SB Nation - Michael Smith

Know Your Opponent: Arkansas Razorbacks

jeremyflint — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:07:35 -0000

Here we go with another round of Know Your Opponent. This time we are talking to fellow SBN bloggers Arkansas Expats. Here is what they had to say about the game this weekend. You can check out my answers to their questions as well.

1. Arkansas seems to be a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They are near the top of the conference offensively, but rank near the bottom (or at the bottom) when it comes to defense. Why is there such a big difference between the two sides of the ball this year?

That's easy: talent.

Obviously everyone knows about Ryan Mallett at QB by now, but even beyond that Arkansas has really good players at every one of the skill positions on offense. Our eight TDs last week against Troy were scored by seven different people, and that's pretty much how it's been all season...lots of points of attack.

Unfortunately for us Hog fans, we don't have the talent on the defensive side to match. There are probably a lot of reasons for this, but the bottom line is that we just aren't as good on that side of the ball.

Also, that talent disparity includes our coaching staff, too. Bobby Petrino is regarded as one of the top offensive minds in the game even by his many detractors, and he's lived up to that reputation during his time at Arkansas. Although I'm sure defensive coordinator Willy Robinson generally knows what he's doing, my guess is that he's not in that league.

2. I have seen very little of Arkansas this year. I think the only games I watched was the loss to Alabama and the Georgia game, which I swear was really a couple of PAC-10 teams dressing up as SEC teams. Aside from QB Ryan Mallet, who are the playmakers on offense and defense that Bulldog fans should keep an eye on?

Well, as I was saying in the above answer, we have a lot of threats on offense. You never really know who's going to be the star in any particular game, but I'll start by calling out the receiving corps - WRs Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs and TE D.J. Williams are all really good, and you can count on some big plays by those guys. Our running game struggled in the earlier part of the season, but has improved lately. The starter is Michael Smith, but he's backed up by big back Broderick Green, sophomore Dennis Johnson (who also returns kicks), and freshmen Knile Davis and Ronnie Wingo, Jr.

Also as noted above, we don't have as many playmakers on defense. Malcolm Sheppard anchors our defensive line and will be a key part of our effort to stop Anthony Dixon. LB Jerrico Nelson is also usually in the middle of the action.

3. Mississippi State has never beaten Arkansas on the road (Fayetteville or Little Rock). Why do you think coming to Arkansas is such a tough road game for most teams in the SEC? Is it the travel? The atmosphere? The annoying pig calls?

Hard to say, exactly. Arkansas is pretty unusual this day and age in that we have two home fields. Most games are in Fayetteville, but the general feeling is that Little Rock actually offers more of a home field advantage - it's a louder stadium and the fans tend to be a little rowdier there. (Note: I'm from Little Rock, so there might be some bias in that statement.)

I have no idea what you're referring to by "annoying pig calls". If by some chance you're referring to the mighty "Woo Pig Sooie" Hog call - the greatest fan chant in all of sports - then yes, I'm sure that usually intimidates opponents into submission as well.

4. Give me some of the key matchups that you are looking for this Saturday on offense and defense.

The most important matchup for me will be the Hogs defensive line against Anthony Dixon. I expect Dixon to have a big day, but if he has a huge day Arkansas will be in trouble. Our nightmare scenario is a game where he cranks out about 220 yards and 3 TDs, and leads a bunch of clock-killing drives to keep the ball away from Ryan Mallett and the offense, while also opening up some possibilities in your passing game. If that happens, we're legitimately in trouble.

Next after that will be Ryan Mallett versus your defensive line. If they can constantly get in his face and force him out of his comfort zone then it will be hard to get on track offensively. If he has time to stand back there and find his receivers, then watch out.

5. How do you see this game playing out? Mississippi State is a run-based spread offense, with flashes of a passing game. Arkansas is allowing 132 yards on the ground and is ranked near the bottom in pass defense and total defense. Will the offense just rack up enough points to put the Bulldogs out of reach or will it be a close game that comes down to the last few minutes?

I think this will be a tough game for the Hogs. You guys have just missed out on beating some good teams, and will be fired up to get a step closer to bowl eligibility. I expect a tough, physical game that's close for most of the time. Mallett and the offense are playing really well right now, so they'll put up some points - but I also think Dixon will counter with a big game of his own (at least one 50+ yard TD run is pretty much guaranteed). In the end, though, I think the Hogs' "bend but don't break" defense will keep the Bulldogs out of the end zone enough times to pull out the win.

Previewing South Carolina at Arkansas: Q & A with Arkansas Expats

Gamecock Man — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:13:41 -0000

More photos » by Danny Johnston - AP

about 1 month ago: Arkansas wide receiver Lucas Miller, left, and Arkansas tight end D.J. Williams celebrate Miller's third quarter touchdown in the NCAA college football game with Eastern Michigan in Fayetteville, Ark., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009. Arkansas defeated Eastern Michigan 63-27. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

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I got together with our SB Nation colleagues Arkansas Expats to preview this weekend's game. Here's what they had to say. (My answers to their questions are here.)

1. Bobby Petrino's tenure at Arkansas started off badly in 2008 and then pulled it together a bit late in that year, leading to speculation that 2009 would be a breakout year for the Hogs. However, while Arkansas has played well at times this year--particularly in the victory over Auburn and the close loss to Florida--it has also struggled and doesn't seem very far ahead of where it was late in 2008. Is this an accurate assessment, and how do Arkansas fans feel about Petrino's performance at this point?

Well, in one way the Hogs are very much ahead of where they were last year, and that's on offense. Last year, the Hogs averaged 21.9 points per game, which ranked seventh in the SEC, and 373.1 total yards of offense per game, the fourth-highest average in the conference. This year, they're averaging 35.9 points and 438 total yards of total offense per game, both of which rank second in the SEC. Ryan Mallett is a huge upgrade over Casey Dick, and the Hogs receiving corps - led by Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams - is as electric a group as we've ever seen in Fayetteville.

However, those gaudy statistics at least partially obscure the fact that the offense is fairly one-dimensional - the running game has struggled to get going this year, and tight-end D.J. Williams, a true star last year, has yet to develop a good chemistry with Mallett. Our special teams unit continues to struggle at times, and the defense too often has been downright woeful.

Add it all up, and we think the Hogs are noticeably better than last year (the 2008 team could never have taken a Florida squad down to the wire in Gainesville) but perhaps not as improved as many Hog fans were hoping. There were lots of predictions of an 8-4 regular-season record this summer, and obviously that mark is going to be very tough to attain now.

Despite the team's various struggles this season, Hog fans are still very supportive of Petrino (although there was some grumbling after Ole Miss and Houston Nutt whipped Arkansas in Oxford). Razorback fans can be as unrealistic as any fans in the country, but the large majority of us seem to realize that Bobby inherited a program that will require more than two seasons to rebuild.

2. Ryan Mallett has had an impressive season so far. However, outside of the Georgia and Auburn games, his big numbers haven't always translated into lots of points or wins in big games. What has Mallett done well this year, and what does he need to continue to work on to take his game to the next level?

Mallett has an absolute cannon of an arm, and this season the Hogs are serious threats to score quickly and often via the deep pass. But too often it seems, the deep pass has been the Razorbacks' only way of scoring. As mentioned above, Mallett and D.J. Williams have yet to click, and Arkansas' short passing game could use some improvement.

Ryan has struggled with his accuracy at times, and his mobility is an issue against aggressive defenses. He's only a sophomore, so it stands to reason that he should improve in most of the above-mentioned areas. Except for the mobility issue, that is. Not sure there's much he can do about that.

3. Despite having more experience than a year ago, Arkansas continues to have a shaky defense, especially against the pass. What has gone wrong this year, and is there light at the end of the tunnel for this particular group?

Well, the Hogs' defense may be more experienced than last year, but it's not much more talented. Although it’s quite possible that Petrino’s first pick for the D.C. job (Ellis Johnson – a guy you might be familiar with) would be having more success with this group than Willy Robinson had he stayed in Fayetteville, there’s only so much that can be done with a group that’s thin in so many key areas. The Hogs’ staff is making defense the recruiting priority, but of course that won’t help us stop whatever Spurrier has planned for Saturday.

