SB Nation - Will Tukuafu

The Enemy of My Enemy, Part I: The Rose Bowl

Bama Hawkeye — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:15:09 -0000

As we begin preparing for the year in which the Big Ten shocks the college football world by winning five of its seven bowls, let's learn about the opponents. Oh sure, we could turn to the fans of our opponents and ask them questions about their beloved cats, birds, and bees. But this site was founded upon the idea of rivals. That's why we're talking with our opponents' rivals. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As we look at the Rose Bowl, AndyPanda of the outstanding Oregon State blog, Building the Dam, was kind enough to answer these questions that we had about the hated Oregon Ducks.

1. What schemes worked best for you on defense against Oregon's motion Pistol, spread sweeps, and zone read attack?

The key to contending with Coach Chip Kelley's spread option read offense is to play assignment football, and maintain gap and assignment discipline, and do it all night long. A traditional style pro defense. You cannot over-pursue, and one step can be too much, as the speed Oregon has will run into, or cut back thru, any gap a mistake opens. The Ducks' offense is predicated on option reads, and Jeremiah Masoli is a master at quick recognition and decision making.

Masoli isn't an exceptional thrower, but he is good enough to capitalize on an assignment error, as was evidenced when OSU's James Dockery over-committed on Jeff Maehl, and there was no safety support. The result was an immediate over the top 73 yard touchdown.

And while Masoli is rightly known for his running ability, his reads can just as easily result in someone else being the star. With cornerback Tim Clark already out with a broken leg, all conference Keaton Kristick missed only one play with a tweaked wrist. Masoli immediately sent LaMichael James thru where Kristick and Clark would have been for a 52 yard touchdown.

Those two plays, one break down, and one where a personnel vulnerability existed, were the difference in the game, producing over a quarter of the Ducks' total yards, and underscoring how important it is to maintain discipline against Oregon's offense on every play.

2. What's going to happen when Ohio State's (C) Michael Brewster (296 lbs), (RG), Bryant Browning (312 lbs), (LG) Justin Boren (315 lbs), (LT) J.B. Shugarts (298 lbs), and (RT) Jim Cordle (297 lbs) line up against Oregon's (LDT) Brandon Bair (250 lbs) (RDT) Blake Ferras (290 lbs), (RDE) Kenny Rowe (230 lbs), and (LDE) Will Tukuafu (272 lbs)? That's an average of 43 pounds difference at each position. Do the Buckeyes get burnt, or does Oregon get crushed?

A variety of blitzes and stunts will happen. The Oregon linebacking crew of Eddie Pleasant, Casey Matthews, and Spencer Paysinger are fast enough that they can come from anywhere, and if an offensive line releases to pick up the blitz, Tukuafu is strong enough, and Rowe is fast enough, to recover despite being initially stopped, and still make the play.

A sustained power running game can work against the Ducks, as Stanford demonstrated, but it must start with an effective passing game that pushes back Oregon's back seven. The key to overcoming the Duck defense is to prevent them from running toward the line of scrimmage, which allows them to capitalize on their speed.

3. The Beavers put 30 points up on the Ducks in the first 35 minutes of the game. The final 25 minutes saw the Beavers only get a field goal. How was OSU able to dominate the Ducks early, and what did Oregon do late to turn the tide?

Early on, Oregon St. quarterback Sean Canfield was on, and by completing a number of passes, was able to keep the Oregon defense backpedaling much of the time, not attacking the line of scrimmage.

What Oregon did in the second half was keep the ball away from Oregon St. The Ducks are known for being a quick strike offense that doesn't need a time of possession advantage to generate points and wins, but few teams will win a firefight against the Rodgers brothers and Canfield. Against the Beavers, the Ducks played defense with their offense.

Oregon knew the best way to curb the Rodgers are to have them standing on the sidelines as much of the time as possible. With a boost in their power running game from LeGarrett Blount, Oregon held the ball for about 18 and a half of the last 26 minutes, and over 13 minutes in the last 17 and a half minutes. The Beavers only had one fourth quarter possession.

So limited in their number of opportunities, the weather, in the 20's, resulted in a couple of dropped balls off receivers' hands, resulting in a field goal instead of a probable touchdown, and another stalled drive. And the difference in the game when the Ducks were able to keep the Beavers' offense off the field for over six minutes at the end of the game. Both Kenjon Barner and Masoli won individual matchups, where the OSU defense was in position to make the play, and one on one, just got beat. The Ducks converted three fourth downs in the game, two on the final drive.

4. Much of the rest of the country looks at Oregon as having fashion models, not football players. Has the Oregon fan base embraced the Phil Knight-ification of their football team, or would they rather focus on the game?

The Oregon fan base loves Uncle Phil, who epitomizes the high dollar image most of them aspire to. And if any aspect of the image in any way causes a distraction of any sort, that's just another advantage they gain.

Admit it. You wish he went to your school.

5. What can Buckeye fans do in advance of the game to most annoy Oregon fans?

Remind them of the Stanford and Boise St. games, where they were physically dominated, then talk about how good Washington is going to be soon. It doesn't matter if Washington actually will be good or not; they hate the Huskies, almost as much as the Huskies hate them. Or talk about how college football games should be "dry" events. [ed. note: The Rivalry, Esq. does not and cannot endorse dry sporting events. We encourage Buckeye fans to use the other recommended methods of criticism]

Thank you again to AndyPanda of Building the Dam. We wish the Beavers the best of luck in beating the hell into BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-10 All Conference teams announced: Chip Kelly named COY, LaMichael James offensive freshman of the year

jtlight — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:40:42 -0000

More photos » by Don Ryan - AP

Chip Kelly led the Ducks from disaster to a Pac-10 championship. Congrats on being named coach of the year, Chip!

Browse more photos »

First off, Congratulations to Chip Kelly and LaMichael James, who were given great honors today. Coach Kelly was named the Pac-10 Coach of year, and he undoubtedly deserved it. After the debacle at Boise, Oregon rebounded and won the Pac-10 be two whole games. LaMichael James was named the offensive freshman of the year, setting the Pac-10 rushing record for freshman, and was the most explosive running back in the conference, if not nation.

Rounding out the Ducks on the all conference teams, Ed Dickson was named to the first team, while Jeremiah Masoli, LaMichael James, Will Tukuafu, and Casey Matthews were named to the second team.

