SB Nation - P.J. Fitzgerald

Random Musings From the SEC Championship Game

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:00:31 -0000

It's a bit late in the week for musings on the SEC Championship Game, but with the BCS Championship Game still one month away, I figure we have plenty of time to fully dissect the victory in Atlanta. With that in mind, here are a few random musings I had from watching the SEC Championship Game:

Florida ran their combo option / shovel pass play on the opening play of the game, and Eryk Anders chased down Hernandez from the backside to make the tackle for a minimal gain. Anders followed Hernandez the entire way and we were obviously prepared for such a play, but the interesting thing of it was that Florida never went back to that play the rest of the game. That really surprised me, especially given how successful that play has been for them the past couple of years.
A large degree of Florida's lack of point production in this game can be traced back to three key offensive mistakes on the Gators' part, namely two costly drops and a terrible throw by Tebow. The first big mistake came on the opening drive when Jeff Demps dropped a pass out of the backfield that was destined for big yardage (Florida ultimately went three and out on that drive), and the second was Hernandez dropping a pass at the goal line after he left Cory Reamer in the dust (Florida had to settle for three points there). Finally, Tebow made a terrible throw on the interception to Arenas... it was an easy touchdown pass with the proper arc on the throw, and instead it ended up being the dagger through their hearts. I'm not saying Florida would have won had they capitalized on these three plays, but the game would have certainly been much closer.
Speaking of that throw by Tebow... it's throws like that why he'll never be a legitimate NFL quarterback. Call him the greatest college player ever if you want, but he has a slow wind-up in his delivery and he doesn't throw the football vertically very well. You can get away with that, combined with the rest of the positive things he can do for you, when you are playing the SEC East, but the NFC East? That stuff doesn't fly up there. Tebow will probably be a first round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, and he may be an outstanding player in some type of a hybrid role or at another position, but in terms of his potential as a traditional NFL quarterback, his prospects aren't much better than mine.

I found our defensive strategy pretty interesting. We had some blitz packages and mixed up our looks, as per usual, but it certainly seemed like our strategy was to make Florida throw the football vertically down the field against six or seven defenders in coverage. We wanted to take away the interior run and the short passing game, and from there we wanted to make Florida beat us by having Tebow sit back in the pocket and throw the football down the field into tight windows. That was a fairly different strategy than what we used last year in this game, and if nothing else the end result was a lot better.

Only allowing 13 points to the Gators looks impressive on paper, but in all honesty we didn't exactly stop them, hence why they averaged almost seven yards per play. They are an elite offense and they had a lot of success against our defense. Fortunately, though, they shot themselves in the foot just enough at critical times, and our offense scored so many points that they were forced to push the envelope later in the game when they would have otherwise taken easy points. Combined, that kept them to only 13 points, despite the fact that they generally moved the ball well.

And speaking of that latter point, the game on Saturday reinforced the long-held notion that the best defense is a good offense. That was on display all afternoon in Atlanta.

I sincerely hope that Aaron Hernandez goes pro, and he's a fool if he doesn't. In terms of pure match-up issues, I think he probably gave us more issues than any other single skill position player we faced all year long. I hope he's playing somewhere in the NFL next year when the Gators make the trip to Tuscaloosa.

You know the corner blitz from Javier Arenas that we see all of the time? For whatever reason, I don't think we saw that a single time against Florida. Again, I think it was clear that we wanted to force Tebow to throw the football down the field into tight windows.

The play of the game... from P.J. Fitzgerald? If he doesn't make a great open field tackle on Brandon James, undoubtedly James will score and Florida will take a 10-9 lead and have all of the momentum despite 'Bama having controlled the first quarter. That play didn't get much attention, but it was absolutely critical.

As great of a player as Julio Jones is, I think it's clear at this point that it is in fact Marquis Maze that makes our passing game go. Jones is a great player in his own right, but he draws so much attention from opposing defenses that it really limits his production. He always draws the opposing team's best cornerback -- Joe Haden followed him around the Georgia Dome like he was his shadow -- and opposing defenses usually have either a linebacker or a safety giving assistance of some form to the corner. All in it all, it really just limits what he can feasibly do, and from there it is really all up to Maze -- who is usually isolated on the second or third corner -- to make plays. And notice that Maze's best games (Virginia Tech, Arkansas, LSU, and Florida) have been the best days for our passing game as well. I highly doubt that is a coincidence.

Brandon Spikes was absolutely abused in this game. Josh Bynes may have had a career day in the Iron Bowl, but we beat Spikes to a pulp in Atlanta. Far from the career day that I feared he may have, that was probably the worst performance of his collegiate career.

Could there possibly a more inconsistent player than Greg McElroy? I tell you, that guy has been all over the board this year. He has played perfect (Florida), extremely good (Arkansas), good (Virginia Tech), decent (Kentucky and LSU), poorly (Tennessee and Ole Miss), and ungodly terrible (South Carolina). Pretty much anywhere along the performance spectrum, McElroy has been there at some point throughout the year. In terms of variance, I don't think I can ever recall a 'Bama player who has been as all over the board as McElroy has this year.

Speaking of Greg McElroy's performance against Florida, if that was not the best performance of my lifetime by an Alabama quarterback, I don't know which one could legitimately be considered better. He played at an extremely high level against an elite defense, and made plays with both his arm and his feet. Personally, that was the best performance I have ever seen by an Alabama quarterback.

As a closing thought, could there ever be a bigger SEC Championship Game than this? Considering that both teams came in undefeated, #1 v. #2, and a rematch of last year's game, I really don't think you could ever have a bigger SEC Championship Game, even as a theoretical matter. Tim Brando mentioned something to that effect on the CBS broadcast Saturday afternoon, and I think he is right. For all intents and purposes, this is as big as it will ever get.

Almost Perfection

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:36:55 -0000

In the preview of SEC Championship Game this past Friday, looking at what it would take to beat the Gators, I wrote the following:

In short, what we really need is perfection. Of course, a football game (not counting kicks) usually consists of 120-130 snaps, and that's just entirely too many snaps to not expect some breakdowns, particularly against a team of Florida's caliber. Thus, as with most things, perfection is an elusive goal in football, and it is one that we will not attain tomorrow. Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that we are going to have to come very close to that level if we are indeed going to knock of Florida.

And as expected, perfection was indeed unattainable. We made some mistakes throughout the course of the game, obviously. Leigh Tiffin missed an extra point. Julio Jones had a key drop, and may have misplayed a potential big play on a deep pass.We missed a couple of sacks here and there. But it wasn't perfection only because achieving perfection is practically impossible even on a purely theoretical level.

In terms of the legitimate possibilities of human performance, however, our collective performance yesterday in Atlanta was probably as close to perfection as anyone could ever realistically expect. Just take a general look at the stat book... we racked up almost 500 yards of total offense. Mark Ingram had almost 200 total yards and three touchdowns. Greg McElroy averaged almost 14 yards per passing attempt. We held Florida to 13 points -- the fewest points an Urban Meyer team has scored since our 31-3 thumping of them in 2005 -- and pitched a shutout in the second half. We held Florida to under 100 yards rushing, and players not named Tim Tebow combined to run for all of 26 yards. We didn't have a single turnover, and we ended up with one penalty for all of five yards.

Even on a non-quantitative basis, yesterday was about as good as it gets. Greg McElroy played the game of his life, and made plays with both his arm and his feet. Mark Ingram may have won the Heisman Trophy with his performance. And Trent Richardson, really, was even more successful running the football than Ingram. Colin Peek had the best game we've had from a tight end in ages. Marquis Maze was a game-changer. Marquis Johnson found redemption. Terrence Cody dominated the Florida interior offensive line. P.J. Fitzgerald made a touchdown-saving tackle against an elite returner in the open field. Javier Arenas, fittingly enough, put the final dagger through the Gators heart not with his return abilities, but with a fine play on an interception as a defensive back.

Even the coaching staff was on fire. Jim McElwain constantly changed things up on offense, and the Gators were always a step behind the adjustments. Effectively everything that you could do on offense yesterday, we did it. And the same thing went for us defensively. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart constantly changed our defensive packages, and there was no inherent tendencies to anything that we did.

