SB Nation - Antoine Caldwell

A Closer Look at the Alabama Running Game

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

Alabama running back Mark Ingram (22) looks for running room against Arkansas.

In the preview for the Arkansas game, I expressed my concerns that we may have some trouble running the football against the Hogs. My reasoning was that we were a good bit smaller at the point of attack than we were a year ago, and that we had not yet been tested by a big, physical defensive front seven. And unfortunately, as Nico pointed out yesterday, my fears were confirmed. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson combined for 26 carries on the day, and only nine of them were successes. Aside from Richardson's epic touchdown run -- which in all fairness should have been a three-yard loss -- the Hogs completely shut down the Alabama rushing attack.

So, with that poor performance in mind, I want to look a bit closer at our running game. First and foremost, I want to specifically look at our personnel at the point of attack and see how they have changed in terms of size, and then I want to see if the lack of success in the running game was really because the Hogs were committing so many defenders in order to stop the run. From there, we'll try to make some sense of it all.

First and foremost, in terms of personnel, I have compared the numbers and we are indeed a good bit smaller than we were last year at the point of attack. When we ran the ball in 2008, we generally did so out of two tight end sets, so the seven players we generally had at the point of attack were Travis McCall, Andre Smith, Mike Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Drew Davis, and Nick Walker. Of course, though, of those seven players, only Mike Johnson and Drew Davis returned for the 2009 season, and the replacements for the five outgoing players are almost all smaller than their predecessors. Only Colin Peek is bigger than the player he replaced (Nick Walker), and he is only seven pounds heavier.

On the whole, if you look at the official weights listed on the 2008 and 2009 rosters, the seven players used at the point of attack this year in the running game is a full 59 pounds lighter than it was a year ago. And, frankly, there is reason to think that the current group is even smaller than that. It goes without saying that, of course, the official rosters can be misleading in terms of accurate height and weight measurements, and even if you assume that Andre Smith legitimately did play last year at 330 pounds and that Marlon Davis was only at 300 pounds -- neither of which many objective observers believe -- nevertheless Travis McCall and Antoine Caldwell, combined, weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 18 pounds over their listed weight, so if you factor that into consideration you are suddenly almost 80 pounds lighter at the point of attack than you were a year ago. At the very least, we are a good 60 pounds lighter this year at the point of attack, in all honesty we are probably more look 100 pounds lighter up front.

Watching the game film, it's hard to come a conclusion other than that our newly found lightness is hurting us in the running game. Simply put, we just don't have the ability to manhandle opponents at the point of attack like we did a year ago. We really aren't getting smacked around up front and allowing defenders to shoot into the backfield -- which is one reason why Ingram and Richardson's combined 26 carries, only two went for a loss -- but again we are not blowing opponents off the ball either. We are no longer just driving defensive linemen backwards, with linemen shooting out to the second level to pick off linebackers and safeties. Now we are, on a much more regular basis, fighting defensive fronts to a draw where no defender really shoots through, but where, by the same token, no real holes are created for our backs. There is more to that than just pure size, but in all fairness that does seem to be playing a pretty large role in it all.

So, what about the Arkansas defense?

I've noticed that much of the Internet chatter from 'Bama fans has been that we struggled to run the football against Arkansas because the Hogs were continuously stacking the box. But, of course, that's generally the standard excuse used when someone struggles to run the football, so I want to look closer to see if there is any validity to those claims. To that end, Sunday night I broke down the game footage and charted exactly how many defenders the Arkansas defense had in the box in each run by Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Those two, again, combined for 26 carries, and I charted 24 carries (two of Richardson's carries were, inexplicably, not included in the game video at the SEC Digital Network).

And what did I find?

Well, it's a tad bit complicated, actually. Arkansas did, in fact, stuff the box on several different occasions, and they weren't particularly shy about using eight (or more) defenders in the box in order to stop the run when they felt necessary. For example, watch the following two carries by Mark Ingram:

Now, with that said, however, to say that Arkansas consistently stopped the Alabama running by putting eight or more defenders in the box isn't entirely correct. In all actuality, Arkansas only had eight or more defenders in the box a grand total of eight times (i.e. only on one-third of all runs), and one of those carries is a bit misleading because it is the Mark Ingram touchdown run against the Hogs goal line defense. So, on the surface anyway, the notion that Arkansas stopped the Alabama rushing attack by consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders really isn't on point because on two-thirds of the carries Arkansas actually had seven or fewer defenders in the box.

But again, though, it's not necessarily so simple. The "base" defense for Arkansas while trying to stop the run was to have seven defenders in the box, but if you look closely at the game film, you can see that the safeties (and at times the corners) were clearly looking to play the run. They may have not been lined up close enough to be considered "in the box," but they were nevertheless clearly playing the run and were looking to crash the line and pounce on any running play from the snap of the football. For example, look closely at the Arkansas cornerback in the following clip of Ingram's run, and the Arkansas safety in the following clip of Trent Richardson's long touchdown run.

So, in other words, even though Arkansas defense may not have been consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders in an attempt to stop the Alabama running game, they were nevertheless expending a huge amount of resources -- via the usage of at least seven defenders in the box, plus safeties and corners constantly looking in the backfield to play the run.

And, interestingly enough, on the 24 rushing attempts I charted, only three times did the Hogs have fewer than seven defenders in the box, and on all three of those runs, they had exactly six defenders in the box. Furthermore, even more interesting, when Arkansas did only put six defenders in the box, the Alabama running game was highly successful. Those three attempts resulted in approximately 25 yards on the ground. The three following videos are the three rushes that came with only six defenders in the box:

I did find those three runs very interesting, and perhaps very insightful. Obviously those three runs are a very small sample size and thus not very telling in their own right, but there mere fact that the Arkansas coaching staff chose to have only six defenders in the box a grand total of three times over the course of an entire game ought to tell you just how dangerous they feel the Alabama running game can be if you do not have strength in numbers. And, frankly, it doesn't take the second coming of Bear Bryant to figure out why... with backs as big, strong, physical, and athletic as Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, if you give them match-ups against six man fronts they are likely to run over, through, and around those defenses. Combined that not so groundbreaking insight with the high amount of success that we had in very limited opportunities against a defense with only six men in the box, and you can pretty safely conclude that you will consistently need seven or more defenders in the box to slow down our running game.

So, enough talk, exactly what are we to make of all this?

From the outset, I do think we are clearly weaker at the point of attack than we were a year ago. We cannot manhandle defensive fronts in the same way that we could a year ago, and we do struggle to run the football against overloaded fronts. On the other hand, though, we do have two great tailbacks, and even if the offensive line is no longer dominating, it's not an outright liability either. Combined, it means that we can still be a very potent threat in the running game if the opposing defense is not committing a lot of resources to stopping the run. We cannot run the ball almost at will regardless of what you do, like we could for much of last year, but we still require you to sacrifice a lot to stop our running game.

And, interestingly enough, even though we haven't had as much success running the football this year, this has nevertheless opened up things greatly in the passing game. With seven or more defenders consistently trying to stop the run, that means you consistently have four or fewer defenders playing the pass, and that combined with the reality that Julio Jones almost constantly draws double teams means that you can almost always get single coverage in space on one or more Alabama receiver every time we drop back to throw the football. Greg McElroy has been nothing short of incredible this year, and he hasn't posted his mind-boggling stat line by throwing against defenses really keying to stop the pass, that much is sure.