I think what the voting for this award proves is that Oregon was by far the best team in the conference. It's pretty shocking that Oregon won the conference by two games, yet only got 5 players onto the all conference teams.

Meanwhile, OSU had 7 players on the first team alone, yet couldn't hang with Oregon in the 4th quarter. UCLA had four players on the first team defense, but had a worse defense than Oregon by almost any statistical measure.

While it would have been nice to see the individuals on the team recognized to a greater degree, Oregon gets to take home the ultimate prize: the Pac-10 championship.

Quack Fix: Ducks hand out season awards, look forward to tOSU, Volleyball falls in NCAA 2nd round

jtlight — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:21:37 -0000

The end of the regular season of college football is always bittersweet, with that magical time coming to an end. But we have something pretty great to look forward to: The Rose Bowl!

Oregon handed out their team awards at a banquet yesterday. Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James shared the award for Mose Outstanding Player, while Will Tukuafu and Walter Thurmond III shared the award for most inspirational. There were a number of other awards handed out and Moseley has some more stories from the event. I'm hoping to see some video of Coach Frost razzing Jeff Maehl.
Yet the celebration will not last long. The Ducks are already looking forward to the matchup with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Kelly has already been watching films of the Big 10 champs, who have the best defense the Ducks have seen this season. However, Kelly does not seem too worried. The Ducks have the versatility on offense to create mismatches all over the field, and have been incredibly successful isolating those all season long.
Meanwhile, Jim Tressel is looking at the Ducks as well, and the focal point defensively will be Jeremiah Masoli, whom Tressel described as "scary." He also stated the the Buckeyes will need to "get in shape" after seeing the quick pace of Oregon's offense. I think the Buckeyes will have problems keeping pace with Oregon over 4 quarters, just as almost every other team has this season.
Lastly, though this is old, for those of you that may have forgotten about when OSU played USC: This is why I am not worried about the OSU offense. I'm very much excited for the Chip Kelly/Jim Tressel coaching matchup.
In other sports news, while we had let some time pass without mentioning Oregon volleyball, they made it to the NCAA tournament, and won a match versus Clemson before falling to the 13th ranked Kentucky Wildcats. It was a great season for the Ducks, who were ranked in the top 25 for nearly the entire season.

After the jump, we have another edition of Inside the Pac, breaking down the Civil War. As always, leave any other Duck news below. GO DUCKS!

Inside the Pac - Civil War Edition

Remembering the Seniors

jtlight — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:00:45 -0000

When we look back on the seniors of 2009, I don't think they will be remembered in the same vein as some of the other Oregon greats. We'll remember 2001 for Joey Harrington. We'll remember 2007 for Dennis Dixon. We'll remember 2008 for the stellar offensive line and Jeremiah Johnson.

But 2009 is different. The face of the offense, LeGarrette Blount, was suspended for most of the season. The face of the defense, Walter Thurmond III, missed most of the season with a knee injury. And this year may end up being known as a year of transition, as successful as this team may end up being.

But this class is something special. They lived through 2006, when the team imploded down the stretch, and carried those lessons forward, helping to bridge the gap between 2007 and 2009, and providing leadership on a very young team.

Without the leadership and production of Walter Thurmond, Ed Dickson, Will Tukuafu, and T.J. Ward this team would not be where it is. On top of this, many other seniors who didn't see the field as much are just as important to the program. Morgan Flint, Andre Crenshaw, Rory Cavaille, Willie Glasper, Blake Ferras, Simi Toeaina, Titus Jackson are vital and productive members of the team, and worked their butts off day in a day out. Their hard work helped pushed other players to that next level. Lastly, we can't forget the contributions of three walk-ons, who all earned scholarships by their seniors years. Riley Showalter, Mike DiVincenzo, and Pono Kam earned their scholarships, and their play on special teams helped give Oregon one of the top special teams units in the conference.

Thanks for the memories guys. You will all be greatly missed. Enjoy your final game at Autzen.

After the jump, we have some videos, to remember the contributions of another special Oregon class.

Ed Dickson

In a long line of great Oregon tight ends, Dickson goes down as the most productive, with big plays over and over again during his career. His catch against Arizona was simply spectacular. Here are some of my favorite Ed Dickson moments:

T.J. Ward

He will be remembered as the enforcer of the Oregon defense, laying hits over and over again, and likely go down as the most YouTube'd Duck of all time (for exploits DURING the football game).

Walter Thurmond III

He had a knack for the big play. I feel cheated that we missed out on most of his senior year.

LeGarrette Blount

We'll ultimately remember Blount for his essentially lost senior year, which is too bad. He was utterly dominant as a change of pace his junior year. So let's remember him for that, and by one of my favorite runs of all time.

I'm sure I missed some big moments, so leave your favorite memories of our seniors in the comments. GO DUCKS!

Quack Fix: Catching up with Azzinaro, the basketball team learns from the football team, Blount reaches out

jtlight — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:24:36 -0000

Well, it's a pretty quiet Friday for the Ducks, which isn't such a bad thing, as the football team gears up for some tough games and the basketball team prepares for the season. Here is today's quack:

SILive.com (a Staten Island news site) has a profile on Jerry Azzinaro, the Duck's new defensive line coach that has had a huge impact on the team this season. He talks a bit about his experience as a Duck and in Eugene, and it sounds positive so far. What I like the best is his relentless drive. He won't let up, and won't let his players, and we've seen the results of that drive on the field.
The Oregon basketball teams is looking to make an impact this season, and is taking a cue from the football team. After taking many lumps last season, the Duck men's basketball team could be poised to turn things around in a big way. With confidence and consistency, this team will be greatly improved, and it will be fun to see what they can do in the Pac-10.
LeGarrette Blount took some time this week to talk to at risk teens about not letting mistakes define who you are. What is also encouraging about this is that Blount stated that this was not part of the mandates discussed by Chip Kelly, but was actually first brought up by Will Tukuafu. It's good to see Blount pulling things together, and good to see him reaching out to help others, something the athletic department (with the Heroes program and Tsunami relief efforts) has excelled at recently.
Ken Goe of the Oregonian isn't heaping the Ducks with praise just yet. And he joins Chip Kelly in that assessment. There are no prizes in mid-October, something Chip has been preaching to his team, and that hard work will be necessary each and every week. The Ducks have shown a great ability to overcome challenge and adversity, something they will need to get through the rest of their schedule.

