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OPPONENT PREVIEW: Stanford Cardinal

Dancing Football — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:43:30 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Stanford football success will be relying heavily on Luck this season. Andrew Luck that is. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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Record: 5-7 (2008)

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (3rd season, 9-15)

Offense: 26.3 PPG, 5.4 YPP (2008)

Stanford's offense was a pretty average unit altogether last season. The running game was the clear focus as the Cardinal racked up 490 rushing attempts against just 287 passing attempts. This year looks to be more of the same as Stanford will be armed with a freshman quarterback and a stud running back.

The biggest news out of Stanford this summer was Harbaugh's decision to start redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck over incumbent Tavita Pritchard. Luck was rated the #4 quarterback in the country coming out of high school one year ago, so it is clear that the head coach is taking the chance Luck's talent will overcome his inexperience and he will be more effective overall than Pritchard. Most who have watched Tavita Pritchard play over the last two seasons would agree that is a good bet. Luck will have Stanford's two returning receivers to throw to, Ryan Whalen (a former walk-on) and Doug Baldwin.

While the quarterback situation is very interesting, Stanford looks to make its biggest gains on the ground. The offensive line returns four players with starting experience as they look to open up big holes for star running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart surpassed the the Stanford single season rushing record last year and has set a lofty goal of 2,000 yards in 2009.

Defense: 27.4 PPGA, 5.6 YPPA (2008)

Not to be outdone by the averageness of the offense, the Stanford defense was also able to be middle of the pack last year. Stanford has an opportunity to be good on this side of the ball because their strength starts from the inside out.

The Cardinal defensive line may be the team's best overall unit. Senior defensive end Erik Lorig, a converted tight end, is regarded as the best of the bunch. The Cardinal staff seem to regard Erik as undersized, but at 6'4", 275, he appears to be just right for a Pac 10 defensive end. Lorig teams with 2008 freshman all-american Thomas Keiser to form a formidable defensive end combo.

The linebackers are led by senior Clinton Snyder. He is on a slew of preseason watch lists and is moving to the middle this year. In the defensive backfield, Lott Trophy candidate Bo McNally returns. He led the team in tackles and interceptions last year.

By far the most important player on either side of the ball is SAM linebacker Will Powers. Aside from the fact that he has the best possible surname in the entire world, he also started two games last season. What two games were they you ask? Cal and USC. It is clear that Harbaugh saves Powers for only the most important of situations. Will Powers is also among the smartest of the smarties down at Stanford, as he was named to the Pac 10 all academic team in 2008.

Special Teams:

Stanford was able to control field position as the punting unit led the Pac 10 with a 37.7 net punting average last season. David Green returns as Stanford's punter. It should also be known that SAM linebacker Will Powers plays on special teams, which is what undoubtedly led to the teams ability to cover punts so well a season ago.

Notre Dame transfer kicker Nate Whitaker is first on the depth chart after beating out Travis Golia and his younger brother, Eric Whitaker. Nate Whitaker missed his only field goal attempt while at Notre Dame and was 1 out 2 on extra point conversions. By using this very small sample size and projecting it out over the entire season, it can be determined that A) Stanford will not make a single field goal in 2009 and B) they will get just six points out of half their touchdowns. Head coach Harbaugh should be strongly advised to "go for it" as much as possible. (Except of course in situations where his fantastic punt team can do their work.)

Stanford in in trouble if:

The run game is limited. Harbaugh loves to pound that football. In the CougCenter podcast with Jon Wilner, who covers Stanford for the San Jose Mercury News, Wilner was quoted as saying Harbaugh wants to play "Michigan 1982 football." With the freshman quarterback Andrew Luck out there, it would seem that most teams are going to elect to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop Toby Gerhart. Stanford will be putting a lot of their potential bowl hopes this season on that run game, and if teams are able to stop it, they could be in trouble. The good news for them is that will be a very difficult thing to do.

Previewing the season: Stanford Cardinal

JConant — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:31:18 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Quarterback Andrew Luck (12) is looking to restore balance to Stanford's offensive attack.

