SB Nation - Glen Coffee

Three Keys for Alabama

Year2 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:00:15 -0000

Last year, Glen Coffee was the man for Alabama. He ground out 112 yards on 21 carries, including a beastly 18 yard touchdown run for the Tide's first score of the game. He was an important factor in Alabama being able to run its offense the way it wanted to run it and control the game for much of the third quarter.

Ingram played in last year's game too, but he had just 21 yards on eight carries (2.6 average). Obviously he's greatly improved over his freshman self, but something about Florida's defense stymied him last year. He must find what Coffee found, because another 16 carry/30 yard effort will put Bama in seriously bad shape.

Stop Florida's running backs.

Dan Mullen kind of stole my thunder on this one already, but it's true. Jeff Demps is a threat to take it 50 yards. Chris Rainey can juke guys out of their jocks. Emmanuel Moody is averaging over seven yards per carry. Florida's got some very dangerous options at tailback.

On option plays, it would behoove the Tide to focus on those guys. As tempting as it is to try to take a shot at the Golden Boy, the Golden Boy has a far lower average and median rush than the other guys do. Most of Tim Tebow's longest runs come on busted pass plays or designed runs disguised as pass plays, and there's not much you can do about that. However, make him be the ball carrier on the standard running plays. He'll get some yards, but he won't take it half way down the field.

Put pressure on Tebow in the pocket.

Many defenses get confused on what stopping Tim Tebow actually means. You can tell who are the ones that don't know because they celebrate wildly for stopping Tebow on a two or three yard rush. That's not stopping him though; it's just a side effect of having a big dude at quarterback run some option. It's a known issue with the UF offense, and the game plan is built knowing that will happen about seven or eight times a game.

Stopping Tebow is pressuring him, forcing him to make bad decisions, and getting him to turn it over. Throughout his whole career, his worst games have come when he's getting sacked repeatedly. The Florida offensive line has been shaky at times, and it even has an obvious vulnerable point in true freshman LT Xavier Nixon. Nixon has done well so far, but he's still a true freshman and he can and will be beat.

SEC Power Poll, Week Twelve

mlmintampa — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:02:45 -0000

Our SEC Power Poll ballot. Final results at Team Speed Kills on Wednesday.

1. Alabama: The biggest difference between Bama 2008 and Bama 2009 is that Mark Ingram is an improvement over Glen Coffee. Through 11 games, Ingram is averaging 127 ypg (5th nationally) with 12 touchdowns. Coffee was averaging 99 ypg and 8 touchdowns.

2. Florida: Between Alabama becoming a popular upset pick, Notre Dame again trying to chat up Urban Meyer, and a Big 12 quarterback securing the Heisman, 2009 is looking a lot like 2008 for the Gators. Aside from the offense sucking, of course.

3. LSU: Even my 13 year-old sister was screaming at Les Miles Saturday night. Granted, I have a sister who chose seeing "The Blind Side" over the Twilight movie last weekend.

4. Ole Miss: Proud weekend at Ole Miss; they defeated a division rival and shouted down racist cowards who tried to hijack a beautiful football weekend.

5. Arkansas: They've won four in a row and are scoring in buckets (8th nationally in scoring offense). But three of their four losses were on the road and they will visit LSU on Saturday.

6. Kentucky: If Morgan Newton can keep the train on the tracks and the ball in the bellies of Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb, they will hang with Tennessee. If the defense can force four turnovers like they did against Georgia, they will easily win and complete an epic turnaround after being 2-3 in mid-October.

7. Tennessee: Maybe Kiffin should find some women's basketball players to fill in his defensive roster.

8. Georgia: You know Georgia is having a bad season when they get sympathy from a Gator fan. Although, that's because their dog died, not because Joe Cox sucks.

9. Auburn: The Iron Bowl is going to be a long day for the Tigers. Ingram is going to run all over them.

10. South Carolina: Why is it that they are so terrible late in the season? Is something in the water in Columbia? Are they too focused on their mistress in Argentina?

11. Mississippi State: Beating Ole Miss Saturday in Starkville will make Dan Mullen Year One a huge success.

12. Vanderbilt: At least the season is over.

Mark Ingram Learns from His Mistakes

kleph — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:24:49 -0000

There was an interesting story about Mark Ingram in the Opelika-Auburn News today written by Ken Rogers. It told how the star running back had been concerned about a mis-block that had led to a sack of Greg McElroy. OTS and I went back over the tape and noticed a few interesting things.

The story describes the play resulting in a sack by Ole Miss linebacker Jonathan Cornell and defensive end Kentrell Lockett. “You know, that’s the only play I’ve been thinking about,” Ingram told McElroy according to the newspaper. “That’s the only play that’s been bothering me. I’ve been thinking about that play since it happened.”

So we went back and checked the tape. Sure enough, with six minutes left in the third quarter, there is McElroy getting pounded for an 11-yard loss.

Ingram is clearly outmatched by Lockett who has 50 lbs on him and is a full seven inches taller. He gets overpowered and Lockett is able to disrupt McElroy's throw. But the sack itself is made by Cornell who nails McElroy after running completely unimpeded through the Alabama backfield.

The goat of the play isn't Ingram, it's Alabama tight end Preston Dial who seems to have some kind of brain fart right there in the middle of the field. He makes no attempt to block Cornell or to be ready for the dump off pass to save his quarterback. It's an abysmal effort and we are just lucky McElroy wasn't seriously hurt on the play.

Yet, while Ingram may not be responsible for that particular set of grass stains on McElroy's jersey, he had a lot to do with some that got put there in the first quarter. On 1st and 10 at the 11:16 mark, McElroy takes the snap for a passing play and has just a moment to scan the field before his facemask is full of Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy.

But this time it is Ingram's missed block that leads to the sack and loss of three yards. He immediately realizes whats happens and rushes back but it's too late. And it's this play that has stuck in his mind after the game.

"When you get the quarterback hit pretty hard or a play doesn’t work because you missed your blocking assignment, it kind of sticks with you more than those good plays," Ingram told the newspaper. "I kept rewinding it and rewinding it again. ... I want to get better and take advantage of the mistake that I made."

Aside for the confusion about the play Ingram refers to, the story is a superb peek into Ingram's progress as a player. He explains a bit about how Glen Coffee helped him improve his game last year and how he's been able to use that on the field this season. It's also got some wonderful insight into the strategy Alabama employs to make the running game work. RBR says, "Check it out."

UK vs. Alabama: Breaking Down the Rolling Tide

Ken Howlett — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 10:03:16 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

Did Rich Brooks make his point this week? We're about to find out.

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The Kentucky Wildcats enter today's tilt (12:20 EST) with college football royalty, in great need of affirmation. After last weekend's titanic sinking at the hands of the Florida Gators, the 'Cats' collective psyche needs a renovation. And there is nothing better to renovate the soul, than a win over No. 3 Alabama (4-0, 1-0).

