SB Nation - Fla. International Golden Panthers

Alabama & Florida Common Opponents: FIU

Year2 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:00:34 -0000

As a part of SEC Championship Game week, we're taking a look at Alabama's and Florida's common opponents in alphabetical order. Now up: FIU.

	Alabama	Florida
Game Number	2	11
Score	40-14	62-3
Passing Yards	241	361
Rushing Yards	275	223
Total Yards	516	584
Passing All.	213	136
Rushing All.	1	53
Total Defense	214	189
3rd Downs	3-10	11-14
3rd Down Def.	7-17	4-15
Turnover Margin	+1	+1

There's little point in parsing this one too much. It's just FIU after all, a Sun Belt Conference doormat that got blown out by Middle Tennessee State at one point this season. But, since Alabama and Florida both played the Golden Panthers, here we go.

Alabama got FIU in their second game of the season. The first, as you remember, was their romp over Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome. Alabama's dominance in that one didn't really come out in the 10 point final margin, but the Tide had a sizable lead in about everything that mattered. Bama could be forgiven for overlooking this one, and that's good because it's precisely what they did. FIU took a 14-13 lead in the second quarter, was only down six at halftime, but finally ran out of gas in the second half as Bama woke up and took over.

Florida, on the other hand, was getting FIU after finishing up its SEC schedule over South Carolina the previous week and seven days prior to the annual big rivalry tilt with FSU. As with the Gators' other cupcake games against Charleston Southern and Troy, they hit the gas early, put it away before halftime, and let the backups play the second half. The only real notable bit from this one is that Tim Tebow had a 55 yard touchdown run, his longest rush from scrimmage in his career.

There's not a whole lot else to say about this one as again, it's just FIU. If you're using a team that's currently 3-4 in Sun Belt play as a real measuring stick for the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country, I don't have much to say to you.

However for the sake of argument and this series, Florida had the much better game. The Gators never trailed, gave up only a token field goal right before the half, and got to see the game as a reward for a job well done in SEC play. Bama on the other hand was still working out early season kinks as every team has to, and they were also in a let down game scenario.

Better performance: Florida, easily.

See also: Arkansas.

Week 12 Preview: Let's Just Talk About Football with LSU-Ole Miss and Kentucky-Georgia

cocknfire — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:11:43 -0000

More photos » by RYAN MOORE - AP

And don't forget this guy.

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Weekend Open Thread for these and other games opens at 11 a.m. ET and goes all day long

KIND OF LIVING UP TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF EXPECTATIONS
LSU at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

I've already written quite a bit about how the preseason expectations line up with this game actually playing out, but this matchup is the best of the weekend and will go a long way toward deciding which of these teams has a chance of getting to something resembling what fans wanted to see when the season began. A Rebels win here would still allow Ole Miss to get its first 10-win season (counting the bowl) since Eli Manning was under center, which isn't a Western Division title but also isn't a bad consolation prize. The Bayou Bengals could ensure a better record than last year's disappointing 8-5 mark simply by winning this game and could set them up for what will be remembered as a rebound even if it was less than spectacular at times.

But what I said in Ten Games Reconsidered still holds true here: By almost any statistical measure, Ole Miss' lines have played better this season than LSU's. True, Ole Miss has played two FCS teams and managed to dodge Florida in the SEC East slate, but the stats are all we have to go with until we see the teams side by said.

Even aside from all that, the LSU offense is just bad. Jordan Jefferson in or out, it's just not the kind of attack you write home about. The scoring offense is 9th best in the league, which might actually be an accomplishment when you realize that the total offense is only 11th in the SEC.

And while Ole Miss isn't quite what some of the preseason hype made them out to be, they're still gaining almost 406 ypg and have only scored less than 30 once since the 22-3 defeat against Alabama (a 30-22 defeat to Auburn). The defense is also competent and should be able to stay out of LSU's way as the Tigers implode.

When the inexplicable faces the inconsistent, I'm inclined to favor the inconsistent. We at least have a reason to believe they can do well.

Ole Miss 34, LSU 17

PAST IS NOT ALWAYS PROLOGUE
Kentucky at Georgia, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This is not as easy a game for Georgia as you might think. The Dawgs have struggled in recent years to put away the 'Cats, with Kentucky even managing to pull the upset in 2006. That would have been a strong contender for the most disappointing Georgia team of the Mark Richt Era before this year's edition, meaning that the historical starts would appear to be aligned for Kentucky.

Then again, Georgia will presumably come into this game with a bit of a motivational boost from trying to win one for Uga. Which is good, because last week's victory against Auburn was the only win against serious SEC competition in nearly two months for Georgia. The offense is subpar and we've all heard about the trouble with the defense -- though, at 7th in total defense in the SEC, Willie Martinez's charges are actually outperforming Mike Bobo's (10th in the league).

The problem is that Kentucky isn't much better in any category, despite pairing about the same level of SEC schedule against a punching bag of a nonconference slate. Doing the same against worse competition gives me an idea about where to go with this one.

