SB Nation - Will Oakley

The Great Debate II: The SEC Championship Game

cocknfire — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 05:02:12 -0000

Another big game, another debate. In this one, Year 2 returns to make the case for Florida, as Todd from Roll Bama Roll represents the Crimson Tide. The Team Speed Kills preview will appear this afternoon.

Florida opened the week as a 9.5- to 10-point favorite, according to Vegas. Are you surprised, and is that too high?

Roll Bama Roll: The only thing I'm surprised about is that they aren't a bigger favorite, really, what with all the (mostly warranted, sadly) hype that the Florida offense gets.

Year 2: Honestly, I am a little surprised. The Vegas Poll has Florida at No. 1 and Alabama at No. 5, and a ten-point spread between those two spots in a poll seems a bit excessive. At the same time, if Florida is really the better team, then they have a chance to run away with the game and cover that spread. This is why I don't bet on football.

Looking at the two team's injury reports, are you more worried about your team or less worried about the opponent? What, if any weaknesses, do those injuries expose?

Year 2: I am worried about Florida's defensive line injuries more than anything. Florida has no seniors on defense, which means the depth chart gets really young, really fast. With two interior linemen down, it hurts the ability of the line to rotate guys in and out throughout the game. With as good as Alabama's offensive line is, the healthy guys will need to stay as fresh as possible to keep battling.

Florida's modus operandi on defense has been similar to what it was in 2006. They don't force as many three-and-outs as you'd like, but when the other team starts threatening, they lock the opponent down and force a field goal attempt or turnover.

I'm not sure that the Gators can get away with that against the Tide's strong rushing attack. On the plus side, the secondary as a unit is better than it was in 2006, even if it lacks the singular talent of a Reggie Nelson. On top of that, no less than five linebackers have played at a starter's level at varying times, so the back seven may be able to make up for it.

Not to mention the secondary's improvement since last season.

Roll Bama Roll: One of the big keys to Alabama's success so far this year is that we've been incredibly fortunate with injuries. Just off the top of my head, I think we've lost maybe five starts to injury so far this year (Andre Smith and Marlon Davis missed a start each, Cody missed two, and Mike McCoy missed one), and the only injury issues we have at the moment are with reserve guys like Will Oakley (WR that really only saw time as a run blocker, out for the season with a broken collar bone), Roy Upchurch (great RB and the hero of the Tennessee game, but still the third back in the rotation, questionable with neck spasms but carried twice in the Iron Bowl and could probably go if needed), and Earl Alexander (another WR that really hasn't seen a lot of time, questionable with a banged up shoulder but could probably go if needed).

I am, however, concerned with any injuries that could happen during the game. LSU ran all over us with Cody not quite back to 100 percent, and with Smith and Davis out on the O-line against Tulane we had our worst showing of the season as far as blocking goes. We're still a very thin and young team, so ANY injury to a starter (and, in a lot of cases on defense where we rotate a ton of players, to key backups) is going to foul up the works enough that it could put Bama at a serious disadvantage right away.

Both of these teams have had unpleasant surprises at home in the last year or so (Alabama losing to Louisiana-Monroe; Florida losing to Mississippi). Be honest: Right after your team's disappointing loss, did you really think your team would be in the SEC Championship Game this season?

Roll Bama Roll: That's actually kind of a difficult question for me, because a disappointing loss like that this season would have definitely dashed my hopes for a shot at Atlanta, but since our loss came last season amidst the then-annual November skid, it only showed there were some serious issues going on with the Alabama football team and the ULM loss was just the biggest crack of the many, many cracks in the foundation.

Before this season started, I don't think anyone expected we'd go undefeated in the regular season and make it to Atlanta; most Alabama fans were pretty optimistic about improving to eight or nine wins with losses to at least Clemson, UGA and LSU (some of us, including myself, felt there was a pretty good shot at 10 because Clemson is, well, Clemson), and so long as the team showed improvement we would have been pretty happy. But I don't think our expectations were tempered by that horrifying loss, either. We were all concerned at the youth of the team, lack of depth defense, lack of explosive playmakers on offense, questions about the QB position, and etc., not "man, if we couldn't beat ULM we can't beat anyone!"

