SB Nation - Nevada Wolf Pack

Fortune Teller: 2009 Bowl Predictions (Part 1)

Brian @ BCI — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:16:14 -0000

For the third straight year, we preview the upcoming college football postseason. Here are our picks for bowls 1-17, which takes you from the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque to El Paso, Texas for the Sun Bowl.

Leave your thoughts on any of the first 17 matchups below.

New Mexico (December 19)

Matchup: Fresno State (8-4) vs. Wyoming (6-6)
The Line: Fresno State -11.5

The Lead: Wyoming makes only its second trip to a bowl this decade while Fresno State makes its 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 years. Fresno State returns to New Mexico for the second straight year (losing to Colorado State 40-35 last year).

Brian Pick: Fresno State -11.5
Jeff Pick: Wyoming +11.5

St. Petersburg presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s (December 19)

Matchup: UCF (8-4) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
The Line: Rutgers -2.5

The Lead: Rutgers just making a bowl game game is no longer exciting for their players and fans who had higher hopes coming into this season than to finish 3-4 in the Big East. UCF meanwhile will be playing less than three hours from their campus and should be thrilled to be there.

Jeff Pick: UCF +2.5
Brian Pick: Rutgers -2.5

R + L Carrier New Orleans (December 20)

Matchup: Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee (9-3)
The Line: Southern Miss -3.5

The Lead: Southern Miss returns to the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight year. Last year, Southern Miss blocked a field goal in overtime to defeat Troy 30-27 in one of the more entertaining 2008 bowl games. Middle Tennessee State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 6 straight and reaching the 9 win plateau for the first time since joining Division I-A in 1999. Southern Miss has a perfect 3-0 record in the New Orleans Bowl.

Brian Pick: Southern Miss -3.5
Jeff Pick: Southern Miss -3.5

MAACO Las Vegas (December 22)

Matchup: Oregon State (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2)
The Line: Oregon State -2.5

The Lead: BYU was on top of the world after beating Oklahoma to start the season. Oregon State was on top of the college football world in the final Thursday night of the season when playing Oregon for the Pac-10 title. Things didn't work out as either team had hoped from those points on though and they both fell to the pre-Christmas Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon State has plenty to prove though as they attempt to beat BYU, TCU and Boise State in the next 11 months and serve as the non-BCS school killer.

Jeff Pick: Oregon State -2.5
Brian Pick: Oregon State -2.5

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia (December 23)

Matchup: Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)
The Line: California -3

The Lead: With BC losing to Vanderbilt last season, Utah now owns the longest active winning streak in bowl games, having won their last 8 games including last year’s Sugar Bowl over Alabama. Cal is riding a seven game streak for bowl apperances, the longest in school history.

Brian Pick: Utah +3
Jeff Pick: Utah +3

Sheraton Hawaii (December 24)

Matchup: Nevada (8-4) vs. SMU (7-5)
The Line: Nevada -15

The Lead: This game features a very good WAC team against a very good C-USA team but does that mean that they are actually good teams? It's tough to say. Neither team has a very impressive win this season and both seemed to lose all their games when they had opportunities to prove themselves. Will anyone watch the Christmas Eve game in Hawaii? Other than Brian?

Jeff Pick: SMU +15
Brian Pick: Nevada -15

Little Caesars (December 26)

Matchup: Marshall (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-4)
The Line: Ohio -2.5

The Lead: This game renews a rivalry game between the two schools located only 80 miles apart. Ohio and Marshall used to compete in the Battle for the Bell which is set to be renewed in 2010. Ohio leads the all-time series 29-17-6, however Marshall has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between the two geographic neighbors.

Brian Pick: Ohio -2.5
Jeff Pick: Ohio -2.5

Meineke Car Care (December 26)

Matchup: Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
The Line: Pittsburgh -3

The Lead: What a disappointing finish to the season for Pittsburgh. Pitt lost to their backyard brawl rival West Virginia before losing to Cincinnati in a de-facto Big East Championship game. The Panthers led the entire game against Cincinnati but could not finish so now instead of the Orange Bowl they get a trip to Charlotte to play North Carolina in a "road" bowl game. Good luck getting your team fired up for this one, Dave!

Jeff Pick: North Carolina +3
Brian Pick: Pittsburgh -3

Emerald (December 26)

Matchup: Boston College (8-4) vs. USC (8-4)
The Line: USC -9

The Lead: The 8-4 Eagles travel to San Francisco for the second time this decade to take on the 8-4 USC Trojans. This is the first time in seven years that USC hasn’t played in a BCS bowl game (5 Rose Bowls, 2 Orange Bowls). Good news for the Eagles is the last time Pete Carroll found himself in a non-BCS bowl game, the Trojans lost 10-6 to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. You don't think we would pick against BC now, do you?

Brian Pick: Boston College +9
Jeff Pick: Boston College +9

Gaylor Hotels Music City (December 27)

Matchup: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)
The Line: Clemson -7.5

The Lead: If Boston College's 2008 performance in the Music City Bowl is any indication of how Clemson might play this year after the disappointing ACC Championship Game, it's is going to be tough to watch for Tiger fans. But after losing to South Carolina, the ACC really doesn't need Clemson, or any of its top programs, to lose to mediocre SEC teams. Clemson ticket sales for the bowl have been soft but hopefully Dabo can rally this team to victory.

Jeff Pick: Kentucky +7.5
Brian Pick: Clemson -7.5

AdvoCare V100 Independence (December 28)

Matchup: Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)
The Line: Georgia -7

The Lead: Georgia wraps up an otherwise disappointing, up-and-down season in Shreveport, Louisiana. For every quality win for UGA, there seemed to be an equally puzzling loss this year. Defeat Arkansas, get crushed at Tennessee. Defeat Auburn, lose to Kentucky at home, come back and defeat in-state rival Georgia Tech. Texas A&M has had a similar up-and-down season, but seemingly backed into the postseason having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Brian Pick: Georgia -7
Jeff Pick: Georgia -7

EagleBank (December 29)

Matchup: UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)
The Line: UCLA -4

The Lead: UCLA had to wait to see the result of the Army-Navy game before getting officially invited to this bowl game. In the bowl's second season, I don't imagine that their will be much hype this year compared to last year's geographically favorable matchup of Wake Forest vs. Navy. Look for Temple to surprise some people and possibly knock off a BCS school in this one.

Jeff Pick: Temple +4
Brian Pick: Temple +4

Champs Sports (December 29)

Matchup: Miami (Fla.) (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)
The Line: Miami -3

The Lead: This year’s Champs Sports Bowl is a matchup of 9-3 ranked teams. Both teams are coming off strong finishes, each winning 4 of their final 5 games. Wisconsin finished the season with a 51-10 drubbing of Hawaii on the road, while Miami took care of USF 31-10. Miami is 2-0 all-time in the Champs Sports Bowl. Wisconsin played in Orlando last season, losing to Florida State 42-13. This is the last year the Big 10 will be represented in this bowl as the Big East will send a team to face an ACC opponent starting next season.

Brian Pick: Miami -3
Jeff Pick: Miami -3

Roady’s Humanitarian (December 30)

Matchup: Bowling Green (8-5) vs. Idaho (7-5)
The Line: Idaho +1.5

The Lead: Another game that might set an attendance record this season but not the kind of record that you want to be setting if you are putting this bowl together. Boise fans might already be on their way to the Fiesta Bowl so even getting a few locals to come out for this game will be difficult. Bowling Green has a pretty good WR, and Idaho plays home games in a dome. That's all I have for this one.

Jeff Pick: Bowling Green -1.5
Brian Pick: Idaho +1.5

Pacific Life Holiday (December 30)

Matchup: Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (9-4)
The Line: Arizona -1.5

The Lead: Arizona - having defeated the Trojans 21-17 to move to 6-3 in conference - will represent the Pac-10 as its #2 team in the Holiday Bowl. Nebraska won the Big 12 North, finishing the season at 9-4, 6-2 in conference. The Cornhuskers are coming off a heartbreaking 13-12 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Brian Pick: Arizona -1.5
Jeff Pick: Nebraska +1.5

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (December 31)

Matchup: Houston (10-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
The Line: Houston -4.5

The Lead: The mighty Houston Cougars who knocked off Oklahoma State at home are only 4.5 point favorites against Air Force? Oh right, we later found out that Oklahoma State was not nearly as good as anyone thought the would be and failed to make a push for a BCS bowl by nearly losing to Colorado and then getting destroyed by Oklahoma to end the season. Air Force had another nice season but only managed a 1-5 record against bowl bound teams this season.