All in all, while the running game struggled greatly against Arkansas, the offense nevertheless continued to do extremely well as a whole, racking up over 400 yards of total offense and 35 points. Clearly, given how things have played out to date, there is a concern if a team gives us real trouble in limiting our passing game (most likely with an effective pass rush from the front four), but a team that has to devote an extraordinary amount of resources to limiting McElroy and company will most likely get gutted by Ingram and Richardson. Despite our struggles running the football against Arkansas, it is clear that any defense that spends much of its time in nickel and dime situations is going to heavy, painful doses of #22 and #3. From the looks of things to date, it seems that if you truly want to stop our running game, you're going to have to devote a large amount of resources to doing so, and doing just that may very well result in you effectively picking your poison as, in turn, Greg McElroy and our wide receiver corps simply beats up on you by throwing it over your head.

Week Four Preview: #3 Alabama vs Arkansas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:33 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer Alabama has faced this season.

Browse more photos »

The 49-14 thumping that Alabama put on Arkansas last year in Fayetteville was easily the most lopsided game this series has seen in a decade. Last year's game, however, was also an anomaly as this series generally sees close, hard-fought contests, and none should expect another crimson landslide for a second year in a row.

There are two majors reasons for that: One, Arkansas looks to be a much better team this year than they were a year ago, and two, last year's game was much closer than the scoreboard indicated. Lopsided score notwithstanding, last year's game was actually played pretty evenly by the two teams, and the massive disparity on the scoreboard resulted from four major players all going Alabama's way. Those four plays were Glen Coffee's long touchdown run, Casey Dick's two interceptions (while driving) that were returned for touchdowns, and Terrence Cody's goal line stand to end the first half, and all of them directly resulted in Alabama touchdowns. Don't expect all of the big plays to go the Tide's way this year, and thus a much closer game this time around.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Arkansas Defense

On the surface, this seems like a lopsided match-up in the Tide's favor. The Alabama offense has been surprisingly effective to date -- 500+ yards of total offense in each of the first three games, and 127 total points -- and Greg McElroy has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The offensive line was a major question mark coming into the season, and while penalties have hurt them somewhat, they've still generally gotten the job done. Even with Julio Jones not even playing in more than half of the offensive snaps to date, nothing has really been able to slow down the Tide's offense. On the other hand, Arkansas' defense has been nothing short of abysmal to date. It was a very bad unit a year ago, and unfortunately for the Hog faithful it's one that has shown little or no improvement since.

So is it just a given that the Alabama offense is going to rack up points left and right against Arkansas? Perhaps, but let's not be so fast.

An objective look at Arkansas' defense yields a group that is very light on elite top-end talent and quality depth throughout the roster, but even so this unit may not be as hapless as many would make it seem. Clearly the Hogs had a disastrous performance last week against Georgia, but it is worth noting that performance came almost entirely without the presence of two of Arkansas' best defenders: middle linebacker Jerry Franklin and cornerback Rudell Crim. Franklin is the leader of the linebacker corps and he was ejected in the second quarter, and Crim is the team's best cornerback, but he went out with leg cramps early. And as if missing two of their best players wasn't a big enough issue in its own right, their replacements -- Terrell Williams and Greg Gatson -- were effectively outright disasters. Franklin will be back this week, however, and you can rest assured that the Arkansas medical staff will have Crim properly hydrated this time around, so their returns alone will go a long way towards improving this Arkansas defense.

The big concern for Alabama, most likely, comes in the running game. The offensive line is still a bit of an unknown commodity, and for all of the criticisms of the Arkansas defense, we really haven't been challenged in the way that this Hog front seven will challenge us. Given our proclivity towards using two-tight end sets, we practically lost five starters at the point of attack from a year ago (Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Travis McCall, and Nick Walker), and the replacements for those five starters simply don't have the size that their predecessors did. Combined we are about 100 pounds lighter at the point of attack than we were last year -- which is to say nothing of the fact that the combination of Preston Dial and Brad Smelley isn't near the blocker that Travis McCall was, size differential notwithstanding -- and that alone probably means that we cannot dominate teams in the trenches like we did a year ago.

And that is where Arkansas really challenges us. For all of the criticisms of their defense, this is a big, strong unit in the front seven, and that is something we really haven't seen this year. Virginia Tech openly traded size for speed, and both Florida International and North Texas were clearly outmatched physically. Arkansas, however, is a very different animal altogether. They average nearly 280 pounds in the front four, the linebacker corps averages around 235 pounds, and with Malcom Sheppard manning the defensive tackle position, they will be able to match our physical style of play. In all likelihood, if the Arkansas defense is to slow down the Alabama offense, this is likely how they will have to do it.

Unfortunately, however, the rest of the match-ups for the Hogs simply do not look good.

Looking at the rest of the defensive backfield, even with a healthy Rudell Crim, the secondary is still one of the worst in the conference. Starting opposite Crim is Ramon Broadway, but Broadway has made news for three things this year, none of which are good for the Hogs: Getting arrested for not showing up to traffic court, running his mouth before the Georgia game, and ultimately getting lit up by A.J. Green. He's a below average corner in coverage, and the same thing goes for the rest of the rotation at cornerback. Highly-touted true freshman Darius Winston -- a consensus five-star prospect -- has not been able to make any impact whatsoever. Likewise, the safety play from Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris has impressed no one to date.

Largely the same thing goes for the linebacker corps as well. Jerry Franklin is a fine player at middle linebacker, but while the starters surrounding him, Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton, have a good bit of size, neither of the two look to be particularly good players right now. The aforementioned Terrell Williams struggled greatly last weekend trying to fill in for Franklin, and while Jerico Nelson is a good player against the pass, at barely 200 pounds he struggles to get on the field on running downs, thus limiting his effectiveness.

The best match-up of all may very well come against the Arkansas defensive line in the passing game, which has struggled to rush the passer. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at defensive end, but neither are particularly adept pass rushers, and while Sheppard is more active than your typical interior player, there's only so much you can legitimately expect when you need your interior defensive linemen to generate the bulk of your pass rush. Despite Georgia being without its starting left tackle last week, Arkansas still couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever on Joe Cox, ultimately racking up only one sack and one hurry on approximately 30 passing attempts. Alabama may still have some issues protecting off the edge, but Greg McElroy ought to find himself with plenty of time to throw the football.

All in all, the Arkansas defense may be a bit better than it has been given credit for, and at any rate Alabama is still going to have to come out and execute successfully over the course of 60-70 plays to get the job done. Nevertheless, you still have to think that the Tide will put up more than their fair share of points this weekend. Arkansas may make running the football tough, but Arkansas' porous defensive backfield mixed with a lack of a consistent pass rush is likely a lethal combination in and of itself if Greg McElroy continues to play like he has so far this year.

Alabama Defense v. Arkansas Offense

While most expect the Alabama offense to have a big day against the struggling Arkansas defense, it's clear to everyone that it will be strength on strength when the Arkansas offense comes on the field. Both the Alabama defense and the Arkansas offense have the ability to be among the nationally elite with regard to their respective units, and making matters even more intriguing both units are led by two of the most advanced football minds in all of college football.

