SB Nation - Tavita Pritchard

Stanford Runs Out Of Luck Before The Sun Bowl

ccmachine — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:23:25 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will not be in uniform against Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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Early yesterday evening it was announced that Oklahoma and Stanford would face each other in the Sun Bowl on New Year's Eve. Then it was announced by Cardinal Head Coach, Jim Harbaugh that starting quarterback Andrew Luck wouldn't be playing against the Sooners.

Luck has thrown for 2,575 yards and 13 touchdowns this season but suffered an injury to his hand against Notre Dame and is now recovering from surgery. He'll be replaced by Tavita Pritchard who was once the starting quarterback before Luck arrived. Pritchard has completed 244 of 449 pass attempts at Stanford for 2,747 yards but also has thrown 22 interceptions to 15 touchdowns. Looks like Toby Gerhart is going to get even more touches.

Pritchard led Stanford to their first upset of #2 USC in 2007 so the Oklahoma defense isn't going against someone who has never been under pressure. It doesn't mean that the game plan for Oklahoma's defense didn't just get easier or the bowl game didn't get uglier. There's a reason why Pritchard was beaten out by a redshirt freshman and now having him in the game puts OU at a defensive advantage. Both defenses will be focused on stopping the run and making quarterbacks beat them.

Is Cal's Defense Underachieving?

Avinash — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:30:26 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Cal's pass defense struggled again. Are we going to see this all year long?

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DEFENSE, BEARS...DEFENSE???

Most of the postgame reaction has been focused on Cal's lamentable defensive effort, especially against the pass. It's been discussed everywhere, and I figured I'd throw myself into the fire. Literally, since I figure 80-85% of Cal fans will disagree with my next statement:

Outside of Autzen, Bob Gregory hasn't done that much wrong.

Now before all of you start hollering about Prince and Tuel lighting us up, I understand where you guys are coming from. Like many people, I assumed that the depletion of our linebacking corps would be offset by improvements in the defensive line and the secondary, with everyone having starting experience coming back.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. Units don't just revamp at certain areas and expect to get by because the front and the back are supporting them. The linebackers are the core of the defense, especially in a 3-4; take them away and the middle is open to exploitation.

Think of an army with great tanks and experienced soldiers but no aircraft, anti-aircraft or flak. You might have the power and the wherewithal to take out your opponents, but a good enough air attack can blast all that heavy weaponry and veteran savvy out of the park. So it is with the passing defense this season, where the weakness of the linebackers has been felt by the rest of the lineup.

Cal is returning seven but we're missing those four BIG TIME. Let's rank the top players on our defense last year.

1) Zack Follett
2) Syd'Quan Thompson
3) Tyson Alualu
4) Anthony Felder
5) Worrell Williams
6) Mike Mohamed
7) Darian Hagan
8) Rulon Davis (when healthy)

So those four who are gone are in the top 8, and the three linebackers in the top five. Big big losses.

Rulon Davis might never have been as healthy as we'd have liked him to be, but when he was, he was ON. Cameron Jordan is a jolly guy from what I've seen, but at the moment he really hasn't stepped up to replace Davis's raw ability. Don't be deceived by those 6.5 sacks--3.5 came against really bad teams. He's on pace for 2008 numbers, and he's playing probably 50% more than last season after splitting time with Rulon in 2008.

Derrick Hill has performed well, but centers can still battle him one on one, leaving one side to double, triple team Alualu at will. So that means that extra one or two guys blitzing or moving in on the line of scrimmage has to step up, rush in, and hit the quarterback.

Unfortunately...

Cal does not have a pass rushing linebacker. When Cal put that linebacker at the LoS on passing downs last season (usually Follett), it collapsed the pocket, overwhelmed the edge and forced the quarterback into the errant throws, incompletions or sacks. Not this season. Young, Mohamed, Kendricks, Bishop, Holt, none of these guys have been able to fill that mantle. Jarred Price might be the guy to show it, but what he has in pass rush (2 sacks) he lacks in consistency (4 season tackles)

Follett had 10.5 sacks and 4 hurries on his own last season; through seven games, the ENTIRE Bears linebackers corps has combined for 7.5 sacks and 4 hurries.

Note: Interestingly enough (as you probably saw with some of the highlights), Gregory tinkered with a four down linemen set on passing downs to gain extra pass rush, although I'm not sure how much of it had an effect on slowing down Tuel. I'd been pondering a similar idea considering the weakness of our linebackers to add an extra defensive lineman (our strength) for more pass rush, and it seemed Gregory was thinking along the same lines. We'll see how it bears out when Cal plays formidable/weaker offensive lines down the road.

Cal's linebacking corps is still learning the pass defense ropes: Probably the biggest mistake I made in my predictions was asking this question: "is Mike Mohamed capable of becoming Cal's greatest linebacker of the Tedford era?" Whoops. Desmond Bishop, you keep the title.

Don't get me wrong, Mohamed's been good, still the best all-around linebacker for the Bears (he has picks, a forced fumble, a sack, and 61 tackles). Nevertheless, he seems to be suffering from the Rajon Rondo syndrome--he looked like the best linebacker last season because guys were always throwing in his direction to avoid Felder and Williams. Unlike Follett or Desmond, he lacks that game-changing ability. Maybe that'll change, but right now he's merely good when Cal needs great.

Devin Bishop and Eddie Young are okay, but as BWNQ noted, they probably lack proper football instincts, as they've been duped on several important occasions by doing bad things on the field. No matter how good the coaching is, it's REALLY hard to undo instinct.

As for Kendricks and Holt, they have promise, but as sophomores they're still not fully polished. We can probably expect better things from them...in 2010. Right now we can only hope they're given the time to grow and mature so they can come back and smash next season.

Finally, the secondary. This is probably the most mystifying of the three units, even to a guy like me. Last season these guys were ballhawks, and now they're getting pumpfaked, beat at the point of attack. What's going on??

Syd'Quan Thompson has done his job, but the other side, plainly, has not. Darian Hagan got pump-faked out of the starting lineup in Minnesota. Josh Hill got the Oregon start and got picked on, over and over and over. And then both have been taking their turn even though they've been playing more man coverage. Although both are improving, it does leave you a little frustrated, especially with Hagan, who looked so promising last season. The safeties have been competent--Ezeff and Johnson are good at delivering hits, and Cattouse has also shown great promise, but for whatever reason they've been beat a lot.

So why has the secondary regressed? A few possibilities:

1) With the linebackers having trouble defending their zones and tackling afterwards, the secondary has to edge toward the middle of the field to be prepared to support...which in turn opens up the flats and sideline throws. And it doesn't necessarily secure the middle either.

2) The secondary might be more experienced, but given the depth of gamefilm, there is plenty for opposing teams to scout on them. Cal's secondary is not like USC's, whose weaknesses are harder to pinpoint and exploit. Even Syd'Quan might be lockdown one-on-one, but he's still undersized--tall physical receivers can do damage against him if given the proper time. You can only imagine how many more double moves and pump fakes against Hagan and throws to the flats against Hill we'll see this year.

3) PAY ATTENTION. This is the big one...

There are a lot of good quarterbacks in the Pac-10 this season.

Four freshmen have shown great promise--Foles, Luck, Barkley, and, yes, even Tuel (don't forget he also went about 67% against USC too). Add in three guys who've been here before (Masoli, Locker, Canfield) and that's SEVEN Pac-10 quarterbacks who are at the very least competent. That's the most depth the conference has shown at the quarterback stable this decade.

Compare it to the Pac-10 QBs we saw last season: Sanchez was pretty good but still developing, Willie Tuitama had his ups and downs, Masoli was in his first year escaping the shadow of Dixon, Lyle Moevao had his moments although he was carried by the Rodgers brothers, Rudy Carpenter was digesting turf thanks to his awesome offensive line, the Kevin Craft Interception Show missed no stops, Tavita Pritchard was a placeholder, the Washington/Wazzu quarterbacks we faced were bad, bad, bad.

Masoli has quietly worked his way back to a solid 60% completion percentage. Canfield and Foles are horrifyingly good at finding their receivers, hovering at 70% and putting them in the top seven in the conference. Luck isn't as accurate, but he throws touchdowns and not many picks (kind of like Riley-lite). Locker is the most dangerous player in the Pac-10 if he faces a defense that gives him cushion. And Barkley is only going to get better.

They're so good that they're not just beating Cal's zones, they're beating Cal on man. Tuel's two touchdown throws came against man coverage, where he fit that ball in just the right place for the receiver to get it and the defender had no chance to play the ball. Kevin Prince had excellent throws that burned a few guys with excellent man coverage too. Surprisingly, they played pretty well against Barkley after spotting the Trojans ten points. Of course the big fail was Masoli where the Bears played mostly zone, but even when they played man they got beat.