Jeff Pick: Air Force +4.5
Brian Pick: Houston -4.5

Brut Sun (December 31)

Matchup: Oklahoma (7-5) vs. Stanford (8-4)
The Line: Oklahoma -8

The Lead: This should be an intriguing matchup between the unstoppable force (Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart and the 15th ranked Stanford Cardinal offense) and the immovable object (Oklahoma's 7th ranked defense). Oklahoma has had an otherwise disappointing season, that is, up until they put a 27-0 hurtin' on in-state rival Oklahoma State in Bedlam. Stanford may or may not be playing without the services of starting freshman quarterback Andrew Luck.

Brian Pick: Stanford +8
Jeff Pick: Oklahoma -8

Don't Bet On It!: College Football Bowl Edition (Part II)

T Kyle King — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 02:18:41 -0000

I made it through the ~~Sin City~~ Las Vegas Bowl in my last round of picks, so it’s time to rejoin the postseason schedule on the eve of Christmas Eve and run down my next four bowl predictions. As always, my ordinary mantra applies: Don’t Bet On It!

These are the next games on the slate in need of forecasting:

Poinsettia Bowl: California Golden Bears v. Utah Utes (Dec. 23): In the five years prior to this one, even those of us on the East Coast who aren’t entirely convinced that Versus is an actual channel have become accustomed to thinking of Utah as a top-flight college program bordering on perennial elite status. While this perception isn’t necessarily mistaken, it also isn’t applicable to 2009. This year, the Utes have gone 9-3, which sounds pretty good until you consider the fact that their three losses were to teams that together have gone 32-4 and their nine wins came against opponents with collective ledgers of 34-72. In short, Utah hasn’t beaten anyone who’s any good and Cal is a top 20 team. With apologies to the Superfans, I’m going with da Bears. (What if da Bears were midgets? Then it would be a much closer game . . . say, Bears 63, Utes 12. What about Tedford? Is he regular-sized? ‘Cause I assumed it was a mini-Tedford.)

Hawaii Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack v. SMU Mustangs (Dec. 24): I’m not entirely convinced of this, but I’m fairly sure these two used to be in the same conference together at some point, maybe during one of the WAC’s wilder 36-team incarnations. Also, I find it a bit ironic that the student-athletes of Southern Methodist University, which is only now recovering from becoming the first program to be given the death penalty by the NCAA a quarter-century ago, are going up against the student-athletes of the University of Nevada at Reno, a program located in the quickie divorce capital of the world . . . so, basically, these two teams represent opposite ends of the spectrum where the consequences of cheating are concerned. I’m a Georgia fan, so you’ll have to excuse me if I’m a bit skeptical about June Jones’s ability to get his team to step up in a bowl game. I’m taking Nevada to get the better of the last living adherent of the run and shoot in what is apt to be a rocky homecoming.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd v. Ohio Bobcats (Dec. 26): All right, I’m absolutely certain that this used to be a conference game, back when this postseason tilt was the Motor City Bowl and wasn’t sponsored by the latest pizza company to get in on the act. I make a habit of making unmerciful fun of Ohio (Ohio), but, when the Bobcats are going up against a team that fired its head coach and is difficult to identify as a bowl team, I’ll side with Ohio to beat Marshall.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels v. Pittsburgh Panthers (Dec. 26): A criminal defense attorney of my longstanding acquaintance has what he calls his "Joyce Kilmer defense" whenever a client of his is charged with manufacture of a controlled substance with respect to marijuana. His argument is that, while a guy running a meth lab is engaged in the manufacture of an illegal drug, a guy who’s growing pot plants isn’t "manufacturing" anything, because "only God can make a tree." Anyone who appreciates the distinction between a Hamiltonian affinity for manufacturing and a Jeffersonian devotion to agrarianism (as exemplified in the prose of the Vanderbilt Fugitives, the poetry of Wendell Berry, and the film "The Dukes of Hazzard") recognizes that he is right, which brings me to the distinction between legitimate and illegitimate bowl games. Bowls named after plants (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton) or after animals that are raised on a farm (Chick-fil-A) are good bowl games. (Admittedly, the aforementioned Poinsettia Bowl undermines this argument.) The Meineke Car Care Bowl generally is a clear example of the fact that bowls named after factory-produced goods or the retailers who sell them tend to be crummy contests. That said, a showdown between Pitt and UNC should make for a better game than most, and I have learned my lesson. Siding with Dave Wannstedt in a meaningful game is like getting involved in a land war in Asia; it’s one of the classic blunders. Accordingly, I’m picking the Tar Heels. After all, we are dealing with tobacco-growing Southern agrarians doing battle with steel-welding Eastern industrialists.

In case you’re keeping track at home, that’s eight games down and 73 26 to go, so stick around for the rest of the Dawg Sports bowl picks, and, in the meantime, remember . . . Don’t Bet On It!

Go ‘Dawgs!

Ranking The 2009-2010 Bowls: Part 1

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:10:59 -0000

Everyone and their grandma has been ranking the bowls......Except for me. So I figured that I should jump in on all the fun, and talk about the 2nd season of College Football: "Bowl Season".

Now, I am in the camp of those who think there are just way too many bowl games. I'm not going to lie. It takes quite a bit to get me hyped up for a bowl game. To be honest, almost every year I set out to try and watch every bowl game, and every year I end up watching a handful of bowls, but mostly college basketball.

This year, I'm not making any promises like that, especially when it's quite possible I'll be going down to Tempe for the bowl game. At the same time, I will make the effort of watching a handful of games, and I figured I would share my process of elimination with you, by doing a countdown of bowl games that I am looking forward to most.

In Part 1 of this three part series, I'm going to countdown the 14 bowls that I find the least exciting. I'd characterize this group by saying that I could watch some of these games, but I'm certainly not rearranging my life to watch them. I can safely say that if I somehow did not watch a single game from this group, I wouldn't be too disappointed.

#34: New Orleans Bowl (Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State), 12/20/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

I have absolutley no reason to get excited about this game at all. I thought Southern Miss would be a better team than they were, but they ended up being just another 7-5 midmajor. If you're hardcore, on paper these teams look pretty even in regards to scoring. It could be a close game. Accuscore has Southern Miss as a 54% favorite. Whatifsports.com has Southern Miss, just edging the victory as well. Fortunatley for me, the Vikings play the Panthers on that Sunday night, so I will be watching that as well.

#33: New Mexico Bowl (Fresno State vs. Wyoming), 12/19/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

There have been years in the past, when I've flicked on the game, because it's the 1st one in the season, and it's been a bit of a novelty. Usually, I can't watch past the 1st quarter. This year, I will probably try and attempt the same thing, but will end up doing something else. Not a knock on Fresno State which is a decent team, but moreso on Wyoming. On paper, this has the makings of a blowout. With Fresno State, you have one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 436 yards/game and about 34 points scored. With Wyoming, you have one of the worst offenses, averaging 298 yards/game, and about 17 points scored.

#32: Little Caesar's Bowl (Marshall vs. Ohio), 12/26/2009, Noon CST, ESPN

What ranks this game here as opposed to last, is probably the fact that Marshall has a new head coach from the regular season now. Since there is a "craziness" possibility to this game, I may watch the first few series.

#31: Hawaii Bowl (Nevada vs. SMU), 12/24/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

The biggest thing this game has going for it, is that there is no College Basketball at all that night, no other College Football that night, and no NBA either. There is a Chargers vs. Titans game on the NFL Network, but that's it as far as sports go. People wanting their sports fix might be tuning into this one. Or maybe they will do something with their families on Christmas Eve (for those that celebrate it).

#30: GMAC Bowl (Central Michigan vs. Troy), 1/6/2010, 6pm CST, ESPN

This actually is a decent matchup among mid-majors. It really is. The biggest problem with this bowl is that it's sandwiched right between the Orange Bowl and the BCS Championship Game. I might watch some of it, as I wait for the Iowa State vs. Duke game, but that's about it.

#29: St. Petersburg Bowl (UCF vs. Rutgers), 12/19/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

I know Rutgers is 8-4, but they went 3-4 in the Big East. Also, this is practically a homegame for UCF. Just not a lot about this game to sell me on.

#28: EagleBank Bowl (UCLA vs. Temple), 12/29/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Can't say much about this one, other than I'm probably not going to watch it.

#27: International Bowl (South Florida vs. Northern Illinois), 1/2/2010, 11am CST, ESPN2

I don't think I've ever watched the International Bowl and this matchup isn't really changing the chances of that happening for me.

#26: Armed Forces Bowl (Houston vs. Air Force), 12/31/2009, 11am CST, ESPN

The thick of the CUSA schedule exposed Houston as a paper tiger, it could be a close game. It is an interesting matchup in Houston has the best pass offense in the nation, while Air Force has the best pass defense in the nation. There's not enough there for me to take an interest, especially if I'm in Tempe getting ready for the Insight Bowl.

