SB Nation - Terry Grant

If College Football Had a Playoff: #16 Troy @ #1 Alabama

Jeremy Mauss — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:00:25 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

So, starting each week day from now till the title game a 'What if Playoff' will occur here with readers voting on who should win the matchup.

Today's would be Sun Belt champion Troy @ Alabama. An upset is unlikely, but the way Troy plays against big time competition who knows how close this game would be. Yes, a playoff would feature home teams by the upper seed to give them an advantage for a better season. The bracket and stats on each team are listed below.

Just make sure to vote and the winner moves onto the next round. Voting is open for 24 hours, and look for these to be posted each day at 12 eastern time.

#16 Troy Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Levi Brown	12	60.0	248	386	64.2	3264	272	8.5	19	5	46	19	1.6	.400	1	-	-
Dantavious Parker	9	50.0	10	19	52.6	87	9.7	4.6	0	0	28	154	17.1	5.5	2	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Levi Brown	12	46	19	1.6	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jason Bruce	10	2	11	1.1	5.5	0	20	260	26	13	2
Maurice Greer	10	34	244	24.4	7.2	3	6	59	5.9	9.8	0
DuJuan Harris	12	137	471	39.3	3.4	8	23	193	16.1	8.4	1
Josh Jarboe	8	2	9	1.1	4.5	0	14	236	29.5	16.9	1
Jerrel Jernigan	12	34	227	18.9	6.7	1	62	947	78.9	15.3	4
Nathan Nolin	2	1	9	4.5	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dantavious Parker	9	28	154	17.1	5.5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Chip Reeves	11	3	9	.800	3	0	22	363	33	16.5	3
Austin Silvoy	10	1	-15	-1.5	-15	0	13	182	18.2	14	0
Shawn Southward	12	100	574	47.8	5.7	10	10	94	7.8	9.4	0
D.J. Taylor	3	8	71	23.7	8.9	0	0	0	0	0	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Travis Boyd	2	3	41	20.5	13.7	0
Jason Bruce	10	20	260	26	13	2
Jonathan Chandler	1	0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Cherry	11	20	260	23.6	13	1
Andrew Davis	8	13	149	18.6	11.5	2
Tebiarus Gill	11	44	553	50.3	12.6	6
Maurice Greer	10	6	59	5.9	9.8	0
DuJuan Harris	12	23	193	16.1	8.4	1
Josh Jarboe	8	14	236	29.5	16.9	1
Jerrel Jernigan	12	62	947	78.9	15.3	4
Zack Marcum	12	33	315	26.3	9.5	1
Chip Reeves	11	22	363	33	16.5	3
Austin Silvoy	10	13	182	18.2	14	0
Shawn Southward	12	10	94	7.8	9.4	0
Cornelius Williams	11	18	320	29.1	17.8	2

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Sam Glusman	5	-	-	-	-	-	7	9	80.0%	9	9	100.0%	30
Michael Taylor	8	-	-	-	-	-	9	10	90.0%	38	40	100.0%	65

#1 Alabama Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Star Jackson	2	70.0	13	18	72.2	116	58	6.4	0	0	6	3	1.5	.500	0	-	-
Greg McElroy	13	93.0	192	315	61	2450	188.5	7.8	17	4	47	110	8.5	2.3	1	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	3	16	108	36	6.8	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terry Grant	7	40	166	23.7	4.2	3	3	47	6.7	15.7	0
Mark Ingram	13	249	1542	118.6	6.2	15	30	322	24.8	10.7	3
Star Jackson	2	6	3	1.5	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julio Jones	12	2	4	.300	2	0	42	573	47.8	13.6	4
Marquis Maze	10	4	7	.700	1.8	0	30	519	51.9	17.3	2
Greg McElroy	13	47	110	8.5	2.3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Trent Richardson	13	126	642	49.4	5.1	6	14	107	8.2	7.6	0
Roy Upchurch	10	46	290	29	6.3	2	12	72	7.2	6	1

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Earl Alexander	3	4	52	17.3	13	0
Michael Bowman	1	1	7	7	7	0
Preston Dial	3	3	25	8.3	8.3	0
Brandon Gibson	2	2	25	12.5	12.5	0
Terry Grant	7	3	47	6.7	15.7	0
Darius Hanks	9	17	272	30.2	16	3
Mark Ingram	13	30	322	24.8	10.7	3
Julio Jones	12	42	573	47.8	13.6	4
Marquis Maze	10	30	519	51.9	17.3	2
Mike McCoy	3	10	149	49.7	14.9	1
Colin Peek	10	26	313	31.3	12	3
Trent Richardson	13	14	107	8.2	7.6	0
Brad Smelley	5	7	50	10	7.1	0
Roy Upchurch	10	12	72	7.2	6	1
Michael Williams	2	3	29	14.5	9.7	0

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Jeremy Shelley	1	-	-	-	-	-	0	1	0	1	1	100.0%	1
Leigh Tiffin	13	-	-	-	-	-	29	33	90.0%	39	42	90.0%	126

Poll

Who wins this matcup?

UK vs. Alabama: Breaking Down the Rolling Tide

Ken Howlett — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 10:03:16 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

Did Rich Brooks make his point this week? We're about to find out.

