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Post-Spring Previews: Arkansas Razorbacks

Gamecock Man — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:51:49 -0000

4 months ago: Arkansas football coach Bobby Petrino speaks to the media during a news conference at the SEC Media Days in Hoover, Ala. on Wednesday, July 22, 2009 (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

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After traveling to Knoxville to take on the Vols, the Gamecocks head to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas is another team looking to rebound from a shaky 2008. Luckily, momentum is in their favor. After playing poorly early in the season--see the close wins over cupcakes and absolutely ugly blowout losses to elite opponents--the Hogs played well to close out 2008. Moreover, they should only improve with a year in Bobby Petrino's system under their belts. Petrino may be one of the game's true professional slimeballs, but he's also a fantastic coach that came close to getting Louisville to the national title game. To understand the gravity of that accomplishment, take a look at what has happened there now that Petrino is gone. Petrino's offense was undoubtedly hampered last year with Casey Dick--an average quarterback at best--under center. However, this year he has Ryan Mallett taking over quarterbacking duties. Mallett will make mistakes at times, but he'll also be brilliant at times. The tools are in place for this to be a prolific Arkansas offense. While they probably won't win more than seven or eight because of Mallett's youth and a suspect defense, this is a team that will undoubtedly make for exciting football and perhaps an upset of one of the conference's big-name teams.

Let's see how we matchup against them.

Offense

The Hogs run Bobby Petrino's power spread, a modified pro-style attack. Often mischaracterized as a coach that likes to air it out, Petrino believes being able to run the ball is just as important as being able to go long. To this end, Petrino likes to move back and forth between spread formations and power-I formations. The spread formations usually allow him to get the ball to his receivers on the outside, whereas the power-I allows him to run the ball down hill. Petrino likes to throw deep to the tight ends out of the I, as well. His offense is also notable for running similar plays out of multiple formations, which I'd imagine is confusing for defenses.

Quarterback

After sitting out for a year after transferring from Michigan, highly recruited Ryan Mallett takes over under center for the Hogs. Mallett is a prototypical pro-style quarterback: he's big, tall, and can throw the ball a mile. Mallett should thrive in Petrino's system, where his vision and arm will give him lots of advantages. Mallett is somewhat inexperienced and may show it at times. However, while this is Mallett's first year playing at Arkansas and he can thus be expected to make some mistakes, it's not like he's a freshman. He had significant experience playing at Michigan in his freshman year and has had a year to learn Petrino's offense since then. His one liability other than his relative inexperience is that he's kind of slow because of his size. That could pose problems if he doesn't get great protection, which is a distinct possiblity. Overall, though, he looks to be poised for a big season throwing the ball.

We've yet to really see what Mallett can do, whereas we've at least seen Garcia play well in spurts, so I can't give Mallett the advantage here. I'm tempted to, though. Mallett is good and he will thrive throwing to a talented group of receivers in Bobby Petrino's system. Plus, Garcia frankly has almost just as much to prove at this point as Mallett. It will be interesting to see what kind of year these two are having when this game rolls around in November.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

The Hogs return one of the SEC's best tailbacks in senior Michael Smith. Smith, who spent his first two seasons in the shadow of Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, broke out last year for over 1000 yards. Although small, Smith is a tough runner. His size, though, makes him vulnerable to injury, as the Hogs saw late last season. They'll look to lighten his load this year. The Hogs will look at a host of players in the rotation, although some injuries that occurred during the spring may limit some of those players' effectiveness. The primary backup role may, in fact, go to highly touted freshman Ronnie Wingo, Jr., one of the Hogs' prize recruits and a guy we'll probably hear a lot more of after Smith graduates.

I call this a slight advantage for Arkansas. We have more experienced depth than the Hogs at this position, and depth has to be a concern for the Hogs right now. However, Arky does have some nice young players that stack up well against most SEC teams, and Smith pushes the balance in their favor.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Arkansas returns an experienced group of talented receivers that could be poised to put up big numbers if Mallet and offensive line step up. The big name in the group is tight end D. J. Williams, who is one of the nation's best ends. Williams has and will continue to thrive in Petrino's offense, which frequently utilizes the tight end as a long-yardage passing option from what look like power-running formations. Lucas Miller, Jarius Wright, London Crawford and others fill out what should be a very effective group.