Georgia 13, Kentucky 10

BECAUSE SOMETIMES THE NUMBERS CAN LIE
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Tennessee is recovering from a season-worst defeat against Ole Miss, while Vanderbilt is recovering from ... well, the entire season, really. The Commodores have only won two games and haven't been on the right side of the scoreboard since a Sept. 26 victory at Rice.

But Tennessee still has the surprisingly competent QB (Jonathan Crompton) and the defense put together by legend Monte Kiffin. They still have the higher-regarded recruits, even with most of the roster still being comprised of Phil Fulmer holdovers. There's no logical reason to pick Vanderbilt in this game.

Sometimes, though, you have to ignore logic and go with your gut. That's what I'm doing here, which probably means another week of recovery is in Vanderbilt's future.

Vanderbitl 14, Tennessee 13

DEFENSE SCHMEFENSE
Mississippi State at Arkansas (Little Rock), 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network / ESPN360

Total offense: 10. Total defense: 97. That's the story of Arkansas' season in brief, and it's the key to understanding the swings in Arkansas' season. When you allow 52 points to an offense led by Joe Cox, you really have no one to blame but yourself.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State's defense is not one of the stronger squads in the league. In fact, it's one of the worst and is now tasked with shutting down the Petrino offense. Good luck with that. If you manage to do that, it's possible that your offense could make enough yards to make a difference, but I wouldn't count on that.

A defeat for the Western Division Bulldogs would officially eliminate Mississippi State from bowl contention and shore up Arkansas' case for a New Year's Day Bowl. Consider both done.

Arkansas 48, Mississippi State 34

NAP
Florida International at Florida, 12:30 p.m. ET, PPV / ESPN360

It's become almost a cliche to call these games "cupcakes" now, but Florida International really is so very awful. The Golden Panthers rank 118th in total defense and 101st in total offense, a combination that against Florida leads to swift and certain doom. Alabama beat FIU by 26 points, which sounds like an accomplishment until you realize that Middle Tennessee State won by 27. Even for the notable problems that Florida has had cruising through games against inferior competition, this game should be over by halftime.

Florida 48, FIU 3

RIP VAN WINKLE
Chattanooga at Alabama, 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network / ESPN360

The Mocs are actually a decent enough Southern Conference team, but that's about the best thing you can say about them. The key to an Alabama win -- other than WE SEC SMASH -- is to shut down B.J. Coleman and the Chattanooga passing attack, which ranks 23rd in the FCS. The rushing offense is terrible and won't be able to carry too much of the load, which means the Mocs also are devoid of the best strategy for pulling the improbable upset (run the clock and play solid defense). Not that it would happen anyway. But that's just one more reason to realize it won't.

Alabam 52, Chattanooga 7

BYES: South Carolina, Auburn

Mountain West and their Road to the BCS: Week 12

Michael Rueckert — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 07:20:29 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

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It's time for our weekly segment where we feature games that will affect the Mountain West's BCS possibilities this season.

Despite crushing the Utes, TCU remained ranked 4th in the polls, behind Alabama, Florida and Texas. TCU only has Wyoming and New Mexico left on their schedule. If they are to get into the BCS National Championship Game, they will need some help.

Fortunately for TCU, Boise State is still ranked two spots behind them with a weak schedule remaining as well. If TCU wins out, they should be a lock to bust the BCS. TCU and Mountain West fans however, are eying the National Championship Game.

With Utah losing their second game, they no longer have an outside shot of making the BCS.

Here is a look at games this weekend that will affect the Mountain West in their BCS hunt.

All times are eastern

No. 4 TCU at Wyoming (The Mtn, 2:00 PM)

TCU is coming off a huge win over Utah, and is traveling to Laramie to take on the Cowboys, who are also coming off a big win over San Diego State.

MWC rooting interest: TCU without a doubt. TCU is almost a lock to bust the BCS, and will do so if they avoid a letdown. The Horned Frogs should roll but they must come prepared to play against a much improved Wyoming team.

Kansas at No. 3 Texas (ABC 8:00 PM)

Its the last home game of the season for the Longhorns who are looking to send their seniors off right.

MWC rooting interest: Kansas. TCU's best chance of getting into the championship game is if Texas loses. Can Kansas pull off the upset? Not likely, Kansas has dropped five games in a row and Texas is playing very well now.

No. 6 Boise State at Utah State (9:30, ESPN 2)

A Friday night appetizer for your Saturday of college football featuring the undefeated Boise State Broncos, going up against Utah State, who is coming off a rare win over San Jose State.

MWC rooting interest: Boise State. Why does this game matter? Having two BCS Busters is definitely a good thing, but I'm thinking more into the future than that. With the Mountain West looking to gain an AQ spot in the BCS, they may expand and add Boise State. The higher Boise State is ranked at the end of the season, the better off the Mountain West is in the evaluation if they decide to expand.

Florida International vs No. 1 Florida (12:30 PM, ESPN 360)

FIU is coming into this game against the top ranked Gators as 45 point underdogs.

