SB Nation - John Parker Wilson

The SEC West One Month In

Year2 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:30:22 -0000

Divisional Preseason Storyline

The balance of power has shifted from the SEC East to the West. The top three teams are so close as to be interchangeable. Watch out for Arkansas, who could make a second year leap under Bobby Petrino as so many other teams have made second year leaps under good coaches.

One Month In Reality

This division is stronger than the East, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as thought. Alabama is clearly the best team of the bunch.

Preseason Storyline

How is Alabama going to deal with replacing Andre Smith and the rest of the graduating offensive linemen? It was the strength of last year's offense. Can Mark Ingram fill Glen Coffee's shoes? How about that new quarterback guy, Greg McElroy? We've heard some good practice reports, but no one knows how good he'll be until we see him on the field. At least the defense is mostly in tact.

One Month In Reality

Alabama's line has done just fine, and its four-deep at running back is terrifyingly effective. As for Greg McElroy, he's already looking better than John Parker Wilson ever did. For all the talk of Alabama just needing a game manager behind center, McElroy appears capable of being much more. The defense has resumed its role of a marauding band of pillagers, but now it will have to deal with losing Dont'a Hightower.

Preseason Storyline

We will probably get to see the real Bobby Petrino offense now that the rocket-armed pocket statue Ryan Mallett is taking over for the Dick brothers. The Razorbacks were near the top of the conference in passing last year despite the situation under center, so it should be even better now. If the defense can shore itself up some, this team could be a spoiler.

One Month In Reality

The defense may be even worse than last year, as it made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana and turned the Crimson Tide attack into a big play offense. The unit has no hope of keeping things close when the offense isn't clicking. Mallett has been good, as predicted, and his arm is dangerous from anywhere on the field. However, it's not good enough to overcome an elite defense, and it's looking like it will be a while before the Hogs become a real complete team.

Preseason Storyline

Leave it to Auburn to fire a winner for Mr. 5-19. What were they thinking? The defense will probably still be good with Gene Chizik on the staff, but the defense wasn't really the problem last year anyway. Gus Malzahn was an intriguing hire, but what can he do with the hole at quarterback? Will his spread scheme transplant be rejected like Tony Franklin's was?

One Month In Reality

It's hard to argue with much when you're 4-0 and doing it with style. The offense has surpassed 500 total yards in three of the four wins, and is right at the top of the total and scoring offense ranks with Florida. The Tigers returned to their roots as a rushing team as well, as they are currently fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that Chris Todd is sixth in the country in passing efficiency. Granted Auburn has played only ~~one~~ two teams from a Big Six conference, so the optimism is tempered a bit. However, they couldn't have put up these kinds of numbers against air last year.

Preseason Storyline

It's time for Les Miles to show something now that all of Nick Saban's players have left. Hiring John Chavis should help shore up the defense, and the offense is probably in good hands with Jordan Jefferson. Everyone who has seen a practice has raved about the skill position players, so it's looking like a bounce back year for the Tigers.

One Month In Reality

LSU is 4-0, but only just. The team is being buoyed by its 23rd ranking in scoring defense, but it is also 49th in total defense, 53rd in scoring offense, and a dismal 105th in total offense. The thing is still a work in progress, with wins over Washington, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State coming a bit too close for comfort. You can make an excuse for all of them (UW was the longest road trip in school history; Vandy does that to all conference front runners every now and then; MSU was an 11 AM game on the road and a look ahead game), but this team is out of them now. A poor performance against Georgia will likely get them beat badly.

Preseason Storyline

This is it. This is the Rebels' year. They finished last year 6-0 and beat the national champs. Most everyone important comes back. Sure it will be tough to replace Michael Oher and Peria Jerry, but with a strong rest of the D-line and the conference's second best quarterback, Ole Miss should still compete for a division championship.

One Month In Reality

Ole Miss does indeed look like the team from last year. Unfortunately, it is the one that began the season 3-4 and not the one that finished strongly. The loss of Oher is looming very large as the offense has sputtered early against Memphis and for the first three quarters against South Carolina. The defense has held up its end of the bargain so far, allowing no more than 14 points in a game, but until Jevan Snead and the offense get back on track, it will be tough to consider the Rebels a true contender to Alabama's throne.

Preseason Storyline

Hiring the offensive coordinator of the national champion, regardless of who that is, has to be considered a bit of a coup for Mississippi State. Now that Dan Mullen is in the fold though, we can't really expect much of him yet. Sylvester Croom, for all of his admirable qualities, never assembled much talent in Starkville, and conversions to spread option attacks seldom go well in the first year. A win or two in the conference would be a good year.

One Month In Reality

A 2-2 start for Mississippi State is encouraging, but it's even moreso when you consider that the Bulldogs could easily be 3-1 if not for the late game heroics of LSU's Chad Jones. MSU collected a conference win against Vanderbilt and looked good in giving LSU the scare of a lifetime. Mullen has taken Croom's offensive cesspool and turned it into the country's 25th best rushing attack. The game against Auburn didn't go so well, but otherwise things are looking up so far.

How Bad Was Alabama's Struggle with FIU?

Year2 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:30:16 -0000

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This is two straight years that Alabama has made a statement in its first game and come out flat in its second game. The general feeling I've unscientifically absorbed from around is that somehow this year's struggle game against FIU was worse than last year's struggle game against Tulane.

After looking into things closely, I think I know why that feeling is going around. I also would disagree with it myself, but your mileage may vary.

Perception

Last year at this time the question was, "Is Alabama for real?" This year, Bama was a preseason top five team. They were not supposed to ever look bad for a half against a Sun Belt team if you're preseason top five.

Another thing kicking in is FIU's reputation. Tulane went 2-10 last year. FIU, believe it or not, was a game away from bowl eligibility at 5-7. The Golden Panthers still got blown out by teams like Kansas and Iowa, but they were competitive within the conference and are no longer an instant 50 point win for any Big Six conference team. They've always been feisty even when they were horrendous, and the program is moving in the right direction under Mario Cristobal, but most folks assume they're still in danger of going winless year in and year out.

FIU: always been feisty, even when horrendous.

Isolated Stats

Alabama has had some trouble with kickoff coverage. Did you know they allowed a return for a touchdown against FIU? Horrible! Well, that's what the instant, gut reaction would say anyway.

Also, FIU jumped out at the beginning and scored some early points. Sure, they were doing something entirely different from what they did in the past, surprising the Tide defense, but hey, why not break out the torches and pitchforks? They've been getting awfully lonely since they were last used in January.

A Look at What Happened Overall

I'm going to break out the charts I used last week for year-over-year comparisons. As with then, sacks are removed from the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. TULANE	vs. FIU
Total Yards	201	531
Passing	73	241
Yds. per Pass	3.2	10.0
Rushing	128	290
Yds. per Rush	5.8	7.1
Turnovers	1	0
Time of Poss.	23:25	31:38
Sacks All.	4 (-29 yards)	1(-15 yards)

Alabama wasn't just better against FIU than it was against Tulane, it was much better in every way. I mean, look at what happened with John Parker Wilson last year. He threw for a pitiful 73 yards on 3.2 yards per pass and, despite playing behind the vaunted Tide line, was sacked four times. Take sacks out of total yards again Alabama is firmly under 200 total yards.

