up with these next few weeks. (HT Hydro for the rephrase)

Is Cal's defense underachieving, overachieving, or performing as expected?

Reactions to defense.

More reactions: AERose has some interesting numbers on 1st/2nd half stats, Rocky63125 wants Gregory to go, royrules had thoughts about Cal's D against UCLA.

Gary Peterson, San Jose Mercury News:

Then came the part no one expected. When Tedford had finished dousing his defenders in lighter fluid, linebacker Steve Fanua set them on fire.

"He's a young buck, a redshirt freshman," Jordan said, smiling. "He has fire in his veins. He gave us a nice little talk."

And this was received how?

"That only amps you up more," Jordan said. "Here's a guy, barely 18 years old, letting us know what this means for him. He's a young kid. He's hungry."

So was Cal's defense when it returned to the field. Jordan recorded two of his two-and-a-half sacks, and three of his six tackles in the second half. One sack defused Washington State's first drive after the intermission. Another, coming on fourth-and-10, ended a Cougars drive at the Cal 18.

Jimmy Tran, Daily Cal:

One of the points emphasized was tackling.

Arguably the most noticeable player guilty of missed tackles was cornerback Darian Hagan. Despite coming off one of his best performances ever last week against UCLA, Hagan struggled to make several key tackles in the open field and gave up a couple big passing plays against WSU.

"He needs to be more consistent, no question about it," Gregory said. "Very poor game today, and we just got to keep working with these kids to grow and mature."

Spaulding Roundup: UCLA Needs To Open Up & Execute On Offense Early On Against Arizona

Nestor — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:57:53 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Mike Stoops' Arizona Wildcats are flying high with an explosive offense (ranked number 1 in Pac-10) this season

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Let's try our best to take our mind off this past weekend's game and look ahead to Saturday's match up against Arizona. Arizona is coming into this game on the opposite end of the emotional spectrum after stunning Stanford in an offensive shoot out last weekend in Tuscon. They are flying high and at least on offense clicking on all cylinders with brand new quarterback in sophomore Nick Foles. jthirtyfour already broke down the Arizona offense to get us started for this game week.

Right now UCLA is probably somewhere around a 9 to 9 1/2 point underdog against the Wildcats. Given what we have seen from the teams in recent weeks (note I am not a betting person) seems like smart money would be on the Wildcats to blow the Bruins out of the desert. I just don't think we have a defensive scheme that is dynamic enough or a personnel that is coached up to be disciplined enough to shut down Arizona. If we are going to even have a chance to win this game on Saturday, I think Neuheisel and Chow will have to trust their offense and open it up early instead of waiting to fall behind again due to usual defensive ineptness in the first few series. They will need to break away from the mindset of "managing" their way to a victory and instead think about being aggressive and attack early and often on offense.

Let's start with quick recap of the series history between these two teams:

SERIES WITH ARIZONA -- UCLA owns a 19-12-2 advatage in the series with Arizona, which dates back to 1927. The Wildcats own a 9-8 record in games played in Arizona and have won the last two played in Tucson. Arizona has also captured the last two meetings in the series, winning 31-10 last season in the Rose Bowl and 34-27 in the 2007 campaign. UCLA's last win in the series came in the 2006 season by a 27-7 score. The Bruins' last win at Arizona came in 2003, a 24-21 verdict. Coach Neuheisel is 4-1 overall, 0-1 while head coach at UCLA, versus the Wildcats.

A year ago, the Bruins played the Wildcats in their Pac-10 opener (game 3 - Sept. 20, 2008) in the Rose Bowl. Arizona jumped out to a 17-7 lead before a Kai Forbath field goal sent the teams to the dressing rooms with UA up 17-10. After a scoreless third quarter, the visitors tacked on 14 more points on a scoring pass and a touchdown run to come away with a 31-10 win. UCLA managed 196 yards of total offense in the contest. Arizona passed for 222 yards and ran for 111 more.

The second half collapse against Arizona at the Rose Bowl last year kind of reminds me of the collapses we have had in last two games during when we played opponents tough most of the game only to completly implode within small stretches when the team fell apart on all facets of the game.

Let me see if I can find any signs of hope going through the Arizona team stats for 2009 season. Not surprisingly the Wildcats have the number 1 passing offense and the 1 overall offense (560.33 yards per game) in the conference. The only vulnerability I see (on surface at least) is their scoring defense is ranked 8th (giving up 26 pts per game) in the Pac-10. They have gotten lit up in their last three games giving up 32 pts to Oregon State, 36 points (in a heartbreaking loss in Seattle) to Washington, and then giving up 38 points to Stanford this past weekend.

I am really not sure whether our defense has the ability to stop Arizona (more on our D after the fold). The question I have is whether our offense can set the tone early on against Wildcats making it a game. Yes, all this season we have talked about our defense setting the tone early. Well I think it's clear that they are probably not capable of it (I really hope I am wrong). The way the Chuck Bullough defense seems to be set up, it seems incapable of coming out and shutting down its opponent early on giving our team any sense of momentum (the only exception seems to be Oregon, even then you can't count too much into that performance given all the injuries Ducks were nursing in that game). More after the jump.

Going back to our defense ATV has more reflections on what has gone wrong this year:

"The past couple of weeks there has been a recurring theme -- we are just not playing sound, fundamental football," Verner said. "I mean tackling and playing within the structure of the defense."

Verner admitted his own culpability. He was beaten deep on a 43-yard touchdown pass by Cal. "I was expecting something different and took myself out of the play," he said.

Verner added, "A lot of our scheme is making sure everyone does what they are supposed to do, because if even one piece is off then the whole play explodes." That, Verner said, comes down to practice.

"It's a cliche, but practice makes perfect," he said. "Some guys in practice are like, 'Oh man, I just want to get this done.' No. You use practice as a learning tool and get ready for the game. There are no excuses."

Verner said the seniors on the defense would deliver that message before today's practice, with linebacker Reggie Carter taking the lead.

"Reggie keeps telling us, 'You never know when you won't be able to play this game anymore, so don't go through the motions,' " Verner said. "We have to drill that into their heads and drill that into their hearts."

That's nice and all but remember the team apparently called a "player only" meeting after the Oregon game too. So I don't care much about rhetoric like this in the paper. I think the main problem with this team defense is not necessarily bad tackling (although no doubt it needs to get better and crisper) or needing to show more aggression (I think we have seen plenty of it). I think the main problem with this defense is a lack of discipline and staying with its assignments.

Time and time again we are seeing in tapes our front 7 finding overshooting their targets and finding themselves helplessly out of the position. It has been happening with regularity since the Tennessee game. I believe that is on the coaches. That is not only on Chuck Bullough and the defensive coaches, I sure hope CRN also takes responsibility for it, if this situation doesn't improve in the next 6 games. To his credit it looks like CRN has identified the key defensive issues himself:

On what ails the defense:
"It's not one thing. It's a combination of a lot of things. The big play was the haunting thing in this game. One of the big plays came when we missed an assignment and we didn't follow our guy in motion so we were a man short. One of them we kind of guessed on a route rather than played a route. One of them was a bad angle and a guy out of control in a run scheme where Best goes 93 yards. Those are the little things I'm talking about. Practice will be a giant array of those little things."