I give Arkansas another slight advantage here. I think our receivers have the potential to be as good as this group, but they have to prove it, first.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Offensive Line

Here's where things get a little murky for what has the potential to be a great Arkansas offense. Last year's line had lots of trouble with both pass protection and run blocking. However, pass protection was the biggest problem, with the Hogs giving up a whopping 46 sacks. If problems continue this year, they may keep the Hogs from having the kind of year offensively they're otherwise capable of having. The fact that Ryan Mallett is hardly the kind of quarterback that can evade sacks with his feet makes protecting him all the more important.

This year's more experienced unit should be better, but they'll really need to be a lot better for the Hogs to truly live up to their potential on offense. Arkansas returns three starters as well as one player that started in 2007 but redshirted last year. It's hard to say who will play where; expect a lot of shifting around on this unit throughout the year, although Ray Dominguez looks to be the guy at the important left tackle position. The reserves are mostly inexperienced. All in all, there are still a lot of question marks here.

I'm going to call this a slight advantage for Carolina. Neither team was good up front last year and both have lots to prove, but we return a bit more experience and should start playing well sooner.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Let's look at the defenses after the jump.

Defense

To put it simply, the Hogs had a bad defense last year. Arky finished at or near the bottom of the SEC in most major categories. To put things into perspective, we managed to score 34 points against them. Experienced defensive coordinator Willy Robinson must get better play out of this group if Arkansas is to contend in the West.

Defensive Line

The Hogs' front four--which returns four starters--is led by tackle Malcolm Sheppard, who was second in the conference in tackles for loss a year ago. Adrian Davis, Zach Stadther, Lavunce Askew and Alfred Davis should round out the bulk of the rotation, although some newcomers may see time as well. This unit wasn't very good against the run last year and has focused on bulking up this offseason. I expect better production from them, but this may still be a team that good teams can run against fairly easily.

I give us a slight advantage here. There's no reason that our line can't be one of the best in the SEC this year, while Arkansas simply has lots to prove despite its experience.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

This is another fairly experienced group. Senior Wendel Davis is perhaps the defense's overall leader. Davis missed the first part of last season, and when he returned, the defense clearly improved. Freddy Burton and Jerry Franklin round out the group. This should be another improved unit, but depth may be an issue here.

I give us a slight advantage here. Again, Arkansas has a lot to prove, whereas we have one of the league's better units with Eric Norwood and Rodney Paulk leading the way and a talented group of underclassmen providing depth.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

Secondary is perhaps the biggest cause for concern for this Arkansas defense. The most talented players just might be five-star freshman corner Darius Winton and highly touted JUCO transfer safety Rudell Crim. Both will push for playing time, as the returning starters all struggled last year. Corners Ramon Broadway and Isaac Madison have experience, but neither exactly instills fear in opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Safeties Elton Ford and Jerico Nelson also return with experience, but Ford will likely have to fight to keep Crim away from his job.

I call this a push. Both teams have some talented players but will have to rely on freshmen and must worry about depth problems. It's worth point out here that our secondary versus Bobby Petrino's offense is a cause for concern.

Verdict: Push

Special Teams

Kicker Alex Tejada struggled mightily last year after a solid 2007. The Hogs hope he can regain his old form. The Hogs had trouble with some of their return units last year, but should be better this year, especially with Petrino's mentor and former Michigan State coach John L. Smith taking over the special teams.

I'll call this a push. Arkansas doesn't have a reliable kicker at this point, while we don't even know who ours will be quite yet. Punting should be OK for both teams. Both teams look to have good kick return games but will need to figure out punt returns. Both should have decent coverage units. All in all it's hard to make a call right now on which team should have better units.