That was pretty easy to type, but it will much more difficult to execute. After-all, Alabama comes into today's contest, perhaps the most impressive team in the country, up to this point in the season. The Tide have totally dominated their opponents since the second half of their initial contest with then No. 7 Virginia Tech (a 34-24 'Bama win), outscoring their foes 146-35.

Alabama not only overwhelms their opponents with stifling defense, the Tide offense is averaging over 40 points per game, a rather large number considering the preseason questions about the quarterback position. Simply put, Alabama is a dangerously complete football team, and here's why ...

Alabama Offensive Personnel

Greg McElroy -- 6'3", 220 lb junior quarterback: This year, McElroy's first as a starter, he has completed 63 of 93 passes (67.7%) for 938 yards (234.5 yards per game), seven touchdowns, and one interception.

Versus Arkansas last week, McElroy completed 17 of 24 passes for 291 yards, and three touchdowns (no interceptions). He came into the season as one of the "Mystery Men of the SEC," a club chock-full of unproven quarterback talent. McElroy, though, has played brilliantly. The UK secondary is in for a real challenge Saturday afternoon.

Mark Ingram -- 5'10", 215 lb sophomore running back: In 2009, Ingram has rushed 61 times for 347 yards (5.7 yards per carry), and four touchdowns. He's also caught 13 passes for 141 yards (10.8 yards per reception) and three touchdowns. Last season, in earning Third Team All-SEC honors (Phil Steele), as well as making the All-SEC Freshmen Team, Ingram rushed 143 times for 728 yards (5.1 ypc), and a freshman school record 12 touchdowns, while splitting time with Glen Coffee (now of the San Francisco 49er's). His father, Mark Ingram, played for the New York Giants, and was a key figure in the 1992 Giants Super Bowl win -- Last season versus UK (a 17-14 Tide victory), Ingram ran 11 times for 66 yards (6.0 ypc) and a touchdown.

Bullish, yet speedy runner presents a real problem for UK's defense. His combination of speed and strength is not a combo Kentucky's defense has handled with aplomb in previous contests.

Trent Richardson -- 5'11", 220 lb freshman running back: This season Richardson has rushed 38 times for 280 yards (7.4 ypc) and four touchdowns. He's also made five receptions for 42 yards (8.4 ypr). Richardson is the reigning SEC Freshman of the Week after carrying the ball nine times for 65 yards (7.2 ypc) and a touchdown, in last week's game against Arkansas. Coming out of high school in Pensacola, Florida, Richardson was rated the No. 6 overall prospect in the nation by Rivals. He was a Parade, USA Today, and SuperPrep All-America. In his senior year in high school, the five-star athlete rushed 225 times for 2,090 yards (9.3 ypc) and 26 touchdowns.

In 'Bama's game last week versus Arkansas, Richardson exploded for a 52-yard touchdown run, which followed up his 35-yard run for six versus Florida International earlier in the year.

Terry Grant -- 5'9", 190 lb junior running back: On the year, Grant has ran 40 times for 166 yards (4.2 ypc), and three touchdowns. He's also snagged three passes for 47 yards (15.7 ypr). He started at the running back spot in 2007 for the Tide when he ran for 891 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2008, Grant rushed 35 times for 88 yards (2.5 ypc) and one touchdown.

Grant unleashed a 42-yard touchdown run versus Florida International earlier this season.

Roy Upchurch -- 6'0", 205 lb senior running back: In 2009, Upchurch has run for 107 yards on 11 carries (9.7 ypc), and scored one touchdown. He's caught three passes for 10 yards (3.3 ypr). He played in 10 games in 2008, recording 350 rushing yards on 58 carries (6.0 ypc), and nine catches for 101 yards (11.2 ypr). In 2007, Upchurch played in 12 games; he carried the ball 50 times for 237 yards (4.4 ypc) and one touchdown. He also caught seven passes for 51 yards (7.3 ypr) -- Last season versus UK, Upchurch carried the ball five times for 19 yards (3.9 ypc).

Julio Jones -- 6'4", 210 lb sophomore wide receiver: In three games this season, the reigning SEC Freshman of the Year has caught 7 passes for 120 yards (17.1 ypr), and one touchdown. Last year Jones started all 14 Alabama games, becoming only the 11th freshman Tide football player to start 'Bama's opening game since freshmen became eligible in 1972. In 2008, Jones caught 58 passes for 924 yards (15.9 ypr), and four touchdowns -- Last season versus UK, he made three catches for 52 yards (17.3 ypr).

Last week versus Arkansas, Jones caught a 50-yard touchdown pass. One of the most talented receivers in the country, Jones will receive attention from Kentucky cornerback Trevard Lindley. Their battle might go a long way in determining who's happy, and who ain't, come the final horn.

Marquis Maze -- 5'10", 179 lb sophomore wide receiver: This year, Maze has caught eight passes for 194 yards (24.2 ypr) and two touchdowns. He started four games as a freshman in 2008, recording 11 catches for 137 yards (12.5 ypr) -- Last season versus UK, Maze started, but did not make a catch.

Maze caught an 80-yard bomb for a touchdown last week versus Arkansas, to go along with a 34-yard touchdown reception.

Mike McCoy -- 6'3", 215 lb senior wide receiver: In 2009, McCoy has caught eight passes for 138 yards (17.2 ypr), and one touchdown. In 2008, he started nine games along side Julio Jones, and made 16 catches for 191 yards (11.9 ypr) -- He did not play against UK last season due to a hamstring injury.

Colin Peek -- 6'6", 255 lb senior tight end: This season Peek has made 8 catches for 95 yards (11.9 ypr). A Georgia Tech transfer, Peek sat out last season, but in his sophomore year for the Yellow Jackets, he caught 25 passes for 258 yards (10.1 ypr). and a touchdown.

Brad Smelley -- 6'3", 218 lb sophomore tight end: In 2009, Smelley has caught three passes for 12 yards (4.0 ypr). He came off of his redshirt last year in the seventh game of the season against Ole Miss. Over the second half of last year, he caught seven passes for 98 yards (14.0 ypr). Smelley's brother, Chris, played quarterback at South Carolina, and now plays baseball at Alabama.

Alabama Special Team's Dynamo

Javier Arenas -- 5'9", 198 lb senior kick returner/defensive back: Arenas has returned 15 punts this year for 285 yards (19.0 yards per return). He's returned five kick-offs for a total of 141 yards (28.2 ypr). In 2008, the Second Team All-SEC performer averaged 15.9 yards per punt return, and 23.6 yards per kick-off return. Also, in '08 he returned three punts for touchdowns -- 87, 80, and 73 yards. In 2007, he returned 21 punts for 323 yards (15.4 ypr), and one touchdown, as well as 27 kick-offs for 657 yards (24.3 ypr). In 2006, Arenas returned 31 punts for 286 yards (9.2) and two touchdowns, to go along with 18 kick-off returns for 313 yards (17.4). Arenas is Alabama's record-holder in the following categories: Punt Return Yardage (Career) - 1,544: Punt Return Yardage (Season) - 650 ('08): Punt Return Yardage (Game) - 153 (vs. Ole Miss last year) -- Last season versus UK, Arenas returned four punts for 52 yards.

