SB Nation - Andre Smith

A Closer Look at the Alabama Running Game

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

Alabama running back Mark Ingram (22) looks for running room against Arkansas.

In the preview for the Arkansas game, I expressed my concerns that we may have some trouble running the football against the Hogs. My reasoning was that we were a good bit smaller at the point of attack than we were a year ago, and that we had not yet been tested by a big, physical defensive front seven. And unfortunately, as Nico pointed out yesterday, my fears were confirmed. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson combined for 26 carries on the day, and only nine of them were successes. Aside from Richardson's epic touchdown run -- which in all fairness should have been a three-yard loss -- the Hogs completely shut down the Alabama rushing attack.

So, with that poor performance in mind, I want to look a bit closer at our running game. First and foremost, I want to specifically look at our personnel at the point of attack and see how they have changed in terms of size, and then I want to see if the lack of success in the running game was really because the Hogs were committing so many defenders in order to stop the run. From there, we'll try to make some sense of it all.

First and foremost, in terms of personnel, I have compared the numbers and we are indeed a good bit smaller than we were last year at the point of attack. When we ran the ball in 2008, we generally did so out of two tight end sets, so the seven players we generally had at the point of attack were Travis McCall, Andre Smith, Mike Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Drew Davis, and Nick Walker. Of course, though, of those seven players, only Mike Johnson and Drew Davis returned for the 2009 season, and the replacements for the five outgoing players are almost all smaller than their predecessors. Only Colin Peek is bigger than the player he replaced (Nick Walker), and he is only seven pounds heavier.

On the whole, if you look at the official weights listed on the 2008 and 2009 rosters, the seven players used at the point of attack this year in the running game is a full 59 pounds lighter than it was a year ago. And, frankly, there is reason to think that the current group is even smaller than that. It goes without saying that, of course, the official rosters can be misleading in terms of accurate height and weight measurements, and even if you assume that Andre Smith legitimately did play last year at 330 pounds and that Marlon Davis was only at 300 pounds -- neither of which many objective observers believe -- nevertheless Travis McCall and Antoine Caldwell, combined, weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 18 pounds over their listed weight, so if you factor that into consideration you are suddenly almost 80 pounds lighter at the point of attack than you were a year ago. At the very least, we are a good 60 pounds lighter this year at the point of attack, in all honesty we are probably more look 100 pounds lighter up front.

Watching the game film, it's hard to come a conclusion other than that our newly found lightness is hurting us in the running game. Simply put, we just don't have the ability to manhandle opponents at the point of attack like we did a year ago. We really aren't getting smacked around up front and allowing defenders to shoot into the backfield -- which is one reason why Ingram and Richardson's combined 26 carries, only two went for a loss -- but again we are not blowing opponents off the ball either. We are no longer just driving defensive linemen backwards, with linemen shooting out to the second level to pick off linebackers and safeties. Now we are, on a much more regular basis, fighting defensive fronts to a draw where no defender really shoots through, but where, by the same token, no real holes are created for our backs. There is more to that than just pure size, but in all fairness that does seem to be playing a pretty large role in it all.

So, what about the Arkansas defense?

I've noticed that much of the Internet chatter from 'Bama fans has been that we struggled to run the football against Arkansas because the Hogs were continuously stacking the box. But, of course, that's generally the standard excuse used when someone struggles to run the football, so I want to look closer to see if there is any validity to those claims. To that end, Sunday night I broke down the game footage and charted exactly how many defenders the Arkansas defense had in the box in each run by Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Those two, again, combined for 26 carries, and I charted 24 carries (two of Richardson's carries were, inexplicably, not included in the game video at the SEC Digital Network).

And what did I find?

Well, it's a tad bit complicated, actually. Arkansas did, in fact, stuff the box on several different occasions, and they weren't particularly shy about using eight (or more) defenders in the box in order to stop the run when they felt necessary. For example, watch the following two carries by Mark Ingram:

Now, with that said, however, to say that Arkansas consistently stopped the Alabama running by putting eight or more defenders in the box isn't entirely correct. In all actuality, Arkansas only had eight or more defenders in the box a grand total of eight times (i.e. only on one-third of all runs), and one of those carries is a bit misleading because it is the Mark Ingram touchdown run against the Hogs goal line defense. So, on the surface anyway, the notion that Arkansas stopped the Alabama rushing attack by consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders really isn't on point because on two-thirds of the carries Arkansas actually had seven or fewer defenders in the box.

But again, though, it's not necessarily so simple. The "base" defense for Arkansas while trying to stop the run was to have seven defenders in the box, but if you look closely at the game film, you can see that the safeties (and at times the corners) were clearly looking to play the run. They may have not been lined up close enough to be considered "in the box," but they were nevertheless clearly playing the run and were looking to crash the line and pounce on any running play from the snap of the football. For example, look closely at the Arkansas cornerback in the following clip of Ingram's run, and the Arkansas safety in the following clip of Trent Richardson's long touchdown run.

So, in other words, even though Arkansas defense may not have been consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders in an attempt to stop the Alabama running game, they were nevertheless expending a huge amount of resources -- via the usage of at least seven defenders in the box, plus safeties and corners constantly looking in the backfield to play the run.

And, interestingly enough, on the 24 rushing attempts I charted, only three times did the Hogs have fewer than seven defenders in the box, and on all three of those runs, they had exactly six defenders in the box. Furthermore, even more interesting, when Arkansas did only put six defenders in the box, the Alabama running game was highly successful. Those three attempts resulted in approximately 25 yards on the ground. The three following videos are the three rushes that came with only six defenders in the box:

I did find those three runs very interesting, and perhaps very insightful. Obviously those three runs are a very small sample size and thus not very telling in their own right, but there mere fact that the Arkansas coaching staff chose to have only six defenders in the box a grand total of three times over the course of an entire game ought to tell you just how dangerous they feel the Alabama running game can be if you do not have strength in numbers. And, frankly, it doesn't take the second coming of Bear Bryant to figure out why... with backs as big, strong, physical, and athletic as Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, if you give them match-ups against six man fronts they are likely to run over, through, and around those defenses. Combined that not so groundbreaking insight with the high amount of success that we had in very limited opportunities against a defense with only six men in the box, and you can pretty safely conclude that you will consistently need seven or more defenders in the box to slow down our running game.

So, enough talk, exactly what are we to make of all this?

From the outset, I do think we are clearly weaker at the point of attack than we were a year ago. We cannot manhandle defensive fronts in the same way that we could a year ago, and we do struggle to run the football against overloaded fronts. On the other hand, though, we do have two great tailbacks, and even if the offensive line is no longer dominating, it's not an outright liability either. Combined, it means that we can still be a very potent threat in the running game if the opposing defense is not committing a lot of resources to stopping the run. We cannot run the ball almost at will regardless of what you do, like we could for much of last year, but we still require you to sacrifice a lot to stop our running game.

And, interestingly enough, even though we haven't had as much success running the football this year, this has nevertheless opened up things greatly in the passing game. With seven or more defenders consistently trying to stop the run, that means you consistently have four or fewer defenders playing the pass, and that combined with the reality that Julio Jones almost constantly draws double teams means that you can almost always get single coverage in space on one or more Alabama receiver every time we drop back to throw the football. Greg McElroy has been nothing short of incredible this year, and he hasn't posted his mind-boggling stat line by throwing against defenses really keying to stop the pass, that much is sure.

All in all, while the running game struggled greatly against Arkansas, the offense nevertheless continued to do extremely well as a whole, racking up over 400 yards of total offense and 35 points. Clearly, given how things have played out to date, there is a concern if a team gives us real trouble in limiting our passing game (most likely with an effective pass rush from the front four), but a team that has to devote an extraordinary amount of resources to limiting McElroy and company will most likely get gutted by Ingram and Richardson. Despite our struggles running the football against Arkansas, it is clear that any defense that spends much of its time in nickel and dime situations is going to heavy, painful doses of #22 and #3. From the looks of things to date, it seems that if you truly want to stop our running game, you're going to have to devote a large amount of resources to doing so, and doing just that may very well result in you effectively picking your poison as, in turn, Greg McElroy and our wide receiver corps simply beats up on you by throwing it over your head.

The SEC West One Month In

Year2 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:30:22 -0000

Divisional Preseason Storyline

The balance of power has shifted from the SEC East to the West. The top three teams are so close as to be interchangeable. Watch out for Arkansas, who could make a second year leap under Bobby Petrino as so many other teams have made second year leaps under good coaches.

One Month In Reality

This division is stronger than the East, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as thought. Alabama is clearly the best team of the bunch.

Preseason Storyline

How is Alabama going to deal with replacing Andre Smith and the rest of the graduating offensive linemen? It was the strength of last year's offense. Can Mark Ingram fill Glen Coffee's shoes? How about that new quarterback guy, Greg McElroy? We've heard some good practice reports, but no one knows how good he'll be until we see him on the field. At least the defense is mostly in tact.

One Month In Reality

Alabama's line has done just fine, and its four-deep at running back is terrifyingly effective. As for Greg McElroy, he's already looking better than John Parker Wilson ever did. For all the talk of Alabama just needing a game manager behind center, McElroy appears capable of being much more. The defense has resumed its role of a marauding band of pillagers, but now it will have to deal with losing Dont'a Hightower.

Preseason Storyline

We will probably get to see the real Bobby Petrino offense now that the rocket-armed pocket statue Ryan Mallett is taking over for the Dick brothers. The Razorbacks were near the top of the conference in passing last year despite the situation under center, so it should be even better now. If the defense can shore itself up some, this team could be a spoiler.

One Month In Reality

The defense may be even worse than last year, as it made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana and turned the Crimson Tide attack into a big play offense. The unit has no hope of keeping things close when the offense isn't clicking. Mallett has been good, as predicted, and his arm is dangerous from anywhere on the field. However, it's not good enough to overcome an elite defense, and it's looking like it will be a while before the Hogs become a real complete team.