Browse more photos »

The Kentucky Wildcats enter today's tilt (12:20 EST) with college football royalty, in great need of affirmation. After last weekend's titanic sinking at the hands of the Florida Gators, the 'Cats' collective psyche needs a renovation. And there is nothing better to renovate the soul, than a win over No. 3 Alabama (4-0, 1-0).

That was pretty easy to type, but it will much more difficult to execute. After-all, Alabama comes into today's contest, perhaps the most impressive team in the country, up to this point in the season. The Tide have totally dominated their opponents since the second half of their initial contest with then No. 7 Virginia Tech (a 34-24 'Bama win), outscoring their foes 146-35.

Alabama not only overwhelms their opponents with stifling defense, the Tide offense is averaging over 40 points per game, a rather large number considering the preseason questions about the quarterback position. Simply put, Alabama is a dangerously complete football team, and here's why ...

Alabama Offensive Personnel

Greg McElroy -- 6'3", 220 lb junior quarterback: This year, McElroy's first as a starter, he has completed 63 of 93 passes (67.7%) for 938 yards (234.5 yards per game), seven touchdowns, and one interception.

Versus Arkansas last week, McElroy completed 17 of 24 passes for 291 yards, and three touchdowns (no interceptions). He came into the season as one of the "Mystery Men of the SEC," a club chock-full of unproven quarterback talent. McElroy, though, has played brilliantly. The UK secondary is in for a real challenge Saturday afternoon.

Mark Ingram -- 5'10", 215 lb sophomore running back: In 2009, Ingram has rushed 61 times for 347 yards (5.7 yards per carry), and four touchdowns. He's also caught 13 passes for 141 yards (10.8 yards per reception) and three touchdowns. Last season, in earning Third Team All-SEC honors (Phil Steele), as well as making the All-SEC Freshmen Team, Ingram rushed 143 times for 728 yards (5.1 ypc), and a freshman school record 12 touchdowns, while splitting time with Glen Coffee (now of the San Francisco 49er's). His father, Mark Ingram, played for the New York Giants, and was a key figure in the 1992 Giants Super Bowl win -- Last season versus UK (a 17-14 Tide victory), Ingram ran 11 times for 66 yards (6.0 ypc) and a touchdown.

Bullish, yet speedy runner presents a real problem for UK's defense. His combination of speed and strength is not a combo Kentucky's defense has handled with aplomb in previous contests.

Trent Richardson -- 5'11", 220 lb freshman running back: This season Richardson has rushed 38 times for 280 yards (7.4 ypc) and four touchdowns. He's also made five receptions for 42 yards (8.4 ypr). Richardson is the reigning SEC Freshman of the Week after carrying the ball nine times for 65 yards (7.2 ypc) and a touchdown, in last week's game against Arkansas. Coming out of high school in Pensacola, Florida, Richardson was rated the No. 6 overall prospect in the nation by Rivals. He was a Parade, USA Today, and SuperPrep All-America. In his senior year in high school, the five-star athlete rushed 225 times for 2,090 yards (9.3 ypc) and 26 touchdowns.

In 'Bama's game last week versus Arkansas, Richardson exploded for a 52-yard touchdown run, which followed up his 35-yard run for six versus Florida International earlier in the year.

Terry Grant -- 5'9", 190 lb junior running back: On the year, Grant has ran 40 times for 166 yards (4.2 ypc), and three touchdowns. He's also snagged three passes for 47 yards (15.7 ypr). He started at the running back spot in 2007 for the Tide when he ran for 891 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2008, Grant rushed 35 times for 88 yards (2.5 ypc) and one touchdown.

Grant unleashed a 42-yard touchdown run versus Florida International earlier this season.

Roy Upchurch -- 6'0", 205 lb senior running back: In 2009, Upchurch has run for 107 yards on 11 carries (9.7 ypc), and scored one touchdown. He's caught three passes for 10 yards (3.3 ypr). He played in 10 games in 2008, recording 350 rushing yards on 58 carries (6.0 ypc), and nine catches for 101 yards (11.2 ypr). In 2007, Upchurch played in 12 games; he carried the ball 50 times for 237 yards (4.4 ypc) and one touchdown. He also caught seven passes for 51 yards (7.3 ypr) -- Last season versus UK, Upchurch carried the ball five times for 19 yards (3.9 ypc).

Julio Jones -- 6'4", 210 lb sophomore wide receiver: In three games this season, the reigning SEC Freshman of the Year has caught 7 passes for 120 yards (17.1 ypr), and one touchdown. Last year Jones started all 14 Alabama games, becoming only the 11th freshman Tide football player to start 'Bama's opening game since freshmen became eligible in 1972. In 2008, Jones caught 58 passes for 924 yards (15.9 ypr), and four touchdowns -- Last season versus UK, he made three catches for 52 yards (17.3 ypr).

Last week versus Arkansas, Jones caught a 50-yard touchdown pass. One of the most talented receivers in the country, Jones will receive attention from Kentucky cornerback Trevard Lindley. Their battle might go a long way in determining who's happy, and who ain't, come the final horn.

Marquis Maze -- 5'10", 179 lb sophomore wide receiver: This year, Maze has caught eight passes for 194 yards (24.2 ypr) and two touchdowns. He started four games as a freshman in 2008, recording 11 catches for 137 yards (12.5 ypr) -- Last season versus UK, Maze started, but did not make a catch.

