SB Nation - Tracy Slocum

Inside The Numbers: Arizona Edition

TwistNHook — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:00:17 -0000

about 1 month ago: Arizona's starting quarterback Nick Foles (8) is dragged down after a short gain by Washington States' Casey Hamlett (96) during the first half of a NCAA college football game at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/John Miller)

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As a Cal fan, we live in abject fear of pretty much everything. Much needed stadium upgrades bring year long battles. Easy victories over a team like Murray State turn horrifyingly close. Nothing comes easy for Cal fans.

Which is why I am in full on panic mode over Arizona. For years, they were a Pac10 punching bag. But those days are over. No longer does it look like Coach Stoops is in dire need of Activia. Former QB Willie Tuitama may be slinging chicken wings, but AirRaid Arizona hasn't stopped slinging the ball all over the field. After the jump take a look at some key Arizona stats and realize that Halloween might be a 2 week long process for Cal this year. GO BEARS!

TwistNHook: Well, let's take a horrifying look through the AirRaid Offense! First, their passing offense

Situation	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Int	TD	Rating	Long	1st	15+	25+
All Plays	8	282	190	67.4	1978	8	13	135.84	52	92	42	11
1st Half	8	135	95	70.4	1044	3	6	145.56	43	47	25	6
2nd Half/OT	8	147	95	64.6	934	5	7	126.91	52	45	17	5
1st Quarter	7	53	39	73.6	465	1	4	168.43	43	18	9	5
2nd Quarter	8	82	56	68.3	579	2	2	130.77	25	29	16	1
3rd Quarter	8	88	53	60.2	557	2	4	123.85	52	27	11	3
4th Quarter	8	59	42	71.2	377	3	3	131.48	37	18	6	2

Well, thank god we have a Defense that can shut down opposing QBs with strong amounts of pressure and tight coverage. Oh. wait.

That looks very similar to OSU last week. Nearly 68% completiong percentage. The 135 rating, I think is brought down by the amount of interceptions compared to TDs. 8-13. Not as good a ratio as Arizona probably wants. It is also brought down by a really random 3rd quarter rating of 123.

Like OSU last week, Arizona seems to get offf to a great start, completing nearly 74% of their passes in the 1st quarter. We definitely need to watch out for Nick Foles and their AirRaid Offense.

Avinash: Here is some more information on their passing offense:

1st Down	8	111	75	67.6	774	3	5	135.60	52	25	14	5
2nd Down	8	102	68	66.7	723	2	4	135.23	37	38	19	4
3rd Down	8	62	43	69.4	443	2	3	138.90	43	26	8	2
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	8	14	9	64.3	86	0	1	139.46	30	7	2	1
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	8	22	16	72.7	175	1	2	160.46	43	12	2	1
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	7	15	8	53.3	57	1	0	71.92	13	3	0	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	7	11	10	90.9	125	0	0	186.37	22	4	4	0
4th Down	7	7	4	57.1	38	1	1	121.31	23	3	1	0

I'm getting a disgusting feeling of deja vu reading these stats.

The only thing that gives me pause is that Foles throws more picks than Canfield, so maybe he'll make a mistake on one of his short reads or thread one into traffic. Other than that, I'm hopelessly glum about this part of the game.

TwistNHook: Here's hoping the rushing stats aren't as deadly as the passing stats:

Situation	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	1st	10+	20+
All Plays	8	295	1611	5.46	15	94	84	49	13
1st Half	8	140	744	5.31	8	58	39	25	6
2nd Half/OT	8	155	867	5.59	7	94	45	24	7
1st Quarter	8	66	374	5.67	5	30	20	14	3
2nd Quarter	8	74	370	5.00	3	58	19	11	3
3rd Quarter	8	68	361	5.31	4	94	20	11	2
4th Quarter	8	87	506	5.82	3	57	25	13	5

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME?????? 5.46 yards a carry! Ai! Now, Cal has been able to stop the run fairly well, including holding Quizz down. But it tends to come at the expense of the pass D. Which, given everything we've seen so far from Arizona ain't good.

