SB Nation - Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Volunteers at Ole Miss Rebels: game preview

Joel — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:27:49 -0000

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.

This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts


@ Memphis Tigers	9/6/09	win 45 - 14
SE Louisiana Lions	9/19/09	win 52 - 6
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	9/24/09	loss 10 - 16
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	10/3/09	win 23 - 7
Alabama Crimson Tide	10/10/09	loss 3 - 22
UAB Blazers	10/17/09	win 48 - 13
Arkansas Razorbacks	10/24/09	win 30 - 17
@ Auburn Tigers	10/31/09	loss 20 - 33
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	11/7/09	win 38 - 14

Rather than post all of the Rebels' drive charts, I decided to compare those of Ole Miss and Tennessee against common opponents. Up first is Memphis. Both games were blowouts, but ours was front-loaded (which is better, right?) and more blowout-y:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

They lost to South Carolina, and we dominated, although we were pretty fortunate with the turnovers:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams played fairly well in losses to Alabama and mostly kept the Tide out of the end zone (although the Rebels' let 'em have one). Ole Miss, though, threw four interceptions to our one, and the Tide pulled away from the Rebs at the end but the Vols pulled closer:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams lost to Auburn, but we both held the Tigers to fewer points and scored more:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

National Unit Rankings

Now on to the national rankings.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Offense	40	172.44	Nevada	319.13	6	Florida	240.67
Passing Offense	57	223.56	Houston	433.67	4	Arkansas	299.44
Total Offense	51	396.00	Houston	577.89	6	Auburn	450.30
Scoring Offense	38	29.89	Houston	42.11	6	Arkansas	35.56
Passing Efficiency	72	126.00	Cincinnati	171.84	9	Florida	159.46
Sacks Allowed	T-34	1.33	La.-Lafayette	.44	5	Alabama	1.00

Offensive observations. Smack dab in the middle of the pack in the SEC and slightly above average nationally in every offensive category except passing efficiency, where they're in the bottom quarter.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Defense	58	136.44	Texas	55.33	7	Alabama	68.22
Pass Efficiency Defense	14	100.02	Florida	85.86	3	Florida	85.86
Total Defense	25	317.22	Texas	230.78	6	Florida	232.44
Scoring Defense	12	15.78	Florida	10.11	4	Florida	10.11
Pass Defense	23	180.78	Air Force	127.20	7	Florida	134.44
Sacks	16	2.78	Pittsburgh	4.33	2	Alabama	2.89
Tackles For Loss	26	7.00	Cincinnati	8.89	2	Alabama	7.33

Defensive observations. Sort of all over the board here. Extremely good at disrupting the opponent's backfield and pass effficiency defense, good at keeping points off the board, and average (in the SEC, anyway) in rush, pass, and total defense. Their primary vulnerability appears to be against the run.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Net Punting	62	35.74	Georgia	43.95	5	Georgia	43.95
Punt Returns	58	9.37	Arizona	19.00	6	LSU	17.32
Kickoff Returns	16	24.97	Stanford	32.06	3	Florida	26.48
Turnover Margin	102	-.78	Rutgers	2.25	11	Arkansas	1.00

Special teams and turnovers observations. Bell curve here. Really good at kickoff returns (uh-oh), okay at punting and returning punts, and really bad in turnover margin.

Stastical Comparison

Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD
27		51	32	16	39	70	16	35	26	47	16
33		31	59	14	58	66	25	72	12	51	2

Against a much more difficult schedule, the Vols are roughly evenly matched against Ole Miss. Where they're ranked higher than Tennessee, though, it's fairly close, but where Tennessee is ranked higher, the difference is generally more pronounced.

Players to watch for

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
Rushing	Brandon Bolden	95	58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jevan Snead	73	123.84
Total Offense	Jevan Snead	58	216.56
	Brandon Bolden		58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Receptions Per Game	Shay Hodge	T-55	5.00
	Dexter McCluster		3.00
Receiving Yards Per Game	Shay Hodge	31	81.44
	Dexter McCluster		39.11
Interceptions
Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game)	Tyler Campbell	18	43.80
Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Marshay Green	36	8.82
Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jesse Grandy	11	30.06
Field Goals	Joshua Shene	T-65	1.00
Scoring	Joshua Shene		6.33
	Shay Hodge		4.00
All-Purpose Runners	Brandon Bolden		97.00
	Dexter McCluster		94.78
	Shay Hodge		81.44
	Jesse Grandy		74.25
Sacks	Greg Hardy	T-51	.62
	Kentrell Lockett		.44
	Patrick Trahan		.44
Tackles	Kendrick Lewis		6.33
	Johnny Brown		6.22
Tackles For Loss	Jerrell Powe	T-77	1.00
	Greg Hardy		.81
	Kentrell Lockett		.67
	Patrick Trahan		.67

Observations

Running backs. Dexter McCluster is not ranked nationally in any statistical category, but he's everywhere doing everything. Apart from McCluster, it appears that they have a bunch of good runners, but no spectacular ones. Brandon Bolden is the most productive of the bunch.