Against FIU, Alabama had its way. Greg McElroy got sacked just once and averaged a first down per pass. The rushing game stepped things up by more than a yard per carry. For whatever complaints you can have about the game, this is what powerhouses do in cupcake games. They run up huge totals across the board.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. TULANE	vs. FIU
Total Yards	326	252
Passing	232	213
Yds. per Pass	4.6	5.6
Rushing	94	39
Yds. per Rush	3.0	1.9
Turnovers	0	1
Time of Poss.	36:35	28:22
Sacks For	1 (-8 yards)	5 (-38 yards)

The pass defense is clearly the concern here, as the yards per pass increased even as the total passing yards decreased. But again, FIU did new things that caught Bama off guard. Any defense can look bad for a couple drives if it has prepared for something different than what the offense is showing. But, the Alabama defense did adjust. It allowed 95 yards in FIU's first two drives, 85 yards in the depths of garbage time, and 24 in between. That's how you fix what's wrong.

The rushing defense also was a lot better. Any time you can hold a opponent under a sack-adjusted threshold of two yards a carry, you had a great day. Also note the sack total that went way up.

So what does this all mean?

Alabama's game against Tulane last year fits the profile of a good but not great team having a bad day. Alabama's game against FIU this year fits the profile of a great team that had a rough start on one half of the ball. The kickoff returns are a legitimate source of concern, but not a whole lot else is.

As for the surprisingly lively North Texas (beat Ball State, lost by one in OT to Ohio) this week? Well, last year Alabama came back from the Tulane debacle and whipped Western Kentucky 41-7. A similar score versus the Mean Green would not surprise me one bit.

Initial Impressions from the FIU Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 06:51:37 -0000

Things weren't always pretty, but nevertheless everything generally worked out well in the end with the Tide knocking off the Golden Panthers of FIU 40-14 in the home opener in Tuscaloosa. A few initial impressions on the game:

After an impressive debut against Virginia Tech, Greg McElroy built on that foundation again today with his performance over Florida International. He ultimately went 18-24 for 241 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions, and frankly regardless of the opponent you can never complain when your quarterback completes 75% of his passes, averages 10 yards per attempt, and doesn't turn the football over. I'm sure McElroy will experience some pains later on down the road, but nevertheless he has gotten off to as good of a start as we could have hoped for, and frankly he's played better in the two games so far this than John Parker Wilson ever did at any point of the 2008 campaign.
The knee injury to Julio Jones has gotten a lot of attention, and rightly so. Obviously he must have been in some degree of pain for him to stay on the sideline, but I imagine it was more to do with the staff wanting to be cautious with him than anything else. Obviously we'll know more in the next couple of days, but the fact that he never went to the locker room, never went to get an MRI, an x-ray, or anything of the sort bodes well for the (hopefully) limited severity of the injury. Furthermore, keep in mind that Jones was injured on the end-around, and stayed in the game for several more players after the injury occurred. Again, we won't know anything definitive until another day or so, but for now I see no real reason to be concerned.

The good news is how well we've done in Jones' absence. After his critical drop on third and short early in the fourth quarter of the Virginia Tech game, we didn't throw in his direction the rest of the night, and the offense still put 18 more points on the board. Likewise, Jones really wasn't a factor today -- three balls went his way, and they included a nine-yard catch, a five-yard end around, and a dropped touchdown pass -- but in his absence guys like Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, Darius Hanks, and others stepped up to fill the void, and we still put up 40 points on the board (and it should have been more). Obviously there is no replacing a player like Julio, and it goes without saying that we all hope his injury is nothing serious, but it is comforting to see that we can still field a solid, functional offense even when we aren't getting any real contributions from the Foley product.
Speaking of other injuries, the knee injury to Damion Square is particularly disheartening. The redshirt freshman from Houston had been playing really well, and the general consensus is that the severity of the knee injury will force him to miss the remainder of the season. Square had to be carted to the locker room, which is never a good sign, and I imagine it's some type of ligament damage involved. Nevertheless, he's a fine young man with a promising future ahead of him. Hopefully he can take things in stride and start getting prepared for 2010 (if the knee is as bad as feared), and then hopefully we can successfully petition the NCAA for a medical hardship waiver on down the road if it comes to that.
The rest of the injuries, fortunately, aren't as serious as Square's knee injury. Mark Ingram showed no signs of limitation from the knee injury he suffered late last weekend against Virginia Tech, and while Roy Upchurch's ankle sprain was a bit frustrating, Upchurch's fragility isn't exactly breaking news, and at this point you just have to be happy that it was nothing more serious, and from here on just count any production from Upchurch as a bonus. For what it's worth, the ankle sprain did look pretty serious -- Upchurch returned to the sideline in street clothes, and was sporting a protective boot on his lower leg -- and I imagine he either misses the next few weeks or is limited for the next few weeks. Hopefully that's not the case, but I'm afraid this wasn't just your typical minor day-to-day ankle tweak for Upchurch. Fortunately, though, there were no other major injuries reported for the rest of the team, so the news is good on that front.
With Ingram limited somewhat by the flu and Upchurch injuring his ankle early, the door was opened for the arrival of Trent Richardson and he did not disappoint. To date, Richardson has shown why he was so highly-touted coming out of Escambia. He is built like a bodybuilder and runs with great power, but he's no glorified fullback out there, he has a lot of top-end speed and overall agility to boot. Moreover, he did a decent job tonight in pass protection, and showed off his hands catching the football out of the backfield. He's still a true freshman and will experience some growing pains, inevitably, but he looks to be an asset for the Tide in 2009, and if Upchurch's injury issues continue, he's going to prove to be an invaluable asset at that. Prior to the season I said that he could probably get 150 carries on the year, and if Upchurch misses some time throughout the course of the year, Richardson will probably get near that mark. In particular, if Upchurch's sprained ankle indeed does keep him out or limited for a few weeks, expect Richardson to be a major cog of the offense.
As expected, we did see some more true freshmen in action tonight in addition to Trent Richardson and Rod Woodson -- both of whom played against Virginia Tech and played again tonight against FIU -- including Dre Kirkpatrick, Nico Johnson, Kerry Murphy, Michael Bowman, and Chance Warmack. The real surprises of the group were Michael Bowman and Chance Warmack, but in all fairness neither of those are necessarily big surprises. Bowman is supremely talented physically, and Warmack enrolled early and fought hard for a starting job this Fall. Of those true freshmen who didn't play tonight, most are probably headed for a redshirt season. Of the few possible exceptions, keep your eye on Tana Patrick, D.J. Fluker, and Kevin Norwood.
Thomas Darrah went into the game first tonight when Greg McElroy went out, but I wouldn't necessarily venture to say that he is the back-up at this point. Star Jackson was limited by the flu this week, and that had to hurt his chances against FIU. Truth be told, I still don't think anyone really knows who would take over if McElroy were forced out for an extended period of time.
Nobody will ever say that FIU has a dominating defense, but even so the offensive line did pretty well tonight. Greg McElroy was sacked only once on 24 passing attempts, and while FIU isn't exactly known for a fierce pass rush, the big uglies kept their quarterback upright, and that's all you can ever ask. Likewise, those guys did a pretty nice job in the running game as well. I think it's relatively clear that we cannot be the physically dominating unit like we were a year ago, but for the second week in a row these guys kept plugging at it and eventually got the job done. We didn't exactly annihilate FIU at the point of attack, but you can never complain about 42 carries for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. All in all, again, regardless of the opponent, all you can ask for your offensive line is to go out and get the job done, and our guys generally did that tonight.