The Arkansas offense is a scary group, no two ways about it. Ryan Mallett has the arm strength of JaMarcus Russell, and he is easily the best pure pocket passer that Alabama has faced in years. The backfield is loaded with talented tailbacks that bring experience along with their unique mixes and matches of different physical builds. Tight end D.J. Williams is clearly the best in the conference, and back-up Ben Cleveland is a very valuable threat as a possession receiver. The wide receiver corps, too, is a good one from top to bottom. They don't have a true superstar ala Julio Jones, but they do have five or six high quality wide receivers who have good athleticism and who run good routes -- Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams are good enough to begin with, and Lucas Miller is returning this week from injury. That alone makes the Hogs very difficult to defend on the perimeter, even without saying anything with regard to Mallett. Bottom line, at the very least, this is the third-best offense in the conference, and it could easily be the best.

The only real weakness of the Arkansas offense comes up front at the point of attack, where the Hogs offensive line is seemingly still a relic of the Houston Nutt era. All five starters committed to Nutt, and not surprisingly they are generally the big, physical mashers that Nutt loved so much in his run-heavy offense. The "smallest" player on the line comes in at around 6'5 and 305 pounds, and truthfully that fact is probably doing the Hogs few favors. This line is, on the whole, a fish out of water. They are more physically built to pave the way for a run-heavy offense, but with the coaching turnover they are now being asked to pass protect against highly athletic pass rushers in a pass-happy offense. On a fundamental level it's effectively a recipe for disaster, and not surprisingly it's a team that has struggled to a degree to protect the passer. Starting right tackle DeMarcus Love probably needs to be playing inside at guard, and starting left tackle Ray Dominguez was absolutely atrocious against Georgia with four penalties and one sack allowed. The left tackle of the future is Anthony Oden, the younger brother of basketball star Greg Oden. He'll be a star one day, and the Arkansas coaches have indicated he may play some this week against Alabama, but he's a true freshman and given Nick Saban's love for giving multiple fronts that confuse offensive linemen, I'm not sure exactly how eager the Arkansas coaching staff is to put him in front of 93,000 fans. Nevertheless, if Dominguez' struggles continue, the Hogs' hand may be forced.

And this is the weakness that the Alabama defense must successfully attack to limit the Arkansas offense. The performance of our defensive backfield has been solid but not spectacular to date -- the overall statistics look good, but safety play has been shaky and highly inconsistent, Kareem Jackson has been hit or miss, and Marquis Johnson had a key penalty against Virginia Tech -- but the simple truth of the matter is that if Ryan Mallett consistently has the time to throw, it's going to be a very long day for the Tide. The Arkansas wide receiver corps is too good and Ryan Mallett has too much arm strength and accuracy to expect to be able to consistently stop the Arkanas offense if we cannot get pressure on Mallett.

Fortunately for the Tide, however, you have to like how we match against the Arkansas offensive line. Marcel Dareus is having a breakout year, Lorenzo Washington is playing better than ever, and we've gotten great pressure from the linebacker corps with Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Eryk Anders. Moreover, on obvious passing downs, we have been moving the defensive ends inside in a four man front, and then putting Hightower and Anders at end. The results have been very good, to put it mildly, and we have consistently harassed passers all year long. Given the struggles Arkansas has had at the tackle positions, all signs point towards the Tide having some success getting to Mallett.

Even with that said, though, expect the Arkansas offense to have a reasonable amount of success against the Tide regardless. The running game has the potential to be a very good one -- you mix a bunch of big, strong offensive linemen with a group of highly talented tailbacks, and that is usually what you get -- and unless the Arkansas coaching staff is blowing smoke, they plan to use the rushing attack more prominently this weekend. It could have some success, and realistically no matter how well you can pressure Mallett, all of the outstanding components of the Arkansas passing game will guarantee that the Hogs hit more than a few plays in the passing game. These guys are going to score points, period.

Putting It All Together

All in all, I don't think there is much questioning the notion that Alabama is the better team here. We have more top-end talent, more quality depth, and probably a tad bit more experience as well. As long as Greg McElroy continues to play like he has to date, you have to imagine that Alabama will score more than their fair share of points tomorrow, and we should come away with the victory. Nevertheless, this game is far from a given, and it is likely to be a closely fought contest that goes into the fourth quarter. Arkansas is at worst a solid SEC team, and the difference between the two teams is far from gaping.

While it seems like we should be able to take full advantage of the Arkansas defense, truth be told we are probably going to have to do just that in order to win this game. Bamagrad has talked about these spread passing teams before, and I think he makes a good point: You can have a good defense and play well, but at the end of the day they are still good enough offensively to put up 24-28 points on the board. That could very well happen to us on Saturday, and if our special teams breakdowns continue, we could very easily be needing to score 31-35+ points in order to be able to get the victory. Arkansas is an improved team over last year, and they pulled off some pretty big upsets even then -- another victory over LSU, and came within a hair of knocking off Ole Miss as well. Rest assured, the Hogs will collect some more scalps this year, and it won't be a shock if they head back to Fayetteville with a crimson scalp in their possession.

Hope for the best.

The Virginia Tech Preview: Tide Offense v. Hokie Defense

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

Editor's Note: This will be the first installment in a four-piece series that will give an in-depth preview of the individual unit match-ups, as well as a special teams preview, and finally ending on Friday with a final wrap-up before the two teams face off on Saturday night.

The Virginia Tech Defense

Longtime Hokie DC Bud Foster

It goes without saying that the reputation of the "Lunch Pail Defense" precedes itself. Few programs in all of college football can boast a defense that has been as consistently successful as the Hokies have been over such a long period of time. No consultation of the statistical indexes is needed to understand that Virginia Tech is annually one of the best defensive units in the country, and the accomplishments of that group are highly impressive over the years. It's a unit that is generally near the top of the country in terms of scoring defense and total defense each and every year, consistently producing big plays, and with over 30 players drafted under the leadership of defensive coordinator Bud Foster, it's fair to say that there is a solid pipeline running straight from the Hokie defense to the NFL. Perhaps even more impressive, during Foster's era in Blacksburg, there has been at least one defensive player each and every year to earn All-American honors.

And, of course, the backbone of the Hokie defense is the aforementioned Bud Foster, the long time Tech defensive coordinator. It goes without saying that this is not an attempt to undermine Frank Beamer in any way, but nevertheless the Hokies have won a lot of games this decade, and it generally hasn't been a prolific offense leading them to victory. No, it's been an outstanding defense, and Foster is at the center of that. The 50-year old Murray State alum became defensive coordinator in 1995, at the ripe old age of 36, and has been an institution in Blacksburg ever since. The Broyles Award is given annually to the top assistant coach in the country, with Foster winning it in 2006, and no other assistant coach in the country has been chosen as a finalist as many times as he has. With such a long reputation of success, Foster could have easily had his pick of many good head coaching jobs, but he has opted to stay at Virginia Tech, and in all fairness he may very well be the best pure defensive coordinator in the country.

As a unit, the Hokies are a very aggressive defense, and Foster himself is very open and honest about wanting to dictate the flow of the game to the offense instead of vice versa. Underlying this aggressive defense is a unit that is built on speed, and one that not so secretly sacrifices size for speed. If you look at the Virginia Tech defensive line, it's a small unit. Many of their defensive ends are 250 pounds and under, and some of their interior players are 280 pounds and under. Likewise, the linebacker corps is light as well, with more than a few players barely hovering above the 200 pound limit. All told, the average size of the defensive line is around 267 pounds and the average size of the linebacker corps is around 220 pounds. By comparison, the Alabama defensive line averages around 300 pounds, and the linebackers almost 250. Tech defensive ends would be playing Jack linebacker at Alabama, and Rolando McClain, if he transferred to Virginia Tech, would instantly be a defensive end. To be sure, some of those disparities are a result in the different type of player needed for the 4-3 and the 3-4, but that alone doesn't explain the disparity in its entirety. Again, it's a unit that is built on speed, and one that openly sacrifices size for speed in the front seven.

