SB Nation - UAB Blazers

Non-Automatic Qualifying Conference Races

utesfan100 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:52:38 -0000

So on Sunday I broke down the automatic qualifying conference races as part of my BCS analysis. For completeness I will now present the conference races for all remaining conferences.

None are anywhere near as tricky to discern as the PAC 10 was this week.

C-USA:

East:

The ECU and the UAB both control their own fate. S. Miss and UCF are still potential candidates for the championship game.

ECU wins if:

They beat S. Miss and UAB
They beat S. Miss and UCF beats UAB
They beat UAB and Tulsa beats S. Miss

UAB wins if:

They beat ECU and
- UAB beats UCF
- S. Miss beats ECU and Tulsa beats S. Miss and Tulane beats UCF

S. Miss wins if:

They beat ECU and Tulsa and UAB beats ECU or UCF

UCF wins if:

All of the following occur:

They beat UAB and Tulane
ECU loses to S. Miss and UAB
Tulsa beats S. Miss

West:

SMU wins if:

They beat Marshall and Tulane
Houston loses to Memphis and Rice
SMU splits with Marshall and Tulane and Houston splits with Memphis and Rice

Houston wins if:

They beat Memphis and Rice and SMU loses to Marshall or Tulane
They beat Memphis or Rice and SMU loses to Marshall and Tulane

MAC:

North:

C. Michigan and N. Illinois both control their own fate.

C. Michigan wins if:

Beat N. Illinois
Beat Ball State and Ohio beats N. Illinois

N. Illinois wins if:

Beat C. Michigan and
- Beat Ohio
- Ball State beats C. Michigan

South:

Temple and Ohio control their own fate.

Temple wins if:

They beat Ohio
Beat Kent State and N. Illinois beats Ohio

Ohio wins if:

Beat Temple and
- Beat N. Illinois
- Kent State beats Temple and loses to Buffalo

Kent State wins if:

Beat Temple and Buffalo and Ohio beats Temple but loses to N. Illinois

MWC:

TCU wins outright if:

beat Wyoming and New Mexico
beat Wyoming or New Mexico or the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively.

TCU wins a share if:

beat Wyoming or New Mexico
the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively

BYU wins outright if:

Beat Air Force and Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

BYU wins a share if:

Beat Air Force or Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins outright if:

Beat SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins a share if:

Beats SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming or New Mexico

Air Force wins a share if:

Beats BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico and Utah loses to BYU or SDSU

Sun Belt

Troy wins if:

Beat Florida Atlantic or LA Lafayette
The LA Monroe Middle Tennessee St. winner loses to LA Lafayette or Arkansas St. respectively.

LA Monroe wins if:

Beat Arkansa St. and LA Monroe and Troy loses to Florida Atlantic and LA Lafayette

Middle Tennessee St. wins if:

Beat LA Lafayette and Middle Tennessee St. and Troy loses to Florda Atlantic and LA Lafayette

WAC

Boise St. has won the WAC outright.

Notes From Around the College Football World

Nico2.0 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:55:22 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Ken Niumatalolo led Navy to their second win over the Irish in three years.

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Assorted ramblings after week 10 of the season. Alabama analysis will be coming soon...

