SB Nation - Houston Cougars

Don't Bet On It!: College Football Bowl Edition (Part IV)

T Kyle King — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 03:48:06 -0000

Bowl season has just gotten underway, and already I am off to an 0-1 start in my postseason picks. Surely, I shouldn’t even need to tell you at this point, but I will, anyway: Don’t Bet On It!

Here is the next round of bowl forecasts:

Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons v. Idaho Vandals (Dec. 30): Oh, you have to be kidding me! I’m diving headfirst back into bowl season, and you’re giving me Bowling Green versus Idaho on the blue field in Boise? For crying out loud, this is a game so lame even I may not watch it! If I declared a national bowl of disinterest, this would be it. Eenie meenie minie . . . Bowling Green. Moving right along now. . . .

Holiday Bowl: Arizona Wildcats v. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Dec. 30): There was some good thinking going on there. Here we have a bowl game with a long history of being one of the most exciting postseason tilts around, played in scenic San Diego, all of which adds up to one of the most watchable bowls on the slate, and some nimrod at Pacific Life decides to invite Mike Stoops and Bo Pelini, the two finalists for the AFCA’s Wayne Woodrow Hayes Memorial Trophy, which is awarded annually to the head coach voted most likely to blow a head gasket and completely flip out on the sideline. Watching this bowl game will be like watching a hockey game . . . you’ll just be hanging around waiting for the fight to start. The ‘Cats are happy to be there and the ‘Huskers are miffed about coming within one second of winning the Big 12, so I’m going with Arizona.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force Falcons v. Houston Cougars (Dec. 31): I’m glad the House Committee on Un-American Activities isn’t still in existence, because I’m afraid I might be investigated for picking against a service academy in the Armed Forces Bowl. Nevertheless, the Cougs have done what putative "BCS busters" did perennially prior to the Utah Utes’ breakthrough season in 2004, winning their marquee non-conference contests while stumbling against league foes in head-scratching losses. Inasmuch as this game qualifies as a marquee non-conference contest (and is being played in the Lone Star State), I’m thinking Houston should have no problem.

Sun Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners v. Stanford Cardinal (Dec. 31): If I’d told you four months ago that Oklahoma and Stanford would be meeting in a bowl game this season, you’d have told me either that I was crazy or that my prediction was a sign of the apocalypse. Well, you may want to have your Bible open to the Book of Revelation on New Year’s Eve, because I’m picking the Cardinal to win in spite of the numerical advantage the Sooners enjoy by virtue of having pluralized their mascot.

If my math is correct (and there’s a very good chance it isn’t), I’m halfway through the bowl season, so stick around for the ~~bowls you actually care about~~ rest of my prognostications, but, in the meantime, don’t forget my regular disclaimer: Don’t Bet On It!

Go ‘Dawgs!

Know Your Opponent: University of Central Florida

ibleedscarlet — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 00:49:36 -0000

More photos » by Nick de la Torre - AP

about 1 month ago: Central Florida running back Brynn Harvey (34) finds running room for a touchdown against the Rice defense in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Rice Stadium in Houston. (AP Photo/Houston Chronicle, Nick de la Torre)

Browse more photos »

On the eve of the St. Petersburg Bowl, we take a quick glimpse at Rutgers opponent:

Team Name: University of Central Florida Knights

Location: Orlanda, Florida

Notable NFL Alumni: Dante Culpepper, Brandon Marshall, Kevin Smith, Asante Samuel

Conference: Conference USA

How they got to the St. Petersburg Bowl:

9/5 W vs. Samford 28-24 9/12 L @ Southern Miss 26-19

9/19 W vs. Buffalo 23-17 9/26 L @ East Carolina 19-14

10/3 W vs. Memphis 32-14 10/17 L vs. Miami 27-7

10/24 W @ Rice 49-7 11/1 W vs. Marshall 21-20

11/7 L @ Texas 35-3 11/14 W vs. Houston 37-32

11/21 W vs. Tulane 49-0 11/28 @ W UAB 34-27

Final 2009 Record: 8-4

Best Win: Houston. Down 17-3 to the Top 15 Cougars, the Knights stormed back behind RB Brynn Harvey who ran for 139 yards and three touchdowns. The Knight defense was able to limit the big plays from Heisman candidate Case Keenum as the Knights were strong down the stretch winning 5 of their last 6.

Worst Loss: East Carolina. Though Central Florida lacks a true "bad" loss, the worst of the bunch had to be the one to the Pirates. East Carolina would eventually go on to win the division, but the way that the Knights turned the ball over made this loss tough to stomach. They turned the ball over 5 times, including 4 Brett Hodges interceptions and still had a chance to win at the end. If they can win that game, who knows where the Knights season goes from there.

Player to watch on offense: Rutgers should be able to stop the aerial attack of the Knights, especially since they lack a mobile quarterback. The load will be put on UCF RB Brynn Harvey who has rushed for over 1000 yards this season. More importantly, the Knights have not lost a game in which Harvey has rushed for over 100 yards. As Harvey goes, so will the Knights.

