SB Nation - North Texas Eagles

Initial Impressions from the Arkansas Game

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 07:02:38 -0000

A few initial impressions from the Tide's 35-7 win over Arkansas on Saturday:

For the second year in a row, 'Bama moves to 4-0 with a blowout win over Arkansas, and though the margin of victory wasn't as high as it was a year ago Fayetteville, if you look at all of the other metrics of the game, this year's game was actually far more lopsided than the contest a year ago. One way or the other, though, overall there are no real complaints about our performance today. Arkansas is still clearly building under Petrino, but it's still a decent SEC caliber team that should make a bowl game, and you never complain when you can blow out someone like that.
The one major complaint I will have with this game is that the Hogs played dirty ball, plain and simple. The shot on Hightower was cheap, even though probably legal, and that's not counting the other clipping penalties, the egregious facemask on Julio on Richardson's touchdown run, the absurd no-call on roughing the passer late, etc. You could effectively go on all day rattling off dirty play after dirty play by Arkansas. It was easily the dirtiest game I've seen any opponent play against Alabama since Southern Miss in 2005, and honestly even the Golden Eagles had nothing that night that could hold a candle to what Arkansas showed today. Petrino ought to be ashamed of himself, and frankly he ought to be thankful Saban called off the dogs late. The Nicktator could have ran up the score and chose not to, which is something that many others (myself included) would not have done.
And speaking of Dont'a Hightower, well, unfortunately we have to address that sooner or later. Obviously we know nothing official at this point and we won't get anything official until the MRI results come back later today. Nevertheless, sigh, I'm afraid all objective indicators point to significant structural damage to the knee, and most likely a season-ending injury. Even if it's not season-ending, Hightower looks to miss an extended period of time. Hopefully that's not the case, but objectively speaking that's what all signs currently point to. In his absence, Cory Reamer played well, but frankly there is no replacing Hightower. If our fears are confirmed later today, I'll have a post up later this week on how his absence will impact us and how we will look to replace him.
Defensively, you almost just have to stand in awe of what this unit accomplished today. At worst, outside of Tuscaloosa and Gainesville, Arkansas has the best offense in the SEC, and our defense turned it into a completely impotent attack today. Ryan Mallett was pressured and harassed all afternoon, our defensive backs covered well, and we did a good job of stopping the run. All told, Arkansas ended up with seven points and only about 250 total yards of offense. They averaged only about 3.7 yards per snap, Mallett barely completed 33% of his passes, and they were an anemic 2-14 on third down. And none of that is the result of shortcomings on the part of the Arkansas offense, our defense just played that well. Even without Dont'a Hightower, our defense was still effectively an immovable object even with one of the SEC's best attacks whaling away at it.

Offensively things didn't go quite as well, but still a nice day. The Arkansas defense is poor, but nevertheless we racked up 35 points and 425 yards of total offense. Not our best day to date, but it really just does show you how good we have become offensively for this not to be considered a banner day. Three years ago, we couldn't even muster this kind of offensive attack against either 0-12 FIU or 0-12 Duke.
Greg McElroy was nothing short of exceptional today, yet again. I know the Arkansas defense is a bad one, but even so McElroy's stat line is nevertheless incredible. The only quarterback in the SEC who has played better than him to date is Tim Tebow, and McElroy looks better each and every week. He had about one poor decision today, and that's about the norm for him. The great thing about McElroy is that he's such an accurate passer and he's so thorough about going through his checks when nothing is open down field. It just all results in it being a highly efficient passing attack... usually a "bad" passing play results in a short gain of a few yards. To date, there have just been few incompletions, very few sacks (and the few that do happen generally lose very little yardage), and almost no interceptions. Again, it all results in a highly efficient passing attack, and that all goes back to the pinpoint accuracy and great decision making ability of McElroy. I'll be honest... this is my 20th season of following Alabama football closely, and I have never seen a 'Bama quarterback playing this well.
Unfortunately, the bad news with our offense is that we are heavily reliant on McElroy and the passing game. Our running game was pretty much smoked by the Hogs today, and we could manage very little on the ground. If you factor out Richardson's long touchdown run -- which, truth be told, barring the incredible run, should have been a three yard loss -- Ingram and Richardson averaged roughly 2.5 yards per carry on 25 carries. I really hate to say it, but I'm afraid this is a problem we cannot fix. Again, as I mentioned in the preview, we're over 100 pounds lighter this year at the point of attack, and we simply cannot manhandle SEC caliber defensive fronts anymore. And the little success we are getting in the running game is honestly do to having some incredible tailbacks. Honestly, if we had average tailbacks, we'd be in a world of hurt right now. As effective as our passing game has been to date, I hate to say it but offensively we are almost wholly reliant on that passing game to move the football. If the passing game ever goes out, I'm afraid we're in major trouble offensively.
Penalties... sigh. Yet another bad day for penalties. Some of them were admittedly a bit ticky-tack, but still, 7 penalties for 60 yards, many of which were costly. I'm afraid the penalties breakdown column will return this week.
The pass rush generally did a fine job today against Mallett. We had three sacks, lots of hurries, and several batted balls. Petrino did a nice job of figuring out our blitz schemes later in the game, but still a highly successful day rushing the passer for the Tide. I will say, though, that the Arkansas offensive line could officially be called the King of Holds. They were grabbing our rushers all day and it was rarely called. For a league that is supposedly cracking down on holding penalties in the passing game, you'd never realize it by watching today's game. Judging by the way the Arkansas offensive line tackled some of our rushers today, their biggest problem is that they don't play on the defensive line.
Cody... he's practically unstoppable as a lead blocker. He sealed off the edge on the Ingram touchdown run by pancaking one Arkansas defender into another Arkansas defender, knocking both to the ground. If there's a better way to seal off the edge than with a double pancake by a converted nose guard playing fullback, I don't know of it. And as I've said before, you can mortgage everything you own that we have a couple of plays built in to get Cody the football. It will happen at some point, guarantee it.
And speaking of wrinkles built into the scheme, do you now see the point that I was making with the Wildcat after the Virginia Tech game? Again, there are a million things you can do with it, and if nothing else it's an effective way to pound the interior running game. And rest assured that there are even more wrinkles built in that we will use later.
All in all, it was yet another good day for the Tide, and thank the Football Gods those have been contagious as of late. Making matters better, the win over Virginia Tech is looking even more impressive after their thumping of Miami, and the remaining schedule looks even better with the continued struggles of Ole Miss and LSU. Aside from the Hightower injury, things went about as well as they possibly could have this weekend. From here, let's turn to next week and Kentucky. The Wildcats don't look all that great -- and thankfully Florida beat them up pretty good this weekend -- but we played very poorly against this team last year, and we're going to need a better performance when we go to Lexington next Saturday for kick-off at breakfast. If nothing else, Kentucky is one of the best coached teams in the country and they will show up ready to play, so we're going to have to show up prepared and ready to get the job done. No looking forward to playing Ole Miss in Oxford a week later.

Running Back Success Rates: Alabama vs. North Texas

Nico2.0 — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:00:20 -0000

Much like the Florida International game, our success rates against a defense like North Texas aren't going to tell us a ton about our running game, but still, we want to provide the information for your perusal. I've been delayed on processing the VT numbers and will have those ready on Wednesday or Thursday. Anyway, four backs carried in our game against UNT and, as always, they'll be listed in the order they got their first carry. For those of you that need a refresher on RB success rate, it goes a little something like this: a carry is successful if on...

1st down: the RB gains 40% of the yardage needed
2nd down: the RB gains 60% of the yardage needed
3rd & 4th down: the RB gains 100% of the yardage needed

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	8	91	11.4	1	3	38	12.7	1

Ingram had another solid day with 129 all-purpose yards (91 rushing, 38 receiving) and he had both a rushing and receiving TD. Actually, I guess you can't get much more perfect than having every carry you take be deemed a success.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Trent Richardson	11	87	7.9	1	1	3	3	0

Richardson turned in another solid performance as well. Nothing you can really complain about when 73% of his carries were successful. Two of his three unsuccessful carries were only a yard short of being deemed successful so he was two yards shy of being 10 of 11. His carry for (-1) yards in the first half was the only negative play we had all day as far as designed runs were concerned.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Terry Grant	19	79	4.2	2	2	29	1 4.5	0

Grant got more carries than any other back in the game. He had as many as Ingram and Richardson combined. Considering the fact that the lion's share of his carries came in the 2nd half behind non-starters, I'd say his overall 63% is quite good.

vs North Texas / 9.19.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	1	14	14	0	0	0	0	0

With only one carry, there's no need to construct a chart for Goode. His 14 yard carry was on a first & 10, putting his success rate at 100% for the day.

