SB Nation - Fresno St. Bulldogs

New Mexico Bowl: A look at the stats

The Road — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:59:49 -0000

The Wyoming Cowboys are going bowling for the first time since 2004 and they face a tough challenge as they take on the Fresno Sate Bulldogs. Fresno features an explosive offense led by the Ryan's. Ryan Mathews is one of the nations leading rushers and Ryan Colburn is a quality gunslinger.

Wyoming didn't have have any victories over teams with winning records and Fresno only had one which was a victory over Idaho. If this game turns into a shootout then the Bulldogs should win easily. Wyoming needs to control the game clock and win the turnover battle.

Stats are after the jump. A full game preview will be up next week.

Category	Wyoming	Fresno State
Scoring Offense (PPG)	#111 - 16.9	#14 - 34.3
Rushing Offense (Yards)	#86 - 128.0	#7 - 231.58
Passing Offense (Yards)	#103 - 107.7	#79 - 204.8
Total Offense (Yards)	#112 - 298.7	#19 - 435.9
Turnover Margin (season)	#20 +7	#105 -9
Penalties (Yards per G)	#91 - 61.7	#6 - 37.8
3rd Down Conversions	#102 - 33.87	#20 - 45.73
Red Zone Conversions	#100 - 74.19%	#63 - 81.63%
Time of Possession	#103 - 28:22	#11 - 32:19
Total Defense (Yards)	#83 - 394.3	#97 - 411.7
Opponent 3rd Down Conv.	#75 - 40.24	#62 - 39.04
Sacks (Per Game)	#78 - 20	#120 - 9

Week Fourteen BlogPoll Ballot Draft

T Kyle King — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:52:12 -0000

The time has come to cast my final regular-season BlogPoll ballot---or, at least, I think it has; I’m assuming we’re not submitting new top 25s after next weekend’s Army-Navy game---and here is what I came up with after starting with a blank piece of paper:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Cincinnati	2
3	Texas
4	Boise State	1
5	TCU	1
6	Florida	4
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Georgia Tech	1
10	Iowa	1
11	West Virginia	9
12	LSU	1
13	Arizona
14	Oregon State	2
15	Southern Cal
16	Virginia Tech	5
17	Stanford
18	Miami (Florida)	4
19	Pittsburgh	7
20	California	1
21	Oklahoma State	2
22	Brigham Young	1
23	Nebraska	1
24	Penn State	7
25	Wisconsin	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Houston (#18), Central Michigan (#25).

The Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) are No. 1. Duh! Of the dozen Division I-A opponents beaten by Nick Saban’s squad, nine finished with winning records, including the sixth-ranked Florida Gators, the twelfth-ranked LSU Tigers, and the 16th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies. The Tide’s only close calls came in rivalry games against teams who will be playing on New Year’s Eve or later.

In spite of their close call against the Pittsburgh Panthers in a game played in the snow featuring two botched extra point attempts, the Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) captured the No. 2 spot on my ballot by virtue of seven regular-season wins over teams that finished above .500, among them the 11th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, the 14th-ranked Oregon St. Beavers, and 19th-ranked Pitt. Also, Cincy gets credit for having a logo reminiscent of Chick-fil-A's.

While I understand and respect C&F’s argument, I awarded the No. 3 ranking to the Texas Longhorns (13-0) because Mack Brown’s outfit went undefeated against a slate that included no Division I-AA schedule fodder and only four teams that posted losing ledgers. Wins over the No. 21 Oklahoma St. Cowboys and the No. 23 Nebraska Cornhuskers provided heft to the Big 12 standard-bearer’s resume.

I ranked the Boise St. Broncos (13-0) ahead of the TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) for a variety of reasons. Both took advantage of a Division I-AA victim and each faced five Division I-A teams with winning records, but Boise State has an additional win and Texas Christian has two close shaves (at Air Force and at Clemson) as opposed to the Broncos’ one (at Tulsa). Boise State’s second- and third-best wins (over Nevada and Fresno State) are comparable to the Frogs’ (over Utah and Clemson), but the Broncos’ marquee victory over the seven-ranked Oregon Ducks far outshines TCU’s best pelt, that of the 22nd-ranked BYU Cougars.

The Sunshine State Saurians (12-1) slipped to sixth after their less than competitive neutral site outing against ‘Bama, as befits the nation’s lone once-beaten team, and Oregon (10-2) led the parade of two-loss teams because the Ducks fell to two quality teams on the road and made up for those setbacks with wins over three teams ranked in my top 20 (Arizona, Oregon State, and Cal).

The Ohio St. Buckeyes (10-2) earned a No. 8 ranking on the strength of wins over the tenth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes, the 24th-ranked Penn St. Nittany Lions, and the 25th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) rode their ~~fourth-place finish in the SEC East~~ ACC championship to the No. 9 ranking, although the Ramblin’ Wreck’s loss to the Georgia Bulldogs at home serves as a drag on a resume that includes five close calls in the Golden Tornado’s ten Division I-A wins. Only two of the Engineers’ victims finished with fewer than five losses, but one of those triumphs came over No. 16 VPI.