The end result of a defense so heavily reliant on speed is about what you would expect. They are very quick, and running east and west on this unit isn't easy. Moreover, because of the overall speed -- and the general level of hustle consistently displayed by this group -- they tend to pursue well downfield, and the short-yardage quickness does allow them to make more than their fair share of tackles for loss in the running game. Moreover, it goes without saying that the speed first approach means that they are particularly a dangerous team rushing the quarterback off the edge. On the other hand, though, the lack of size does have it's drawbacks, particularly against big, powerful teams who -- when playing technically sound football up front -- can then generally have their way with the relatively light Hokies.

Also, before moving any further, a couple of position specific points should be addressed with regard to their impact on the Hokie defense, and these positions are, in Foster's parlance, the Whip linebacker, the rover, and the boundary corner. The Whip linebacker is an outside linebacker that functions in many ways like Nick Saban's Jack linebacker, playing to the wide side of the field -- the "field" side in Foster's terminology. The Whip linebacker generally plays zone coverage against the pass, but Foster loves to get creative with him and use him as an edge rusher against the passer, and also as a key player in run blitzes. The boundary corner plays to the short side of the field and is almost always locked in man coverage -- as opposed to the field corner, who plays the wide side and is more zone oriented -- and that position has a bit of a special place in Foster's lore because of the quality of players who have been given that designation. Finally, the rover is a hybrid safety player who is generally given a good bit of free reign, and one that has large responsibilities against both the pass and the run.

The Hokie Defense: A Critical Look

That glowing description of the Hokie defense notwithstanding, no defensive unit is perfect, and the Hokies are no different. Every defensive unit has flaws and weaknesses, and the same thing goes for this group as well. On the surface the Virginia Tech defense was outstanding last year, just looking at the major statistical categories, but if you dig deeper you begin to see that there is more than initially meets the eye.

In the passing game, the Hokies finished last year a solid 28th in the country in passing efficiency defense, but as is usually the case, things aren't necessarily so simple. The entire QB rating statistic has many detractors, shortcomings, and legitimate criticisms, and by analyzing the quality of pass defense based solely on opponent QB rating allows those statistical shortcomings to bleed through, and you can make a valid case that that happens when you look at the Hokies' defense.

Looking beyond the 28th placed ranking in passing efficiency defense, things quickly aren't so rosy. Truth be told, passing effiency defense isn't the best way to analyze the quality of a pass defense, the best way to do that is to look at yards per passing attempt (the favored pass defense statistic of many defensive gurus), and by that metric the Hokies really struggled a year ago, allowing roughly 7.14 yards per passing attempt. That number, in fact, put the Hokies at only 77th in the nation. And things were actually even much worse when you consider yards per completion. By that metric, the Hokies allowed 13.54 yards per completion, "good" for only 111th in the country out of 119 Division 1-A teams.

And much of the same criticism can be made of the Virginia Tech run defense as well. It, too, looks good based on the fact that the Hokies finished 14th in the country in rushing defense, but again it becomes a bit suspect the closer you look. The Hokies were a great pass rushing team a year ago (more on that later), and of course yardage and attempts lost as a result of sacks are, thanks to the methodology currently used, counted towards rushing statistics, even though they are really passes. For a great pass rushing team like that Hokies, that arbitrarily makes the run defense look more impressive than it really is. If you factor out the sacks, however, the Hokies 1735 yards on 416 carries, thus allowing about 4.1 yards per carry, not an overly impressive number. Moreover, the Hokies were great at stopping running games behind the line, posting 65 tackles for loss on running downs, and when you factor out those numbers, suddenly the average jumps to about 5.2 yards per carry. Bottom line, when the Hokies were not able to use their outstanding quickness to shoot the gaps and make a tackle in the backfield, their lack of size in the defensive front seven generally meant that their opponents were able to have their way in the running game.

Furthermore, just looking at the data, the Hokies were a team that was generally pretty good at limiting the run to a degree, but not a very good one at stopping the run outright. Even leaving the sack totals into the raw rushing statistics -- which again arbitrarily inflates the quality of their actual run defense -- eight teams rushed for over 100 yards against the Hokies last year, and only three times did the Hokies keep an opponent under 60 rushing yards (and one of those times came against Division 1-AA Furman). By comparison, only two teams cracked the 100 yard barrier against the Tide (one of which was national champion Florida), and Alabama held eight teams to 60 yards or fewer.

What all of this describes is a defense that was generally a good one, but one that became far too reliant on the big play. As mentioned earlier, the Hokies rushed the passer with great success by generating 35 sacks on only 343 passing attempts, giving them an adjusted sack rate of 10.3%, one of the highest in the country. Likewise, by racking up 65 tackles for loss on only 416 carries, Tech averaged a tackle for a loss on about 15.6% of all running downs, a number right on par with what the Alabama run defense posted. Furthermore, even more impressive, by snagging 20 interceptions on only 343 passing attempts, the Hokies were #1 in the country last year in interception rate at 5.81%. And, again, in a sense that's really the problem, they were far too reliant on those big plays. Yes they were generating sacks, tackles for loss, and interceptions in great numbers, but when they weren't doing that they were really struggling as a unit. When they didn't stop tailbacks behind the line, they were giving up well over five yards per pop. And when they weren't able to sack the quarterback or snag an interception, they were giving up over seven yards per passing attempt, and almost more yardage per completion than just about any other team in the country.

And that's the Virginia Tech defense in a nutshell. They are a fine coached unit that is very fast and that plays very hard. They can use their speed to kill you in more ways than one, and they have generally been successful. On the other hand, they are a unit that relies heavily on the big play, and if you as an offense can limit those big defensive plays, you suddenly find yourself facing a unit that you can have a good deal of success against.

The Alabama Offense

No one could have imagined the impact that Jim McElwain would have on the Alabama offense when he arrived a year ago from Fresno State. Most people liked what he had done in the valley, but no one expected that he could come in and immediately turn the Tide's offense into one of the most productive seen in Tuscaloosa in ages. But, of course, football is a constantly renewing game, and each team and each opponent is different from year-to-year, so you must constantly re-prove your merits, and in real terms that means that the accomplishments of 2008 for the Alabama offense are, for all intents and purposes, ancient history. Despite the return of the coaching staff, this is a new offensive unit, and many key faces are missing from a year ago. And considering that in the post-Bryant era, Alabama offenses have rarely been anything particularly special, it indeed is something that we will have to prove all over again in 2009.

Tide OC Jim McElwain

And, oddly enough, as much as we would probably like to think we know the generalities of McElwain and the method to his madness, there is in all actuality a high degree of uncertainty with regard to this offense. In all honesty, who are we? What are we going to do, and exactly how are we going to put points on the board? Can anyone here legitimately answer those questions? I, for one, cannot. And if you think you can, I suggest you head to Vegas.

I know who Bud Foster is, and I know what the Virginia Tech defense is about. Foster as a coordinator has a particular scheme in place that, while obviously changing in some regards, in many ways remains the same. In a sense he and his defense are known commodities. We know the type of player he is looking for, and we generally know how he likes to use particular players and skill sets. We know, generally speaking, what they need to do in order to be successful within their system, and we generally know how they are trying to go about playing winning football. But we know none of those things, really, when it comes to McElwain, aside from the absolute rudimentary basics.