Quarterbacks. For as much preseason hype as he got, Jevan Snead's numbers this season haven't been anything special. He's solid, and he can go off at any time, but he can also completely tank at any given time.

Receivers/Tight Ends. Shay Hodge is the team's go-to receiver with 5 catches and 81.44 yards per game. Oh, look. Next is McCluster.

Defense. Look at all of those guys making noise in the backfield. Led by Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe, they're quite good at pressuring the quarterback and stopping running plays before they get to the line of scrimmage. Hardy's getting .62 sacks and .81 TFLs per game. Powe's getting a sack per game. Kentrell Lockett and Patrick Trahan round out the aggressive group.

Special teams. Jesse Grandy is a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging over 30 yards per return. He's returned two for touchdowns this season, one against UAB and one against Auburn.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Best Comparable	Result Against Best Comparable	Prediction
UT rush v. Ole Miss rush defense	168.22 (#46)	136.44 (#58)	South Carolina (145.60)	199	190
UT pass v. Ole Miss pass defense	232.22 (#45)	180.78 (#23)	Alabama (174)	265	240
Ole Miss rush v. UT rush defense	119 (#39)	172.44 (#40)	WKU (175)	34	100
Ole Miss pass v. UT pass defense	176.11 (#20)	223.56 (#57)	UCLA (222.44)	101	120
UT scoring offense v. Ole Miss scoring defense	32.11 (#23)	15.78 (#12)	Alabama (11.78)	10	13
Ole Miss scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	18.89 (#26)	29.89 (#38)	Alabama (30.89)	12	12

Again, not math, but informed guess. I doubt we'll have as much success against their running game as we did against WKU's, what with ladies man McCluster back there running all over the place and us working on our third starting middle linebacker of the season. I also took trends into account in bumping up the prediction for Tennessee's points. 13 may actually be conservative with how this team has shown it can move the ball in the last few games. But the most concerning thing about the above chart is that Alabama pops up as the best comparable in half the categories.

Prediction? More yards for Tennessee, but a close, relatively low-scoring game. Like the 'Bama game but without Terrence Cody?

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

JaWuan James is all Volunteer!

Hooper — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:10:59 -0000

Offensive line, hey-O! This evening, JaWuan James made the call to UT recruiting headquarters that resulted in shouts heard across Knoxville: he was officially a Tennessee Volunteers commit. The former Alabama Crimson Tide commit is a Scout 4-star / Rivals 4-star offensive tackle who stands 6'-6" and weighs roughly 300 lbs. He comes from North Gwinnett, Georgia, which is just a little bit north of Atlanta. He had been suspected of being a Volunteer lean for quite some time, though Georgia appeared to be the other option on the table.

[Note by Hooper, 11/11/09 9:34 AM EST ] Great article on James at Scout.com.

The map is now updated:

View Rocky Top Talk Tennessee Volunteers Recruiting Big Board 2010 in a larger map

This brings the current class to a total of 22 which, at the time of this writing, is the #6 overall ranked class on Scout ~~(Rivals has not yet updated)~~ and remains at #6 in Rivals. That places Tennessee behind Alabama and LSU in the SEC, and immediately ahead of Georgia and Florida. More importantly, it addresses the largest need of the class - the offensive line - where graduation and thin roster numbers among juniors and sophomores will leave the program in a bit of a lurch next year.

JaWuan is physically developed enough to play as a freshmen if he learns the offense quickly. He should also be an early enrollee (pending graduation, which is on pace), so he should be available for spring practice. With Aaron Douglas likely moving to left tackle in the spring, James will be available for competition for the right tackle spot - and competition will only make the offense stronger.

There are more offensive linemen on the board, however, and one or two more would be ideal. Keep the ears open in the next month or two to see where the recruiting chimera heads next.

RTT BlogPoll Computer Rankings: Week 10 Final Ballot

Hooper — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:39:54 -0000

After thinking the rankings through, here is this week's final BlogPoll ballot with the human overrides in place. Houston comes up, and Ohio State and Penn State sink. Iowa didn't slide, and I'll explain why in the following section. And I'm sure I've made everybody just a little disappointed, which probably means that game theory is happy.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	TCU
4	Alabama
5	Boise State	1
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Georgia Tech	3
8	Iowa	3
9	Arizona	6
10	Oregon	2
11	Pittsburgh	2
12	Southern Cal
13	Miami (Florida)	6
14	Ohio State	2
15	Penn State	6
16	Houston
17	Brigham Young	1
18	Virginia Tech	1
19	LSU	8
20	Utah	6
21	Oregon State
22	Wisconsin
23	Nebraska
24	Oklahoma State
25	West Virginia	4
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oklahoma (#20), Notre Dame (#25).