#25: Alamo Bowl (Michigan State vs. Texas Tech), 1/2/2010, 8pm CST, ESPN

Michigan State is a disappointment this year. I think many thought they had an outside shot to compete for the Big 10, and instead they finish 6-6. To add insult to injury, they also suspended 8 guys and kicked 2 off the team for some off the field drama. There's no reason why Texas Tech shouldn't roll this team by 21.

#24: Meineke Car Care Bowl (Pitt vs. UNC), 12/26/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

On paper, Pitt should roll UNC. I just wonder how they will play coming off that disappointing loss to Cincy. It seems like when a team gets snubbed or loses a tough championship game like that, they don't come in ready to play.

UNC is just manic with their play. Some weeks they look great and beat Virginia Tech, while others they are losing to NC-State. Overall, I see the makings of a potentially sloppy game

#23: Humanitarian Bowl (Bowling Green vs. Idaho), 12/30/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Watch the weather forecast for this one. If it's a clear, calm day, it's going to be a shootout with my man Freddie Barnes tearing it up, and I'm going to want to watch it! If it's blizzard conditions, or just a day condusive to running the ball a lot, this bowl belongs in the #34-30 range.

#22: Music City Bowl (Kentucky vs. Clemson), 12/27/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

C.J. Spiller is the reason to watch this game. If you haven't seen him play before this would be a good spot to see him as I have a feeling he'll have a big game in this one. Kentucky has a bad rush defense. That said, I see this as a Clemson romp, so I'm not exactly expecting a good game from this one.

#21: Papajohns.com Bowl (South Carolina vs. UConn), 1/2/2010, 1pm CST, ESPN

South Carolina really perplexes me. Spurrier is supposed to be this offensive genius, but South Carolina seems to have had sucky offenses since he took over. I'm rooting for UConn in this one. With everything they've gone through this season, how nice would it be to see the Huskies get a bowl victory?

In Part 2 of this series, I will count down the next tier of bowl games in terms of what I'm looking forward to. Look for that on Tuesday. In the meantime, feel free to join in on the conversation.

3rd Annual Rock M Nation Bowl Pick 'Em Contest

The Beef — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:00:18 -0000

UPDATE: BUMPED BACK TO THE TOP OF THE PAGE. PICKS ARE DUE AT NOON TOMORROW.

That's right loyal readers...the Bowl Pick 'Em Contest is back for its third season.

It is simple to participate. Simply reply to this thread with your picks. You will need to pick both against the spread, as well as the over/under, so you will have two picks per game. The spreads are LOCKED, so a movement in the line will not be taken into account. The spreads are courtesy of bookmaker.com because...well...that's the one I could find (and unless otherwise noted) They also represent where the lines were when they opened, which was a week ago (had to wait for Army/Navy to be played to determine Eagle Bowl and Texas Bowl line)

Our winner from last year is FSUncensored, who went 39-27 to win by three games over The Cool Alonzo and myself. All time, MU 1839 (our first winner) holds the best two-year record at 18 games over .500 (74-56). Of the "couples" category, The Beef and Tailgate Queen came out 3 game ahead of Bill C and Bill C's wife last year, tying their annual battle at 1-1. Overall, the contest generated a won-loss record of 1066-1244 for a not so good percentage of .461. Over the two years, we currently sit at 1711-1879 for a winning percentage of .477. Yes...I've kept track.

Picks are due by noon on Saturday, December 19th (since the first games are later that evening). Picks are lined up after the jump.

As for prizes...1st prize will get you the Rock M Nation T-shirt of your choice, unless RPT (who somehow is the keeper of the purse strings around here) decides we want to pony up some additional swag.

Anyway, we had a good time with this last year with 35 participants (up from 20 the first year) and somehow I am thinking we are going to have a FEW more than that :-) Come one, come all (and that certainly includes non-Rock M regulars...anyone from SB Nation is welcome to participate)...make me work hard at this. If you were here last season and have changed names, just let me know and I will do my best to give you your two or three-season score when all is said and done as well. I will also be adding a couple set of special picks. We will have the "coin-flip" picks, where each pick will be decided by heads or tails. I will also compile the "Consensus" picks, which will be the most popular pick on each game, to see how RMN did as a community (in the majority at least).

New Mexico

Fresno State -10 1/2 vs. Wyoming

Over/Under - 55 1/2

St. Petersburg

Rutgers -2 vs. UCF

Over/Under - 44 1/2

New Orleans

Sothern Miss -3 1/2 vs. Mid Tenn St.

Over/Under - 59

Las Vegas

Oregon State - 1 1/2 vs. BYU

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Poinsetta

Cal -3 vs. Utah

Over/Under - 53 1/2

Hawaii

Nevada -14 vs. SMU

Over/Under - 73 1/2

Little Caesers

Ohio -2 vs. Marshall

Over/Under - 50

Meineke

Pitt -3 vs. UNC

Over/Under - 44 1/2

Emerald

USC -9 vs. BC

Over/Under - 45 1/2

Music City

Clemson -7 vs. Kentucky

Over/Under - 52 1/2

Independence

Georgia -7 vs. Texas A&M

Over/Under - 64

Eagle Bank (LSVC odds)

UCLA -4 vs. Temple

Over/Under - 46 1/2

Champs Sports

Miami (FL) -3 vs. Wisconsin

Over/Under - 56

Humanitarian

Bowling Green PK vs. Idaho

Over/Under - 68 1/2

Holiday

Arizona -1 vs. Nebraska

Over/Under - 41

Armed Forces

Houston -5 vs. Air Force

Over/Under - 61

Sun

Oklahoma -9 1/2 vs. Stanford

Over/Under - 56 1/2

Texas (LVSC odds)

Mizzou -6 vs. Navy

Over/Under - 54

Insight

Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa State

Over/Under - 48

Chick-Fil-A

Va Tech -4 1/2 vs. Tenn

Over/Under - 50 1/2

Outback

Auburn -8 vs. Northwestern

Over/Under - 54 1/2

Gator

West Virginia -2 1/2 vs. Florida St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Capital One

Penn State -3 vs. LSU

Over/Under - 44

Rose

Oregon -3 1/2 vs. Ohio State

Over/Under - 51 1/2

Sugar

Florida -10 vs. Cincy

Over/Under - 55 1/2

International

South Fla. -6 1/2 vs. No. Illinois

Over/Under - 50

PapaJohns

South Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UCONN

Over/Under - 53

Cotton

Ole Miss -3 vs. Okie State

Over/Under -  50 1/2

Liberty

Arkansas -7 1/2 vs. East Carolina

Over/Under - 63 1/2

Alamo

Texas Tech -7 vs. Michigan St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Fiesta

TCU -7 vs. Boise St

Over/Under - 54

Orange

Ga Tech -4 vs. Iowa

Over/Under - 51

GMAC

Central Mich -4 vs. Troy

Over/Under - 64

BCS Champ

Alabama -5 1/2 vs. Texas

Over/Under - 45

Week Fourteen BlogPoll Ballot Draft

T Kyle King — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:52:12 -0000

The time has come to cast my final regular-season BlogPoll ballot---or, at least, I think it has; I’m assuming we’re not submitting new top 25s after next weekend’s Army-Navy game---and here is what I came up with after starting with a blank piece of paper:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Cincinnati	2
3	Texas
4	Boise State	1
5	TCU	1
6	Florida	4
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Georgia Tech	1
10	Iowa	1
11	West Virginia	9
12	LSU	1
13	Arizona
14	Oregon State	2
15	Southern Cal
16	Virginia Tech	5
17	Stanford
18	Miami (Florida)	4
19	Pittsburgh	7
20	California	1
21	Oklahoma State	2
22	Brigham Young	1
23	Nebraska	1
24	Penn State	7
25	Wisconsin	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Houston (#18), Central Michigan (#25).

The Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) are No. 1. Duh! Of the dozen Division I-A opponents beaten by Nick Saban’s squad, nine finished with winning records, including the sixth-ranked Florida Gators, the twelfth-ranked LSU Tigers, and the 16th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies. The Tide’s only close calls came in rivalry games against teams who will be playing on New Year’s Eve or later.

In spite of their close call against the Pittsburgh Panthers in a game played in the snow featuring two botched extra point attempts, the Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) captured the No. 2 spot on my ballot by virtue of seven regular-season wins over teams that finished above .500, among them the 11th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, the 14th-ranked Oregon St. Beavers, and 19th-ranked Pitt. Also, Cincy gets credit for having a logo reminiscent of Chick-fil-A's.

