SB Nation - Ryan Whalen

Was Jeff Tedford Too Passive? Was Jim Harbaugh Too Aggressive?

Avinash — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:47:35 -0000

Who's a better head coach, Jim Harbaugh or this 5th grader?

There've been a lot of hand-wringing about the playcalling by the coaches by Cal fans, about how Jeff Tedford nearly gagged away the Big Game with ultra-conservative playcalls that would've made Pat Robertson shudder. It could certainly be argued that taking one or two extra risks would've ended the game instead of leaving the door at open for the Furd to climb back into it

What was lost in the shuffle though was the absolute badness of Jim Harbaugh's aggressive calls. Unlike Tedford's calls, where there's some debate as to whether they were prudent or imprudent, there's not much debate about Harbaugh's playcalls.

Twist and I discuss the following calls after the jump.

1) Tedford choosing to punt on 4th and short rather than going for it--next drive led to a quick Furd TD to cut the lead to 3; we both agree it was an ok call, although we wish

2) Harbaugh going for it on 4th and 8 deep in his own territory--led to a Cal FG that made it a touchdown game; we both agree the call was stupid.

3) Tedford choosing to kneel and center the ball on 3rd and goal--prevented a chance for a Cal TD, settled for the FG; we both agree the call was a little conservative, but again had merit and did make the Furd's chances of winning much longer.

4) Harbaugh passing the ball on 1st and 2nd down with Gerhart available--led to the game-clinching interception. As this 5th grader above us says, very questionable.

Twist: These calls were certainly controversial. To fully understand the situation, let's try to look at them in context at the time they were made. I wanted to take a closer look at the 4th and 1 call.

Here's the thing. If it was up to me, I probably woulda gone for it. But I'm also the person who does fake punts in Madden on 2nd down and has a "No Kicking" policy, too. I'm an imbecile. I realize that here in the blogosphere, we are supposed to have extreme opinions that create a lively, if oftimes redick discussion and, most importantly, hits galore. That's never really been my style, per se. Like I said, with my limited knowledge, I probably would have gone for it, but instead of talking about what I would have done or even what one *should* have done, what I want to do was take a closer and clearer look at the situation that Tedford faced. Try to get a better understanding at the decision that Tedford faced at that time, instead of after the game or days later.

I fear that there has been a lot of miscommunication based on faulty remembrances about Tedford's decision. Personally, I have seen people say things like:

"Tedford shoulda gone for it to ice the game."
"Tedford shoulda gone for it, because we couldn't be stopped."
"Tedford shoulda gone for it, because after they punted, Stanford was right back there just a few plays later."

via calbearsonline.com

Based on the ESPN Play By Play, here is the drive.

California at 12:47		CAL	STAN
1st and 10 at CAL 27	Shane Vereen rush for 4 yards to the Cal 31.	31	21
2nd and 6 at CAL 31	Shane Vereen rush for 5 yards to the Cal 36.
3rd and 1 at CAL 36	Timeout CALIFORNIA, clock 11:07.
3rd and 1 at CAL 36	Kevin Riley rush for 1 yard to the Cal 37 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at CAL 37	Shane Vereen rush for 3 yards to the Cal 40.
2nd and 7 at CAL 40	Shane Vereen rush for 6 yards to the Cal 46.
3rd and 1 at CAL 46	Kevin Riley rush for no gain to the Cal 46.
4th and 1 at CAL 46	Bryan Anger punt for 41 yards, fair catch by Michael Spanos at the Stanf 13.
DRIVE TOTALS: Cal drive: 6 plays 19 yards, 03:34 Cal PUNT

The first misconception that I've seen is that this play happened much later in the game. However, this drive starts with nearly 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. It ends with a little over 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The play, in specific, took place with probably about 10 minutes left in the 4th, although it is slightly unclear to me exactly when from this play by play. So, to me, the concept that Tedford could have "iced" the game here seems laughable. You can't ice a game with 9-10 minutes left. Period.

I realize that the counter argument is that if Cal successfully continues the drive, they can a)take more time off the clock and b)go up either 34-21 or even 39-21! Certainly, 39-21 with 9 or fewer minutes left in the 4th does seem unbeatable, no matter how much Cal Cal is. And Cal is fairly Cal, let's not forget that.

But that seems to assume a lot. If Cal converts here, they are at their own 47 yard line. Not Stanford's 22 or something like that. They still have 53 more yards to go to hit pay dirt. So, to me, attempting and perhaps even successfully converting the 4th down conversion does not an iced game make. So, hopefully, looking at the play by play can clear up that conception.

The second thought I've seen out there is that Cal shoulda gone for it, because they've been doing really well in the running game and could probably have just pounded it home there. That is a fair point to me. We had been performing really well in the running game.

But we had also been performing really well on defense. After Stanford jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead in the early part of the 1st quarter, Cal's D had held Stanford to merely 1 Touchdown since. If my math is accurate, Stanford had gained 110 total yards between scoring their 2nd TD with about 5 minutes left in the 1st quarter and the play call in question here. 69 of those yards came on their sole TD drive in the 3rd quarter. Basically, that's roughly 38 minutes of game time, 2+ quarters, with a grand total of 110 yards given up by the Cal D.

Any way you cut that, that is incredibly impressive. Luck goes 4-14, which is......not good. Just the drive before, Stanford had showed wild desperation, throwing long on its first 2 passes and going 3 and out quickly and quietly. So, the concept of forcing them to drive 80 yards to pay dirt after holding them down for so long doesn't seem so bad to me. Tedford was banking on his defense being able to hold Stanford down at that point.

via calbearsonline.com

Avi: CBKWit mentioned in the podcast he disagreed with this decision more than the 3rd down kneeldown one (which we're building up to). I'd say this call was very similar to the Belichick playcall (2 minutes, up a score at your own 30 seems about the equivalent as being up 10 points at midfield). Unlike the Patriots coach, Tedford chose not to take the risky decision and trust his defense, which up to this point had shut them down.

Now as Smart Football and Advanced NFL stats pointed out, going for it on 4th down at this range isn't that bad a call. The stats seem to favor going for it--at that range, the success rate is around 75-80%. However, there's still a 20-25% chance that it fails, and given how hard we've been pushing Vereen, and the fact that we couldn't pick up 1 yard on a 3rd and short on a quarterback sneak (which is usually a sure thing), I can see that Tedford would be heistant to go for it and hand the Cardinal any momentum. As Bill Simmons said, statistics can only tell you so much; you have to assess the situation too.

The referees had been handing out questionable spots throughout that drive, and the possibility you get screwed again always factors in.
You're on the road (yeah I know, the least intimidating road stadium in the world, but it's still the road) trying to protect an upset bid.
The crowd had been dead most of the game, but give them the first down and there's a chance you rev them up for the remainder of the 4th quarter.
You've been holding Furd's offense in check the entire game.
You don't want to hand the Cardinal a short field and give them a quick chance to cut the lead to a one score game.

Twist: Of course, I would be remiss if I did not point out that the Cal D was not able to hold Stanford down at that point. I have seen many people claim that Stanford was right back at the 50 just a few plays later. It wasn't actually even just a few plays later. It was merely one, the big 37 yard play where Luck hit Owusu. Certainly, I'm MUCH happier that Stanford hit this 37 yard pass from their own 13 as compared to Cal's 46.

Stanford at 9:03		CAL	STAN
1st and 10 at STAN 13	Andrew Luck pass complete to Chris Owusu for 37 yards to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down.	31	21
1st and 10 at STAN 50	Andrew Luck pass complete to Chris Owusu for 12 yards to the Cal 38 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at CAL 38	Andrew Luck pass complete to Ryan Whalen for 12 yards to the Cal 26 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at CAL 26	Andrew Luck pass incomplete to Ryan Whalen.
2nd and 10 at CAL 26	Toby Gerhart rush for 21 yards to the Cal 5 for a 1ST down.
1st and Goal at CAL 5	Toby Gerhart rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.	31	27
	Nate Whitaker extra point GOOD.	31	28
	Nate Whitaker kickoff for 66 yards returned by Jeremy Ross for 24 yards to the Cal 28.
DRIVE TOTALS: Stanf drive: 6 plays 87 yards, 01:44 Stanf TD

In 1:44, they travel nearly the length of the field, gaining over 2/3rds of the yards they have gained in the last 38 minutes of the game. Andrew Luck is 3-4 and Gerhart averages 13 yards a carry (kind of a skewed stat there). Certainly frustrating after it looked like Cal might gone for it on 4th and taken more time off the clock and even gotten up by 18 points!

Was the Stanford O hyped by the Stanford D stopping Cal on 3rd down? I don't know. But they woulda been, it follows, even more inspired if Stanford stopped Cal on 4th down. And only had 47 yards to go instead of 87.

Yes, it is a lot of fun to imagine Cal performing the best case scenarios. And it is frustrating to compare the reality of the situation with what could have been. It's also important to look at the worst case scenarios that Tedford was attempting to avoid and compare those to what might have been. Here, my frustrations lie less with the call, although I am not sure I necessarily agree with it, and more with the fact that the Cal D allowed the Stanford O to go 87 yards in 6 plays and 1:44.

I think people are viewing the call as a negative call, because of the negative result (the following Stanford TD) that did not have much to do with that call per se. And if the Cal D had stopped the Stanford O on the next drive, nobody would have much discussed the 4th down punt. Although, certainly if the 4th down attempt had failed and Stanford had quickly scored and gone on to win, people would have lambasted Tedford for that odd 4th down call, claiming the D was playing great and it woulda been better to just trap Stanford deep in their own territory.