Year 2: I had my doubts about Florida going to Atlanta after the loss to Ole Miss, but they didn't even survive the day. Later that evening, Alabama obliterated Georgia to even up the SEC East standings. That game also provided a blueprint for defeating the Bulldogs and showed that whatever got into the water in Athens last season was not there this year.

All the problems I saw against Ole Miss were in large part correctable. The Gators were not going to fumble three times a game. They were not going to allow 86-yard touchdown passes every game. They were not going to come out flat every game either. They could adjust the blocking to deal with blitzes, spread the ball around, and shore up the secondary.

All of those came true, but it wasn't until after the win over LSU that I felt assured of the Gators going. I had been confident since before the season that Florida would beat Georgia, and I thought LSU was the last real threat besides UGA on the schedule.

If you had the choice of one of your opponents' players who would "pull a Plaxico" between now and the SEC Championship Game, that choice would be ...

Year 2: The obvious answers are guys like Mount Cody, Glen Coffee and Julio Jones. Don't get me wrong, I would shed no tears if they had to miss Saturday's contest. To take it in a slightly different direction while still being truthful, I'll pick Javier Arenas. He is a very dangerous return man.

Dangerous to both teams, of course.

Florida's kickoff coverage was shaky against the Citadel and downright atrocious against Florida State. Granted, FSU's Michael Ray Garvin leads the country in kickoff returns, but the coverage was downright bad.

I don't know if Florida can get the problem solved by Saturday, although you'd think so given how good UF has been at all other phases of special teams and that the punt coverage borders on phenomenal. If they don't, though, Arenas can make them pay with long returns. That then leads back into the potential issue with the defense I mentioned earlier, where I am unsure if UF can lock Bama down in the red zone like they have done to so many other teams.

Roll Bama Roll: Honestly, I don't want any of Florida's players to miss this game so that when Alabama wins, we won't have to hear "Florida is still the better team, they only won because Harvin/Tebow/Demps/Rainey/Whoever didn't play!" But since this is your game, I'll avoid the obvious choice of Tebow and go with Brandon James. Knocking Tebow out doesn't necessarily mean you stop the offense, because there is such a thing as a direct snap to any one of the ridiculously fast other members of the team, and besides, Ole Miss provided the blueprint on how to beat Florida: keep contain with your front seven and make damn sure your DBs don't abandon their coverage just 'cause it looks like Tebow might run. We have just as good of a front seven as the Rebels and a much better secondary, so he doesn't particularly worry me on that front. James, on the other hand, is a monster on kick returns and not having him around to set up the Florida offense with good field position every time we kick the ball would be nice.

Both schools were criticized or at least questioned when they hired their respective coaches: Florida because Urban Meyer's offense would supposedly never work in the SEC, and Alabama because the whole Nick Saban saga seemed kind of shady. Meyer's offense seems to work just fine, and Saban honestly does seem to enjoy coaching college more than the pros (as much as Nick Saban enjoys anything that doesn't involve kittens dying). Which coach has done a better job of proving the critics wrong?

Year 2: I would say this is the easiest question yet. Urban Meyer has categorically proved the critics wrong by having the top-scoring offense in the conference two years running. His offense clearly works, and there's no doubt about it.

The critics' complaint of Nick Saban is that he's a character who lacks character. While he hasn't done anything overtly shady in Tuscaloosa, depending on how you feel about oversigning recruits and talking on Web cams, few have let go of the footage of Saban telling everyone he categorically was not taking the Alabama job. It gets brought up every five minutes now that the coaching carousel is spinning.

I'm sure Saban has answered the critics to the satisfaction of just about every Crimson Tide partisan, but his reputation is still not that great nationally. Meyer has cleared all doubt in the national conscience about his offense, but Saban has not come close to clearing his name with the whole country. That will take many, many years.