While I understand and respect C&F’s argument, I awarded the No. 3 ranking to the Texas Longhorns (13-0) because Mack Brown’s outfit went undefeated against a slate that included no Division I-AA schedule fodder and only four teams that posted losing ledgers. Wins over the No. 21 Oklahoma St. Cowboys and the No. 23 Nebraska Cornhuskers provided heft to the Big 12 standard-bearer’s resume.

I ranked the Boise St. Broncos (13-0) ahead of the TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) for a variety of reasons. Both took advantage of a Division I-AA victim and each faced five Division I-A teams with winning records, but Boise State has an additional win and Texas Christian has two close shaves (at Air Force and at Clemson) as opposed to the Broncos’ one (at Tulsa). Boise State’s second- and third-best wins (over Nevada and Fresno State) are comparable to the Frogs’ (over Utah and Clemson), but the Broncos’ marquee victory over the seven-ranked Oregon Ducks far outshines TCU’s best pelt, that of the 22nd-ranked BYU Cougars.

The Sunshine State Saurians (12-1) slipped to sixth after their less than competitive neutral site outing against ‘Bama, as befits the nation’s lone once-beaten team, and Oregon (10-2) led the parade of two-loss teams because the Ducks fell to two quality teams on the road and made up for those setbacks with wins over three teams ranked in my top 20 (Arizona, Oregon State, and Cal).

The Ohio St. Buckeyes (10-2) earned a No. 8 ranking on the strength of wins over the tenth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes, the 24th-ranked Penn St. Nittany Lions, and the 25th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) rode their ~~fourth-place finish in the SEC East~~ ACC championship to the No. 9 ranking, although the Ramblin’ Wreck’s loss to the Georgia Bulldogs at home serves as a drag on a resume that includes five close calls in the Golden Tornado’s ten Division I-A wins. Only two of the Engineers’ victims finished with fewer than five losses, but one of those triumphs came over No. 16 VPI.

Iowa (10-2) carded quality victories over a trio of top 25 teams (Arizona, Penn State, and Wisconsin, all by double-digit margins) to overcome respectable losses to Ohio State and Northwestern, both of whom will be playing on New Year’s Day. (For whatever it might be worth, I would point out that the five BCS bowls pit No. 9 v. No. 10, No. 7 v. No. 8, No. 4 v. No. 5, No. 2 v. No. 6, and No. 1 v. No. 3 on my ballot. This ought to be a pretty good bowl season.)

West Virginia narrowly edged out Louisiana State in my estimation. Both teams boasted similar resumes: both finished 9-3; both won three games by a touchdown or less; both lost one game by a touchdown or less. However, as ashamed as I am to admit it, the Mountain Men’s win over Pitt counts for more this season than the Bayou Bengals’ win over Georgia. I know, it hurts me to admit that, too; visions of Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino will haunt my dreams tonight.

A glut of 8-4 clubs out of the Pac-10 proved difficult to untangle, but I declared the Arizona Wildcats first among equals by awarding Mike Stoops’s troops the No. 13 ranking. Three of Arizona’s four losses came on the road, two of them were nailbiters, and only one of them was the handiwork of a team with fewer than eight wins. The Wildcats carded victories over No. 14 Oregon State, the 15th-ranked USC Trojans, and the 17th-ranked Stanford Cardinal, with Central Michigan thrown in for good measure.

The Beavers landed right behind Arizona, partly because of wins over Cal and Stanford but mostly because of a quartet of quality losses. Oregon State’s four setbacks all came against opponents sporting eight or more wins, and, of the four, only the one against the No. 2 team in the country wasn’t a close call.

I will grant that it appears somewhat strange that I placed Stanford at No. 17, two spots behind Southern California (a club the Cardinal beat handily in Los Angeles) and three spots ahead of the California Golden Bears (a squad that defeated Jim Harbaugh’s outfit at the Farm), but Stanford had no legitimate third-best victory after the Cardinal’s wins over Oregon and USC to overcome the trio of triumphs notched by the Men of Troy over Ohio State, Oregon State, and Cal. Likewise, the Bears of Berkeley had trouble overcoming the fact that all four of their losses came by margins of 17 points or more. Oddly enough, Southern California, Stanford, and California each lost to a 5-7 team on the road, but the Trojans’ loss to the Washington Huskies and the Cardinal’s loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at least had the virtue of being close.

Sandwiched amid those West Coast outfits were No. 16 Virginia Tech (9-3), which beat top 25 teams Miami and Nebraska while sustaining three respectable defeats (including two to top ten squads); the 18th-ranked Miami Hurricanes (9-3), who are able to boast of a marquee win over Georgia Tech; and 19th-ranked Pittsburgh (9-3), which sneaked ahead of California by virtue of a more forgivable set of losses. The Panthers’ three setbacks all came by close margins, with two of those coming in down-to-the-wire clashes with top eleven opponents Cincinnati and West Virginia. Pitt’s loss to N.C. State was comparable to Cal’s loss to Washington---both came on the road against 5-7 squads---but the Wolfpack won by seven and the Huskies won by 32.

The inclusion of Oklahoma State (9-3) attested to the fact that next year’s BlogPoll should rank only 20 teams instead of 25---which the Associated Press poll did prior to 1989, by the way---but somebody had to be No. 21, so the Pokes were as qualified as anyone. Why was Les Miles’s old team ranked nine spots behind Les Miles’s current team when both have identical records and both count a win over the ‘Dawgs among their most impressive conquests? Simple: LSU lost to three teams with a combined 33-5 record by a combined 62-41 margin, while OSU lost to three teams with a combined 30-8 record by a combined 113-49 margin.

BYU (10-2) had absolutely no business being ranked after getting positively smoked by TCU and the hapless Florida St. Seminoles, but Brigham Young beat the Oklahoma Sooners and the Utah Utes, which counts for something. Nebraska (9-4) did little to impress me in the win column---the ‘Huskers beat only two teams with winning records---but, since all of the Big Red Machine’s losses were to teams that finished .500 or better and three of those were by razor-thin margins, I gave Bo Pelini’s team the benefit of the doubt.

The fact that Penn State (10-2) and Wisconsin (9-3) made the grade proves that I was scraping the bottom of the barrel; both the Nittany Lions and the Badgers lost convincingly to the Big Ten’s two top ten teams and neither beat more than two Division I-A teams that finished above .500, but the dearth of quality squads at the bottom of my ballot allowed a PSU team whose best win was against Temple and a Wiscy unit whose best win was against Fresno State to sneak undeservedly into the top 25.

Consideration was also given to the Boston College Eagles and the Mississippi Rebels. I’d like to tell you that I took a look at the Central Michigan Chippewas, East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Missouri Tigers, Navy Midshipmen, North Carolina Tar Heels, Northwestern Wildcats, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and Texas Tech Red Raiders, but, if I said so, I’d be lying.

I watched the Oregon-Oregon State game on Thursday, the Central Michigan-Ohio (Ohio) game on Friday, and a Saturday slate consisting primarily of the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, Alabama-Florida, and Clemson-Georgia Tech games, with bits of the Nebraska-Texas and Hawaii-Wisconsin tilts sprinkled in for variety.

As always, I actively solicit your input with respect to what is, after all, a draft ballot. Feel free to register your disagreement or lobby for or against particular teams in the comments below.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Game balls for Boise State versus Nevada

Kevan Lee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:07:39 -0000

More photos » by Matt Cilley - AP

25 days ago: Boise State's Doug Martin (22) rushes for a first down past Nevada's Jonathon Amaya (49) during the second half of their NCAA college football game on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009 in Boise, Idaho. BSU went on to win 44-33. (AP Photo/Matt Cilley)

Browse more photos »

Boise State showed a lot of heart and determination in Friday's win over Nevada, as the Broncos overcame several key injuries and one of the best teams on their schedule for a 44-33 victory.

Who took home a game ball from the win? I'll hand out a few after the jump, and I encourage you to add your own winners in the comments.

Readers' choice award for player of the game

Doug Martin

For the second week in a row, Martin won player of the game honors from OBNUG readers, thanks to his 110-yard second half and the slightly embarrassing man crush that Bronco Nation currently has on him. What can I say? Bronco fans heart exciting running backs, and Martin is exciting in a pressurized-air-keyboard-cleaner kind of way.

The only thing left between Martin and Bronco immortality is for the Idaho Statesman to demand its readers to come up with a nickname for the rushing duo of Martin and Jeremy Avery. Because that worked so well last time for the Boise State defense.

Gameplan of the game

Justin Wilcox

Coach Pete said it himself after the game: "Wilcox for president." And while I would need to look at Wilcox's stance on capital punishment and nationwide sidewalk infrastructure, I tend to agree with Coach Pete. Justin Wilcox for president, Bryan Harsin for vice, and Paul J. Schneider for surgeon general.