Verdict: Push

Head Coaches

As I said at the beginning of this preview, I think Bobby Petrino is one of the best coaches in the game. He almost won a national title at Louisville, for goodness's sake. The last two years haven't been nice to the guy, but let's face it: he wasn't exactly playing with a stacked deck last year or in 2007 in Atlanta. He has more pieces in place this year, and it should show with an extra couple of wins. I expect the team will continue to get better over the next few years and will regularly compete with Alabama and LSU in the West.

I'll give Arkansas a slight advantage here. Petrino may not have as many conference titles as Spurrier, but he has been relevant more recently.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Overall

Although their strengths are somewhat different, in a lot of ways these are fairly evenly matched teams. Arkansas should have a slightly better offense and we should have a slightly better defense, but the gaps aren't that large. My general impression is that this will be one of the higher scoring games of the year for us; Arkansas's offense is capable of putting up poitns against anybody, and we're capable of putting up points against their defense. Unfotunatley, if the game does become a shootout, I'll have to give the advantage to Petrino and Arkansas. To make matters worse, the game is in Fayetteville, and the atmosphere will likely be raucous if Arky is still in the running for a Western Division crown. If we're to win, we'll have to counter these Arkansas advantages by putting lots of pressure on Mallett, getting some sacks, and hopefully forcing a couple of game-changing turnovers. That kind of performance can't be taken for granted, though, and I have a feeling we'll lose this one.

Predict: seven-point Arkansas victory

Poll

The Arkansas game will result in a...

Blowout Carolina victory

3 votes

Close Carolina victory

27 votes

Close Arkansas victory

104 votes

Blowout Arkansas victory

79 votes

213 votes | Poll has closed

Big Games On the Schedule, Part 5, 11/28 Arkansas

Richard Pittman — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:55:46 -0000

via assets.nydailynews.com

Hehe.. assets.

Inner Butthead is now purged. We move along. The last "big game" on the schedule is the last game on the schedule. The Arkansas Razorbacks were one of the worst teams not only in the conference but in all of FBS football at the beginning of last year, barely surviving against FCS opponents Western Illinois and UL-Monroe, beating both in close, hard-fought, not-decided-until-the-final-moments games. They were then beaten to a bloody mess by Alabama, Texas, and Florida.

But by the Florida game, they were showing signs of life. The game was reasonably close going into the 4th quarter. Alright, 17-7 is not exactly a nail-biter but it's not terrible. A bad 4th quarter turned a respectable showing into a 38-7 drubbing, but by this time running back Michael Smith had emerged as one of the very best runners in the conference despite being a tiny 5'7" 175#. A very young team that was playing a lot of freshmen was starting to get better.

From this point on, Arkansas was a legitimate team. They would still have some stumbles along the way, losing to Mississippi State and Kentucky (the loss to Kentucky occurred in a game in which Michael Smith played very little due to injury), but they would beat Auburn and Tulsa and put a scare into Ole Miss. They would, of course, beat LSU to close out their season.

The 2009 Arkansas Razorbacks promise to be a good team, building on what they accomplished towards the end of last year. They are almost everyone's pick to be an SEC dark horse, so much so that it is really hard to say they're actually a dark horse rather than just a good team.

via www.hogcountryonline.com

If you are paying any attention at all to Arkansas, you know a bit about Ryan Mallett. He is the former big-time recruit from Texas who originally signed with Michigan and played one year there, eventually earning the starting job, albeit on a team that failed to reach a bowl game. After reports of homesickness trickled out early in his stay there and after Rich Rodriguez was hired, Mallett decided to bolt and move closer to home to Arkansas, where he was given a hero's welcome by newly hired head coach Bobby Petrino, who was quite understandably trying to find the heir apparent to Casey Dick.

Mallett is a big (6'7") strong-armed quarterback who is not likely to beat you with his legs. He is going to be a ball-distributor, which is perfect for the Petrino offensive philosophy. In fact, he may be the best quarterback talent that Petrino has ever coached.

He'll have a few targets to pass to. DJ Williams was one of the most productive receivers in the league last year as sort of a tight end/wide receiver hybrid. The rest of the receiver corps is a bit undersized, but productive. London Crawford is the biggest at 6'2" and the rest are below 6'0". They are small but quick receivers in the Tyrone Prothro mold.