And remember that Friday post I referenced in the introduction? In that piece I outlined eleven different things that we needed to do in order to get the victory. In hindsight, we did ten of those things, and in many of those categories we far exceeded what I thought we needed to do. Regardless of how you analyze it, you really cannot heap enough praise on the way that we played yesterday.

Again, absolute perfection really isn't attainable, but our performance yesterday was probably as close to perfection as you could ever realistically get.

And in all fairness I cannot say that Florida was really anything less than I expected. They are a truly great team in their own right, and in many ways they were exactly what I feared. Their offense is still unbelievably good, they are outstanding in every aspect of the kicking game, and the defense is as tough as nails. If you look at their performance yesterday, it wasn't that they really did anything wrong. By and large they played a fine game in their own right, and their shortcomings were really more about great plays that we made than anything that they did wrong. Again, they are a great team and should be recognized as so. I imagine they annihilate Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, and should probably finish up #2 in the country.

All in all, we needed a great performance to win yesterday, and we went above and beyond that level. We didn't just play great football, we came as close to perfection as we probably could have gotten. In all honesty, given the quality of the opponent, this was the best game an Alabama team has played since January 1st, 1993 against Miami and perhaps even the best we've played since January 1st, 1966 against Nebraska. Bottom line, a performance of this caliber is extremely rare even on a historical level. We needed to play like this in order to win, and we rose to the occasion. With absolutely no doubt whatsoever, to date, yesterday was this team's finest hour.

Somehow, Someway, 'Bama Survives

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 17:38:42 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

Ugly efforts produce ugly scenes.

Browse more photos »

For about three hours yesterday afternoon, all of the stars aligned for Auburn to pull off the biggest upset in Iron Bowl history. Alabama played very poorly, posting probably it's worst performance since the 2007 Louisiana-Monroe debacle. Auburn, on the other, easily played their best game of the season. And all of the little breaks that they needed to fall their way were doing just that.

For Alabama, it was effectively a trainwreck by the entire team. Heisman contender Mark Ingram was completely stuffed in the running game, missed an easy touchdown pass to Julio Jones on a trick play, and ultimately went out with an injury. The only thing he fared better than was the Thanksgiving turkey. Likewise, our offensive line was completely manhandled in the trenches by an inferior defensive line that they should have dominated. The passing game to receivers not named Julio Jones was completely non-existent. Greg McElroy passed up an easy first down on a scramble to throw an incomplete pass to a completely blanketed receiver in the red zone (a drive where we ultimately came away with no points). James Carpenter was whipped off the edge for a key sack late in the fourth quarter. The offense continued to fall apart in the red zone. They could not take advantage of great field position all day. There was no vertical element whatsoever in the passing game, once again, and the offense was almost wholly incapable of creating big plays. The Alabama defense was confused as hell all afternoon against Gus Malzahn's mad scientist offensive scheme. Eryk Anders made some terrible plays in run support leading to big Auburn plays. Nico Johnson dropped an easy interception at a crucial time. Mark Barron bought into a double move route by Darvin Adams like a dumb investor buying into the Bernie Madoff scheme. Justin Woodall played poorly, yet again, committing a costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that cost us at least four points, and then capped it off by giving up a touchdown pass after biting on the playaction fake. We missed an easy, crucial sack in the fourth quarter that ultimately cost us about 40 yards in field position. P.J. Fitzgerald had one of his usual 55-yard punts that sailed out of the back of the end zone. We were completely unprepared for an Auburn onside kick, even though it was clear they had something up their sleeve with their unusual grouping. Leigh Tiffin missed a field goal, and had another kick-off sail out of bounds.

And then all of those little breaks that Auburn needed kept falling their way. They were able to recover two muffed punts deep in their own territory. They had a critical interception erased by their own incompetence, i.e. a display of the Human False Start Machine himself, Lee Ziemba. The umpire found himself in the way of no less than three dump-off passes over the middle, effectively ending our chances on all three occasions. Clinton Durst's punt took the perfect bounce to pin us up deep against our own goal line in the fourth quarter. Julio Jones seemingly good catch on the opening drive was called incomplete and was not reviewed by the booth.

Somehow, someway, though, 'Bama survived it all and lived to tell about it. We did just enough -- barely -- to hang on in the first 52 minutes to give ourselves a chance to win it in the end and that is what we did. The final drive was just about as ugly as it got. It had all of the aesthetic value of a 1978 Datsun. We had to convert several third downs, gave up a crucial sack, and were unable to generate any explosive plays. It was the epitome of an ugly, dink and dunk drive, but fortunately we got it all done in the end. It wasn't pretty, but it was nevertheless ultimately a 15-play, 79-yard touchdown drive that will forever be cemented in Iron Bowl lore. Sometimes it is about functionality, not aesthetics.

For the most part, though, it was an ugly effort by the Tide. Plain and simple, Auburn wanted this game more than we did. They showed up with more emotion and more intensity, and they sustained at a higher level throughout the game than we did. Maybe it was just the short week, with Thanksgiving being one of the days for preparation. Admittedly, that hurt our effort, especially against Malzahn's highly complicated offensive scheme. Maybe it was something else altogether, but either way Auburn showed up with a vengeance and we showed up with the indifference of Jerry Seinfeld. That's a damning deficiency, and one that there can be no legitimate excuse whatsoever for.

Perhaps we thought it was going to be a cakewalk like last year's 36-0 route. Maybe that was it, but if so I hope our players saw enough yesterday to remove their collective heads from their rectums. I don't care how lopsided things are in this series, this is still probably the most physical game in the country and a game probably played with more emotion than any other in the country to boot. Iron Bowl victories rarely come easy, regardless of the circumstances, and if our players legitimately thought otherwise, they were fooling themselves. Repeat after me: Iron. Bowl. Victories. Do. Not. Come. Easy.

Of course, stepping back from the ledge a bit, it should be noted that in many ways this game was a lopsided affair in both directions. Auburn absolutely dominated early, gaining a 14-0 lead after the first four possessions and out-gaining the TIde in total yards a whopping 138 to 5. But we survived the shitstorm, as Saban would later call it, and from there we effectively dominated the game, out-scoring Auburn 26-7 and out-gaining them somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 to 180.

It wasn't so much that we played poorly all day as much as it was that we got off to the worst start we've had in many, many years, and then despite generally controlling the game from that point moving forward, we shot ourselves in the foot just enough -- Barron's big play allowed, Leigh Tiffin's blocked kick, Mark Ingram's missed touchdown pass, and another failure to convert in the red zone -- to keep this one going right down to the wire. If we stop shooting ourselves in the foot after the terrible start, we win this one easily somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-14, but obviously it didn't happen that way.

For Auburn, their players played a fine game and their coaches did a fine job to boot. They should all be proud of their collective effort. And frankly if their fan base wants to bask in the comfort of such a supposedly great moral victory, let 'em. As our Tennessee friend so accurately pointed out in his meltdown last month, "There are no f*cking moral victories." We look to hold the advantage in this rivalry for years to come, and if they want to get all cheery and jolly over a close loss at home, that's their problem, not mine.

In any event, though, it was an ugly day and we should all feel very fortunate to be headed back to Tuscaloosa as winners. Being brutally honest, most of the time you go out and play in the SEC like we did today, a loss is almost an inevitability. We played with fire and somehow avoided getting burnt. Doing so is a rarity in the SEC.

From here, we just have to regroup and play better. Florida would kill us given the way we played yesterday, and that's the harsh truth. We're a team that clearly has some legitimate problems right now, but we're going to have to find a way to fix those things in the next seven days. Fortunately, I've said for the past several weeks that all we really needed to do down the stretch was to (1) win, regardless of the circumstances, and (2) stay healthy doing so. And as heart-attack-inducing as yesterday's Iron Bowl was, we did both of those things and we lived to fight another week. For now, we're 12-0 yet again, and we can put all of our sights on Florida. No one ever said it would be easy to beat the Gators, and nothing we saw yesterday changed that harsh reality, but then again we knew all along that we would practically need the perfect game in Atlanta to stamp our ticket to Pasadena. Anyone who ever legitimately thought otherwise was fooling themselves.