Hopefully, this has cleared up the situation and will allow us to look at the decision making process with the facts that existed AT THE TIME OF THE CALL as compared to the 20/20 hindsight and misconceptions that I think many are currently laboring under. Again, the idiot that I am, I probably woulda gone for it there, but, being the risk adverse person that I am, think I have a grasp of how Tedford's decision making process went.

via calbearsonline.com

Avi: Indeed, that's the outcome bias working--we're judging Tedford for decisions made based on what happened afterwards as opposed to the value of the decision at the time it was made. It's human, but it's erroneous to blame Tedford for this decision because the Furd happened to score.

Twist: Let's go one drive before that:

Stanford at 4:27		CAL	STAN
1st and 10 at STAN 21	Andrew Luck pass incomplete to Coby Fleener.	31	28
2nd and 10 at STAN 21	Toby Gerhart rush for 2 yards to the Stanf 23.
3rd and 8 at STAN 23	Andrew Luck pass incomplete to Chris Owusu.
4th and 8 at STAN 23	Andrew Luck pass incomplete to Jim Dray.
DRIVE TOTALS: Stanf drive: 4 plays 2 yards, 00:50 Stanf DOWNS

This is the drive preceding. Luck not looking so good on there. But the key portion here is the 4th down play. Stanford is on its own 23. Roughly 4 minutes and change left. All 3 time outs. In the previous two Cal drives, we had gone 12 plays for a total of 35 yards. Most of which came on one 18 yard pass completion. Two punts. Clearly, the momentum had shifted back to Stanford at this point. So, if you punt and can hold Cal, you got another great shot. Certainly, if Tedford was in this situation, he would have punted. But Harbaugh decided to go for it. On 4th and 8. On his own 23. With 3 time outs and 4 minutes left in a 3 point game.

Avi: Unlike the 4th and inches, which you could consider either good or bad, this was a truly atrocious call. There's a small chance Luck succeeds here and scrambles for the first down, but only the remotest possibility that he throws for one (9 for 26 on the game up to this throw). It's 4th and long too, so the odds of a run are totally minimal, leaving the defense likely to play mainly the pass, and maybe a Luck scramble.

More importantly, YOU ARE HANDING CAL POINTS IF YOU FAIL. A field goal means you now need to drive down the field, likely without the majority of your timeouts. A touchdown ends the game. If Tedford had made a decision like this I'd be tearing my hair out. You punt the football and trust your defense, which has stopped the Bears from scoring the last two times (with some home town reffing helping them out, but whatever). Get the ball back and all you need to do is drive for a field goal, which given Furd's quick strike offense is totally feasible.

Imagine if the Furd had gotten to the red zone down 3 instead of down 6--think that the playcalling changes bigtime for Harbaugh? I feel that way.

Some Cal fans out there might prefer Harbaugh's aggressiveness because it's manly. It's ballsy. It sticks it to other opponents, it makes you feel awesome if it succeeds, it reinforces all the cliches of a football coach. It's just more social biases at work--we feel better because he played to win rather than playing not to lose. It doesn't excuse the fact that it's a bad decision the same way Les Miles's decision to dial up a throw to the end zone with 7 seconds left in field goal range. Ballsy, but literally fucking stupid.

Twist: And his ultra-aggressiveness does not pay off. Of course, when Stanford turned the ball over on downs, Cal fans in my section and, assuredly, other sections started to believe that the game was done. Cal would punch it in, make it a 2 score game with a minute or so left and we all go home happy.

Then, this happened:

via calbearsonline.com

California at 3:32		CAL	STAN
1st and 10 at STAN 23	Shane Vereen rush for 12 yards to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST down.	31	28
1st and 10 at STAN 11	Shane Vereen rush for no gain to the Stanf 11.
2nd and 10 at STAN 11	Timeout STANFORD, clock 02:55.
2nd and 10 at STAN 11	Shane Vereen rush for 2 yards to the Stanf 9.
3rd and 8 at STAN 9	Timeout STANFORD, clock 02:48.
3rd and 8 at STAN 9	Kevin Riley rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 11.
4th and 10 at STAN 11	Timeout STANFORD, clock 02:46.
4th and 10 at STAN 11	Vince D'Amato 28 yard field goal GOOD.	34	28
	Giorgio Tavecchio kickoff for 42 yards returned by Josh Catron for 14 yards to the Stanf 42.
DRIVE TOTALS: Cal drive: 5 plays 12 yards, 00:46 Cal FG

Let's take a deeper look here. Vereen starts off with a killer rush. However, his next two attempts net 2 total yards. Cal does not in any way attempt anything close to a pass in this situation.

Many people were greatly concerned about this lack of killer instinct. Maybe it is a lack of killer instinct, I don't know. But, in my belief, the downside of a pass attempt is FAR greater than the downside of any rush attempt. Forcing Stanford to use all 3 time outs limits Stanford's offensive playcalling on their next drive.

I know what you are saying here. But if we score, their next drive don't matter. A salient point. Here, Tedford is going for the least risky plan. Especially considering that they IN NO WAY trust Riley in the red zone. We saw it in the Arizona game and we saw it again in the Stanford game. After Riley throwing 3 picks in the red zone and fumbling once there also, once they get near the goal line, they would rather take 3 then risk a pick. Considering that Vereen had had an amazing day to that point, they put it into the hands of the man they trust the most. I believe they even used a WildBear or two, to try to mix it up. This is a point lost in all the "TAKE A SHOT AT THE END ZONE!" lines. The upsides of the plays called seem limited not because they have low upsides, but, because they just plain didn't work.

So, Cal decides to drain Stanford of time outs, force them to have to go the length of the field in roughly 2 minutes with no time outs. To ensure that, he decides to center the ball. At the close range, centering the ball becomes epically more important. The angles are much harsher the closer in you go. And Cal has certainly had its fair share of kicking troubles this year. So, I see no problem with this play.

IMG_9968 (via Monica's Dad)

Avi: There's also the matter of Riley's red zone struggles. This season, he's only completed 45% of his passes in the red zone. Worse, he's thrown three interceptions, one of which destroyed early momentum against USC, another which could've cost us the Arizona upset (the other was earlier in the Big Game and was not Riley's fault). Although he threw a TD early in the 4th quarter, it wasn't an easy throw. Plus with a 3rd and goal at the 8, Furd's defense will probably play hard to guard the end zone on a pass.

Imagine if the Bears had thrown an incompletion that stopped the clock and left the Cardinal with one timeout, or worse, thrown a pick with the Cardinal likely playing the run. You'd probably feel much worse waking up Sunday morning.

No, the only decision here is to run the football a la Arizona, preferrably up the middle to center the ball and hope that you find the crease to the end zone. I find it quizzical that in this situation (like on 4th and inches) you don't trust Vereen to secure the ball, considering he's not fumbled all game long. I would've liked to see a run, but I guess when they got nothing on the first two runs they figured Vereen was spent and decided not to get too fancy at the end and do something totally mind-blowing (and there've been plenty of mind-blowing finishes in college football before).

Leave the Cardinal with no timeouts and they have no choice now; score a touchdown or lose the game. You're limiting Harbaugh's options, and that might've helped force the last questionable decision of the game.

Twist: Of course, after hitting the field goal and kicking off, Stanford then proceeds to march the length of the field VERY quickly.

Stanford at 2:42		CAL	STAN
1st and 10 at STAN 42	Andrew Luck rush for 12 yards to the Cal 46 for a 1ST down.	34	28
1st and 10 at CAL 46	Andrew Luck rush for 4 yards to the Cal 42.
2nd and 6 at CAL 42	Andrew Luck pass complete to Toby Gerhart for 29 yards to the Cal 13 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at CAL 13	Andrew Luck pass incomplete to Coby Fleener.
2nd and 10 at CAL 13	Andrew Luck pass intercepted by Michael Mohamed at the Cal 3, returned for 6 yards to the Cal 9.
DRIVE TOTALS: Stanf drive: 5 plays 45 yards, 01:06 Stanf INT

The bulk of the drive is the one pass to Gerhart for about 30 yards. A frightening moment for any Cal fan. But one that we might have seen more of if Cal had attempted a pass and failed. Luck had looked terrible all day, going 10-30. Gerhart had certainly killed us, but Tedford's plan to drain Stanford of all 3 of its timeouts had limited Stanford's ability to use Gerhart. When you have the ball at Cal's 13, you want to go to your stud RB first, right? He averaged 6.8 yards on the day per carry. Give it to him twice and bam, you score the potential game-winning TD. But with no time outs, Stanford could NOT do that. They had to throw throw throw. And when you throw throw throw, what happens? Well, just the series before, you have 3 incompletes and fail. Here, Luck threw another incomplete and then a pick to the Prophet.

As a final thought, I know Cal fans love ballsy aggressiveness. I get that. They want to see stirring sacks and long bombs (although once you start at the 23, you can't really long bomb). But there are considerations other than proximity to goal line that come into effect here when choosing a play.

Tedford didn't necessarily see it as a difference between a 38-28 game and a 34-28 game, like many fans do. He saw it as a difference between a 34 (maybe)-28 game where Stanford had 1-3 time outs and roughly 3:30 left and a 34 (for sure)-28 game where Stanford had 2:42 and 0 time outs left. When viewed from that prism, I, the risk adverse person that I am, have to agree with the game management here. Sure, the otherworldy talent of Toby Gerhart nearly gave us all heart attacks. But when you have a limited playbook and have to rush your plays because of no time outs, bad things happen.