Now the solution would be to be aggressive in the pass rush and send more guys. But who? Cal's linebackers haven't shown they're able to speed their way. Not many of these guys have the ability to stunt or delay the way our group did last year--maybe Alualu, but again he's facing constant double teams. Plus with the quarterbacks being better this season, sending more guys leaves the Bears vulnerable to a precise pass going for six.

So pick your poison. So pick your poison. Do you key in on stopping the run and not allowing big plays and risk giving up easier underneath throws, or gamble with a pass rush or man coverage and take the risk of quarterbacks connecting on long strikes? This is the quandary Gregory is in, and we’ll find out what he comes up with these next few weeks. (HT Hydro for the rephrase)

Is Cal's defense underachieving, overachieving, or performing as expected?

Reactions to defense.

More reactions: AERose has some interesting numbers on 1st/2nd half stats, Rocky63125 wants Gregory to go, royrules had thoughts about Cal's D against UCLA.

Gary Peterson, San Jose Mercury News:

Then came the part no one expected. When Tedford had finished dousing his defenders in lighter fluid, linebacker Steve Fanua set them on fire.

"He's a young buck, a redshirt freshman," Jordan said, smiling. "He has fire in his veins. He gave us a nice little talk."

And this was received how?

"That only amps you up more," Jordan said. "Here's a guy, barely 18 years old, letting us know what this means for him. He's a young kid. He's hungry."

So was Cal's defense when it returned to the field. Jordan recorded two of his two-and-a-half sacks, and three of his six tackles in the second half. One sack defused Washington State's first drive after the intermission. Another, coming on fourth-and-10, ended a Cougars drive at the Cal 18.

Jimmy Tran, Daily Cal:

One of the points emphasized was tackling.

Arguably the most noticeable player guilty of missed tackles was cornerback Darian Hagan. Despite coming off one of his best performances ever last week against UCLA, Hagan struggled to make several key tackles in the open field and gave up a couple big passing plays against WSU.

"He needs to be more consistent, no question about it," Gregory said. "Very poor game today, and we just got to keep working with these kids to grow and mature."

Locking In On Stanford Cardinal: UCLA's Biggest Pac-10 Game Since 2001

Nestor — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 16:35:45 -0000

So we all had fun watching football games from all over the country and within the conference yesterday. I get that lot of people are now really eager and want to think about the big picture in terms of how the season is going to end for UCLA as the conference seems to be well "wide open":

The Pac-10 race is wide open: There will be no weeks off in the Pac-10 this year. Even Washington State has shown enough to toss off the patsy label. Oregon might be the latest flavor of the week, but is anyone really counting out USC? Or Cal? And what about Arizona State's effort at Georgia? The Sun Devils proved their first two games weren't a mirage. Of course, a competitive conference means a black-and-blue conference, and the nine-game round robin schedule means the likelihood of a team emerging unscathed is nearly zero. In fact, it's a good bet now that the eventual champion will win a tie-breaker among two-loss teams.

That was from Ted Miller, the veteran Pac-10 observer writing on his WWL blog. While some here want to take pleasure in other team's tough weekend, I think as a UCLA fan we should be well advised given our team's history, we don't look ahead and just lock into our next game (ok, we can make exception for the Trojies, who were getting booed by the lovely Trojan family).

I believe the Stanford game this weekend is the biggest conference road game UCLA is going to be playing in since the Stanford road game in 2001. I am not going to go over again on how no one here thought much of Dorrell's "10 win" aberration from 2005. We all knew that season was a total aberration where we were getting bailed out in one game after another by 2 Live Drew. We all knew in the back of our mind we were never really in real contention of the Pac-10 conference race and it got confirmed when Dorrell's incompetency was exposed in Arizona and then slaughtered in the Coloseum. We never had a chance were living off miracles.

Well for the first time since 2001, Bruins can have a shot at it. However, they will get that shot IF AND ONLY IF they can execute against a tough, superbly coached Stanford Cardinal this upcoming Saturday in Palo Alto. Last week it was Washington, that was the toast of the Pac-10. This week it will be the Oregon Ducks and Toby Gerhart and his Stanford bunch Bruins will be taking on in Palo Alto.

Given how the Cardinal thoroughly dominated the Huskies in the trenches last night, making Gerhart look like the best RB in the conference, while turning Locker into something ordinary, I'd say the Bruins will be underdogs against a fired up bunch which will also be chomping for revenge. The last thing UCLA or any of its fans will want to do is look past this team. And we will make sure that no one does that here on Bruins Nation. If you want to talk how UCLA is going to do against any other opponent besides Stanford this coming week, you will have to look to somewhere else because here we will be locking in on the Cardinal the same way we lock onto opponents during March Madness. At this point this is our game of the year, and nothing else is really going to matter. More after the jump.

As mentioned above Stanford Cardinal is going to be one of the two celebrated Pac-10 teams (other one being Oregon) this coming week:

Stanford is on the cusp of breaking through: The Cardinal bullied Washington with 321 yards rushing, and the defense played much better, holding the Huskies to 290 total yards and just one offensive TD. Think there's some regret about how the second half went at Wake Forest? Nonetheless, Stanford sits atop the Pac-10 with a 2-0 record in conference play. Another win or perhaps two and the Cardinal enters the Top 25.

I haven't seen the line for our game yet. I am going to assume they are going to be 4-7 point favorites. Also, I am going to get guess they are going to treat our game as their biggest one in their recent program history. The way it's shaping up now this game is going to be the more pivotal one for early conference positioning, than the one that will take place across the bay.

So the Bruins are going to be taking on a group that will be hungry for revenge and who also like the Tennessee volunteers will feel deep down that they gave the game away to us via the prevent defense last season. I was looking through the stats of last year's game and it was disconcerting to note that the Trees averaged almost 6 yards rushing against our front 7. Well one year later Gerhart seems to be more polished and stronger. He also seems to have a QB in Anrew Luck, who seems to be a better game manager than either Tavita Pritchard or Alex Loukas. Luck is doing heck of a job minimizing his mistakes and picking his opportunities for striking with play action passes.

If the Bruins want to pull out a win next weekend, we will need to be sharp and polished on defense. That means our guys will have to stay within their assignments, minimize mistakes, and do much better job with tackling than what was on display against Kansas State. Not to mention we will need much better play from the special teams coverge and continued improvement on the OL.

I will say again UCLA is not in a position to take Stanford lightly. If I were UCLA coaches and players, I would be extremely careful about saying anything that would give the Cardinal an extra edge. I will just offer up the trash Bob Toledo offered up before taking our Number 4 ranked Bruins up to Palo Alto in 2001:

Chris Lewis [then QB for Stanford], aided by an effective Stanford running game, picked the Bruins apart. And understand, this Bruins defense was considered by many to be the finest in the country. Led by new defensive coordinator Phil Snow, the Bruins' defense had been shopping for a nickname. "The Snowstorm" had been suggested.

Yesterday: dandruff.

Before the game, UCLA coach Bob Toledo said Stanford would draw only about 50,000 fans (64,495 showed up) for the game and he likened that to "a Safeway parking lot."

You have to love it when college football coaches talk trash. Toledo must have been chagrined when his baby blue SUV got totaled by a runaway shopping cart in the hands of a second-stringer.

Well the outcome wasn't fun and many would say that was the game that officially accelerated UCLA football's cratering into total abyss this past decade.

So on that note, let's get ready for a fun game week. Let's dive into our next game. Let's talk about our opponent with respect but no fear. Let's talk about matchups and strategies Neuehisel, Chow and Bullough will be looking at to get a W. Let's lock in and talk this game to death.

Oh and don't forget if you haven't made plans yet, get on them right now. Find a way to get to Palo Alto on Saturday if you live in or around California. As I said up top this is the biggest Pac-10 game UCLA has played since 2001.

GO BRUINS.

OPPONENT PREVIEW: Stanford Cardinal

Dancing Football — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:43:30 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Stanford football success will be relying heavily on Luck this season. Andrew Luck that is. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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Record: 5-7 (2008)

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (3rd season, 9-15)

Offense: 26.3 PPG, 5.4 YPP (2008)

Stanford's offense was a pretty average unit altogether last season. The running game was the clear focus as the Cardinal racked up 490 rushing attempts against just 287 passing attempts. This year looks to be more of the same as Stanford will be armed with a freshman quarterback and a stud running back.

The biggest news out of Stanford this summer was Harbaugh's decision to start redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck over incumbent Tavita Pritchard. Luck was rated the #4 quarterback in the country coming out of high school one year ago, so it is clear that the head coach is taking the chance Luck's talent will overcome his inexperience and he will be more effective overall than Pritchard. Most who have watched Tavita Pritchard play over the last two seasons would agree that is a good bet. Luck will have Stanford's two returning receivers to throw to, Ryan Whalen (a former walk-on) and Doug Baldwin.