Having said that, the Hogs' defense actually has had a few bright spots this year. We seem to do well against spread teams, having held both Auburn and Florida far below their usual outputs, and the defensive line, led by Malcolm Sheppard, is actually pretty strong. Last time we checked, Arkansas was towards the top of the country in making tackles for a loss...the only problem is that those tackles are often followed by a defensive breakdown that gives up a big play.

As far as a light at the end of the tunnel goes, we'd like to believe that a few more good recruits and a more consistent across-the-board effort from the whole team will solve a lot of the basic woes. But, until that happens we're going to have to rely on Mallett's arm to win games for us.

4. Because you're our Western Division opponent and the series has been back and forth and has had some really great games, a lot of Gamecocks see this series as a budding rivalry of sorts. Where would you put the Gamecocks on your list of SEC rivals?

That's a great question. Rivalries in the SEC are a funny thing - by the time the Hogs and Gamecocks joined the party, most of the other guys had been playing (and hating on) each other for about 100 years. Plus, both of us haven't really beaten the key teams consistently enough since joining to engender too much significant ill-will ... we're more in the "pesky nuisance" category.

So, there are a few teams Razorback fans particularly look forward to playing (and, ideally, beating), but we'm not sure if you could consider those rivalries in the true sense of the word. LSU is definitely one, and Ole Miss is becoming another (for reasons that are probably obvious). As far as South Carolina goes, there's certainly potential there for it to become a solid rivalry - we play every year and both fanbases are sort of looking for that mutual hate we described earlier - but from the Arkansas side we don't think we're quite there yet. We think most Hog fans tend to focus on the Western Division teams first and foremost, but we'd be all for getting something going!

5. Prediction. Who will win and how will it go down?

Well, for starters we should put in a plug for your readers to visit our site tomorrow when we unveil the official prognostication from our staff soothsayer, Rasputin. We lack his predictive powers, but the homers in us have to say Arkansas in a close, probably fairly high-scoring game.

Obviously, both teams really need this one in terms of setting up a strong finish to the season, and we expect it to be pretty intense (or as intense as a game played at the crack of dawn can be). Your offense will probably break off at least a couple of really big plays (it's apparently written into the SEC by-laws that each opponent will have a 70+ yard scoring play against us this year), and your defense (especially Eric Norwood) concerns us, but hopefully a well-rested Michael Smith and a newly healthy Joe Adams will give us the offensive spark needed to put us over the top.

Thanks to Arkansas Expats for participating in this Q & A.

Previewing South Carolina at Arkansas: Topics for Discussion on the Hogs' Offense

Gamecock Man — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:36:53 -0000

More photos » by Beth Hall - AP

4 months ago: In this photograph taken on Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett smiles while being interviewed during college football Media Day, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Beth Hall)

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The Hogs have one of the best offenses in the conference. Can we stop them, or will we have to win a shootout? A few thoughts:

Photon Torpedo Tube sums up some of my own thoughts on the game. Arkansas has a great offense, but they don't match up very well against us. The Hogs throw the ball a lot, and we have one of the best pass defenses in the country. Moreover, Bobby Petrino's team is distinctly vulnerable to a good pass rush, as their line is average and Ryan Mallett is one of the most immobile quarterbacks around. Our pass rush has been on and off this year, but it's shown that it's capable of doing big things in the N. C. State, Ole Miss, and Alabama games. A lot will be riding on how well Devin Taylor plays in Cliff Mattthew's stead. If he, Clifton Geathers, and Eric Norwood spend a lot of time in Mallett's grill, expect for us to ring up some sacks and for Arkansas to finish the game well below their usual level of production. If we don't get pressure, Arkansas will probably move the ball.
Arkansas is only ninth in the SEC in rushing offense. However, Petrino is not afraid to use the power running game, as he did last year when he didn't have a good quarterback. In fact, I'm kind of surprised that the Hogs are that low in rushing yards, as Petrino-coached teams typically run the ball well. (Like Steve Spurrier, Petrino is known for his passing game but in reality wants to use a balanced offense to set up big play opportunities.) Considering that we defend the run poorly and that Arkansas tailback Michael Smith is probably going to be back in the lineup, don't be surprised if Arkansas tries to establish the run to keep us from teeing off on Mallett. Whether or not we can slow Smith down will be key.
We need to force some turnovers in this game. Our pass defense has played well all season, but they've failed to take advantage of numerous interception opportunities. With Arkansas likely to throw the ball quite a few times Saturday, we should have more chances. We need to make it happen this time.

Alabama Preview

Richard Pittman — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:38:12 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

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Is it my imagination, or has the look of ATVS changed?

Anyway, a preview of the Alabama Crimson Tide would look awfully funny if it didn't start with Mark Ingram. I was surprised to find out that he is only 2nd in the conference in total rushing yards, behind Ben Tate of Auburn, but Tate has carried the ball 40 more times and has had an extra game to accumulate those yards. Ingram is running hard, getting 6.6 yards per attempt. Only Michael Smith of Arkansas (6.4 yards per carry) is getting close that average per carry among backs with lots of carries. Not only does he run the ball, but he has also caught 19 passes for 186 yards. That puts him in a tie for 2nd on the team in receptions and 4th in yards.

Ingram is a legitimate Heisman contender right now. He has scored 11 of Alabama's 26 offensive touchdowns, with 8 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving. He is also the "quarterback" of Alabama's Wildcat and Bobcat offenses (Wildcat means that Greg McElroy is lined up as a receiver; Bobcat means McElroy is not in the game). He may yet throw the ball, though they have not tried to sell that yet. He's Bama's most dangerous player.

After him, things get a little more dicey for the Crimson Tide.

Quarterback Greg McElroy started out the season strong, but he hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in 3 games, throwing 2 interceptions in that time. His ATVSQBPI in those three games has been 3.6, 1.5, and 4.4. That 4.4 sitting by itself is not awful, but when that's your best game in 3, there are problems. Despite this, Bama has won those three games, though they were somewhat fortunate to escape the Tennessee game with a win, as Ingram was contained. They hit a couple of long field goals and blocked a couple of long field goals to preserve a 12-10 win in that one, as we all remember.

McElroy is a typical college quarterback. He has decent arm strength and decent mobility, willing to take a few hits to help his team if need be, but more effective throwing the ball. He has struggled with accuracy and decision-making lately despite not being victimized by a lot of sacks.

If we want to discuss things like chickens and eggs and their relative temporal proximity, we can also talk about the struggles of Julio Jones, who through 8 games has only 20 receptions for only 229 yards and a touchdown. Julio Jones was supposed to be an All-American candidate, but you won't find him on any of the leaderboards in receptions or yardage in the conference. The leading receiver in the SEC is A.J. Green, who has over twice as many catches and over 3 times as many receiving yards. In Bama's last game against Tennessee, they made a conscious effort to get him more involved, giving him a lot of short and safe throws. He ended up with 7 catches for 54 yards.

In the Bama passing game, the receiver who scares me the most is Colin Peek, who has been deadly as a tight end over the middle of the field. He has been hurt though, or he would very likely be Bama's leading receiver both in catches and in yards. As it is, Julio Jones leads in catches, thanks to his 7 against Tennessee, and Marquis Maze, who is a deep ball specialist, leads in yards. Mark Ingram leads in touchdown receptions.

Other offensive weapons for Alabama include the true freshman Trent Richardson, who we really recruited hard and hoped to come to us. He has had a fine freshman campaign, with 377 yards on 74 carries. He has broken off a couple of very long runs, but he is not as consistently productive as Ingram.

Alabama's biggest advantage over us when they have the ball is the middle of their offensive line against the middle of our defense. They have been deadly running the ball between the tackles and Florida ran the ball up the middle on us constantly and we couldn't stop it. I would fully expect, given that LSU's secondary is more than a match for the Bama receivers, that Bama will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball until we show we can stop it. We may not be able to, and why should Bama get all fancy on us if they can run it effectively whenever they want? Our linebacker corps has been very good, but is not really built to take on a straight-ahead rushing attack, as our middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard (who has been outstanding this year) is a little undersized to be taking on straight-ahead blockers and rushers. He's more of an angler.