On what's gone wrong the past three games defensively:
"We talked about the Stanford game having more missed assignments than in any of the previous three games. We work hard to shore that up and I thought we played pretty darn good defense against Oregon. The Oregon was a four minute spell with a kick return and an interception return that gave them 14 points."

Again taking bad angles and missing assignments shouldn't be happening 6 games into the season. I am not sure if the problem at this point is so systematic that it can be fixed before next Saturday. At the very least, I hope to see some modicum of changes of improvement against Arizona in Tucson. As for the Zona offense, here are some of the tactics the Wildcats have been successfully using on offense this season:

1. Running the no-huddle offense. Arizona switched to a hurry-up attack on the final drive of the first half, and responded by going 89 yards in 2 minutes 39 seconds. Wildcats' players called the drive, which was capped by Foles' 11-yard touchdown pass to Terrell Turner, the turning point in the game. The score cut Stanford's halftime lead to 28-20, with Arizona due to receive the second-half kickoff.

Arizona ran the no-huddle attack the rest of the way with great success. The Wildcats' game-deciding drive covered 92 yards in 2:30.

"I love playing up-tempo," Foles said. "I love it, the guys love it. " [...]

2. Resting their tailbacks. Injuries to Nicolas Grigsby and Keola Antolin threatened to derail the Wildcats' season.

Foles' ability to make plays has allowed the UA to be productive on offense without overtaxing its banged-up backs.

Arizona ran the ball just 14 times against Stanford, but still managed to get long touchdown runs from both
Grigsby and Greg Nwoko. The Wildcats are still using their running backs, but they're using them smarter.

3. Spreading the ball. Coaches trust Foles to change plays at the line of scrimmage and go through his progressions once the ball is snapped. The results: A spread-the-wealth attitude on offense that the Wildcats never really enjoyed with Willie Tuitama under center. Foles has had a new favorite target in each of his three starts: Nwoko (Oregon State), David Roberts (Washington) and Juron Criner (Stanford).

"He throws a good deep ball," Dykes said. "He gives those guys chances to make plays."

At this point, I don't expect our defense to shut down or dominate the Arizona defense. Not sure we have a dynamic scheme or a personnel disciplined enough to keep them bottled up for 60 mintues. However, it would be considered an accomplishment if they can keep those guys under 30 points in the desert.

As for UCLA on the offense, there is no secret at this points. We have to take advantage of opportunities in the red zone and get it done. That means catch the balls drilled between numbers, not missing open receivers and running with some passion to pick up the tough yardage. From the OC Register:

The previous week against Oregon, UCLA found itself inside the red zone twice. Quarterback Kevin Prince was stopped at the 1 on fourth down in the first quarter, and backup quarterback Richard Brehaut threw an incompletion on fourth down from the Oregon 10 in the fourth quarter.

"It just hasn't clicked yet," Prince said of the Bruins' red-zone inefficiency. "Those things will come. We're just going to keep on working, and those plays will come in the red zone."

The Bruins spend enough time working on their red-zone offense at practice but haven't figured out a way to produce the same success in the games.

"We're just going to do our normal deal and we're just going to have to execute better, especially in the red zone," Prince said. "There is always talk about doing things and once you get in the game, some things work and some things don't."

I think it will have to come down to our offense and I really hope going into this game Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow contemplate opening things up early. Perhaps I am wrong but I don't think this is going to be one of those games in which we are going to be able to "manage" our way into a victory. In other words FGs for TDs are not going to get it done. It's pretty clear at this point that we don't have a defense that will win ball games for us (unless they are taking on another QB like Crompton, which is not going to happen rest of this season).

So, it will be up to our offense - Prince and co - to build on the improvements from last weekend and open it up early. More on our offense's inability to close the deal from the Daily News:

Perhaps there is nobody to blame, because every group has played a part in the inefficiency. The offensive line has failed to get enough push at times and made costly penalties at others. The running back corps has not made that extra burst into the end zone. The wide receivers have dropped passes in the end zone. The quarterbacks have overthrown open wide receivers.

"You do two things: No. 1 you look and see what you're capable of doing," UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel said at Monday's weekly news conference. "But you have to see it demonstrated. We have memories of great red-zone offenses. But then you have to ask your individuals who play those positions, can they execute them?"

Hopefully the answer is more positive next weekend. It will certainly enable to feel lot more positive about the program after three brutal Saturdays.

GO BRUINS.

How Will Cal Perform in the Final Seven Games of 2009?

Avinash — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:00:22 -0000

via calbearsonline.com (Get the desktop wallpaper here!)

The number seven is supposed to be a lucky number (it actually is defined as a lucky prime). There are Seven Lucky Gods of good fortune in Japanese mythology, seven heavens in Islam, seven days of creation, and Seven wonders of the World. Add in The Seven Samurai, 007, seven hills of Rome, Game 7, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, etc. etc.

It all adds up--seven is usually a good thing. Well, except for maybe 7th Heaven.

Seven has popped up here and there during Jeff Tedford's time at Cal, but it hasn't always been of the fortunate type. The Bears won seven games in Tedford's first season. They've had winning seasons in his seven seasons at Cal. He's produced seven straight 1000 yard rushers. Two seasons of Cal going 7-0 at home.

On the flip side though, seven has also been a curse for us. The Bears needed and couldn't get the seven points to win games in LA in 2004 and Tucson in 2006, wins that would probably have clinched BCS berths and put the program over the top. The Bears have lost seven of eight Pac-10 games on the road (that one win coming against the worst team of the decade). And it was those final, dreadful seven games of 2007 that left Cal fans reeling and Tedford scratching his head.

Now, again like in 2007, we have seven games left in the regular season. As we hesitantly get back to the football grind, we all wonder, how will the Bears perform after our last two defeats? Who do you think are the toughest opponents we'll face? Other than Wazzu, who do you think we'll pounce on? Will seven grant us luck this time or hit us with another curse?

After the jump, a quick hit look at our remaining seven opponents, and the strengths and weaknesses of each. If you want, use that info to help guide your thoughts in the comments.

Keep in mind my forecasts are just assessing my own ridiculous probabilities I just came up with on the fly, I'm not picking who's winning.

UCLA

via 4.bp.blogspot.com

Strengths: Perhaps the second best secondary in the Pac-10 besides USC, giving up only 162 yards per game through the air (13th in the nation), as well as allowing only 5.7 yards per attempt and a 52% completion rate (both top 20 national rankings). Not too shabby in rushing defense (32nd in rushing YPA) and scoring defense (25th in PPG), and they're 21st in 3rd down conversion defense. I'll go out on a limb and say this team's strength is defense.

Weaknesses: Can't run the ball (100th in the nation in yards per game, 102nd in yards per carry), can't pass the ball far (104th in passing yards per game, 105th in passer rating, 100th in pasing yards per attempt), thus can't move the ball much (107th in total yards per play, 114th in total yards per game); can't convert third downs (103rd), thus doesn't pick up many 1st downs (107th); can't put the ball in the end zone (last in the country with 9 touchdowns and 104th in the nation in overall points per game). I'll go out on a limb and say this team's weakness is offense.