The defensive line is continuing to perform at an extremely high level. Despite the disappointing injury to Square, the rest of the defensive line was nothing short of dominating. FIU ended up with zero yards rushing on the day, and the defensive line itself picked up three sacks, a particularly impressive figure considering that linemen in the 3-4 are more designed to occupy space and blockers and then let the linebackers run free to make plays. Marcel Dareus continues to have the look of a superstar in the making, and Lorenzo Washington is really playing at the level that so many hoped he would when he signed with the Tide way back in 2004 (Shula's first class).
The pass rush as a whole, moreover, continued to be particularly impressive. We ended up with five sacks on only 38 passing attempts, not to mention nine quarterback hurries and at least one intentional grounding penalty. I said in the preview that the FIU offensive line was nothing overly special, and admittedly they gave up a relatively high number of sacks a year ago, but the way we got after the quarterback was still impressive. Objectively, our ability to rush the passer in the first two games augers well for the stretch run.
The pass defense, generally speaking, had a good night, but in the first half we did struggle quite a bit and things got very frustrating. Admittedly, it is important to get perspective on the subject by pointing out that, while FIU had a 14-13 lead, seven of those points came on a kick return, and the following seven came after we spotted them the football on the 40-yard line thanks to a Leigh Tiffin kick sailing out of bounds. So it wasn't really that bad -- as maddening as it was at the time -- and in all fairness we really did shut down FIU in the second half with no problem. Their five meaningful possessions of the second half resulted in a whopping twenty yards of total offense, and it really became a non-issue. Perhaps our cover schemes were a bit vanilla in the first half, perhaps we struggled with the speed of their no huddle offense, but whatever the cause it was something that we fixed in the second half. I do think we still need to play better pass defense against solid spread teams, but I don't think I'd get overly worried about what we saw tonight. All told, the FIU passing game tonight went 18-38 for for 213 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. That's a completion percentage of only 47%, and a QB rating of only 97.8. Given that much of the production came on picking up third and long plays -- which generally tend to be a bit of a fluky occurrence -- I'm not complaining too much.
One guy who did struggle a lot tonight in the defensive backfield was Kareem Jackson. He gave up a couple of long passing plays, had a pass interference penalty that was key in a FIU scoring drive, and dropped what should have been an easy interception. Jackson played well against Virginia Tech, but he struggled a bit down the stretch in 2008, and tonight was probably one of his worst games. He can play well at times, but he's also a streaky player who can be a liability at times too. I just hope he works out whatever his issues are before the stretch run of conference play begins.
Also frustrating tonight was that we continued to leave points on the board. Leigh Tiffin was his consistently inconsistent self, which included a missed 39-yard field goal and a kick-off that went out of bounds. Julio Jones, though it's hard to say how much the knee injury was limiting him, nevertheless dropped a touchdown pass that he should have caught. The same goes for Colin Peek as well. Likewise, penalties continued to be an issue, and in particular a holding penalty on Drew Davis in the red zone likely took away a touchdown drive. It's hard to complain too much when you still put 40 points up on the board, but even with that kind of production we still left a lot more out there, and while we can get away with this against the FIU's of the world, this type of foot-shooting can very well result in a loss (or losses) in conference play. Hopefully we can improve offensive efficiency moving forward and stop leaving so many points on the board.
The biggest problem tonight, of course, was continued breakdowns by the kick coverage team, and that point I really do not even know what to say. We have some of the best athletes in the country playing kick coverage, and there is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't have one of the best kick coverage teams around. What I can say, however, is that unless we get this problem fixed immediately, it's going to cost us a game at some point. SEC play is just entirely too tough, and the margin of error against many opponents in conference play is so small that we will not be able to afford to allow our opponent to just race to the end zone on a kick return and still expect to win. Either we take care of this problem soon, or this problem will take care of us soon. Hopefully it's the former, not the latter.
At the end of the day, FIU looked pretty solid in this game. They aren't a great team, obviously, but again they are nowhere near the laughingstock that many of our fans ridiculed them for being prior to this game. They are a solid Sun Belt team with a lot of experience and a good young coach, and it's a team that may very well end up in a bowl game came late December. Best of luck to them.
For Alabama, it's hard to complain too much. If nothing else, we're pretty healthy, 2-0, and #4 in the country. If you are asking for much more than that, chances are you are simply being greedy. We're in pretty good shape, and you won't see me doing any real complaining. On the other hand, though, in all fairness, we aren't a perfect team by any stretch of the imagination. We have more than our fair share of flaws -- offensive line isn't dominating in the run game like a year ago, we're leaving points on the board, penalties are hurting us, special teams are killing us, and the pass defense has looked shaky at times against FIU -- and no destination is guaranteed for us, not even Atlanta. Nevertheless, things have pretty much gone as well as can be reasonably expected thus far, and for now we just have to focus on fixing the shortcomings that we have displayed to date. We aren't there yet, but we've gotten off to a good start and now we just have to focus on improvement.

Monday Morning Required Reading

kleph — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 14:10:06 -0000

Blogging is my day job.

Alright kids. Party's over. The inaugural weekend of the college football has come to a close. Sure, there's a couple of games on tonight to make you feel like the festivities are continuing but it's back to the salt mines for you. Oh wait! It's Labor Day! So why don't you go get that free Chick-fil-A and waste the rest of the day like you would have done at the office anyway? And RBR is here to help by providing the best of the nonsense out there on the interwebs for your enjoyment.

College football is more popular than Law & Order. Good to know: The Alabama vs. Virginia Tech game was the most popular thing on television Saturday night, garnering no less than 6.6 million viewers.

ESPN plan for world domination continues: No matter what you think about all this big opening weekend matchups, one thing is for sure - you can blame this man for them.

Let's be careful out there: A UA band bus hit a car at an Atlanta intersection (the driver of the car was injured) on the way to the game and a blogger for The Birmingham News got way too close to a wreck on the way back.

Our nation's ongoing tragedy: Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tubberville had lots of time on their hands this weekend.

Bama bangs make it to the big time: Former Alabama QB John Parker Wilson made the Atlanta Falcons final roster.

And people really think there's a "Corso Curse": Former Alabama coach Gene Stallings once ripped Lee Corso a new one for saying his team "couldn’t beat a high school team."

The groundskeeper had to do 100 wind sprints: Fifty years ago this week, even the grass was pissing off Coach Bryant after the team's first scrimmage.

Spellcheck doesn't work but the edit button is just fine: Auburn finally fixes the misspelling of their coach's name on their post proclaiming the greatness of their WAC victory this weekend.