On defense, it's the same story. LSU has an advantage when our receivers go against their secondary, but the middle of the defense has a big advantage over the middle of our offense. The combination of nose tackle Terrance Cody and linebacker Rolando McClain is outstanding, better than any we've faced this year. I truly do not expect us to get very far running Charles Scott up the middle. The middle of our offensive line just has not been that good this year and this is the biggest mismatch they will face.

If we're going to have success, it will be to the outside of the hashes, using Russell Shepard, or Keiland Williams, or Trindon Holliday. This is not to say that the outside of Bama's defense is weak. It's just not as strong as the inside of Bama's defense, which is extraordinary.

Our real advantage is with our receiver corps, where Terrance Toliver and Brandon Lafell make up the best 1-2 receiver combination in the conference. Toliver's 38 catches puts him tied for 2nd in the league with Shay Hodge of Ole Miss behind A.J. Green. Lafell's 37 puts him 4th. No combination of receivers in the conference has those kinds of numbers. Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper of Florida combine for 68 receptions, and they are the closest. Bama's secondary is beatable, and these are just the two receivers to beat it.

The problem is that our offensive line will have to give the receivers time to beat that secondary. Bama is tied for the conference lead in sacks with 23. They get a lot of pressure, and protecting against pressure has not been a strong suit of our offensive line, nor has handling pressure been a strength of Jordan Jefferson's game. This is probably the one area where LSU will have to overperform its history in order for us to have a fighting chance. We will have to protect Jefferson better than we have before, and Jefferson will have to work quicker than he has in the past.

And lastly, special teams are huge for Alabama. They've won their last two games on field goals, as they haven't scored a touchdown since the first half of the South Carolina game. Leigh Tiffin has been the best kicker in the conference. Then there is that Javier Arenas guy, who is arguably the most dangerous punt returner in the conference. He will have to be held in check if we are going to win.

It is a tall order beating this Bama team, but we're getting them at our peak and we're as ready as we're ever going to be. I think we'll give them a tough game.

Post-Game: Arkansas

Whiskey Wednesday — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 06:08:49 -0000

More photos » by Ryan Moore - AP

Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino executes a textbook facepalm, the result of being outsmarted by USM graduate and Mississippi defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix, who sometimes fails to speak in complete sentences. Mississippi won the football contest, held Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/The Clarion-Ledger, Ryan Moore)

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PAY ATTENTION TO US!!!! Is it just me, or would the complete lack of coverage for today's game have been different if Arkansas wins? Sorry, the anti-Ole Miss conspiracy is gaining some credibility, at least in my head. I want the rest of the nation to join us in making fun of silly Arkansas fans today. Instead, I got to see Air Force/Utah and Indiana/Northwestern on Sportscenter, as well as coverage of a baseball game that was postponed due to rain (enthralling!!!), but didn't see Ole Miss until we were getting scored on by Arkansas in the Top Ten plays of the night. I wonder if Mark May's glasses contain a mind control chip that forces him to act like a smug, metrosexual, football-ignorant piece of dog shit, or if he's just always that way. More post-game thoughts after the jump.

So in the Florida game, the officials were about as observant and fair as a referee in a late 90's WWE match, distracted by a woman shaking her cleavage while Florida hits MSU with a metal folding chair. Good thing you suspended the officiating crew from last week's Florida game, SEC. That sort of monkey business just won't stand around here. Although I felt bad for State, I had a pretty hearty chuckle at Robert Eliot getting tackled by the crushing weight of his own douche-itude.

On to more pressing matters...

Kent Austin is probably calling the plays now. Arkansas fans (I'll address you directly a few paragraphs down), I'll admit that I don't want Houston Nutt calling the plays. This game, we used intelligent playcalling, ran plays to set up later plays, took what the defense gave us, ran the offense with a nice tempo, and otherwise abused the defense from a strategic standpoint. That was probably Kent Austin's doing. This I will concede.

Dexter McCluster may be the best offensive threat in Ole Miss history not named Manning. A great QB can cure all woes, but a guy that's often just too fast to tackle is pretty effective, too. Find me another 170 pound guy in a BCS conference that can take 29 touches and carry a team on his back.

Pat Patterson: keep throwing him the ball. Also, Jesse Grandy and Ferbia Allen. But mainly Patterson. You have to love a 5-star caliber guy who will lay out for any ball that comes his way, drag guys along the field with him, run block like a maniac... I mean, this guy likes to play some fucking football. Let's facilitate his desire to do so.

Bradley Sowell (and the rest of the offensive line) played like a 14 year-old who'd just gotten dumped for the first time for the first several games of the season. Today, he was pumped. He went after people. He was good. I can't imagine the reason for the turnaround (or for the shit-tastic play in the first place) but hey, thanks for showing up while we can still have an awesome season.

We could really use a fullback who can get to the perimeter a little better. Powe is not that guy. Neither, apparently, is Hartmann. Anyone?

I loved the playcalling. Screens should have been a cornerstone of our offensive scheme from day one. You can't let a defense get used to pinning their ears back against a line like ours and going for the ball. The passing game was much less vertically oriented, which really helped as well. When we needed to throw it downfield, we had some space to do so, because we'd passed it short to set it up. Amazing.

The defense did not play it's best game, which is pretty great, because they still looked good. Tackling needs to improve. Michael Smith was able to bounce off of guys all game long. We had trouble bringing guys down after the catch, which is a new problem that needs to get fixed, STAT. We had some unlikely guys step up today, so that's fun to talk about. Lamark Armour had an amazing sack. Marcus Tillman made some real noise against the run, coming off blocks nicely a few times. Jonathan Cornell had a great game. Powe continued to have the most enthusiastic offsides penalties in the history of football, but you know that gets in the O-line's head, because if he jumps the snap successfully, I've got news for you: you aren't about to block him.

Defensive playcalling was great, and if you're an Arkansas fan, you have to be upset about Petrino's inability to adjust. To be fair, this game was an ambush for Petrino and Arkansas. Ole Miss hasn't played well all year, hasn't called a good game offensively, haven't given teams enough good material to study. How could they have known that we'd suddenly be 5000% better than we were against Bama and USC? Also, Ryan Mallet's receivers had a pretty shitty day catching the ball. Mallet could've used more touch on several passes, but this is big kid's football. Dropping sure TD passes won't take you very far. After the catch, the Arkansas receivers were exceptional, but it wasn't even close to enough.

Because let's be real here for a minute. Ole Miss thoroughly kicked the shit out of Arkansas. If not for a lucky bounce on a 3rd and super, super long, Arkansas manages 10 points. If Cordera Eason doesn't fumble, or if Andru Stewart doesn't make an amazing interception, maybe Ole Miss extends the lead even further (not trying to take away from two outstanding Arkansas defensive plays, but they were both huge and unusual momentum swings). I'll say with confidence that Ole Miss didn't benefit from any bounces or bad officiating in this game. We just... won. The game was in doubt for all but the final 3 minutes, but it was so cleanly called, so well executed... It was an incredibly fun game to watch, even though it was nerve-wracking.

Sitting in the Grove post-game, talking about an outside shot at the Capital One Bowl is a lot more fun that getting drunk in the dusk and wondering if we'll ever be good at football again.

And finally... Arkansas fans.

I almost miss your nagging today. Maybe you knew we'd feel this way if we won, and you disappeared strictly to spite us. Maybe you're just not ready for this realization to sink in. But here it is:

Somewhere in the madness, you forgot that Houston Nutt is a good coach. He hired great assistants here, he (usually) motivates the shit out of his team, and he uses tried and true strategies to win in the SEC: run the ball, take care of it, and play nasty defense. He isn't perfect, but compared to some coaches, Nutt peaks at the right time. He drops games he should win, but he does it in September and October. Is that frustrating? Yeah, it can be, but so, too, can starting off 5-1 just to end up in the Indy Bowl. We've been there. Nutt helped claim a respectable spot in the SEC for Arkansas, and gave you the leverage to go and get a hot, slutty piece of coach when you got tired of him. At Ole Miss, we'd be thrilled if he elevated our program a bit, retired, then allowed us to hire someone who can win us an SEC title when he's gone. We're patient like that (usually).