While the quarterback situation is very interesting, Stanford looks to make its biggest gains on the ground. The offensive line returns four players with starting experience as they look to open up big holes for star running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart surpassed the the Stanford single season rushing record last year and has set a lofty goal of 2,000 yards in 2009.

Defense: 27.4 PPGA, 5.6 YPPA (2008)

Not to be outdone by the averageness of the offense, the Stanford defense was also able to be middle of the pack last year. Stanford has an opportunity to be good on this side of the ball because their strength starts from the inside out.

The Cardinal defensive line may be the team's best overall unit. Senior defensive end Erik Lorig, a converted tight end, is regarded as the best of the bunch. The Cardinal staff seem to regard Erik as undersized, but at 6'4", 275, he appears to be just right for a Pac 10 defensive end. Lorig teams with 2008 freshman all-american Thomas Keiser to form a formidable defensive end combo.

The linebackers are led by senior Clinton Snyder. He is on a slew of preseason watch lists and is moving to the middle this year. In the defensive backfield, Lott Trophy candidate Bo McNally returns. He led the team in tackles and interceptions last year.

By far the most important player on either side of the ball is SAM linebacker Will Powers. Aside from the fact that he has the best possible surname in the entire world, he also started two games last season. What two games were they you ask? Cal and USC. It is clear that Harbaugh saves Powers for only the most important of situations. Will Powers is also among the smartest of the smarties down at Stanford, as he was named to the Pac 10 all academic team in 2008.

Special Teams:

Stanford was able to control field position as the punting unit led the Pac 10 with a 37.7 net punting average last season. David Green returns as Stanford's punter. It should also be known that SAM linebacker Will Powers plays on special teams, which is what undoubtedly led to the teams ability to cover punts so well a season ago.

Notre Dame transfer kicker Nate Whitaker is first on the depth chart after beating out Travis Golia and his younger brother, Eric Whitaker. Nate Whitaker missed his only field goal attempt while at Notre Dame and was 1 out 2 on extra point conversions. By using this very small sample size and projecting it out over the entire season, it can be determined that A) Stanford will not make a single field goal in 2009 and B) they will get just six points out of half their touchdowns. Head coach Harbaugh should be strongly advised to "go for it" as much as possible. (Except of course in situations where his fantastic punt team can do their work.)

Stanford in in trouble if:

The run game is limited. Harbaugh loves to pound that football. In the CougCenter podcast with Jon Wilner, who covers Stanford for the San Jose Mercury News, Wilner was quoted as saying Harbaugh wants to play "Michigan 1982 football." With the freshman quarterback Andrew Luck out there, it would seem that most teams are going to elect to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop Toby Gerhart. Stanford will be putting a lot of their potential bowl hopes this season on that run game, and if teams are able to stop it, they could be in trouble. The good news for them is that will be a very difficult thing to do.

CougCenter Podcast: Jon Wilner interview

Nuss — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:37:15 -0000

As we threw around ideas of how to maximize the usefulness of the podcast format, many readers expressed a desire to have some kind of opponent preview as part of the format. As we've discovered early on in this process, the podcast with Grady, Craig and I is plenty full enough just talking about the Cougs.

So, rather than try and figure out a way to fit that in with what we've already been doing, I took it upon myself to figure out another way to meet your thirst for information: Contacting an opponent expert to give their perspective on the upcoming game.

Ideally, we'd like for that to be an opposing fan blogger, specifically from the SBN network. But Stanford doesn't have any fan blogs. (Apparently, they're too busy diabolically running the world or dreaming up outlandish band routines or something to write about their sports teams.)

So, we called up Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News to talk about the trees, and I gotta say -- this is a must listen for all of you. He's a fantastic college football writer -- his College Sports Hotline blog is mandatory reading for any Pac-10 fan -- and his insights into Stanford are, frankly, awesome.

You can download the full file here, or just listen via the player below. If you're interested in subscribing to the podcast series, you can either search "CougCenter" in the iTunes store, or manually subscribe using the following feed: http://recordings.talkshoe.com/rss61020.xml

Previewing the season: Stanford Cardinal

JConant — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:31:18 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Quarterback Andrew Luck (12) is looking to restore balance to Stanford's offensive attack.

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If you dig into the middle of the Pac-10 preseason rankings and look for a team who might beat Oregon on the road, the answer will often come up Stanford. It's premature to get too excited about what third-year coach Jim Harbaugh is doing on The Farm, but it would appear Stanford is a team that's moving on up. The evidence? The Cardinal won five games last season for only the second time in seven years. At 5-7, Stanford just could not come up with that one road upset, losing to Notre Dame, UCLA and Oregon each by seven points or less. That, and Stanford's recruiting is getting better with each year of Harbaugh's tenure.

At the very least, Stanford in 2008 established success in protecting their home turf. The Cardinal won four straight at Stanford Stadium, including wins over bowl-teams-to-be Oregon State and Arizona, before dropping a late-season game to USC, 45-23.

Will 2009 be the season that Stanford takes the next step forward?

The Cardinal return 17 starters from last year's team (9 offense, 8 defense). That makes Stanford one of the most veteran teams in the conference. This is a group with a lunch pail mentality, coached by a man who ESPN's Ted Miller referred to as "high energy, high optimism". Probably the only thing holding Stanford back from being a bowl team is a winning mentality, and you can bet Harbaugh's been working on that obstacle.

Oregon travels to Stanford on November 7, one week after the Halloween party with USC in Eugene. Stanford has the advantage of a bye heading into the game with the Ducks...this match-up representing the end of Stanford's "lighter" part of the schedule. After Oregon, the Cardinal play at USC, then host Cal and Notre Dame. Will Stanford face a Duck team battered by its early schedule, looking for late-season redemption? Or, will they face a Duck team basking in the national spotlight, looking to seal the deal down the stretch?

The answer to that question may very well dictate who the favorite is in this game. Whatever the case, the 2009 Oregon vs. Stanford game could end up being a pivotal point in the Pac-10 race. Let's look at the match-ups.

Oregon Offense vs. Stanford Defense

You won't get much of a read on the Stanford defense by talking to their D-coordinator, Ron Lynn. In a recent Q&A, Lynn threw around earth-shattering phrases like "making progress...not there yet...probably online with where we need to be...never satisfied." The soul of Stanford's defense is its front line, where three starters return. However, the Cardinal gave up 153 yards rushing per game last season, and that group will have to do better against a premier running game like Oregon's. The one new starter on the d-line will be DE Thomas Kaiser, a pass rush specialist who led the Cardinal with six sacks last season.

Stanford's linebackers will be experienced, and very likely improved. And, there is depth at the position. The secondary should be a strength. That group including safety Bo McNally, who led the 2008 team in tackles (76) and interceptions (4).

The word we hear over and over about Stanford is "tough". There's no question the Cardinal can pressure a QB. They ranked 3rd in the conference for sacks last season. The question is, for all its toughness, does Stanford's defense have the speed to defend Oregon's one-on-one-in-space running scheme? Probably not. But you can bet the Cardinal will be well prepared for the quirks of Oregon's spread following two weeks of preparation.

I still give Oregon the advantage here, though it's probably less of an advantage than it was last season when the Ducks struggled to find their rhythm offensively until very late in the game.

Oregon Defense vs. Stanford Offense

Toby Gerhart runs left. Toby Gerhart runs right. Wherever Toby runs defenders better tackle him at his ankles. Gerhart is a 235-pound bruiser who set aside pro baseball to come back for his senior year as a running back at Stanford. He put up 1,135 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Good stuff. Now, forget all that. Oregon's defense excels at stopping the run. Gerhardt will do some damage, but he can't beat Oregon on his own. The wild card to this game is Stanford's passing game, which will fall on the shoulders of redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck.

If Luck lives up to the hype - he did beat out senior Tavita Pritchard for the job - he could create something Stanford's offense hasn't had for a while: balance. Reports suggest Luck has all the tools. He's 6-4, sees the field well and has a strong, accurate arm. What he may lack is a quality group of receivers. Stanford returns its three top receivers from last year, but that's not necessarily saying a lot. Ted Miller's preseason ranking for the Cardinal receiving unit was no. 9 in the Pac-10. It's only fair to suggest that ranking might be more a reflection of Stanford's prior passing woes than what Luck might achieve this season. Whatever the case, those receivers have a lot to prove.

