SB Nation - Nick Walker

Halfway Home: A Midseason Look at the SEC

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:00:54 -0000

With six weeks of the 2009 college football season now behind us, we can finally start to get a good idea on exactly what everyone is made of around the SEC. With that in mind, a few thoughts on some SEC teams:

Alabama Crimson Tide

I expected Alabama to be good this year, as did most others, but honestly I believe we've exceeded expectations in the first half, and we've done so in the face of some bad injury / suspension luck. Dont'a Hightower and Damien Square are gone for the year with knee injuries, and Jerrell Harris has yet to play thanks to an NCAA suspension. Moreover, we're a beat-up squad right now. Julio Jones isn't healthy, nor is Roy Upchurch, and Terrence Cody was limited to only about fifteen snaps against Ole Miss with some sort of leg muscle issue. Cory Reamer, in fact, left part of his ear in Oxford. And that's, of course, not to say anything of Brandon Deaderick, who was, you know, shot at point-blank range. Twice.

Despite all of this, 'Bama has played extremely well to date. The defense is every bit as good as expected -- perhaps even better -- and even with his miniature meltdown in Oxford, Greg McElroy has played the quarterback position better than anyone in Tuscaloosa in ages. The offensive line isn't the same in the running game, but it is perhaps a bit better in pass protection than it was a year ago, Colin Peek has more than filled Nick Walker's shoes, and the wide receiver corps has really taken things to the next level. Our win over Virginia Tech at a neutral site is probably the most impressive win of any team in the country, and a 22-3 thumping of Ole Miss in Oxford is still a quality victory even with the Rebels' disappointing season in mind. We haven't won by fewer than ten points all season, and really haven't been given a real scare since the early fourth quarter against Virginia Tech.

At this point, the sky is the limit for the Tide. We've established ourselves as the front runner in the SEC West, and we might even be able to lose a game at this point and still make it to Atlanta. A worst-case scenario right now seems to be a 11-1 or 10-2 season where we make it to the SEC Championship Game, but whether or not we can beat Florida is another matter. I think the Tide has clearly showed the muscle to do it, but we have yet to play a complete game to date, and that is exactly what it will take to get past the Gators. This team is a legitimate national championship contender, but we're going to have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot -- think pre-snap penalties, kick coverage breakdowns, questionable play-calling, dropped touchdown passes, red zone inefficiencies, etc. -- in order to win the ultimate prize. Until we show that we can do that, I'm afraid, this 'Bama team will probably "just" end up another team that wins a ton of games and likely gets a BCS bowl berth, but one that ultimately has no hardware to show for it at day's end.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Despite a disappointing early season loss to Georgia, this Arkansas team actually looks pretty decent. The offense is a very good unit -- Michael Smith is still the most underrated player in the conference -- and the defense looks to be improving slightly. I know neither Texas A&M or Auburn are special teams by any stretch, but to thump those two by a combined 49 points is pretty impressive regardless of how you look at it. With a 4-2 record right now, Arkansas will return to a bowl game this year, and Bobby Petrino is clearly doing good things in Fayetteville.

The real problem with Arkansas is an ungodly tough schedule. It's bad enough to have to play on the road at Alabama, plus South Carolina (the second best team in the East). But to have the terrible luck to draw Georgia and Florida on the rotational conference schedule, not to mention a neutral site non-conference game against Texas A&M, plus games against LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss? Good grief... they are the anti-Auburn, the pure embodiment of scheduling hell. You could be a great team and only go 9-3 or 8-4 against this schedule, and the mere fact that Petrino and company are likely to get back to a bowl game, in and of itself, shows you the progress that is being made in Fayetteville.

And, really, keep your eye on this team moving down the stretch. They thumped both A&M and Auburn, and if their defense can prove to be even somewhat formidable, they will be extremely tough to beat. They beat LSU a year ago, and almost knocked off Ole Miss to boot. Expect them to claim at least one of those scalps again this year.

Auburn Tigers

The Gene Chizik era has gone as well as could have been reasonably expected, thanks in equal part to both the production of the Auburn offense and the lackluster performances to date by those on the Auburn schedule. Gus Malzahn has produced an offense as prolific as any Auburn fan could have dreamed off, and opposing defenses have clearly struggled with assignment breakdowns. Likewise, the Football Gods have been more than kind with the schedule. Louisiana Tech turned out to be a bad team even by WAC standards, Ball State completely nosedived, Mississippi State is as bad as expected, West Virginia's fifteen minutes of fame are clearly up, and Tennessee looks little, if any, better than a year ago. The Auburn defense has been the worst since Terry Bowden roamed the Plains, but the high-power offense and the weak schedule have driven Auburn to a surprising 5-1 start.

Moving forward, I really do not think this team is a particularly good one. I think they are a solid, 6-6 caliber team, but again the Football Gods continue to bring gifts with the schedule. It's always good to draw Kentucky, at home, on the SEC rotational schedule, but Auburn gets an added gift this weekend with the 'Cats starting quarterback being injured and unavailable. Beyond that, Furman is a guaranteed win, LSU continues to disappoint, Georgia is looking at its worst year in a decade, and Ole Miss has failed to live up to preseason expectations.

Again, I don't think this is a particular good team, and I could still see them crashing and burning if injuries show just how little quality depth this team has throughout the ranks. Nevertheless, though, it's a fairly decent team that can take advantage of a weak schedule thanks to their high-power offense, and they look to be in position to do just that. This is a team that will at least get seven wins, and nine wouldn't be a total shock.

Georgia Bulldogs

Get your popcorn ready, folks, this one is about to get highly entertaining. After getting blown out by Tennessee, Georgia sits at 3-3 on the season, and that is with games remaining against Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech. Even if these guys can avoid upsets against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, they are still probably going to struggle to get above 6-6. At these point, these guys are probably headed to the "new Shreveport," whatever that is, and that's if they don't get upset from here on out.

Either way, this is easily the worst team of the Richt era and it's likely to be the worst UGA team since Donnan took over in 1996. The defense is not very good, the running game is non-existent, Joe Cox is a glorified game manager, and they have no real threats at wide receiver sans A.J. Green. What else can you say? This is just not a good football team, period.

With all of that in mind, again, get your popcorn ready. This is Richt's ninth year in Athens, and he's entering uncharted territory. Few SEC coaches last this long, and the few that do are reeling and running out of steam at this point. Look at Fulmer at Tennessee, Tuberville at Auburn, and Nutt at Arkansas, just to name a few. And it certainly seems like Richt fits that mold as well. The fanbase is going nuts, they want lots of assistants fired, and many are openly questioning whether or not Richt can ever get the job done. This one will get interesting. That preseason #1 ranking feels like it was decades ago, doesn't it?

LSU Tigers

A 5-1 start and a top ten ranking to start the season, so things are all well in Baton Rouge, right? Not really. This team has zero quality wins to date, and frankly they are just fortunate to not be 3-3 with losses to Mississippi State and Georgia. This team will beat Tulane, and will probably beat Auburn, so they are likely to go into Tuscaloosa with a 7-1 record and a top ten ranking, but things just aren't right with this team, and I really don't know what's wrong.