Washington State

via www.coug.com

Strengths: They have eleven players who can start on offense and defense.

Weaknesses: It's the same answer to the number of digits of pi.

Arizona State

Strengths: Could be your sleeper Pac-10 defense of the season. Vontaze Burfict could be the most talented linebacker in the conference...as a freshman.

The Sun Devils have only allowed 50 rushing yards per game, second to only Texas. Jacquizz Rodgers barely broke 80 yards on them. They've allowed 11.8 first downs, first in the country. They've forced 15 sacks, third in the conference behind Oregon and USC, and 44 tackles for loss (9th in the country). They've also gotten 11 interceptions, 3rd in the country. In other words, they look just like UCLA's defense--testy and formdiable.

The Sun Devil rushing game has also improved from horrendous to average, which helps them keep the ball moving. Running and defense; two key ingredients to a usually solid Pac-10 team. Add in Halloween in Tempe and I'm fairly spooked about this one. If their defense just needs to force mistakes and give their offense a short field to work with, look out.

Weaknesses: Still not sure how much the stats mean, since they've played Idaho State, Louisiana Monroe and Wazzu. We'll probably get a better idea after they play Locker and Luck these next two weeks. Still, going into Georgia and nearly knocking off the 3-3 "I just got curbstomped by Lane Kiffin" Bulldogs has to count for something, right? Um, right?

Meanwhile, while the running game has gone up, their passing game has regressed even further. Their quarterback play from Danny Sullivan is in the lower tier of the Pac-10, placed in the bottom 15 of passer rating, the bottom 20 of passing yards per attempt, and the bottom 25 of completion percentage nationwide. We might be seeing Brock Osweiler in this game if Sullivan's struggles persist.

It'll be up to Cal's defense to make sure these trends continue, no matter who's in the game..

Oregon State

via a.espncdn.com (photo by Don Ryan)

Strengths: Surprisingly, the Beavers pass attack has been one of the best in the Pac-10, being first in yards per game and first in completion percentage, with Sean Canfield completing at a two-thirds clip. When they get to the red zone, they're 23 for 24 in scores, and tops in the conference with 17 red zone scores. Their rushing defense is in the top 20 of the country, holding Gerhart to absolutely nothing. Oh yeah, and we haven't beaten them at home since Tedford got here. That's always a nice psychological edge.

Weaknesses: Canfield's success has come despite enormous struggles in pass protection, with the Beavers O-line already having given up 19 sacks. They depend heavily on the Rodgers brothers, who have almost three-fourths of Oregon State's all-purpose yardage; if either of them get injured, their offense becomes something that amounts to less than one-dimensional, if not quite zero-dimensional (how many times can they run an inside zone with Quizz or a fly sweep with James?).

Their pass defense, usually stout, is a trouble spot, currently fourth to last in the conference in passing yards per game. And when they let opponents into the red zone, they usually give up touchdowns (fourth to last in the country). Oregon State technically is a weaker squad than their Rose Bowl-contending team from last season. Naturally, this game terrifies the hell out of me.

via tucsoncitizen.com

Arizona

Strengths: Their offense hasn't missed a beat with Willie Tuitama now taking orders in Tucson; even though they don't run the ball much, their rushing YPC is 9th in the country and they pile up 194 YPG. Their passing game has become amazingly efficient under Nick Foles; they've completed 66% of their passes (19th in the country), but Foles is even better than that, completing nearly 72% of his throws. Their defense isn't too bad either; they give up a lot of completions, but their pass defense is 31st in yards per game and run defense is 20th. The Wildcats have put up great fights on the road against Oregon State and Washington, had a great shot at going 2-0, and could very well be the third or fourth best team in the conference.

I expect this to be a very difficult game, especially if Sonny Dykes is able to gameplan the Airraid offense well enough to pick apart the zone coverage Cal offers. It'll be up to the Golden Bear offense to match it up, but the Wildcat defense definitely looks solid itself.

Weaknesses: As shown in the UDub game, when Arizona gets into the red zone they can struggle to punch it in. They're 81st in the country in scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

Despite the defense refusing to give up the tons of yards, they're 92nd in the country in 3rd down defense. Even worse, they're next to last in allowing touchdowns in the red zone, giving up six 84% of the time. The good news for them is that they don't allow defenses into the red zone that much.

Furd

via clog.dailycal.org

Strengths: They're the best power running team in the conference behind the White Stallion. Toby Gerhart has the Cardinal paced at 8th in YPA and 13th in rushing yards per game. Their offensive line is pretty good in pass and running situations having given up only 4 sacks this year (T-7th in the nation), and 21 tackles for loss allowed (T-13th). Also, they have the deadliest kickoff returner in the country in Chris Owusu. I'd be very happy if Alamar opts to kick the ball out of bounds after every Cal score. Cal's run D (which has been pretty good) should face its stiffest test of the season here.

Weaknesses: I think I overrated Andrew Luck a tad. Although his passer rating's around 140 and averaging a solid 8.5 YPA, he throws the least out of anyone in the conference, and his completion percentage is still under 57 percent. We saw what happened when the Furd could not run the ball. Also, the jury is out on their defense, especially after getting chewed up by Oregon State in that first half; they will definitely be put to the test against a fierce Arizona offense this week. Jahvid Best ran all over them last season; can he do it at the Farm?

Washington

via seattletimes.nwsource.com

Strengths: Jake Locker is finally becoming a great passer. Well, sort of--he's still not very accurate, hovering around 57%. However, he's making the throws that count, and it's reflected on one crucial stat--3rd down conversions, where the Huskies are 5th in the country. If you remember that USC game, Locker made some critical 1st downs on 3rd and long situations, and he did the same against Arizona. In 3rd down situations, the passing offense has picked up 30 first downs, 3rd in the country. Considering how porous Cal's zones have been this season, this is definitely a worrisome spot.

Weaknesses: Locker's transcendence hides a lot of weaknesses in this Washington team. The Huskies cannot run the ball (80th in YPA, 93rd in YPG), and most of the running yards come from Locker. Their defense, after an incredible performance against USC, has regressed to 90th in scoring D, 82nd in rushing D YPG, 105th in rushing D YPC, 102nd in passing D YPG, 111th in completion rate D, 113th in passing D YPA...safe to say Nick Holt's unit has a ways to go.

Still, I have too much respect for Locker to give the Bears overwhelming odds to win ths one. Add in what figures to be inclement weather and this final game should be a blast.

Poll

What will Cal's record be over the final seven games?

7-0

146 votes

6-1

107 votes

5-2

82 votes

4-3

43 votes

3-4

15 votes

2-5

10 votes

1-6

8 votes

0-7

10 votes

421 votes | Poll has closed

Inside the Pac-10, Week 6: Big Plays

Avinash — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 10:00:41 -0000

In my mind, the three marquee conference matchups came down to those cliched big plays. Small individual moments helped decisively swing each of them one way or the other.

So I didn't take much from the results of these ones about how everyone stacks up, other than, "These last seven games for Cal are going to be real tough."