Needless to say, we pretty much ran the ball at will against North Texas. Our overall team success rate was 74%. We had eight carries of 10 yards or more and 21 carries of five yards or better. Move the ball like that and it's nearly impossible not to win. This analyses will get more interesting once we delve into conference play.

Monday Morning Required Reading

kleph — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:00:27 -0000

Who's excited about kicking off SEC play on Saturday?

Alrighty all. There's a long work week to get through so lets not dilly dally and waste any of that quality procrastination time it holds for us. Here's the best of the best Crimson Tide-related news from around the interwebs over the past few days to help you deal with the next few days. At least until you can start concentrating on the Arkansas game in earnest.

That works out to about $12,500 a minute: So what did the University of North Texas gain from the 53-7 beatdown in Bryant-Denny Stadium over the weekend? $750,000. The payout is the largest for the three non-conference games this season, according to Gentry Estes. Florida International raked in $650,000 for the Sept. 12 contest and UT-Chattanooga has been promised $400,000 for the upcoming game on Nov. 21.

Crimson Tide players in the spotlight: Star Jackson, Javier Arenas and Terrence Cody get some of that sportswriter love over the weekend.

Academic honors: Alabama athletes are graduating at a 70% rate - six percent better than the general student body. The football squad's 75% graduation rate is better than the overall rate for athletes, but down from 80% mark reached in recent years. Among academic All-Americans, Alabama student-athletes rank 11th nationally and fifth among NCAA Division I schools.

The rich get richer: The SEC raked in a whopping $161.6 million in revenue last year, a full 8% over 2007. And this is without the new 15-year, $3-billion TV deals with ESPN and CBS. But while the conference doled out between $10.7 and $11.7 million to each member schools the Big Ten forked over $14 million to each of its schools.

Party like it's 1989: The 1989 Alabama football squad was honored at halftime of the North Texas game on Saturday. The team went 10-2 and won the SEC championship (but lost to national champion Miami in the Sugar Bowl). Veterans of the squad include Siran Stacy, Gary Hollingsworth John Mangum and Efrum Thomas.

Credit where credit is due: The NFL season kicked off this year with no less than 47 former LSU players on the pro rosters, a record for the school. The Bayou Bengals Blog then noted that while the school noted that current HC Les Miles coached about half of those players it failed to mention that more than 70% of them were signed under former coach Nick Saban. HT Bama Sports Report

Alabama beats Auburn: There is no better way to start the week.

Game Day: September 19

Year2 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 19:00:18 -0000

A rundown of what's on TV.

a.k.a. 11 AM Central

Best Game: Boston College at Clemson, Raycom

The Eagles were supposed to fold this year after losing their coach, two quarterbacks, and Mark Herzlich. Instead, they've blown out their cupcakes in a more authoritative fashion than just about any other ACC team has performed against overmatched opponents. This is their first real test against a Clemson team that gave Georgia Tech a great game last week.

Prediction: BC keeps it interesting for a while, but eventually wears down in the heat. Clemson wins, 27-24.

Next Best Game: Cal at Minnesota, ESPN

This game is kicking off at 9:00 Pacific, and the last time the Bears did that, they suffered an inexplicable loss at Maryland last season. Jeff Tedford had them leave a day early for Minnesota to combat any jet lag. Minnesota meanwhile has played two close games, edging out Syracuse and Air Force. Perhaps the time and a little Gopher magic will make this one close too?

Prediction: It will take some time for Cal to wake up, but once it does, Minnesota is toast. Cal wins 38-14.

SEC Games

Louisville at Kentucky, ESPNU: join the Wildcats in their new annual tradition of beating down the Cardinals.

North Texas at Alabama, SEC Network: the Tide won't start slow again this week.

Best Game: Nebraska at Virginia Tech, ABC, 3:30 ET

This one has the best combination of overall quality and closeness of competition. Nebraska could make a big statement by winning this one on the road, while VT is looking to avoid a 1-2 start.

Prediction: The mystical Blacksburg Vortex of Mediocrity swallows the Cornhuskers upon arrival, forcing them to inexplicably play below their potential like so many visiting teams that play there. Tech wins a slugfest 19-17.

Next Best Game: Tennessee at Florida, CBS, 3:30 ET

This one is the next best solely because of the story lines. From a football standpoint, it should be ugly and over before halftime. Several teams last year hoped great defense would overcome bad offense and keep them in games against Florida. Most went home losers with scores like 42-14, 56-6, and 63-5. Even if you ignore the subplots and focus on football, Tennessee should get waxed.

Prediction: Tennessee keeps it close for a quarter, but the dam breaks in the second. Florida rolls 52-3.

Honorable Mentions

There are no other SEC games besides the CBS Game of the Week, but these could be interesting enough to take a look at if you get bored with the above two games.

Michigan State at Notre Dame, NBC, 3:30

USC at Washington, ABC, 3:30 (not sure, but this might be on your ESPN2 if you get Neb-VT on ABC)

Utah at Oregon, ESPN, 3:30 ET

Best Game: Georgia at Arkansas, ESPN, 7:45 ET

One week they're a low scoring defensive team. The next, they're a high scoring no defense team. Anyone know which Georgia team will show up against Arkansas? I'd sure like to know. This is also the first test for the Razorbacks, who got some love for their offense in the preseason. Bobby Petrino versus Mark Richt. Rennie Curran versus Michael Smith. There's a lot to like in this game.

Prediction: Georgia plays tough, but Arkansas end up outscoring the Bulldogs 31-27.

Next Best Game: Texas Tech at Texas, ABC, 8:00 ET

I personally think Tech is better than everyone is giving them credit for right now, and that they'll give a surprisingly uptight Texas team a run for their money. I don't think the Red Raiders will win, mind you, but they'll make the Longhorns sweat and it's always interesting when Mike Leach is around.

Prediction: Texas Tech keeps pace with Texas for three quarters, at which point the Longhorns will pull away 42-30.

Honorable Mention: West Virginia at Auburn, ESPN2, 7:45

I really don't think West Virginia is as good as most people think, but at the same time, this is the first pretty good team Auburn has played. If the Tigers have even 70% the success they've had in their first two games running the ball, this one will be over quickly.

Prediction: Auburn will start slowly as it figures out West Virginia will push them back pretty hard. Eventually they'll get rolling and outlast the Mountaineers 26-17.

Other SEC Games

UL-Lafayette at LSU, ESPNU, 7:00 ET: you'll laugh indeed as LSU finally lets it rip against someone and wins big.

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt, FSN Regional, 7:00 ET: this one ends up more high scoring than you think, but Vandy takes it.

SELA at Ole Miss, CSS, 7:30 ET: there's no reason to watch this bloodbath unless you're a Rebel fan.

Honorable Mentions

The televised night games all suck, so I won't even go so far as to call one the "best game." The only one between two Big Six teams is Kansas State at UCLA, but that's not even remotely interesting. If you need football to be on your TV, go with Hawai'i at UNLV (MTN/CBS College Sports) at 11:00 ET, because James Bates is calling the game and he's a hoot.

For Entertainment Purposes Only- Previewing College Football's 3rd week

FSUncensored — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 04:32:26 -0000

Note: We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead. The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences. Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams. Think of this as your weekend primer!

Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only! Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners. Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200. No odds went against our decisions. Then we went over season win totals. Vegas set the number, we called it over or under! In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Last week we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units. For the season, we sit at 59-46 (56%), +10.02 Units. If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated. We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance. The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100. It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.

While last week's theme was "hangovers, lookaheads, and letdowns", this week is all about getting the right number. Inside, we'll discuss just about every college football game on the slate.

As the season goes on, it's very important to jump on numbers as they are released by vegas. As you will see, there is a ton of movement from Sunday night (when they come out) to gametime. If I grabbed a line on Sunday, I noted it, and posted it in last week's column to alert the true degenerates among us.

This week starts off with an ACC battle. Tonight, Georgia Tech travels to Miami. The Canes have had 10 days to prepare for this game, while GTech has had only 7. Tech's defense didn't impress against Clemson, and their offense seemed a bit out of synch. The real key to this should be Miami's freakish defensive tackle pair in Marcus Forston and Allen Bailey. This opened at GT @ Mia -3 and that's where we popped it. It currently sits at -5.5

Then Friday we have a wacky WAC battle. I snagged Fresno State at +12 hosting Boise because the number seemed high. The line has since been bet down to -7.5, and 7 in some places. I really don't have much opinion on these teams, other than to say that Boise is probably getting a bit too much credit for dismantling an Oregon team with 4 new offensive line starters. With that said, I am coming back and grabbing the Boise -7 and trying for a middle.