Alabama vs Florida International: Not a lot here folks. The Crimson Tide has only played FIU once, a 38-3 win in Tuscaloosa on Oct. 28, 2006. During that contest Bama corner Ramzee Robinson's snagged a pass by the Golden Panther's Josh Padrick in the fourth quarter and scampered 34 yards for the touchdown. According to the clearly outdated Record Book, the game is the last time Alabama's has gotten a pick six (at least four players achieved this last year).

Kicking Off Week 2 with Good Sportmanship and Uncertainty // 09.07.09

cocknfire — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 08:10:54 -0000

GATOR HYPE-O-METER
On a scale of 1 to 100

Even Lou Holtz concedes that the Gators will "upset" Notre Dame for the national title. Meanwhile, a competitor for BCS game (Oklahoma) loses to BYU and the biggest threat in the SEC East (Georgia) looks like it's unable to score points.

UPS AND DOWNS
A look at who's going which way in college football

DAN MULLEN
Guides Mississippi State to largest point total in seven years. Next up: Auburn and a sequel to 3-2.

RICH RODRIGUEZ
What scandal? It might have been Western Michigan out of the MAC, but Saturday's game was the second-highest point total for Michigan under Rodriguez and the highest margin of victory. Oh, and Michigan beat a mid-major or FCS in its home opener for a change.

SEC QUARTERBACKS
Greg McElroy, Jevan Snead overcome slow starts to look impressive. Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton looks light years ahead of last year's imitation of Evil Erik Ainge. Now, about Georgia's Joe Cox, South Carolina's Stephen Garcia ...

AMERICAN FOOTBALL COACHES ASSOCIATION, NCAA
Dubbed the first weekend "Sportsmanship Week," asked for teams to shake hands at midfield. How'd that work out for you?

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT
Latest example of bad behavior in sports. Upside: Closest anyone came on Thursday night to landing a knockout blow.

ACC
When does basketball season begin?

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
A few things to think about

The first week means nothing -- sometimes
It's easy to get wrapped up in the first weekend of college football. It is, after all, the first time we've seen any of these teams, and it's the only basis we have for any analysis at all.

Take, for example, South Carolina's woeful performance on offense. No, not Thursday's; the season opener back in 2006, when the Gamecocks scored just 15 points and produced just 274 yards of offense, until this week the worst offensive output of any Spurrier-era South Carolina team. That 2006 squad ended up as Spurriers best so far in terms of points per game (26.6), rushing yardage per game (144) and total yardage per game (395). It fell 21 points short of going 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC and came within Jarvis Moss' fingertips of upsetting eventual national champion Florida.

That was two days before Arkansas got crushed 50-14 at home by Southern Cal. The Hogs would reel off 10 straight wins until losing to LSU in their final regular season game. Arkansas ended up winning the SEC West crown and were ranked 15th or 16th in the polls when the year ended.

You might remember last year's victory by UCLA against Tennessee. That was good enough for the Bruins to show up at No. 23 in the AP poll and just outside the Top 25 in the USA Today poll. That is, until BYU waxed UCLA 59-0 the next week; the Bruins would win just three more games all year.

Of course, sometimes season openers let us know exactly what a team is. Also last year, Mississippi State lost to Louisiana Tech in the season opener. The Western Division Bulldogs would win just three games against FBS foes the rest of the way and Sylvester Croom "resigned" at the end of the season.

So it might be that Georgia and South Carolina are as awful as they look or that Alabama will cruise to its second straight SEC West title. Excuse me if I wait a bit longer to pass judgment.

Where can I go to get my reputation back? Week 2
This could mark a redemption weekend of sorts for the SEC. Tennessee will have an opportunity to prove that it's turned things around since last year when UCLA comes to Knoxville after last year's 27-24 loss in overtime marked the point at which the wheels essentially began to come off of the Fulmer Era.

Meanwhile, Auburn will take on Mississippi State in a repeat of the infamous "baseball game" of last year, which say the teams combine for 431 yards of offense, 20 first downs and five points.

Can we start over again?
Perhaps no conference had a Saturday as bad as the ACC. The newest "superconference" went 0-2 against the CAA -- Colonial Athletic Association -- with losses by Virginia to William & Mary and Duke to Richmond. The conference also lost ~~all~~ four of its five games against other teams in the FBS (excluding Monday's intraconference game between Florida State and Miami, which one of the teams presumably must win). [C&F: Clemson beat Middle Tennessee State, after which all of its fans went on a cow-tipping spree. The sentence has been edited to reflect this.]

This was a significant step backwards for the SEC's closest neighbor, which also had an embarrassing outing last year but won all its first-week games against FCS schools and saw its worst losses in blowouts by Southern Cal at Virginia and Alabama against Clemson and a close East Carolina victory against Virginia Tech.

At some point, this could have severe consequences for the ACC. If it falls too far in the public eye, the rankings of its champion will begin to fall, and the league could join the Big East in hoping that it avoids getting axed under the BCS rules for letting one of the major conferences go. That is, assuming anyone really considers the ACC a major conference anymore.

SEC NEWS

Game recap of the week
The obituary of Manic Kyle is also a hilarious and devoted recounting of the Mayor's disappointing trip to Stillwater. Anyone who has ever seen his team lose a heartbreaking game will empathize.

I know one game he didn't watch
Spurrier knocks his own gameplan for N.C. State, which might be considered a bold move by anyone who didn't watch the game. "We certainly can’t bring that game plan to beat Georgia on offense." Coach, I'm not sure about that one, but it is best not to tempt fate.

Well, it was his first game
Auburn talks up the win by Gene Chisek.

Makiri Pugh has swine flu
No joke here, because it's actually a case of swine flue. Here's hoping Pugh recovers quickly.

And then there are the important things
It's easy to hate puff pieces, but anyone who finishes fighting in Iraq and makes three attempts to get on a football team before making it deserves an article or two.

Jesse Mahelona dies
Thoughts and prayers to his young family.

John Parker Wilson a Falcon
But another former SEC quarterback, ex-Dawg D.J. Shockley, is gone as a result. Shockley did sign with the practice squad.

Injury Report

Trinton Sturdivant (Georgia)
ACL, season-ending.

Permit me a side note. This sucks. I don't care who you cheer for -- and as a Gamecock fan, I'm no devotee of the Dawgs -- but it seems unfair for any player, particularly one as apparently talented as Sturdivant, to have to overcome this twice.

Rodney Paulk (South Carolina)
ACL, season-ending

Carl Johnson (Florida)
Bone bruise, probable.

Lawrence Marsh (Florida)
Ankle, probable.

Larry Smith (Vanderbilt)
Arm, not serious.

ELSEWHERE

Blount apologizes to Boise State
I still wonder why Byron Hout hasn't been suspended for at least a game. Let's be honest -- Hout's antics are no excuse for what LeGarrette Blount did, but it's not too difficult to believe that if Hout had kept his mount shut, Blount might still have a football future and this whole ugly situation could have been avoided.

In fact, one could argue that Hout should have been suspended even if Blount didn't punch him. To say something after you've lost is bad enough. To do so after you've won is completely classless.

At least he had an insurance policy
No telling how much he took it out for, but Sam Bradford appears to have covered his bases before returning to college. The question for the Sooners, of course, is whether they have enough insurance behind Bradford to keep their Big XII and national title hopes alive until he returns.