For what it's worth, I don't blame him too much for it. If I had to deal with reporters trying to play gotcha all the time, I'd probably be pretty surly towards them too. Plus, if my heart was not in my job, I'd begin looking for another one in a flash. He could have handled things better, sure, but he made the best decision for himself and his family. I can't fault the man for that.

Roll Bama Roll: Those are really two different situations, so this one is kind of hard. Meyer's offense was questioned, sure, but in his case the proof is in the pudding; his offense works in the SEC, end of story. Saban, on the other hand, will always have the "I will not be the coach at Alabama" clip thrown back at him anytime someone wants to criticize him as a "mercenary coaching vagabond," no matter how many top recruits he lands and how many football games he wins. There's just no "proving the critics wrong" when the critics are criticizing the inner thought processes of a coach that they aren't inclined to believe when he tries to explain them anyway. Even if Saban coaches at Alabama for another 20 years and ends his career in Tuscaloosa, there will still be plenty of rival fans who hate the guy saying "He's a liar! He said he wouldn't be Alabama's coach!" -- so in that regard, Meyer has "done the better job at proving the critics wrong," though his was a much easier task.

True or false: Alabama will win if and only if its defense plays well, and Florida will win if and only if its offense plays well.

Roll Bama Roll: False on both. One of the things constantly overlooked in all the praise of the Florida offense is that their defense is playing some pretty good football, too, and a good bit of Florida's offensive success can be attributed to their defense and special teams. I haven't factored in the Florida State or The Citadel games yet, but after the Gamecocks gift-wrapped Florida's first 21 points for them (and with the UK blocked kick fest still fresh in my mind) I got curious and started looking at Florida's drive logs, discovering that roughly 40 percent of the time UF was starting their drives in opponent territory. That is just mind boggling, and it helps explain how they have had so much success in scoring. If you have to drive less than half the field nearly half the time you have the ball, you're going to get points (unless you're Auburn or Tennessee). So I think it's false to say that Florida will win only if the offense plays well, because their defense and special teams have been so good at creating turnovers and giving them great field position that they could probably afford an off night on offense and still come out ahead.

As for "Alabama will win if and only if its defense plays well" -- that's also a little untrue, but only because it isn't the complete picture. Alabama's offense hasn't put up near the same flashy numbers as Florida, but the grind it out, play smart and efficient football mentality has done just as much to help the defense as the defense has done to help the offense. In games where the defense has struggled some (Georgia, Ole Miss, and LSU in particular), the offense took the game onto their shoulders and slugged out some key drives to keep the other team's offense off the field and kill the clock. So even though I do think our defense has to play lights out against Florida to keep this thing from becoming a shoot out that we can't win, I think the bigger key to victory for Alabama is for the offense to continue to play as efficiently as it has over the course of the season.

Year 2: Todd is right that this statement isn't true in the case of Florida. Florida's defense and special teams can carry the team even if the offense ends up struggling. I don't know if they can for the entire game, but no one has been able to relatively stifle Florida's offense for more than a half since the first week of October.

I should also mention that he is right that the Gator offense has been given short fields by the defense and special teams. It is also true that against Florida State, who has a great defense and a D-line in the ballpark of Alabama's, UF had three touchdown drives of over 75 yards in the first half alone. They weren't garbage time deals. The Gators can drive the length of the field if needed.

The converse situation for Alabama is a lot less promising. If you have even just one player overpursue, Florida has four running backs in Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody who have the ability to gash you for 40 yards as a result. All but Moody could can take it to the house from anywhere on the field given enough space, especially so on the fast track of the Georgia Dome.

On top of that, Florida has four receivers in Harvin, Louis Murphy, Deonte Thompson, and Riley Cooper who are legit deep threats if you have blown coverage. TE Aaron Hernandez is faster than he looks, is great in traffic, and is difficult to take down. Any of the running backs, especially Demps, can be dangerous in screens too.