What's been keeping UK special teams coach Steve Ortmayer up at night, Javier Arenas my friend, Javier Arenas.

Alabama Defensive Personnel

Rolando McClain -- 6'4", 258 lb junior linebacker: The First Team All-SEC (Third Team All-America by the AP), has recorded 23 tackles (15 solo), 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, and three quarterback hurries in 2009. McClain is a finalist for the Butkus Award, given to the nations top linebacker -- Last season versus UK, McClain led the Tide in tackles with 10 (four solo). He also returned a first quarter Mike Hartline fumble four-yards for a touchdown.

Mark Barron -- 6'2", 215 lb sophomore defensive back: In 2009, Barron has made 20 tackles (eight solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, one interception and four pass breakups.

Terrence Cody -- 6'5", 365 lb senior defensive lineman: "Mount Cody," as he is nicknamed, has recorded 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one pass breakup,and one quarterback hurry in 2009. The First Team All-America anchors the defense that is second in the nation (and first in the SEC) in rush defense, allowing only 47.3 yards per game -- Last season versus UK, Cody recorded two assisted tackles, and allowed UK to run for only 35 yards.

Eryk Anders -- 6'2", 227 lb senior linebacker: This year Anders has made 19 tackles (9 solo), 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and three quarterback hurries -- Last season versus UK, Anders executed two tackles.

Javier Arenas -- 5'9", 198 lb senior defensive back: In 2009, Arenas has made 18 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, and two pass breakups -- Last season versus UK, Arenas recorded six tackles (4 solo).

Brandon Deaderick -- 6'4", 287 lb senior defensive end: The former Elizabethtown High School stand-out has recorded 5 tackles in 2009. Coming off a gunshot wound suffered the week prior to Alabama's opener against Virgina Tech, Deaderick has played in all four Tide games, but he has yet to start. Saturday, Deaderick will be lining up across from his high school teammate, UK's Zipp Duncan -- Last season versus UK, Deaderick had two tackles.

Tide Tidbits

Alabama gives up only 1.7 yards per rush to their opponents ... Florida International ran for one yard on 26 carries ... The Tide receivers are averaging 14.2 yards per catch ... 'Bama has converted 45% of their third down conversion tries ... Opposing quarterbacks are completing only 48.4% of their passes (59-122) against the Tide ... 'Bama has recorded 13 sacks ... Alabama's punt return average - 18.8 yards, their opponents - 4.3 yards ... Virginia Tech scored 24 points on the Tide, but averaged only 2.1 yards per carry ... Florida International had a 96-yard kick-off return for a touchdown against the Tide ... Alabama has outscored their opponents 162-52 in their four games ... The Tide held Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett to only 12-35 passing (34.3%) for 160 yards, one touchdown and one interception ... Mallett was sacked three times.

Alabama Accolades

Alabama is ranked in the top-11 in the country in the following categories: 2nd - Rush Defense (47.3 ypg); 2nd - Total Defense (202.5 ypg); 5th - Offensive Pass Efficiency (169.0); 8th - Total Offense (490.5 ypg); 9th - Scoring Offense (40.5 ppg); 10th - Rush Offense (234.3 ypg); 10th - Tackles for Loss (8.0); 11th - Punt Return Average (18.8).

CliffsNotes Analysis ("Must" Edition)

1. UK must be mentally focused.

2. UK must not commit silly, mental mistakes, i.e. excessive penalties.

3. UK must not start playing in the second quarter. The game starts at 12:20 fellas.

4. UK must run the ball. Some how, some way.

5. UK must not allow big plays, which 'Bama has a penchant for.

6. UK must throw for more than 85 yards (Hartline's total against Florida)..

7. UK must find a way to get Randall Cobb into space (no, not the heavens, open space).

8. UK must not allow the 'Bama backs to run as with gifted with impunity (less than 175 would be nice).

9. UK must not average less than 10.0 yards per catch.

10. UK must score (twice would be nice) a special teams or defensive touchdown.

11. UK must play like Wildcats, or risk ending up a skinned cat.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Tide!

The SEC West One Month In

Year2 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:30:22 -0000

Divisional Preseason Storyline

The balance of power has shifted from the SEC East to the West. The top three teams are so close as to be interchangeable. Watch out for Arkansas, who could make a second year leap under Bobby Petrino as so many other teams have made second year leaps under good coaches.

One Month In Reality

This division is stronger than the East, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as thought. Alabama is clearly the best team of the bunch.

Preseason Storyline

How is Alabama going to deal with replacing Andre Smith and the rest of the graduating offensive linemen? It was the strength of last year's offense. Can Mark Ingram fill Glen Coffee's shoes? How about that new quarterback guy, Greg McElroy? We've heard some good practice reports, but no one knows how good he'll be until we see him on the field. At least the defense is mostly in tact.

One Month In Reality

Alabama's line has done just fine, and its four-deep at running back is terrifyingly effective. As for Greg McElroy, he's already looking better than John Parker Wilson ever did. For all the talk of Alabama just needing a game manager behind center, McElroy appears capable of being much more. The defense has resumed its role of a marauding band of pillagers, but now it will have to deal with losing Dont'a Hightower.

Preseason Storyline

We will probably get to see the real Bobby Petrino offense now that the rocket-armed pocket statue Ryan Mallett is taking over for the Dick brothers. The Razorbacks were near the top of the conference in passing last year despite the situation under center, so it should be even better now. If the defense can shore itself up some, this team could be a spoiler.

One Month In Reality

The defense may be even worse than last year, as it made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana and turned the Crimson Tide attack into a big play offense. The unit has no hope of keeping things close when the offense isn't clicking. Mallett has been good, as predicted, and his arm is dangerous from anywhere on the field. However, it's not good enough to overcome an elite defense, and it's looking like it will be a while before the Hogs become a real complete team.

Preseason Storyline

Leave it to Auburn to fire a winner for Mr. 5-19. What were they thinking? The defense will probably still be good with Gene Chizik on the staff, but the defense wasn't really the problem last year anyway. Gus Malzahn was an intriguing hire, but what can he do with the hole at quarterback? Will his spread scheme transplant be rejected like Tony Franklin's was?

One Month In Reality

It's hard to argue with much when you're 4-0 and doing it with style. The offense has surpassed 500 total yards in three of the four wins, and is right at the top of the total and scoring offense ranks with Florida. The Tigers returned to their roots as a rushing team as well, as they are currently fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that Chris Todd is sixth in the country in passing efficiency. Granted Auburn has played only ~~one~~ two teams from a Big Six conference, so the optimism is tempered a bit. However, they couldn't have put up these kinds of numbers against air last year.

Preseason Storyline

It's time for Les Miles to show something now that all of Nick Saban's players have left. Hiring John Chavis should help shore up the defense, and the offense is probably in good hands with Jordan Jefferson. Everyone who has seen a practice has raved about the skill position players, so it's looking like a bounce back year for the Tigers.

