SB Nation - Casey Dick

Previewing South Carolina at Arkansas: Q & A with Arkansas Expats

Gamecock Man — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:13:41 -0000

More photos » by Danny Johnston - AP

about 1 month ago: Arkansas wide receiver Lucas Miller, left, and Arkansas tight end D.J. Williams celebrate Miller's third quarter touchdown in the NCAA college football game with Eastern Michigan in Fayetteville, Ark., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009. Arkansas defeated Eastern Michigan 63-27. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

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I got together with our SB Nation colleagues Arkansas Expats to preview this weekend's game. Here's what they had to say. (My answers to their questions are here.)

1. Bobby Petrino's tenure at Arkansas started off badly in 2008 and then pulled it together a bit late in that year, leading to speculation that 2009 would be a breakout year for the Hogs. However, while Arkansas has played well at times this year--particularly in the victory over Auburn and the close loss to Florida--it has also struggled and doesn't seem very far ahead of where it was late in 2008. Is this an accurate assessment, and how do Arkansas fans feel about Petrino's performance at this point?

Well, in one way the Hogs are very much ahead of where they were last year, and that's on offense. Last year, the Hogs averaged 21.9 points per game, which ranked seventh in the SEC, and 373.1 total yards of offense per game, the fourth-highest average in the conference. This year, they're averaging 35.9 points and 438 total yards of total offense per game, both of which rank second in the SEC. Ryan Mallett is a huge upgrade over Casey Dick, and the Hogs receiving corps - led by Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams - is as electric a group as we've ever seen in Fayetteville.

However, those gaudy statistics at least partially obscure the fact that the offense is fairly one-dimensional - the running game has struggled to get going this year, and tight-end D.J. Williams, a true star last year, has yet to develop a good chemistry with Mallett. Our special teams unit continues to struggle at times, and the defense too often has been downright woeful.

Add it all up, and we think the Hogs are noticeably better than last year (the 2008 team could never have taken a Florida squad down to the wire in Gainesville) but perhaps not as improved as many Hog fans were hoping. There were lots of predictions of an 8-4 regular-season record this summer, and obviously that mark is going to be very tough to attain now.

Despite the team's various struggles this season, Hog fans are still very supportive of Petrino (although there was some grumbling after Ole Miss and Houston Nutt whipped Arkansas in Oxford). Razorback fans can be as unrealistic as any fans in the country, but the large majority of us seem to realize that Bobby inherited a program that will require more than two seasons to rebuild.

2. Ryan Mallett has had an impressive season so far. However, outside of the Georgia and Auburn games, his big numbers haven't always translated into lots of points or wins in big games. What has Mallett done well this year, and what does he need to continue to work on to take his game to the next level?

Mallett has an absolute cannon of an arm, and this season the Hogs are serious threats to score quickly and often via the deep pass. But too often it seems, the deep pass has been the Razorbacks' only way of scoring. As mentioned above, Mallett and D.J. Williams have yet to click, and Arkansas' short passing game could use some improvement.

Ryan has struggled with his accuracy at times, and his mobility is an issue against aggressive defenses. He's only a sophomore, so it stands to reason that he should improve in most of the above-mentioned areas. Except for the mobility issue, that is. Not sure there's much he can do about that.

3. Despite having more experience than a year ago, Arkansas continues to have a shaky defense, especially against the pass. What has gone wrong this year, and is there light at the end of the tunnel for this particular group?

Well, the Hogs' defense may be more experienced than last year, but it's not much more talented. Although it’s quite possible that Petrino’s first pick for the D.C. job (Ellis Johnson – a guy you might be familiar with) would be having more success with this group than Willy Robinson had he stayed in Fayetteville, there’s only so much that can be done with a group that’s thin in so many key areas. The Hogs’ staff is making defense the recruiting priority, but of course that won’t help us stop whatever Spurrier has planned for Saturday.

Having said that, the Hogs' defense actually has had a few bright spots this year. We seem to do well against spread teams, having held both Auburn and Florida far below their usual outputs, and the defensive line, led by Malcolm Sheppard, is actually pretty strong. Last time we checked, Arkansas was towards the top of the country in making tackles for a loss...the only problem is that those tackles are often followed by a defensive breakdown that gives up a big play.

As far as a light at the end of the tunnel goes, we'd like to believe that a few more good recruits and a more consistent across-the-board effort from the whole team will solve a lot of the basic woes. But, until that happens we're going to have to rely on Mallett's arm to win games for us.

4. Because you're our Western Division opponent and the series has been back and forth and has had some really great games, a lot of Gamecocks see this series as a budding rivalry of sorts. Where would you put the Gamecocks on your list of SEC rivals?

That's a great question. Rivalries in the SEC are a funny thing - by the time the Hogs and Gamecocks joined the party, most of the other guys had been playing (and hating on) each other for about 100 years. Plus, both of us haven't really beaten the key teams consistently enough since joining to engender too much significant ill-will ... we're more in the "pesky nuisance" category.

So, there are a few teams Razorback fans particularly look forward to playing (and, ideally, beating), but we'm not sure if you could consider those rivalries in the true sense of the word. LSU is definitely one, and Ole Miss is becoming another (for reasons that are probably obvious). As far as South Carolina goes, there's certainly potential there for it to become a solid rivalry - we play every year and both fanbases are sort of looking for that mutual hate we described earlier - but from the Arkansas side we don't think we're quite there yet. We think most Hog fans tend to focus on the Western Division teams first and foremost, but we'd be all for getting something going!

5. Prediction. Who will win and how will it go down?

Well, for starters we should put in a plug for your readers to visit our site tomorrow when we unveil the official prognostication from our staff soothsayer, Rasputin. We lack his predictive powers, but the homers in us have to say Arkansas in a close, probably fairly high-scoring game.

Obviously, both teams really need this one in terms of setting up a strong finish to the season, and we expect it to be pretty intense (or as intense as a game played at the crack of dawn can be). Your offense will probably break off at least a couple of really big plays (it's apparently written into the SEC by-laws that each opponent will have a 70+ yard scoring play against us this year), and your defense (especially Eric Norwood) concerns us, but hopefully a well-rested Michael Smith and a newly healthy Joe Adams will give us the offensive spark needed to put us over the top.

Thanks to Arkansas Expats for participating in this Q & A.

Week Four Preview: #3 Alabama vs Arkansas Overview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:33 -0000

More photos » by April L. Brown - AP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer Alabama has faced this season.

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The 49-14 thumping that Alabama put on Arkansas last year in Fayetteville was easily the most lopsided game this series has seen in a decade. Last year's game, however, was also an anomaly as this series generally sees close, hard-fought contests, and none should expect another crimson landslide for a second year in a row.