And a bad thing did happen. To Stanford! Especially compared to if Stanford had punted on the 23, stopped Cal, driven 30+ yards and hit a field goal to tie the game. This may be controversial, but I fully support Tedford's calls here.

Avi: I was baffled by Harbaugh's playcalling on 1st and 2nd down in the red zone. You have two minutes on the clock, and probably five-six plays to go. At this point, all you can do is score (turning the ball over ends the game), so why not run the football? If you score a touchdown immediately, you leave TWO MINUTES on the clock for Riley and the Bears to march downfield on a pass defense he's torched all game long.

More importantly, Andrew Luck is even worse with his accuracy in the red zone than Riley (after the Big Game, he's barely at 40%). Whether it's due to his receivers dropping passes or him making bad decisions. Although Cal held him down for much of the game, it was clear to almost any Cal fans we were more terrified of Gerhart running it up on us than Luck throwing it on us.

To be honest, I'm not sure Harbaugh should've even called that final timeout. You let Cal run the clock down to two minutes, keep that timeout in your back pocket, and in case you get to the goal-line (Furd's been a quick-hitting team all year, and their last drive only took 90 seconds), you have it ready so you can still factor Gerhart's running ability into the equation.

I hate to say it, but I feel the perfect college football coach choked a little under the spotlight. Just a little. (Actually, what the hell am I saying, I LOVE to say it.)

via calbearsonline.com

Who cares about us though, what were your thoughts on these calls?

Poll

How many of the playcalling decisions above do you agree with?

All four of them

22 votes

Three of them

27 votes

Two of them

60 votes

One of them

52 votes

None of them

22 votes

183 votes | Poll has closed

BN Gameday Roundup: Bruins Set For Stanford's Power Attack?

Nestor — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 16:02:43 -0000

Just few more hours to go till our kickoff. I think we have done a pretty good job of exhausting the various story lines around this game in last two weeks. The game day stories both from the LA and Bay Area newspapers don't really offer up anything new this morning. Still might as well go through them before we immerse ourselves into college football Saturday. The main storyline around today's game will obviously be Gergart and Stanford's offense showdown against the UCLA defense. At the same time an anxious Bruin Nation is going to hold its collective breath to see how Craft led UCLA offense can manage the game on the road.

We will start with the key matchup of the day which will be headline by Gerhart and Reggie Carter. The emotional leader of the Bruin defense and his team-mates seem fired up and ready to go:

"Physical, physical, physical," Carter said. "I've been waiting for a game like this again. Playing Tennessee was great, but then Kansas State came in and started hitting us with that crazy spread stuff.

"Stanford plays old-fashioned, downhill football. They have a downhill back, and an aggressive offensive line. I'm looking forward to this game.

"I'm not going to trash talk. They say they're physical. I'm not going to back down. I'm going to be ready and waiting for them." [...]

The Bruins are ranked ninth nationally against the run. Stanford, with 235-pound Toby Gerhart averaging 129 yards rushing behind a line that averages 297 pounds, is 11th nationally in rushing offense. [...]

"We know these guys are runners," said UCLA defensive end Korey Bosworth. "That's what they say, their bread and butter is that power play. As far as I can tell, we're not too bad against the run. When we get a team that runs the ball, I really look forward to it."

Neheisel and co will be looking to Carter and Bosworth to manage the point of Stanford attack:

"You better put on your big-boy pads," UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel said. "They come at you.

"We've been fairly stout in the early part of the season but this is going to be the biggest test thus far. We've got to be able to manage the point of attack. It's going to be a great challenge for our guys in the front seven."

Offensively, Stanford's point of attack will be Gerhart, who ran for a career-high 200 yards in last week's victory over Washington.

Gerhart isn't the kind of running back who is going to fake out would-be defenders with side-to-side moves. If you're in his way, he'll run right over you. It's a technique that resulted in 1,136 yards and 5.4 yards per carry in 2008.

However, Bruin defense will have more than Gerhart to worry about. Stanford has a solid QB in Andrew Luck who has done a pretty good job of managing the game as a red shirt freshman. Although Harbaugh hasn't depended on Luck's arm, his production has been extremely efficent as he has complete 50 out of 83 passes with 4 touchdowns and 2 picks. Luck also has decent weapons to throw to Owusu and Ryan Whalen.

We have talked about Owusu's game breaking ability (specifically in the special teams) this week, but we can't forget about Whalen who has teamed up with Owusu for 29 catches and 470 yards, giving Luck couple of dependable targets. It is going to be a huge challenge for our defense. They have been able to shut down our previous three opponents (keeping them within 300 yards). It is going to be interesting to see whether they can do the same today. Meanwhile, on the other end it is going to be interesting to see how the offense with Craft under center performs on the road. More on them after the jump.

All week we have been talking about how our defense is going to handle Gerhart. The Bruin offensive running attack in contrast hasn't gotten a lot of attention. Jon Gold from the Daily News writes:

The Bruins counter with a bit of lightning to Gerhart's thunder. While not nearly as prolific as the Cardinal's hot start on the ground, UCLA's running game has shown vast improvement over last season, with redshirt freshman Johnathan Franklin and sophomore Derrick Coleman leading the way. Franklin has rushed for 242 yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries, for a 4.7 average, and Coleman has picked up 116 yards and a score on just 18 carries.

With all the hype surrounding Stanford's running game, the Bruins believe it is their turn to get some attention.

"There's been a lot of talk about that, but I think the guys up front are ready," redshirt sophomore center Kai Maiava said. "We're ready to prove ourselves, get the respect we deserve."

Well, we will find out what they can do at the Farm. I am particularly curious to see what Knox can do today. While Franklin and Coleman have been pretty solid this season, I would love to see Chow throwing in few screen plays for Knox or get him out on the open field, so he can show some of the moves he displayed at Neyland stadium. In addtion to Knox, Norm Chow will have Christian Ramirez at his disposal today. Christian of course had a pretty memorable game in his first trip to Palo Alto. However, that was a long time ago under a different coach against a completely different Stanford team in Harbaugh's first season.

Not sure if I need to go over the Kevin Craft factor. Everyone here is well aware of it. The kid hasn't had a good game on the road in his UCLA career. However, that history is from last year when he played a team with no offensive line and thus credible running attack featuring a gimpy senior (full of heart) and a true freshman. Hopefully the offensive line today will come through with some pass protection giving Craft some time to execute on offense.

We have also talked about the revenge factor. From the San Francisco Chronicle:

"Everybody remembers the UCLA game last year, especially the defense," linebacker Clinton Snyder said. "All offseason, we said, 'We've got to finish.' "

Harbaugh called it "a bitter defeat" that "stuck in everybody's craw in the offseason." He said of the final drive that his players want "to make darn sure it never happens again."

Well. We will see how it works out for them. On our end we hope it works out like it did last time Bruins went on the road against a team hungry for the same kind of revenge. For more on today's game here are the writeups from the AP, Chris Foster (LAT), and Chris Dufresne (LAT).

We will have our game thread up about 30 minutes before the kickoff. Don't forget to get your pregame guesses in as we will close that thead when the game one goes up. Might also throw up a pre game thread right in about an hour. Enjoy the Saturday.

GO BRUINS.

Spaulding Roundup: More Notes, Quotes On Stanford Game

Nestor — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:26:01 -0000

Ted Miller from ESPN has a great quote from Reggie Carter giving us a little glimpse of his mindset heading into Saturday:

UCLA's always colorful inside linebacker Reggie Carter isn't so sure his Bruins want your love. Sure, they've pushed three opponents around. Sure, they will equal their 2008 win total with their next victory.

Just don't rank them, said Carter.

"No! Leave me at the bottom of the barrel," he said. "We've seen what happens to teams up in the rankings. Cal goes up in the rankings and what happened? They lost. They put Washington in the Top 25? They lost. I think everybody feeds you all that candy and ice cream and you get excited and you lose focus. So leave me unranked. Just tell me we're a terrible team. Don't give us any respect. Let us earn it. I don't want guys to get excited and happy -- 'Oh, yeah, we're ranked!' As soon as you lose, you'll be unranked. So let's not be ranked. Let's just try to win every week."

Of course, Carter also wrote a few amusing sonnets for reporters about the magical wonderfulness of Tennessee before the Bruins defense throttled the Volunteers, so it's likely that Carter was just doing what he normally does: Answering a reporter's question with a twinkle in his eye.

Well I have no idea what is going through Reggie's mind. However, I have to think Carter is well aware how UCLA football in recent years have always experienced a let down, when they started getting attention and respect early in the season from around the country. No doubt there is a little gamesmanship going on in the comments he and his coaches are making to the press. It's kind of silly to assume that Carter actually is ok with UCLA having a program that is not ranked week to week (I know and he knows we are rebuilding but our goal is to have a program that will be ranked every week from wire to wire during football seasons). Still at the same time the message he is sending as the leader of this football team should resonate with the youngsters who are sprinkled into the lineups on both sides of the field.