LSU obviously has an ungodly amount of talent on hand, but it's not really working. Jordan Jefferson may not be Mr. Pick Six, but he cannot throw the football down the field, and the passing game is nothing special with him in. The offensive line is struggling up front, and without a line blowing defenses out of the water, suddenly guys like Charles Scott look pretty average. The defense looks pretty good, but who really knows about them? They have played only one good offense to date (Florida), and while only allowing 13 points looks nice on paper, realistically Tebow was not playing anywhere near his usual level, and the Florida offense was more conservative than Roy Moore.

Moreover, with all of the talk of the 2007 Florida game recently, it should be pointed out that this team really hasn't played well since Jacob Hester converted those umpteen fourth down opportunities. Since that victory, national championship and all, LSU is a combined 9-8 in SEC play, and the wins have generally came in close games against bad teams. The combined record of those opponents in the nine wins is a mere 40-50, and six of those nine victories came by a touchdown or less, which includes three come-from-behind wins in the final two minutes, plus a goal line stand in the waning seconds. The other three victories came by an average of 13.6 points, and the combined conference record of those three opponents is a laughably low 2-17. And that is from a team that led the SEC, by a wide margin, in both 2007 and 2008 in fumble luck. Again, I don't care that they won a national championship in 2007, these guys haven't played good football in two years now.

I really don't know what to make of this team. Again, like I said, they'll probably go into Tuscaloosa 7-1 and near a top five ranking, but I don't know that they are really any good. They've got the raw talent to go off and play extremely well, but that's not a given, so who knows? I do think they averted complete disaster by squeaking out games against MSU and Georgia, but for a team with so much talent and an unstoppable recruiting juggernaut, it certainly does feel that they are just barely hanging on with a cupcake OOC schedule and a couple of lucky breaks in close games against bad teams, doesn't it?

Kentucky Wildcats

With three straight bowl victories in the bag, Rich Brooks looks like he could somehow take the 'Cats to the promised land a fourth time in 2009. To be sure, the 2-3 record to date is disappointing, but hardly shocking. With Alabama and Florida on the schedule early, at best they figured to be 3-2 at this point. They gave South Carolina a legitimate run for their money, and a win there would have almost guaranteed a return trip to the postseason, but alas it was not to be.

Nevertheless, Kentucky still has a solid, achievable route to a bowl game. Louisiana-Monroe and Eastern Kentucky should yield two easy wins, and then the 'Cats get the two worst teams in the SEC with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Even if the 'Cats slip up somewhere along those lines, they still have a few chances at some upsets. They've played well to date, and will be favored in four of their remaining seven games, and while they will be underdogs in the other three -- at Auburn, at Georgia, and Tennessee -- Kentucky will have a legitimate chance of winning each time out. I think the smart money is still on UK ending up 7-5 or 6-6 and making it back to the postseason yet again.

Ole Miss Rebels

Colonel Reb is pretty much as overrated as I expected them to be all along in terms of contending for the SEC West. The real question for this team, now, is where do they go from here? Given how they have played to date, this team could easily lose another three games unless they improve. On the other hand, they could rally like last year and still get a good bowl game. They cannot win the West for themselves, but they sure as hell can spoil any chance either LSU or Auburn has left. Truth be told, as of right now, 'Bama fans have few better friends than Ole Miss. If they can beat LSU in Oxford, that practically clinches 'Bama the SEC West regardless of what happens in the Alabama v. LSU game.

As a more general point, will Ole Miss ever win the SEC in our lifetime? Clearly this was their only shot for now... bringing in a solid, proven coach after a recruiting guru filled the roster with raw talent, but obviously it's not to be, and Nutt will never win it in Oxford. He couldn't do it in Fayetteville, and with the lack of recruiting success he is having at Ole Miss, his Rebels are moving in the wrong direction. It just isn't happening, folks.

The last time Ole Miss won the SEC was in 1963 -- 46 years ago -- days after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. My father was seven at the time, and I am currently moving closer to 30 than I am 20, and Ole Miss has never even came close to winning it in my lifetime. So, again, I ask, will we ever see Ole Miss win the SEC in our lifetime, or is this going to be like waiting on the Cubs to win the World Series?

Mississippi State Bulldogs

I've long gone on the record as being a fan of the Dan Mullen hire, and I think he has done pretty well in Starkville to date. The offense is coming along a lot quicker than I expected, and he almost pulled off a massive upset against LSU a couple of weeks back. True freshman Chad Bumphis has impressed at wide receiver, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Tyler Russell can do at quarterback in the future.

Of course, though, in the harsh light of reality, life is never easy for the lovable Bullies. With a loss to Houston, MSU is now probably looking at a 3-9 campaign, and that's if they can beat Middle Tennessee on the road in what many expect to be a pretty close game (Vegas has MSU as only a three point favorite). Mullen is effectively fighting the impossible fight in Starkville, and his efforts won't pay any short term dividends. I guess all you can say is that, at least, they beat Vandy and aren't the worst team in the conference, which is what most expected.

South Carolina Gamecocks

If I had to wager, I would say the Gamecocks are perhaps one of the toughest teams to judge right now. The opener against North Carolina State was ugly, and losing to Georgia at this point is likewise far from pretty. On the other hand, the win over Ole Miss was impressive -- and the game wasn't as close as the scoreboard indicated -- and the victory over a relatively decent Kentucky team was fairly impressive.

I actually think this has the pure potential to be the best team Spurrier has fielded in Columbia since his arrival, even though that may not be saying much. They do have a great defense, Garcia has clearly improved, and the offensive line looks to be the best it has been to date under the Ol' Ball Coach. I think that as of right now, there is very little doubt that these guys are probably the #2 team in the SEC East. On the other hand, though, Florida ought to thump these guys once again, and beating 'Bama would require a major upset. They are 5-1 at the moment, and will get to six wins against Vanderbilt, but with road games left against Arkansas and Tennessee, not to mention a date with Clemson, getting above eight wins still looks to be a difficult task.

Tennessee Volunteers

I've never seen anything like Lane Kiffin, for better or for worse. The constant verbal jabs in the media. The changing of pullovers at halftime. The "play to lose with respect, not win" strategy. The trying to go for two with defeat certain and time expired just to reduce the margin of defeat and bump up their Pythagorean Wins. He's a unique one, no doubt there.

That said, I see little reason to believe the Vols are much better this year than they were a year ago, and in fact they look to be pretty much the same team to me. The blowout win over Georgia was nice, but truthfully it was probably more to do with UGA's implosion than the "turning the corner" that so many UT fans would like to make it out to be. Even with that, this team is basically in the exact same boat they were last year... a 6-6 team that will make some laughable bowl game so long as they don't get upset late by a really bad team. They ended up 5-7 last year when Wyoming pulled off the shocker, and that is exactly what they are looking to avoid now. Either way, it's hard to see this team being anything more than nominally improved over its immediate predecessor, and their final record will reflect that.