Ohio State and Penn State fall in line behind USC and Miami partly because of the 'defense is overcompensated' issue that masks offensive problems, and partly because, out of very similar resumes, that USC > OSU deal actually makes some sense.
Houston is the grand loser in the offense undercompensation, so they slide in to 16. Why 16? Because, after holding them up in the light against BYU, it kinda felt right to place them up there. Houston is all offense, no defense, for sure, but that offense has shown up for every game and they've only lost once. Above BYU sounds decent.
Iowa didn't get the Big 10 boot because, despite their extreme charitability in games, they still only have that one loss. They beat Penn State on the road, and their one loss is very comparable to OSU's loss to Purdue. Any offense that can maintain composure after some of those turnover-fests is either very disciplined (good!) or too dumb to know better (in this case, good!). Oh, and the Northwestern loss came after Stanzi's injury. Isn't it fun to think that, had that not happened, Iowa may very well have won?

And yes, Oregon is ahead of Southern Cal and behind Boise State. ID-10 T check SAT.

SEC Power Poll Ballot: Week Ten

T Kyle King — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:00:30 -0000

I’m still soliciting comments on my BlogPoll ballot draft, but there are deadlines to be observed in the interim, one of which concerns my SEC Power Poll ranking of the twelve teams in the league. The strength of the Southeastern Conference is as follows, in descending order:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0): Against a significantly better class of competition than that faced by the Sunshine State Saurians on Saturday, ‘Bama trailed 7-3 at the break yet outscored the Bayou Bengals 21-8 in the second half. The Red Elephants do what good teams do to win.

2. Florida Gators (9-0): Urban Meyer’s outfit still has a solid shot at becoming the first Florida club of the modern era to go unbeaten, but these Gators aren’t remotely as fear-inducing as the 1995, 1996, and 2008 Orange and Blue teams that made it to the national championship game. The Gators are good, but they’re less than the sum of their parts. They’ll end the regular season unscathed, but, right now, I wouldn’t pick Florida to beat either Alabama or Texas.

3. LSU Tigers (7-2): Louisiana State showed that the gap separating the top two teams in the SEC from the next ten teams was not quite as large as we thought, but it’s still large enough to be notable. This year, that gets you ranked third in the league. I’m thinking we may want to lay off on the "toughest conference in college football" talk for a little bit.

4. Auburn Tigers (7-3): Yes, the Plainsmen gave up 31 points to Furman, but they scored 63 and 28 of the Paladins’ points came in the second half, after Auburn had built up a 42-3 halftime lead. Something tells me Saturday night’s showdown between the hedges will not feature a scintillating display of rock-ribbed defensive prowess. Oh, goody . . . because high-scoring games against the Tigers in Athens worked out so well for the Bulldogs in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, and 2005! (I hate Auburn.)

5. Mississippi Rebels (6-3): I can’t fault Ole Miss for scoring 38 points on a Division I-AA opponent at home. I can fault the Rebs for surrendering 14 points in the first half. I’m guessing the Northern Arizona players felt right at home in the Grove, what with all those trees, ‘cause there are a boatload of trees in the Flagstaff area. Just so you’ll know.

6. Tennessee Volunteers (5-4): Monte Kiffin’s defense is good, but Lane Kiffin’s timing is better. There has never been a better year to be a rookie head coach in the Southeastern Conference. When, prior to 2009, could a 2-3 record in SEC play be considered success? Is it fair to say Tommy West has just been Kiffined?

7. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4): Will the real Hogs please stand? Please? Just when you thought it was safe to write off Arkansas, the Razorbacks wallop South Carolina to prove that all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

8. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-4): Steve Spurrier may coach another three or four years in Columbia, but the mystique of the Evil Genius is officially a thing of the past. Another promising season is circling the drain for the Palmetto State Poultry, once again diminishing the value of the Bulldogs’ tough tussle with South Carolina. Thanks for nothing, Gamecocks.

9. Georgia Bulldogs (5-4): The Red and Black did what they were supposed to do against a Division I-AA opponent, which is something they haven’t done since facing the Hawaii Warriors in the 2008 Sugar Bowl. (Oh, stop. The Aloha State parvenus deserved that and you know it.)