If Alabama's defense does not play well, the Tide will give up at least 42 points. Florida's first string defense has yet to give up more than 21 points that did not come off turnovers in a single game. That would then require three touchdowns off of turnovers for the Alabama offense to even it up in the event of a bad defensive game. While Florida turned it over three times against Ole Miss, that is unlikely to happen again. If the Tide defense doesn't play well, Florida will take the game comfortably.

Q&A with Roll 'Bama Roll

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:37:47 -0000

Todd at the outstanding SB Nation blog Roll 'Bama Roll traded questions with me over the email this week, and this morning is a fine time to put it up for all to see. The Kentucky at Alabama game is easily one of the more interesting games of this weekend in the SEC along with Auburn @ Vanderbilt (can you believe a Vandy game is "interesting?" Amazing job so far by the 'Dores) and ... well, nothing. Actually, I am looking forward to seeing South Carolina at Mississippi -- if the Gamecocks can win this game, my estimation of them would go up significantly.

But with regards to Alabama, I think you will find Todd's answers to be most illuminating. I consider Alabama football fans to be the only fans in the SEC that match the intensity and passion of Kentucky basketball fans, and you can see why below or just visit Roll 'Bama Roll anytime during football season and it will jump right out at you why I think the way I do. By the way, you can find my answers to Todd's questions over at Roll 'Bama Roll at approximately 9:00 AM or so today.

So without further gilding the lily and with no more ado, I give you Todd of Roll 'Bama Roll. My questions are in boldface, and Todd's answers are just below:

1. Knowing that 'Bama fans are as rabid about football as Kentucky is about basketball, I wonder if you could describe what being in the national conversation (and in a good way) again means to Alabama fans.

It's a wonderful, glorious feeling. Alabama fans have clearly been on tough times the past decade or so, and for the kids that don't really know or remember the glory days before the post-Stallings era began I can only imagine what this must be like. But for those of us old enough to remember them, it's been tough times and to be perfectly honest, it's nice feeling smug about it again. I'm sure I'm jinxing us into a three game skid by just saying that, but after hearing nothing but the constant chattering from our rivals about everything from "Alabama's time is past" to "Nick Saban is overrated" to "BEAR IZ DED WOOOOO!!!111", it's more than a little satisfying to look back at the last five weeks and think "eat it, haters."

2. People look at Nick Saban's salary and think, "There is no way he could be worth that much," but if Alabama continues to play this kind of football, that thinking may become obsolete. How much the sudden rise of the Tide changed the way Alabama looks at Saban through the lens of his salary?

We thought it was a bargain to begin with, actually. He's a proven commodity as a college head coach, he built an LSU program that had been wallowing in mediocrity for decades to two SEC Titles and a National Title, and he's known as one of the best recruiters to ever walk through a five star prospect's door. If he wasn't worth the money, he wouldn't have been offered it in the first place, and all he's done so far is earn every penny of it.

3. John Parker Wilson has been variously reviled and revered by Crimson Tide fans. Is Wilson consistent enough now to take the Tide back to the promised land? If not, in what area does he come up short?

Before last weekend I would have made the comment that he isn't hitting the deep ball well yet and there are still some concerns about how he'll handle an elite SEC defense, but so far the Georgia win was his best game. We only threw the ball 16 times (he hit 13 of them for 205 yds and a TD) in that game, but new OC Jim McElwain, who flew under the radar when he was hired because of the much ballyhooed switch to the high octane spread offenses of Dave Clawson and Tony Franklin at UT and Auburn, has really turned Wilson into a savvy game manager and concocted an offensive philosophy and approach that prizes brutal efficiency over gaudy stats and the idea of "explosive" plays. Considering that, Wilson is the guy to run it, and he's improved by leaps and bounds over his very up and down career now that he finds himself in a position where he can trust everyone around him to do their jobs as opposed to having to take responsibility for the offense all on his own shoulders. The o-line is blocking for him now, the running game is effective, all of his receivers are running clean routes and looking for the ball instead of slacking off is they don't think he's coming their way, and he's got a guy calling plays that he knows Wilson can make. The only knock we can put on him so far is that we don't know how he'll handle any real adversity considering the Tide hasn't trailed yet, and at some point we're going to find ourselves in a hole needing a scoring drive, and then we'll really know what we have in John Parker Wilson. From what I've seen so far this year, it doesn't concern me at all that he'll be the guy leading that drive.