Vanderbilt Commodores

I enjoyed last year's showing by Vandy as much as anyone, and Bobby Johnson has done a marvelous job in Nashville. At the end of the day, though, it's still Vandy, and it's showing. Losing to Mississippi State, at home, effectively guaranteed that the 'Dores would be the worst team in the SEC in 2009, and after losing on the road against lowly Army, Vandy fans will probably have to wait until 2010 to get another win. With six games remaining against Georgia, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee, it's hard to see the 'Dores getting another win. A 2-10 finish -- including an 0-8 conference record -- seems to be the likely result.

At least there will always be memories of the 2008 team, I suppose. No one ever said that life as a Vanderbilt football fan was easy.

A Closer Look at the Alabama Running Game

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Alabama running back Mark Ingram (22) looks for running room against Arkansas.

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In the preview for the Arkansas game, I expressed my concerns that we may have some trouble running the football against the Hogs. My reasoning was that we were a good bit smaller at the point of attack than we were a year ago, and that we had not yet been tested by a big, physical defensive front seven. And unfortunately, as Nico pointed out yesterday, my fears were confirmed. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson combined for 26 carries on the day, and only nine of them were successes. Aside from Richardson's epic touchdown run -- which in all fairness should have been a three-yard loss -- the Hogs completely shut down the Alabama rushing attack.

So, with that poor performance in mind, I want to look a bit closer at our running game. First and foremost, I want to specifically look at our personnel at the point of attack and see how they have changed in terms of size, and then I want to see if the lack of success in the running game was really because the Hogs were committing so many defenders in order to stop the run. From there, we'll try to make some sense of it all.

First and foremost, in terms of personnel, I have compared the numbers and we are indeed a good bit smaller than we were last year at the point of attack. When we ran the ball in 2008, we generally did so out of two tight end sets, so the seven players we generally had at the point of attack were Travis McCall, Andre Smith, Mike Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Drew Davis, and Nick Walker. Of course, though, of those seven players, only Mike Johnson and Drew Davis returned for the 2009 season, and the replacements for the five outgoing players are almost all smaller than their predecessors. Only Colin Peek is bigger than the player he replaced (Nick Walker), and he is only seven pounds heavier.

On the whole, if you look at the official weights listed on the 2008 and 2009 rosters, the seven players used at the point of attack this year in the running game is a full 59 pounds lighter than it was a year ago. And, frankly, there is reason to think that the current group is even smaller than that. It goes without saying that, of course, the official rosters can be misleading in terms of accurate height and weight measurements, and even if you assume that Andre Smith legitimately did play last year at 330 pounds and that Marlon Davis was only at 300 pounds -- neither of which many objective observers believe -- nevertheless Travis McCall and Antoine Caldwell, combined, weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 18 pounds over their listed weight, so if you factor that into consideration you are suddenly almost 80 pounds lighter at the point of attack than you were a year ago. At the very least, we are a good 60 pounds lighter this year at the point of attack, in all honesty we are probably more look 100 pounds lighter up front.

Watching the game film, it's hard to come a conclusion other than that our newly found lightness is hurting us in the running game. Simply put, we just don't have the ability to manhandle opponents at the point of attack like we did a year ago. We really aren't getting smacked around up front and allowing defenders to shoot into the backfield -- which is one reason why Ingram and Richardson's combined 26 carries, only two went for a loss -- but again we are not blowing opponents off the ball either. We are no longer just driving defensive linemen backwards, with linemen shooting out to the second level to pick off linebackers and safeties. Now we are, on a much more regular basis, fighting defensive fronts to a draw where no defender really shoots through, but where, by the same token, no real holes are created for our backs. There is more to that than just pure size, but in all fairness that does seem to be playing a pretty large role in it all.

So, what about the Arkansas defense?

I've noticed that much of the Internet chatter from 'Bama fans has been that we struggled to run the football against Arkansas because the Hogs were continuously stacking the box. But, of course, that's generally the standard excuse used when someone struggles to run the football, so I want to look closer to see if there is any validity to those claims. To that end, Sunday night I broke down the game footage and charted exactly how many defenders the Arkansas defense had in the box in each run by Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Those two, again, combined for 26 carries, and I charted 24 carries (two of Richardson's carries were, inexplicably, not included in the game video at the SEC Digital Network).

And what did I find?

Well, it's a tad bit complicated, actually. Arkansas did, in fact, stuff the box on several different occasions, and they weren't particularly shy about using eight (or more) defenders in the box in order to stop the run when they felt necessary. For example, watch the following two carries by Mark Ingram:

Now, with that said, however, to say that Arkansas consistently stopped the Alabama running by putting eight or more defenders in the box isn't entirely correct. In all actuality, Arkansas only had eight or more defenders in the box a grand total of eight times (i.e. only on one-third of all runs), and one of those carries is a bit misleading because it is the Mark Ingram touchdown run against the Hogs goal line defense. So, on the surface anyway, the notion that Arkansas stopped the Alabama rushing attack by consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders really isn't on point because on two-thirds of the carries Arkansas actually had seven or fewer defenders in the box.

But again, though, it's not necessarily so simple. The "base" defense for Arkansas while trying to stop the run was to have seven defenders in the box, but if you look closely at the game film, you can see that the safeties (and at times the corners) were clearly looking to play the run. They may have not been lined up close enough to be considered "in the box," but they were nevertheless clearly playing the run and were looking to crash the line and pounce on any running play from the snap of the football. For example, look closely at the Arkansas cornerback in the following clip of Ingram's run, and the Arkansas safety in the following clip of Trent Richardson's long touchdown run.

So, in other words, even though Arkansas defense may not have been consistently stacking the box with eight or more defenders in an attempt to stop the Alabama running game, they were nevertheless expending a huge amount of resources -- via the usage of at least seven defenders in the box, plus safeties and corners constantly looking in the backfield to play the run.

And, interestingly enough, on the 24 rushing attempts I charted, only three times did the Hogs have fewer than seven defenders in the box, and on all three of those runs, they had exactly six defenders in the box. Furthermore, even more interesting, when Arkansas did only put six defenders in the box, the Alabama running game was highly successful. Those three attempts resulted in approximately 25 yards on the ground. The three following videos are the three rushes that came with only six defenders in the box:

I did find those three runs very interesting, and perhaps very insightful. Obviously those three runs are a very small sample size and thus not very telling in their own right, but there mere fact that the Arkansas coaching staff chose to have only six defenders in the box a grand total of three times over the course of an entire game ought to tell you just how dangerous they feel the Alabama running game can be if you do not have strength in numbers. And, frankly, it doesn't take the second coming of Bear Bryant to figure out why... with backs as big, strong, physical, and athletic as Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, if you give them match-ups against six man fronts they are likely to run over, through, and around those defenses. Combined that not so groundbreaking insight with the high amount of success that we had in very limited opportunities against a defense with only six men in the box, and you can pretty safely conclude that you will consistently need seven or more defenders in the box to slow down our running game.

So, enough talk, exactly what are we to make of all this?