Washington 36, Arizona 33

Mike Stoops bewilders me. Every now and then his Wildcats lose a game they shouldn't. This is one of them. Although I hardly blame him for the defeat, he did make some questionable decisions down the stretch.

1) Kicking a field goal up 9 (two score game) facing a 4th and 3 at the 7 with 4:45 left. Here's the issue. You kick the field goal, you're up 12 (still only two scores, albeit two touchdowns). If you go for it and make the first down, you have the opportunity to go for the touchdown to make it a two touchdown, two two-point-conversion game to tie (or if you make it and go for two, it's a three possession game).

Even if you don't make it, you leave Jake Locker and the Huskies offense to go 93 yards for a touchdown that would only cut the lead to two, and they'd almost certainly need an onside kick or might've burned a timeout here and there. As it is, the Wildcats curiously poor kickoff team let a return go back to the 45 yard line, and it takes Locker 80 seconds to put them in the end zone and make it a one score game.

2) Coming out and passing on 1st down with 2:50 left. Why. WHY? WHY??? Even if you run three freaking dive plays with Nwoko, you burn those two timeouts Washington have. Worst case scenario, you give the Huskies about two minutes to go, needing to drive a likely 60-70 yards with no timeouts. Even with Locker back there that's a tall order.

Yeah, that was a terribly fluky play, but Arizona shouldn't have been throwing in the first place. While I'm not saying Stoops was the reason they lost (he wasn't), he probably could've made the final decision easier for his Wildcats to escape undefeated in the Pac-10, and likely a ranked team

As for the game itself? Great one, all the way around. Between that fantastic rocking Husky crowd, and Locker and Nick Foles tearing the defenses apart, it was a sweet West Coast shootout. Interestingly, the quarterbacks are a stark contrast in style and method. Locker had about a dozen great long throws that have become his trademark. Although he still struggles with anything intermediate (52% completion rate won't get it done most days), his play-making ability is unparalleled in the Pac-10 (who else can scamper for a 56 yard TD rush?) and keeps his Huskies in ballgames they would probably lose otherwise.

Foles, by contrast, is Willie Tuitama, version 2.0. 39 of 53??? Through his two starts in conference he's now averaging a 72% rate. Although the Huskies defense couldn't stop paraplegics from throwing on them (they were giving up a 63% completion rate and 9 passing yards per attempt BEFORE this game), that's mighty impressive.

It's safe to say a lot of Pac-10 quarterbacks are passing Kevin Riley by these past few weeks. What will be his response in LA?

Despite the clutch QB play from both sides, these offenses have huge weaknesses, notably in the run game. Running backs from both sides were able to combine for barely 100 yards, which just isn't enough to beat stingier defenses. Foles was able to guide the Wildcats down the field several times but the red zone offense stalled from there, settling for four field goals on seven tries. The Huskies scored their touchdowns by evading the red zone entirely, relying on Locker's arm to get them there.

While the Huskies can get by with Locker doing some of the pounding on the ground, I'm not sure what the Wildcats can do. They probably need Keola Antolin back, because neither Nic Grigsby nor Greg Nwoko were able to penetrate a Husky defense giving up 178 rushing yards a game and 5.4 rushing yards per carry. Next week's game hosting the Furd will be critical, with the loser pretty much out of the Pac-10 race (neither of those teams is sweeping the Oregon-Cal-USC trifecta).

Reactions to Arizona-Washington

John Berkowitz, UW Dawg Pound: "The Wildcats dominated time of possesion 39:19 to only 20:15 for Washington. The Wildcats outgained the Huskies 461 to 256 yards! Jake Locker was only 12-23 with one interception for a total of 140 yards. He did run for a season high of 92 yards. Jake was responsible for over 90% of the Washington offense tonight. What was key for Jake and Washington was a 56 yard TD run in the first quarter plus three TD passes and the pass for that important two point conversion."

Scott Cushing, Seattle PI: "All night long, and I mean ALL NIGHT LONG, Arizona ran that wide-receiver screen play. First to one side, then the other. Play after play after play. And why not? It kept working. Desmond Trufant broke it up once, but it worked to perfection every other time. It's almost as if Seattle was Zaire for one night; UW as Ali Arizona as Foreman and that screen pass was the rope-a-dope. I don't know how else to explain it. It's as if Holt and the defense were baiting Foles into throwing that one errant pass at just the wrong (or right) time because they knew that that the ball would bounce off of Delashaun Dean's heel right into Mason Foster's waiting arms and he would sprint untouched into the endzone. How else do you explain it? They must have known it would happen.

I'm only half kidding, but it's amazing that they decided to, at that time, during that play, blow it up. They knew it was coming and smothered the play, confusing Foles, who had been nearly perfect all night, into making a terrible pass."

Bobby Stover, Arizona Daily Wildcat: "It was (the coaching staff’s) fault for leaving the option on," head coach Mike Stoops said. "Nick was doing what he was supposed to do and it just falls on us as coaches for make a tactical error late in the game...I’m disappointed we didn’t win but I’m not disappointed in the way our kids played tonight...We probably played good enough to win. It just came down to finishing and then that freak play. But that’s just part of college football and the swings of the game."

Oregon 24, UCLA 10

What the hell do I make of this game? Just like Oregon State-Washington, everything changed on one play.

The Bruins had a great chance to knock the Ducks off the pedestal and gagged it away. In terms of offense, it was Oregon 10, UCLA 3 (and even then, that Duck score came off a midfield fumble by Kevin Prince, so it's hard to say). Both sides had a mind-numbing pick-six, and Kevin Craft wasn't even involved.

The only bright spot on other side was the re-emergence of the Oregon run game. Redshirt freshmen LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner (who scored the kickoff return) could be supplanting Best and Vereen as the most potent Pac-10 running back duo. No offense to Blount, who is a physical horse, but he lacks the speed and agility of these two guys to make moves into the holes and cut in the spread offense. James continues to impress with the spinning and the juking, and Barner has pure velocity that can terrorize any defense he faces. Nate Costa wasn't really impressive, although he did make two nice throws on 3rd down on one second half drive, including the touchdown.

However, on defense? These guys are solid. Not sure what happened that morphed Nick Aliotti into Buddy Ryan, but his units are coming out firing. The pass rush schemes are sweet to watch--delayed blitzes with the linebacker looking like he's dropping into coverage, sending the corner from the side, sometimes pure manhandling one-on-one, etc. The UCLA offensive line was one step short, especially with Breahaut came in and Oregon sent pressure on every other play. And that goal-line stand in the first half changed the complexion of the game; Kevin Prince could never play loose enough with the Bruins either playing in a tight matchup or in comeback mode.

As for UCLA? They had a sixteen-play, eight minute drive that ended with Kai Forbath connecting on a 52 yard field goal. I'm guessing they'll be emphasizing ball control in beating Cal next week, since it doesn't seem the Bruins come by their points easily.

Kevin Prince started out the game okay and seemed to get in rhythm in the 2nd quarter against the zone defense, but had all sorts of trouble when his team fell behind, and Richard Brehaut didn't fare much better being thrown in there in the 4th quarter. The Bruins also could not run the ball, putting up around 70 yards on the ground, 22 of those by Prince. Norm Chow also had some quizzical playcalls--two successive QB sneaks at the 1 on 3rd and 4th and goal?