As always, leave your comments below. GO DUCKS!

Spaulding Roundup: Ducks Coming In As Favorites, Rusty Prince & Questions Around Bruin Defense

Nestor — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:38:45 -0000

Let's pick up where I left off in our roundup from yesterday am. Reading through all the game related articles and posts from Oregon outlets it seems folks who follow the Ducks are pretty comfortable heading into this weekend's game even without Jeremiah Masoli. The sense I get around this game from people who are not UCLA fans is that with Nate Costa in charge it's not a matter of whether they will beat up UCLA, it's just that they won't get to blow the Bruins out. Case in point here is Sam Saig from All Pac-10 blog:

I believe there are many reasons to pick the upset here, but something tells me Oregon will find a way. Costa understands Chip Kelly’s system well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish (just as LaMichael James has been great at RB in place of Blount). The UCLA run defense is good, but Stanford proved that it is not impenetrable. I also love the way Oregon’s defensive front seven is playing, so Prince (or Craft) may be in for a very long day if the pass rush looks like it has over the past couple of weeks.

I see the resilient Ducks pulling this one out in Pasadena.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – UCLA 24

And from his colleague Dave Consolazio:

Even with the injuries, I think Oregon has what it takes to win this game. What it really comes down to is mental toughness, something the Ducks didn’t show a whole lot of the last time they headed out on the road. I’m going to trust them to get the job done this time around; but it’ll come down to the wire.

Prediction: Oregon 27 – UCLA 23

The Sports Network from SBN is essentially making the same prediction:

The Ducks are firing on all cylinders at the moment, but they are in for a fight against UCLA and its stingy defense. Still, Oregon has enough weapons and a solid defense itself, and that should be enough to propel the visiting team to victory.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Oregon 28, UCLA 24

Ted Miller is sticking with conventional wisdom and staying on the Ducks bandwagon:

Oregon 28, UCLA 20: UCLA gets its starting quarterback, Kevin Prince, back. Oregon likely will go with its backup quarterback, Nate Costa. The Ducks are back on the road for the first time since Boise State. UCLA is pretty stout on defense. Lots of reasons suggest a potential upset. But the Ducks have so much momentum, it's hard to jump off the bandwagon.

I understand that lot of UCLA fans will get upset reading those predictions. Hey they bug me to no end either. There is not much we can say right now though, given where our program cratered after years of Toledo and Dorrell's malaise last year and how current coaches are battling to reestablish it piece by piece. The effort up in Palo Alto against a good Stanford team didn't help because of the way Stanford offense dominated our strength - defense - during the first three quarters of the game. So it's pretty reasonable for impartial observers to perceive Oregon as the favorites heading into this Saturday's matchup.

But remember what happened last year up in Eugene. With Masoli and Blount Ducks beat the Bruins by 7 points. They came out and blitzed us early on and went up by a score of 14-0 (man that's a tired, familiar theme for a Bruin defense), yet the Bruins even with Kevin Craft at charge had a shot in the fourth quarter. So it's not unreasonable for uson the other hand to believe we have a decent shot ourselves of pulling out a victory over a solid team this weekend at the Rose Bowl.

Obviously lot of our chances depend on the health of Kevin Prince and the mindset of our defense, which failed to impose their will and make necessary adjustments early on this past weekend, letting the game get away. More on that aftrer the jump.

Let's start with Prince. Jon Gold posted after practice yesterday:

Kevin Prince looked a full day better than yesterday, and it appears that he only really needs to shake off some rustiness, rather than any lingering effects from missing three weeks.

Chris Foster's LAT report was mixed:

Prince struggled through practice, missing on more than a handful of throws. Yet, he also displayed arm strength and was on target enough to be in line to start.

"I didn't make as much progress as I would like," Prince said. "You don't want to miss wide-open receivers. I know where to go with the ball and I don't feel my decision making is leading me astray. It's just accuracy and timing on throws. If I'm not done tomorrow, then I'm going to have to do some extra work Friday to make sure it's right for Saturday."

Needless to say it will be imperative for our OL and RBs to provide adequate protection for Prince tomorrow against a solid Oregon defense. Actually our guys have done a pretty good job of it so far this season but I am sure QB protection is going to be a point of emphasis in this week's practice. Sports Network has more on Oregon's defense which has also taken their game up another notch last couple of weeks:

Last weekend, the Ducks were outstanding on defense as they held WSU to a mere 158 yards of offense, including just 51 through the air. The unit surrendered a measly four first downs and added three takeaways and four sacks to the dominating effort.

"The best thing about this defense is how they compete," said coach Kelly. "They have come to play every game so far and we are going to ride them. We are encouraging where our defense is at right now. They are continuing to build."

Will Tukuafu, who had 7.5 sacks in 2008, finally got on the board with his first two sacks in the blowout win and his emergence is certainly a good thing for the Ducks.

I think one way the UCLA offense can get it going is if they find a way to stretch the Oregon defense. I am not talking about throwing some deep passes (which I am sure we will see with Prince back in action) or calling for short passing plays (which we have seen a lot of under Craft). I think it would be good for our coaches to add on few more dimensions to our running game.

Instead of just getting out backs to explode between the tackles, I'd like them to work in some tosses and stretch plays and run outside. I think we have the speed in Jet Skit, Knox and Thigpen to make that happen. We already saw what Thigpen can do. I remember the move Knox put on the Tenessee defender on a screen pass in Neyland and Jet Ski ... well has the speed. So it would be good to get our backs to run to the outside beat more and have them use their athletcism and speed in open spaces. See what they can do. Just a thought.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side the guys are preparing for both Masoli and Costa:

"You got one guy who's a better passer and one guy who's a better runner," UCLA defensive end Korey Bosworth said. "He'll run that speed option, the other that bubble screen. It's like two different games in one day. What would I rather see? Whatever they've got. Whatever they throw at us."

If it's Costa, the Ducks will almost certainly throw more.

Masoli, and the option comes out.

While Masoli is the better runner and Costa might be more a pure passer, I think the Bruin defense needs to prepare themselves for a multi dimensional thread no matter who is at QB. More importantly and I know I am sounding like a broken record here, they need to come out and make a statement in the first quarter. They haven't done it the entire season and it really caught up with the team this past weekend, when falling behind against a grinding, clock eating offense killed our realistic chances to win the game. Marcia Smith of all people actually has a decent piece on our defense and their mindset heading into the Oregon game:

The Bruins have their statistical walls to throw in front of the Ducks. The defense ranks in the league's upper half in every statistical category: second in scoring allowed (15.5 points per game), third in total yards allowed (281.2), fourth against the pass (192.0) and fifth against the rush (99.2).