From the outset, I do think we are clearly weaker at the point of attack than we were a year ago. We cannot manhandle defensive fronts in the same way that we could a year ago, and we do struggle to run the football against overloaded fronts. On the other hand, though, we do have two great tailbacks, and even if the offensive line is no longer dominating, it's not an outright liability either. Combined, it means that we can still be a very potent threat in the running game if the opposing defense is not committing a lot of resources to stopping the run. We cannot run the ball almost at will regardless of what you do, like we could for much of last year, but we still require you to sacrifice a lot to stop our running game.

And, interestingly enough, even though we haven't had as much success running the football this year, this has nevertheless opened up things greatly in the passing game. With seven or more defenders consistently trying to stop the run, that means you consistently have four or fewer defenders playing the pass, and that combined with the reality that Julio Jones almost constantly draws double teams means that you can almost always get single coverage in space on one or more Alabama receiver every time we drop back to throw the football. Greg McElroy has been nothing short of incredible this year, and he hasn't posted his mind-boggling stat line by throwing against defenses really keying to stop the pass, that much is sure.

All in all, while the running game struggled greatly against Arkansas, the offense nevertheless continued to do extremely well as a whole, racking up over 400 yards of total offense and 35 points. Clearly, given how things have played out to date, there is a concern if a team gives us real trouble in limiting our passing game (most likely with an effective pass rush from the front four), but a team that has to devote an extraordinary amount of resources to limiting McElroy and company will most likely get gutted by Ingram and Richardson. Despite our struggles running the football against Arkansas, it is clear that any defense that spends much of its time in nickel and dime situations is going to heavy, painful doses of #22 and #3. From the looks of things to date, it seems that if you truly want to stop our running game, you're going to have to devote a large amount of resources to doing so, and doing just that may very well result in you effectively picking your poison as, in turn, Greg McElroy and our wide receiver corps simply beats up on you by throwing it over your head.

Week Four Preview: #3 Alabama vs Arkansas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:33 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer Alabama has faced this season.

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The 49-14 thumping that Alabama put on Arkansas last year in Fayetteville was easily the most lopsided game this series has seen in a decade. Last year's game, however, was also an anomaly as this series generally sees close, hard-fought contests, and none should expect another crimson landslide for a second year in a row.

There are two majors reasons for that: One, Arkansas looks to be a much better team this year than they were a year ago, and two, last year's game was much closer than the scoreboard indicated. Lopsided score notwithstanding, last year's game was actually played pretty evenly by the two teams, and the massive disparity on the scoreboard resulted from four major players all going Alabama's way. Those four plays were Glen Coffee's long touchdown run, Casey Dick's two interceptions (while driving) that were returned for touchdowns, and Terrence Cody's goal line stand to end the first half, and all of them directly resulted in Alabama touchdowns. Don't expect all of the big plays to go the Tide's way this year, and thus a much closer game this time around.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Arkansas Defense

On the surface, this seems like a lopsided match-up in the Tide's favor. The Alabama offense has been surprisingly effective to date -- 500+ yards of total offense in each of the first three games, and 127 total points -- and Greg McElroy has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The offensive line was a major question mark coming into the season, and while penalties have hurt them somewhat, they've still generally gotten the job done. Even with Julio Jones not even playing in more than half of the offensive snaps to date, nothing has really been able to slow down the Tide's offense. On the other hand, Arkansas' defense has been nothing short of abysmal to date. It was a very bad unit a year ago, and unfortunately for the Hog faithful it's one that has shown little or no improvement since.

So is it just a given that the Alabama offense is going to rack up points left and right against Arkansas? Perhaps, but let's not be so fast.

An objective look at Arkansas' defense yields a group that is very light on elite top-end talent and quality depth throughout the roster, but even so this unit may not be as hapless as many would make it seem. Clearly the Hogs had a disastrous performance last week against Georgia, but it is worth noting that performance came almost entirely without the presence of two of Arkansas' best defenders: middle linebacker Jerry Franklin and cornerback Rudell Crim. Franklin is the leader of the linebacker corps and he was ejected in the second quarter, and Crim is the team's best cornerback, but he went out with leg cramps early. And as if missing two of their best players wasn't a big enough issue in its own right, their replacements -- Terrell Williams and Greg Gatson -- were effectively outright disasters. Franklin will be back this week, however, and you can rest assured that the Arkansas medical staff will have Crim properly hydrated this time around, so their returns alone will go a long way towards improving this Arkansas defense.

The big concern for Alabama, most likely, comes in the running game. The offensive line is still a bit of an unknown commodity, and for all of the criticisms of the Arkansas defense, we really haven't been challenged in the way that this Hog front seven will challenge us. Given our proclivity towards using two-tight end sets, we practically lost five starters at the point of attack from a year ago (Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Travis McCall, and Nick Walker), and the replacements for those five starters simply don't have the size that their predecessors did. Combined we are about 100 pounds lighter at the point of attack than we were last year -- which is to say nothing of the fact that the combination of Preston Dial and Brad Smelley isn't near the blocker that Travis McCall was, size differential notwithstanding -- and that alone probably means that we cannot dominate teams in the trenches like we did a year ago.

And that is where Arkansas really challenges us. For all of the criticisms of their defense, this is a big, strong unit in the front seven, and that is something we really haven't seen this year. Virginia Tech openly traded size for speed, and both Florida International and North Texas were clearly outmatched physically. Arkansas, however, is a very different animal altogether. They average nearly 280 pounds in the front four, the linebacker corps averages around 235 pounds, and with Malcom Sheppard manning the defensive tackle position, they will be able to match our physical style of play. In all likelihood, if the Arkansas defense is to slow down the Alabama offense, this is likely how they will have to do it.

Unfortunately, however, the rest of the match-ups for the Hogs simply do not look good.

Looking at the rest of the defensive backfield, even with a healthy Rudell Crim, the secondary is still one of the worst in the conference. Starting opposite Crim is Ramon Broadway, but Broadway has made news for three things this year, none of which are good for the Hogs: Getting arrested for not showing up to traffic court, running his mouth before the Georgia game, and ultimately getting lit up by A.J. Green. He's a below average corner in coverage, and the same thing goes for the rest of the rotation at cornerback. Highly-touted true freshman Darius Winston -- a consensus five-star prospect -- has not been able to make any impact whatsoever. Likewise, the safety play from Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris has impressed no one to date.

Largely the same thing goes for the linebacker corps as well. Jerry Franklin is a fine player at middle linebacker, but while the starters surrounding him, Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton, have a good bit of size, neither of the two look to be particularly good players right now. The aforementioned Terrell Williams struggled greatly last weekend trying to fill in for Franklin, and while Jerico Nelson is a good player against the pass, at barely 200 pounds he struggles to get on the field on running downs, thus limiting his effectiveness.

The best match-up of all may very well come against the Arkansas defensive line in the passing game, which has struggled to rush the passer. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at defensive end, but neither are particularly adept pass rushers, and while Sheppard is more active than your typical interior player, there's only so much you can legitimately expect when you need your interior defensive linemen to generate the bulk of your pass rush. Despite Georgia being without its starting left tackle last week, Arkansas still couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever on Joe Cox, ultimately racking up only one sack and one hurry on approximately 30 passing attempts. Alabama may still have some issues protecting off the edge, but Greg McElroy ought to find himself with plenty of time to throw the football.