10. Mississippi St. Bulldogs (4-5): It’s unfortunate that the NCAA requires a team to win six games to qualify for postseason play, because I’d like to see a bowl game pitting Mississippi State against Connecticut to settle the question of which is the best 4-5 team in America.

11. Kentucky Wildcats (5-4): When does the UK formula for reaching a bowl game start to include beating good teams?

12. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-8): The SEC school known for its smarts is 0-6 in league play and continues to be the doormat of the conference. Maybe foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of big minds, too.

If you have any arguments against any of that, well, frankly, it’s too late for me to change it even if you convince me that I’m wrong, but feel free to register your quarrel with my logic in the comments, anyway. It will make you feel better to get it off your chest, even if it has no impact whatsoever, so have at it.

Go ‘Dawgs! Auburna delenda est!

SEC Power Poll Ballot: Week 10

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:54:48 -0000

At this point in the season, there is a lot of jockeying for position down in the lower reaches of the league, but with the division champions settled and only two or three games left, the four and five win teams are striving to earn bowl eligibility, and the better teams are trying to polish their credentials and avoid the late-season upset.

As for Kentucky, well, they are really two SEC wins away from finding themselves firmly in the middle of the pack. Right now, despite some factors that make them look better on paper than some others, it's hard to put a team with only one SEC win, even a pretty good one, too high.

With all that said, my ballot follows the jump.

Team	cWL	W-L	bWL	SoS	MoV	PF-PA	FBR	Next opponent	Polls	Comments
Florida	7-0	9-0	7-0	47.41	24.9	315-91	2	Florida International	1,[1!]	Only 27 points vs. the 'Dores? What can that mean?
Alabama	6-0	9-0	7-0	52.62	19.1	278-106	3	Tennessee-Chattanooga	3,[2!]	Too strong for the Tigers this year.
LSU	4-2	7-2	5-2	50.74	11.7	226-121	15	at Mississippi	11,8	Alabama was clearly the better team, but the loss of Scott to a broken collarbone really hurts an already anemic LSU offense.
Auburn	3-3	7-3	4-3	46.42	8.4	350-266	27	Nov 28, Alabama	25,27	Can Aubie rise up and smite the Bulldogs?
Arkansas	2-4	5-4	3-4	49.7	9.4	320-235	34	Mississippi State		On a roll at the end of the season.
South Carolina	3-4	6-4	4-4	44.86	0.9	213-204	38	Nov 28, Clemson	42	Another late-season swoon for the Gamecocks? Sure looks that way.
Georgia	3-3	5-4	4-4	48.67	1	244-235	41	Kentucky		Mauled the Golden Eagles, but Richt really needs an SEC scalp.
Mississippi	2-3	6-3	2-3	38.54	14.1	269-142	54	LSU	39,38	Ole Miss once again shows a less than stout defense against an FCS foe.
Tennessee	2-3	5-4	2-4	46.08	13.2	289-170	42	Vanderbilt	37,35	Has Crompton actually learned to throw the football? This could be trouble for Tennessee's foes.
Kentucky	1-4	5-4	2-4	48.83	4.4	244-204	36	at Georgia		Easy game could not have come at a better time for the traveling M.A.S.H. Unit that is the Kentucky Wildcats.
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	2-4	55.59	2.3	242-221	60	at Arkansas		Open date
Vanderbilt	0-6	2-8	0-7	40.47	-5.8	167-225	108	at Tennessee		At least with Spikes on the bench, the 'Dores didn't have to wear eye guards. But it didn't help their offense.

Your comments, as always, are welcome and encouraged.

Other Half of Power Poll Ballot and Overall Ballot for Week 10

cocknfire — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:56:12 -0000

Final overall ballot:

1 Alabama
2 Florida
3 LSU
4 Tennesee
5 Auburn
6t Arkansas
6t Georgia
8 Ole Miss
9 South Carolina
10 Mississippi State
11 Kentucky
12 Vanderbilt

C&F's ballot:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Subject to video review.

2. Florida Gators
Managed to defeat an inferior foe without officiating mistakes or an eye-gouging incident. Impressive.

3. LSU Tigers
The best of the rest.

4. Tennessee Volunteers
Lane Kiffin will be singing Rocky Top all night long after they win the Outback Bowl.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks
'Mr. Petrino? There's a caller from South Bend, Indiana for you on Line 1.'

6. Auburn Tigers
Watching this team from week to week is like taking a swig of hot coffee and washing it down with liquid nitrogen.

7. Georgia Bulldogs
Defeating Tennessee Tech means they might go to a bowl game after all.

8. South Carolina Gamecocks
Let's move on.

9. Mississippi Rebels
I still haven't figured out this team.

10. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
This might be too low, given the way the five teams immediately ahead of them have played.