MWC rooting interest: Florida International, but don't count on it happening. The Gators best chance to lose before the SEC championship game is against the Seminoles next week. With a loss and a victory over Alabama, Florida still may get a BCS nod over TCU, unless of course it was to an awful team like FIU.

Chattanooga at No. 2 Alabama (12.21 PM, ESPN 360)

Chatta-who? They are a FCS team with a (6-4) record.

MWC rooting interest: Chattanooga. They are just a chew toy for the Crimson Tide as they prepare to face Auburn and Florida. If Chattanooga can pull off the upset, it would be bigger than Appalachian State defeating Michigan but it's simply not going to happen. For the BCS situation see above. (Florida)

Virginia at No. 23 Clemson (3:30, ABC)

Two teams that TCU beat earlier in the season square off. A win for Clemson gives them a spot in the ACC title game.

MWC rooting interest: Clemson. TCU has beaten three teams that are currently ranked in the Top-25. If Clemson loses this game, TCU's case to be in the BCS Championship Game is reduced. TCU must also have BYU and Utah win their MWC games.

SMU at Marshall (4:30, KXXV-TV)

TCU beat SMU 39-14 earlier in the year. SMU just has to win their final two games to appear in the Conference USA Championship Game.

MWC rooting interest: SMU. If Southern Methodist wins the Conference USA it certainly helps TCU. The Frogs have the potential of claiming that they beat the ACC champion, Conference USA champion as well as going undefeated in a tough Mountain West. A SMU would help TCU in the computers as well.

Memphis at No. 24 Houston (1:00 PM, CSS)

If Houston loses one game, SMU will clinch a Conference USA Championship Game birth.

MWC rooting interest: Memphis. If SMU loses, they can still make the Conference USA Championship Game if Houston loses a game as well. Houston also shares common opponents with Texas. Texas' best win was over Oklahoma State, who was defeated by Houston. If Houston falls in the computers, so does Oklahoma State and ultimately Texas.

Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC

T Kyle King — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 04:17:05 -0000

As I first began looking ahead to another lackluster weekend of college football action in the SEC, it occurred to me that there’d probably be more good games if there weren’t so many mediocre teams. Take that for whatever it’s worth as you consider the fact that I went 5-1 in last week’s league prognostications to improve my conference record for the season as a whole to 62-11. Since it’s essentially inevitable that the bottom will fall out sooner or later, now’s right about the right time to drop any trust you have reposed in my forecasting skills, so remember . . . Don’t Bet On It!

The following games will be played on Saturday, November 21, because the SEC may be down, but we’re not the MAC, dadgum it:

Chattanooga Mocs at Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tennesseans are still smarting from their near-miss in Tuscaloosa last month and this is the chance for UT to pay back its longstanding rival on a rare "third Saturday in November" rematch. Wait, hold on . . . the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga? Oh, well, then ’Bama ought to roll them up and smoke them.

Fla. International Golden Panthers at Florida Gators: Local pride is on the line as the Sunshine State Saurians look to wrap up a perfect regular season as well as in-state bragging rights against their fellow Floridians in a barn-burner in Gainesville. You think I’m kidding, right? The situation at FIU hasn’t gotten so desperate that the wife of the Panthers’ head coach is openly declaring that the university needs her husband more than he needs the institution, has it? Well, all right, then. Despite the import of this game, I like the Gators to sneak by the Panthers and claim the state championship before taking on next week’s patsy.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers: 2008 was the first year since 1955 in which Vanderbilt went to a bowl game in a season in which Tennessee didn’t . . . yet, even then, the ‘Dores couldn’t get the better of the Vols, falling to the Big Orange in Nashville by a ten-point margin. (Incidentally, in their 1955 Gator Bowl season, the Commies also lost to Tennessee.) What would possibly make us think Vandy could pull out a victory in Knoxville in a year in which the Volunteers are better and the Music City Sailors are worse?

Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks: Don’t look now, but the Hogs are sporting their first three-game winning streak since winning ten in a row between season-opening and season-ending losses to top ten teams in 2006. I wouldn’t read too much into the Razorbacks’ resurgence---that trio of triumphs came against winless Eastern Michigan (which tied its season-high point tally against Arkansas), fading South Carolina, and perennial SEC schedule fodder Troy---but, until Dan Mullen gets the horses into Starkville that will enable him to translate "improvement" into "wins," I’m going with the Hogs in Little Rock.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels: Go ahead. Root for the Rebels. You know you want to do it, so go ahead. Give in to the temptation. You want to cheer for Ole Miss, and we all know why. I’ll go ahead and say it: Dexter McCluster. Right now, wherever you are, utter the name aloud: "Dexter McCluster." It’s just plain fun to say, and you know it. Games like this one make you wish Larry Munson would come out of retirement to call this game, just so you could hear him say, "Oh, you Dexter McCluster!" or, "Run, Dexter, run! Dexter McCluster! Dexter McCluster! Dexter McCluster!" or, "We just stepped on their Dexter with a hobnailed boot and broke their McCluster!" Cheer for Dexter McCluster as he almost (but not quite) carries the Rebs to victory over Louisiana State.