4. Which player on the Alabama offense who doesn't get a lot of press clippings should we worry about? On defense?

That's actually a tough question considering the hype that has surrouned Alabama so far. I don't know if I can name one person on offense, but I will say that, aside from Julio Jones who has shown that he deserves every ounce of hype he's gotten so far, the receiving corps has really kind of flown under the radar with all the focus being on how well Alabama is running the ball. We have a ton of talent at that position, and those runs wouldn't be quite as effective if they weren't doing the stuff you really don't think of when talking about receivers (i.e. run blocking). Mike McCoy will likely sit this game (he tweaked his hamstring early against Georgia), and it's kind of a toss up as to who will fill in for him. Nikita Stover and Will Oakley are both seniors that are likely to get some increased snap with McCoy out, but there really isn't a significant drop off between McCoy and the next three or four guys. Our biggest strength there is, as mentioned before, they all play every down like the ball is coming to them and when you have three (and at times four) guys out there that are a threat to break something it really gives defenses something to think about.

On defense, our defensive ends have played a huge role but are understandably lost in the all the talk over Terrance Cody. Cody is the biggest reason (literally and figuratively) that the defense is doing so well, especially against the run. Saban's 3-4 is designed to take away the inside runs and force everything outside where the speed of the linebackers and defensive backs can shut down the cutback lanes, but until Cody arrived we didn't have the size inside to actually do that. But also key in this are the ends, who don't function like rush ends in a typical 4-3, but instead act more like tackles and are more responsible for occupying blockers and clogging up gaps. To that end, guys like Bobby Greenwood, Lorenzo Washington, Brandon Deaderick, and Luther Davis all struggled last year because they didn't have anyone in the middle taking up multiple blockers and it made their jobs almost impossible, but now that Cody (and backup Josh Chapman, who is a great NT in his own right and usually comes in on passing downs) is freeing them up more, they have become a very disruptive force and are getting a great push into the pocket.

5. Kentucky is currently sporting one of the top defenses in the country. The only common opponent between Kentucky and Alabama is Western Kentucky, whom Kentucky held to 157 total yards and Alabama held to 158, but 'Bama allowed more passing yards and UK more running yards. What, if anything, can we learn about the defenses from this common opponent that might indicate how the game will go on Saturday?

Not a whole lot, really. The Hilltoppers aren't a particularly good team, and any respectable defense should shut them down. The key part of that, though, would probably be that if they could rush against Kentucky, Alabama should definitely be able to rush aganst Kentucky. On the flip side, though, the Hilltoppers do run a spread offense that likes to throw a lot of quick passes, and the Tide's passing D has left something to be desired at times, so if Kentucky can get that part of their offense going they could have some success moving the ball with a steady dink and dunk approach.

6. Which Kentucky offensive player most impresses you, and why? Which defensive player and why?

On offense, I'm going with Dicky Lyons. There was some concern before the start of the season that he wouldn't be able to function as well being the primary go to guy, but he's put up solid numbers so far and is a great punt returner. For a team that's kick coverage has been very disappointing so far this year, he's someone that really concerns me.

On defense, first instinct is Micah Johnson, a very solid linebacker that could start anywhere in the SEC, but since he's likely out for the game I'll show some respect to Mr. Braxton Kelly, another great linebacker that looks like a beast of a pass rusher off the edge.

7. Kentucky has been perceived historically been little more than an automatic win for Alabama. Has this perception really changed at all in light of Kentucky's recent success?

Definitely, I know several folks have made the comment "thank God we didn't have to play them last year." Nothing is really a gimme in the SEC anymore, and there are plenty of people down here nervous about the prospects of a letdown game. We remember the upset of LSU last year, and we remember some close games the last time our teams met. In fact, last time we were in Lexington a lucky break on a busted punt (Bo Freeland was forced to kick again after an offisides and the second time he pulled the ball down and ran for the first after a UK defender broke free) was what finally got the team going and turned a very uncomfortable game into a convincing win. So yeah, we aren't taking the Wildcats for granted in football anymore.