We hope that Jahvid Best's injury is "only" a concussion and not spinal. That was a seriously nasty spill he took and it was quite scary to watch. You never want to see someone injured and we wish him a speedy recovery.
With Iowa's loss, six undefeateds remain: Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, TCU, Texas
With Iowa's loss, it puts Ohio State back in control of their own destiny to win the Big 10. The Buckeyes and Hawkeyes meet next weekend and the winner still controls their own destiny in the race for the conference title.
Looks like Temple is going bowling for the first time in 30 years.
I don't care if it was against Tulsa, Case Keenum put up some sick numbers against them. 40 of 60 for over 500 yards and he led them to a late comeback.
It was upset city this Saturday for ranked teams: Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon and Cal all lost to teams that were unranked or ranked lower than them. Several others including USC, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin survived scares. Boise State got a bit of scare too on Thursday, but not like the others.
Michigan lost to Purdue to slide to 5-5 for the season. With their remaining two games being at Wisconsin and hosting Ohio State, they Wolverines are likely looking at a 5-7 season and a second season in a row of no bowl game. We really do need to send Rita a gift basket.
You've gotta think Charlie Weiss' days at Notre Dame are numbered. 1-2 against Navy over the last three years (0-2 in South Bend.) I imagine they'll get at least one win out of their remaining three games, but if they lost all three to Pitt, UCONN and Stanford, I wouldn't be terribly surprised either. That would leave them at 6-6.
They must really want USC to win at least a share of the conference championship out in Pac-10 country. The race continues to be tight after Oregon lost to Stanford tonight. Maybe it's just been so long since anyone else has won it that nobody remembers what it's like to play with weekly pressure.
The SEC has five teams that are already bowl eligible (Alabama, Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Auburn.) Though Ole Miss has six wins, two of them are against FBS teams, so only one of them counts towards bowl eligibility. Ole Miss, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky are all one game away and Mississippi State needs to pick up two more wins to go bowling. Vandy, at 2-7 is done on November 28th.
UAB hammered Florida Atlantic to pull to 4-5. With three games left against Memphis, East Carolina and UCF, UAB could get bowl eligible. Even if they didn't get an invite, making it to 6-6 would be huge for them. They probably aren't going to win at East Carolina, so they'll need wins at Memphis and at Legion Field against UCF.
Duke needs one more win to get bowl eligible. It'll be no easy task though, their remaining games are against Georgia Tech, Miami and Wake Forest. It would be their first bowl appearance since 1995. Regardless of whether the Blue Devils go bowling or not, Cutcliffe clearly has them headed in the right direction. In less than two seasons, he's eclipsed Duke's win total over the five previous seasons.
Troy looks on pace to at least share a part of the Sun Belt title for the fourth year in a row.
Don't forget there's more football on TV on Sunday. Nevada at San Jose State on ESPN at 7:30 p.m.

Too Much Information: Georgia Bulldogs v. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

T Kyle King — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:22:25 -0000

If it’s Friday evening, that means the bar is open and it’s time for Too Much Information here at Dawg Sports . . . except that, well, the Georgia Bulldogs are playing the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles. Granted, tomorrow’s visiting team boasts better records than the host squad, both overall (5-3 to the Bulldogs’ 4-4) and in league action (4-2 to Georgia’s 3-3), but the Golden Eagles tee it up in the Division I-AA Ohio Valley Conference.

Accordingly, there’s not a whole lot to say that hasn’t been said already, either by Doug or by Lindsey. Nevertheless, I will do my best to bring you not a pinch of perspective or a dash of data, but, rather, to load you up with . . . Too Much Information:

Odds and Ends

Andy Landers, the head basketball coach of the Lady Bulldogs, is a Tennessee Tech alum. Watson Brown, the head football coach of the Golden Eagles, played for the Vanderbilt Commodores (1969-1972) and was the head coach both at his alma mater (1986-1990) and at UAB (1995-2006). During those 21 seasons, Coach Brown was 0-11 against the Red and Black.

The Golden Eagles have been outscored 52-19 in the third quarter this season. The Bulldogs have been outscored 74-42 in the third quarter this season, making the first 15 minutes following the break the Classic City Canines’ worst quarter, both offensively and defensively.

This will be the second series meeting between Georgia and Tennessee Tech. The first came in 1943, a year in which the ‘Dawgs were coming off of back-to-back New Year’s Day bowl wins yet stumbled to a six-win season featuring a close loss to the LSU Tigers and a lopsided defeat suffered at the hands of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. Sound familiar? (All right, I’m projecting ahead a little bit on the six-win season and the lopsided loss to the Engineers at Grant Field, but, come on, does anyone doubt the inevitability of both of those outcomes this year?) Gridiron historians have blamed the Bulldogs’ 1943 stumble on the fact that World War II cost the Classic City Canines all of their 1942 starters and forced the Red and Black to field a club made up of freshmen too young for the draft and players who were ineligible to serve in the armed forces because they were declared 4-F, but it’s starting to look more likely that scheduling Tennessee Tech is just plain bad luck. (Along similar lines, any season in which Georgia plays Georgia Southern while expecting to contend for a national championship will end in horrible disappointment for the ‘Dawgs!)