Player to watch on defense: DT Torrell Troup. Rutgers has struggled to move the ball on the ground all year, and things don't get much easier in this game. Central Florida ranks 4th nationally against the run, and Troup is a big reason for that eating up space inside and providing gaps for the other lineman and linebackers to clog. If UCF can stop the Scarlet Knights on the ground, it could be a long day for Rutgers.

The Skinny: Rutgers and UCF took a similar course to get here relying on tough defense to both reach 8-4 records. Central Florida has been scorching hot over the last 3 games on offense, averaging 40 points per game. Hopefully the layoff has cooled off the UCF offense, but for George O'Leary's team this game is huge. For the Knights to knock off a Big East foe would be a step in the right direction towards gaining momentum at a potential run at the Big East should they expand.

Poll

Who will win the St. Petersburg Bowl?

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

32 votes

UCF Knights

20 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

Fortune Teller: 2009 Bowl Predictions (Part 1)

Brian @ BCI — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:16:14 -0000

For the third straight year, we preview the upcoming college football postseason. Here are our picks for bowls 1-17, which takes you from the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque to El Paso, Texas for the Sun Bowl.

Leave your thoughts on any of the first 17 matchups below.

New Mexico (December 19)

Matchup: Fresno State (8-4) vs. Wyoming (6-6)
The Line: Fresno State -11.5

The Lead: Wyoming makes only its second trip to a bowl this decade while Fresno State makes its 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 years. Fresno State returns to New Mexico for the second straight year (losing to Colorado State 40-35 last year).

Brian Pick: Fresno State -11.5
Jeff Pick: Wyoming +11.5

St. Petersburg presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s (December 19)

Matchup: UCF (8-4) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
The Line: Rutgers -2.5

The Lead: Rutgers just making a bowl game game is no longer exciting for their players and fans who had higher hopes coming into this season than to finish 3-4 in the Big East. UCF meanwhile will be playing less than three hours from their campus and should be thrilled to be there.

Jeff Pick: UCF +2.5
Brian Pick: Rutgers -2.5

R + L Carrier New Orleans (December 20)

Matchup: Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee (9-3)
The Line: Southern Miss -3.5

The Lead: Southern Miss returns to the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight year. Last year, Southern Miss blocked a field goal in overtime to defeat Troy 30-27 in one of the more entertaining 2008 bowl games. Middle Tennessee State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 6 straight and reaching the 9 win plateau for the first time since joining Division I-A in 1999. Southern Miss has a perfect 3-0 record in the New Orleans Bowl.

Brian Pick: Southern Miss -3.5
Jeff Pick: Southern Miss -3.5

MAACO Las Vegas (December 22)

Matchup: Oregon State (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2)
The Line: Oregon State -2.5

The Lead: BYU was on top of the world after beating Oklahoma to start the season. Oregon State was on top of the college football world in the final Thursday night of the season when playing Oregon for the Pac-10 title. Things didn't work out as either team had hoped from those points on though and they both fell to the pre-Christmas Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon State has plenty to prove though as they attempt to beat BYU, TCU and Boise State in the next 11 months and serve as the non-BCS school killer.

Jeff Pick: Oregon State -2.5
Brian Pick: Oregon State -2.5

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia (December 23)

Matchup: Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)
The Line: California -3

The Lead: With BC losing to Vanderbilt last season, Utah now owns the longest active winning streak in bowl games, having won their last 8 games including last year’s Sugar Bowl over Alabama. Cal is riding a seven game streak for bowl apperances, the longest in school history.

Brian Pick: Utah +3
Jeff Pick: Utah +3

Sheraton Hawaii (December 24)

Matchup: Nevada (8-4) vs. SMU (7-5)
The Line: Nevada -15

The Lead: This game features a very good WAC team against a very good C-USA team but does that mean that they are actually good teams? It's tough to say. Neither team has a very impressive win this season and both seemed to lose all their games when they had opportunities to prove themselves. Will anyone watch the Christmas Eve game in Hawaii? Other than Brian?

Jeff Pick: SMU +15
Brian Pick: Nevada -15

Little Caesars (December 26)

Matchup: Marshall (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-4)
The Line: Ohio -2.5

The Lead: This game renews a rivalry game between the two schools located only 80 miles apart. Ohio and Marshall used to compete in the Battle for the Bell which is set to be renewed in 2010. Ohio leads the all-time series 29-17-6, however Marshall has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between the two geographic neighbors.

Brian Pick: Ohio -2.5
Jeff Pick: Ohio -2.5

Meineke Car Care (December 26)

Matchup: Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
The Line: Pittsburgh -3

The Lead: What a disappointing finish to the season for Pittsburgh. Pitt lost to their backyard brawl rival West Virginia before losing to Cincinnati in a de-facto Big East Championship game. The Panthers led the entire game against Cincinnati but could not finish so now instead of the Orange Bowl they get a trip to Charlotte to play North Carolina in a "road" bowl game. Good luck getting your team fired up for this one, Dave!

Jeff Pick: North Carolina +3
Brian Pick: Pittsburgh -3

Emerald (December 26)

Matchup: Boston College (8-4) vs. USC (8-4)
The Line: USC -9

The Lead: The 8-4 Eagles travel to San Francisco for the second time this decade to take on the 8-4 USC Trojans. This is the first time in seven years that USC hasn’t played in a BCS bowl game (5 Rose Bowls, 2 Orange Bowls). Good news for the Eagles is the last time Pete Carroll found himself in a non-BCS bowl game, the Trojans lost 10-6 to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. You don't think we would pick against BC now, do you?