All in all, the Arkansas defense may be a bit better than it has been given credit for, and at any rate Alabama is still going to have to come out and execute successfully over the course of 60-70 plays to get the job done. Nevertheless, you still have to think that the Tide will put up more than their fair share of points this weekend. Arkansas may make running the football tough, but Arkansas' porous defensive backfield mixed with a lack of a consistent pass rush is likely a lethal combination in and of itself if Greg McElroy continues to play like he has so far this year.

Alabama Defense v. Arkansas Offense

While most expect the Alabama offense to have a big day against the struggling Arkansas defense, it's clear to everyone that it will be strength on strength when the Arkansas offense comes on the field. Both the Alabama defense and the Arkansas offense have the ability to be among the nationally elite with regard to their respective units, and making matters even more intriguing both units are led by two of the most advanced football minds in all of college football.

The Arkansas offense is a scary group, no two ways about it. Ryan Mallett has the arm strength of JaMarcus Russell, and he is easily the best pure pocket passer that Alabama has faced in years. The backfield is loaded with talented tailbacks that bring experience along with their unique mixes and matches of different physical builds. Tight end D.J. Williams is clearly the best in the conference, and back-up Ben Cleveland is a very valuable threat as a possession receiver. The wide receiver corps, too, is a good one from top to bottom. They don't have a true superstar ala Julio Jones, but they do have five or six high quality wide receivers who have good athleticism and who run good routes -- Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams are good enough to begin with, and Lucas Miller is returning this week from injury. That alone makes the Hogs very difficult to defend on the perimeter, even without saying anything with regard to Mallett. Bottom line, at the very least, this is the third-best offense in the conference, and it could easily be the best.

The only real weakness of the Arkansas offense comes up front at the point of attack, where the Hogs offensive line is seemingly still a relic of the Houston Nutt era. All five starters committed to Nutt, and not surprisingly they are generally the big, physical mashers that Nutt loved so much in his run-heavy offense. The "smallest" player on the line comes in at around 6'5 and 305 pounds, and truthfully that fact is probably doing the Hogs few favors. This line is, on the whole, a fish out of water. They are more physically built to pave the way for a run-heavy offense, but with the coaching turnover they are now being asked to pass protect against highly athletic pass rushers in a pass-happy offense. On a fundamental level it's effectively a recipe for disaster, and not surprisingly it's a team that has struggled to a degree to protect the passer. Starting right tackle DeMarcus Love probably needs to be playing inside at guard, and starting left tackle Ray Dominguez was absolutely atrocious against Georgia with four penalties and one sack allowed. The left tackle of the future is Anthony Oden, the younger brother of basketball star Greg Oden. He'll be a star one day, and the Arkansas coaches have indicated he may play some this week against Alabama, but he's a true freshman and given Nick Saban's love for giving multiple fronts that confuse offensive linemen, I'm not sure exactly how eager the Arkansas coaching staff is to put him in front of 93,000 fans. Nevertheless, if Dominguez' struggles continue, the Hogs' hand may be forced.

And this is the weakness that the Alabama defense must successfully attack to limit the Arkansas offense. The performance of our defensive backfield has been solid but not spectacular to date -- the overall statistics look good, but safety play has been shaky and highly inconsistent, Kareem Jackson has been hit or miss, and Marquis Johnson had a key penalty against Virginia Tech -- but the simple truth of the matter is that if Ryan Mallett consistently has the time to throw, it's going to be a very long day for the Tide. The Arkansas wide receiver corps is too good and Ryan Mallett has too much arm strength and accuracy to expect to be able to consistently stop the Arkanas offense if we cannot get pressure on Mallett.

Fortunately for the Tide, however, you have to like how we match against the Arkansas offensive line. Marcel Dareus is having a breakout year, Lorenzo Washington is playing better than ever, and we've gotten great pressure from the linebacker corps with Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Eryk Anders. Moreover, on obvious passing downs, we have been moving the defensive ends inside in a four man front, and then putting Hightower and Anders at end. The results have been very good, to put it mildly, and we have consistently harassed passers all year long. Given the struggles Arkansas has had at the tackle positions, all signs point towards the Tide having some success getting to Mallett.

Even with that said, though, expect the Arkansas offense to have a reasonable amount of success against the Tide regardless. The running game has the potential to be a very good one -- you mix a bunch of big, strong offensive linemen with a group of highly talented tailbacks, and that is usually what you get -- and unless the Arkansas coaching staff is blowing smoke, they plan to use the rushing attack more prominently this weekend. It could have some success, and realistically no matter how well you can pressure Mallett, all of the outstanding components of the Arkansas passing game will guarantee that the Hogs hit more than a few plays in the passing game. These guys are going to score points, period.

Putting It All Together

All in all, I don't think there is much questioning the notion that Alabama is the better team here. We have more top-end talent, more quality depth, and probably a tad bit more experience as well. As long as Greg McElroy continues to play like he has to date, you have to imagine that Alabama will score more than their fair share of points tomorrow, and we should come away with the victory. Nevertheless, this game is far from a given, and it is likely to be a closely fought contest that goes into the fourth quarter. Arkansas is at worst a solid SEC team, and the difference between the two teams is far from gaping.

While it seems like we should be able to take full advantage of the Arkansas defense, truth be told we are probably going to have to do just that in order to win this game. Bamagrad has talked about these spread passing teams before, and I think he makes a good point: You can have a good defense and play well, but at the end of the day they are still good enough offensively to put up 24-28 points on the board. That could very well happen to us on Saturday, and if our special teams breakdowns continue, we could very easily be needing to score 31-35+ points in order to be able to get the victory. Arkansas is an improved team over last year, and they pulled off some pretty big upsets even then -- another victory over LSU, and came within a hair of knocking off Ole Miss as well. Rest assured, the Hogs will collect some more scalps this year, and it won't be a shock if they head back to Fayetteville with a crimson scalp in their possession.

Hope for the best.

Five Players Alabama Can't Afford to Lose to Injury: #2 Julio Jones

Todd — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:00:11 -0000

Previously:

#5 - James Carpenter
#4 - Justin Woodall
#3 - ~~Orlando McCain~~ Rolando McClain

One of only ~~three~~ four unanimous First Team All-SEC picks after his true freshman season, Jones will once again be the primary target of both the Alabama passing attack and opposing defenses. As was previously discussed in the "How Did Julio Steal A.J. Green's Thunder" post, Julio Jones was, quite simply, the Crimson Tide passing game during the 2008 season, and considering his production in a run first offense with very few viable receiving threats surrounding him, it's no wonder he stood out to the coaches. As impossible as it may seem, he should have an even bigger role in this year's offense:

"We didn't move him around a lot (last year)," Saban said. "I think if we do move him around, it will be a little more difficult for people to double-team him, which is certainly a goal, and he's certainly ready to do that."