Iowa (10-2) carded quality victories over a trio of top 25 teams (Arizona, Penn State, and Wisconsin, all by double-digit margins) to overcome respectable losses to Ohio State and Northwestern, both of whom will be playing on New Year’s Day. (For whatever it might be worth, I would point out that the five BCS bowls pit No. 9 v. No. 10, No. 7 v. No. 8, No. 4 v. No. 5, No. 2 v. No. 6, and No. 1 v. No. 3 on my ballot. This ought to be a pretty good bowl season.)

West Virginia narrowly edged out Louisiana State in my estimation. Both teams boasted similar resumes: both finished 9-3; both won three games by a touchdown or less; both lost one game by a touchdown or less. However, as ashamed as I am to admit it, the Mountain Men’s win over Pitt counts for more this season than the Bayou Bengals’ win over Georgia. I know, it hurts me to admit that, too; visions of Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino will haunt my dreams tonight.

A glut of 8-4 clubs out of the Pac-10 proved difficult to untangle, but I declared the Arizona Wildcats first among equals by awarding Mike Stoops’s troops the No. 13 ranking. Three of Arizona’s four losses came on the road, two of them were nailbiters, and only one of them was the handiwork of a team with fewer than eight wins. The Wildcats carded victories over No. 14 Oregon State, the 15th-ranked USC Trojans, and the 17th-ranked Stanford Cardinal, with Central Michigan thrown in for good measure.

The Beavers landed right behind Arizona, partly because of wins over Cal and Stanford but mostly because of a quartet of quality losses. Oregon State’s four setbacks all came against opponents sporting eight or more wins, and, of the four, only the one against the No. 2 team in the country wasn’t a close call.

I will grant that it appears somewhat strange that I placed Stanford at No. 17, two spots behind Southern California (a club the Cardinal beat handily in Los Angeles) and three spots ahead of the California Golden Bears (a squad that defeated Jim Harbaugh’s outfit at the Farm), but Stanford had no legitimate third-best victory after the Cardinal’s wins over Oregon and USC to overcome the trio of triumphs notched by the Men of Troy over Ohio State, Oregon State, and Cal. Likewise, the Bears of Berkeley had trouble overcoming the fact that all four of their losses came by margins of 17 points or more. Oddly enough, Southern California, Stanford, and California each lost to a 5-7 team on the road, but the Trojans’ loss to the Washington Huskies and the Cardinal’s loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at least had the virtue of being close.

Sandwiched amid those West Coast outfits were No. 16 Virginia Tech (9-3), which beat top 25 teams Miami and Nebraska while sustaining three respectable defeats (including two to top ten squads); the 18th-ranked Miami Hurricanes (9-3), who are able to boast of a marquee win over Georgia Tech; and 19th-ranked Pittsburgh (9-3), which sneaked ahead of California by virtue of a more forgivable set of losses. The Panthers’ three setbacks all came by close margins, with two of those coming in down-to-the-wire clashes with top eleven opponents Cincinnati and West Virginia. Pitt’s loss to N.C. State was comparable to Cal’s loss to Washington---both came on the road against 5-7 squads---but the Wolfpack won by seven and the Huskies won by 32.

The inclusion of Oklahoma State (9-3) attested to the fact that next year’s BlogPoll should rank only 20 teams instead of 25---which the Associated Press poll did prior to 1989, by the way---but somebody had to be No. 21, so the Pokes were as qualified as anyone. Why was Les Miles’s old team ranked nine spots behind Les Miles’s current team when both have identical records and both count a win over the ‘Dawgs among their most impressive conquests? Simple: LSU lost to three teams with a combined 33-5 record by a combined 62-41 margin, while OSU lost to three teams with a combined 30-8 record by a combined 113-49 margin.

BYU (10-2) had absolutely no business being ranked after getting positively smoked by TCU and the hapless Florida St. Seminoles, but Brigham Young beat the Oklahoma Sooners and the Utah Utes, which counts for something. Nebraska (9-4) did little to impress me in the win column---the ‘Huskers beat only two teams with winning records---but, since all of the Big Red Machine’s losses were to teams that finished .500 or better and three of those were by razor-thin margins, I gave Bo Pelini’s team the benefit of the doubt.

The fact that Penn State (10-2) and Wisconsin (9-3) made the grade proves that I was scraping the bottom of the barrel; both the Nittany Lions and the Badgers lost convincingly to the Big Ten’s two top ten teams and neither beat more than two Division I-A teams that finished above .500, but the dearth of quality squads at the bottom of my ballot allowed a PSU team whose best win was against Temple and a Wiscy unit whose best win was against Fresno State to sneak undeservedly into the top 25.

Consideration was also given to the Boston College Eagles and the Mississippi Rebels. I’d like to tell you that I took a look at the Central Michigan Chippewas, East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Missouri Tigers, Navy Midshipmen, North Carolina Tar Heels, Northwestern Wildcats, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and Texas Tech Red Raiders, but, if I said so, I’d be lying.

I watched the Oregon-Oregon State game on Thursday, the Central Michigan-Ohio (Ohio) game on Friday, and a Saturday slate consisting primarily of the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, Alabama-Florida, and Clemson-Georgia Tech games, with bits of the Nebraska-Texas and Hawaii-Wisconsin tilts sprinkled in for variety.

As always, I actively solicit your input with respect to what is, after all, a draft ballot. Feel free to register your disagreement or lobby for or against particular teams in the comments below.

Go ‘Dawgs!

