SB Nation - Nathan Dick

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

Tabula Rasa: Arkansas' Transition Begins

cocknfire — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 05:58:13 -0000

When your humble correspondent started reviewing the 2008 season for SEC teams, he warned that there might not be that much to say about some of them. Arkansas is one of those teams.

Essentially, 2008 was a wasted year for the Hogs. Moving from a Houston Nutt/Darren McFadden offense to Bobby Petrino's system doesn't happen in a season. The skills required of players all over the field are vastly different. But, still, there is something vaguely haunting in the numbers for Arkansas.

The passing offense was actually pretty decent, Casey Dick-Nathan Dick saga and all: second in the SEC in yardage, fifth in efficiency. But what was absolutely deplorable was the defense, which can be categorized without further research as the worst unit in the SEC.

We knew early on that Arkansas was in trouble, needing rallies to defeat Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe, one an FCS teams and the other a functional equivalent. Consecutive torchings at the hands of Alabama, Texas and Florida, a trio that defeated the Hogs by a combined 108 points, simply confirmed our suspicions.

The Gypsy Coach of the South and his team did end up with some victories over decent teams, from BCS Buster favorite Tulsa to LSU. But the wins were all on offense. Arkansas' defense did not hold a single team to fewer than 21 points, despite a schedule containing offensive, ahem, powerhouses like Auburn, Mississippi State and Kentucky. It's nice to have offense, but if Petrino and Co. want to win in the SEC, they have to play defense at some point.

That said, Arkansas did find some good players in 2008: RB Michael Smith turned out more than 107 ypg, while DT Malcolm Sheppard anchored the defense with 14.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks. Both return, and Michigan refugee Ryan Mallett, despite rumors of a wide-open race, is certain to make his debut as starting QB. If Petrino can mold Mallett into a solid signal-caller and the Hogs can find a fix at defense, they could make themselves a factor, though probably not a contender, in the SEC West.

After a yearlong delay, the future has come to Arkansas.

Previous Reviews:
Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Georgia and the Woes of 10-3
Only Human: The Perfectly Average Season No One Saw Coming [LSU]

An Appreciation: Casey Dick

cocknfire — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 07:47:31 -0000

EDITOR'S NOTE: First in a series honoring those who spent four years in the SEC -- for better or for worse.

On Nov. 5, 2005, Arkansas QB Casey Dick took the field for the first time in his college career. By the time the game was over, Dick had what was arguably one of the most average performances in the history of his positions: 12-of-24 for 137 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Arkansas would lose to South Carolina, 14-10, though I still don't know how the Razorbacks managed not to win after easily outgaining the Gamecocks in total yardage, 356-187, and having tied South Carolina in turnover margin, 1-1.

He would consider that impressive level of mediocrity for the rest of his college career, driving thousands of Arkansas fans to distraction along the way.

Casey Dick, about to either cheer or infuriate thousands. No way to tell which.

Dick played in nine games during the Hogs' 2006 SEC West Championship season, though he attempted more than 10 passes in only five of them. Temporarily overshadowed by Mitch Mustain, he came back to guide Arkansas to a win against, coincidentally enough, South Carolina after Mustain's first pass was picked. He then went 2-3 in Arkansas' last five games, including an awful 3-for-17 performance against LSU three weeks after the South Carolina win. In fact, Dick would not complete more than 50 percent of his passes in the last four games of that year.

In 2007, he was far better, completing more than 80 percent of his passes a couple of times. (One of those times, he attempted only 10 passes, as South Carolina tried valiantly to bolster Darren McFadden's Heisman candidacy.) He had the best TD-to-INT ratio of his career. And Arkansas went 8-4 in the regular season, then lost to Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

Then came 2008, and new head coach Bobby Petrino's pass-happy scheme. Many, self included, were skeptical of Dick's ability to play at all in Petrino's scheme, much less play well. Whether he played well or not depends on your perspective. He ended up with the best completion percentage of his career (57.4 percent), but had an 11-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio before Petrino decided to start Nathan Dick -- Casey's brother -- against Mississippi State.

But Nathan Dick couldn't keep the Hogs going against LSU, as a 14-3 first quarter lead turned into a 23-14 halftime deficit. Petrino once again turned to Nathan's underappreciated older brother, who then had one of the best halves of his career: 18-of-29, 197 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions. Casey Dick also led a last-minute TD drive that gave Arkansas the 31-30 win.

That might be Casey Dick's legacy at Arkansas. He never won the Hogs an SEC title, and could cost them a game, but he also sometimes came through at the most unexpected moment, rallying Arkansas to an impressive victory here or an upset win there.