11. Kentucky Wildcats
Would be higher if they had any players left.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores
Don't worry. South Carolina still has two games and a possible bowl to catch you.

National News and Notes

Year2 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:00:59 -0000

More photos » by Mike Stone - AP

Rejoice! Finally, a sell out in Fort Worth.

Browse more photos »

Because we're all playing for bowl positioning now, and that only goes so far.

Congrats to the Frogs.

You may recall a couple weeks ago that I pointed out that TCU, despite playing big time football, hasn't been drawing fans like a big time program. Well as a follow up to that, I'm pleased to report that the Horned Frogs have their first sell out in three years coming up in their showdown with Utah on Saturday. It still floors me that a program just outside the gigantic and football-crazy Dallas area can't find 44,000 people to show up to watch really good football, but I guess that's the nature of the beast in the mid-major ranks.

Mack Brown at least has a sense of humor.

Texas coach Mack Brown freely admits that he doesn't understand everything about how the BCS works, and he often has someone come in to explain things to him. When asked this week about if he was worried about falling to third in the BCS standings, he replied that someone told him that if the Longhorns keep winning they're in, and that's all he cared about. He also slipped in a little zinger too:

Brown was asked if the computer elements to the BCS standings don’t like his team as much as the human polls.

"I’ve called the computers. They haven’t called me back," Brown said. "I’ve invited them to our games. I don’t think any of them have shown up."

Nice. I wonder though if anyone has told him that it's the humans, not the algorithms, who have USC above Oregon.

The other choice is the Ghost of Christmas Past.

With Tommy West out at Memphis, speculation has arisen as to who will replace him there. If ESPN is to be believed, it could look a lot like Auburn's past in Graceland as Tommy Tuberville and Terry Bowden are the top two candidates. According to a website called FootballScoop.com (yeah, I haven't heard of it either), ~~former~~ current Auburn assistant Trooper Taylor is also on their list. Who knew Memphis scouted the Tigers of the Plains so closely? Also, it says look for Phil Fulmer's name to come up, but personally, I think Fulmer (and Tuberville for that matter) could get a much better job. (H/T CFT)

Apparently his copy of Phil Steele's season preview magazine just arrived.

Urban Meyer says he knows what is ailing the Florida offense. For one thing, it's a lack of big plays and defenses showing his team new looks. Beyond that though, he says it's a combination of transitioning to a new offensive coordinator, the losses of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy at receiver, and the losses of last year's starting offensive tackles Phil Trautwein and Jason Watkins. Apparently, it only took him nine games to put that together.

It is telling though that Florida hasn't turned the ball over in the past two games and each one resulted in a 24 point margin of victory. I think a lot of people undervalued the role of turnovers in the Gators' struggles with teams earlier in the season.

Vultures.

Okay, so maybe not everyone is playing for bowl positioning. Tennessee is playing for recruiting positioning, of course. Did you know Charlie Weis is in trouble? And that Notre Dame has not just one, but two quarterback commits? Rocky Top Talk says watch for the UT coaches to swoop in on those guys should Weis be shown the door.

The King of the West is Dead; Long Live the King of the West -- Alabama Clinches and Other Week 10 Action

cocknfire — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

Alabama has ended LSU's dynasty.

Browse more photos »

THE BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTS IN THE WEST
Alabama 24, LSU 15

Consider that before the beginning of last season, LSU had been to the SEC Championship Game in four of the last seven seasons while Alabama had not gone to Atlanta in early December since 1999. The Bayou Bengals won three of those appearances and used their 2003 and 2007 showings to launch LSU to national titles. LSU lost only nine SEC games from 2003-07, no more than two in any one season and none to Alabama.

Two years later, LSU is no longer the pre-eminent team in the SEC West; Alabama is. The Tide has defeated the Tigers in two consecutive seasons -- the first time Alabama has done that in a decade. The Tide has gone 14-0 in regular season SEC games over the same time frame and lost only to eventual national champion Florida in last year's SEC title bout.

And with a solid junior quarterback and superstar sophomore running back likely to return next year, there's little reason except defensive attrition to believe that Alabama won't at least be a strong favorite to repeat next season. After all, those offensive starters helped ring up 452 yards of total offense Saturday, including Greg McElroy's above-average outing (19-of-34, 276 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and Mark Ingram's latest Heism@n statement (22 carries, 144 yards).

Meanwhile, LSU still seems adrift in some respects. QB Jordan Jefferson was OK before he left the game (10-of-17, 114 yards, 1 TD), and Charles Scott was having a solid day (13 rushes, 83 yards) before his likely college career-ending injury. Once both stars were out, the Tigers offense wasn't able to score enough to stave off Alabama's rally.