Some asked me to order the games by start time instead of rotation # (vegas reference number). You guys make the call, so here we go:

NOON

A bad Ball State team travels to face Army. Huah! I grabbed the -6.5 points with our nation's defenders, and then later in the week played Ball State +8. Trying for the middle.
Boston College travels to Clemson. I don't believe in BC and as you know, I think Clemson is quite possibly the ACC's best team. This line opened at -7 and that's where I bet it (fake wager, of course ;). It's now available at -6.5 pretty much everywhere. I also like Under 45 as Clemson has an elite level defense.
Joe-Public Alert! I'm on the Cal bandwagon and am not a believer in Minnesota. A friend tipped me that Cal will be arriving Thursday, to adjust for the timezone difference after having a scare last year at Maryland. I grabbed Cal -13.5 Sunday night, and I'll stick with that.
Duke @ Kansas. Everyone loves Kansas here, so be careful if you bet the Jayhawks. Personally, I'll be on Duke if the line hits 24. Otherwise, this is a pass. I'll update it in the comment section.
The East Carolina Pirates travel to face the North Carolina Tarheels. UNC has some injury issues and while I don't really buy this ECU team, I suspect UNC could be looking ahead to GTech next week. The plays are ECU +7.5 and Under 42.
Eastern Michigan travels to play Michigan. The Wolverines are laying 24. I'm waiting for 24.5 and will probably play EMU.
In a rivalry where one team clearly wants it more than their opponent, Louisville is at Kentucky. I feel Kentucky is slightly overrated and will gladly take Louisville +14.5. Also, UK has UF next weekend, so there is the possible lookahead angle as well, though not a big one.
Purdue is fresh off their west coast trip and are hosting a decent Northern Illinois club. NIU is currently getting 13, which isn't enough against a Purdue team that may be surprising some folks, but if this hits +14, I am on NIU. INJURY Note: NIU returns their leading tackler and excellent safety in this game. He missed the first 2.
Ohio State, fresh off their poorly coached choke job loss to USC has to travel to Cleveland and play a very game Toledo team. This came out at +22.5, but I missed it, and grabbed the Rockets at +21.
Snoozefest: Temple @ Penn State. Temple is slightly better than horrible, and I am waiting until they hit +32 to take the Owls. Sorry for the lack of analysis here.

Now on to the 3:30 games. Okay Degenerates, run down to the nearest Winn-Dixie to grab $500 worth of pre-paid western union cards and call Costa Rica We have games to hit.

I like Iowa -5 hosting an Arizona team coming cross country. Some trepidation here because Iowa is off a rivalry game, but ultimately I think Zona misses some of their graduates more than they have shown.
Akron is favored by 4 over Indiana. Most will balk at this and take the Big10 team, but Indiana couldn't win the Mac, conference USA, or even the Sun Belt. Evaluate the players and the coaches, not the names on the jersey, and take Akron -4.
I don't like this Michigan State team and Notre Dame at home seems like a good bet laying the -10.
Nebraska travels to face Virginia Tech in what should be a great battle. I grabbed VTech -2.5 Sunday night, and yesterday played Nebraska +5. I don't know what happens here, other than to say I really like what Nebraska does on offense, and hope VTech wins by 3 or 4.
I'm pasing on Tenn @ Florida, and I'd advise you to do the same. If this hits +31.5 or more, I will probably take Tennessee, but this spread is a bit crazy.
Tulsa travels to face Oklahoma. Interesting test for OU. Last week they waxed a terrible Idaho State team, but everyone could do that. This means a lot to Tulsa. Did you know that Tulsa has the smallest undergrad enrollment of any D1 school? I grabbed Oklahoma at -14 on Sunday expecting a big move, and now will play Tulsa +17.5 hoping for a nice middle opportunity.
This one I am proud of, and I got a bit lucky. Washington is better than people think, and when I saw that USC was -22.5 in Washington, I had to snag the Huskies +22.5 Now we learn that Barkley is out. USC could go down here, but even if they don't, UW should give them a game. USC has all kinds of motivational and attrition factors working against them right now. NOTE: if this gets to USC -17, I will play the Trojans and try for the middle. Remember, secure profits and limit exposure.
While I accurately predicted the movement of some lines, I missed on some others. Typically, you shouldn't take a game just for speculative line movement purposes. I did so here, taking Utah +5 @ Oregon, thinking that the game would get bet down to +3 or +2 and I'd have a middle opportunity. That hasn't happened. So to counteract my initial outlay, I am betting Oregon -5 twice, essentially leaving me with one Oregon -5 wager, and paying a higher premium than I'd prefer for some less than perfect prognostication.
Virginia is terrible, and if Southern Miss runs the table they will be in the BCS. Golden Eagles -15.5 is the play.
I snagged Wyoming @ Colorado -7 Sunday night. Not feeling this one so much now but am gonna ride it out.

7Pm Conte$t$ and beyond!

Everyone loves Cincinnati this weekend at Oregon State. I like the beavers +1 because of the travel aspect, their NFL caliber QB, and HC Mike RIley's ability to get his defense going. This is a can't-miss game for football fans. DVR this game.
San Diego State shouldn't be laying points to anyone on a long road trip. Gimme Idaho +3.5
Sunday Night Gem: Nevada -1 over Colorado State. It's now at -3 or -4, but I'll stick with the -1.
Buffalo has to travel to Florida to face UCF? Call me a square but gimme UCF -4.
South Carolina is hosting FAU. I like FAU a lot, but won't play them unless I can find +21.5 (okay, I might go for +21).
As much as I hate trusting my money with Dave Wandstedt, I'll lay the -7 with the Panthers over Navy.
Oklahoma State will be motivated to blow Rice out, but Rice +32.5 is a bit steep for them, so the Owls it is.
Fresh off their near upset win over Missouri, Bowling Green should have a hangover effect. They get the deliverance treatment at the hands of Marshall +3.
FSU @ BYU. I took FSU +7.5 and feel confident here. Rarely do I bet on FSU, and often go against them because I think they are overrated due to talent and name. Many of our readers don't like that but this column is about objective predictions. People think vegas wants to balance the action on both sides of the ledger, but This isn't actually true. In a perfect world, it would be, but key numbers distort this notion. Vegas routinely takes positions, particularly on big games. Why would they not move USC to -7.5 last week? Because they felt more comfortable with square USC money than sharp OSU $. Vegas is taking a position. They'd rather hold a hugely disproportional amount of BYU money at -7 than to be stuck with FSU money at +10 (from professionals). I happen to think they believe BYU is very good, but FSU is much better than the public thinks (rather than FSU being bad and BYU being overrated). But they are definitely saying one team is better than the public thinks, or one team is worse than the public thinks, or maybe some combination of both. Typically top 7 teams are favored by 2 TD's or more against an unranked foe. Heck, unranked Tennessee was giving 10 points to UCLA last weekend. This line is a judgement on both programs, and it's a positive for FSU.
LSU -27 over Louisiana Lafayette. Last week I called for Lafayette to beat Kansas State outright. This week they get pasted by the Tigers.
Mississippi State +8 @ Vanderbilt. I don't really know why I took this Sunday night. I can't read my notes in the margin. Both are just bad SEC teams. Oh, and Vanderbilt just got racked by injuries and Miss St. gets some kids back from suspension. I'm not sure either team will score 8 points.
I hate to do it, but SMU shouldn't be laying a TD on the road. Washington State +7, even without any cornerbacks or decent players. Praying for the push.
Snagged Texas A&M -17 Sunday night, but hoping to see Utah State get to -21 so I can try for the middle.
Northwestern -3 @ Syracuse. I went against NW last week and won. This time I am backing the Wildcats. The Cuse are beat up after playing Penn State.
Air Force is at New Mexico +17.5 Air Force is without both starting corners (suspension/ injury), and their top receiver. They'll score, but New Mexico should be able to keep up in the desert.
Iowa State is hungover from thier blowout rivalry loss (sound familiar Nole fans??), and will lose to Kent State. Kent +3.
Miami (OH) +17 and WMich -16? Yeah, I hit it Sunday night but have since bet the other side to essentially get off the game. Hope for a 16 or 17 point victory and the win/push result.
Georgia travels to the Ozarks to face Arkansas. I snagged the Razorbacks at +1.5 Sunday evening, and the line has since moved a bit. I am sticking with the pick and don't think much of UGA's defensive coordinator. I also played Over 53.5
West Virginia travels to Auburn for the Tiger's first real test. Gimme the Mountaineers +7 here. Aub is slightly overrated, as they run so many plays that it gives the perception of offensive greatness. I'm not buying it yet.
Texas is -17 hosting TTech. I don't love the play, but TTech should be a bit down, the game is in Austin, and I look for UT to play a bit better than last year. Revenge game.
UTep rolls into NMSU in what should be an awesome offensive battle. I want NMSU +14, but won't take anything less unless some weird injury news pops.
Kansas State. What a bad team. I called the upset last week of Louisiana Lafayatte beating them, and it happened. But this week UCLA has serious injury issues and I like KState getting +12.5 in LA.
ULM is playing at Arizona State. AZST is at UGA next week. if this lines hits 21 or more, jump ULM. Can you say lookahead?
UNLV -6 hosting Hawaii? Yeah, gimme the boys in Vegas. That's back to back road trips for Hawaii.
Stanford -19 is a very good football team and they should take care of San Jose State.