Maze caught an 80-yard bomb for a touchdown last week versus Arkansas, to go along with a 34-yard touchdown reception.

Mike McCoy -- 6'3", 215 lb senior wide receiver: In 2009, McCoy has caught eight passes for 138 yards (17.2 ypr), and one touchdown. In 2008, he started nine games along side Julio Jones, and made 16 catches for 191 yards (11.9 ypr) -- He did not play against UK last season due to a hamstring injury.

Colin Peek -- 6'6", 255 lb senior tight end: This season Peek has made 8 catches for 95 yards (11.9 ypr). A Georgia Tech transfer, Peek sat out last season, but in his sophomore year for the Yellow Jackets, he caught 25 passes for 258 yards (10.1 ypr). and a touchdown.

Brad Smelley -- 6'3", 218 lb sophomore tight end: In 2009, Smelley has caught three passes for 12 yards (4.0 ypr). He came off of his redshirt last year in the seventh game of the season against Ole Miss. Over the second half of last year, he caught seven passes for 98 yards (14.0 ypr). Smelley's brother, Chris, played quarterback at South Carolina, and now plays baseball at Alabama.

Alabama Special Team's Dynamo

Javier Arenas -- 5'9", 198 lb senior kick returner/defensive back: Arenas has returned 15 punts this year for 285 yards (19.0 yards per return). He's returned five kick-offs for a total of 141 yards (28.2 ypr). In 2008, the Second Team All-SEC performer averaged 15.9 yards per punt return, and 23.6 yards per kick-off return. Also, in '08 he returned three punts for touchdowns -- 87, 80, and 73 yards. In 2007, he returned 21 punts for 323 yards (15.4 ypr), and one touchdown, as well as 27 kick-offs for 657 yards (24.3 ypr). In 2006, Arenas returned 31 punts for 286 yards (9.2) and two touchdowns, to go along with 18 kick-off returns for 313 yards (17.4). Arenas is Alabama's record-holder in the following categories: Punt Return Yardage (Career) - 1,544: Punt Return Yardage (Season) - 650 ('08): Punt Return Yardage (Game) - 153 (vs. Ole Miss last year) -- Last season versus UK, Arenas returned four punts for 52 yards.

What's been keeping UK special teams coach Steve Ortmayer up at night, Javier Arenas my friend, Javier Arenas.

Alabama Defensive Personnel

Rolando McClain -- 6'4", 258 lb junior linebacker: The First Team All-SEC (Third Team All-America by the AP), has recorded 23 tackles (15 solo), 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, and three quarterback hurries in 2009. McClain is a finalist for the Butkus Award, given to the nations top linebacker -- Last season versus UK, McClain led the Tide in tackles with 10 (four solo). He also returned a first quarter Mike Hartline fumble four-yards for a touchdown.

Mark Barron -- 6'2", 215 lb sophomore defensive back: In 2009, Barron has made 20 tackles (eight solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, one interception and four pass breakups.

Terrence Cody -- 6'5", 365 lb senior defensive lineman: "Mount Cody," as he is nicknamed, has recorded 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one pass breakup,and one quarterback hurry in 2009. The First Team All-America anchors the defense that is second in the nation (and first in the SEC) in rush defense, allowing only 47.3 yards per game -- Last season versus UK, Cody recorded two assisted tackles, and allowed UK to run for only 35 yards.

Eryk Anders -- 6'2", 227 lb senior linebacker: This year Anders has made 19 tackles (9 solo), 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and three quarterback hurries -- Last season versus UK, Anders executed two tackles.

Javier Arenas -- 5'9", 198 lb senior defensive back: In 2009, Arenas has made 18 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, and two pass breakups -- Last season versus UK, Arenas recorded six tackles (4 solo).

Brandon Deaderick -- 6'4", 287 lb senior defensive end: The former Elizabethtown High School stand-out has recorded 5 tackles in 2009. Coming off a gunshot wound suffered the week prior to Alabama's opener against Virgina Tech, Deaderick has played in all four Tide games, but he has yet to start. Saturday, Deaderick will be lining up across from his high school teammate, UK's Zipp Duncan -- Last season versus UK, Deaderick had two tackles.

Tide Tidbits

Alabama gives up only 1.7 yards per rush to their opponents ... Florida International ran for one yard on 26 carries ... The Tide receivers are averaging 14.2 yards per catch ... 'Bama has converted 45% of their third down conversion tries ... Opposing quarterbacks are completing only 48.4% of their passes (59-122) against the Tide ... 'Bama has recorded 13 sacks ... Alabama's punt return average - 18.8 yards, their opponents - 4.3 yards ... Virginia Tech scored 24 points on the Tide, but averaged only 2.1 yards per carry ... Florida International had a 96-yard kick-off return for a touchdown against the Tide ... Alabama has outscored their opponents 162-52 in their four games ... The Tide held Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett to only 12-35 passing (34.3%) for 160 yards, one touchdown and one interception ... Mallett was sacked three times.