Brian Pick: Boston College +9
Jeff Pick: Boston College +9

Gaylor Hotels Music City (December 27)

Matchup: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)
The Line: Clemson -7.5

The Lead: If Boston College's 2008 performance in the Music City Bowl is any indication of how Clemson might play this year after the disappointing ACC Championship Game, it's is going to be tough to watch for Tiger fans. But after losing to South Carolina, the ACC really doesn't need Clemson, or any of its top programs, to lose to mediocre SEC teams. Clemson ticket sales for the bowl have been soft but hopefully Dabo can rally this team to victory.

Jeff Pick: Kentucky +7.5
Brian Pick: Clemson -7.5

AdvoCare V100 Independence (December 28)

Matchup: Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)
The Line: Georgia -7

The Lead: Georgia wraps up an otherwise disappointing, up-and-down season in Shreveport, Louisiana. For every quality win for UGA, there seemed to be an equally puzzling loss this year. Defeat Arkansas, get crushed at Tennessee. Defeat Auburn, lose to Kentucky at home, come back and defeat in-state rival Georgia Tech. Texas A&M has had a similar up-and-down season, but seemingly backed into the postseason having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Brian Pick: Georgia -7
Jeff Pick: Georgia -7

EagleBank (December 29)

Matchup: UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)
The Line: UCLA -4

The Lead: UCLA had to wait to see the result of the Army-Navy game before getting officially invited to this bowl game. In the bowl's second season, I don't imagine that their will be much hype this year compared to last year's geographically favorable matchup of Wake Forest vs. Navy. Look for Temple to surprise some people and possibly knock off a BCS school in this one.

Jeff Pick: Temple +4
Brian Pick: Temple +4

Champs Sports (December 29)

Matchup: Miami (Fla.) (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)
The Line: Miami -3

The Lead: This year’s Champs Sports Bowl is a matchup of 9-3 ranked teams. Both teams are coming off strong finishes, each winning 4 of their final 5 games. Wisconsin finished the season with a 51-10 drubbing of Hawaii on the road, while Miami took care of USF 31-10. Miami is 2-0 all-time in the Champs Sports Bowl. Wisconsin played in Orlando last season, losing to Florida State 42-13. This is the last year the Big 10 will be represented in this bowl as the Big East will send a team to face an ACC opponent starting next season.

Brian Pick: Miami -3
Jeff Pick: Miami -3

Roady’s Humanitarian (December 30)

Matchup: Bowling Green (8-5) vs. Idaho (7-5)
The Line: Idaho +1.5

The Lead: Another game that might set an attendance record this season but not the kind of record that you want to be setting if you are putting this bowl together. Boise fans might already be on their way to the Fiesta Bowl so even getting a few locals to come out for this game will be difficult. Bowling Green has a pretty good WR, and Idaho plays home games in a dome. That's all I have for this one.

Jeff Pick: Bowling Green -1.5
Brian Pick: Idaho +1.5

Pacific Life Holiday (December 30)

Matchup: Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (9-4)
The Line: Arizona -1.5

The Lead: Arizona - having defeated the Trojans 21-17 to move to 6-3 in conference - will represent the Pac-10 as its #2 team in the Holiday Bowl. Nebraska won the Big 12 North, finishing the season at 9-4, 6-2 in conference. The Cornhuskers are coming off a heartbreaking 13-12 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Brian Pick: Arizona -1.5
Jeff Pick: Nebraska +1.5

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (December 31)

Matchup: Houston (10-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
The Line: Houston -4.5

The Lead: The mighty Houston Cougars who knocked off Oklahoma State at home are only 4.5 point favorites against Air Force? Oh right, we later found out that Oklahoma State was not nearly as good as anyone thought the would be and failed to make a push for a BCS bowl by nearly losing to Colorado and then getting destroyed by Oklahoma to end the season. Air Force had another nice season but only managed a 1-5 record against bowl bound teams this season.

Jeff Pick: Air Force +4.5
Brian Pick: Houston -4.5

Brut Sun (December 31)

Matchup: Oklahoma (7-5) vs. Stanford (8-4)
The Line: Oklahoma -8

The Lead: This should be an intriguing matchup between the unstoppable force (Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart and the 15th ranked Stanford Cardinal offense) and the immovable object (Oklahoma's 7th ranked defense). Oklahoma has had an otherwise disappointing season, that is, up until they put a 27-0 hurtin' on in-state rival Oklahoma State in Bedlam. Stanford may or may not be playing without the services of starting freshman quarterback Andrew Luck.

Brian Pick: Stanford +8
Jeff Pick: Oklahoma -8

Way Too Early College Football Top 25 for 2010

Jeremy Mauss — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:30:12 -0000

The bowl season is not even here yet and the only players to declare for the NFL are on non-bowl teams and most likely not on this list. National Champs has put together a top 25 list with another list of others to be considered for the 2010 season.

The biggest shocker is that Boise State is put second in their rankings while TCU comes in at sixth as the highest Mountain West team. That spot could be swapped depending who wins the Fiesta Bowl, but both of those schools return the majority of their offense. 2010 could be the year that a non-BCS school makes a n even closer run at that national title game appearance.