Safety Rahim Moore leads the nation in interceptions with five in four games and is tops in the Pac-10 with nine passes defended. Linebacker Reggie Carter ranks sixth in the conference in tackles (7.8 per game). Preseason All-America junior Price, who has drawn double-team attention, ranks third in tackles for loss (seven solo TFLs).

The numbers didn't matter after the defeat, when all the defensive players wanted to do was think about the tackles they missed, the penalties that hurt and, as Price said, "all the times we shot ourselves in the foot."

Pride was what left them in the post-game locker room with their heads hanging the lowest, their postures the most slackened and their words the most self-critical.

Carter said, "We should have held up better against them," while teammate Bosworth looked ahead, saying "We (the players on defense) feel really terrible about what happened here (at Stanford). We're devastated as a unit and, I promise you, we'll be ready for Oregon."

This was pride talking and a program growing. Now the Bruin D just wants to get rid of the sting.

Making a statement right out of the gate this Saturday will certainly help.

GO BRUINS.

Q+A with the California Golden Blogs North

TwistNHook — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:30:31 -0000

"Because we can never be too professional around here" via www.zingerbug.com

We have a great relationship with CGB North (rarely referred to as Addicted To Quack). Not only do they provide us with all the minerals and nutrients we need to life this leisure life-style, but they tell us things. Important things. Like when we have food on our face. Or we need to brush our teeth again.

But, the most important thing they can tell us is information about our upcoming college football game against the Oregon Ducks. So, we've done a Q+A with them. We're posting it now, because we're about to death panel the lot of them and we wanna get this info first. So, check behind the fold for their answers to our questions about the Oregon football team. And here are our answers to their questions. Try to guess which Marshawnthusiasts answered which questions! Yay for BFFs!

1. Is the tradeoff for selling your soul to Phil Knight that you have to wear uniforms that would only be seen at a European technobar?
PaulSF: Last I looked, I believe I saw an University of Oregon student-designed Nike Swoosh on Cal's uniforms. At least we got more than a logo for selling our souls.

2. How has Oregon handled the loss of TJ Ward to injury?
PaulSF: I think the Ducks have handled Ward's absence well. Our defense continues to execute the bend-don't-break philosophy perfectly, and that system relies heavily on smart and patient free safety play. Ward isn't exactly your prototypical free safety, so I'm not sure his absence has been felt as much as you might think.

Redshirt freshman John Boyett from your neck of the woods (Napa, CA) has filled in nicely thus far, but we're going to need Ward back for the highlight reel.

jtlight: As Paul said, the Ducks have done a great job of handling Ward's absence. We have missed his run-stopping, big play ability. However, our pass defense has been improved with his absences. He simply is not a very good cover safety. While Oregon has been able to handle the rushing games of Purdue and Utah without Ward, Cal will be a different story. I don't believe Ward will be 100% for this game, and will not have the impact we'd like, and if he's not 100%, I don't want him to play, because of his pass defense issues. Either way, to me this seems to be a case of picking your poison. If Ward plays, the Cal rushing attack will have a tougher time getting going. But if he doesn't, the Oregon secondary should be stronger. If Ward plays, the cornerbacks and other safety will have to stop Riley and the passing game. If Ward doesn't play, the linebackers will have the massive task of limiting the Cal rushing attack. Either way, it will be very interesting to watch.

3. How has Oregon handled the loss to BSU? Soul crushing? Or ball crushing?
PaulSF: You tell me? We're 2-0 since the Blount Debacle, including a win over then-No. 18 Utah that ended the nation's longest winning streak at 16 games. I think at the end of the season, we might actually look back at that incident and say it helped the Ducks.

jtlight: Agreed. This team could have rolled over and died, but it didn't. They have worked their butts off, and fought hard in every game. That won't be enough to beat Cal, they must execute, but this team won't give up, and that's always fun to watch.

4. Do you agree with Chip Kelly's decision to keep Blount on the team?
PaulSF: Absolutely, but it's about a lot more than keeping him on the team. It's about letting him keep his scholarship. He sent a bold message to the country, future recruits and fans: We'll take away football, but we won't take away your future. I'm not sure most FBS schools would have done the same. From everything I've read, Kelly truly does care about his players beyond just football, and that was yet another excellent example. I'd say it was handled really well, if not too harshly.

5. Often times your secondary receives a lot of hype going into each year. Yet, each year it never seems to play to the level of that hype. Why is that?
PaulSF: I actually get pretty tired of explaining this one, so I'm going to substitute my answer with a short quiz: What part of a team's defense determines its success at stopping its opponent's passing game? Is it A) its secondary; B) its pass rush; or C) its scheme. Obviously all three play a factor, but the pass rush would be the correct answer. Which is why, typically, teams with outstanding offensive lines (read: Oregon in 2008) have a lot of success on offense. The more time a quarterback has to throw the ball, the more likely it is one of his receivers will get open. It's a pretty simple equation, really.

The Ducks only returned one starter on the defensive line this year (Will Tukuafu), so we aren't getting nearly the push up front that we need. That said, we're still having success in the secondary this year because we have some great athletes, namely Walter Thurmond III. So, I guess it's not ALL about the line of scrimmage, but pretty damn near.

jtlight: Also, safety play. I can't stress it enough, but early last season, the passing defense of TJ Ward was simply terrible. Our secondary has looked good this year, despite the lack of a pass rush, because it's not all on the cornerbacks. They have safeties that are making plays and can back them up if they make mistakes.

6. How much blame would you put on Masoli for the Ducks awful passing numbers? How much on the receivers for drops/bad routes? How much on the offensive line for not giving Masoli time to throw? The coaching staff for poor playcalling? Give your answer in terms of percentages, and show your work.
PaulSF: You have to pass the blame around, but I'd rank it like this (in order of biggest effect to littlest effect):
1. Offensive line 40%
2. Timing/execution issues due to the new OC 25%
3. Masoli 15%
tie Receivers 15%
5. Poor play-calling (at least for Oregon's personnel) 5%

jtlight: I am gonna disagree with Paul on this one, mainly because in terms of pass protection, I think that the offensive line has been just fine, and I'd put them to about 15% of the problem, as in most cases, Masoli has had plenty of time.