Of course the easy answer -- and in all fairness, perhaps even the correct answer for 2009 -- is that we will try to replicate the basic strategy employed a year ago: physically dominate our opponents in the trenches in the running game, run it right down their throats, and only throw the football when and where we want to. But the problem with that is that there is no guarantee that the pre-requisites needed to be in place in order to do that will once again be there in 2009. Again, teams change, and many of the key faces that powered such an attack no longer reside in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, it's almost impossible to overstate how difficult it is to consistently execute such an attack, and how little we threw the football last year... we probably threw the football fewer times last year than any non-option-based SEC team has seen in ages. Thus, even though that's the easy answer, that's not necessarily to say the correct answer.

And making matters more intriguing is McElwain himself and the way the team has conducted itself thus far. With regard to McElwain, In 2007 at Fresno State, his offensive attack operated generally out of the shotgun and threw the football heavily. And back when he was offensive coordinator at Montana State in the mid-1990's, he threw the ball all over the place there too. One way or the other, as a former quarterback, it's hard to say that McElwain is, at his core, anything over than a guy who generally likes to air it out. And moreover, regarding the team thus far, in the A-Day game we operated heavily out of the shotgun and threw the football a great deal. Likewise, in the two scrimmages this Fall, we have relied heavily on the passing attack. Sure the passing game generally needs more work in scrimmages, and yes coaches like to use it more because it can help cut down on injuries a bit, but at some point you have to say that we are working so heavily on the passing game because we actually want to throw the football more.

Moreover, you can just get ready for it, sooner or later the Alabama offense is changing. Nick Saban, sitting on his proverbial throne at 100 Bryant Drive, wants a balanced attack, and it's only a matter of time before we get that balanced attack. And regardless of how productive last year's unit was, it was the antithesis of balanced, so that way of life won't last much longer (if any longer). Rest assured, we aren't recruiting elite pocket passer quarterbacks and high-end receivers galore just so we can suddenly channel our inner Woody Hayes come Saturday afternoon. Ultimately, this isn't even a question of debate, it's a question of the particular specifics of an evolutionary timeframe. We were a very run-heavy attack last year, but we will eventually be a balanced attack. Period. The only question is just how far we will be along our evolutionary path in 2009.

With Julio taking hand offs and talk of a secret Wildcat package, just what will the Tide offense look like this year?

And, again, it could mean that our offensive attack in 2009 could be different than what many expect. It may very well not be as run heavy as many think. The passing game may very well play a more enhanced role. Furthermore, going away from the conservative route, with end arounds to Maze, hand-offs to Julio, and talk of Trent Richardson running the Wildcat, we are seemingly looking to find unique ways within the offense in order to get the ball into the hands of the ever growing amount of high-end athletes that roam Tuscaloosa. And, consider the resurgence of Terry Grant. Most had him set to transfer after going incognito last year, but he returned and has done so well that he's now listed as the #2 tailback on the depth chart. Given his lack of power and size, Grant had no real place in last year's power-driven, smashmouth offense, so what does his resurgence tell us? Among other things, it indicates that the offense itself is changing... he wasn't the right type of physical player last year to get a spot, and if things were staying the same he should be riding the pine this year too, yet obviously he has found at least some role. All the more evidence to think that the scheme is changing.

Either way, things are changing in Tuscaloosa, we just don't know by how much just yet. So, who are we as an offense? I really cannot answer that.

The 'Bama Offense: A Critical Look

While we cannot say exactly what the Alabama offense will be like in 2009, what we can do is analyze the more specific components of the offense and find our their strengths and weaknesses. And with many starters returning from last year's offense, much of the individual components of the offense are fairly well known commodities coming into the season. Mark Ingram should be a slight upgrade over what he was a year ago... a power runner with good speed, and improved pass blocking abilities. Julio Jones, if healthy, will be almost a lock for the All-America teams. Mike Johnson should continue to be a high-end guard, and Drew Davis should continue to be an adequate right tackle. Colin Peek, despite having never played for the Tide, is an experienced player and should be an above average tight end if he can remain healthy. Players like Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, Brad Smelley, Marquis Maze, and others were all solid players a year ago, and they should continue to develop accordingly as their respective careers progress. Again, those players are relatively well known commodities at this point.

The real question is regarding the replacement players for those now gone from the 2008 team that looked to be replaced by new faces. Specifically, that means the loss of Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, and John Parker Wilson. And by this point, at least, we know who those replacements will be -- respectively, James Carpenter, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Greg McElroy -- so we can at least get a pretty good idea of exactly what to expect in regard to their performance.

LT James Carpenter

James Carpenter will probably play at a pretty high level at left tackle. He has the prototypical frame of a left tackle, good athleticism, considerable time in the system now, and he was a highly pursued recruit by two of the national powers looking for him to start immediately (Oklahoma being the other). He won't be Andre Smith, but he should be a pretty high quality left tackle in his own right, and likely the best we've had in a while not named Andre Smith. And, to a lesser extent, the same likely goes for William Vlachos at center. He's not a superstar, but his lack of height makes it almost impossible to get underneath him, and that combined with his strength makes him a great drive-blocker which is really what Saban apparently wants in a center in the first place. The real linchpin of it all, though, is Barrett Jones at right guard, and frankly any projection on him is going to be nothing more than an outright guess at this point.

It should be noted that the offensive line, in particular, remains a major concern moving forward into 2009. For all of our smashmouth abilities last year in the running game, we still really struggled to protect the passer. Our adjusted sack rate was near the bottom of the SEC again, and edge rushers still gave us lots of problems even with Andre Smith in the lineup. It's hard to see that really improving in 2009 with Smith in Cincinnati, and if the 2009 line loses the ability to consistently manhandle opposing defensive lines in the running game -- something that can easily go away with just one weak link in the line -- then the line as a whole may very well turn into a net liability for the Tide, dragging the entire offense down with it.

Greg McElroy, obviously, remains the x-factor that will have the biggest impact on the Tide. The hope, of course, is that McElroy turns out to be a great player who plays well regardless of what is surrounding him. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to be the case, and McElroy's performance, more than anything else, will likely be a function of the performance of the supporting cast surrounding him. That could be either good news or bad news, depending on how the rest of the team develops. Moreover, questions remain about McElroy's ability to not beat ourselves. John Parker Wilson did that last year -- though in all fairness, he had a bit of luck helping him on the way, as some opponents dropped a couple of relatively easy, potentially game-changing interceptions -- but only time will tell if McElroy can do that this year. It goes without saying that avoiding really bad plays is effectively the same as making really good plays.

Now, in all fairness, when you put it all together, it's hard to see this Alabama offense being a bad one, based on the individual components. We've got a potential All-American at wide receiver, a backfield loaded with star tailbacks, plenty of other high-end athletes for the skill positions, an above average tight end, and at least three or perhaps four good, quality offensive linemen. That's enough to score more than a few points, but again it becomes a question of degree determined by the performances of the new faces. You can take that core group, add good contributions from the newcomers, and get a very good offense. On the other hand, you can take that core group and add some struggles from the newcomers, and suddenly you find yourself with a very middling offense. That distinction alone can easily be the difference between an 11-1 team and an 8-4 team.

And that is really all that we can safely say about or offense moving into this year. Unlike the Foster defense, or the Alabama defense for that matter, the Alabama offense doesn't really fit nicely into a little predictive blurb. We do not know how good it will ultimately be, nor do we really know what form it will take.