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If you dig into the middle of the Pac-10 preseason rankings and look for a team who might beat Oregon on the road, the answer will often come up Stanford. It's premature to get too excited about what third-year coach Jim Harbaugh is doing on The Farm, but it would appear Stanford is a team that's moving on up. The evidence? The Cardinal won five games last season for only the second time in seven years. At 5-7, Stanford just could not come up with that one road upset, losing to Notre Dame, UCLA and Oregon each by seven points or less. That, and Stanford's recruiting is getting better with each year of Harbaugh's tenure.

At the very least, Stanford in 2008 established success in protecting their home turf. The Cardinal won four straight at Stanford Stadium, including wins over bowl-teams-to-be Oregon State and Arizona, before dropping a late-season game to USC, 45-23.

Will 2009 be the season that Stanford takes the next step forward?

The Cardinal return 17 starters from last year's team (9 offense, 8 defense). That makes Stanford one of the most veteran teams in the conference. This is a group with a lunch pail mentality, coached by a man who ESPN's Ted Miller referred to as "high energy, high optimism". Probably the only thing holding Stanford back from being a bowl team is a winning mentality, and you can bet Harbaugh's been working on that obstacle.

Oregon travels to Stanford on November 7, one week after the Halloween party with USC in Eugene. Stanford has the advantage of a bye heading into the game with the Ducks...this match-up representing the end of Stanford's "lighter" part of the schedule. After Oregon, the Cardinal play at USC, then host Cal and Notre Dame. Will Stanford face a Duck team battered by its early schedule, looking for late-season redemption? Or, will they face a Duck team basking in the national spotlight, looking to seal the deal down the stretch?

The answer to that question may very well dictate who the favorite is in this game. Whatever the case, the 2009 Oregon vs. Stanford game could end up being a pivotal point in the Pac-10 race. Let's look at the match-ups.

Oregon Offense vs. Stanford Defense

You won't get much of a read on the Stanford defense by talking to their D-coordinator, Ron Lynn. In a recent Q&A, Lynn threw around earth-shattering phrases like "making progress...not there yet...probably online with where we need to be...never satisfied." The soul of Stanford's defense is its front line, where three starters return. However, the Cardinal gave up 153 yards rushing per game last season, and that group will have to do better against a premier running game like Oregon's. The one new starter on the d-line will be DE Thomas Kaiser, a pass rush specialist who led the Cardinal with six sacks last season.

Stanford's linebackers will be experienced, and very likely improved. And, there is depth at the position. The secondary should be a strength. That group including safety Bo McNally, who led the 2008 team in tackles (76) and interceptions (4).

The word we hear over and over about Stanford is "tough". There's no question the Cardinal can pressure a QB. They ranked 3rd in the conference for sacks last season. The question is, for all its toughness, does Stanford's defense have the speed to defend Oregon's one-on-one-in-space running scheme? Probably not. But you can bet the Cardinal will be well prepared for the quirks of Oregon's spread following two weeks of preparation.

I still give Oregon the advantage here, though it's probably less of an advantage than it was last season when the Ducks struggled to find their rhythm offensively until very late in the game.

Oregon Defense vs. Stanford Offense

Toby Gerhart runs left. Toby Gerhart runs right. Wherever Toby runs defenders better tackle him at his ankles. Gerhart is a 235-pound bruiser who set aside pro baseball to come back for his senior year as a running back at Stanford. He put up 1,135 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Good stuff. Now, forget all that. Oregon's defense excels at stopping the run. Gerhardt will do some damage, but he can't beat Oregon on his own. The wild card to this game is Stanford's passing game, which will fall on the shoulders of redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck.

If Luck lives up to the hype - he did beat out senior Tavita Pritchard for the job - he could create something Stanford's offense hasn't had for a while: balance. Reports suggest Luck has all the tools. He's 6-4, sees the field well and has a strong, accurate arm. What he may lack is a quality group of receivers. Stanford returns its three top receivers from last year, but that's not necessarily saying a lot. Ted Miller's preseason ranking for the Cardinal receiving unit was no. 9 in the Pac-10. It's only fair to suggest that ranking might be more a reflection of Stanford's prior passing woes than what Luck might achieve this season. Whatever the case, those receivers have a lot to prove.

For Will Tukuafu, a 6-4, 235-pound pocket passer must sound like a hot, juicy steak or maybe lettuce wraps from P.F. Chang's. If Luck delivers an effective passing attack - we'll certainly know by Nov. 7 - Oregon may have to dial up the pressure. Expect the Ducks to bring some blitzes and varied defensive looks to force the inexperienced Luck out of his comfort zone. It's the kind of pressure we've heard both Nick Aliotti and d-line coach Jerry Azzinaro talk about his fall. Time will tell if Oregon can bring the pressure effectively.