Jonathan Crompton needs support and patience from Vol fans

Joel — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:56:22 -0000

"I am an old man man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened."

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So Lane Kiffin has chosen Jonathan Crompton to be the Vols' starter at QB this year. What do Vol fans do now?

Fans can be generally divided into two camps on this issue: (1) those of us that want Crompton to succeed so that he can erase his identity as 2008's scapegoat and instead become the poster boy for 2009's turnaround, and (2) those of us that are so convinced of his incompetence that giving him any practice or game time to prove it is the height of stupidity.

Regardless of what camp you're in, note that you're still one of "us," Vol fans who desperately want their team to succeed. But the question remains, what do we do now that Kiffin's made his choice?

Hope he succeeds

We in the first camp already want this, and if Crompton does succeed, they'll be ecstatic, both because their team is doing well and because they're doing it with Crompton. On the other hand, if Crompton fails, these folks will be extremely disappointed, both that their team is doing poorly and that Crompton was unable to redeem himself. They won't have "wasted any games," though, because it wasn't their decision to start Crompton. They merely decided to cheer on the starter and were disappointed with the result.

We in the second camp are pulling our nose hairs out, terrified that the Kiffin Era will begin much like 2008, an unwise on-field experiment that at best wastes time and potential wins and at worst goes a long way toward paying another coaching staff to leave.

But even if we are in this camp, we still have to choose whether we'll support Crompton. If we do not, we'll likely spend the first several games terrified of the epic FAIL we're so convinced will happen. The most we have to gain is the impotent satisfaction of having been right when Crompton is finally replaced. But we risk much more: if we're wrong and Crompton does succeed, we waste much of the potential enjoyment of the season just waiting for the front to fall off on the next play.

If instead, we choose to support Crompton despite a nagging feeling that he can't succeed, we can at least enjoy any successes he might have and delay the disappointment for actual failures rather than anticipated ones.

Be patient

Jonathan Crompton will probably throw at least eight interceptions this season, and he will throw many incompletions. Vol fans should prepare for this, and when it happens we should characterize it appropriately.

Last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, went 328-423 (67.9%) with eight interceptions (1.7%). In 2007, Tim Tebow won the Stiff Arm going 234-350 (66.9%) with six interceptions (1.7%). In other words, the best quarterbacks in the nation over the past two years had 95 and 116 mini-failures and eight and six major failures respectively.

The failure rates of other successful teams' QBs are, of course, much worse. Alabama's John Parker Wilson led the Crimson Tide to an undefeated regular season, but went 235-383 (57.89%) with eight interceptions (2.48%). Georgia's Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 pick in the draft last year, had 187-323 (61.36%) and ten interceptions (2.61%). These guys had 136 and 148 mini-failures and eight and ten major failures respectively last seson. Georgia went 10-3 last year with the No. 1 pick in the draft and got obliterated by Alabama with an inferior QB.

So . . . even the best QBs aren't perfect. Some of the best teams don't have the best QBs. A guy can have a high rate of interceptions, guide his team to a three-loss season, and still get drafted first in the NFL.

It's inevitable. Every time Crompton throws an incompletion or an interception, Vol fans, both those who hope he succeeds and those who just hope he fails fast, will experience painful flashbacks of the horrific 2008 season. But fans should keep it all in perspective. Crompton will not be perfect, but he doesn't need to be. He can even be in the bottom half of the nation's QBs, like John Parker Wilson was last year, and still guide the team to a great season.

Again, how we Vol fans react to Crompton's failures along the way is our choice. We can waste our time expecting him to devolve from acceptable failure to utter ineptitude, or we can postpone disappointment for a performance that is actually worthy of it.

It may never come.

ATVSQBPI: Variance From the Mean

Richard Pittman — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:45:06 -0000

As I was thinking last night about what to write about this morning, I certainly thought about talking about the mounting injury problem at Fall Camp. While all teams suffer minor injuries throughout the season, and these minor injuries seem to be magnified during camp, when a minor injury will usually put a player out of action when it would not have during the season, rumors are going around that some of the injuries are more serious and may put certain players out of action for part of the season.

Being the nerd that I am, though, I decided not to write about that, but delve even further into the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index. When we first looked at the numbers, we may have been surprised to see that Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilson's numbers were not all that much better than Jarrett Lee's, despite the very great gulf between how the two are perceived by the media and the public. Wilson was the veteran quarterback, leading a good team to a good season, while Lee was the disaster, creating untold misery for LSU fans, and bringing down a reign of boos upon himself.

The numbers did not bear that out, but it occurred to me that maybe I wasn't looking at the right numbers. Chris Brown over at Smart Football is one of the most insightful writers about football out there. He writes to educate up those of who consider ourselves football geeks, or those of us who aspire to it (like me). One of his favorite topics to discuss is "variance from the mean." Meaning, does a player or a system hit dizzying highs and catastrophic lows, or is he steadily clicking away right at his average. To give an example, take two running backs who both average 4.0 yards per carry. That average can mask a lot of information. If 80% of RB#1's rushes are between 3 and 5 yards, that is certainly meaningful. He's steady, good for a few yards almost every time, but there are few if any big runs there. If 70% of RB#2's rushes are stopped for 1 yard or less but he pops off a lot of 20+ yard runs, that's a totally different kind of back, and which one you want may be dependent upon the circumstances. You certainly want to know which one you're getting before you hand out that big contract.

Having looked at Jarrett Lee's numbers game by game already, let us also look at John Parker Wilson's, to see if this "variation from the mean" idea tells us anything.

Game #	John Parker Wilson	Jarrett Lee
1	7.62	12.60
2	1.96 (Tulane)	4.67
3	8.17	8.73 (Auburn)
4	5.25	8.96
5	11.33 (Georgia)	4.35 (Florida)
6	2.43 (Kentucky)	5.59
7	7.72	8.72 (Georgia)
8	8.08	2.55
9	3.58	2.23
10	6.44	5.53
11	6.68	0.92
12	7.70	N/A
13	5.68	N/A
14	2.52 (Utah)	N/A

The Tigers played one fewer game, and Jarrett Lee did not play in two of LSU's games due to injury. To me, the surprise here is that there doesn't seem to be that big of a difference there, at least to the naked eye. Wilson had a couple of bad games in there, most notably the Utah game and the Tulane game, while he had a couple of really good games, most notably the Georgia game, when his team needed it the most.

Lee's average game measured a 5.9 y/touch average (not weighted for number of touches, so it's different from his average per play throughout the season). John Parker Wilson's was a 6.1 y/touch average. Again, not that huge of a difference in their average, but let's look at standard deviation. Lee's standard deviation was 3.36 while Wilson's standard deviation was 2.59.

So I suppose there is something to my hypothesis that the variation between the two quarterbacks was meaningful, and was a meaningful difference not only between the two quarterbacks, but between the two teams. I'm not convinced this fully explains the difference in perception, however. I think it might have had more to do with timing, however. John Parker Wilson saved his best game for hit team's best opponent in the regular season: Georgia. Lee played his best game against Appalachian State,w hen we probably didn't need a great game from him to win, while he was disastrous against a couple teams we might have beaten if he had done better. And before you say, "Well, anyone could have a good game against Appalachian State, please note that steady-as-she-goes Wilson played Western Kentucky, Tulane, and Arkansas State and only saw his ATVSQBPI rise above 3.58 one time.