How weak is Georgia’s rushing attack? Fullback Fred Munzenmaier has the same number of rushing touchdowns as leading rusher Richard Samuel. In fact, Munzenmaier has as many rushing touchdowns as Washaun Ealey, Caleb King, and Branden Smith combined. On the plus side, the Bulldogs give what they get where the ground game is concerned: Georgia averages 3.6 yards per carry and has scored six rushing touchdowns, but the Red and Black allow 3.8 yards per carry and have surrendered seven rushing touchdowns.

The last time Tennessee Tech took on an SEC squad, the Eagles lost at Auburn by a 35-3 margin in 2007. The last time Tennessee Tech took on a Division I-A opponent, the Eagles lost at Kansas State by a 49-7 margin on September 26.

A 1998 episode of "Sports Night" was entitled "The Six Southern Gentlemen of Tennessee Tech." This installment of the show was about a fictitious football team in the Volunteer State, and, despite the episode’s title, the make-believe school referred to by the characters was "Tennessee Western University," which supposedly was located in Chattanooga, which is in the southeastern portion of the state, near the northern border of Georgia. When the tenth anniversary DVD box set was released, the episode title had been changed to "The Six Southern Gentlemen of Tennessee," but, if you own the original DVD release (as I do), you know the original title. Presumably, screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (a brilliant playwright and scriptwriter, but also a man whose laughable ignorance concerning the South causes his characters from below the Mason-Dixon line to be caricatures more often than characters, the delightful Ainsley Hayes notably excepted) originally wrote the episode thinking Tennessee Tech was his fictional creation and changed it after someone pointed out to him that such a school actually exists.

The Feel ~~Good~~ Bad Stat of the Week

Where, you may ask, is the Feel Good Stat of the Week? There is no Feel Good Stat of the Week. I’m trying something new. Call it the power of negative thinking.

Positive thinking has gotten us nowhere lately. I was upbeat heading into last season, and look at what a disaster that turned out to be. I let all of you talk me into letting Manic Kyle out of the box before previewing the season opener against the Oklahoma St. Cowboys, and that didn’t work out for us. I went against my better judgment and put a positive spin on the stats before the Bulldogs took on the Tennessee Volunteers, and that game was a total train wreck. Finally, I believed a win in Jacksonville was inevitable, only to have the Florida Gators deal the ‘Dawgs a soul-crushing, program-altering beatdown.

No more. The era of good feelings is at an end. It is time to be dour, dejected, depressed, and dispirited. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here as you note well the Feel Bad Stat of the Week:

2009 represents the twelfth season in Georgia history in which the Bulldogs have posted a 4-4 record through eight games. The previous eleven such occasions were in 1925, 1928, 1929, 1936, 1939, 1951, 1955, 1970, 1979, 1990, and 1993. In the ninth contests of those respective seasons, the Red and Black went 4-6-1.

When you expect the worst, your only options are to be proven correct or pleasantly surprised.

The Bottom Line

You know, I know, and the American people know exactly how this game is going to go. The ‘Dawgs are going to play sloppy, lackluster, disinterested football while building up a solid but not overwhelming lead on big plays made by virtue of superior talent rather than sharp execution. The Golden Eagles will give the Bulldogs a few nervous moments in the third quarter, when the home team gets lazy, the home crowd goes quiet, and the visitors make a special teams gambit pay off with a fake punt, blocked punt, fake field goal, surprise onside kick, or big return using a freaky formation.

How do I know this? Because I’ve seen this game every single time a Sun Belt squad or Division I-AA opponent has played between the hedges for the last decade or so. We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends.

My Prediction: Georgia 38, Tennessee Tech 17.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Five College Football Games to Watch: Week 8

Nico2.0 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:25:05 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Joe Webb will be on a regional broadcast that most of you will not see.

