SB Nation - Roy Upchurch

If College Football Had a Playoff: #16 Troy @ #1 Alabama

Jeremy Mauss — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:00:25 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

So, starting each week day from now till the title game a 'What if Playoff' will occur here with readers voting on who should win the matchup.

Today's would be Sun Belt champion Troy @ Alabama. An upset is unlikely, but the way Troy plays against big time competition who knows how close this game would be. Yes, a playoff would feature home teams by the upper seed to give them an advantage for a better season. The bracket and stats on each team are listed below.

Just make sure to vote and the winner moves onto the next round. Voting is open for 24 hours, and look for these to be posted each day at 12 eastern time.

#16 Troy Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Levi Brown	12	60.0	248	386	64.2	3264	272	8.5	19	5	46	19	1.6	.400	1	-	-
Dantavious Parker	9	50.0	10	19	52.6	87	9.7	4.6	0	0	28	154	17.1	5.5	2	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Levi Brown	12	46	19	1.6	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jason Bruce	10	2	11	1.1	5.5	0	20	260	26	13	2
Maurice Greer	10	34	244	24.4	7.2	3	6	59	5.9	9.8	0
DuJuan Harris	12	137	471	39.3	3.4	8	23	193	16.1	8.4	1
Josh Jarboe	8	2	9	1.1	4.5	0	14	236	29.5	16.9	1
Jerrel Jernigan	12	34	227	18.9	6.7	1	62	947	78.9	15.3	4
Nathan Nolin	2	1	9	4.5	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dantavious Parker	9	28	154	17.1	5.5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Chip Reeves	11	3	9	.800	3	0	22	363	33	16.5	3
Austin Silvoy	10	1	-15	-1.5	-15	0	13	182	18.2	14	0
Shawn Southward	12	100	574	47.8	5.7	10	10	94	7.8	9.4	0
D.J. Taylor	3	8	71	23.7	8.9	0	0	0	0	0	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Travis Boyd	2	3	41	20.5	13.7	0
Jason Bruce	10	20	260	26	13	2
Jonathan Chandler	1	0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Cherry	11	20	260	23.6	13	1
Andrew Davis	8	13	149	18.6	11.5	2
Tebiarus Gill	11	44	553	50.3	12.6	6
Maurice Greer	10	6	59	5.9	9.8	0
DuJuan Harris	12	23	193	16.1	8.4	1
Josh Jarboe	8	14	236	29.5	16.9	1
Jerrel Jernigan	12	62	947	78.9	15.3	4
Zack Marcum	12	33	315	26.3	9.5	1
Chip Reeves	11	22	363	33	16.5	3
Austin Silvoy	10	13	182	18.2	14	0
Shawn Southward	12	10	94	7.8	9.4	0
Cornelius Williams	11	18	320	29.1	17.8	2

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Sam Glusman	5	-	-	-	-	-	7	9	80.0%	9	9	100.0%	30
Michael Taylor	8	-	-	-	-	-	9	10	90.0%	38	40	100.0%	65

#1 Alabama Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Star Jackson	2	70.0	13	18	72.2	116	58	6.4	0	0	6	3	1.5	.500	0	-	-
Greg McElroy	13	93.0	192	315	61	2450	188.5	7.8	17	4	47	110	8.5	2.3	1	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	3	16	108	36	6.8	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terry Grant	7	40	166	23.7	4.2	3	3	47	6.7	15.7	0
Mark Ingram	13	249	1542	118.6	6.2	15	30	322	24.8	10.7	3
Star Jackson	2	6	3	1.5	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julio Jones	12	2	4	.300	2	0	42	573	47.8	13.6	4
Marquis Maze	10	4	7	.700	1.8	0	30	519	51.9	17.3	2
Greg McElroy	13	47	110	8.5	2.3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Trent Richardson	13	126	642	49.4	5.1	6	14	107	8.2	7.6	0
Roy Upchurch	10	46	290	29	6.3	2	12	72	7.2	6	1

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Earl Alexander	3	4	52	17.3	13	0
Michael Bowman	1	1	7	7	7	0
Preston Dial	3	3	25	8.3	8.3	0
Brandon Gibson	2	2	25	12.5	12.5	0
Terry Grant	7	3	47	6.7	15.7	0
Darius Hanks	9	17	272	30.2	16	3
Mark Ingram	13	30	322	24.8	10.7	3
Julio Jones	12	42	573	47.8	13.6	4
Marquis Maze	10	30	519	51.9	17.3	2
Mike McCoy	3	10	149	49.7	14.9	1
Colin Peek	10	26	313	31.3	12	3
Trent Richardson	13	14	107	8.2	7.6	0
Brad Smelley	5	7	50	10	7.1	0
Roy Upchurch	10	12	72	7.2	6	1
Michael Williams	2	3	29	14.5	9.7	0

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Jeremy Shelley	1	-	-	-	-	-	0	1	0	1	1	100.0%	1
Leigh Tiffin	13	-	-	-	-	-	29	33	90.0%	39	42	90.0%	126

Poll

Who wins this matcup?

An early primer on the SEC Championship Game

outsidethesidelines — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:33:04 -0000

Enough about Auburn, the goal coming into this season was to get back to Atlanta for a rematch with the Gators and we have done just that. Obviously there are a lot of issues to address this week, so I want to go ahead and write a rough primer addressing many of them. Let's get started:

Pythagorean Wins

Many of you are aware of my research into the application of the concept of Pythagorean Wins into SEC football, and with the 2009 SEC regular season officially coming to an end this past weekend, we can now get an early estimate on Pythagorean Wins. I won't get into the nitty gritty just yet -- I'll save the 2009 Pythagorean Wins post for a later day -- but the highlights of this year's analysis is that Alabama and Florida are still a head above the rest of the SEC, Florida stills lead the SEC very narrowly over 'Bama, but the gap between the Tide and the Gators is much smaller than last year, and both 'Bama and Florida are pretty big overachievers relative to their Pythagorean projection.

Last year Florida outscored conference opponents by a total of 259 points, and the Tide did so by a highly impressive 140, but things are a lot closer this year. The Gators "only" outscored conference opponents by 125 points this year, and the Tide outscored their opponents by 123 points. That's a long way down for the Gators from last year, and now the margin of razor thin in terms of the two teams Pythagorean projections. The gap between the two teams last year in conference point differential was 119 points, and this year the gap is down to a mere two points. Had Leigh Tiffin converted on his partially blocked field goal attempt in the Iron Bowl, the Tide would lead in this category.

It turns out the Gators are indeed human, but...

The good news for those of us praying not to see a repeat of last year's outcome in Atlanta is that Florida is not necessarily invincible this year. Last year the Gators average margin of victory in conference play was roughly 38 points, and in terms of sheer domination, that was probably the most dominant team we have ever seen in the history of SEC football, and perhaps the most dominant we will ever see, well, ever. Those guys went through the SEC last year like Lawrence Taylor in Tecmo Bowl, but fortunately they have came back to Earth a bit this year.

On the other hand, don't read too much into that. Florida has not been completely invincible this year, but they did go undefeated and for the most part they weren't seriously challenged. Only Arkansas gave them a true scare, and they won every other conference game by 10 points or more. The fact that Florida hasn't annihilated teams at the same clip as they did last year says more to the reality that last year was a once-in-a-lifetime type season more than it does about any inherent weakness in this year's Gators.

A Vertical Element in the Passing Game

Some teams throw the football down the field. We don't. And some teams throw the football to their wide receivers. But we don't do that either. Or, more precisely put, we apparently cannot do that. Oh I'm sure we would love to, but, um, you know...

In any event, it just doesn't happen. We just do not throw the football down the field, period. Again Mississippi State we threw literally two passes all day further than fifteen yards beyond the line of scrimmage, both of which came on busted coverages. Against Auburn, once again we threw literally two passes all day further than fifteen yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And we cannot get the football consistently to wide receivers not named Julio Jones, either. Against Auburn not a single wide receiver outside of Jones caught a pass, and on the year our second leading receiver in terms of receptions (Marquis Maze) is barely averaging two catches per game.

Why is that the case? I really don't know because we don't have sufficient information. It's either a function of a quarterback entirely too quick to check down, wide receivers unable to consistently get separation, or some combination of the two. My gut instinct is that it is mostly on McElroy's shoulders because he does check down very quickly, but again that's all speculation, and unless you have the coach's film to get the birds eye view of the entire play developing, you really don't have enough information to adequately assign blame.