To the better half of the Arkansas fan base: You have lots of reasons to be excited about your situation. Your team is young, your coach is recruiting the players he needs to make some runs in the SEC. I don't think he'll win an SEC title, but he could, if the chips fall his way. We feel like we're in the same position, just at a different time. Next year will likely be a down year, as the juniors and seniors will represent the dark years of Orgeron's recruiting. But we'll bounce back, and Arkansas and Ole Miss will be fighting for a spot in the West division race more often than not. We hope you'll come around and talk football, but man... let's drop the coach shit-talk.

To the shitty Arkansas fans: Please realize that this convincing victory has crushed most of the even slightly valid theories about Houston Nutt. Even if you feel like you still have something interesting or important to say on the matter, please be assured that you are mistaken. It's over for the year. We're doing fine, you're doing fine, but not quite as fine... because we beat you. We were the more experienced team this year, playing at home. Next year, it's your turn; we lose a lot of talent from a great 2006 recruiting class, and we play in Arkansas against a bunch of young guys who are coming around big time. You'll probably win next year, and it won't mean much with regards to the long-term futures of either program. We're tired of hearing the same stuff, we could easily turn this season around and be really good, and you have no ammo left in the chamber until next season. Give it a rest; even you guys will probably feel better.

That's about all I've got. Feel free to add your experiences and observations. It was a hell of a weekend. Hotty Toddy and goodnight.

Halfway Home: A Midseason Look at the SEC

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:00:54 -0000

With six weeks of the 2009 college football season now behind us, we can finally start to get a good idea on exactly what everyone is made of around the SEC. With that in mind, a few thoughts on some SEC teams:

Alabama Crimson Tide

I expected Alabama to be good this year, as did most others, but honestly I believe we've exceeded expectations in the first half, and we've done so in the face of some bad injury / suspension luck. Dont'a Hightower and Damien Square are gone for the year with knee injuries, and Jerrell Harris has yet to play thanks to an NCAA suspension. Moreover, we're a beat-up squad right now. Julio Jones isn't healthy, nor is Roy Upchurch, and Terrence Cody was limited to only about fifteen snaps against Ole Miss with some sort of leg muscle issue. Cory Reamer, in fact, left part of his ear in Oxford. And that's, of course, not to say anything of Brandon Deaderick, who was, you know, shot at point-blank range. Twice.

Despite all of this, 'Bama has played extremely well to date. The defense is every bit as good as expected -- perhaps even better -- and even with his miniature meltdown in Oxford, Greg McElroy has played the quarterback position better than anyone in Tuscaloosa in ages. The offensive line isn't the same in the running game, but it is perhaps a bit better in pass protection than it was a year ago, Colin Peek has more than filled Nick Walker's shoes, and the wide receiver corps has really taken things to the next level. Our win over Virginia Tech at a neutral site is probably the most impressive win of any team in the country, and a 22-3 thumping of Ole Miss in Oxford is still a quality victory even with the Rebels' disappointing season in mind. We haven't won by fewer than ten points all season, and really haven't been given a real scare since the early fourth quarter against Virginia Tech.

At this point, the sky is the limit for the Tide. We've established ourselves as the front runner in the SEC West, and we might even be able to lose a game at this point and still make it to Atlanta. A worst-case scenario right now seems to be a 11-1 or 10-2 season where we make it to the SEC Championship Game, but whether or not we can beat Florida is another matter. I think the Tide has clearly showed the muscle to do it, but we have yet to play a complete game to date, and that is exactly what it will take to get past the Gators. This team is a legitimate national championship contender, but we're going to have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot -- think pre-snap penalties, kick coverage breakdowns, questionable play-calling, dropped touchdown passes, red zone inefficiencies, etc. -- in order to win the ultimate prize. Until we show that we can do that, I'm afraid, this 'Bama team will probably "just" end up another team that wins a ton of games and likely gets a BCS bowl berth, but one that ultimately has no hardware to show for it at day's end.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Despite a disappointing early season loss to Georgia, this Arkansas team actually looks pretty decent. The offense is a very good unit -- Michael Smith is still the most underrated player in the conference -- and the defense looks to be improving slightly. I know neither Texas A&M or Auburn are special teams by any stretch, but to thump those two by a combined 49 points is pretty impressive regardless of how you look at it. With a 4-2 record right now, Arkansas will return to a bowl game this year, and Bobby Petrino is clearly doing good things in Fayetteville.

The real problem with Arkansas is an ungodly tough schedule. It's bad enough to have to play on the road at Alabama, plus South Carolina (the second best team in the East). But to have the terrible luck to draw Georgia and Florida on the rotational conference schedule, not to mention a neutral site non-conference game against Texas A&M, plus games against LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss? Good grief... they are the anti-Auburn, the pure embodiment of scheduling hell. You could be a great team and only go 9-3 or 8-4 against this schedule, and the mere fact that Petrino and company are likely to get back to a bowl game, in and of itself, shows you the progress that is being made in Fayetteville.

And, really, keep your eye on this team moving down the stretch. They thumped both A&M and Auburn, and if their defense can prove to be even somewhat formidable, they will be extremely tough to beat. They beat LSU a year ago, and almost knocked off Ole Miss to boot. Expect them to claim at least one of those scalps again this year.

Auburn Tigers

The Gene Chizik era has gone as well as could have been reasonably expected, thanks in equal part to both the production of the Auburn offense and the lackluster performances to date by those on the Auburn schedule. Gus Malzahn has produced an offense as prolific as any Auburn fan could have dreamed off, and opposing defenses have clearly struggled with assignment breakdowns. Likewise, the Football Gods have been more than kind with the schedule. Louisiana Tech turned out to be a bad team even by WAC standards, Ball State completely nosedived, Mississippi State is as bad as expected, West Virginia's fifteen minutes of fame are clearly up, and Tennessee looks little, if any, better than a year ago. The Auburn defense has been the worst since Terry Bowden roamed the Plains, but the high-power offense and the weak schedule have driven Auburn to a surprising 5-1 start.

Moving forward, I really do not think this team is a particularly good one. I think they are a solid, 6-6 caliber team, but again the Football Gods continue to bring gifts with the schedule. It's always good to draw Kentucky, at home, on the SEC rotational schedule, but Auburn gets an added gift this weekend with the 'Cats starting quarterback being injured and unavailable. Beyond that, Furman is a guaranteed win, LSU continues to disappoint, Georgia is looking at its worst year in a decade, and Ole Miss has failed to live up to preseason expectations.

Again, I don't think this is a particular good team, and I could still see them crashing and burning if injuries show just how little quality depth this team has throughout the ranks. Nevertheless, though, it's a fairly decent team that can take advantage of a weak schedule thanks to their high-power offense, and they look to be in position to do just that. This is a team that will at least get seven wins, and nine wouldn't be a total shock.

Georgia Bulldogs

Get your popcorn ready, folks, this one is about to get highly entertaining. After getting blown out by Tennessee, Georgia sits at 3-3 on the season, and that is with games remaining against Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech. Even if these guys can avoid upsets against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, they are still probably going to struggle to get above 6-6. At these point, these guys are probably headed to the "new Shreveport," whatever that is, and that's if they don't get upset from here on out.

Either way, this is easily the worst team of the Richt era and it's likely to be the worst UGA team since Donnan took over in 1996. The defense is not very good, the running game is non-existent, Joe Cox is a glorified game manager, and they have no real threats at wide receiver sans A.J. Green. What else can you say? This is just not a good football team, period.