There are two majors reasons for that: One, Arkansas looks to be a much better team this year than they were a year ago, and two, last year's game was much closer than the scoreboard indicated. Lopsided score notwithstanding, last year's game was actually played pretty evenly by the two teams, and the massive disparity on the scoreboard resulted from four major players all going Alabama's way. Those four plays were Glen Coffee's long touchdown run, Casey Dick's two interceptions (while driving) that were returned for touchdowns, and Terrence Cody's goal line stand to end the first half, and all of them directly resulted in Alabama touchdowns. Don't expect all of the big plays to go the Tide's way this year, and thus a much closer game this time around.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Arkansas Defense

On the surface, this seems like a lopsided match-up in the Tide's favor. The Alabama offense has been surprisingly effective to date -- 500+ yards of total offense in each of the first three games, and 127 total points -- and Greg McElroy has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The offensive line was a major question mark coming into the season, and while penalties have hurt them somewhat, they've still generally gotten the job done. Even with Julio Jones not even playing in more than half of the offensive snaps to date, nothing has really been able to slow down the Tide's offense. On the other hand, Arkansas' defense has been nothing short of abysmal to date. It was a very bad unit a year ago, and unfortunately for the Hog faithful it's one that has shown little or no improvement since.

So is it just a given that the Alabama offense is going to rack up points left and right against Arkansas? Perhaps, but let's not be so fast.

An objective look at Arkansas' defense yields a group that is very light on elite top-end talent and quality depth throughout the roster, but even so this unit may not be as hapless as many would make it seem. Clearly the Hogs had a disastrous performance last week against Georgia, but it is worth noting that performance came almost entirely without the presence of two of Arkansas' best defenders: middle linebacker Jerry Franklin and cornerback Rudell Crim. Franklin is the leader of the linebacker corps and he was ejected in the second quarter, and Crim is the team's best cornerback, but he went out with leg cramps early. And as if missing two of their best players wasn't a big enough issue in its own right, their replacements -- Terrell Williams and Greg Gatson -- were effectively outright disasters. Franklin will be back this week, however, and you can rest assured that the Arkansas medical staff will have Crim properly hydrated this time around, so their returns alone will go a long way towards improving this Arkansas defense.

The big concern for Alabama, most likely, comes in the running game. The offensive line is still a bit of an unknown commodity, and for all of the criticisms of the Arkansas defense, we really haven't been challenged in the way that this Hog front seven will challenge us. Given our proclivity towards using two-tight end sets, we practically lost five starters at the point of attack from a year ago (Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis, Travis McCall, and Nick Walker), and the replacements for those five starters simply don't have the size that their predecessors did. Combined we are about 100 pounds lighter at the point of attack than we were last year -- which is to say nothing of the fact that the combination of Preston Dial and Brad Smelley isn't near the blocker that Travis McCall was, size differential notwithstanding -- and that alone probably means that we cannot dominate teams in the trenches like we did a year ago.

And that is where Arkansas really challenges us. For all of the criticisms of their defense, this is a big, strong unit in the front seven, and that is something we really haven't seen this year. Virginia Tech openly traded size for speed, and both Florida International and North Texas were clearly outmatched physically. Arkansas, however, is a very different animal altogether. They average nearly 280 pounds in the front four, the linebacker corps averages around 235 pounds, and with Malcom Sheppard manning the defensive tackle position, they will be able to match our physical style of play. In all likelihood, if the Arkansas defense is to slow down the Alabama offense, this is likely how they will have to do it.

Unfortunately, however, the rest of the match-ups for the Hogs simply do not look good.

Looking at the rest of the defensive backfield, even with a healthy Rudell Crim, the secondary is still one of the worst in the conference. Starting opposite Crim is Ramon Broadway, but Broadway has made news for three things this year, none of which are good for the Hogs: Getting arrested for not showing up to traffic court, running his mouth before the Georgia game, and ultimately getting lit up by A.J. Green. He's a below average corner in coverage, and the same thing goes for the rest of the rotation at cornerback. Highly-touted true freshman Darius Winston -- a consensus five-star prospect -- has not been able to make any impact whatsoever. Likewise, the safety play from Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris has impressed no one to date.

Largely the same thing goes for the linebacker corps as well. Jerry Franklin is a fine player at middle linebacker, but while the starters surrounding him, Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton, have a good bit of size, neither of the two look to be particularly good players right now. The aforementioned Terrell Williams struggled greatly last weekend trying to fill in for Franklin, and while Jerico Nelson is a good player against the pass, at barely 200 pounds he struggles to get on the field on running downs, thus limiting his effectiveness.

The best match-up of all may very well come against the Arkansas defensive line in the passing game, which has struggled to rush the passer. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at defensive end, but neither are particularly adept pass rushers, and while Sheppard is more active than your typical interior player, there's only so much you can legitimately expect when you need your interior defensive linemen to generate the bulk of your pass rush. Despite Georgia being without its starting left tackle last week, Arkansas still couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever on Joe Cox, ultimately racking up only one sack and one hurry on approximately 30 passing attempts. Alabama may still have some issues protecting off the edge, but Greg McElroy ought to find himself with plenty of time to throw the football.

All in all, the Arkansas defense may be a bit better than it has been given credit for, and at any rate Alabama is still going to have to come out and execute successfully over the course of 60-70 plays to get the job done. Nevertheless, you still have to think that the Tide will put up more than their fair share of points this weekend. Arkansas may make running the football tough, but Arkansas' porous defensive backfield mixed with a lack of a consistent pass rush is likely a lethal combination in and of itself if Greg McElroy continues to play like he has so far this year.

Alabama Defense v. Arkansas Offense

While most expect the Alabama offense to have a big day against the struggling Arkansas defense, it's clear to everyone that it will be strength on strength when the Arkansas offense comes on the field. Both the Alabama defense and the Arkansas offense have the ability to be among the nationally elite with regard to their respective units, and making matters even more intriguing both units are led by two of the most advanced football minds in all of college football.

The Arkansas offense is a scary group, no two ways about it. Ryan Mallett has the arm strength of JaMarcus Russell, and he is easily the best pure pocket passer that Alabama has faced in years. The backfield is loaded with talented tailbacks that bring experience along with their unique mixes and matches of different physical builds. Tight end D.J. Williams is clearly the best in the conference, and back-up Ben Cleveland is a very valuable threat as a possession receiver. The wide receiver corps, too, is a good one from top to bottom. They don't have a true superstar ala Julio Jones, but they do have five or six high quality wide receivers who have good athleticism and who run good routes -- Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams are good enough to begin with, and Lucas Miller is returning this week from injury. That alone makes the Hogs very difficult to defend on the perimeter, even without saying anything with regard to Mallett. Bottom line, at the very least, this is the third-best offense in the conference, and it could easily be the best.