Either way, regardless of whatever the cause of this problem happens to be, it is something we have to get fixed by the opening kick-off in Atlanta.

Brandon Spikes... the game of his life on the horizon?

Speaking of the lack of a vertical threat in the passing game, Ted Roof and the rest of the Auburn defensive coaching staff altered their defensive gameplan accordingly to that and it paid big dividends. They stuffed the box and consistently committed a lot of personnel to stopping the run. They were putting a hat on a hat for every blocker we had, and still had enough to let middle linebacker Josh Bynes roam free. Not surprisingly, Bynes had arguably his finest day at the collegiate level, racking up 10 tackles plus a tackle for a loss. He roamed free on the interior running plays and Jonathon Evans -- starting his first game -- largely did the same thing to runs on the outside, and racked up 8 tackles in his own right.

Rest assured Florida will do the same thing. They have a much better defensive line and they will commit the resources that Auburn did. That will allow Brandon Spikes to largely roam free, and if that happens he will literally end up with a tackle on basically every single interior running play. And, as an added boost to the Gators, it will make the loss of A.J. Jones a moot point.

Again, we have to find a way to throw the football vertically against these guys. If not, Spikes will have a career day and our offense will be ineffective.

The 'Bama offensive line in pass protection... a weak link?

I know what you are thinking, our offensive line a weak link in pass protection? But, they've done a great job this year on that front, right? Well, in raw terms yes they have. We have only given up 14 sacks in 316 passing attempts, and that gives us an Adjusted Sack Rate of only 4.4%. That will surely be one of, if not, the best rates in the SEC.

But that is not necessarily to say that they might not be a weak link. Yes they have protected the quarterback very well so far this year, but on the other hand they have had an easy job too. We don't throw the football down the field, we check down a lot, and the ball comes out very quickly. All in all it makes life very easy for them in pass protection. But against Florida, that will likely be a very different story. We'll have to take some shots vertically, and the Gators have a great pass rush in the front four.We'll find out a lot about just how good these guys are this weekend.

Slow starts

No putting a pretty face on this one, slow starts have plagued us all season long and that is one of the major reasons we have been forced to rally from behind in the fourth quarter three times to remain undefeated.

Florida International led us in the second quarter. LSU jumped out to an early 7-0 lead against us. The Arkansas game was scoreless going into the second quarter. The Ole Miss game was 3-0 late in the second quarter. We led Kentucky only 7-6 with 45 seconds remaining in the first half. The Tennessee game was a 3-3 game midway through the second quarter. Mississippi State had two good drives to start the game, mixed with a three and out by our offense. Auburn jumped out to a 14-0 lead before our offense even managed a first down. Hell, we even went three and out against lowly Tennessee-Chattanooga.

The only time our offense has scored a touchdown on their opening possession against a BCS conference opponent was Kentucky. The end result of our opening offensive possession the previous seven games have been as follows: punt, interception, three and out, punt, three and out, three and out, three and out. Am I the only one who wants to drop an F-bomb when reading that?

In any event, starting fast isn't everything, of course, but slow starts can sure as hell get you beat. We've been playing with fire on this front all year long, and it may very well get us burnt in Atlanta. If we come out of the gate against the Gators like we have much of the year, we may very well find ourselves down 14-0 again before the game really even gets started. And to paraphrase Verne Lundquist from a few years back, there are few certainties in an uncertain worlds, but one of them is this: Florida ain't Auburn. And we had better not start as such come Saturday.

Arenas probably won't be a factor as a returner...

Javier Arenas has been an impact player for us in the return game ever since he first stepped foot on campus in 2006, and he even had a couple of big returns for us in the Iron Bowl this past Saturday to boot. However, we probably shouldn't expect him to have any major impact in the return game come Saturday. Florida has been nothing short of perfect in kick and punt coverage this year, and return yards have been almost non-existent against them.

On the year, they've allowed only four punt returns this year for a grand total of 13 yards. They are netting almost 43 yards per punt, and basically they boom it deep and high, and usually the kick either sails out of bounds or the returner is forced to call a fair catch. Likewise, things have been very good on kick returns as well. They only have nine touchbacks on 73 kickoffs, so Arenas and company will get chances there, but the Gators are averaging only 20 yards per kick return, one of the best in the country.

So, unfortunately, you probably shouldn't expect Javier Arenas to play a big role in the return game here, and it certainly doesn't seem like our offense will get any great help from this area. On the other hand, though, if our kick coverage issues continue, rest assured Brandon James will make us pay.

All of this Ingram v. Tebow hype, don't buy it...

I notice that many of the national talking heads are already billing this one as an Ingram v. Tebow battle, but don't buy into that talk. Tebow may be that near that important just because of the position he plays, but even so this game will be decided by the group effort of 80+ players, and to be so myopic that you look at only two players is simply overestimating the value of one individual in the ultimate team sport.

Certainly our chances of winning are better if Ingram can get healthy and play at a high level, but it's far from a death knell for us if he is a relative non-factor like he was against Auburn. Both Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch are fine players in their own right, and the drop-off from Ingram to them isn't very much. There are more important issues out there that will likely decide this game other than the Ingram situation.

Uncharted Waters

All in all, you have to keep in mind that this is a very hard game to project because this game is uncharted waters for both teams. Simply put, Alabama hasn't played a team yet that is anywhere near as good as Florida. Florida hasn't played a team that is anywhere near as good as Alabama.

The best team 'Bama has faced all season is probably either LSU or Ole Miss. Florida, on the other hand, probably faced their toughest opponent against LSU, and after that their toughest opponent may very well have been 7-5 Arkansas in Gainesville. So, again, this is uncharted territory for both squads, and this makes this game very difficult to project. There is probably a lot more inherent unpredictability in a game like this than there are in most others.

Want Meyer to go to Notre Dame?

Okay, so you want Urban Meyer to go to Notre Dame, right? Well, if you want that to be the case, you had better find a way to beat Florida on Saturday. Think about it this way... Notre Dame is probably going to fire Charlie Weis any day now, and we might even get official word today. But if Florida wins this Saturday, Meyer will be in the BCS Championship Game yet again, and Notre Dame won't even get a legitimate chance to talk to him until January 9th. In real terms, that means the Irish will probably just move on in the next couple of weeks and hire someone like Brian Kelly.

Now, admittedly, I really don't think there is much of any real chance of Meyer going to South Bend anyway. Oh I'm sure the powers that be at Notre Dame will kick the tires on him a bit -- they will definitely do that, and it would be idiotic if they didn't -- but I'd still be really surprised to see him leave Gainesville. Nevertheless, though, if you want that to even remain a viable option, you've got to find a way to knock off Florida on Saturday. Notre Dame is probably the only job that Meyer would leave Florida for, and If the Gators win in Atlanta for the second year in a row, you can guarantee that Meyer will be in Gainesville another four or five years at a minimum.

The Beautiful Symmetry of Roy Upchurch

kleph — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:13:46 -0000

With just 1:24 left in the game yesterday and Alabama on the 4-yard-line, Coach Saban made a last-second change of the play. Instead of the expected run, he dialed up a play-action pass which Greg McElroy easily put in the waiting hands of Senior running back Roy Upchurch. It proved to be not only the go-ahead points but the decisive score in the game.

And as the final touchdown of the Crimson Tide's undefeated 2009 regular season, it was also supremely fitting. If you recall, the season began way back on Sept. 5 in Atlanta against Virginia Tech. With 3:09 left in the second quarter, Upchurch ran for 19 yards and plowed over a Hokie defender to for a score - the very first touchdown of the 2009 campaign.

Senior Day in Bryant-Denny

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:00:26 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

Kentucky running back Moncell Allen is tackled by Senior Eryk Anders, bottom, Senior Javier Arenas (28) and Rolando McClain (25) during the first half of the Crimson Tide's victory at Kentucky.

View full size photo »

Saturday morning in Tuscaloosa will feature more than just the game against Tennessee-Chattanooga, for Saturday will also bring Senior Day, and for the senior class this will be their final game in Bryant-Denny Stadium. After spending years and years performing at 100 Bryant Drive, this will be the final time that this senior class will strap it up in front of the home crowd.