The unacknowledged interception near the end of the game -- and it was an interception -- will get a lot of attention after the previous officiating problems in the SEC, and it should. But that's not why LSU lost this game. The Tigers lost because Alabama is just a little better than they are right now. And that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

KO IN FAYETTEVILLE
Arkansas 33, South Carolina 16

If this was, as the announcers incessantly reminded us Saturday, a game between two of the up-and-coming teams in the SEC, give the first round to the Razorbacks by knock-out. Sure, Arkansas only outgained South Carolina by 25 yards and gained the same number of first downs (17) as did the Gamecocks, but after the Gamecocks scored 13 seconds into the third quarter to take a 16-10 lead, Arkansas blocked the ensuing extra point and proceeded to blow out the Gamecocks 23-0 for the rest of the game.

Ryan Mallett had no touchdowns or interceptions but still threw the ball for gobs of yards, going 23-of-27 for 329 yards against a Gamecocks defense that was one of the best in the league until twin demolitions against Tennessee and Arkansas. TE D.J. Williams, missing in action for the first eight games of the season, grabbed seven catches for 137 yards.

The defense for Arkansas wasn't sterling against one of the SEC's most anemic offenses, but they came up with the plays when needed: three of South Carolina's five first-half possessions ended in punts and the defense picked what would have been a go-ahead TD in the third quarter.

For South Carolina, the defense contributed mightily to losing this game by allowing 405 yards. The rushing numbers weren't quite as bad as they look; take out the two sacks for a loss of 16 yards and the 32-yard loss on a snap that shot over Stephen Garcia's head late in the game, and the Gamecocks rushers gained 101 yards on 23 carries during a game in which South Carolina trailed for the last 24:43. But when the best thing that can be said about your rushing attack during the 10th game of the season includes the phrase "take out ... the 32-yard loss on a snap," your football team has deeper issues. (In fairness to the Gamecocks, the normal center was out of the game at the time and a valiant effort to recover the snap by Garcia before it made its way into the end zone for a safety was in vain.)

One of those issues is an overreliance on Alshon Jeffery. The freshman and future star had another great day (5 receptions, 116 yards, 1 TD). But the semi-regular throws to Jeffery in the end zone have become predictable, and one of those attempts led to Garcia's lone interception (overall: 20-of-34, third straight 300+ yard passing game with 327, 1 TD, 1 INT). And it's not like Moe Brown or Weslye Saunders are chopped liver; both are more than capable of taking some of the load off of Jeffery. So why did they only have three receptions between them? And why did the Gamecocks' other talented freshman, Tori Gurley, have one catch? At least, in the 10th game of the season, the South Carolina coaching staff figured out that Bryce Sherman might be someone they want to get the ball to. And it only took 117 all-purpose yards.

WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO TO MAKE YOU PEOPLE HAPPY?
Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3

There's not much for Florida to complain about in this performance: outgaining Vanderbilt by 176 yards and allowing just three points would count as a great game in most SEC teams' books. The Commodores are a trickier win than most non-SEC fans give them credit for being, and supposedly better teams have starting losing to Vanderbilt with frightening regularity over the last few years.

But this is Gainesville, and any victory over Vanderbilt that includes scoring fewer than 30 points isn't much of a victory at all -- meaning Steve Addazio is still one of the least popular coaches on a Top 5 team. Tim Tebow was an efficient 15-of-20 for 208 yards and 1 TD, but was allowed to stay in the game just late enough to draw criticism but not to make the game a complete laugher. (John Brantley in relief: 3-of-3, 19 yards.)

As for Vanderbilt: What's left to say about the Commodores? The hopes of back-to-back bowl games had already ended by the time they visited the Swamp and the 199 yards of offense proves that they still have just as far to go to catch the elite in the SEC East as they did before last season's breakthrough winning record. They still play disciplined football -- two penalties and one turnover -- but that's enough when the others guys make up one of the best teams in the country.

MR. WEST REQUESTS YOU REMOVE YOUR PLAYERS AFTER THE FIRST QUARTER
Tennessee 56, Memphis 28

By the time the Vols were leading 42-7 at the half, it was easily time to call off the dogs. Memphis head coach Tommy West, canned after the debacle on Rocky Top, probably wishes Lane Kiffin had done so earlier, but you can't blame the other team for running up the score in the first half.

Yardage-wise, this wasn't quite as thorough a shellacking by Tennessee as you might think. Tennessee outgained Memphis 566-403 and gained just two more first downs (29-27). But take those numbers into account with this grain of salt: Tennessee covered 367 yards with its first half drives; Memphis gained 84.