So, what say you? Ready for this weekend of college football? What games do you like? Which don't you like? I have to admit, this is my favorite weekly column to write for you, the fan. I love Vegas because they don't overreact and alter their perception of a team based on one or two games, or a close win or loss. It's a valuable lesson many fans could learn. Remember to check back in the comment section to see any additional fake wagers being added.

Interview With Andy Schmitt, Starting Quarterback for Eastern Michigan

grahamfiller10 — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:00:28 -0000

Unless you're a Northwestern fan, you haven't seen or heard much about Andy Schmitt lately. But this senior quarterback has been thrust into the Big Ten spotlight after nearly leading Eastern Michigan to an upset win over heavily favored Northwestern. Not content with one game in the Big Ten limelight, Schmitt will lead his Eagles into Ann Arbor this Saturday to face the resurgent Michigan Wolverines. I talked with Andy about the NW comeback, preparing for Michigan's secondary, and his transformation into more of a pocket passer.

Hi Andy, I appreciate you taking this time to talk with me.

No problem.

I want to keep this short because it's late and you've probably got practice and classes, but tell me about Saturday's comeback against Northwestern. You were seconds away from upsetting a solid Northwestern team.

It's fine, I don't have class until 11. I think we took a lot of confidence from that game. After the disappointment in week 1 against Army, we came out and moved the ball right away in the first half. The run blocking was great but the penalties were killing; we were stopping ourselves and the interception hurt, did you see the play that guy made? So at halftime, we just discussed continuing doing what we were doing.

And the offense came out and methodically drove down the field for three touchdowns. Using the run game to comeback is a different method, especially against a big Northwestern team that I consider maybe the 4th or 5th best Big Ten team.

Yeah they were disciplined and definitely looked the part. We've made some big steps this year since the Army game though.

Now you switch focus onto the Michigan Wolverines. Have you done your film study of Michigan already?

We've been up there watching film. We'll see what the coaches have drawn up for a game plan.

Because of the Notre Dame win, there has been a lot of focus on Ann Arbor lately. How do you prepare for the spotlight, 110,000 screaming fans, etc?

First practice tomorrow and we know all about the hype. Most of the guys have played at Michigan though (ed note: 33-22 UM win in 2007), so it's not that big of a deal.

Tell me what (first year Eastern Michigan head coach and former Michigan defensive coordinator) Ron English brings to the team. Everyone remembers his intensity at Michigan.

Intensity is right. He's also very detail oriented, we pay a lot of attention to details.

Now this is a perfect question for you. Michigan played a lot of one-on-one coverage last week and got torn up by Notre Dame. Are they going to adjust and put a safety over the top? It seemed like the corners were on an island a lot.

Well, Jimmy Clausen is a great quarterback and so it wasn't that bad. But Michigan plays a lot of coverage's, they throw out zone, you're going to see some different stuff.

So you're telling me they will give safety help on Saturday?

Oh yeah, they have all kinds of coverage plans.

You got a lot of attention with the NCAA records last year. (Ed Note: Schmitt set NCAA Single Game records for completions (58) and attempts (80), not to mention attempting the most passes in a game without an interception (76)). What did you carry over from last year and what did you have to leave behind because of a new coaching staff?

I was groomed as a scrambler, to drop back and make things happen with my legs. And so last year, I would make go out and scramble around. This year, I'm trying to be more patient and let the offensive system work instead. I work on throwing the ball away more and understanding that five yards is a great gain for short passes. It's a process of transforming from a scrambler to an all round pocket passer.

...Which must be a challenge because you were more of a runner in high school. Thanks so much for your time and good luck this week against Michigan.

Thanks a lot.

Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC

T Kyle King — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:59:15 -0000

My 5-0 record in last week’s conference picks brought my season-long ledger to 15-1, which might be taken as a sign of skill on my part. The more likely explanation is that league teams have been playing patsies and even a broken clock is right twice a day, so I would caution you, as always: Don’t Bet On It!

Here are this week’s SEC games:

North Texas Mean Green at Alabama Crimson Tide: Typically, I start each week’s set of conference prognostications with the weakest game involving a league team, and this one certainly qualifies. Yes, Ole Miss is playing a Division I-AA opponent, but the Red Elephants apparently are taking on the fictitious team from "Necessary Roughness," and I’m pretty sure both Sinbad and Scott Bakula have exhausted their eligibility by now. Unless Kathy Ireland is going to boot more field goals this week than Spencer Lanning, I think ’Bama is the way to go here.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions at Mississippi Rebels: Walk me through the math on this one, folks. Ole Miss opens the season on a Sunday with a September 6 road trip to Memphis, takes the following week off, hosts a team that is a second-tier wannabe even by Pelican State standards (which is saying something) following said open date, then travels to South Carolina for a Thursday night date in Columbia on September 24. The fellow in charge of the Rebs’ scheduling is doing his job approximately as well as Kyle MacLachlan’s agent was when he committed his client to appear in "Showgirls." Mississippi will win but will be unable to justify having played this game in the first place.

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at LSU Tigers: This weekend, Baton Rouge will play host to the Ragin’ Cajuns. How is that statement not redundant? I have been increasingly less impressed with the Bayou Bengals, but do you believe ULaLa is going to beat BCS conference opponents on back-to-back weekends? Me, neither. Louisiana State may win ugly, but win the Fighting Tigers will. (I don’t know what it is with me lately. First, I sounded like Bilbo Baggins at his birthday party; then, in the last sentence prior to this parenthetical aside, sounded like Yoda I did.)

Florida Atlantic Owls at South Carolina Gamecocks: If Mike Slive agreed to host a black-tie fundraiser for the Sun Belt Conference, would that enable SEC teams to get out of scheduling crummy games like this one? Even the name of their conference recalls images from the ‘70s of leisure suits and wide white belts and wider neckties and collars the size and shape of Ginsu knives, of retirees boasting leathery tans hitting the highways in RVs while inspiring some of Tom Wolfe’s most prescient essays and some of Walker Percy’s most dated ones. I’m for booting every last sad sack one of them right back down to Division I-AA where they belong and declaring a league-wide moratorium on scheduling any of them. Until that great day arrives, though, games like this battle of the birds are going to continue, alas, and this particular avian affray will go to the team whose mascot has razor-sharp spurs on his heels as the Gamecocks demonstrate that the Owls are not what they seem.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores: The gap between these two teams is huge. I am, of course, referring to SAT scores; athletically, this should be a pretty competitive game. As reclamation projects go, Vandy is farther along under Bobby Johnson than MSU is under Dan Mullen, so I’m giving the edge to the home team as the ’Dores host the ‘Dogs.

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats: These in-state rivals took a 70-year break from playing one another between 1924 and 1994. Really, wasn’t that for the best for all concerned? Honestly, it’s all right with the rest of us if both of these fan bases stop pretending they care about football. Still, if they insist upon playing this game (if only to distract themselves from Rick Pitino’s and John Calipari’s various ways of getting caught cheating), you should be forewarned that Kentucky is going to emerge victorious.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers: As I understand it, this game was arranged as part of a promotional campaign. The first 25,000 fans to show up with a marriage license and a pair of birth certificates to prove they’re married to their cousins get in free. The last time this many inbred hillbillies got together in one place, Burt Reynolds and Ronny Cox had to save Ned Beatty’s behind . . . literally. Although both teams are shadows of their former selves, the game is being played in the so-called Loveliest Village (which, to be fair, probably looks lovely to someone from Morgantown), so I’m going with the Plainsmen.

Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators: If you’re reading this, I’m pretty sure you’ve already read this, but, if you haven’t, go read it, because it’s all the reason you would ever need to know that the Sunshine State Saurians are going to win this game and cover the point spread. I have enough faith in the fundamental order of the universe to believe that, in the end, Good will triumph over Evil, but, in the meantime, Evil will triumph over Dumbass.

These, at any rate, are the outcomes that seem probable to me, so I should hasten to add that, my early season success notwithstanding, I am bad at forecasting football games, which is why I invariably add a disclaimer which I would urge you to heed: Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

3k's Eyes on the Prize - College Football Week 1

3k — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:56:34 -0000

Time to get my eyes on the prize - the young studs that annually replenish the NFL with talent... and holdouts. There are some great games this weekend and some not so good ones. I'll throw in a quick recap of last night's action too with enough links to make your eyes water.

While I'm on the subject of blurry vision, LeGarette Blount may have seen his team embarassed in Boise and may have seen his draft stock plummet in a single night, but his stock as a boxer may have risen high. Especially if he continues to go after guys while they're not watching. Check out the evidence after the ad:

I think the Raiders may have found an option for their backfield.

Prizes after the fold.

NOTE: Rankings are taken from the AP poll. All times are central time zone.

Thursday recap

- North Texas @ Ball St., 20-10: This was a huge win for the Mean Green. To go into Muncie after posting a 1-11 season with so many games against the basement of college football, the Sun Belt conference, against a Ball St. team that went 12-0 last season (even if they lost QB Nate Davis and OT Robert Brewster to the NFL) and win is the kind of turnaround the Rams could enjoy with a win at Seattle in week 1. UNT QB Riley Dodge, who spurned Texas to play at UNT for his dad, head coach Todd Dodge, looked like, well, a respectable college QB in the first game of his redshirt freshman campaign; senior RB Cam Montgomery looked studly, racking up 149 yards on just 17 carries. Dodge's and Montgomery's play took the spotlight away from the one legitimate draft prospect going into the game, Ball St. senior RB MiQuale Lewis, who finished with just over 100 yards on 15 carries and a TD.

- South Carolina @ North Carolina St., 7-3: I'm so glad I didn't watch this one. I've got two prospects from these two teams on my radar: Senior SC OLB Eric Norwood (who racked up 2 sacks last night) and NC St.'s senior DE Willie Young. Might have been nice to evaluate these two defenders, but not against offenses as weak as this.

- GAME OF THE NIGHT: #14 Boise St. vs. #16 Oregon, 19-8: The story from this game will be the Blount fallout, but Boise St.'s defense was absolutely dominant. The Broncos allowed just 31 rushing yard to one of the most respected ground games in the country. Blount was in the top tier of RB prospects in what looks like a VERY weak draft for RBs. With him out of the mix for a while, I'll be watching two other Oregon seniors: CB Walter Thurmond (who I mentioned on this week's Turf Show Radio), and TE Ed Dickson. On to Saturday's action...

Saturday prizes

I've got four games I'll be checking in on throughout the day:

- #9t Oklahoma St. vs. #13 Georgia (2:30PM, ABC): Oklahoma St. hopes the opening of the recently renovated Boone Pickens Stadium doesn't end up being a sad day in the record books. The Cowboys are ranked higher than they ever have been in the preseason rankings, and this game has gotten as much hype as an opener possibly can. Few teams can boast an offensive quartet as talented as OSU's: QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, WR/RET Dez Bryant and OT Russell Okung. They could all come out in the draft and go in the 1st round. Scary thought, though I don't think Robinson will go until the middle of the draft. Georgia boasts one of the best DT tandems in the country in Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens. Of course, the NFL Draft will be the last thing on nearly everyone's mind on Saturday. OSU is trying to kickstart a run to the Big 12 Championship while Georgia is trying to open the post-StaffordMoreno era with a big non-conference win in Stillwater. For the Bulldogs, Senior QB Joe Cox will try to go to standout soph WR A.J. Green as much as possible, since their running back committee is one member short given the hamstring injury to Caleb King. Oklahoma St. will lean on the talents they boast on offense to make the crowd a factor early.

Kdiction: OSU 27, Georgia 10

- #3 Oklahoma vs. #20 BYU (6:00PM, ESPN - neutral site): Oklahoma comes to Dallas for a huge opener, just not the biggest game of the college football season, to play Brigham Young in Jerry Jones' wet dream-turned-temple. Oklahoma will be without the best TE in college football, Jermaine Gresham, who will miss several games with a knee injury. Still, with Sam Bradford at the helm making the most of OT Trent Williams' blocking, and the tandem of DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown (the one who beats defenses, not women), BYU will have its hands full. The Cougars have a TE prospect for the NFL themselves in Dennis Pitta, so there's still some talent at the position for the draftniks in this one. From a Rams perspective, one guy I'll be watching is DT DeMarcus Granger; Granger could be a solid mid-round pick for the Rams who I hope are thinking of DTs they can bring on to replace a certain permanently injured lineman whose name I don't feel like typing.

Kdiction: Oklahoma 42, BYU 13

- #5 Alabama vs. #7 Virginia Tech (7:00PM, ABC - neutral site): The lowest average ranking of the two teams of any game this weekend, just having this battle scheduled is a joy for college football fans. This is the kind of non-conference game I wish we had more of every season. They'll both head to Atlanta to open their seasons in the Georgia Dome in front of what will be a rabid crowd. I mentioned CB Javier Arenas on TSR (as well as my mancrush, WR Julio Jones), but keep an eye on DT Terrence Cody as well. If Spags has an inkling of moving to a 3-4, Cody is the mountain of a man (hovering around 400 lbs.) you want at NT. Tech will be without their sophomore rushing star Darren Evans all season, so they're going to need to prove they can still move the ball against the one of the better defenses in the country. I'll be interested in CB Stephan Virgil who also handles some return duties.

Kdiction: Alabama 24, Va. Tech 14

- #11 LSU @ Washington (9:30PM, ESPN): I've got this one on here not so much for Washington who might have a couple guys find their way to the NFL as undrafted pickups (except for a certain junior), but for LSU who is loaded with talent. The top two prospects from the Tigers are easily identifiable: WR Brandon LaFell and OT Ciron Black. Both could end up as first round picks. LSU is coming off an incredibly disappointing season, so I'm sure they want to get things moving in the right direction this year. Now for that mystery junior I referenced -- Washington QB Jake Locker. Locker has everything you want in a QB prospect... except talented targets. After a stellar freshman effort, Locker injured his thumb last year, so it will be interesting to see how he begins the 2009 season. Locker's also a highly-touted baseball prospect, so he might not end up in the NFL. Nevertheless, his talent demands scrutiny this season and in this game to see if he can make diamonds out of dirt.

Kdiction: LSU 38, Washington 18

So what are you interested in yakking for tomorrow? Is it certain games? Matchups in those games? And are you interested in specific prospects or positions? Holler.

Future Foe Scenarios: A Weekly Glance at the Crimson Tide Schedule

Todd — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:00:17 -0000

During the season we're going to start keeping a cursory eye on the entire schedule to help us both better judge our own strength relative to the performances of our past opponents (a la the Clemson win last year looking less and less impressive as the weeks wore on) and how the teams on the rest of the schedule are performing as well. Since no one has played a game yet this week's edition will be a little skimpy, but future editions will have the benefit of game results, emerging playmakers, injury issues, and the like. I will also not be including UT-Chattanooga in this thing for obvious reasons. Without further ado:

***

WEEK ONE

Virginia Tech - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #7 * Coaches - #7 * BlogPoll - #9

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	174.36	35	3
Passing Offense	129.07	111	11
Passing Efficiency	108.12	99	10
Scoring Offense	22.07	90	8
Total Offense	303.43	103	11
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	104.43	14	2
Passing Defense	175.00	16	5
Passing Eff. Defense	112.68	28	5
Sacks	2.50	26 (T)	3
Tackles for Loss	6.43	37	6
Scoring Defense	16.71	9	1
Total Defense	279.43	7	2

Key Players
Offense:

Tyrod Taylor - QB

With the unfortunate loss of Darren Evans to injury during fall camp, the offense is now squarely on the shoulders of junior QB Tyrod Taylor. Though he's an athletic player that can make defenses pay with his feet (7 rushing TDs last year to 2 passing), Taylor has been inconsistent over the past two years due to injury concerns and has rotated in and out with Sean Glennon his whole career. With Glennon having graduated, it's all up to Taylor now. Two factors will make or break his season: 1) Can he stay healthy? and 2) can the skill positions finally give him some help?