Moving him around, though, means other players are going to have to step up and become legitimate receiving threats, something that never really happened last season despite a lot of unrealized potential and practice field heroics.

Why is he so important?

Take away Julio's production last year and our top three leading receivers would have been Nick Walker (TE), Mike McCoy (WR) and Glen Coffee (RB), with only Walker coming close to Jones in # of receptions (32 to Julio's 58) and yards (324 to Julio's 924). Without him, there's not a lot to speak of among the remaining receivers, something that has plagued the staff ever since the end of last season. Talk of needing players to step up and be more consistent has been almost constant, and the need to find someone, anyone, to compliment Julio this season is a must if the Tide offense is going to have the sort of "explosive" element it needs to build on last year's success.

"I think for our receiver core to continue and develop, and have more explosive players, other than Julio Jones," Saban said, "showing consistency in making plays is going to have a lot to do with it."

What's the backup plan?

There's no real backup plan to replace Julio, but there are some options as far as mitigating the loss goes. Alabama's offense is more than likely going to be centered around the running game once again, and, if last year is any indication, our passing philosophy should continue somewhere along the lines of " throw when we want to, not because we have to." Thankfully that worked out pretty well for us last year, but last year we had a veteran offensive line, possibly the best overall line the Tide has fielded this century. This year we've got three new faces and are looking to find a workhorse back to fill Glenn Coffee's shoes, so there is a real possibility we may find ourselves in a position to "have" to throw from time to time. Should that be the case, there are at least four candidates that should get the lion's share of those needed throws; Marquis Maze, Mike McCoy, Colin Peek, and Darius Hanks. None of them is necessarily a suitable substitue, but each has something Julio brings to the table (Maze has the deep speed and ability to get open, McCoy is a big target that can make catches in traffic, Peek is physical over the middle, and Hanks....well, he's a practice field hero and is bound to do something eventually) and if the consistency finally shows up, simply spreading the ball around in Julio's absence should be enough to keep the offense moving.

Out of Curiosity: How DID Julio Jones steal the spotlight from A.J. Green?

Todd — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:00:29 -0000

Inspired by kleph's Stupid Question of the Day fanpost from Friday (and therefor AJC columnist Bill King's poor answer to said question), I thought it was time for another "Out of Curiosity" post to take a look at some of the reasons Julio Jones has received more attention and hype than A.J. Green despite both being VHT Five Star types that had stellar freshman seasons. King has two theories about it, one of which has merit and one of which could have merit if it wasn't wrapped in pure, homer paranoia, while I have five (hopefully solid) reasons of my own. Let's begin:

Julio was simply a higher profile recruit than Green. Though both were arguably as highly touted by Rivals (the #1 and #2 receivers, respectively, and both were top ten overall recruits), Green committed to Georgia in October of '06 while Julio waited until National Signing Day to choose Alabama (at a televised news conference, no less). In the four months between commits, Green flew under the radar while Jones remained in the public eye by refusing to name his leader while also taking all of his official visits, and reportedly being asked to leave during an official visit to Florid for "recruiting" for Oklahoma (which all turned out to be nonsense, but it was still quite a story). Further, while Green was certainly a huge get for UGA, it can be argued that he was just another link in the chain of stellar recruits that Mark Richt has brought to Athens over the years, while Julio put the cherry on top of what turned out to be the #1 recruiting class in the country at a program that hadn't been doing so well in that regard for...ever, really. So even though both were big gets for their respective programs, the differing circumstances surrounding their individual recruitment made Julio a household name and Green just another VHT at a school that was no stranger to them.

Julio was a bigger part of Alabama's passing game. This actually ties in with King's theory that Julio deserves more credit because he was stuck with a "servicable" John Parker Wilson running the Tide offense while Green had the luxury of Matt Stafford, the eventual #1 draft pick, throwing to him. This one actually has merit to it, if only for the fact that, with a QB like Stafford, the ball was being thrown around a lot more and there was a greater emphasis on the passing game. The numbers bear that out as well:

Georgia	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Mohamed Massaquoi	58	920	15.9	8	78	70.8
A.J. Green	56	963	17.2	8	54	74.1
Michael Moore	29	451	15.6	2	46	34.7

Alabama	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Julio Jones	58	924	15.9	4	64	66.0
Nick Walker	32	324	10.1	2	40	23.1
Mike McCoy	16	191	11.9	1	30	14.7

Looking at the top three receivers for each team last season, a few things ought to jump out at you:

1. The top three receivers for UGA were just that; receivers. Meanwhile, the Tide's #2 man was a Tight End and, to take it even further, the Dawg's 4th and 5th leading receivers were WRs while the Tide's Glen Coffee (a RB) was fourth ahead of WR Marquis Maze at Alabama.

2. Though Green led the team in receiving yards, Massaquoi actually led the team in number of receptions and tied Green for # of receiving TDs with 8. Meanwhile, no one on the Tide's roster came close to touching Julio's production from a # of receptions or receiving yards standpoint. Green was clearly a crucial cog in the UGA passing game, no doubt, but given Massaquoi's similar production and the fact that Michael Moore was a reliable third man, Greene didn't carry the burden of receiving production alone. Julio, on the other hand, was essentially the entire passing game for Alabama. Furthering that thought...

Knowshon Moreno stole A.J. Green's thunder, not Julio. With Stafford, a solid overall receiving corps, and a star at tailback, the Dawgs had a much more balanced attack than the Crimson Tide, and therefor the individual cogs in the UGA offense had more opportunity to shine. This made Knowshon Moreno very happy:

This is in no way meant to imply that Moreno is some sort of showboating hot dog, but let's face it, when you have teammates leaping over defenders and creating some of the more iconic images of the season, it's kind of hard to separate yourself from the pack. In Alabama's case, though Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram (and Roy Upchurch, when healthy), were solid running backs they weren't out making highlight reel moves, they were simply lowering their shoulders and running defenders over. Julio, on the other hand, was a one man highlight reel:

Soundtrack Warning

This all goes back to the idea that Jones was able to remain in the public conscious while Green was just another part of the Georgia offense.

Alabama had the better season. This is probably the biggest reason Julio has received more hype and attention than Green, and one King somewhat touched on in his column (in a condescending, homerish way):

So what’s the difference in how Green and Jones are being perceived? Does Jones being on a team with the magic name of "Alabama" that went to the SEC Championship play into it?

Yes it does and, quite frankly, it should. Before the Tide and Dawgs met last season, Georgia was a national title contender, and thus the focus of plenty of media coverage and the attendant scrutiny of it's players. After that game, though, Alabama became the national title contender and, considering Georgia was absolutely slaughtered by Florida four weeks later and dropped their season ending match with Georgia Tech, remained heavily in the discussion of "best teams" in the country while Georgia fell off the radar.

