SB Nation - Tim Clark

The Enemy of My Enemy, Part I: The Rose Bowl

Bama Hawkeye — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:15:09 -0000

As we begin preparing for the year in which the Big Ten shocks the college football world by winning five of its seven bowls, let's learn about the opponents. Oh sure, we could turn to the fans of our opponents and ask them questions about their beloved cats, birds, and bees. But this site was founded upon the idea of rivals. That's why we're talking with our opponents' rivals. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As we look at the Rose Bowl, AndyPanda of the outstanding Oregon State blog, Building the Dam, was kind enough to answer these questions that we had about the hated Oregon Ducks.

1. What schemes worked best for you on defense against Oregon's motion Pistol, spread sweeps, and zone read attack?

The key to contending with Coach Chip Kelley's spread option read offense is to play assignment football, and maintain gap and assignment discipline, and do it all night long. A traditional style pro defense. You cannot over-pursue, and one step can be too much, as the speed Oregon has will run into, or cut back thru, any gap a mistake opens. The Ducks' offense is predicated on option reads, and Jeremiah Masoli is a master at quick recognition and decision making.

Masoli isn't an exceptional thrower, but he is good enough to capitalize on an assignment error, as was evidenced when OSU's James Dockery over-committed on Jeff Maehl, and there was no safety support. The result was an immediate over the top 73 yard touchdown.

And while Masoli is rightly known for his running ability, his reads can just as easily result in someone else being the star. With cornerback Tim Clark already out with a broken leg, all conference Keaton Kristick missed only one play with a tweaked wrist. Masoli immediately sent LaMichael James thru where Kristick and Clark would have been for a 52 yard touchdown.

Those two plays, one break down, and one where a personnel vulnerability existed, were the difference in the game, producing over a quarter of the Ducks' total yards, and underscoring how important it is to maintain discipline against Oregon's offense on every play.

2. What's going to happen when Ohio State's (C) Michael Brewster (296 lbs), (RG), Bryant Browning (312 lbs), (LG) Justin Boren (315 lbs), (LT) J.B. Shugarts (298 lbs), and (RT) Jim Cordle (297 lbs) line up against Oregon's (LDT) Brandon Bair (250 lbs) (RDT) Blake Ferras (290 lbs), (RDE) Kenny Rowe (230 lbs), and (LDE) Will Tukuafu (272 lbs)? That's an average of 43 pounds difference at each position. Do the Buckeyes get burnt, or does Oregon get crushed?

A variety of blitzes and stunts will happen. The Oregon linebacking crew of Eddie Pleasant, Casey Matthews, and Spencer Paysinger are fast enough that they can come from anywhere, and if an offensive line releases to pick up the blitz, Tukuafu is strong enough, and Rowe is fast enough, to recover despite being initially stopped, and still make the play.

A sustained power running game can work against the Ducks, as Stanford demonstrated, but it must start with an effective passing game that pushes back Oregon's back seven. The key to overcoming the Duck defense is to prevent them from running toward the line of scrimmage, which allows them to capitalize on their speed.

3. The Beavers put 30 points up on the Ducks in the first 35 minutes of the game. The final 25 minutes saw the Beavers only get a field goal. How was OSU able to dominate the Ducks early, and what did Oregon do late to turn the tide?

Early on, Oregon St. quarterback Sean Canfield was on, and by completing a number of passes, was able to keep the Oregon defense backpedaling much of the time, not attacking the line of scrimmage.

What Oregon did in the second half was keep the ball away from Oregon St. The Ducks are known for being a quick strike offense that doesn't need a time of possession advantage to generate points and wins, but few teams will win a firefight against the Rodgers brothers and Canfield. Against the Beavers, the Ducks played defense with their offense.

Oregon knew the best way to curb the Rodgers are to have them standing on the sidelines as much of the time as possible. With a boost in their power running game from LeGarrett Blount, Oregon held the ball for about 18 and a half of the last 26 minutes, and over 13 minutes in the last 17 and a half minutes. The Beavers only had one fourth quarter possession.

So limited in their number of opportunities, the weather, in the 20's, resulted in a couple of dropped balls off receivers' hands, resulting in a field goal instead of a probable touchdown, and another stalled drive. And the difference in the game when the Ducks were able to keep the Beavers' offense off the field for over six minutes at the end of the game. Both Kenjon Barner and Masoli won individual matchups, where the OSU defense was in position to make the play, and one on one, just got beat. The Ducks converted three fourth downs in the game, two on the final drive.

4. Much of the rest of the country looks at Oregon as having fashion models, not football players. Has the Oregon fan base embraced the Phil Knight-ification of their football team, or would they rather focus on the game?

The Oregon fan base loves Uncle Phil, who epitomizes the high dollar image most of them aspire to. And if any aspect of the image in any way causes a distraction of any sort, that's just another advantage they gain.

Admit it. You wish he went to your school.

5. What can Buckeye fans do in advance of the game to most annoy Oregon fans?

Remind them of the Stanford and Boise St. games, where they were physically dominated, then talk about how good Washington is going to be soon. It doesn't matter if Washington actually will be good or not; they hate the Huskies, almost as much as the Huskies hate them. Or talk about how college football games should be "dry" events. [ed. note: The Rivalry, Esq. does not and cannot endorse dry sporting events. We encourage Buckeye fans to use the other recommended methods of criticism]

Thank you again to AndyPanda of Building the Dam. We wish the Beavers the best of luck in beating the hell into BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Second Half Gets Serious

AndyPanda — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:08:36 -0000

In the second half, things got serious, though it was the fourth quarter before the shootout started. UCLA's Kai Forbath connected on a field goal on UCLA's first drive after the break, but Oregon St.'s Justin Kahut came up just short, due to a delay of game penalty. The Bruins' special teams kept a lot of green turf in front of the Beavers, and it was early in the fourth quarter of the quickest moving game of the season before Kahut connected again, giving Beaver fans a false sense of security with ten minutes left, and a 16 point lead.

Then came the UCLA highlight tape. Bruin quarteback found Nelson Rosario, who made a spectacular leaping one handed catch over James Dockery, and turned and romped for a 58 yard touchdown.

Prince promptly found Rosario again, and the two point conversion cut the lead in half.

After the Bruin defense forced the Beavers into a 1-2-3 punt, a penalty for having 12 players on the field on the Bruins' punt set up the tieing score. Oregon St. Coach Mike Riley attributed the second of the games' two key special teams penalties (the other came when a fake punt play didn't get underway before the play clock ran out), to having two different punt return personnel groups mistakenly on the field at the same time.

We committed one of the biggest sins in football, having too many men on the field when we had gotten the ball back (after a UCLA punt).

It took a little while, as Stephen Paea got one of four sacks of Prince, which equaled the total the Beavers had accumulated all season.

The penalty disparity, where Oregon St. was flagged 10 times, to only two on the Bruins, was partially due to Beaver mistakes, and its hard to make sinister assumptions, considering the crew chief was from Portland, and has both Rose Bowl and championship games on his resume, but perhaps the tieing score should have been more difficult.

It's easy to criticize Pac-10 officiating, but it appears there may possibly have been holding on the right side, which would have made for a longer touchdown throw to Taylor Embree, who out-jumped Tim Clark.

The Beavers still led by two points, but Prince found Jonah Franklin for the two point conversion, and it was game on!

It appears there may have been a block in the back that went undetected on the game tieing play.

Oregon St. quarterback Sean Canfield got the chance he didn't against USC though, and got the chance for a game winning drive, sparked by James Rodgers' 27 yard kickoff return.

Jacquizz Rodgers picked up 22 yards on a run,

...and Joe Halahuni had a 15 yard catch,

...setting up James Rodgers' sweep,

for the game winning touchdown that put Oregon St. up 26-19.