The rest of the blame can lie on Masoli and the receviers. Both have been put in positions to succeed, and neither have consistently made the plays that are there. Masoli has missed wide open receivers, and when he has gotten them the ball, they haven't held onto it consistently. Masoli has also shown an inability to consistently read his progressions, and has failed to find his best weapon, Ed Dickson.

7. What's with your running backs having names that start with "La"?
PaulSF: You get what you recruit. LaMichael and LeGarrette are southerners, and it's common in southern culture. But don't act like you don't know about it. I'm guessing there are plenty of LaRichards and LeGeorges just south of Berkeley. I've been on that daily Southwest flight from Oakland to Houston, and I considered introducing myself as LaPaul. (Note: JaMarcus Russell was on the same flight. Seriously. You can't make that up.)

8. Tell us of Diante Jackson. We so dearly miss him!

jtlight: He hasn't seen the field at all in a game, and may redshirt, but he's been doing very well in practice. Our own version of JO can't stop praising his scout team work.

Roll On: How Cal's Offense Can Attack Oregon's Defense

Avinash — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:41:29 -0000

I'm so relieved Pac-10 season is here.

It's not that I don't like the OOC schedule; it's always fun to face new teams, and gauge ourselves to other teams around the country. But it makes things easier for me in terms of figuring out offenses and defenses. There's a familiarity with breaking down Arizona that isn't there with Minnesota or even Maryland. Figuring out what type of coverage packages UCLA will throw your way with their excellent secondary, or whether Oregon State is going to gap-cancel the shit out of you, or how many times Oregon will hit you over and over again with their zone read--these things I can deal with, I've seen them before.

Plus speculating about what an offense or defense might or might not do sucks, since there's a good chance you're going to look real stupid by the end of the game. At least here, there's a much better chance of nailing the general gameplan.

Let's get the ball rolling, shall we? We start with Andy Ludwig's Cal offense versus Oregon and Nick Allioti's hard-hitting, ball-hawking, tackle-missing defense.

(Major thanks to ieeebear for cutting videos for this post, you can see them after the jump! He deserves half the credit for the post.)

Oregon's run defense versus Best, Vereen, and Cal's O-line

I can't really dissect this properly, because one player could be the difference between Cal getting bottled up or taking the Ducks to task. You should see him plenty in the reels after the jump.

Hydro mentioned after last year's game how Allotti loved to bring a defensive back to take out the running back. You can see several times the defensive back (usually the free safety, which usually meant TJ Ward) sizing up the hole, then at the moment he senses run, starts targeting like a heat-seeking missile. One of the times the safety missed was when Best broke free for that long gain, albeit it ended in a fumble.

TJ Ward's health is crucial to Oregon's success at containing the run. You can see from this clip above how crucial Ward was in containing Best and Vereen; his ability to sniff out the run and quickly plug the gap kept the running backs from breaking into space. The dropoff is considerable after Ward, and I don't know exactly how the Ducks safeties stack up behind Ward.

You can also see that Oregon hits hard, so Cal's runners have got to be ready to maintain control of that football. Three rushing turnovers last season nearly cost the Bears dearly.

Although Riley appears to be a much better passer than he was a few seasons ago, I expect Oregon to, at least at the outset, play to contain Best and Vereen I doubt we'll see much difference in strategy from last season, especially on 1st and 2nd downs when the probability of run and pass are approximately equal. For all their struggles this season in various areas, one place the Ducks have remained consistent is guarding the run, and you can see from the video that their front seven has been equal to the task of pushing around Cal's usually solid offensive line.

This season there hasn't been a big dropoff. Yes, Boise State gashed them for 164 yards, but they needed FIFTY NINE CARRIES to get there. Utah, Boise State and Purdue are all upper tier schools in rushing yards per carry, and Oregon held them well under their respective averages.

Oregon has held Cal the last two seasons to an average of 3.38 rushing yards per carry, well below our general rushing average. So they've pulled all the stops to contain Forsett in 2007 and Best in 2008. If the Ducks are expected to pull out the stops against the run, the Bears will have to strip them will have to be won through the air.

Cal pass protection versus Oregon pass rush (or How I Am So Fucking Relieved Nick Reed is in the pros).

Reed was a one man wrecking crew in last year's game. Mitchell Schwartz did well for us in relief last year at left tackle, and Reed just chowed him down like moo goo gai pan.

1) First clip, :11-Reed blows by Schwartz, forces Riley to throw the football like a Thanksgiving turkey. I'm not sure whether Riley's trying the Tim Tebow leap pass here. It's close though.
2) :35--Cameron Morrah probably should've blocked a little bit better on that play before moving into receiving mode, Schwartz didn't seem like he had any chance of taking him up and can only manage a few weak arm shoves before Reed targets Riley.
3) :52--Right side completely collapses. Three defenders get untouched to the quarterback, it's a miracle Longshore even got that pass to Tucker.
4) 1:17--Perfect spin technique by Reed to blow by Schwartz, breaks up what might've been a touchdown to Morrah (although a safety was coming in fast).
5) 1:55--Reed lined up to the bottom against Edwards, and he absolutely smokes him. Plus there was a holding call. Safe to say the O-line was scrambling at this point.
6) 2:12--Mitchell is again caught looking with the spin move. GRAPPLE HIM Mitchell.
7) 2:41--"Sorry Mr. Schwartz, I do not want to participate in this tango." Gets up, screen pass broken out.
8) 3:00--Next play, lines up on Edwards, gets in unimpeded, even if a second too late. Longshore gets twirled like a Twizzler.

Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley were dinged around plenty, as they forced bad throws into traffic, or took sacks they shouldn't have taken. He'll make his mark with the Seahawks soon enough.

This year, the roles are reversed. With Reed gone, the responsibility for pass rush was supposed to fall to Will Tukuafu. So far he's been quiet, with fifteen tackles, but none for a loss. Oregon's pass rush this season has been non-existent. The Ducks averaged nearly 3 sacks a game last season, tied for 9th in the country. This year, they only have four through the first three games, along with only three quarterback hurries. Opposing quarterbacks have had their time to throw so far.