For now, though, today is an off day for the Crimson Tide. We got back to Tuscaloosa late last night and today is an easy, leisurely day in the Druid City. Tomorrow, all focus and efforts will turn towards Florida. Our Iron Bowl performance was ugly as hell, but we survived and I'm sure it will be celebrated as such. I say we do the same thing. Enjoy another great day of football, savor yet another Iron Bowl victory, and then all eyes can turn to the rematch we've been waiting on for twelve months.

Initial Impressions from the MSU Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:40:01 -0000

A few thoughts from the initial aftermath of the Tide's 31-3 win over Mississippi State:

From the outset, you really could not ask for anything more than we did against Mississippi State last night. Considering that we control our own destiny, all we really needed to do was find a way to win, stay healthy, and if we could win in a route then that was all lagniappe. And, sure enough, we found a way to do all three of those things against the Bullies. Again, you really couldn't ask for anything more.
Credit Mississippi State for showing up ready to play with an intense crowd. It was the biggest crowd MSU has ever had in Starkvegas, and it was a very good atmosphere from the outset. Moreover, MSU came out firing on all cylinders and gave us some legitimate troubles early. We obviously took control as the game moved on, but it certainly wasn't from a lack of effort on their part.
Defensively, we had a really slow start to this game, and for whatever reason MSU gave us a lot of trouble. On their first two possessions, Mississippi State had 85 yards on only 11 total plays and had a few legitimate big plays to boot. I still don't know exactly what happened, but they gave us a lot of problems early and we were fortunate that they ultimately shot themselves in the foot on both occasions. Fortunately, though, after Mark Barron's interception, the defense simply became dominating. After that, MSU had four possessions the rest of the way in the first half, all of which resulted in three and outs (twelve plays combined for a net of four yards).
Speaking of Mississippi State shooting themselves in the foot, that was something they consistently did all night and it was to our great benefit. They had a touchdown on the first play of the game with a decent throw, they stopped themselves on the fourth down try on the first possession, and the interception was a terrible throw by Lee. And that was just in the first six minutes of the game. From there, it really didn't get any better. Bumphis stepped out on a would-be kick return for a touchdown, they missed a chip shot field goal, and had a busted coverage that led to an easy touchdown for 'Bama. All in all, we played pretty well for the most part, but MSU did a lot to help our effort.
Offensively it was really a boom-or-bust night. Overall things look very good -- 31 points, 440+ yards of total offense, and 7.7 yards per play -- but those numbers are inflated by a lot of big plays. We had five really big plays in this game that combined to generate at least 21 points and about 230 yards of total offense. Outside of those five big plays, we really had very little success offensively... around 53 snaps offensively for about 200 yards (fewer than four yards per snap). We were basically either hitting huge plays or getting shut down.

Largely the same story goes for Mark Ingram. His raw stat line of 19 carries for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns looks great, but he earned it the hard way last night. The big 70-yard touchdown run inflates everything, but when you factor that out he had 18 carries for 79 yards (only 4.3 yards per carry). He played very well, as is usually the case, but the stat line doesn't really do his performance justice. This was far from an easy romp for him, and far from it he had to fight like hell to get everything that he did.

And not surprisingly, the same thing goes for the passing game. We had three big plays in the passing game, but aside from that we had 15 passing attempts net only 57 yards (3.8 yards per attempt). Again, the general theme of the night offensively was that we were basically either getting huge plays, or MSU was shutting us down. No real in-between to be found.

The touchdown pass to Darius Hanks was a blown coverage by Mississippi State. We had two receivers to the left of the formation -- Hanks and Julio Jones -- and they blitzed a cornerback from that side. That left two defenders matched up against our two wide receivers, and for some reason the Mississippi State safety just kind of lingered out there in no-man's land and didn't really cover anyone. That left Hanks wide open, and a good throw and catch resulted in a touchdown.

Hat tip to Trent Richardson for good pass protection on that play. He came across from the other side of the formation and did a good job picking up the blitzing defensive back, and that allowed this play to develop. Without that, this play likely ends in a sack.

The touchdown pass to Julio Jones was a blown coverage, too, but it honestly wouldn't have mattered one way or the other. Even without the blown coverage, Julio would have been manned up on a safety and McElroy delivered an absolute strike. The blown coverage made it easier, of course, but in reality this would have been a touchdown either way.

Both touchdown passes came on a variation of the same play, and in both cases Mississippi State blew it. It was a post / corner route combo in both situations, and they couldn't cover it either time.

Marquis Maze had another good night, and we targeted him more often than any other receiver, something that is becoming a bit of a trend. His long catch and run was an absolutely incredible play, and it alone gave us three points. Even with Julio, he may very well be our best playmaker on the outside now.

Offensively, I really don't get why we aren't throwing the football down the field more often. We only threw the football beyond 15 yards from the line of scrimmage a grand total of two times all of last night -- both of which came on busted coverages -- and that really had a very big effect on us offensively. Mississippi State compressed the hell out of everything, and that was really the big reason that we struggled to move the ball outside of those big plays. I just don't get it at all, really. It's one thing to not be able to throw the football vertically, but to not even try to throw it vertically? That I don't understand.

One of the biggest positives for the offense was that we had a complete lack of negative plays. We didn't commit a single offensive penalty, did not turn the football over, and did not give up a single sack. Any time you can do that, particularly against a team with a struggling offense, you move a lot closer to victory.

Defensively, Anthony Dixon had a fair amount of success, but as a unit we did what we really needed to do. Any time you face a team with very few weapons offensively, all you really need to do is relatively limit what little weapons that they have, and we did that with Dixon. He had a decent amount of success, as expected, but again we did what we needed to do.

Something to keep in mind, we spent a lot of time in nickel package defending the Mississippi State version of the spread option. Keep that in mind when we face Florida.

Marquis Johnson played a fine game last night and made several big plays. Interestingly enough, though, MSU kept going after him time and time again, something we should all keep our eyes on. It is clear that opposing offensive coordinators generally consider him the weakest link we have at corner, and they try to go at him accordingly. That means that he will have to step up and get the job done in key situations, and that is exactly what he did against MSU. It's really just shows you what kind of a defense we have when a player of this caliber is the nickel back.

Kareem Jackson... I don't think MSU threw a single pass in his direction all night long. I think that speaks volumes about his level of play.

Justin Woodall had a rough night, and I hate to say it but he has struggled in recent weeks. We're going to need him to play better football against Auburn and Florida.

Mark Barron, on the other hand, is becoming an absolute standout at safety. He gets better and better each week, and his amazing athleticism is showcasing itself even more as he gets more and more comfortable with his role. He's already one of the best safeties in the conference, and at this point the sky is the limit for him.

Kick coverage... what kick coverage? We effectively gave up the equivalent of two touchdowns on kick coverage breakdowns, yet MSU shot itself in the foot to the point that they didn't get a single point out of either one of them. Again, MSU was its own worst enemy for most of the night. As for us, well, we'll never beat Florida giving up yards like that, and they've got a much better returner than anyone the Bulldogs put on the field last night.

P.J. Fitzgerald did a nice job punting last night. He netted over 40 yards per punt, had no touchbacks, and downed two inside the twenty yard line.

Another 10-0 start for the Crimson Tide, it's 17th in school history. If that doesn't tell you all you need to know about our tradition, nothing will. It's incredibly hard to win football games in this conference, and to reel off 15 straight wins in regular season conference play really is an incredible feat.

All in all, it was a good night for the Tide. As I mentioned from the outset, all we really need to do until we get to Atlanta is to win and stay healthy, and we did that against Mississippi State. Tennessee-Chattanooga won't seriously challenge us -- the only thing that can get us there is injuries -- and that really leaves only Auburn left. I do think that Coach Saban is right... our best football is still out there, and we're going to have to play up to that level if we are indeed going to knock off Florida in Atlanta. For now, though, it's all a matter of positioning, and we are doing the things we need to do in order to put ourselves in the position we want to be in come the first week of December.