First Impressions of Bowl Matchups... Really BCS TCU vs. Boise State

Jeremy Mauss — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 04:39:31 -0000

FIESTA BOWL

TCU vs. Boise State
When: Jan. 4/8 p.m.
TV: Fox
Where: Glendale, Ariz.

Now this is a slap in the face to both schools who deserve a better matchup then to face the same team for the third time in seven years in the post season. TCU fans should be happy to be here since this is their first ever BCS appearance. Bronco fans have a mixed feeling toward this game, but since they are an at-large team they are not as upset as TCU fans.

Still not sure why a Big 10 team was chosen ahead of either team, and when the Fiesta Bowl people say they wanted this matchup for TV ratings and ticket sales they are lying. All BCS games will sell out but if they invited Iowa then the numbers would be big.

This should be a great game, and lets hope the offense shows up this year, unlike in San Diego last year.

Early prediction: TCU wins any where from 6-14 points.

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Wyoming vs. Fresno State
When: Dec. 19/4:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Where: Albuquerque, N.M.

Wyoming's first bowl bid since the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, and the Pokes made one of the more impressive turn arounds in the country. This game will feature a potent offense with Fresno going up against a solid Wyoming defense.

The key could be the Wyoming spread offense that can move the ball,and with the Bulldogs weak defense Wyoming could take advantage in this one.

Early prediction: Fresno by three points

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Oregon State vs. BYU
When: Dec. 22/8 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Where: Las Vegas

BYU's second home is in Vegas as this is their fifth trip to the game and they are awarded by playing a fellow top 20 foe. The Oregon State offense is really fast which could cause problems for the Cougar defense. However, on the flipside the BYU offense should be able to score some points against Oregon State.

Early prediction: BYU by 10 points

POINSETTIA BOWL

California vs. Utah
When: Dec. 23/8 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Where: San Diego

The big story line will be that Utah's old offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has the same position at Cal as he had at Utah and for a brief few weeks at Kansas State this past summer. Cal is a hit and miss team, just look at this past weeks game for an example as Cal was humiliate by Washington 42-10.

Early prediction: Utah by four points

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Air Force vs.Houston
When: Dec. 31/noon
TV: ESPN
Where: Fort Worth, Texas

Surprised this matchup was formed since this is the third time these teams met when you go back to last years regular season and bowl game. This will be an entertaining game since Houston throws the ball for over 400 a game while Air Force rushes for 273 yards in the nation.

Early prediction: This is a tough one but Houston by 10.

Illini fall to Fresno State in least likely way possible.

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:11:05 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Browse more photos »

Do you ever feel like God is laughing at you? Well maybe not God per se, but some sort of supernatural force that wants to make sure you learn every sort of disappointment thoroughly. I have seen the Illini lose in a lot of ways, both blowouts and heart breakers, and let me tell you, this was by a wide margin the least likely thing that has ever happened. .

But I digress. For many, many reasons, it has taken me quite some time to write about this game. The last game of any real meaning happened back before Thanksgiving, and without even the selling point of making the entire city of Cincinnati cry there was very little interest left for this last game.

It was senior day though, and the last opportunity for all of us to see #7 go out there and try and recapture the glory one last time. I think a full retrospective on the career of Juice Williams deserves its own dedicated post, so I wont go into the melancholy feelings even I had about realizing it was his last game as an Illini. For now I'll just stick to the game at hand.

I remember hearing in the pressbox that up until the final 8 minutes, this had to be the most boring yet high scoring game there was. And for the most part, it was true. What we saw yesterday were two teams with pretty damn good running backs run almost completely unchecked up and down the field. Ryan Mathews with his 32 carries for 172 yards and Mikel LeShoure with his much more efficient 11 carries for 184 yards. Yes, that is a 16 yard per carry average. I will now, if you will indulge me, try and communicate to you my frustrations with the coaching staff concerning Mikel LeShoure and his playing time.

Mikel LeShoure is, at this very moment, and will be next year the best running back option on this team. It has been proven just about every week since Purdue. That said, Mikel LeShoure had over 200 yards of all purpose yardage, but was given the ball 4 fewer times than his teammate Jason Ford. Ford of course had a decent game with 65 yards, but he had no where near the game that LeShoure did. If ford has any advantage on LeShoure it is in the red zone, where Jason Ford can use his strength to get short yardage. But in the open field, on the read option and on the speed option, or just plain old fashion down hill running Leshoure has proven himself the superior back. The numbers don't lie.

All of this evidence being in place, no one yet has been able to explain to me why, on the last Illini possession, with only a few minutes left on the clock and all that was needed to finish the game off was a first down or two, Jason Ford, and not Mikel Leshoure lined up as the running back.

It was LeShoure after all that had caught the pass for the go ahead touchdown just before. When asked why Mikel was not out there, he simply explained that "we like all of our backs." I interpret that to mean that in the normal rotation of backs, it was Ford's turn. Ford got 3 yards on a run, Juice got 2 yards on a run, and Benn got 3 yards on a catch, not enough for the first down. I am not saying that Leshoure would have been meant a first down, but with his 16 yard per carry average, it could not have hurt.

But the Illini didn't get the first down. And they ended up giving up another touchdown. And then Fresno elected to go for 2. and then this happened.