WR Jarrett Boykin

Jarrett Boykin - WR

Last year's leading receiver as a freshman, Boykin caught 30 passes for 441 yards and 2 TDs. If he can step up this season and provide more consistency (along with fellow sophomores Danny Coale and Dyrell Roberts) for Taylor then the Hokies might actually add "passing" to their offensive philosophy.

Defense:

Stephan Virgil - CB

With Macho Harris in the NFL, it's up to Virgil to fill his hard hitting shoes. Virgil finsished last season with 6 INTs (tied Harris for the most) and will keep the Hokie pass D as dangerous as ever.

Cody Grimm - LB

3rd on the team in tackles last year and tied for second in sacks, the awesomely named Grimm is the only returning starter at LB for the Hokies.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Alabama (Georgia Dome)
09/12	vs Marshall
09/19	vs Nebraska
09/26	vs Miami (FL)
10/03	at Duke
10/10	vs Boston College
10/17	at Georgia Tech
10/29	vs North Carolina
11/05	at East Carolina
11/14	at Maryland
11/21	vs NC State
11/28	at Virginia

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Starting the season against a quality BCS opponent like Virginia Tech has three built in advantages for the Crimson Tide:

1. It gives the team a real goal to work towards in the offseason

If the repetition and drudgery of fall camp isn't bad enough, imagine doing all that work just to face off against Charleston Southern. With an opponent like Virginia Tech coming right off it gives the team that much more of a sense of urgency in their preparations.

2. National Exposure

This is arguably the biggest game of the first weekend and a win immediately catapults whoever comes out on top into the "dark horse" national title contender conversation. A loss here doesn't necessarily end the Tide's season since a one loss SEC champion has a pretty good shot at making the MNC game anyway, but a win here goes a long way towards answering the more frequent criticisms of the Tide's chances. If we can knock off a quality squad like the Hokies with our rebuilt line and inexperienced QB, imagine what we can do after a few weeks of real live game experience?

3. Quality Game Experience

Saban is very fond of talking about how the only way to really know what sort of team you have is testing them against the best opponents, and facing off against a team that is as hard nosed on defense as Va. Tech is will pay huge dividends as far as gaining game experience goes for our offense, while dealing with a mobile QB that forces you to account for his feet on defense can't hurt a unit that is certainly licking their chops at the prospect of one more shot at Tebow.

***

Florida International - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	98.67	107	8
Passing Offense	218.25	56	5
Passing Efficiency	125.82	58	4
Scoring Offense	24.67	68	5
Total Offense	316.92	96	8
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	156.17	80	4
Passing Defense	212.92	67	4
Passing Eff. Defense	121.34	52	3
Sacks	1.50	89	4
Tackles for Loss	6.75	21 (T)	3
Scoring Defense	28.33	79	4
Total Defense	369.08	71	4

Key Players
Offense:

WR T.Y. Hilton

Paul McCall - QB

McCall led the Golden Panthers to their only win in his lone start in 2007 and guided them to a much improved 5-7 last year finished the season with 2,332 yards and 15 TDs as a full time starter last year without much help from the ground game. All five starters are back on the offensive line and the top five pass catchers from last year are all back.

T.Y. Hilton - WR

As a freshman, Hilton finished the year with 1,013 yards receiving, a team high seven TDs, and was named Sun Belt Freshman of the Year.

Defense:

Anthony Gaitor - CB

An all conference selection last year as a sophomore, Gaitor grabbed 5 INTs and returned two of them for scores.

Scott Bryant - LB

The team's leading tackler last year, Bryant was an honorable mention all conference selection and will help anchor a front seven that is thin on experience, especially on the line.

Schedule:

09/12	at Alabama
09/19	at Rutgers
09/26	vs Toledo
10/03	at Louisiana-Monroe
10/10	at Western Kentucky
10/17	vs Troy
10/24	at Arkansas State
10/31	vs Louisiana-LaFayette
11/07	at Middle Tennessee State
11/14	vs North Texas
11/21	at Florida
12/05	vs Florida Atlantic

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

In games like these, wins don't mean much but losses are unforgivable. The most we can take out of this game really depends on how well we do against Va. Tech. If we beat the Hokies and then limp along half heartedly against FIU, then that says bad things about our team, just like a loss to the Hokies and then a middling performance against FIU would. If we come out and dominate what should be a pretty woefully outmatched Golden Panther team no matter what the outcome of the Va. Tech game, then we know the team has bought in and is giving it all on every down.

***

North Texas - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	127.33	82	6
Passing Offense	235.67	44	4
Passing Efficiency	111.13	94	8
Scoring Offense	20.00	102	8
Total Offense	363.00	57	5
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	207.08	105	6
Passing Defense	275.50	115	8
Passing Eff. Defense	164.87	118	8
Sacks	1.00	112 (T)	7
Tackles for Loss	4.42	111	8
Scoring Defense	47.58	119	8
Total Defense	482.58	119	8

Key Players
Offense:

Cam Montgomery - RB

Running behind an offensive line that returns all five starters, Montgomery, who rushed for 928 yards and 9 TDs last season, is about the only proven commodity for North Texas on offense.

Riley Dodge - QB

A redshirt freshman (and the coach's son), Dodge is a former Longhorns commit that could possibly bring a much needed spark to the Mean Green passing game.

Defense:

Tobe Nwigwe - LB

With a defense that finished at or near dead last in the country in every major category, the Mean Green need someone, anyone, to step up on that side of the ball. SR linebacker Nwigwe led the team last year with 111 tackles and three INTs. He leads a linebacking corps that returns all three starters, but with only one starter back on the line it remains to be seen if they can improve on last year's performance.

Schedule:

09/03	at Ball State
09/12	vs Ohio
09/19	at Alabama
09/26	vs Middle Tennessee State
10/10	at Lousiana-LaFayette
10/17	vs Florida Atlantic
10/24	at Troy
10/31	vs Western Kentucky
11/07	vs Louisiana-Monroe
11/14	at FIU
11/21	vs Army
11/28	at Arkansas State

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Like FIU, the Mean Green aren't much more than an extra home game to keep the revenues up. Also like FIU, we can judge how far the team has come along by their performance here. If we come out and dominate early on and never let up, then you know the team is clicking and on the right page. If we come out flat and scrape by...

***

Arkansas - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	113.50	97	10
Passing Offense	259.58	23	2
Passing Efficiency	122.19	68	5
Scoring Offense	21.92	91	7
Total Offense	373.08	49	4
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	170.75	90	12
Passing Defense	204.42	54	10
Passing Eff. Defense	127.26	62	12
Sacks	2.08	50	7
Tackles for Loss	5.75	58	7
Scoring Defense	31.17	93	12
Total Defense	375.17	72	12

Key Players
Offense:

Michael Smith - RB

Following in the extremely large footsteps of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, Smith made a big splash for the Hogs as a 1,000 yard rusher and the SEC leader in all purpose yardage.

Ryan Mallett - QB

A Michigan transfer, much of the Hogs hopes for the season rest on his shoulders. Though Petrino was able to get more out of Casey and Nathan Dick as QBs than Houston Nutt ever did, they weren't the pocket passer types that typically thrive in his offense. Mallett is, though, and with a redshirt year in the system he should be able to give what was already a pretty solid passing attack an even bigger boost.

Defense:

Malcolm Sheppard - DT

The Hogs were simply awful on defense last season and with injuries mounting over the fall to an alread suspect secondary, its up to the front seven to help keep them in games. Every starter on the line and at LB is back, and Sheppard is arguably the best of the bunch. A 2nd team All-SEC selection, Sheppard will have to help anchor the line if they are going to show any improvement.