For Will Tukuafu, a 6-4, 235-pound pocket passer must sound like a hot, juicy steak or maybe lettuce wraps from P.F. Chang's. If Luck delivers an effective passing attack - we'll certainly know by Nov. 7 - Oregon may have to dial up the pressure. Expect the Ducks to bring some blitzes and varied defensive looks to force the inexperienced Luck out of his comfort zone. It's the kind of pressure we've heard both Nick Aliotti and d-line coach Jerry Azzinaro talk about his fall. Time will tell if Oregon can bring the pressure effectively.

I this case, I can't call an advantage one way or the other. Luck is simply an unknown. If he's on and a better-than-average Stanford offensive line can protect him, this could be a shoot-out.

Special Teams

Both teams appear to have potential field goal issues, though Oregon's Morgan Flint is mostly reliable inside 40 yards. Stanford will have a new kicker this season, probably Nate Whitaker, a transfer from Notre Dame. David Green will handle the punts again this year for the Cardinal. He averaged 39.9 yards a punt as a sophomore in 2008. Stanford finished in the upper half of the Pac-10 for both punt and kick returns, and those units are largely intact. Still, Oregon's overall team speed and depth at linebacker probably give the Ducks a slight edge in special teams.

Conclusion

Expect a battle from a Stanford team which probably is going bowling if they can win one of their final four games. With an opportunity to rest and heal up while Oregon is pounding it out with USC, Stanford undoubtedly will see their game versus the Ducks as the best opportunity to get that win. Unless their early season has gone horribly wrong, the Cardinal will be hungry.

There also could be plenty of motivation for Oregon. If the Ducks are coming off a win over USC (yes, that's a big IF), it's full throttle to the finish. Expect a very physical contest in which neither team pulls away and a margin of victory of a touchdown or less. Oregon has the edge in talent and team speed on both sides of the ball. Still, it will take a huge effort to get past Stanford on the road if they're sniffing their first bowl game since the 2001 Seattle Bowl.

The incomparable 2009 SBN Pac-10 Football Preview

Nuss — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 15:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

USC has more question marks this year than at any time in their reign of dominance over the Pac-10, starting with who will play quarterback. Will freshman Matt Barkley be the guy? (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

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We SB Nation bloggers are quite proud of our independence. Yet, from time to time, an event so compelling comes along so as to draw us out from our communities and collaborate on a project of such import, the very future of SBN depends on it.

The beginning of football season is just such an event.

For seven years now, every Pac-10 football season has approached with the same question in mind: Is this the year that Oregon/Cal/Oregon State/ANYBODY supplants USC as the champion of the West Coast's premier conference? Not since 2002, when Washington State advanced to the Rose Bowl by virtue of its head-to-head victory over the Trojans, has someone other than USC represented the Pac-10 as the league's champion.

Could this finally be the year it happens? Can Jeremiah Masoli lead Oregon to the heights that Dennis Dixon's knee could not? Can Jahvid Best carry Cal there? Will Oregon State take that next step to elite status by competing for the conference title year in and year out?

In a lot of ways, this sure feels like the year. The Trojans will be breaking in another new quarterback, and while that hasn't exactly stopped them before -- a couple of guys named John David Booty and Mark Sanchez did OK -- you have to wonder if their luck doesn't run out at some point. Defensively, they'll have to replace three linebackers selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and eight starters overall. Again, they've done this before ... but still.

Nationally, the take is that this string of dominance by USC says more about the rest of the conference than it does the Trojans. True or not, that's the perception. If this conference ever wants to get the respect it thinks it deserves, it's going to have to start consistently challenging the Trojans for that title, and occasionally taking one.

This just might be the year.

Predicted Order of Finish

As voted on by the Pac-10 SBN bloggers ...

Top Five Pac-10 Heisman Trophy Candidates

1. Jahvid Best

#4 / Running Back / California Golden Bears

Height: 5-10

Weight: 195

Year: junior

Best is absolutely electric; he's been described as 'silly-fast'. He's a human highlight reel who's a threat to take the ball to the house every time. He's the leading returning rusher in college football, averaging over 8 yards every time he touches the ball. If Cal wins 10+ games, he's the prototypical candidate, right?

- California Golden Blogs

2. Jacquizz Rodgers

#1 / Running Back / Oregon St. Beavers

Height: 5-7

Weight: 191

Year: sophomore

Rodgers burst onto the scene last year with a sensational campaign as a true freshman, rushing or 1,253 yards in 2008. His small size and shifty moves make him a fun player to watch -- and a tough target for opponents to bring down.

- Building the Dam

3. Jeremiah Masoli

#8 / Quarterback / Oregon Ducks

Height: 5-11

Weight: 214

Year: junior

Jeremiah Masoli is not your typical QB. He’s short, and a bit squatty, but does he ever produce. He can throw the ball, he can run the ball, and he doesn’t make mistakes. In his second year with Chip Kelly, look for him to become the most productive player in the Pac-10, and maybe run over a few safeties in the process.

- Addicted to Quack

4. Taylor Mays

#2 / Safety / USC Trojans

Height: 6-3

Weight: 235

Year: senior

Normally, defensive players don't stand a chance in the Heisman race. But Mays never has really fit the mold. A freak of an athlete -- he hits like a linebacker but runs like a wide receiver -- Mays has two things going for him that every Heisman candidate needs: 1) A well-hyped reputation that proceeds him, and 2) He plays for one of the best programs in the country. A big game against Ohio State would set his candidacy into motion.

- Conquest Chronicles

5. Jake Locker

#10 / Quarterback / Washington Huskies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 222

Year: junior

The Huskies likely won't be very good this year, but Locker is an undeniable talent and a dark-horse Heisman candidate. He's a run/pass threat who has been more run than pass so far. If new coach Steve Sarkisian can get his completion percentage up, and the Huskies can win a few more games than people think, Locker has the opportunity to put up some eye-popping numbers.

- CougCenter.com

Team Capsules (in predicted order of finish)

1. USC Trojans

By Conquest Chronicles

Overview: USC has faced using a new starting QB in the past and they have responded. The Trojans have all of their starters back on offense (except Patrick Turner) and although they are replacing most of the defense, the defense will be better in 2009 than a lot of people think. I do think the rest of the Pac-10 is catching up to USC, but until someone actually knocks USC out of the top spot ...

Key to Success: The QB position is the key to USC's success in 2009. With Aaron Corp out for a short time with an injury, don't go to sleep on true freshman Matt Barkley, who has really stunned many with quick grasp of the offense and his maturity at handling the pressure. Barkley has a ways to go, but he is a lot closer than others in his position in the past.

Potential Achilles Heel: See above ...

Best Case Scenario: USC Wins the Pac-10 but will probably have 1-2 losses.

Worst Case Scenario: USC loses the pac-10 because of some bone head lead loss in conference.

Likely Scenario: USC will have a tough time with their road schedule and their winning the Pac-10 will probably come down to the last week of the season.

2. Cal Golden Bears

By California Golden Blogs

Overview: The Nate Longshore era is over. For better or for worse, the Bears will be entering a new age of Tedford football at Strawberry Canyon, where faces have changed but the strategy remains the same: Run the ball, terrorize on defense. Those were the characteristics of the 2004 team that should've been Rose Bowl-bound, and while Tedford searches for the next great Cal QB to follow in Aaron Rodgers' footsteps, there is hope the 2009 team can finally put it all together. With eight returning starters on defense, eight on offense, plus one of the most spectacular players in the country, what's not to like?

Key to Success: The Bears' hopes to make it to the Rose Bowl remain firmly perched on the spectacular Jahvid Best. Best was the main reason for five or six of Cal's wins last season; with a battered offensive line and only sporadic quarterback play, everyone looked to Best to provide the offense with some spark. Get him the ball in space, and he's a threat to take it to the house every time, leaving defensive backs grasping at air. Cal's defense is good enough to keep the Bears in every game, but it will be up to Jahvid (and those who block for him) to put up enough points to win them.

Potential Achilles Heel: Kevin Riley still won't inspire many Cal fans until he can show he can complete a short route downfield consistently. He struggled with his command and mechanics all last season, and he and a green receiving corp never got on the same page. With another offensive coordinator coming in, it'll be most important to monitor his development as the leader of our offense. Anything the passing game can do to ease the pressure on Best will pay big dividends in the Pac-10 title chase. Runner-up: Our placekickers can't be trusted with a kick from over 30-35 yards, and kickoffs were a dicey proposition all last year.

Best Case Scenario: Pasadena. The default answer of a Cal fan. This year, though, there are two choices. We'll be happy with either one.

Worst Case Scenario: Beating USC, somehow nursing a one game lead in the Pac-10, everything going smoothly into the Big Game ... and blowing our Rose Bowl chances on the field of the Furdies. Yeah, brace yourself Cal fans. Less heartbreaking would be a repeat of the sort of meltdown that imploded the Bears' 2007 season. Even in the worst case, however, I can't see this team limping to the finish line with less than a 7-5 record.