With all of that in mind, again, get your popcorn ready. This is Richt's ninth year in Athens, and he's entering uncharted territory. Few SEC coaches last this long, and the few that do are reeling and running out of steam at this point. Look at Fulmer at Tennessee, Tuberville at Auburn, and Nutt at Arkansas, just to name a few. And it certainly seems like Richt fits that mold as well. The fanbase is going nuts, they want lots of assistants fired, and many are openly questioning whether or not Richt can ever get the job done. This one will get interesting. That preseason #1 ranking feels like it was decades ago, doesn't it?

LSU Tigers

A 5-1 start and a top ten ranking to start the season, so things are all well in Baton Rouge, right? Not really. This team has zero quality wins to date, and frankly they are just fortunate to not be 3-3 with losses to Mississippi State and Georgia. This team will beat Tulane, and will probably beat Auburn, so they are likely to go into Tuscaloosa with a 7-1 record and a top ten ranking, but things just aren't right with this team, and I really don't know what's wrong.

LSU obviously has an ungodly amount of talent on hand, but it's not really working. Jordan Jefferson may not be Mr. Pick Six, but he cannot throw the football down the field, and the passing game is nothing special with him in. The offensive line is struggling up front, and without a line blowing defenses out of the water, suddenly guys like Charles Scott look pretty average. The defense looks pretty good, but who really knows about them? They have played only one good offense to date (Florida), and while only allowing 13 points looks nice on paper, realistically Tebow was not playing anywhere near his usual level, and the Florida offense was more conservative than Roy Moore.

Moreover, with all of the talk of the 2007 Florida game recently, it should be pointed out that this team really hasn't played well since Jacob Hester converted those umpteen fourth down opportunities. Since that victory, national championship and all, LSU is a combined 9-8 in SEC play, and the wins have generally came in close games against bad teams. The combined record of those opponents in the nine wins is a mere 40-50, and six of those nine victories came by a touchdown or less, which includes three come-from-behind wins in the final two minutes, plus a goal line stand in the waning seconds. The other three victories came by an average of 13.6 points, and the combined conference record of those three opponents is a laughably low 2-17. And that is from a team that led the SEC, by a wide margin, in both 2007 and 2008 in fumble luck. Again, I don't care that they won a national championship in 2007, these guys haven't played good football in two years now.

I really don't know what to make of this team. Again, like I said, they'll probably go into Tuscaloosa 7-1 and near a top five ranking, but I don't know that they are really any good. They've got the raw talent to go off and play extremely well, but that's not a given, so who knows? I do think they averted complete disaster by squeaking out games against MSU and Georgia, but for a team with so much talent and an unstoppable recruiting juggernaut, it certainly does feel that they are just barely hanging on with a cupcake OOC schedule and a couple of lucky breaks in close games against bad teams, doesn't it?

Kentucky Wildcats

With three straight bowl victories in the bag, Rich Brooks looks like he could somehow take the 'Cats to the promised land a fourth time in 2009. To be sure, the 2-3 record to date is disappointing, but hardly shocking. With Alabama and Florida on the schedule early, at best they figured to be 3-2 at this point. They gave South Carolina a legitimate run for their money, and a win there would have almost guaranteed a return trip to the postseason, but alas it was not to be.

Nevertheless, Kentucky still has a solid, achievable route to a bowl game. Louisiana-Monroe and Eastern Kentucky should yield two easy wins, and then the 'Cats get the two worst teams in the SEC with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Even if the 'Cats slip up somewhere along those lines, they still have a few chances at some upsets. They've played well to date, and will be favored in four of their remaining seven games, and while they will be underdogs in the other three -- at Auburn, at Georgia, and Tennessee -- Kentucky will have a legitimate chance of winning each time out. I think the smart money is still on UK ending up 7-5 or 6-6 and making it back to the postseason yet again.

Ole Miss Rebels

Colonel Reb is pretty much as overrated as I expected them to be all along in terms of contending for the SEC West. The real question for this team, now, is where do they go from here? Given how they have played to date, this team could easily lose another three games unless they improve. On the other hand, they could rally like last year and still get a good bowl game. They cannot win the West for themselves, but they sure as hell can spoil any chance either LSU or Auburn has left. Truth be told, as of right now, 'Bama fans have few better friends than Ole Miss. If they can beat LSU in Oxford, that practically clinches 'Bama the SEC West regardless of what happens in the Alabama v. LSU game.

As a more general point, will Ole Miss ever win the SEC in our lifetime? Clearly this was their only shot for now... bringing in a solid, proven coach after a recruiting guru filled the roster with raw talent, but obviously it's not to be, and Nutt will never win it in Oxford. He couldn't do it in Fayetteville, and with the lack of recruiting success he is having at Ole Miss, his Rebels are moving in the wrong direction. It just isn't happening, folks.

The last time Ole Miss won the SEC was in 1963 -- 46 years ago -- days after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. My father was seven at the time, and I am currently moving closer to 30 than I am 20, and Ole Miss has never even came close to winning it in my lifetime. So, again, I ask, will we ever see Ole Miss win the SEC in our lifetime, or is this going to be like waiting on the Cubs to win the World Series?

Mississippi State Bulldogs

I've long gone on the record as being a fan of the Dan Mullen hire, and I think he has done pretty well in Starkville to date. The offense is coming along a lot quicker than I expected, and he almost pulled off a massive upset against LSU a couple of weeks back. True freshman Chad Bumphis has impressed at wide receiver, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Tyler Russell can do at quarterback in the future.

Of course, though, in the harsh light of reality, life is never easy for the lovable Bullies. With a loss to Houston, MSU is now probably looking at a 3-9 campaign, and that's if they can beat Middle Tennessee on the road in what many expect to be a pretty close game (Vegas has MSU as only a three point favorite). Mullen is effectively fighting the impossible fight in Starkville, and his efforts won't pay any short term dividends. I guess all you can say is that, at least, they beat Vandy and aren't the worst team in the conference, which is what most expected.

South Carolina Gamecocks

If I had to wager, I would say the Gamecocks are perhaps one of the toughest teams to judge right now. The opener against North Carolina State was ugly, and losing to Georgia at this point is likewise far from pretty. On the other hand, the win over Ole Miss was impressive -- and the game wasn't as close as the scoreboard indicated -- and the victory over a relatively decent Kentucky team was fairly impressive.

I actually think this has the pure potential to be the best team Spurrier has fielded in Columbia since his arrival, even though that may not be saying much. They do have a great defense, Garcia has clearly improved, and the offensive line looks to be the best it has been to date under the Ol' Ball Coach. I think that as of right now, there is very little doubt that these guys are probably the #2 team in the SEC East. On the other hand, though, Florida ought to thump these guys once again, and beating 'Bama would require a major upset. They are 5-1 at the moment, and will get to six wins against Vanderbilt, but with road games left against Arkansas and Tennessee, not to mention a date with Clemson, getting above eight wins still looks to be a difficult task.

Tennessee Volunteers

I've never seen anything like Lane Kiffin, for better or for worse. The constant verbal jabs in the media. The changing of pullovers at halftime. The "play to lose with respect, not win" strategy. The trying to go for two with defeat certain and time expired just to reduce the margin of defeat and bump up their Pythagorean Wins. He's a unique one, no doubt there.

That said, I see little reason to believe the Vols are much better this year than they were a year ago, and in fact they look to be pretty much the same team to me. The blowout win over Georgia was nice, but truthfully it was probably more to do with UGA's implosion than the "turning the corner" that so many UT fans would like to make it out to be. Even with that, this team is basically in the exact same boat they were last year... a 6-6 team that will make some laughable bowl game so long as they don't get upset late by a really bad team. They ended up 5-7 last year when Wyoming pulled off the shocker, and that is exactly what they are looking to avoid now. Either way, it's hard to see this team being anything more than nominally improved over its immediate predecessor, and their final record will reflect that.

Vanderbilt Commodores

I enjoyed last year's showing by Vandy as much as anyone, and Bobby Johnson has done a marvelous job in Nashville. At the end of the day, though, it's still Vandy, and it's showing. Losing to Mississippi State, at home, effectively guaranteed that the 'Dores would be the worst team in the SEC in 2009, and after losing on the road against lowly Army, Vandy fans will probably have to wait until 2010 to get another win. With six games remaining against Georgia, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee, it's hard to see the 'Dores getting another win. A 2-10 finish -- including an 0-8 conference record -- seems to be the likely result.