UCLA did drive again, putting themselves in scoring position, and the center of the secondary was targeted. This may have been an over-adjustment, considering the defensive breakdowns in some prior games, most notably at UNLV, were due to the center of the secondary being deep to guard against the big play, and opposition offenses repeatedly attacked underneath the coverage.

On the last three Bruin drives, there were several situations where the Beaver safeties were either missing, or so far up they were left with poor pursuit angles. Considering that UCLA, ranked 104th. in the nation in rushing, had not mounted a major rushing threat all day, gaining only 51 net yards, and that the only thing that could truly hurt Oregon St. were big plays deep, it was a puzzling defensive deployment.

However, the game ended with Prince unable to get the ball to his open primary receiver, due to pressure from the Beavers pass rush.

Despite a showery morning, the challenges from the Bruins, too many penalties, and the smallest crowd of the last two years (only 41,009 showed for a game they couldn't watch live on TV, much to the surprise and chagrin of Athletic Director Bob DeCarolis, who though he had all the makings for a sellout), it was still a pretty good day to be a Beaver. Que the Fight Song!

Oregon St. Notes, Byers starts over O'Dowd, RoJo will start on Sat. as well

Paragon SC — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:13:49 -0000

There was some interesting news from the coaching staff yesterday...

Jeff Byers will start at center over Kristofer O'Dowd. This might be a shock to some but the running game doesn't seem to be where many of us think it should be.

The season has not gone as planned for the 6-foot-5, 300-pound O'Dowd, who had off-season shoulder surgery that caused him to miss spring practice and then suffered a dislocated kneecap for the second time in three seasons.

O'Dowd sat out the opener against San Jose State but returned to play against Ohio State.

"I tried to fight back and got back as quickly as I could, but it still wasn't necessarily 100%," he said. "I was hoping that by going out there and working on it, I would build it up to where it would get back to normal, but it just hasn't been the case."

Byers, who came to USC as a center in 2004, took the majority of snaps with the first-team offense during practice this week. He will start for the second time this season at center.

I am not surprised that he was not 100%. A dislocated patella is a tricky injury to recover from, especially if you re-injure it. O'Dowd is looking at some off-season knee surgery to fix the damaged structures.

The great thing in this article is that O'Dowd plans on returning for his senior season.

Opposing defenses have been able to get penetration on our running game this season. We have seen it in a number of different games. With Marc Tyler out of the season and C.J. Gable inexplicably still in the doghouse it all falls on Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford. It is possible that we could see Curtis McNeal in the game but with Stanley Havili pretty much questionable that opens up the door for D.J. Shoemate at the FB spot. Regardless of who is on the field the O line needs to blow some holes open to get these guys some room to operate.

From what I have seen it would appear that McKnight actually does pretty well when runs between the tackles. When he jukes and moves trying to get to the outside is when he seems to not be less effective...this is particularly true (obviously) when the defense can beat him to the outside.

The offense is really close to busting out...If the running game gets rolling we could see some some really interesting games in the second half of the season.

USC closed the first half of '09 with its strongest offensive performance since the season opener (which was against 1-5 San Jose State, so please feel free to affix an asterisk). The Trojans scored 34 points at Notre Dame – after scoring 30 at Cal, 27 against Washington State and 13 at Washington.

Barkley missed the Washington game – the lone loss on 5-1 USC's ledger – because of a shoulder injury. In his four games since the opener, he has mirrored the offense's ascent.

Barkley passed for 195 yards Sept. 12 at Ohio State. He nearly doubled that total – 380 – at Notre Dame.

Barkley completed 48.4 percent of his passes against the Buckeyes. He hit on 65.5 percent – again, the best since San Jose State – against the Fighting Irish.

Yet in a sign of how driven he is to succeed – and how he is raising the standard for every freshman quarterback to follow him – Barkley was far from satisfied with his performance.

"I've got more potential in me," Barkley said. "After watching tape on Saturday's game, it was a lot more scrappy than I thought it was, not as pristine. There's always stuff to improve on. ... There are some little things we need to work on in order to get better."

I don't think there is any question that Barkley has some growing to do.

He has come a long way for a true freshman...just going on the road and getting the win at Ohio St. and Notre Dame with minimal mistakes shows his maturity.

And Barkley learns fast as well...

USC twice ran play-action passes on third-and-1. The first time, tight end Anthony McCoy was open – but Barkley didn't set his feet and underthrew the pass. McCoy gained 23 yards, but it could have been a lot more.

The next time, McCoy again was open – and Barkley delivered a strike. McCoy rumbled downfield for 60 yards. It took all of a quarter for Barkley to learn his lesson and make the proper adjustment.

"The kid is doing great," senior guard Jeff Byers said. "He impresses me every day. He's a really special guy back there. He's playing his butt off."

That Barkley has won over his veteran teammates isn't insignificant. USC returned nine starters on offense, and the unit had great expectations despite one of the losses being All-Pac-10 quarterback Mark Sanchez, whom the New York Jets took with the fifth pick in the NFL draft.

When Carroll elevated Barkley over redshirt sophomore Aaron Corp – who won the job in spring but lost it in fall after breaking his leg – there were hints of skepticism inside the locker room and heaps of it outside. The Trojans entered 2009 with seven consecutive conference crowns, BCS bowl berths and 11-plus-victory seasons, and now they were entrusting a freshman to help make it eight?

I don't think anyone is questioning PC's move now are they? Barkley has done good enough to shut the mouths of clowns like the insufferable Matt Hayes who constantly tried to say that Barkley's inexperience would hurt SC. So far that hasn't been the case and while I am not ready to say that he is not susceptible to a rookie mistake Barkley has done a remarkable job at leading the offense.

SC needs to put some points up on the board early to force The Beavers to have to play catch up and the running game is key to putting points up on the board. More on why later...

USC also gets RoJo back in the starting line up on Saturday.

Receiver Ronald Johnson struggled to regain game speed against Notre Dame and acknowledged continued soreness early this week.

The junior, however, will start against Oregon State, Carroll said.

Johnson, who suffered a broken collarbone before the season, had one reception against Notre Dame.

Johnson replaces David Ausberry in the starting lineup. Ausberry, who has 10 receptions, has been slowed this week by a calf strain.

I think that is a big deal.

RoJo clearly was not himself against ND, nor did I expect him to be. I think he needed a little more time to get back into the groove in regards to his timing and route running. You just don't come back after being out six weeks and hope to perform at the same level that you were out prior to your injury, especially in a big game like Notre Dame at South Bend. We all know RoJo is our speedster and if he is on that will keep the OSU defense honest. If RoJo gets behind their DB's it could spell trouble for Oregon St. especially with Barkley getting better and better each week.

On the defensive side of the ball this weeks game is a big test for the USC defense.

Last year the D line was embarrassed by Jacquizz Rodgers. Averill SPicer and Christian Tupou both had bad games last year, they had no answer for him in the first half, though SC made some adjustments in the second half to contain 'Quizz better. They moved Casey to the NT spot and moved Ellison up into the box. I could go on...

This is a very stout D line that SC has coming into this game. With Casey at NT and Armond Armstead (probably right nest to Casey) back in the groove from his injury I think that 'Quizz will have a tougher time than he did last year. It will be more difficult than last year to get the type of yardage that he had last year. I also want to see how Everson Griffen plays in this game. Last season he was continually motion-blocked by James Rodgers and taken out of the play. Hopefully Jethro Franklin has brought Griffen along to be able to handle that wrinkle in the OSU offense.