I was standing on the field with the rest of the media, waiting for the post game interviews etc. I was standing just behind the cameramen, directly parallel with the end zone. I saw the whole thing happen in front of me. I saw the QB chased out of the pocket, I saw him seemingly wrapped up for a sack, I saw his desperate flail of a pass to the end zone, I saw Tavon Wilson and the Fresno receiver grasp at the ball, I saw it bounce into the arms of David Cunningham. I saw the officials signal for a successful conversion, and I don't think I'll be able to figure out all of the things that had to go wrong for the Illini for that to happen. Six feet away from me the Fresno State AD was going absolutely insane yelling at the officials that the conversion had to stand. And it of course did.

This was one of the weirdest plays around, and while it sucked for my team, I suppose I am glad to have seen it in person. Along with being at the 2007 Ohio State game, I guess this the most significant football moment I have seen in person. As an Illini fan, you don't get to see many in the first place, so I guess I should be appreciative.

So closed the 2009 season of Illini football, fitting with the rest of the season, it was not good, but it was exciting.

Stay tuned for a full season in review later this week.

Final Mountain West Football Bowl Projections

Jeremy Mauss — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

What a game last night in the Big XII title game. TCU was less then a foot away from playing in Pasadena, but since that is not the case here are my bowl projections and the official announcement will be announced later this evening on Fox and ESPN at 8pm est.

New Mexico Bowl

Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)

Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force Falcons (7-5) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5)

Las Vegas Bowl

BYU Cougars (10-2) vs. USC Trojans (8-4)

Poinsettia Bowl

Utah Utes (9-3) vs. Cal Golden Bears (8-4)

Sugar Bowl

TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) vs. Florida Gators (12-1)

There you have it, so lets see if these are correct. I have a hard time seeing USC fall that far, but their loss to Arizona puts them there because Stanford will go to the local Emerald Bowl and unless the Sun Bow takes USC they are headed to Vegas.

Below the jump are the last of the 'expert' picks

Brad Edwards' BCS Bowl Projections

Bowl	Matchup
BCS Title	Alabama versus Texas
Rose Bowl	Ohio St. versus Oregon
Fiesta Bowl	TCU versus Boise State
Orange Bowl	Ga. Tech versus Iowa
Sugar Bowl	Florida versus Cincinnati

I still do not see the Fiesta wanting that low of a bowl selection, plus the Fiesta gets to pick after the Sugar Bowl replacement and a Big 10 school is a near guarantee ratings boost. Plus, Boise State and TCU played last year in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Rivals BCS bowl projections

Bowl	Matchup
BCS Title	Alabama versus Texas
Rose Bowl	Ohio St. versus Oregon
Fiesta Bowl	TCU versus Iowa
Orange Bowl	Ga. Tech versus Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl	Florida versus Boise State

Scout's BCS Bowl projections

Bowl	Matchup
BCS Title	Alabama versus Texas
Rose Bowl	Ohio St. versus Oregon
Fiesta Bowl	Boise State versus Iowa
Orange Bowl	Ga. Tech versus TCU
Sugar Bowl	Florida versus Cincinnati

Now lets hear from the readers put your bowl projections in the comment section.

2009 Bowl Projections - Final

Bama Hawkeye — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:01:52 -0000

I'm writing this as the Wisconsin-Hawaii game is wrapping up. Wisconsin is up by more than two touchdowns in the 2nd Quarter, and I don't think that it makes a difference whether they win or lose. I think their slot is set. In fact, after Texas held on to beat Nebraska (despite, not because of Colt McCoy), the Big Ten and BCS bowls seem pretty well set.

Which was the only conference that couldn't deliver a close championship game?

In the six BCS conferences, we had official title games in three conferences and de facto title games in three conferences. The margins in the six games? 1 (Cincy over Pitt), 1 (Texas over Nebraska), 3 (Ohio State over Iowa), 4 (Oregon over Oregon State), 5 (Georgia Tech over Clemson), and 19. Only the "Game of the Century" failed to be a classic. Here are the final projections for the BCS and Big Ten Bowls.

Remember the rules.

The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			My guess is that when the rankings come out tomorrow, it will be Cincinnati, and not TCU that ended up :01 away from a shot at Alabama.
			The Orange Bowl is really hoping that the Fiesta passes on a Big Ten team to match up two undefeated teams in Arizona (it is a hip rumor), but...
			that's not happening. The Fiesta takes Iowa over Penn State. They're the better team.
			What are the odds the Ezekiel 25:17 is written on Tebow's eyeblack at the Sugar Bowl?
			The Big Ten is winning the Rose Bowl this year. It's going to win at least 4 of 7 bowl games.
			The weakness of both teams is in the trenches. Should be a fascinating game.
			So instead of facing a Monte Kiffin defense with a month to prepare, the Badgers get a team that won one of their last six games against 1-A competition? Thank you, Mr. Bloomin' Onion!
			Did you see what CJ Spiller did? Dear God, that's scary.
			Could the Alamo pick Minnesota to avoid a Spartan squad weakened by suspensions? Yes, but it won't. I'm also thinking that it won't miss out on its first chance to host Oklahoma. That means jumping the Sooners over Texas Tech and Missouri.
			Neither fanbase 1) travels exceptionally well and 2) is overly excited for the game. This crowd could be very small.
			Like Notre Dame would ever sully itself by playing a MAC team in a bowl game in Detroit...
			Only Illinois could lose that way to Fresno State. If you're going to finish with a Zook-like record, you'll end up On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Fresno State 53, Illinois 52: We got your Big Ten Game of the Year here

grahamfiller10 — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 21:23:48 -0000

Woah.