At least there will always be memories of the 2008 team, I suppose. No one ever said that life as a Vanderbilt football fan was easy.

Q&A: Chris Bahn

Arkansas Expats — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:29:05 -0000

If our elaborate system of sundials and water clocks is correct, the Razorbacks have played exactly one-third of their schedule. We marked the occasion in the same way that Hog fans have always celebrated reaching the season's one-third marker: by conducting an e-mail Q&A with Chris Bahn of ArkansasSports360.com.

Read on to get Chris' take on the 2009 season so far. Many thanks to Chris for his time. Give us your thoughts in the comments section.

What's your assessment of the Razorbacks' season: Have the Hogs generally played about like you expected or worse?

Not much has surprised me so far, honestly. This team has an explosive offense and a, uh, less-than-perfect defense. That's right on par with what I think most folks saw coming. I am surprised we haven't seen more run production from Michael Smith and more receptions from D.J. Williams. Ryan Mallett has a lot to do with that because he's doing a nice job of reading defenses and distributing the ball. Arkansas and Texas Tech are the only teams in the country with nine different players to catch touchdown passes. That's wild.

Although there were some signs of life against A&M, the running game has been surprisingly weak this season. Why are the Hogs struggling in this area?

Who could have seen this question coming considering the previous decade when Arkansas was one of the nation's best running teams? It's the offensive line more than anything and guys like guard Mitch Petrus aren't shy about admitting it. Maybe it hurts that Arkansas is scoring so quick.

The Razorbacks have seen seven of 16 scoring plays cover 25 yards or more. Those quick-strike touchdowns aren't helping the offensive line maintain a down-and-dirty approach to blocking. Run blocking is tough work, and not doing it on a consistent basis might be a problem.

Texas A&M is the first time we've seen a true glimpse of what the running game is supposed to be under Bobby Petrino. Arkansas used the backs in the passing game to loosen up the defense, then chipped away with a lot of fresh bodies and eventually wore the Aggies down to the point that they couldn't tackle Ronnie Wingo on his 62-yard touchdown run. Don't get me wrong, Wingo had a lot to do with the run, but he broke a tackle about seven yards in and a fresh defensive player probably stops him.

Last season, there were various reports of players being unhappy with Petrino. What's your assessment of the locker room chemistry and attitude this year?

Bobby Petrino is difficult man to play for and work with. I'm probably not breaking news here. Petrino demands perfection in every detail. That was a shock to the system for a lot of players in his first season.

Now that they've had a year to understand Petrino's way of thinking/working, I think the players who remain are in tune with what is expected. I don't think that makes Petrino any easier to play for, but it's not quite the shock to the system it was a year ago. Because of that, there is less complaining and the chemistry is better. That should help on the field.

It's like any of us who have ever had a change of supervisor in the work place. That's a tough transition to make for everybody involved. It takes time to get to know each other and only in rare cases does it click for everybody right away.

Is the defense capable of significant improvement over the course of this season, or do you think the Hogs' SEC foes will continually ring up big offensive numbers?

Both. ... I like what we've seen from the Razorbacks defense in terms of points allowed the last three weeks. They've gone from 52 to 35 to 19. Arkansas still gave up a ton of yards against Texas A&M, but managed to stiffen in the red zone. Arkansas has done a better job of tackling each week.

Willy Robinson seems to be finding a rotation of players that works well. There's not enough talent on this defense to shut people out, but Arkansas can do better than the 43.5 per game it's giving up to SEC opponents so far.

Before the season, you predicted an 8-4 record. Are you sticking with that? What's your forecast for Saturday's Auburn game?

Now that I know what I know about the Razorbacks and the rest of the Southeastern Conference, eight seems a touch optimistic. This schedule is absolutely brutal. And there are three consecutive top 25 opponents coming up, including two games on the road. Yikes.

That said, Arkansas' record is just what I thought it would be at this point: 2-2. I'm not sure why so many people had their finger on the panic button after the Alabama loss. That's a damn good football team in Tuscaloosa, and Nick Saban is as good as they come at building a program. Georgia is probably better than we all gave them credit for after they lost to open the year at Oklahoma State.

Anyway ... Auburn is better than I thought. I had no idea Gus Malzahn would make the immediate impact he's made on that offense. I'm leaning toward Auburn in this game (as of 10:15 p.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 7) because I think its defensive talent is better than the Razorbacks', but I reserve the right to change my mind between now and kickoff on Saturday.

To bone up on the Auburn Tigers, be sure to head over to AS360 to read Chris' "Everything You Need to Know about Auburn."

Week Five Preview: #3 Alabama at Kentucky

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:15:10 -0000

More photos » by James Crisp - AP

2 months ago: Kentucky coach Rich Brooks looks on during the second half of their NCAA college football game against Florida in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/James Crisp)

Browse more photos »

Almost a year to the day after earning an ugly, 17-14 win over Kentucky in Tuscaloosa, the Tide now takes the return trip to Lexington for the re-match. Historically Alabama has dominated this series, putting it mildly, and the Tide is once again a heavy favorite as we go into Lexington. Of course, though, the Kentucky program under Rich Brooks is a far better one than the Tide has historically faced when going up against the Wildcats, and conference wins rarely come easy. Kentucky is a formidable foe in their own right, and they present the Alabama coaching staff plenty of challenges. Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Kentucky Defense

Despite being a general juggernaut throughout the first four games of the season -- averaging over 35 points and about 500 yards of total offense per game -- the Alabama offense did encounter its first real problems of the season last week against Arkansas, as the Hogs were able to shut down the Tide's running game. Thankfully we still scored a lot of points because we had three long touchdowns, plus one short drive created by Lorenzo Washington's blocked punt, but the chink in the armor was nevertheless somewhat revealed. Simply put, the Hogs had a big, physical defensive front seven, they committed the resources necessary to stop the run, and we simply could not do much with it.

And in all fairness to Kentucky, the Wildcats do have a fine defense. Oddly enough, after spending years of having a prolific offense mixed with a defense that couldn't stop anyone, Kentucky now sports a fine defense, and it will easily be one of the best defenses we face all season. It's just a good group, top-to-bottom, with good coaching and a couple of legitimate star players to boot.

The defensive front seven, much like last week against Arkansas, does present some major issues simply because they are big and physical. The front four averages around 270 pounds, with a couple of 300 pound players in Corey Peters and Ricky Lumpkin anchoring the interior defensive line. The defensive ends are about as big as you will find for legitimate 4-3 teams, and the linebacker corps is big even by 3-4 standards. As a whole the corps averages around 240 pounds, while standout Micah Johnson comes in at around 260 pounds and Sam Maxwell is nearly as big. Bottom line, just like Arkansas a week ago, this is a very big, physical defensive front seven, and that will probably give us a lot of issues up front.

In particular, don't sleep on Micah Johnson. He is probably the best defensive player in the SEC you've never heard of, and it's only because he isn't playing for a high-profile program. He was a five-star recruit out of high school that could have legitimately gone to any school in the country, and he's practically been a standout player since first setting foot on campus. Truth be told, he's every bit as good as Rolando McClain or Brandon Spikes, and he will play on Sunday one day very soon. He can make a very big impact on a game, and we'll have to do all we can to limit his effectiveness. If he played for a high-profile program like Alabama or Florida, everyone in the country would know his name.

The biggest concern, though, that this defense poses as a whole is their ability to play the pass. Arkansas was big and physical in the front seven, but they couldn't rush the passer effectively, nor did their defensive backs cover well in space. Perhaps not too surprisingly, then, the Hogs shut down the running game with ease, but were torched in the passing game by Greg McElroy and company. Kentucky, on the other hand, faces no such limitation. Kentucky is big and physical in the front seven, but they can also effectively rush the passer, and they also have a fine defensive backfield to boot. Simply put, that's a big problem for 'Bama.

