SB Nation - Spencer Paysinger

The Enemy of My Enemy, Part I: The Rose Bowl

Bama Hawkeye — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:15:09 -0000

As we begin preparing for the year in which the Big Ten shocks the college football world by winning five of its seven bowls, let's learn about the opponents. Oh sure, we could turn to the fans of our opponents and ask them questions about their beloved cats, birds, and bees. But this site was founded upon the idea of rivals. That's why we're talking with our opponents' rivals. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As we look at the Rose Bowl, AndyPanda of the outstanding Oregon State blog, Building the Dam, was kind enough to answer these questions that we had about the hated Oregon Ducks.

1. What schemes worked best for you on defense against Oregon's motion Pistol, spread sweeps, and zone read attack?

The key to contending with Coach Chip Kelley's spread option read offense is to play assignment football, and maintain gap and assignment discipline, and do it all night long. A traditional style pro defense. You cannot over-pursue, and one step can be too much, as the speed Oregon has will run into, or cut back thru, any gap a mistake opens. The Ducks' offense is predicated on option reads, and Jeremiah Masoli is a master at quick recognition and decision making.

Masoli isn't an exceptional thrower, but he is good enough to capitalize on an assignment error, as was evidenced when OSU's James Dockery over-committed on Jeff Maehl, and there was no safety support. The result was an immediate over the top 73 yard touchdown.

And while Masoli is rightly known for his running ability, his reads can just as easily result in someone else being the star. With cornerback Tim Clark already out with a broken leg, all conference Keaton Kristick missed only one play with a tweaked wrist. Masoli immediately sent LaMichael James thru where Kristick and Clark would have been for a 52 yard touchdown.

Those two plays, one break down, and one where a personnel vulnerability existed, were the difference in the game, producing over a quarter of the Ducks' total yards, and underscoring how important it is to maintain discipline against Oregon's offense on every play.

2. What's going to happen when Ohio State's (C) Michael Brewster (296 lbs), (RG), Bryant Browning (312 lbs), (LG) Justin Boren (315 lbs), (LT) J.B. Shugarts (298 lbs), and (RT) Jim Cordle (297 lbs) line up against Oregon's (LDT) Brandon Bair (250 lbs) (RDT) Blake Ferras (290 lbs), (RDE) Kenny Rowe (230 lbs), and (LDE) Will Tukuafu (272 lbs)? That's an average of 43 pounds difference at each position. Do the Buckeyes get burnt, or does Oregon get crushed?

A variety of blitzes and stunts will happen. The Oregon linebacking crew of Eddie Pleasant, Casey Matthews, and Spencer Paysinger are fast enough that they can come from anywhere, and if an offensive line releases to pick up the blitz, Tukuafu is strong enough, and Rowe is fast enough, to recover despite being initially stopped, and still make the play.

A sustained power running game can work against the Ducks, as Stanford demonstrated, but it must start with an effective passing game that pushes back Oregon's back seven. The key to overcoming the Duck defense is to prevent them from running toward the line of scrimmage, which allows them to capitalize on their speed.

3. The Beavers put 30 points up on the Ducks in the first 35 minutes of the game. The final 25 minutes saw the Beavers only get a field goal. How was OSU able to dominate the Ducks early, and what did Oregon do late to turn the tide?

Early on, Oregon St. quarterback Sean Canfield was on, and by completing a number of passes, was able to keep the Oregon defense backpedaling much of the time, not attacking the line of scrimmage.

What Oregon did in the second half was keep the ball away from Oregon St. The Ducks are known for being a quick strike offense that doesn't need a time of possession advantage to generate points and wins, but few teams will win a firefight against the Rodgers brothers and Canfield. Against the Beavers, the Ducks played defense with their offense.

Oregon knew the best way to curb the Rodgers are to have them standing on the sidelines as much of the time as possible. With a boost in their power running game from LeGarrett Blount, Oregon held the ball for about 18 and a half of the last 26 minutes, and over 13 minutes in the last 17 and a half minutes. The Beavers only had one fourth quarter possession.

So limited in their number of opportunities, the weather, in the 20's, resulted in a couple of dropped balls off receivers' hands, resulting in a field goal instead of a probable touchdown, and another stalled drive. And the difference in the game when the Ducks were able to keep the Beavers' offense off the field for over six minutes at the end of the game. Both Kenjon Barner and Masoli won individual matchups, where the OSU defense was in position to make the play, and one on one, just got beat. The Ducks converted three fourth downs in the game, two on the final drive.

4. Much of the rest of the country looks at Oregon as having fashion models, not football players. Has the Oregon fan base embraced the Phil Knight-ification of their football team, or would they rather focus on the game?

The Oregon fan base loves Uncle Phil, who epitomizes the high dollar image most of them aspire to. And if any aspect of the image in any way causes a distraction of any sort, that's just another advantage they gain.

Admit it. You wish he went to your school.

5. What can Buckeye fans do in advance of the game to most annoy Oregon fans?

Remind them of the Stanford and Boise St. games, where they were physically dominated, then talk about how good Washington is going to be soon. It doesn't matter if Washington actually will be good or not; they hate the Huskies, almost as much as the Huskies hate them. Or talk about how college football games should be "dry" events. [ed. note: The Rivalry, Esq. does not and cannot endorse dry sporting events. We encourage Buckeye fans to use the other recommended methods of criticism]

Thank you again to AndyPanda of Building the Dam. We wish the Beavers the best of luck in beating the hell into BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The Autzen Massacre: What Went Wrong With Cal's Offense in Oregon?

Avinash — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:00:02 -0000

More photos » by Don Ryan - AP

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A few weeks ago after opening week, Smart Football wrote this post about what makes a football offense terrible, and this really stuck out to me.

- Line play, in every phase: It’s a cliche, but it’s still undervalued. The most important coach on the staff is the line coach. I didn’t say most important assistant, I said coach. The head coach gets things organized, brings in the boosters, the OC calls the plays, but the line coach makes the whole operation go. If you’d like to know how Boise State was able to stymie Oregon’s fancy spread, the answer is simple: they whipped Oregon’s line, which was starting four new guys. Similarly, with all these spread offenses you see a lot who want to throw the ball, but they don’t understand pass protection or focus enough on it. There’s both a "who" and a "how," and awful offenses can do neither. Runningbacks are nice, but beyond Heisman-winning breakaway speed, the run game won’t go if guys can’t block. (Note that with modern zone plays, it is not always about driving guys off the ball, it is about technique and leverage. This only increases the need for good coaching on the line.) And even the most high-flying offenses have been grounded by a lack of pass protection.

After extensively reviewing the gametape of the possessions when Cal's offense could've made a difference in the game (i.e. before the score was 32-3), I'd say that's about an accurate description about what happened yesterday. We all think Jahvid Best can be otherworldly in the open field, but if his O-line doesn't block for him, he is mortal, and so are the Bears.

If you just want the bullet point details instead of the gruesome summary of what I saw, just read below and move on with your day. You will be much happier not clicking after the jump.

The coach I would be questioning the most isn't Andy Ludwig or Bob Gregory, but Steve Marshall. Oregon's front seven played physical and Cal's offensive line played soft and slow, and it showed, all game long.
The Bears were unprepared for some of the angles Nick Aliotti threw at them in terms of blitzes, but often it was just straight man fronts overwhelming the O-line.
The playcalling was occasionally headscratching, only because it became terribly obvious by down and distance (which can't always be controlled) and formation (which can be controlled) near the end when Cal was going to throw and when Cal was going to run.
I'm not sure Matt Summers-Gavin should've seen action, much less started this game. He looked ineffective for much of the game.
He wasn't the only one though. Every starting O-linemen had their shares of whiffs or weak blocks, mainly in man but also in zone. Cheadle, Guarnero, Schwartz, Tepper all struggled.
Will Ta'ufo'ou's presence was missed. Brian Holley played well for us the first three weeks, but his inexperience showed.
The tight ends blocked well. So that's good.
Marvin Jones did not. For a guy who's always being signalled in to block, that's bad.
Jahvid Best's got one big issue to work out before he plans on being an NFL back. But also I'm not sure if Ludwig utilized him well at all.
Cal's pass offense did not exploit the zone holes, partly due to playcalling, partly due to protection issues.
Cal was in a lot of long yardage situations. They had one 3rd and short, a few 3rd and 5s, but they were in a lot of obvious passing down areas which had a lot of Ducks dropping into coverage.
I was really surprised at how conservative we were with our gameplan. Other than that cross route Tucker dropped, the Bears went downfield a handful of times, but a lot of the throws were very short.
Any play when the O-line played well, the skill players made a mistake, and vice-versa. That's a recipe for offensive disaster. It's like Tedford said Sunday night: "Typically, it was one thing, one guy. It really becomes evident, it’s just so important that 11 guys play together. You have 10 guys doing the right thing and one guy doesn’t do his thing . . . it’s a lot of opportunities we didn’t capitalize on.

Although Kevin Riley made several throwing errors, Verran Tucker dropped a big pass and made a stupid penalty, these things worry me far less than what has become the glaring weakness in our 2009 Golden Bears. How our offensive line adjusts from this game will determine how the rest of our season goes.

After the jump, here's my brutal play-by-play notes and "analysis". I put "analysis" in quotes because I'm a football novice and probably don't understand the nuances of football blocking techniques. I just report what I see. If you see things I get blatantly wrong, correct me in the comments. Bad knowledge is just as dangerous as no knowledge.

What else do you think went wrong with Cal's offense in Oregon, and can it be corrected in time for USC?

First drive, after the kickoff fumble.

1st & 10, ORE 22, 14:56:
Cal Offense: Shotgun max protect, Vereen shifts from weak to strong
Oregon Defense: 4-3 under, seven drop back

Tepper slow to respond to snap; his man (Kenny Rowe) blows by him; note Rowe is not a typical DE, more of a converted linebacker

2nd & 18, ORE 30, 14:20
Offense: Ace slot right, back strong
Defense: Nickel? Five drop back agains the receivers

Cal has SEVEN people in pass protection (including Best & the TE) on four (FOUR!) and Riley STILL gets pressured at the end. This time it's Schwartz's man.