There's something to be said for that.

Casey Dick's career stats

Games	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
38	473	850	5,856	47	34	123.77

Thanks for the memories? Doubtful -- Arkansas 31, LSU 30

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:16:38 -0000

It could be hard at times this season to find someone to root for at Arkansas. The fans, who forced Houston Nutt out after his success there? No. Bobby Petrino, who bolted from the Atlanta Falcons midseason to take yet another coaching position that he said was his dream job? No.

Then, there was Casey Dick, a quarterback under siege for almost his entire career despite helping lead the Hogs to an SEC West title and 10-win season in 2006 and a Cotton Bowl berth last year. Starting Dick as often as he did was one of the things that led to the end of Nutt's tenure at Arkansas, and starting was something Casey Dick did not do Friday against LSU. Instead, that job went to his brother, Nathan Dick.

But down 23-14 at the half, having watched his offense's 14-point first quarter turn into a shutout second quarter as LSU put up 20 to take the lead, Petrino turned again to Casey Dick, who threw for 2 TDs in the win, including one with 22 seconds left to clinch the 31-30 win.

For LSU, the loss means even a trip to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl becomes dicey. The Music City Bowl or even the Liberty Bowl could now await the Bayou Bengals in the postseason.

For Arkansas, it was a reminder that Casey Dick was, in his time, a pretty good football player -- not a great one, not an outstanding one. But, at least on Friday, one who was good enough.

Is It an Upset If Everyone Sees It Coming? Ole Miss 31, LSU 13 and other Week 13 action

cocknfire — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:03:20 -0000

Sorry to upset you. Or not ...

And the Valley Shook recap (LSU)

The Mayor and I had a discussion earlier this week about whether Ole Miss-LSU was really an upset if the Rebels could manage to win. Many nonpartisan SEC observers, after all, chose Ole Miss to win the game, and the 31-13 waxing in the Bayou on Saturday was not a fluke in any way.

LSU's line play, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, was disappointing; Tiger backs almost always found themselves running into a swarm of red jerseys, and non-quarterbacks ran for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Jevan Snead made the Bengals' secondary resemble a California forest on a cable-news show, completing 16 of 25 passes for 274 yards and 2 TDs. Ole Miss WR Mike Wallace fell just short of his fourth 100-yard game, grabbing five passes for 99 yards and a pair of scores.

The most exciting play of the game, by far, was Houston Nutt at his finest: A fake punt that LSU saw coming, but with a twist the Bengals weren't ready for, namely fullback Jason Cook passing to safety Kendrick Lewis for a 33-yard gain that set up the Rebels' second score. A few minutes later, Ole Miss lead 21-3, and the game was practically over.

Jarrett Lee was Jarrett Lee, though neither he nor Jordan Jefferson got much help from LSU's receiving corps. Jefferson came in after Lee actually completed a risky pass instead of having it returned for a pick-six; the interception machine was hit while throwing off his back foot, which is not an ideal position to be in when a very large defender tackles you.

Jarrett, are you okay? How many pick-sixes have you thrown this year?

The remainder of the game appeared to give LSU a quarterback of the future.

vs Mississippi / 11.22.08	Passing					Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Jordan Jefferson	10	20	50.0	129	1	10	23	2.3	0

Jefferson also threw an interception, as did Lee, but the backup also threw several impressive passes, showed some accuracy and looks to have more mobility than the starter. If LSU's line doesn't improve, scrambilng ability could become a key factor in choosing who should play.

The loss makes the Bengals' showdown with Arkansas a must-win game; after all, a loss against the Hogs would leave LSU 7-5, a record more worthy of a Music City or Liberty Bowl contestant than an Outback or Peach Bowl visitor. The Cotton Bowl is out; upset or not, Mississippi won the right Saturday to play in Dallas.

AN IMPERFECT DREAM
Tennessee 20, Vanderbilt 10
Rocky Top Talk recap (Tennessee) :: Conquer and Prevail (Vanderbilt)

It's hard to know which game had more Tennessee Volunteer fans watching it -- this one or Texas Tech-Oklahoma, which featured a man some Rocky Top supporters hope will be the next coach of the Vols. Don't let the score deceive you; if they watched the Sooners demolish the Red Raiders, they watched the better football game.

The Vols-Dores contest, on the other hand, featured a combined six turnovers, 11 penalties and 456 yards of offense -- only 21 of those from Tennessee's passing, ahem, "attack." No one in this game played good football, and hardly anyone played football at all. (Eric Berry gave the game ball back to Fulmer and D.J. Moore wasn't much of a factor.)