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We're now past the half way point in the season (I'll give you all a moment to pause and weep at that thought....) and things are weird. We already have a three loss Oklahoma and a two loss Ohio State among other oddities. I imagine you'd have to go back quite a way to find that happening at the same time this early in the season. There's also a lot of one loss teams that are ranked, but that have looked really vulnerable at times: Penn State, LSU, BYU, Georgia Tech, etc. With that in mind, this isn't a super stellar week for games. I've kind of been scratching my head over which games to pick all week and honestly considered scrapping the whole thing for the week. There are several games that probably looked really interesting when they were scheduled for TV or that look good historically, but aren't particularly compelling with the way things are shaking out (Florida State at North Carolina for example.) Now that the BCS rankings are out,I'm using those rankings instead of the AP. As always, all times listed are Central. Here's ~~your Top 5~~ my Top 5 non-Bama games of Week 8 of the 2009 college football season:

UAB at MARSHALL
Saturday, October 24th - 11:00 a.m. - CSS

This pick is for Todd & I and the reason I put a strike through "Your Top 5" in the paragraph above. There's simply not a lot on this week that's going to get a consensus from the masses. I was trying to be as objective as possible, but it's just a bunch of dreck this week. What was I going to choose instead, Minnesota at Ohio State? UCONN at West Virginia? Oklahoma State at Baylor? Louisville at Cincinnati? Oklahoma at Kansas? All those games feature ranked teams and I have zero interest in them so I'm getting selfish this week.

UAB and Marshall are tied for 2nd in the CUSA East right now (along with Southern Miss) despite vastly different overall records: Marshall is at 4-3 (2-1) and UAB is at 2-4 (2-1). A win here keeps the Blazers in the hunt for winning the East. Now that they've gotten their first win over Southern Miss, the sky's the limit despite taking several bad out of conference beatings. Their one conference loss (to SMU) was a close won and they've won their other two conference games convincingly. UAB won last year's game in Birmingham and a road win here would do wonders for their division title hopes.

TCU (8) at BYU (16)
Saturday, October 24th - 6:30 p.m. - Versus

The only game of Week 8 between two ranked teams is on a channel that a lot of people probably don't even get. I haven't seen TCU play yet and have only seen parts of two BYU games (Oklahoma and Florida State.) After getting shanked by FSU, BYU's BCS-busting hopes are washed up, but TCU's are still alive and kicking (if Boise loses that is.)

FLORIDA (1) at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Saturday, October 24th - 6:30 p.m. - ESPN

I haven't seen Mississippi State play yet except for bits and pieces of their game against Auburn. Since they're coming up on the schedule, I figured I'd have a look. Another thing worth noting, this certainly shows the power of the SEC contract with ESPN. I know Florida's #1 and all, but they're playing a 3-4 team in prime time?

AUBURN at LSU (9)
Saturday, October 24th - 6:30 p.m. - ESPN2

Not too many years ago, this was THE game in the SEC West. The winner of this one could pretty much book their ticket to Atlanta. That's not the case anymore, but it's still a game that stirs interest from us as they're two of our main rivals. Though highly unlikely and hanging by a thread, Auburn's hopes for Atlanta are still technically alive. If they could win here, then win out and have Alabama lose another conference game, they'd be in a good position. With losses to Arkansas and Kentucky under their belts already though, that probably isn't happening. LSU haven't exactly looked like world beaters though despite their Top 10 ranking, so who knows...maybe the Barn's faint hopes will be kept alive.

OREGON STATE at USC (7)
Saturday, October 24th - 7:00 p.m. - ABC/ESPN Gameplan

I imagine this game will be on Gameplan for those of us in Alabama (it's up against Texas at Missouri), but I'm including it because USC has struggled against teams with "Oregon" in their name over the last three seasons. Those struggles typically only occur when playing in the state of Oregon, where they haven't won a game since 2005 (which is good new for the Ducks later this year.)

So...yeah...not exactly a weekend of must see games. After the Bama game on Saturday, this is as good of a time as there will probably be this season to help strengthen the relationships you strain every year during football season by skipping out on the rest of the day and showing them that you can, in fact, get up off of the couch on Saturdays.

Poll

Which of these games are you most interested in?