Likely Scenario: If Riley is good and everything else holds to form, we're finally BCS-bound. If Riley struggles, we get our pick of the ESPN bowl bonanza. The Trojans will never be more vulnerable than they are this fall. The Bears will never be stronger. I would put better than even odds on the Bears winning at least 10 games this season. Our chances rest with our quarterback. Haven't we been here before?

3. Oregon Ducks

By Addicted to Quack

Overview: Oregon is beginning a new era this season, but it really doesn’t seem like much has changed. New coach Chip Kelly will continue his offensive explosion that has averaged 475 ypg and 40ppg over the past 2 years. Duck fans expect great things, as Oregon is loaded with talent at the skill positions, and the inexperienced offensive line will be coached by the top offensive line coach in the country, Steve Greatwood.

On the other side of the ball, the Ducks will rely on speed. Oregon has an experienced and talented group of linebackers, and the team is led in the secondary by All Pac-10 CB Walter Thurmond and hard hitting safety TJ Ward (Google "TJ Ward hits Zac Robinson;" you’ll be glad you did). Though Oregon’s defense has been a weak line in the past, it has the talent to improve from last season, when the Ducks’ D spent more time on the field than any team in the nation.

Key to Success: The passing defense. Oregon fans are always up in arms about the secondary, which they constantly feel is underachieving. Last year, the unit was supposed to be the best in the nation, but then gave up a combined 829 yards to BSU and USC.

This year, the unit must improve, which will be a very difficult task as Oregon lost two starters in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. The secondary is talented with a finally fully healthy Thurmond, who should be one of the top cornerbacks in the nation. But Oregon will need young players to step up at the opposite corner position, as well as at rover.

Potential Achilles Heel: Any follower of the Pac-10 knows that injuries have spelled disaster for the Ducks time and again in recent years, most notably when Dennis Dixon’s knee gave out on a terrible night in Tucson. This season is no exception, with only one experienced QB on the roster. QB Jeremiah Masoli is backed up by Nate Costa and Darron Thomas but Costa has injured his ACL three times and Thomas is an inconsistent true sophomore.

Health will also be vital at receiver and on the offensive line. The WR position has seen multiple injuries through the first week of fall camp, and the offensive line is still healing from spring ball. As the offensive line returns only 20 total starts, health will be vital in ensuring this unit can come together and help Oregon compete with the upper echelon of the Pac-10.

Best Case Scenario: Go undefeated and win the bowl game against anyone not named Florida. All the games on Oregon’s schedule are definitely winnable. Oregon has the talent to realistically stick with almost any team in the country, and has a very favorable schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: Oregon’s offensive line never comes together and neither does their defensive line or secondary. This means that Oregon can’t beat either USC or Cal at home, and drops a few games to teams like Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford. Oregon goes 6-7 after losing in Chip Kelly’s bowl debut.

Likely Scenario: Oregon goes 9-3, losing to USC, splitting Cal and BSU, and dropping another along the way. Oregon has a lot of talent, yet a lot of inexperience in a few key positions, which could mean inconsistency. But Oregon wins its bowl game, setting the stage for a big 2010.

4. Oregon State Beavers

By Building The Dam

Overview: For the second straight year, Oregon State will be looking to reload on defense. All four members of the secondary are gone from a year ago, as well as three from the defensive line. The linebackers, led by Keaton Kristick, will be the strength of the defense and should help stop this year's talented crop of Pac-10 running backs. Any pressure the defensive line (watch out for DT Steven Paea) can put on the quarterback will help the young secondary. On offense, the healthy quarterback is Sean Canfield, with Lyle Moevao taking a backseat -- for now. Jacquizz Rodgers returns at RB, but there is little proven depth behind him -- and the receivers are young.

Key to Success: Two things quickly come to mind. The first is the offensive line. LT Andy Levitre and LG Adam Speer are off to the NFL, leaving behind a young, inexperienced group-- especially on the left side. Highly touted recruit Michael Philipp has come into camp to compete for the LT spot, and has been turning some heads. According to HC Mike Riley, Philipp will either "start or redshirt", but at 6-3, 320, the Beavers need him to learn the system and start this year. The other key is Jacquizz Rodgers. He needs to stay healthy all year, or this could turn into a train wreck on offense with the inexperience at receiver, especially with Darrell Catchings going down with a wrist injury early in fall camp.

Potential Achilles Heel: The secondary, which isn’t young -- just inexperienced -- could be the achilles heel this year. It shouldn’t be quite like 2005, when the Beavers baptized freshmen Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis by fire at cornerback, but all four to-be starters don’t have much starting experience. It will be up to Tim Clark to hold down the group -- he has the most experience and should turn into the leader of the defensive backfield.

Best Case Scenario: The best case scenario this year is that the Beavers win all their home games (it’s doable), and then go out and win most of their tough games on the road. With road trips to Cal, Arizona State, USC, and Oregon, it’s not going to be easy, but the Beavers know they have the talent and the wherewithal to do it.

Worst Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario would be that the Beavers can’t win the games they need to win at home, and they struggle against the Pac-10’s best on the road -- which could mean that Jacquizz Rodgers goes down with an injury.

Likely Scenario: Most likely, the Beavers will win seven or eight games. It's very possible that this squad could win more-- and it probably wouldn't surprise many, based on what Riley has been able to do in the past. Look for the Beavers to get off to a better start in years past with the more favorable pre-season schedule, have a solid season, and win their sixth straight bowl game.

5. Arizona State Sun Devils

By House of Sparky

Overview: 2008 is known as the year of disappointment in Tempe. After an extremely promising 2007 campaign where they finished 10-3 and won a share of the Pac-10 with USC, the Sun Devils found themselves overconfident and overmatched, going 5-7 and missing the postseason for the first time in years. 2009 brings a new quarterback in senior Danny Sullivan, and a highly touted recruiting class that could pay instant dividends on the playing field.

The Sun Devils are headed to Athens, Georgia to play the Bulldogs in a highly anticipated rematch of the drubbing of 2008. Going into a vaunted SEC stadium and pulling off the victory would give the Sun Devils a huge vote of confidence. In all likelihood, however, this team is a year away from legitimacy, after the recruiting class gets some experience in 2009

Key to Success: If the defense can live up to its massive potential, ASU will be a sleeper pick to finish in the top 3 of the Pac-10. If true freshman LB Vontaze Burfict is eligible for the 2009 season, he and fellow true freshman DT Corey Adams will join an experienced, tenacious D led by LBs Gerald Munns and Mike Nixon. Given the uncertainty on offense, a reliable defense would give ASU a fighting chance against any competitor. Stop the run in the Pac-10, and you can put up wins. There isn't a single QB in the Pac-10 that can break down a great defense on his own.

Potential Achilles Heel: In a fairly obvious move, House of Sparky picks the quarterback position. Danny Sullivan is currently the guy, but Samson Szakacsy and Brock Osweiler are both breathing down his neck on the depth chart. In terms of talent, Osweiler is king. But as a true freshman, it's a spotty idea to even consider him for the role. As for savvy, it might just be Szakacsy. He's a laid back dude who enjoys surfing while at home in California, but he has the resolve to lead this team in the desert. As for experience, Danny is the only one who has ever played college football. Hopefully, Sullivan assumes the role nicely and takes us to a nice 8-win season. But with this lack of control over the circumstances, the QB position will be worth watching for the Devils in 2009.

Best Case Scenario: Sullivan catches onto the starting role, and the defense destroys the pretenders in the Pac-10. ASU goes into Georgia and gives them a heck of a fight, earning the respect of SEC fans everywhere. ASU wins 9 games, culminating in a victory over Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl. Thomas Weber wins his second Lou Groza Award.

Worst Case Scenario: Sullivan breaks down against Georgia, and we're embarrassed once again by the Bulldogs. Pac-10 competition brings about the emergence of Szakascsy, but he cannot fulfill the fans' expectations. Vontaze Burfict is deemed ineligible for competition, and has to sit out 2009. ASU wins 4 games, and Dennis Erickson is fired

Likely Scenario: Sullivan is an average Pac-10 QB, and we win 6 games, making it into the postseason, but lose to BYU in the Las Vegas bowl. Osweiler gets some reps, and is named starter going into the 2010 season. The defense scores 10 defensive touchdowns, the main bright spot on the team.

6. Stanford Cardinal

By CougCenter.com

Overview: Jim Harbaugh's program is one on the come. The Cardinal were living in the bottom of the Pac-10 in the wake of Tyrone Willingham's departure and the disaster that was Walt Harris, but after steady gains the past two seasons and one of the nation's top recruiting classes, Stanford has its eyes set on the top half of the conference. Harbaugh's got people believing down on The Farm.