Moreover, Stanford is a team, which at this least at this snap shot of time deserves the respect it is getting from UCLA. From the game preview at Sports Network (On SBN):

Stanford is scoring 33.0 ppg and 419.5 total ypg this season. proof that the offense has been quite potent through four outings. The ground attack has been sensational, accounting for 233.8 ypg on 5.9 ypc. Toby Gerhart doesn't receive much national attention, but it is hard to ignore the numbers posted by the hard-charging tailback thus far. Gerhart has rushed for 516 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 5.7 ypc. Andrew Luck is the team's starting quarterback, and he is second in rushing with 136 yards. Luck has completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 742 yards and four touchdowns with only two interceptions. As for the receivers, Ryan Whalen has made 16 catches for 260 yards and two touchdowns, while Chris Owusu has recorded 13 grabs for 210 yards and two scores. Stanford racked up 424 yards en route to 34 points scored. The Cardinal had three offensive touchdowns, including a 60-yard gallop by Gerhart, who finished with a career-high 200 yards on the ground.

Opponents are scoring 17.0 ppg against Stanford, which is allowing 331.2 total ypg. The Cardinal have been tough against the run, yielding a mere 3.5 yards per attempt. As for the pass defense, there is some room for improvement as opposing quarterbacks are throwing for 212.2 ypg against Stanford. While the team has registered only five takeaways in four games, there have been 10 sacks notched by the defense. Clinton Snyder leads the squad with 30 tackles, and Thomas Keiser has seven TFLs, including four sacks. The fact that Stanford was able to hold Washington to 14 points last weekend was certainly impressive, and a closer look reveals that only one of the two Huskies' touchdowns was scored by the team's offense. Stanford yielded just 290 yards, as the defense continued its outstanding play.

The home team gets the nod in this tilt, as Stanford will find a away to get past UCLA. Expect Gerhart to carry the load as usual and add to his already impressive stats.

They went on to predict a 10 point (34-24) victory for the Cardinal at home. I am sure the coaches and players will take note of predictions like that and be full aware that they will be the underdogs on Saturday. Couple of more factors to be concerned about heading into Saturday.

How are we going to contain Chris Owusu? From the LA Times:

"We've seen every touchdown return five times," said Jeff Locke, who kicks off for UCLA. "So we've seen what not to do."

That challenge comes at a time when Gansz is unhappy with UCLA's kickoff coverage. Every other area of the Bruins' special teams has been solid, but they gave up 33.8 yards a return against Kansas State in their last game.

Making the point, though, is easy this week.

"All you got to do is put the tape on" of Owusu, Gansz said. "But as much as it is about him, it's about the 10 other guys blocking for him."

The Gansz solution?

"You got to change it up, give him different things, different looks," he said. "That's all I'm going to say about it."

Keep in mind the kid averages 59.2 yards (!!!!) per return. He has housed it 3 times (out of 6 returns) going for 91 yards (Washington), 94 yards (San Jose State) and 84 yards (Washington State). That is not just great, that sounds like he is as freakish as Notre Dame's Rocket was back in the day. If you want to read more on Owusu and get sick in the stomach, you can read up the profile DN's Jon Gold wrote up on him here. Not sure I have anything to add at this point beyond what we have already said this week and comments from Gansz.

Secondly, yes everyone is still talking about what are we going to get out Craft. Foster lays it out in the LA Times:

A trip down memory lane with UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft, who will face Stanford in Palo Alto on Saturday:

The last time Craft started a road game, he produced big -- for Arizona State. Interception returns of 38, 45, 100 yards by the Sun Devils were the longest scoring plays Craft "created" during the 2008 season.

The last time Craft faced Stanford, he took the Bruins on an 87-yard drive in the last two minutes, finishing with a game-winning touchdown pass.

That's the Craft UCLA hopes it is getting Saturday.

"Funny, it feels like last season was a long time ago, in the sense of games and our record," the soft-spoken Craft says. "But out on the field, it feels like it never went away."

Well, the optimist side of me tells me that Craft actually played a decent game against Kansas State and our team numbers would have looked much better if not for the sloppiness in team penalties that plagued us throughout the game. I still think the complexion of that game would have been different if that TD pass to Moya wasn't called back. Then the realistic side of me reminds me of Craft's horrible long throws and how uncomfortable he looked at times durng that dreadful third quarter.

Well I just hope the entire team steps up to help him out. That means if we can get solid play from our special teams, defense, and running game, all Craft will need to do is to make sure he is playing within his athletic abilities and giving us the best chance to win.

For more on tonight's game make sure to tune into tonight's (6 pm PST) inaugural BN podcast. I hear ryebreadaz and ucla13_usc9 have a full plate in store for us. They are going to go over all the key factors in play for UCLA and have s. andrew over who has already given us some great perspectives from the Stanford side. Should be fun.

GO BRUINS.

Stanford Preview

John Berkowitz — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:00:17 -0000

In the pre-season you probably wouldn't have pointed to this game as being one of the decisive games in determining the Pac 10 championship. Washington's upset over USC last week and strong play through the season's first three games has changed that.

Washington and Stanford enter the game as co leaders in the conference race. If Washington can beat the Cardinal last week’s upset over USC will have a lot more national validity. Winning one game is great...proving you can continue to win on a week to week basis is how championships are won.

Washington and Stanford are in unfamiliar territory right now. The top of the conference has been dominated by USC, Cal, and Oregon over the past six to seven years. The Huskies and Tree's on the other hand are more used to facing off to avoid the conference basement.

Young coaches have made a significant difference for both programs. Jim Harbaugh knows what it is like to knock off USC for example. He got that one out of the way early in one of the most stunning upsets in college football history. What he has done since is recruit extremely well on a national basis. UW is having a strong 2010 recruiting class but Stanford is actually even doing better. The current Stanford class is rated #1 in the Pac 10 and #8 overall in the country according to Scout.

When you break down Stanford and Washington position by position you realize exactly how even these two teams are right now from an overall talent perspective. Even in areas where I gave UW the edge the Cardinal are very close.

What stands out for me right now the most for me is Jake Locker. Jake is the best player in the conference and he can burn you in so many ways. Luck is very good and is probably the #2 guy in the conference right now despite being a RS frosh. That being said the level of experience and proficiency is on Locker's side. The thing that really separate Jake and Andrew is Jake's ability to simply make big plays when he has to. The final drive of the USC game is testament to his play making ability.

The odds makers favor Stanford by 9 points in this one and I think the smart money out there should be on Washington if the line holds. Stanford historically has a lot of problems with mobile QB' and Jake is the ultimate mobile QB on this side of the Mississippi.

Position Match Ups

Quarterback - Washington...Jake Locker has completed 60% of his passes so far this season and he is a threat to take the ball to the end zone every time he runs it. Locker just may have evolved into the best player in the Pac Jake was masterful last week against a tough USC defense. The win over USC is a huge confidence builder. Andrew Luck is going to be a real good QB. The Huskies face a player that is much better than Aaron Corp this week. He is mobile and throws the ball really well when he has to. This may be the match up of the two best QB's in the Pac 10.

Tailbacks - Even...Toby Gephart is one of the top power running backs in the country. You have to hit him behind the line, you have to hit him low, and wrap him up at the ankles, or he can really hurt you. Chris Polk may not have the size that Gephart has but as we saw against USC last week he knows how to move the pile forward against a couple of the best defenses in college football.

Fullback - Washington...Homer only touched the ball once last week but his true value is blocking for Locker and Polk. Add in Fogerson when he is at H-Back and UW gets the nod.

Wide Receivers - Washington...Chris Owusu and Doug Baldwin are big play threats, and Ryan Whalen is very consistent, but Washington has more depth here than Stanford. The Huskies are a passing team and Stanford is a running team that can actually pass pretty well when they have to. James Johnson and Jermain Kearse have evolved into UW's go to guys but the huskies actually do a pretty good job of spreading it around which is the sign of having a good QB.

Tight Ends - Even...Kavario Middleton is still learning. He had a couple of mistakes last week that probably took points off the scoreboard. His blocking can be termed a work in progress. He does have sticky hands and has the potential of having many big days this season. Jim Dray and Coby Fleener return for Stanford. Dray is still shaking off the rust from a knee injury last season. Stanford has and edge in blocking while Middleton is the better receiver.

Offensive Line - Even...Washington's offensive line has surprised in the early going playing some pretty tough defenses. Ben Ossai has resurrected his career and had a fine game against USC last week. David DeCastro a Seattle native has claimed a starting job for Stanford. Andrew Phillips is probably the best player on the Stanford line. Early injuries have forced the Cards to start two RS tackles.

Defensive Tackle...Even...This is a pretty tough call because Stanford is led by Ekon Udofia who is four year starter. Washington gets a slight edge because of the flexibility they attacked USC with last week. Washington can go with big or small lineups based on speed. The move of Everette Thompson to DT last week was brilliant. Expect UW to go large this weekend.

Defensive End...Even...Another tough call because Stanford has some talented DE's. Daniel Teo Nesheim is one of the conference’s best and the addition of Talia Crichton on the other side is giving UW some true speed on the pass rush. Stanford's Erik Lorig and Tom Keiser both earned Pac 10 honorable all star status last season.

Linebacker...Washington...I think it is pretty tough to find a better trio then Washington has in Foster, Savannah and Butler. Another impressive factor was how well the depth played last week. Stanford sports a pretty good trio in Snyder, Amajoyi, and Powers.

Cornerback...Washington...Going into the season the CB position was a big question mark. Things have worked out better than expected. Quinton Richardson is having an excellent season and Desmond Trufant is going to be a four year starter. Trufant looks like his older brother out there and he will keep improving every week. his potential is quite amazing. Vonzell McDowell has been solid as a starter, fifth back, and backup.

Safety...Washington...Nate Williams is having a great year and he found a good running mate last week in Justin Glenn. Glenn was a factor all over the field. He tackles and hits well. He has great coverage abilities too. Bo McNally is a pretty good player but he has too many holes to cover as the Stanford as the Card center fielder. Delano Howell whose brother played LB at UW and just needs experience after moving over from RB.