Wilcox's gameplan against Nevada was as solid as last year's, but it was also different enough that the Wolf Pack couldn't simply plan for what they had seen before. The Broncos still used defensive backs to neutralize Kaepernick's running ability. They still pinched hard inside to take away the dive play. But the formations and blitzes and coverages were creative enough that UNR never knew what hit them.

I'll tell you what didn't hit them: San Jose State's defense. Or New Mexico State's. Or Fresno State's. That the Broncos were able to hold down an offense that no one else could hold down speaks to just how far above the other WAC defenses Boise State really is. Forget this talk of Coach Pete going somewhere else to coach this offseason. I would be and will be worried about Wilcox.

Best impersonation of the Berlin Wall

Boise State offensive line

via impymalting.files.wordpress.com

Much-maligned throughout the season (what's new?), the Boise State offensive line has really hit its stride over the past three weeks. And they saved their best performance for the Nevada game.

Against the Wolf Pack, the Bronco offensive line did its best 1990's communist partition impersonation with the Bronco offense serving as the good side of Germany with the Oktoberfests, German candies, and Claudia Schiffer, and the Nevada defense serving as the bad side of Germany with the swastika museums, the ethnic bias, and sauerkraut. Kellen Moore was kept clean, Martin had holes to hit, and the Bronco offense rarely stalled due to any issues along the line.

Specifically, I'd like to point out two players who exceeded expectations on Friday night. Garrett Pendergast and Matt Slater had the dubious task of going mano-a-mano with Nevada's Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch, two of the best pass rushers in the conference. Pendergast was the sketchiest Bronco lineman going into the game, but he came up roses blocking on the edge. Slater was rushed into action with an injury to Nate Potter, and the former starter more than held his own.

Are we finally seeing a Bronco offensive line that can dominate like lines of old? Here's hoping.

Biggest casualty of the game

Austin Pettis' ankle

Broken or not broken, Pettis' ankle almost doomed the Broncos on Friday night, as the absence of the team's offensive glue almost caused the whole diorama of excellence and points to fall apart. Would you have been confident picking the Broncos to win, knowing Pettis was out and Nevada would score 33? I'm not sure I would. Credit the rest of the offense for stepping up without him. Do not credit the fashion groupthink that took high tops out of style.

Runner-up: Colin Kaepernick's NFL draft status

Best Bronco defender in a supporting role

Hunter White

The backup middle linebacker had more than his fair share of backing up to do once starter Daron Mackey went down with an injury on the defense's first play. Middle linebacker was a key position in the Broncos' defensive gameplan, and White was up to the task. He finished with a game-high in tackles and was the last man standing once fellow MLB Derrell Acrey left late in the game with an injury.

Many Bronco fans thought White would be the starter from opening week. How about the starter on closing week? Note to self: attrition is a perfectly acceptable way to get a promotion.

You're doing it wrong, oh wait, never mind award

Titus Young's kickoff return

via www.bradfox.com

Fumbling the opening kickoff is usually a bad thing (so too returning kicks from eight yards deep in the end zone), but Young's Midas touch and some non-threatening Nevada kick coverage turned disaster into euphoria as Young went 95 yards for the game's opening score. Plus, no celebration penalty! Bonus.

Play of the game

Aaron Tevis's forced fumble

There were many plays to choose from (and your play of the game might be completely different than mine), but Tevis's forced fumble was my choice because of its timing. With the Broncos clinging to a one-score lead and a couple drives after Kirby Moore had fumbled away a big gain, Nevada had the ball back at their own 25 at the start of the fourth quarter. Vai Taua dove through the line for a six-yard gain, which would have left a 3rd and 1 for the Wolf Pack, but Tevis came to the rescue, knocking the ball loose from Taua's bionic left arm. Venable recovered, the Broncos added a field goal, and momentum was back on Boise State's side.

Technical awards

Reparations award: Kyle Brotzman. The Broncos' hard-luck kicker made good on a 27-yard field goal in the second half, perhaps winning back a little bit of confidence from a scorned Bronco Nation. Was I the only one uneasy about Brotzman's attempt? I guess I learned my lesson. I will never doubt Brotzman on 27-yard attempts from the middle of the field again.
Graduate already award: Tons of Nevada players. Kaepernick, Taua, Moch, and Basped will all be back next year unless they plan on stealing a page from the Jeremy Childs playbook. Will next year be Nevada's year? Graham Watson most certainly will think so.
Broken streak of the week: Red zone TDs. For the first time since Louisiana Tech, the Broncos failed to get a TD on a trip to the red zone. Still, four out of five isn't bad.

Week Thirteen BlogPoll Ballot Draft

T Kyle King — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 10:00:16 -0000

When compiling this week’s BlogPoll ballot, I paid no attention to last week’s top 25 (ergo, you should ignore the arrows) and I did not consult any other person’s or organization’s rankings, so the fault for what follows is mine and mine alone. I began by cobbling together a list of all BCS conference teams with records of 9-3 or better and all mid-major teams with records of 10-2 or better. This list came to twenty teams, so I went back and added in the six BCS conference clubs with 8-3 records. In so doing, I overlooked nine BCS conference teams and independents with 8-4 records, as well as five mid-majors with 9-3 records. I remain open to arguments in favor of any of these teams, but the first draft of my ballot reads as follows:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Florida
3	Texas
4	Cincinnati
5	Boise State	1
6	TCU	1
7	Oregon	2
8	Ohio State	2
9	Iowa	2
10	Georgia Tech	3
11	Virginia Tech	1
12	Pittsburgh	4
13	LSU	7
14	Miami (Florida)	1
15	Southern Cal	6
16	Oregon State
17	Penn State	4
18	Houston	4
19	Oklahoma State	4
20	West Virginia
21	California	2
22	Nebraska
23	Brigham Young
24	Wisconsin
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Clemson (#14), Mississippi (#17), North Carolina (#18), Stanford (#24), Temple (#25).

The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) have beaten eight Division I-A teams with winning records, including the 11th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3), the 13th-ranked LSU Tigers (9-3), and the Mississippi Rebels (8-4), yet the Tide’s only close calls have come in heated rivalry showdowns with the Tennessee Volunteers and the Auburn Tigers, both of which are 7-5.

The Florida Gators (12-0) have beaten seven Division I-A teams with winning records, but the Sunshine State Saurians’ best victory was over Louisiana State, which is the second-best victim ‘Bama has bested. The Texas Longhorns (12-0) have taken down only five opponents who are above .500 and their best win was over the 19th-ranked Oklahoma St. Cowboys (9-3). As we shall see, the Pokes’ credentials are somewhat suspect, so the ‘Horns are a decidedly shaky No. 3 in my view.

I awarded the No. 4 spot on my ballot to the Cincinnati Bearcats (11-0) due to the fact that Brian Kelly’s club has bested the 16th-ranked Oregon St. Beavers (8-3), the 20th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3), and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3). All told, six of Cincy’s Division I-A triumphs have come against teams with winning ledgers.

The Boise St. Broncos narrowly edged out the TCU Horned Frogs for the No. 5 ranking, but it was a close call because the two teams’ resumes are so similar. The two mid-major mammoths arrived at 12-0 by virtually identical routes, as both clubs have beaten one Division I-AA opponent at home (UC-Davis for Boise State and Texas State for Texas Christian), one 6-6 squad on the road (Hawaii for the Broncos and Wyoming for the Frogs), five teams with winning records, and five teams with losing records. Each has beaten a 1-11 team at home (BSU defeated Miami (Ohio) and TCU defeated New Mexico) and each has taken advantage of four opponents with four or fewer wins.

The Horned Frogs’ second- and third-best wins (over the Utah Utes and the Clemson Tigers) were superior to the Broncos’ second- and third-best wins (over the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Fresno St. Bulldogs), but Boise State’s triumph over the seventh-ranked Oregon Ducks (9-2) carries considerably more weight than Texas Christian’s victory over the 23rd-ranked BYU Cougars (10-2), so the Broncos sneaked by the Frogs . . . barely.

(I would add at this point that Texas and Texas Christian have beaten the same number of Division I-A teams with records above .500 and that the Longhorns’ triumvirate of wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Missouri clubs with a combined 25-11 record is comparable in quality to the Horned Frogs’ trio of triumphs over BYU, Utah, and Clemson outfits with a cumulative 27-9 ledger. Texas and TCU share only one opponent in common; the ‘Horns traveled to Laramie and beat the Wyoming Cowboys 41-10, whereas the Frogs traveled to Laramie and beat the Wyoming Cowboys 45-10. Texas allowed 13 points in a narrow win over the Oklahoma Sooners at a neutral site game played in Dallas, while Texas Christian went on the road and throttled a Brigham Young team that allowed 13 points in a narrow win over the Oklahoma Sooners at a neutral site game played in Arlington. There is a compelling case to be made for the proposition that the Longhorns are not the top team in the Lone Star State, or, at least, are not noticeably distinguishable from the other contender for that title.)