Cal's pass protection, however, has only been slightly better than it was last season (on average in terms of sacks, giving up five sacks and several hurries early on. Hopefully with Tepper and a maturing Schwartz, they can protect damaging sacks on the edge. Kenny Rowe (who has 2.5 of Oregon's sacks from the defensive end slot) seems the likeliest to get pressure, so watch what he does against the tackles.

Oregon's pass defense vs. Kevin Riley and his receivers

Defensive coordinator Nick Allotti is not a favorite of Oregon fans. He didn't look exceptionally good after USC's 44-10 trouncing of the Ducks, where Sanchez burned Oregon for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns on 68% completion rate. Although some of it was cover packages, it was also a case of corners cheating to stop the runs, biting on the play-fakes and getting burned for only putting one free safety in deep coverage.

Luckily, neither quarterback for the Bears could throw that well last season. Against Cal you saw a lot of soft zones, a lot of coverage packages determined to keep Best or Vereen from breaking into the screen. On one occasion when Oregon played close up man coverage they were scorched for a touchdown.

(Note: Understand I'm not an expert on defense. If I made any errors in formation or strategy please correct me and I'll edit them in, and attribute you for the help.)

1) (0:05) I think this is a Cover 4 deep (corners are playing back, safeties too). Best way to attack this is the outside flats (between the hash marks and the sideline), and Riley finds a wide-open Tucker along the out of bounds line. This could also be zone coverage (much like what Gregory runs on passing downs), since the corner seems to be playing a particular zone, trying to make the quarterback complete the throw. Also he could be trying to prevent a long run from the quarterback.

2) (0:36) Again, Riley targets the sideline to Tucker, who makes a great adjustment on the ball

3) (1:02) I believe this is Cover 1 Free (free safety is back to watch both sides of the field, see the replay at 1:19). Oregon stacks. Riley checks off the receiver on the strong side, freezes the free safety (notice him trailing to the top, where Riley's eyes are focused), then goes back and find Ross with a perfect strike. It helps that Wlater Thurmond was slow in recovering to Ross's original move.

4) (1:32) Iffy interference call on Thurmond, who seemed to play Tucker very well on the play, but it does show the benefit of having a receiver who can elevate on a dime and make it tough for the ref to judge whether the defender came too early or not.

5) (1:56) 3-2 Dime package. Six defensive backs and Longshore routinely completes a 4th and 14 on man-to-man? Talmadge Jackson III had some real passive coverage on this one. This play surprised me the most. (Note: Jackson will be Oregon's other corner in this game).

6) (2:23) 4-1 Dime package. Again another great pass to the sidelines to Sean Young, as Oregon's defense seems determined to play their zones and dare Cal's quarterbacks to make that throw to the sidelines. So far Riley and Longshore have converted three crucial 3rd downs aiming at the outside flats, two that broke down the zones in the right places (one was just a great adjustment and catch by Tucker).

7) (3:02) This should be noted for all Nate-haters out there, but Longshore KILLED Oregon. He didn't have achieve greatness by any means (13 for 27, 1 TD), but over his career he threw for a solid 57% completion rate, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. You can get a sense of how he did it from plays like this; his ability to break down zone defenses and read coverages was impeccable. Danzig has more on his 2006-2007 exploits here.

8) (3:50) Another break down of the zone coverage at the sidelines to Tucker. I'm guessing we might see this play a bit.

Note to self: Watch Verran Tucker (who I assume will be the #1 receiver) versus Walter Thurmond, who I'm guessing will be assigned to him. This is a critical assignment for Thurmond, who must bottle up Tucker on man packages so the rest of the coverage can focus more on Marvin Jones and Ross.

The Ducks have played aggressive, breaking up 19 passes (top 10 in the nation!), including four interceptions, but I'd be very surprised to see Aliotti utilize a man-on-man strategy and not go back to deep coverage zones. Riley isn't Sanchez 2008, but he has been capable of throwing the deep ball properly this season. Expect plenty of cover schemes on obvious passing downs, in addition to the base 4-3 Oregon runs.

If Ludwig can show the multiplicity that he displayed in last week, will Oregon's secondary be able to read and react? The last three seasons the Ducks have lost the Bears game in spite of slowing the run game. It's been their touted corners and safeties who haven't been able to finish off Cal's receivers.

If Kevin Riley can throw a precise, 63-65% completion rate against Oregon's zone coverages, or open up the deep routes, which will in turn force more defensive backs into the game, which will in turn allow the offensive line easier blocking...it's Duck season.

Coming soon: Breaking down Oregon's zone read.

Poll

Who has to be the best offensive performer for the Bears to beat Oregon?

Kevin Riley

145 votes

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen

81 votes

The receivers (Tucker, Jones and Ross)

32 votes

The offensive line

111 votes

369 votes | Poll has closed

ATQ 2009 Football Preseason Awards

JConant — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:00:16 -0000

A few of us ATQers got together and voted on a variety of preseason awards. All in good fun. At the end of the season we'll do it all over again and see how preseason predictions compare to post-season results. Thanks to jtlight, ntrebon, dvieira, PaulSF and Addicted to Quack.

Nominees and winners after the jump...

Most Valuable Player

LeGarrette Blount, Ed Dickson, Jeremiah Masoli, Walter Thurmond III, T.J. Ward

Winner: Jeremiah Masoli
Runner up: LeGarrette Blount

Offensive Player of the Year

LeGarrette Blount, Ed Dickson, Jamere Holland, Jeff Maehl, Jeremiah Masoli

Winner: LeGarrette Blount, Jeremiah Masoli (tie)

Defensive Player of the Year

Casey Matthews, Spencer Paysinger, Walter Thurmond III, Will Tukuafu, T.J. Ward

Winner: Walter Thurmond III
Runner up: Will Tukuafu, T.J. Ward

Offensive Newcomer of the Year (includes '08 red shirts)

Tyrece Gaines, LaMichael James, Diante Jackson, Carson York

Winner: LaMichael James (unanimous)

Defensive Newcomer of the Year (includes '08 red shirts)

Zac Clark, Scott Grady, Bryson Littlejohn, Terrance Montgomery

Winner: Bryson Littlejohn
Runner up: Terrance Montgomery

Freshman Player of the Year

Everett Benyard, Blake Cantu, Michael Clay, Diante Jackson, Jackson Rice

Winner: Jackson Rice
Runner up: Diante Jackson

Most Improved - Offense

Rory Cavaille, Andre Crenshaw, Garrett Embry, Jamere Holland, Jordan Holmes, David Paulson

Winner: Jamere Holland
Runner up: Jordan Holmes

Most Improved - Defense

Brandon Bair, Blake Ferras, Talmadge Jackson III, Casey Matthews, Eddie Pleasant, Kenny Rowe, Javes Lewis

Winner: Brandon Bair
Runner up: Jackson III, Matthews, Rowe, Lewis

Position Coach of the Year

Jerry Azzinaro, Steve Greatwood, Mark Helfrich, John Neal, Don Pellum, Nick Aliotti

Winner: Jerry Azzinaro
Runner up: Steve Greatwood

So, how did we do? If we blew it or nailed it, let us hear about it in the comments. Who are the players you're most looking forward to watch this season and why?