In addition to "timing" I think it has a lot to do with defense. Bama had a great defense last year, while LSU's was poor. That difference, I think, magnified the perception problems surrounding Jarrett Lee's performance. Despite Lee's bad interceptions against Georgia, we would have won that game if we had played better defense. We would have beaten Ole Miss and Arkansas (admittedly, Lee didn't play in that game) if we had played better defense. Really the only game in which we played well defensively but still lost was the Bama game, which I have to admit is a loss in which Lee takes the lion's share of the blame.

Had Lee simply switched up his performance against Appalachian State with his performance against Bama, and vice versa, 2008 could have been a very different season.

Friday Iron Bowl on the Plains!

Acid Reign — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 08:30:40 -0000

Can the Tigers move a mountain?

War Eagle, everybody! Time now for an early Iron Bowl preview. This year, Alabama will visit Auburn at Jordan Hare Stadium, on Friday, November 27^th, 2009, the day after Thanksgiving. This will be the sixth Iron Bowl played on a Friday. Auburn has won three of the previous five, most recently in 1988. While Auburn will have had a Saturday off the previous week, Alabama will be coming off a tune-up match against Tennessee-Chattanooga. The Tide likely will enter this contest as a top ten team, in contention for the SEC Western Division Title. Barring poor injury luck, Auburn should be around 7-4 on the year, and jockeying for bowl position.

The 2009 edition of the Alabama defense should loaded. The Tide returns 9 starters on a team that finished 3^rd nationally in total defense. The stars are senior nose guard Terrence Cody and junior linebacker Rolando McClain. It's possible that both of those players will be selected in the first round of the next NFL draft. Six of the front seven return. The only serious loss for the Tide defense is All American free safety Rashad Johnson. The Tide is fairly young behind the starters in most cases, but it's a pool of players drawn from some great recruiting classes. If there is a weak spot, at all, it might be with a new free safety. Even so, the best strategy for attacking the Bama D remains the same: work the sidelines, and make 'em run.

Bama has some question marks on offense, having lost 7 starters from a year ago, including veteran quarterback John Parker Wilson, top rusher Glen Coffee, and 3 NFL-caliber offensive linemen. Junior quarterback Greg McElroy appears to be the pick to run the offense, and sophomore runner Mark Ingram is striving to become an every down back. The star of the returnees is sophomore wide receiver Julio Jones, who was a freshman All-American last season. Senior offensive linemen Drew Davis and Mike Johnson also return.

Bama is in a rare position on special teams. Nearly everyone is back, from a pretty good unit. Senior Leigh Tiffin handles the kicking, and senior P J Fitzgerald punts. Alabama has one of the best return men in the nation, in senior cornerback Javier Arenas. If there's a special teams area where Bama is not exceptional, it's coverage. Bama's kickoff coverage was average, and punt coverage was suspect, in 2008. With a bit more veteran group this year, look for coach Bobby Williams' guys to show improvement.

Matchups (It's a not an official Bama depth chart, ai'ght?)

Auburn defensive line vs. Alabama offensive line: In last year's Iron Bowl, from the second Bama drive onwards, they took it right at the strong side of Auburn's line, against SenDerrick Marks and Michael Goggans. The result was a 234 yard rushing day, and 4.7 yards per carry. The Auburn line made a few tackles, and held their own, but it was not enough. This season, Auburn will have similar strength on the line. Bama usually runs between the tackles, with up to 9 blockers on the play. It won't be enough for Auburn's line to simply play to a draw. The Auburn line must get penetration and disrupt. Alabama returns senior guard Mike Johnson, and senior right tackle Drew Davis. Beyond those two, it's safe to say that the starting jobs aren't nailed down, at this time. Junior William Vlachos is the most likely to start at center. Bama has a plethora of large young linemen to choose from, to fill out the other two spots, perhaps none as impressive as 350 pound true freshman D. J. Fluker. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn linebackers vs. Alabama runners: Erratic linebacker play was the order of the day for Auburn, in last year's Iron Bowl. This year's situation may be even worse. Juniors Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens are the only significant experience that returns for Auburn at linebacker. This fall so far, Auburn cannot keep a weak side linebacker healthy. As of this writing, true freshman Jonathan Evans is running with the starters, because there's no other scholarship linebackers able to practice. Bama remains pretty well loaded at running back. Sophomore Mark Ingram is the heir-apparent, after tallying 743 rushing yards last season as a true freshman. Behind Ingram is junior Terry Grant, who has great speed. Incoming freshman Trent Richardson is highly regarded, and might be used as Ingram was, a year ago. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn corners vs. Alabama receivers: Auburn's starting corners Walter McFadden and Neiko Thorpe should be very solid this fall. Both have continued to win praise in fall camp. As elsewhere with the Tigers, depth is a problem, as converted receiver Harry Adams is currently the 3^rd corner. Bama sophomore Julio Jones is the most talked about, but he's hardly the only good wideout Bama has. Senior Mike McCoy will start opposite Jones, and off the bench the Tide has sophomore burner Marquis Maze, and sophomore Darius Hanks. Slight Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn safeties vs. Alabama secondary receivers and quarterback: On paper, this seems a very favorable matchup for Auburn. The Tigers return two veteran safeties. However, health remains an issue in fall camp. Junior Zach Etheridge is back at strong safety, playing well. But free safety Michael McNeil is still rehabbing a broken leg. Whether McNeil will be full-speed by Iron Bowl time is not clear. Auburn has several options, including Mike Slade, Drew Cole, and incoming true freshman Darren Bates, who is turning heads in fall camp. Alabama has to replace their 2008 starters in this category. Gone are tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall, as well as quarterback John Parker Wilson. Bama's best option at tight end appears to be senior Colin Peek, a Georgia Tech transfer. Peek is a tall, strong target with good hands. Others vying for playing time include sophomore Brad Smelley, junior Preston Dial, and sophomore Chris Underwood. Junior Greg McElroy takes the helm at quarterback, and by all accounts, is doing well. None of Bama's other quarterbacks were terribly impressive in the A-Day game, and the Tide may look to incoming freshman A. J. McCarron as the backup quarterback. Advantage: Even.

Punting: Clinton Durst averaged 42.1 yards per punt for Auburn last year, in his first season, with 18 of 70 punts pinned inside the 20 yard line, against 4 touchbacks. Bama returns senior P. J. Fitzgerald, who averaged 41.1 yards per punt, with 15 pinned inside the 20 on 59 punts, and 4 touchbacks. Auburn's punt coverage gave up 7.0 yards per return, the Tide gave up 9.0. While Auburn is still trying to find a punt returner, Bama returns Javier Arenas. Arenas averaged 15.9 yards per return, with 3 touchdowns. Arenas has 6 career punt return touchdowns. Advantage: Alabama.