UAB at Marshall

10 votes

TCU at BYU

14 votes

Florida at Mississippi State

49 votes

Auburn at LSU

485 votes

Oregon State at USC

16 votes

574 votes | Poll has closed

UAB 13 @ Ole Miss 48 - Numbers - EDIT: Drive Chart Added

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 15:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Mississippi kick returner Jesse Grandy (10) sprints past UAB defender Jim Mitchell (40) on his way to returning the opening kickoff 88-yards for a touchdown.

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Y'all know the deal. We're hardly casual Rebels. On Autumn Saturdays we do things like actually go to the games, eat and drink until we regret it, drink some more to shoo the regret away, and party with you fair readers. As such, we're likely never to have information and analysis immediately after the game and, if we were to, it sure as shit wouldn't be lurid.

So Whiskey Wednesday will give his impressions soon. I'll share some numbers and my thoughts thereon.

DISCLAIMER: UAB IS NOT GOOD. DO NOT LET ANY OF THIS EXCITE YOU TOO MUCH.

We were pretty efficient on third downs, going 8 of 13. I am curious as to how that will translate against an Arkansas team which, as our Rebels, is still pretty hard to figure out.
We had a whopping 150 more yards offensively than the Blazers. Much of their yards came off of Joe Webb scrambles as he tallied 121 yards on the ground. Joe Webb, by the way, may be the single most elusive SOB we're going to play all season. He wiggled out of tough situations as if he were dipped in bacon grease before every play.
The Joe Webb show did allow the Blazers to outgain us on the ground, but they did have several more rushing attempts than our Rebels. Furthermore, we did not have as many big running plays as they. We had a few (Bolden's run comes to mind) but hardly what Joe Webb was able to somehow accomplish.
Joe Webb's pick thrown to Jeremy McGee in the Rebel endzone was the game's only turnover.
Jevan Snead looked pretty good, albeit against the nation's worst passing defense. 15-22, 240YDS, 3TD, 0INT is a good line. It could have been better, had some receivers caught balls that hit them, you know, in their hands. I know it was cold and all, but step it up, Rebel wideouts.
Nathan Stanley also looked damn fine, throwing for 98 yards in the fourth quarter and being a dropped Melvin Harris pass away (the throw was good, Harris only got one hand on the ball though) from having thrown two touchdowns. As we at the Cup have said for the past two seasons now, this guy has great touch on deep routes.
Rodney Scott, thank you. You squatty, muscley, fearless freshman you. Not only has your arrival done things like make Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis play harder, but you have now decided to supplement your presence with a couple of touchdowns on 6.3YPC.

Those are the numbers. Whiskey Wednesday with the strategic, emotional, and cultural observations soon.

EDIT: Drive Chart from Rocky Top Talk added. As you can see, our Rebs sarted out slowly, progressing the drives a bit more each time, before scoring on five straight drives.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Week 7 Preview: Who Chooses Those Games of the Week Anyway?

cocknfire — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 06:23:04 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Not this week, Steve.

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The Weekend Open Thread will start at 11 a.m. ET.

THE GAME OF THE WEEK?
No. 21 South Carolina at No. 1 Alabama, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

I have to say I was a little perplexed when South Carolina and Alabama both won and CBS chose to air ... the Arkansas-Florida game? One of these games features two teams in the Top 25, both of which currently sit at either first or second in their division. The other doesn't. Arkansas' win against Auburn was an encouraging sign for the season, sure. But the Razorbacks are still sub-.500 in the SEC and aren't incredibly likely to change that Saturday.

Not that South Carolina has a lot of reasons to be optimistic about its trip to Tuscaloosa. The last time the Gamecocks visited in Tuscaloosa, they won, but that was in the 2004 season that saw both teams end up barely bowl eligible (South Carolina didn't go because of the brawl against Clemson later that year). This time, they face a team that is a near-lock for the SEC West title just six weeks into the season and a national title contender as well.

There are some reasons for the potential upset buzz you will hear from some corners -- and, no, I'm not counting Lou Holtz. The Gamecocks are almost hidden in Alabama's schedule between the trip to Ole Miss last week and the home date with Tennessee next week. Then a bye week and the showdown with LSU. If there's game on its schedule that Alabama could overlook against a team good enough to capitalize on that, it's South Carolina.