Special Teams...Stanford...Erik Folk was the hero last week and Will Mahan had some good punts. Washington isn't giving up big plays in coverage, but they haven't created any big plays in the return game. The Cards appear solid so far in every single area. The thing that gives the edge in this one going in is the return game. they have brought it back to the house three times so far on returns.

Game Match ups

Washington running game versus the Stanford defense

Stanford has an active front seven that is used to facing a power running game each day in practice. They held SJSU to only 26 yards on 28 carries last week. They didn't do so well against Wake Forest. They gave up 250 yards and that was the tale of the game. They just couldn't figure out the Demon Deacon offense which is pretty tricky.

Washington has been able to run against everyone this year. You would think that LSU and USC would have been able to hut them down but they didn't. The Huskies haven't had any big plays yet but they do pick up big yardage on first down which has helped the offense become one of the national leaders in third down conversions.

Chris Polk is the best looking Washington back in over a decade. He has all the tools. He can catch the ball, run with power, and he has the speed to break the long one. What has really set Chris apart this fall has been his ability to make yards after contact. Polk carried the USC line for valuable extra yards last Saturday.

The last time Jake played in Palo Alto he had a field day running the football. If the coaches decide to give 10-12 pre designed running plays he is very capable of picking up 70-100 rushing yards against the Tree's.

Washington Passing Game versus the Stanford defense

Jake Locker has the potential to light up the Stanford secondary this week. Stanford has been giving up over 200 yards per game this season and it won't change on Saturday. I look for Jake to have a big game and go over the 300 mark.

Stanford has the potential to put together a pretty good pass rush. Locker's speed and mobility on the other hand allow him to avoid problems in the backfield. While another QB may end up with a coverage sack Jake can turn that into a 20 yard run.

Washington's receivers have been excellent so far this season. We only counted two drops against USC last week. James Johnson is playing like a senior only three weeks into his first Husky campaign. Jermaine Kearse has been a proven big play guy converting big time on third down to keep drives moving.

What separates UW from Stanford is the multiple targets Jake has to choose from each game. I wouldn't be surprised to see nine players pick up receptions this Saturday.

Stanford rushing game versus the Washington defense

The Cardinal are a power running team. They fumbled three times last week and that will be a big problem if they continue the habit against Washington. Gephart is very hard to bring down if you don't hit him in the backfield. If he gets into the secondary he runs like a freight train and is almost impossible to bring down.

A big key for Washington in this one is taking advantage of the turnover prone Cardinal. If the Huskies can create and extend an early lead it puts the onus on Stanford QB Andrew Luck rather than Toby Gephart. If you can take Gephart out of the game plan you are probably going to win this game.

The Husky defensive line did a great job controlling a big back in the LSU game. They adjusted in the first quarter and were able to handle the USC rushing game after the Trojans got off to a fast start. I think Washington should be able to contain Gephart for the most part but a back like that usually finds a way to get his yards if he gets the ball.

Stanford passing game versus the Washington Defense

Andrew Luck is a great looking QB who will most likely be playing in the NFL some day. He has a lot more mobility than I thought and he is a very accurate passer. The key to Luck as with any young QB is to rattle him early and keep rattling him throughout the game.

The special teams battle

Stanford's Chris Owusu returned the opening kickoff last week 94 yards for a TD against SJSU. Stanford has returned three kicks so far for TD's this year. Washington needs to be careful in coverage and take away the Stanford return game. UW was very successful against LSU and USC in doing that. Mahan is an excellent touch punter but he had a couple of muffs last week. He needs to be on his game against Stanford. Erik Folk was the hero last week with three FG's. He has been very accurate this season during games but fans hold their breath every time he approaches the ball. Last spring it was doubtful if we could convert a PAT or FG. Right now his kicking has become a team strength.

Washington needs to eliminate the big play return in this game to win this segment of the game. They need to keep the ball out of the hands of Chris Owusu.

The intangibles

Crowd noise is a huge factor on the road. Just ask Aaron Corp, Pete Carroll, or Todd Marinovich. Stanford on the other hand has little crowd noise because the games are so poorly attended. UW fans could conceivably outnumber Cardinal fans. UW has a large alumni base in the Bay Area. Expected attendance will be in the 30,000 range.

Three of Stanford's four turnovers resulted in all 17 of San Jose State's points last week. If they do that against a much tougher Washington defense they are going to be in big trouble.

"That's the best quarterback we've played in nine years here," Pete Carroll said when told Washington has beaten only Idaho and USC the last two years. " Jake Locker has ridiculous talent, and had he remained healthy last year, Tyrone [Willingham] would still be coaching there."

Washington needs to avoid enjoying the win over USC for too long. I Washington didn't start focusing on Stanford by practice on Monday they could be in for a long day Saturday. Coach Steve Sarkisian echoed that thought with this statement:

"There aren’t enough hours in the day to be looking at what everybody else is saying, or how we’re going to do something, or what we should do or shouldn’t do," Steve Sarkisian said. "This is about us, and our preparation. We can’t waver from who we are."

Washington is a football team that has to work very hard for everything they get. They can't forget that. Washington doesn't win football games by having more talent. They win by having their talent work harder and smarter than the opposition. As a team they can't get away from that no matter how good Jake Locker is.

Game Notes

Stanford won 35-28 last season in Husky Stadium.

Washington leads the all-time series 40-35-4.

Stanford DE Tom Keiser had three sacks against San Jose State and he's tied for first in the conference with four sacks and ranks first with six tackles for a loss.

Jake Locker leads the conference so far with five TD passes.

Jake's season ended early in the game against Stanford last season when he broke his thumb throwing a block.

The Huskies are third in the nation in third-down conversion percentage at 60%.

USC went 0-10 in third down conversions against the Washington defense.

Chris Owusu ranks No. 1 in the nation in kickoff returns. He's averaging 52.8 yards per return and has taken two back for touchdowns.

Stanford Safety Delano Howell's brother was a starting LB at Washington.

The Cardinal was up 17-3 at the half against Wake Forest and lost 24-17.

Toby Gerhart is one of the top tailbacks in the Pac-10 and a finalist for the Doak Walker Award.

Jim Harbaugh (11-16), third season. He was also the coach at the University of San Diego, where he went 22-2 from 2004-06. Harbaugh played 15 seasons in the NFL as a quarterback (1987-2001).

Harbaugh and Sarkisian have held the same position on the Oakland Raiders’ staff – quarterbacks coach. Harbaugh was there in 2002; Sarkisian in 2004.

In 2007, Stanford knocked off No. 2 USC in Harbaugh’s first season en route to finishing 4-8.

Three in-state high school players are on the Stanford roster – OG David DeCastro, QB Tavita Pritchard and WR Marcus Rance. Pritchard is a Clover Park High graduate, and an off-and-on starter the past two seasons.

The facilities arms race took on ridiculous extremes at Stanford, where, in the off season, Coach Jim Harbaugh had a bathroom installed adjacent to his office for an estimated $50,000 to 70,000, booster-financed.

Five questions about Stanford

John Berkowitz — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:53:28 -0000

David Fowkes is an expert on Stanford football for the Bay Area Examiner. Dave asked me if I we could exchange five questions each about the big game on Saturday. Click on his link because he could use a few page views over at his site.

Dave is probably the only guy other than John Wilner who has in depth information about Stanford football.

John's Berkowitz's Five Questions about Stanford.

1. Last time Jake Locker played a full game against Stanford he dominated and Washington came out with an easy win. Short of breaking his thumb again what will the Cardinal do to minimize the damage he can
cause on offense.

Minimize is the key word. I think Stanford knows that shutting Locker down completely is a bit far fetched. That said, the best way to stop a quarterback is to hit a quarterback and Stanford has a pretty good defensive line and some very good pass rushers on the end. Tom Keiser has just been added to the watch list for the Ted Hendricks Award (given to the best defensive end in the country) after his three sack performance against San Jose State. Senior Erik Lorig also puts constant pressure on the quarterback from the other side. If Stanford can get pressure and force Locker to move or throw before he wants to, it will lighten the burden on the defensive backfield. Linebackers Chike Amajoyi and Clinton Snyder will need to use their speed to keep an eye on Locker scrambling out of the backfield.
Without any pressure though, Stanford's defense will be in trouble.

2. Stanford is giving up over 200 passing yards per game this season. What is your assessment of the Cardinal secondary right now?

You would think three games into a season it would be easy to assess, but in this case they are still a bit of a mystery. With two former offensive players, Richard Sherman and Delano Howell, now starting on defense every
game should be a little better. Howell has proved to be a great tackler. Senior Bo McNally is a great hitter. On the corners, Sherman and Corey Gatewood are improving but need to be better. It is a very athletic secondary which is good, but very unseasoned. Bottom line again, with a pass rush this secondary can be very good but left on their own, there is a lot of yardage to allow.

3. Do you think the Stanford is too one dimensional of offense? It seems if you stop Gephart you stop Stanford.

That changes this year. Andrew Luck is the real deal at quarterback. For a kid with just three starts under his belt he plays calm and cool. He has a great arm and a good sense for the game. For the first time in a few years
Stanford has some explosive players at wide out as well. Wide receivers Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen are very good and can take a 5-yard route and turn it into a touchdown on any play. This year's Cardinal is far more balanced. The problem for them so far has not been when opponents stop the running game, but the fact that they have stopped themselves with penalties
and turnovers.