The only real weakness of the Arkansas offense comes up front at the point of attack, where the Hogs offensive line is seemingly still a relic of the Houston Nutt era. All five starters committed to Nutt, and not surprisingly they are generally the big, physical mashers that Nutt loved so much in his run-heavy offense. The "smallest" player on the line comes in at around 6'5 and 305 pounds, and truthfully that fact is probably doing the Hogs few favors. This line is, on the whole, a fish out of water. They are more physically built to pave the way for a run-heavy offense, but with the coaching turnover they are now being asked to pass protect against highly athletic pass rushers in a pass-happy offense. On a fundamental level it's effectively a recipe for disaster, and not surprisingly it's a team that has struggled to a degree to protect the passer. Starting right tackle DeMarcus Love probably needs to be playing inside at guard, and starting left tackle Ray Dominguez was absolutely atrocious against Georgia with four penalties and one sack allowed. The left tackle of the future is Anthony Oden, the younger brother of basketball star Greg Oden. He'll be a star one day, and the Arkansas coaches have indicated he may play some this week against Alabama, but he's a true freshman and given Nick Saban's love for giving multiple fronts that confuse offensive linemen, I'm not sure exactly how eager the Arkansas coaching staff is to put him in front of 93,000 fans. Nevertheless, if Dominguez' struggles continue, the Hogs' hand may be forced.

And this is the weakness that the Alabama defense must successfully attack to limit the Arkansas offense. The performance of our defensive backfield has been solid but not spectacular to date -- the overall statistics look good, but safety play has been shaky and highly inconsistent, Kareem Jackson has been hit or miss, and Marquis Johnson had a key penalty against Virginia Tech -- but the simple truth of the matter is that if Ryan Mallett consistently has the time to throw, it's going to be a very long day for the Tide. The Arkansas wide receiver corps is too good and Ryan Mallett has too much arm strength and accuracy to expect to be able to consistently stop the Arkanas offense if we cannot get pressure on Mallett.

Fortunately for the Tide, however, you have to like how we match against the Arkansas offensive line. Marcel Dareus is having a breakout year, Lorenzo Washington is playing better than ever, and we've gotten great pressure from the linebacker corps with Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Eryk Anders. Moreover, on obvious passing downs, we have been moving the defensive ends inside in a four man front, and then putting Hightower and Anders at end. The results have been very good, to put it mildly, and we have consistently harassed passers all year long. Given the struggles Arkansas has had at the tackle positions, all signs point towards the Tide having some success getting to Mallett.

Even with that said, though, expect the Arkansas offense to have a reasonable amount of success against the Tide regardless. The running game has the potential to be a very good one -- you mix a bunch of big, strong offensive linemen with a group of highly talented tailbacks, and that is usually what you get -- and unless the Arkansas coaching staff is blowing smoke, they plan to use the rushing attack more prominently this weekend. It could have some success, and realistically no matter how well you can pressure Mallett, all of the outstanding components of the Arkansas passing game will guarantee that the Hogs hit more than a few plays in the passing game. These guys are going to score points, period.

Putting It All Together

All in all, I don't think there is much questioning the notion that Alabama is the better team here. We have more top-end talent, more quality depth, and probably a tad bit more experience as well. As long as Greg McElroy continues to play like he has to date, you have to imagine that Alabama will score more than their fair share of points tomorrow, and we should come away with the victory. Nevertheless, this game is far from a given, and it is likely to be a closely fought contest that goes into the fourth quarter. Arkansas is at worst a solid SEC team, and the difference between the two teams is far from gaping.

While it seems like we should be able to take full advantage of the Arkansas defense, truth be told we are probably going to have to do just that in order to win this game. Bamagrad has talked about these spread passing teams before, and I think he makes a good point: You can have a good defense and play well, but at the end of the day they are still good enough offensively to put up 24-28 points on the board. That could very well happen to us on Saturday, and if our special teams breakdowns continue, we could very easily be needing to score 31-35+ points in order to be able to get the victory. Arkansas is an improved team over last year, and they pulled off some pretty big upsets even then -- another victory over LSU, and came within a hair of knocking off Ole Miss as well. Rest assured, the Hogs will collect some more scalps this year, and it won't be a shock if they head back to Fayetteville with a crimson scalp in their possession.

Hope for the best.

Comparison: Arkansas versus WIU and Missouri State

Year2 — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:00:20 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at Arkansas versus Western Illinois last year and versus Missouri State this year.

Arkansas struggled to beat WIU last year, but they blew out Missouri State this year. Just how different were these two games? Very different, as you're about to see. I don't claim to know the minutiae of I-AA football, but last year WIU went 6-3 against I-AA competition and Missouri State went 4-5 against I-AA competition.

OFFENSE

Sack yardage has been taken out of the rushing totals to more accurately reflect actual rushing.

CATEGORY	vs. WIU	vs. MISSOURI ST.
Total Yards	429	591
Passing	318	447
Yds. per Pass	7.8	10.9
Rushing	111	144
Yds. per Rush	6.8	4.8
Turnovers	3	1
Time of Poss.	23:17	30:24
Sacks All.	4 (-35 yards)	0

What a difference a year makes. After struggling mightily against the WIU Leathernecks (23:17 time of possession?!), the numbers were up pretty much across the board. The 447 passing yards were a school record, the passing average was a lot better, and the one turnover was by a reserve player. The rushing average fell some, but a lot of that had to do with starter Michael Smith getting the rest of the day off after just four carries. He had an average of 10.8 in those four carries, so if he's healthy, there's no reason to worry about the ground game.

Ryan Mallett was as big an upgrade as billed over Casey Dick, as his passing average was a sterling 14.0 yards per pass. He completed 17 of 22 attempts and didn't throw a pick. Tyler Wilson, the backup who famously has had to learn to play under center after doing the shotgun all of high school, had a Casey Dick-like day with an average of 7.3 yards per pass and an interception. He did have two touchdowns though.

DEFENSE

Again, sack yardage has been taken out.

CATEGORY	vs. WIU	vs. MISSOURI ST.
Total Yards	263	220
Passing	105	123
Yds. per Pass	4.0	5.6
Rushing	158	97
Yds. per Rush	3.5	2.9
Turnovers	0	2
Time of Poss.	36:43	29:36
Sacks For	1 (-1 yard)	3 (-15 yards)

The biggest problem for the Hogs last year was defense. The offense ended up decent, even becoming one of the top passing offenses in the conference. It was the defense that really held them back.