Kickoffs: Both teams look to improve in this area, this year. Auburn's Wes Byrum averaged about 67 yards per kickoff during the spring, and appeared very consistent during the A-Day game. Bama senior Leigh Tiffin averaged 64.1 yards last season. Auburn coverage gave up 21.5 yards per return, Bama gave up 21.8. Auburn junior Mario Fannin is the most experienced kick return man, averaging 22.5 yards per return. Alabama's Javier Arenas averaged 23.6. Slight Advantage: Auburn.

Placekicking: Wes Byrum returns for his third year for Auburn, having hit 27 of his 42 career attempts. Byrum had something a sophomore slump last season, hitting only 11 of 19. All indications are that Byrum is kicking it much better, this year. Bama senior Leigh Tiffin handles the kicking for the Tide, and he's had his ups and downs, too, none as painful as a series of missed kicks in a one point loss to Arkansas in 2006. Last season, Tiffin was 20 out of 29, and for his career, he's 53-76. That's 64 percent for Byrum, 69 percent for Tiffin, overall. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn offensive line vs. Alabama defensive line: Auburn will field a strong group of offensive line starters, but current word is that we have not even one backup that can play at an SEC level. Last season, this group managed the unlikely feat of playing to a draw against the Bama front. Unfortunately, that took all five linemen to deal with 3 guys, and left the rest of the Bama back seven running free. Senior All-American nose guard Terrence Cody returns for the Tide, and word is that he's dropped some weight, and is more mobile and dangerous than ever. Senior end Brandon Deaderick provides stability with 22 career starts going into the season. Senior Lorenzo Washington will likely start at the other end slot, but he's also an experienced nose guard, and can relieve Cody if the big man gets tired. Beyond that, Bama has about a half dozen more guys that can play at an SEC level. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn backs vs. Alabama linebackers: Auburn's backs look to be more dangerous, this season, with Mario Fannin moved to H-back, and the emergence of newcomers like Onterrio McCaleb and Eric Smith, behind Ben Tate. Still, against hordes of unblocked linebackers, no one can succeed. Auburn MUST be able to block better, this season, from the skill positions! An impressive Bama linebacking corps is led by junior All-SEC behemoth Rolando McClain. McClain is defensive-end sized, at 260 pounds, but runs like a safety. Sophomore Dont'a Hightower is another big, 250 pound Bama backer, who is equally at home covering backs out of the backfield, or setting up with a hand down and rushing the passer. Joining McClain and Hightower will be senior Cory Reamer, and senior Eryk Andrews. There is some depth behind the big 4, but not as much as in other Tide areas. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn receivers vs. Alabama corners: Auburn will be mostly inexperienced at wide receiver, returning only senior Montez Billings with any significant past production. Spring leader Tim Hawthorne is still injured. Wide receivers coach Trooper Taylor is talking about all 4 true freshman receivers playing. This is perhaps the most critical matchup of the game, as it's nearly impossible to move the ball on Alabama, without exploiting the sideline. For Alabama, it's an experienced group of corners. Between senior Javier Arenas and junior Kareem Jackson, there are 41 career starts, before this season begins. These two are fast, and stick to receivers like glue. If there's a weakness, it might be that Arenas is only 5' 9". When the situation calls for a nickel defense, the Tide can call on senior Marquis Johnson, who's been solid for several years. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn secondary receivers and quarterback vs. Alabama safeties: The news out of Auburn is that a starting quarterback has finally been settled on, and that man is 5^th year senior Chris Todd. There still are questions about Todd's arm strength, and durability, but not about the man's persistence. Written off and left for dead last October, Todd won the starting job in 11 days of fall camp, over incumbents Kodi Burns and Neil Caudle. Auburn should have some options at the inside receiver positions, with 5^th year senior tight end Tommy Trott, and junior Mario Fannin in the slot. Last season, Trott missed the Iron Bowl due to injury, and Fannin was playing tailback against stacked Bama fronts. These two MUST have a great game, especially blocking, for the Auburn offense to have a chance. Bama returns senior safety Justin Woodall, who was a surprise last season. Besides having good hitting skills, Woodall had 4 interceptions and 8 passes broken up. Not bad at all, for a strong safety! Penciled in to start opposite Woodall is sophomore Robby Green, a converted cornerback. With Green, Bama has 4 or 5 good sets of hands in the secondary. Advantage: Alabama.

Auburn must find a way to move the ball effectively against Alabama, or another blow-out loss is likely. It's going to take a great, mistake-free effort. The Tigers MUST use the whole field, and spread Alabama out. First time Iron Bowl starters at quarterback generally have a rough go of it, and it's really important for the Auburn defense, and the home crowd, to make Greg McElroy's first such start miserable.

Prediction: A transition year, and a lack of depth hurt Auburn in the 12^th game of the season. Auburn gives Alabama more of a battle than a year ago, but the Tigers fall: 27-17.

The Official WWAHT Blogpoll Ballot: The Top 5

Sam @ WWAHT — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:00:10 -0000

Because I just couldn't think of a better way to start this post

I couldn't help but notice that my top-5 looks like everyone else's top 5. I began this poll with the grand ambition of actually ranking teams roughly where I think they'd finish the season, but when I realized I couldn't really differentiate among teams 2-5, I threw 'em down in a random order and hoped that it wouldn't end up too ugly. Apologies on the conformity.

5. Alabama

Repeat after me: Greg McElroy is a big step up over John Parker Wilson. In 2008, Saban was able to turn the turnover-happy Wilson into a reasonable facsimile of a competent quarterback; the results were not particularly dazzling - Parker completed 58 percent of his passes for 2200 yards, 10 touchdowns to 8 picks - but it gave Alabama and undefeated regular season. The team promptly faded down the stretch, as younger teams are wont to do. 2009 will be the year Nick Saban finally works out the kinks on this team. Last year's defense, which finished the year tied with Tennessee for the 3rd-best in the FBS, returns an astonishing ten starters. The offense returns just four - two of them offensive linemen - but there's no reason to think the Bama offense will be the key to a title run. The biggest road block to another undefeated season, outside of the turnover on the line, is a road date at Ole Miss.

4. Southern Cal

We are well-past the point where SC is good for a top-5 ranking based merely on name recognition and recent performance; any other team replacing ten starters on defense would be lucky to find itself in the top 5, but USC makes it here and nobody bats an eye. Even if the transition from the Maualuga-Cushing-Matthews chimera of last year is relatively seamless, SC still has to stay on its usual road-warrior pace, with games at Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame, Arizona State and Oregon. Add onto that schedule the specter of a true freshman starting quarterback, and things get interesting. But this is USC; do you honestly think they're good for any less than 10 wins?

3. Oklahoma

I had a difficult time differentiating between the Sooners and Texas, and it came down to Oklahoma's offensive line. Only one guy is back from what had been one of the most dominant, bad-assed units in the country before its comeuppance against Florida. The defense is going to improve, markedly, for the following reasons: everyone but the safeties are back, along with superstars Ryan Reynolds and the un-freaking-believable redshirt sophomore Travis Lewis, who notched 144 tackles a year ago - good for a Spielman-esque 10 a game. For the Sooners, just as with their in-state counterparts in Stillwater - there is nowhere to go but up defensively.