Preseason Storyline

Leave it to Auburn to fire a winner for Mr. 5-19. What were they thinking? The defense will probably still be good with Gene Chizik on the staff, but the defense wasn't really the problem last year anyway. Gus Malzahn was an intriguing hire, but what can he do with the hole at quarterback? Will his spread scheme transplant be rejected like Tony Franklin's was?

One Month In Reality

It's hard to argue with much when you're 4-0 and doing it with style. The offense has surpassed 500 total yards in three of the four wins, and is right at the top of the total and scoring offense ranks with Florida. The Tigers returned to their roots as a rushing team as well, as they are currently fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that Chris Todd is sixth in the country in passing efficiency. Granted Auburn has played only ~~one~~ two teams from a Big Six conference, so the optimism is tempered a bit. However, they couldn't have put up these kinds of numbers against air last year.

Preseason Storyline

It's time for Les Miles to show something now that all of Nick Saban's players have left. Hiring John Chavis should help shore up the defense, and the offense is probably in good hands with Jordan Jefferson. Everyone who has seen a practice has raved about the skill position players, so it's looking like a bounce back year for the Tigers.

One Month In Reality

LSU is 4-0, but only just. The team is being buoyed by its 23rd ranking in scoring defense, but it is also 49th in total defense, 53rd in scoring offense, and a dismal 105th in total offense. The thing is still a work in progress, with wins over Washington, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State coming a bit too close for comfort. You can make an excuse for all of them (UW was the longest road trip in school history; Vandy does that to all conference front runners every now and then; MSU was an 11 AM game on the road and a look ahead game), but this team is out of them now. A poor performance against Georgia will likely get them beat badly.

Preseason Storyline

This is it. This is the Rebels' year. They finished last year 6-0 and beat the national champs. Most everyone important comes back. Sure it will be tough to replace Michael Oher and Peria Jerry, but with a strong rest of the D-line and the conference's second best quarterback, Ole Miss should still compete for a division championship.

One Month In Reality

Ole Miss does indeed look like the team from last year. Unfortunately, it is the one that began the season 3-4 and not the one that finished strongly. The loss of Oher is looming very large as the offense has sputtered early against Memphis and for the first three quarters against South Carolina. The defense has held up its end of the bargain so far, allowing no more than 14 points in a game, but until Jevan Snead and the offense get back on track, it will be tough to consider the Rebels a true contender to Alabama's throne.

Preseason Storyline

Hiring the offensive coordinator of the national champion, regardless of who that is, has to be considered a bit of a coup for Mississippi State. Now that Dan Mullen is in the fold though, we can't really expect much of him yet. Sylvester Croom, for all of his admirable qualities, never assembled much talent in Starkville, and conversions to spread option attacks seldom go well in the first year. A win or two in the conference would be a good year.

One Month In Reality

A 2-2 start for Mississippi State is encouraging, but it's even moreso when you consider that the Bulldogs could easily be 3-1 if not for the late game heroics of LSU's Chad Jones. MSU collected a conference win against Vanderbilt and looked good in giving LSU the scare of a lifetime. Mullen has taken Croom's offensive cesspool and turned it into the country's 25th best rushing attack. The game against Auburn didn't go so well, but otherwise things are looking up so far.

Week Four Preview: #3 Alabama vs Arkansas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:33 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer Alabama has faced this season.

Browse more photos »

The 49-14 thumping that Alabama put on Arkansas last year in Fayetteville was easily the most lopsided game this series has seen in a decade. Last year's game, however, was also an anomaly as this series generally sees close, hard-fought contests, and none should expect another crimson landslide for a second year in a row.

There are two majors reasons for that: One, Arkansas looks to be a much better team this year than they were a year ago, and two, last year's game was much closer than the scoreboard indicated. Lopsided score notwithstanding, last year's game was actually played pretty evenly by the two teams, and the massive disparity on the scoreboard resulted from four major players all going Alabama's way. Those four plays were Glen Coffee's long touchdown run, Casey Dick's two interceptions (while driving) that were returned for touchdowns, and Terrence Cody's goal line stand to end the first half, and all of them directly resulted in Alabama touchdowns. Don't expect all of the big plays to go the Tide's way this year, and thus a much closer game this time around.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Arkansas Defense

On the surface, this seems like a lopsided match-up in the Tide's favor. The Alabama offense has been surprisingly effective to date -- 500+ yards of total offense in each of the first three games, and 127 total points -- and Greg McElroy has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The offensive line was a major question mark coming into the season, and while penalties have hurt them somewhat, they've still generally gotten the job done. Even with Julio Jones not even playing in more than half of the offensive snaps to date, nothing has really been able to slow down the Tide's offense. On the other hand, Arkansas' defense has been nothing short of abysmal to date. It was a very bad unit a year ago, and unfortunately for the Hog faithful it's one that has shown little or no improvement since.

So is it just a given that the Alabama offense is going to rack up points left and right against Arkansas? Perhaps, but let's not be so fast.

An objective look at Arkansas' defense yields a group that is very light on elite top-end talent and quality depth throughout the roster, but even so this unit may not be as hapless as many would make it seem. Clearly the Hogs had a disastrous performance last week against Georgia, but it is worth noting that performance came almost entirely without the presence of two of Arkansas' best defenders: middle linebacker Jerry Franklin and cornerback Rudell Crim. Franklin is the leader of the linebacker corps and he was ejected in the second quarter, and Crim is the team's best cornerback, but he went out with leg cramps early. And as if missing two of their best players wasn't a big enough issue in its own right, their replacements -- Terrell Williams and Greg Gatson -- were effectively outright disasters. Franklin will be back this week, however, and you can rest assured that the Arkansas medical staff will have Crim properly hydrated this time around, so their returns alone will go a long way towards improving this Arkansas defense.

The big concern for Alabama, most likely, comes in the running game. The offensive line is still a bit of an unknown commodity, and for all of the criticisms of the Arkansas defense, we really haven't been challenged in the way that this Hog front seven will challenge us. Given our proclivity towards using two-tight end sets, we practically lost five starters at the point of attack from a year ago (Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Travis McCall, and Nick Walker), and the replacements for those five starters simply don't have the size that their predecessors did. Combined we are about 100 pounds lighter at the point of attack than we were last year -- which is to say nothing of the fact that the combination of Preston Dial and Brad Smelley isn't near the blocker that Travis McCall was, size differential notwithstanding -- and that alone probably means that we cannot dominate teams in the trenches like we did a year ago.

And that is where Arkansas really challenges us. For all of the criticisms of their defense, this is a big, strong unit in the front seven, and that is something we really haven't seen this year. Virginia Tech openly traded size for speed, and both Florida International and North Texas were clearly outmatched physically. Arkansas, however, is a very different animal altogether. They average nearly 280 pounds in the front four, the linebacker corps averages around 235 pounds, and with Malcom Sheppard manning the defensive tackle position, they will be able to match our physical style of play. In all likelihood, if the Arkansas defense is to slow down the Alabama offense, this is likely how they will have to do it.

Unfortunately, however, the rest of the match-ups for the Hogs simply do not look good.

Looking at the rest of the defensive backfield, even with a healthy Rudell Crim, the secondary is still one of the worst in the conference. Starting opposite Crim is Ramon Broadway, but Broadway has made news for three things this year, none of which are good for the Hogs: Getting arrested for not showing up to traffic court, running his mouth before the Georgia game, and ultimately getting lit up by A.J. Green. He's a below average corner in coverage, and the same thing goes for the rest of the rotation at cornerback. Highly-touted true freshman Darius Winston -- a consensus five-star prospect -- has not been able to make any impact whatsoever. Likewise, the safety play from Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris has impressed no one to date.

Largely the same thing goes for the linebacker corps as well. Jerry Franklin is a fine player at middle linebacker, but while the starters surrounding him, Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton, have a good bit of size, neither of the two look to be particularly good players right now. The aforementioned Terrell Williams struggled greatly last weekend trying to fill in for Franklin, and while Jerico Nelson is a good player against the pass, at barely 200 pounds he struggles to get on the field on running downs, thus limiting his effectiveness.

The best match-up of all may very well come against the Arkansas defensive line in the passing game, which has struggled to rush the passer. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at defensive end, but neither are particularly adept pass rushers, and while Sheppard is more active than your typical interior player, there's only so much you can legitimately expect when you need your interior defensive linemen to generate the bulk of your pass rush. Despite Georgia being without its starting left tackle last week, Arkansas still couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever on Joe Cox, ultimately racking up only one sack and one hurry on approximately 30 passing attempts. Alabama may still have some issues protecting off the edge, but Greg McElroy ought to find himself with plenty of time to throw the football.

All in all, the Arkansas defense may be a bit better than it has been given credit for, and at any rate Alabama is still going to have to come out and execute successfully over the course of 60-70 plays to get the job done. Nevertheless, you still have to think that the Tide will put up more than their fair share of points this weekend. Arkansas may make running the football tough, but Arkansas' porous defensive backfield mixed with a lack of a consistent pass rush is likely a lethal combination in and of itself if Greg McElroy continues to play like he has so far this year.

Alabama Defense v. Arkansas Offense

While most expect the Alabama offense to have a big day against the struggling Arkansas defense, it's clear to everyone that it will be strength on strength when the Arkansas offense comes on the field. Both the Alabama defense and the Arkansas offense have the ability to be among the nationally elite with regard to their respective units, and making matters even more intriguing both units are led by two of the most advanced football minds in all of college football.