The pass rush itself is probably one of the best in the conference. The off-season loss of Jeremy Jarmon -- Jarmon tested positive for a banned supplement, lost a year of eligibility, and entered the NFL Supplemental Draft -- was a big one for the 'Cats, but the pass rush hasn't exactly struggled in his absence. Junior college transfer DeQuin Evans has played well in his place, and Collins Ukwu has been a force at times as well. Moreover, freshman Taylor Windham brings a lot of speed off the edge and he has already proven that he can rush the passer well (see the knockout blow on Tim Tebow last weekend). The Kentucky defense has racked up seven sacks this year on 79 passing attempts, so they have already showcased an ability to get after the quarterback.

That's bad enough for the Alabama offense, but making matters worse is the strength of the Kentucky defensive backfield. Cornerback Trevard Lindley is easily the cornerback in the SEC, and he will be a first round draft pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. He's an impact player who opposing teams generally loathe throwing against, but unfortunately the rest of the Kentucky defensive backfield is a solid group as well. Paul Warford normally starts opposite Lindley at cornerback, but he is missing the Alabama game with an injury, and Randall Burden will play in his place. The good news for Kentucky is that Burden seems like a solid option, and if nothing else he can really dance. Likewise, Winston Guy and Calvin Harrison really aren't game-changers at safety, but both are decent players at this stage who can get the job done.

All in all, the Kentucky defense is a fine one, and they present a lot of problems for the Alabama offense. They are big and physical enough to stop the run, and once they stop the run, you have to throw the football successfully, and to that end they can rush the passer and cover in the defensive backfield. Again, it's a fine unit, and if they can stay healthy it's perhaps the best defense the Tide will face all year. Objectively speaking, points ought to be hard to come by.

Alabama Defense v. Kentucky Offense

Remember earlier when I talked about how Kentucky used to be a team with a prolific offense and a laughable defense? Well, now the roles have entirely reversed, and its the offense that suddenly cannot get out of its own way. The Wildcats finished 87th in the country last year in scoring offense, and if the early returns are any indicator this offense is likely to much more closely resemble the 2008 offense than it does either the 2006 or 2007 units.

The biggest problem that this offense faces is simply that they don't have a lot of high-end players, particularly at the skill positions. At quarterback, Mike Hartline is a big, tall quarterback with decent mobility, but that is generally where his positive attributes end. He can put up a good completion percentage when throwing a lot of dink and dunk routes, but he doesn't have the arm you would probably imagine given his frame, nor is he overly accurate. On the whole, most of the time he's just an average-at-best passer.

Likewise, there are really no true game-changers at the skill positions. Randall Cobb, the former quarterback, is really the only true playmaker on the outside, and in general Kentucky does absolutely everything in their power to get the ball in his hands (including putting Cobb in the Wildcat). Aside from Cobb, though, there is just really nothing of note on the outside. Chris Matthews and Matt Roark are both very big targets (at around 6'5), but neither are particularly athletic and they have struggled to get separation. Kyrus Lanxter has been slowed by injuries, and while T.C. Drake is a decent tight end, he's probably not as good as Jacob Tamme was back when the Wildcats could really light up the scoreboard. Truth be told, outside of Cobb, their best receiver is likely the speedy Derrick Locke, a tailback, coming out of the backfield.

And speaking of tailbacks, Kentucky has a decent group there that generally features a mix of size and speed. Derrick Locke is the speedster of the group, and he is one of the quickest backs in the SEC. Physically he is almost a clone of Arkansas' Michael Smith, and he brings to the table the same strengths and weaknesses. The Wildcats, however, do have some physical backs that they use to run inside, so they can attack you in more ways than one. Both Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen are physical tailbacks well over 200 pounds that can pound the interior running game. Likewise, fullback John Conner -- not related to this guy -- is a legitimate threat at fullback as a runner, receiver, and blocker.

The biggest strength of this offense is clearly at the point of attack with the offensive line. This is the most experienced offensive line in the SEC, and they start four seniors. Left tackle Zipp Duncan and right tackle Justin Jeffries are probably the best two players of the group, but the interior linemen aren't exactly shabby in their own right. It's not a unit featuring any true standout players, per se, but it's a capable group. They aren't mashers in the running game, mind you, but they do generally do a good job of protecting the quarterback. Kentucky quarterbacks have only been sacked three times this year on roughly 90 passing attempts, so these guys can clearly get the job done in pass protection.

All in all, though, again, this Kentucky offense just isn't very good. There simply aren't enough playmakers at the skill positions, and the quarterback isn't a standout player either. The offensive line is a solid group, as are the tailbacks, but they don't do enough in their own right to be able to overcome all of the shortcomings everywhere else that would allow Kentucky to truly light up the scoreboard.

As a whole, you really have to feel confident about how the Alabama defense looks to match up here. Kentucky is a physical team that likes to run the football, but even with the absence of Dont'a Hightower, it's hard to see this team having very much success against the Alabama defense on the ground. Likewise, while the Tide may struggle a bit to get to the passer, it's hard to see Kentucky having a lot of success in the passing game considering they lack quality depth at wide receiver or a consistently effective passing quarterback.

Putting It All Together

In the grand scheme of things, you really have to like the Tide's chances of winning this game. I think it's clear that we are the better team here, and there is a legitimate reason that we are favored going into this game.

On the other hand, though, Kentucky is no pushover. They may struggle offensively, but this is a good football team, and I personally think that Rich Brooks is easily one of the most underrated coaches of his generation. These guys have made three straight bowl games, and they will likely make a fourth straight in 2009. Likewise, after getting embarrassed by Florida, expect this Kentucky team to show up Saturday morning in Lexington like they just ate nails for breakfast. They'll be ready to play a long, physical contest, rest assured of that.

The good news is that the Kentucky offense ought to have very little success in terms of point production, unless we really give them some cheap points via turnovers and special teams breakdowns (speaking of which, Locke had a 100-yard kick return for a touchdown against Louisville). That said, unless we can really improve in terms of run blocking, the Kentucky defense may very well shut our offense down as well, and we could be in for another long, ugly, low-scoring game much like we had a year ago. Those who think that the Tide is simply going to walk into Lexington and come away with an easy win are probably in for a rude awakening come Saturday. Unless we suddenly play a lot better up front, or Kentucky decides to beat itself for the second week in a row, this is a game that is likely to be close going into the latter stages of the contest.

Hope for the best.

Five Questions With Arkansas Expats

Beergut — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 09:54:08 -0000

As we will try to do with the other SB Nation blogs of opponents we face this year, we exchanged 5 questions with Arkansas Expats, the Arkansas Razorbacks blog here on SB Nation.

1. How is your run blocking this season? I noticed that Arkansas is currently last in the SEC in rushing, and I wondered if that was a function of y'all playing from behind and abandoning the run for portions of the Georgia game and all of the Alabama game, or is your offensive line struggling? Michael Smith is averaging 6.8 yards per carry, so it doesn't seem to be an issue of lack of talent at the RB position.

Given the Hogs' long history of good running and bad passing, it's a little strange to have those strengths and weaknesses reversed. The running game has been surprisingly lackluster this year, and that's definitely something we'll need to improve if we want to start winning games against good teams.

As for why the running game has underperformed, I think it's a few things. Against Georgia, we were having a lot of success with downfield passing so the coaches kept going to that (and then late in the game we were playing catch-up like you said). Against Alabama, well, their defense is just really really good. Bobby Petrino is known as a passing coach, but he's said many times that he wants to go to the run more than we've seen so far.

Michael Smith is definitely for real - he's one of the best RBs in the SEC - and we need him to have a big game against A&M (and many more after that). He's been banged up a bit already this year, so we're hoping he stays healthy and gets the job done. After that, though, we have a bunch of highly touted backs who haven't produced much, so that's an area of concern. And to go back to your original question, the offensive line needs to play better. Right now our ability to convert in short yardage situations is pretty pathetic. If we have a 3rd & goal on you from the 1 yard line, look for a pass.