Given such an occasion, I think it's only fitting that we should pause for a moment and take a bit of reflection on this class and just how they got here. Things haven't always been easy for this group, and far from it in fact it has almost always been difficult. Most of them weren't very highly-touted recruits, and most of them signed with Alabama when our program was struggling. Adversity has really been a constant for them almost throughout their entire time at the Capstone, and what these men overcame to reach this level should not be forgotten.

Eryk Anders was a one-star recruit coming out of San Antonio that played nose guard in high school at a mere 195 pounds. He didn't get a single offer before Alabama swept in late, and was actually planning on being a walk-on at Ole Miss before Alabama came along in late June of 2005. Coach Saban himself didn't think he'd ever be a contributor when he arrived, and Anders actually told his father he was going to transfer in his hotel room the night of the 2007 Independence Bowl. His father encouraged him to stick with his commitment and get his degree, and he died later that night in his sleep with a heart attack. And Anders not only stuck around, but he came out of nowhere to thrive.

Cory Reamer was a two-star safety out of Hoover who drew little interest from most BCS conference schools. He actually grew up an Auburn fan, but the Tigers signed two more highly-touted safety prospects in the previous class -- Tony Bell and Lorenzo Ferguson, both of which eventually became busts -- and never really gave Reamer much of a look. He signed with Alabama, and then proceeded to blow out his left knee as a true freshman, and when Saban arrived he looked to be the epitome of a player that would get caught in the crunch of systems turnover. Yet Reamer turned into a starter at outside linebacker on an elite defense.

Mike Johnson was a two-star offensive lineman out of Pensacola. He participated on the camp circuits, but no one really ended up biting. Alabama offered and he was Tuscaloosa bound, which was just about the only major school recruiting him. He came out of nowhere in 2007, and will finish his career as a three-year starter and an All-SEC player. A lucrative career in the NFL awaits him when his tour of duty in Tuscaloosa comes to an end.

Javier Arenas was a late signee in the 2006 class. His only other offers were from Florida Atlantic and Florida International, and not only was he not a big deal on the national scene, he really wasn't even a big deal in his hometown of Tampa. Then UA special teams coach Dave Ungerer argued vehemently on his behalf for a scholarship as a returner, and after we missed on some other guys like in that class -- Peanut Whitehead, Tim Hawthorne, and others, most of which turned out to be busts -- we signed Arenas. We signed him thinking he'd be a returner, but since he has became arguably the greatest returner in Alabama history, and an All-SEC defensive back who will play on Sunday.

Drew Davis was a two-star recruit in the 2004 class. He played at a tiny private school, and drew really no interest whatsoever on the recruiting trails. Alabama, in fact, only gave him a greyshirt offer, despite a complete lack of depth along the offensive line, and more than a few 'Bama fans questioned his viability as a legitimate SEC caliber player. And in the first four years of his career, he was an afterthought. But in 2008 he burst onto the scene as a starter, and in 2009 he has been an All-SEC caliber player who has kept at least two five-star prospects sitting on the bench. So much for his viability as an SEC player, eh?

Others went through much of the same. Tyrone King was a walk-on transfer from Grambling... we never recruited him, but he decided to chase a dream anyway. Roy Upchurch has fought through no less than three major surgeries including two season-ending ankle injuries that threatened to end his career before it ever began. Mike McCoy turned down both of his home state schools to play at Alabama, had a redshirt year wasted by the previous coaching staff, and then watched arguably the biggest recruit we've ever had take away his role. Lorenzo Washington spurned his in-state Georgia Bulldogs for 'Bama, then endured a tour of duty at Hargrave, a redshirt year in Tuscaloosa, a major injury, played out of position at nose guard, and found himself relegated to the bench when Terrence Cody arrived. And speaking of Cody, he had to overcome poor academics and poor physical care of himself to be a star, but he conquered both obstacles. Marquis Johnson became the pin cushion for the entire fan base after he was forced into a situation that he never should have been in against Florida State in 2007, but he persevered and turned himself into a fine football player. Justin Woodall was put through pure hell when the hometown homers in Oxford realized he wasn't going to sign with the Rebels. Leigh Tiffin has endured more criticism than any kicker ever should. Ali Sharrief lost his role in the coaching turnover, but he remained a valuable contributor nevertheless. Colin Peek spurned 'Bama the first time around, but nevertheless still ended up in Tuscaloosa. Brandon Deaderick passed up on in-state Kentucky out of high school and turned into a starter at 'Bama. And then he got shot. Twice. And he kicked ass in the Georgia Dome four days later.

Obviously a lot of things have changed in Tuscaloosa the past several years. Most of these players actually signed with Mike Shula. When Lorenzo Washington and Drew Davis signed with the Tide, Alabama was coming off a 4-9 season, ineligible to participate in bowl games, and playing in a stadium that held all of 83,000 people. It had been a mere eight months since Mike Price was fired for his actions with Arety's Angels. Nick Saban, fresh off of a national championship, had signed what most LSU fans hoped would effectively be a lifetime contract to stay in Baton Rouge. Most 'Bama fans at the time were just hoping we could show enough improvement in 2004 to get somewhere like Shreveport or Nashville.

Now, though, Alabama finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum. Nick Saban now resides in Tuscaloosa, and we look to play for a spot in the national championship game for the second year in a row. At the very least, we'll end up with back-to-back BCS game appearances, and we may very well find ourselves back in Pasadena for the first time an SEC team has made the trek since Frank Thomas' War Babies wrapped up an undefeated season by crushing USC in 1945. Recruiting is better than it has been since the glory days of the Bryant years, and shows no real signs of slowing down any time soon. We've got more top-end talent and quality depth in Tuscaloosa right now than we've had since the late 1970's. And Bryant-Denny Stadium? It will hold over 100,000 people this time next year.

Again, the times have changed in Tuscaloosa, and we should all acknowledge the role that all of these young men played in delivering us out of the dark ages. Our newfound recruiting juggernaut has helped tremendously, of course, but realistically recruiting has a very long lag time before it translates into on-field success -- rest assured, even for an elite recruiting class, players like Julio Jones and Dont'a Hightower are very much rarities -- and if you are going to have success in the interim, you are going to need some otherwise unknowns to turn into high-end players in their own right, and that is exactly what many of these young men have done. It has never been easy for them, but they have persevered in the face of adversity and played an immeasurable role in rebuilding our program.

Moving forward, I have no clue where we will go from here. We will thump Tennessee-Chattanooga and these men will walk out of Bryant-Denny for the final time as winners, that much I know, but after that I really haven't the slightest clue. We'll probably beat Auburn, but who knows? Maybe we fall at the hands of Florida in Atlanta again, maybe we pull off the upset. Maybe we beat Texas in Pasadena, maybe we lose to TCU in the Sugar Bowl. Who knows? Only time will tell for certain.

Regardless of how the season ultimately plays out, though, nothing should take away from what this group has done. They have literally played an instrumental role in rebuilding the Alabama football program back as a national powerhouse, and all those who bleed crimson and white ought to be forever indebted to them for that. If we have had a better senior class than this one in my lifetime, I'm not aware of it. And, moving forward, we can only hope that the senior classes to come can legitimately match what this group has done.

Know Your Opponent: Alabama Crimson Tide

jeremyflint — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:35:22 -0000

I did a Q & A exchange with the folks over at Roll Bama Roll. Here is what they had to say. The Bulldogs and Tide kick off at 6pm Saturday night in Starkville. The game will be televised on ESPN. You can read my answers to their questions over at Roll Bama Roll.

1. Alabama seems to be playing games closer and closer as the season progresses, which is different from the early blowouts of non-conference teams like Clemson and even SEC West foe Arkansas. Are injuries becoming an issue, or is it just the competition is getting stiffer?

We've had season-ending injuries develop with a couple of contributors and one of the absolute stars of the team, but injuries haven't really been our problem, per se. Certainly we have had a ton of guys banged up with minor, nagging injuries, and that has slowed us down with the stretch run of the SEC schedule kicking in, but our biggest problems have been offensively. The passing game practically went in the tank after the Hogs left Tuscaloosa, and still hasn't entirely found its rhythm just yet. The lack of a passing game matched with our complete inability to convert in the red zone has just kept things closer than we would like in several of the games recently. To blow someone out you have to score a lot of points, and that's hard to do when you only score four offensive touchdowns in your previous four games.

2. Offensive production seems to be down in the past few games. I think McElroy's touchdown pass against LSU ended a 16-quarter streak with no TD pass. Did he finally come out of his slump against LSU?