No one knows what the Georgia offense will do in 2009. Now that Stafford, Massaquoi, and Moreno are in the NFL, there is far more uncertainty about the Georgia offense than there is Alabama's. Though the Tide will try and open up the passing game and develop receiving threats outside of Jones in 2009, all the elements are their to continue the kind of physical, run first approach that dominated the play calling in '08. Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch are back to continue on with the power running, the TE position is again one of the deepest we have, and we have another smart if unspectacular QB that can make the throws necessary but who's biggest asset is taking what the defense gives him and avoiding negative plays. With the mindset that Alabama will be doing pretty much the same thing it did last year, it's only natural that a focus be put on Julio Jones, who was such a big part of the offense's success. Georgia, on the other hand, has more pressing concerns like finding a QB and replacing Moreno in the backfield, two issues that are going to be first and foremost in the minds of fans and the media when discussing the upcoming season.

All in all, Georgia fans have every right to consider A.J. Green one of the top receivers in the SEC (and even in the country) and should hold out high hopes that he will continue to develop into a truly elite player, but what they shouldn't do is get upset that Julio Jones is receiving more attention in the preseason. He earned it.

Playing the Numbers Game: New Vikings Get Their Numbers

Gonzo — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:44:19 -0000

According to Access Vikings, the newest members of the team have all gotten their new numbers. Here they are. . .at least when I get that Harvin jersey in a few weeks, I'll know what number is on it.

Vikings' Draftees

Percy Harvin (WR, Florida) - #12

Phil Loadholt (OT, Oklahoma) - #71

Asher Allen (CB, Georgia) - #30

Jasper Brinkley (LB, South Carolina) - #54

Jamarca Sanford (S, Mississippi) - #33

Vikings' Undrafted Free Agents

Sean Glennon (QB, Virginia Tech) - #6

Nick Moore (WR, Toledo) - #14

Vinny Perretta (WR, Boise State) - #15

Kahlil Bell (RB, UCLA) - #36

Ian Johnson (RB, Boise State) - #42

Devon Hall (S, Utah State) - #44 (Chuck Foreman's number? Really?)

Robert Francois (LB, Boston College) - #57

Tremaine Johnson (DT, Louisiana State) - #67

Jon Cooper (C, Oklahoma) - #68

Bobby Lepori (OT, Fresno State) - #72

Andy Kemp (G, Wisconsin) - #78

Nick Walker (TE, Alabama) - #89

Antoine Holmes (DT, North Carolina State) - #97

UK vs. Alabama: 'Bama personnel, stats, and other stuff

Ken Howlett — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 10:07:23 -0000

The time is upon us.

It will finally be revealed: what are our UK football 'Cats made of?

And what a first test they have in front of them; Alabama, fresh off of a 41-30 flogging of previously #3 ranked Georgia, in Athens no less, seem to be coming together and thriving under second year coach Nick Saban. The Tide stand at 5-0 and #2 in the nation. To buttress their case as the nations best, the Tide boasts impressive victories over #9 Clemson, Arkansas, and the aforementioned Georgia; Saban has his men believing and achieving.

This has been coming on for some time now; even last year when ''Bama posted a 7-6 record, they were in every game they played, losing by no more than seven points, and giving eventual National Champion LSU everything the Tigers could handle.

This year they seemed to have conquered their close-loss demons and are now burying their opponents early and often. The "32 Million-Dollar Man" is certainly earning his greenbacks.

For Kentucky, test number one of eight begins Saturday afternoon, here are some of the characters Big Blue will be facing in Tuscaloosa:

Alabama Personnel

Quarterback John Parker Wilson: 6'2", 211 lb senior -- This year Wilson is 69 for 110 ( 62.7% ) for 747 yards. He has thrown six touchdown passes and only one interception. Last year Wilson threw for 2,846 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Hoover, Alabama native has started 31 straight games for the Tide. He is the Alabama career leader in passing yards ( 6,398 ), touchdowns thrown ( 43 ) and total offense.

Running back Glen Coffee: 6'1", 198 lb junior -- Coffee averages 98 yards rushing per game, he's scored four touchdowns, and averages 7.0 yards per rush. He has also caught three passes for 12 yards. In '07 Coffee rushed for 545 yards on 129 carries, and scored four touchdowns; he caught 26 passes for 233 yards. Last year Coffee played in nine games, starting three.

Running back Roy Upchurch: 6'0", 201 lb junior -- Upchurch averages 39.8 yards per game ( 6.2 yards per carry ), and has scored two touchdowns. He also has seven receptions for 97 yards. In '07 Upchurch was third on the team in rushing, and he also served on the special teams.

Fullback Mark Ingram: 5'10", 215 lb freshman -- Ingram averages 56.0 yards per game ( 5.6 yards per carry ), and has scored five touchdowns. The true freshman also has three receptions for 12 yards. Ingram was rated a 4-star a prospect by Rivals, and was rated the 17th best athlete in the nation by Rivals. He is a nine-time All-State track star ( ran a 10.69 100, and 21.9 200 ). He is the son of former NFL wide receiver Mark Ingram.

Wide receiver Julio Jones: 6'4", 210 lb freshman -- Jones has 16 catches for 226 yards ( 14.1 yards per catch ), and four touchdowns. The Parade and USA Today All-America was the #1 overall rated player in the nation by Sports Illustrated. He was rated the #2 college prospect by ESPN, and the #4 overall prospect by Rivals. In the final three years of his illustrious high school career Jones made 194 catches for 3,292 yards ( 16.9 yards per catch ), with 50 touchdowns. He was also the Gatorade 2007 Track & Field Athlete of the Year in Alabama. Trevard Lindley, time to unveil your Neon Deon skills.

Wide receiver Mike McCoy: 6'2", 195 lb junior -- McCoy has made seven catches for 97 yards this year. He has started all five games. Last year he started nine of thirteen games while catching 28 passes for 207 yards and one touchdown.

Wide receiver Earl Alexander: 6'4", 216 lb sophomore -- Alexander has made five catches for 88 yards ( 17.6 yards per catch = dangerous ).

Tight end Nick Walker: 6'5", 248 lb senior -- Walker has made 13 catches for 113 yards ( 8.7 yards per catch ), and two touchdowns. In '07 he started all 13 games, and made 23 receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns. He has 30 career starts.

Punt and kick-off returner Javier Arenas: 5'9", 198 lb junior -- Arenas has returned 14 punts for 251 yards ( 17.9 yards per return - 2nd in the SEC ) and one touchdown this year. He has returned six kick-offs for an average of 25.8 yards. He has four return touchdowns for his career. In '07 Arenas was 2nd in the SEC and 12th nationally in punt return average at 15.4 yards per return. He returned a punt 86 yards for a touchdown versus Colorado in the Independence Bowl last year, and he also had a 61 yard punt return touchdown versus LSU. He of course is a former track star in the 200 and 400 meters. I think it wise that Masthay and Tydlacka kick away from this guy ... far, far away.

Defensive backs Justin Woodall: 6'2", 220 lb junior, and Rashad Johnson: 6'0", 186 lb senior -- These two are the leading defensive backs in the SEC. In the "Pass Break-ups" category Woodall has recorded four and Johnson has seven. Woodall also has three interceptions. Together they pose a very serious challenge to UK's ultra-young receiving corps.