3rd & 18, ORE 30, 14:10
Offense: Ace slot right, back strong
Defense: Nickel? Five drop back against the receivers

Tough throw by Riley to make in all that coverage. A screen would've been nice here considering Oregon was dropping lots of men into coverage.

Second drive, Cal up 3-0 in the first quarter

1st & 10, CAL 41, 13:08
Offense: Ace, two receivers right, two tight ends shift from right to left
Defense: Nickel of some sort

Good blocking to the left to give Best room to run to the right

2nd & 4, CAL 47, 12:38

Offense: I-Form, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Not clear.

Tepper pulls from the left tackle spot, not really sure if Holley had trouble blocking here

1st & 10, ORE 48, 12:12

Offense: I-Form, fullback offset weakside, tight end to the left, Riley audibling?
Defense: Playing to defend run, eight people in the box

This feels like a play where they were trying to run something off-tackle or sweep. Best kind of stumbles here, hard to decide whether he could've made it to the edge. The redshirt freshman Boyett does nicely filling Ward's role as safety trying to plug gap.

2nd & 6, ORE 44, 11:33

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Looks like a 4-3 under, but Aliotti plays a lot of nickel with an extra safety

Uhh, Summers-Gavin, when you have no one to block, and no one's coming to blitz, might be nice to try and help your linemen. Guarnero loses Ferras, who flushes Riley out of the pocket and into a throwaway.

3rd & 6, ORE 44, 11:25

Offense: Shotgun spread, two halfbacks (Best & Vereen), Vereen goes in motion to the left
Defense: Oregon rushes 3, drops 8, and still had Verran wide open on the cross route.

Crossing route, pump fake. Pass might've been a little ahead and a little high for Tucker, still could've made the catch.

Third drive, Tied at 3 in the first quarter

1st & 10, CAL 49, 5:45

Offense: Shotgun 2 TE set (Best lined up a little behind Riley)
Defense: Blitz from the weakside

I'm not sure if Best was a decoy here on the swing, but the receiver screen to Ross is thrown maybe a step too early and the throw takes awhile to get there. Summers-Gavin whiffs on a block downfield on the eventual tackler.

2nd & 8, ORE 49, 5:09

Offense: I-form, 2 WR right
Defense: Seven in the box, could've been a big play if the blocks were executed right.

Man blocking fail. Jones goes in motion to block. This is a mess to begin with. Guarnero loses his man again, forcing Holley to help, then Summers Gavin can't get on his man downfield either. Leaves two Ducks uncovered to make the tackle on Best.

3rd & 5, ORE 46, 4:30

Offense: Shotgun 2 RB, 3 WR
Defense: Oregon brings 5, maybe a LB blitz?

Pretty good pass protection, Riley didn't have to leave the pocket unless it was by design; he flushes out to find Ross on a comebacker

1st & 10, ORE 39, 4:00

Offense: Ace 2 WR left, TE right, someone else lined off the line behind TE
Defense: 4-3 under, 9 men bite! Single coverage downfield left!

It's Cheadle's turn to get owned. Cal sets up perfect play action, maybe Riley holds the ball a second too long before trying to hit the corner, but Cheadle can't let Brandon Bair brush him aside like that. Riley forced to run when he might've had single coverage downfield.

2nd & 8, ORE 37, 3:31

Offense: Shotgun spread
Defense: 4-3 under

Jones goes in motion to the left, goes out into the flat, Riley throws behind dangerously, spinning off his back foot. Again Tepper's failure to cover his man (although he does keep him from getting to Riley) might've made Kevin throw that one a little earlier than he'd have liked to avoid the sack, but still.

3rd & 8, ORE 37, 3:27

Offense: Shotgun 3 WR left, TE right
Defense: Nickel, but here's the first interesting wrink: 2 LBs come in showing blitz; one comes with the rush, the other stay backs (as well as a DT), maybe to defend against Best coming out of the backfield?

First call that really left me shaking my head. 3rd & 8 and you go with a WR screen? It might've worked except Summers-Gavin and Guarnero again with a mental error, only brushing at the tackle between them before going into downfield blocking instead of pushing him back; defender goes on to pummel Riley as he's throwing the ball, leading to a low throw and giving Ross no chance to escape Oregon defenders.

Fourth drive, Oregon up 11-3 in the second quarter

1st and 10, CAL 44, 14:46
Offense: Aces, TE left, 2 WR right, someone lined a little left & behind TE (I think it's another TE, can't be sure)
Defense: 4-3 over?

Again Jones comes in motion, decent blocking here and nice moves by Best.

2nd & 5, CAL 49, 14:08
Offense: Aces, 2 WR right. Again, someone lined behind TE to the right, TEs shift from right to left, second time I've seen that.

Summers Gavin with the false start. Sigh.

2nd & 10, CAL 44, 13:47
Offense: Wildcat, QB left, TE right, 2 WR right
Defense: 4-3 under

This might be the best offensive play of the game. O-linemen seal toward right has a lot of the Ducks D biting right, Best fakes and goes left, freezes up Paysinger, then picks up the 1st down with ease.

1st & 10, ORE 45, 13:18

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strongside, Tight ends behind each other,
Defense: NINE Ducks in the box.

This is on Cheadle, didn't execute his take down block well enough to knock Simi Toeaina out of the play, who gets up and makes the backfield tackle on Best. Holley also misses his assignment and Guarnero was a step too late on his downfield block. Three Duck defenders were in the vicinity of the Best before he hit the LoS.

2nd & 14, ORE 49, 12:38

Offense: I-form, Tightend lined left, WRs right
Defense: Corner is shading the running back all the way.

Riley audibles, again Jones comes in motion toward the line, again a run. Methinks Oregon is getting the hang of that motion thing, Talmadge Jackson reads it all the way, although the facemask penalty is what slowed Vereen from hitting the hole.

1st and 10, ORE 29, 12:13

Offense: I-form, TE lined left, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Eight in the box.

Second biggest play of the game for Cal's offense for me. This would've set up 1st down in the red zone. Perfect playfake with the box stacked, put Cal on one-on-one in the end zone, total interference. Tucker with the stupid taunting penalty negating it.

1st and 10, ORE 29, 12:03

Offense: I-form, 2 TE, WR right, again TE moves to the left, then TE from the right motions to th eleft
Defense: 4-3 over, EIGHT IN THE BOX

I replayed this one about ten times trying to figure out what happened. Someone was supposed to block out Paysinger. At first I thought it was supposed to be Guarnero. But it could also have been Summers-Gavin, who looked like he was pulling toward that hole but then sort of stayed behind Guarnero in some weird sort of block. (If you guys have ESPN360, go to 59:54, then watch the play develop, anyone know enough about the O-line blocking techniques to tell me what was designed?). If Paysinger gets blocked out Vereen probably goes 10-15 yards.

2nd and 12, ORE 31, 11:25

Offense: Wildcat formation, Riley lines up left, two WR right, TE right.
Defense: 4 man front, plus something else...

They run the same play they ran five plays ago, from the same formation. The difference is that the backside guard is pulling from the right (Cheadle) to try and seal the left side for Best to have the outside space. Looks good. Except Cheadle slips. Fuck. Then Holley tries to make the cut block on the defender Cheadle was supposed to take (when he probably should've aimed downfield at the faster incoming d-back) and whiffs. FUCK. And thus, the D-back Holley was supposed to take out finds Best and drags him down quickly.

3rd and 11, ORE 30, 11:08

Offense: Best moves from the backfield to the left side of the LoS, WRs right, TE left
Defense: Nickel

Questionable playcall #2: Why are we using a 3rd and 11 with a tight end screen? All these short passes make me wonder how much Ludwig trusts RIley's ability to throw the medium-range pass. The blocking here is slipshod, probably because no one has any idea who and where to block against defensive backs.

Fifth drive, the Riley/Best fumble

1st and 10, ORE 40, 10:00

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strong, TE right
Defense: looks like a 4-3 over

Most important play for Cal's offense. This play made me cringe, not only because of the fumble, but because if that handoff is executed right, Best is zooming through the crease, with a great chance to break through to the second level. Seven of the eight Ducks were blocked perfectly man-to-man, and Jones's guy would've been well out of the play. Still not happy that almost every time Jones has been motioned toward the line it's been a run, but a minor gripe compared to the fumble. This is the crucial play that has us standing between a tied game and the eventual rout.

Sixth drive, Oregon up 18-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 23, 8:13
Offense: Ace, two tight ends shift from left to right. Let me guess, it's going to be a run.
Defense: Predictably Oregon stacks eight in the box.

Yep, although there's good inside zone blocking this time opening the inside for Best to cut in and cut left. Great downblock by Anthony Miller coming from right to left. Secondary with good pursuit.

1st and 10, CAL 33, 7:50
Offense: Originally I-formation fullback offset strong, but Best moves into the slot.
Defense: 4-3 under

Best comes from the slot for the direct handoff (we saw a variation of this against EWU). Again Summers-Gavin has trouble blocking out his assignment, Brandon Bair, who gets off him rather easily and chases Best down to prevent further damage.

2nd and 7, CAL 36, 7:08
Offense: Aces, 2 WR left, 1 WR right, TE right
Defense: If I didn't know better, this looks like a 3-4...I must be seeing things.

More motion so the receiver from the right goes left into a trips formation. It got a first down because it recognized the pressure that was coming, but again, these screen passes make me wonder how much Ludwig trusts Riley's midrange game.

1st and 10, CAL 48, 6:45
Offense: I formation fullback offset strong, 2 WR right, TE right

Riley took way too many steps, didn't really look for alternatives other than deep, then launched that football into orbit. Great coverage by Glasper. Left tackle (Tepper? Not sure whot he number was) also allowed another defender to get a lick on Riley.

2nd and 10, CAL 48, 6:33
Offense: I formation, 2 WR right, TE left
Defense: Oregon brings nine in the box, anticipating rush. Try the pass again?

Again Marvin Jones goes in motion to the O-line, and maybe Oregon takes it as their cue that a running play is coming, since that's what happened on almost every receiver going into motion toward the O-line play. Jones makes a critical error not seeing the incoming linebacker, and he spends most of the play looking for someone to block. He's right behind you Marv, making the tackle on Vereen! Guarnero spends his time on this play blocking the ground from the sun, missing on two Duck defenders who help out on getting Vereen.