The early returns are sort of inconclusive, though promising. Missouri State had an easier time throwing the ball, but a tougher time rushing. The improvement in time of possession and sacks is quite noticeable. Perhaps the best sign is that WIU was able to sustain scoring drives of 76 and 57 yards while the game was tight, whereas Missouri State's longest drives were of 56 and 53 yards, the latter of which coming after the game was out of hand.

The predicted offensive improvement has definitely arrived. The defense is looking a little better, though not dramatically just yet. It's hard to draw too many conclusions in games against I-AA opponents, but at least this year, no one is saying "uh oh" about Arkansas' opener.

Previous Comparison: Alabama.

Q&A: Brandon Marcello

Arkansas Expats — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 13:14:43 -0000

More photos » by Beth Hall - AP

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett smiles while being interviewed during college football Media Day, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Beth Hall)

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Only three days to go until the season opener against Missouri State. In other words, the perfect time to chat with Brandon Marcello, who provides outstanding Razorbacks coverage every day as the online editor of WholeHogSports.com and the primary contributor to the site's Slophouse blog. Brandon was able to see the Hogs throughout their fall camp, and we know you'll enjoy his first-hand perspective on this year's Piggies. The only question he left unanswered is, Will he be able to handle the sudden leap in fame that is sure to come his way after appearing on this site?

Many thanks for your time, Brandon! Now, on with the show ...

Expats: You got a chance to see Ryan Mallet in fall camp. What's your take on the Hogs' new starting quarterback? Is he going to live up to the hype?

Marcello: A lot of people are already putting him up there as the best quarterback since Joe Ferguson, and, frankly, I don't know how you can argue that without, well, getting into an argument. Mallett hasn't even taken a snap but his tools and stature provide plenty of promise for the Razorbacks' passing game. If Bobby Petrino can turn a quarterback like Casey Dick into a 2,500-yard-plus passer, he can do wonders with a guy whose arm, accuracy, touch and instincts are unmatched in the SEC-era of Arkansas football.

I believe he'll reach that hype and, yes, perhaps, pass it. The man has everything going for him to get there, and I believe he won't be a victim of a "circus" like atmosphere that surrounded a similar hometown QB who, understandably, decided to leave the Hills for the California shores.

Mallett seems to embrace the attention, his hometown roots and what it would mean to an entire state if he guides the Razorbacks to a championship. And while I won't go as far as to say Mallett will be the delivery man for an SEC Championship trophy during his time here, I will venture a guess and say he'll be atop many categories in the record books before he leaves.

As for this season, he'll break the season record for touchdown throws (26) and will throw for more than 3,000 yards, giving him the best season by a Razorback quarterback in school history.

The question is, can the defense back him up and make him look even better?

Expats: After Michael Smith, the Hogs have sophomore Dennis Johnson and a host of intriguing newcomers in the backfield. Who do you see emerging as the primary complement to Smith?

Marcello: I'd say Dennis Johnson, but I'm becoming more and more of a believer that Ronnie Wingo will be the player who jumps out at us by the middle of the season. If Wingo gets a few swing passes out of the backfield, lines up at slot receiver or, just somehow, gets to be isolated on the outside -- watch out!

I will say that I believe people are looking at the depth chart a little too hard right now. Listen, the running back rotation is just that - a rotation. Every player has something to bring to the table, so if Michael Smith has 25 carries one game or if Broderick Green has 20 the next, it's probably because the opponent's defense was slow to the line or, in Green's case, stacking the box or always finding themselves with their backs near the goal line.

Still, I'm a big believer that Wingo and wide receiver Joe Adams are going to prove something special this season. Both are home run hitters.

I just think people need to sit back, relax and enjoy the talents of the deep backfield they're about to watch on game days. Nearly every one of them will have a highlight by the end of the season.

Expats: The Hogs' special teams play has been pretty ugly for the last few years. How much of an impact is John L. Smith having, and do you expect the unit to be significantly improved this year?

Marcello: As good a coach as John L. Smith is, he can't control Alex Tejada's mind on the football field. That is totally up to Mr. Tejada of Springdale. Kickers are fickle and, in speaking with Tejada this pre-season, he absolutely understands that the Razorbacks' kicking game has been an unneeded struggle the last several years.

Brennan O'Donohoe, anyone?

But knowing that and BLOCKING THAT out of your mind when you're on the football field in a pressure situation are two different things. Tejada didn't do that last season, obviously. The problem this season is that, if he melts down with a delay of game, kick out-of-bounds, misses an extra point and a field goal, who is going to replace him?

... Anyone? Bueller?

I think the biggest change you're going to see in special teams is the yards-per-return average on punt returns. The Hogs averaged 5.3 yards per return last season, which was absolutely dreadful. Joe Adams is going to give the Hogs some speed and a home-run threat there this season.

On punt and kick blocks, it'll be interesting to see if the Anthony Leon's 6-foot-4 frame has a blocked field goal or extra point in the middle of the field.

Expats: Speaking of the weaknesses of last year's team, what kind of performance do you expect out of the offensive line and the defense?

Marcello:That will be very interesting because both lines are considered a strength right now. But we all know the Hogs gave up a 46 sacks last season for an average of nearly four a game, which was second-to-last in the FBS. Go figure. That number has to improve. Maybe you'll see that change. Maybe Casey Dick was holding onto the ball too long last season? Who knows.

Same with the defensive line. They didn't get much pressure on the quarterback last season, finishing tied for 50th in the nation. So, what you have here are two lines with some obvious talent. Guys like OT DeMarcus Love, DT Malcolm Sheppard and DE Jake Bequette are obvious anchors. But, really, where are the faults?

Well, on the defense, it's the edges. Not a lot of pass rush off the edge last season. Can Bequette and Damario Ambrose change that?

And what about the offensive line? Have they learned their various pass blocking schemes to a comfortable point? Judging from what we've seen in the pre-season, the offensive line is going to have some struggles and there will be a few sacks here and there. Maybe not as many as last year, but there is some worry with pressure. The Hogs weren't counting sacks as much as they should in the pre-season. If they had, the Hogs would have given up about 10 during one of the marathon scrimmages, which probably would have equalled four or five sacks in an actual game.

Ouch.

Expats: If the Hogs are going to upset anybody, which team will it be? On the flip side, is there any game that Hog fans are chalking up as an easy victory that concerns you?