Logically, next week against Cal, they'll explode for 200 yards rushing, Prince will go out and complete 65 percent of his passes and he'll lead the Bruins to four scores. That's how the script goes with us this year, right?

Reactions to Oregon-UCLA

mdjohns4, Bruins Nation: "But it has become all too clear that Brehaut needs to play. If we have a quarterback making elementary mistakes (like Prince and Craft) why not have the highly recruited, Elite 11 camper that has been bred to be a quarterback learning from them when he makes them? The fact that our quarterbacks are relatively even in terms of effectiveness right now should show that the one with the potential to turn this offense into one that can make plays downfield needs to play. We don't need a "game manager." That is coach-speak for "he sucks too much to make plays himself". We've got a young team with raw talent and the potential to go to a bowl game this year, as well as prepare for the ensuing dynasty over the coming years. Coach, stick with Brehaut. Please?"

jtlight, Addicted to Quack: "I said earlier in the week that this game would tell us a lot about the Oregon defense. And, I think we saw exactly how good this defense can be. After letting the UCLA grind out a 9 first downs and 148 yards in the first half, the Oregon defense brought down the hammer in the second, scoring a touchdown, forcing 3 turnovers, and holding UCLA to 5 first downs and 73 on 2.35 yards per play. Besides one long drive in the first half, the Oregon defense did what it should have done: dominate the Bruins offense."

Chris Foster, LA Times: "[Norm Chow on the quarterbacks]: "I don't know, it's too early to call. I think Kevin Prince gives us the best chance to win. That's one man's opinion."...[Chow on the offensive struggles]: "We have a freshman at left tackle, three sophomores on the offensive line, a junior college transfer, a freshman at running back, a freshman at quarterback and two sophomores at wide receiver.""

John Hunt & Jeff Smith, the Oregonian: "Oregon's defense wasn't about to let this one get away. In these three conference games, the Ducks have yet to give up an honest touchdown. Now having outscored California, Washington State and UCLA by a combined 118-19 score, the two opponents' touchdowns have come on drives totaling one yard.

"I think people are starting to jump on the bandwagon," Oregon coach Chip Kelly said. "They're as good a defense as I've seen in a long time.""

Oregon State 38, Furd 28

via a.espncdn.com (Image from Don Ryan, AP)

In the other two marquee matchups, it was about unexpected plays changing the complexion. In this game, it was a surprise play not being converted that made the difference.

First play from scrimmage, Andrew Luck executes a perfect playfake that the Beavers bite on, then throws it perfectly in stride to Chris Owusu. Owusu snares it, looks like he's about to break for the score...then looks ahead a step too early before securing it. Dropped pass, opportunity lost.

If that play converts, the crowd's deflated, the Furd are up 7-0, they can establish Gerhart more thoroughly, etc. etc... Instead? We get a virtual carbon copy of Oregon-Cal (with the caveat that Oregon State isn't quite as potent, and the Furd performed much better in rallying). Jacquizz Rodgers took the role of Jeremiah Masoli, accumulated 134 yards and 3 TDs on the first three drives, putting the Beavers up by 21. Goodnight to the Furd.

On defense Oregon State bottled up Gerhart with seven or eight in the box (rarely nine, they respected Luck's ability to pass). The Beavers always looked a step ahead in the pass coverage, forcing Luck into completing 40% of his passes, including 0% in the first quarter. These are growing pains for the freshman quarterback, although it seemed like he made a valiant comeback effort late. His defense didn't do him any favor, giving up 359 yards of total offense to the Rodgers brothers, including a backbreaking 16 play, 7 minute second half drive where the duo picked up the last 56 of the 80 yards.

So Oregon State's now 2-1 in the Pac-10, 2-0 in October, rolling toward a showdown with USC at the Coliseum in two weeks. Can Mike Riley and Quizz do it again?

Reactions to Furd-Oregon State

Jake Bertalotto, Building the Dam: "Danny Langsdorf brought the Oregon State rendition of the trendy Wildcat formation out of the lab Saturday afterno on. On it's debut play, it produced sophomore tailback Jacquizz Rodgers' longest rush of his OSU career-- a 61-yard scamper that set the Beavers up for their second touchdown of the game. Jacquizz would score four touchdowns on the afternoon and account for 271 yards of total offense-- almost certainly his best game since the Beavers downed USC last season."

Elliott Almond, San Jose Mercury News: "But more than anything, Stanford just couldn't recover from a devastating 21-0 deficit by the second quarter. Jacquizz Rodgers, who had been held to fewer than 100 yards rushing in the three previous outings, slipped underneath defenders in the middle, or wiggled out of the grasp of tacklers in the open field. He looked capable of breaking a big gain almost every time he touched the ball. "We weren't making tackles," Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said."

Arizona State 27, Washington State 14

via a.espncdn.com (Image from Dean Hare, AP)

The Sun Devils fumbled the ball six times. They turned it over six times in total. Their starting quarterback Danny Sullivan got rotated in and out of the game with Brock Osweiler (only for a series though). And they still had a 20 point lead going into the 4th quarter, with the Cougars needing a 99 yard TD pass to cut it to the respectable two touchdown margin.

Key stat #1: -54 yards rushing for Wazzu. Key stat #2: Their punter was the leading rusher (on a fake punt for 15 yards).

Sigh. Is this what the Tom Holmoe era was like at Cal?

Reactions to Arizona State-Washington State

Grady, Coug Center: "In the end, this game played out the way most of us expected. Two anemic offenses and one stellar defense giving us an ugly game, but also a closer game than we're used to seeing. As one would expect, the stellar defense won out. ASU was too much to handle, with Vontaze Burfict, Mike Nixon, and co. dominating this game from the opening snap. The Cougs faced one of the best rushing defenses in the country, and boy did it show - between numerous tackles for losses, broken plays and sacks, the Cougars ended up with negative 54 yards rushing. Negative 54."

Pitchfork Nation: "[Dennis Erickson] was nailed pretty good on the sideline by Gerell Robinson midway through the 3rd quarter. Originally, the ASU radio broadcast designated a WSU player had run into him. Tim Healey, Jeff Van Raaphorst and Doug Franz described the scene as Erickson laying on the sideline and then being directed to the bench by the team doctor. He got up and stood on the sideline for one play a few moments later, then retreated to the bench once again. However, in classic DE fashion, he basically told the doctors, in no better way, to screw off."

Only Cal fans care about these

Minnesota 35, Purdue 20

The Daily Gopher: "The Mulligan Offense still reared it's ugly head with some occasional plays called that made you scratch your head. But the offense committed just one penalty after the first quarter, the OL played their best game of the year and Adam Weber threw one pick but completed 4/6 with a touchdown run. He wasn't asked to do much (and he didnt') as the Gopher ground game really took over."