Offensive tackle Andre Smith: 6'4", 330 lb junior -- Smith is considered one of the top pro prospects in the SEC. He is charged with protecting Wilson, and opening holes for the stable of ''Bama runners; jobs he executes very well. It is time to find out if UK's vaunted D-line is equal to all of the pre-conference hype. My advice -- Go back for that second bowl of Flutie Flakes, because getting to the quarterback is one of the keys to a UK victory.

A tiny bit of Tide stats

'Bama outscores their opponents, on average; 37.0 - 13.4.
'Bama has out-rushed their opponents 1,076 yards to 270. The Tide average 5.2 yards per rush, while giving up only 2.3 yards per rush.
'Bama has 13 rushing touchdowns, but has given up only one.
'Bama gives up 205.4 yards passing per game ( 'Bama averages 161.6 yards per game ).
'Bama holds their opponents, on average, to only 259.4 yards of total offense.
'Bama opponents are averaging 18.4 yards per punt return ( I see an opportunity ). Opponents are also averaging 23.2 yards per kick-off return.
'Bama has nine sacks for a loss of 81 yards.
'Bama has converted 49% of their third downs, while giving up only 28% of third down tries.
'Bama has only scored a touchdown in 58% of their red zone visits ( 14-24 ), but conversely, they have allowed their opponents only eight red zone appearances.
'Bama has outscored their opponents 74-0 in the first quarter ( that's an average score of 15-0 going into the second quarter ).
'Bama kicker Leah Tiffin has recorded only one touch-back in 32 kick-offs.

Some interesting statistics from each Alabama game

Clemson; a 34-10 'Bama victim:

Alabama held the Tigers to only 11 first downs.
Alabama held Clemson to zero net rushing yards on 14 attempts.
Alabama CONTROLLED the clock -- Time of possession: 'Bama 41:13 - Clemson 18:47. I don't think I've ever seen that much of a discrepancy in ball control.

Tulane; only lost 20-6:

'Bama scored only one offensive touchdown versus Tulane ( they scored on a punt return and an interception return ).
'Bama only had 172 total yards.
Tulane dominated time of possession: 36:35 to 23:25.
Tulane quarterback Kevin Moore was 28 of 49 for 225 yards.
'Bama quarterback John Parker Wilson was sacked four times.
Tulane's place-kicker missed field goals of 23 and 41 yards.
Tulane had a golden opportunity to really make the Tide sweat when they recovered a 'Bama fumble on Alabama's 23 yard line, but all they could muster was a missed field goal.

Western Kentucky; lost to 'Bama by an eerily familiar score of 41-7:

'Bama held WKU to only nine first downs ( UK held them to eight ).
'Bama ran for 281 yards ( 5.7 yards per rush ) versus WKU ( UK ran for 216 yards, also 5.7 yards per rush ).
'Bama held WKU to 158 total yards ( UK held WKU to 157 total yards ).
'Bama amassed 557 total yards ( UK had 398 ).
'Bama recorded zero punts versus Western ( UK punted four times ).
Western running back Bobby Rainey rushed four times for 11 yards versus Alabama ( he went for 104 yards on 8 carries versus UK ). I bet 'Bama didn't try to tackle him at the shoulders, a problem in basic tackling execution UK had in attempting to stop Rainey.
'Bama dominated the clock: 37:21 to 22:39.

Arkansas; Petrino was drilled 49-14:

'Bama rushed for 328 yards and four touchdowns.
'Bama intercepted Razorback quarterbacks Casey Dick three times, and Tyler Wilson once.
Casey Dick was 24 of 46 for 217 yards.
'Bama running back Glen Coffee had 10 carries for 162 yards. He also had an 87 yard touchdown run.
'Bama returned two interceptions for touchdowns ( Arenas and Woodall ).
'Bama scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions.
Arkansas running back MIchael Smith rushed 19 times for 98 yards ( 4.8 yards per carry ).
'Bama only converted on 5 of 17 third down attempts.
'Bama once again controlled the clock -- 34:46 to 25:14.

Georgia; brought back to earth 41-30:

'Bama lead at half 31-0.
'Bama scored on all five of their first half possessions.
John Parker Wilson was a hyper-efficient 13 of 16 for 205 yards and one touchdown.
'Bama rushed for four touchdowns.
'Bama held Knowshon Moreno to only 34 yards on nine carries ( behind from the get-go, UGA was forced to the air ).
'Bama freshman Julio Jones caught five balls for 94 yards ( 18.8 yards per catch ) and a touchdown.
Twenty-one of 'Bama's points came off of drives of only 48, 33, and 47 yards. They most definitely won the field position battle.
Moreno's two yard rushing touchdown broke an Alabama string of 22 straight quarters without allowing a rushing touchdown.
Georgia's Prince Miller returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown.
Georgia freshman receiver A.J. Green caught six passes for 88 yards and one touchdown.
'Bama ran the ball on 45 of 61 total offensive plays.
'Bama won the battle of time of possession, again -- 35:46 to 24:14.
'Bama out-gained Georgia by only 10 yards.

UK vs. Alabama: An SEC Statistical Comparison

'Bama leads the SEC in scoring with 37.0 points per game -- UK is fifth with 31.5 points per game.
UK is #1 in scoring defense, giving up only 5.5 points per game -- 'Bama is fifth, giving up 13.4 points per game.
UK is second in total defense, giving up 227.2 yards per game -- 'Bama in sixth, giving up 259.4 yards per game.
'Bama is fourth in total offense with 376.8 yards per game -- UK is sixth with 352.0 yards per game.
'Bama is first in rush defense, allowing only 54.0 yards per game -- UK is fifth, allowing 73.2 yards per game.
UK is fifth in pass defense, allowing only 154.0 yards per game -- 'Bama is ninth, allowing 205.4 yards per game.
'Bama is #1 in rush offense, with 215.2 yards per game -- UK is fifth with 169.5 yards per game.
UK is eighth in pass offense with 182.5 yards per game -- 'Bama is eleventh with 161.6 yards per game.
UK is #1 in kick-off return average at 38.5 yards -- 'Bama is tenth averaging 18.8 yards per return.
'Bama is third in the SEC with seven interceptions -- UK is fifth with five picks.
'Bama leads the SEC in third down conversions at 49.2% -- UK is ninth at 36.7%.
Both teams have recorded nine sacks.
UK leads the SEC in sacks allowed with only two.
UK leads the SEC in allowing only 11.2 first downs per game.
UK's Tim Masthay leads the SEC in punting average at 45.7 yards per punt.

Local Connection

Former Elizabethtown star Brandon Deaderick ( 6'4", 287 lbs ) is a starting defensive lineman for the Tide. He is a former teammate of UK O-lineman Zipp Duncan.

So there you have it. Some of the information is as scary as Heather Locklear driving down a crowded roadway, but there does exist a few areas of weakness that Kentucky can take advantage of, especially if they harbor any hopes of pulling off the season-making upset.

We'll have more game analysis and commentary over the next few days.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!