2. What is the biggest key to the game, in your opinion, for Arkansas to win?

The biggest key is that our defense needs to stop resembling a leaky sieve and act more like, well, a defense. A&M has a powerful offense, and our defense has a major weak spot when it comes to giving up big plays on the ground and in the air. It's been an absolute killer for us so far this year...if we're going to win on Saturday the defense absolutely needs to step up and make some stops.

3. Has the Razorback fanbase fully embraced Bobby Petrino, despite his 6-8 start at Arkansas? Any worries about him leaving if another job (say, Notre Dame) opens up?

Yeah, Razorback fans have definitely embraced Petrino. The frustration with Houston Nutt is pretty complex and would take too long to go into here, but the bottom line is that the fanbase was very divided during the latter part of his tenure. When Petrino came in, everyone rallied around him pretty quickly. Even though his record so far isn't great, the team has made a lot of progress and people are well aware that Nutt left the cupboard pretty bare and our schedule has been consistently brutal. So, Hog fans are still definitely into Petrino...however, we ARE focusing a lot of angst towards the defensive coordinator, Willy Robinson.

As for worries about Petrino leaving, I'm sure he'll leave at some point, but if he gets lured away to someplace like Notre Dame it would only be because the Hogs were winning big (nobody is going to want him with his current reputation and a 6-8 record). So, if he has success and then leaves, that seems like a fair tradeoff.

4. With the neutral site game in Arlington, Arkansas now has three home sites for games, in Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Arlington (in odd years). Do you think this effects your team at all, with having to mvoe around so much to still play at "home"? What, if any, effect does it have on your fanbase?

The Fayetteville vs Little Rock thing is always sort of controversial, and every few years there's talk about moving all the games to the campus, which then prompts a lot of outrage from people in Central and Southern Arkansas. The weird thing is that the Hogs seem to have a better home field advantage in Little Rock - it's louder there, and the fans tend to be rowdier - so in that sense, it does affect the team to have different levels of home games.

As for the games in Arlington, I think the pros of us getting a high-profile nonconference game in Texas far outweigh the cons, and people generally seem very positive on the idea.

5. Finally, what is your prediction for this game?

Well, I'm a fan so I can't pick against the Hogs here. For one thing, the more desperate team usually wins in football and this game is much more of a must win for 1-2 Arkansas than 3-0 Texas A&M. Plus, our record is a little deceiving in that we've played two good teams and that should have toughened us up a bit. I'll say that the Razorbacks will get their ground game going, get some big plays through the air and make enough stops on defense (certainly not a lot, but at least a few) to win in a nail-biting shootout.

Thanks to John and Stephen for their answers and insight into the Arkansas program. Go to Arkansas Expats to read my answers to their questions, and to discuss the game with them.

Southwest Classic Preview

Beergut — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:36:58 -0000

The Aggies will play Arkansas for the first time since 1991 when they meet the Razorbacks on the field Saturday. The Razorbacks left the Southwest Conference for the Southeastern Conference following the 1991 season; the Ags sent them on their way with a 13-3 loss in College Station. In the 18 seasons since then, Arkansas has lost 95 games, making you wonder if they made the right move by leaving for the SEC. The renewal of the rivalry between A&M and Arkansas helps both teams; it gives A&M a marquee non-conference game in the Metroplex, which helps with television exposure and recruiting, and it gives Arkansas a guaranteed game in Texas for the next 10 seasons, which will definitely help their recruiting. A&M might have the bigger advantage here, simply because the location will make it a de facto home game for the Aggies.

Join us after the jump as we take a statistical look at Arkansas so far this season....

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Ryan Mallett	3	83.0	50	96	52.1	877	292.3	9.1	7	1	10	-22	-7.3	-2.2	0	-	-
Tyler Wilson	2	103.0	17	25	68	84.5	169	6.8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Michael Smith	3	24	163	54.3	6.8	1	5	52	17.3	10.4	0
Broderick Green	3	15	39	13	2.6	1	1	8	2.7	8	0
Ryan Mallett	3	10	-22	-7.3	-2.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ronnie Wingo, Jr.	3	13	61	20.3	4.7	0	1	8	2.7	8	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Joe Adams	3	13	206	68.7	15.8	2
Greg Childs	3	13	250	83.3	19.2	3
Ben Cleveland	1	1	11	11	11	0
London Crawford	1	2	44	44	22	0
Knile Davis	2	1	-1	-0.5	-1	0
Reggie Fish	1	1	9	9	9	0
Broderick Green	3	1	8	2.7	8	0
Cobi Hamilton	3	6	68	22.7	11.3	1
Van Stumon	1	1	2	2	2	1
D.J. Williams	2	4	46	23	11.5	0
Ronnie Wingo, Jr.	3	1	8	2.7	8	0
Jarius Wright	3	11	261	87	23.7	1

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts

Obviously, Ryan Mallett is the leader of this offense. As QB, he makes the Razorback spread attack go. Mallett has been able to spread the ball around to 12 different receivers so far this season, but his main targets seem to be Greg Childs, Joe Adams, and Jarius Wright. Mallett has been solid and sometimes spectacular this season; he had 408 yds through the air on 21-39 passing for 5 TDs against Georgia. Granted, Georgia has the second-worst pass defense and second-worst defense overall in the SEC, but that is still a solid performance, regardless of who you play. Part of that poor defensive showing for Georgia is because of Ryan Mallett. If Mallett has a weakness, it is that he is fairly immobile in the pocket. He was sacked twice against Georgia and three times against Alabama; getting pressure on Mallett and forcing him to hurry his throws will be imperative for the Aggie defense. Alabama was able to hurry him 8 times besides those 3 sacks, and that is something we want to duplicate.

The Razorback running game is headlined by Michael Smith, a stud picked by many as All-SEC in the preseason. Smith had over 1000 yds rushng last season, despite missing two games, and has produced this season when given the ball, as shown by his 6.8 yards per carry average. Unfortunately for Smith, Arkansas has been playing from behind in games against Georgia and Alabama, which has caused them to run the ball less. As a team, Arkansas only averages 94.7 yds per game rushing, which ranks them dead last in the SEC. Arkansas is also dead last in scoring defense (32.3 ppg) and total defense (386.7 ypg), but we'll get to that later. Next to Mallett going crazy, Smith is my biggest concern going into this game. If we don't contain him and stop the running game early, it can be a long night in Arlington for our defense.

Defensively, Arkansas is led by Matt Harris, a redshirt freshman free safety from Richardson Pearce HS. Harris has 19 total tackles on the season, which ties him with senior LB Wendel Davis, who is from Sweeny, TX. I've always said you know you are in trouble when your defensive leader in tackles is a safety, which is partially the case here, but Davis is a stellar LB, with 2.5 tackles for loss, a pass broken up, and 1 fumble recovery so far this season. The Hogs defensive line is led by DE Adrian Davis, a senior from Rosenberg, TX (you starting to understand why Arkansas wants a game in Texas for recruiting?), who has 16 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery so far on the season. Arkansas' pass defense is the weakness of their team; they are currently last in the SEC, giving up an average of 263 yds per game, and have already given up 8 TDs through the air. Being able to protect Jerrod Johnson from their pass rush so he can exploit their porous pass defense will be one of the bigger offensive keys to the game for A&M. Arkansas' run defense isn't great, but it isn't horrible, giving up an average of 3.3 yards per carry, and 123.7 yds per game. They have given up 4 rushing touchdowns on the year, though. Given that Arkansas' spread offense is going to force opponents to want to run the ball more to keep the ball out of Ryan Mallett's hands, this isn't a bad performance by their defense. If we can get 150 or more yards rushing on Arkansas to balance out our passing attack, we'll be in a good position to win the game.

Overall, I think Arkansas is a solid to decent team which is still figuring things out in coach Bobby Petrino's second season. Like us, Arkansas is still learning to win games after a losing season last year. Arkansas has a significant advantage over us in that they have played two conference games, so their team has been through the fire. Coming into this game after two straight losses, Arkansas will be a hungry and desperate team, and will play with a lot of intensity. Matching that intensity and breaking their will, so we destroy any hope they ever have for victory, will be the key to us winning the game on Saturday.