Alabama Accolades

Alabama is ranked in the top-11 in the country in the following categories: 2nd - Rush Defense (47.3 ypg); 2nd - Total Defense (202.5 ypg); 5th - Offensive Pass Efficiency (169.0); 8th - Total Offense (490.5 ypg); 9th - Scoring Offense (40.5 ppg); 10th - Rush Offense (234.3 ypg); 10th - Tackles for Loss (8.0); 11th - Punt Return Average (18.8).

CliffsNotes Analysis ("Must" Edition)

1. UK must be mentally focused.

2. UK must not commit silly, mental mistakes, i.e. excessive penalties.

3. UK must not start playing in the second quarter. The game starts at 12:20 fellas.

4. UK must run the ball. Some how, some way.

5. UK must not allow big plays, which 'Bama has a penchant for.

6. UK must throw for more than 85 yards (Hartline's total against Florida)..

7. UK must find a way to get Randall Cobb into space (no, not the heavens, open space).

8. UK must not allow the 'Bama backs to run as with gifted with impunity (less than 175 would be nice).

9. UK must not average less than 10.0 yards per catch.

10. UK must score (twice would be nice) a special teams or defensive touchdown.

11. UK must play like Wildcats, or risk ending up a skinned cat.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Tide!

Game Film Breakdown: Julio Jones

outsidethesidelines — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:00:21 -0000

When he was getting game clips uploaded, flaco asked me to address the touchdown pass to Julio Jones out of the Wildcat, and I also so he uploaded the video of Julio giving out free piggyback rides later in the game, so let's take a minute to look closer at those two plays. This is a bit of a blurb piece that won't be as detailed as the usual individual play breakdowns, but we'll still look closer to see what happened and what we can learn.

First off, let's look at the touchdown pass in the Wildcat. Of course, we used the Wildcat quite a bit in the season opener against Virginia Tech, and though it has generally seen little usage since we left Atlanta, it was still clearly something in our offensive repertoire. Now, coming into the Arkansas game about the only thing that we had done out of the Wildcat was to just run the football straight into the line. Greg McElroy always stayed on the field when we ran it, but the biggest wrinkle we had shown to date was a jet sweep around end. In the previous three games, we had shown absolutely nothing even remotely hinting at a pass play.

Of course, though, we had been sitting on at least one pass play all along. Watch the following video of the touchdown pass to Julio.

Notice that everything we do gives the impression of a run, and in particular a run to the right. Look closely and you will notice that we have revamped the offensive line for this particular. We have taken left tackle James Carpenter and lined him up outside of right tackle Drew Davis, and in Carpenter's absence we have lined up Colin Peek's back-up at tight end, the 6'7, 270+ pound Michael Williams (who, as an aside, as actually been playing quite a bit lately). With the particularly physical Julio Jones, plus Preston Dial, also lined up to the right, it certainly gives the look of one of our typical Wildcat runs. When Terry Grant comes down in motion at the snap, everyone is looking for either Grant to get the hand-off or for Ingram to pound the middle of the line.

But watch Julio Jones closely. He has safety Matt Harris (#39) lined up right in front of him, and while Jones feigns a block, he quickly runs right by the safety. Cornerback Tramain Thomas (#5) was playing the middle of the field and probably had deep responsibility on this play, but again everyone just lets Jones run right by them, Thomas included. They are all looking to come up and stop the run, and it's entirely too late before they realize that Julio has gotten far behind the last line of defense. The pass from McElroy is a bit underthrown, but it's a safe throw that Julio is almost guaranteed to catchcatch, and once he secures the pass Thomas cannot bring him down in the open field. Touchdown Alabama.

It's a big play for the Tide against the Hogs, but perhaps an even bigger one moving forward. There is no rocket science behind this play, simply put. Arkansas sold out to stop the run, and we slipped a wide receiver behind them for a long pass. Moving forward, though, opposing teams will be forced to respect the passing attack once we lined up in the Wildcat, and that will make the rushing attack out of the Wildcat that much more effective.

The second play I want to look at here is Julio Jones' second catch of the day. This play comes with 'Bama leading 21-7 mid-way through the third quarter, driving into Arkansas territory. First down didn't go so well, so the Tide here is faced with a 2nd and 9 situation from just inside the Arkansas 35-yard line.

Now, it goes without saying that this is a fairly obvious passing situation. However, when we come out in the Pistol with two tight ends in the game, the Hogs, apparently respecting the ability of our running game, nevertheless puts eight defenders in the box.

This means that Julio Jones, aligned to the far left of the formation, gets single coverage against Arkansas cornerback Rudell Crim (#4). Watch the follow video of the pass to Julio.

With single coverage, Crim opts to play well off Jones, obviously a smart move. With almost ten yards of cushion, however, Jones just runs a simple three yard hitch route (something that he likely did on a hot route once he saw the cushion). And notice what happens here. This is a simple three yard hitch route that ought to, if completed, gain about three yards. But, of course, this is Julio Jones we are talking about here. He catches the little three yard hitch, throws Crim to the side, and then carries nine Arkansas defenders down the sideline. It's simple... takes a three yard hitch, pulverizes a defender, and the next thing you know that three yard hitch is a fifteen yard gain.

So what did we learn? Play off Julio Jones at your own risk.