Key to Success: Quarterback Andrew Luck. The highly regarded reshirt freshman has supplanted senior Tavita Pritchard, and by all accounts has the ability to be a star. If he can live up to the hype and provide a legitimate compliment to the already potent running attack led by Toby Gerhart, the Cardinal offense could take a quantum leap this year. And if it does, there's no telling what kind of noise Stanford can make.

Potential Achilles Heel: The offense ought to be good, but there are some nagging questions. The aforementioned quarterback battle could spell trouble if Luck doesn't pan out -- Pritchard has had plenty of issues over the years. And while Gerhart is a freight train, the offensive line has some new faces. The defense should be solid again, but if the offense can't come up to speed, the Cardinal might lose some games they might otherwise win.

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinal make the most of their relatively soft landing to begin the year, winning their first five against WSU, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Washington and UCLA. Emboldened by their fantastic start, Stanford goes 4-3 the rest of the way, winning a game or two against the conference's heavyweights to finish the year 9-3 and in the Sun Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario: That soft landing? Yeah, not so soft. WSU upsets Stanford after Luck throws a trio of interceptions, and it's a portent of things to come, as the Cardinal head to Wake and lose there, too. The bad start throws a wrench in the Cardinal improvement plan, and they take a step back to 4-8.

Likely Scenario: Stanford wins four of its first five, and goes 3-4 over the final seven to get to 7-5 and Las Vegas.

7. Arizona Wildcats

By AZ Desert Swarm

Overview: The 2009 season will be all about momentum. Nic Foles and Matt Scott battle out the quarterback position while the receivers, running backs, and offensive line return tons of experience. Our defense should be solid as well with a D-line that will be strong, aggressive backers, and anchors on the defensive backfield in Cam Nelson and Devin Ross. Arizona's recruiting class is the strongest since Stoops has been in Tucson. Three guys could make immediate impacts as true freshman (C.J. Parish, Trevor Erno, and Adam Hall). The Cats brought in Jonathan Hollins as a Junior transfer as well as Jack Julsing and Shane Zink for immediate experience and upper classmen strength.

Key to Success: The key to our success will definitely be the offensive line play, giving our young quarterbacks the time to throw the ball. I think that Matt Scott will be the starter at the beginning of the year. Scott will have the mobility factor that Foles isn't able to bring to the team. Nic Grigsby and Keolin will be dominant out of the backfield and shouldn't miss a beat on the offensive end. Wide receivers are deep (minus Mike Thomas) and will be open, they just need a QB to get them the ball. Defensive line is really deep with the return of Elmore, Mitchell, Horton, Reed, and the addition of Hollins. Linebackers is the weak point, with our DB's returning two guys who have lots of experience.

Potential Achilles Heel: Arizona's achilles heel is the lack of cohesiveness with the offense. We will have a new QB in Scott, or Foles. Our offensive line lost three guys, and will be making patchwork of returning backups from last year and juco transfers in Zink and Jusling. The receivers will need to find a man to step up and take Thomas' spot, most likely Delashaun Dean or Terrell Turner. Arizona's offense faces plenty of tough teams in the Pac-10 this year, will have to play a scary Central Michigan team, and travel to Iowa to play a Big-10 team on their third week of the year.

Best Case Scenario: Take care of business in the non-conference schedule by taking out Central Michigan, Northern Arizona, and Iowa without missing a beat. The next three games are Oregon State, Washington and Stanford. The Cats will probably win 2 out of 3 of these. I think our best case scenario for the Cats is to start out the season 5-1 heading back to Tucson to play UCLA. A win at home against UCLA is definitely winnable. Taking out UCLA, then lowly Washington State could lead the Cats to 7-1. I think that's where the honeymoon stops and the Cats struggle the rest of the way out. At California, home against Oregon, at Arizona State, then to USC will be a brutal way to end the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Lose at home to Central Michigan (scary team) to start the season, and then at Iowa two weeks later. I think a slide in the beginning of the year could snowball the Cats downward and cause problems for them at Oregon State and Washington. I think a 1-4 start would be the worst case scenario for Arizona. After Oregon State, UCLA and Washington could prove formidable foes. I already talked about our year end schedule, which could easily be 4 losses for the Cats this year.

Likely Scenario: A middle ground of the above scenarios. The Cats will take out Central Michigan and Northern Arizona no problem. Travel to Iowa will be a challenge. Oregon State in Corvallis will be a huge win, but unlikely. The Cats will finish 8-4 this year, but will need to find a way to put up point like they did last year. Sonny Dykes has done a great job installing the spread offense in Tucson and Matt Scott could be an unbelievable fit in the system.

8. UCLA Bruins

By Bruins Nation

Overview: To say Rick Neuheisel was handed a program that had to be built from the ground up is a massive understatement and last season couldn't even be called building a foundation. Last season, Neuheisel just cleared the scraps off the lot. This season, he will begin to build his foundation. With the infusion of talent thanks to great recruiting, some fantastic offseason work and a year of development, this program will take a major step forward this year. They won't compete for a Pac-10 title, but they'll be competitive in every game and that's progress.

Key to Success: The Bruins' key to success will be the man under center, Kevin Prince. While the offensive line is the unit that needs to take the biggest step forward, the quarterback position is still the most important on the football field and UCLA will send a redshirt freshman who hasn't played in two years (season-ending injury in the first game of his senior year of high school) into the fire. He does have a good arm though and has drawn rave reviews for his football smarts and leadership qualities. His ability to keep the turnovers at a minimum and handle the pressure sure to come from dropping back behind a green offensive line will tell the tale of the offense.

Potential Achilles Heel: The Bruins' potential achilles heel is the same as last season. While the team had issues last year, no unit caused UCLA more problems than the offensive line. The running backs never had holes to run through and last year's quarterback, Kevin Craft, showed as much toughness as anyone in the country just to make it through each game with the beating he was taking. The offensive line's first job this year will be to open some holes to get a running game going. If the Bruins have a respectable running game, then UCLA will have a chance to take advantage of the talent at the skill positions.

Best Case Scenario: The UCLA offensive line, which is amazingly inexperienced, but has some talent, could come together and provides decent play. Kevin Prince could maximize his talent a little earlier than expected and mature quickly, while the defense remains as injury-free as possible to be led by Brian Price, Reggie Carter and Alterraun Verner to an eight-win season.

Worst Case Scenario: Kevin Prince and the offensive line's play leans more towards inexperience than talent, while the linebacking core, which is strong but thin, falls prey to injury. With the offensive line and QB unable to take advantage of the talent on the perimeter, the offense flounders and the lack of linebackers lets opposing teams control possession as UCLA fails to go bowling again.

Likely Scenario: The Bruins will be inconsistent as they mesh some extreme inexperience in with their handful of great players. The offense will be much improved and keep from turning the ball over too much, but is never explosive. The defense should be steady and help the offense out with field position and special teams is stout to win UCLA seven games.

9. Washington Huskies

By CougCenter

Overview: The 2009 Huskies are in rebuilding mode under new head coach Steve Sarkisian after going through total destruction mode under the Willingham and Gilbertson eras. There is hope on Montlake, as Sark has shown the ability to bring in big recruits. If he can get those recruits to execute his offensive plan the same way his USC superstuds did, then Husky fans may see the glory of the Don James days return. Of course, having Joe Montana roaming the sidelines watching his son, all the while bumping into a few recruits and boosters, probably won't hurt.

Key to Success: Jake Locker's arm. We all know Jake can run. Last year we saw what happens when Jake relies on his legs too much. The problem is Locker has only been effective when he has made plays with his legs. Unfortunately, he has not impressed when putting the ball in the air. His most famous throw is a behind the back toss that led to a 15 yard penalty against BYU last year. If Jake can improve his throwing accuracy, the Husky offense would become difficult to stop.

Potential Achilles Heel: There is a common thread that connects all historically bad football teams. Poor line play. The Husky offensive line was very ineffective in 2008 (2.9 YPC). It doesn't matter how talented Jake Locker or any other skill player on the UW offense is, if the line doesn't block, the offense won't move.

Best Case Scenario: Jake Locker stays in the pocket a little more, hits some open receivers, continues to make some plays with his legs, and keeps his leg out of a cast for all twelve games. The lines on both sides hold up just enough and the Huskies go 5-7.

Worst Case Scenario: Another 0-12 season is unlikely thanks to the scheduled W known as Idaho. Worst case, the Huskies go 1-11 with a historic third straight Apple Cup loss to the Washington State Cougars.