One Month In Reality

LSU is 4-0, but only just. The team is being buoyed by its 23rd ranking in scoring defense, but it is also 49th in total defense, 53rd in scoring offense, and a dismal 105th in total offense. The thing is still a work in progress, with wins over Washington, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State coming a bit too close for comfort. You can make an excuse for all of them (UW was the longest road trip in school history; Vandy does that to all conference front runners every now and then; MSU was an 11 AM game on the road and a look ahead game), but this team is out of them now. A poor performance against Georgia will likely get them beat badly.

Preseason Storyline

This is it. This is the Rebels' year. They finished last year 6-0 and beat the national champs. Most everyone important comes back. Sure it will be tough to replace Michael Oher and Peria Jerry, but with a strong rest of the D-line and the conference's second best quarterback, Ole Miss should still compete for a division championship.

One Month In Reality

Ole Miss does indeed look like the team from last year. Unfortunately, it is the one that began the season 3-4 and not the one that finished strongly. The loss of Oher is looming very large as the offense has sputtered early against Memphis and for the first three quarters against South Carolina. The defense has held up its end of the bargain so far, allowing no more than 14 points in a game, but until Jevan Snead and the offense get back on track, it will be tough to consider the Rebels a true contender to Alabama's throne.

Preseason Storyline

Hiring the offensive coordinator of the national champion, regardless of who that is, has to be considered a bit of a coup for Mississippi State. Now that Dan Mullen is in the fold though, we can't really expect much of him yet. Sylvester Croom, for all of his admirable qualities, never assembled much talent in Starkville, and conversions to spread option attacks seldom go well in the first year. A win or two in the conference would be a good year.

One Month In Reality

A 2-2 start for Mississippi State is encouraging, but it's even moreso when you consider that the Bulldogs could easily be 3-1 if not for the late game heroics of LSU's Chad Jones. MSU collected a conference win against Vanderbilt and looked good in giving LSU the scare of a lifetime. Mullen has taken Croom's offensive cesspool and turned it into the country's 25th best rushing attack. The game against Auburn didn't go so well, but otherwise things are looking up so far.

Week Four Preview: #3 Alabama vs Arkansas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:33 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer Alabama has faced this season.

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The 49-14 thumping that Alabama put on Arkansas last year in Fayetteville was easily the most lopsided game this series has seen in a decade. Last year's game, however, was also an anomaly as this series generally sees close, hard-fought contests, and none should expect another crimson landslide for a second year in a row.

There are two majors reasons for that: One, Arkansas looks to be a much better team this year than they were a year ago, and two, last year's game was much closer than the scoreboard indicated. Lopsided score notwithstanding, last year's game was actually played pretty evenly by the two teams, and the massive disparity on the scoreboard resulted from four major players all going Alabama's way. Those four plays were Glen Coffee's long touchdown run, Casey Dick's two interceptions (while driving) that were returned for touchdowns, and Terrence Cody's goal line stand to end the first half, and all of them directly resulted in Alabama touchdowns. Don't expect all of the big plays to go the Tide's way this year, and thus a much closer game this time around.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Arkansas Defense

On the surface, this seems like a lopsided match-up in the Tide's favor. The Alabama offense has been surprisingly effective to date -- 500+ yards of total offense in each of the first three games, and 127 total points -- and Greg McElroy has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The offensive line was a major question mark coming into the season, and while penalties have hurt them somewhat, they've still generally gotten the job done. Even with Julio Jones not even playing in more than half of the offensive snaps to date, nothing has really been able to slow down the Tide's offense. On the other hand, Arkansas' defense has been nothing short of abysmal to date. It was a very bad unit a year ago, and unfortunately for the Hog faithful it's one that has shown little or no improvement since.

So is it just a given that the Alabama offense is going to rack up points left and right against Arkansas? Perhaps, but let's not be so fast.

An objective look at Arkansas' defense yields a group that is very light on elite top-end talent and quality depth throughout the roster, but even so this unit may not be as hapless as many would make it seem. Clearly the Hogs had a disastrous performance last week against Georgia, but it is worth noting that performance came almost entirely without the presence of two of Arkansas' best defenders: middle linebacker Jerry Franklin and cornerback Rudell Crim. Franklin is the leader of the linebacker corps and he was ejected in the second quarter, and Crim is the team's best cornerback, but he went out with leg cramps early. And as if missing two of their best players wasn't a big enough issue in its own right, their replacements -- Terrell Williams and Greg Gatson -- were effectively outright disasters. Franklin will be back this week, however, and you can rest assured that the Arkansas medical staff will have Crim properly hydrated this time around, so their returns alone will go a long way towards improving this Arkansas defense.

The big concern for Alabama, most likely, comes in the running game. The offensive line is still a bit of an unknown commodity, and for all of the criticisms of the Arkansas defense, we really haven't been challenged in the way that this Hog front seven will challenge us. Given our proclivity towards using two-tight end sets, we practically lost five starters at the point of attack from a year ago (Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Travis McCall, and Nick Walker), and the replacements for those five starters simply don't have the size that their predecessors did. Combined we are about 100 pounds lighter at the point of attack than we were last year -- which is to say nothing of the fact that the combination of Preston Dial and Brad Smelley isn't near the blocker that Travis McCall was, size differential notwithstanding -- and that alone probably means that we cannot dominate teams in the trenches like we did a year ago.

And that is where Arkansas really challenges us. For all of the criticisms of their defense, this is a big, strong unit in the front seven, and that is something we really haven't seen this year. Virginia Tech openly traded size for speed, and both Florida International and North Texas were clearly outmatched physically. Arkansas, however, is a very different animal altogether. They average nearly 280 pounds in the front four, the linebacker corps averages around 235 pounds, and with Malcom Sheppard manning the defensive tackle position, they will be able to match our physical style of play. In all likelihood, if the Arkansas defense is to slow down the Alabama offense, this is likely how they will have to do it.

Unfortunately, however, the rest of the match-ups for the Hogs simply do not look good.

Looking at the rest of the defensive backfield, even with a healthy Rudell Crim, the secondary is still one of the worst in the conference. Starting opposite Crim is Ramon Broadway, but Broadway has made news for three things this year, none of which are good for the Hogs: Getting arrested for not showing up to traffic court, running his mouth before the Georgia game, and ultimately getting lit up by A.J. Green. He's a below average corner in coverage, and the same thing goes for the rest of the rotation at cornerback. Highly-touted true freshman Darius Winston -- a consensus five-star prospect -- has not been able to make any impact whatsoever. Likewise, the safety play from Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris has impressed no one to date.

Largely the same thing goes for the linebacker corps as well. Jerry Franklin is a fine player at middle linebacker, but while the starters surrounding him, Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton, have a good bit of size, neither of the two look to be particularly good players right now. The aforementioned Terrell Williams struggled greatly last weekend trying to fill in for Franklin, and while Jerico Nelson is a good player against the pass, at barely 200 pounds he struggles to get on the field on running downs, thus limiting his effectiveness.