Greg McElroy played better against LSU than he has at any time since Arkansas left. It was clearly a step in the right direction, and we certainly hope that he continues to improve as we close out the season over the course of the next several weeks. Without doubt, having both Julio Jones and Marquis Maze looking healthy and effectively over the nagging injuries they suffered earlier in the year helped out the passing game.

On the other hand, as I have mentioned several times this week, McElroy was far from flawless against LSU, and in fact made a lot of really bad mistakes. He missed a touchdown pass to Maze deep, missed another touchdown pass to Julio, threw a dumb interception in the red zone to close out the first half, missed a wide open Brad Smelley deep on a trick pass out of the Wildcat, held the ball too long taking a safety, and also made another dumb decision to throw the ball on the controversial incompletion / interception with Patrick Paterson. Furthermore, his stats are inflated greatly by the 73-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones, which being a simple wide receiver screen is really a play that most any quarterback would make.

So, again, he looked a lot better than he had in recent weeks and he did take a step in the right direction, but he also still did a lot of bad things too. It goes without saying that we hope that McElroy plays really well from here on out, but I'm really not sure anyone really knows what to expect out of him.

3. Everyone knows that Julio Jones and Mark Ingram are great offensive weapons. Who else does McElory have at his disposal for getting in to the end zone.

The two guys to keep your eye on in the passing game are tight end Colin Peek and wide receiver Marquis Maze. Peek is a great possession receiver at tight end, and he was actually the team's leading receiver prior to suffering a knee injury in pregame warm-ups against Tennessee (he'll play against you guys, but likely won't be 100%). Maze is actually the team's leading receiver in terms of yardage and yards per completion, and he is easily the team's best deep threat. He's a small, shifty guy that can beat you deep and make something happen after the catch.

In the running game, keep your eye on both Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch. Both have looked good in all three phases of the game -- running, catching the ball out of the backfield, and in pass protection -- but Ingram's general dominance and a high ankle sprain early in the year to Upchurch have kept their touches limited a bit. Both have played at a high level when given the change, though, and with Upchurch completely healthy now, both are guys to keep your eyes on when they go into the game.

4. Defense is obviously the strong point of this Tide team with Cody up front, McClain at linebacker and Arenas in the secondary. How will they match up against Mississippi State and Anthony Dixon?

I've talked about MSU previously as being a team that forces you to make some hard decisions at time with regard to how to respond to their offense. You guys spread the field, but at the same time really pound between the tackles in the running game. As a defensive coordinator, you have to either choose to play the run with your normal set and hope that the passing game on the outside doesn't get you, or play nickel and dime and hope that your interior players can limit the run.

For 'Bama, we're multiple on defense. Saban loves to give a lot of different looks and use players in a variety of different roles, all of which is the hallmark of his defenses. I imagine our coaching staff likes how we match up on the outside with you guys, so expect to see some stuffing the box with man on the outside, but again we're a multiple defense that gives a lot of different looks, so I would say expect to see a little bit of everything defensively.

5. I think the current line on the game is somewhere around 14 points. How do you think the game will play out?

The line is around 12 points now, and I think that is probably about where this game will end up. Before the season I thought MSU was going to be an absolute trainwreck, but you guys have been a surprise this year and have been very competitive. You've played four teams to date that are legitimate top 15 teams, and kept it close with all of them. I really expect the same thing to happen when we make the trip to Starkvegas.

My thinking is that you guys shouldn't have much success offensively against our defensively. That puts us in a position to where, unless we beat ourselves, if our offense can do anything whatsoever then we should win. My thinking is that there is a small chance that 'Bama loses this game, but by the same token also a small chance that 'Bama wins in a blowout. I'm expecting a relatively close, relatively comfortable victory for the Tide on Saturday night.

Running Back Success Rates vs. South Carolina

Nico2.0 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:22:42 -0000

I feel a bit strange writing up this week's RB success rate analysis. Deeming anything Mark Ingram did on Saturday as a "success" takes away from the splendor of what actually went down. Furthermore, deeming any other runs as unsuccessful makes me feel a little guilty even though the entire point of this piece is to look at things on a carry by carry basis. Mark, if you're reading this, I consider your night a 100% success, so please don't hold the number crunching against me...

vs South Carolina / 10.17.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	24	246	10.3	1	2	23	11.5	0

What can you even say about Mark Ingram's night that hasn't been said already? Not much. I will highlight some specifics though that are downright insane:

13 of 24 carries were for 5 yards or more
8 of 24 carries were for 12 yards or more
5 of 24 carries were for 22 yards or more
269 all purpose yards on 26 touches
A 10 carry 2nd half with 80% success.

Wrap your head around that for a minute. Over 20% of his carries went for 22 yards or more and we're talking about a 20+ carry game. Ridiculous. All six carries on his "miracle drive" were a success. An entire drive where the same player got every touch with a 100% success rate. Astounding. Call me guilty of hyperbole, but it was amazing to behold.

Upchurch is getting back into the swing of things and had a few carries instead of just being in for passing downs:

vs South Carolina / 10.17.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Roy Upchurch	4	27	6.8	0	2	18	9	0

Roy had a good day in limited play. No negative plays, 75% success rate and all three of those carries were for five yards or more. Coupled with two receptions out of the backfield it's good to see him getting more touches. Hopefully Upchurch can contribute more in the coming weeks.

vs South Carolina / 10.17.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	5	13	2.6	0	2	11	5.5	0

Not a stellar day for Richardson, but it didn't have to be with the way Ingram was running (and Upchurch looked to be running.) Two really solid gains combined with two negative plays and one no gain. Trent's coming along just fine though, so I'm not really worried about it.

We did have one running play from Maze that wasn't a success, so I'm not going to build a chart for that.

Overall, we had 34 designed run plays and 23 of them were successful for a team rate of 68%. Needless to say, it was frustrating we only scored one offensive touchdown with running game production like that. I'd like to think it's a statistical aberration for the offense, but it's hard to say (I still need to process the Ole Miss numbers) since we have been on a dry spell in the TD department lately.

Halfway Home: A Midseason Look at the SEC

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:00:54 -0000

With six weeks of the 2009 college football season now behind us, we can finally start to get a good idea on exactly what everyone is made of around the SEC. With that in mind, a few thoughts on some SEC teams:

Alabama Crimson Tide

I expected Alabama to be good this year, as did most others, but honestly I believe we've exceeded expectations in the first half, and we've done so in the face of some bad injury / suspension luck. Dont'a Hightower and Damien Square are gone for the year with knee injuries, and Jerrell Harris has yet to play thanks to an NCAA suspension. Moreover, we're a beat-up squad right now. Julio Jones isn't healthy, nor is Roy Upchurch, and Terrence Cody was limited to only about fifteen snaps against Ole Miss with some sort of leg muscle issue. Cory Reamer, in fact, left part of his ear in Oxford. And that's, of course, not to say anything of Brandon Deaderick, who was, you know, shot at point-blank range. Twice.

Despite all of this, 'Bama has played extremely well to date. The defense is every bit as good as expected -- perhaps even better -- and even with his miniature meltdown in Oxford, Greg McElroy has played the quarterback position better than anyone in Tuscaloosa in ages. The offensive line isn't the same in the running game, but it is perhaps a bit better in pass protection than it was a year ago, Colin Peek has more than filled Nick Walker's shoes, and the wide receiver corps has really taken things to the next level. Our win over Virginia Tech at a neutral site is probably the most impressive win of any team in the country, and a 22-3 thumping of Ole Miss in Oxford is still a quality victory even with the Rebels' disappointing season in mind. We haven't won by fewer than ten points all season, and really haven't been given a real scare since the early fourth quarter against Virginia Tech.