Hopefully, you are not even considering lending the least bit of credence to any portion of the foregoing, but, on the off chance you may deem my prognostications so compelling that you are inclined to place wagers based upon my predictions, please take a moment to reconsider and remember the most crucial piece of advice I give you each week: ~~Abandon All Hope and Expect the Worst!~~ Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Don't Bet On It!: National Game of Disinterest

T Kyle King — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:54:43 -0000

Your patience is about to be rewarded, faithful reader. You have reviewed the national games of interest and followed me around the SEC, so just one stop remains on our tour of the weekend’s college football action. It is now time to take a look at tomorrow’s least compelling matchup, to which we here at Dawg Sports refer as the national game of disinterest.

It was tough to find this week’s least worthy contest. Dishonorable mention goes to the Indiana Hoosiers’ visit to the home of the Northwestern Wildcats for a game pitting a pair of 4-3 teams sporting 1-2 records in Big Ten play. Consideration was given to recognizing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights’ face-off with the Army Black Knights, which is going on even as I write and which does not feature jousting, despite the names of the contestants.

State University of New Jersey alumna Kristin Davis was not pleased by the preceding dig at her alma mater, but, as a professional actress, she was able to hide her outrage effectively.

At the end of the day, though, there could be only one choice for the national game of disinterest:

Florida Atlantic Owls at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

Honestly, this would be more intriguing if you took the college football teams out of it altogether and just went with the mascots. I was a "Twin Peaks" fan and I saw "Southern Comfort," so I can tell you with absolute certainty that a fight between large fierce birds embodying evil spirits and rural Louisianans inebriated to the point of anger on homemade alcoholic beverages would be much more fun to watch than a Sun Belt Conference outing.

The real problem with this game, though, is that I, like 98 per cent of all college football fans, can’t tell either of these teams from their in-state rivals.

Be honest. If I’d just said it was the Owls, you wouldn’t have known for sure whether we were talking about FAU or FIU. At this very moment, you’re giving serious consideration to running a surreptitious Google search to see whether the Owls are the ones who are coached by Howard Schnellenberger.

Having one team like that in a game is bad enough, but you had the same reaction to the other competitor. If I’d just said it was the Ragin’ Cajuns, you wouldn’t have known for sure whether we were talking about Louisiana-Lafayette or Louisiana-Monroe. At this very moment, you’re giving serious consideration to running a surreptitious Google search to see whether the Ragin’ Cajuns are the ones who used to be the Indians until they changed their mascot to something more politically correct. (Hey, "Ragin’ Cajuns" is just as politically correct as "Warhawks," which is to say, not.)

When knowledgeable college football fans don’t know for sure who either team is, you have all the ingredients of the national game of disinterest. All that’s missing, really, is pervasive doubt over whether either or both of these teams plays in the Atlantic or Coastal Divisions of the ACC.

Go ‘Dawgs!

How Bad Was Alabama's Struggle with FIU?

Year2 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:30:16 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

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This is two straight years that Alabama has made a statement in its first game and come out flat in its second game. The general feeling I've unscientifically absorbed from around is that somehow this year's struggle game against FIU was worse than last year's struggle game against Tulane.

After looking into things closely, I think I know why that feeling is going around. I also would disagree with it myself, but your mileage may vary.

Perception

Last year at this time the question was, "Is Alabama for real?" This year, Bama was a preseason top five team. They were not supposed to ever look bad for a half against a Sun Belt team if you're preseason top five.

Another thing kicking in is FIU's reputation. Tulane went 2-10 last year. FIU, believe it or not, was a game away from bowl eligibility at 5-7. The Golden Panthers still got blown out by teams like Kansas and Iowa, but they were competitive within the conference and are no longer an instant 50 point win for any Big Six conference team. They've always been feisty even when they were horrendous, and the program is moving in the right direction under Mario Cristobal, but most folks assume they're still in danger of going winless year in and year out.

FIU: always been feisty, even when horrendous.

Isolated Stats

Alabama has had some trouble with kickoff coverage. Did you know they allowed a return for a touchdown against FIU? Horrible! Well, that's what the instant, gut reaction would say anyway.

Also, FIU jumped out at the beginning and scored some early points. Sure, they were doing something entirely different from what they did in the past, surprising the Tide defense, but hey, why not break out the torches and pitchforks? They've been getting awfully lonely since they were last used in January.

A Look at What Happened Overall

I'm going to break out the charts I used last week for year-over-year comparisons. As with then, sacks are removed from the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. TULANE	vs. FIU
Total Yards	201	531
Passing	73	241
Yds. per Pass	3.2	10.0
Rushing	128	290
Yds. per Rush	5.8	7.1
Turnovers	1	0
Time of Poss.	23:25	31:38
Sacks All.	4 (-29 yards)	1(-15 yards)

Alabama wasn't just better against FIU than it was against Tulane, it was much better in every way. I mean, look at what happened with John Parker Wilson last year. He threw for a pitiful 73 yards on 3.2 yards per pass and, despite playing behind the vaunted Tide line, was sacked four times. Take sacks out of total yards again Alabama is firmly under 200 total yards.