Marcello: If there is one team the Hogs will upset early in the season, I'd say Georgia or Alabama. Georgia, obviously, is the easy pick right now for many fans but a lot is going to be told about the Bulldogs after this weekend's trip to Oklahoma State.

It will be interesting to see how the fans react if the Hogs drop both of those games to enter the Texas A&M tilt in Arlington, Texas with a 1-2 record.

The game the Hogs are most primed for an upset is that Ole Miss game, though. That one, if the Hogs get up early, could get ugly.

As for a game fans may be chalking up as an easy win, but probably shouldn't? Auburn and Troy. Never count out Gus Malzahn and I believe quarterback Chris Todd is going to have the Tigers on the upswing by the time the Hogs hook up with them Oct. 10.

And Troy has a lot of firepower. The Trojans really showed some weaknesses in the LSU Tigers the week before the Hogs upset them, 31-30, in the season finale in the Rock. Troy was up 31-3 on LSU in the Bayou in the third quarter before the Tigers fought back for a 40-31 win.

Don't for a second think Larry Blakeney's apparent words of predicting an upset of the Hogs this season is anything to sneeze at. That game, if the Hogs' defense doesn't show marked improvement by Nov. 14, could be a shoot out.

We all know Arkansas' schedule is very difficult this season, so saying 6-6 should be looked at as a failure is an absolutely ridiculous statement.

There are a lot teams with big-time fire power on the schedule and there are also a few hidden mines in Arkansas' pig pen this season.

Airmail That Thing!

Acid Reign — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 08:30:12 -0000

Chris Todd trips, and shovels the ball to Ben Tate for a 27-yard gain!

War Eagle, everybody! Today's post will take a look at returning SEC quarterbacks, and their chances in 2009. As usual, a few stars return, and a whole lot of guys hoping to step up. Few would argue that Tim Tebow is one of the best in the country, and it's pretty certain that big numbers will be expected of Jevan Snead and Ryan Mallett. Beyond that, it's a slate of guys that had questionable stats, limited starts, or both.

It's been argued in numerous places in the past, that if you're going to pick one stat (other than wins and losses), as an indicator of a team's success, it would be "net yards per pass." (Google that quote, if you'd like to read more on the logic.) To figure net yards per pass, take passing yards, subtract out 50 yards for each interception, and subtract sack yardage. Divide the result by the number of passing attempts. The interception penalty is a sort of a median guess as to how much field position an interception costs a team. Since interceptions and sacks kill drives, they are important.

Whether a team runs to set up the pass, or passes to set up the run, net yards per pass is an important stat. A high rating indicates a preponderance of big plays, which leads to high scores. A low rating indicates that defenses can pack it in close to the line of scrimmage, and stifle the offense. Even a predominately run-oriented team must be able to be a threat passing, to have success. The two teams that threw least in 2008, Florida and Alabama, ended up in the SEC Championship game. However, their yards per pass stats were 1^st, and 4^th, respectively. Let's look at the results from 2008:

East

Team	Net Yards Per Pass	Opponent	SEC Division Finish
Florida	8.0	2.2	1st
Georgia	7.5	4.6	2nd
Vanderbilt	2.4	3.0	3rd
South Carolina	2.9	3.5	4th
Tennessee	3.7	2.9	5th
Kentucky	3.6	4.7	6th

West

Team	Net Yards Per Pass	Opponent	SEC Division Finish
Alabama	5.3	3.7	1st
Ole Miss	6.0	4.1	2nd
LSU	3.9	5.2	3rd
Arkansas	4.4	5.1	4th
Auburn	3.4	4.0	5th
Mississippi State	3.2	4.9	6th

Some of the teams that finished highly in yards per pass, finished with mediocre records. Why? Because they gave up high net yards per pass to their opponents. LSU and Arkansas come to mind. The team with the poorest yards per pass average, Vanderbilt, actually won a bowl game. The reason? They finished 3^rd in defending net yards per pass. 20 interceptions will always help your win column!

Teams that finish at 4.0 or better tend to sustain drives and score points. Conversely, holding an opponent below 4.0 keeps them from getting first downs, and keeps them off the scoreboard. With those concepts in mind, let's take a look at the career numbers for the returning SEC starters:

East

Team	Quarterback	Career Net Yards Per Pass
Florida	Tim Tebow	8.6
Georgia	Joe Cox	6.6
Vanderbilt	Mackenzi Adams Larry Smith	3.8 3.4
South Carolina	Stephen Garcia	3.5
Tennessee	Jonathan Crompton	3.8
Kentucky	Mike Hartline	3.9

West

Team	Quarterback	Career Net Yards Per Pass
Alabama	Greg McElroy	8.1
Ole Miss	Jevan Snead	6.3
LSU	Jordan Jefferson Jarrett Lee	5.1 4.0
Arkansas	Ryan Mallett	4.6
Auburn	Chris Todd	4.4
Mississippi State	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	4.9 1.4

Along with media favorites Tim Tebow and Jevan Snead, are some surprises: Greg McElroy and Joe Cox. The latter two haven't played as much, and one might be tempted to throw out the results because of insufficient data. I think you have to remember that the whole offensive team helps create the stat. With good talent around them, I think McElroy and Cox will do well, this year.

Where does this analysis leave Auburn? Chris Todd is currently ranked last in the West. Were Auburn in the East, Todd would rank 3^rd. In the SEC overall, Todd finishes 8^th. It's not all gloom and doom, though. Todd put up most of that stat with a bad throwing arm, and in a dysfunctional offense. And Todd still managed to beat out six quarterbacks on the list above! Just about every facet of the Auburn offense looks to have improved over the off-season, including a beefed up line, better receiver play, and a surgically repaired arm. While most quarterbacks improve with experience, we should see quite a jump for Todd, this year.

Another quarterback who should improve dramatically is Ryan Mallett, of Arkansas. Mallett compiled his stats as a freshman in Lloyd Carr's moribund Michigan offense. Under Bobby Petrino, Casey Dick finished 5^th in the league last season. With a gun like Mallett has, the sky's the limit!

Some of the guys starting this year at quarterback will struggle. Much of that is due to new systems and suspect supporting casts. Jonathan Crompton's had to learn his 3^rd college offense, and it's a fairly complicated West Coast scheme, too. Crompton's best deep threat, Gerald Jones, is out. Mississippi State is sorely lacking playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, beyond Anthony Dixon. The same could be said of Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.

Just think, folks! We've got one week left, just ONE WEEK, before the SEC season kicks off! I can't wait to be in front of my TV, for the Gamecocks' battle with N. C. State! It's going to be another exciting year!