I this case, I can't call an advantage one way or the other. Luck is simply an unknown. If he's on and a better-than-average Stanford offensive line can protect him, this could be a shoot-out.

Special Teams

Both teams appear to have potential field goal issues, though Oregon's Morgan Flint is mostly reliable inside 40 yards. Stanford will have a new kicker this season, probably Nate Whitaker, a transfer from Notre Dame. David Green will handle the punts again this year for the Cardinal. He averaged 39.9 yards a punt as a sophomore in 2008. Stanford finished in the upper half of the Pac-10 for both punt and kick returns, and those units are largely intact. Still, Oregon's overall team speed and depth at linebacker probably give the Ducks a slight edge in special teams.

Conclusion

Expect a battle from a Stanford team which probably is going bowling if they can win one of their final four games. With an opportunity to rest and heal up while Oregon is pounding it out with USC, Stanford undoubtedly will see their game versus the Ducks as the best opportunity to get that win. Unless their early season has gone horribly wrong, the Cardinal will be hungry.

There also could be plenty of motivation for Oregon. If the Ducks are coming off a win over USC (yes, that's a big IF), it's full throttle to the finish. Expect a very physical contest in which neither team pulls away and a margin of victory of a touchdown or less. Oregon has the edge in talent and team speed on both sides of the ball. Still, it will take a huge effort to get past Stanford on the road if they're sniffing their first bowl game since the 2001 Seattle Bowl.

A Post-Spring Look At: Stanford

Jake Bertalotto — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:46:59 -0000

Toby Gerhart returns as Stanford's leading rusher from 2008. (via Lance Iversen/ The Chronicle)

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(Note: Many of the links below go to SB Nation Player Pages)

Oregon State will host Stanford at Reser Stadium on October 10th. Last year, the Beavers opened their season with Stanford and lost 28-36.

Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh seemingly summed up Stanford's offensive scheme when he sat down with a local talk show a few weeks ago.

"Number-7 is our signature guy. We are going to get him the ball!"

Toby Gerhart, who wasn't selected in this month's MLB draft, will return to Stanford for his senior year. The two sport star, who made a trip to Omaha with the baseball team last year, is enjoying an extended summer which is allowing him to prepare more for football season. Last year, Gerhart rushed for 1,136 yards and 15 touchdowns. When asked by the Examiner how many yards he would rush for this year, Gerhart did not pause. "2,000 yards."

"I love talking about Toby Gerhart" Harbaugh told a Comcast SportsNet crew. "He has great balance, vision and you have to tackle him down around the legs because if you go high, he'll bounce off of you and he has the speed to break away."

Gerhart will have a good chance to reach his goal behind an experienced line that includes senior tackles Matt Kopa and Chris Marinelli.

Said Harbaugh: "We will have a very physical offensive line, much improved wide receivers and tight ends and fullback Owen Marecic is a special, special player"

Marecic, the former Jesuit High star, has been a key piece of Stanford's blocking schemes over the last two years, but figures to increase his carries this year to take some of the load off of Gerhart.

As for other comments from the coach, he again named Andrew Luck the starting quarterback for Stanford although the competition with Tavita Pritchard will go on. "It is a fluid situation. Andrew Luck is our starter out of spring ball, but Pritchard has 19 career starts and some big wins like against USC. He will compete."

More on Luck: "He had a very good spring game, but it was not just the practice game, he did that well all spring."

Luck completed 18 of 25 passes for 352 yards and five touchdowns to lead the White team to a 42-17 victory over the Cardinal in the annual Cardinal and White Spring Game. He tossed touchdown passes of 41, 16, 20, 4 and 32 yards. Two of the touchdown passes went to Richard Sherman, who also shined on defense for the White team, finishing with eight tackles

2010 NFL Draft rankings: Strong safeties

Mocking Dan — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:18:02 -0000

Today starts the unveiling of the 2010 NFL Draft rankings. Here's how it's going to work. Because juniors won't declare for quite some time, the junior and senior rankings will be separated.