Opponent preview: Will Oregon stifle the Bronco ground game again?

Kevan Lee — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 18:08:22 -0000

The Duralog of Boise State good vibes that is still burning from last season's win over Oregon is just about finished. The warm fuzzies end Thursday night when a new chapter in the incredibly short, two-chapter book on Ducks vs. Broncos (tentatively titled: Quit hitting me: the Jeremiah Masoli story) is written.

Football is almost here, but it's not the same football that any other school in the country (except for maybe VaTech and Alabama) has been looking forward to. This game has huge ramifications for Boise State's BCS hopes. It has huge ramifications for LaGarrette Blount's MySpace friend requests. And there are about a billion different ways you can look at the matchup.

I've chosen one of the most overlooked, but one that I feel could become very important: Oregon's run defense. Let's talk about it, and feel free to add your most important factor in the comments.

No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State

Kickoff: 8:15MT, TV: ESPN, Radio: 580 KIDO

Weather forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 90 during the day

Spread: Boise State -5

Starting Offense

WR Jamere Holland
WR Jeff Maehl	Leading returning wide receiver (39 recs, 421 yards)
WR Garrett Embry
TE Ed Dickson	John Mackey Award watch list
LT Bo Thran
LG Carson York	Redshirt freshman
C Jordan Holmes
RG Mark Asper	6'7", 323 pounds
RT C.E. Kaiser	Most returning experience on offensive line
QB Jeremiah Masoli	The consensus best QB in the Pac-10
RB LeGarrette Blount	7.3 average, 17 TDs in 2008

The Oregon offense is Jeremiah Masoli, for better or for worse. There are loads of talented skill players around him and a green offensive line in front of him, but Masoli is the heart of the Duck attack. If he is on his game, he is one of the best in the country. If he is on his back, then Ryan Winterswyk WIN!

Starting defense

DE Will Tukuafu	Second-team PAC-10 in 2008
DT Brandon Bair
DT Blake Ferras	6'6", 290 pounds
DE Kenny Rowe
OLB Eddie Pleasant
MLB Casey Matthews	Took over from starter John Bacon six games into 2008 season
OLB Spencer Paysinger	95 tackles as redshirt freshman in 2008
CB Walter Thurmond III	Jim Thorpe Award watch list
CB Talmadge Jackson III
FS T.J. Ward	Preseason all-Pac-10
ROV Javes Lewis

There will be up to five first-timers on the Ducks' starting defense on Thursday, but that isn't to say that this unit is short on talent. A loaded linebacker corps is the meat, T.J. Ward is the special sauce, and veterans like Thurmond and Tukuafu are the bread that holds the whole thing together. Still, the sandwich seems to be missing something. Game experience, maybe?

Special teams

P Jackson Rice	true freshman, making his first college start
K Morgan Flint
KR Walter Thurmond III
KR LaMichael James	Really fast and quick
PR Kenjon Barner

This has nothing to do with special teams, but I thought I should mention Oregon's tazer players: LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. The tazer is Oregon's answer to traditional football positions; it's an athlete who can make plays from anywhere. Get ready to hear this term about 20 times on the ESPN broadcast.

What happened last season

via media.idahostatesman.com

Boise State ran for 38 yards on 35 carries (1.1 average) with one touchdown and a long rush of eight.

Credit the Oregon defense for taking away the run and making Kellen Moore beat them. Credit Kellen Moore for beating them. Credit me for not injuring myself mid-fistpump. Credit Mike Bellotti for that immaculate goatee. And when you're done crediting people, know this: The Bronco offensive line really struggled moving Oregon defenders out of the way and creating holes for the backs. Was it a size/strength issue, similar TCU truck that hit the Broncos? Was it something wrong with the backs?

I'm siding with size and strength (or am I siding against it?). Boise State's O-line looked just fine protecting Kellen Moore on passing plays. The issue wasn't form or technique. It was owning the line of scrimmage that really went Oregon's way. Nothing shows this more than the statistics from Oregons' defensive line. Typically, linebackers lead the team in tackles, or when prolific passing offenses take to the air, players in the secondary get big tackle totals. Rarely do you see it happen along the defensive line.

However, Oregon's D-line really filled the stat box, with one player tying for team lead in tackles and another racking up an inordinate amount of tackles for loss. Combined, four members of Oregon's defensive line - Ra'Shon Harris, Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and Cole Linehan - recorded 26 tackles, six TFLs, and one sack. Incredible.

What has changed over the past 12 months

Attrition has struck both the Oregon D-line and the Boise State O-line. The Broncos lost all-conference G/T Andrew Woodruff and his bearded buddy John Gott. The Ducks graduated Reed, Linehan, and Harris, in addition to linebackers Jerome Boyd and John Bacon.

Reed is the most notable absence along the Oregon defensive front. He was an All-American last year, recording 13 sacks, 7 TFLs, and five FR, but his departure might not be the most important hole up front for the Ducks. Both defensive tackles, Linehan and Harris, are gone, leaving a big void for a rotation of JCs and others to fill. Blake Ferras leads a merry-go-round at the position that will sub in as many as four at defensive tackle. The Ducks replace Reed with inexperienced junior Kenny Rowe.

Boise State's O-line has a new look again, just as it did in virtually every game last season. The Broncos will start the year with first-timers Michael Ames and Will Lawrence in the lineup. The other three positions return experience from last year, including center stud Thomas Byrd. Kevin Sapien and Matt Slater are the other two starters, and Nate Potter might see the field in optimal false start packages.

Spotlight on: DE Will Tukuafu

via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

Reed wasn't the biggest terror against the Broncos last season. It was Tukuafu, the JC transfer who recorded six solo tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and one sack against Boise State. He was a handful, in part because the Broncos paid a lot of attention to Nick Reed, and in part because the guy is just a stud.