Oregon laid claim to the No. 7 ranking ahead of the Ohio St. Buckeyes (10-2) in spite of the fact that the Big Ten champions have the better collection of victories over winning teams: Ohio State beat Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Navy, while the Ducks defeated Southern California, California, Utah, and Arizona. The Buckeyes were dragged down by the fact that they lost to two teams, including the Purdue Boilermakers (5-7), that both were beaten by Oregon.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) landed one notch behind an Ohio State team to which they lost a close contest on the road. Iowa ended up ahead of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) not on the basis of wins, but of losses. In the victory column, the Hawkeyes and the Engineers are comparable. Both have ten wins; both claimed four of those victories by a touchdown or less; both beat one Division I-AA team and three Division I-A teams with winning records. On the whole, the Ramblin’ Wreck’s top three triumphs (over Virginia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina) arguably are better than Iowa’s (over Penn State, Wisconsin, and Arizona), but the Hawkeyes lost a couple of close ones to an 8-4 team at home and a 10-2 team on the road. The Golden Tornado lost a close one to a 7-5 team at home and a thumping to a 9-3 team on the road.

Wins over No. 14 Miami (Florida) and No. 22 Nebraska enabled the Gobblers to overcome three very respectable losses and claim the No. 11 ranking for VPI, while the Pittsburgh Panthers (9-2) staked an admittedly shaky claim to the No. 12 spot with victories over Rutgers, Navy, and South Florida. Both of Pitt’s losses came in close contests on the road, but the Panthers’ early-season setback to the N.C. State Wolfpack (5-7) gives me pause and I very well might be persuaded to drop Dave Wannstedt’s club.

The Bayou Bengals’ three best wins were over a trio of 7-5 teams (Georgia, Arkansas, and Auburn), but their losses to Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss are forgivable, so Louisiana State sneaked ahead of the Miami Hurricanes (9-3). A convincing win over Georgia Tech, a recent triumph over the South Florida Bulls (7-4), a previous victory over Oklahoma that acquired new luster in the Bedlam Battle, and a trio of losses to teams with at least eight wins apiece vaulted the ‘Canes ahead of the USC Trojans (8-3), who are hanging onto narrow victories against Ohio State and Oregon State while otherwise relying upon name recognition to make us forget about a stumble against the Washington Huskies (4-7) and blowout losses to Oregon and Stanford.

The Beavers ended up behind the Men of Troy thanks to the head-to-head result of the two teams’ Pac-10 meeting in Los Angeles, but wins over Cal and Stanford continue to keep Oregon State in contention. Despite boasting a 10-2 record, the Penn St. Nittany Lions deserved no better than a No. 17 ranking because Joe Paterno’s club has beaten the Northwestern Wildcats, the Temple Owls, and no other Division I-A teams above .500 while being beaten soundly by both Ohio State and Iowa.

I know lots of folks don’t think the Houston Cougars deserve to be ranked, but the Cougs are a refugee from a traditional Southern power conference and a division champion who got to 10-2 by beating a Division I-AA opponent, skating by four Division I-A foes by seven or fewer points, beating the Mississippi St. Bulldogs (5-7) in Starkville, and taking advantage of five teams with losing records. Houston sounds to me a lot like Georgia Tech, but, whereas an ACC division champion would finish fourth in the SEC East, a Conference USA division champion would finish in the top half of the Big 12 South, at least judging by the Cougars’ wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Those key non-league wins allowed Houston to overcome the problem of having lost on the road to the UTEP Miners (4-8).

For obvious reasons, the Cowboys remained one spot behind the Cougars, but a better set of losses (to Texas, Houston, and Oklahoma) allowed the Pokes to stay ahead of a West Virginia unit that fell to Cincinnati, South Florida, and Auburn before boosting its resume by beating Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.

The California Golden Bears (8-3) suffered their three setbacks to teams with eight or more victories each, but none of those losses came in close contests and Cal’s wins over the Stanford Cardinal (8-4) and the Arizona Wildcats (7-4) are the only bright spots in a resume weighed down by the presence of triumphs over Division I-AA Eastern Washington, the Washington St. Cougars (1-11), the Maryland Terrapins (2-10), and the Arizona St. Sun Devils (4-8), the latter of whom the Berkeley Bears barely beat.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) won the Big 12 North after tackling a non-conference slate straight out of the Sun Belt. The Big Red Machine beat Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, and Louisiana-Lafayette but defeated only one team all year with a ledger better than 7-5. The ‘Huskers came up short against the Iowa St. Cyclones (6-6) in an offensively moribund contest, so Nebraska clings to a No. 22 ranking while patiently awaiting its loss to Texas.

Brigham Young does not deserve to be ranked, but I had trouble finding another team to rank 23rd, so the spot went to a Cougar club that lost lopsided affairs to Texas Christian and the Florida St. Seminoles (6-6). Narrow wins over Utah and Oklahoma are about all BYU has to its credit, but those victories are better than the Wisconsin Badgers’ triumphs over Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Those are the only two teams over .500 to have fallen to Wiscy in the course of the Badgers’ 8-3 autumn.

The Central Michigan Chippewas (10-2) slipped into the No. 25 spot ahead of Rutgers because the State University of New Jersey beat a pair of Division I-AA teams and the Chips at least sneaked by the Michigan St. Spartans (6-6) on the road. Also, unlike the Scarlet Knights, they didn’t lose to the gender-neutral Syracuse Orange (4-8).

You should by all means feel free to offer constructive criticisms, heartfelt feedback, and thoughtful arguments for the inclusion or exclusion of particular teams. For what it’s worth, I watched the Ball State-Western Michigan game on Tuesday and the first half of the Texas-Texas A&M game on Thursday before devoting my Friday to flipping back and forth among and between the Cincinnati-Illinois, Alabama-Auburn, Colorado-Nebraska, Pitt-West Virginia, and Boise State-Nevada games. My Saturday was spent bouncing around between the Clemson-South Carolina, Mississippi-Mississippi State, Florida-Florida State, and Miami-South Florida games before I settled in for the Georgia-Georgia Tech game.

Go ‘Dawgs!

2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 13

Bama Hawkeye — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:29:09 -0000

Everything is clear. Some things are clear as crystal. Others are as clear as mud. But make no mistake, the situation is clear.

TCU will go to the BCS. The BCS Championship? Only with a couple of upset losses.

On the crystal side, the SEC Champ will play Texas, Cincinnati, or TCU in the BCS Championship Game. I think that's the order, too. If Texas beats Nebraska, they'll go. If not, Cincy is next in line. After playing the Pitt, they'll move ahead of TCU in the standings. Should the Bearcats fall to the Panthers, I think TCU gets their chance. I do not see a repeat of the SEC Championship game. Not with one viable undefeated team in the clubhouse and two more approaching 18. All in all, the 10 BCS teams are pretty safe bets. I've mentioned some alternatives, but I think that there are only 15 teams in play for the 10 spots.On the mud side, look at the SEC after the top 4 teams are placed. That's right, six 7-5 teams.

This Week's Articles

JerDogg finally admits that Minnesota just ain't that good.

Graham ranks the Big Ten quarterbacks for their 2009 performance.

Greg discusses the future of Tate Forcier and moving Denard Robinson to WR.

Good luck making any sense of it. I took my best shot, but you can feel free to speculate in a different direction. If you're counting, there are four open bowl spots for at large teams. 9 win MTSU and 7 win Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will take three of the spots. That leaves room for one 6-6 team to go to Mobile, Alabama to play the top choice from the MAC. My guess is that it's UCLA.