3rd and 9, CAL 49, 5:57
Offense: Shotgun, 3 WR right, 1 left
Defense: Oregon rushes three and drops eight into coverage.

Isn't the best way to break down this particular coverage zone to go toward the sidelines, like around that 8-10 yard receiver? Anyway, Riley telegraphs Anthony Miller, and that ball should've been picked.

Seventh drive, Oregon up 18-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 36, 3:45
Offense: Two WR right, WR left, FB goes in motion to make I-form fullback offset weak.

Riley audibles, Man blocking, Cheadle opens up a hole but can't hold onto his man and the defender closes it up!

2nd and 8, CAL 38, 3:08
Offense: Two WR right, WR left, TE right, RB weak
Defense: 4-3 over

Quick throw to Anthony Miller.

3rd and 2, CAL 44, 2:41
Offense: WR right, TE split on both side, I-form fullback offset strong
Defense: Oregon stacks 8 in the box

Quick snap, Holley whiffs on his outside block that allows the outside LB to rush up on Best in the backfield. Think we're missing Ta'ufo'ou right now?

Eighth drive, Oregon up 25-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 20, :59
Offense: Shotgun, RB weakside, 2 WR & TE right
Defense: WLB blitz, 4-3 over

This is on Best for not picking up Rowe rushing blindside, although Oregon did put two defenders close to Tepper, so Best probably felt he needed to help out. I'd worry about the guy unblocked first though. Still, shouldn't we be using Jahvid as a quick dumpoff receiver rather than putting him in pass protection?

2nd and 14, CAL 16, :20
Offense: I form, FB strongside, 2 WR split and TE right
Defense: 3 down linemen

Solid gain and blocking from Best. They're using the Bend but not Best D versus the Jet.

3rd and 5, CAL 25, :12
Offense: I form, FB strongside, 2 WR split and TE right

They're just running out the clock here.

Ninth drive, Oregon up 25-3 in the 3rd q

1st and 10, CAL 20, 15:00
Offense: Best weakside behind Riley in the shotgun, TE right, 2 WR split left
Defense: Could be a dime package

There's that sideline throw to break the zone! Luckily Riley threw that when he did, because Summers-Gavin again struggled to protect against his man.

1st and 10, ORE 30, 14:46
Offense: Shotgun, RB strong, TE right, 2 WR split left
Defense: Not sure

Corner read this right, had a chance at getting a pick.

2nd and 10, ORE 30, 14:41
Offense: Shotgun, RB weak, TE right
Defense: 3 down linemen, Strongside linebacker blitz picked up, it was the tackle Bair who came in untouched.

Oh my lord. Three down linemen and Riley still gets hit??? Tepper with a real weak effort containing the edge and Best is nowhere close to picking up that block. Not sure who the FAIL goes to there. I know Jahvid wants to go to the NFL, but so far I've seen two really questionable decisions by him in pass protection, and in the NFL running backs have to learn to pass protect to stay in the game.

3rd and 10, ORE 30, 14:36
Offense: Shotgun, 2 RB, 2 WR right
Defense: Again, 3 down linemen, 8 drop.

Riley hit AGAIN as he threw with three down linemen rushing; other players are in the box, but all of them drop. Inexcusable. Schwartz can't seal the right side against Tukuafu and Tepper allows his man to at least get in the throwing path. The worst part is Best was open, scorching on the flat again down the sideline.

4th and 10, ORE 30, 14:31
Offense: Shotgun, RB right, 2 WR right
Defense: 3 down linemen, three up in the box, full on blitz by the linebackers

This time it's Cheadle who's out of position to defend the rushing linebacker and only gives him a brief brush by, and this throw by Riley looks rushed.

Alright, that's about as far as I want to go. In all, here are the mistakes I enumerated, for each blocker.

Matt Summers-Gavin--8
Chris Guarnero--5
Justin Cheadle--5
Mike Tepper--4
Brian Holley--3
Mitchell Schwartz--2
Jahvid Best--2
Marvin Jones--1

That's 30 clear blocking errors on the first 41 offensive plays, almost all of them drive killers (to be fair, some blockers committed their mistakes on the same play, so the average percentage of bad blocking plays was around 55-60%, it wasn't one blocking error per play. Still pretty bad). If you expect to win games making that many mistakes at the line of scrimmage, I have beachfront property on Mars I'd like to sell you.

It's why I find it hard to blame quarterback play or our running game for not getting going. How on Earth can you blame the quarterback and skill players when your linemen keep on missing man assignments, when your guards aren't pulling properly, and you aren't able to contain and seal in the zone?

Finally, I'm not going to absolve Andy Ludwig on this. There were several things I noticed that I didn't particularly like, it made those warnings we heard from Utah and from Oregon before the season all the more unsettling, and Saturday made this mocking animation from Off the Pond seem depressingly prophetic.

*Any time the Bears max protected (stacked up two tight ends or had the fullback in the game), they ran the ball. They stacked the box and we stacked right back against them. I think we tried to play fake and go deep once or twice. Any time Riley lined in shotgun, we passed the ball (it's pretty much automatic at this point that we pass the ball out of shotgun, we maybe do one draw a game, none today).

*I also didn't like that Cal always had a lot of people (fullbacks, tight ends, even tailbacks) staying back in pass protection when Oregon barely blitzed at all and got most of their pressure with four down linemen, so often Cal had six or seven blocking four. You're robbing yourself of intermediary and short passing options when you have Jahvid Best or Shane Vereen blocking on passing downs, and you're allowing the coverage to play tighter on the receivers and making it tough for Riley to get rid of the ball, making it more likely for him to get sacked.

*Now you might be saying "WTF MAN OUR O-LINE GOT KILLED Y U WANT LESS MEN BACK IN COVERAGE." Well, fine, don't listen to me, listen to Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers on Wednesday said the best thing might be for coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin to let the front five on the offensive line fend for themselves.

"I think one of the things that happened last week was because of struggles (in protection) in Week 1, we’ve kept more guys in (to block)," Rodgers said. "Our backs were staying in a little bit longer, and so our stuff was all down the field because we didn’t have any of our check downs out.

"The push, hopefully, this is week is, ‘Hey you guys got to hold up up front.’ We need more options underneath the coverage. When they’re dropping off so far, you need some check downs."

It might seem counterintuitive that the guy who’s been getting killed — 10 sacks and 19 hits in two games — wants less protection, but the logic is that by keeping in running backs and tight ends less often, Rodgers will have more options to get the ball out quicker if he’s facing pressure. Against the Bengals, many of his throws were deep because there were so few short options.

*The shifting of the tight ends was interesting, and the tight ends did seem to do their job well in blocking, but it didn't matter with the big five in the middle committing mental error after mental error.

*Almost any time Marvin Jones motioned toward the line, Cal ran the ball and Jones blocked someone on the edge. Not such a great job this week.

*With T.J. Ward out with an injury, we did not test the deep middle at all. How much of that had to do with the wind I'm not sure, but Cal probably had chances to strike up if Riley has time to make his reads or if the O-line pass protects better. The receivers had single coverage on the secondary much of the game except on obvious passing down situations.

*We did not test the sidelines as much as I'd have liked to see. Every time Riley rolled out toward the sidelines he got a first down, and on the first play in the second half Tucker sprinted out for 50 yards on a throw right in the middle of the zone. So Oregon's going to kill us going outside? Let's do it too! Far too late an adaptation by Ludwig.

*Hydro indicated in his Minnesota postgame thoughts that Ludwig had created a whole set of new looks for the offense and there are plenty more blocking schemes in place that give defenses more looks to guard against. While all these new looks are neat and can throw good teams off balance, the fact is throwing in these new wrinkles forces your offense to depend even more on execution. As you can probably guess, no wrinkles and looks in the offense could've saved Cal from themselve on Saturday.

*It begs the question: Was Aliotti a step ahead the entire way? It might've felt that way in the end, but through the middle of the game I'd say Ludwig beat himself more than Aliotti did. The Bears played very conservatively trying to use their blocking to open it up, and we stubbornly kept on trying these long developing plays when it was clear the Cal O-line was off their game. Whether Aliotti knew about Ludwig's tendencies is up for debate, but it's safe to say the Oregon's front seven was masterful at confusing and taking apart Cal's blockers.

*I'd have liked to see more dumpoffs to Best (who we didn't screen or swing to once), or quick slants inside and hitches outside, anything to get the ball out of the pocket as quickly as possible. That Riley was still backing up into throwing routes like he had the New York Giants O-line in front of him reeks of obstinance by the coaching staff. When your O-line isn't playing well, adapt to the situation and make the best of it.

*That being said, I can't really lay the hammer down on Ludwig. The offensive line put up a FAIL, and even if he'd adapted and adjusted properly to the situation, that probably only changes the scoring margin from 39 to 19 or 25.

In either case, Marshall's got a lot of work to do before one of the best defenses in the country comes calling on Saturday. You could argue how much crowd noise, or getting confused by audibles, or just not being able to react to the Oregon defensive gameplan factored in, but the O-line did not execute, and Riley, Best, and Vereen paid the price. A performance like this against USC, and our offense is going to do something it's never done in the Tedford era--get shut out.

Possibly coming later: What's with the defensive meltdown? We'll see if I feel up to it.

Golden Nuggets: The horror! the horror!

Berkelium97 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:32:50 -0000

In front of a record crowd, No. 12 women's volleyball notched a huge win over No. 10 Stanford. It was Cal's first Big Spike win at home since Halloween 2004.

The Bears out-blocked Stanford, 13.0-9.0, and put up a .250 attack percentage in the match (62k, 26e, 144att) while holding the Cardinal to a .204 attack rate on 152 attempts (58k, 27e). Stanford junior outside hitter Alix Klineman led the Cardinal with 23 kills (5e, 49att, .367) with junior outside hitter Cassidy Lichtman (14k, 6e, 35att, .229) and senior middle blocker Janet Okogbaa (14k, 4e, 27att, .370) adding 14 kills apiece. Lichtman also had 11 digs and was out-dug only by Stanford junior libero Gabi Ailes, who led the Cardinal with 13.