4th and 10, six seconds on the clock, Fresno down by seven. A simple 20 yard post is caught by the Bulldog receiver, who stretches from the 2 yard line and barely pushes the ball over the end zone line. Review confirms touchdown...

Illinois 52, FSU 51...

Pat Hill, the "play anywhere, play anyone" coach, decides he'll go for two on the road. The Illini blow up the play, forcing an off-balance throw which is tipped forward into the waiting arms of a 310 lb. Fresno lineman, who barely falls into the end zone...Review confirms that he made it over the line before being felled.

FSU 53, Illinois 52...

So many highlights...Almost 1000 total yards, a circus catch by Hoomanawanui, a completely airborne flip touchdown by LeShour (not to mention 184 yards rushing and two touchdowns by Mikel)...

I know it was a 3 win Illini team fighting for respect only, but the offense looked cohesive against a tough Fresno unit. And I know I've angrily eviscerated the Illinois offensive playcalling all year, but it was a varied and gutsy gameplan from Zook.

The defense was horrendous, getting overrun on power sweeps and rarely making plays on the wide open Bulldog receivers.

Oh and a final note...My prediction for this game...

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts FRESNO STATE by 7

Balanced Bulldogs versus revitalized Juice Williams in his final game. This game has points written all over it. FSU gets an early lead behind their balanced attack and hangs on.

Week 14 in the Non-Con: What I Want

Bama Hawkeye — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:45:08 -0000

We have favorites and we have loyalties, but if the Big Ten is going to climb out the national perception doldrums, we're going to have to do it together. That means that we have to all be pulling in the same direction. Here's what I want to see from each Big Ten team in their non-conference battles this week. These columns started before the conference season and go on after the conference season...

Make sure to go back and submit your picks for Week 14 of the Obligatory Predictions Contest. Weekly winners get a chance to write 500 words on the site.

Illinois (Fresno State)

The Bulldogs are no pushover. They gave the Badgers all they could handle each of the past two years and have won six of their last seven games (it should be noted that their games against Wisconsin, Boise State, and Cincinnati all predated this run). This is not the best Bulldog team of the decade, but it's good enough to beat an Illini squad that doesn't show up. Zook better turn the intensity knob all the way to 11 for this one.

Wisconsin (at Hawaii)

Part two of this Big Ten-WAC Challenge sees the Badgers traveling to Hawaii for a vacation and a football game. If they are too focussed on the former, the likelihood of losing the latter increases by a factor of ten. This is not a good Hawaii squad, but with some home-cooking (the refs are notorious for home town calls in Aloha Stadium), they can pull an upset. They did it last week against a superior Navy squad. Wisconsin should win, but they better not pick up any random Tiki idols...

Hopefully John Clay returns the idol to its proper resting place in the cave before kickoff.

What I Want

I want Illinois to play with the offensive intensity that they showed against Cincinnati. I want Wisconsin to not get flustered when the refs try to screw them.

What I Expect

I expect that we'll end with two wins and a .750 non-con winning percentage.

What We've Got So Far

The Big Ten is 31-11 (.738) out of conference. The league is 5-9 against BCS Conference teams (plus Notre Dame). The league has two losses to non-BCS teams (Northern Illinois over Purdue and Central Michigan over Michigan State).

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 14

Law Buckeye — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:25:08 -0000

So, it all comes down to this. Seattle Hawkeye leads by a comfortable 12 points. Like Charlie Weis's late game instructions to his defense to let Stanford score the go ahead touchdown so that the Irish could get the ball back with time on the clock, the smart thing to do here is to go for upset points and hope for the impossible. If Pitt upsets Cincinnati, Alabama upsets Florida, Clemson upsets Georgia Tech and Seattle Hawkeye does what I expect him to do, and gets more conservative than Jim Tressel with a two touchdown lead, you just might pull it off.

Then again, perhaps you'd rather stick to your gut, and play for second or third place. After all, if this season continues its annoying upsetless ways, your "balls to the wall" ballot might blow up in your face, dropping you to the second tier of the standings.

On the other hand, what if Seattle Hawkeye anticipates the upset strategy, and hedges his bets by picking an upset or two, and buttoning things up the rest of the way? Then, it would appear, you're better off following Vegas and playing straight probabilities, hoping his upsets don't materialize and you catch a lucky break in the form of a perfect margin of victory.

For that matter, when should you enter your picks? Are you brazen enough to show your cards right away, or rather, will you try to snipe the contest eBay-style, publishing your picks mere minutes before Saturday's 11:00 a.m. (EST) deadline? It's certainly to Seattle Hawkeye's advantage to do so. But, then (of course) there's the risk of an unforeseen complication (internet outage, memory lapse, alarm clock failure etc.) that results in you missing the deadline.

I can think of at least seven people that wouldn't be too broken up if Seattle Hawkeye didn't show up at all this week.

The winner of the regular season Obligatory Predictions Competition will be announced next week.

Choose wisely.