Jonathan Crompton continued his unexpected second-half resurgence -- or perhaps "surgence," since there's little for Crompton to "re-" -- going 21-of-27 for 331 yards and 5 TDs. The Vols ground game "only" picked up 137 yards and 2 TDs on 33 carries. But that's the only nit you can pick about a game where Tennessee did what it should to prove that the early-season predictions of gloom were overstated.

THEY WON THE FIRST HALF
Auburn 63, Furman 31

The good news for Auburn is that the halftime score was 42-3 and the 28-21 second-half advantage for Furman was largely the result of playing everyone except the first row against the Paladins. But that still means that, from all appearances, the non-starting portion of Auburn's roster isn't capable right now of defeating an FCS team. This does not bode well for the future. All that aside, Chris Todd showed he's still the No. 1 surprise quarterback of the year, going 17-of-18 -- that's right, he threw just one incompletion -- for 256 yards and 4 TDs. Were he a Florida quarterback, he might have gone 37-of-38 for 523 yards and 9 TDs. Neil Caudle also did well (10-of-12, 117 yards) in significant action as a signal-caller, while the rushing attack gained 282 yards and 5 TDs on 39 carries. And the defense did only allow 266 yards despite giving up so many points. Still, 31 points.

THAT WAS EASY. SORT OF
Georgia 38, Tennessee Tech 0

It's easy to be critical of an SEC team that decides to place an FCS cupcake on its schedule -- especially one from another state, where there's no historical or geographical reason for doing so -- but Georgia needed this one. The Dawgs' much-criticized defense limited Tennessee Tech to eight first downs and 55 yards, including -13 rushing on 31 carries. Georgia also rolled up 469 yards, including 304 rushing on 39 carries divided among nine Dawgs. But to nitpick: UGA still lost the turnover battle, with one interception from Logan Gray and no turnovers forced against an FCS offense. Granted, the Golden Eagles only had 47 offensive snaps in the game, but Georgia's problems in forcing the other team to give up the ball early continued. The Dawgs are dead last in FBS with six turnovers forced. That's two behind the four teams tied for 116th and 21 back of No. 1 Ohio.

WHEN GETTING THERE IS ALL THAT MATTERS
Kentucky 37, Eastern Kentucky 12

Kentucky's probably happy to outgain anyone by 180 yards this season, particularly given the fact that their starting lineup has begun to look like an Alamo movie after the Mexicans attack. But a 25-point win over a 5-4 FCS team is still not the kind of game you expect from an SEC East team with bowl aspirations. This is part of why Kentucky schedules games like these; the only way for a team like the Wildcats to make the postseason in one of the toughest divisions in college football is to load up on the empty carbs of cupcakes. But UK still allowed Eastern Kentucky to rush for 127 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. The win still counts -- which is more than some SEC teams can say about their confectionary victory this week -- and Kentucky will in all likelihood defeat Vanderbilt this weekend to clinch bowl eligibility. That doesn't make them a good team, and the results Saturday just prove that.

THEY ALL COUNT THE SAME. EXCEPT WHEN THEY DON'T
Ole Miss 38, Northern Arizona 14

This game literally doesn't count. Well, it technically does serve as Ole Miss' sixth victory on the year. But because the Rebels have already played one FCS team this year, they still need a seventh win to get to a bowl game. So why even go through the exercise? Was there not a single Sun Belt or MAC team willing to jettison some other game to play the Rebels after Ole Miss found themselves lacking a 12th opponent? In any case, Ole Miss might not want this game to count. It wasn't one of the team's finest hours. The Rebels only outgained the Lumberjacks 425-354, lost the time-of-possession battle by more than 10 minutes and were still tied with Northern Arizona late in the second quarter. Under normal circumstances, Ole Miss might be able to comfort itself by saying a win's a win. But what do you say when you can't even resort to that cliche?

SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

Hooper — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:00:31 -0000

Explanations after the jump, as well as the computer numbers that defined the rankings. (And yes, there are already human overrides in effect based on previous trends.)

Thoughts

Auburn moved over Mississippi. Head-to-head, and the teams were already within a hair's breadth of each other.
Georgia over South Carolina. Same as Auburn/Mississippi, albeit with a slightly larger margin.
Arkansas over Kentucky. They're very close and, acknowledging the computer's tendency to undervalue offense, Arkansas gets a corrective bump..
Kentucky stays over MSU. Yes, there's the head to head, but Kentucky has one more win and, between the two, has the only reputable win of the season (over Auburn). I don't think the head-to-head is enough to overcome those two factors.