Against FIU, Alabama had its way. Greg McElroy got sacked just once and averaged a first down per pass. The rushing game stepped things up by more than a yard per carry. For whatever complaints you can have about the game, this is what powerhouses do in cupcake games. They run up huge totals across the board.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. TULANE	vs. FIU
Total Yards	326	252
Passing	232	213
Yds. per Pass	4.6	5.6
Rushing	94	39
Yds. per Rush	3.0	1.9
Turnovers	0	1
Time of Poss.	36:35	28:22
Sacks For	1 (-8 yards)	5 (-38 yards)

The pass defense is clearly the concern here, as the yards per pass increased even as the total passing yards decreased. But again, FIU did new things that caught Bama off guard. Any defense can look bad for a couple drives if it has prepared for something different than what the offense is showing. But, the Alabama defense did adjust. It allowed 95 yards in FIU's first two drives, 85 yards in the depths of garbage time, and 24 in between. That's how you fix what's wrong.

The rushing defense also was a lot better. Any time you can hold a opponent under a sack-adjusted threshold of two yards a carry, you had a great day. Also note the sack total that went way up.

So what does this all mean?

Alabama's game against Tulane last year fits the profile of a good but not great team having a bad day. Alabama's game against FIU this year fits the profile of a great team that had a rough start on one half of the ball. The kickoff returns are a legitimate source of concern, but not a whole lot else is.

As for the surprisingly lively North Texas (beat Ball State, lost by one in OT to Ohio) this week? Well, last year Alabama came back from the Tulane debacle and whipped Western Kentucky 41-7. A similar score versus the Mean Green would not surprise me one bit.

Running Back Success Rates vs. FIU: Grant, Ingram, Goode

Nico2.0 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:33:58 -0000

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Terry Grant runs for a 42 yard TD against FIU.

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Earlier this week, I posted the RB success rate data and charts against FIU for Roy Upchurch, Julio Jones and Trent Richardson. Some real life business that I had to attend to earlier in the week prevented me from doing all six carriers at once and so now I present the other three ball carriers from last weekend's game: Terry Grant, Mark Ingram and Demetrius Goode. In the future, these will be posted the Monday after the game.

For a brief reminder of what makes a carry a successful carry:

1st down: Runner gains 40% of the necessary yardage
2nd down: Runner gains 60% of the necessary yardage
3rd & 4th down: Runner gains 100% of the necessary yardage

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	6	69	11.5	1	0	0	0	0

A very small sample size to work with, but basically, Terry got the job done when we put the ball in his hands last weekend. Though he only had six touches, he created a lot out of them gaining 69 yards and a TD. He only had two unsuccessful carries: a three yard loss on his first carry and a gain of three on a third down when four yards were needed. In the instance of the 3rd and 4, it was late in the game and we were just trying to kill the clock off and not kick a field goal/run up the score, so we went for it on 4th and 1 and Grant converted it. Needless to say, his highlight moment was breaking off a 42 yard touchdown run.

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	10	56	5.6	1	4	47	11.8	0

We weren't really sure how much we were going to see of Ingram against FIU, but he wound up playing a pretty good bit all things considered. He had 10 carries and four receptions for 103 all-purpose yards. Not too shabby for someone that probably wasn't functioning at 100%. Ingram got the lion's share of his carries in the first half and his three second half carries all occurred when it was still 20-14. Needless to say, we're deep at the position and could rely on others to wear their defense down. His percentage would've likely been higher if not for making a carry on the statistic-skewing down of 2nd & 25.

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	4	24	6	0	0	0	0	0

Goode made four of the last six carries of the game. Needless to say, it was clock killing time. That being said, he kept the chains moving and accomplished what he was sent in to do.

As OTS mentioned in the comments of the first post, this isn't very telling against Sun Belt defenses, but it's still good to look at. Once we get into the meat of the schedule, this kind of analysis will really tell us a lot more about our running game performance. I'm hoping to get the Virginia Tech game stats done tonight and posted this evening or tomorrow so we can see some data about our running game against a BCS defense.

FIU Penalties Breakdown

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:00:16 -0000

After the Virginia Tech game last week we took a closer look breaking down the penalties and how they harmed the Tide.As long as the penalties keep up I figure it's a good idea to keep a running tally of these things, and unfortunately with seven penalties for 65 yards in the FIU game, I'm afraid to say that the rash of penalties did continue. Thus, here's a closer look at the penalties themselves:

False start penalty on Barrett Jones in the first quarter, when the Tide had a 2nd and 6 at the FIU 10 yard line. The penalty effectively negated a four-yard run on first down by Mark Ingram, and combined with the penalty that followed on the next play forced the Tide to settle for a field goal.