The Arkansas offense is a scary group, no two ways about it. Ryan Mallett has the arm strength of JaMarcus Russell, and he is easily the best pure pocket passer that Alabama has faced in years. The backfield is loaded with talented tailbacks that bring experience along with their unique mixes and matches of different physical builds. Tight end D.J. Williams is clearly the best in the conference, and back-up Ben Cleveland is a very valuable threat as a possession receiver. The wide receiver corps, too, is a good one from top to bottom. They don't have a true superstar ala Julio Jones, but they do have five or six high quality wide receivers who have good athleticism and who run good routes -- Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams are good enough to begin with, and Lucas Miller is returning this week from injury. That alone makes the Hogs very difficult to defend on the perimeter, even without saying anything with regard to Mallett. Bottom line, at the very least, this is the third-best offense in the conference, and it could easily be the best.

The only real weakness of the Arkansas offense comes up front at the point of attack, where the Hogs offensive line is seemingly still a relic of the Houston Nutt era. All five starters committed to Nutt, and not surprisingly they are generally the big, physical mashers that Nutt loved so much in his run-heavy offense. The "smallest" player on the line comes in at around 6'5 and 305 pounds, and truthfully that fact is probably doing the Hogs few favors. This line is, on the whole, a fish out of water. They are more physically built to pave the way for a run-heavy offense, but with the coaching turnover they are now being asked to pass protect against highly athletic pass rushers in a pass-happy offense. On a fundamental level it's effectively a recipe for disaster, and not surprisingly it's a team that has struggled to a degree to protect the passer. Starting right tackle DeMarcus Love probably needs to be playing inside at guard, and starting left tackle Ray Dominguez was absolutely atrocious against Georgia with four penalties and one sack allowed. The left tackle of the future is Anthony Oden, the younger brother of basketball star Greg Oden. He'll be a star one day, and the Arkansas coaches have indicated he may play some this week against Alabama, but he's a true freshman and given Nick Saban's love for giving multiple fronts that confuse offensive linemen, I'm not sure exactly how eager the Arkansas coaching staff is to put him in front of 93,000 fans. Nevertheless, if Dominguez' struggles continue, the Hogs' hand may be forced.

And this is the weakness that the Alabama defense must successfully attack to limit the Arkansas offense. The performance of our defensive backfield has been solid but not spectacular to date -- the overall statistics look good, but safety play has been shaky and highly inconsistent, Kareem Jackson has been hit or miss, and Marquis Johnson had a key penalty against Virginia Tech -- but the simple truth of the matter is that if Ryan Mallett consistently has the time to throw, it's going to be a very long day for the Tide. The Arkansas wide receiver corps is too good and Ryan Mallett has too much arm strength and accuracy to expect to be able to consistently stop the Arkanas offense if we cannot get pressure on Mallett.

Fortunately for the Tide, however, you have to like how we match against the Arkansas offensive line. Marcel Dareus is having a breakout year, Lorenzo Washington is playing better than ever, and we've gotten great pressure from the linebacker corps with Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Eryk Anders. Moreover, on obvious passing downs, we have been moving the defensive ends inside in a four man front, and then putting Hightower and Anders at end. The results have been very good, to put it mildly, and we have consistently harassed passers all year long. Given the struggles Arkansas has had at the tackle positions, all signs point towards the Tide having some success getting to Mallett.

Even with that said, though, expect the Arkansas offense to have a reasonable amount of success against the Tide regardless. The running game has the potential to be a very good one -- you mix a bunch of big, strong offensive linemen with a group of highly talented tailbacks, and that is usually what you get -- and unless the Arkansas coaching staff is blowing smoke, they plan to use the rushing attack more prominently this weekend. It could have some success, and realistically no matter how well you can pressure Mallett, all of the outstanding components of the Arkansas passing game will guarantee that the Hogs hit more than a few plays in the passing game. These guys are going to score points, period.

Putting It All Together

All in all, I don't think there is much questioning the notion that Alabama is the better team here. We have more top-end talent, more quality depth, and probably a tad bit more experience as well. As long as Greg McElroy continues to play like he has to date, you have to imagine that Alabama will score more than their fair share of points tomorrow, and we should come away with the victory. Nevertheless, this game is far from a given, and it is likely to be a closely fought contest that goes into the fourth quarter. Arkansas is at worst a solid SEC team, and the difference between the two teams is far from gaping.

While it seems like we should be able to take full advantage of the Arkansas defense, truth be told we are probably going to have to do just that in order to win this game. Bamagrad has talked about these spread passing teams before, and I think he makes a good point: You can have a good defense and play well, but at the end of the day they are still good enough offensively to put up 24-28 points on the board. That could very well happen to us on Saturday, and if our special teams breakdowns continue, we could very easily be needing to score 31-35+ points in order to be able to get the victory. Arkansas is an improved team over last year, and they pulled off some pretty big upsets even then -- another victory over LSU, and came within a hair of knocking off Ole Miss as well. Rest assured, the Hogs will collect some more scalps this year, and it won't be a shock if they head back to Fayetteville with a crimson scalp in their possession.

Hope for the best.

The Virginia Tech Preview: Tide Offense v. Hokie Defense

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

Editor's Note: This will be the first installment in a four-piece series that will give an in-depth preview of the individual unit match-ups, as well as a special teams preview, and finally ending on Friday with a final wrap-up before the two teams face off on Saturday night.

The Virginia Tech Defense

Longtime Hokie DC Bud Foster

It goes without saying that the reputation of the "Lunch Pail Defense" precedes itself. Few programs in all of college football can boast a defense that has been as consistently successful as the Hokies have been over such a long period of time. No consultation of the statistical indexes is needed to understand that Virginia Tech is annually one of the best defensive units in the country, and the accomplishments of that group are highly impressive over the years. It's a unit that is generally near the top of the country in terms of scoring defense and total defense each and every year, consistently producing big plays, and with over 30 players drafted under the leadership of defensive coordinator Bud Foster, it's fair to say that there is a solid pipeline running straight from the Hokie defense to the NFL. Perhaps even more impressive, during Foster's era in Blacksburg, there has been at least one defensive player each and every year to earn All-American honors.

And, of course, the backbone of the Hokie defense is the aforementioned Bud Foster, the long time Tech defensive coordinator. It goes without saying that this is not an attempt to undermine Frank Beamer in any way, but nevertheless the Hokies have won a lot of games this decade, and it generally hasn't been a prolific offense leading them to victory. No, it's been an outstanding defense, and Foster is at the center of that. The 50-year old Murray State alum became defensive coordinator in 1995, at the ripe old age of 36, and has been an institution in Blacksburg ever since. The Broyles Award is given annually to the top assistant coach in the country, with Foster winning it in 2006, and no other assistant coach in the country has been chosen as a finalist as many times as he has. With such a long reputation of success, Foster could have easily had his pick of many good head coaching jobs, but he has opted to stay at Virginia Tech, and in all fairness he may very well be the best pure defensive coordinator in the country.

As a unit, the Hokies are a very aggressive defense, and Foster himself is very open and honest about wanting to dictate the flow of the game to the offense instead of vice versa. Underlying this aggressive defense is a unit that is built on speed, and one that not so secretly sacrifices size for speed. If you look at the Virginia Tech defensive line, it's a small unit. Many of their defensive ends are 250 pounds and under, and some of their interior players are 280 pounds and under. Likewise, the linebacker corps is light as well, with more than a few players barely hovering above the 200 pound limit. All told, the average size of the defensive line is around 267 pounds and the average size of the linebacker corps is around 220 pounds. By comparison, the Alabama defensive line averages around 300 pounds, and the linebackers almost 250. Tech defensive ends would be playing Jack linebacker at Alabama, and Rolando McClain, if he transferred to Virginia Tech, would instantly be a defensive end. To be sure, some of those disparities are a result in the different type of player needed for the 4-3 and the 3-4, but that alone doesn't explain the disparity in its entirety. Again, it's a unit that is built on speed, and one that openly sacrifices size for speed in the front seven.

The end result of a defense so heavily reliant on speed is about what you would expect. They are very quick, and running east and west on this unit isn't easy. Moreover, because of the overall speed -- and the general level of hustle consistently displayed by this group -- they tend to pursue well downfield, and the short-yardage quickness does allow them to make more than their fair share of tackles for loss in the running game. Moreover, it goes without saying that the speed first approach means that they are particularly a dangerous team rushing the quarterback off the edge. On the other hand, though, the lack of size does have it's drawbacks, particularly against big, powerful teams who -- when playing technically sound football up front -- can then generally have their way with the relatively light Hokies.

Also, before moving any further, a couple of position specific points should be addressed with regard to their impact on the Hokie defense, and these positions are, in Foster's parlance, the Whip linebacker, the rover, and the boundary corner. The Whip linebacker is an outside linebacker that functions in many ways like Nick Saban's Jack linebacker, playing to the wide side of the field -- the "field" side in Foster's terminology. The Whip linebacker generally plays zone coverage against the pass, but Foster loves to get creative with him and use him as an edge rusher against the passer, and also as a key player in run blitzes. The boundary corner plays to the short side of the field and is almost always locked in man coverage -- as opposed to the field corner, who plays the wide side and is more zone oriented -- and that position has a bit of a special place in Foster's lore because of the quality of players who have been given that designation. Finally, the rover is a hybrid safety player who is generally given a good bit of free reign, and one that has large responsibilities against both the pass and the run.

The Hokie Defense: A Critical Look

That glowing description of the Hokie defense notwithstanding, no defensive unit is perfect, and the Hokies are no different. Every defensive unit has flaws and weaknesses, and the same thing goes for this group as well. On the surface the Virginia Tech defense was outstanding last year, just looking at the major statistical categories, but if you dig deeper you begin to see that there is more than initially meets the eye.

In the passing game, the Hokies finished last year a solid 28th in the country in passing efficiency defense, but as is usually the case, things aren't necessarily so simple. The entire QB rating statistic has many detractors, shortcomings, and legitimate criticisms, and by analyzing the quality of pass defense based solely on opponent QB rating allows those statistical shortcomings to bleed through, and you can make a valid case that that happens when you look at the Hokies' defense.