Wake Forest 42, Maryland 32

Testudo Times: "Outside of an 85-yard kickoff return from Torrey Smith and a minor emergence by Gary Douglas, there was basically nothing positive for Maryland. Sure, there was a slight comeback, but the game was well over at that point. Wake won 42-32, but the score isn't anywhere close to how one-sided this game was. Want to know how bad it was? Wake had 381 yards of offense...in the FIRST HALF. Maryland barely broke 100. They were on pace for 762 yards!"

Also a hilarious animated image of Debbie Yow (Maryland's AD) looking distressed on the sideline.

Arizona Team Capsule

Smooty — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:05:38 -0000

Appearing in a bowl game last season, for the first time in a decade, whet the appetite of Arizona fans, and players. More is expected. This team has the depth and athletes to compete with anyone in the Pac-10, it just lacks that prototypical star player who changes the game every week. Head Coach Mike Stoops received his long-awaited contract extension this off-season. The hot-seat will remain cool for Coach Stoops as long as the team continues to improve.

When Arizona has the ball:

The offense returns four starters from last year's opening game, but seven players who started a significant portion of the season last year. The team lost QB Willie Tuitama, WR Mike Thomas, OT Eben Britton, OT James Tretheway, and OG Joe Longacre. The team returns its top two rushers from 2008, in Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin. Although Sonny Dykes' Air Zona offense is known for spreading the field and throwing the ball, Arizona's rushing attack will be one of the biggest keys to a successful 2009 campaign.

Running Game: Arizona's two leading rushers (Grigsby and Antolin) are back, with the addition of bruising Greg Nwoko. The trio has already earned the nickname Earth, Wind and Fire from their Arizona defensive counter-parts. With Grigsby and Antolin, 1,678 yards and 23 touchdowns returns to a stacked backfield. The coaching staff has raved about Nwoko, who should provide the power-punch in short yardage situations that Grigsby and Antolin lack. The offensive line lost NFL draftee Eben Britton, as well as stalwarts James Tretheway and Joe Longacre. Despite the losses, experience does return: Mike Diaz (9 starts) has switched to left tackle; Colin Baxter (24 starts) took over at center when Blake Kerley went down early last year at UCLA; and right tackle Adam Grant (5 starts) is the grizzled veteran of the group, who is ready to breakout after an injury plagued career thus far. Overall, the line may have lost an elite tackle in Eben Britton, but it returns experience and versatility.

Passing Game: Record-breaking quarterback Willie Tuitama is gone from last year's team. Sophomores Matt Scott and Nick Foles have been battling all off-season and training camp to replace Tui. At this point, a starter has not been named, and both are expected to play in the season opener against Central Michigan. The Wildcats also lost record-breaking WR Mike Thomas. Despite the losses, the Cats return some very important pass-catchers. All-World TE Rob Gronkowski is back for his junior season. Gronk caught 47 balls for 672 yards and 10 TDs, all while battling mononucleosis at the beginning of the year. WRs Terrell Turner and Delashaun Dean are both back, and bring with them 96 catches, 1,173 yards and five scores. Sophomore WR William "Bug" Wright will be replacing the departed Mike Thomas. Coaches have raved about Bug all off-season. H-Back Chris Gronkowski returns, with eight starts under his belt, and a 24.8 YPC average from last season.

When opponents have the ball:

Rush Defense: Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed will be coming at quarterbacks from the edge while Donald Horton and Earl Mitchell attack from the middle. Brooks Reed had 8 sacks last year and Ricky Elmore had 4. These guys can come and come quick. The depth on the defensive line is great with D'Aundre Reed, Dominique Austin, Lolomana Mikaele, and Apaiata Tuihalamaka waiting in wings. The linebacking corp will be Sterling Lewis, Vuna Tuihalamaka, and Xavier Kelly starting. Corey Hall, C.J. Parish, R.J. Young and outstanding freshman Jake Fischer will be rotating in to help keep everyone fresh all year long.

Pass Defense: This is one of the strengths of this year's team. Devin Ross is back. Trevin Wade is stepping up from nickel-back a year ago, where he tied for team lead in interceptions, and will be a full-time starter at corner. Cam Nelson is back at safety and super-talent Robert Golden has made the switch this offseason from corner to safety. All four of these guys fly around the ball, and will punish ball carriers. The Wildcats typically deploy a zone-coverage scheme in the secondary, so look for plenty of opportunities for interceptions and big hits. Super-frosh Adam Hall (who still may redshirt) backs up Golden and Nelson at safety.

Schedule:

The Wildcats drew a tougher schedule in 2009 than 2008. The Cats have an even six home games, six road games in 2009. Five of the six road games are against top-notch opponents, and the sixth is in Seattle at Husky Stadium, which despite last season has historically been hard on road teams. Some of you may not consider Arizona State "top-notch," but everyone knows traveling to Tempe for the Territorial Cup is a challenge. The home slate is more forgiving. On paper, Oregon presents the toughest challenge at Arizona Stadium.

Home games: Central Michigan, Northern Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon

Road games: Iowa, Oregon State, Washington, California, Arizona State, USC

The first four games, and the last four games is where the success of Arizona's season will be determined. Central MIchigan, @ Iowa, and @ Oregon State present three big challenges right out of the gate. To close, @ Cal, home versus Oregon, @ Arizona State, and @ USC present a difficult finish.

Outlook:

Everything is rosy - Arizona's quarterback issues are not a problem and Matt Scott, Nick Foles, or some combination of the two guide the Air Zona offense with ease. The defense plays strong all year, and rivals USC for tops in the conference. The Cats win five of six home games, at least, and at minimum split on the road, looking at an eight win season or better.

The sky is falling - The team flip-flops quarterbacks all season, and the offense never finds the consistency it enjoyed under Willie Tuitama the last two seasons. The defense is strapped at linebacker, and continues to struggle against running quarterbacks. The Cats split their six home games, and pick up one or two tough road games, sputtering to a four or five win season.

Arizona Roundtable

TwistNHook — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:30:09 -0000

via www.u.arizona.edu

TwistNHook: We lost a much-beloved Willie T. They lost a much-beloved Willie T.

Which loss will sting worse?

HydroTech: I think their loss of Willie T. hurts more. In our offense, with the FB taking on a smaller roll, the loss of Willie T. isn't too bad. However, for Arizona, their Willie T. started for pretty much four straight years. That's four years without any QB understudies getting quality reps in games. In other words, their QB this year will be pretty inexperienced. Who is their new QB this year? Matt Scott?

Yellow Fever: It just occurred to me that I know absolutely zero players on both Arizona and Arizona State

TwistNHook: But how any fantasy players do you know on Arizona and Arizona State?

Random, but unfortunate news. Mike Stoops is getting divorced:

University of Arizona football coach Mike Stoops is getting divorced, he announced at his first news conference of the season this morning.

Stoops, 47, was visibly emotional when he made the announcement at the end of the news conference. Stoops and wife Nicole have two children: Payton and Colton.

"Sadly, I must make the announcement today that my wife Nicole and I have separated and will be taking the difficult step of a divorce," he said. "This is a very hard time for us. But more so for our two young children as this is a very personal matter.

Avinash: Lute Olson, now Mike Stoops. Are there an abundance of cougars in Tucson or what?

TwistNHook: You are really obsessed with women from Arizona, aren't you?

Avinash: I'm riding the Meghan McCain bandwagon.