Holding penalty on Drew Davis in the first quarter, immediately following Barrett Jones' false start penalty. The hold wiped out an eight-yard reception by Mike McCoy that would have set up a 3rd and 3 situation for the Tide, and moved 'Bama into a 2nd and 21. Trent Richardson ran for six yards the following play, and Ingram took a dump pass for another seven, but ultimately the Tide was faced with a fourth and long situation and was forced to settle for a Leigh Tiffin field goal.

Pass interference on Kareem Jackson early on the second quarter on a 2nd and 17 from the FIU 49. Florida International had a clipping penalty before this which set up a 1st and 25 situation, but the interference call erased what would have been a third and long situation for the Golden Panthers, giving them new life with a first down at the Alabama 36-yard line. Six plays later, Paul McCall would hit Greg Ellingson for a touchdown pass, temporarily giving FIU a narrow 14-13 lead.

False start penalty called on Marcell Dareus on the extra point after Mark Ingram's touchdown run in the second quarter. Ordinarily this penalty would not have cost the Tide because the extra point try was ultimately successful, but in this unique situation it actually did cost us. The five-yard false start penalty moved the ball back to the 8-yard line, and when FIU was called immediately thereafter for having twelve men on the field, the ball was moved half the distance to the goal, thus putting it on the four-yard line. Had we not had the false start penalty, the ball would have been moved to within 4.5 feet of the goal line, and Nick Saban was planning to send Terrence Cody into the game to be a lead blocker on the two-point conversion opportunity. The false start penalty on Dareus, then, forced the Tide to forgo the possible two-point try.

False start penalty on Barrett Jones early in the third quarter. We had just taken the ball over on the FIU 42 yard line after 29-yard punt return by Javier Arenas. This was Jones' second false start penalty of the night, but fortunately it did not cost the Tide here, as Trent Richardson gained 18 yards over the course of the next two plays with a fine run and a nice catch out of the backfield. Unfortunately, after the Richardson first down, the Tide was unable to convert on third and short with Mark Ingram in the game, and a Leigh Tiffin field goal attempt sailed wide left.

Holding penalty on William Vlachos early in the fourth quarter at the Alabama 46. The penalty occurred on a 1st and 10 and wiped out a two-yard run by Trent Richardson, but it ultimately turned out to be harmless. Even despite the fact that the Tide had the game well in hand with a 33-14 lead at the time, Trent Richardson immediately hereafter ripped off runs of 10 and 12 yards, respectively, and the following play Terry Grant raced around left end for a 42-yard touchdown run.

Facemask penalty called on Ali Sharrief early in the fourth quarter. I really have no clue what happened here because the play-by-play data at RollTide.com only says "Team Rush," but either way it was a fifteen yard penalty that gave FIU a 1st and 10 at the Alabama 21-yard line. Ultimately, though, it was pointless because the next three plays for the Golden Panthers only netted four yards, and Mark Barron intercepted a pass on the fourth down play.

So, all in all, seven penalties for 65 yards, and to be quite frank a lot of them were really costly. The last two penalties padded the penalty yardage by 25 yards, but they were in effect meaningless. We overcome both with relative ease and even had that not been the case the game was well at hand by the time they occurred. The other five penalties, though, were really costly because each and every single one of those penalties directly cost us points. We ended up winning by 26 points and putting 40 points up on the board in our own right, but without those five penalties, we score more points, FIU scores fewer, and the margin of victory is a good bit higher. And perhaps most concerning of all, four more penalties were called on the offensive line this week. Bottom line, as has been the general theme of the FIU postgame, there's no major room to complain, but there is still clearly room for work to be done for the Tide.

Editors note: Click here for the Virginia Tech penalties breakdown.

Running Back Success Rates vs. FIU: Upchurch, Jones, Richardson

Nico2.0 — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:00:47 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Trent Richardson logged a staggering 89% successful rush rate in the 2nd half of the game against FIU.

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This week, we're going to welcome back the Running Back Success Rate analysis. This has been popular over the last year or so and we'll be doing it for every game again this year. We simply forgot to do it for week one against Virginia Tech and that'll appear later this week because, hey, we're Alabama fans and we'll obsess over this kind of stuff all day long even if it was nearly two weeks ago by the time it gets posted. In the future, we'll typically run this bit of info on the Monday following the game. Due to real life intrusions and the fact that we had six people (not counting the QB) carry the ball, I'm going to break this week's analysis into two parts: one to be posted today and the other on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

For those of you unfamiliar with the Running Back Success Rate metric, the idea behind it goes a little something like this: The oft-seen "yards per carry" stat is frequently misinterpreted and/or abused when determining a running back's success during a game. A running back could have 20 carries for 100 yards and you think, "Hey, that's five yards per carry. That's pretty solid." But what if it were one carry for 81 yards and 19 more carries for one yard each? All of a sudden, that doesn't look so productive anymore unless that 81 yard run produced a game winning TD. What the running back success rate aims to do is to treat each carry as a success or a failure and to take down and distance into account to measure the success or failure of a carry. It is measured like this: A first down rush is successful if it covers 40% of the yardage needed for a first down, a second down requires 60% and third and fourth downs require 100% of the needed yardage to be achieved to be deemed a success.