Final thought... Again, it's hard to win football games in this league, very hard. And any time you can start off 10-0 and go on the road in conference play and spank someone 31-3 in a game that their entire program had marked on their calender, that's just a great night. Again, it's very hard to win in this league, and it's even harder to do what we're doing. We basically wandered the wilderness for eleven seasons from 1997-2007, so just be glad that we are back where we want to be. Enjoy the spoils of success while they last.

Why Lane Kiffin and Tennessee Fans Are Stupid (Among Other Reasons)

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:25:10 -0000

ed. - We'd like to extend a warm welcome to all of our new friends from Vol Nation, especially PhillyVol and tommyut, who apparently can't read the time stamp of the article which clearly indicates this was posted October 28th, the Wednesday after the game. If there's anyone who hasn't moved on, it's your friend orangetaz for posting a link to a topic that's almost two weeks old.

Believe it or not, there's apparently a conspiracy theory afoot. I don't know if the ol' vaunted REC has finally gotten to the SEC officials or what, but either way Lane Kiffin is talking of "magical" flags appearing, and when SEC Commissioner Mike Slive told him to shut up, that just meant it was time for Ed Orgeron to run his mouth talking about the officials favoring the conference's best teams. And, of course, this all comes against a backdrop of countless Tennessee fans whining about the officiating Saturday.

It all sounds incredibly stupid to me, but even so I want to take a closer look at the penalties called against the Vols on Saturday and see exactly what happened. And to that end, with the help of flaco, we're going to do just that.

From the outset, it should be noted that Tennessee was flagged with eight penalties on Saturday afternoon. Four of those penalties, however, consisted of three false starts and one delay of game penalty. None of those penalties can be seriously questioned. They are all elementary calls that need no further explanation via film review. That alone takes half of the penalties off the board, and leaves us only four for consideration. Those four penalties are as follows:

Pass interference on a ball thrown to Julio Jones on a 3rd and 8
Illegal block on Javier Arenas' long punt return
Holding on Tennessee while the Vols were driving into Alabama territory
Roughing the punter immediately before Ingram's fumble

Let's take a closer look at all four of these penalties, beginning with the pass interference call on the pass to Julio Jones. Click the following clip for the play:

This penalty comes on a 3rd and 8 from the 'Bama 35-yard line, with about two minutes remaining in the first quarter. The penalty results in a 'Bama first down, and ultimately a Leigh Tiffin field goal.

Specifically, the flag is thrown on Dennis Rogan, and it's hard to complain too much about this call. Julio runs a hard slant inside, gets the proper positioning, but there is contact from Rogan the entire way. There is nothing overly egregious here, but again there is a good deal of contact beginning at the snap and continuing throughout the route, and the ball is clearly close enough to be considered catchable, so again it's hard to cite any real officiating error on this play. Any reasonable referee could have thrown a flag here, and this one did, after watching the route develop the entire way.

The next penalty comes via an illegal block early in the third quarter. Click the following clip for the play

Keep your eye on Denarius Moore in this clip. Javier Arenas has open field in front of him, and he is racing up the right sideline with two blockers -- Dre Kirkpatrick and Chris Rogers -- in front of him. With the way this play is set up, this one is going to be a huge return, plain and simple, and perhaps even a touchdown.

Moore, however, changes that by committing a textbook illegal block, i.e. a block below the waist. He clearly lunges for the lower legs of Dre Kirkpatrick, and the move clearly pays off. By doing so he takes both Kirkpatrick and Rogers out of the play, and forces Arenas to alter his route so that his Tennessee teammates can stop him a couple of yards further up field. Naturally, there is a referee watching all of about five yards away from the foul, and he immediately throws a flag. No conspiracies here, this is a textbook rule violation that any competent official would flag. Again, no one could rationally complain about this flag being thrown.

And in any event, two more points should be made here. One, this is actually a great play by Moore, and a classic example of where committing a penalty is actually beneficial to your team. Second, and finally, it should be pointed out that even if this were a blown call, it would have had no real impact on the game. Alabama went three-and-out in the following possession, and the ensuing P.J. Fitzgerald punt sailed out of the back of the endzone.

On to the third penalty...

This penalty is a holding penalty called on Tennessee center Cody Sullins for tackling Alabama defensive end Brandon Deaderick. And, once again, this is a clear violation. Deaderick is playing inside and gets great penetration into the Tennessee backfield, and upon seeing this Sullins grabs him by the shoulder pads and simply drags him to the ground. Regardless of your personal interpretation of the NCAA rule regarding offensive holding, it's clear this play qualifies as a penalty.

Now, to be sure, this was a costly penalty for the Vols. The run resulted in a one-yard gain, and it would have set up a 3rd and 7 for the Vols from the 'Bama 16-yard line. Instead, it created a 2nd and 18 from the 'Bama 27-yard line, and after two incomplete passes the Vols had a field goal attempt blocked by Terrence Cody. Nevertheless, the fact that it was costly doesn't make it a bad call. Far from it, it's as easy of a call as you can ever get for a referee. Offensive linemen cannot tackle defensive linemen. This is football, not Ultimate Fighting. Period.

On to the fourth penalty...

The final penalty for the Vols comes via roughing the punter. And once again, this one is in no way whatsoever a controversial call. Chris Donald comes in to try to block the punt, and clearly makes pretty hard contact with Alabama punter P.J. Fitzgerald. There is no grand acting job by Fitzgerald on this punt, or anything of the sort. He gets roughed up, and the flag gets thrown. Simple enough.

Furthermore, as was the case with the Vols' previous special teams penalty, it should be pointed out that even if this penalty was bogus, it nevertheless actually turned out well for the Vols. David Oku called for a fair catch of the 'Bama punt at the Tennessee 44-yard line, and when Mark Ingram fumbled on the following play, it resulted in Tennessee taking over at the 'Bama 43-yard line. In other words, oddly enough, this penalty actually gave the Vols an extra 13 yards of field position.

And those are the calls, all eight of them, plain and simple. No grand conspiracy theories here, no "magical" penalties, or anything of the sort. These were all easy calls that no one could really rationally dispute, and with that in mind that it should come as no great surprise that all of the puke orange complaints over the officiating have been general in nature, and not specific criticisms of the specific calls. Simply put, they don't have a leg to stand on.

Furthermore, all of this juvenile pissing and moaning completely overlooks the fact that Tennessee had several calls in this game go their way, and unjustifiably so. You can see that just by looking at the film of the last drive. Watch the following clip, and keep your eye close on the tight end who goes in motion:

This play comes with a mere 1:10 remaining in the game and Tennessee facing a 2nd and 10. Tennessee tight end Luke Stocker goes in motion, and is responsible for sealing off Alabama defensive end / linebacker Chavis Williams while Crompton rolls out to the right. But Williams is a quick player -- a linebacker by physical build -- and he shoots to the inside of Stocker, who is expecting Williams to move to the outside, and he gets into the backfield. So what does Stocker do? He grabs ahold of Williams jersey for dear life, clearly committing a holding penalty in the process. Without the holding, who knows? Maybe Williams gets the sack, but at the least he disrupts the throw and likely forces an incompletion, so the Vols would have been facing 3rd and 10 with about one minute remaining. Instead, the hold gives Crompton time, and he founds Gerald Jones for a 14-yard gain, giving the Vols' new life at the 'Bama 45-yard line.

With the penalty, it would give the Vols a 2nd and 20 at their own 31-yard line with only about 60 seconds left, a call that would completely alter the course of the game. But where is the penalty? Where is that "magical" penalty flag for such an obvious infraction? Where is that conspiracy? It's nowhere to be found, and instead the yellow yankie sits in the referees back pocket while the Vols get a freebie to march down field for a potential game-winning field goal attempt. Conspiracy, my ass.

Lane Kiffin may have gone conservative at the end, and he can blame it all he wants on fears of the officials screwing his team over. But such claims have no legitimate foundation, as we see here. At absolute most, he should have said that he went conservative at the end because he had no confidence in his players to not shoot themselves in the foot with boneheaded penalties. But of course Kiffin would rather run his mouth about everything but his own team, and if the truth gets in the way of that, then the truth be damned. Same thing goes for all of the Tennessee fans repeating his propaganda.

And that is why Lane Kiffin and Tennessee fans are stupid, among other reasons.