Neither Utah or BYU are on the list, which is understandable yet a little shocking as well. Utah returns their starting quarterback in Jordan Wynn, RB Eddie Wide, RB Sausan Shakerin, and possibly RB Matt Asiata if he wants to return. The Utes lose most of their receivers but they do have depth there, and they lose a few key offensive lineman. Defensively the Utes lose their top two big play defenders in DB Robert Johnson, LB Stevenson Sylvester, and DT Koa Misi. However the Utes, finally get to bring in the number one JUCO recruit in defensive end James Aiona to go along with the Kruger brothers.

BYU has a question mark if Harvey Unga goes pro, but they automatically lose QB Max Hall and TE Dennis Pitta which will hurt. The Cougars could be starting either true freshman Jake Heaps who is the number one quarterback recruit, or Riley Nelson who has not played significant snaps since his days as the starter at Utah State back in 2005.

Keep on reading to see who is on the very, very early top 25 list for 2010.

2010 Early Bird
Top 25 Preview
Click on each team for breakdown

1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. Oregon
4. Florida
5. Ohio State
6. TCU
7. Texas
8. Georgia Tech
9. Iowa
10. Miami FL
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Southern California
14. Cincinnati
15. North Carolina
16. Oklahoma
17. Oregon State
18. Virginia Tech
19. West Virginia
20. Houston
21. Louisiana State
22. Wisconsin
23. Georgia
24. Arkansas
25. Missouri

Others Receiving Consideration
depth charts included

Arizona
Auburn
Boston College
Brigham Young
California
Clemson
Connecticut
Florida State
Michigan
Mississippi
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
South Carolina
South Florida
Stanford
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
Utah

Poll

Will the winner of the Fiesta Bowl be ranked inside the top 3 in the pre season poll?

What Big 10 Expansion Could Mean For BYU

Layton — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:14:37 -0000

The Big 10 (really 11, but who's counting?) came out with word recently that they're seriously looking into expanding the league to 12 teams, even as soon as 2011. And while we think about the prospects, let me put a quick end to the excitement you're feeling on behalf of Bronco and Co.: BYU would not be invited to join that league, the Big 12 or the Pac-10 as a result of the Big 10 expanding. However, that doesn't mean the Cougars won't be seriously affected by what may happen after next season. Here's why 1) BYU won't be invited, and 2) why they may be feeling the brunt of such actions by the already big Big 10.

Before I examine the reasons of leaving BYU out, here's what the expected plan is: when the Big 10 (11) expands to 12, Missouri jumps ship and joins the Big 10, or Notre Dame flees its independent status and joins. The latter is less likely as Notre Dame enjoys being able to play anybody, at any time of the season, and not splitting any possible earnings. A "conference" schedule's not really their style.

As for BYU...

1. As an avid college football fan, and obvious BYU fan, I'd love nothing more than to see some of the Baylor's, Arkansas's, and Colorado's, be relegated to mid-major status, and have BYU (or other "worthy" teams) take their place much like what happens in England's Premier League (yes, that's a soccer reference). Without question there are few teams in the power conferences that should be demoted (Baylor, Colorado and Texas Tech, first and foremost).

Unfortunately, relegating these teams, or expanding conferences, doesn't open the door for BYU to join them; TCU and Utah? Perhaps, but not BYU. Though the Cougars have tradition, high-powered offenses and a national following, they're still the odd man out in these scenarios. Why? For starters, they can't compete on a national recruiting stage with Utah or TCU, not to mention Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio St., etc. I know they get the likes of Jake Heaps, Kyle Van Noy, Zac Stout and others, absolutely terrific talent, but they're more scheme players (maybe with the exception of Heaps) than superior athletes with speed and strength. As long as the program focuses their attention on players who will live by the Honor Code (which I whole-heartedly support and agree with), they will be left with mostly second-tier talent.

As for Utah and TCU...

TCU absolutely makes the most sense of joining a BCS conference when you consider recruiting demographic, geographic positioning and natural rivalries (Texas, Oklahoma, etc.). They've been one of the most consistent (and winning) teams over the last decade, and with this year's success, they're a very sexy pick to join. The only thing that may hold them back is a very fickle fan base and a terrible basketball program.

Next up, after TCU, would have to be Utah. With their success in 2004 and 2008, great recruiting channels, a known basketball program, and a very zealous fan base, they've got all the ingredients to make an impact and land the coveted spot. The only thing holding them back might be their lack of sustained success/history, and the fact they play in Utah (it's kinda out of the way...just sayin').

In any event, with either of those teams leaving the MWC, BYU suffers big time. All of the sudden the MWC becomes an average league at best. The best hope is to expand the MWC very, very soon by adding Boise St., Houston, Tulsa, Nevada, and Fresno St., and dump a couple cellar-dwellers, and then get an automatic BCS bid (by addition or elimination). If the MWC were to obtain such a bid, TCU, Utah nor BYU would have any inclination to leave the conference for greener pastures because they'd be feeding where the cows are fat and happy, and this whole argument becomes unimportant, much like the climate talks in Copenhagen.