What To Look For

So, all things considered, how do things look to play out on Saturday night?

First and foremost, Bud Foster has a bit of an old school mindset as a defensive coordinator, one that places a great emphasis on stopping the run. Mix that with his very open intent to dictate the flow of the game to the offense -- and not the other way around -- and I think you can fairly expect Foster to make his first order of business stopping the Alabama running game. In this game a year ago, Alabama controlled the line of scrimmage from the opening kick-off with a power running game. The Hokies, though, won't let us go easily into that good night for a second year in a row. Their defense is again a small one, built on speed at the expense of size, so if we can get a helmet on a helmet, that's a match-up we ought to win more often than not. Thus, expect Foster to really dial up the run blitzes early, especially with Whip linebacker Cody Grimm, and to also keep the rover near the line of scrimmage for help in run support.

And, of course, if the Hokies can have some success stopping the Alabama running game on early downs, thus getting the Tide into some obvious passing situations, you know Foster and company have to be dying to find out what Greg McElroy is made of. The Hokie defense itself is largely built to take advantage of teams facing obvious passing situations, but the pressure will be even more so for McElroy, especially with the new faces on the offensive line. As mentioned earlier, the Virginia Tech defense is one that has come to rely heavily on the big play, and you know that McElroy is an inexperienced quarterback to whom the Hokies will be doing everything in their power to force him into making a big, negative play.

On the other hand, this approach by Foster and the Virginia Tech defense does present more than a few opportunities for the Tide, particularly in the early stages of the game. If you can say that Virginia Tech will bring the rover near the line of scrimmage and that they will want to -- and perhaps have to -- dial up a high dosage of run blitzes on early downs in order to shut down the Alabama running game, that correspondingly opens up opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Receivers will then likely see a lot of man coverage with little safety help on the outside, and likewise a good tight end like Colin Peek can also have a big day under such circumstances, particularly with play action. Now, to be sure, it goes without saying that doing this will be a very high risk/ high reward strategy, and one that could just as easily backfire on the Tide. Running the ball straight into the line and playing it safe may very well be the smart thing to do -- yes it will likely result in some three and outs, but with the quality of our defense, trading punts isn't necessarily a bad thing -- and avoiding big, negative plays is arguably priority #1 for the Crimson Tide offense. Nevertheless, this preview would be incomplete if it was not mentioned that the possibility exists for the 'Bama coaching staff to try to make some big plays early in the passing game.

Man coverage down field with no safety help spells M-A-Z-E-T-D.

The Virginia Tech boundary corner position also needs to be kept in mind. As opposed to the "field" corner, which is generally stashed on the far side of field with more help from the safety -- and with the quarterback having to make longer throws in his direction -- the Tech boundary corner position spends most of his time in man coverage with little or no safety help, and the position always features the Hokies best corner. And the position has produced a long line of future NFL players, going back to DeAngelo Hall, Jimmy Williams, Brandon Flowers, and most recently Macho Harris. With Harris now in the NFL, that job will fall to senior Stephan Virgin in 2009, and he looks to continue the Hokies' history of high play at the position. Nevertheless, though, it does create the possibility for Alabama to make some plays in the passing game. I doubt Julio Jones will see man coverage -- they'll probably combo him most of the time, and despite general thinking to the contrary, the defense's #1 cornerback generally does not cover the offense's #1 wide receiver anywhere near as much as you would probably expect -- but some Alabama receiver will, and with the Tide's depth at the position, someone will be getting an opportunity to make some big plays in space.

At the end of the day, the biggest single match-up in this game, however, will be Alabama offensive line versus the Virginia Tech front seven, and whichever side wins the majority of those battles will probably have an edge when the clock reads 0:00. And in terms of protecting the passer, this really is not what the Tide wanted to see. Again, we struggled to protect the passer last year, and with three linemen gone, it's a major concern. And now we start the year against a team with great edge rushing abilities and a lot of small, speed pass rushers, so it's far from an ideal scenario. Defensive end Jason Worilds will be playing in the NFL next year, and at 6'2 and around 260 pounds, he's a dangerous player. He has the speed and quickness to beat people on the outside, but he uses his hands well and his fluid hip movement allows him to quickly change direction in route to the quarterback. Starting opposite Worilds is Nekos Brown, and while Brown isn't the caliber of player that Worilds is, by tipping the scales at only about 235 pounds, he's a player with great quickness who will be tough to handle off the edge, if nothing else. Likewise, the same thing goes for the back-ups, Chris Drager and Stephen Friday, both weighing in the 240 pound range. It all presents a daunting task for the Tide, and one that will definitely require very solid play in pass protection by backs and the tight ends.

Finding a way to neutralize the Whip linebacker will also be key. As mentioned earlier, Foster loves to use him as a rusher, and keeping him out of the backfield will be an absolute necessity for the Tide. Normally the Hokies have co-starters at the Whip position, but injuries have made that a bit more difficult. The two normal co-starters at the position are Cam Martin and Cody Grimm -- Grimm was second in the ACC last year in tackles for loss, trailing only teammate Jason Worilds -- but Martin has been slowed by a knee injury. He underwent knee surgery at the end of last season to, in part, repair a torn PCL, and that caused him to miss all of Spring practice. He is back this Fall, but the knee has not healed completely, and it has turned into a lingering issue that has caused him to miss some time this Fall as well. Bud Foster said last Friday, eight days ago, that, "Right now, Cam Martin is not full-speed. He’s getting better. Right now, if we can get 15 good plays out of him a game early, that would be great for us." So it looks like while Martin will play some, he won't play much, and he'll be far from 100% when he does. That will help the Tide in a sense that it gets redshirt freshman Jeron Gouveia-Winslow on the field a bit more -- a player Foster opently stated was still a year away where from he needed to be physically -- but even so you're still going to have to find a way to stop Grimm. As mentioned earlier, the Alabama backs and tight ends are going to have to pass block especially well to help neutralize a player like Grimm, and the Whip position in general.

That said, worries in the passing game notwithstanding, the opportunities are there aplenty in the running game if we can just get things opened up slightly. John Graves (6'3 and 277) and Cordarrow Thompson (6'1 and 301) start on the interior defensive line, and they are smaller players who Alabama's interior offensive line -- in particular Mike Johnson -- should do well against. Likewise, there are some other new faces in the Hokie linebacker corps in Barquell Rivers and Jake Johnson, and again you have to like how we match up there. Again, if we can consistently get a helmet on a helmet, we have an advantage in the running game, one that we shouldn't have any great deal of difficulty exploiting with the number of high-end tailbacks on the roster.

The real problem in the running game, however, will be getting to that point. At the risk of sounding repetitive, Foster will not just give us the run, we're going to have to earn it. He'll use numbers and run blitzes to shut us down on the ground. And in real terms that means Greg McElroy will eventually have to make some plays in the passing game to open things up -- and in so doing the Alabama offensive line will have to keep him upright and out from under duress. If McElroy can consistently hit some good gains in the passing game, without making the big negative plays, the Hokies will have to retreat and the Alabama offensive line will largely be able to have their way with the Hokie front seven, thus leading to a lot of production in the running game. On the other hand, if McElroy struggles to throw the football -- and, if worse, makes some big mistakes -- the Hokies will keep the Alabama running game in check with numbers and run blitzes, and it will be a long night in Atlanta for the Tide.