And because most of 2008 was spent watching players who would be in the draft, some of these won't be huge lists. For instance, the strong safety rankings feature six seniors and four juniors. Conversely, the defensive end senior rankings will have 20 seniors listed. After all the positional rankings are revealed, a top 200 will be put out.

Find the strong safety rankings here and feel free to talk about them and add suggestions in this thread.

Inside the Numbers : Stanfurd

TwistNHook — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:00:05 -0000

Well, here it goes again. The nervous feelings. The pit of the stomach. A Cal fan never feels confident against Stanford. Especially not one who came of age during the Holmoecaust. And ESPECIALLY not one who just watched the last two Cal games. This has been an up and down season for Cal. Rough losses. Big victories. It's almost over and we (hopefully) have a soft landing at the end. Although Stanford has clearly shown some vivacity this season. They managed to do two things we couldn't, beat OSU and Arizona.

And score more than 3 points against USC. Let's take a look at the nuts and bolts of this Stanford team to see who we will be facing off against tomorrow.

Here it goes again......

Finally, we've been posting a lot recently. Check it: YouTube Thurday, Roundtable, B-Ball Recap; Arizona analysis; Marshawn v. Browns; Top25; Bowl Scenarios; OSU Thoughts; Pete Newell Memories; Big Game Memories

All numbers are from here.

TEAM STATISTICS	STAN	OPP
SCORING	299	292
Points Per Game	27.2	26.5
FIRST DOWNS	202	238
Rushing	111	87
Passing	72	127
Penalty	19	24
RUSHING YARDAGE	2272	1548
Yards gained rushing	2577	1920
Yards lost rushing	305	372
Rushing Attempts	453	389
Average Per Rush	5.0	4.0
Average Per Game	206.5	140.7
TDs Rushing	25	18
PASSING YARDAGE	1514	2619
Att-Comp-Int	248-139-12	374-236-6
Average Per Pass	6.1	7.0
Average Per Catch	10.9	11.1
Average Per Game	137.6	238.1
TDs Passing	10	15
TOTAL OFFENSE	3786	4167
Total Plays	701	763
Average Per Play	5.4	5.5
Average Per Game	344.2	378.8
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards	52-1172	57-1198
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards	21-222	13-71
INT RETURNS: #-Yards	6-102	12-119
KICK RETURN AVERAGE	22.5	21.0
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE	10.6	5.5
INT RETURN AVERAGE	17.0	9.9
FUMBLES-LOST	23-9	29-14
PENALTIES-Yards	76-689	80-684
Average Per Game	62.6	62.2
PUNTS-Yards	49-1980	47-1789
Average Per Punt	40.4	38.1
Net punt average	38.1	31.6
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game	29:35	30:25
3RD-DOWN Conversions	53/137	65/149
3rd-Down Pct	39%	44%
4TH-DOWN Conversions	7/12	6/10
4th-Down Pct	58%	60%
SACKS BY-Yards	33-237	17-118
MISC YARDS	-20	0
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED	37	35
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS	13-15	15-19
ON-SIDE KICKS	0-0	0-0
RED-ZONE SCORES	37-39 95%	40-50 80%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS	30-39 77%	25-50 50%
PAT-ATTEMPTS	34-35 97%	33-33 100%
ATTENDANCE	171292	350631
Games/Avg Per Game	5/34258	6/58438
Neutral Site Games		0/0

Ok, let's look at some general stats first. We saw teams like OSU and USC just racking up the points and yards and first downs against their opponents. Stanford has barely outscored their opponents. They have fewer first downs. Fewer yards. The breakdown of offense is indicative of their style of offense. Tons more rushing yards than passing yards. 700 more. Clearly a run first team, the very kind of team that Cal plays well. They've actually even run fewer plays than their opponents.

Their 3rd down % is worse than their opponents. I feel that, looking at these numbers, we can handle this team if we play to our ability.

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Gerhart, Toby	11	191	1069	36	1033	5.4	14	46	93.9
Kimble, Anthony	11	112	716	28	688	6.1	6	83	62.5
Loukas, Alex	9	36	223	37	186	5.2	1	29	20.7
Pritchard, Tavita	11	58	268	140	128	2.2	1	40	11.6

Well, here it is. The crux of Stanford. The key to Stanford. Toby Gerhart. The Quizz of Stanford. The Jeremiah Johnson of Stanford. The every USC RB on that fucking team of Stanford. He has almost 200 attempts on the year. He's averaging 5.4 a carry, which I believe is more than Quizz. Almost 100 yards a game. He's the biggest part of their offense. If we can shut him down, we will be able to control this game, I believe. Said the same thing about Quizz, though, and we saw what happened there.