At this point, the sky is the limit for the Tide. We've established ourselves as the front runner in the SEC West, and we might even be able to lose a game at this point and still make it to Atlanta. A worst-case scenario right now seems to be a 11-1 or 10-2 season where we make it to the SEC Championship Game, but whether or not we can beat Florida is another matter. I think the Tide has clearly showed the muscle to do it, but we have yet to play a complete game to date, and that is exactly what it will take to get past the Gators. This team is a legitimate national championship contender, but we're going to have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot -- think pre-snap penalties, kick coverage breakdowns, questionable play-calling, dropped touchdown passes, red zone inefficiencies, etc. -- in order to win the ultimate prize. Until we show that we can do that, I'm afraid, this 'Bama team will probably "just" end up another team that wins a ton of games and likely gets a BCS bowl berth, but one that ultimately has no hardware to show for it at day's end.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Despite a disappointing early season loss to Georgia, this Arkansas team actually looks pretty decent. The offense is a very good unit -- Michael Smith is still the most underrated player in the conference -- and the defense looks to be improving slightly. I know neither Texas A&M or Auburn are special teams by any stretch, but to thump those two by a combined 49 points is pretty impressive regardless of how you look at it. With a 4-2 record right now, Arkansas will return to a bowl game this year, and Bobby Petrino is clearly doing good things in Fayetteville.

The real problem with Arkansas is an ungodly tough schedule. It's bad enough to have to play on the road at Alabama, plus South Carolina (the second best team in the East). But to have the terrible luck to draw Georgia and Florida on the rotational conference schedule, not to mention a neutral site non-conference game against Texas A&M, plus games against LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss? Good grief... they are the anti-Auburn, the pure embodiment of scheduling hell. You could be a great team and only go 9-3 or 8-4 against this schedule, and the mere fact that Petrino and company are likely to get back to a bowl game, in and of itself, shows you the progress that is being made in Fayetteville.

And, really, keep your eye on this team moving down the stretch. They thumped both A&M and Auburn, and if their defense can prove to be even somewhat formidable, they will be extremely tough to beat. They beat LSU a year ago, and almost knocked off Ole Miss to boot. Expect them to claim at least one of those scalps again this year.

Auburn Tigers

The Gene Chizik era has gone as well as could have been reasonably expected, thanks in equal part to both the production of the Auburn offense and the lackluster performances to date by those on the Auburn schedule. Gus Malzahn has produced an offense as prolific as any Auburn fan could have dreamed off, and opposing defenses have clearly struggled with assignment breakdowns. Likewise, the Football Gods have been more than kind with the schedule. Louisiana Tech turned out to be a bad team even by WAC standards, Ball State completely nosedived, Mississippi State is as bad as expected, West Virginia's fifteen minutes of fame are clearly up, and Tennessee looks little, if any, better than a year ago. The Auburn defense has been the worst since Terry Bowden roamed the Plains, but the high-power offense and the weak schedule have driven Auburn to a surprising 5-1 start.

Moving forward, I really do not think this team is a particularly good one. I think they are a solid, 6-6 caliber team, but again the Football Gods continue to bring gifts with the schedule. It's always good to draw Kentucky, at home, on the SEC rotational schedule, but Auburn gets an added gift this weekend with the 'Cats starting quarterback being injured and unavailable. Beyond that, Furman is a guaranteed win, LSU continues to disappoint, Georgia is looking at its worst year in a decade, and Ole Miss has failed to live up to preseason expectations.

Again, I don't think this is a particular good team, and I could still see them crashing and burning if injuries show just how little quality depth this team has throughout the ranks. Nevertheless, though, it's a fairly decent team that can take advantage of a weak schedule thanks to their high-power offense, and they look to be in position to do just that. This is a team that will at least get seven wins, and nine wouldn't be a total shock.

Georgia Bulldogs

Get your popcorn ready, folks, this one is about to get highly entertaining. After getting blown out by Tennessee, Georgia sits at 3-3 on the season, and that is with games remaining against Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech. Even if these guys can avoid upsets against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, they are still probably going to struggle to get above 6-6. At these point, these guys are probably headed to the "new Shreveport," whatever that is, and that's if they don't get upset from here on out.

Either way, this is easily the worst team of the Richt era and it's likely to be the worst UGA team since Donnan took over in 1996. The defense is not very good, the running game is non-existent, Joe Cox is a glorified game manager, and they have no real threats at wide receiver sans A.J. Green. What else can you say? This is just not a good football team, period.

With all of that in mind, again, get your popcorn ready. This is Richt's ninth year in Athens, and he's entering uncharted territory. Few SEC coaches last this long, and the few that do are reeling and running out of steam at this point. Look at Fulmer at Tennessee, Tuberville at Auburn, and Nutt at Arkansas, just to name a few. And it certainly seems like Richt fits that mold as well. The fanbase is going nuts, they want lots of assistants fired, and many are openly questioning whether or not Richt can ever get the job done. This one will get interesting. That preseason #1 ranking feels like it was decades ago, doesn't it?

LSU Tigers

A 5-1 start and a top ten ranking to start the season, so things are all well in Baton Rouge, right? Not really. This team has zero quality wins to date, and frankly they are just fortunate to not be 3-3 with losses to Mississippi State and Georgia. This team will beat Tulane, and will probably beat Auburn, so they are likely to go into Tuscaloosa with a 7-1 record and a top ten ranking, but things just aren't right with this team, and I really don't know what's wrong.

LSU obviously has an ungodly amount of talent on hand, but it's not really working. Jordan Jefferson may not be Mr. Pick Six, but he cannot throw the football down the field, and the passing game is nothing special with him in. The offensive line is struggling up front, and without a line blowing defenses out of the water, suddenly guys like Charles Scott look pretty average. The defense looks pretty good, but who really knows about them? They have played only one good offense to date (Florida), and while only allowing 13 points looks nice on paper, realistically Tebow was not playing anywhere near his usual level, and the Florida offense was more conservative than Roy Moore.

Moreover, with all of the talk of the 2007 Florida game recently, it should be pointed out that this team really hasn't played well since Jacob Hester converted those umpteen fourth down opportunities. Since that victory, national championship and all, LSU is a combined 9-8 in SEC play, and the wins have generally came in close games against bad teams. The combined record of those opponents in the nine wins is a mere 40-50, and six of those nine victories came by a touchdown or less, which includes three come-from-behind wins in the final two minutes, plus a goal line stand in the waning seconds. The other three victories came by an average of 13.6 points, and the combined conference record of those three opponents is a laughably low 2-17. And that is from a team that led the SEC, by a wide margin, in both 2007 and 2008 in fumble luck. Again, I don't care that they won a national championship in 2007, these guys haven't played good football in two years now.

I really don't know what to make of this team. Again, like I said, they'll probably go into Tuscaloosa 7-1 and near a top five ranking, but I don't know that they are really any good. They've got the raw talent to go off and play extremely well, but that's not a given, so who knows? I do think they averted complete disaster by squeaking out games against MSU and Georgia, but for a team with so much talent and an unstoppable recruiting juggernaut, it certainly does feel that they are just barely hanging on with a cupcake OOC schedule and a couple of lucky breaks in close games against bad teams, doesn't it?

Kentucky Wildcats

With three straight bowl victories in the bag, Rich Brooks looks like he could somehow take the 'Cats to the promised land a fourth time in 2009. To be sure, the 2-3 record to date is disappointing, but hardly shocking. With Alabama and Florida on the schedule early, at best they figured to be 3-2 at this point. They gave South Carolina a legitimate run for their money, and a win there would have almost guaranteed a return trip to the postseason, but alas it was not to be.

Nevertheless, Kentucky still has a solid, achievable route to a bowl game. Louisiana-Monroe and Eastern Kentucky should yield two easy wins, and then the 'Cats get the two worst teams in the SEC with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Even if the 'Cats slip up somewhere along those lines, they still have a few chances at some upsets. They've played well to date, and will be favored in four of their remaining seven games, and while they will be underdogs in the other three -- at Auburn, at Georgia, and Tennessee -- Kentucky will have a legitimate chance of winning each time out. I think the smart money is still on UK ending up 7-5 or 6-6 and making it back to the postseason yet again.

Ole Miss Rebels

Colonel Reb is pretty much as overrated as I expected them to be all along in terms of contending for the SEC West. The real question for this team, now, is where do they go from here? Given how they have played to date, this team could easily lose another three games unless they improve. On the other hand, they could rally like last year and still get a good bowl game. They cannot win the West for themselves, but they sure as hell can spoil any chance either LSU or Auburn has left. Truth be told, as of right now, 'Bama fans have few better friends than Ole Miss. If they can beat LSU in Oxford, that practically clinches 'Bama the SEC West regardless of what happens in the Alabama v. LSU game.

As a more general point, will Ole Miss ever win the SEC in our lifetime? Clearly this was their only shot for now... bringing in a solid, proven coach after a recruiting guru filled the roster with raw talent, but obviously it's not to be, and Nutt will never win it in Oxford. He couldn't do it in Fayetteville, and with the lack of recruiting success he is having at Ole Miss, his Rebels are moving in the wrong direction. It just isn't happening, folks.