South Carolina's only hope would be to allow its defense to keep the game relatively close and either take an early, tenuous lead or to make a big play late in the game to come away with the upset. If the Alabama offense is allowed to get a quick and sizable lead, it's hard to see the Gamecocks being able to catch up against the Tide's solid defense.

Even that plan, though, seems to be an uphill battle. Alabama is simply better than South Carolina on offense and defense. And while this is something of a trap game for the Tide, that only means the final score would be closer than it should be.

Alabama 21, South Carolina 20

THE 'TELEVISION SAYS' GAME OF THE WEEK
Arkansas at No. 2 Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

I don't want to totally blow off the game in Gainesville. It has some intriguing plotlines of its own, including whether the Arkansas defense's star turn against Auburn last week was the signs of some return to competence and whether the Gators really can flip the switch on offense and score enough points to win a shootout if they have to. It's the "if they have to" part that it somewhat in doubt.

Aside from the Alabama game, the Razorbacks have yet to face a team ranked higher than 49th in pass defense and 67th in total defense. And we all saw what happened against Alabama, which has something far closer to Florida's best in the nation pass and total defense than any other opponent Arkansas has faced. That gives us something to compare.

What I'm interested to see in this game is Florida. I'm still not entirely sold on the Gators from a resume standpoint, and most of the impressiveness is still a mixture of what they've done and what I think about them given the state of the program. They have, by my count, played five quarters of great football: The first quarter against Kentucky and then the LSU game. Everything else has been filler and not very impressive filler at that. I would like to see them just one annihilate a team that's halfway decent, like Arkansas, just to prove to me that they can.

Florida 38, Arkansas 7

REBOUND?
Kentucky at No. 24 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Both of these teams had heartbreaking defeats last week in different senses of the word. For the Wildcats, it was the loss against South Carolina after failing to make a two-point conversion that would have tied the game and forced overtime. For the Tigers, it was a loss to Arkansas that ended their so-far undefeated season.

Auburn is a team that you've probably read quite a bit about: A great offense paired with a defense that still brings almost as many questions to each game as it does players. But 5-1 at the halfway point is still 5-1 and is already light-years ahead of what we would have expected from this team at the end of last year's denouement for the Tuberville Era. And it will probably take a better team than Kentucky to capitalize on a weak defense.

That's because UK just isn't very good on offense. Sure, facing defenses like Florida, Alabama and South Carolina will hurt anyone's numbers, but you have to gain more than 334.8 ypg to win games even in the defense-heavy SEC. Especially if you're allowing the other team to gain 354.8.

Auburn 32, Kentucky 14

'LET'S HOPE IT'S NOT 2006 JUST YET'
Georgia at Vanderbilt, 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Georgia fans aren't universally thrilled (or in agreement) with your humble correspondent's take on the comparisons between this year and 2006, but I think they can all agree that they don't want Georgia to have the same success against Vanderbilt that the Dawgs had three years ago. Because they lost.

There is absolutely no reason for that to happen this year. I'm sorry, Vanderbilt fans, but that's a pretty awful football team you have there. I don't mean that in a snide or hurtful way; it looks like one of those situations where it's not necessarily anybody's fault or a case of awful coaches or awful players. It just seems that when you put all the elements together, things turn a touch disappointing.

I mean, 87th nationally in total offense? (Georgia is 97th. I see.) And sure, the defense is good at 22nd in the country, but this Georgia we're talking about here. (They're 75th in total defense. Ah.) Georgia fans are going to hate me for this, but I have to pick an upset somewhere.

Vanderbilt 13, Georgia 10

THERE'S ONLY ONE REASON TO WATCH THIS GAME
Mississippi State at Middle Tennessee State, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

How anyone convinced ESPNU to air this game instead of pawning it off on FSN or pay-per-view is beyond me, but the one network that airs SEC games that I don't get can have it. The only possible reason to even look at this game -- which is scheduled against Georgia at Vanderbilt and the Red River Shootout (no, I'm not calling it the Red River Rivalry anymore than I'm going to stop calling it the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party) -- is to see if Anthony Dixon breaks the State record for career rushing yards.