1. No. 5 CINCINNATI at No. 15 PITTSBURGH, 12:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts CINCINNATI by 10

Cinci sports a monster passing game with a defensive unit shaped like a sieve. Pitt has a two headed monster for a run game, with the turnover prone Bill Stull at quarterback. During the Pitt-WVU game, ESPN showed the Stull family standing on their own private porch about 200 yards from the field of play - according to Lisa Salters, the family was sick of the constant barrage of insults directed at Stull from the Pitt faithful. That doesn't sound like home field advantage to me.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts CINCINNATI by 10

On December 1st, 2007 No. 2 West Virginia faced unranked Pittsburgh as 28 point favorites, with a bid to the national championship game on the line. Pat White injured his thumb, the Panthers ran the ball out the back of their own endzone (taking the clock with it), and two weeks later Rich Rodriguez belonged to Michigan. True, even with a victory, Cincinnati wil need some unlikely assistance to climb unto the BCS National Championship Game. But the stakes in this one feel errily similar to that cold December night in Morgantown.

Pittsburgh revealed some schematic chinks in its armor in last's week's loss to West Virginia, particularly quarterback Bill Stull's overall decision making. The Panther's rushing attack, led by Freshman Dion Lewis, finds success early, but the long, laborious marching is overshadowed out by a simple truth: no one has figured out how to slow Cincinnati down on offense.

2. FRESNO STATE vs. ILLINOIS, 12:30 p.m. EST (12/5), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts FRESNO STATE by 7

Balanced Bulldogs versus revitalized Juice Williams in his final game. This game has points written all over it. FSU gets an early lead behind their balanced attack and hangs on.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ILLINOIS by 10

It took 9 weeks, but the Illini finally found an offense against Cincinnati. Nice going Ron. Keep it up!

2. THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, No. 1 FLORIDA vs. No. 2 ALABAMA, 4:00 p.m. EST (12/5), CBS

GRAHAMFILLER 10 predicts FLORIDA by 7

The two best defenses in the country match up while CBS explodes into little bitty pieces out of sheer excitement. Verne Lundquist climaxes 13 times before kickoff before smoking a cigarette and taking a nap through the first half. Tebow leads a FG drive early, using his superpowers to gain the skills of Bo Jackson from Tecmo bowl, Jesus, and Tweeter from Varsity Blues. Alabama comes back quickly with a field goal, their players feeling relaxed from not attending a single class the entire semester. Urban Meyer's ingenious playcalling peaks with a triple reverse touchdown run by Demps, who gets three key blocks from Brandon Spikes, and by blocks I mean he literally kills three Alabama tacklers using broken beer bottles and a whipsaw. Lundquist wakes up again, sees the blood and excitement, climaxes again and falls asleep. Florida leads by 7 with a minute remaining but the game is canceled because, in a shocker, Nick Saban takes the Notre Dame head coaching position, stating that "42 million a year is what it's all about, not championships, or golden buildings."

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ALABAMA by 7

The "re-match" quality of the game of the regular season, does a disservice to the Crimson Tide who are a heck of a lot better now than they were a year ago. Sure, Auburn played them close. How many teams did that to Florida? (Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State...)

As if suspended DE Carlos Dunlap needed another reason not to drive drink, it's the one he'll learn standing on the sidelines watching Greg McElroy take advantage of the precious extra seconds he gains in the pocket to find Julio Jones on deep routes. Jones, a Freshman force who slipped off the radar for parts of this season, is peaking at just the right time.

But what about Tebow? I think he plays marvelous, but just like his scripted hero "jump pass" that fell incomplete last week in Gainesville, a career full of superlatives falls short just once. Everyone's human, after all.

3. DR. PEPPER BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, No. 3 TEXAS vs. No. 22 NEBRASKA, 8:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TEXAS by 17

Nebraska's surprisingly stout defense (4th in the nation in scoring defense) does a great job stopping the run. Texas, with their uber-effective passing offense, will sacrifice the run and settle for 400 yards passing and a trip to the title game.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TEXAS by 17

Move on folks, nothing to see here. To the extent it's been said at length, I won't make this entire blurb about how the Big Twelve North is a spineless aberration. I will say that we've seen the Longhorns struggle for the last time -- on Thanksgiving night against Texas A&M -- on their way into the clubhouse. Nebraska's interior line might give Colt McCoy a few close shaves, but that won't help the Huskers run or pass against a refreshingly unsinkable Big Twelve Defense.

5. DR. PEPPER ACC FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP, No. 10 GEORGIA TECH vs. CLEMSON, 8:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ESPN

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts GEORGIA TECH by 10

Vegas has no idea what's going to happen here, as these two teams played basically to a draw way back in September. We know Clemson is streaky, we know CJ Spiller is faster than God...but we don't know if the triple option can be slowed. Last time they played, GT rolled out a bunch of long runs early, Clemson adjusted and began stopping the pitch, GT adjusted to QB keepers on almost every play...And eventually the Jellow Yackets came away with a win. This is the 2nd best game of the weekend, no question.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts GEORGIA TECH by 10

There's a reason why this game is airing at 8:00 p.m. and not 3:30 p.m., and it has nothing to do with prominence. Both teams suffered humilitating losses last week to in-state underlings. Georgia Tech re-establishes its offensive cohesiveness, and sticks with what works: the run.