The Bears never trailed in the final set and went up by as many as four points on three occasions. The Cardinal stood fast and drew to within a point at 13-12, but Cutura's 21st kill of the night gave the Bears match point at 14-12. Cutura went back to serve for the match and after a furious rally, an attack by Okogbaa went long to give the Bears a 15-12 win in the fifth set. Cutura had four of Cal's 10 fifth-set kills while Murrey put in three without an error on seven attacks. Both teams had 10 kills with the Bears posting a .333 percentage on 24 attacks (2e) and the Cardinal posting a .318 percentage on 22 attacks (3e).

Daily Cal reports on the match, emphasizing the phenomenal play from true freshman Correy Johnson.

Now, if you are a sensitive reader or have children in the room, I warn you not to read the rest of this post. I have recaps, analysis, and quotes from yesterday's Autzen Massacre and none of it is pretty. You have been warned...

You can, however, skip all that and check out the results of several other Cal sports. They fared notably better than football did.

Post-game quotes are a mix of "They were better than us" and "we're not going to go into a downward spiral." Tepper said he couldn't hear Riley or the snap counts.
Cal took a nosedive in the rankings and fell to 24th in the AP poll and 19th in the coaches' poll. Sports Illustrated's George Schroeder says it's time to scratch a "vastly overrated" team from the top-10. Despite what Tedford and company may say, Cam Inman says yesterday's loss was no aberration, just a poor performance from a flawed team. In the same article he describes some of the postgame locker room behavior by the Bears as a little delusional, that they were still thinking of a Rose Bowl or a Pac-10 championship. Jahvid's last sentence is kind of bizarre.
LATimes writer Chris Dufresne says the repeated failures when Cal knocks on the door of greatness seem like voodoo, or as our good friends at AtQ say, the JuJu.
Schlabach predicts a Mizzou-Cal Sun Bowl and Feldman predicts a Cal-Utah...wait for it...Poinsettia Bowl. Looks like the Cal bandwagon is nothing more than an old Radio Flyer by now.
Bob Gregory says Oregon did some things Cal hadn't scouted for and Cal was, as we all saw, caught by surprise by Oregon's offense.
Oregon linebacker Spencer Paysinger called the Bears' offense "predictable" and Casey Matthews said "After we scored our second touchdown, it seemed like they quit." Defensive Coordinator Nick Aliotti said if Picasso was a defensive coordinator, yesterday's performance would be one of his works of art.
USC is listed as 4 point favorites against the Bears in Vegas.
No. 4 men's water polo defeated No. 16 Pacific 11-7.
In their third straight top-three finish, men and women's cross-country finished second at the Stanford Invitational.
No. 7 women's soccer suffers a 1-0 overtime loss to Cal Poly.
No. 4/5 men's soccer lost a 2-1 match to New Mexico.

Morning Quack Fix: Ducks focus on tackling, look ahead to Utah.

ntrebon — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:36:05 -0000

Good morning Duck fans. It's amazing how much brighter the week looks after a win. Here's hoping I am feeling even better next Tuesday. After the jump a few videos, including an interview of Chip discussing the Utah Utes -- check it out.

Moseley has some practice notes up from yesterday, in which there was a focus on both tackling technique and reducing penalties during special teams play. Moseley goes more in depth on the emphasis on tackling in today's Register-Guard article. On the injury front, Moseley notes that both Spencer Paysinger and T.J. Ward did not participate, though both are listed as starters for Saturday.
George Schroeder has a column up today that discusses how the inconsistency of the early Oregon team has caused many to revise their preseason expectations. However, as Jared keeps pointing out, we have improved every half this season. Hopefully, we can put together a full game against Utah and deliver a performance that most of us were expecting heading into this year.
Moseley also has a roundup of links ranking the Pac-10 after the first two weeks. As one might expect, Oregon is ranked no higher than fifth. Also included are link to stories on the next four Oregon opponents.
Ted Miller thinks Oregon is still trying to find itself in 2009. And, considering that the Ducks are averaging just over 250 yards of offense per game, it's hard to argue. While Chip may argue that he's more concerned with points scored over yards, we won't be able to rely on our defense to contribute 17 points per game.
Here's a Utah blog entry that discusses the early QB play for the Utes. The presumptive starter is Terrance Cain who received praise from coach Kyle Whittingham despite some struggles during the middle two quarters against San Jose State. However, Cain still finished with nearly 350 yards of total offense, including 94 yards on 20 rushes. Still, an inexperienced QB playing at Autzen? Hopefully our defense can have another big day. Lots of other notes on the depth chart for the Oregon game are included.
The Duck baseball team started fall camp on Monday, and it sounds like they are eager to move on from (and improve upon) last year's 14-42 mark. Jeff Smith's blog entry also notes that the second phase of construction for PK Park is still on schedule to be finished prior to this year's home opener. Bob Clark also has a story in today's Register-Guard that notes how much more prepared the Ducks are during camp this year.
Finally, don't forget to make your picks for week three of the Jersey Contest. And, Nebraska could really use some love in the first game -- only one poster out of 37 thinks they'll beat VaTech.

Go Ducks!

Here's a video interview of Chip talking Utah:

Oregon Ducks Chip Kelly

Also, from BusterSports, Nick Daschel discusses the games for Oregon and Oregon State this past weekend:

ATQ 2009 Football Preseason Awards

JConant — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:00:16 -0000

A few of us ATQers got together and voted on a variety of preseason awards. All in good fun. At the end of the season we'll do it all over again and see how preseason predictions compare to post-season results. Thanks to jtlight, ntrebon, dvieira, PaulSF and Addicted to Quack.

Nominees and winners after the jump...

Most Valuable Player

LeGarrette Blount, Ed Dickson, Jeremiah Masoli, Walter Thurmond III, T.J. Ward

Winner: Jeremiah Masoli
Runner up: LeGarrette Blount

Offensive Player of the Year

LeGarrette Blount, Ed Dickson, Jamere Holland, Jeff Maehl, Jeremiah Masoli

Winner: LeGarrette Blount, Jeremiah Masoli (tie)

Defensive Player of the Year

Casey Matthews, Spencer Paysinger, Walter Thurmond III, Will Tukuafu, T.J. Ward

Winner: Walter Thurmond III
Runner up: Will Tukuafu, T.J. Ward

Offensive Newcomer of the Year (includes '08 red shirts)

Tyrece Gaines, LaMichael James, Diante Jackson, Carson York

Winner: LaMichael James (unanimous)

Defensive Newcomer of the Year (includes '08 red shirts)

Zac Clark, Scott Grady, Bryson Littlejohn, Terrance Montgomery

Winner: Bryson Littlejohn
Runner up: Terrance Montgomery

Freshman Player of the Year

Everett Benyard, Blake Cantu, Michael Clay, Diante Jackson, Jackson Rice

Winner: Jackson Rice
Runner up: Diante Jackson

Most Improved - Offense

Rory Cavaille, Andre Crenshaw, Garrett Embry, Jamere Holland, Jordan Holmes, David Paulson

Winner: Jamere Holland
Runner up: Jordan Holmes

Most Improved - Defense

Brandon Bair, Blake Ferras, Talmadge Jackson III, Casey Matthews, Eddie Pleasant, Kenny Rowe, Javes Lewis

Winner: Brandon Bair
Runner up: Jackson III, Matthews, Rowe, Lewis

Position Coach of the Year

Jerry Azzinaro, Steve Greatwood, Mark Helfrich, John Neal, Don Pellum, Nick Aliotti

Winner: Jerry Azzinaro
Runner up: Steve Greatwood

So, how did we do? If we blew it or nailed it, let us hear about it in the comments. Who are the players you're most looking forward to watch this season and why?

Opponent preview: Will Oregon stifle the Bronco ground game again?

Kevan Lee — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 18:08:22 -0000

The Duralog of Boise State good vibes that is still burning from last season's win over Oregon is just about finished. The warm fuzzies end Thursday night when a new chapter in the incredibly short, two-chapter book on Ducks vs. Broncos (tentatively titled: Quit hitting me: the Jeremiah Masoli story) is written.

Football is almost here, but it's not the same football that any other school in the country (except for maybe VaTech and Alabama) has been looking forward to. This game has huge ramifications for Boise State's BCS hopes. It has huge ramifications for LaGarrette Blount's MySpace friend requests. And there are about a billion different ways you can look at the matchup.

I've chosen one of the most overlooked, but one that I feel could become very important: Oregon's run defense. Let's talk about it, and feel free to add your most important factor in the comments.

No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State

Kickoff: 8:15MT, TV: ESPN, Radio: 580 KIDO

Weather forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 90 during the day

Spread: Boise State -5

Starting Offense

WR Jamere Holland
WR Jeff Maehl	Leading returning wide receiver (39 recs, 421 yards)
WR Garrett Embry
TE Ed Dickson	John Mackey Award watch list
LT Bo Thran
LG Carson York	Redshirt freshman
C Jordan Holmes
RG Mark Asper	6'7", 323 pounds
RT C.E. Kaiser	Most returning experience on offensive line
QB Jeremiah Masoli	The consensus best QB in the Pac-10
RB LeGarrette Blount	7.3 average, 17 TDs in 2008

The Oregon offense is Jeremiah Masoli, for better or for worse. There are loads of talented skill players around him and a green offensive line in front of him, but Masoli is the heart of the Duck attack. If he is on his game, he is one of the best in the country. If he is on his back, then Ryan Winterswyk WIN!

Starting defense

DE Will Tukuafu	Second-team PAC-10 in 2008
DT Brandon Bair
DT Blake Ferras	6'6", 290 pounds
DE Kenny Rowe
OLB Eddie Pleasant
MLB Casey Matthews	Took over from starter John Bacon six games into 2008 season
OLB Spencer Paysinger	95 tackles as redshirt freshman in 2008
CB Walter Thurmond III	Jim Thorpe Award watch list
CB Talmadge Jackson III
FS T.J. Ward	Preseason all-Pac-10
ROV Javes Lewis

There will be up to five first-timers on the Ducks' starting defense on Thursday, but that isn't to say that this unit is short on talent. A loaded linebacker corps is the meat, T.J. Ward is the special sauce, and veterans like Thurmond and Tukuafu are the bread that holds the whole thing together. Still, the sandwich seems to be missing something. Game experience, maybe?