The best match-up of all may very well come against the Arkansas defensive line in the passing game, which has struggled to rush the passer. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at defensive end, but neither are particularly adept pass rushers, and while Sheppard is more active than your typical interior player, there's only so much you can legitimately expect when you need your interior defensive linemen to generate the bulk of your pass rush. Despite Georgia being without its starting left tackle last week, Arkansas still couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever on Joe Cox, ultimately racking up only one sack and one hurry on approximately 30 passing attempts. Alabama may still have some issues protecting off the edge, but Greg McElroy ought to find himself with plenty of time to throw the football.

All in all, the Arkansas defense may be a bit better than it has been given credit for, and at any rate Alabama is still going to have to come out and execute successfully over the course of 60-70 plays to get the job done. Nevertheless, you still have to think that the Tide will put up more than their fair share of points this weekend. Arkansas may make running the football tough, but Arkansas' porous defensive backfield mixed with a lack of a consistent pass rush is likely a lethal combination in and of itself if Greg McElroy continues to play like he has so far this year.

Alabama Defense v. Arkansas Offense

While most expect the Alabama offense to have a big day against the struggling Arkansas defense, it's clear to everyone that it will be strength on strength when the Arkansas offense comes on the field. Both the Alabama defense and the Arkansas offense have the ability to be among the nationally elite with regard to their respective units, and making matters even more intriguing both units are led by two of the most advanced football minds in all of college football.

The Arkansas offense is a scary group, no two ways about it. Ryan Mallett has the arm strength of JaMarcus Russell, and he is easily the best pure pocket passer that Alabama has faced in years. The backfield is loaded with talented tailbacks that bring experience along with their unique mixes and matches of different physical builds. Tight end D.J. Williams is clearly the best in the conference, and back-up Ben Cleveland is a very valuable threat as a possession receiver. The wide receiver corps, too, is a good one from top to bottom. They don't have a true superstar ala Julio Jones, but they do have five or six high quality wide receivers who have good athleticism and who run good routes -- Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams are good enough to begin with, and Lucas Miller is returning this week from injury. That alone makes the Hogs very difficult to defend on the perimeter, even without saying anything with regard to Mallett. Bottom line, at the very least, this is the third-best offense in the conference, and it could easily be the best.

The only real weakness of the Arkansas offense comes up front at the point of attack, where the Hogs offensive line is seemingly still a relic of the Houston Nutt era. All five starters committed to Nutt, and not surprisingly they are generally the big, physical mashers that Nutt loved so much in his run-heavy offense. The "smallest" player on the line comes in at around 6'5 and 305 pounds, and truthfully that fact is probably doing the Hogs few favors. This line is, on the whole, a fish out of water. They are more physically built to pave the way for a run-heavy offense, but with the coaching turnover they are now being asked to pass protect against highly athletic pass rushers in a pass-happy offense. On a fundamental level it's effectively a recipe for disaster, and not surprisingly it's a team that has struggled to a degree to protect the passer. Starting right tackle DeMarcus Love probably needs to be playing inside at guard, and starting left tackle Ray Dominguez was absolutely atrocious against Georgia with four penalties and one sack allowed. The left tackle of the future is Anthony Oden, the younger brother of basketball star Greg Oden. He'll be a star one day, and the Arkansas coaches have indicated he may play some this week against Alabama, but he's a true freshman and given Nick Saban's love for giving multiple fronts that confuse offensive linemen, I'm not sure exactly how eager the Arkansas coaching staff is to put him in front of 93,000 fans. Nevertheless, if Dominguez' struggles continue, the Hogs' hand may be forced.

And this is the weakness that the Alabama defense must successfully attack to limit the Arkansas offense. The performance of our defensive backfield has been solid but not spectacular to date -- the overall statistics look good, but safety play has been shaky and highly inconsistent, Kareem Jackson has been hit or miss, and Marquis Johnson had a key penalty against Virginia Tech -- but the simple truth of the matter is that if Ryan Mallett consistently has the time to throw, it's going to be a very long day for the Tide. The Arkansas wide receiver corps is too good and Ryan Mallett has too much arm strength and accuracy to expect to be able to consistently stop the Arkanas offense if we cannot get pressure on Mallett.

Fortunately for the Tide, however, you have to like how we match against the Arkansas offensive line. Marcel Dareus is having a breakout year, Lorenzo Washington is playing better than ever, and we've gotten great pressure from the linebacker corps with Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Eryk Anders. Moreover, on obvious passing downs, we have been moving the defensive ends inside in a four man front, and then putting Hightower and Anders at end. The results have been very good, to put it mildly, and we have consistently harassed passers all year long. Given the struggles Arkansas has had at the tackle positions, all signs point towards the Tide having some success getting to Mallett.

Even with that said, though, expect the Arkansas offense to have a reasonable amount of success against the Tide regardless. The running game has the potential to be a very good one -- you mix a bunch of big, strong offensive linemen with a group of highly talented tailbacks, and that is usually what you get -- and unless the Arkansas coaching staff is blowing smoke, they plan to use the rushing attack more prominently this weekend. It could have some success, and realistically no matter how well you can pressure Mallett, all of the outstanding components of the Arkansas passing game will guarantee that the Hogs hit more than a few plays in the passing game. These guys are going to score points, period.

Putting It All Together

All in all, I don't think there is much questioning the notion that Alabama is the better team here. We have more top-end talent, more quality depth, and probably a tad bit more experience as well. As long as Greg McElroy continues to play like he has to date, you have to imagine that Alabama will score more than their fair share of points tomorrow, and we should come away with the victory. Nevertheless, this game is far from a given, and it is likely to be a closely fought contest that goes into the fourth quarter. Arkansas is at worst a solid SEC team, and the difference between the two teams is far from gaping.

While it seems like we should be able to take full advantage of the Arkansas defense, truth be told we are probably going to have to do just that in order to win this game. Bamagrad has talked about these spread passing teams before, and I think he makes a good point: You can have a good defense and play well, but at the end of the day they are still good enough offensively to put up 24-28 points on the board. That could very well happen to us on Saturday, and if our special teams breakdowns continue, we could very easily be needing to score 31-35+ points in order to be able to get the victory. Arkansas is an improved team over last year, and they pulled off some pretty big upsets even then -- another victory over LSU, and came within a hair of knocking off Ole Miss as well. Rest assured, the Hogs will collect some more scalps this year, and it won't be a shock if they head back to Fayetteville with a crimson scalp in their possession.

Hope for the best.

Around the SEC West - Week 1

Juco All-American — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:30:26 -0000

by John Froschauer - AP

Overrated... clap clap clap clap clap. /memphisfan

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Whiskey Wednesday and I have decided to start a new segment with a totally original and unique name called "Around the SEC." In this segment, as you may have guessed, we will be discussing one player at each other SEC team who played excellent football the previous weekend and helped his team.