I think 'Quizz will get some yards and he won't put the ball on the turf, but I think this is a better front seven for this game than what we had last year by just putting in Casey and Armstead over Tupou and Spicer (no offense gents). The speed of this years D line is just insane. We already have seen their speed but I think the LB's are less susceptible to over running the play like we say Rey do last season in Corvallis. The OSU O line lost three players to the NFL last season, not that it matters, so while they still have some talent it is not quite as experienced as last season if SC gets some points on the board early it could force OSU to use 'Quizz less if they have to play catch up by airing it out.

Lets talk a little bit about some players on Oregon St.

There is an interesting article up at the Oregonian discussing Oregon St. players who feel they were snubbed by not being recruited by USC.

I found these comments by Beavers OL Gregg Peat...(emphasis added)

"Not even a second glance," Peat said. "Pete Carroll was there and I'm sure (he watched me) and was like, 'Ah, um, no.' They recruit the best of the best and none of us are usually their caliber of player.

"Or so they think."

Peat's recruiting anecdote is common among Oregon State players who played high school ball in the Southern California area. A handful of them, like senior corner Tim Clark, who is from Compton, and safety Lance Mitchell, who is from Pasadena, grew up in USC's backyard -- but they didn't get a sniff from the Trojans.

"I think not being recruited by your hometown team is a little bit of a slap in the face," Mitchell said.

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Blah, Blah, Blah.

Please...

Peat has turned into a fine player, no question. Some players need a few years at the college level to really blossom and Peat looks to be one of those. Look, I get it that these guys will try to use what they feel is "snub" as some motivation for this game but SC can't recruit them all. Pete Carroll and his staff can't look into the crystal ball and see how every player out there will turn out.

More interesting is this...

Peat originally committed to Nevada before accepting an offer from the Beavers without ever taking a visit. Nevada? Really? That is a real power house of football...I guess SC really missed out when the kid committed up there, I am sure they scrambled to steal him from Nevada.

</sarcasm>

So, yeah PC may "have seen him" when he was recruiting Mark Sanchez but does anyone think that Peat would be on the field now with all the other talent SC has on the O line? There are only 85 schollies so I am not sure who SC should have NOT recruited on the OL in place of Peat. Point being is simple...everyone gets up to play USC. If these guys want use a supposed "snub" about not being recruited then so be it. I wish them luck...

I think this will be a great game and if all the mini drama's help to make it a better game than that is fine with me.

Week 6 College Football Evening Open Thread + Cal-Wazzu Women's Volleyball

Avinash — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 22:58:01 -0000

Don't forget to fill out our feedback form!

via cache.gawker.com

There's no secret as to what the Beavers defense is focusing on stopping Saturday night in Reser.

You can imagine that Oregon State defensive coordinator Mark Banker is staying up late this week, formulating a plan to stop the Pac-10's top rusher and Stanford's smash-mouth attack. Gerhart gave the Beavers fits last year, when he rushed for 147 yards and dealt the Beavers one of what would eventually become just two Pac-10 conference losses.

The Beavers defense will definitely be keyed up for this big conference test that could make or break their season hopes.

The Beavers reloaded after losing eight defensive starters, including four in the secondary, from last season. Oregon State started three newcomers — tackle Brennan Olander, safety Cameron Collins and cornerback Brandon Hardin last week in its victory at Arizona State. (Tim Clark expects to return to his starting spot at the corner this week after having two wisdom teeth pulled.)

Oregon State coach Mike Riley says his team will need every able body to stop Stanford's power ground attack.

"We've seen everything but that so far," he said. "We're going to have to play physically and fast. This guy is hard to bring down one on one. The more people we get to the party, the better we'll be."

Evening thread: Use this to discuss the night games. Bonus points to anyone who finds a Husky-Wildcat open thread after LSU-Florida wraps up.

7 PM EST/4 PM PST
Furd at Oregon State, FSN HD/CSN Bay Area
Cal volleyball vs. Washington State, CSN California

7:15 PM EST/4:15 PM PST
Colorado at #2 Texas, ESPN2 HD

8 PM EST/5 PM PST
#1 Florida at #4 LSU, CBS HD
Michigan at #12 Iowa, ABC HD
#22 Georgia Tech at Florida State, ESPN HD

10:15 PM EST/7:15 PM PST
Arizona at Washington, FSN Regional, might have to look for a stream. Quick hits of this game after the jump.

AZ Desert Swarm interviews UW Dawg Pound and gets the general idea as to how teams will stop Jake Locker.

Jake is going to get most of his yards through the air. He isn't running much this year because the coaching staff wants to keep him healthy the entire season. He will run on key third down plays to keep drives alive but the days of him running 12-15 designed running plays are over.That being said he has become the most dangerous passer in the Pac 10 and will be the best QB the Wildcats face this season. The key to containing the Washington passing game is to jam the Husky WR's at the line and take them out of their routes which would ruin their timing with Locker. Putting pressure on Jake and containing him inside the pocket with yourdefensive ends will also limit his options. If Jake has time all night he can make the plays that will beat you.

As for UW Dawg Pound, they focus on how to contain Nick Foles.

The key for Washington is crowd noise and defensive pressure. We need to keep Foles inside the pocket. Our defensive ends have to contain better. Clausen had six or seven seconds to pass sometimes last Saturday. That puts way too much stress on your secondary.

The Huskies have seen plenty of spread in the past. They practiced against it all last season. I don't think we are going to see anything that really surprises us. We just need to apply pressure, get to the ball, and make more tackles.

Poll

After the Oregon-UCLA game, I am...

Thoroughly confident about playing UCLA

12 votes

Significantly confident about playing UCLA

39 votes

Shaky in confidence about playing UCLA

84 votes

Frightened to death about playing UCLA

28 votes

163 votes | Poll has closed

Inside the Pac-10: We Have Our Top Dogs

Avinash — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:15:09 -0000

via www.cnnsi.com

We have two clear contenders for the crown, plus one dark horse now (more on them later). Everyone else clearly has deficiencies that can't be covered up, as evidenced by their tough but decisive losses in conference play.

Despite my usual calm, unfazed demeanor, I get plenty annoyed with the way the Bears play, especially when things go to hell. Sometimes I think dark dark thoughts, especially when we can't anticipate a bubble screen, our quarterback is throwing into orbit, that our players can't be like USC's and have five star talent and make plays even when another guy screws up, etc. etc.

Oregon 52, Washington State 6

And then I remember I could be a Cougar fan.

The Washington State Cougars are a Horrible, Horrible Football Team

I generally like Washington State. They have great fans. I've always felt a certain kinship with them as Husky haters. And I feel horrible for them. My neighbor is a WSU alum, nicest guy in the world, and was just too embarassed to talk about the game much, just a bunch of stuff about how Doba ruined the program to the point of being maybe the worst Pac-10 team of all time. And its hard for me to argue, because I've sat at Autzen for games against the like of Portland State, Montana, Idaho, Utah State, and Nevada and I can't recall any of them being anywhere near the same ballpark as this level of terrible.

Their lines fell over like a stack of cards. Their running back was slow. Their linebackers can't tackle. And Marshall Lobbestael.............those were two of the worst interceptions I have ever seen. I could have come down from my seat in row 81 and picked them off they were up in the air so long. Only their punter was a Pac-10 level player, which is good as he gets more touches than anyone else on the team.

So, in playing a team with such an incredible level of suckitude, its tough to take a lot of meaningful thoughts from this game. Here are a few things I can think of that have some meaning besides "we looked good because the other team sucked."

Yikes. I'm guessing not many Cal fans would like to switch shoes even if we stumbled and bumbled the rest of the season. Anything has to be better than hopeless gloom, right?

Even the Wazzu fan at Gameday has decided to take the week off (HT Cougcenter):

Cougar fans might be the greatest on Earth to sit through this tripe, much less break it down on a day-to-day basis.