And that is the match-up in a nutshell. 'Bama should be able to run the ball well against the Hokies, but Foster will bring numbers and dial-up the run blitzes to stop it. That, mixed with his players quickness, will likely most the Tide's running game not very productive. To counter that, the Tide will have to make some plays in the passing game, and we'll have to get the job done keeping the Hokies furious pass rush at bay. If we do that the running game will come to life, and it will be a big night for the 'Bama offense, mixed with a very likely victory. On the other hand, if we struggle in the passing game, Tech will take away the run, and the Hokie faithful will be having plenty to cheer about with the Tide struggling to move the football all night long. And Alabama will be left having to hope that the Crimson Tide defense is every bit as good as it has been billed to be in order to salvage hopes of pulling out the victory.

An Interview with Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples

kleph — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0000

SI says, "Kool Aid tastes great!"

The Sports Illustrated College Football Preview issue hit the stands this week and that vaunted publication decided to put Ole Miss on the cover as the team to watch this season. Just like everyone else. Not only is Alabama two slots behind the Rebels on the magazine's Top 20 list, but they pick Ole Miss to win the SEC West and face Florida in the SEC Championship on Dec. 5.

As soon as I got wind of this I said there's somebody got some 'splainin to do. I picked up the phone and started screaming at every mid-level panjandrum in the American Management Association Building in New York I could reach until I found out who the bastard was responsible for this outrage!

Well... not exactly. What actually happened was their PR people sent us an e-mail out of the blue asking if we'd like to talk to the SI SEC writer to promote this issue of the magazine and we said, "sure."

So yesterday morning I gave Andy Staples a call and despite the fact he's on leave due to the recent birth of his son (and for that blessed occasion we extend our warmest congratulations to both he and his wife) he was more than willing to chat a bit and expand on the points he made about Alabama in the current issue of the magazine.

In addition, Andy took the time to ~~throw his SI colleagues under the bus~~ explain why Ole Miss is so popular in the polls, outline what he believes is the real balance of power in the SEC this season and detail how he thinks "The Process" is progressing in Tuscaloosa.

So, why do you hate Alabama so much?

What? I owe Alabama my life! My parents met in a class in Tuscaloosa. It was a math class and my mom had gotten an A on a test and my dad had gotten a D or an F and he looked over her shoulder and said "Can I study with you?" And that was how they met. I would not be here if it were not for the University of Alabama.

That’s pretty awesome.

My mom actually took a "Folk and Square Dancing" class with Kenny Stabler. Of course, from what she said, he wasn't in class very often.

Why is there all this Ole Miss love this pre-season?

Well, it’s got to be somebody. Actually if you are talking about the main rankings in the magazine, that’s a collective thing which is the result of a bunch of people on staff getting together to come up with the list. If you look at my first AP poll you’ll see those schools [in the SEC West] are actually a lot closer together. The fact is Ole Miss has a strong team. They lost Peria Jerry and Michael Oher, and that’s a lot to lose, but they are still bringing a lot of talent back this year.

And their schedule is really favorable particularly when compared to the other SEC schools … other than Florida who got the best draw of any SEC school I’ve seen in a year they are supposed to be good. Ole Miss does have to go to South Carolina and to Vanderbilt early but that’s about as tough as it gets before they get into the real meat of it. Potentially they could be meeting Alabama on Oct. 10 undefeated.

And part of it is novelty. It’s pretty unusual to have Ole Miss being seriously considered for a National Championship any year. When it’s LSU and Alabama, people are a lot more used to hearing about them.

Ole Miss has one of the premier QB's in the conference.

OK. What about Alabama? How much of our placement is due to what happened in January in the Sugar Bowl rather than what we are likely to put on the field next month?

I think people are looking at the Utah game and how the [offensive] line played and are thinking that’s how the line will play this year. And that’s just wrong. I was an offensive lineman myself and I can tell you, when you take out a guy that close to game time [Andre Smith's suspension] and you shuffle things around… there is not going to be any chemistry. Things are not going to go very well for you. Utah took advantage of that.

Now, even if you took those very same guys but after they have been through spring and fall practices, they would be a completely different unit. That line last year was so good. Antoine Caldwell, was such a leader, and Andre Smith was fantastic so with those guys gone, the big question in the minds of people is how will the line gel and work together? From what I’ve read, the line still remains in flux. So, yes, I think a lot of observers want to see that offensive line and how it comes together before bumping Alabama higher in the rankings.

How much of the uncertainty is due to previous years when we had substantially less depth to draw on when we lost such players?

I think there is that expectation that those players are not going to be there to fill in those positions whereas with Texas or USC you just expect there will be someone waiting to step in and perform at the same level. I think you will see that happen with Florida and Alabama in the next few years. This is where you should really start to see the effect of Nick Saban’s recruiting. Obviously you had some guys like Julio Jones and Don'ta Hightower and those guys who blossomed early. But the impact of those strong recruiting classes coming along as they are supposed to will start to be seen with this group this year.

Is there any way that Greg McElroy isn’t an upgrade from JPW?

Nobody knows. I’ve never seen a quarterback no more roundly criticized than Wilson but McElroy is an unknown quantity. From what I'm hearing, people are likely to be surprised by McElroy’s athleticism and ability to scramble when a play breaks down. Which is great for an offensive line that is trying to come together since it’s a little easier to protect a quarterback that can move around like that.

But nobody has seen how McElroy performs on the biggest stage. If this were USC or Texas, he’d be getting that benefit of the doubt. But because Alabama isn’t seen as having hit that stride in terms of depth the general perception is he’s got to prove himself. Obviously, he may answer every single question on Sept. 5 because, for an opening game it doesn’t get any bigger than what Alabama is playing.

So that makes the opening game with Virginia Tech that much more important?

But that could help as well. In Destin in May [at the annual SEC meetings], Nick Saban was discussing why he does certain things and from a recruiting aspect playing the feature game on opening night is big but, more than that even, a game like that to start the season dictates how your off season is going to go. That's what the team is striving for all of the off-season. All of those players know there is a BCS conference champion waiting to play them and they have to be ready for it. And I wonder… look at Florida, for example. They open against Charleston Southern. How do you get psyched up to face Charleston Southern?

The Rebels' schedule is remarkably favorable this season.

But Virginia Tech isn’t a conference game. Who is going to be our big test in the SEC?

You guys need to worry about LSU. I think LSU is going to be a lot better… a lot better. I think they have the potential, if they can put all the pieces together, to beat everybody. My post Spring top 25 I had them at No. 13 and now I’ve got them up to No. 9. I keep moving them up every time I talk to someone over there.

What has impressed you so much?

To start, they’ve got a pretty experienced offensive line. They have got the best returning back in the SEC with Charles Scott. Jordan Jefferson was a much better back at the end of the season than Jarrett Lee who was their downfall in a lot of games last year. Defensively they are going to be better as well. They’ve moved people around. They’ve got their defensive linemen this year that haven’t had a chance to really show what they can do.

Then they’ve got Chad Jones as their starting free safety which probably should have happened a year ago. Everyone keeps talking about Eric Berry as a Heisman Candidate but Jones is up there with him in terms of athletic ability. I love Eric Berry and the way he plays but Chad Jones could be that kind of guy at LSU.

They have got a lot of talent and guys that know how to put it together. Alabama fans should know that [Defensive Coordinator] John Chavis [formerly at Tennessee] can put a good defense together. Last year the book on these guys was they were very predictable and offenses knew exactly what they were going to do. Chavis’ whole MO is disguising where the pressure is going to come from, disguising the kind of coverage you are going to see.