Avinash: Grigsby might not play So that probably means we get to deal with Antolin again. And he slashed through our defense last season when it was actually good!

1st Down	8	150	774	5.16	7	94	24	24	5
2nd Down	8	91	447	4.91	1	24	32	15	2
3rd Down	8	46	317	6.89	6	58	24	8	4
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	8	25	124	4.96	5	43	16	2	2
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	5	9	92	10.22	0	58	5	3	1
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	3	3	9	3.00	0	5	0	0	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	7	9	92	10.22	1	57	3	3	1
4th Down	4	8	73	9.13	1	34	4	2	2

What kind of horrifying stats are these? 5 yards on 1st down, 5 yards on 2nd down, 7 yards on 3rd down? Nearly a first down on 3rd and LONG?

How does this happen to us? I thought we faced all the best offenses. As it turns out we've faced only 3 through 5. The top two are the next two weeks. Arizona 13th, Furd 14th Death.

TwistNHook: Here is the Arizona Pass D.

Situation	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Int	TD	Rating	Long	1st	15+	25+
All Plays	8	257	150	58.4	1621	8	11	119.24	64	74	35	12
1st Half	8	123	74	60.2	770	4	6	122.34	45	38	19	5
2nd Half/OT	8	134	76	56.7	851	4	5	116.41	64	36	16	7
1st Quarter	8	61	33	54.1	344	4	2	99.18	30	20	8	2
2nd Quarter	8	62	41	66.1	426	0	4	145.14	45	18	11	3
3rd Quarter	8	53	32	60.4	374	3	1	114.57	47	14	9	4
4th Quarter	8	81	44	54.3	477	1	4	117.62	64	22	7	3

I'm really getting tired of crying at the sight of stats. Just a few more weeks of this, right? The Arizona Pass D is OK. Giving up nearly 60% completion. But only allowing 119 QB rating against. Notice how their opponents have far more throws in the 4th quarter than the other quarters. Signs of Arizona being up with their opponents just throwing and throwing and throwing? Leading to artificially lower stats for opposing QBs? Except that the worst quarter is the first quarter when the game is still very much in doubt.

So, basically their passing offense is great and their passing D ain't half bad. This is like facing a better version of OSU.

Avinash: Although Arizona's ranked 37th in passing defense, this was before they played inert UCLA and Wazzu. Any team's numbers would look better after playing those two teams. Oh wait, unless you're Cal. Can I dip my face in freshly-poured concrete? Here are more numbers regarding the Arizona pass D.

1st Down	8	94	56	59.6	605	2	3	119.90	47	23	15	6
2nd Down	8	86	55	64.0	650	1	5	144.30	64	27	15	4
3rd Down	8	72	37	51.4	349	5	3	91.96	29	23	5	2
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	5	12	7	58.3	46	1	0	73.86	20	6	1	0
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	8	26	12	46.2	142	1	0	84.34	29	11	2	1
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	7	9	3	33.3	28	0	1	96.13	12	2	0	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	7	25	15	60.0	133	3	2	107.09	25	4	2	1
4th Down	2	5	2	40.0	17	0	0	68.56	11	1	0	0

These stats could suggest several things. Arizona's defense plays pretty well on the ball and could be tough for Kevin Riley, who seems to excel throwing against weak coverage zones or in the holes as opposed to in traffic. It also suggests they're opportunistic turnover wise and like to prey on the ball when given the chance, especially on 3rd down. These stats could also mean zero since Riley might be running for his life against an Arizona defense that has the third most sacks in the Pac-10 and could make mincemeat of an offensive line that couldn't block the decaying hobos in People's Park.