2. Texas

The narrative is essentially set-up for the media hypefest/shitstorm that will dominate the season: Texas returns a talented, mobile quarterback, along with 9 starters on offense and 5 on defense, and will look to unseat a team many will crown national champions before a down is played. 2009/2005 comparisons will eventually run amok in the press as well, and Texas should look the part of the dominant Big 12 team throughout the regular season. If Muschamp gets the pass defense in order, this season is going to get very interesting.

1. Florida

I'm simply not going to dump any more love on Florida than what they're already getting; the "GREATEST TEAM EVER" ESPN monologues are unavoidable and the love for the SEC (much of it deserved, the "Conference of the Gods" stuff most certainly not) is sickening. But before you rag on Florida as potentially the USC of 2005 all over again, there is something that differentiates this team from that one: every starter is back on defense, whereas in 2005, USC was looking at a mostly new crop, one that just simply had to keep opponents to 20 or fewer points and then sit back and watch Reggie Bush do his tactical nuke shtick on hapless Pac-10 defenses. Florida has the benefit of returning Bush-esque quarkbacks Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, but unlike that Trojan team (which watched its championship dreams come crashing down as Vince Young put aside the Turnover-prone scrambler and b ecame who he was born to be) probably won't have to fret over their defensive counterparts very frequently, if at all, this season. Texas has all the right ingredients to pull the upset, but until that (or a relatively ignominious conference loss) happens, I'm putting the Gators at the tippy-top of my blogpoll.

There, I'm done. If you have any qualms with my rankings or my justifications, let me know.

Will Nick Saban End the Trend?

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:08:50 -0000

More photos » by Dusty Compton - AP

"Saban-ball" is based around a powerful, run-stuffing defense and a clock-managing offense. He's got one proven half of that forumla for this upcoming season.

Browse more photos »

There is a very popular internet meme surrounding a particular SEC Western Division head coach. One which suggests that, under certain conditions, he is unable to guide his teams to victory. Yes, it has been proven time and time again that this coach--whose previous coaching tenure at another SEC West school, controversial career moves, and unique personality have caused quite a sir throughout the Southeast--has a hard time getting over a certain hump.

We are talking of course, about Nick Saban's inability to reach double-digit wins without a Senior at quarterback.

Heh, and you thought we were talking about Houston Nutt's "can't win with expectations" meme, didn't you? Don't you remember? That's been debunked. Twice.

We'll elaborate with a fancy chart and even fancier words after the jump.

You will need to click for biggification here.

There are Saban's BCS level records and quarterbacks. Do you see what we see? It is quite simple, really. In 1999, the Michigan State Spartans, led by senior quarterback Bill Burke and head coach Nick Saban, completed a 9-2 regular season. They tied for 2nd in the Big 10 before earning a Capital One Bowl bid. After the regular season, Saint Nick was in Baton Rouge beginning his stint as the head coach of the LSU Tigers, but that didn't stop Burke, receiver Plaxico Burress, and the rest of the Michigan State Spartans from defeating the Florida Gators to earn their season's 10th win.

In 2001, the Saban's Tigers, led by senior quarterback Rohan Davey defeated every opponent in the SEC West aside from Ole Miss (I just had to do it) before besting the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Title game and defeating the Fighting Illini of Illinois in the Sugar Bowl.

In 2003, Matt Mauck, while technically not a senior, filled the role of the Saban quarterback. Mauck, a 24 year old redshirt junior who had spend a brief amount of time playing minor league baseball, led the Bayou Bengals to a 13-1 overall record and a BCS championship.

In 2004, a senior Marcus Randall started a majority of LSU's games that rebuilding season, but eventually began to lose playing time in favor of the redshirt freshman and eventual #1 overall draft pick, Jamarcus Russell. Russell and Randall had incredibly similar stats that season as playing time was seemingly split down the middle. While still a good season under most standards (9-2 regular season, bowl loss to Iowa on a Hail Mary pass), the scores of LSU's games in 2004 were all much closer than the scores seen in their 2003 season, demonstrating just how much of a rebuilding effort Randall and Russell were a part of.

And finally, in 2008 Nick Saban was finally able to get John Parker Wilson to produce wins which had escaped Alabama in Wilson's previous seasons. JPW's interceptions (some of which were pick sixes) which cost the Tide a few games in 2007 were significantly reduced while less pressure was placed on Wilson to win games. He used fantastic leadership and adequate decision making to produce an undefeated regular season for the Crimson Tide.

So, why the trend? It's all Saban-ball.

Whiskey Wednesday and I theorize that Saban-ball could be renamed to "don't-screw-it-up" ball. Namely, with regards to quarterbacks, Saban relies on level-headedness, adequate decision making, and confidence-inducing leadership skills. Saban's quarterbacks are never flashy NFL-prospects or stat machines. Their value doesn't come with their abilities to make plays. Their value comes with their abilities to not make the wrong plays. Last year's Crimson Tide squad is no more exemplary of this system. In looking at John Parker Wilson's stats (186/321, 57.9CMP, 2243yYDS, 9TD, 7INT, 121.53RAT), one is hardly impressed. However, in looking at 2007's stats (255/462, 55.2CMP, 18TD, 12INT, 114.6RAT), it becomes obvious that Saban implemented "don't-screw-it-up" ball. Really, they asked Wilson to do less. Hell, he threw the ball 141 fewer times in 2008 than 07. He was asked to just manage the offense, make as few mistakes as possible, and wear the clock down. Alabama had the running game and offensive line to run such an offense. They also had a quarterback who, through his experience, could make the clutch decisions when need be. Remember, Bama was just a shade below Ole Miss in terms of 3rd down efficiency for 2nd in the West. John Parker Wilson had a lot to do with that.

Coach Nick Saban couples this efficient, conservative offense with a stifling defense to build championship programs. It is really that simple.

Fortunately for the Crimson Tide, with regards to the defense, this upcoming season should be no different than the last.

But what about offensively? Alabama is replacing two All-American offensive linemen, their leading rusher, and their veteran quarterback. Don't be misled, their rushing attack will be good, and their passing attack will also be good--I mean, Julio Jones, he's still alive and all--but they did lose a significant amount of offensive yards to graduation and the NFL draft. It is safe to say that Alabama will not be as dominating on the ground during this upcoming season as they were for the last. That being considered, while merely speculation, a lot more may be asked of Greg McElroy in his first year as Alabama's starter than was asked of John Parker Wilson in his last.

None of this is to suggest that Nick Saban is not a good coach. He is a great coach. The only issue is that, thus far, he has proven to rely on a particular formula to put togther highly successful seasons. Unfortunately, one of the most significant parts of that formula will not be in Tuscaloosa this fall.

Does this mean Alabama can't win 10+ games this season. Certainly not. They've got one of America's best coaches, one of college ball's most dominating receivers, and a defensive two-deep most schools would envy. Are these trends indicative of much? Hard to say. This particular narrative demonstrates what Saban's offensive modus operandi is whereas this one (yes, there's not only one doom-and-gloom for Bama trend out there) shows the inconsistency of the program over the last decade. Are they both true? Yes. Are they both going to somehow intangibly influence the coaches and players for this upcoming season? No.

Just, in the extreme off chance that McElroy is an absolute bust and Bama struggles to make a decent bowl game, please remember where you heard it first.