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index: Let's Look At the Numbers

Richard Pittman — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:25:42 -0000

On Friday, I introduced you (again) to the ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index. It is an attempt to improve upon the traditional, but not terribly helpful, "Passer Rating". It is measured in yards per attempt, with bonuses and penalties for interceptions and touchdowns, and includes quarterback rushing statistics as well. Here is the formula:

Passer Rating = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 5*(First down completions and runs) + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Turnovers)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

You should think of this as giving a value for how much yardage a quarterback is worth when his number is called, with bonuses and penalties.

I was asked by LSUJonno to take a look at some numbers. I agreed, but there is one problem with that request. One of the statistics I use to compile the index is not generally kept. Without good statistics on 1st Downs, it is impossible to get a good indication of where the numbers are. So, I calculated the numbers simply taking out the 1st down statistics. This should make a dramatic impact on the absolute scale of numbers, as most quarterbacks will probably get 1st downs on approximately half of their completed passes. With a 1st down being worth 5 bonus yards above and beyond the yardage actually gained, you can expect that the actual numbers using the full formula would be 1 to 2 yards higher than are given.

Also, please note, that according to ESPN statistics, no quarterback in the SEC lost a fumble, so that part of the formula washes out.

Before we take a look at the numbers, let's take a look at the perceptions. If you ask most observers, they would say that in 2008, there were 3 top-tier quarterbacks in the SEC: Tim Tebow of Florida, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, and Jevan Snead of Ole Miss. After that, most would say that there was a second tier of John Parker Wilson of Bama and Casey Dick of Arkansas. Then, there was a monstrous collection of suck throughout the conference. Let's see if the numbers bear this out:

ATVSQBPI Ratings for 2008 SEC Quarterbacks:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Most of our initial prejudices appear to be born out. There is definitely a first tier, and it includes the quarterbacks we would have expected. Tebow, Stafford, and Snead, and no others.

While Casey Dick and John Parker Wilson were the next two quarterbacks, the second tier didn't quite develop as I would have expected. Jarrett Lee is right there with him, and for that I think you can thank the fact that the formula I use does not distinguish between interceptions returned for a touchdowns and interceptions with no return. After Lee, it is not all that far to the Smelleys and Burnses of the conference.

Also, it is important to realize that other than the top 3 quarterbacks on the list, almost no one had a very good TD/Int ratio. Nine quarterbacks in the SEC threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and 4 had ratios pretty close to 1:1. In the entire SEC, only the following QBs (among the ones with appreciable statistics) had a TD/Int ratio better than 1.5:1: Tebow, Stafford, Snead, Nathan Dick, Jordan Jefferson, and Chris Nickson. That's it.

I did not list the raw statistics, but another feature here is that every quarterbacks rating suffered as a result of their rushing statistics, which is not surprising considering "rushes" includes sacks as well as mad scrambles to escape a rush, which often result in very short gains. The question becomes how much do the rushing statistics hurt each quarterback, and how are they relative to each other. The unfortunate side effect is that quarterbacks who had a lot of designed runs suffered disproportionately, and probably unfairly. Kodi Burns and Stephen Garcia especially saw their ratings suffer.

Tim Tebow's ratings did not suffer much for his running because he's just that darn good at it, and his touchdown numbers really kept him high up the list.

Jarrett Lee was easily the least effective rusher, failing to score a rushing touchdown and averaging a whopping 8.82 yard loss per rush. The good news is that he did not have a lot of rushes, which means he did a good job of getting rid of the ball. But then again, see his 16 interceptions.

It does verify what I told Team Speed Kills back when they were previewing LSU, which was that Jarrett Lee was not the worst QB in the conference. In fact, statistically (both in passer ratings and in ATVSQBPI) he was towards the middle of the pack. People just remember the returns, which weren't really his fault beyond the fact that he threw the interceptions. But everyone threw interceptions except Tebow, Snead, Stafford, and Nickson. Lee was not good, but there were a LOT of 'not good' quarterbacks in the SEC. Among the 'not good' quarterbacks, Lee was actually one of the better ones, especially if you don't blame him for the fact that so many of his interceptions had big returns.

You can decide for yourself if those returns are his fault, beyond the mere fact that he threw the interception that led to the return.

It's too bad I could not add in the first down statistics, as it would have been interesting to see if they made a significant difference in how the quarterbacks ranked.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data if you're interested.

2008 Quarterback Statistics

Post-Spring Previews: Arkansas Razorbacks

Gamecock Man — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:51:49 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

4 months ago: Arkansas football coach Bobby Petrino speaks to the media during a news conference at the SEC Media Days in Hoover, Ala. on Wednesday, July 22, 2009 (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

Browse more photos »

After traveling to Knoxville to take on the Vols, the Gamecocks head to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas is another team looking to rebound from a shaky 2008. Luckily, momentum is in their favor. After playing poorly early in the season--see the close wins over cupcakes and absolutely ugly blowout losses to elite opponents--the Hogs played well to close out 2008. Moreover, they should only improve with a year in Bobby Petrino's system under their belts. Petrino may be one of the game's true professional slimeballs, but he's also a fantastic coach that came close to getting Louisville to the national title game. To understand the gravity of that accomplishment, take a look at what has happened there now that Petrino is gone. Petrino's offense was undoubtedly hampered last year with Casey Dick--an average quarterback at best--under center. However, this year he has Ryan Mallett taking over quarterbacking duties. Mallett will make mistakes at times, but he'll also be brilliant at times. The tools are in place for this to be a prolific Arkansas offense. While they probably won't win more than seven or eight because of Mallett's youth and a suspect defense, this is a team that will undoubtedly make for exciting football and perhaps an upset of one of the conference's big-name teams.

Let's see how we matchup against them.

Offense

The Hogs run Bobby Petrino's power spread, a modified pro-style attack. Often mischaracterized as a coach that likes to air it out, Petrino believes being able to run the ball is just as important as being able to go long. To this end, Petrino likes to move back and forth between spread formations and power-I formations. The spread formations usually allow him to get the ball to his receivers on the outside, whereas the power-I allows him to run the ball down hill. Petrino likes to throw deep to the tight ends out of the I, as well. His offense is also notable for running similar plays out of multiple formations, which I'd imagine is confusing for defenses.