Special teams

P Jackson Rice	true freshman, making his first college start
K Morgan Flint
KR Walter Thurmond III
KR LaMichael James	Really fast and quick
PR Kenjon Barner

This has nothing to do with special teams, but I thought I should mention Oregon's tazer players: LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. The tazer is Oregon's answer to traditional football positions; it's an athlete who can make plays from anywhere. Get ready to hear this term about 20 times on the ESPN broadcast.

What happened last season

via media.idahostatesman.com

Boise State ran for 38 yards on 35 carries (1.1 average) with one touchdown and a long rush of eight.

Credit the Oregon defense for taking away the run and making Kellen Moore beat them. Credit Kellen Moore for beating them. Credit me for not injuring myself mid-fistpump. Credit Mike Bellotti for that immaculate goatee. And when you're done crediting people, know this: The Bronco offensive line really struggled moving Oregon defenders out of the way and creating holes for the backs. Was it a size/strength issue, similar TCU truck that hit the Broncos? Was it something wrong with the backs?

I'm siding with size and strength (or am I siding against it?). Boise State's O-line looked just fine protecting Kellen Moore on passing plays. The issue wasn't form or technique. It was owning the line of scrimmage that really went Oregon's way. Nothing shows this more than the statistics from Oregons' defensive line. Typically, linebackers lead the team in tackles, or when prolific passing offenses take to the air, players in the secondary get big tackle totals. Rarely do you see it happen along the defensive line.

However, Oregon's D-line really filled the stat box, with one player tying for team lead in tackles and another racking up an inordinate amount of tackles for loss. Combined, four members of Oregon's defensive line - Ra'Shon Harris, Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and Cole Linehan - recorded 26 tackles, six TFLs, and one sack. Incredible.

What has changed over the past 12 months

Attrition has struck both the Oregon D-line and the Boise State O-line. The Broncos lost all-conference G/T Andrew Woodruff and his bearded buddy John Gott. The Ducks graduated Reed, Linehan, and Harris, in addition to linebackers Jerome Boyd and John Bacon.

Reed is the most notable absence along the Oregon defensive front. He was an All-American last year, recording 13 sacks, 7 TFLs, and five FR, but his departure might not be the most important hole up front for the Ducks. Both defensive tackles, Linehan and Harris, are gone, leaving a big void for a rotation of JCs and others to fill. Blake Ferras leads a merry-go-round at the position that will sub in as many as four at defensive tackle. The Ducks replace Reed with inexperienced junior Kenny Rowe.

Boise State's O-line has a new look again, just as it did in virtually every game last season. The Broncos will start the year with first-timers Michael Ames and Will Lawrence in the lineup. The other three positions return experience from last year, including center stud Thomas Byrd. Kevin Sapien and Matt Slater are the other two starters, and Nate Potter might see the field in optimal false start packages.

Spotlight on: DE Will Tukuafu

via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

Reed wasn't the biggest terror against the Broncos last season. It was Tukuafu, the JC transfer who recorded six solo tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and one sack against Boise State. He was a handful, in part because the Broncos paid a lot of attention to Nick Reed, and in part because the guy is just a stud.

Coming out of Scottsdale CC, Tukuafu was ranked as one of the two best DL JCs in the nation and reached as high as No. 7 overall on Rivals list of JC players. He was originally recruited by BYU, going so far as to sign a letter of intent with the school. He chose to take a two-year mission instead, and found himself on the CC route when he returned. Thanks to his time away, he is now listed as the oldest player on the Oregon roster at age 25.

His old man strength serves him well. At least, that's what I attribute his being able to sack Jake Locker one-handed.

Tukuafu, a team captain this season and the only returning starter on the defensive line, could be lined up often against Ames, playing in his first actual game in two years. How will Ames handle the new guy? Is Tukuafu's presence the reason why Tommy Gallarda was picked to start at TE against the Ducks? What will the coaching staff do to handle this matchup? I'd like to know your thoughts because none of mine end well.

Can Boise State beat Oregon without an effective running game?

Ah, one of the cruxes.

Well, the obvious answer last year was yes. Boise State would have done just as well letting Kellen Moore fall forward every time they called a running play, and still the Broncos built a 24-point lead and hung on for a win in Eugene. The running game was not needed to win. It would have been nice to have around, especially when BSU needed to salt away some time late in the game. It also might have helped Ian Johnson get drafted, but oh well.

The Broncos proved time and again that they didn't need the running game to be successful last year. But was that a product of their easy schedule? How many times out of 100 would the Broncos beat the Ducks by only running for one yard per carry?

It's nice to dwell on the win from last year, but this is not last year's Bronco team (or Duck team, for that matter). One of the most disconcerting parts of this discussion is that we don't know how the Broncos will perform this year. What do you think? Is the 2009 BSU team built to win without the running game?

The signs seem to say yes. Kellen Moore should be improved over last year, which is just an impossibly crazy idea. The Oregon secondary might be the team's biggest weakness, and with the Boise State's passing game being their biggest strength, well, I'll let you draw your own conclusions. Where the running game really makes its money is if the Broncos get a lead late in the game. As my friends at Football Outsiders love to point out, "You run when you win, you don't win when you run." Let me let them explain.

The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of "establishing the run." There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.

In general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

Thoughts on this?

How will Oregon defend the Broncos

Of course, Oregon's run defense is not just limited to the four guys up front. The Ducks have a deep and talented linebacker trio as well with Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, and Eddie Pleasant. These three players could be the key to making up for the inexperience along the defensive line.

Also, Oregon has the luxury of bringing in rover person Javes Lewis (and sometimes Marvin Johnson) to support the run from his quasi-safety position. At times, Boise State could see eight in the box. But will they?

Given how coolly Kellen Moore shred the Oregon defense last season, you have to wonder if the Ducks won't try to take away the pass and make the Broncos beat them on the ground. This will be fascinating to watch. Seriously, watch it. In the first couple series of the game, strategies should be clear, and you should be able to tell which direction these teams are going. Does Boise State have what it takes to fashion a successful running game off of a traditional seven-man front?

How will Boise State come out against the Ducks

The Broncos could come out with guns a-blazing, using the pass to set up the run. We saw in previous games last year that BSU is not afraid to completely abandon the run in favor of chewing up yards through the air. If it's not working, coaches seem to think, then why hammer it down.

In scrimmages this fall, the passing offense seemed to be a step ahead of the rushing O, and potential starter Jeremy Avery was absent from it all. He even slipped a little on the depth chart into 1A status slightly above 1B D.J. Harper. Both backs are very talented. But you have to wonder how much faith the Broncos have in their running game at this point.

Also, there is more than one way to run the ball. Boise State loves its flare passes and bubble screens that work as basically extended hand-offs. These often get just as many, if not more yards than actually running the ball. Boise State could use this extensively.

How do you think the Bronco running game is feeling at this point?

Other factors in the Oregon run defense debate

Crowd noise. Running games tend to struggle on the road because they cannot hear the snap count and therefore lose that advantage. This won't be the case on Thursday night, provided I can shut up the "Whose House" guy at appropriate times.
Backs that hit the hole. Not to say that Ian Johnson was a poor runner, but he definitely was better suited to run behind a line that allowed him to get up a head of steam. Avery and Harper can go from 0-60 in nothing flat, so that could be a factor in the run game.
Misdirection and gadget plays. Boise State can keep defenses honest with many different looks. If the line wins individual battles, this can lead to big plays.
Playing with a lead or coming from behind. Depending on which team is in which position, the running game could either be a huge focus or a superfluous afterthought.
Richie Brockel. He's really good, and he could be lined up at fullback a lot more than we're used to seeing.
Kellen Moore audibles. Will he be smart enough to check into a high-success running play? That was a stupid question. Forget I asked.

Are there some other factors that I overlooked or failed to mention?

The bazillion other factors that could determine the outcome of the game

The Oregon run defense is just one of a myriad of little battles that could mean win it or lose it for either team. Do you have a factor or matchup that you'll be watching? Here are some others I thought of off the top of my head.

Special teams, and in particular, Kyle Wilson returning punts
Oregon skill players LeGarrette Blount, LaMichael James - they're apparently fast and good
Jeremiah Masoli vs. Boise State secondary - Will the game be won or lost here?
Coaching - Advantage: the guy who has coached before

There are loads more. Which one are you looking at?

Conclusions

So many different things could happen on Thursday, rendering any one of these conclusions irrelevant or prophetic. I'm hoping for the latter.

Which of the following conclusions are you?

Boise State's offensive line will dominate an inexperienced Oregon defensive line, the Broncos will control the line of scrimmage, and the running game will be a solid option for the fourth quarter
Oregon's defensive line will overpower a young Boise State offensive line, the Ducks will control the line of scrimmage, and the Broncos will be forced to pass if they want to gain yards
The Broncos and Ducks will exchange good plays, canceling out the impact of the running game, and putting the focus onto another big matchup
Michael Ames will have a big game
Michael Ames will have a bad game
Will Tukuafu will have a big game
Will Tukuafu will have a bad game

I'm just getting warmed up with conclusions, but I should probably stop there. How do you guys see this matchup playing out? Where on the scale of importance does it fall? What factors did I miss? What players should I have mentioned? And most importantly ...

.. are you ready to finally get this thing over with?

Morning Quack Fix: Kelly press conference, Oregon's heightened speed and conditioning, Masoli stays focused

jtlight — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 12:51:54 -0000

First of all, I just want to thank all of you readers for making August the biggest month in ATQ history. The community here is what keeps this place going, so thanks for coming around and making your voice heard. Second of all, and more importantly, 3 DAYS! The final week is upon us, and we have a lot of quack to help you through the day. Make sure to check out the links after the jump (we got some great ones), as well as the full video from Coach Kelly's first pregame press conference.

With less than a week to go to the first game of the season, Coach Kelly gave his first pregame press conference (full video after the jump), and he covered a lot of ground. From the attitude of the team, to the atmosphere in Boise, to Kellen Moore, to the two-deep, it's well worth watching/listening to the whole thing.
Coach Kelly has released a two-deep for the upcoming game at Boise. In terms of the injury, the only that will hold a player out entirely is Rory Cavaille's shoulder injury. Of note at WR is the absence of Tyrece Gaines and Jackson. There will likely be a 5 WR rotation of Holland, Maehl, Embry, Tuinei, and Davis, while Gaines, Jackson, and Blake Cantu will not be rushed into action. Other notes: Jackson Rice will be the punter, Michael Clay long snapper, Javes Lewis will be playing rover, LaMichael James and Walter Thurmond will be returning kickoff, and Kenjon Barner will be returning punts.