4. Who are some of the Cardinal play makers we need to keep an eye on this Saturday?

WR Chris Owusu has made big plays on offense but also has two kickoff returns for touchdowns. RB Toby Gerhart and QB Andrew Luck are obvious choices. Nobody outside of Stanford seems to know about Ryan Whalen but all he does is catch everything thrown his way. He has surprising speed. On defense, as mentioned the ends will be huge for this game with Tom Keiser and Erik Lorig trying to control Locker. Linebacker Clinton Snyder is the
leading tackler on defense.

5. We are all impressed by the way Jim Harbaugh has rebuilt the Stanford football program. Is this the year that Stanford goes bowling?

I think so. This game will let us know more but Stanford is clearly a better team. They don't have a lot of depth but the front line players are as good as we have seen on the Farm in a number of years. That said, as Washington
proved last week, the Pac-10 is wide open. My hunch is that if Stanford plays their game, limits their turnovers and penalties, then they can compete with anybody and will win enough games to go to a bowl and maybe
even a good bowl. But there are still enough question marks out on the field that you certainly can not guaranty anything.

Dave's Fowkes Five Questions about Washington

1. After last weekend, Jake Locker has moved into the national spotlight as one of the top quarterbacks in the land. Other than good health, what is he doing to take his game to the next level?

Honestly it is all about the coaching he has received over the last six months. Under Willingham they discouraged him from seeking outside tutoring despite the fact that there was not a actual QB coach on the staff. Steve Sarkisian and Jeff Nussmeier are two of the best college QB coaches in the country. You get better under that type of tutelage. Sarkisian also parked Jake with Steve Clarkson who is one the country's top QB guru's. He helped Jake adapt to the pro style offense that Sarkisian wants to run. In previous years it was all about Jake against the defense. Now it is about Jake and all the tools he has around him complimenting him.

2. As Stanford fans can attest, beating USC is a lot of fun. How do the Huskies and Coach Sark avoid a let down the week after?

Don't read the newspaper and don't turn on the computer. Reading your own press clippings is the worst thing you can do in this type of situation. Washington is coming off an 0-12 season and I feel the players and the coaches are smart enough to realize why they won last weeks game. USC simply turned over the ball too many times. If USC doesn't turn over the ball they win the game by 17 points. I think Washington realizes that they have to play hard on every snap. The coaches realize that they have to out fox each opponent. Washington can beat every single team left on the schedule. They also have the ability to lose every game. Getting back to 0-12...I think that is deeply ingrained in the psyche of the team. They know they need a supreme effort to win each week.

3. The main mission of anybody playing against Stanford is to stop Toby Gerhart. Who will shoulder the load for that responsibility and how will they get it done?

Our defensive line shut down some serious big backs in the LSU game. I think the LSU backs are the equal of Toby Gephart. We held Idaho to under 100 yards rushing. USC ran for 250 yards against us which is unacceptable. The saving grace is after the first quarter they only ran for only 134 yards the rest of the game. In addition to that they were 0-10 in third down conversions. That is a remarkable state. Even more remarkable than the four turnovers.Washington has a number of different looks on the defensive line they can throw at an offense. They have a speed lineup and a bulk lineup. You will see both on Saturday. we have one of the best linebacking crews in the Pac 10. Donald Butler who is a senior middle linebacker was the national defensive player of the week. Overall we have some weapons in the front seven. If Gephart breaks into the secondary we have some DB's who are very good against the run. Washington played very physical last Saturday and I expect that to carry through to this week.

4. Stanford's special teams have really stepped up this season and have been a force both on returns and coverage. How are the Huskies special team units faring?

I have to give the edge to Stanford at this point because they are scoring TD's with their special teams. We did shut down the nations best return man against LSU so our coverage and strategy this year has worked well. We have an excellent punter who has great touch. He can boom the ball with pin point placement. Our FG kicker Erik Folk was 3-3 with a long of 48 against USC. He has been consistent. We haven't broken any big returns yet. We have speed back there so I am sure it will happen as the season goes on. Overall special teams play is an indication of a teams quality depth. I think UW and Stanford are about equal in that department. Once again the thing that separates Stanford from Washington on special teams is 21 points scored on returns. That is just huge!

5. Washington has played in three games, all at home with a "good" loss to LSU and the huge upset of USC. How will a young upstart team handle their first road experience?

Playing on the road is never easy. There are a lot of adjustments you have to make. This is the first road game under a new staff so I am sure there are some kinks to work out. On the plus side we will be playing in front of an unenthusiastic crowd of 25,000 Tree fans on medical marijuana. Usually close to 10,000 Husky fans show up since we travel well and have a lot of alumni in the Bay Area. Since our fans load up on beer and hard liquor before the game chances are we will make more noise. The last time Washington played Stanford on the road it seemed like it was a home game for UW. In other words I don't think the crowd will be much of a factor. I think it is a great transitional road game to get us ready for Notre Dame the following week.

This game has to be broken into four components.

A. Jake Locker vs the Stanford defense

I don't think Stanford can stop Locker through the air or on the ground.

B. Toby Gephart vs the Washington offense

If Gephart gets into the secondary UW could have a long day. If Washington can hold him to around 100 yards they should be fine.

C. Tree special teams vs UW special teams

Stanford has proven they can score with their special teams. What I really like about Harbaugh is that he really emphasizes this part of the game because he knows he hasn't built the depth and diversity he needs to compete toe to toe with every team in the league. He is close and after the next recruiting class arrives you will se a different Stanford team that will blow some doors off. In the meantime he concentrates on winning this part of the game to even up any disadvantage his team has.

D. Andrew Luck is the second best QB in the Pac 10

Andrew Luck frightens me. I saw him play against WSU and was surprised by how mobile he was. To me he looks like a future first round draft choice. I expect Washington to contain Gephart but can they stop Luck once the game is on his shoulders? Special teams and Andrew Luck are the two wild cards in this game. Harbaugh likes to throw under twenty times per game but Luck has completed 60% of his passes which is amazing for a RS frosh. I think Luck is going to be the X-factor on Saturday.

Elon vs. Wake Forest Preview: What To Watch For

MRickman84 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:00:22 -0000

Photo by Bob Hebert

The Demon Deacons' game against Elon on Saturday poses some very interesting storylines. In their final game before ACC play, it is obvious that the Deacs will want to work on and tune up their game before facing off against BC next week. The Phoenix should be a good FCS opponent to see what Wake Forest can do. Here's what to keep an eye on in the Sept. 19 game.

Replacing Kyle Wilber

This is likely the biggest storyline for the Deacs going into week three. The loss of Wilber for six to eight weeks is a tough one, especially considering that he was Wake's best past rusher by a good margin.

It will largely be up to redshirt sophomores Gelo Orange and Will Wright to get the job done. Orange was just moved to the defensive line this summer after playing linebacker during his first couple years on campus. He does not possess ideal size for the position at 6'1" 225, but hopes to use his speed and quickness to get around the much bigger and stronger offensive lineman that he will face.

Wright was impressive in the summer scrimmages and will use the unfortunate injury to Wilber to prove to the coaches that he can get the job done in actual games. His measureables are nearly identical to Wilber's and he hopes to make the same kind of impact that Kyle made during his initial reps last season.

If these guys cannot get the job done adequately, look out for the possibility of seeing a true freshman take the field. Coach Grobe feels that Zach Thompson is the most physical of the defensive ends on the roster and could see some playing time depending on the results of the coming weeks.

He's Just Being Riley

It sure feels good to have the old Riley Skinner back. Skinner, who has successfully led seven fourth quarter game-winning drives, really looked to be in his element again. This was due to a combination of factors.

First, the offensive line did a much better job of protecting Riley and giving him a pocket. This allowed Skinner to find open receivers and also take more shots downfield (including the long pass to Lovell Jackson in the last two minutes).

In addition to the OL protecting Riley, the Deacs did a much better job of running the football (discussed below), which kept the defense honest and made them respect the run, again giving Skinner more opportunities to make a play.

Skinner's comfort level made him look like a completely different quarterback (and earned him ACC Offensive Player of the Week honors) than he did in the first game against Baylor when he threw three interceptions and had a 52.0 quarterback rating.

Skinner made effective three and five step passes as well as scrambled well (4 rushes for 21 yards), and his 20 yard reception was just a bonus. As has been said time and again, if Wake Forest is going to get back to their fourth straight bowl game, Skinner and the offense will have to lead the way, and the win over Stanford, especially in the second half, makes it seem like that will be a good possibility.

Bringing Back The Rushing Attack

A week after a very disheartening performance by the Wake Forest running backs (including the fact that they were being underutilized), the three-headed monster of Josh Adams, Brandon Pendergrass and Kevin Harris exploded for 140 yards on 24 attempts, good for 5.2 yards per carry.

This was really a testament to just how well the offensive line played against the Cardinal. The line was able to open up big holes in the middle, including some nice pulling guard plays off-tackle, and the running backs hit the hole hard. With the middle opening up, Wake could also run to the outside.

But it is important to highlight the receivers' contributions to the rushing attack. Chris Givens and Devon Brown combined for 98 yards on 13 attempts (7.5 ypc). Grobe's offense seems to be coming together, and hopefully the Deacs can sustain drives as they did in the second half (19:44 time of possession vs. Stanford's 10:16) by committing to the run.

The Phoenix Through The Air

The Wake secondary has a tough test ahead of them when they face Elon on Saturday. The Phoenix, whom the Demon Deacons have not played since Sept. 16, 1939 (a 34-0 victory), are currently No. 11 in the FCS coaches poll and they've earned it.