Quarterback

After sitting out for a year after transferring from Michigan, highly recruited Ryan Mallett takes over under center for the Hogs. Mallett is a prototypical pro-style quarterback: he's big, tall, and can throw the ball a mile. Mallett should thrive in Petrino's system, where his vision and arm will give him lots of advantages. Mallett is somewhat inexperienced and may show it at times. However, while this is Mallett's first year playing at Arkansas and he can thus be expected to make some mistakes, it's not like he's a freshman. He had significant experience playing at Michigan in his freshman year and has had a year to learn Petrino's offense since then. His one liability other than his relative inexperience is that he's kind of slow because of his size. That could pose problems if he doesn't get great protection, which is a distinct possiblity. Overall, though, he looks to be poised for a big season throwing the ball.

We've yet to really see what Mallett can do, whereas we've at least seen Garcia play well in spurts, so I can't give Mallett the advantage here. I'm tempted to, though. Mallett is good and he will thrive throwing to a talented group of receivers in Bobby Petrino's system. Plus, Garcia frankly has almost just as much to prove at this point as Mallett. It will be interesting to see what kind of year these two are having when this game rolls around in November.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

The Hogs return one of the SEC's best tailbacks in senior Michael Smith. Smith, who spent his first two seasons in the shadow of Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, broke out last year for over 1000 yards. Although small, Smith is a tough runner. His size, though, makes him vulnerable to injury, as the Hogs saw late last season. They'll look to lighten his load this year. The Hogs will look at a host of players in the rotation, although some injuries that occurred during the spring may limit some of those players' effectiveness. The primary backup role may, in fact, go to highly touted freshman Ronnie Wingo, Jr., one of the Hogs' prize recruits and a guy we'll probably hear a lot more of after Smith graduates.

I call this a slight advantage for Arkansas. We have more experienced depth than the Hogs at this position, and depth has to be a concern for the Hogs right now. However, Arky does have some nice young players that stack up well against most SEC teams, and Smith pushes the balance in their favor.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Arkansas returns an experienced group of talented receivers that could be poised to put up big numbers if Mallet and offensive line step up. The big name in the group is tight end D. J. Williams, who is one of the nation's best ends. Williams has and will continue to thrive in Petrino's offense, which frequently utilizes the tight end as a long-yardage passing option from what look like power-running formations. Lucas Miller, Jarius Wright, London Crawford and others fill out what should be a very effective group.

I give Arkansas another slight advantage here. I think our receivers have the potential to be as good as this group, but they have to prove it, first.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Offensive Line

Here's where things get a little murky for what has the potential to be a great Arkansas offense. Last year's line had lots of trouble with both pass protection and run blocking. However, pass protection was the biggest problem, with the Hogs giving up a whopping 46 sacks. If problems continue this year, they may keep the Hogs from having the kind of year offensively they're otherwise capable of having. The fact that Ryan Mallett is hardly the kind of quarterback that can evade sacks with his feet makes protecting him all the more important.

This year's more experienced unit should be better, but they'll really need to be a lot better for the Hogs to truly live up to their potential on offense. Arkansas returns three starters as well as one player that started in 2007 but redshirted last year. It's hard to say who will play where; expect a lot of shifting around on this unit throughout the year, although Ray Dominguez looks to be the guy at the important left tackle position. The reserves are mostly inexperienced. All in all, there are still a lot of question marks here.

I'm going to call this a slight advantage for Carolina. Neither team was good up front last year and both have lots to prove, but we return a bit more experience and should start playing well sooner.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Let's look at the defenses after the jump.

Defense

To put it simply, the Hogs had a bad defense last year. Arky finished at or near the bottom of the SEC in most major categories. To put things into perspective, we managed to score 34 points against them. Experienced defensive coordinator Willy Robinson must get better play out of this group if Arkansas is to contend in the West.

Defensive Line

The Hogs' front four--which returns four starters--is led by tackle Malcolm Sheppard, who was second in the conference in tackles for loss a year ago. Adrian Davis, Zach Stadther, Lavunce Askew and Alfred Davis should round out the bulk of the rotation, although some newcomers may see time as well. This unit wasn't very good against the run last year and has focused on bulking up this offseason. I expect better production from them, but this may still be a team that good teams can run against fairly easily.

I give us a slight advantage here. There's no reason that our line can't be one of the best in the SEC this year, while Arkansas simply has lots to prove despite its experience.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

This is another fairly experienced group. Senior Wendel Davis is perhaps the defense's overall leader. Davis missed the first part of last season, and when he returned, the defense clearly improved. Freddy Burton and Jerry Franklin round out the group. This should be another improved unit, but depth may be an issue here.

I give us a slight advantage here. Again, Arkansas has a lot to prove, whereas we have one of the league's better units with Eric Norwood and Rodney Paulk leading the way and a talented group of underclassmen providing depth.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

Secondary is perhaps the biggest cause for concern for this Arkansas defense. The most talented players just might be five-star freshman corner Darius Winton and highly touted JUCO transfer safety Rudell Crim. Both will push for playing time, as the returning starters all struggled last year. Corners Ramon Broadway and Isaac Madison have experience, but neither exactly instills fear in opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Safeties Elton Ford and Jerico Nelson also return with experience, but Ford will likely have to fight to keep Crim away from his job.

I call this a push. Both teams have some talented players but will have to rely on freshmen and must worry about depth problems. It's worth point out here that our secondary versus Bobby Petrino's offense is a cause for concern.

Verdict: Push

Special Teams

Kicker Alex Tejada struggled mightily last year after a solid 2007. The Hogs hope he can regain his old form. The Hogs had trouble with some of their return units last year, but should be better this year, especially with Petrino's mentor and former Michigan State coach John L. Smith taking over the special teams.

I'll call this a push. Arkansas doesn't have a reliable kicker at this point, while we don't even know who ours will be quite yet. Punting should be OK for both teams. Both teams look to have good kick return games but will need to figure out punt returns. Both should have decent coverage units. All in all it's hard to make a call right now on which team should have better units.

Verdict: Push

Head Coaches

As I said at the beginning of this preview, I think Bobby Petrino is one of the best coaches in the game. He almost won a national title at Louisville, for goodness's sake. The last two years haven't been nice to the guy, but let's face it: he wasn't exactly playing with a stacked deck last year or in 2007 in Atlanta. He has more pieces in place this year, and it should show with an extra couple of wins. I expect the team will continue to get better over the next few years and will regularly compete with Alabama and LSU in the West.

I'll give Arkansas a slight advantage here. Petrino may not have as many conference titles as Spurrier, but he has been relevant more recently.