The last time Ole Miss won the SEC was in 1963 -- 46 years ago -- days after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. My father was seven at the time, and I am currently moving closer to 30 than I am 20, and Ole Miss has never even came close to winning it in my lifetime. So, again, I ask, will we ever see Ole Miss win the SEC in our lifetime, or is this going to be like waiting on the Cubs to win the World Series?

Mississippi State Bulldogs

I've long gone on the record as being a fan of the Dan Mullen hire, and I think he has done pretty well in Starkville to date. The offense is coming along a lot quicker than I expected, and he almost pulled off a massive upset against LSU a couple of weeks back. True freshman Chad Bumphis has impressed at wide receiver, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Tyler Russell can do at quarterback in the future.

Of course, though, in the harsh light of reality, life is never easy for the lovable Bullies. With a loss to Houston, MSU is now probably looking at a 3-9 campaign, and that's if they can beat Middle Tennessee on the road in what many expect to be a pretty close game (Vegas has MSU as only a three point favorite). Mullen is effectively fighting the impossible fight in Starkville, and his efforts won't pay any short term dividends. I guess all you can say is that, at least, they beat Vandy and aren't the worst team in the conference, which is what most expected.

South Carolina Gamecocks

If I had to wager, I would say the Gamecocks are perhaps one of the toughest teams to judge right now. The opener against North Carolina State was ugly, and losing to Georgia at this point is likewise far from pretty. On the other hand, the win over Ole Miss was impressive -- and the game wasn't as close as the scoreboard indicated -- and the victory over a relatively decent Kentucky team was fairly impressive.

I actually think this has the pure potential to be the best team Spurrier has fielded in Columbia since his arrival, even though that may not be saying much. They do have a great defense, Garcia has clearly improved, and the offensive line looks to be the best it has been to date under the Ol' Ball Coach. I think that as of right now, there is very little doubt that these guys are probably the #2 team in the SEC East. On the other hand, though, Florida ought to thump these guys once again, and beating 'Bama would require a major upset. They are 5-1 at the moment, and will get to six wins against Vanderbilt, but with road games left against Arkansas and Tennessee, not to mention a date with Clemson, getting above eight wins still looks to be a difficult task.

Tennessee Volunteers

I've never seen anything like Lane Kiffin, for better or for worse. The constant verbal jabs in the media. The changing of pullovers at halftime. The "play to lose with respect, not win" strategy. The trying to go for two with defeat certain and time expired just to reduce the margin of defeat and bump up their Pythagorean Wins. He's a unique one, no doubt there.

That said, I see little reason to believe the Vols are much better this year than they were a year ago, and in fact they look to be pretty much the same team to me. The blowout win over Georgia was nice, but truthfully it was probably more to do with UGA's implosion than the "turning the corner" that so many UT fans would like to make it out to be. Even with that, this team is basically in the exact same boat they were last year... a 6-6 team that will make some laughable bowl game so long as they don't get upset late by a really bad team. They ended up 5-7 last year when Wyoming pulled off the shocker, and that is exactly what they are looking to avoid now. Either way, it's hard to see this team being anything more than nominally improved over its immediate predecessor, and their final record will reflect that.

Vanderbilt Commodores

I enjoyed last year's showing by Vandy as much as anyone, and Bobby Johnson has done a marvelous job in Nashville. At the end of the day, though, it's still Vandy, and it's showing. Losing to Mississippi State, at home, effectively guaranteed that the 'Dores would be the worst team in the SEC in 2009, and after losing on the road against lowly Army, Vandy fans will probably have to wait until 2010 to get another win. With six games remaining against Georgia, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee, it's hard to see the 'Dores getting another win. A 2-10 finish -- including an 0-8 conference record -- seems to be the likely result.

At least there will always be memories of the 2008 team, I suppose. No one ever said that life as a Vanderbilt football fan was easy.

Initial Impressions from the Ole Miss Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:59:26 -0000

A few initial impressions from the Ole Miss game:

First and foremost, this is a big victory for the Tide. I know that some of the luster was taken off this game with Ole Miss' loss against South Carolina a couple of weeks back, but even so this game received lots of national attention yesterday, and it was the game that the pundits had circled all year long. To come out and win this type of game, on the road, is a big victory.
Aside from the fact that it was a big victory, everything becomes more impressive in context. We beat a top 20 SEC team, on the road, 22-3 -- a pretty good shellacking in its own right -- and truthfully the game shouldn't have been that close. As good as we have been, we continue to be unable to fire on all cylinders, and we left a lot of points on the board yesterday afternoon. It was a 22-3 game that, truth be told, should have been even more lopsided. No doubt about it... we absolutely trashed this Ole Miss team physically. It was like watching a heavyweight fight where one fighter is destroying his opponent, but cannot quite get the knock-out blow he wants until the late rounds.
The strength of the defense carried the day once again, and it's literally impossible to overstate the efforts those guys displayed. We got after Snead, completely shut down the running game, playing very tight coverage, and fought like hell for the football on every snap. If you were a coach putting on a clinic about how defense should be played, this is the game film you would put on as an example. I said this in the game thread yesterday, and in the sober reality of the day after I will reiterate here... this was the best defensive performance I've seen by an Alabama team since January 1st, 1993.
Offensively, well, that was another story, particularly with regard to offensive playcalling. It just never made any sense whatsoever to me, or just about anyone else for that matter, and it's just entirely too much to get into with an initial impressions piece. I'm going to have a full column up on this later this week, probably around Wednesday.
Greg McElroy easily had his worst day in crimson to date. I do think he was hampered a bit by poor play-calling, but even so he played poorly. He never looked comfortable in the pocket -- though the protection was probably about as good as you could expect against a front four like Ole Miss has -- and the way that he forced the ball to Julio Jones at times was almost laughable. He just looked like a completely different quarterback than we've seen to date. He honestly reminded me of John Parker Wilson circa 2006 or 2007 yesterday. I hate to be so negative about the kid, but... 43% completion percentage, 4.3 yards per attempt... all the crimson Kool-Aid in the world doesn't make that look good. It goes without saying that McElroy needs to play a lot better moving forward.
That said, it just shows you good of an overall team we have when we can have such, um, shall we say "questionable" play-calling and quarterback play, and still win in a romp over a quality SEC team on the road. Teams that could do this are very much few and far between.

Mark Ingram had an incredible day all the way around. He ran over 170 yards on the ground, and had a big catch out of the backfield for a first down. He's really turning himself into a complete back with his pass blocking abilities and his ability to catch the football out of the backfield. Honestly, the only real problem was that he just didn't get the ball enough. The 28 carries is really deceptive when showing how we used him, because so many of those carries came very late when we were running the clock.

Cory Reamer had a career day, easily his best day in crimson. He looked a lot better at strongside linebacker, and he was a special teams standout with two huge plays. Likewise, Kareem Jackson had easily his best day to date. He looked like a legitimate shutdown corner yesterday, and that is the best performance we've had from a corner in ages.

Robby Green is getting almost no publicity, but he is doing an outstanding job at safety. He forced a turnover on a well-timed safety blitz, and he continues to have a knack forcing big incompletions downfield by ripping the ball out. He isn't getting much attention, but he is playing a lot of snaps and is making some big plays. He has quickly turned into a fine player. Glad we have him for three more years.

Is there a more underrated player in the conference than Lorenzo Washington? He starts on a defense where the starter designation alone more than justifies your plate at the table, and he's playing damn well. He's tough against the run, and he's probably our most underrated pass rusher. He was just punishing Ole Miss offensive linemen yesterday. You've got to love Lo', no doubt about it. He spurned in-state Georgia for us way back in 2004, barely eight months after the Mike Price strip club fiasco, fought all through the Shula era, overcame injuries, played out of position in 2007, watched himself become demoted to a back-up with the rise of Terrence Cody, and somehow overcame it all. The young man bleeds crimson, simply put, and someone should recognize what he has done. At the very least, I bet he has some NFL scouts watching.

Give credit to our defense, Ole Miss did everything they could to get McCluster involved, and we made him a total non-factor. Nine touches for 37 yards and a big fumble. Goodness.