In their two wins over Presbyterian and Davidson, the Phoenix have won by a combined score of 97-7. That's not a typo. In fact, Elon's statistics are really mind-blowing-they lead the nation with 594.5 yards per game, 367.5 yards passing per game, a 187.42 passing efficiency rating, 14.4 yards per catch and 9 passing touchdowns. I'm not listing these stats just to give a laundry list, it is to really hammer home how important it is for the Deacs to stay home and play mistake-free football.

Now, Davidson and Presbyterian are hardly Florida and USC, but stats are stats. The Deacs are not going to overlook Elon as they prepare for their game in Chestnut Hill, Mass. when they face BC. This will be a good opportunity though for Wake to get their secondary some really good work, as Elon will be passing a lot and the defensive backs will get a lot of looks.

Elon may be an FCS opponent, but this should be a competitive game-and fun to watch-as scoring won't exactly be at a premium on Saturday.

Slow Starts

If the Deacons get off to another dreadful start this Saturday, it could end up being a very stressful night for Wake fans. In the Baylor and Stanford games, Wake deferred the coin toss and allowed both offenses to easily drive down and score on their initial possessions. In the weekly press conference this week Coach Grobe addressed this issue and stated that he may break away from his normal habit and choose to receive the ball first due to Wake's slow defensive starts.

As we have seen in several games so far this year, the longer that the underdogs stay within striking range, the more confidence they gain. As a result, it will be important for the Deacons to pick up where they left off in the second half of the Stanford game by running the ball effectively and owning time of possession. If Wake can get out to a sizable early lead, it will likely break the spirits of their nearby opponents and eventually allow the coaching staff to go a little deeper into the depth chart.

The Kicking Game

As his quotes indicated at the press conference this Tuesday, Coach Grobe was none too pleased with the efforts from the kicking game last week. He stated that the competition was indeed an open one again after some shaky field goal attempts by Shane Popham early in the season.

While it will likely be unknown who will have the duties until gameday, do not be surprised if either Cline Beam or Jimmy Newman got their chance during the game Saturday. Beam, who already does kickoffs, has the strongest leg on the team, but has been somewhat inconsistent throughout the summer practices.

Newman, on the other hand, is likely the kicker of the future for the Deacs. While most expected to see him red-shirted this season, he may see the field earlier than expected if he can prove to the coaching staff that he can be consistent and that he is not significantly affected by his sore hip.

Watching The Secondary

Through two games, the Wake Forest defensive backs look to be coming into their own. During the Stanford game, Andrew Luck was throwing all over the Deacs in the first half, completing 15/22 passes for 183 yards and tossing two TDs to Ryan Whalen.

After a challenge from Jim Grobe to the entire team, the secondary answered the challenge. The defensive line put pressure on Luck, forcing him out of the pocket and making him uncomfortable. This allowed the DBs to play in one-on-one coverage and make plays, including Kenny Okoro's first career interception.

If the Deacs can continue to get after the opposing quarterbacks, this will get the backs in a rhythm. In addition, it appears that Brad Lambert is getting more confidence in the secondary as a whole and hopefully that will result in the corners playing closer to the receivers and taking away the cushion that has been giving teams short, easy passes in the flats and over the middle.

This may also result in more one-on-one coverage and Lambert calling more blitzes for the safeties, which should also give the Deacs more sack opportunities. The defensive backs are setting the tone for the Demon Deacons, as four of the six leading tacklers are in the secondary (Alex Frye, Brandon Ghee, Cyhl Quarles and Mike Williams).

It is obvious that Brandon Ghee is a true athlete and if he is able to refine his game even more, he has the potential to become a shutdown corner for the rest of the season.

Wake Forest 24, Stanford 17 -- Skinner and Lovell save the day

MRickman84 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:55:39 -0000

After the loss to Baylor, the big question coming into Wake Forest's game against Stanford was whether the Deacs had enough heart and execution to match their talent level. For the first half of the game against the Cardinal this afternoon, that question went unanswered, but after halftime, the team seemed to find what had been eluding them for the first six quarters of the season...

Stanford got out to an early start, much like Baylor a week ago, scoring on their first drive behind the strong arm of Andrew Luck and the receiving skills of Ryan Whalen, who ended the game with nine catches for 123 yards and two TDs on the day.

The Deacs were able to move the ball up and down the field, but in the first half had a ton of trouble converting their opportunities, including a 12 play drive that ended in a disappointing field goal, and another drive down deep in Stanford's redzone that resulted in a missed 33 yard field goal.

Stanford jumped all over their chances, scoring again and tacking on a 54 yard field goal at the end of the half, using a quick drive to get into field goal territory and the Cardinal was up 17-3, seemingly burying the Demon Deacons.

Head Coach Jim Grobe said at halftime that he wasn't allowed to say what the team talked about at halftime, but that it must have gotten through to them. That just might be coach-speak for "I reamed the guys out and told them to prove to me that they were men."

Whatever it was he did say worked. The Deacs came out in the second half riled up and showed the kind of hair on fire mentality that has won them so many ballgames in the last four years. The defense which had struggled so mightily the first six quarters of the year showed swagger, making plays, getting after the ball and doing a better job of wrapping up the ball carrier. They also finally put some pressure on the quarterback, which got Luck out of his comfort zone and forced him to rush some throws.

That confidence carried over to the offense, as the running game finally came alive. By using a mixture of end arounds, plunges and off-tackle runs with pulling guards, the Deacs moved down the field with ease. This running attack opened up the field for fifth-year senior Riley Skinner, who looked like the ACC Championship winning quarterback of old.

The Deacs scored first off a Mike Rinfrette run up the middle and then on a strike from Skinner to Jordan Williams, tying the game at 17 all. The Deacs got the ball back late in the fourth but gave it right back on a punt in Stanford territory and the Cardinal started driving, but were crippled by a cut block penalty off of a long Gerhart run, leading to a long third down that Stanford was not able to convert.

The Deacs got the ball back and would not give it up, driving downfield, with Skinner looking extremely comfortable, flashing a deep ball to Lovell Jackson down to the three. It took two QB sneaks, but the Deacs put it in, going up 24-17 and sealing the win after a valiant "band is on the field" attempt by Stanford.

For all of the ups and downs, Wake Forest is 1-1, and finally had solid play on both sides of the ball, with 459 yards of offense on the day and no scoring from Stanford in the second half. Josh Adams and Kevin Harris combined for over 100 yards and Chris Givens and Devon Brown also racked up 98 yards on their own. Skinner was 18-26 for 187 yards, had a rushing touchdown of his own and a 20 yard reception.

The game has a lot of positives, but the Deacs did lose Kyle Wilber to a broken leg suffered in the second half. He will be out approximately six weeks.

Wake will take on Elon next week and hope to continue this momentum. For inexperienced teams, there is no replacement for just that...experience; and the Demon Deacons have garnered some very valuable time in the last two games that they should be able to use come ACC play.

OPPONENT PREVIEW: Stanford Cardinal

Dancing Football — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:43:30 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Stanford football success will be relying heavily on Luck this season. Andrew Luck that is. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Browse more photos »

Record: 5-7 (2008)

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (3rd season, 9-15)

Offense: 26.3 PPG, 5.4 YPP (2008)

Stanford's offense was a pretty average unit altogether last season. The running game was the clear focus as the Cardinal racked up 490 rushing attempts against just 287 passing attempts. This year looks to be more of the same as Stanford will be armed with a freshman quarterback and a stud running back.

The biggest news out of Stanford this summer was Harbaugh's decision to start redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck over incumbent Tavita Pritchard. Luck was rated the #4 quarterback in the country coming out of high school one year ago, so it is clear that the head coach is taking the chance Luck's talent will overcome his inexperience and he will be more effective overall than Pritchard. Most who have watched Tavita Pritchard play over the last two seasons would agree that is a good bet. Luck will have Stanford's two returning receivers to throw to, Ryan Whalen (a former walk-on) and Doug Baldwin.

While the quarterback situation is very interesting, Stanford looks to make its biggest gains on the ground. The offensive line returns four players with starting experience as they look to open up big holes for star running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart surpassed the the Stanford single season rushing record last year and has set a lofty goal of 2,000 yards in 2009.

Defense: 27.4 PPGA, 5.6 YPPA (2008)

Not to be outdone by the averageness of the offense, the Stanford defense was also able to be middle of the pack last year. Stanford has an opportunity to be good on this side of the ball because their strength starts from the inside out.

The Cardinal defensive line may be the team's best overall unit. Senior defensive end Erik Lorig, a converted tight end, is regarded as the best of the bunch. The Cardinal staff seem to regard Erik as undersized, but at 6'4", 275, he appears to be just right for a Pac 10 defensive end. Lorig teams with 2008 freshman all-american Thomas Keiser to form a formidable defensive end combo.

The linebackers are led by senior Clinton Snyder. He is on a slew of preseason watch lists and is moving to the middle this year. In the defensive backfield, Lott Trophy candidate Bo McNally returns. He led the team in tackles and interceptions last year.

By far the most important player on either side of the ball is SAM linebacker Will Powers. Aside from the fact that he has the best possible surname in the entire world, he also started two games last season. What two games were they you ask? Cal and USC. It is clear that Harbaugh saves Powers for only the most important of situations. Will Powers is also among the smartest of the smarties down at Stanford, as he was named to the Pac 10 all academic team in 2008.