Running Back Success Rates Against Virginia Tech

Nico2.0 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:22:21 -0000

I've finally gotten around to crunching the numbers on RB success rates against Virginia Tech. Needless to say, their defense is a wee bit more stout than that of Florida International and North Texas and the numbers bear that out. Our guys put up extremely gaudy numbers against those overmatched defenses, but didn't manage nearly as well against Arkansas as you saw yesterday. The number against VT are somewhere in between. I'm going to run down the RBs in the order they received their first carry, but will group the receiver handoffs in one group at the end rather than create entirely different spreadsheets for a single carry.

Here's a quick reminder about what it takes for a carry to be deemed successful:

1st down: a gain of 40% of the yardage needed
2nd down: a gain of 60% of the yardage needed
3rd & 4th down: a gain of 100% of the yardage needed

First up, Mark Ingram's numbers:

vs Virginia Tech / 9.5.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	26	150	5.8	1	3	35	11.7	1

One stunning thing I discovered processing the numbers was, that by this metric, the team didn't have a single successful rush in the first quarter out of seven carries. Though we managed nine points in the quarter, it wasn't because of our ground game. Our designed run plays earned us a whole nine yards one seven plays. At the end of the first quarter, McElroy was our leading rusher by a mile. We got lucky with short fields for scoring drives of 26 and 30 yards and the fact that Tiffin was on in the first quarter.

I didn't check to see how many times we threw on first down, but good grief, we ran it a lot on first down. 20 of Ingram's 26 carries came on first down (including a 1st & 20.) His running seemed rather boom or bust against VT as he had seven carries of 9 yards or more, but 13 carries of 2 yards or less. That's 22 out of 26 of his carries leaving only four carries ranging from 3 to 8 yards.

vs Virginia Tech / 9.5.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0

Grant only had two carries for 2 yards against VT. His size combined with VTs defensive skill obviously meant he wasn't going to get a lot of carries and he didn't. A sample size of two carries isn't a lot to go on, but his carries did come in the zero percent RB success rate first quarter.

vs Virginia Tech / 9.5.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Roy Upchurch	7	90	12.9	1	0	0	0	0

Upchurch's running against VT was also in the "boom or bust" category. Three runs of 19 yards or greater and a TD with his other four carries coming in at 2 yards or less. I'm not really sure how a fumbled rush fits in statistically, but in terms of gaining necessary yardage, it was a success, so we're just going to mark it down that way for now. Obviously protecting the ball is of paramount importance, so you could just as well argue that it's a failed rushing attempt. At 33 yards, it basically equalled a good punt to pin VT inside their own 10.

vs Virginia Tech / 9.5.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	3	10	3.3	0	0	0	0	0

Just a handful of carries in killing off the clock. A good time to get his first carries at the collegiate level.

Rushing stats for receivers aren't provided by SBN's widget generator, so there's only a spreadsheet for this one. We did two designed plays against VT featuring receivers carrying the ball. Both plays resulted in a loss of one yard. For me though, it was nice to see us not being so vanilla on offense. There was a successful receiver carry against FIU and with the wildcat, we're mixing it up more than we have in a long time and so far, it's been fun to watch.

The overall success rate for the team was 40%, which is way better than it was against Arkansas.

Running Back Success Rates vs. Arkansas

Nico2.0 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 00:14:20 -0000

Sweet mercy. Be prepared to read some dismal numbers everybody. The numbers against Virginia Tech (which I still need to post) weren't great, but these are abysmal. I know everyone knew the running game didn't go well against the Razorbacks, but seeing it in spreadsheets makes it look even worse than the ugly truth we already knew about. As always, running backs are listed in order of their first carry:

vs Arkansas / 9.26.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	17	50	2.9	1	3	21	7	1

Nothing really special about Ingram's day outside of the two TDs (one of which was a reception.) Only one carry over 10 yards and another four at five yards or greater (though only one of those was a success due to the down and distance when they were made.) Needless to say, they were shutting the run down quite nicely.

vs Arkansas / 9.26.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	9	65	7.2	1	2	16	8	0

As OTS noted in this post, Richardson's 52 yard TD run should've been a loss. His success on that carry was due to an incredible amount of piss poor tackling (I believe four guys had a legit shot at him) and hard running on Richardson's part. Take that carry away and his numbers are just as bad as everyone else's. The 7.2 YPC for Richardson against Arkansas is the exact reason for this kind of analytical breakdown. That run was an outlier that massively skewed the overall performance numbers.

vs Arkansas / 9.26.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	13	16	1.2	0	1	18	18	0

Most of Grant's carries came in garbage time where we were just killing the clock and attempting to not run up the score (unlike many other teams out there.) I knew we were running, Arkansas knew we were running, everyone knew we were running and the numbers reflect that they were stacking the box.

We ended the day with a 23% success rate as a team. Thank goodness the passing game was able to light it up.

Saturday Lessons: September 26

Year2 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 11:00:33 -0000

by James Crisp - AP

Ouch.

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Superman is not indestructible.

In the end, no one will remember the 41-7 final score, the 31-0 first quarter score, or the avalanche of yellow flags and mistakes that Kentucky ultimately fell under. It's the Tebow Got Hurt Game now, two years after he sustained a bad shoulder injury in Lexington that didn't get surgically fixed until after the 2008 season. For two weeks we'll hear questions about why Urban Meyer didn't pull his quarterback sooner, but he never has pulled Tebow in similar situations in the past. The only irony is that the big knockout hit did not come on a run, as his detractors have predicted for three years, but on a pocket pass that they've been saying he needed to do more of all along.