One thing on both coaches mind heading into Thursday night is the attitude of the players. Coach Petersen has kept a very tight leash on his players (one of the reasons we haven't heard from them much, as they aren't allowed to speak to out of town media), and is doing his best to keep them grounded, saying, "we’re really just trying to take this thing and worry about ourselves." Meanwhile, Kelly, while ignoring opportunities to make excuses for last seasons loss, really seems to be embracing the same attitude of his players, and like the mindset of the players. While there has been some talk, the players seem to be focused and motivated, and ready to play. While Petersen is downplaying the importance of this game, Kelly is doing the opposite: "If your expectations aren't to be the best, then ... you know, nobody rises to low expectations."

Kelly is also preparing to life on the field, as opposed to in the box. Though, he seems ready for the challenge, stating, "sometimes, when you’re in the booth, you miss the momentum and the ebb and flow of the game. I think you can call the game better from the booth, but I think you can manage the game better from the field." I think this will be an interesting subplot to the season. Luckily, Kelly called plays from the sideline at New Hampshire, so he has experience in that situation.

While Duck fans have been up in arms for a year about the cheap shots on Oregon players during last years game, Chris Petersen wants his team to continue to be aggressive, though also cut down on penalties. This is definitely a fine line to walk, and Oregon has long had a mantra of playing "one inch out of control." Playing a physical, aggressive game can lead to penalties. Balancing aggression and discipline can be tough, but both traits are key to success.

John Hunt from the Oregonian also has another piece on the iincreased speed of the Oregon team, specifically the defense. And the Duck's quest for speed has led to a ridiculous practice pace, inspired in part by Bobby Knights old practices at Indiana, which strength coach Jim Radcliffe witnessed years ago. Kelly and Radcliffe are pushing the players, and having such fast-paced practices that extra conditioning isn't even being used. An example of just how successful the off-season conditioning has been is Spencer Paysinger, who has increased his 40 time to 4.57 despite gaining 18 pounds. I think that these changes will really surprise us fans. We've read countless articles on the speed of the defense, but I don't really think we're prepared for just what kind of impact this will have on the field.

Lastly, Jeremiah Masoli is preparing for the season, with a large amount of national attention directed his way. Masoli is handing it well, and has not even purchased a copy of his SI cover issue. I think he is an example of the attitude of the Duck team. The are focused, confident, and ready to play.

Got any concerns after Kelly's first conference, or how bout some hope? Leave it in the comments. GO DUCKS!

Oregon Roundtable

TwistNHook — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 21:00:10 -0000

via www.uoregon.edu

TwistNHook: Every game the last few years in Autzen has been tight.

2007-Last second miracle touchback
2005-Last second missed regulation field goal leads to terrible OT
2003-Blackout gives Oregon momentum in 4th quarter

Cal is 1-2 in those games and could just as easily be 0-3 or 3-0. Odd things always seem to happen up there. Given that USC will be the next weekend at home, some Cal players might be peeking ahead. Who knows?

Avinash: How do people think Chip Kelly will fare as the new leading man at Oregon? He seemed rather quippy during Media Day.

There's no doubt he is an offensive master of the spread offense, especially the spread run, and you'd figure that their excellence will continue into this season. But as we've seen before, being both head coach and offensive coordinator can easily bog you down once you hit a rut (Tedford 2007 anyone?). Will he be able to handle both duties at once?

Do you feel that Oregon will be a better team?

TwistNHook: If I were an Oregon fan, my biggest concern would be about the O-Line. Don't they have large amounts of inexperience there?

Avinash: Maybe, although that inexperience might be deceptive.

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

"Oregon's no huddle-spread offense forces their offensive linemen to run much more than traditional units. Oregon not only relies on an exceptional conditioning program, but also uses frequent substitutions to keep their linemen fresh.

Last year the Ducks rotated nine players in and out of the lineup. While the one constant on the field, Max Unger, is now playing up I-5 for the Seahawks, the Ducks do return four players with significant game experience"

HydroTech: Doesn't sound like their OL will be as green as we thought. I'm concerned about LeGarette Blount, their runningback. This guy is apparently a first round draft pick in the waiting. He's 240 pounds! Almost as big as former Wisconsin runningback and Heisman winner Ron Dayne (250 pounds). I'm hoping Blount's career is the opposite of Dayne's - sucky in college and good in the NFL. This guy, along with Oregon's athletic offensive line, will definitely give Cal's defense a HUGE test. Frankly, just thinking about playing in Autzen and having to deal with Blount makes me feel like we're going to lose and I haven't even mentioned Masoli. So about Jeremiah Masoli. That guy can run and is another threat for the defense. His passing could use some work. He puts up some pretty inconsistent games. Last year he had a game where he threw only 33.3% completions, and another game where he threw 80.8% completions. Overall, he's about 57% passer which leaves a lot to desire stastically.

So, just thinking about Blount, Masoli, their OL, and their home field advantage makes me think this is going to be the second toughest team Cal will face in 2009. I would put this game at perhaps a coin-flip for who wins or perhaps a 60/40 in favor of Oregon.

Ragnarok: In spite of that fearsome rushing attack, I would argue that the key to the Ducks' fortunes vs. Cal lies with Masoli's arm. Let's run some numbers:

Last year, Cal's defense gave up more than 125 yards total rushing five times. They lost four of those games (accounting for all four of their losses), but only gave up more than 200 yards on the ground once, yielding 206 yards on the ground to Oregon in a 26-16 victory. Deplorable field conditions and inopportune turnovers aside, I believe that the Ducks' biggest weakness was their inability to pass the ball when they needed to.

Oregon's option offense hummed along just nicely on the ground, chewing up big chunks of yardage on first and second downs, but when the Ducks *had* to pass, especially on third down, they were abysmal. Discounting Oregon's final, desperate drive (under 2 minutes left, down 2 scores), the Ducks faced 14 3rd downs that day. How'd they do? When they dropped back to pass, they were 0/6, getting sacked once for -3 yards and throwing one interception. That...is pathetic. (They weren't much better rushing. Yes, they converted 3 of 7 times, but only once longer than 3 yards, and they gained a total of 16 yards on 3rd down. Total.)

That final drive? Masoli didn't even play. Although I don't *know* why he was benched, I feel confident in guessing that Justin Roper (who has since transferred) came in because Oregon *had* to pass, and Masoli just didn't provide enough of a downfield threat. If Masoli learns to throw, then I'll be really worried, but as it is, I don't see the Ducks getting through their schedule with fewer than three losses.

TwistNHook: Well, I agree that Masoli being able to throw is key. But I guess I'm higher on him that you are. Did you see him in the Civil War? He was killing it out there. I even said right before that game that Masoli would be key. And when he was killing it out there, the double pronged attack was murderous.

In many ways, this Oregon offense is similar to ours. Great rushing attack with a suspect passing attack. And if the passing attack CAN step it up and become consistent and productive, then they could have something special. That said, I like our talent almost across the board. This is not to denigrate the Oregon talent, including Blount Force Trauma (even though he had something like 5 rushes for 7 yards against us last year). But instead just to look positively upon our talent.

Avinash: I'm not sure even how to count last year's game. They were playing in the mud. Neither Longshore nor Masoli could do much damage when they couldn't see two feet in front of them.

Also, even though the Bears have won four of the last five from Oregon, three of those wins have been incredibly fluky. Two involved the Ducks committing a hundred turnovers in the red zone, the other involved that receiver catching a ball near the end zone that would've set up a game winning field goal, and then casually letting it drop to the ground. Rose Bowl 2004 hopes would've ended that day.

We talk about the Bears failing to execute offensively, but do you guys feel the Ducks have a similar execution problem when they're expected to succeed with their offense?

Avinash: *bold that last question, Twist.

TwistNHook: DON'T TELL WHAT I SHOULD AND SHOULD NOT BOLD!

Why you always bolding so much stuff? Regular font not good enough for you? Why you gotta hat?

Is Jairus Byrd still around? That guy has been around forever. It's like every year they have tons of hype around the secondary and we still pass well against them. If CBKWit wasn't enjoying his relaxing tour of downtown Pyongyang of indeterminate length (somebody call Big Daddy Clinton!), I'm sure he'd agree with my assessment. Those Oregon DBs always seemed to be overhyped.

Ragnarok: I'm not sure what game you were watching, Avi, but there was no mud (Memorial Stadium has turf), and visibility was fine (it was just a little wet, that's all - it's still good, it's still good!).

TwistNHook: Also, I thought Longshore passed the ball decently well, given all the conditions.

Avinash: It was hyperbole! Hyperbole, damnit!

Ragnarok: I guess you just weren't ridiculous enough. Perhaps you could take hyperbole lessons from rollonubears?

TwistNHook: Here is the box score from last year's game.

Longshore went 13 for 27 for 136 yards with an average of 5 yards per reception. In a vacuum, those are not great numbers. When you look at the other side (where the Oregon QBs were averaging 2.1 and 3.6 yards per reception) and given the weather, I thought that that was not halfway bad. Riley actually played better, but was knocked out fairly early in the game.

I am concerned about the fact that Oregon had murderized our QB the last 2 years. If that happens again this year and Sweeney is starting against USC, it could be a LONG game slash season slash off-season slash rest of our lives.

Avinash: Here is Addicted to Quack's perspective.

I do agree that if there is any Pac-10 defense that will slow down, even stifle Best this season, it will be Oregon. Their back seven is one of the fastest in the country, and they can definitely make sure Best doesn't find the holes.

TwistNHook: This story angers me greatly:

EUGENE — Receiver Diante Jackson was one happy camper Friday as the Oregon football team kicked off practices.

Jackson was cleared for academic entry into Oregon, after taking a sociology class and finishing a history class this summer. The NCAA Clearinghouse, which rules on eligibility for players, approved him Thursday.

Damn you, Diante! Why must you succeed and be happy for the other people???????

via blog.oregonlive.com

Of course, the biggest question is new coach Chip Kelly. And everybody is focusing on the offense. But what of the D? How is it going to look?