Of course, there is no perfect measure of success, but we here at RBR feel this metric is more accurate than the oft-cited yards per carry stat. It should be noted that only designed runs count and so we're not going to determine the successes and failures of QB runs off of busted plays. (note: any of the spreadsheet graphics can be enlarged by clicking on them...really only necessary with the Richardson chart.)

I'll introduce the RBs below in the order they got their first carry of the evening. First up, Roy Upchurch:

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Roy Upchurch	4	17	4.3	0	0	0	0	0

Upchurch took four of the first five carries of the evening. Unfortunately, the injury bug struck again and Roy's evening ended at four carries. Besides the obvious of never wanting to see a player hurt, Upchurch was looking like he'd be in good form for the evening as he finished with a 75% success rate. Two of them were big gains on first and ten and the other success was a successful third down conversion. Only his first carry (also our first offensive play of the game) was a failure. Needless to say, we wish Upchurch a speedy recovery.

Next up: JULIO JONES

No, he's not a running back, but if you're taking handoffs or pitches in the backfield then it's a designed run play and you're essentially a running back on that play. Unfortunately SBN's nifty little widgets don't produce rushing stats for players listed as receivers so we won't have that on hand for reverses, endarounds, etc. to receivers. Anyway...

Julio's lone carry picked up a first down and then some. I imagine we're going to see more of this kind of stuff in the future, though hopefully without the injuries. On to the next player and back to a true RB:

vs Florida Intl / 9.12.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	15	118	7.9	2	2	23	11.5	0

Needless to say, Richardson had a monster of a game, or more precisely a monster of a second half. He was only successful on a third of his carries in the first half; though that does include an unsuccessful, stat-skewing carry on 2nd and 21. I suppose that has to be overlooked though considering he made successful carries twice in the second half where more than 10 yards were needed for a first down. He finished the second half with an astronomical 89% success rate and only one carry for less than five yards. This is a heckuva way for a freshman to compete in his second game...and no, I don't care if it was just FIU, that's big time for a new player no matter who the competition is. He ended up with a 67% success rating for the evening and had two TDs and a couple of receptions as well (not to mention picking up several first downs.) Hopefully this is just a small taste of what's to come from Mr. Richardson. So far, he looks as good as advertised with 141 total yards and a pair of TDs for the night.

Success rates for Terry Grant, Mark Ingram and Demetrius Goode will be in part two.

Who's Going to Be a Contender? Georgia-South Carolina, UCLA-Tennessee and Other Week 2 Action

cocknfire — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 14:00:40 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

'We have an offense after all!'

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SAY WHAT?
Georgia 41, South Carolina 37

It's almost impossible to compile a complete list of all the things that we did not expect to happen in Athens this week that took place anyway.

78 points, more than in any other game played by an SEC team this year
735 combined yards of offense
Two TDs apiece from Joe Cox and Stephen Garcia
11 players with at least three receptions
Seven drives of more than 50 yards

This from two teams who had scored just 17 combined points against defenses expected to be on par or worse than the opponent they would face this week.

For fans of both Georgia and South Carolina, the most encouraging part of the game had to be the play of Cox and Garcia, who had gone from a reason for optimism to punch lines in the span of one underwhelming weekend.

vs South Carolina / 9.12.09	Passing							Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	INT	RAT	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Joe Cox	17	24	70.0	201	2	1	160.35	4	-24	-6.0	0

vs Georgia / 9.12.09	Passing							Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	INT	RAT	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Stephen Garcia	31	53	60.0	313	2	1	116.78	10	42	4.2	0

For Garcia, this was far more than managing a game, as he seized Steve Spurrier's order to throw more and longer -- the 53 attempts was by far a career high. And while his rating wasn't that high, it was clear that Garcia has the ability to lead more strong offensive showings by the the Gamecocks in the future.

And while Cox's numbers aren't as spectacular from a yardage standpoint, he is different from Garcia in two significant ways: he is not expected to be the Future of the Program and he has a better supporting cast in Athens.

Both running games were tied down by the opposing defense, with Georgia earning just 3.7 yards a carry and South Carolina earning an average of just 3.8 yards.

What does this mean for these two teams? It's not clear, but we have some indications. For Georgia, a season that seemed close to running off the rails just a few days ago now seems back on track. And for South Carolina, they went from being the team that managed to hang in with Georgia during close games to being a team that could keep up with one of the SEC East's major teams on offense when a shootout broke out.

But it is just one game. It takes more than a single good night in Athens to make a great quarterback, and more than one win or moral victory to make a great team.