If there's a weakness on offense, it will be on the line, where they struggled last year. Still, a young team gets better, and Bobby Petrino is an outstanding coach for whatever his personal failings may be.

Defensively, there are no big names there, but the unit made great strides towards the end of last year. Still, they were last in the league in scoring defense and total defense, and that will have to improve more than a little bit. A unit that ended up being surprisingly competent last year needs to find some difference-makers.

Look for Louisiana product Jerico Nelson to emerge as a very solid safety for this team. He's little, and for one reason or another the Tigers didn't really want him in the 2008 class, but he was an immediate contributor for Arkansas and could be an emerging star on this team.

Last year's game still leaves a bad taste in our mouths. Arkansas was a terrible defensive team, and in particular terrible against the run. Charles Scott should have been able to run wild on that team and get 6 yards a pop. Instead, he was mostly bottled up, averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. The problem was likely that the Tigers could not legitimately sell the pass as a big threat with true freshman Jordan Jefferson making his first start of his career and being used primarily in a running capacity until the end. It was a tough start to Jefferson's tenure as our starting quarterback and I'm sure he learned a lot from it.

Still, we were winning the game and on the verge of victory when our pass defense, pretty much a failure all year, did what it did best. It failed, giving up a long drive at the end, culminating in a 4th down pass to the end zone caught for a touchdown over Chris Hawkins, who was caught in one-on-one coverage. Even then we had a chance to win it at the end when we got good field position and needed only about 15 yards to have a legitimate shot at a game-winning field goal. A few ill-advised deep passes fell incomplete and we ended the game with a desperation field goal from the parking lot that did not make it.

This year, it's going to be a war. I suspect that by the end of the season both of these teams will be much better than they were at the end of last year. The game will also be on a Saturday night for the first time.. ever? Of course, since this is the last game of the season, this is the matchup we know the least about. It is the most likely to be affected by injuries or by players who improve over the course of the season. Right now, we wonder if Arkansas's run defense is going to improve from bad (notwithstanding their game against us) to OK or better. We wonder if LSU will have a good pass defense, and whether Arkansas will have more than one really good receiver.

This is the end of this little series. We will have more coverage later.

SEC 2009 // Hog Holdovers

cocknfire — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:00:54 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Ryan Mallett might not be the starting quarterback for Arkansas in 2009. And I just might start cheering for Clemson.

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If you're looking for one reason for the expectations of a rebound in Fayetteville this year, one reason is the lack of material your humble correspondent has for this post. Arkansas has eight returning starters on offense and nine on defense by the school's measure, ten by Phil Steele's ruler. There won't be many position battles to settle this fall.

One of those potential fights could be at quarterback, where Bobby Petrino has toyed with the idea of a competition between Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson, but is expected to name Mallett as his starter.

Let's humor him for a moment, though.

Arkansas "QB Competition"
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Ryan Mallett (2007, Michigan)	61	141	43.3	892	7	5	105.69
Tyler Wilson (2008, Arkansas)	11	22	50.0	69	1	2	73.16

You can see why there's so much skepticism about Petrino's notion of keeping the signal-caller position open in the fall. The rating is better -- in part because of the TD-to-INT ratio -- and the experience gap is significant. The only real strike against Mallett is the completion percentage, marred by outings like a 6-of-17 performance in relief during the Oregon game and an 11-of-36 day against Wisconsin.

There might be some controversy at WR as well, with the Hogs returning all five wideouts with double-digit catches. The downside of that? Only one of those receivers, Lucas Miller, broke 400 yards (490), none had more than two TD receptions, and only London Crawford (11) had more than seven starts.

The overall receptions leader, D.J. Williams (61 catches, 723 yards, 3 TDs), returns at TE. So does RB Michael Smith, who rushed for 1,072 yards and eight scores on 270 carries. Most of the offensive line comes back, though both guard spots could be filled by first-time starters.

Defense could be even more stable, according to the post-spring depth chart, which shows the front seven comprised entirely of returning starters. Included: DT Malcolm Sheppard, who led the team last year with 6.5 sacks. Leading tackler Jerry Franklin (87 stops) is back at LB. Then again, the Hogs allowed 170.8 rushing ypg last year, so take that as you will.