Poll

What's the best scenario for BYU?

Making the Rounds: Mountain West Bowling Edition

Jeremy Mauss — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:00:22 -0000

New Mexico Bowl

Fresno State extends Coach Pat Hill's contract past 2010, but no details are released. Listen to a preview of this game by The Fresno Bee

Wyoming is excited to be the first bowl game of the season, because people will watch. Dave Christenson's motivation has paid off in the weight room.

Poinsettia Bowl

The Andy Ludwig bowl is really happening Ute fans. Utes will continue to use the momentum killer known as the Wild - whatever you want to call it on offense. A graph depicting the Cal 2009 football season.

Andy Ludwig interview:

Las Vegas Bowl

Oregon State was so close to going to the Rose Bowl. Las Vegas Bowl is 7th best among all bowl games. Building the Dam gives a first look of BYU. The Cougars are taking this game seriously.

Armed Forces Bowl

Houston will not have the distraction of having their head coach decline to take an interview Kevin Sumlin with Cincinatti for their head coaching job. This bowl game is the 12th rated bowl game by ESPN.

Fiesta Bowl

Boise State is one of the most injured teams in the country, and are looking for revenge after last years lost to TCU on the Poinsettia Bowl. Tickets to the Fiesta Bowl are a really hot item. DE Jerry Hughes wins another All-American award.

Does Big Ten expansion mean BCS for Utah?

JazzyUte — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:35:56 -0000

I'm sure you've heard by now the Big Ten is seriously looking at expansion down the road. It's not something that'll happen the second this season wraps up - hell, it probably won't happen by 2011, either. However, it's something we'll most likely see in the next decade (so, that's a ten-year window).

Now how does this impact Utah? Well directly, it doesn't. The Big Ten ain't expanding this far west. There is a slightly better chance Tiger Woods is declared a saint by the Catholic Church than the Utes ever playing a game in a conference a thousand miles from their campus.

But it does indirectly impact them. In fact, they face a greater impact than any non-BCS team because if either the Big 12 or Pac Ten were to ever expand, the Utes would be atop both lists. Now I'm not saying they would get an invite to either conference, but they would receive a longer look than say Colorado State or even Boise State.

So, let's assume at the end of the 2011 season, the Big Ten expands. Right now, it's unclear who they want. Obviously Notre Dame continues to see the brunt of their push, however, it's not just the Irish who are expansion candidates. Syracuse, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and even Nebraska - if you believe the link I posted above - appear to be logical choices.

Out of that, Notre Dame still seems the least likely because the Irish are very content with their situation. And they should be because they've got it made. They have their own TV deal. Their own path to the BCS. A national recruiting base and the most prestigious program name in all of sports (that includes the Dallas Cowboys, New York Yankees and Boston Celtics.

Let's say the Irish turn down any offer the Big Ten throws at them. This leaves Big 12 teams and Big East teams as potential newcomers to the conference.

This is where things begin to indirectly impact Utah.

Missouri and Iowa State are reasonable choices because they're Midwest schools. Iowa State is a natural rival with Iowa and Missouri is a natural rival with Illinois (they play yearly). Now it's a no-brainer that the Tigers offer a better all around program than the Cyclones. They're also the dominant program in the state - unlike ISU.

If it came down to these two Big 12 teams, the Big Ten is probably going with Missouri. If they accept, that opens the door to Big 12 expansion.

Now it gets a bit more interesting.

Firstly, there is Arkansas of the SEC. The Razorbacks' greatest history is tied back to the old Southwest Conference. If you're not familiar, a good bulk of the SWC makes up the current Big 12 South. That includes Texas, who at one point had one of the nation's largest rivalries with Arkansas. That's fizzled since the Razorbacks left the SWC in 1991 for the SEC.

But would they accept? Is Arkansas content in the SEC? I honestly don't know because I'm not an Arkansas fan. They could be. I mean, perception wise, the SEC is the nation's best conference. If you win in the SEC, you're almost guaranteed the most exposure. The Big 12, on the other hand, took a hit this season with the pathetically bad North and the collapse of Oklahoma.

Of course, football ebbs and flows. Five years ago, the SEC was so weak that its champion - an undefeated Auburn team - couldn't sniff the national championship game. Does anyone believe today an undefeated SEC team would be denied a shot at the championship? Probably not. However, it's possible had a Big Ten or Pac Ten team gone undefeated this year - an undefeated Big 12 team is left on the outside looking in.

Ultimately, from an outsiders perspective, the Big 12 is a better fit than the SEC for a program like Arkansas. I make this claim mostly because of their history with the old SWC and the fact they just haven't really been able to take it to the next level in the SEC. Granted, they've been close and maybe Bobby Petrino gets things turned around there and makes them not only an SEC power, but a nation power. Right now, though, it hasn't happened. Until it does, Arkansas will always seem more like the step-sister to that league than anything else.

That leaves the option for them to bolt to the Big 12. Let's say they do. How does this impact Utah? I mean, the conference still is stuck at twelve teams. No name change. No need for expansion, right?

Well...

The thing here is that if Arkansas goes to the Big 12, they're not going to be delegated to the North. It just isn't going to happen because they don't fit the geography of a North team. They are a South team and will play in the South. The problem here is that there is just one too many teams in the South now. It makes for uneven divisions and that can't happen.