Schedule:

09/03	vs Missouri State
09/19	vs Georgia
09/26	at Alabama
10/03	vs Texas A&M (Arlington, TX)
10/10	vs Auburn
10/17	at Florida
10/24	at Ole Miss
10/31	vs Eastern Michigan
11/07	vs South Carolina
11/14	vs Troy
11/21	vs Mississippi State
11/28	at LSU

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

As the first conference game, a win here is an absolute must for the Tide to keep a trip back to Atlanta in the works. Arkansas has been a thorn in our side ever since they joined the conference, though two straight wins have given us a little bit of breathing room as far as keeping a winning record goes. Though last year's match ended up being a total second half rout, the first half was much closer than was comfortable. Their offense moved the ball pretty well on us and it took a goal line stand going into the half to really set the Tide up for the second half beat down. With Ole Miss and LSU still looming in the west, getting by the Hogs with a W puts the Tide at least that much closer than the other two to securing the division.

***

Kentucky - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	127.46	81	8
Passing Offense	171.85	96	8
Passing Efficiency	102.40	105	9
Scoring Offense	22.62	87	6
Total Offense	299.31	106	9
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	139.23	55	9
Passing Defense	193.15	40	9
Passing Eff. Defense	121.01	51	11
Sacks	2.46	30	2
Tackles for Loss	6.62	29	2
Scoring Defense	21.46	35	8
Total Defense	332.38	40	11

CB Trevard Lindley

Key Players
Offense:

Mike Hartline - QB

If Hartline is going to be the Wildcats QB, he better get it done now. Pulled for four games last year in favor of the far more athletic Randall Cobb, Hartline rebounded with a strong showing against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl, going 19 of 31 for 204 yards against a pretty solid Pirate defense. He's supposedly improved a good deal over the spring and fall.

Randall Cobb - WR

Cobb saw most of his work at WR during the spring and fall and has shown he can be an electric playmaker from any position. He'll also probably still see time at QB in their Wildcat package (sucks for UK that they can't come up with something original for that).

Defense:

Trevard Lindley - CB

Probably the only football player in Lexington that is a truly elite talent, Lindley is one of only five returning starters from last year's unit and has his work cut out for him in the secondary.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Miami (OH) (Cincinnati)
09/19	vs Louisville
09/26	vs Florida
10/03	vs Alabama
10/10	at South Carolina
10/17	at Auburn
10/24	vs Louisiana-Monroe
10/31	vs Mississippi State
11/07	vs Eastern Kentucky
11/14	at Vanderbilt
11/21	at Georgia
11/28	vs Tennessee

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Last year's game in Tuscaloosa was a little close for comfort; though the Tide managed to move the ball at will turnovers and missed field goals kept the Wildcats in it until the very end when a busted coverage gave them another spark of hope to pull the upset. Thankfully we recovered the onside kick and put it away, but it just goes to show how there is a thin margin for error in games like these if your players aren't executing like they should and can. As a winnable conference game, this one is just one more step closer to getting to Atlanta.

***

Ole Miss - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #8 * Coaches - #10 * BlogPoll- #11

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	186.46	28	2
Passing Offense	221.15	53	4
Passing Efficiency	144.31	22	3
Scoring Offense	32.08	28	2
Total Offense	407.62	29	3
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	85.54	4	2
Passing Defense	221.69	81	12
Passing Eff. Defense	120.47	49	10
Sacks	3.00	4	1
Tackles for Loss	8.62	1	1
Scoring Defense	19.00	20	5
Total Defense	307.23	19	5

Key Players
Offense:

Jevan Snead - QB

The Texas transfer worked his way into the offense by mid season and generally put on a show during the latter half of the year, throwing for 2,762 yards and 26 TDs to 13 INTs (most of which came during the first half of the year). If he can continue to put up those kind of numbers behind a rebuilt line, the Rebels will have an incredibly potent offense.

Dexter McCluster - WR

The do everything athlete, McCluster will line up at WR, RB, and QB in the "Wild Rebel." At only 5'8", 165lbs, McCluster managed over 1000 all purpose yards last year and seven total TDs. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, McCluster and Shay Hodge will be the two go to guys at WR.

Defense:

Greg Hardy - DE

If he's healthy and shows up, Greg Hardy is one of the best rush ends in the country. That's two big question marks, though, so we'll have to see where he's at when Alabama heads to Oxford.

Kendrick Lewis - FS

Last year's Rebel secondary gave up passing yards like nobody's business, finishing dead last in the league. Lewis led the team last season with 85 tackles and had four picks, and if the secondary is going to be better it's likely up to his senior leadership to get it done.

Schedule:

09/06	at Memphis
09/19	vs Southeastern Louisiana
09/24	at South Carolina
10/03	at Vanderbilt
10/10	vs Alabama
10/17	vs UAB
10/24	vs Arkansas
10/31	at Auburn
11/07	vs Northern Arizona
11/14	vs Tennessee
11/21	vs LSU
11/28	at Mississippi State

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

This is going to be one of the games that shapes the SEC West this year and a win over the Rebels would give our hopes for Atlanta a leg up on LSU at this point. Must win.

***

South Carolina - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	94.08	112	12
Passing Offense	222.46	50	3
Passing Efficiency	111.50	93	7
Scoring Offense	20.77	96	8
Total Offense	316.54	97	7
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	132.69	43	7
Passing Defense	159.23	2	1
Passing Eff. Defense	111.13	23	5
Sacks	2.38	35	4
Tackles for Loss	5.46	70	9
Scoring Defense	21.08	31	7
Total Defense	291.92	13	4

Key Players
Offense:

Stephen Garcia - QB

Looking at the projected depth chart, there's just not a lot about the SC offense that makes me think they are going to take a big leap forward this year. They were a horrible rushing team last year, the receiver position is up in the air, and the line gave up 39 sacks last year. The oft troubled Garcia is either going to make or break the 'Cocks this year.

Defense:

Eric Norwood - LB

Norwood will likely rotate back and fourth between LB and DE, where he played his first two years in college, and is back for his senior year after flirting with the NFL draft. His 22 career sacks are just four shy of the school record.

Schedule:

09/03	at NC State
09/12	at Georgia
09/19	vs Florida Atlantic
09/24	vs Ole Miss
10/03	vs South Carolina State
10/10	vs Kentucky
10/17	at Alabama
10/24	vs Vanderbilt
10/31	at Tennessee
11/07	at Arkansas
11/14	vs Florida
11/28	vs Clemson

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Much like Kentucky, this is a winnable conference game and therefor a must win.

***

Tennessee - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	122.92	88	9
Passing Offense	145.83	107	11
Passing Efficiency	99.79	107	11
Scoring Offense	17.33	110 (T)	10
Total Offense	268.75	115	11
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	103.08	12	3
Passing Defense	160.42	4	2
Passing Eff. Defense	102.42	11	2
Sacks	1.92	58	8
Tackles for Loss	6.58	31	3
Scoring Defense	16.75	10	3
Total Defense	263.50	3 (T)	1 (T)

Key Players
Offense:

Jonathan Crompton - QB

Crompton was a highly sought after recruit, yet floundered all season last year, looking like he'd never played QB before in his life. He's been named the starter for UT and has been praised for his efforts in practice, so we'll have to see if Kiffin and his staff are better at developing talent than Fulmer and Co. were.

Bryce Brown - RB

He's eligible, and as a true freshman is already listed as a co-starter with Montario Hardesty. If he lives up to his recruiting hype like Julio Jones did his, then he could be something special.

Defense:

Eric Berry - FS

The SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Berry grabbed 7 INTs last year and likely took a couple of years off of several players lives with his brutal hits.

Rico McCoy - LB

87 tackles and the sexiest name in the SEC. Also the only returning starter at LB.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Western Kentucky
09/12	vs UCLA
09/19	at Florida
09/26	vs Ohio
10/03	vs Auburn
10/10	vs Georgia
10/24	at Alabama
10/31	vs South Carolina
11/07	vs Memphis
11/14	at Ole miss
11/21	vs Vanderbilt
11/28	at Kentucky

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Its the Third Saturday in October, and win here means much more than just another step towards Atlanta. With UT already having faced Florida, UCLA, Auburn and Georgia, we'll have a pretty good picture of just how far along they are with implementing Monte Kiffin's defense and whether or not the Lane Kiffin hire has gone from "risky" to just plain "bad."

***

LSU - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #11 * Coaches - #9 * BlogPoll - #8

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	166.77	43	4
Passing Offense	201.31	71	6
Passing Efficiency	117.44	80	6
Scoring Offense	30.92	30	4
Total Offense	368.08	55	5
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	110.15	17	5
Passing Defense	215.38	73	11
Passing Eff. Defense	116.62	42	8
Sacks	2.15	46	6
Tackles for Loss	5.77	56	6
Scoring Defense	24.15	56	9
Total Defense	325.54	32	9

Key Players
Offense:

Jordan Jefferson - QB

Jefferson finished last year with a .49 completion percentage, 419 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, but his athletic ability and extra time to learn the playbook make him the best hope for LSU in trying to find some stability under center.