TwistNHook: Can we get some good news? Some good at all? Let's take a look at these Arizona rush D numbers:

Situation	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	1st	10+	20+
All Plays	8	219	768	3.51	9	56	43	22	3
1st Half	8	120	472	3.93	5	56	22	12	3
2nd Half/OT	8	99	296	2.99	4	19	21	10	0
1st Quarter	8	67	265	3.96	3	56	13	7	1
2nd Quarter	8	53	207	3.91	2	43	9	5	2
3rd Quarter	8	52	128	2.46	1	19	9	5	0
4th Quarter	7	47	168	3.57	3	19	12	5	0

And that's a fat no. Well, it's a skinny no, really. It's an mediocre no. Because these D numbers aren't terrible, but they aren't ASU levels, either. Of course, our running game just took a fairly large hit with that horrific accident to Jahvid Best. That said, I still feel like we can run against this team. I know De Oski is going to have to step up here, but their first half numbers are closer to 4 than 3.5. So, if we can try to establish the running game in the 1st half, hopefully that'll open up for more scoring.

We really don't know what this Best-less running O will look like. Last time we saw that was the ASU game last year. Vereen ran well, but stalled in the 2nd half. Tracy Slocum was in the dog house and never spelled Vereen. Hopefully, De Oski can do what Slocum wasn't allowed to do and keep Vereen fresh. Here's hoping!

Avinash: ASU has the 6th best rushing defense in the country in terms of yards per game. Arizona has the 11th.

1st Down	8	114	444	3.89	6	17	13	14	0
2nd Down	8	67	206	3.07	2	37	13	4	1
3rd Down	8	33	117	3.55	1	56	14	4	2
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	7	16	51	3.19	0	17	11	1	0
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	6	7	-22	-3.14	0	3	0	0	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	4	6	38	6.33	1	56	2	2	1
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	3	4	50	12.50	0	43	1	1	1
4th Down	4	5	1	0.20	0	5	3	0	0

Meh. I guess I'll take those numbers. Those might be enough to let loose Vereen if we can somehow get a passing game going.

Really, I reserve no hope for this game. It was 24-7 after three last week, I can see it being 48-14 after three this week. At least I'll finally get to experience what a Holmoe era crowd was like for half an hour! I got a small sample this week, maybe this'll be the real deal.

TwistNHook: It's not as much fun as you might think.

Poll

How is Cal going to do against Arizona?

Big Cal victory

11 votes

Close Cal victory

40 votes

Close Cal loss

30 votes

Big Cal loss

90 votes

171 votes | Poll has closed

Meet The Bears: California Golden Blogs Preps Us On Cal

Cory Williams — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:32:43 -0000

Our friends over at California Golden Blogs asked us to exchange Q&A's in the buildup to Saturday. ASUBoyd answered their questions, and they will be posted on their blog later today are now up for your viewing pleasure here.

I penned these questions hoping to better understand our Pac-10 foes. The answers given may not surprise you, but this has turned out to be California Golden Bears 101. And you know we love college courses here at House Of Sparky (at least, we love the girls in our college courses).

A big thanks goes out to TwistNHook, Yellow Fever, and ragnarok for their great responses.

1. What do you chalk up the loss against Maryland to, the jet lag? Unfamiliarity with an ACC squad playing on their home turf? Maryland being a plain good football squad?

Well, the genuine answer to this question is that Maryland dominated the trenches. They continuously got pressure on Riley until they moved into a more preventative D (when our passing attack started to take off). Further, Jahvid Best and Co. had no holes to run through.

On the other side, they ran all over us and Chris Turner had a lot of time in the pocket. That's the simple answer. Win the trench battle and you win the game. Maryland was winning the trench battle for most of it and was dominant for most of it, plain and simple.

As to whether Cal's OLine and DLine under performed due to time changes or humidity, well, it's hard to say. The players themselves won't admit it, as I doubt they'd point to excuses like those, but I can tell you the humidity out there was brutal, and I was just standing around in the bleachers, not trying to play football. For whatever reason, our players sure did look more sluggish than I've seen them in a long time, and that probably contributed to losing the battle up front.

Of course, none of this is meant to take away from Maryland, who is actually a pretty good team and who played a great game. Cal could have won this matchup, but by no means should have won.