Ragnarok: Well, it sucks for him and his family, but I really feel like this is none of our business.

TwistNHook: Tell that to AZStarnet.com, Ragnarok! Tell that to AZStarnet.com.

Man, did Arizona have an amazing passing offense last year or what? Do you guys believe they'll have a similar passing offense this year?

Avinash: No.

Next question!

via arizonaalumni.com

TwistNHook: Rob Gronkowski killed us last year. He is a massive beast of a tight end. Look at his numbers:

Career Totals
Year	G-GS	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long
2007	12-9	28	525	18.8	6	57
2008	10-9	47	672	14.3	10	43
Total	22-18	75	1197	15.9	16	57

Do you cover him with a linebacker? He's a beast! Last year he had these numbers against us:

REC

YDS

AVG

15.2

Keep an eye on him. If we can control or contain Gronk, it'll go a long ways towards winning this one.

Avinash: The Gronkowski brothers haunted my nightmares last season. What were the chances that both of them would score on us and beat us on two separate teams?

Anyone know how good Arizona's O-line is? Experienced, green, somewhere in between? That could be the key to winning this one.

via photos.oregonlive.com

TwistNHook: The official Pac10 site itself believes their OLine wont be that good:

Prolific quarterback Willie Tuitama is gone, along with stellar WR Mike Thomas and NFL-bound OT Eben Britton, so a dip might be expected in the Arizona offense in `09. The Cats don't think so, however, as a number of notable returnees breeds optimism the UA spread offense will still be potent. QBs Matt Scott and Nick Foles will battle it out for Tuitama's vacated spot, and whoever wins that competition will have plenty of help around him. The Cats did a good job of running the ball last year and 1,000-yard rusher RB Nic Grigsby is back, along with talented backup RB Keola Antolin. Also back is All-Pac-10 TE Rob Gronkowski, widely considered the best in the nation at his position. Some rebuilding is needed on the offensive line with C Colin Baxter and OG Mike Diaz the starting points.

The name "Keola Antolin" gave me Vietnam-esque flashbacks. I've been in the fetal position for the last 20 minutes rocking back and forth on that one.

Man am I happy, though, that Mike Thomas is gone. He was the only receiver to do better than Gronk against us last year. They kept throwing those Steve Smith-esque shadow routes where he is in the flat and then steamrolls his way to the first down markers. AHHHHH!

HydroTech: Fun fact:

Arizona finished 2nd in the Pac-10 last year for average yards per passing attempt at 7.7 yards per attempt. This was when Arizona had Willie T. and Mike Thomas... but now they're both gone.

Arizona had the best field goal percentage in the Pac-10 last year with a 87.5% success rate. Their kicker from last year, Jason Bonzio, has graduated.

Avinash: Well, their offense looks like they're in as bad a shape as their ASU brethren.

How about their defense?

via www.tucsoncitizen.com

TwistNHook: Well, it is looking solid. They might have a team similar to 2008 Cal. Staunch D and hope their O can rebuild quickly.

What you need to know: It’s time to start heaping more credit on defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, who molded last year’s unit-in-transition into one of the Pac-10’s stingiest defenses. Now that he’s got 10 players back with starting experience, this could be the best Arizona defense since Dick Tomey was roaming the sidelines. The strength of the group is a talented, Devin Ross-led secondary that was a microcosm of last season’s improbable results. Combine their shutdown skills with the relentless pass rush of DE Brooks Reed and DT Earl Mitchell, and opponents might be well-served to avoid the airways. That’ll put added pressure on a run defense that’s a little less dependable and a lot more likely to be tested this fall.

Star of the defense: Senior CB Devin Ross
Player that has to step up and become a star: Senior LB Vuna Tuihalamaka
Unsung star on the rise: Sophomore SS Robert Golden
Best pro prospect: Ross
Top three all-star candidates: 1) Ross 2) Junior DE Brooks Reed 3) Senior DT Earl Mitchell
Strength of the defense: Pass defense, edge pressure, overall team speed

They appear to be returning many of their players. Their secondary looks great with Devin Ross and Robert Golden. A weakness is apparently the size of the front seven and their run D. That article does a great in depth analysis of the D. What do you guys think?

When I hear "weakness is run D" that makes me happy. It works in perfectly with one of our strengths.

HydroTech: Devin Ross is still around? Seems like he's been around forever.

What's interesting about Arizona's defense is that they were 3rd in the Pac-10 last year for yards allowed per game at 313. But they were tied for 5th in the Pac-10 (with Oregon State) for yards allowed per play at 5.0 yards allowed per play. In other words, their defense wasn't the strongest lock-down defense in the Pac-10 given that they were only 5th for yards allowed per play, but the defense as a whole did a good job of limiting the offense's plays per game thus keeping down their average yards allowed per game. Since they're returning so many players with experience on defense, I wouldn't be too surprised to see these numbers get better. While I'm not sure that Arizona's defense will be as good as Cal's defense, it certainly will be a fairly tough defense.

TwistNHook: So, how do you guys see this one ending up?

I think that Arizona's D will be solid, but their O will take a step back without key players like Mike Thomas and Willie Tuitama. They still have Gronk, but, at home especially, I think we can handle him. I think Cal will win this, but it won't be a blowout. 3-2.

Avinash: I sometimes wonder if you know which sport we're covering.

TwistNHook: As v. Diamondbacks, interleague play, right?

Poll

How will Cal do against Arizona?

Big win

91 votes

Close win

44 votes

Close loss

9 votes

Big loss

2 votes

146 votes | Poll has closed

Previewing the Season: Arizona Wildcats

jtlight — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Nick Ut - AP

What does Mike Stoops do? Lose football games.

Browse more photos »

Due to a malfunctioning computer, we're changing the order of these previews. ASU will run tomorrow.

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the toughest teams to figure out going into this season. While the Pac-10 media pegged them for 8th in the conference, other sources (most notably Phil Steele) have them in the upper half of the conference.

And this disagreement is all due to one man: Mike Stoops. Life under Stoops in Tucson has been mind-numbingly inconsistent. After a couple years of growing pains in which Stoops had to deal with the hangover from the John Mackovic era, Stoops teams have shown improvement, at least on a play-to-play level. When Matt Hinton looked at the Wildcats earlier this offseason, he has noted that in almost every year under Stoops, the team he improved in yards per play differential, yards per game differential, and overall points per game differential. And in many cases, these statistics show just how much a team is improving (or regressing) better than win-loss.

But despite that improvement, Arizona was consistently hit with head scratching losses. While the Wildcats have played USC tougher than almost any team in the conference, they have lost to New Mexico and Stanford two years in a row. Every major milestone Stoops reaches is countered with defeat.

This will be a very important year for the Wildcats. They have a talented and marginally experienced defense, but lose a lot on the offensive side of the ball. While Stoops has earned a season with his young team, if Arizona significantly regresses this year, in 2010 they will be calling for his head again.

This year, Oregon gets Arizona at the end of the season, and must go to Tucson, where things have not gone so well over the past few season (for either Oregon team). While Oregon should be a superior team, Arizona has always played well at home, especially against the upper half of the Pac-10, and no matter Arizona's standing at the time, the Ducks will be in for a tough game.