Special Teams:

Stanford was able to control field position as the punting unit led the Pac 10 with a 37.7 net punting average last season. David Green returns as Stanford's punter. It should also be known that SAM linebacker Will Powers plays on special teams, which is what undoubtedly led to the teams ability to cover punts so well a season ago.

Notre Dame transfer kicker Nate Whitaker is first on the depth chart after beating out Travis Golia and his younger brother, Eric Whitaker. Nate Whitaker missed his only field goal attempt while at Notre Dame and was 1 out 2 on extra point conversions. By using this very small sample size and projecting it out over the entire season, it can be determined that A) Stanford will not make a single field goal in 2009 and B) they will get just six points out of half their touchdowns. Head coach Harbaugh should be strongly advised to "go for it" as much as possible. (Except of course in situations where his fantastic punt team can do their work.)

Stanford in in trouble if:

The run game is limited. Harbaugh loves to pound that football. In the CougCenter podcast with Jon Wilner, who covers Stanford for the San Jose Mercury News, Wilner was quoted as saying Harbaugh wants to play "Michigan 1982 football." With the freshman quarterback Andrew Luck out there, it would seem that most teams are going to elect to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop Toby Gerhart. Stanford will be putting a lot of their potential bowl hopes this season on that run game, and if teams are able to stop it, they could be in trouble. The good news for them is that will be a very difficult thing to do.

Inside the Numbers : Stanfurd

TwistNHook — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:00:05 -0000

Well, here it goes again. The nervous feelings. The pit of the stomach. A Cal fan never feels confident against Stanford. Especially not one who came of age during the Holmoecaust. And ESPECIALLY not one who just watched the last two Cal games. This has been an up and down season for Cal. Rough losses. Big victories. It's almost over and we (hopefully) have a soft landing at the end. Although Stanford has clearly shown some vivacity this season. They managed to do two things we couldn't, beat OSU and Arizona.

And score more than 3 points against USC. Let's take a look at the nuts and bolts of this Stanford team to see who we will be facing off against tomorrow.

Here it goes again......

Finally, we've been posting a lot recently. Check it: YouTube Thurday, Roundtable, B-Ball Recap; Arizona analysis; Marshawn v. Browns; Top25; Bowl Scenarios; OSU Thoughts; Pete Newell Memories; Big Game Memories

All numbers are from here.

TEAM STATISTICS	STAN	OPP
SCORING	299	292
Points Per Game	27.2	26.5
FIRST DOWNS	202	238
Rushing	111	87
Passing	72	127
Penalty	19	24
RUSHING YARDAGE	2272	1548
Yards gained rushing	2577	1920
Yards lost rushing	305	372
Rushing Attempts	453	389
Average Per Rush	5.0	4.0
Average Per Game	206.5	140.7
TDs Rushing	25	18
PASSING YARDAGE	1514	2619
Att-Comp-Int	248-139-12	374-236-6
Average Per Pass	6.1	7.0
Average Per Catch	10.9	11.1
Average Per Game	137.6	238.1
TDs Passing	10	15
TOTAL OFFENSE	3786	4167
Total Plays	701	763
Average Per Play	5.4	5.5
Average Per Game	344.2	378.8
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards	52-1172	57-1198
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards	21-222	13-71
INT RETURNS: #-Yards	6-102	12-119
KICK RETURN AVERAGE	22.5	21.0
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE	10.6	5.5
INT RETURN AVERAGE	17.0	9.9
FUMBLES-LOST	23-9	29-14
PENALTIES-Yards	76-689	80-684
Average Per Game	62.6	62.2
PUNTS-Yards	49-1980	47-1789
Average Per Punt	40.4	38.1
Net punt average	38.1	31.6
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game	29:35	30:25
3RD-DOWN Conversions	53/137	65/149
3rd-Down Pct	39%	44%
4TH-DOWN Conversions	7/12	6/10
4th-Down Pct	58%	60%
SACKS BY-Yards	33-237	17-118
MISC YARDS	-20	0
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED	37	35
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS	13-15	15-19
ON-SIDE KICKS	0-0	0-0
RED-ZONE SCORES	37-39 95%	40-50 80%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS	30-39 77%	25-50 50%
PAT-ATTEMPTS	34-35 97%	33-33 100%
ATTENDANCE	171292	350631
Games/Avg Per Game	5/34258	6/58438
Neutral Site Games		0/0

Ok, let's look at some general stats first. We saw teams like OSU and USC just racking up the points and yards and first downs against their opponents. Stanford has barely outscored their opponents. They have fewer first downs. Fewer yards. The breakdown of offense is indicative of their style of offense. Tons more rushing yards than passing yards. 700 more. Clearly a run first team, the very kind of team that Cal plays well. They've actually even run fewer plays than their opponents.

Their 3rd down % is worse than their opponents. I feel that, looking at these numbers, we can handle this team if we play to our ability.

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Gerhart, Toby	11	191	1069	36	1033	5.4	14	46	93.9
Kimble, Anthony	11	112	716	28	688	6.1	6	83	62.5
Loukas, Alex	9	36	223	37	186	5.2	1	29	20.7
Pritchard, Tavita	11	58	268	140	128	2.2	1	40	11.6

Well, here it is. The crux of Stanford. The key to Stanford. Toby Gerhart. The Quizz of Stanford. The Jeremiah Johnson of Stanford. The every USC RB on that fucking team of Stanford. He has almost 200 attempts on the year. He's averaging 5.4 a carry, which I believe is more than Quizz. Almost 100 yards a game. He's the biggest part of their offense. If we can shut him down, we will be able to control this game, I believe. Said the same thing about Quizz, though, and we saw what happened there.

He's backed up by Anthony Kimble, who I know little about to be honest. His numbers look better than Gerhart, but in a more limited role. More yards per carry but about a hundred fewer carries. The main focus is Gerhart. If Kimble and Gerhart are both destroying us, then it could be a LOOONG day.

Toby Gerhart via grfx.cstv.com

PASSING	GP	Effic	Cmp-Att-Int	Pct	Yards	TD	Long	Avg/G
Pritchard, Tavita	11	113.4	125-217-10	57.6	1327	9	61	120.6
Loukas, Alex	9	115.6	9-18-1	50.0	125	1	41	13.9
Forcier, Jason	4	63.1	5-13-1	38.5	62	0	26	15.5
Total..........	11	111.0	139-248-12	56.0	1514	10	61	137.6
Opponents......	11	132.0	236-374-6	63.1	2619	15	55	238.1

Tavita Pritchard. Wasn't he the shmuckzoid that beat us last year? The name angers me to this day! Luckily, it appears he isn't very good. 120 yards a game. 57% completion rate. 113 QB efficiency. The passing game clearly not the strength of the team. That's why stopping Gerhart is so important. It's like the Oregon game. We were able to contain their run game and force them to pass. They couldn't. Masoli got 44 yards. If we can do the same here, we can control the game.

If we can force Pritchard to beat us, this game will most likely be ours. Similar to Masoli, also, he can scramble. He rushed for almost 50 yards against USC. But passingwise, he was 9-21 for about 100 yards.

Tavita Pritchard vtai grfx.cstv.com

RECEIVING	GP	No.	Yards	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Whalen, Ryan	11	36	438	12.2	1	30	39.8
Baldwin, Doug	11	20	269	13.4	3	61	24.5
Gunder, Austin	11	15	123	8.2	1	18	11.2
Kimble, Anthony	11	12	88	7.3	1	15	8.0
Gerhart, Toby	11	11	100	9.1	0	21	9.1

As to be expected with the QB situation at Stanford, there are not great WR numbers. The leader, Whalen, averages less than 40 yards a game. Whalen leads the team with 36 receptions. I think there are like 4 WRs on Arizona with more than that. If these guys are beating us on Saturday, it means things have broken down. And bad.

Ryan Whalen via grfx.cstv.com

Ok, like GoDucks.com the Stanford website is freaking out. I've written the bottom portion out two times and it deletes it twice. Damn you, Stanford! You've rejected me yet again. So, I'll try to summarize my thoughts:

1. Arizona ran all over us, because we had to respect the pass so much. We were able to control Oregon, because we didn't need to respect their pass. On that spectrum, Stanford is far closer to Oregon. So, I think that this is the type of offense we can control. Gerhart will probably get his yards, similar to how JJ got his in Oregon. But hopefully, they will be empty yards. If Pritchard and Co. are passing all over us, it will be a LONG day. But I feel that given our defensive prowess, that will not happen. Hopefully!

2. On offense, I predict we see a LOT of running. Stanford just gave 300 yards each to USC and Oregon in their last 2 games. Now, of course, USC and Oregon are great running teams, no doubt about that. But we aren't exactly slouches. Apparently, Best is as healthy now as he has been in weeks. Plus, if our offensive line can play more like they did against Oregon than OSU and USC, I think we can give Riley the time he needs to make throws. On the road, they were abysmal. Hopefully, at home, it will be different.

Look, I get it. It's been a long season. An up and down season. Big wins. Crushing losses. And with our 2 crushing losses in a row there, you feel uncomfortable about the game. We all do. Plus, its Big Game. I was there in 2000 and 2001 when Stanford should have smacked us. But we held strong, losing at the way end (in OT in 2000). Throw the record books out in this one. But looking at the stats, looking at all the games, I feel reasonably confident that Cal can take this one. Our D is set up to stop a run-heavy offense as we face here. Our O is set up to run the ball a lot against weak run Ds as we face here. Let's get that axe back. Let's do this thing. Go Bears!