We figured this would be a great way to keep you faithful Cup fans informed as to the league's goings on, rising stars, and intriguing storylines. It will also be a great way for us to keep tabs on our opponents outside of their respective hate weeks.

Whiskey may or may not be doing an SEC East post today. If he doesn't, next time I see him, I will punch him in the face.

SEC West teams follow after the jump.

ALABAMA

I never thought that Mark Ingram could step in so well to Glen Coffee's shoes. If his game against the stingy defense of Virginia Tech is any indicator, Ingram will be a force in the SEC this year. Marky Mark racked up 195 yards of total offense and two touchdowns. Ingram was Alabama's offense. Sure, Greg McElroy was able to pass it well when needed, but Saban is relying on Ingram, and rightfully so.

ARKANSAS

Some of you may not be aware that Arkansas ran a two-headed monster at QB in their first game. It wasn't just Ryan Mallet for the first half and Tyler Wilson for the second. Wilson actually threw a touchdown before Mallet. Both were very efficient, and Arkansas has a lot to be excited about at quarterback. Broderick Green was not impressive, carrying the ball nine times for 21 yards and once for ten. Still, the razorbacks were obviously spreading the ball around since they realized that the opposition had no chance whatsoever.

AUBURN

So apparently Kodi Burns is Gus Malzahn's next wildcat specialist. I haven't seen the game or even clips from it, but judging by the box score, where Burns threw the ball once and had eight rushes, I'm guessing that's the case. Burns' numbers aren't very impressive, especially against a team like Louisiana Tech. I assume that Burns is just a stop-gap until Chizik and Co. are able to bring in an athlete capable of making explosive plays. In other news, true freshman and former Hargrave sensation Onterio McCaleb was nuts in the game, ruishing for 148 yards. I want to see what the Rebels could do if they gave Bolden the ball 22 times.

LSU

Drake Nevis had a standout game for the Tigers, clogging the line, recording a ten yard sack, and batting down a pass. The one-time Ole Miss commitment has been playing well for the Tigers since his arrival, and he looks to anchor a solid LSU defensive line. On the other hand, Washington proved that the same schemes that helped five SEC teams beat the Tigers last year are still useful this year. By stacking the box, they held Charles Scott to 52 yards and dared LSU to beat them through the air. Jefferson didn't surpass the 200 yards mark even with two plays from Terrence Tolliver in which Tolliver caugh the ball 5 yards past the LOS and went 40+ yards for the score.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mississippi State beat Jackson State, largely with the help of Chris Relf, who really showed out in the game. The quarterback carried the ball twelve times for 82 yards and was a competent paser, completing 7/10 of his passes for seventy five yards and three touchdowns. It appears that Relf is the redzone weapon at quarterback, but I think that Tyson Lee will still be called upon in several situations.

Alabama's Run Game in 2008 and 2009

Year2 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 14:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

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As a counterpoint to Wednesday's analysis of Florida's running game in 2008 and 2009, I decided to apply the same thing to Alabama's running game. Florida's reputation is that of a big play team, which the numbers showed, but Alabama was billed more as a power-oriented, grind it out kind of team. Just how true is that for the Tide?

Well, Alabama's two primary backs were the now-departed Glen Coffee and current sophomore Mark Ingram. The third option was the injury plagued Roy Upchurch, who is now a senior and figures to be an important part of the running game when healthy. Those three got by far the lion's share of meaningful carries, so I kept the analysis to just them. When you see "team," that refers to the three of them combined and nothing else. Also, the game against Western Kentucky was ignored since WKU was not yet a full I-A member last season.

Here's the quick reference chart for 'Bama in 2008:

Category	Team	Coffee	Ingram	Upchurch
Carries	406	225	133	48
YPC	5.60	5.76	5.01	6.46
Median	4	4	3	4
Pct. are Gains	88.4%	89.3%	86.5%	89.6%
Gains 30+ yds	9	5	3	1
Pct. of total	2.22%	2.22%	2.26%	2.08%
YPC, no 30+ gains	4.63	4.68	4.31	5.28

Not surprisingly, Coffee's numbers closely mirror those of the "team" in this table. He had more than half of the total carries that I analyzed, so it would make sense that his are the most powerful influence on the team totals. What sticks out to me was the fact that a shade under 90% of his carries were for positive yardage. It's a testament to his hard running and the offensive line that he ran behind last season. The highest such percentage for Florida was Percy Harvin with 87.9% of carries being gains, and no other primary rusher cracked 85%.

Ingram was a step below Coffee though. His median carry is lower than that of Coffee (and Upchurch, for that matter), his gain percentage was lowest, and his YPC was lower with or without big plays factored in. Ingram was no slouch of course, and he was just a freshman. What should be encouraging to Tide fans is that he was not too terribly far from Coffee in most everything, so with a natural improvement that comes from age and experience, Ingram should be up to Coffee's production level soon (assuming the offensive line can open him some good holes).

Upchurch is the more interesting guy to me as the one doing this analysis because his run total was far below the other two. That means he has the potential to deviate furthest from the "team" total, and he did not disappoint. Upchurch's single rush for more than 30 yards (a 62 yard run against Arkansas) bumped his YPC upward nearly a yard and a quarter. Even with that outlier taken out, he still had a much higher YPC that was 0.03 away from being a full yard more than Ingram's. Upchurch's gain percentage was also ever so slightly above Coffee's mark.

His rush distribution versus the team distribution also shows some key differences:

Click for larger.

While Coffee's and Ingram's distributions follow the blue team line almost exactly, Upchurch's doesn't in some key ways. He has a much higher percentage of runs in the 3-4 yard range than were in the 0-2 yard range for the other two, and he also had a higher percentage of carries in the 6-15 yard range as well. That's why Upchurch's average came out so much higher -- it wasn't a case of breaking long runs consistently, but rather that he went for intermediate gains more often. Some part of that, I would image, has to do with him getting a disproportionately higher number of garbage time carries.

One last thing before moving on. I find the long gain percentage interesting because of something I saw in the Advanced NFL Stats post that inspired me to do all of this. The percentages for Coffee and Ingram were right at about 2.2%, and Upchurch wasn't that far below. That is the percentage of rushes for big gains that Adrian Peterson has in the pros, and it was much higher than that of the entire NFL (0.91%), Jamal Lewis (0.88%), and Brian Westbrook (0.93%). Though Alabama was considered stodgy and old fashioned in its running style last year, the team broke off big plays at the same rate as an NFL sensation. Food for thought when comparing the college and pro game.

Finally, here's the table on effectiveness by down. I looked both at YPC on each down (capped at 30 to avoid too much skewing) and the percentage of the time that the player picked up a first down. If a player had fewer than five carries on a particular down, that was excluded.