Looking beyond the 28th placed ranking in passing efficiency defense, things quickly aren't so rosy. Truth be told, passing effiency defense isn't the best way to analyze the quality of a pass defense, the best way to do that is to look at yards per passing attempt (the favored pass defense statistic of many defensive gurus), and by that metric the Hokies really struggled a year ago, allowing roughly 7.14 yards per passing attempt. That number, in fact, put the Hokies at only 77th in the nation. And things were actually even much worse when you consider yards per completion. By that metric, the Hokies allowed 13.54 yards per completion, "good" for only 111th in the country out of 119 Division 1-A teams.

And much of the same criticism can be made of the Virginia Tech run defense as well. It, too, looks good based on the fact that the Hokies finished 14th in the country in rushing defense, but again it becomes a bit suspect the closer you look. The Hokies were a great pass rushing team a year ago (more on that later), and of course yardage and attempts lost as a result of sacks are, thanks to the methodology currently used, counted towards rushing statistics, even though they are really passes. For a great pass rushing team like that Hokies, that arbitrarily makes the run defense look more impressive than it really is. If you factor out the sacks, however, the Hokies 1735 yards on 416 carries, thus allowing about 4.1 yards per carry, not an overly impressive number. Moreover, the Hokies were great at stopping running games behind the line, posting 65 tackles for loss on running downs, and when you factor out those numbers, suddenly the average jumps to about 5.2 yards per carry. Bottom line, when the Hokies were not able to use their outstanding quickness to shoot the gaps and make a tackle in the backfield, their lack of size in the defensive front seven generally meant that their opponents were able to have their way in the running game.

Furthermore, just looking at the data, the Hokies were a team that was generally pretty good at limiting the run to a degree, but not a very good one at stopping the run outright. Even leaving the sack totals into the raw rushing statistics -- which again arbitrarily inflates the quality of their actual run defense -- eight teams rushed for over 100 yards against the Hokies last year, and only three times did the Hokies keep an opponent under 60 rushing yards (and one of those times came against Division 1-AA Furman). By comparison, only two teams cracked the 100 yard barrier against the Tide (one of which was national champion Florida), and Alabama held eight teams to 60 yards or fewer.

What all of this describes is a defense that was generally a good one, but one that became far too reliant on the big play. As mentioned earlier, the Hokies rushed the passer with great success by generating 35 sacks on only 343 passing attempts, giving them an adjusted sack rate of 10.3%, one of the highest in the country. Likewise, by racking up 65 tackles for loss on only 416 carries, Tech averaged a tackle for a loss on about 15.6% of all running downs, a number right on par with what the Alabama run defense posted. Furthermore, even more impressive, by snagging 20 interceptions on only 343 passing attempts, the Hokies were #1 in the country last year in interception rate at 5.81%. And, again, in a sense that's really the problem, they were far too reliant on those big plays. Yes they were generating sacks, tackles for loss, and interceptions in great numbers, but when they weren't doing that they were really struggling as a unit. When they didn't stop tailbacks behind the line, they were giving up well over five yards per pop. And when they weren't able to sack the quarterback or snag an interception, they were giving up over seven yards per passing attempt, and almost more yardage per completion than just about any other team in the country.

And that's the Virginia Tech defense in a nutshell. They are a fine coached unit that is very fast and that plays very hard. They can use their speed to kill you in more ways than one, and they have generally been successful. On the other hand, they are a unit that relies heavily on the big play, and if you as an offense can limit those big defensive plays, you suddenly find yourself facing a unit that you can have a good deal of success against.

The Alabama Offense

No one could have imagined the impact that Jim McElwain would have on the Alabama offense when he arrived a year ago from Fresno State. Most people liked what he had done in the valley, but no one expected that he could come in and immediately turn the Tide's offense into one of the most productive seen in Tuscaloosa in ages. But, of course, football is a constantly renewing game, and each team and each opponent is different from year-to-year, so you must constantly re-prove your merits, and in real terms that means that the accomplishments of 2008 for the Alabama offense are, for all intents and purposes, ancient history. Despite the return of the coaching staff, this is a new offensive unit, and many key faces are missing from a year ago. And considering that in the post-Bryant era, Alabama offenses have rarely been anything particularly special, it indeed is something that we will have to prove all over again in 2009.

Tide OC Jim McElwain

And, oddly enough, as much as we would probably like to think we know the generalities of McElwain and the method to his madness, there is in all actuality a high degree of uncertainty with regard to this offense. In all honesty, who are we? What are we going to do, and exactly how are we going to put points on the board? Can anyone here legitimately answer those questions? I, for one, cannot. And if you think you can, I suggest you head to Vegas.

I know who Bud Foster is, and I know what the Virginia Tech defense is about. Foster as a coordinator has a particular scheme in place that, while obviously changing in some regards, in many ways remains the same. In a sense he and his defense are known commodities. We know the type of player he is looking for, and we generally know how he likes to use particular players and skill sets. We know, generally speaking, what they need to do in order to be successful within their system, and we generally know how they are trying to go about playing winning football. But we know none of those things, really, when it comes to McElwain, aside from the absolute rudimentary basics.

Of course the easy answer -- and in all fairness, perhaps even the correct answer for 2009 -- is that we will try to replicate the basic strategy employed a year ago: physically dominate our opponents in the trenches in the running game, run it right down their throats, and only throw the football when and where we want to. But the problem with that is that there is no guarantee that the pre-requisites needed to be in place in order to do that will once again be there in 2009. Again, teams change, and many of the key faces that powered such an attack no longer reside in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, it's almost impossible to overstate how difficult it is to consistently execute such an attack, and how little we threw the football last year... we probably threw the football fewer times last year than any non-option-based SEC team has seen in ages. Thus, even though that's the easy answer, that's not necessarily to say the correct answer.

And making matters more intriguing is McElwain himself and the way the team has conducted itself thus far. With regard to McElwain, In 2007 at Fresno State, his offensive attack operated generally out of the shotgun and threw the football heavily. And back when he was offensive coordinator at Montana State in the mid-1990's, he threw the ball all over the place there too. One way or the other, as a former quarterback, it's hard to say that McElwain is, at his core, anything over than a guy who generally likes to air it out. And moreover, regarding the team thus far, in the A-Day game we operated heavily out of the shotgun and threw the football a great deal. Likewise, in the two scrimmages this Fall, we have relied heavily on the passing attack. Sure the passing game generally needs more work in scrimmages, and yes coaches like to use it more because it can help cut down on injuries a bit, but at some point you have to say that we are working so heavily on the passing game because we actually want to throw the football more.

Moreover, you can just get ready for it, sooner or later the Alabama offense is changing. Nick Saban, sitting on his proverbial throne at 100 Bryant Drive, wants a balanced attack, and it's only a matter of time before we get that balanced attack. And regardless of how productive last year's unit was, it was the antithesis of balanced, so that way of life won't last much longer (if any longer). Rest assured, we aren't recruiting elite pocket passer quarterbacks and high-end receivers galore just so we can suddenly channel our inner Woody Hayes come Saturday afternoon. Ultimately, this isn't even a question of debate, it's a question of the particular specifics of an evolutionary timeframe. We were a very run-heavy attack last year, but we will eventually be a balanced attack. Period. The only question is just how far we will be along our evolutionary path in 2009.

With Julio taking hand offs and talk of a secret Wildcat package, just what will the Tide offense look like this year?

And, again, it could mean that our offensive attack in 2009 could be different than what many expect. It may very well not be as run heavy as many think. The passing game may very well play a more enhanced role. Furthermore, going away from the conservative route, with end arounds to Maze, hand-offs to Julio, and talk of Trent Richardson running the Wildcat, we are seemingly looking to find unique ways within the offense in order to get the ball into the hands of the ever growing amount of high-end athletes that roam Tuscaloosa. And, consider the resurgence of Terry Grant. Most had him set to transfer after going incognito last year, but he returned and has done so well that he's now listed as the #2 tailback on the depth chart. Given his lack of power and size, Grant had no real place in last year's power-driven, smashmouth offense, so what does his resurgence tell us? Among other things, it indicates that the offense itself is changing... he wasn't the right type of physical player last year to get a spot, and if things were staying the same he should be riding the pine this year too, yet obviously he has found at least some role. All the more evidence to think that the scheme is changing.

Either way, things are changing in Tuscaloosa, we just don't know by how much just yet. So, who are we as an offense? I really cannot answer that.

The 'Bama Offense: A Critical Look

While we cannot say exactly what the Alabama offense will be like in 2009, what we can do is analyze the more specific components of the offense and find our their strengths and weaknesses. And with many starters returning from last year's offense, much of the individual components of the offense are fairly well known commodities coming into the season. Mark Ingram should be a slight upgrade over what he was a year ago... a power runner with good speed, and improved pass blocking abilities. Julio Jones, if healthy, will be almost a lock for the All-America teams. Mike Johnson should continue to be a high-end guard, and Drew Davis should continue to be an adequate right tackle. Colin Peek, despite having never played for the Tide, is an experienced player and should be an above average tight end if he can remain healthy. Players like Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, Brad Smelley, Marquis Maze, and others were all solid players a year ago, and they should continue to develop accordingly as their respective careers progress. Again, those players are relatively well known commodities at this point.

The real question is regarding the replacement players for those now gone from the 2008 team that looked to be replaced by new faces. Specifically, that means the loss of Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, and John Parker Wilson. And by this point, at least, we know who those replacements will be -- respectively, James Carpenter, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Greg McElroy -- so we can at least get a pretty good idea of exactly what to expect in regard to their performance.

LT James Carpenter

James Carpenter will probably play at a pretty high level at left tackle. He has the prototypical frame of a left tackle, good athleticism, considerable time in the system now, and he was a highly pursued recruit by two of the national powers looking for him to start immediately (Oklahoma being the other). He won't be Andre Smith, but he should be a pretty high quality left tackle in his own right, and likely the best we've had in a while not named Andre Smith. And, to a lesser extent, the same likely goes for William Vlachos at center. He's not a superstar, but his lack of height makes it almost impossible to get underneath him, and that combined with his strength makes him a great drive-blocker which is really what Saban apparently wants in a center in the first place. The real linchpin of it all, though, is Barrett Jones at right guard, and frankly any projection on him is going to be nothing more than an outright guess at this point.