Initial Impressions from the Ole Miss Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:59:26 -0000

A few initial impressions from the Ole Miss game:

First and foremost, this is a big victory for the Tide. I know that some of the luster was taken off this game with Ole Miss' loss against South Carolina a couple of weeks back, but even so this game received lots of national attention yesterday, and it was the game that the pundits had circled all year long. To come out and win this type of game, on the road, is a big victory.
Aside from the fact that it was a big victory, everything becomes more impressive in context. We beat a top 20 SEC team, on the road, 22-3 -- a pretty good shellacking in its own right -- and truthfully the game shouldn't have been that close. As good as we have been, we continue to be unable to fire on all cylinders, and we left a lot of points on the board yesterday afternoon. It was a 22-3 game that, truth be told, should have been even more lopsided. No doubt about it... we absolutely trashed this Ole Miss team physically. It was like watching a heavyweight fight where one fighter is destroying his opponent, but cannot quite get the knock-out blow he wants until the late rounds.
The strength of the defense carried the day once again, and it's literally impossible to overstate the efforts those guys displayed. We got after Snead, completely shut down the running game, playing very tight coverage, and fought like hell for the football on every snap. If you were a coach putting on a clinic about how defense should be played, this is the game film you would put on as an example. I said this in the game thread yesterday, and in the sober reality of the day after I will reiterate here... this was the best defensive performance I've seen by an Alabama team since January 1st, 1993.
Offensively, well, that was another story, particularly with regard to offensive playcalling. It just never made any sense whatsoever to me, or just about anyone else for that matter, and it's just entirely too much to get into with an initial impressions piece. I'm going to have a full column up on this later this week, probably around Wednesday.
Greg McElroy easily had his worst day in crimson to date. I do think he was hampered a bit by poor play-calling, but even so he played poorly. He never looked comfortable in the pocket -- though the protection was probably about as good as you could expect against a front four like Ole Miss has -- and the way that he forced the ball to Julio Jones at times was almost laughable. He just looked like a completely different quarterback than we've seen to date. He honestly reminded me of John Parker Wilson circa 2006 or 2007 yesterday. I hate to be so negative about the kid, but... 43% completion percentage, 4.3 yards per attempt... all the crimson Kool-Aid in the world doesn't make that look good. It goes without saying that McElroy needs to play a lot better moving forward.
That said, it just shows you good of an overall team we have when we can have such, um, shall we say "questionable" play-calling and quarterback play, and still win in a romp over a quality SEC team on the road. Teams that could do this are very much few and far between.

Mark Ingram had an incredible day all the way around. He ran over 170 yards on the ground, and had a big catch out of the backfield for a first down. He's really turning himself into a complete back with his pass blocking abilities and his ability to catch the football out of the backfield. Honestly, the only real problem was that he just didn't get the ball enough. The 28 carries is really deceptive when showing how we used him, because so many of those carries came very late when we were running the clock.

Cory Reamer had a career day, easily his best day in crimson. He looked a lot better at strongside linebacker, and he was a special teams standout with two huge plays. Likewise, Kareem Jackson had easily his best day to date. He looked like a legitimate shutdown corner yesterday, and that is the best performance we've had from a corner in ages.

Robby Green is getting almost no publicity, but he is doing an outstanding job at safety. He forced a turnover on a well-timed safety blitz, and he continues to have a knack forcing big incompletions downfield by ripping the ball out. He isn't getting much attention, but he is playing a lot of snaps and is making some big plays. He has quickly turned into a fine player. Glad we have him for three more years.

Is there a more underrated player in the conference than Lorenzo Washington? He starts on a defense where the starter designation alone more than justifies your plate at the table, and he's playing damn well. He's tough against the run, and he's probably our most underrated pass rusher. He was just punishing Ole Miss offensive linemen yesterday. You've got to love Lo', no doubt about it. He spurned in-state Georgia for us way back in 2004, barely eight months after the Mike Price strip club fiasco, fought all through the Shula era, overcame injuries, played out of position in 2007, watched himself become demoted to a back-up with the rise of Terrence Cody, and somehow overcame it all. The young man bleeds crimson, simply put, and someone should recognize what he has done. At the very least, I bet he has some NFL scouts watching.

Give credit to our defense, Ole Miss did everything they could to get McCluster involved, and we made him a total non-factor. Nine touches for 37 yards and a big fumble. Goodness.

Jevan Snead yesterday... 11-34 for 140 yards, 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, sacked twice. That's a completion percentage of only 32%, averaging 4.11 yards per attempt, and a 43.4 QB rating. I know Snead is overrated, like I've said for ages, but still... that is one damn fine defense. He isn't anywhere near that bad.

I hated the fake punt call. Not because of the ball, but because we absolutely wasted a good, converted fake punt. You pick up a big fake punt, and four plays later Fitzgerald is punting it out of the back of the end zone. It was a huge risk that basically got us nothing. Hate to see that.

The Trent Richardson fumble late was disappointing, but I'm not complaining. It was a good strip by the Ole Miss defender, and in all fairness it was a good run too. He's played fine at tailback this year, and he'll overcome it. Besides, the kid can definitely pass block, always a rarity for a true freshman, and he may very well be our best player on the kick coverage unit. He blows people up left and right.

After the early drop, Julio played very well. The production wasn't there, but again it wasn't his fault. He faced double coverage all day, and most of the throws in his direction were just terrible decisions by McElroy. Besides, he got hosed on at least one pass interference call. He's not 100%, but he's still unreal good.

Emmanuel Stephens played a fine game for Ole Miss today. We couldn't block him off the edge. And he's a back-up, which ought to tell you how good the rest of the Ole Miss defensive end rotation is. Thank goodness he's a senior.

Speaking of senior Ole Miss defensive ends, thank God Greg Hardy is finally gone. After three years, our long crimson nightmare is finally over. And the scary thing is, he's that tough to stop and clearly not 100%. If he ever gets completely healthy, he'll fill a graveyard with quarterbacks.

Lots of odd stuff today from 'Bama, play-calling aside. Why was there so little Terrence Cody? He was there, and he played damn well when he was in, but he barely played. He generally wasn't even in the game in obvious run situations, which is his specialty. I have no clue there. And what about Roy Upchurch, where was he? As much as we threw the ball, you would think he would get some time considering he is our best pass blocking back and our best receiver out of the backfield, but he never got off the bench. All in all, lots of odd stuff in Oxford.

Colin Peek... great catch early, but it went south quickly. He dropped a big touchdown pass, and cost us about 50 yards of field position on a holding on an Arenas' kick return. He's played great at times, but poorly at times too. If nothing else, he leads the team with dropped touchdown passes with three.

We are the kinds of pre-snap penalties on offense. I'm serious, we ought to get a trophy created for ourselves. Nothing gets you beat like pre-snap penalties on offense, and we are addicted to them.

Along those same lines, the red zone efficiency is terrible. Or better yet, I should say that red zone efficiency is decent. We do fine inside the 20, it's inside the 10 that we decide we're going to do everything in our power to keep from getting in the end zone.

P.J. Fitzgerald has looked much better this year on the whole, but he is still killing us with his inability to pin teams up deep. He's the king of hitting a 48-yard punt from the opponent 42-yard line. Unless Fitzgerald can do a lot better soon in this regard, we need to get a lot more aggressive in terms of going for it on fourth down. These punts netting 15 or 20 yards are killing us.

Big day from Leigh Tiffin today. I'm traditionally a big critic of Tiffin -- and I think rightly so -- but he did a good job today. He went 5-5 today, and while several weren't pretty, they got the job done. He came up big today, and if he had struggled, we would have been in a world of hurt. Kudos, Leigh.

Dear Pat Patterson and Bobby Massie, do you still feel good about picking Ole Miss? I hope you now understand why five-star recruits generally don't choose schools that haven't won their conference since the week after JFK got shot.

And speaking of Ole Miss' future, this team is going to be an absolute shell of its current self when it returns to Tuscaloosa next year. Snead returns, but from my count they are going to lose something like 14 starters. Jerry, Hodge, McCluster, Tillman, Hardy, Trahan, Green, Vaughn, and Lewis will all be gone, plus a lot of other starters on the offensive line. Anything can happen in any game, of course, but we've beat Ole Miss six straight years now, and this was clearly their best chance to get us for quite a few years. The Orgeron talent is quickly going away, and the recruiting hasn't been at a high enough level to not have a drop-off in the coming years. This was this their year -- both for beating us, and getting to Atlanta -- and we roughed 'em up good.