Likely Scenario: The Pac 10 is down this year, but UW was just flat out bad last year. It would be a lot to ask to challenge for a bowl game. The Huskies will most likely beat Idaho, Wazzu, and either Arizona or Oregon at home. On the road, they could get one from either Stanford or UCLA. UW ends the season at 4-8.

10. Washington State Cougars

By CougCenter

Overview: The Cougs are coming off of perhaps the worst season in the history of the program. A roster already low on Pac-10-caliber talent was made worse by a plethora of injuries, especially on offense: Five different quarterbacks saw action for the Cougs and seven different offensive line combinations started games. The result was ugly: The Cougs' eight Pac-10 losses were by a combined score of 440-61. Ouchy.

But there is hope that this year can be better. There is a lot of experience returning on offense, and a number of transfers join the defensive ranks. Additionally, the team dedicated itself to strength and conditioning in the offseason, making gains that have been noticeable to observers close to the program. It should add up to the team being more competitive in 2009.

Key to Success: The biggest problem for this team last year was that it was physically dominated at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. The defensive allowed a whopping 5.78 yards per attempt last year (dead last in FBS), most of which you can lay at the feet of the line. Add in the fact that they had just 15 sacks against FBS competition, and you can that the rest of the defense never really had a chance. The story was much the same on the offensive side: 2.75 yards per rushing attempt (No. 116), 42 sacks allowed (No. 117).

If the big fellas on the offensive and defensive lines can put those strength gains to good use -- holding their own in the trenches and avoiding injury -- this team stands a real chance of being a lot more competitive.

Potential Achilles Heel: Injuries, plain and simple. This team still is paper thin at just about every position not named running back -- the Cougs are loaded there, led by explosive Cal transfer James Montgomery -- and if any unit suffers a sudden spate of injuries, it could undermine the effort of the entire team. The positive news is that it's so far, so good in camp, as no key players have suffered notable injuries; at this time last year, the training table was already overflowing. The Cougs will need that to continue in order to make the strides they want to make this year. Otherwise, it could be a replay of 2008 until more reinforcements come next fall.

Best Case Scenario: With last year's experience fresh in their minds, the Cougs play inspired football. The strength and conditioning gains made in the offseason are real, and the team is able to withstand the physical punishment of Pac-10 play. They also get a little lucky in avoiding major injuries. The offense is able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air, and the defense employs a bend-but-don't-break philosophy that allows them to give the offense a chance. It all adds up to the Cougs shocking some people en route to a 5-7 season.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries pile up again, and so do the losses. Another string of embarrassing defeats has fans questioning Paul Wulff's ability to turn the program around, and worse than that, the players' commitment, which looked so strong in the offseason, begins to waver. WSU finishes the year without a win, and Wulff never gets to see the rebuilding job come to fruition.

Likely Scenario: The team is better. Not great, but better. They're not winning a whole lot more games, but they're in a lot more games than they were a year ago. There still are some lopsided scores, but clearly, progress has been made and things are heading in the right direction. The Cougs get a couple of non-conference wins against SMU and Hawaii, jump up to bite either Arizona State or UCLA, and finish up the year with yet another win over Washington. Four wins? We'll take it.

A Post-Spring Look At: Stanford

Jake Bertalotto — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:46:59 -0000

Toby Gerhart returns as Stanford's leading rusher from 2008. (via Lance Iversen/ The Chronicle)

View full size photo »

(Note: Many of the links below go to SB Nation Player Pages)

Oregon State will host Stanford at Reser Stadium on October 10th. Last year, the Beavers opened their season with Stanford and lost 28-36.

Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh seemingly summed up Stanford's offensive scheme when he sat down with a local talk show a few weeks ago.

"Number-7 is our signature guy. We are going to get him the ball!"

Toby Gerhart, who wasn't selected in this month's MLB draft, will return to Stanford for his senior year. The two sport star, who made a trip to Omaha with the baseball team last year, is enjoying an extended summer which is allowing him to prepare more for football season. Last year, Gerhart rushed for 1,136 yards and 15 touchdowns. When asked by the Examiner how many yards he would rush for this year, Gerhart did not pause. "2,000 yards."

"I love talking about Toby Gerhart" Harbaugh told a Comcast SportsNet crew. "He has great balance, vision and you have to tackle him down around the legs because if you go high, he'll bounce off of you and he has the speed to break away."

Gerhart will have a good chance to reach his goal behind an experienced line that includes senior tackles Matt Kopa and Chris Marinelli.

Said Harbaugh: "We will have a very physical offensive line, much improved wide receivers and tight ends and fullback Owen Marecic is a special, special player"

Marecic, the former Jesuit High star, has been a key piece of Stanford's blocking schemes over the last two years, but figures to increase his carries this year to take some of the load off of Gerhart.

As for other comments from the coach, he again named Andrew Luck the starting quarterback for Stanford although the competition with Tavita Pritchard will go on. "It is a fluid situation. Andrew Luck is our starter out of spring ball, but Pritchard has 19 career starts and some big wins like against USC. He will compete."

More on Luck: "He had a very good spring game, but it was not just the practice game, he did that well all spring."

Luck completed 18 of 25 passes for 352 yards and five touchdowns to lead the White team to a 42-17 victory over the Cardinal in the annual Cardinal and White Spring Game. He tossed touchdown passes of 41, 16, 20, 4 and 32 yards. Two of the touchdown passes went to Richard Sherman, who also shined on defense for the White team, finishing with eight tackles

Fact or Fiction: Jeremiah Masoli is the best quarterback in the Pac-10

dvieira — Tue, 26 May 2009 17:00:17 -0000

Last week's "Fact or Fiction" was such a kick in the pants, the Addicted to Quack editors got together for a Memorial Day Weekend email extravaganza discussing an entirely new topic, one sure to cause saber rattling from all across the Pac-10. A topic so bold, so outside the box, that I shudder even in writing it. We are talking quarterbacks this week. The 2009 season looks to be interesting as several teams will be bringing in new quarterbacks to fill voids left by graduation and the NFL Draft. Oregon has a clearly established number 1 guy but Jeremiah Masoli isn't the only big name coming back as a few other teams will be returning starting signal callers. With all of the set up and pagentry afforded to us by our lush contracts here at ATQ, I give to you this week's question.

Fact or Fiction: Jeremiah Masoli is the best quarterback in the Pac-10.

JConant > FACT

Hmm... There are so many ways to define "best". I'm going to go with who will be the All-Pac-10 QB at the end of the season. So, my answer is FACT, Jeremiah Masoli is the best QB in the Pac-10.

Jake Locker probably should have been, but that's not happening for him at this point. After two seasons of injuries and limited development, Locker can't do it alone. And on that UW team, he's pretty much alone. Kevin Riley (Cal) could pull it off behind a solid line and running game. Whoever QBs OSU could do the same, but only if two guys named Rogers stay healthy all season. Would anyone really be surprised if Aaron Corp is great at USC? Would anyone really be surprised if he isn't great and gets replaced by freshman phenom Matt Barkley?

Stanford - new guy. ASU - new guy. UCLA - new guy. Arizona - new guy. WSU - doesn't matter, they blow.

Masoli wins almost by default, though he's probably good enough to win anyways. I would suggest that the best quarterback Oregon faces all year won't be from the Pac-10.

PaulSF > FACT

Every part of me wants to say FICTION, just to break the cycle, but I simply cannot. This is an absolute FACT, for all the same reasons Jeremy outlined. His only competition will come from a handful of first-year quarterbacks and Locker. I legitimately think Locker is the only guy who could win the award other than Masoli barring something completely unexpected. If Washington wins 5 or 6 games, Locker would definitely be in the running.

But let's be honest: There's no way in hell that is happening.

jtlight > FACT

It would be fun to be contrary, but there is no competition at this point. Masoli will almost definitely be the most productive QB in the Pac-10 this season.

While Jake Locker could be more physically talented, he does not have the consistency even close to necessary to push Masoli. The only player I think have a decent chance to overtaking Masoli is whoever starts for USC, simply because they play for USC. If the USC QB is efficient and productive, he could overtake Masoli simply because scouts don't see much in Masoli because of his accuracy issues and height. This may not be fair, but that's just how things work.

However, at this point, he's the clear frontrunner for 1st team Pac-10 QB.

dvieira > FACT

Tough for me to say fact but the statistics back it up. Masoli was 3rd in the conference last year in total offense, accounting for 205.2 yards per game. The two guys ahead of him, Mark Sanchez and Willie Tuitama, have moved on to try their hands at the NFL. Lyle Moevao from Oregon State was 4th in the list, one spot behind Masoli but he might not even be the starter for the Beavers in the fall. Kevin Craft at #5 won't be the starter for UCLA. Rudy Carpenter is gone to graduation and Tavita Pritchard was more than 50 yards per game behind Masoli on average. The closest competition for Masoli will be whomever starts for Oregon State. Both guys in Moevao and Canfield will be back for their senior years and the offense shouldn't be a question for the Beavs next year. Right now though, Masoli has a clear edge coming back over Moevao because of his injury/job status and Canfield because of consistency.