It should be noted that the offensive line, in particular, remains a major concern moving forward into 2009. For all of our smashmouth abilities last year in the running game, we still really struggled to protect the passer. Our adjusted sack rate was near the bottom of the SEC again, and edge rushers still gave us lots of problems even with Andre Smith in the lineup. It's hard to see that really improving in 2009 with Smith in Cincinnati, and if the 2009 line loses the ability to consistently manhandle opposing defensive lines in the running game -- something that can easily go away with just one weak link in the line -- then the line as a whole may very well turn into a net liability for the Tide, dragging the entire offense down with it.

Greg McElroy, obviously, remains the x-factor that will have the biggest impact on the Tide. The hope, of course, is that McElroy turns out to be a great player who plays well regardless of what is surrounding him. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to be the case, and McElroy's performance, more than anything else, will likely be a function of the performance of the supporting cast surrounding him. That could be either good news or bad news, depending on how the rest of the team develops. Moreover, questions remain about McElroy's ability to not beat ourselves. John Parker Wilson did that last year -- though in all fairness, he had a bit of luck helping him on the way, as some opponents dropped a couple of relatively easy, potentially game-changing interceptions -- but only time will tell if McElroy can do that this year. It goes without saying that avoiding really bad plays is effectively the same as making really good plays.

Now, in all fairness, when you put it all together, it's hard to see this Alabama offense being a bad one, based on the individual components. We've got a potential All-American at wide receiver, a backfield loaded with star tailbacks, plenty of other high-end athletes for the skill positions, an above average tight end, and at least three or perhaps four good, quality offensive linemen. That's enough to score more than a few points, but again it becomes a question of degree determined by the performances of the new faces. You can take that core group, add good contributions from the newcomers, and get a very good offense. On the other hand, you can take that core group and add some struggles from the newcomers, and suddenly you find yourself with a very middling offense. That distinction alone can easily be the difference between an 11-1 team and an 8-4 team.

And that is really all that we can safely say about or offense moving into this year. Unlike the Foster defense, or the Alabama defense for that matter, the Alabama offense doesn't really fit nicely into a little predictive blurb. We do not know how good it will ultimately be, nor do we really know what form it will take.

What To Look For

So, all things considered, how do things look to play out on Saturday night?

First and foremost, Bud Foster has a bit of an old school mindset as a defensive coordinator, one that places a great emphasis on stopping the run. Mix that with his very open intent to dictate the flow of the game to the offense -- and not the other way around -- and I think you can fairly expect Foster to make his first order of business stopping the Alabama running game. In this game a year ago, Alabama controlled the line of scrimmage from the opening kick-off with a power running game. The Hokies, though, won't let us go easily into that good night for a second year in a row. Their defense is again a small one, built on speed at the expense of size, so if we can get a helmet on a helmet, that's a match-up we ought to win more often than not. Thus, expect Foster to really dial up the run blitzes early, especially with Whip linebacker Cody Grimm, and to also keep the rover near the line of scrimmage for help in run support.

And, of course, if the Hokies can have some success stopping the Alabama running game on early downs, thus getting the Tide into some obvious passing situations, you know Foster and company have to be dying to find out what Greg McElroy is made of. The Hokie defense itself is largely built to take advantage of teams facing obvious passing situations, but the pressure will be even more so for McElroy, especially with the new faces on the offensive line. As mentioned earlier, the Virginia Tech defense is one that has come to rely heavily on the big play, and you know that McElroy is an inexperienced quarterback to whom the Hokies will be doing everything in their power to force him into making a big, negative play.

On the other hand, this approach by Foster and the Virginia Tech defense does present more than a few opportunities for the Tide, particularly in the early stages of the game. If you can say that Virginia Tech will bring the rover near the line of scrimmage and that they will want to -- and perhaps have to -- dial up a high dosage of run blitzes on early downs in order to shut down the Alabama running game, that correspondingly opens up opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Receivers will then likely see a lot of man coverage with little safety help on the outside, and likewise a good tight end like Colin Peek can also have a big day under such circumstances, particularly with play action. Now, to be sure, it goes without saying that doing this will be a very high risk/ high reward strategy, and one that could just as easily backfire on the Tide. Running the ball straight into the line and playing it safe may very well be the smart thing to do -- yes it will likely result in some three and outs, but with the quality of our defense, trading punts isn't necessarily a bad thing -- and avoiding big, negative plays is arguably priority #1 for the Crimson Tide offense. Nevertheless, this preview would be incomplete if it was not mentioned that the possibility exists for the 'Bama coaching staff to try to make some big plays early in the passing game.

Man coverage down field with no safety help spells M-A-Z-E-T-D.

The Virginia Tech boundary corner position also needs to be kept in mind. As opposed to the "field" corner, which is generally stashed on the far side of field with more help from the safety -- and with the quarterback having to make longer throws in his direction -- the Tech boundary corner position spends most of his time in man coverage with little or no safety help, and the position always features the Hokies best corner. And the position has produced a long line of future NFL players, going back to DeAngelo Hall, Jimmy Williams, Brandon Flowers, and most recently Macho Harris. With Harris now in the NFL, that job will fall to senior Stephan Virgin in 2009, and he looks to continue the Hokies' history of high play at the position. Nevertheless, though, it does create the possibility for Alabama to make some plays in the passing game. I doubt Julio Jones will see man coverage -- they'll probably combo him most of the time, and despite general thinking to the contrary, the defense's #1 cornerback generally does not cover the offense's #1 wide receiver anywhere near as much as you would probably expect -- but some Alabama receiver will, and with the Tide's depth at the position, someone will be getting an opportunity to make some big plays in space.

At the end of the day, the biggest single match-up in this game, however, will be Alabama offensive line versus the Virginia Tech front seven, and whichever side wins the majority of those battles will probably have an edge when the clock reads 0:00. And in terms of protecting the passer, this really is not what the Tide wanted to see. Again, we struggled to protect the passer last year, and with three linemen gone, it's a major concern. And now we start the year against a team with great edge rushing abilities and a lot of small, speed pass rushers, so it's far from an ideal scenario. Defensive end Jason Worilds will be playing in the NFL next year, and at 6'2 and around 260 pounds, he's a dangerous player. He has the speed and quickness to beat people on the outside, but he uses his hands well and his fluid hip movement allows him to quickly change direction in route to the quarterback. Starting opposite Worilds is Nekos Brown, and while Brown isn't the caliber of player that Worilds is, by tipping the scales at only about 235 pounds, he's a player with great quickness who will be tough to handle off the edge, if nothing else. Likewise, the same thing goes for the back-ups, Chris Drager and Stephen Friday, both weighing in the 240 pound range. It all presents a daunting task for the Tide, and one that will definitely require very solid play in pass protection by backs and the tight ends.

Finding a way to neutralize the Whip linebacker will also be key. As mentioned earlier, Foster loves to use him as a rusher, and keeping him out of the backfield will be an absolute necessity for the Tide. Normally the Hokies have co-starters at the Whip position, but injuries have made that a bit more difficult. The two normal co-starters at the position are Cam Martin and Cody Grimm -- Grimm was second in the ACC last year in tackles for loss, trailing only teammate Jason Worilds -- but Martin has been slowed by a knee injury. He underwent knee surgery at the end of last season to, in part, repair a torn PCL, and that caused him to miss all of Spring practice. He is back this Fall, but the knee has not healed completely, and it has turned into a lingering issue that has caused him to miss some time this Fall as well. Bud Foster said last Friday, eight days ago, that, "Right now, Cam Martin is not full-speed. He’s getting better. Right now, if we can get 15 good plays out of him a game early, that would be great for us." So it looks like while Martin will play some, he won't play much, and he'll be far from 100% when he does. That will help the Tide in a sense that it gets redshirt freshman Jeron Gouveia-Winslow on the field a bit more -- a player Foster opently stated was still a year away where from he needed to be physically -- but even so you're still going to have to find a way to stop Grimm. As mentioned earlier, the Alabama backs and tight ends are going to have to pass block especially well to help neutralize a player like Grimm, and the Whip position in general.

That said, worries in the passing game notwithstanding, the opportunities are there aplenty in the running game if we can just get things opened up slightly. John Graves (6'3 and 277) and Cordarrow Thompson (6'1 and 301) start on the interior defensive line, and they are smaller players who Alabama's interior offensive line -- in particular Mike Johnson -- should do well against. Likewise, there are some other new faces in the Hokie linebacker corps in Barquell Rivers and Jake Johnson, and again you have to like how we match up there. Again, if we can consistently get a helmet on a helmet, we have an advantage in the running game, one that we shouldn't have any great deal of difficulty exploiting with the number of high-end tailbacks on the roster.

The real problem in the running game, however, will be getting to that point. At the risk of sounding repetitive, Foster will not just give us the run, we're going to have to earn it. He'll use numbers and run blitzes to shut us down on the ground. And in real terms that means Greg McElroy will eventually have to make some plays in the passing game to open things up -- and in so doing the Alabama offensive line will have to keep him upright and out from under duress. If McElroy can consistently hit some good gains in the passing game, without making the big negative plays, the Hokies will have to retreat and the Alabama offensive line will largely be able to have their way with the Hokie front seven, thus leading to a lot of production in the running game. On the other hand, if McElroy struggles to throw the football -- and, if worse, makes some big mistakes -- the Hokies will keep the Alabama running game in check with numbers and run blitzes, and it will be a long night in Atlanta for the Tide.