One can only watch their team get blown out so many times before they've had enough. Sometimes you wonder - as I am right now with the Seahawks getting blown out in Indianapolis - how all your favorite teams can go to crap at the same time. It's annoying; I used to remember the butterflies I got in my stomach before a big Cougar football game. I still have it for basketball, but hardly ever anymore for football. And while I like the "no pressure" aspect of it all, and the fact we really have nothing to lose, it is also tiring to see so much apathy. A half to three-fourths full Martin Stadium. A lack of any buzz whatsoever as we get close to game time.

We only have one game left that any of us are going to really care about: the Apple Cup. And, adding insult to injury, it's in Seattle. Against a revitalized Husky team under Steve Sarkisian. The spread for the game, at least based on what I've seen so far, will probably be somewhere in the two to three touchdown range. Yeah, I know, throw out the records, rivalries are different blah blah blah. Still, I have a feeling things aren't going to go well, although I have an urge to be there in person just to show the purple bandwagon that WSU has people that still care about their team even when the wins are few and far between.

Cal fans who remember the bad old days, can you think of any ways to console our wounded Cougar brethren?

Notre Dame 37, Washington 30

via www.midwestsportsfans.com

Speaking of the purple bandwagon, the Huskies continue to loom as a potential upset threat to any team, and will definitely be a tough test if they hover at bowl eligibility in the last week of the season. UW Dawg Pound wasn't pleased with the goal-line coaching against the Irish, but for the most part liked what he saw.

I think the coaches made some questionable calls in the red zone. Sark doesn't seem to like spreading the field or trying to exploit Jake around the end when the middle is plugged up. I didn't like the decision that led to zero points in the third quarter when we were at the one yard line. If we took those points we win the game. That of course is all about hindsight. You convert the TD situation and Washington puts the game away. We can nitpick all we want but if you compare the coaching to last year it is night and day. Willingham walks in here with the same talent and loses by 30 points. You have to give Sark and his staff credit for getting us in th eposition to win games. You have to give them credit for going for the jugglar when it was exposed. Winners do that and we are just learning how to win.

What do you feel about Sarkisian's goal-line decision?

As the Irish go on their bye week to prepare for the make-or-break game for Charlie Weis, Notre Dame SBN blog Rakes of Mallow ponders the long two week stretch until the Trojans come to South Bend...

Beyond the dozens of obvious reasons, the Southern Cal game is so important because it will be the light in which we look at these first five games. Was this a bad Notre Dame team getting lucky, or a very good Notre Dame surviving some youthful mistakes and finding their way in the world? Beat the Trojans and this whole season becomes a great story you tell your grandkids about that time Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen stumbled their way to a great BCS bowl. If they lose? Then hold on, folks, because it's going to be a bumpy ride of calling for Weis' head and spilt tears and booze for the next month and a half.

This team has been both frustrating and a joy to watch, but not even the biggest Irish (or Weis) hater can say that they ever quit. Not down eleven points in the fourth quarter on the road when every call and bounce had gone against them. Not after their best player was lost with a snapped collarbone. Not on fourth and goal with time dwindling in the lights of Ross-Ade. Not on first and goal inside the one after you'd just stonewalled the man-beast of Jake Locker seven times already that game. Maybe all of these efforts are just a comical warm-up to another skull-crushing by the Trojans, but maybe they're just a young defense learning how to complement a great offense in victory. In eleven days, we'll find out.

I haven't paid much attention to the Irish. Are they a good team?

Oregon State 28, Arizona State 17

via www.eastvalleytribune.com

Time to bust Arizona State's bubble too. They might have a rising defense (which did hold Jacquizz Rodgers in check), but their offense is too stagnant to do much of anything against the Beaver defense. According to House of Sparky, the failings are at quarterback.

Danny Sullivan had decent statistics throwing for over 300 yards and completing over 50% of his 58 passes thrown, however his performance looks better on paper than on the field. Sullivan often missed his receivers badly with overthrows, underthrows, and "who knows where he was throwing it" throws. Erickson is left with a difficult decision going into next weeks game against the Wazzu Cougars, to stick with his senior QB or switch to the freshman Brock Osweiler.

The Beavers have their own concerns; Building the Dam notes the defensive shuffles that could take place all season.

The Beaver defense also at least didn't stand pat, making three changes in the starting lineup. Brennan Olander replaced Latu Moala on the line, Cameron Collins continued to play in place of Suaesi Tuimaunei at safety, as he did in the latter portion of the Arizona game, and Brandon Hardin replaced Tim Clark at cornerback.

Hardin was the change that made the biggest impact, as Brandon had an interception, four tackles, and also broke up a pass. Clark still contributed five tackles for the Beavers in his modified role.

But even with the changes that did produce added pressure, only one sack of Sullivan resulted. And Sullivan threw for 338 yards, completing 32 of 58 passes, as the Sun Devils ran up total 406 yards. Arizona St. receiver Chris McGaha had 15 catches for 165 yards, both game high numbers. That kind of performance can't be repeated if Oregon State expects to make a run at another nine or ten win season.

Furd 24, UCLA 16

via www.seattlepi.com

Here's your sleeper. The Trees can power run the ball behind the White Stallion, and they can play great defense, and that's really all you need to do to compete to win conference titles. We won't really know if they're a full-fledged contender until this two game road trip to Oregon state and Arizona, but right now it's hard to argue that Harbaugh has the Trees back on track.

Jon Wilner breaks down an intriguing possibility that does have a small, but not remote chance of occuring.

Where, and when, does Stanford's run end? There are two possible outcomes to the 2009 Pac-10 title chase:

1. USC shifts into a higher gear, runs the table and wins the league going away.

2. The Trojans never get their groove on, lose one or two more, and the race remains wide open into the middle of November.

That's essentially how things played out for Stanford a decade ago.

In a league lacking a dominant team — it was the only season since the mid-1990s that the Pac-10 failed to produce a 10-game winner — the Cardinal emerged from the masses and made a successful run for the roses.

Are the Furd a sleeper or a snoozer?

As for Bruins Nation, they're not happy with the quarterback situation.

First and foremost it starts with Craft/Brehaut situation. I understand and appreciate the argument on Craft's side. I also recognize how Craft yesterday perhaps played one of his best games (if not his best) as a UCLA QB. His numbers would have been better if Taylor Embree had made the trip to Palo Alto or Morrell Presley was not making freshman mistakes. Still, what is obvious to me that the offense is shackled with Craft at the helm. Coaches are not taking downfield shots with Craft because they just don't have the confidence in his ability to connect. If that is the case, then why didn't they try out Brehaut? Why didn't they try out Brehaut in late first quarter or during third quarter when they were dialing up one unimaginative running plays after another.

Also, on that note why UCLA offensive line had opened up some nice holes early on, it was clear Stanford made their in game adjustments and basically challenged Bruins to beat them with Kevin Craft's arm. Given the plays our coaches dialed up, it was evident they didn't have the confidence in Craft's arm, which in turn doesn't explain why they didn't try out Brehaut. BTW preserving Brehaut's redshirt season argument doesn't fly, given Neuehisel/Chow burned it in our first game.

Who do you think should start at QB for UCLA?

Quick hits: Minnesota fell to Wisconsin in a closely contested matchup--The Daily Gopher covered what went wrong...Maryland edged Clemson, but might've lost Da'Rel Scott for the season.

Finally, USC 30, California 3

via calbearsonline.com

We've covered this enough, but we'll get some outside perspective from our fellow bloggers. First, the USC outlook from Conquest Chronicles.

That was pretty much Cal's offense for the night. After that they just disappeared. Yes, they got a FG in the forth quarter but every time they got close the SC defense shut them down.