Brandon LaFell - WR

LaFell has been LSU's leading receiver the past two seasons, catching 63 for 929 yards and an SEC best 8 TDs last season. Both he and Terrance Tolliver will give Jefferson playmaker targets to keep the offense humming.

Defense:

Patrick Peterson - CB

Peterson grabbed the starting job for the last four games last year and has yet to look back. With a new DC to help turn all the talent LSU has into a dominant unit, Peterson should be a star.

Charles Alexander - DT

The only returning starter on the d-line (though DE Rahim Alem saw significant playing time), Alexander will have to be the anchor for an unexperienced front four.

Schedule:

09/05	at Washington
09/12	vs Vanderbilt
09/19	vs Louisiana-LaFayette
09/26	at Mississippi State
10/03	at Georgia
10/10	vs Florida
10/24	vs Auburn
10/31	vs Tulane
11/07	at Alabama
11/14	vs Louisiana Tech
11/21	at Ole Miss
11/28	vs Arkansas

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Depending on how the Ole Miss and Arkansas games go, this is the last hurdle before Atlanta for the Tide. A win here either punches our ticket or spoils theirs.

***

Mississippi State - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	100.58	105	11
Passing Offense	174.33	94	7
Passing Efficiency	102.81	104	8
Scoring Offense	15.25	115	12
Total Offense	274.92	113	10
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	150.92	73	11
Passing Defense	176.58	17	4
Passing Eff. Defense	115.44	36	7
Sacks	1.58	84	12
Tackles for Loss	5.00	90	12
Scoring Defense	24.67	60	11
Total Defense	327.50	35	10

Key Players
Offense:

Anthony Dixon - RB

About the only good thing State did last year on offense was put Dixon on the field. After a 1000 yard year, he'll probably have to shoulder much of the offensive load this year.

Defense:

Jamar Chaney - LB

Chaney was granted a medical redshirt last season after a broken ankle against La. Tech ended his season, and the senior will be the bedrock of the front seven at MLB.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Jackson State
09/12	at Auburn
09/19	at Vanderbilt
09/26	vs LSU
10/03	vs Georgia Tech
10/10	vs Houston
10/17	at Middle Tennessee State
10/24	vs Florida
10/31	at Kentucky
11/14	vs Alabama
11/21	at Arkansas
11/28	vs Ole Miss

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

I think Mullen can probably be moderately successful at State if he can start bringing in some solid recruits, but I'm not expecting much from them in his first year. It will probably a hard fought game for us, but its a winnable contest and one that we'll have to make sure ends up as a W.

***

Auburn - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	137.50	69	6
Passing Offense	165.42	99	10
Passing Efficiency	102.05	106	10
Scoring Offense	17.33	110 (T)	10
Total Offense	302.92	104	8
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	138.92	54	8
Passing Defense	178.83	19	5
Passing Eff. Defense	113.78	30	6
Sacks	1.75	76	11
Tackles for Loss	6.25	43	4
Scoring Defense	18.00	14	4
Total Defense	317.75	29	7

Key Players
Offense:

Chris Todd - QB

Like it or not, Auburn fans, this man is your starter at QB. If his shoulder really is back to normal and the Malzahn offense clicks right away, he should be successful. A dearth of quality skill players is not something that will help, though.

Ben Tate - RB

Malzahn has made it a point to use his version of the spread as a means to run the ball, and Tate is the kind of bruising back that can take advantage of a spread out defense.

Defense:

Josh Bynes - LB

There's not a lot of depth at LB for the Tigers, but the starters are all capable and Bynes will have to be their leader.

Antonio Coleman - DE

A monster pass rusher, Coleman was a Lindy's 2nd Team All-American and will have to help carry the front seven with two new starters on the interior.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Louisiana Tech
09/12	vs Mississippi State
09/19	vs West Virginia
09/26	vs Ball State
10/03	at Tennessee
10/10	at Arkansas
10/17	vs Kentucky
10/24	at LSU
10/31	vs Ole Miss
11/07	vs Furman
11/14	at Georgia
11/27	vs Alabama

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

That all is just and right with the world.

2009 MidMajorMadness Sun Belt Conference Preview

aGent37 — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:00:12 -0000

The Sun Belt has made significant strides over the past few years in terms of its competitiveness over other conferences, especially ones in the BCS. Last season FAU beat Central Michigan, Arkansas State was victorious over Texas A&M and MTSU beat Maryland. Troy also was very competitive against Ohio State and LSU, but was not able to close out.

The conference will get another opportunity this season to show that they can compete at a high level. Sun Belt teams face off against the likes of Nebraska, Alabama, Rutgers, Clemson, Florida and LSU in 09. Tough out of conference schedules define the Sun Belt, but to gain some respect [and pay bills], you must play the best.

The 2009 Sun Belt conference can be summed up in one sentence: The Trojans of Troy and the 8 dwarfs. No team in the league seems to have the capability of challenging Troy for its 4^th straight conference title, but that being said FAU and MTSU will have should have decent seasons and be bowl eligible.

What team will be the biggest surprise in 2009?

The biggest surprise in the conference might be Middle Tennessee State. It is clear that Troy will be at the top and FAU will have a solid season, but the Blue Raiders could be the conference's sleeper team. They enter the 2009 season with plenty of talent, experience and depth. The entire starting offense is returning from last season, which is good news for MTSU. The only question mark is quarterback Dwight Dasher. He needs to play up to his potential

and be consistent if the Blue Raiders are to have a successful season on offense.

The defense also has veteran talent returning in 2009. They return seven starters on defense including lineman, Dwight Smith. Smith recorded 30 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss last season. The line needs to continue to get pressure up front, especially more pressure on the quarterback. Although the secondary might be considered undersized, they possess as much talent as any other team in the league, including fantastic speed and depth. They return four starters from last season including the leader at free safety, Jeremy Kellem. Kellem had 72 tackles, two interceptions and a sack last season. The secondary should be one of the stronger ones in the conference and has the talent to make some game changing plays.

The Blue Raiders should be able to reach .500 and be bowl eligible. If MTSU can steal a game, look for them to make a push to be a top the conference.

What player if lost will impact the team the most?

It is without question that the FAU Owls would be devastated if they lost their veteran senior quarterback, Rusty Smith. Smith is a candidate for Sun Belt Player of the Year and has plenty of weapons surrounding him. A true leader in every sense of the word, Smith has shown to have all the tools to be a great college and possibly even NFL quarterback. He has thrown for over 3,000 yards and more than 20 touchdowns the past two seasons.

With talks about the Owls making a push for the Sun Belt title, they need Smith to stay healthy. Behind him they junior Jeff VanCamp and red shirt freshman Graham Wilbert, neither of which have a ton of experience. Although Wilbert might be the future, if the Owls want to compete this year, Smith must be healthy and productive.

Does a team from the Sun Belt make a BCS game?

Although the Sun Belt teams have made improvements over the past few years on their talent and playing at a higher level of competition, they are still not close to having their names mentioned in the BCS talks. Troy may have a decent chance at a double-digit win season, but you will be hard pressed to see them playing in a BCS game this season. Even though their out of conference schedule is impressive, the weakness of their in conference games will leave their RPI wanting every time... even if they go undefeated.

What Sun Belt team has the opportunity of beating a team from one of the major 6 conferences?

In the past Sun Belt teams have given some of the major conferences a tough time. This season there are a few games that could end up in a Sun Belt teams favor including Troy's trip into SEC country when they play Arkansas in the middle of November. Arkansas is coming off a 5-7 season, lost their starting quarterback and finished last in the SEC in total defense. If Troy can take advantage of the inconsistent play of the defense, the Trojans might be victorious.

We might also see a repeat of last year's performance between Maryland and MTSU. This year the game is at Maryland and the Terrapins showed last year that they are inconsistent. They lose seven starters on defense and a few key players on the offensive line. With the experience returning at MTSU and a solid defense, the Blue Raiders might have the Terrapins number again in 2009.

Poll

Troy 10-2

Florida Atlantic University 7-5

Middle Tennessee State University 6-6

Arkansas State 5-7

North Texas 4-8

UL Lafayette 4-8

FIU 4-8

UL -Monroe 3-9

Western Kentucky 2-10