Oregonlive has this to say:

"[Last year] Oregon finished seventh in scoring defense (28 points), eighth in total defense (390 yards) and last in pass defense (270 yards). The loss of defensive end Nick Reed and rover Patrick Chung, both consummate leaders, made this season's rebuilding job that much tougher.

So the Ducks tweaked their philosophy. Like many teams, they sought to add a little speed to the edges, and the results this spring were encouraging.

Kelly's first move was to bring in feisty defensive line coach Jerry Azzinaro, who inherits a line of senior Will Tukuafu and question marks at the three other spots. Brandon Bair, 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds, figures to start at one tackle along with either Blake Ferras or Simi Toeaina. Pass rusher Kenny Rowe or stockier Terrell Turner will start at the other end.

The Ducks haven't ruled out the athletic Josh Kaddu at end as they try to add speed wherever possible and stand up one or two defensive ends to help cover the field. That leaves the middle more open, putting pressure on the steadily improving Casey Matthews at middle linebacker. At his side will be the undersized but fast Eddie Pleasant and Spencer Paysinger, who was second on the team with 95 tackles last season.

Newcomer Bryson Littlejohn was perhaps the biggest eye-opener on defense this spring, showing an eagerness to hit.

Behind them, the secondary is again a strength -- although Oregon ranked last in the league in pass defense in 2008. Hard-hitting T.J. Ward is back at safety, along with Thurmond, who was the team's best player in the spring.

Willie Glasper and Kenjon Barner will battle for the other corner, and Chung's replacement at rover will be either the athletic Talmadge Jackson or the physical Marvin Johnson -- improving juniors with complementary skills."

To me, that bodes fairly well. There is a lot of turn over. On a D that wasn't very good. A lot of camp battles for spots. Maybe some of these guys will take that next step and I'll be eating crow. But reading that leaves me feeling fairly confident (even though I think there's a good chance we lose this game).

Avinash: The last five years we've played them, I have never uttered the phrase, "Oh shit, we have to face the Oregon defense".

Football is obviously a 50-50 games; stop the offense, go at the defense. But generally Cal's offense has held their own with Oregon's defense, sometimes even blowing it open with them. Maybe it's because Tedford has coordinated alongside Allotti for three years and knows many of his tendencies (Although to be fair, Allotti probably does likewise). I'd still say Tedford is the more capable of the two in winning the strategic battles between the two, especially with Ludwig in tow (who also coordinated alongside Allotti at Oregon).

My attention will be focused on the defensive side of the ball with Cal, and how they battle the spread option. Do you guys feel that it'll be more important to beat Oregon's defense, or stop Oregon's offense?

HydroTech: I think the key is to slow down and stop Oregon's offense. Oregon's offense is so high octane and fast, that it can quickly build up a multiple touchdown lead forcing the opposing team to play "catch-up." In other words, the Oregon offense will put their team ahead enough to the point where the opponent has to start playing risky and getting aggressive to reduce that score differential before there is too little time left in the game. I think Oregon's offenses have been really carrying the team and it's the offense, not the defense, that the Cal Football team needs to really stop.

via www.marshawnlynch.info

TwistNHook: How do you guys see this one ending up? I really don't know. I feel like Cal has more talent on paper, but Oregon has such a strong home field advantage. It will be close, no matter how you cut it. I think Cal wins 4-2.

Avinash: I think Oski could put the Duck in a headlock and suplex him.

Yellow Fever: 5-4. I feel a last-second safety deciding this one.

TwistNHook: I see Cal fumbling right at Oregon's 1 yard line down 4-3. Then, Oregon takes over and we get the safety FOR THE WIN!

HydroTech: I'm really hesitant to do too much predicting of how our team will perform when we have such huge questions about our passing game. If our passing game sucks, we could lose big time. If our passing game is decent, we can win a close one. If our passing game is great, then we can crush the life out of them. I could see this being a 20 point loss, I could see a 3 point win, and I could also see a 21 point win. To me, it just all depends on how well our passing game is, and that's something we won't know until the season starts.

Poll

How will Cal do against Oregon?

Big win

37 votes

Close win

170 votes

Close loss

190 votes

Big loss

93 votes

490 votes | Poll has closed

Know thy Opponent 2009: Oregon Ducks

BoilerTMill — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:37:34 -0000

Last season there was a toss-up for our most exciting game. Was it the 32-26 double overtime loss to Oregon or the 48-42 shootout win over Michigan? Both games had their share of big plays, but I tend to lean toward the Oregon game. When Michigan came to town, no one was sure who was going to win in the battle of 2-6 teams. It was a fun shootout, but little else was on the line. Against Oregon, many Duck fans respected us, but expected a double-digit win. Judging by the comments left on my old Off the Tracks blog, we gained the respect of nearly every Oregon fan that day.

In the end, I dubbed the loss one of the most frustrating of the past few years. We had a ranked team on the ropes at home and were playing some of our best football in a long time only to have a couple of critical coaching errors cost us the game. Now we have the return trip to Autzen Stadium to face the Ducks again. Virtually no one outside of this blog is giving us any shot at all of winning the game. After last year though, I think this could be a very dangerous game for a Duck team that will likely begin the season in the top 15.

2008 Record: 10-3 (7-2 tied for second place in Pac-10)

Bowl result: Beat Oklahoma State 42-31 in Holiday Bowl

Blog Representation: Addicted to Quack, Duck Territory

Series with Purdue: Tied 1-1

Last Purdue win: 9/29/79 at Purdue 13-7

Last Oregon win: 9/13/08 at Purdue 32-26 2OT

Purdue fans wonder what might have been if Purdue had held on against Oregon last year.

Last Season for the Ducks:

I have become a pretty regular reader of Addicted to Quack. The general consensus of that excellent blog community is that injuries, specifically at the quarterback position, have cost the Ducks at least the Pac-10 title the past two seasons. Some would even say (and I agree) it cost them a shot at the national title in 2007. Oregon dropped just three games last season, and both Pac-10 losses came away from Autzen Stadium. Boise State surprised the Ducks 37-32 the week after we played them, but Oregon was still trying to settle its quarterback situation after Justin Roper got hurt against us. The Ducks open this coming season at Boise State in a game that many Duck fans are looking forward to. There was some bad blood last season between the schools, so our game with Oregon comes after a pretty hyped contest.

Oregon put some serious points on the board in the Pac-10, going 7-2 and earning a second place finish. It's only two losses were in games where the Ducks failed to score more than 16 points. USC asserted its dominance in a 44-10 win at the Coliseum, while California won a tight 26-16 home game. In four of Oregon's Pac-10 victories the Ducks cracked the 50 point barrier. The culmination was a 65-38 thrashing of Oregon State (in the Beavers' home stadium, no less) in the annual Civil War game that personally denied their rivals a trip to the Rose Bowl.

The Ducks are not afraid of an ambitious schedule this year. ESPN rated their non-conference schedule as the toughest in the Pac-10. Oregon goes to Boise State before facing Purdue and BCS bowl winner Utah. That's all before getting into a conference season that features USC. All of its tough conference games are at home, however. If Oregon gets through its non-conference slate undefeated is has a legitimate shot of finish the year unbeaten.

Oregon offense:

The Ducks had a pair of 1,000 yard rushers a season ago, while quarterback Jeremiah Masoli nearly became a third member of that group. LaGarrette Blount (1,002 yards, 17 TD's) will be the featured back with the departure of Jeremiah Johnson (1,201 yards, 13 TD's). Blount carried just 11 times against us last year, but he had 132 yards and two touchdowns. For the most part we actually kept him in check. 72 of his yards came on one play that set up a score in the second half. He did have the game winning touchdown at the end of the second overtime. Many pundits are lauding him as one of the best returning running backs in the nation. A JuCo transfer a year ago, Blount will make himself a lot of money with a good year in 2009.

A great 2009 isn't a guarantee, as the ATQ guys are certainly concerned about Blount's off the field attitude. There have been some concerns about his academics and level of fitness, but there are certainly no questions about his talent. As exhibited in last year's game, we can contain him for 10 plays only to have him bust out on the 11^th. As far as Oregon's other running backs, The ATQ guys do a fantastic job of outlining the prospects to replace Johnson in the above link. They are young without much experience, but are extremely talented, especially LaMichael James.

Oregon's quarterback situation was messy a year ago. Nate Costa was to be the starter, but a second straight ACL tear ended his season before it began. Justin Roper started against us, but got injured and only played sparingly the rest of the year. Roper transferred out of the program before spring football, and he was followed by Chris Harper, who also played a little at quarterback late in the year. That left just Masoli and sophomore Darron Thomas (who got significant minutes as the 4^th string guy against Boise due to injuries to Masoli and Roper) as the only experienced quarterbacks on the roster.

Last year's injuries could be a blessing to the Ducks. They allowed Masoli, who was third string going into the season, to emerge as the #1 starter. He got his first start against Boise State and improved greatly as the season went on. The junior ended up throwing for 1,744 yards and 13 touchdowns (against just five interceptions). He also ran for 718 yards and 10 touchdowns in Oregon's spread offense. Many believe that Harper is the best quarterback in the Pac-10, and he had little trouble grasping Oregon's complex spread offense a year ago.

Though Oregon prefers to run the ball, their passing game isn't too bad either. Jamere Holland is expected to become one of Oregon's top receivers, but he has limited game experience. He caught four passes for 53 yards a year ago, but more is expected of him this year. Jeffrey Maehl (39-421-5), and tight end Ed Dickson (35-508-3) are the two best returning receivers statistically. Senior Rory Cavaille is also listed as a starter on the depth chart, but he had just two catches for 12 yards and a score. The Ducks will do most of their work on the ground, but the receivers are just dangerous enough that we cannot completely ignore them. Dickson in particular was dangerous against us with 7 catches for 93 yards in last season's game.

One of the biggest question marks offensively for Oregon is its offensive line. In my earlier Q&A with Addicted to Quack, Dominic pointed out that their line lost a lot to graduation/the NFL and was banged up during spring ball. Projected starters C.E. Kaiser and Bo Thran were hurt during spring football and long-time center Max Unger was a second round pick of the Seattle Seahawks. The line projects to have some good size with everyone over 285 pounds. Its quickness will also be a factor, as it is necessary in their no huddle spread option attack. They will need to come together quickly, however. As we learned last year, offensive line issues can kill a season in a hurry if injuries keep you from putting a consistent group on the field.