Week Thirteen BlogPoll Ballot Draft

T Kyle King — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 10:00:16 -0000

When compiling this week’s BlogPoll ballot, I paid no attention to last week’s top 25 (ergo, you should ignore the arrows) and I did not consult any other person’s or organization’s rankings, so the fault for what follows is mine and mine alone. I began by cobbling together a list of all BCS conference teams with records of 9-3 or better and all mid-major teams with records of 10-2 or better. This list came to twenty teams, so I went back and added in the six BCS conference clubs with 8-3 records. In so doing, I overlooked nine BCS conference teams and independents with 8-4 records, as well as five mid-majors with 9-3 records. I remain open to arguments in favor of any of these teams, but the first draft of my ballot reads as follows:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Florida
3	Texas
4	Cincinnati
5	Boise State	1
6	TCU	1
7	Oregon	2
8	Ohio State	2
9	Iowa	2
10	Georgia Tech	3
11	Virginia Tech	1
12	Pittsburgh	4
13	LSU	7
14	Miami (Florida)	1
15	Southern Cal	6
16	Oregon State
17	Penn State	4
18	Houston	4
19	Oklahoma State	4
20	West Virginia
21	California	2
22	Nebraska
23	Brigham Young
24	Wisconsin
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Clemson (#14), Mississippi (#17), North Carolina (#18), Stanford (#24), Temple (#25).

The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) have beaten eight Division I-A teams with winning records, including the 11th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3), the 13th-ranked LSU Tigers (9-3), and the Mississippi Rebels (8-4), yet the Tide’s only close calls have come in heated rivalry showdowns with the Tennessee Volunteers and the Auburn Tigers, both of which are 7-5.

The Florida Gators (12-0) have beaten seven Division I-A teams with winning records, but the Sunshine State Saurians’ best victory was over Louisiana State, which is the second-best victim ‘Bama has bested. The Texas Longhorns (12-0) have taken down only five opponents who are above .500 and their best win was over the 19th-ranked Oklahoma St. Cowboys (9-3). As we shall see, the Pokes’ credentials are somewhat suspect, so the ‘Horns are a decidedly shaky No. 3 in my view.

I awarded the No. 4 spot on my ballot to the Cincinnati Bearcats (11-0) due to the fact that Brian Kelly’s club has bested the 16th-ranked Oregon St. Beavers (8-3), the 20th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3), and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3). All told, six of Cincy’s Division I-A triumphs have come against teams with winning ledgers.

The Boise St. Broncos narrowly edged out the TCU Horned Frogs for the No. 5 ranking, but it was a close call because the two teams’ resumes are so similar. The two mid-major mammoths arrived at 12-0 by virtually identical routes, as both clubs have beaten one Division I-AA opponent at home (UC-Davis for Boise State and Texas State for Texas Christian), one 6-6 squad on the road (Hawaii for the Broncos and Wyoming for the Frogs), five teams with winning records, and five teams with losing records. Each has beaten a 1-11 team at home (BSU defeated Miami (Ohio) and TCU defeated New Mexico) and each has taken advantage of four opponents with four or fewer wins.

The Horned Frogs’ second- and third-best wins (over the Utah Utes and the Clemson Tigers) were superior to the Broncos’ second- and third-best wins (over the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Fresno St. Bulldogs), but Boise State’s triumph over the seventh-ranked Oregon Ducks (9-2) carries considerably more weight than Texas Christian’s victory over the 23rd-ranked BYU Cougars (10-2), so the Broncos sneaked by the Frogs . . . barely.

(I would add at this point that Texas and Texas Christian have beaten the same number of Division I-A teams with records above .500 and that the Longhorns’ triumvirate of wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Missouri clubs with a combined 25-11 record is comparable in quality to the Horned Frogs’ trio of triumphs over BYU, Utah, and Clemson outfits with a cumulative 27-9 ledger. Texas and TCU share only one opponent in common; the ‘Horns traveled to Laramie and beat the Wyoming Cowboys 41-10, whereas the Frogs traveled to Laramie and beat the Wyoming Cowboys 45-10. Texas allowed 13 points in a narrow win over the Oklahoma Sooners at a neutral site game played in Dallas, while Texas Christian went on the road and throttled a Brigham Young team that allowed 13 points in a narrow win over the Oklahoma Sooners at a neutral site game played in Arlington. There is a compelling case to be made for the proposition that the Longhorns are not the top team in the Lone Star State, or, at least, are not noticeably distinguishable from the other contender for that title.)

Oregon laid claim to the No. 7 ranking ahead of the Ohio St. Buckeyes (10-2) in spite of the fact that the Big Ten champions have the better collection of victories over winning teams: Ohio State beat Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Navy, while the Ducks defeated Southern California, California, Utah, and Arizona. The Buckeyes were dragged down by the fact that they lost to two teams, including the Purdue Boilermakers (5-7), that both were beaten by Oregon.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) landed one notch behind an Ohio State team to which they lost a close contest on the road. Iowa ended up ahead of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) not on the basis of wins, but of losses. In the victory column, the Hawkeyes and the Engineers are comparable. Both have ten wins; both claimed four of those victories by a touchdown or less; both beat one Division I-AA team and three Division I-A teams with winning records. On the whole, the Ramblin’ Wreck’s top three triumphs (over Virginia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina) arguably are better than Iowa’s (over Penn State, Wisconsin, and Arizona), but the Hawkeyes lost a couple of close ones to an 8-4 team at home and a 10-2 team on the road. The Golden Tornado lost a close one to a 7-5 team at home and a thumping to a 9-3 team on the road.