This leaves the option open for expansion.

The Big 12 now needs a North team to replace Missouri, or Iowa State. Who gets the nod?

BYU: They were originally at the top of the list when the Big Eight turned to twelve teams back in the 90s. This, however, ended when Baylor took the last vacancy. The Cougars are still a very viable option and certainly would get a strong look by the conference.
TCU: They seem like the most natural and logical choice because they're in Texas. Except we're looking for a Big 12 North team and would TCU fit in the North even though they play in a state dominated by the South? Possibly. I'm sure they'd accept it. The problem here is that the Texas schools might not like the idea of opening the state even further to a local school. And if TCU gets the BCS nod, they automatically receive the cred it takes to grab big-time talent. Would Oklahoma, Nebraska and the Texas schools sign off on that? I'm not so sure. TCU also suffers from the fact it doesn't have a significant base of support within the Metroplex. They struggled this year to sellout their stadium, even though they had the greatest season in school history.
Utah: In the 90s, they weren't on the radar because the program hadn't evolved to the point it is today. They fit geographically and can spark up their rival with Colorado again. Up until the 60s, both these programs dominated the Rocky Mountain region in football and played nearly every season. Does it mean a rivalry can be cultivated from that? No. But it does suggest there is some history.

As you can see, there are some dominoes that need to fall to get Utah even on their radar. I'm not sure it happens that way and obviously there are other scenarios that could play out (Arkansas turning them down, meaning they can take Utah/BYU/TCU and keep the current league number at twelve or the Big Ten picking a current Big East program). But it's still a viable option.

The most likely scenario, though, is the Pac Ten option. Right now, the conference is content at ten teams. However, if the Big Ten jumps to 12 (remember, they're at 11 right now), does this force their hands? The expansion of the Big Ten would bring about a conference championship game and I think we can all agree they've played an important role for the SEC and Big 12.

If that happens, the Pac Ten and Big East will be the lone BCS conferences without a title game. Now I think the lack of a conference championship game has hindered the conference, but ultimately they've been able to get away with it because the Big Ten hasn't fallen into the trend, either. If they go, though, it might force the conference into conceding tradition and entering into the dreaded twelve-team league.

Which means they need two teams to fill the void. There is a very good chance Utah is either #1 or #2 on that list. If the Pac Ten does expand, I think we can call agree the Utes are the most likely of any team at any level in the nation to receive that first phone call.

But that's basing all of this on the current setup today. Utah is still riding its 2009 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and much can change over the course of the next few years. Maybe BYU and Boise State eclipse the Utes fully by 20XX and if that happens, it's possible - though I think unlikely - they become the Pac Ten's #1 and #2.

In the end, this is all speculation and relies on a ton of what ifs. But right now, it appears we're closer than ever to the possibility.

We'll see.

Ranking The 2009-2010 Bowls: Part 1

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:10:59 -0000

Everyone and their grandma has been ranking the bowls......Except for me. So I figured that I should jump in on all the fun, and talk about the 2nd season of College Football: "Bowl Season".

Now, I am in the camp of those who think there are just way too many bowl games. I'm not going to lie. It takes quite a bit to get me hyped up for a bowl game. To be honest, almost every year I set out to try and watch every bowl game, and every year I end up watching a handful of bowls, but mostly college basketball.

This year, I'm not making any promises like that, especially when it's quite possible I'll be going down to Tempe for the bowl game. At the same time, I will make the effort of watching a handful of games, and I figured I would share my process of elimination with you, by doing a countdown of bowl games that I am looking forward to most.

In Part 1 of this three part series, I'm going to countdown the 14 bowls that I find the least exciting. I'd characterize this group by saying that I could watch some of these games, but I'm certainly not rearranging my life to watch them. I can safely say that if I somehow did not watch a single game from this group, I wouldn't be too disappointed.

#34: New Orleans Bowl (Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State), 12/20/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

I have absolutley no reason to get excited about this game at all. I thought Southern Miss would be a better team than they were, but they ended up being just another 7-5 midmajor. If you're hardcore, on paper these teams look pretty even in regards to scoring. It could be a close game. Accuscore has Southern Miss as a 54% favorite. Whatifsports.com has Southern Miss, just edging the victory as well. Fortunatley for me, the Vikings play the Panthers on that Sunday night, so I will be watching that as well.

#33: New Mexico Bowl (Fresno State vs. Wyoming), 12/19/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

There have been years in the past, when I've flicked on the game, because it's the 1st one in the season, and it's been a bit of a novelty. Usually, I can't watch past the 1st quarter. This year, I will probably try and attempt the same thing, but will end up doing something else. Not a knock on Fresno State which is a decent team, but moreso on Wyoming. On paper, this has the makings of a blowout. With Fresno State, you have one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 436 yards/game and about 34 points scored. With Wyoming, you have one of the worst offenses, averaging 298 yards/game, and about 17 points scored.

#32: Little Caesar's Bowl (Marshall vs. Ohio), 12/26/2009, Noon CST, ESPN

What ranks this game here as opposed to last, is probably the fact that Marshall has a new head coach from the regular season now. Since there is a "craziness" possibility to this game, I may watch the first few series.