The mediocre pass defense will likely have to be overhauled, with two returning starters listed on the depth chart and only CB Isaac Madison as a starter. (The other, FS Elton Ford, is noted as being injured.) But CB Ramon Broadway, not listed as a returning starter but currently No. 1 at the other corner position, had 10 broken-up passes, six picks and 52 tackles (six for losses). Jerico Nelson, the likely starter at strong safety, is also solid.

UK vs. Arkansas: For the 'Cats, as "must win" as it gets

Ken Howlett — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 09:38:17 -0000

With Arkansas riding high off of their 25-22 upset road win over Auburn, UK is once again catching an opponent feeling good about themselves (South Carolina had just won in Oxford). Victories like that tend to build confidence and team unity, especially in a team as young as Arkansas. Will Bobby Petrino's squad continue to improve, or was the Auburn victory more of a showcase for all that is wrong on the plains of Tubber-ville? I know that Bobby Petrino will have his group ready to play, so UK better bring the good stuff if they harbor any hopes at all of reaching six or seven wins.

Razorback Personnel

Quarterback Casey Dick: 6'2", 215 lb senior -- On the year Dick is 115-197 through the air for 1,411 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has started all six Arkansas games. Last year Dick started all 13 games and was 150-262 for 1,695 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Running back Michael Smith: 5'7", 173 lb junior -- Smith has 109 rushes for 599 yards, which is good for a 5.5 yards per carry average. He leads the SEC with 119.8 yards per game and he has ran for four touchdowns. Of course last year Smith played behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (both future NFL superstars), so he only garnered 46 carries for 303 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.

Tight end D.J. Williams: 6'2", 250 lb sophomore -- Williams has made 28 catches for 315 yards (11.2 yards per catch) and two touchdowns (all three totals lead the team). He was selected to the All-SEC Freshman first team last year after making five catches for 94 yards.

Wide receiver Joe Adams: 6'0", 175 lb freshman -- The true freshman is second on the team with 22 receptions for 285 yards (13.0 yards per catch) and one touchdown. The multi-talented athlete is a converted cornerback. He was ranked the #12 best cornerback prospect in the country by Rivals, and the #2 overall prospect in the state of Arkansas. He's started in five of six games this year.

Wide receiver London Crawford: 6'2", 200 lb junior -- Smith has 15 catches for 163 yards (10.9 yards per catch). Last year he started the first six games at split end, making eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. He missed the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Wide receiver Greg Childs: 6'4", 205 lb freshman -- Childs has made 12 catches for 171 yards (14.2 yards per catch) and one touchdown. Another true freshman, the receiver was the #9 ranked recruit in Arkansas, and was the #72 rated receiver prospect nationally.

Defensive end Adrian Davis: 6'4", 238 lb junior -- Davis is second on the team with 35 tackles. He has also recorded three sacks (all versus Auburn), five tackles for loss and one interception. In '07 Davis made 65 tackles (10 tackles for loss), two interceptions and three sacks.

Linebacker Jerry Franklin: 6'2", 229 lb redshirt freshman -- Franklin leads the Hogs with 48 tackles. He also has 2.5 tackles for loss, and one interception. Franklin is another conversion; he was the #38 rated safety prospect according to Rivals and the overall #8 prospect in Arkansas.

Cornerback Jamar Love: 6'1", 197 lb senior -- Love has recorded seven pass-breakups, which is impressive considering the Hogs have only had to face 161 thrown passes by their opponents. He is experienced, having played in all 13 games last year ( 22 tackles and four pass break-ups).