Matt Barkley played pretty good tonight. He had some balls sail on him but outside of the one INT that he threw he made some nice throws to Damian Williams. USC had 8 or nine different receivers catch a pass tonight. Anthony McCoy is going to be a very effect TE in the NFL. He made some catches and he made some great blocks. Joe McKnight had a great game as well he had some nice runs in the first quarter. Allen Bradford was serviceable but we also saw why he is not an effective short yardage back.

SC did what they needed to do in containing Jahvid Best. He rushed for more yards than he did last year against USC but it really did not matter...SC had his number. Cal QB Kevin Riley never got into a groove after throwing that INT in the end zone. He made a few nice throws here and there but he really never really was a threat to SC. The defense pressured him all night.

Bears With Fangs and The Bear Will Not Quit both had nice writeups of the game. BWF discusses assumptions we had before the season

In defending the passing game, we all assumed that Cal’s highly touted secondary would somehow be able to match last year’s success in passing efficiency and interception totals (tied for 3rd). Yet the Bears’ secondary which returned all its starters, are sitting at just four, with two coming from linebacker Mike Mohammed. The Bears are also giving up 238 yards per game through the air, good for just 8th in the conference in this category.

Cal’s secondary, and its linebackers might I add, continue to struggle in zone coverage and are continually hurt by its tendency to leave the middle of the field open for athletic tight ends to really hurt the Bears. They give up way too much space to receivers and have been hurt continually by big yardage on third down passing situations, an area they excelled at last year.

The Bear Will Not Quit focuses on Riley's psyche.

I have no idea what goes through Riley's head, but twice now, we've seen Riley's quality of play drop off dramatically from where it has been at other times. In both instances, the drop off occurred after he struggled with wide open passes and pressure early in the game.

This tells me something: he has trouble shaking off mistakes. I am not criticizing him. It's hard enough to be a Pac 10 starting QB, but to have to suck up mistakes and frustration in the middle of a game against a defense like SC is just plain hard. Most people couldn't do it.

But that's the job of a college quarterback, and the fact is, Riley looks like he's struggling with it. He looks like a guy who gets into a funk and can't get himself out. I am very curious to see how he does against UCLA. If he rights the ship, and can keep his wits the rest of the season, this team can run the table the rest of the way (yes, I think they are a decent QB away on offense from doing that from here on out). If he continues to struggle mentally, I fear things could get ugly.

Do you fear Kevin Riley has a fragile psyche?

Poll

The best team through Week 5 in the Pac-10 is...

USC

75 votes

Oregon

90 votes

Furd

19 votes

Another team

10 votes

194 votes | Poll has closed

The incomparable 2009 SBN Pac-10 Football Preview

Nuss — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 15:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

USC has more question marks this year than at any time in their reign of dominance over the Pac-10, starting with who will play quarterback. Will freshman Matt Barkley be the guy? (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Browse more photos »

We SB Nation bloggers are quite proud of our independence. Yet, from time to time, an event so compelling comes along so as to draw us out from our communities and collaborate on a project of such import, the very future of SBN depends on it.

The beginning of football season is just such an event.

For seven years now, every Pac-10 football season has approached with the same question in mind: Is this the year that Oregon/Cal/Oregon State/ANYBODY supplants USC as the champion of the West Coast's premier conference? Not since 2002, when Washington State advanced to the Rose Bowl by virtue of its head-to-head victory over the Trojans, has someone other than USC represented the Pac-10 as the league's champion.

Could this finally be the year it happens? Can Jeremiah Masoli lead Oregon to the heights that Dennis Dixon's knee could not? Can Jahvid Best carry Cal there? Will Oregon State take that next step to elite status by competing for the conference title year in and year out?

In a lot of ways, this sure feels like the year. The Trojans will be breaking in another new quarterback, and while that hasn't exactly stopped them before -- a couple of guys named John David Booty and Mark Sanchez did OK -- you have to wonder if their luck doesn't run out at some point. Defensively, they'll have to replace three linebackers selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and eight starters overall. Again, they've done this before ... but still.

Nationally, the take is that this string of dominance by USC says more about the rest of the conference than it does the Trojans. True or not, that's the perception. If this conference ever wants to get the respect it thinks it deserves, it's going to have to start consistently challenging the Trojans for that title, and occasionally taking one.

This just might be the year.

Predicted Order of Finish

As voted on by the Pac-10 SBN bloggers ...

Top Five Pac-10 Heisman Trophy Candidates

1. Jahvid Best

#4 / Running Back / California Golden Bears

Height: 5-10

Weight: 195

Year: junior

Best is absolutely electric; he's been described as 'silly-fast'. He's a human highlight reel who's a threat to take the ball to the house every time. He's the leading returning rusher in college football, averaging over 8 yards every time he touches the ball. If Cal wins 10+ games, he's the prototypical candidate, right?

- California Golden Blogs

2. Jacquizz Rodgers

#1 / Running Back / Oregon St. Beavers

Height: 5-7

Weight: 191

Year: sophomore

Rodgers burst onto the scene last year with a sensational campaign as a true freshman, rushing or 1,253 yards in 2008. His small size and shifty moves make him a fun player to watch -- and a tough target for opponents to bring down.

- Building the Dam

3. Jeremiah Masoli

#8 / Quarterback / Oregon Ducks

Height: 5-11

Weight: 214

Year: junior

Jeremiah Masoli is not your typical QB. He’s short, and a bit squatty, but does he ever produce. He can throw the ball, he can run the ball, and he doesn’t make mistakes. In his second year with Chip Kelly, look for him to become the most productive player in the Pac-10, and maybe run over a few safeties in the process.

- Addicted to Quack

4. Taylor Mays

#2 / Safety / USC Trojans

Height: 6-3

Weight: 235

Year: senior

Normally, defensive players don't stand a chance in the Heisman race. But Mays never has really fit the mold. A freak of an athlete -- he hits like a linebacker but runs like a wide receiver -- Mays has two things going for him that every Heisman candidate needs: 1) A well-hyped reputation that proceeds him, and 2) He plays for one of the best programs in the country. A big game against Ohio State would set his candidacy into motion.

- Conquest Chronicles

5. Jake Locker

#10 / Quarterback / Washington Huskies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 222

Year: junior

The Huskies likely won't be very good this year, but Locker is an undeniable talent and a dark-horse Heisman candidate. He's a run/pass threat who has been more run than pass so far. If new coach Steve Sarkisian can get his completion percentage up, and the Huskies can win a few more games than people think, Locker has the opportunity to put up some eye-popping numbers.

- CougCenter.com

Team Capsules (in predicted order of finish)

1. USC Trojans

By Conquest Chronicles

Overview: USC has faced using a new starting QB in the past and they have responded. The Trojans have all of their starters back on offense (except Patrick Turner) and although they are replacing most of the defense, the defense will be better in 2009 than a lot of people think. I do think the rest of the Pac-10 is catching up to USC, but until someone actually knocks USC out of the top spot ...

Key to Success: The QB position is the key to USC's success in 2009. With Aaron Corp out for a short time with an injury, don't go to sleep on true freshman Matt Barkley, who has really stunned many with quick grasp of the offense and his maturity at handling the pressure. Barkley has a ways to go, but he is a lot closer than others in his position in the past.

Potential Achilles Heel: See above ...

Best Case Scenario: USC Wins the Pac-10 but will probably have 1-2 losses.

Worst Case Scenario: USC loses the pac-10 because of some bone head lead loss in conference.

Likely Scenario: USC will have a tough time with their road schedule and their winning the Pac-10 will probably come down to the last week of the season.

2. Cal Golden Bears

By California Golden Blogs

Overview: The Nate Longshore era is over. For better or for worse, the Bears will be entering a new age of Tedford football at Strawberry Canyon, where faces have changed but the strategy remains the same: Run the ball, terrorize on defense. Those were the characteristics of the 2004 team that should've been Rose Bowl-bound, and while Tedford searches for the next great Cal QB to follow in Aaron Rodgers' footsteps, there is hope the 2009 team can finally put it all together. With eight returning starters on defense, eight on offense, plus one of the most spectacular players in the country, what's not to like?