Coming out of Scottsdale CC, Tukuafu was ranked as one of the two best DL JCs in the nation and reached as high as No. 7 overall on Rivals list of JC players. He was originally recruited by BYU, going so far as to sign a letter of intent with the school. He chose to take a two-year mission instead, and found himself on the CC route when he returned. Thanks to his time away, he is now listed as the oldest player on the Oregon roster at age 25.

His old man strength serves him well. At least, that's what I attribute his being able to sack Jake Locker one-handed.

Tukuafu, a team captain this season and the only returning starter on the defensive line, could be lined up often against Ames, playing in his first actual game in two years. How will Ames handle the new guy? Is Tukuafu's presence the reason why Tommy Gallarda was picked to start at TE against the Ducks? What will the coaching staff do to handle this matchup? I'd like to know your thoughts because none of mine end well.

Can Boise State beat Oregon without an effective running game?

Ah, one of the cruxes.

Well, the obvious answer last year was yes. Boise State would have done just as well letting Kellen Moore fall forward every time they called a running play, and still the Broncos built a 24-point lead and hung on for a win in Eugene. The running game was not needed to win. It would have been nice to have around, especially when BSU needed to salt away some time late in the game. It also might have helped Ian Johnson get drafted, but oh well.

The Broncos proved time and again that they didn't need the running game to be successful last year. But was that a product of their easy schedule? How many times out of 100 would the Broncos beat the Ducks by only running for one yard per carry?

It's nice to dwell on the win from last year, but this is not last year's Bronco team (or Duck team, for that matter). One of the most disconcerting parts of this discussion is that we don't know how the Broncos will perform this year. What do you think? Is the 2009 BSU team built to win without the running game?

The signs seem to say yes. Kellen Moore should be improved over last year, which is just an impossibly crazy idea. The Oregon secondary might be the team's biggest weakness, and with the Boise State's passing game being their biggest strength, well, I'll let you draw your own conclusions. Where the running game really makes its money is if the Broncos get a lead late in the game. As my friends at Football Outsiders love to point out, "You run when you win, you don't win when you run." Let me let them explain.

The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of "establishing the run." There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.

In general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

Thoughts on this?

How will Oregon defend the Broncos

Of course, Oregon's run defense is not just limited to the four guys up front. The Ducks have a deep and talented linebacker trio as well with Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, and Eddie Pleasant. These three players could be the key to making up for the inexperience along the defensive line.

Also, Oregon has the luxury of bringing in rover person Javes Lewis (and sometimes Marvin Johnson) to support the run from his quasi-safety position. At times, Boise State could see eight in the box. But will they?

Given how coolly Kellen Moore shred the Oregon defense last season, you have to wonder if the Ducks won't try to take away the pass and make the Broncos beat them on the ground. This will be fascinating to watch. Seriously, watch it. In the first couple series of the game, strategies should be clear, and you should be able to tell which direction these teams are going. Does Boise State have what it takes to fashion a successful running game off of a traditional seven-man front?

How will Boise State come out against the Ducks

The Broncos could come out with guns a-blazing, using the pass to set up the run. We saw in previous games last year that BSU is not afraid to completely abandon the run in favor of chewing up yards through the air. If it's not working, coaches seem to think, then why hammer it down.

In scrimmages this fall, the passing offense seemed to be a step ahead of the rushing O, and potential starter Jeremy Avery was absent from it all. He even slipped a little on the depth chart into 1A status slightly above 1B D.J. Harper. Both backs are very talented. But you have to wonder how much faith the Broncos have in their running game at this point.

Also, there is more than one way to run the ball. Boise State loves its flare passes and bubble screens that work as basically extended hand-offs. These often get just as many, if not more yards than actually running the ball. Boise State could use this extensively.

How do you think the Bronco running game is feeling at this point?

Other factors in the Oregon run defense debate

Crowd noise. Running games tend to struggle on the road because they cannot hear the snap count and therefore lose that advantage. This won't be the case on Thursday night, provided I can shut up the "Whose House" guy at appropriate times.
Backs that hit the hole. Not to say that Ian Johnson was a poor runner, but he definitely was better suited to run behind a line that allowed him to get up a head of steam. Avery and Harper can go from 0-60 in nothing flat, so that could be a factor in the run game.
Misdirection and gadget plays. Boise State can keep defenses honest with many different looks. If the line wins individual battles, this can lead to big plays.
Playing with a lead or coming from behind. Depending on which team is in which position, the running game could either be a huge focus or a superfluous afterthought.
Richie Brockel. He's really good, and he could be lined up at fullback a lot more than we're used to seeing.
Kellen Moore audibles. Will he be smart enough to check into a high-success running play? That was a stupid question. Forget I asked.

Are there some other factors that I overlooked or failed to mention?

The bazillion other factors that could determine the outcome of the game

The Oregon run defense is just one of a myriad of little battles that could mean win it or lose it for either team. Do you have a factor or matchup that you'll be watching? Here are some others I thought of off the top of my head.

Special teams, and in particular, Kyle Wilson returning punts
Oregon skill players LeGarrette Blount, LaMichael James - they're apparently fast and good
Jeremiah Masoli vs. Boise State secondary - Will the game be won or lost here?
Coaching - Advantage: the guy who has coached before

There are loads more. Which one are you looking at?

Conclusions

So many different things could happen on Thursday, rendering any one of these conclusions irrelevant or prophetic. I'm hoping for the latter.

Which of the following conclusions are you?

Boise State's offensive line will dominate an inexperienced Oregon defensive line, the Broncos will control the line of scrimmage, and the running game will be a solid option for the fourth quarter
Oregon's defensive line will overpower a young Boise State offensive line, the Ducks will control the line of scrimmage, and the Broncos will be forced to pass if they want to gain yards
The Broncos and Ducks will exchange good plays, canceling out the impact of the running game, and putting the focus onto another big matchup
Michael Ames will have a big game
Michael Ames will have a bad game
Will Tukuafu will have a big game
Will Tukuafu will have a bad game

I'm just getting warmed up with conclusions, but I should probably stop there. How do you guys see this matchup playing out? Where on the scale of importance does it fall? What factors did I miss? What players should I have mentioned? And most importantly ...

.. are you ready to finally get this thing over with?