All in all, we still haven't played a complete game to yet. We're beating ourselves with dumb penalties, poor decision-making, and leaving points on the board. Nevertheless, we legitimately look this good even when not firing on all cylinders? All you can say is that we are one hell of a team, period. And if we ever can truly get it all together, we are absolutely going to smoke people.

Poll Question: Who is the Most Improved Player of 2009?

Todd — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

Certainly a little early for this since a whole season's body of work would probably tell us a lot more, but five weeks into the season we've seen some guys really step their game up from previous seasons and we'd like to highlight them a little bit.

Darius Hanks - WR

We've heard for so long now how Darius Hanks was going to be one of the next great wide receivers at Alabama, just you wait. And wait we did as Hanks struggled to turn his practice field heroics into game day production. Considered a "starter" in the slot during 2008's spring camp, Hanks effectively disappeared with various injury concerns before he could really get on the field. Though he was finally able to work his way onto the field near the end of the season, he only played in five games, grabbing eight passes for 88 yards with a long of 18 yards. So far this year he's played in every single game and has already topped last year's production with 9 catches for 160 yards and a TD while effectively becoming our most consistent and productive true receiver (though Ingram and Peek have more receptions with 14 a piece, Hanks is tied with Julio for most receptions by a receiver and leads all receivers in yardage).

Mark Ingram - RB

After Ingram's monster true freshman season it seems a little strange to think of him as a candidate for most improved, but let's face it, Ingram was behind Coffee all last year for a reason. As mean as he was between the tackles, he still struggled with following his blocks and finding the hole and would often try to bounce it outside, usually into the arms of a waiting linebacker or safety. He also struggled at times with pass protection, tipping our hand offensively when he was on the field since opposing DCs knew Ingram was out there to run and run alone. This season, though, Ingram has become a complete back, pass protecting like a true veteran, catching the ball well out of the backfield (in fact, his three TD receptions lead the team) and, most importantly, showing the kind of patience and maturity a running back needs to allow plays to develop and to hit the hole as it opens instead of trying to break everything wide.

Marquis Maze - WR

Finally, the speedy deep threat we've all been salivating over and a QB that can get him the ball. Maze, like Hanks, is one of those kids that always sounded like he was going to be a world beater from the practice reports but was never really able to show it on Saturday. So far this season, he's finally flashing the kind of play making ability we all suspected he was capable of. Though his two memorable TDs from last season were fun to watch, he only got into seven games and caught 11 passes while he's already grabbed 8 in four games this year and has two TDs already as well. Though he is our best deep threat so far, he's also shown good ability to get open undernearth instead of just burning DBs with his speed downfield.

Eryk Anders - LB

This kid gets my vote, hands down. Anders has gone from being a virtual no name (Rivals didn't have him ranked at all, while Scout gave him a single star) to a starting linebacker position on an elite SEC defense. Though he played sparingly in '06 and '07 (mostly on special teams and as a reserve), he came out of nowhere in 2008 to be our best pass rusher from the linebacker position and was frequently on the field on 3rd down. In 2009, he's solified himself as a true every down Jack linebacker despite his relatively small size and has proven versatile enough to play out in space as an outside linebacker after Dont'a Hightower's unfortunate injury shuffled the linebackers around. He's currently fourth on the team in tackles with 22, and his 2.5 sacks is 3rd behind Marcell Dareus (3.5) and Javier Arenas (3.0), while he's also responsible for 5.5 tackles for loss (leads the team), an INT, a pass breakup, a forced fumble, and 4 quarterback hurries.

Marquis Johnson - CB

I'm sure this pick will go over well. Despite the many criticisms that Johnson has gotten in the comments section of this blog, he has locked down his role as our third corner and, considering we've played so much in the nickel with Arenas at Star, has effectively been a starter on the outside this year while B.J. Scott (whom Saban has said he expects big things from in the future) is looking at a redshirt and Dre Kirkpatrick is relegated to special teams and mop up duty. If we had done a poll before the season as to who should be the third CB, Johnson, Scott, or Kirkpatrick, I could guarantee you that y'all would have voted for Kirkpatrick or Scott in a landslide. Instead, the guys that are getting paid the big bucks to evaluate talent and put the best players on the field have Johnson out there every Saturday instead.

Mark Barron - SS

Though Barron saw a lot of action last season, he generally struggled with grasping his role on the defense after being asked to do too much, a fact that Saban himself admitted earlier in the year. Now that Barron is a stong safety and a strong safety only (he's started all five games there this season despite Robby Green's push for a start during the spring), he's blossomed into one of our better defenders. Barron is second on the team in tackles with 28 (behind Rolando McClain's 35), his two interceptions and 6 passes defended lead the team, and his four pass breakups are behind only Kareem Jackson's five.

Javier Arenas - CB/KR

Another strange one to consider "improved" after turning into one of the best corners in the SEC last season on top of being a true playmaker as a kick return, Arenas continues to develop in both roles in 2009. As a DB, Arenas has spent a lot of time at Star so far this year as we've stayed in a 3-3-5ish nickel look against the many spread teams we've faced. With teams routinely throwing away from him, we've utilized him in different ways, and surprisingly his 3 sacks are second on the team behind Marcell Dareus, while he's third on the team in total tackles with 26.

As a kick returner, he's shown better patience and maturity while fielding kicks. Instead of catching any and everything that came his way and trying to break it (which resulted in some great returns last year, no doubt, but also some serious frustaration fumble wise), he's picking his battles a little more carefully. Though he has yet to take one back for a score yet, he's still managed to set up the offense on several occasions with great run backs.

P.J. Fitzgerald - P

Last but not least, young Fitzgerald continues his trend of improvement this year with an average of 42.3 yards, and improvement over his 41.1 yard average last year and the dreadful 38.7 in 2007.

Poll

Who is the most improved player of 2009?

Darius Hanks

127 votes

Mark Ingram

68 votes

Marquis Maze

99 votes

Eryk Anders

144 votes

Marquis Johnson

18 votes

Mark Barron

129 votes

Javier Arenas

9 votes

P.J. Fitzgerald

44 votes

638 votes | Poll has closed

Arkansas Penalties Breakdown

outsidethesidelines — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 01:32:38 -0000

After the penalties largely went away in our thumping of North Texas, unfortunately they were back when the Hogs came to Tuscaloosa to the tune of seven penalties for 60 yards. Let's take a closer look at all of the penalties that occurred, and how they impacted the Tide this past Saturday.

Delay of game penalty on the punt team on a 4th and 5 at the Arkansas 46-yard line. This came at the end of the Tide's first possession when we were lining up to punt. The five yard penalty moved the ball back to the Alabama 49-yard line, but ultimately the penalty turned out to be meaningless. Even after being moved five yards further back, P.J. Fitzgerald's punt still sailed into the end zone, and Arkansas started their ensuing possession on their own 20-yard line.

Pass interference penalty on Javier Arenas on a 3rd and 7 for the Hogs late in the first quarter. This was an incomplete pass and would have forced an Arkansas punt from their own 10-yard line. Instead, it was a close call that went in the Hog's direction, and it gave them new life with a first down at the Arkansas 21. The Tide would get the stop immediately thereafter, but a conversion on a fake punt gave them yet another new life. Arkansas ultimately drove it all the way to the Alabama 30, but Javier Arenas redeemed himself and largely negated the penalty by getting Ryan Mallett on a sack that ended the drive. Arenas called for a fair catch at the Alabama 14-yard line.

False start penalty on Drew Davis on a 2nd and 9 from the Alabama 15-yard line, immediately following the aforementioned stop of Arkansas. This continued a long string of pre-snap penalties on the right side of the offensive line, but ultimately it turned out to be harmless. It created a 2nd and 14, but Mark Ingram picked up the first down on the very next play. Four play later, Trent Richardson went 50+ yards over right end to put the Tide up 7-0.