And that is the match-up in a nutshell. 'Bama should be able to run the ball well against the Hokies, but Foster will bring numbers and dial-up the run blitzes to stop it. That, mixed with his players quickness, will likely most the Tide's running game not very productive. To counter that, the Tide will have to make some plays in the passing game, and we'll have to get the job done keeping the Hokies furious pass rush at bay. If we do that the running game will come to life, and it will be a big night for the 'Bama offense, mixed with a very likely victory. On the other hand, if we struggle in the passing game, Tech will take away the run, and the Hokie faithful will be having plenty to cheer about with the Tide struggling to move the football all night long. And Alabama will be left having to hope that the Crimson Tide defense is every bit as good as it has been billed to be in order to salvage hopes of pulling out the victory.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

An Interview with Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples

kleph — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0000

SI says, "Kool Aid tastes great!"

The Sports Illustrated College Football Preview issue hit the stands this week and that vaunted publication decided to put Ole Miss on the cover as the team to watch this season. Just like everyone else. Not only is Alabama two slots behind the Rebels on the magazine's Top 20 list, but they pick Ole Miss to win the SEC West and face Florida in the SEC Championship on Dec. 5.

As soon as I got wind of this I said there's somebody got some 'splainin to do. I picked up the phone and started screaming at every mid-level panjandrum in the American Management Association Building in New York I could reach until I found out who the bastard was responsible for this outrage!

Well... not exactly. What actually happened was their PR people sent us an e-mail out of the blue asking if we'd like to talk to the SI SEC writer to promote this issue of the magazine and we said, "sure."

So yesterday morning I gave Andy Staples a call and despite the fact he's on leave due to the recent birth of his son (and for that blessed occasion we extend our warmest congratulations to both he and his wife) he was more than willing to chat a bit and expand on the points he made about Alabama in the current issue of the magazine.

In addition, Andy took the time to ~~throw his SI colleagues under the bus~~ explain why Ole Miss is so popular in the polls, outline what he believes is the real balance of power in the SEC this season and detail how he thinks "The Process" is progressing in Tuscaloosa.

So, why do you hate Alabama so much?

What? I owe Alabama my life! My parents met in a class in Tuscaloosa. It was a math class and my mom had gotten an A on a test and my dad had gotten a D or an F and he looked over her shoulder and said "Can I study with you?" And that was how they met. I would not be here if it were not for the University of Alabama.

That’s pretty awesome.

My mom actually took a "Folk and Square Dancing" class with Kenny Stabler. Of course, from what she said, he wasn't in class very often.

Why is there all this Ole Miss love this pre-season?

Well, it’s got to be somebody. Actually if you are talking about the main rankings in the magazine, that’s a collective thing which is the result of a bunch of people on staff getting together to come up with the list. If you look at my first AP poll you’ll see those schools [in the SEC West] are actually a lot closer together. The fact is Ole Miss has a strong team. They lost Peria Jerry and Michael Oher, and that’s a lot to lose, but they are still bringing a lot of talent back this year.

And their schedule is really favorable particularly when compared to the other SEC schools … other than Florida who got the best draw of any SEC school I’ve seen in a year they are supposed to be good. Ole Miss does have to go to South Carolina and to Vanderbilt early but that’s about as tough as it gets before they get into the real meat of it. Potentially they could be meeting Alabama on Oct. 10 undefeated.

And part of it is novelty. It’s pretty unusual to have Ole Miss being seriously considered for a National Championship any year. When it’s LSU and Alabama, people are a lot more used to hearing about them.

Ole Miss has one of the premier QB's in the conference.

OK. What about Alabama? How much of our placement is due to what happened in January in the Sugar Bowl rather than what we are likely to put on the field next month?

I think people are looking at the Utah game and how the [offensive] line played and are thinking that’s how the line will play this year. And that’s just wrong. I was an offensive lineman myself and I can tell you, when you take out a guy that close to game time [Andre Smith's suspension] and you shuffle things around… there is not going to be any chemistry. Things are not going to go very well for you. Utah took advantage of that.

Now, even if you took those very same guys but after they have been through spring and fall practices, they would be a completely different unit. That line last year was so good. Antoine Caldwell, was such a leader, and Andre Smith was fantastic so with those guys gone, the big question in the minds of people is how will the line gel and work together? From what I’ve read, the line still remains in flux. So, yes, I think a lot of observers want to see that offensive line and how it comes together before bumping Alabama higher in the rankings.

How much of the uncertainty is due to previous years when we had substantially less depth to draw on when we lost such players?

I think there is that expectation that those players are not going to be there to fill in those positions whereas with Texas or USC you just expect there will be someone waiting to step in and perform at the same level. I think you will see that happen with Florida and Alabama in the next few years. This is where you should really start to see the effect of Nick Saban’s recruiting. Obviously you had some guys like Julio Jones and Don'ta Hightower and those guys who blossomed early. But the impact of those strong recruiting classes coming along as they are supposed to will start to be seen with this group this year.

Is there any way that Greg McElroy isn’t an upgrade from JPW?

Nobody knows. I’ve never seen a quarterback no more roundly criticized than Wilson but McElroy is an unknown quantity. From what I'm hearing, people are likely to be surprised by McElroy’s athleticism and ability to scramble when a play breaks down. Which is great for an offensive line that is trying to come together since it’s a little easier to protect a quarterback that can move around like that.

But nobody has seen how McElroy performs on the biggest stage. If this were USC or Texas, he’d be getting that benefit of the doubt. But because Alabama isn’t seen as having hit that stride in terms of depth the general perception is he’s got to prove himself. Obviously, he may answer every single question on Sept. 5 because, for an opening game it doesn’t get any bigger than what Alabama is playing.

So that makes the opening game with Virginia Tech that much more important?

But that could help as well. In Destin in May [at the annual SEC meetings], Nick Saban was discussing why he does certain things and from a recruiting aspect playing the feature game on opening night is big but, more than that even, a game like that to start the season dictates how your off season is going to go. That's what the team is striving for all of the off-season. All of those players know there is a BCS conference champion waiting to play them and they have to be ready for it. And I wonder… look at Florida, for example. They open against Charleston Southern. How do you get psyched up to face Charleston Southern?

The Rebels' schedule is remarkably favorable this season.

But Virginia Tech isn’t a conference game. Who is going to be our big test in the SEC?

You guys need to worry about LSU. I think LSU is going to be a lot better… a lot better. I think they have the potential, if they can put all the pieces together, to beat everybody. My post Spring top 25 I had them at No. 13 and now I’ve got them up to No. 9. I keep moving them up every time I talk to someone over there.

What has impressed you so much?

To start, they’ve got a pretty experienced offensive line. They have got the best returning back in the SEC with Charles Scott. Jordan Jefferson was a much better back at the end of the season than Jarrett Lee who was their downfall in a lot of games last year. Defensively they are going to be better as well. They’ve moved people around. They’ve got their defensive linemen this year that haven’t had a chance to really show what they can do.

Then they’ve got Chad Jones as their starting free safety which probably should have happened a year ago. Everyone keeps talking about Eric Berry as a Heisman Candidate but Jones is up there with him in terms of athletic ability. I love Eric Berry and the way he plays but Chad Jones could be that kind of guy at LSU.

They have got a lot of talent and guys that know how to put it together. Alabama fans should know that [Defensive Coordinator] John Chavis [formerly at Tennessee] can put a good defense together. Last year the book on these guys was they were very predictable and offenses knew exactly what they were going to do. Chavis’ whole MO is disguising where the pressure is going to come from, disguising the kind of coverage you are going to see.

So, how about the East? Is Florida the shoo-in for the SEC Championship that every seems to think they are?

One thing that is clear after last year is that everybody is beatable. There are no unbeatable teams anymore. An upper echelon SEC team can beat Florida, but it depends on the day. Most days, given the team they have right now, Florida will win those games. Sure, Florida probably has more talent than anyone else right now, at least more experienced talent, but that’s only part of the equation. Florida is likely going to face LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship and any of those three teams can beat them on a given day.

What about Georgia?

I think people are going to be stunned by Georgia this year. People don’t seem to appreciate the amount of injuries that squad suffered last year. They had an obscene number, something like 19 players, including a number of key players, for the season. Their second day of practice they lost their starting left tackle [Trinton Sturdivant] and their first game they lost a starting defensive tackle [Jeff Owens]. Nobody recovers from that kind of losses, I don’t care how deep you think your roster may be.

They are going to win ten games and [Georgia quarterback Joe] Cox is a lot like McElroy, he’s come from a great high school program then had to wait behind another guy for awhile so nobody knows what he can do yet. This really smacks of 2005 when people said they had lost all these great players and they were going to go into the tank and DJ Shockley comes in and leads them to an SEC Championship.

A host of starters are returning to Oxford this year.

So, basically, despite the popular perception of the pecking order, the SEC is pretty much a crap shoot this year?

Especially the West. Don’t forget there is a team out in Fayetteville, Arkansas that has the potential to beat anybody as well. So, it’s going to be crazy. It’s going to be a lot of fun but it’s going to be tough for a lot of people. You are going to see some SEC teams that came into the season with National Championship aspirations that lose two games. They might still have a chance at the conference title but they are going to be pretty much out of the conversation in terms of the BCS title.

Then what separates the "haves" and the "have nots" in the SEC?

Talent. I was there for Meyer’s first three seasons covering them for the Tampa Tribune and to look at them now compared to when they won that title in 2006… it’s not really a comparison. They have these true freshmen projected third stringers that could start for several other SEC teams. It’s just disgusting the level of talent they have got now. And Alabama seems to be doing the same kind of thing. It’s going to be very difficult for everybody else because it’s getting to the point that Florida, Alabama and LSU are the only teams that can pull this off and consistently stockpile talent to this degree.

What has impressed you most about Alabama’s recruiting?