Key to Success: The Bears' hopes to make it to the Rose Bowl remain firmly perched on the spectacular Jahvid Best. Best was the main reason for five or six of Cal's wins last season; with a battered offensive line and only sporadic quarterback play, everyone looked to Best to provide the offense with some spark. Get him the ball in space, and he's a threat to take it to the house every time, leaving defensive backs grasping at air. Cal's defense is good enough to keep the Bears in every game, but it will be up to Jahvid (and those who block for him) to put up enough points to win them.

Potential Achilles Heel: Kevin Riley still won't inspire many Cal fans until he can show he can complete a short route downfield consistently. He struggled with his command and mechanics all last season, and he and a green receiving corp never got on the same page. With another offensive coordinator coming in, it'll be most important to monitor his development as the leader of our offense. Anything the passing game can do to ease the pressure on Best will pay big dividends in the Pac-10 title chase. Runner-up: Our placekickers can't be trusted with a kick from over 30-35 yards, and kickoffs were a dicey proposition all last year.

Best Case Scenario: Pasadena. The default answer of a Cal fan. This year, though, there are two choices. We'll be happy with either one.

Worst Case Scenario: Beating USC, somehow nursing a one game lead in the Pac-10, everything going smoothly into the Big Game ... and blowing our Rose Bowl chances on the field of the Furdies. Yeah, brace yourself Cal fans. Less heartbreaking would be a repeat of the sort of meltdown that imploded the Bears' 2007 season. Even in the worst case, however, I can't see this team limping to the finish line with less than a 7-5 record.

Likely Scenario: If Riley is good and everything else holds to form, we're finally BCS-bound. If Riley struggles, we get our pick of the ESPN bowl bonanza. The Trojans will never be more vulnerable than they are this fall. The Bears will never be stronger. I would put better than even odds on the Bears winning at least 10 games this season. Our chances rest with our quarterback. Haven't we been here before?

3. Oregon Ducks

By Addicted to Quack

Overview: Oregon is beginning a new era this season, but it really doesn’t seem like much has changed. New coach Chip Kelly will continue his offensive explosion that has averaged 475 ypg and 40ppg over the past 2 years. Duck fans expect great things, as Oregon is loaded with talent at the skill positions, and the inexperienced offensive line will be coached by the top offensive line coach in the country, Steve Greatwood.

On the other side of the ball, the Ducks will rely on speed. Oregon has an experienced and talented group of linebackers, and the team is led in the secondary by All Pac-10 CB Walter Thurmond and hard hitting safety TJ Ward (Google "TJ Ward hits Zac Robinson;" you’ll be glad you did). Though Oregon’s defense has been a weak line in the past, it has the talent to improve from last season, when the Ducks’ D spent more time on the field than any team in the nation.

Key to Success: The passing defense. Oregon fans are always up in arms about the secondary, which they constantly feel is underachieving. Last year, the unit was supposed to be the best in the nation, but then gave up a combined 829 yards to BSU and USC.

This year, the unit must improve, which will be a very difficult task as Oregon lost two starters in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. The secondary is talented with a finally fully healthy Thurmond, who should be one of the top cornerbacks in the nation. But Oregon will need young players to step up at the opposite corner position, as well as at rover.

Potential Achilles Heel: Any follower of the Pac-10 knows that injuries have spelled disaster for the Ducks time and again in recent years, most notably when Dennis Dixon’s knee gave out on a terrible night in Tucson. This season is no exception, with only one experienced QB on the roster. QB Jeremiah Masoli is backed up by Nate Costa and Darron Thomas but Costa has injured his ACL three times and Thomas is an inconsistent true sophomore.

Health will also be vital at receiver and on the offensive line. The WR position has seen multiple injuries through the first week of fall camp, and the offensive line is still healing from spring ball. As the offensive line returns only 20 total starts, health will be vital in ensuring this unit can come together and help Oregon compete with the upper echelon of the Pac-10.

Best Case Scenario: Go undefeated and win the bowl game against anyone not named Florida. All the games on Oregon’s schedule are definitely winnable. Oregon has the talent to realistically stick with almost any team in the country, and has a very favorable schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: Oregon’s offensive line never comes together and neither does their defensive line or secondary. This means that Oregon can’t beat either USC or Cal at home, and drops a few games to teams like Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford. Oregon goes 6-7 after losing in Chip Kelly’s bowl debut.

Likely Scenario: Oregon goes 9-3, losing to USC, splitting Cal and BSU, and dropping another along the way. Oregon has a lot of talent, yet a lot of inexperience in a few key positions, which could mean inconsistency. But Oregon wins its bowl game, setting the stage for a big 2010.

4. Oregon State Beavers

By Building The Dam

Overview: For the second straight year, Oregon State will be looking to reload on defense. All four members of the secondary are gone from a year ago, as well as three from the defensive line. The linebackers, led by Keaton Kristick, will be the strength of the defense and should help stop this year's talented crop of Pac-10 running backs. Any pressure the defensive line (watch out for DT Steven Paea) can put on the quarterback will help the young secondary. On offense, the healthy quarterback is Sean Canfield, with Lyle Moevao taking a backseat -- for now. Jacquizz Rodgers returns at RB, but there is little proven depth behind him -- and the receivers are young.

Key to Success: Two things quickly come to mind. The first is the offensive line. LT Andy Levitre and LG Adam Speer are off to the NFL, leaving behind a young, inexperienced group-- especially on the left side. Highly touted recruit Michael Philipp has come into camp to compete for the LT spot, and has been turning some heads. According to HC Mike Riley, Philipp will either "start or redshirt", but at 6-3, 320, the Beavers need him to learn the system and start this year. The other key is Jacquizz Rodgers. He needs to stay healthy all year, or this could turn into a train wreck on offense with the inexperience at receiver, especially with Darrell Catchings going down with a wrist injury early in fall camp.

Potential Achilles Heel: The secondary, which isn’t young -- just inexperienced -- could be the achilles heel this year. It shouldn’t be quite like 2005, when the Beavers baptized freshmen Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis by fire at cornerback, but all four to-be starters don’t have much starting experience. It will be up to Tim Clark to hold down the group -- he has the most experience and should turn into the leader of the defensive backfield.

Best Case Scenario: The best case scenario this year is that the Beavers win all their home games (it’s doable), and then go out and win most of their tough games on the road. With road trips to Cal, Arizona State, USC, and Oregon, it’s not going to be easy, but the Beavers know they have the talent and the wherewithal to do it.

Worst Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario would be that the Beavers can’t win the games they need to win at home, and they struggle against the Pac-10’s best on the road -- which could mean that Jacquizz Rodgers goes down with an injury.

Likely Scenario: Most likely, the Beavers will win seven or eight games. It's very possible that this squad could win more-- and it probably wouldn't surprise many, based on what Riley has been able to do in the past. Look for the Beavers to get off to a better start in years past with the more favorable pre-season schedule, have a solid season, and win their sixth straight bowl game.

5. Arizona State Sun Devils

By House of Sparky

Overview: 2008 is known as the year of disappointment in Tempe. After an extremely promising 2007 campaign where they finished 10-3 and won a share of the Pac-10 with USC, the Sun Devils found themselves overconfident and overmatched, going 5-7 and missing the postseason for the first time in years. 2009 brings a new quarterback in senior Danny Sullivan, and a highly touted recruiting class that could pay instant dividends on the playing field.