Block in the back penalty on Cory Reamer during Javier Arenas' punt return with approximately 6:00 remaining in the second quarter. The penalty erased a 13-yard return by Arenas that would have given the ball on the Alabama 43-yard line. With the penalty, 'Bama was moved back to our 33-yard line, and we went three and out after we narrowly avoided an interception on a forced pass by Greg McElroy to Julio Jones on third and four.

Block in the back penalty on Cory Reamer during Javier Arenas' punt return immediately after the preceding block in the back penalty. This one was the really costly one, as it wiped out a very long return by Arenas that would have had Alabama knocking on the Arkansas goal line. The first block in the back on Reamer was a solid call, but this one was a bit more tacky. Reamer barely got into the back of the Arkansas defender, and it was a defender who would have been unlikely to get to Arenas at any rate. At any rate, this penalty ultimately cost the Tide points, and combined with the next penalty, it ended the Tide's chances of making this a three-possession game at halftime.

False start penalty on James Carpenter on a 4th and inches play from the Arkansas 35-yard line. This one was particularly costly, and annoying, because it forced the Tide to punt the football with approximately 90 seconds remaining, and also because Carpenter -- who flinched because of a slight movement by the Arkansas defensive end -- was the last person who should have been jumping. The penalty forced a Tide punt, and Fitzgerald sailed another one into the end zone. Arkansas ran a play straight into the line, thus ending the half, and the Tide went into halftime with a 14-0 lead.

Kick catching interference on Dre Kirkpatrick on the Alabama punt that immediately followed our three and out to start the second half. This one was a clear penalty on Kirkpatrick, and wasn't a controversial call at all. Kirkpatrick did a great job of playing gunner on special teams, but he just got there a split second too soon on this one. The Hogs would have gotten the ball at their own 30, but the penalty gave it to them at their own 45. And it proved fairly costly, too, as five plays later the Hogs scored their only points of the game when Ryan Mallett hit Greg Childs on an 18-yard touchdown pass after Kareem Jackson found himself caught in no-man's land.

All in all, the penalties did return, but thankfully they didn't cost us in this game. Some of the penalties were meaningless, and while a couple of them did legitimately cost us some points, this game was a glorified blowout in which they didn't make any major impact. At most, they probably turned a potential 38-0 game into a 35-7 game, so it was largely a meaningless result one way or the other. Moving forward, though, if some of these penalties occur in a closer game, we might not get so lucky.

The Virginia Tech Preview: Special Teams

outsidethesidelines — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:00:20 -0000

Editor's Note: This is the third installment in a four-piece series that will give an in-depth preview of the individual unit match-ups, as well as a special teams preview, and finally ending on Friday with a final wrap-up before the two teams face off on Saturday night.

Part 1: Tide Offense v. Hokie Defense

Part 2: Tide Defense v. Hokie Offense

"Beamerball." You've heard of it, and so has anybody who even remotely follows college football. Aside from arguably the Vick brothers, the general fan is probably more familiar with "Beamerball" than any other specific aspect of the Virginia Tech football program. That is what is hyped most with regard to the Hokies, and you cannot sit down and watch a Virginia Tech football game without it being mentioned at least eight or ten times throughout the course of the broadcast.

But that's all public conception and TV talking heads, of all of which is completely irrelevant when two teams take to the playing field. The more relevant inquiry is this: What actually is "Beamerball," just how important is special teams to begin with, what all constitutes good special teams play, and at any rate does the actual production justify the hype for the Hokies' special teams unit?

For the first question, the ever-amusing Urban Dictionary gives the main definition of "Beamerball" as, "A brand of football pioneered by Frank Beamer and the Hokies emphasizing special teams. A second, more detailed definition of the term is perhaps a bit more insightful, "A brand of football played by the Virginia Tech Hokies, and named after long-time (1987 - present) head coach and Tech alumnus Frank Beamer. Primarily known for profilic kick- and punt-blocking, Beamerball encompasses the idea that the team can produce points (and prevent opponents' points) at any time, from any point on the football field." Bottom line, broadly put Beamerball is about playing special teams at a high level, but specifically speaking it's all about the Hokies' knack for blocking kicks and punts.

Precisely measuring the importance of special teams can be a difficult thing to do, but it is nevertheless something that can be accomplished with a certain degree of intelligence and effort. The statistical analysis experts over at Football Outsiders, for example, used their DVOA metric and came to the ultimate conclusion that the total quality of an NFL team is three parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams. In other words, special teams comprises 1/7th of overall team quality, and frankly I see no reason why that conclusion wouldn't be applicable to college football as well. Though there may be three phases to the game, not all three phases have the same value, and considering that special teams snaps are only a relatively small portion of the game (compared to offensive and defensive snaps), it comes as no surprise that the total value of having a good special teams unit will be lower than that of a good offense or a good defense. Special teams play is highly important, no doubt there, but ultimately it is the quality of your offense and your defense that will be the two major driving forces in determining just how good your team really is. A good special teams unit can give you a slight edge, one that can really pay off in close games, but a team with good special teams, put together with bad offense and defense, is in for a very long year, much worse than what you would be if you had a good offense or a good defense and a poor special teams unit. Clearly, special teams, while important, is not as important as either offense or defense.

And that brings us to our third question, exactly what constitutes good special teams play to begin with? The true core concept of Beamerball is really blocking kicks and punts (at least the public conception of it, anyway), but is that really the totality of good special teams play? As any football observer worth his salt could tell you, of course not. "Special teams" is a nice all-encompassing term, but it really describes a lot of more specialized skills and abilities that are often times unrelated. Certainly the ability to block kicks and punts is a part of that, but it's only a couple of pieces in a rather large puzzle. If you think deeper on the subject, you can come up with about 30 different components that, if done well in totality, comprise good special teams play. The following is not an all-inclusive list, instead it's all the individual components -- in a bit of an ode to the late George Carlin and his seven dirty words bit -- I could think of in one short sitting:

Kick-off length
Kick-off location and positioning
Kick-off hang time
Kick-off return defense
Onside kick placement
Onside kick recover ability (on both sides)
Deep snapping on punts
Punt protection
Quickness of punter's release
Punt length
Punt location and positioning
Punt hang time
Punt return defense
Punt blocking abilities
Blocking for the punt returner
The punt returner's actual return abilities with ball in hand
The punt returner's ability to safely catch the punt
The punt returner's decision making ability on when to call for a fair catch and let the punt bounce, or when to take a kneel on a kick-off
Deep snapping on field goals
Quality holding by the holder
Timing between the snapper, holder, and kicker
Blocking by the field goal protection unit
Ability of the kicker to elevate the ball over the line to avoid a block
Kicking power of the kicker
Kicking accuracy of the kicker
Field goal blocking abilities
Coaches' ability in making correct decisions with regard to utilizing special teams units
Ability to successfully take wind and other playing conditions into account on all kicks
Ability to avoid special teams penalties (clipping, roughing, kicks out of bounds, etc.)

And, again, collectively all of those components in their sum is what constitutes good special teams play, regardless of how much attention gets paid to the blocked kicks and punts. Sure, blocked kicks and blocked punts are what makes the Sportscenter top ten plays, and it's those plays that get put on YouTube a million times with the obligatory crunk soundtrack, but at the end of the day those two things are really only a couple of about 30 different things you generally need to do well in order to play special teams at a high level. A team that can block kicks and punts at a high rate nevertheless still has poor special teams if they struggle to competently execute the majority of the aforementioned other components of good special teams play.

Furthermore, blocked kicks and blocked punts can tend to be a bit overrated because even with the best blocking units, these plays are nevertheless very rare. Take the Hokies last year, for example, they blocked two kicks and two punts, so four total blocks on the season. And that's over the course of a fourteen game season, so even for a team so highly regarded in terms of its kick blocking abilities, it's still a relatively rare occurrence. Do the math, you're talking about one blocked kick every three and a half games, or put in more real terms, about one blocked kick / punt a month. Again, even for a good kick blocking team, it's still a rare occurrence, and furthermore, just as with any other type of play, a blocked kick or a punt does not necessarily have a real impact on a game. Obviously it can at times, to be sure, but often times blocked kicks and punts come in games where you already have a big lead / big deficit or in games where you were likely to win / lose with relative ease regardless of whether or not you got the block (thus making the marginal value of the block itself practically zero).