WILL THE REAL JONATHAN CROMPTON PLEASE STAND UP?
UCLA 19, Tennessee 15

Aside from doubts about Lane Kiffin's coaching ability, the top question for the Vols coming into this season was whether Jonathan Crompton would improve in his second year as an SEC starting quarterback. The results against Western Kentucky were promising. The numbers against UCLA, not so much.

vs UCLA / 9.12.09	Passing							Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	INT	RAT	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Jonathan Crompton	13	26	50.0	93	0	3	56.97	7	-8	-1.1	0

Not that the rest of the Tennessee offense was very impressive. The running game averaged just 2.6 yards a carry and the longest rush was for 13 yards. Daniel Lincoln scored more points than the rest of the offense combined -- and he's the place kicker.

The defense played well -- the Vols actually outgained UCLA by 22 yards -- but defense was not the issue in last year's dismal 5-7 campaign. And so the talk ahead of this weekend's showdown with the Gators will inevitably swing back to what it was before last week's offensive fireworks show: By just how many points will Florida win? For Tennessee, it seems, the Lane Kiffin Experiment is back to square one.

AT LEAST THEY NEVER TRAILED
LSU 23, Vanderbilt 9

When does this start to feel a bit like last year, when we excuse any early doubt about the Tigers with a "Yeah, but they're LSU and will turn a corner soon enough"?

After all, any SEC fan knows not to read too much into any game against Vanderbilt -- but the Tigers offense, which looked so good against Washington, was far from convincing in this one. Jordan Jefferson had a nice completion percentage (20-of-29) but averaged just 4.9 yards an attempt and didn't throw a TD. The Bayou Bengals did average a not-shabby 4.2 yards a rush, but their longest run went for 14 yards. Sure, the defense was better. But winning the SEC West will require both halves of the team to play well at the same time.

For Vanderbilt, this was a return to earth for the offense after cruising past Western Carolina in their opener. They gained just 210 yards, 88 of them passing, and had as many turnovers (one interception) as TDs. No receiver gained more than 30 yards. That also will not do in the SEC East.

THEY COULD BE A CONTENDER
Auburn 49, Mississippi State 24

At some point, if they keep playing like this, we have to begin to consider Auburn as at least a potential contender in the SEC West. I'm not sure when that tipping point comes -- the Tigers' next two games are against West Virginia and Ball State, and their next SEC contest comes at Tennessee.

But Auburn has done all that you could have asked them to do to this point. They blew out a mid-major that was expected to give them heartburn. And after allowing Mississippi State to take a 17-14 lead in the second quarter, the Tigers ran away with the game, scoring the next 28 points in the game while piling up 589 yards. QB Chris Todd was far from impressive -- 10-of-23 for 186 yards -- but he didn't throw an interception, and if the running game can gain 390 yards a week, there won't be a need for Todd to make many plays.

Then again, it was Louisiana Tech last year and it was Mississippi State this year. As long as the names are the marquee conference powers, the Tigers aren't going to get much credit, and perhaps they shouldn't.

As for Mississippi State, there were some hopeful signs in this game. Anthony Dixon came back and rushed for 92 yards and a TD on 20 carries. And a teamwide 4.4 ypc average against an SEC defense is nothing to be ashamed of. But Chris Relf threw two picks.

And that defense ...

PICKING AT NITS
Florida 56, Troy 6

There was a point at which the Gators were almost 19 minutes into this one and still leading only 7-3 against a team from the Sun Belt. Then Florida scored four unanswered touchdowns in a bit more than seven minutes to quickly erase whatever fleeting thought the other Trojans had of pulling off an upset.

Sure, there are a few things you can find if you're Urban Meyer and trying to keep your players from getting too full of themselves before Tennessee comes to town. The Gators coughed up three fumbles and missed a 39-yard field goal. But they churned out 32 first downs and 663 yards. The defense held Levi Brown to 2.8 yards a passing attempt and the Trojans to 2.1 yards a rush. Even John Brantley (10-of-12, 135 yards, 1 TD) looked good in relief of Tim Tebow.

We still have nothing that would make us doubt all the national title talk surrounding the Gators. This weeked provides a chance to plant the seed of doubt, but not much more than that.

TULANE REDUX? HARDLY
Alabama 40, Florida International 14

There was a fear that the deja vu that Alabama experienced in Week 1 -- convincingly defeating a national title contender from the ACC -- would be matched by yet another bout of deja vu the following week by looking flat against a lightly regarded mid-major. After all, the Tide only defeated Tulane last year by a 20-6 margin, and the game wasn't truly out of reach until Bama took a 20-3 lead as time expired in the third quarter on a Mark Ingram TD run.

It looked like a replay might be underway when Florida International took a 14-13 lead in the second quarter. But that was all the Golden Panters would get as Alabama reeled off 27 straight to make the game a rout. And unlike last year, when the Tide was outgained by 146 yards, Alabama held a 516-214 advantage at the end of the game, in part because the defense held FIU to 1 yard rushing on 26 carries. Total, not average.

Greg McElroy looked solid again, going 18-of-24 for 241 yards and a score. Alabama's rushing attack averaged 6.5 ypc. Now they just have to worry about the inevitable letdown against North Texas.