As for on the field things, the Gator offense is an entirely different animal with a healthy Jeffrey Demps. Emmanuel Moody also continued to impress, but he had a curiously low five carries on the night. That is, it would be curious if it didn't happen every week.

Texas found its groove.

Not that UTEP is any good, but Texas seriously put on a show. The Longhorns scored 64 points, rolled up 639 yards, and held the Miners to 53 total yards. UTEP was a paltry one of 12 on third down and the only score was on a pick six of Colt McCoy. We knew the offense would be good, but so far the defense is looking good too.

Alabama is a very complete team.

I guess we could say we knew that, but it all was on display as Alabama really controlled its game with Arkansas from beginning to end. For all the love showered on Ryan Mallett, who appears to be Gary Danielson's new secondary crush (behind Tebow, his primary) now that Matthew Stafford is in the NFL, Greg McElroy was by far the best quarterback in the game.

Mark Ingram and Terry Grant never really got on track on the ground, but Trent Richardson picked up some slack and with McElory going bombs away against a bad Arkansas pass defense, it never mattered. The Tide defense was also impressive, holding the potent Hogs to seven points and 254 total yards. This team doesn't appear to have too many weaknesses.

The top ten will be a revolving door all year.

Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, USC, BYU, Ole Miss, Cal, Miami, and Penn State have all lost as top ten teams in the AP Poll. This is only one month into the season. On the one hand, BYU and Miami earned their way in thanks to big wins and some surprisingly resume-based voting from the pollsters, and VT and Ohio State lost to fellow top ten teams. On the other, teams like Oklahoma State and Ole Miss lost to expose faulty preseason analysis.

Now look at who's likely to be in the new top ten. Does anyone think LSU will be in it for long after some less than impressive performances? Does Boise State have the kind of schedule that supports them sitting up this high all season? Can Virginia Tech really run the table in the still-crazy ACC? Does Ohio State have enough offense to justify being there? We're just going to keep going through this over and over all year long.

The SEC West is more competitive than we know.

Alabama at this point is by far the best team, but with Ole Miss falling back to the pack and Mississippi State giving LSU a bona fide scare, everyone in the division has at least looked decent at some point this year. I mean, Arkansas exploded against Georgia, and Auburn rolled up 50+ this week for the first time in years after taking down West Virginia. The whole thing is a jumbled mess, but for the most part in a good way. It's not that everyone is bad, it's that more are good than we thought. This could be a really wild race down the stretch.

Arizona State still has no answer for A.J. Green.

174 yards on just eight catches. A grab to set up the game winning field goal. You can't ask for much more from A.J. Green, who is by far the best player on Georgia's team. The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils badly, but three turnovers kept this one closer for longer than it probably should have been. Georgia is just like FSU and South Carolina at this point, in that we don't know which team is going to show up to each game. At least with the Bulldogs, we know they'll probably win.

There's nothing easy left for Tennessee.

The Vols had to outlast a very game Ohio Bobcats team to pull out their second victory of the year. It's encouraging that Jonathan Crompton was able to go 34 attempts with just one pick, but his 6.5 yards per pass average isn't stellar. The 34-23 score was not misleading, as Tennessee outgained Ohio 399-340, though it is strange that the Vols gave up 319 passing yards a week after shutting down Florida's passing attack. The real concern is injuries now, and the fact it took four quarters to put away a team that needed overtime to beat North Texas.

Survive and advance.

That's the new motto for everyone this year. Maybe we are reliving 2007 after all.

Running Back Success Rates: Alabama vs. North Texas

Nico2.0 — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:00:20 -0000

Much like the Florida International game, our success rates against a defense like North Texas aren't going to tell us a ton about our running game, but still, we want to provide the information for your perusal. I've been delayed on processing the VT numbers and will have those ready on Wednesday or Thursday. Anyway, four backs carried in our game against UNT and, as always, they'll be listed in the order they got their first carry. For those of you that need a refresher on RB success rate, it goes a little something like this: a carry is successful if on...

1st down: the RB gains 40% of the yardage needed
2nd down: the RB gains 60% of the yardage needed
3rd & 4th down: the RB gains 100% of the yardage needed

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	8	91	11.4	1	3	38	12.7	1

Ingram had another solid day with 129 all-purpose yards (91 rushing, 38 receiving) and he had both a rushing and receiving TD. Actually, I guess you can't get much more perfect than having every carry you take be deemed a success.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	11	87	7.9	1	1	3	3	0

Richardson turned in another solid performance as well. Nothing you can really complain about when 73% of his carries were successful. Two of his three unsuccessful carries were only a yard short of being deemed successful so he was two yards shy of being 10 of 11. His carry for (-1) yards in the first half was the only negative play we had all day as far as designed runs were concerned.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	19	79	4.2	2	2	29	1 4.5	0

Grant got more carries than any other back in the game. He had as many as Ingram and Richardson combined. Considering the fact that the lion's share of his carries came in the 2nd half behind non-starters, I'd say his overall 63% is quite good.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	1	14	14	0	0	0	0	0

With only one carry, there's no need to construct a chart for Goode. His 14 yard carry was on a first & 10, putting his success rate at 100% for the day.