The Sun Devils are headed to Athens, Georgia to play the Bulldogs in a highly anticipated rematch of the drubbing of 2008. Going into a vaunted SEC stadium and pulling off the victory would give the Sun Devils a huge vote of confidence. In all likelihood, however, this team is a year away from legitimacy, after the recruiting class gets some experience in 2009

Key to Success: If the defense can live up to its massive potential, ASU will be a sleeper pick to finish in the top 3 of the Pac-10. If true freshman LB Vontaze Burfict is eligible for the 2009 season, he and fellow true freshman DT Corey Adams will join an experienced, tenacious D led by LBs Gerald Munns and Mike Nixon. Given the uncertainty on offense, a reliable defense would give ASU a fighting chance against any competitor. Stop the run in the Pac-10, and you can put up wins. There isn't a single QB in the Pac-10 that can break down a great defense on his own.

Potential Achilles Heel: In a fairly obvious move, House of Sparky picks the quarterback position. Danny Sullivan is currently the guy, but Samson Szakacsy and Brock Osweiler are both breathing down his neck on the depth chart. In terms of talent, Osweiler is king. But as a true freshman, it's a spotty idea to even consider him for the role. As for savvy, it might just be Szakacsy. He's a laid back dude who enjoys surfing while at home in California, but he has the resolve to lead this team in the desert. As for experience, Danny is the only one who has ever played college football. Hopefully, Sullivan assumes the role nicely and takes us to a nice 8-win season. But with this lack of control over the circumstances, the QB position will be worth watching for the Devils in 2009.

Best Case Scenario: Sullivan catches onto the starting role, and the defense destroys the pretenders in the Pac-10. ASU goes into Georgia and gives them a heck of a fight, earning the respect of SEC fans everywhere. ASU wins 9 games, culminating in a victory over Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl. Thomas Weber wins his second Lou Groza Award.

Worst Case Scenario: Sullivan breaks down against Georgia, and we're embarrassed once again by the Bulldogs. Pac-10 competition brings about the emergence of Szakascsy, but he cannot fulfill the fans' expectations. Vontaze Burfict is deemed ineligible for competition, and has to sit out 2009. ASU wins 4 games, and Dennis Erickson is fired

Likely Scenario: Sullivan is an average Pac-10 QB, and we win 6 games, making it into the postseason, but lose to BYU in the Las Vegas bowl. Osweiler gets some reps, and is named starter going into the 2010 season. The defense scores 10 defensive touchdowns, the main bright spot on the team.

6. Stanford Cardinal

By CougCenter.com

Overview: Jim Harbaugh's program is one on the come. The Cardinal were living in the bottom of the Pac-10 in the wake of Tyrone Willingham's departure and the disaster that was Walt Harris, but after steady gains the past two seasons and one of the nation's top recruiting classes, Stanford has its eyes set on the top half of the conference. Harbaugh's got people believing down on The Farm.

Key to Success: Quarterback Andrew Luck. The highly regarded reshirt freshman has supplanted senior Tavita Pritchard, and by all accounts has the ability to be a star. If he can live up to the hype and provide a legitimate compliment to the already potent running attack led by Toby Gerhart, the Cardinal offense could take a quantum leap this year. And if it does, there's no telling what kind of noise Stanford can make.

Potential Achilles Heel: The offense ought to be good, but there are some nagging questions. The aforementioned quarterback battle could spell trouble if Luck doesn't pan out -- Pritchard has had plenty of issues over the years. And while Gerhart is a freight train, the offensive line has some new faces. The defense should be solid again, but if the offense can't come up to speed, the Cardinal might lose some games they might otherwise win.

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinal make the most of their relatively soft landing to begin the year, winning their first five against WSU, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Washington and UCLA. Emboldened by their fantastic start, Stanford goes 4-3 the rest of the way, winning a game or two against the conference's heavyweights to finish the year 9-3 and in the Sun Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario: That soft landing? Yeah, not so soft. WSU upsets Stanford after Luck throws a trio of interceptions, and it's a portent of things to come, as the Cardinal head to Wake and lose there, too. The bad start throws a wrench in the Cardinal improvement plan, and they take a step back to 4-8.

Likely Scenario: Stanford wins four of its first five, and goes 3-4 over the final seven to get to 7-5 and Las Vegas.

7. Arizona Wildcats

By AZ Desert Swarm

Overview: The 2009 season will be all about momentum. Nic Foles and Matt Scott battle out the quarterback position while the receivers, running backs, and offensive line return tons of experience. Our defense should be solid as well with a D-line that will be strong, aggressive backers, and anchors on the defensive backfield in Cam Nelson and Devin Ross. Arizona's recruiting class is the strongest since Stoops has been in Tucson. Three guys could make immediate impacts as true freshman (C.J. Parish, Trevor Erno, and Adam Hall). The Cats brought in Jonathan Hollins as a Junior transfer as well as Jack Julsing and Shane Zink for immediate experience and upper classmen strength.

Key to Success: The key to our success will definitely be the offensive line play, giving our young quarterbacks the time to throw the ball. I think that Matt Scott will be the starter at the beginning of the year. Scott will have the mobility factor that Foles isn't able to bring to the team. Nic Grigsby and Keolin will be dominant out of the backfield and shouldn't miss a beat on the offensive end. Wide receivers are deep (minus Mike Thomas) and will be open, they just need a QB to get them the ball. Defensive line is really deep with the return of Elmore, Mitchell, Horton, Reed, and the addition of Hollins. Linebackers is the weak point, with our DB's returning two guys who have lots of experience.

Potential Achilles Heel: Arizona's achilles heel is the lack of cohesiveness with the offense. We will have a new QB in Scott, or Foles. Our offensive line lost three guys, and will be making patchwork of returning backups from last year and juco transfers in Zink and Jusling. The receivers will need to find a man to step up and take Thomas' spot, most likely Delashaun Dean or Terrell Turner. Arizona's offense faces plenty of tough teams in the Pac-10 this year, will have to play a scary Central Michigan team, and travel to Iowa to play a Big-10 team on their third week of the year.

Best Case Scenario: Take care of business in the non-conference schedule by taking out Central Michigan, Northern Arizona, and Iowa without missing a beat. The next three games are Oregon State, Washington and Stanford. The Cats will probably win 2 out of 3 of these. I think our best case scenario for the Cats is to start out the season 5-1 heading back to Tucson to play UCLA. A win at home against UCLA is definitely winnable. Taking out UCLA, then lowly Washington State could lead the Cats to 7-1. I think that's where the honeymoon stops and the Cats struggle the rest of the way out. At California, home against Oregon, at Arizona State, then to USC will be a brutal way to end the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Lose at home to Central Michigan (scary team) to start the season, and then at Iowa two weeks later. I think a slide in the beginning of the year could snowball the Cats downward and cause problems for them at Oregon State and Washington. I think a 1-4 start would be the worst case scenario for Arizona. After Oregon State, UCLA and Washington could prove formidable foes. I already talked about our year end schedule, which could easily be 4 losses for the Cats this year.

Likely Scenario: A middle ground of the above scenarios. The Cats will take out Central Michigan and Northern Arizona no problem. Travel to Iowa will be a challenge. Oregon State in Corvallis will be a huge win, but unlikely. The Cats will finish 8-4 this year, but will need to find a way to put up point like they did last year. Sonny Dykes has done a great job installing the spread offense in Tucson and Matt Scott could be an unbelievable fit in the system.

8. UCLA Bruins

By Bruins Nation

Overview: To say Rick Neuheisel was handed a program that had to be built from the ground up is a massive understatement and last season couldn't even be called building a foundation. Last season, Neuheisel just cleared the scraps off the lot. This season, he will begin to build his foundation. With the infusion of talent thanks to great recruiting, some fantastic offseason work and a year of development, this program will take a major step forward this year. They won't compete for a Pac-10 title, but they'll be competitive in every game and that's progress.