Arkansas Related Statistics

Arkansas scores only 18.7 points per game, while giving up 35.3.
Arkansas averages 3.8 yards per rush, while giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
Arkansas has turned the ball over 14 times (five fumbles and nine interceptions), compared to only six takeaways (five interceptions and one fumble recovery). The 'Backs have had 10 opportunities to recover fumbles but gathered in only the one.
Arkansas quarterbacks have been sacked 21 times.
Arkansas has been outscored 48-3 in the fourth quarter.
Arkansas averages 362.8 total yards per game, but they give up 355.5 yards per game.
Arkansas is 13-16 (11 touchdowns) in red zone scoring opportunities. Their opponents are 18-22 (14 touchdowns) in the red zone.
Opponents are converting 41% of their third downs against Arkansas.
Arkansas opponents are averaging 183 yards rushing versus the Razorbacks.
Alabama running back Glen Coffee ran for 162 yards versus Arkansas ('Bama had 328 total rushing yards). By way of comparison, Coffee ran for 218 yards on 25 carries versus UK, and Alabama had 282 total rushing yards.
The University of Texas recorded seven sacks versus the Razorbacks.

The Razorback Schedule

Arkansas has defeated Division I-AA Western Illinois 28-24, Sun Belt member La.-Monroe 28-27, and Auburn 25-22. They've lost to #9 Alabama 49-14, #7 Texas 52-10, and #12 Florida 38-7.

Which one of these doesn't belong? Think Sesame Street.

Never have I been so surprised than to see Arkansas beat Auburn, on the road. Their other five games are rather uneventful; the 'Backs were soundly defeated by the big boys, and they beat a couple of teams that they should have, but sticking out like P Pat's new coif is the Auburn game. We all know that the Tigers have had trouble scoring, so much so, that they ('they' being Tommy Tuberville) fired new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin after only five games. To say that things are in disarray in Dixie would be an understatement.

A closer look at the Arkansas vs. Auburn game revealed a few revelations of note:

Auburn couldn't run the ball -- The Tigers ran for only 56 yards, which was good for only a 1.7 yards per carry average.
Arkansas could run the ball -- Tailback Michael Smith had a career day; rushing 35 time for 176 yards and a score. As a team the Razorbacks ran for 188 yards (4.3 yards per carry).
Since Auburn couldn't run the ball, Arkansas controlled the clock -- The Razorbacks won the time of possession battle 35:02 to 24:58.
Auburn quarterbacks Kodi Burns and Chris Todd were atrocious -- The two combined to go 10-28 for 137 and three interceptions.
Auburn had their chances to put the game away, but failed to deliver -- The Tigers were only two of five in the red zone. In the three unsuccessful trips they threw an interception, turned the ball over on downs (they had the ball 1st and Goal from the five yard line), and missed a field goal.
Arkansas converted their third downs -- The 'Backs were 8-17 on their attempts, while Auburn, unable to run or throw, converted only 4-15.
Both teams turned the ball over three times.
Total offense=total domination -- Arkansas 416 yards, Auburn 193 yards.
Casey Dick was serviceable -- The Razorback signal-caller was 17-32 for 222 yards and two interceptions. Well, on second thought, 'serviceable,' is being kind.

UK and Arkansas -- An SEC Stat Comparison

Scoring -- UK averages 26.2 points per game (6th in the SEC), Arkansas averages 18.7 (10th).
Scoring Defense -- UK allows 10.5 points per game (1st), Arkansas gives up 35.3 points per game (12th).
Total offense -- UK gains 317 yards per game (8th), Arkansas gains 362.8 (6th).
Total defense -- UK holds opponents to 274.2 yards per game (5th), Arkansas gives up 355.5 yards per game (12th).
Rush offense -- UK averages 129.2 yards per game (8th), Arkansas averages 115.2 (11th).
Rush defense -- UK gives up 108.2 yards per game (6th), Arkansas gives up 183.0 yards per game (12th).
Pass offense -- UK throws for 187.8 yards per game (7th), Arkansas throws for 247.7 yards per game (2nd).
Pass defense -- UK gives up 166.0 yards through the air (4th), Arkansas gives up 172.7 yards per game (5th).
Kick-off returns -- UK averages 29.4 yards per return (1st), Arkansas averages 21.9 yards per return (8th).
Punt returns -- UK averages 11.5 on punt returns, Arkansas averages 5.7 yards per return (11th).
Kick-off coverage -- UK nets 46.4 yards per kick-off (2nd), Arkansas nets 36.8 yards per kick-off (12th).
Sacks against -- UK has allowed four sacks (1st), Arkansas has allowed 21 sacks (11th).
Opponents third down conversions -- UK allows a 29.3% conversion rate (4th), Arkansas allows a 41.0% conversion rate (11th).
Third down conversions -- UK converts 30.1% of their third downs (11th), Arkansas converts 39.8% of their third downs (7th).
Turnover margin -- UK is +7 (t2nd), Arkansas is - 8 (12th).