That Alabama has done it quickly, perhaps more quickly than anybody thought they could. The way they came in and locked down the state was simply impressive. It was kind of a perfect situation with the 2008 recruiting class when you had one of the best years for talent that they’ve had in a long time in Alabama and then you had Nick Saban really hitting his stride as a recruiter after laying the groundwork with the year prior. When that happened they really let people know they were a force to be reckoned with and then this year they went and were able to get everyone important they needed to get in the state of Alabama and then went out of state for a couple of key players with elite talent they wanted.

How far away is Alabama being recognized for what they’ve achieved in terms of building depth?

If Alabama wins ten games this year, it will be assumed from now on that everyone that comes up to fill in slots on the roster are the same quality or even better. The perception is just not at that point yet. When you have a team where the third string guys are just as keen on getting playing time… that’s how you build what USC has now, what Texas has now. Florida, I think, is finally getting there.

What‘s the most immediate benefit of this largesse?

People forget that what [the new recruits] do on the practice field is way more important for the team than what they may contribute directly in a game situation. When a player comes on board that could conceivably start in a given position, then even the most established player ahead of them in the roster has to go "Whoo, I better work a little bit harder."

And there are too many questions concerning Alabama's offense.

Coach Saban has said the key to being a successful program is to "become a nightmare for your opponent." So what monster would you say this year's Alabama team is most like?

I just saw a History Channel documentary on the Twelve Labors of Hercules and so the Hydra is what comes to mind. If you cut one of the heads off, two more will grow back. And that’s a lot like Alabama’s defense. They have a lot of ways to really get at you. With that defense… it’s going to be awful hard to score on them.

How so?

First of all, thanks to Terrence Cody - and Brandon Deaderick, as well - it’s really hard to run up the middle. And that right there is the basic component of most people’s offense. And when someone tries go to the outside they’ve got Don'ta Hightower is sitting there. And so then if they try to go deep, Javier Arenas is out there waiting. That’s tough.

What is the solution?

There really is not a lot you can do so at some point you simply have to try and physically overpower them up front. And Florida did that at the SEC Championship last year, but there just aren’t many teams that can pull it off. That’s why LSU is going to be a really fun matchup to watch because LSU may have the horses to make it work. But right now we really don’t know. The big advantage of the Utah game is they probably learned their lesson. It’s not likely someone is going to get the chance to jump out in front of them again like that this season.

RBR would like to thank Andy for the interview although we must chastise his parents for having the good sense to attend the University of Alabama and then ruin it by letting their son go to the University of Florida.

A Few Early Fall Observations

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:13:14 -0000

Photo Credit: Dusty Compton / Tuscaloosa News

As any long-time reader of RBR knows, none of us here claim (or have ever claimed) any legitimate amount of "inside" information. We do not have a best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend who heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. That is not who we are, nor is that what we pretend to be. Here are RBR, our football-related specialty is really commentary and analysis, and we leave the reporting to the professionals. However, that fact alone creates a legitimate problem with regard to reporting on the Tide's practice sessions simply because no one is actually allowed to watch practice, so it goes without saying that it can often be difficult to separate the truth from the fiction and discern exactly what is going on. So, the best we can really do with this is to compile all of the information possible from all of what we would consider credible sources, and do our best to piece things together from there.

With that in mind, to the best of my analytical abilities, here are a few early fall observations:

The off-season strength and conditioning program is clearly a success, and that can be confirmed via both photographic evidence and direct player quotes. The team as a whole is very impressive physically, and progress is being made in the right direction for all those that need to make progress. Those who needed to drop weight have, and those that needed to bulk up have added the mass as needed. For example, Jerrell Harris has added nearly 30 pounds in the past year, and Chance Warmack has dropped nearly 30 pounds since his arrival eight months ago. Even the players who were in good physical condition to begin with, like Mark Ingram, have noticeably improved. Rodney Orr went on the record last week saying that this was the most physically impressive freshman class he had ever seen. I'll go one higher... this is the most physically impressive Alabama team I have seen. Period. If Scott Cochran is not your favorite assistant coach, he ought to be.
Roy Upchurch has successfully recovered from his off-season surgery, and looks to be 100%. However, the notion that he is going to be "the" man at tailback are probably overstating his case. Mark Ingram beat him out for the back-up job last year, and all indications I have read lead me to believe that Ingram is clearly the number one back in the rotation right now. Ingram likely represents our best runner in between the tackles, and with his improvement in pass protection, he figures to be on the field much more often than a year ago. This is not, of course, to say that Upchurch does not have a role, because clearly he does. He is a highly talented player in his own right that can offer some things that Ingram cannot, he will play a lot of meaningful snaps in 2009 as long as he stays healthy, and he will likely be used in a variety of different ways as well. However, with that said, it seems clear right now that the starting tailback job is Ingram's to lose, and not Upchurch's.
Speaking of the tailback position, both Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy have impressed observers with their raw size and ability, and Coach Saban has also explicitly stated that they were doing well. And in fact, some people actually like Lacy a bit better than Richardson at this point. Gentry Estes of the Mobile Press-Register, in a chat session two days ago, said he thought Lacy was the most impressive freshman on offense to date. One way or the other, these two have looked very good, and they are going to see a good bit of meaningful playing time in 2009. If anything, the real issue that we are fighting here is the same one that Auburn fought back in 2003... too many talented tailbacks, only one football.
A year ago most expected that Alonzo Lawrence, the star cornerback signee from the 2008 class, would quickly snag a starting job as soon as he stepped foot on campus, only to have Lawrence became scout team fodder almost the second he arrived in Tuscaloosa. The star cornerback signee from the 2009 class, however, has had no such setbacks. Dre Kirkpatrick is a constant in the discussion for most impressive true freshman to date, and many dub him as the most impressive true freshman we have. Furthermore, we do know as a matter of fact from the open practice at Fan Day that Kirkpatrick is getting a lot of reps with the first team defense when we go to multiple defensive back sets, and specifically at one point we were even moving Arenas inside to the star position and putting Kirkpatrick on the outside. Simply put, he has blown everyone away with his sheer size, athleticism, and raw cover skills, and it seems clear at this point that he is going to play a lot as a true freshman in a lot of meaningful situations. At the very least, Kirkpatrick thus far has done all that he can do to justify the recruiting hype... this is not Alonzo Lawrence: Part Two.
Here's a real head-scratcher to me... today in his press conference Coach Saban said the following regarding Star Jackson: [He has been] making a lot of athletic plays. He's a guy that ought to have some kind of role for us on this team, this year.'' The emphasis is obviously mine, and with good reason. When Coach Saban is referring to him making athletic plays and then discussing how he should have a role for us this year, I highly doubt he's referring to him being a back-up quarterback. But what else? I've said before that I don't think Jackson is a good enough of a raw athlete to star at another position, and truth be told we have more experienced guys there anyway, so that seems unlikely. This is all complete speculation on my part, but I'll throw this out there... Is it possible that we see Jackson used some this year in some sort of a Wildcat-like package?
Michael Bowman has been the most physically impressive of the freshman wide receivers to date, and he probably has the best chance of any freshman wide receiver to earn early playing time. However, with that said, things are not going to come easy. Most reports have the top four receivers at the moment being Julio Jones, Marquis Maze, Mike McCoy, and Darius Hanks. Those who follow Alabama closely will be intrigued by the name of Darius Hanks. He was a star on the scout team as a true freshman and wowed everyone through Fall camp last year, only to fall of the face of the Earth after the Clemson game. Can he stick in the rotation this year?
William Vlachos is our center at this point, and to the best of my observations, it's not even a particularly close race. He had the slight edge coming out of Spring practice, and he seems to have locked down the job as well as anyone reasonably could. According to various reports from Fan Day, as well as some direct player quotes, Vlachos has held his own about as well as anyone can against Terrence Cody, and that's about as good of an endorsement as you can give for his abilities. And to be honest, almost nothing has been said anywhere of David Ross, who battled Vlachos for the starting center job this Spring, and that is probably not good news for the Homewood product.
D.J. Fluker has bounced around a bit, spending time at both left tackle and right tackle. He has generally been grouped with the third team to date, though he has seen some time on up the ladder as well. In fact, on occasion, we have put him at right tackle with the first team unit, and when we did so Drew Davis would move inside to right guard. One way or the other, the scenario I discussed earlier in the year about Fluker possibly starting out guard does not seem to be a legitimate possibility at this point. He looks to be at tackle one way or the other, and we will have to see how he progresses throughout the rest of Fall camp. He hasn't came in and taken the world by storm like Andre Smith did three years, but given the quality of competition that surrounds him now (compared to what Smith had to fight through) no one expected him to either.
Yours truly has some explaining to do about the right guard spot, but interestingly enough through most of Fall camp to date, Alfred McCullough has gotten the majority of the reps with the first-team unit. McCullough spent the spring backing up at tackle, but the staff has had him playing inside thus far, and he has impressed. Barrett Jones ran with the first team in the early morning practice on Tuesday, but aside from that temporary alignment, McCullough has been the man to date at right guard. For now, neither Boswell, Motley, Warmack, or Ross seemingly have anything on McCullough, and a lot of people think it is his job to lose at right guard. To date, the "typical" grouping of the first team offensive line has been, from left to right, James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Alfred McCullough, and Drew Davis. For what its worth, Saban did say yesterday that he had a "pretty good idea" of who four of the starters would be, and that probably only leaves the right guard position in play right now.

Photo Credit: Dusty Compton / Tuscaloosa News
Brad Smelley bulks up for more playing time.