Player	Down	YPC	Pct. 1st Dn.
Coffee	1	4.79	12.1%
Coffee	2	6.41	41.3%
Coffee	3	4.04	69.6%
Ingram	1	4.84	18.6%
Ingram	2	5.10	34.7%
Ingram	3	4.36	50.0%
Upchurch	1	6.90	19.0%
Upchurch	2	5.78	44.4%
Upchurch	3	3.22	33.3%

This is really where the difference between the rushing style of Florida and Alabama comes out. None of Alabama's players picked up first downs on first down at a rate of above 20%, while all four main Gators, including the hulking Tim Tebow, surpassed that threshold (Chris Rainey even did it at a 30% rate). All three Bama backs have their best YPC on second down, while only Jeff Demps of Florida had second as his best down.

Coffee's third down percentage is not quite up to Tebow's (75%), but it's still very good. Ingram's coin flip of a percentage is a little disconcerting, especially since only three of his fourteen attempts were from longer than two yards (and he picked up one of them). The third down percentage is a bit misleading for Upchurch though. Of the six third downs he failed to convert, half were with eight or more yards to go. His YPC on that down is not misleading though since, aside from one 12 yard run, he didn't gain more than four yards on a third down run.

The numbers say what I think everyone would expect them to say. Florida's running game was more explosive than Alabama's was in 2008, but the Tide attack was more consistent on a down-to-down basis. In 2009 we can expect to see plenty of Ingram and Upchurch (when healthy), but the highly touted freshmen Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy will probably play a role in the proceedings too. Needless to say, the pace at which 'Bama can rebuild its offensive line will go a long way in determining how well its run game will do in 2009.

For more on Alabama's running game, see the Roll Bama Roll posts on running back success rate.

Discussing Big 12 QBs With And The Valley Shook

Beergut — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:56:35 -0000

SB Nation's LSU blog And The Valley Shook recently did a story looking at Big 12 QBs from last season. Basically, Richard Pittman and some other ATVS writers created a new Quarterback Productivity Index, an index which they believe works better than the commonly used passer rating statistic. Using the ATVSQBPI, they ranked the SEC quarterbacks from last season, then they went ahead and ranked the Big 12 quarterbacks from last season. As might be expected, some of the rankings for the Big 12 quarterbacks were off the charts. If you could say that any QBPI of 7 or above was damn good, well, the Big 12 had nine QBs with the QBPI of above 7, or nine damn good quarterbacks. By comparison, the SEC only had three. (Jerrod Johnson was a lowly 6.50, which sounds terrible until you consider the fact that his stats were hurt by the number of sacks he took last season (30), which count against him in rushing yards.) The discussion in the comments then moved on to ask why there was such a discrepancy in numbers between the two conferences, and if the discrepancy was possibly because of offensive schemes.

From Displaced Tiger:

QB productivity difference is shocking.

Could the big difference in productivity between SEC and Big XII qbs be due to differences in the offensive schemes employed by the schools in each conference? (If such a scheme difference actually exists?)

Richard Pittman replies:

If the difference is one of offensive scheme..

then the SEC should be emulating it. You can’t argue with production. I think it’s more a difference of talent, both at QB and on the defensive side of the ball.

I then jump in:

I think it is mainly a scheme issue

Most Big 12 teams employ some type of spread offense (spare me your "the spread won’t work in the SEC" argument, Florida has disproved that myth), so it means defenses are seeing mostly 10 personnel all game long. SEC teams usually employ more of a pro-set on offense, so you see more 21 personnel in games. Having to worry about covering and stopping 3 athletes on a play like you do in the SEC is a hell of a lot easier than worrying about covering 5 athletes on a play, like we do in the Big 12.

The Big 12 also had a lot of experienced QBs last season: Bradford was a second-year starter, McCoy was in his third year starting, Harrell third year, Robinson second year, etc. I think the only QBs in their first year starting were Robert Griffin, Jerrod Johnson, and Austen Arnaud. Coincidently, they are among the bottom of your rankings.

Cody ~~Johnson~~ Hawkins was a second-year starter who ended up splitting time with another QB, so that effected his stats.

Richard replies to me:

I don't think it's purely a question of offensive scheme..

if it was, every SEC team should adopt a Big 12 like offensive scheme. Those Big 12 offenses were much more productive. The SEC teams aren’t going to say, "We know the Big 12 spreads got better production, but we’re going with a pro style because… because we want to." They’re rational actors and will do what is best for their teams. It’s possible those teams sacrificed effective running for effective passing, while the SEC coaches went for more of a balance. I haven’t looked at those statistics, but I don’t seem to recall the SEC’s rushing attacks being all that much better than the Big 12’s (outside of Texas, which did not have any productive running backs). I think the hyper-inflated Big 12 numbers are more a matter of talent than of of scheme, and I mean talent both at quarterback and on defense.

And I do some research and make a lengthly reply back:

I'm not so sure Big 12 offenses sacrificed rushing for passing

because the best rushing team in the conference (Oklahoma State) is also it’s most balanced offense, but they are also a spread team. Some teams ran the ball better than others, but that was also mainly due to skill on their offensive line. Texas A&M, for instance, had a putrid offensive line last season, and it reflected in both our passing and rushing stats, as we couldn’t run block well, and we gave up a ton of sacks. Baylor and texas were both led in rushing by their QBs, so their rushing stats are a little misleading. Baylor has a freak of nature at QB named Robert Griffin (if you haven’t heard of him, he makes Russell Shepard look slow), and he single-handedly kept Baylor in games with his feet and his arm. texas had a good passing game, so defenses concerned with coverage left all sorts of lanes open for Colt McCoy to run in on broken plays.

I would also argue that the Big 12 benefitted from having the best WRs in the nation playing in our conference. Your defensive stats will look bad when you’re trying to stop Michael Crabtree or Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin every weekend. We also had the pleasure of trying to shut down the best TE in the nation in Jermaine Gresham, and arguably the second best TE in the nation in Chase Coffman (who was really just a big inside receiver in Missouri’s spread offense).

I would say the best WR in the SEC last season was Percy Harvin, and he spent half his time running the ball; second best was probably Julio Jones or Brandon Lafell. Jones plays in a ground-bound offense, while Lafell plays in a balanced attack. Neither of those two are utilized as often as good receivers are in the Big 12.

Take a look at the Big 12 individual stats and the SEC individual stats, and compare receptions and yards of the top receivers in both conferences. There isn’t a single 1000 yard receiver in the SEC; 9 of the top 12 receivers in the Big 12 gained over 1000 yds. texas and Kansas both had TWO receivers on their respective teams surpass 1000 yds.

Also, consider the number of receptions per player; the most receptions for an SEC receiver was 63 by Lafell, the least among the receptions leaders for the Big 12 was 67 for Brandon Banks of KSU. The Big 12 had six WRs with 90 or more catches in 2008, with one (Jeremy Maclin) surpassing 100 receptions. Eight of the top twelve receivers in the Big 12, either judging by receptions per game or yds per game, had 80 or more receptions. That means over two-thirds of the conferences leading receivers were constant targets in their respective offenses. By contrast, only two of the top ten receivers in the SEC (judging by receptions per game) have over 60 receptions, and seven of the top ten have over 50 receptions. I think it is safe to say that SEC offenses were not as committed to passing the ball as Big 12 offenses were.