Full projections of all of the Big Ten, BCS, and every other bowl game after the jump.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			The SEC Champion will finish Number 1 in the BCS. Texas will finish #2 if they beat the Huskers. If they lose, Cincinnati will finish #2 with a win over PItt. If Texas and Cincy lose, TCU will slide into the number two spot.
			Beware of Clemson. Aren't they most dangerous after losing a game they have no business dropping? If Clemson wins the ACC, the Orange Bowl will likely take Cincinnati over a regular season rematch.
			Oklahoma State's loss means that the second Big Ten BCS team will be in Arizona, not Florida. If the Huskers upset Texas, Nebraska will be here, Texas will be selected by the Orange, and the Fiesta will still get a Big Ten team (and Boise will be left out). And yes, it very well could be Penn State over Iowa. If it was the Orange making the decision, it probably would be. But I'm still thinking that the Fiesta goes black and gold (and $green$).
			The only way that this isn't the SEC Runner-Up versus the Big East Champ is if Clemson or Nebraska pulls the upset.
			Ohio State has punched their ticket. The winner of Oregon/Oregon State will do the same. It says here that the Ducks win and head to Pasadena.
			LSU slips back into Orlando after Ole MIss lays an Egg against Mississippi State. From the Big Ten, this will be the loser of the behind the scenes battle between Iowa and Penn State.
			Is there any chance that this could be Northwestern? Maybe if Wisconsin loses at Hawaii, but I still have a hard time seeing the Wildcats winning that tiebreaker. Picking Tennessee here establishes them as the most desirable of the SEC's 7-5 mob.
			I think Clemson gets this bid after Virginia Tech and Miami.
			Yes, I think that 7-5 Oklahoma is selected over 8-win Missouri and Texas Tech. If good-MSU and good-OU show up, this could be a great game. If one of the schools brings their bad squad, it could get ugly.
			I don't see this matchup going well for the Gophers. Then again, if it was OU or Texas Tech, I don't know that it would go much better.
			Another Big Ten-less Motor City Bowl.
			When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

			Kudos to Wyoming for getting bowl eligible.
			The bowl will want a Florida connection if it can get it.
			Troy has clinched their trip back to New Orleans. ECU makes for a great matchup.
			BYU makes their 122nd consecutive trip to Las Vegas. Oregon State will be a great match for them there.
			I expect the Mountain West to arrange their alignment to give their big three the best games possible.
			Both teams say that they'll play "anytime, anywhere." Time to prove it.
			This will be Pitt or West Virginia from the Big East. For the second year in a row, Tar Heel fans should fill the seats.
			Bowden's last stand in that hotbed of college football --- San Francisco?
			Boston College is always a tough out in a bowl game. This should be no exception.
			Independence Bowl selects its Big 12 team ahead of the Texas Bowl this year. I think they take the team that gave Texas a battle over the team that beat Nebraska. My guess is that it's a choice between Kentucky and South Carolina on the SEC side.
			If Army defeats Navy in two weeks, they'll replace Marshall.
			Idaho is happy enough to go bowling. I'm sure that staying close to home is all right with them.
			Navy has clinched this bid. On the Big 12 side, it will be whoever is left between Iowa State and Texas A&M.
			Could the Cotton take Nebraska over Oklahoma State? Yes. Especially if the Huskers show well in a loss to Texas.
			The Ponies are another team that won't mind the quick commute for the bowl game.
			Should be a fun game.
			Georgia brings the crowd, while Miami brings the sizzle.
			It's an old fashioned Big East battle. Notre Dame's 6th loss means that the Gator Bowl can't pick the Irish. My guess is that West Virginia will head to Jacksonville if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh (and the Mountaineers beat Rutgers). If the Panthers win, Cincy heads here.
			Still weird to see Temple in a bowl.
			I've got South Carolina as the last choice out of the SEC. It has as much to do with geography as anything else.
			Yes, this could be Nebraska over Okie State. I suppose that one of those seven win SEC teams could be chosen here too. When push comes to shove, I think that the teams with the best records get chosen.
			Think that Arkansas will bring some fans to Memphis? I have Houston beating ECU. The C-USA champ automatically goes here.
			GMAC gets first choice from the MAC. Not champion, first choice. I project that's CMU, regardless of what happens elsewhere. It looks like it will come down to UCLA or Notre Dame to fill an empty ACC slot With the firing/hiring going on in South Bend, I expect the Irish to decline a bid.

Boise State beats Nevada 44-33, wins WAC championship and stays undefeated

Kevan Lee — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:36:24 -0000

More photos » by Matt Cilley - AP

26 days ago: Boise State's Titus Young (4) runs back the opening kickoff for a touchdown against Nevada during the first half of an NCAA college football game on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009, in Boise, Idaho. (AP Photo/Matt Cilley)

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The Broncos overcame injuries and a determined Nevada team to win their seventh WAC title in eight years with a 44-xx win over the Wolf Pack.

Kellen Moore threw five touchdowns and Doug Martin rushed for over 100 yards for the Broncos, and the BSU defense held Nevada's Colin Kaepernick in check in the second half. What stood out to you in Boise State's big win? Join me after the jump in a few minutes for some analysis of the game (UPDATE: 12:45: analysis now added).

Doug Martin saves the Bronco offense, saves the Bronco season?

As far as I'm concerned, the game turned on a Doug Martin drive midway through the third quarter. Spanning the first and second halves, the Broncos had passed on 13 of 15 plays, broken up only be a Kellen Moore QB sneak and a Jeremy Avery two yard loss. Worse, the pass had stopped working as effectively as it was early in the game.

At the same time, Nevada was slowly crawling back into the game. The Wolf Pack had taken a 27-3 deficit and made it 27-19, having just punted on a drive that could have tied the game. The Boise State offense needed a spark, and it needed one badly.

Enter Doug Martin, who had already contributed some clutch first down conversions on an earlier TD drive. He took off for carries of 11, 16, 8, 8, and 5 yards to start the drive, moving the ball from the Boise State 36 to the Nevada 27 all by his lonesome. Kellen Moore capped the drive with his fourth touchdown of the night to a wide open Tommy Gallarda. The lead was pushed to 15, and even though Nevada answered on its next play from scrimmage, the game no longer felt tilted in the Wolf Pack's favor.

Colin Kaepernick reduced to Vai Taua middleman and generally bad QB by Boise State defense

Boise State held Kaepernick to 172 total yards - his 2nd lowest output of the season - and left him completely out of sorts in the second half, thanks to another strong overall effort by the defense. For much of the game, Kaepernick handed off to RB Taua on Nevada's vaunted veer option, as Taua finished with 24 carries for 160 yards. Kaepernick's numbers? Slightly less impressive.

16 carries, 31 yards, 0 TDs.

His passing was a little more effective - on two drives. To end the first half, Kaepernick marched the Wolf Pack 79 yards in 1:30, going 5-for-5 for 62 yards on the drive. To end the game, Kaepernick again took Nevada down field and into the end zone on a 71-yard drive, completing four passes for 66 yards and a score.

The rest of the game? 13 yards passing and an 0-for-7 stretch during the third and fourth quarters that all but spelled Nevada's doom.

Much credit goes to the Bronco defense for stopping Kaepernick. They took the ball out of his hand on the option and forced him to go laterally when he kept it around the end. I only remember three or four times when he was really able to turn it upfield and gain yards, but it would have taken a lot more of those carries to make a difference in tonight's game.

Austin Pettis proved his value by standing on the bench in street clothes

If anyone was not convinced that Pettis is perhaps the team's most valuable player, his absence from pretty much all of the Nevada game should have stated a pretty good case. The Broncos missed Pettis. There is simply no other receiver like him, and the drop off from Pettis to Chris Potter and Mitch Burroughs is considerable.

Nevertheless, for the Broncos to overcome an injury to an MVP-type player like Pettis shows a lot of heart and guile from the team. Young players stepped up in Pettis' absence. Doug Martin made his presence felt. Kellen Moore found other receivers to contribute. But the biggest impact might have been on the Broncos' gameplan, as there's a pretty good chance that Coach Pete and Bryan Harsin had to throw the whole thing out the window once Pettis went down. The changes to the strategy on offense - be it Doug Martin's running, working FBs and TEs against Nevada linebackers - obviously worked. Here's hoping the coaches get the credit they deserve.

By the way, anyone want a do-over on that two-point conversion try? I'm okay with the call. You could never know that Pettis would get hurt on something like that.

Same with Daron Mackey

Mackey was no doubt a huge part of Boise State's gameplan to stop Kaepernick and Co., so seeing him leave the game on the first defensive snap couldn't have been easy. Major high fives to Derrell Acrey and Hunter White for stepping in to fill Mackey's shoes (although Acrey did leave the field late in the fourth quarter with an injury).

Anyone catch Boise State's defensive strategy?

Whatever the Broncos did to Nevada, it worked. Apart from one long Vai Taua run, the Wolf Pack were forced to grind their way down the field or get nothing at all. Five times the Broncos forced three-and-outs. Nevada had barely more than 10 total three-and-outs coming into the game.

So what did you see the Broncos doing? They lined up in the 3-4 defense quite often with Shea McClellin and Byron Hout getting much of the work at stand-up OLB. The Broncos brought the middle linebackers fairly often at the first sign of a run. Venable or another spy seemed to always be ready to take Kaepernick down, which may have been why he chose the inside handoff so often.

All those are great, but one thing that I really enjoyed was the timing of the pre-snap movement. The Bronco defensive line waited to change the set-up until Nevada's center put his head down to get the snap signal from Kaepernick. When he brought his head back up and snapped the ball, all the Bronco linemen were in a different position. It's the simple things, really.