Oregon Defense:

When you're scoring almost 42 points per game you often don't need much defense. Even so, the Ducks had a pretty good unit last year that held opponents to 28 points per game. Their secondary was among the best in the nation, but losses due to graduation meant hat much of this unit must be replaced. Fortunately for Oregon, the offense should give them plenty of margin for error in most games.

Kory Sheets had a 180 yard, 2 TD performance against Oregon last year in what may have been his best game as a Boilermaker. His first carry on the day was an 80 yard TD run, and we really should have given him the ball more as the day went on. Overall we ran for 201 yards as a team against Oregon. I'm sorry, but history shows there is absolutely no valid reason we should EVER lose when we rush for 200 yards as a team. The running game will be our strength to start the year, and we have to have a similar performance against Oregon to have any hope of winning in Autzen.

The first line of defense against the run will be an experienced defensive line full of upperclassmen. Senior end Will Tukuafu brings back 7.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss. His numbers should go up with the departure of Nick Reed (13 sacks a year ago). Kenny Rowe, Brandon Bair, and Blake Ferras were not starters a year ago, but saw some spot action. Ferras is a 6'6", 290 pound space eater at defensive tackle that should make running between the tackles difficult.

Oregon's back seven is often split into a two linebacker, five defensive back nickel package. Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews are both juniors at the linebacker spots and both played in all 13 games last season. Paysinger was second on the team in tackles with 95 and added a pair of sacks and interceptions to his resume. Matthews had 67 tackles and two sacks as well. Neither player was a stranger at getting into the backfield. Matthews had 13 tackles for loss while Paysinger had 12.

Where Oregon is a little shaky is its secondary. We are lucky that our inexperience in the passing game is not facing their secondary from a year ago. Last season Jairus Byrd, Patrick Chung, and Walter Thurmond limited our passing game to 207 yards and picked off Curtis Painter twice. Only Thurmond returns from that trio, although he is one of the best cover corners in the nation. He had 66 tackles and a team high five interceptions a year ago. One of those interceptions was returned for a touchdown. Senior Willie Glasper will join him at the other corner position, bringing 21 tackles in reserve action from a year ago.

Oregon's defense features three safeties led by T.J. Ward. Ward led the team in tackles a year ago with 101, and he did finish with 5.5 tackles for loss. Ward likes to rove all over the field and is generally wherever the ball ends up. Talmadge Jackson and Eddie pleasant will move into the other starting roles. Pleasant is the lone sophomore listed as a starter for the defense full of juniors and seniors. Despite losing some serious talent a year ago, this is a very experienced defense.

Oregon Special Teams:

Senior Morgan Flint took over the kicking duties from a struggling Matt Evensen midway through last season. That is a bit ironic as Evensen and our own Chris Summers had a decent kicking day in the wind at Ross-Ade Stadium. Flint was 7 of 9 on the year, but only had a long of 39 yards. Tim Taylor will be the new punter after punting once for 39 yards last year. He may not be needed much with Oregon's offense.

As we learned, Oregon's return game is almost as dangerous as its offense. Jairus Byrd's punt return for a TD was a game changer last year, but the blocking opened a great hole for him. Redshirt freshman Kenjon Barner appears to have made enough of an impression before setting foot on the field to have won the punt returner's job. Thurmond will once again serve as the primary kickoff returner after returning 21 kicks for 528 yards last year. He had a long return of 91 yards, but it was not for a TD.

Defensively Oregon's kick coverage was among the best in the nation last year. They limited teams to less than 20 yards per return. Their punt coverage wasn't so good, however, giving up 12.5 yards per return and one touchdown.

Intangibles:

This is the second straight game we will be facing a brand new head coach. Chip Kelly is taking over for long-time head coach Mike Belotti in a succession manner very similar to our own from Tiller to Hope. Do not expect a step back. Kelly was the offensive coordinator last year and should keep things running very smoothly.

I like that this game comes immediately after a tough road trip to Boise State and before the Utah game. It can be a bit of a trap game. It is Oregon's home opener, but if a godawful Indiana team can go out and win in Autzen why can't we? Sure, the 2004 Hoosiers were helped by seven Oregon turnovers, but we're going to be far better than that Indiana team. We might need only five. Seriously though, The Boise State game could take a lot out of Oregon. A win over the Broncos could cause a little complacency. A loss might bring them down a bit.

Still, I expect to have 100% of Oregon's attention. We gained their respect last fall and their fans know not to expect an easy win like they did last year. This will be the first road game for coach Hope and our farthest road game since the 2006 trip to Hawaii. It will be interesting to see how we respond to those factors.

Game Outlook:

I firmly believe the coaching staff cost us last year's game. We got conservative when we should have been aggressive, as evidenced by settling for a tough field goal at the end of regulation. We were aggressive when we should have been conservative, as evidenced by throwing an interception just before halftime instead of running out the clock. That interception led to three points, but they were three critical points that made it a two possession game at the break.

No one expects us to be competitive in this game. Of our 12 games, it is probably the least likely one we will win. I am planning on going to the game to see the beautiful scenery and experience what is supposed to be a fantastic game day atmosphere.

I am also going to watch us win.

We can absolutely win this game. I have maintained for a long time that I feel we will pull the upset. Coach Hope has changed the attitude of the program. I have little doubt he will have our guys believing they can win the game. If we stay committed whatever is working (likely the run) and the defense continues to show improvement we will hang around in the game we're not supposed to win. New defensive coordinator Donn Landholm puts an emphasis on creating turnovers too. If we can cause a few they will help greatly as well. I like that our defensive line and secondary should be huge positives against a team that mixes it up with the run. This will be the ultimate test for them.

Prediction:

We are going to beat one team we have no business beating in 2009, so why not start now? I may be going out on a thin limb here, but I have been saying for too long that we can pull this upset off. We can end our losing streak against ranked teams against the team it should have ended against last year.

The concerns in the secondary and along the offensive line for Oregon are two key factors. As much as I like and respect the Addicted to Quack guys, I can't help but point out that injuries, specifically ACL injuries, have played a major role in each of the last two years. I certainly don't wish ill will on them, but even if it is simple bad luck this is a team that has shown that injuries will often be an issue even early on.

We also didn't play that badly defensively a year ago. Yes we gave up 503 yards, but we held them to just one offensive touchdown in regulation. We ended up with two interceptions and, if not for Painter's killer pick before halftime and Byrd punt return, we probably would have won going away. The defense did a great job of keeping them out of the end zone, and it should be even better this year. If it can take advantage of an offensive line that is still gelling it could be a huge equalizer.

I like that this will be after an emotional Boise State game. I like that no one gives us any chance to win. I like that our running game will be sneaky good against a team we ran well against last year. I like that their secondary isn't quite as good as last year, giving our young receivers a small break. I like that coach Hope absolutely believes we can win this game. I'll probably be wrong on September 12^th, but at least I'll go on record as being wrong well in advance.

Based simply on a good feeling, Purdue pulls off a shocking upset and shows that the new coaching staff is indeed a change from the old. If I am wrong, at least I will get to experience a great atmosphere with some of the best bloggers in the game when I meet some of the Addicted to Quack guys. Purdue 32, Oregon 31

Football Spring Preview: Linebackers

jtlight — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:33:36 -0000

Over the next week, before spring practice starts on March 30th, we'll be taking a look at each section of the team, assessing its strengths and weaknesses, and looking at any battles that will be taking place. Today we look at the linebackers.

Going into last season, the linebacking corp was a significant concern. Former walk-on Spencer Paysinger was starting at the will linebacker position after the dismissal of Kevin Garrett, while the middle linebacker position was up in the air with Casey Matthews and John Bacon fighting it out. However, by the end of the season, Paysinger and Matthews were stars of the defense -- Paysinger was the 2nd leader tackler on the team, while Matthews notched 13 TFL over the season, while only starting the last 7 games of the season. These two playes will be the building blocks for what will be one of the best and deepest linebacking corps we've seen at Oregon in some time.

Starters:

Matthews is going to be starting at middle linebacker, while Paysinger will be starting at one of the outside spots. As both of these players will be juniors this fall, it will be great to see them progress and begin to lead the defense, as more will be put on them this year.

Rounding out the main corp will be either Eddie Pleasant or Bryson Littlejohn. Pleasant, a sophomore, could be an absolute beast, as long as he has his head together. Last season, with 5-11 223lb size, he was the teams fastest linebacker, with a 4.72 electronically timed 40 (he had a hand timed 4.44 during winter conditioning), while being one of the strongest as well. He has the speed and strength to play and pass and run, and I am excited to see what he can do this year. He played a good deal in last year's UCLA game, and he showed flashes of greatness. Oh, and just to reiterate, he's a sophomore.

Littlejohn, a 4-star JC transfer will push him. He's got a bit of size on Pleasant, and could be every bit as fast. In his JC video, he was all over the field, and was frequently in coverage. Due to this, he could conceivably push Paysinger, as well, for playing time, however, with Paysinger's production last season, this is doubtful.

[UPDATE] Littlejohn will not be on campus for spring practice.

The backups:

With the starting positions pretty much set, the backup battles could become interesting, not necessarily for this year, but for future years.

Brandon Hanna (So.) will likely be backing up Matthews, but may have to hold off Kiko Alonso, who was productive on the scout team last year. battling for outside spots will be Dewitt Stuckey (So.), Riley Showalter (Sr., former walk-on, who may not have a scholarship next fall), Josh Kaddu (So.), and if he can work out his issues, Terrance Pritchett (So.), who is currently suspended. All of these players have been productive in special teams and on scout teams, so even if they don't play at linebacker often, get used to hearing their names.

Also, two very talented incoming freshmen will be coming in for fall camp, Boseko Lokombo and Michael Clay. We won't see them in the spring, but they figure to compete for playing time this fall.

Conclusion:

The main 4 linebackers could all end up being great college football players. There is experience as well as talent, and backing them up are a lot of competent young guys who have done well in the roles they've been given.

This position doesn't really have any holes, and will be counted on to carry the defense at times. The addition of Pleasant and Littlejohn will be very important to watch, as they take over some of the linebacker cover roles. This spring could be fairly boring when watching this unit, but I'm just fine with that.

GO DUCKS!