Needless to say, we pretty much ran the ball at will against North Texas. Our overall team success rate was 74%. We had eight carries of 10 yards or more and 21 carries of five yards or better. Move the ball like that and it's nearly impossible not to win. This analyses will get more interesting once we delve into conference play.

Week Three Preview: Alabama vs North Texas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:30:14 -0000

North Texas QB Riley Dodge

When the 2004 season came to a close, North Texas fans had to be feeling pretty well. With a blowout win over Arkansas State in the regular season finale, the Mean Green wrapped up their fourth consecutive Sun Belt Conference championship and were headed to New Orleans for their fourth consecutive bowl game. Unfortunately for the North Texas faithful, however, the wheels fell off the following year. Then head coach Darrell Dickey would go 2-9 and 3-9, respectively, over the course of the next two seasons, bringing his nine-year tenure to an end.

Looking to breathe new life into the program, North Texas went into the high schools ranks and hired Todd Dodge, head coach of Carroll High School, one of the nation's most prolific high school football programs. Leading the Carroll Dragons, Dodge went a combined went a combined 79-1 in his final five years at Carroll with four state championships coming in five years -- the only loss came in the state championship game in 2003 in a 16-15 loss to Katy. Dodge had previously coached at North Texas in the early 1990's, and having that kind of success just 20 miles south of Denton proved to be too tempting for the Mean Green administration to pass over.

Unfortunately, the Dodge era at North Texas hasn't exactly gone to plan. He went 2-10 in his debut campaign, and things got worse in 2008 as the program fell to 1-11. Making matters even worse, the losses generally weren't even remotely close. Nine of the eleven losses came with a margin of defeat of 28 points or more, and Rice even managed to put 77 points up on the board. The sole win came after winning a 51-40 shootout over Western Kentucky, a Division 1-AA team trying to make the jump up to the highest classification. As a result, not surprisingly, Dodge comes into the 2009 campaign with an increasingly warm seat. His tenure hasn't been entirely a disaster -- he hire created a lot of publicity, he has made some strides recruiting the Dallas area, and interest in the program is clearly up -- but everyone knows that this game is ultimately a game of wins and losses, and no coach with a career record of 3-21 can ever feel safe in his job.

Offensively, North Texas likes to spread the field and throw the football. Their base formation is a four-wide receiver set, and they operate almost solely out of some variation of that personnel grouping. There are no fullbacks on the roster, nor are their any tight ends. It's a spread team at its core and they make very few intentions of doing anything else.

At quarterback, normally, is Riley Dodge, son of head coach Todd Dodge. The freshman Dodge is a dual-threat player who is probably the biggest recruit the North Texas program will ever get -- he was committed to Texas before spurning the 'Horns to play for his father -- and he's legitimately a good player. Though he's a bit of a small player, he can make plays with his feet and he is an accurate passer. Fortunately for the Tide, however, Dodge separated his shoulder last weekend against Ball State, and he will not play this Saturday. In his place will be Nathan Tune, a senior, who is more of a traditional pocket passer without near the mobility and athleticism that Dodge brings to the table.Tune's start against Alabama will be the first start of his career.

The wide receiver corps, likewise, is also a major question mark at this point. They have only one returning starter from a year ago, sophomore Sam Roberson, and it's been a unit that has struggled to date. Mike Outlaw dropped two critical passes last week in the loss to Ohio, and outside of one long catch-and-run by JUCO transfer Jamaal Jackson, the unit as a whole has failed to generate any big plays.

RB Cam Montgomery

With question marks at quarterback and wide receiver -- already a big negative for a spread passing team -- the strength of the offense becomes the line play and the tailbacks. The offensive line itself is a veteran group that returns all five starters from a year ago, and they do have as many as eight linemen with meaningful experience. Unfortunately for North Texas, however, starting left tackle Victor Gill will also miss this game with a separated shoulder, and that has caused a re-shuffling of the offensive line. It's still a pretty decent group even without Gill, but his absence clearly makes life easier for the Crimson Tide defense.

With both the starting quarterback and starting left tackle missing this game, not to mention question marks at wide receiver, expect tailback Cam Montgomery to take on a pretty big role in this game, and don't sell short on Mr. Montgomery. He plays the part physically, coming in at around 6'1 and 220 pounds, and he's a physical back who is difficult to bring down. He was a four-star recruit coming out of the Mississippi JUCO ranks, and he rushed for almost 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns last year. He'll have an even bigger year this year, if he can stay healthy, and you may very well see him playing on Sunday.

Defensively, North Texas was absolutely atrocious last year in every single facet, effectively finishing as nearly the worst team in the country in almost every single major defensive category. In the off-season, though, Dodge brought back former defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach, and the early returns look good. Eight starters return from a year ago, and through two games the unit as a whole looks much improved. They only gave up 10 points to Ball State, and the following week gave up only 13 points in regulation to Ohio. It's nothing overly special, of course, but the defense does look to be a relatively solid one thus far, and honestly there are some talented players on that side of the ball. The defensive line is a bit green, but Craig Robertson and Tobe Nwigwe are both very good linebackers, and honestly cornerback Kylie Hill would probably be one of the SEC's better defensive backs, and he will probably play in the NFL next year.