If you look at rushing statistics, the SEC boasts five RBs in their top 10 rushers who carried the ball 190 or more times; the Big 12 only has two. The top 3 rushers in the SEC carried the ball 250, 207, and 233 times, respectively; the top 3 rushers in the Big 12 carried the ball 241, 217, and 179 times, respectively. I think it is safe ot say that the SEC was a lot more committed to a systematic approach of running the ball than the Big 12 was.

Also, you will notice that in the SEC individual rushers list, you have only one school with two players in the top ten rushers: Alabama with Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram. In the Big 12, you have three pairs of teammates listed among the top twelve rushers, with Chris Brown and Demarco Murray representing OU, Jay Finley and Robert Griffin representing Baylor, and Baron Batch and Shannon Woods representing Texas Tech. I think this speaks to systemic differences in the offenses, where Big 12 schools are featuring rotating two backs in the backfield in 10 personnel, and splitting up the carries, to spread out the production, while the SEC seems to be putting the ball in the hands of one player, putting him behind a fullback, and hammering him at the line play after play.

There is also the fact that I think Big 12 offenses tend to operate from the shotgun, with a QB taking a direct snap every play, more than they do under center, taking an indirect snap. From what I’ve seen of most SEC offenses, the majority of the teams put their QB under center, and make him take an indirect snap. Why is this important? Because the shotgun gives the QB more time in the pocket, and makes it more difficult for the pass rush to get to him before he gets off the pass, while a QB dropping back from under center is moving back at the same time the pass rush is coming upfield, giving him less time to get a pass off.

Consider that the worst passing offense in the Big 12 was Baylor, who averaged a paltry 180.7 yds per game; that would have ranked as the seventh best passing attack in the SEC, behind LSU. The best passing offense in the SEC (Georgia) averaged 277 yds per game through the air; that would have been seventh best in the Big 12. I think any objective fan would agree that an offense that averages less than 200 yds passing per game is a poor passing offense; six SEC teams (or half the conference) average less than 200 yds passing per game. There are two offenses in the Big 12 that average less than 200 yds per game, and one of them (Baylor) had a dual threat QB who was equally as effective on his feet as he was with his arm, and also happened to be a true freshman. The other school (Colorado) played musical chairs at QB all season long, and was just poor overall on offense.

As to the question of why SEC offenses won’t switch to a spread scheme, I think part of it is because some of them truly believe the myth that the spread won’t work in the SEC, because the defenses are too fast. Florida has proven that myth to be false, though, and with Arkansas and Mississippi State now installing the spread offense, I think you’ll see that changing. I also think that there is a cultural influence at work here; I think SEC fans in general love power football, they love a tough running game against a tough defense, and the coaches are just giving them what they want.

I still contend that the Big 12 has superior QBs to the SEC, and that is what contributed to our obscene offensive numbers as a conference last year, and also explains why we have a very high average QBPI. With eight of the QBs on that list returning this year, we'll see if those obscene numbers continue. If my theory about elite WRs contributing to the numbers is correct, we should see a slight fall in the passing numbers this year, and a rise in the defensive rankings for Big 12 defenses.

SEC 2009 // Alabama Aims for Something Special

Year2 — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:00:09 -0000

ELEVENTH IN A SERIES :: The 2008 Alabama Review

There were a few people who saw upside surprise in Alabama's 2008 season before it started. Nick Saban, along with many of the game's other top coaches right now, had a history of having a pop in his second year at a school. Plus, the team's composition appeared to be perfect for how Saban likes to have his teams, even if the players involved had yet to accomplish a whole lot.

I would guess it's unlikely though that even the most optimistic Bama fans would have predicted a 12-0 regular season, except for the steadfast loons who believe the Tide will go undefeated every year. It had all the makings of a classic Alabama team: a tough, run first offense with an adequate quarterback and a nasty defense. It was enough to have some looking back to 1992.

It appeared as though things were all going according to ~~plan~~ the Process, that is until a dramatic fourth quarter collapse against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators outscored the Tide 14-0 and out gained it 140 yards to 1. Then in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama sleepwalked its way into a 21-0 hole in the first quarter against Utah. Two quarters, two opponents, five touchdowns allowed. Needless to say, that's not how anyone wants to end a season.

So Saban has two years at Alamaba under his belt now, and in the second he won 12 games. Given the program's recent history, that's great. In the entire history of the Bama football though, how much is it really worth? Every head coach who has roamed the sidelines in Tuscaloosa since Bear Bryant has won 10 or more games. They all hit that mark: the NFL import, the deserter, the champion, the idiot, the Hedley Lamarr clone, the famous son, and now, the Process. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that the vast majority of Alabama fans consider last season to be anything but a resounding success. It just means long term, Saban will need to do more.

Head coaches at Alabama are ultimately judged on championships, and with what looks like an even nastier defense than last year's, Saban will be in position to contend for another. Teams that have to replace household names are always scrutinized more closely, and at least within the SEC, everyone knew the names of the now-departed John Parker Wilson, Glen Coffee, and Andre Smith. That has caused many people to doubt Bama's chances based on a perceived offensive deficiency, but this team was never going to lean on that offense for salvation anyway.

The question I have is whether Alabama's near-inevitable swoon year will be this year or next. The majority of teams that have a new coach who comes in and immediately experiences success see a relative down year in either the third or fourth season. It's a natural gap that forms between the previous coaches' best players and the new coaches' good recruiting classes. Urban Meyer won a national title in his second year at Florida but won just nine games the next. Jim Tressel won a national title in his second year at Ohio State and eleven games in his third, but OSU won just eight games in his fourth. Les Miles won a national title in his third at LSU but won only eight games in his fourth too. Saban himself at LSU won a conference title his second year but won only eight games the next.

I would be inclined to pick this year as the down year if it wasn't for how good the defense should be. In fact, if that defensive strength might help Alabama avoid the swoon year entirely as second-year wonders Bob Stoops and Pete Carroll did. A lot hinges on new quarterback Greg McElroy not making mistakes (hint: when in doubt, throw it to Julio) and someone from the stable of running backs emerging whether a vet, like Mark Ingram, or a newcomer, like Trent Richardson. If that can happen and the line can gel, then the 2009 Crimson Tide could be roughly indistinguishable from the 2008 rendition.

I am a bit torn on this team though. I could see it bulldozing its way to another 12-0 regular season with lots of defense, running, grit, and angry pointing by the head coach. I could also just as easily see some of last year's swing games swinging the other way en route to a nine win season or so.

As the head man himself would say, the process is more important than the results. Regardless of whether Alabama gets hit with the swoon year or not, it's safe to say a winning process has been implemented for the long term for the first time in Tuscaloosa since the Gene Stallings era. Now, it's time for something special. It's not just that no coach has ever won a national title at two different schools.

It's just that it takes one to stand out from the crowd at Alabama.

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