Poll

Jeremiah Masoli is the best quarterback in the Pac-10

Fact

356 votes

Fiction

86 votes

442 votes | Poll has closed

Inside the Numbers : Stanfurd

TwistNHook — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:00:05 -0000

Well, here it goes again. The nervous feelings. The pit of the stomach. A Cal fan never feels confident against Stanford. Especially not one who came of age during the Holmoecaust. And ESPECIALLY not one who just watched the last two Cal games. This has been an up and down season for Cal. Rough losses. Big victories. It's almost over and we (hopefully) have a soft landing at the end. Although Stanford has clearly shown some vivacity this season. They managed to do two things we couldn't, beat OSU and Arizona.

And score more than 3 points against USC. Let's take a look at the nuts and bolts of this Stanford team to see who we will be facing off against tomorrow.

Here it goes again......

Finally, we've been posting a lot recently. Check it: YouTube Thurday, Roundtable, B-Ball Recap; Arizona analysis; Marshawn v. Browns; Top25; Bowl Scenarios; OSU Thoughts; Pete Newell Memories; Big Game Memories

All numbers are from here.

TEAM STATISTICS	STAN	OPP
SCORING	299	292
Points Per Game	27.2	26.5
FIRST DOWNS	202	238
Rushing	111	87
Passing	72	127
Penalty	19	24
RUSHING YARDAGE	2272	1548
Yards gained rushing	2577	1920
Yards lost rushing	305	372
Rushing Attempts	453	389
Average Per Rush	5.0	4.0
Average Per Game	206.5	140.7
TDs Rushing	25	18
PASSING YARDAGE	1514	2619
Att-Comp-Int	248-139-12	374-236-6
Average Per Pass	6.1	7.0
Average Per Catch	10.9	11.1
Average Per Game	137.6	238.1
TDs Passing	10	15
TOTAL OFFENSE	3786	4167
Total Plays	701	763
Average Per Play	5.4	5.5
Average Per Game	344.2	378.8
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards	52-1172	57-1198
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards	21-222	13-71
INT RETURNS: #-Yards	6-102	12-119
KICK RETURN AVERAGE	22.5	21.0
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE	10.6	5.5
INT RETURN AVERAGE	17.0	9.9
FUMBLES-LOST	23-9	29-14
PENALTIES-Yards	76-689	80-684
Average Per Game	62.6	62.2
PUNTS-Yards	49-1980	47-1789
Average Per Punt	40.4	38.1
Net punt average	38.1	31.6
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game	29:35	30:25
3RD-DOWN Conversions	53/137	65/149
3rd-Down Pct	39%	44%
4TH-DOWN Conversions	7/12	6/10
4th-Down Pct	58%	60%
SACKS BY-Yards	33-237	17-118
MISC YARDS	-20	0
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED	37	35
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS	13-15	15-19
ON-SIDE KICKS	0-0	0-0
RED-ZONE SCORES	37-39 95%	40-50 80%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS	30-39 77%	25-50 50%
PAT-ATTEMPTS	34-35 97%	33-33 100%
ATTENDANCE	171292	350631
Games/Avg Per Game	5/34258	6/58438
Neutral Site Games		0/0

Ok, let's look at some general stats first. We saw teams like OSU and USC just racking up the points and yards and first downs against their opponents. Stanford has barely outscored their opponents. They have fewer first downs. Fewer yards. The breakdown of offense is indicative of their style of offense. Tons more rushing yards than passing yards. 700 more. Clearly a run first team, the very kind of team that Cal plays well. They've actually even run fewer plays than their opponents.

Their 3rd down % is worse than their opponents. I feel that, looking at these numbers, we can handle this team if we play to our ability.

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Gerhart, Toby	11	191	1069	36	1033	5.4	14	46	93.9
Kimble, Anthony	11	112	716	28	688	6.1	6	83	62.5
Loukas, Alex	9	36	223	37	186	5.2	1	29	20.7
Pritchard, Tavita	11	58	268	140	128	2.2	1	40	11.6

Well, here it is. The crux of Stanford. The key to Stanford. Toby Gerhart. The Quizz of Stanford. The Jeremiah Johnson of Stanford. The every USC RB on that fucking team of Stanford. He has almost 200 attempts on the year. He's averaging 5.4 a carry, which I believe is more than Quizz. Almost 100 yards a game. He's the biggest part of their offense. If we can shut him down, we will be able to control this game, I believe. Said the same thing about Quizz, though, and we saw what happened there.

He's backed up by Anthony Kimble, who I know little about to be honest. His numbers look better than Gerhart, but in a more limited role. More yards per carry but about a hundred fewer carries. The main focus is Gerhart. If Kimble and Gerhart are both destroying us, then it could be a LOOONG day.

Toby Gerhart via grfx.cstv.com

PASSING	GP	Effic	Cmp-Att-Int	Pct	Yards	TD	Long	Avg/G
Pritchard, Tavita	11	113.4	125-217-10	57.6	1327	9	61	120.6
Loukas, Alex	9	115.6	9-18-1	50.0	125	1	41	13.9
Forcier, Jason	4	63.1	5-13-1	38.5	62	0	26	15.5
Total..........	11	111.0	139-248-12	56.0	1514	10	61	137.6
Opponents......	11	132.0	236-374-6	63.1	2619	15	55	238.1

Tavita Pritchard. Wasn't he the shmuckzoid that beat us last year? The name angers me to this day! Luckily, it appears he isn't very good. 120 yards a game. 57% completion rate. 113 QB efficiency. The passing game clearly not the strength of the team. That's why stopping Gerhart is so important. It's like the Oregon game. We were able to contain their run game and force them to pass. They couldn't. Masoli got 44 yards. If we can do the same here, we can control the game.

If we can force Pritchard to beat us, this game will most likely be ours. Similar to Masoli, also, he can scramble. He rushed for almost 50 yards against USC. But passingwise, he was 9-21 for about 100 yards.

Tavita Pritchard vtai grfx.cstv.com

RECEIVING	GP	No.	Yards	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Whalen, Ryan	11	36	438	12.2	1	30	39.8
Baldwin, Doug	11	20	269	13.4	3	61	24.5
Gunder, Austin	11	15	123	8.2	1	18	11.2
Kimble, Anthony	11	12	88	7.3	1	15	8.0
Gerhart, Toby	11	11	100	9.1	0	21	9.1

As to be expected with the QB situation at Stanford, there are not great WR numbers. The leader, Whalen, averages less than 40 yards a game. Whalen leads the team with 36 receptions. I think there are like 4 WRs on Arizona with more than that. If these guys are beating us on Saturday, it means things have broken down. And bad.

Ryan Whalen via grfx.cstv.com

Ok, like GoDucks.com the Stanford website is freaking out. I've written the bottom portion out two times and it deletes it twice. Damn you, Stanford! You've rejected me yet again. So, I'll try to summarize my thoughts:

1. Arizona ran all over us, because we had to respect the pass so much. We were able to control Oregon, because we didn't need to respect their pass. On that spectrum, Stanford is far closer to Oregon. So, I think that this is the type of offense we can control. Gerhart will probably get his yards, similar to how JJ got his in Oregon. But hopefully, they will be empty yards. If Pritchard and Co. are passing all over us, it will be a LONG day. But I feel that given our defensive prowess, that will not happen. Hopefully!

2. On offense, I predict we see a LOT of running. Stanford just gave 300 yards each to USC and Oregon in their last 2 games. Now, of course, USC and Oregon are great running teams, no doubt about that. But we aren't exactly slouches. Apparently, Best is as healthy now as he has been in weeks. Plus, if our offensive line can play more like they did against Oregon than OSU and USC, I think we can give Riley the time he needs to make throws. On the road, they were abysmal. Hopefully, at home, it will be different.

Look, I get it. It's been a long season. An up and down season. Big wins. Crushing losses. And with our 2 crushing losses in a row there, you feel uncomfortable about the game. We all do. Plus, its Big Game. I was there in 2000 and 2001 when Stanford should have smacked us. But we held strong, losing at the way end (in OT in 2000). Throw the record books out in this one. But looking at the stats, looking at all the games, I feel reasonably confident that Cal can take this one. Our D is set up to stop a run-heavy offense as we face here. Our O is set up to run the ball a lot against weak run Ds as we face here. Let's get that axe back. Let's do this thing. Go Bears!