For the Tide, offensively we will probably continue to do what we have done to date. We will have a multiple attack that will look to both establish the run and throw the football efficiently. Roy Upchurch is almost certainly out of this game, and likewise Julio Jones probably will not play, but the Tide should have plenty of skill position firepower to get the job done even without those two participating. Expect a lot more touches for Trent Richardson, Terry Grant, Mike McCoy, and perhaps Michael Bowman. Likewise, on defense, don't expect to see anything overly different than what we typically do. The biggest adjustment will likely be in terms of personnel. If the Mean Green spreads the field with four wide receivers as usual, expect to see a lot of nickel and dime packages from the Tide, and specifically look to see more playing time for the likes of Dre Kirkpatrick, Robby Green, Ali Sharrief, Tyrone King, and Chris Rogers.

And that is effectively the North Texas game in a nut shell. After being easily one of the worst teams in the country from 2005-2008, if early returns hold true, the Mean Green looks to be an improved team this year, but even so it's a team that should give Alabama no real trouble. And frankly, with Riley Dodge and Victor Gill missing this game, the Tide simply ought to beat North Texas like a drum. No excuses. In a game like this -- at the risk of causing another ULM-esque disaster solely due to bad karma with the Football Gods -- it's not a matter of whether you win, it's a matter of how you win, and how healthy you are once the clock reads 0:00. Last week's win over Florida International was a solid victory, but with Julio Jones banging up his knee, Roy Upchurch getting a high ankle sprain, and Damion Square being knocked out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL, it was a very costly victory. For the North Texas game, the Tide should win with relative ease, but we all just have to hope that the price of victory isn't quite so high against the Mean Green.

Hope for the best.

Running Back Success Rates vs. FIU: Grant, Ingram, Goode

Nico2.0 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:33:58 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Terry Grant runs for a 42 yard TD against FIU.

Browse more photos »

Earlier this week, I posted the RB success rate data and charts against FIU for Roy Upchurch, Julio Jones and Trent Richardson. Some real life business that I had to attend to earlier in the week prevented me from doing all six carriers at once and so now I present the other three ball carriers from last weekend's game: Terry Grant, Mark Ingram and Demetrius Goode. In the future, these will be posted the Monday after the game.

For a brief reminder of what makes a carry a successful carry:

1st down: Runner gains 40% of the necessary yardage
2nd down: Runner gains 60% of the necessary yardage
3rd & 4th down: Runner gains 100% of the necessary yardage

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	6	69	11.5	1	0	0	0	0

A very small sample size to work with, but basically, Terry got the job done when we put the ball in his hands last weekend. Though he only had six touches, he created a lot out of them gaining 69 yards and a TD. He only had two unsuccessful carries: a three yard loss on his first carry and a gain of three on a third down when four yards were needed. In the instance of the 3rd and 4, it was late in the game and we were just trying to kill the clock off and not kick a field goal/run up the score, so we went for it on 4th and 1 and Grant converted it. Needless to say, his highlight moment was breaking off a 42 yard touchdown run.

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	10	56	5.6	1	4	47	11.8	0

We weren't really sure how much we were going to see of Ingram against FIU, but he wound up playing a pretty good bit all things considered. He had 10 carries and four receptions for 103 all-purpose yards. Not too shabby for someone that probably wasn't functioning at 100%. Ingram got the lion's share of his carries in the first half and his three second half carries all occurred when it was still 20-14. Needless to say, we're deep at the position and could rely on others to wear their defense down. His percentage would've likely been higher if not for making a carry on the statistic-skewing down of 2nd & 25.

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	4	24	6	0	0	0	0	0

Goode made four of the last six carries of the game. Needless to say, it was clock killing time. That being said, he kept the chains moving and accomplished what he was sent in to do.

As OTS mentioned in the comments of the first post, this isn't very telling against Sun Belt defenses, but it's still good to look at. Once we get into the meat of the schedule, this kind of analysis will really tell us a lot more about our running game performance. I'm hoping to get the Virginia Tech game stats done tonight and posted this evening or tomorrow so we can see some data about our running game against a BCS defense.

Submit Your Questions for "Hey Todd!"

Todd — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

In your phone, talkin' footbaw...

Another week, another RBR Radio Hour(ish). Last week was a banner show with three callers (including one that scared the crap out of me so, seriously, if you call in don't just start talking; wait until we acknowledge you are on the line or I'll think the devil has gotten into my phone again and that's no fun for anyone), so let's see if we can't top that this week since the hour(ish) goes by so much faster ~~when we don't actually have to do anything~~ with y'all's help. Topics for tonight include, but are not limited to:

Pass Coverage Against FIU: Are we in trouble here or did they just throw something at us we weren't expecting?
Kick Coverage: Yes, we are in trouble here.
Injury Updates: There's some troublesome news for both sides this week. We'll go over who's banged up and not playing and who could possibly get into the game.
Terry Grant: Is it just me, or has this kid bulked up a little?
The Continual Rise of Greg McElroy: I told you so!
Is Trent Richardson the Greatest Running Back in the History of the Game?: Based on limited data against a lackluster defense, I have to say yes. [/Track 'em Tigers style hyperbole]

And of course, feel free to toss anything you want us to discuss into the comments section below. See you tonight, 8:00pm CST.