Wins over No. 14 Miami (Florida) and No. 22 Nebraska enabled the Gobblers to overcome three very respectable losses and claim the No. 11 ranking for VPI, while the Pittsburgh Panthers (9-2) staked an admittedly shaky claim to the No. 12 spot with victories over Rutgers, Navy, and South Florida. Both of Pitt’s losses came in close contests on the road, but the Panthers’ early-season setback to the N.C. State Wolfpack (5-7) gives me pause and I very well might be persuaded to drop Dave Wannstedt’s club.

The Bayou Bengals’ three best wins were over a trio of 7-5 teams (Georgia, Arkansas, and Auburn), but their losses to Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss are forgivable, so Louisiana State sneaked ahead of the Miami Hurricanes (9-3). A convincing win over Georgia Tech, a recent triumph over the South Florida Bulls (7-4), a previous victory over Oklahoma that acquired new luster in the Bedlam Battle, and a trio of losses to teams with at least eight wins apiece vaulted the ‘Canes ahead of the USC Trojans (8-3), who are hanging onto narrow victories against Ohio State and Oregon State while otherwise relying upon name recognition to make us forget about a stumble against the Washington Huskies (4-7) and blowout losses to Oregon and Stanford.

The Beavers ended up behind the Men of Troy thanks to the head-to-head result of the two teams’ Pac-10 meeting in Los Angeles, but wins over Cal and Stanford continue to keep Oregon State in contention. Despite boasting a 10-2 record, the Penn St. Nittany Lions deserved no better than a No. 17 ranking because Joe Paterno’s club has beaten the Northwestern Wildcats, the Temple Owls, and no other Division I-A teams above .500 while being beaten soundly by both Ohio State and Iowa.

I know lots of folks don’t think the Houston Cougars deserve to be ranked, but the Cougs are a refugee from a traditional Southern power conference and a division champion who got to 10-2 by beating a Division I-AA opponent, skating by four Division I-A foes by seven or fewer points, beating the Mississippi St. Bulldogs (5-7) in Starkville, and taking advantage of five teams with losing records. Houston sounds to me a lot like Georgia Tech, but, whereas an ACC division champion would finish fourth in the SEC East, a Conference USA division champion would finish in the top half of the Big 12 South, at least judging by the Cougars’ wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Those key non-league wins allowed Houston to overcome the problem of having lost on the road to the UTEP Miners (4-8).

For obvious reasons, the Cowboys remained one spot behind the Cougars, but a better set of losses (to Texas, Houston, and Oklahoma) allowed the Pokes to stay ahead of a West Virginia unit that fell to Cincinnati, South Florida, and Auburn before boosting its resume by beating Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.

The California Golden Bears (8-3) suffered their three setbacks to teams with eight or more victories each, but none of those losses came in close contests and Cal’s wins over the Stanford Cardinal (8-4) and the Arizona Wildcats (7-4) are the only bright spots in a resume weighed down by the presence of triumphs over Division I-AA Eastern Washington, the Washington St. Cougars (1-11), the Maryland Terrapins (2-10), and the Arizona St. Sun Devils (4-8), the latter of whom the Berkeley Bears barely beat.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) won the Big 12 North after tackling a non-conference slate straight out of the Sun Belt. The Big Red Machine beat Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, and Louisiana-Lafayette but defeated only one team all year with a ledger better than 7-5. The ‘Huskers came up short against the Iowa St. Cyclones (6-6) in an offensively moribund contest, so Nebraska clings to a No. 22 ranking while patiently awaiting its loss to Texas.

Brigham Young does not deserve to be ranked, but I had trouble finding another team to rank 23rd, so the spot went to a Cougar club that lost lopsided affairs to Texas Christian and the Florida St. Seminoles (6-6). Narrow wins over Utah and Oklahoma are about all BYU has to its credit, but those victories are better than the Wisconsin Badgers’ triumphs over Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Those are the only two teams over .500 to have fallen to Wiscy in the course of the Badgers’ 8-3 autumn.

The Central Michigan Chippewas (10-2) slipped into the No. 25 spot ahead of Rutgers because the State University of New Jersey beat a pair of Division I-AA teams and the Chips at least sneaked by the Michigan St. Spartans (6-6) on the road. Also, unlike the Scarlet Knights, they didn’t lose to the gender-neutral Syracuse Orange (4-8).

You should by all means feel free to offer constructive criticisms, heartfelt feedback, and thoughtful arguments for the inclusion or exclusion of particular teams. For what it’s worth, I watched the Ball State-Western Michigan game on Tuesday and the first half of the Texas-Texas A&M game on Thursday before devoting my Friday to flipping back and forth among and between the Cincinnati-Illinois, Alabama-Auburn, Colorado-Nebraska, Pitt-West Virginia, and Boise State-Nevada games. My Saturday was spent bouncing around between the Clemson-South Carolina, Mississippi-Mississippi State, Florida-Florida State, and Miami-South Florida games before I settled in for the Georgia-Georgia Tech game.

Go ‘Dawgs!