Oregon Offense vs. Arizona Defense:

The Arizona defense starts up front with the defensive line, which returns their entire two-deep. However, this was a unit that allowed opponents to average over 4 yards per rush, and averaged less than 2 sacks per game. The line will be backed up by linebackers who will be good, but not outstanding. While this unit is bound to improve in rush defense, this will likely be marginal at best.

The strength of the Arizona D will be their secondary. They return one of the top CBs in the conference in Devin Ross. While they must replace the other cornerback, they return talented and experienced safeties in Robert Golden and Cam Nelson. I expect this unit to continue their production from last season, when they were a top 25 passing defense that intercepted 16 balls and held opponents to a passer rating of 106.70.

However, I don't think that they will be able to stop an Oregon offense that will hopefully be very experienced and running like a well-oiled machine by the 11th game of the season. When the Oregon offense was "on" over the last two years, the Arizona defense had no chance to stop it. Oregon did what it wanted when it wanted. Unfortunately, injuries, mistakes, and mental implosions hurt the Ducks, but on this side of the ball, Oregon will have control. If they don't fall apart, they should score 40+ points.

Oregon Defense vs. Arizona Offense:

While the Arizona Offense will lose a decent amount of production due to offensive line losses and the loss of Willie Tuitama, they return the best tight end in the nation in Rob Gronkowski. I'm sure most of you remember last season, where Oregon was simply unable to guard him. He's big, fast, and catches everything. While he has been out with a strained back, he will end up being the go-to receiver for new QB Matt Scott (who appears to have won the QB competition with Nick Foles). They also have a number of talented receivers, led by Delashaun Dean, who has had two solid seasons so far.

However, while I think that Arizona passing game will not see a lot of regression due to the amount of playmakers, the offense as a whole hinges on the success of the running game. Last season was so successful for Arizona because they averaged over 158 ypg rushing, which led to their best offense in years. Arizona brought in Sonny Dykes from Texas Tech before the 2007 season, and while that led to instant improvement accross the board, the true success was seen when the passing game was complemented by a strong running game.

While the Wildcats return RB Nic Grigsby, who was great last season, they lose a large amount on the offensive line. For Arizona to succeed, especially against the Ducks, Arizona must run the ball effectively. One of the reasons they were so strong last year against Oregon is that they ran for 199 yards on the ground, the second most Oregon gave up all year. While Arizona will likely still be good on the ground, a good defense should be able to make them one dimensional, and with a new QB, that will not lead to long term success for the offense.

Conclusion:

I don't believe Arizona will regress to 8th in the Pac-10 this year, and they have the talent to surprise a few teams. However, they will likely be marked by maddening inconsistency, and they will lose some games that were winnable.

Oregon has a lot of advantages in this game. They have an offense that Arizona will have a lot of difficultly stopping. They will likely be able to make Arizona rely on the pass, while getting pressure on a young QB. I think that Arizona will be able to keep it close for a while, but Oregon will run away with the game in the 4th quarter, as Oregon is a deeper, more talented team, and will force Arizona to rely on an inexperienced passing game.

If the Underdog Shoe Fits

Smooty — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 19:06:35 -0000

Well, we won't have to deal with any Sports Illustrated jinx this year.

SI released its rankings of all 120 FBS college football teams. Arizona checked in at number 70. Only Washington and Washington State were ranked lower than the Cats.

Normally, these rankings mean nothing to me. Pre-season rankings are essentially a regurgitation of last year's final poll, with a little adjustment. Ranking all 120 teams is also no easy task, and none of it matters once the games start. Also, it was have expected for all the national publications to be down on Arizona this year. Tuitama, Thomas and Britton are all gone.

But, really? Below ASU, UCLA, and Stanford? What about BYU, who Arizona dismantled in the Las Vegas Bowl last season? They came in at 22.

Cue every underdogs favorite cliche: that's why they play the games.

Bear Down.

Wildcats Position by Position Breakdown: Quarterbacks

joenewby4040 — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 06:00:10 -0000

ARIZONA WILDCATS PREVIEW 2009

The Arizona Wildcats come into 2009 with searing momentum from their 2008 campaign in which they went 8-5 and beat BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl 31-21 on December 20, 2008 for its first bowl win in 10 years. Coach Mike Stoops will look to build on that season in 2009 and got off to a good start by signing 24 solid football players for 2009. This year the Cats will try to move on in 2009 after losing one of the best receivers in school history (Mike Thomas), the loss of one of the best QB’s in school history (Willie Tuitama) and one of the best OL in school history (Eben Britton). Fortunately, with the solid recruiting by Stoops in the past few years, the Cats will look to re-load and not re-build.

QUARTERBACKS

The loss of Willie Tuitama is definitely a blow to the offensive production of the Cats. Tuitama, the all time leading passer in school history, adapted to Sonny Dykes spread offense installed in 2007 and excelled immensely. The Cats will look to either Matt Scott (Sophomore) or Nick Foles (Sophomore) to fill the shoes. There have been some rumors out of Tucson from the voluntary workouts that Bryson Beirne (Sophomore) is also in the mix. Tough luck for Mike Stoops to have three quarterbacks battling for the top spot. Foles and Scott got the majority of the snaps during the spring but I would gladly accept more competition from Beirne this summer and hope it pushes all three of them to excel to their maximum potential.

(Matt Scott. Does mobility rule in Tucson? We'll see this fall)

Nick Foles is a bigger quarterback at 6’5" and 235 lbs. His arm is stronger than Scott’s but his mobility is less. Foles has had a troubled college career, starting out committing to Arizona State out of high school, only to drop his commit and go to Michigan State. His tenure at Michigan State didn’t last long and Foles transferred to Arizona in 2008. Foles’ big arm would be the reason he would take the spot. His mobility would be the reason he would watch from the sidelines.

(Worst jersey I've ever seen. Go Maroons)

Bryson Beirne is a sophomore from Honolulu, Hawaii. He is 6'3" and 225 lbs. He contended in 2008 with Matt Scott for the backup role and fell short. He displayed bursts of potential throughout 2008. This year he is the obvious long shot to start for the Cats in 2009 but there is word out of Tucson that he is competing hard and could push for some reps to start the season. He did play in two games in 2008 against Idaho and Washington, so he does have some experience.

(2009 spoiler?)

Matt Scott is the smaller of the two front runners standing at 6’3" and 190 lbs. Obviously, his mobility is far superior to Foles. Scott was the back up for Tuitama last year and played in 6 games in 2006. His ability to run creates an opportunity for Sonny Dykes to design plays which get Scott outside of the tackles and into the open field for either a run or pass. Look for this matchup to heat up in August. If Beirne gets in the mix, things could get crazy and fast.

The Cats recruited Richardson Morrison in 2009. He hails from Royse City, Texas and is 6'0" and 180 lbs. He was an absolute stud for his high school in 2008 and was recruited by Mark Stoops and Sonny Dykes. Dykes obviously thinks that he will fit the system and recruited him directly. Look for Morrison to redshirt this season in order to learn the plays and get some experience in practice.