He's backed up by Anthony Kimble, who I know little about to be honest. His numbers look better than Gerhart, but in a more limited role. More yards per carry but about a hundred fewer carries. The main focus is Gerhart. If Kimble and Gerhart are both destroying us, then it could be a LOOONG day.

Toby Gerhart via grfx.cstv.com

PASSING	GP	Effic	Cmp-Att-Int	Pct	Yards	TD	Long	Avg/G
Pritchard, Tavita	11	113.4	125-217-10	57.6	1327	9	61	120.6
Loukas, Alex	9	115.6	9-18-1	50.0	125	1	41	13.9
Forcier, Jason	4	63.1	5-13-1	38.5	62	0	26	15.5
Total..........	11	111.0	139-248-12	56.0	1514	10	61	137.6
Opponents......	11	132.0	236-374-6	63.1	2619	15	55	238.1

Tavita Pritchard. Wasn't he the shmuckzoid that beat us last year? The name angers me to this day! Luckily, it appears he isn't very good. 120 yards a game. 57% completion rate. 113 QB efficiency. The passing game clearly not the strength of the team. That's why stopping Gerhart is so important. It's like the Oregon game. We were able to contain their run game and force them to pass. They couldn't. Masoli got 44 yards. If we can do the same here, we can control the game.

If we can force Pritchard to beat us, this game will most likely be ours. Similar to Masoli, also, he can scramble. He rushed for almost 50 yards against USC. But passingwise, he was 9-21 for about 100 yards.

Tavita Pritchard vtai grfx.cstv.com

RECEIVING	GP	No.	Yards	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Whalen, Ryan	11	36	438	12.2	1	30	39.8
Baldwin, Doug	11	20	269	13.4	3	61	24.5
Gunder, Austin	11	15	123	8.2	1	18	11.2
Kimble, Anthony	11	12	88	7.3	1	15	8.0
Gerhart, Toby	11	11	100	9.1	0	21	9.1

As to be expected with the QB situation at Stanford, there are not great WR numbers. The leader, Whalen, averages less than 40 yards a game. Whalen leads the team with 36 receptions. I think there are like 4 WRs on Arizona with more than that. If these guys are beating us on Saturday, it means things have broken down. And bad.

Ryan Whalen via grfx.cstv.com

Ok, like GoDucks.com the Stanford website is freaking out. I've written the bottom portion out two times and it deletes it twice. Damn you, Stanford! You've rejected me yet again. So, I'll try to summarize my thoughts:

1. Arizona ran all over us, because we had to respect the pass so much. We were able to control Oregon, because we didn't need to respect their pass. On that spectrum, Stanford is far closer to Oregon. So, I think that this is the type of offense we can control. Gerhart will probably get his yards, similar to how JJ got his in Oregon. But hopefully, they will be empty yards. If Pritchard and Co. are passing all over us, it will be a LONG day. But I feel that given our defensive prowess, that will not happen. Hopefully!

2. On offense, I predict we see a LOT of running. Stanford just gave 300 yards each to USC and Oregon in their last 2 games. Now, of course, USC and Oregon are great running teams, no doubt about that. But we aren't exactly slouches. Apparently, Best is as healthy now as he has been in weeks. Plus, if our offensive line can play more like they did against Oregon than OSU and USC, I think we can give Riley the time he needs to make throws. On the road, they were abysmal. Hopefully, at home, it will be different.

Look, I get it. It's been a long season. An up and down season. Big wins. Crushing losses. And with our 2 crushing losses in a row there, you feel uncomfortable about the game. We all do. Plus, its Big Game. I was there in 2000 and 2001 when Stanford should have smacked us. But we held strong, losing at the way end (in OT in 2000). Throw the record books out in this one. But looking at the stats, looking at all the games, I feel reasonably confident that Cal can take this one. Our D is set up to stop a run-heavy offense as we face here. Our O is set up to run the ball a lot against weak run Ds as we face here. Let's get that axe back. Let's do this thing. Go Bears!