Tennessee's offense was anemic, but Dave Clawson finally seems to have figured out that the best chance for the Vols is to run the ball, the run the ball and then run the ball. One could argue he discovered this about 10 games too late. Tennessee attemped nine passes, including four completions, and otherwise left things in the hands of Lennon Creer and Arian Foster, who combined for 153 of the Vols' 222 rushing yards.

For Vandy, the QB play was as mediocre as ever. Mackenzi Adams completed half his passes, and Chris Nickson's only completion of his five attempts netted -4 yards.

Of course, the Commodores will be going to a bowl game next month, and the Vols will stay home. But, for a day at least, Tennessee could still feel a bit better about itself than Vanderbilt.

MISSISSIPPI STATE? OFFENSE?!? WHO KNEW?
Mississippi State 31, Arkansas 28

Want to know how bad Arkansas' defense is? Just take a look at Tyson Lee's numbers from Saturday: 23-of-40, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. Sure, you might have figured that Anthony Dixon had a 179-yard rushing performance in him -- but Tyson Lee?!? Really?

Not that the Bulldogs really shut down Arkansas' passing attack; Nathan Dick (brother of Casey) passed for 333 yards, completing 25 of his 43 attempts for three scores and a pick.

What sticks out about this game is the near-equality in most of the major stat categories: Mississippi State had 22 first downs to Arkansas' 20; the Bulldogs rung up 445 yards in total offense while Arkansas piled up 442; the time-of-possession edge for Mississippi State was a mere 70 seconds. Which is really what you would expect from a game between two bad teams playing out the string.

ELSEWHERE

Florida 70, The Citadel 19 :: Alligator Army recap (Florida)
This game officially became absurd when Chris Rainey hit 126 yards rushing with his fourth carry; he would end up with 142 on seven rushing attempts. Tim Tebow's nine completions gave him 201 yards passing, the most since the Oct. 11 demolition of LSU. When it was over, the Gators had 705 yards of total offense and their first 70-point effort since Steve Spurrier walked the sidelines.

Getting There is Half the Fun: Alabama, Florida clinch and other Week 11 action

cocknfire — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 06:17:41 -0000

Rashad Johnson hearts Jarrett Lee.

Roll Bama Roll (Alabama) :: And the Valley Shook recap (LSU)
Alligator Army recap (Florida) :: Conquer and Prevail (Vanderbilt)

It is, perhaps, fitting that Alabama and Florida won their way Saturday into the SEC Championship Game in very different ways. After all, these are very different teams: Alabama, the flawed giant that has nonetheless found a way to defeat all challengers; and Florida, the offensive juggernaut that, aside from its inexcusable loss to Ole Miss, has pulverized everyone who has taken the field against them.

Both played to the script this weekend. The only unusual part is that Alabama didn't have its usual post-halftime swoon. The Tide fell behind LSU 14-7 early, tied things before the half, then battled through two more quarters and an overtime to ice the SEC West. The hero was not an offensive player, but rather Rashad Johnson, who picked off Jarrett Lee three times in the latest nightmare outing for LSU's freshman starting QB.

vs Alabama / 11.8.08	Passing					Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Jarrett Lee	13	34	38.2	181	1	1	-3	-3.0	0

To put those interceptions into perspective: Only two of LSU's receivers caught more passes from Lee than did Johnson. (Those two would be Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, both with four.) Lee threw another pick to Rolando McClain.

Not that John Parker Wilson, the latest player to have his cell phone distributed to LSU fans, was much better. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes, threw an interception and no touchdowns -- though he did run the QB sneak for Alabama's first TD and did it again for the game-ending score. (A moment here: If LSU fans are going to keep doing the cell phone thing, which I think is fine as long as there are no death threats or anything, then the opposing player's phone pantomime should not result in a penalty.)

Wilson didn't make the kind of costly mistakes Lee did, though, and that ended up being the difference. Lee's mistakes resulted in points for Alabama and, in the case of an overtime interception in the end zone, a chance to extend the game.

Taking the field shortly after Wilson's last plunge in Baton Rouge, Florida once again relied on QB Tim Tebow to put the game out of reach early. Tebow ran for 88 yards, pass for 171 yards and a 213.32 rating and accounted for the Gators' first five touchdowns as Florida jumped up to a 35-0 halftime lead. At that point, thousands of Florida fans were likely already logging on to their favorite travel Web sites to book hotel rooms for early December in Atlanta.