2. Losing Jahvid Best is a blow to your running game. How will his absence affect your game plan, and who will fill his shoes on Saturday?

Well, luckily for Cal, there is some depth at RB. Shane Vereen has definitely shown ability and even 3rd stringer Tracy Slocum has some of the skillz that are necessary to pay part of the billz. Certainly, having Best up in this bitch is better than not having Best up in this or really any other bitch. But Vereen can produce.

One problem to note is a key injury to OLineman Chris Guarnero. He had been playing very well from what we understand and is now out for the season. So, losing Best AND a solid OLineman? Could be rough.

3. Kevin Riley vs. Nate Longshore. Longshore was renowned early in his career, and he lit up ASU in 2006 in Berkeley. Now, he rides the pine as Riley tosses the rock. Who is the better quarterback, and did Longshore get treated badly this season?

The problem is that nobody really knows who the better QB is. Many people scream endlessly over this topic, but we don't watch the practices and rarely have advanced game film sessions. Both bring different skills to the table. Many people were excited by the prospect of Riley. He suffered from Backup QB-itis, wherein people love him a ton, because they haven't seen him a lot. Not to say anything negative about Riley, but now that more people have seen him, people are moderately less enamored with him. This is just natural, because no QB can be perfect.

At times this year, Longshore has appeared worse, and at times, he has appeared better. So, neither QB right now is out-playing the other. Honestly, though, I think either QB will play a good (though not great) game, and there's probably 4 or 5 other Pac-10 teams that wish they could have our QB leftovers right about now.

4. Tell us about one Cal defensive player we may not know.

Well, we don't know who you do and do not know on the Cal D. BUT, you might not know the name of Syd'Quan Thompson. He is having a great season as both a punt returner (named special teams player of the week last week) and as a DB. People don't throw his way. He's a shutdown corner out there.

Now, ASU is apparently having some problems running the ball and is relying on the passing game a lot. This means there should be a good showdown between the ASU O and the Cal defensive backfield. SydGOD will be prominent in this battle. And if ASU decides not to throw towards SydGOD at all, they will try the other corner Darian Hagan. He's young and has a lot less experience than SydQuan, but is still improving each week. This will be a good test for him.

5. Losing Lavelle Hawkins and DeSean Jackson to the NFL this year really put the hurt on your receiving corp. Who has picked up the slack in their stead?

Unfortunately, nobody.

But at least TE Cameron Morrah has shown some catch passing abilities. Unfortunately, he's not the blocker that Craig Stevens (now on the Titans) was last year. Other than kickoffs, our receiving corp is probably the weakest area of the team.

6. Speaking of DeSean, what do you think of his performance as an Eagle? Or the touchdown that wasn't in Dallas, where he threw it behind himself while he was still outside the end zone?

As an Eagles fan, I'm not terribly bothered by any of this. It's worth remembering that the only other highly drafted wideouts during the Reid era were Freddie Mitchell and Billy McMullen. Now while I can empathize with Freddie given that I love my hands as well, it would be a gross understatement to say that either of the two was lighting the world on fire.

So for him to start off with two 100-yard games, even if he hasn't kept that pace up, earns him more than a little bit of slack in my book. As specifically regarding the touchdown that wasn't, that honestly didn't bother me much. It would have bothered me more if they hadn't scored on the next play, but I was pretty sure they would. It's just an amusing footnote to me.

And hey, I did get a picture with Reuben Frank of SI.com with my new Eagles DeSean jersey at Eagles training camp this year, and he told me it was the first one he'd seen. That is, before reading the back of my jersey he thought my number 10 jersey was for Koy Detmer. Koy Detmer?!?!? As if!

7. Lastly, what is your prognostication on the direction of the Cal season? What will your record be, and what bowl (if any) will you end up in?

At this point, nobody knows anything about where Cal is. Our RB is hurt. We dont know who the QB is. Lets just throw our hands up in the air and say National Championship loss to Vanderbilt.

About as likely to happen as any other reality, it would seem.