#31: Hawaii Bowl (Nevada vs. SMU), 12/24/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

The biggest thing this game has going for it, is that there is no College Basketball at all that night, no other College Football that night, and no NBA either. There is a Chargers vs. Titans game on the NFL Network, but that's it as far as sports go. People wanting their sports fix might be tuning into this one. Or maybe they will do something with their families on Christmas Eve (for those that celebrate it).

#30: GMAC Bowl (Central Michigan vs. Troy), 1/6/2010, 6pm CST, ESPN

This actually is a decent matchup among mid-majors. It really is. The biggest problem with this bowl is that it's sandwiched right between the Orange Bowl and the BCS Championship Game. I might watch some of it, as I wait for the Iowa State vs. Duke game, but that's about it.

#29: St. Petersburg Bowl (UCF vs. Rutgers), 12/19/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

I know Rutgers is 8-4, but they went 3-4 in the Big East. Also, this is practically a homegame for UCF. Just not a lot about this game to sell me on.

#28: EagleBank Bowl (UCLA vs. Temple), 12/29/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Can't say much about this one, other than I'm probably not going to watch it.

#27: International Bowl (South Florida vs. Northern Illinois), 1/2/2010, 11am CST, ESPN2

I don't think I've ever watched the International Bowl and this matchup isn't really changing the chances of that happening for me.

#26: Armed Forces Bowl (Houston vs. Air Force), 12/31/2009, 11am CST, ESPN

The thick of the CUSA schedule exposed Houston as a paper tiger, it could be a close game. It is an interesting matchup in Houston has the best pass offense in the nation, while Air Force has the best pass defense in the nation. There's not enough there for me to take an interest, especially if I'm in Tempe getting ready for the Insight Bowl.

#25: Alamo Bowl (Michigan State vs. Texas Tech), 1/2/2010, 8pm CST, ESPN

Michigan State is a disappointment this year. I think many thought they had an outside shot to compete for the Big 10, and instead they finish 6-6. To add insult to injury, they also suspended 8 guys and kicked 2 off the team for some off the field drama. There's no reason why Texas Tech shouldn't roll this team by 21.

#24: Meineke Car Care Bowl (Pitt vs. UNC), 12/26/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

On paper, Pitt should roll UNC. I just wonder how they will play coming off that disappointing loss to Cincy. It seems like when a team gets snubbed or loses a tough championship game like that, they don't come in ready to play.

UNC is just manic with their play. Some weeks they look great and beat Virginia Tech, while others they are losing to NC-State. Overall, I see the makings of a potentially sloppy game

#23: Humanitarian Bowl (Bowling Green vs. Idaho), 12/30/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Watch the weather forecast for this one. If it's a clear, calm day, it's going to be a shootout with my man Freddie Barnes tearing it up, and I'm going to want to watch it! If it's blizzard conditions, or just a day condusive to running the ball a lot, this bowl belongs in the #34-30 range.

#22: Music City Bowl (Kentucky vs. Clemson), 12/27/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

C.J. Spiller is the reason to watch this game. If you haven't seen him play before this would be a good spot to see him as I have a feeling he'll have a big game in this one. Kentucky has a bad rush defense. That said, I see this as a Clemson romp, so I'm not exactly expecting a good game from this one.

#21: Papajohns.com Bowl (South Carolina vs. UConn), 1/2/2010, 1pm CST, ESPN

South Carolina really perplexes me. Spurrier is supposed to be this offensive genius, but South Carolina seems to have had sucky offenses since he took over. I'm rooting for UConn in this one. With everything they've gone through this season, how nice would it be to see the Huskies get a bowl victory?

In Part 2 of this series, I will count down the next tier of bowl games in terms of what I'm looking forward to. Look for that on Tuesday. In the meantime, feel free to join in on the conversation.

3rd Annual Rock M Nation Bowl Pick 'Em Contest

The Beef — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:00:18 -0000

UPDATE: BUMPED BACK TO THE TOP OF THE PAGE. PICKS ARE DUE AT NOON TOMORROW.

That's right loyal readers...the Bowl Pick 'Em Contest is back for its third season.

It is simple to participate. Simply reply to this thread with your picks. You will need to pick both against the spread, as well as the over/under, so you will have two picks per game. The spreads are LOCKED, so a movement in the line will not be taken into account. The spreads are courtesy of bookmaker.com because...well...that's the one I could find (and unless otherwise noted) They also represent where the lines were when they opened, which was a week ago (had to wait for Army/Navy to be played to determine Eagle Bowl and Texas Bowl line)

Our winner from last year is FSUncensored, who went 39-27 to win by three games over The Cool Alonzo and myself. All time, MU 1839 (our first winner) holds the best two-year record at 18 games over .500 (74-56). Of the "couples" category, The Beef and Tailgate Queen came out 3 game ahead of Bill C and Bill C's wife last year, tying their annual battle at 1-1. Overall, the contest generated a won-loss record of 1066-1244 for a not so good percentage of .461. Over the two years, we currently sit at 1711-1879 for a winning percentage of .477. Yes...I've kept track.

Picks are due by noon on Saturday, December 19th (since the first games are later that evening). Picks are lined up after the jump.