Getting to the City Too Busy to Hate, though, is all that really matters. If both these teams get to the SEC Championship Game undefeated, and we all expect them to, then the title match is a play-in for the BCS championship tilt. The other team will most likely end in up New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, which isn't bad for a consolation prize.

But neither of these teams came this far for a consolation prize. Having punched their ticket to Atlanta, the Tide and the Gators are focused on getting to Miami.

NOT QUITE WHAT WE EXPECTED
Georgia 42, Kentucky 38
Dawg Sports recap (Georgia) :: A Sea of Blue recap (Kentucky)

There's nothing wrong with winning a close game after Kentucky. After all, these are not your father's Wildcats, or for that matter your Wildcats, who for years battled Vanderbilt and South Carolina to be recognized as the worst team in the SEC East. So when Alabama gets by UK, 17-14, the Tide are still in the running for the national championship. When South Carolina manages a 24-17 victory, it's still a significant victory for the Gamecocks.

But when you beat Kentucky's somnambulant offense on a last-second interception after already allowing the Wildcats to ring up 331 yards, 20 first downs and 38 points, there are deep issues on your football team. It might be injuries, it might the rigors of playing a difficult schedule, it might be a hangover from being dissected by Florida the week before, but Saturday added a flashing siren to the "WARNING" sign already hanging on the Dawgs' season.

Fortunately for Georgia, they still have one of the most talented offenses not quarterbacked by Tim Tebow in the SEC. Matthew Stafford threw for 376 yards, Knowshon Moreno ran for 123 yards and Mohamed Massaquoi continued having a breakout season during his 17th year in the SEC. The Dawgs also have the schedule on their side: a visit to Auburn this weekend and, in two weeks, a rivalry game against resurgent Georgia Tech, which is probably still a step or two behind. A trip to Orlando still appears to be in the cards for Georgia.

Kentucky is bowl-bound, but to which bowl is still an open question. One that will likely be answered when Vanderbilt comes to Lexington on Saturday. Tennessee is a likely win, so victory over the Commodores would get the Wildcats to eight wins and put them in strong contention for a Peach Bowl berth, or even a trip to the Outback if South Carolina stumbles against Clemson. Not bad for a former doormat.

YOU PUT ONE QB IN, YOU TAKE ONE QB OUT ...
South Carolina 34, Arkansas 21
Garnet and Black Attack recap (South Carolina)

Both South Carolina and Arkansas used more than one quarterback to get through this one, but only one team chose to do so. Again, the head coaches for these teams are Steve Spurrier and Bobby Petrino. You can guess who chose to rotate his signal-callers on nearly every play.

Yes, Spurrier played the QB hokey pokey with Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley, to limited effect. The two combined to go 13-for-30 for 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception -- which gave them two fewer picks than Casey Dick, who came out of the game for brother Nathan following a potential concussion. The Gamecocks also continued their recent we're-going-to-run-even-if-it-doesn't-work play calling, managing 132 yards rushing on 34 carries, a 3.9 ypc average.

But with Ellis Johnson's defense, South Carolina is usually going to win with 351 yards, even against a high-octane offense like Arkansas. Johnson tied the Hogs down, allowing just 54 yards rushing and 309 total.

Are the Gamecocks worth their Top 25 ranking? We'll see. A respectable loss to Florida and a win over Clemson should keep them in the rankings until their bowl game, where they can seal their first season-ending spot in the Top 25 since the 2001-02 season.

For Arkansas, the longshot dreams of a bowl game probably died in Columbia. Sure, the Razorbacks can probably win at Mississippi State on Nov. 22, but will likely be heavy underdogs against LSU in the season-ender the day after Thanksgiving. There will be better days for Petrino and Co., likely when Casey Dick isn't the quarterback coming out with a concussion.

ELSEWHERE

Wyoming 13, Tennessee 7 :: Rocky Top Talk recap (Tennessee)
Not much more can be said at this point about the Vols. When your head coach has been fired and fans are openly debating whether this is your worst season ever, the year is officially beyond repair. This not the way Phil Fulmer, a man who cried as he gave up his job to avoid dividing the Vols fan base, deserved to go out. But this is exactly how he exits: Thoroughly defeated and tarnishing his legacy more with each passing loss.

Auburn 37, Tennessee-Martin 20 :: Track Em Tigers (Auburn)
This game could prove to be a Rorshach test for Auburn fans. Some will observe that it could have been worse -- Auburn could, after all, have lost to the Skyhawks. Others will say it could have been a lot better, and this is not a convincing case for Tommy Tuberville to keep his job, even if it does give Auburn's flickering bowl hopes a faint pulse. In the end, the future of the program will be decided in the Iron Bowl: Defeat Alabama and Auburn will go to a bowl game having potentially derailed the Tide's national title hopes. Anything less might not do it.