With the previous two paragraphs in mind -- having the knowledge that good special teams play involves far more than just the ability to block kicks and punts, and also that blocked kicks / punts are a rarity even for the best block units -- let's get to the true question at hand: Just how good are the Hokies' special teams? Does the actual production of the unit justify the hype, or have we reached a point to where, to paraphrase John Ford, the legend has become fact, and now we just print the legend?

To closer analyze that question, let's take a look at how the Hokies fared nationally from 2004-2008 in five of the major special teams metrics: kick return yardage defense, punt return yardage defense, kickoff returns, punt returns, and net punting.

Kick Return Yardage Defense	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Actual	19.45	18.45	21.24	20.65	21.74
NCAA Rank	29th	13th	78th	61st	81st

Punt Return Yardage Defense	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Actual	12.42	7.74	8.15	12.78	9.41
NCAA Rank	103rd	44th	53rd	101st	56th

Kickoff Returns	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Actual	20.59	18.87	20.90	19.04	23.42
NCAA Rank	72nd	105th	48th	88th	15th

Punt Returns	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Actual	8.96	15.69	12.61	8.87	9.34
NCAA Rank	59th	6th	23rd	62nd	60th

Net Punting	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Actual	39.00	42.28	41.65	43.15	38.98
NCAA Rank	92nd	26th	45th	49th	82nd

And when you browse those rankings, suffice it to say, it's nothing overly impressive. Combined, this look yields us 25 individual snapshots in time telling us how the Hokies performed in particular special teams categories, and again you are not exactly blown away with the results. Of those 25 snapshots, they finished outside the top 40 nationally a full 20 times. Only one time in five years did they finish in the top ten nationally in any of these metrics. On the other hand, fifteen times they finished 50th and lower, and seven times they finished 80th or lower.

Now, in all fairness, those five metrics don't tell us all there is with regard to the overall quality of their special teams unit, and one thing left unmentioned is the high accuracy of the Virginia Tech field goal kickers in recent years (a key competitive advantage, to be sure). Nevertheless, even with that and their good kick / punt blocking units in mind, I do think it is fair to say in this situation that the legend -- as widely accepted as it may be -- is somewhat unsupported by the facts. To be sure, I do think the Virginia Tech special teams unit as a whole is a pretty good one, but with that said we will face several pretty good special teams units in 2009, some of which may be better than what we see from Tech, and frankly I see no objective reason for 'Bama fans to be any more concerned over special teams in this particular game than they are for the typical big-time game against a high quality opponent.

With all of that covered, let's turn to some of the more individual players you will see in this game.

In the Hokies kicking game, the highly effective Dustin Keys does not return, but don't expect the Hokies to have any real trouble with regard to placekicking. Fifth year senior Matt Waldron will take over the job, and he looks to make the transition a smooth one. He had a strong spring, and from what I can tell he has hit basically every kick he has attempted in scrimmage work this Fall, so don't be expecting any drop-off in the Hokie kicking game Saturday night. Leigh Tiffin, of course, a senior in his right, returns for the Tide, and in terms of the entire season, I imagine he will continue his track record of being a pretty good, yet consistently inconsistent, kicker. Nevertheless, I expect he should do pretty well in the Georgia Dome too. Kicking indoors gives a major competitive advantage to a kicker -- no wind whatsoever, no rain, and always good footing -- that results in a higher percentage of field goal attempts being converted, so expect both kickers to take advantage of that Saturday night. Don't forget, Tiffin hit a 54-yarder in this game a year ago. Barring the random shank -- or Leigh Tiffin deciding to give one of his blockers a rectal probe with one of his kicks like he did last year on the final play in regulation against LSU -- expect both kickers to have pretty good nights.

And addressing the obligatory punt / kick blocking units, in all fairness we do need to keep an eye on the Hokies. Frank Beamer said recently that he thought this punt blocking unit had the potential to be the best he's ever had at Virginia Tech, and while I wouldn't put a lot of stock in a quote like that if it came from one of the more mouthy coaches like Houston Nutt or Les Miles, Beamer tends to be quite open and honest when dealing with the media, and only rarely does he have the random bouts of diarrhea of the mouth that plague so many of his other fellow head coaches. If he said it, I believe he legitimately means it, and given the long, rangy players that he has on the punt blocking line -- Logan Thomas (6'6), Marcus Davis (6'4), Kam Chancellor (6'4) and Xavier Boyce (6'4) -- I can certainly see where that statement is coming from. Of course, though, the Alabama blocking unit looks pretty good too, and we had some success blocking punts and kicks as well in 2008. Furthermore, given the sheer athleticism that we can put on those units, if we really come after a kick or a punt, we probably have just about as good of a chance as anyone else of ultimately scoring the block.

Fortunately for the Tide, though, we've been a good team in terms of protecting punts and kicks the past couple of years. Brian Selman has spent the last two years at the Tide's deep snapper, and with 262 career snaps he has yet to botch one. Furthermore, P.J. Fitzgerald has launched 180 punts in the last three years as 'Bama's starting punter, and only one has been blocked. Likewise, we've largely had the same type of protection when it comes to placekicking with Leigh Tiffin as well. All told, Tiffin has attempted 76 field goals in his career at Alabama, with only two being blocked. Along those same lines, of the 96 extra points, only one of them has been blocked, so in the aggregate he's only had three blocks on 192 total attempts (i.e. only about 1.5% of the time are his kicks blocked).

Hopefully helpful for the Tide will also be its experience at the critical special teams positions, in particular the kicker, the punter, the deep snapper, the holder, and the up-back who makes the protection calls when the punting unit goes on the field. Those players this year consist of Leigh Tiffin, P.J. Fitzgerald, Brian Selman, and Cory Reamer, all of which are seniors. And in particular pay close attention to Reamer when the Alabama punting team goes on the field. It's his responsibility to make sure everyone is lined up right and that everything the Hokies bring at the Tide -- and rest assured, they will probably have a couple of tricks up their sleeve -- is properly accounted for. It should be comforting to us all that such a critical position is being manned by a heady, fifth-year senior. On the other side of the ball, though, Tech punter Brent Bowden is a senior in his own right, and deep snapper Collin Carroll was good enough to earn a scholarship based solely on his snapping abilities, so don't expect the Hokies to be giving us any freebies either.

The return game, though, is where things could get really interesting. Tech's leading punt returner from a year ago, Macho Harris, is now in the NFL, and redshirt freshman Ryan Williams has taken over as the Hokies deep man. Admittedly, I think Williams is a bit of an airhead, but there's no questioning that he has high-end athletic ability, as he showed a few days back in a Tech scrimmage where he took a punt back 82 yards for a score. I don't know how his decision making will be, but he will be a threat with the ball in his hands. Fortunately, though, the good news for Alabama is that with the athletes we have on special teams, we should field both a good kick and punt coverage unit, and for all of the hype with regard to their punt blocking abilities, as we showed earlier, the Hokies don't exactly have a great track record in terms of production in the punt return game. Hopefully the Tide's coverage units can get the job done.

The real one to watch, however, is the Tide's Javier Arenas. A returner of almost legendary proportions, Arenas is at the least in the discussion for the best returner in the country, and this Tide follower cannot truthfully say he would trade him for any other returner in the country. His decision-making abilities can be frustrating at times, and that could lead to a big turnover for the Hokies (hopefully not, and hopefully he has improved that shortcoming in the offseason as I'm sure it has been stressed), but if Arenas gets the ball in his hands, very big things could happen. As the statistics showed us earlier, Virginia Tech has really struggled the past few years in both punt and kick return defense -- not to mention net punting -- so if Arenas gets the ball in his hands, don't be surprised if he breaks one. And also, don't be surprised if the Hokie coaching staff just avoids punting to Arenas all together. This is a good staff, and punting away from Arenas was the right decision for much of last year (just ask Sylvester Croom). Don't be surprised if the Hokie coaching staff opts to eliminate even the possibility of a big return by Arenas from the outset.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.