Computer Data

These are the numbers without consideration to the above changes:

Untitled Document

SEC	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	1.951	0.390	2.173	1.097	0.840	2.190	1.712	2.015	1.039	1.974	148.938
2	Alabama	1.951	0.805	1.922	1.792	-0.388	2.025	0.165	1.784	0.621	1.382	136.679
3	LSU	1.017	1.096	1.072	0.555	0.220	0.870	0.414	1.553	-1.078	0.158	83.280
4	Tennessee	0.083	0.616	1.332	0.607	-0.159	1.133	0.557	0.798	0.373	1.030	50.369
5	Mississippi	0.550	-0.088	1.395	0.200	-0.107	0.759	-0.194	1.229	0.296	2.067	44.163
6	Auburn	0.690	0.215	0.935	-0.578	0.300	0.022	1.012	-0.270	1.241	1.013	42.278
7	South Carolina	0.270	0.844	0.598	-0.013	0.025	0.954	-0.136	0.589	-0.199	0.115	38.746
8	Georgia	0.083	1.394	-0.401	0.563	-0.167	0.510	0.056	-0.202	-0.606	0.715	30.808
9	Kentucky	0.083	0.562	1.064	-1.008	0.120	0.069	-1.132	0.274	-0.577	-0.338	8.588
10	Arkansas	0.083	1.015	-1.222	0.208	-1.035	-0.760	1.295	-0.202	0.963	0.222	5.141
11	Mississippi St.	-0.384	0.968	0.408	-0.056	-1.210	0.174	-0.866	0.013	0.098	0.662	-3.360
12	Vanderbilt	-1.411	0.502	0.399	-0.968	-0.643	0.152	-2.310	0.298	-1.063	0.227	-59.323
	Average	0.414	0.693	0.806	0.200	-0.184	0.675	0.048	0.657	0.092	0.769	43.859

Things of Note:

Tennessee can lock down 4th this week. Not that we didn't already know this, but it's a pretty deep cut if Tennessee wins. With Kentucky and Vandy left, UT can sweep November. Meanwhile, Auburn would still play Georgia and Alabama. Ole Miss would still play LSU. South Carolina still has Florida and Clemson. Georgia has Auburn and Georgia Tech. Tennessee is in great shape for the finish, and could even snag third if LSU stumbles against Ole Miss and/or Arkansas.
Style doesn't count for much. The teams at the top are all known this season for defense-first football and winning by not turning the ball over. The debates over offensive style are moot this year; keep the ball and stop the other offense and you win.
Talent, however, does. The bottom four teams are the ones who have had the hardest time bringing in talent over the last four years. Given Tennessee's vanishing class of 2007 and their inconsistent recruiting classes since 2005, they are the overachievers of the SEC this year.

Rebel Roundup - 11/10/09

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:41:56 -0000

More photos » by Steve Coleman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tommy West, seen here likely before swearing at children, likely lost whichever game in which this photo was taken. He, a staple in the recent culture of Ole Miss football, was fired yesterday.

Browse more photos »

Tommy West is Fired | Jackson Sun dot Com
Just in time for we Rebels to never play Memphis again, Tigers Head Coach Tommy West was fired yesterday after having only won two games through this point in the season. If you haven't seen his farewell press conference, watch it. It's excellent. West, to me, will always be remembered as the guy who was thiiis close to whacking Jackie Sherrill accross the jaw. We'll not really at all miss you Tommy. Don't let the door knock your ass over on the way out. My only fear is that the Tigers administration could perhaps hire a guy with the coaching prowess to actually better Ed Orgeron--that is, if we didn't wisely drop them from our schedule this season.

LSU @ Ole Miss at 2:30 CST on CBS | Ole Miss Sports dot Com
Shit.

Coach O, Intense Style returning to Oxford | Clarion Ledger
Let's go ahead and get the jokes out of the way while the bait is dangling in my face... Coach O is returning to Oxford. I hope that the Brittany store has stocked up on extra Red Bull ha get it because O has a lot of energy and likely drinks energy drinks. I hope City Grocery has ordered extra shrimp to prepare shrimp dishes for the Orgeron family becuase they are from the southern part of Louisiana which is a shrimp loving region of the country. Lastly, I hope that the Ole Miss linguistics professors are ready to document Orgeron speak because he is oftentimes unintelligible.

There. You happy?

Rocky Top Talk Podcast
I, a mopey, exhausted Ghost of Jay Cutler, was a guest last night. Listen to me do things like try my damndest to not scream about Ed Orgeron, make excuses for Jevan Snead, explain the ~~incredibly stupid~~ mytical origin of my blog handle, all while shackled by Rocky Top Talk's integrity, efficiency, and "no cussin' words" rule.