Reviewing Arkansas / Why We Won

Gamecock Man — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 15:39:57 -0000

One of the imperatives in this game was to make the Hogs pay for last year, and we did that. The final margin was only two scores, but Arkansas made it look closer than it really was by scoring a late garbage TD and this game was never in doubt other than briefly in the third quarter after the Hogs closed the gap to 20-14. This was a solid, convincing victory.

That said, we looked far from perfect. While they got the job done, our offense was only inconsistently effective. A lot of the blame goes to Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley. On the surface, their combined 219 passing yards and 2 passing TDs along with the TD Garcia scored on the ground does not look too bad. However, neither was particularly accurate. Garcia supporters will remember the perfect fade Garcia threw to Kenny McKinley in the fourth quarter to more or less put the game our of reach for the Hogs, but Garcia was 4/11 with an interception and threw numerous shaky passes when he had receivers open. Smelley's numbers were a little better, but he is lucky to escape the game without an interception, also threw bad passes when he had open receivers (Smelley must be the only person on the planet who can overthrow 6'5 Jared Cook), and cost us a couple of touchdowns when did not see open receivers and threw it to guys in coverage.

Should we blame our quarterbacks' pedestrian performances on Spurrier's decision to alternate them almost every other play? Perhaps. I can only imagine that it is difficult for Chris or Stephen to find a rhythm when they know they are not going to stay in the game long. On the other hand, lots of Spurrier's ploys worked yesterday. We did have open receivers all over the field, which indicates that Spurrier beat Arkansas's defense from an Xs and Os standpoint. Part of that scheme success probably owes to the confusion the QB alternations caused Arkansas. If our quarterbacks could have made a few more of their throws, we might have scored 50 on these guys. So it may not have been such a bad idea to alternate Garcia and Smelley, even if it did not work as well as it might have. Part of the problem also owes to our receivers dropping ball. Jason Barnes looked like the next Sidney Rice a few weeks ago, but now he looks more like the Troy Williamson of Vikings fame. On a side note, I thought the wide-tackle formations were generally effective and can only wonder why we did not use this formation against LSU in the second half.

We also finally saw a solid performance out of our running game. Both Eric Baker and Mike Davis played well in the second half, particularly during our final TD drive. If I remember correctly, we did not throw the ball once during that possession. Who would have thought we could drive the length of the field on the legs of our tailbacks? I do not want to make too much of running success against an Arkansas team that has a terrible defense and was likely worn out at the end of the game, but seeing that we can run the ball to some degree was promising.

Our defense played well for most of the game, although Arkansas did mount
a couple of decent drives. Casey Dick passed the ball well against us other than his three interceptions. My general impression is that the only thing keeping our defense from being truly great is that we do not generate much of a pass rush when we do not blitz. Casey Dick (and his brother Nathan on the final drive) often had a lot of time to throw the ball, and I doubt that any defense is going to have much success against a Petrino-coach team without getting in the quarterback's face. Luckily, we took advantage of the inevitable bad throws Dick always tends to make. Jordin Lindsey's interception was a great play and helped us put the game away.

One thing to be happy about is our performance defending the run. Michael Smith came into this game as one of the country's most productive tailbacks, and we held him to 25 yards on seven carries. With Florida and Clemson coming up, we will need to continue to defend the run well.

Special teams play was so-so. We did well in the return game, but Chris Culliver's inability to keep his head at the end of the game will cost us his services in the first half against the Gators (Culliver's suspension will also be felt on defense). Captain Munnerlyn fumbled a punt, but luckily we got it back. One day we are going to lose one of those. Finally, Succop continues to perplex. He made a great 54 yard kick that might have been good from a couple more yards out, but missed a gimme chip shot later in the game. Succop's struggles have yet to cause us a game, but they might against better competition.

All in all, this was a good but not great performance. I am happy with the victory, especially considering that we likely wrapped up an Outback or Peach Bowl bid. However, neither Arkansas or Tennessee (who lost to Wyoming yesterday) are good teams, so we should not overestimate the value of beating them. I saw little to indicate that we have what it takes to hang with the Gators. Unless we get perfect play from our quarterbacks, we will not be able to score enough points to beat Florida. What we saw yesterday from Garcia and Smelley simply will not cut it. We will also need better play to beat Clemson. The Tigers are not a good team and have a very shaky defense, but they are better than Arkansas and will play their best game of the year when we come to town.