All Dan Paul does is catch touchdowns

Paul went 3-for-3 on catches for touchdowns against Nevada, snaring all three first-half Kellen Moore TD tosses. And as if that didn't make Richie Brockel feel bad enough, Heather Cox had to remind Brockel about three times during his interview that he is injured and out for the season.

Kirby Moore makes the most of his second chance

Moore's fumble near midfield late in the third quarter could have been a killer for the Broncos. Boise State was only leading by 8 at the time, and the drive started after Taua's 71-yard sprint to the end zone. Fortunately, the Boise State defense came up big with a three-and-out and no harm was done.

Kellen let Kirby redeem himself on one of the game's most important plays. Boise State faced a 3rd and 5 at the Nevada 6-yard-line with just over five minutes to play and an 11-point lead. If Nevada held the Broncos to a field goal, it still would have been only a two-possession game, and the Wolf Pack would have been very much in it. But the Moore brothers made that point irrelevant as Kellen placed a beautiful fade pass onto the arms of Kirby who caught it with a defender draped on him and falling out of bounds. The touchdown essentially iced the game.

Titus Young starts things off right

Young's opening kickoff wasn't the most beautiful TD return you'll ever see, but what a way to start the game. After fumbling the kick, Young weaved his way in and out of Nevada tackles, breaking free for a 95-yard TD return. The return set the tone for a strong start to the game that saw the Broncos jump out to leads of 20-0 and 27-3.

Aaron Tevis came up big in the second half

As he usually does, Tevis found himself in the middle of some big plays against Nevada, both coming in the fourth quarter. His strip of Vai Taua led to a Bronco field goal, and on the next series, he sacked Kaepernick for a 16-yard loss back to the Nevada 10 that gave the Broncos a short field (and ended with Moore's TD catch).

Other observations

Did Jason Robinson ever see the field? Seemed like Venable took the most snaps he has taken all year.
Kyle Brotzman did not get any bounces to go his way tonight on punts. A 35-yard average is pedestrian for Brotzman.
Kaepernick short-hops more passes than any other quarterback I have seen. In fact, he looked like a worse quarterback tonight than he did last season. I don't mean to be hard on the kid, but he never looked comfortable on passing plays. When he was blitzed, he gave up on his receivers too early and started scrambling. When he scrambled he was never able to see receivers downfield. Was the Boise State secondary just playing that good? Partly, I'm sure. But I think Kaepernick should be better than he was tonight.
Credit that Nevada offensive line. They know how to run block and move the pile.
The Mitch Burroughs Experiment found a new way to disappoint: dropping sure touchdowns that would give his team a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Ugh. I will give Austin Pettis my ankle so that I never have to see that again.
Can we just give Kellen Moore the WAC offensive player of the year trophy now and get it over with? He'll likely have 40 passing TDs by the time the New Mexico State game is over.
On a similar note, can we give the defensive player of the year to Ryan Winterswyk? He's at least got to be in the conversation, right?
Did Nate Potter ever come back in the game after that facial laceration? I saw Matt Slater in there for quite awhile.
That defensive pass interference call on 3rd and 4 on the Broncos' last drive was a huge one.
Boise State finished 7-for-14 on 3rd downs, and they got a big conversion on every single TD drive. Dan Paul's first TD catch was on 3rd and 2, Kirby Moore caught a 34-yard pass on third down on the second TD drive, Doug Martin converted two third downs with receptions on the third drive, Martin ran for a conversion on the fourth TD drive, and the pass interference call and Kirby's touchdown both came on third down on Boise State's final scoring drive.
Nevada linebackers in coverage: Yikes.
Seeing Ault and Kaepernick just makes my skin crawl. I think I despise them almost more than any other Boise State opponent, Akey and Enderle included.
Is it time to talk openly about the BCS now? I mean, New Mexico State doesn't really count as a real game, right?
I'm very anxious to get the injury report on those Bronco players.
I'm just as anxious for the Oklahoma State game tomorrow.
Man, there were a lot of extra observations this game.
Go Broncos.

Poll

Who was Boise State's player of the game versus Nevada?

Doug Martin

176 votes

Kellen Moore

60 votes

Aaron Tevis

7 votes

Dan Paul

59 votes

302 votes | Poll has closed

Final pregame thoughts on Boise State versus Nevada

Kevan Lee — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:30:12 -0000

It's Nevada and Boise State for the WAC championship tonight. Anyone nervous?

Feel free to share all your pregame hopes and fears in the comments. Get stuff off your chest, vent, complain, whatever. The comments are yours. After the jump, I talk through some of my own observations then open it up for you. See you for the gamethread later this evening. Go Broncos.

A better Nevada team versus a worse Boise State team?

Last year, despite a seven-point win in Reno, the Broncos were leaps and bounds better than the Wolf Pack. Last year's Boise State team could have been the school's best. Last year's Nevada team finished 7-6.

This year's battle between the WAC's two best teams seems to be destined for a closer game. Nevada is playing better football than they have all season, and they are running the ball better than any other team in school history. Boise State is undefeated, like last year, but their road to perfection has been a bit more bumpy than 2008's breeze.

So the question is: How big was the gap between the two schools to begin with?

I'm going to say that the gap was pretty big. Though Nevada has been the WAC's No. 2 for the past couple season, they have not exactly been in the same class as Boise State. The Broncos are far and away the better team, and even with Boise State playing a little looser than last year and the Wolf Pack playing better, the gap exists. And there's a good possibility that the gap still remains large. Boise State knows how to win. Nevada knows how to run the ball. Both are nice, but only one will matter at the end tonight.

The closest game in nearly three months and the Broncos are still 14-point favorites

The stat is incredible, really. Talk around town is that Nevada could give the Broncos their toughest test all season, yet the consensus is that Boise State will win by two touchdowns. Where else is a team two touchdowns better than their closest competition? The AFC East? Space Jam?

via www.adorocinema.com

Here are some other lines from around the country.

Alabama 10-point favorite over Auburn
Oklahoma 8-point favorite over Oklahoma State
Georgia Tech 7.5-point favorite over Georgia

Perhaps the nation's best team, Alabama doesn't even get two touchdowns against a so-so Auburn. Oklahoma State is a one touchdown underdog. Georgia Tech is only giving one touchdown against a struggling Georgia. These games are not necessarily going to be close, yet the point spread is slim. The mood for tonight's game is that the Broncos and Wolf Pack will play a nailbiter, yet the spread says otherwise.

When a two-touchdown underdog causes the most worries for your team, you must have things pretty good.

Imagine a world where a playoff exists ...

If the playoff lets in all conference champions, tonight's game would be for a chance at a national title for both teams. Think Bronco Stadium would sell out for that?

Allow me to bogart some comments

Will tonight's game be low scoring? Not if OBNUG readers know what they are talking about.

Apart from a shutout prediction from Loque, every predict the score prediction (by the way, it's not too late to add yours) gave the Wolf Pack at least 14 points, and most saw things going north of 20. Does no one remember the Oregon game? I remember it. But I'm not predicting 19-8.

An interesting storyline to watch will be how many TFLs the Bronco defense can wrangle. From forum8usa:

Kapi will run, but won’t be a big threat. I’m predicting that Kapi gets sacked at least 5 times.

Bronco fans worried last week, seeing Diondre Borel elude more than his fair share of tackles against Boise State. Can Kaepernick do the same? I'm not convinced. Kaepernick doesn't break tackles so much as he avoids them. Fortunately, for Boise State, there is a difference. The Broncos have fallen victim to missed tackles this year, but they rarely get so far out of position that they don't even have a chance to tackle. I feel that if a Bronco defender gets a shot at bringing Kaepernick down, he will do it. And if it happens behind the line, all the better.

What about the start of the game? Boise State has started slow in recent weeks. HawkeyedFrog thinks that trend is over.

Boise State gets up early and Nevada is left having to depart from their gameplan to try to play catchup, feeding right into the hands of Boise’s D.

I would like this very much. Last year, the Broncos were able to get up early on the Wolf Pack, and that helped keep Nevada's running numbers low. If the Broncos can get TDs on offense early in the game and force a few punts, the game will go a lot smoother than it might otherwise.

Another thing to consider is how the Broncos might respond to a close game in the third or fourth quarter. IN hindsight, it might even be a blessing in disguise that LaTech and Tulsa turned out to be closer than anticipated. I have no doubt that the Broncos can handle themselves if the game is tight late. They know Nevada is capable of hanging with them for awhile, so it won't be a surprise. And Boise State has the depth and game experience to be confident.

Your turn

What is on your mind as the Nevada game nears? Nervous about what will happen? Think this is the best team the Broncos have faced? Expecting it to be close? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.