As for prizes...1st prize will get you the Rock M Nation T-shirt of your choice, unless RPT (who somehow is the keeper of the purse strings around here) decides we want to pony up some additional swag.

Anyway, we had a good time with this last year with 35 participants (up from 20 the first year) and somehow I am thinking we are going to have a FEW more than that :-) Come one, come all (and that certainly includes non-Rock M regulars...anyone from SB Nation is welcome to participate)...make me work hard at this. If you were here last season and have changed names, just let me know and I will do my best to give you your two or three-season score when all is said and done as well. I will also be adding a couple set of special picks. We will have the "coin-flip" picks, where each pick will be decided by heads or tails. I will also compile the "Consensus" picks, which will be the most popular pick on each game, to see how RMN did as a community (in the majority at least).

New Mexico

Fresno State -10 1/2 vs. Wyoming

Over/Under - 55 1/2

St. Petersburg

Rutgers -2 vs. UCF

Over/Under - 44 1/2

New Orleans

Sothern Miss -3 1/2 vs. Mid Tenn St.

Over/Under - 59

Las Vegas

Oregon State - 1 1/2 vs. BYU

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Poinsetta

Cal -3 vs. Utah

Over/Under - 53 1/2

Hawaii

Nevada -14 vs. SMU

Over/Under - 73 1/2

Little Caesers

Ohio -2 vs. Marshall

Over/Under - 50

Meineke

Pitt -3 vs. UNC

Over/Under - 44 1/2

Emerald

USC -9 vs. BC

Over/Under - 45 1/2

Music City

Clemson -7 vs. Kentucky

Over/Under - 52 1/2

Independence

Georgia -7 vs. Texas A&M

Over/Under - 64

Eagle Bank (LSVC odds)

UCLA -4 vs. Temple

Over/Under - 46 1/2

Champs Sports

Miami (FL) -3 vs. Wisconsin

Over/Under - 56

Humanitarian

Bowling Green PK vs. Idaho

Over/Under - 68 1/2

Holiday

Arizona -1 vs. Nebraska

Over/Under - 41

Armed Forces

Houston -5 vs. Air Force

Over/Under - 61

Sun

Oklahoma -9 1/2 vs. Stanford

Over/Under - 56 1/2

Texas (LVSC odds)

Mizzou -6 vs. Navy

Over/Under - 54

Insight

Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa State

Over/Under - 48

Chick-Fil-A

Va Tech -4 1/2 vs. Tenn

Over/Under - 50 1/2

Outback

Auburn -8 vs. Northwestern

Over/Under - 54 1/2

Gator

West Virginia -2 1/2 vs. Florida St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Capital One

Penn State -3 vs. LSU

Over/Under - 44

Rose

Oregon -3 1/2 vs. Ohio State

Over/Under - 51 1/2

Sugar

Florida -10 vs. Cincy

Over/Under - 55 1/2

International

South Fla. -6 1/2 vs. No. Illinois

Over/Under - 50

PapaJohns

South Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UCONN

Over/Under - 53

Cotton

Ole Miss -3 vs. Okie State

Over/Under -  50 1/2

Liberty

Arkansas -7 1/2 vs. East Carolina

Over/Under - 63 1/2

Alamo

Texas Tech -7 vs. Michigan St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Fiesta

TCU -7 vs. Boise St

Over/Under - 54

Orange

Ga Tech -4 vs. Iowa

Over/Under - 51

GMAC

Central Mich -4 vs. Troy

Over/Under - 64

BCS Champ

Alabama -5 1/2 vs. Texas

Over/Under - 45

Armed Forces Bowl - A Look at the Numbers

bhsmarine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:46:45 -0000

Next Game

Houston Cougars
@ Air Force Falcons

Thursday, Dec 31, 2009, 9:00 AM PST
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

Complete Coverage >

Air Force and Houston are facing off in the Armed Forces Bowl on New Years Eve. Lets take a quick look at how the teams stack up against each other. The bold numbers denote that team is ranked higher in that certain category. Stats after the jump...

Catagory	Air Force	Houston
Scoring Offense (PPG)	#53 - 28.3	#2 - 43.9
Rushing Offense (Yards)	#4 - 273.6	#81 -134
Passing Offense (Yards)	#118 - 82.3	#1 - 447
Total Offense (Yards)	#77 - 355.9	#1 - 581.1
Turnover Margin (TO per G)	#3 - 1.42	#19 - .62
Penalties (Yards per G)	#26 - 44.6	#7 - 40.5
3rd Down Conversions	#29 - 43.5%	#3 - 51.9%
Red Zone Conversions	#63 - 81.6%	#20 - 86.4%
Time of Possession	#19 - 31:44	#112 - 27:22
Total Defense (Yards)	#10 - 284.8	#108 - 442.7
Opponent 3rd Down Conv.	#7 - 30.3%	#89 - 41.9%
Sacks (Per Game)	#58 - 1.92	#76 -1.69

It looks to be a battle of run vs. pass and who can impose their tempo on the other team. In these 12 categories the teams match off an even 6-6 with Houston taking most the offensive categories and Air Force the defensive ones. In a quick bit of analysis I would say whoever imposes their tempo in this game wins. There will be a full write up as the game gets closer.