Key to Success: The Bruins' key to success will be the man under center, Kevin Prince. While the offensive line is the unit that needs to take the biggest step forward, the quarterback position is still the most important on the football field and UCLA will send a redshirt freshman who hasn't played in two years (season-ending injury in the first game of his senior year of high school) into the fire. He does have a good arm though and has drawn rave reviews for his football smarts and leadership qualities. His ability to keep the turnovers at a minimum and handle the pressure sure to come from dropping back behind a green offensive line will tell the tale of the offense.

Potential Achilles Heel: The Bruins' potential achilles heel is the same as last season. While the team had issues last year, no unit caused UCLA more problems than the offensive line. The running backs never had holes to run through and last year's quarterback, Kevin Craft, showed as much toughness as anyone in the country just to make it through each game with the beating he was taking. The offensive line's first job this year will be to open some holes to get a running game going. If the Bruins have a respectable running game, then UCLA will have a chance to take advantage of the talent at the skill positions.

Best Case Scenario: The UCLA offensive line, which is amazingly inexperienced, but has some talent, could come together and provides decent play. Kevin Prince could maximize his talent a little earlier than expected and mature quickly, while the defense remains as injury-free as possible to be led by Brian Price, Reggie Carter and Alterraun Verner to an eight-win season.

Worst Case Scenario: Kevin Prince and the offensive line's play leans more towards inexperience than talent, while the linebacking core, which is strong but thin, falls prey to injury. With the offensive line and QB unable to take advantage of the talent on the perimeter, the offense flounders and the lack of linebackers lets opposing teams control possession as UCLA fails to go bowling again.

Likely Scenario: The Bruins will be inconsistent as they mesh some extreme inexperience in with their handful of great players. The offense will be much improved and keep from turning the ball over too much, but is never explosive. The defense should be steady and help the offense out with field position and special teams is stout to win UCLA seven games.

9. Washington Huskies

By CougCenter

Overview: The 2009 Huskies are in rebuilding mode under new head coach Steve Sarkisian after going through total destruction mode under the Willingham and Gilbertson eras. There is hope on Montlake, as Sark has shown the ability to bring in big recruits. If he can get those recruits to execute his offensive plan the same way his USC superstuds did, then Husky fans may see the glory of the Don James days return. Of course, having Joe Montana roaming the sidelines watching his son, all the while bumping into a few recruits and boosters, probably won't hurt.

Key to Success: Jake Locker's arm. We all know Jake can run. Last year we saw what happens when Jake relies on his legs too much. The problem is Locker has only been effective when he has made plays with his legs. Unfortunately, he has not impressed when putting the ball in the air. His most famous throw is a behind the back toss that led to a 15 yard penalty against BYU last year. If Jake can improve his throwing accuracy, the Husky offense would become difficult to stop.

Potential Achilles Heel: There is a common thread that connects all historically bad football teams. Poor line play. The Husky offensive line was very ineffective in 2008 (2.9 YPC). It doesn't matter how talented Jake Locker or any other skill player on the UW offense is, if the line doesn't block, the offense won't move.

Best Case Scenario: Jake Locker stays in the pocket a little more, hits some open receivers, continues to make some plays with his legs, and keeps his leg out of a cast for all twelve games. The lines on both sides hold up just enough and the Huskies go 5-7.

Worst Case Scenario: Another 0-12 season is unlikely thanks to the scheduled W known as Idaho. Worst case, the Huskies go 1-11 with a historic third straight Apple Cup loss to the Washington State Cougars.

Likely Scenario: The Pac 10 is down this year, but UW was just flat out bad last year. It would be a lot to ask to challenge for a bowl game. The Huskies will most likely beat Idaho, Wazzu, and either Arizona or Oregon at home. On the road, they could get one from either Stanford or UCLA. UW ends the season at 4-8.

10. Washington State Cougars

By CougCenter

Overview: The Cougs are coming off of perhaps the worst season in the history of the program. A roster already low on Pac-10-caliber talent was made worse by a plethora of injuries, especially on offense: Five different quarterbacks saw action for the Cougs and seven different offensive line combinations started games. The result was ugly: The Cougs' eight Pac-10 losses were by a combined score of 440-61. Ouchy.

But there is hope that this year can be better. There is a lot of experience returning on offense, and a number of transfers join the defensive ranks. Additionally, the team dedicated itself to strength and conditioning in the offseason, making gains that have been noticeable to observers close to the program. It should add up to the team being more competitive in 2009.

Key to Success: The biggest problem for this team last year was that it was physically dominated at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. The defensive allowed a whopping 5.78 yards per attempt last year (dead last in FBS), most of which you can lay at the feet of the line. Add in the fact that they had just 15 sacks against FBS competition, and you can that the rest of the defense never really had a chance. The story was much the same on the offensive side: 2.75 yards per rushing attempt (No. 116), 42 sacks allowed (No. 117).

If the big fellas on the offensive and defensive lines can put those strength gains to good use -- holding their own in the trenches and avoiding injury -- this team stands a real chance of being a lot more competitive.

Potential Achilles Heel: Injuries, plain and simple. This team still is paper thin at just about every position not named running back -- the Cougs are loaded there, led by explosive Cal transfer James Montgomery -- and if any unit suffers a sudden spate of injuries, it could undermine the effort of the entire team. The positive news is that it's so far, so good in camp, as no key players have suffered notable injuries; at this time last year, the training table was already overflowing. The Cougs will need that to continue in order to make the strides they want to make this year. Otherwise, it could be a replay of 2008 until more reinforcements come next fall.

Best Case Scenario: With last year's experience fresh in their minds, the Cougs play inspired football. The strength and conditioning gains made in the offseason are real, and the team is able to withstand the physical punishment of Pac-10 play. They also get a little lucky in avoiding major injuries. The offense is able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air, and the defense employs a bend-but-don't-break philosophy that allows them to give the offense a chance. It all adds up to the Cougs shocking some people en route to a 5-7 season.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries pile up again, and so do the losses. Another string of embarrassing defeats has fans questioning Paul Wulff's ability to turn the program around, and worse than that, the players' commitment, which looked so strong in the offseason, begins to waver. WSU finishes the year without a win, and Wulff never gets to see the rebuilding job come to fruition.

Likely Scenario: The team is better. Not great, but better. They're not winning a whole lot more games, but they're in a lot more games than they were a year ago. There still are some lopsided scores, but clearly, progress has been made and things are heading in the right direction. The Cougs get a couple of non-conference wins against SMU and Hawaii, jump up to bite either Arizona State or UCLA, and finish up the year with yet another win over Washington. Four wins? We'll take it.

Upgrade/Downgrade - Cornerbacks

Jake Bertalotto — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:00:13 -0000

We continue today by moving into the secondary, where Mark Banker and Keith Heyward have some big shoes to fill. At safety, which we will discuss tomorrow, Al Afalava and Greg Laybourn are gone. At cornerback, it's Keenan Lewis and Brandon Hughes, two players who had a combined 90 starts at Oregon State-- 43 for Hughes and 47 for Lewis.

Tim Clark, who started six games last season, shouldn't have many problems filling in the everyday starter role as a senior. He got plenty of time last season, and just needs to tune up his skills in fall camp in order to avoid some of the mental lapses in coverage that we saw last season.

The other cornerback position looks to be occupied by James Dockery, but Brandon Hardin and Patrick Henderson may also compete for a starting job. Dockery returns from injury for his junior season, and needs to continue improve if he wants to avoid being "picked on" by Pac-10 quarterbacks.

The Beavers last ran into a similar situation in 2005, when the secondary was decimated by graduation. The circumstances won't be as dire in 2009, but Banker will have to replace some starters who have been hoarding the playing time (for good reason) for the past three or four years.