Jevan Snead yesterday... 11-34 for 140 yards, 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, sacked twice. That's a completion percentage of only 32%, averaging 4.11 yards per attempt, and a 43.4 QB rating. I know Snead is overrated, like I've said for ages, but still... that is one damn fine defense. He isn't anywhere near that bad.

I hated the fake punt call. Not because of the ball, but because we absolutely wasted a good, converted fake punt. You pick up a big fake punt, and four plays later Fitzgerald is punting it out of the back of the end zone. It was a huge risk that basically got us nothing. Hate to see that.

The Trent Richardson fumble late was disappointing, but I'm not complaining. It was a good strip by the Ole Miss defender, and in all fairness it was a good run too. He's played fine at tailback this year, and he'll overcome it. Besides, the kid can definitely pass block, always a rarity for a true freshman, and he may very well be our best player on the kick coverage unit. He blows people up left and right.

After the early drop, Julio played very well. The production wasn't there, but again it wasn't his fault. He faced double coverage all day, and most of the throws in his direction were just terrible decisions by McElroy. Besides, he got hosed on at least one pass interference call. He's not 100%, but he's still unreal good.

Emmanuel Stephens played a fine game for Ole Miss today. We couldn't block him off the edge. And he's a back-up, which ought to tell you how good the rest of the Ole Miss defensive end rotation is. Thank goodness he's a senior.

Speaking of senior Ole Miss defensive ends, thank God Greg Hardy is finally gone. After three years, our long crimson nightmare is finally over. And the scary thing is, he's that tough to stop and clearly not 100%. If he ever gets completely healthy, he'll fill a graveyard with quarterbacks.

Lots of odd stuff today from 'Bama, play-calling aside. Why was there so little Terrence Cody? He was there, and he played damn well when he was in, but he barely played. He generally wasn't even in the game in obvious run situations, which is his specialty. I have no clue there. And what about Roy Upchurch, where was he? As much as we threw the ball, you would think he would get some time considering he is our best pass blocking back and our best receiver out of the backfield, but he never got off the bench. All in all, lots of odd stuff in Oxford.

Colin Peek... great catch early, but it went south quickly. He dropped a big touchdown pass, and cost us about 50 yards of field position on a holding on an Arenas' kick return. He's played great at times, but poorly at times too. If nothing else, he leads the team with dropped touchdown passes with three.

We are the kinds of pre-snap penalties on offense. I'm serious, we ought to get a trophy created for ourselves. Nothing gets you beat like pre-snap penalties on offense, and we are addicted to them.

Along those same lines, the red zone efficiency is terrible. Or better yet, I should say that red zone efficiency is decent. We do fine inside the 20, it's inside the 10 that we decide we're going to do everything in our power to keep from getting in the end zone.

P.J. Fitzgerald has looked much better this year on the whole, but he is still killing us with his inability to pin teams up deep. He's the king of hitting a 48-yard punt from the opponent 42-yard line. Unless Fitzgerald can do a lot better soon in this regard, we need to get a lot more aggressive in terms of going for it on fourth down. These punts netting 15 or 20 yards are killing us.

Big day from Leigh Tiffin today. I'm traditionally a big critic of Tiffin -- and I think rightly so -- but he did a good job today. He went 5-5 today, and while several weren't pretty, they got the job done. He came up big today, and if he had struggled, we would have been in a world of hurt. Kudos, Leigh.

Dear Pat Patterson and Bobby Massie, do you still feel good about picking Ole Miss? I hope you now understand why five-star recruits generally don't choose schools that haven't won their conference since the week after JFK got shot.

And speaking of Ole Miss' future, this team is going to be an absolute shell of its current self when it returns to Tuscaloosa next year. Snead returns, but from my count they are going to lose something like 14 starters. Jerry, Hodge, McCluster, Tillman, Hardy, Trahan, Green, Vaughn, and Lewis will all be gone, plus a lot of other starters on the offensive line. Anything can happen in any game, of course, but we've beat Ole Miss six straight years now, and this was clearly their best chance to get us for quite a few years. The Orgeron talent is quickly going away, and the recruiting hasn't been at a high enough level to not have a drop-off in the coming years. This was this their year -- both for beating us, and getting to Atlanta -- and we roughed 'em up good.

All in all, we still haven't played a complete game to yet. We're beating ourselves with dumb penalties, poor decision-making, and leaving points on the board. Nevertheless, we legitimately look this good even when not firing on all cylinders? All you can say is that we are one hell of a team, period. And if we ever can truly get it all together, we are absolutely going to smoke people.

Running Back Success Rates vs. Kentucky

Nico2.0 — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 22:06:00 -0000

You know the drill, but for those of you that might be tuning in for the first time, an individual carry is considered successful if:

1st down: gains 40% of yardage needed
2nd down: gains 60% of yardage needed
3rd & 4th down: gains 100% of yardage needed

We didn't hit Kentucky with our normal assault of four backs getting multiple carries. Upchurch got a carry and McElroy did a QB sneak and Maze took a handoff, but otherwise, it was Ingram and Richardson doing the work on the ground. First up, Mark Ingram:

vs Kentucky / 10.3.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	22	140	6.4	2	1	6	6	0

They way we sliced through Kentucky's defense on the opening drive, I thought it was going to be a track meet all day and that we would run at will and easily rack up well over 200 yards. It didn't quite pan out like that as Kentucky's defense stiffened quite a bit in the first half and made things tough on us at times. We did crack the 200 yard mark, but wouldn't have done so without PJ Fitzgerald's run off of a fake FG attempt. Anyway, onto Ingram specifically. He was put in some pretty tough spots in the first half where success was almost impossible on a running play (2nd and 10 yards or more for four of his carries....only one of which was a success.) Ingram and co. turned things up quite a bit in the 2nd half and the numbers improved dramatically. Glad to see that the offense can get better as the game goes along. Nice to see us still busting off some big runs. Ingram had five carries of 10 yards or more (two of which went for touchdowns.)

Next up, Trent Richardson:

vs Kentucky / 10.3.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	13	24	1.8	0	1	9	9	0

Richardson didn't exactly have a stellar day carrying the ball. Out of 14 carries, his longest was five yards and over a third of his carries went for 0 yards or lost yardage. Many of his carries came in the fourth quarter when we were thoroughly in "kill the clock" mode, so some of it can be explained away by everyone knowing what we were going to do. That being said, it still wouldn't have been a memorable performance even with those carries eliminated. The good news though is that Ingram was on, and with us having multiple quality backs, one is likely to always be on.

Now onto Roy Upchurch:

vs Kentucky / 10.3.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Roy Upchurch	1	13	13	0	2	0	0	0

Upchurch only had one carry: He gained 13 yards on a 3rd & 6 situation for a success.

Greg McElroy had a successful QB sneak and Marquis Maze gained 3 yards on a 1st & 10 for an unsuccessful attempt.

Our rate for the team overall was 41%, which is a dramatic improvement over the 23% rate we turned in against Arkansas.

Initial Impressions from the Kentucky Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:20:20 -0000

A few initial impressions after the Kentucky game:

From the outset, looking at the entire picture, the Tide simply did not play very well against Kentucky. Of course you should never complain too much any time you can go on the road in conference play and get an 18-point victory, but by the same token you shouldn't be so blinded by the scoreboard to not realize that we played poorly and that, based purely on the performances of the two teams, that this game should have been a lot closer.
Without doubt, Kentucky was their own worst enemy in this game. They had five personal foul penalties, a slew of dropped passes to open receivers, several incredibly bone-headed throws by Hartline (many of which resulted in interceptions), and that is not counting the last-second fumble to end the first half that resulted in a Courtney Upshaw touchdown. Truth be told, Kentucky beat themselves in this game more than anything else. The lopsided margin of victory was really the result of Alabama just allowing Kentucky to keep shooting themselves in the foot.
Offensively, our strategy in the beginning of the game really made very little sense. Kentucky never even remotely stopped our running game, but we decided to stop it ourselves by airing the football out. And making matters even more head-scratching was that we kept throwing deep, instead of trying to establish the short and intermediate passing game. And that strategy was even more perplexing given how Nick Saban talked after the game about how the strong winds made throwing the football so difficult early. I really just never understood what we were trying to do offensively, nor did anyone else, and our offensive play-calling was perhaps the most suspect it has been since McElwain arrived.
And speaking of the running game, I worried coming in that Kentucky would be able to shut us down, but our guys really answered the bell. Kentucky never really stopped us in the running game, and Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch combined to run for 153 yards on only 24 carries. Trent Richardson's stat line doesn't look very good because he got the workhorse duty in the fourth quarter trying to run out the clock, but again in meaningful situations Kentucky never really stopped us. The problem was, really, that we stopped ourselves by simply choosing not to run the football.
The offensive line did a very good job in pass protection. As I said in the preview, Kentucky could really get after the quarterback, and we largely neutralized them at the point of attack. McElroy was hit several times -- which is honestly a given for any team these days really wanting to throw the football a lot -- and he is clearly helping the offensive line out by not holding onto the ball too long, but even so our guys up front did a fine job. McElroy threw 26 passes yesterday, and was sacked only once. Moreover, thanks to McElroy's pocket presence, he limited that sack to only a two yard loss. Truth be told, protecting the passer is a joint effort between quarterback himself and the offensive line, but I do think it's clear at this point that McElroy and the newly revamped offensive line do a better job of it than John Parker Wilson and the group we had a year ago.
Good news on injuries... there were none. I did see Barrett Jones gimpy at one point, but he never left the game and looked to be okay. Few things in football are more precious than staying healthy.
The Wildcat... didn't see it a single time all day, to my knowledge. I think it's clear now that our offense uses it as a weapon -- and forces the opposing defense to prepare for it -- but for the most part we really do not see it as an integral part of our offense like many other teams do.
Earl Alexander came up with a huge catch on the touchdown drive late in the second quarter, and the redshirt junior continues to make good things happen when he can actually get in the game. The problem is he's buried on the depth chart by Julio Jones and Mike McCoy, and he doesn't get very many balls thrown in his direction.

Julio Jones... I just really don't know what to make of him. I really don't think he's 100% right now, and for much of the day yesterday Trevard Lindley got the best of him. That's no shame because Lindley is the league's best corner and a future first round draft pick, but it would be nicer to get Julio more involved in the game. We're doing just fine without him being a major producer, but it's hard to believe that through five games he has a mere nine catches on the year. Against Arkansas we really didn't get him involved that much, but I saw eight passes go his way yesterday, and it netted two catches for 13 yards. Julio's presence makes our offense much better simply because it allows us to get other players consistently isolated, but it would still be very nice to get some more production out of Julio.

Colin Peek finally put together a big game yesterday. He has been plagued by the drops for most of the season -- at least four by my count -- but he emerged yesterday as a big weapon. Hopefully he keeps producing like that.

Notice something eerily similar on that touchdown pass to Darius Hanks? It was the exact same play call that we won the 2007 Arkansas game with, except this time it was Hanks in place of Matt Caddell, and Julio Jones in place of Keith Brown.

Greg McElroy, in some ways, had his worst day of the year yesterday afternoon. Just like he did against Virginia Tech, he rallied strong after a slow start, but it wasn't his best day. Nevertheless, I'm not complaining a bit. The SEC has some tough pass defenses, and Kentucky may be the best one of them all, and even against them McElroy had a solid day throwing the football and completely avoided all big, negative plays. As a general matter, you can really ask for little more out of your signal caller.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, things weren't so pretty. Kentucky has an offense that will almost certainly finish near the bottom of the SEC in most statistical categories, and they scored 20 points against us. Making matters worse, we never really stopped them, and they should have scored more. Again, we never really stopped them, they only stopped themselves. Had Kentucky not been so hell bent on shooting themselves in the foot, they could have legitimately scored 30+ points.

Kentucky effectively had 11 possessions yesterday. Of those 11, they scored on four of them, four of them resulted in turnovers, two of them stalled out with four dropped passes / penalties, and the Tide forced all of one legitimate stop. In other words, Kentucky had 11 possessions yesterday, and on 10 of them they either scored points or stopped themselves with their own incompetence.

Obviously the turnovers were the biggest difference-maker defensively, and while it's nice to see we got the four turnovers, I'm afraid to say that we didn't necessarily do that much to force those turnovers. The three interceptions by Kentucky were the result of two unbelievably stupid throws by Hartline, and a pass that bounced off the UK receiver's face mask (i.e. a ball that should have been caught). The fumble was a heads-up play by McClain, but again Cobb was really not securing the ball properly. The point is that a lack of turnovers has been a problem to date, and while it was nice to see us generate four turnovers against Kentucky, I'm afraid they were generally of the bone-headed variety that we cannot count on future opponents to give us.

Without doubt, the single biggest play of the game was the Rolando McClain strip and subsequent Courtney Upshaw fumble return for a touchdown. That single play absolutely changed the game, and it would have been a very different contest had it not occurred. If we don't get that then we go to halftime leading 14-6 with Kentucky getting the ball to start the second half. After that play, victory was never in serious jeopardy.

The biggest thing that Kentucky did to us defensively was win the battle in the trenches. They didn't mow us over, but they did neutralize our defensive line. We could not get pressure on the quarterback, nor could we get penetration into the backfield in the running game. By and large, they whipped us up front, plain and simple.

Kentucky had a good bit of success running the football, but notice how they did it. They didn't pound the ball in the A-gap like many choose to do, they instead ran things a bit wider in the B-gap and outside the tackles. It placed a greater premium on the lateral quickness of our defensive linemen than usual, and likewise with the linebacker corps. And again, we really didn't respond. They racked up over 130 yards rushing, and we struggled to stop it. Expect other teams to do many of the same things Kentucky did.

So, to replace Hightower, we went with Reamer in the middle, Anders at Sam, and Upshaw at Jack. Chris Jordan saw some time, but Nico Johnson only played on special teams. And I'm really not sure how well things worked. Reamer wasn't really the problem -- as much as he will probably get blamed for it -- but Upshaw was a bit suspect at times in run support. He didn't play the run as well from the Jack linebacker position as Anders did in the first four games, and that hurt. Moreover, things just generally looked out of sync at times. Saban has said in the past that he generally doesn't like re-shuffling a lot of players, and there is a reason for that. Perhaps we'll see something else moving forward. I know one thing... that South Carolina game cannot get here soon enough.

The most interesting thing I noticed about Hightower's absence was that we seemed to be taking fewer risks defensively. With Hightower and McClain in the game at the same time, we were taking a lot of risks with blitzes because we felt the linebacker corps could still get the job done even if they were undermanned simply because those two were in the game. Against Kentucky, though, we didn't see that kind of risk-taking, and that may have been one of the reasons why we didn't rush the passer as well. Truth be told, of Hartline's 31 passing attempts, we really only had one sack, and that came after Anders put a great move on Zipp Duncan out of a basic four man rush.

Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke made our defense look bad. Period. We couldn't cover 'em, and we couldn't tackle 'em.

The pass defense wasn't great, but it generally played pretty well. Javier Arenas looked really bad on the deep touchdown pass Cobb -- seriously, Cobb watched that football for about three seconds and Arenas never was even aware the ball was in the air -- but aside from that things were good. Taking out that one pass, Kentucky completed only about 50% of their passes and averaged only about 4.0 yards per attempt. Of course, though, given how poorly Hartline played, that should have been the outcome.

On the whole though, being unable to stop the Kentucky offense, this was probably the worst defensive performance we've had since 2007. Sure, Florida and Utah did well against us last year, but they were great offenses. Kentucky did well against us yesterday, and they were a bad offense. Big difference there. Our defense ought to be fuming mad after watching this film.

The kick coverage unit... this has to be one of the worst I've ever seen. Yesterday was actually one of our "better" days, and still two of the four returned kicks went out to midfield. It's been five games of this and we've seen no improvement, and right now I really just don't see much of a reason to expect any better. If all that was required was a simple fix, it would have been fixed by now.

Best fact of the day? With the win over Kentucky, Alabama has an 18-2 record in our last 20 games. That is easily our best mark since the height of the Stallings era.

All in all, not the best day for the Tide. We didn't play very well, and the lopsided final score was more the result of Kentucky beating themselves than anything else. We clearly will have to play better moving forward. Of course, though, wins in this league never come easy, and in all fairness Kentucky is a decent team that will likely make a bowl game, so an 18-point victory, on the road, is far from shabby. We clearly need to play better, but more than anything else this game just shows how much Saban has changed the mindset and the culture of the program. At every point from 1997-2008, we would have been literally wetting ourselves with glee over such a victory, and now such a victory is met general criticism. The times have changed in Tuscaloosa, that much we know.