What Must Happen Offensively

Kentucky has to win this game. They just have to. But how ...

In order for UK to come out victorious Saturday night they must run the ball better than they have all year. With Tony Dixon out with an injury, Derrick Locke and Alfonso Smith will be receiving the bulk of the carries. Locke will also be on the receiving end of his fair share of passes, considering the loss of Dicky Lyons leaves him the leading receiver on the team (22 catches for 189 yards and one touchdown). But, the game-plan needs to be run, run, run. Because what happened last week can't happen again ...

Last week versus South Carolina, UK threw the ball twice as much as they ran the ball (44 passes, 22 rushes). That's a ratio designed for failure, and it has to change, pronto. I realize Brooks can't run if they aren't gaining positive yards, so Locke, Smith and Moncell Allen have to find what it is they have been looking for all year, and that might be ...

With the addition of Randall Cobb to the starting lineup (he'll play wide receiver), one can at least hope for a more productive vertical game (actually, the mere existence of a vertical game would be news we can use). His athleticism and evade-ability make him a very dangerous weapon when healthy. UK fans will be watching every cut and catch, waiting for him to break a long one for six. But if he doesn't, always remember this ...

Simply Cobb's presence on an every-down basis will quite possibly loosen up the defenses UK faces, because now the defense has a definite play-maker they must keep one eye on at all times. The offensive possibilities are limitless when a coach possesses a talent like Cobb, lets hope we witness a healthy number of those possibilities versus Arkansas. He's not only talented, he's a good teammate ...

Classy move; the freshman displayed real leadership with his decision to wear Dicky Lyons' #12 Saturday. Dicky, we all wish you well, and only the best.

Here's a quick look at the remaining UK receivers and their numbers:

Derrick Locke -- 22 catches for 189 yards, one touchdown.
Randall Cobb -- 11 catches for 84 yards.
T.C. Drake -- 8 catches for 121 yards.
Kyrus Lanxter (will not play versus Ark.) -- 7 catches for 89 yards.
Maurice Grinter (questionable) -- 7 catches for 76 yards, one touchdown.
E.J. Adams -- 6 catches for 59 yards.
Aaron Boyd (he may start versus Arkansas) -- 4 catches for 30 yards, and ZERO DROPS.
Eric Ademyemi -- 4 catches for 24 yards.
Gene McCaskill -- 3 catches for 27 yards.
DeMoreo Ford -- 1 catch for 48 yards and a touchdown.
Matt Roark -- 1 catch for 6 yards.

In case you're counting, that's six freshman (and only three touchdowns).

What Must Happen Defensively

UK cannot allow running back Michael Smith to have a big day on the ground. The 'Cats have already fallen victim to running backs Glen Coffee ('Bama) and Bobby Rainey (WKU). Smith going for more than a-buck-twenty-five will lesson UK's chances at winning this game, and as we all know this is a "must win" for the boys in blue. At only 5'7", perhaps a brain-rattling hit from Micah Johnson is what our Mr. Smith needs to readjust his goals for the day. How they do it is of no consequence to me (that sounds harsh), as long as UK doesn't allow Smith to do his best Barry Sanders impression.

Razorback quarterback Casey Dick is only average. If Kentucky can get pressure on him, the likelihood is high that somebody will make a play on the ball (if he throws Lindley's way I'll be surprised). He's apt to throw picks, and UK's secondary is one of the best he'll face this year. UK must capitalize.

This is a tough one to predict, but since it's a "must win" I'll go with UK - 23 Arkansas - 14.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Hogs!