8. Give me the 3 things that you think have contributed most to Alabama's sudden turnaround from last year.

First and foremost has to be the development of the upper classmen. There was the expectation that we were going to be starting true freshman any and everywhere on the field, but a lot of the battles for starting positions once the freshmen reported never materialized. Drew Davis grabbed RT and never looked back, Corey Reamer solidified his hold on the outside linebacker position that most thought was Jerrell Harris's the minute he walked through the door, Justin Woodall finally emerged as a solid playmaker at strong safety after struggling to learn the defense last year, Javier Arenas has turned into a shutdown corner when everyone thought Alonzo Lawrence would be starting opposite Kareem Jackson, and etc.

Second, we've been able to get production out of both the true freshman and the older guys where we have lacked depth the past few years, and even though some of our key backups are true freshman, just the overall upgrade in talent is huge. Last season there was a significant dropoff from starter to backup and, especially on defense, Saban rotates so many guys that you could almost consider the second team players as more co-starters than second team. Now that we are able to rotate guys without that dropoff it's really helped keep everyone fresh and is a big reason we are able to play such a physical brand of both offense and defense for the full 60 minutes.

Third, the production we've gotten from the true freshman starters has been key. Alabama really needed two things on offense coming into this season, and those were a big play threat at receiver and a tough, between the tackles runner in the backfield. Julio Jones has lived up to his hype by being both a downfield threat and a guy that can turn short passes into big plays, while Mark Ingram has become our red zone back because he's a tough yardage kid with a great burst once he gets to the second level, always falls forward, is just hell to bring down, and he's already shown that he is a complete back (has great hands out of the backfield as well and has also shown he understands the protections and pass blocks like a veteran).

9. What is the one most important thing on offense Alabama must do to win? On defense?

I can handle both of those with one answer; continue the physical line play. The biggest reason we are dominating opponents on offense is the fact that this is the best offensive line Alabama has fielded since 1999. We've had some great run blocking lines since then, don't get me wrong, but these guys are both run and pass blocking like a veteran line with two future first round draft picks (LT Andre Smith and C Antoine Caldwell) on it should. If you look back at the only game in which Alabama didn't completely dominate, vs Tulane, the biggest key there was that both Smith and Marlon Davis (RG) were out and the guys filling in for them were playing out of position. Tulane was able to get more pressure on Wilson than any other team, and once those two players returned against WKU, the Alabama offense was back to being as brutally efficient as it was against Clemson. So long as we can continue to control the line of scrimmage, the offense will be firing on all cylinders.

As for defense, I've already talked a little bit about how Cody has completely changed the way the line functions, and that has made things so much easier on the rest of the defense. Last year we were having to bring way too many guys to try and get pressure in the backfield, and our pass D suffered tremendously because of it because, well, we didn't have as many guys in pass coverage and we also just weren't getting any pressure on the QB. Now, if you look at the first half of the UGA game, you can see how Saban's defense is supposed to work. By being able to both shutdown the run and disrupt the pocket with essentially only the three down linemen and one linebacker (typically the Jack, the DE/OLB hybrid unique to the 3-4, but it can come from anywhere which is why this defense makes me happy in ways that it shouldn't), it gives the coaches all kinds of options as far as mixing up their coverages and blitz packages to keep the opposing offense off balance. All of that, though, is predicated on the d-line being able to do so much with so little, so as long as we can keep that up we should still be able to play very effectively on that side of the ball.

I want to thank Todd and all the denizens of Roll 'Bama Roll for linking and visiting us here at A Sea of Blue, and generally being great sports during the run-up to this game. I have gained a ton of respect for the Tide just over the past few days, and they have earned it with their knowledgeable discussion, passion, and sportsmanship. If the game goes as well as the pre-game blogging, we should all be in for a treat.