Verdict: Slight advantage Arkansas

Overall

Although their strengths are somewhat different, in a lot of ways these are fairly evenly matched teams. Arkansas should have a slightly better offense and we should have a slightly better defense, but the gaps aren't that large. My general impression is that this will be one of the higher scoring games of the year for us; Arkansas's offense is capable of putting up poitns against anybody, and we're capable of putting up points against their defense. Unfotunatley, if the game does become a shootout, I'll have to give the advantage to Petrino and Arkansas. To make matters worse, the game is in Fayetteville, and the atmosphere will likely be raucous if Arky is still in the running for a Western Division crown. If we're to win, we'll have to counter these Arkansas advantages by putting lots of pressure on Mallett, getting some sacks, and hopefully forcing a couple of game-changing turnovers. That kind of performance can't be taken for granted, though, and I have a feeling we'll lose this one.

Predict: seven-point Arkansas victory

Poll

The Arkansas game will result in a...

Blowout Carolina victory

3 votes

Close Carolina victory

27 votes

Close Arkansas victory

104 votes

Blowout Arkansas victory

79 votes

213 votes | Poll has closed

Darren McFadden is Funkier Than You Are

John Expat — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 01:24:32 -0000

The SEC Media Days have begun, and there's lots of news coming out already - Bobby Petrino looking relaxed and cracking jokes about Twitter, Malcom Sheppard discussing how he got shot in the eye with an arrow (!!!) as a kid and, most importantly, the all-consuming hunt for the solitary coach who dared not vote for St. Tim Tebow as QB of the preseason All-SEC team.

But, we at Arkansas Expats like to take the road less traveled, so we're here to bring you details of the week's true top story: Casey Dick's recent wedding. According to the Benfield Photography blog, it was quite the soiree and included appearances by some notable ex-Hogs - Darren McFadden and Marcus Monk among them (Houston Nutt's and Mitch Mustain's invites were probably just lost in the mail).

Jokes aside, we didn't start this site to become a society column, so we'll get to the main point of this post...this awesome photo of the best player in Razorback history getting funky on the dance floor:

We miss you D-Mac!

(Photo courtesy of Benfield Photography...they have others on their site if you're really curious. And thanks to ArkansasSports 360 for the link.)

Big Games On the Schedule, Part 5, 11/28 Arkansas

Richard Pittman — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:55:46 -0000

via assets.nydailynews.com

Hehe.. assets.

Inner Butthead is now purged. We move along. The last "big game" on the schedule is the last game on the schedule. The Arkansas Razorbacks were one of the worst teams not only in the conference but in all of FBS football at the beginning of last year, barely surviving against FCS opponents Western Illinois and UL-Monroe, beating both in close, hard-fought, not-decided-until-the-final-moments games. They were then beaten to a bloody mess by Alabama, Texas, and Florida.

But by the Florida game, they were showing signs of life. The game was reasonably close going into the 4th quarter. Alright, 17-7 is not exactly a nail-biter but it's not terrible. A bad 4th quarter turned a respectable showing into a 38-7 drubbing, but by this time running back Michael Smith had emerged as one of the very best runners in the conference despite being a tiny 5'7" 175#. A very young team that was playing a lot of freshmen was starting to get better.

From this point on, Arkansas was a legitimate team. They would still have some stumbles along the way, losing to Mississippi State and Kentucky (the loss to Kentucky occurred in a game in which Michael Smith played very little due to injury), but they would beat Auburn and Tulsa and put a scare into Ole Miss. They would, of course, beat LSU to close out their season.

The 2009 Arkansas Razorbacks promise to be a good team, building on what they accomplished towards the end of last year. They are almost everyone's pick to be an SEC dark horse, so much so that it is really hard to say they're actually a dark horse rather than just a good team.

via www.hogcountryonline.com

If you are paying any attention at all to Arkansas, you know a bit about Ryan Mallett. He is the former big-time recruit from Texas who originally signed with Michigan and played one year there, eventually earning the starting job, albeit on a team that failed to reach a bowl game. After reports of homesickness trickled out early in his stay there and after Rich Rodriguez was hired, Mallett decided to bolt and move closer to home to Arkansas, where he was given a hero's welcome by newly hired head coach Bobby Petrino, who was quite understandably trying to find the heir apparent to Casey Dick.

Mallett is a big (6'7") strong-armed quarterback who is not likely to beat you with his legs. He is going to be a ball-distributor, which is perfect for the Petrino offensive philosophy. In fact, he may be the best quarterback talent that Petrino has ever coached.

He'll have a few targets to pass to. DJ Williams was one of the most productive receivers in the league last year as sort of a tight end/wide receiver hybrid. The rest of the receiver corps is a bit undersized, but productive. London Crawford is the biggest at 6'2" and the rest are below 6'0". They are small but quick receivers in the Tyrone Prothro mold.

If there's a weakness on offense, it will be on the line, where they struggled last year. Still, a young team gets better, and Bobby Petrino is an outstanding coach for whatever his personal failings may be.

Defensively, there are no big names there, but the unit made great strides towards the end of last year. Still, they were last in the league in scoring defense and total defense, and that will have to improve more than a little bit. A unit that ended up being surprisingly competent last year needs to find some difference-makers.

Look for Louisiana product Jerico Nelson to emerge as a very solid safety for this team. He's little, and for one reason or another the Tigers didn't really want him in the 2008 class, but he was an immediate contributor for Arkansas and could be an emerging star on this team.

Last year's game still leaves a bad taste in our mouths. Arkansas was a terrible defensive team, and in particular terrible against the run. Charles Scott should have been able to run wild on that team and get 6 yards a pop. Instead, he was mostly bottled up, averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. The problem was likely that the Tigers could not legitimately sell the pass as a big threat with true freshman Jordan Jefferson making his first start of his career and being used primarily in a running capacity until the end. It was a tough start to Jefferson's tenure as our starting quarterback and I'm sure he learned a lot from it.

Still, we were winning the game and on the verge of victory when our pass defense, pretty much a failure all year, did what it did best. It failed, giving up a long drive at the end, culminating in a 4th down pass to the end zone caught for a touchdown over Chris Hawkins, who was caught in one-on-one coverage. Even then we had a chance to win it at the end when we got good field position and needed only about 15 yards to have a legitimate shot at a game-winning field goal. A few ill-advised deep passes fell incomplete and we ended the game with a desperation field goal from the parking lot that did not make it.

This year, it's going to be a war. I suspect that by the end of the season both of these teams will be much better than they were at the end of last year. The game will also be on a Saturday night for the first time.. ever? Of course, since this is the last game of the season, this is the matchup we know the least about. It is the most likely to be affected by injuries or by players who improve over the course of the season. Right now, we wonder if Arkansas's run defense is going to improve from bad (notwithstanding their game against us) to OK or better. We wonder if LSU will have a good pass defense, and whether Arkansas will have more than one really good receiver.

This is the end of this little series. We will have more coverage later.