Brad Smelley went on the record saying that he has bulked up to about 230 pounds in the off-season S&C program, which is probably fifteen or twenty pounds heavier than he was a year ago. And, for what it's worth, Smelley seems to be edging out Preston Dial for the best receiving threat from the position, but nevertheless we still need to find a blocker who can do many of the things that Travis McCall did last year. Keep your eye on two men: Michael Williams and Undra Billingsley. Also, don't sleep on true freshman Mike Marrow, who is quite a physically impressive player in his own right.
When Drew Davis spoke to the media on Monday, one of the players he specifically called out as impressing him was Darrington Sentimore. I've long since raved about Sentimore's raw abilities, and it seems like he reported in good physical condition as well. I know we are very deep at defensive end, but you have to imagine that Sentimore will find the field sometime this year. It's really rare to see sixth-year seniors calling out true freshman as impressive and then watch that same guy end up with a redshirt.
It seems like one of the themes of Fall practice is what I would like to call "Dont'a Hightower Watch." Everyone who is anyone is more than blown away by Hightower, and it seems like every single day there is yet another report of something amazing he did in practice that particular day. Now, it is a fact that he has spent some time working the Jack linebacker position, but nevertheless the bulk of his time has come working inside at the Will position. I do think that Hightower will largely play the Will position this Fall, and that he will play the Jack position situationally on obvious passing downs. My question is this... if all of this we are hearing is even remotely true, is Dont'a Hightower the best football player we have on the entire team not named Julio Jones? I'd say it's a distinct possibility.
Largely the reason I say that Hightower will mainly stay inside is the development of Eryk Anders. He came out of nowhere last year to be the Tide's best edge rusher, and if all accounts are to be believed, he has been even more impressive this Fall. At the very least, he's making a legitimate run at being the starting Jack linebacker, and he's going to play a lot in 2009.
The real issue with linebacker, though, isn't so much in finding the best player, but having to deal with a lot of guys legitimately being able to play and only having so much playing time to dole out. Jerrell Harris is really taking his game to the next level, and Chris Jordan has received praise for his play at inside linebacker. Courtney Upshaw is progressing immensely at Jack linebacker, Eryk Anders is playing better than ever, and that is to say nothing of Rolando McClain or Dont'a Hightower. Likewise, both Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick have been impressive to date, and Jonathon Atchison arrived much more physically ready to compete at this stage of his career than anyone expected. And that's not to say anything of Ed Stinson or Chavis Williams. Again, at this point with the linebacker position, it is really more of an issue of having a lot of guys who can legitimately get the job done, and nowhere near enough playing time to dole out to everyone. Much like the situation at tailback, it's an embarrassment of riches, really.
The best news to date? No injuries, and I mean none whatsoever. Nobody wearing a black no-contact jersey, nobody riding the exercise bikes, nobody watching in street clothes, nothing. To be sure, injuries will eventually come as certain as the morning sun rising, but as of right now things are off to a good start on the injury front, and we can only hope that it will continue to go that way.

That's all for now, but obviously more will be coming up in the following days. It should be pointed out that we are still very early in the game -- pads went on for the first time Monday, and today was the first of two-a-days -- and in particular it's very early for the incoming freshmen. Keep in mind that at this point last year, Julio Jones was just beginning to start working his way up from the bottom of the non-existent depth chart. Bottom line, everything is very volatile at the moment, and things are subject to change. The first scrimmage of Fall camp is scheduled for this Saturday, and by the end of that we should have a much better feel on how things are progressing.

SEC 2009 // Alabama Aims for Something Special

Year2 — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:00:09 -0000

ELEVENTH IN A SERIES :: The 2008 Alabama Review

There were a few people who saw upside surprise in Alabama's 2008 season before it started. Nick Saban, along with many of the game's other top coaches right now, had a history of having a pop in his second year at a school. Plus, the team's composition appeared to be perfect for how Saban likes to have his teams, even if the players involved had yet to accomplish a whole lot.

I would guess it's unlikely though that even the most optimistic Bama fans would have predicted a 12-0 regular season, except for the steadfast loons who believe the Tide will go undefeated every year. It had all the makings of a classic Alabama team: a tough, run first offense with an adequate quarterback and a nasty defense. It was enough to have some looking back to 1992.

It appeared as though things were all going according to ~~plan~~ the Process, that is until a dramatic fourth quarter collapse against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators outscored the Tide 14-0 and out gained it 140 yards to 1. Then in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama sleepwalked its way into a 21-0 hole in the first quarter against Utah. Two quarters, two opponents, five touchdowns allowed. Needless to say, that's not how anyone wants to end a season.

So Saban has two years at Alamaba under his belt now, and in the second he won 12 games. Given the program's recent history, that's great. In the entire history of the Bama football though, how much is it really worth? Every head coach who has roamed the sidelines in Tuscaloosa since Bear Bryant has won 10 or more games. They all hit that mark: the NFL import, the deserter, the champion, the idiot, the Hedley Lamarr clone, the famous son, and now, the Process. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that the vast majority of Alabama fans consider last season to be anything but a resounding success. It just means long term, Saban will need to do more.

Head coaches at Alabama are ultimately judged on championships, and with what looks like an even nastier defense than last year's, Saban will be in position to contend for another. Teams that have to replace household names are always scrutinized more closely, and at least within the SEC, everyone knew the names of the now-departed John Parker Wilson, Glen Coffee, and Andre Smith. That has caused many people to doubt Bama's chances based on a perceived offensive deficiency, but this team was never going to lean on that offense for salvation anyway.

The question I have is whether Alabama's near-inevitable swoon year will be this year or next. The majority of teams that have a new coach who comes in and immediately experiences success see a relative down year in either the third or fourth season. It's a natural gap that forms between the previous coaches' best players and the new coaches' good recruiting classes. Urban Meyer won a national title in his second year at Florida but won just nine games the next. Jim Tressel won a national title in his second year at Ohio State and eleven games in his third, but OSU won just eight games in his fourth. Les Miles won a national title in his third at LSU but won only eight games in his fourth too. Saban himself at LSU won a conference title his second year but won only eight games the next.

I would be inclined to pick this year as the down year if it wasn't for how good the defense should be. In fact, if that defensive strength might help Alabama avoid the swoon year entirely as second-year wonders Bob Stoops and Pete Carroll did. A lot hinges on new quarterback Greg McElroy not making mistakes (hint: when in doubt, throw it to Julio) and someone from the stable of running backs emerging whether a vet, like Mark Ingram, or a newcomer, like Trent Richardson. If that can happen and the line can gel, then the 2009 Crimson Tide could be roughly indistinguishable from the 2008 rendition.

I am a bit torn on this team though. I could see it bulldozing its way to another 12-0 regular season with lots of defense, running, grit, and angry pointing by the head coach. I could also just as easily see some of last year's swing games swinging the other way en route to a nine win season or so.

As the head man himself would say, the process is more important than the results. Regardless of whether Alabama gets hit with the swoon year or not, it's safe to say a winning process has been implemented for the long term for the first time in Tuscaloosa since the Gene Stallings era. Now, it's time for something special. It's not just that no coach has ever won a national title at two different schools.

It's just that it takes one to stand out from the crowd at Alabama.

Previous Previews: Mississippi State, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss.

Saban at War: Alabama's Appearance at SEC Media Days

cocknfire — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:31:34 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

'Bring it on.'

Browse more photos »

Give Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban one thing -- he likes to use strong metaphors. Very strong metaphors. Consider this 2007 gem about Alabama's loss to Louisiana-Monroe, which forced an Alabama football spokesman to clarify that Saban did not view football games and terrorist attacks as events of equal value.

"Changes in history usually occur after some kind of catastrophic event," Saban said. "It may be 9/11, which sort of changed the spirit of America relative to catastrophic events. Pearl Harbor kind of got us ready for World War II, and that was a catastrophic event."

But Saban might very well have outdone himself at SEC Media Days when talking about the perceived snub of Tim Tebow, who fell one vote short of being a unanimous selection to the coaches' All-SEC first-team offense.

"But I also think everybody should have the right to vote for whoever they want, and I don't think they should be criticized for that," he said. "It's what a lot of people have fought for in this country for a long time."

It is unclear whether Saban was thinking about the boys who stormed Normandy in 1945 or the efforts of Martin Luther King Jr. and the Civil Rights Movement. Somehow, I don't remember the Dream including the right to vote for the All-SEC quarterback of one's choice.

Saban, though, was in a mood Thursday to defend the defenseless -- or at least those indifferent or unable to defend themselves. The former head coach of the Miami Dolphins also pleaded with those lobbing grenades at NFL scouts, coaches and executives who are unenthusiastic about Tebow's future in the League.

"I think he will be a winner in the NFL," Saban said. "But I think everybody needs to understand that the NFL struggles to evaluate people who don't do in college what they look for guys to do in the pros. And I don't think they should be criticized for that. It's a difficult evaluation when you play a little different kind of offense."

And he defended himself from charges by mgoblog's Brian Cook (Warning: Some fans might have strong language and other content objections to link), among others, that Saban has stocked his talent cupboard by oversigning good players and then resorting to pro-style "cuts" to trim his roster to the requisite overall total of 85.

"We have a demanding program. ... We have a personal development aspect to our program that there's principles and values in the organization relative to developing a successful philosophy, creating the right kind of habits, thoughts, habits and priorities that are going to help you make good decisions -- whether it's the Pacific Institute coming in, whether it's a peer intervention program that addresses behavorial issues, drugs, alcohol, gambling, spiritual development, how to treat the opposite sex, macho man stuff, running your mouth, getting in fights.

"Most of the stuff you read about players having issues with come in some of those categories from that personal standpoint," Saban said.

So, if those players hadn't been quite so macho, they might still be in Tuscaloosa. (The fact that this would require other players to have left the team is oddly not addressed.)

Not all of Saban's fire defended himself or others. Notable was his criticism of Andre Smith, whose absence from the Sugar Bowl likely helped Utah win the game.

"You know, we don't have one individual on our team that can make our team great," he said. "But we do have one individual who could destroy the team chemistry, destroy all these things that we're talking about by being a blinking light and making bad choices and decisions about what they do. We had an example of that last year, even in our bowl game. So you saw what kind of team we had for 13 weeks, and then what kind of team we have for the 14th game that was played."

Ouch. Maybe Smith should have voted for Jevan Snead.