So, how about the East? Is Florida the shoo-in for the SEC Championship that every seems to think they are?

One thing that is clear after last year is that everybody is beatable. There are no unbeatable teams anymore. An upper echelon SEC team can beat Florida, but it depends on the day. Most days, given the team they have right now, Florida will win those games. Sure, Florida probably has more talent than anyone else right now, at least more experienced talent, but that’s only part of the equation. Florida is likely going to face LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship and any of those three teams can beat them on a given day.

What about Georgia?

I think people are going to be stunned by Georgia this year. People don’t seem to appreciate the amount of injuries that squad suffered last year. They had an obscene number, something like 19 players, including a number of key players, for the season. Their second day of practice they lost their starting left tackle [Trinton Sturdivant] and their first game they lost a starting defensive tackle [Jeff Owens]. Nobody recovers from that kind of losses, I don’t care how deep you think your roster may be.

They are going to win ten games and [Georgia quarterback Joe] Cox is a lot like McElroy, he’s come from a great high school program then had to wait behind another guy for awhile so nobody knows what he can do yet. This really smacks of 2005 when people said they had lost all these great players and they were going to go into the tank and DJ Shockley comes in and leads them to an SEC Championship.

A host of starters are returning to Oxford this year.

So, basically, despite the popular perception of the pecking order, the SEC is pretty much a crap shoot this year?

Especially the West. Don’t forget there is a team out in Fayetteville, Arkansas that has the potential to beat anybody as well. So, it’s going to be crazy. It’s going to be a lot of fun but it’s going to be tough for a lot of people. You are going to see some SEC teams that came into the season with National Championship aspirations that lose two games. They might still have a chance at the conference title but they are going to be pretty much out of the conversation in terms of the BCS title.

Then what separates the "haves" and the "have nots" in the SEC?

Talent. I was there for Meyer’s first three seasons covering them for the Tampa Tribune and to look at them now compared to when they won that title in 2006… it’s not really a comparison. They have these true freshmen projected third stringers that could start for several other SEC teams. It’s just disgusting the level of talent they have got now. And Alabama seems to be doing the same kind of thing. It’s going to be very difficult for everybody else because it’s getting to the point that Florida, Alabama and LSU are the only teams that can pull this off and consistently stockpile talent to this degree.

What has impressed you most about Alabama’s recruiting?

That Alabama has done it quickly, perhaps more quickly than anybody thought they could. The way they came in and locked down the state was simply impressive. It was kind of a perfect situation with the 2008 recruiting class when you had one of the best years for talent that they’ve had in a long time in Alabama and then you had Nick Saban really hitting his stride as a recruiter after laying the groundwork with the year prior. When that happened they really let people know they were a force to be reckoned with and then this year they went and were able to get everyone important they needed to get in the state of Alabama and then went out of state for a couple of key players with elite talent they wanted.

How far away is Alabama being recognized for what they’ve achieved in terms of building depth?

If Alabama wins ten games this year, it will be assumed from now on that everyone that comes up to fill in slots on the roster are the same quality or even better. The perception is just not at that point yet. When you have a team where the third string guys are just as keen on getting playing time… that’s how you build what USC has now, what Texas has now. Florida, I think, is finally getting there.

What‘s the most immediate benefit of this largesse?

People forget that what [the new recruits] do on the practice field is way more important for the team than what they may contribute directly in a game situation. When a player comes on board that could conceivably start in a given position, then even the most established player ahead of them in the roster has to go "Whoo, I better work a little bit harder."

And there are too many questions concerning Alabama's offense.

Coach Saban has said the key to being a successful program is to "become a nightmare for your opponent." So what monster would you say this year's Alabama team is most like?

I just saw a History Channel documentary on the Twelve Labors of Hercules and so the Hydra is what comes to mind. If you cut one of the heads off, two more will grow back. And that’s a lot like Alabama’s defense. They have a lot of ways to really get at you. With that defense… it’s going to be awful hard to score on them.

How so?

First of all, thanks to Terrence Cody - and Brandon Deaderick, as well - it’s really hard to run up the middle. And that right there is the basic component of most people’s offense. And when someone tries go to the outside they’ve got Don'ta Hightower is sitting there. And so then if they try to go deep, Javier Arenas is out there waiting. That’s tough.

What is the solution?

There really is not a lot you can do so at some point you simply have to try and physically overpower them up front. And Florida did that at the SEC Championship last year, but there just aren’t many teams that can pull it off. That’s why LSU is going to be a really fun matchup to watch because LSU may have the horses to make it work. But right now we really don’t know. The big advantage of the Utah game is they probably learned their lesson. It’s not likely someone is going to get the chance to jump out in front of them again like that this season.

RBR would like to thank Andy for the interview although we must chastise his parents for having the good sense to attend the University of Alabama and then ruin it by letting their son go to the University of Florida.

Post-Spring Previews: Alabama

Gamecock Man — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:02:54 -0000

After taking on Kentucky at home, Carolina has to travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. For all the love going towards Ole Miss this off season, this game against 'Bama will most likely be the second most difficult game on the schedule, IMO. As CFN points out in regards to the Tide,

The season will be a success if ... the Tide wins the SEC title. It's asking too much to have the same regular season two years in a row with all the same injury breaks and after the SEC was down last year. But the schedule isn't bad and the team is loaded with talent and depth. So the team is better, the schedule is better, and the program will be more motivated than ever after how last year ended. Bama can't be shooting any lower than an SEC title as the goal.

This is a team that has the tools and coach to go all the way, despite the lackluster finish to last season and the fact that they lost a few offensive play makers like John Parker Wilson and Glen Coffee. A win would be an unqualified upset for us, even if we turn out to have a pretty solid team.

Let's take a look at how we match up against these guys.

Offense

Quarterback

Now that longtime starter John Parker Wilson has moved on, the Tide are looking to junior Greg McElroy to lead them to another SEC West crown. McElroy appears to be a master in the art of patience, as he also served as a longtime backup in high school to former Missouri Heisman contender Chase Daniel. McElroy has played well in mop-up duty at 'Bama and was able to take a firm hold of the starting job in spring practice despite the presence of highly recruited talents like Star Jackson on the 'Bama depth chart. McElroy's job, much like Wilson's was, will be to play the role of game manager, as the Tide's offense will again rely on a strong down-field rushing attack. Based on what we've seen so far (which is little, admittedly), McElroy looks admirably suited to doing well in the 'Bama system. While he doesn't have a huge arm, he 's accurate and makes good decisions. I'd call this a push; Stephen Garcia looks to be a little more physically talent than McElroy and may surpass McElroy as the season progresses, but McElroy gets the benefit of the doubt because he's yet to show the kinds of decision making problems that Garcia showed late last season.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

Now that star tailback Glen Coffee has left Tuscaloosa for the NFL, the Tide will need to find identity in their backfield. They'll likely employ a committee approach, much like us. Mark Ingram will probably be the number one guy; he rushed for over 700 yards as the second back in last year's rotation. Ingram pulled his hamstring and missed part of spring practice but will be ready to go in the fall. Other backs include Roy Upchurch, Terry Grant, and incoming freshman Trent Richardson, who was one of 2009's top recruiting targets. While losing Coffee hurts somewhat, it should be apparent by now that 'Bama has the talent to have another strong rushing offense. I think we're going to have a better running game this year, but we have a slight to strong disadvantage in this comparison.