If you're interested in history like that and you have ESPNU, watch away. But then do yourself a favor and turn on one of the real games.

Mississippi State 34, Middle Tennessee State 12

AT LEAST THAT'S ONE MORE REASON THAN FOR THIS GAME ...
UAB at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET, FSN

I can think of literally nothing to recommend this game. I'm sorry; it's a mediocre SEC team against one of the historically bad programs of the last decade. It might be nice to see if Jevan Snead can finally recover, but we've been waiting for that for a long time.

Ole Miss 35, UAB 3

Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC

T Kyle King — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:23:54 -0000

Ordinarily, I would be inclined to say that my 3-3 record in last week’s SEC prognostications sucks, but, fortunately, I have been enlightened this week regarding the new reality that 3-3 actually represents mere mediocrity with a heavy dose of positive progress! My season-long record for league forecasts now stands at 38-5, but last week’s ~~lousy~~ encouraging performance at least provides some suggestion that you should heed my usual advice: Don’t Bet On It!

Here is this week’s Southeastern Conference slate, which, alas, does not feature a game involving the Tennessee Volunteers, because, on the seventh Saturday, Lane Kiffin rested. Hey, a fellow deserves a break after a program-defining breakthrough triumph over the team ranked eleventh in the league in pass defense, eleventh in the league in total defense, and twelfth in the league in scoring defense. The rest of the SEC, however, will be taking part in the following contests this Saturday:

UAB Blazers at Mississippi Rebels: The last time someone tried to arrange a football game between the Blazers and the Rebels was at Berkeley in the 1960s, when, instead of taking the field against one another, the Rebels began protesting the gridiron ground-acquisition game as a militaristic metaphor for U.S. involvement in Southeast Asia and the Blazers got high and asked each other if they’d ever really looked at a football. This time, I’m pretty sure there will be a game and I’m pretty sure Ole Miss will win it.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders: Mississippi State, we need to talk. You’re a Southeastern Conference football program. You’ve just hired Dan Mullen, who has brought new energy and new credibility to your school. You’re trying to establish yourself as something other than a perennial bottom-feeder. You’re playing on the road . . . against a Sun Belt team . . . whose name was misspelled on page 64 of this year’s Lindy’s SEC preview magazine (I’m just saying; if they’d misspelled Florida, someone would have caught it) . . . and whose mascot looks like this:

Mississippi State, it is time to rethink your entire approach. We’ll talk more after the Bulldogs beat the Blue Raiders.

Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers: Did you know that Kentucky ranks ahead of Auburn in pass defense, total defense, scoring defense, and first downs allowed? The Wildcats had better be ready to play some defense, because the Plainsmen lead the league in total offense and trail only the Gators in scoring offense and rushing offense. If you know anything about college football, or if you learned how to spell while earning a sociology degree from the Alabama Polytechnic Institute, you know that there is more O in the Tigers than there is D in the Wildcats. I’m taking the home team. I hate Auburn.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators: I’m guessing Bobby Petrino won’t be changing planes in Atlanta on the flight from Fayetteville to Gainesville. I don’t mean to take anything away from the Razorbacks, who clearly are on the upswing, but this game is going to be a basic National Geographic Channel documentary. If you send a drove of swine into a swamp to tangle with a congregation of alligators, well, you’re going to have some stuffed Gators lazing around after feasting on pork.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide: If this game were being played in Columbia, I might be temped to pick Steve Spurrier and the Palmetto State Poultry to sneak up on Nick Saban and spring a nasty surprise on the Tide. (I swear, Gamecock Man, I’m not setting you up for a fall!) In Tuscaloosa, though, there’s no chance of ‘Bama being upset by a solid but not superb South Carolina squad. There’s simply no way a chicken can hope to beat an elephant if the elephant has home field advantage. The Gamecocks will hang tough for three quarters and probably will give Alabama the best game the putative Western Division champions have gotten all season, but, in the end, the Tide will roll.

Feel free to find fault with my conference forecasts in the comments below, but please be sure to heed my usual warning. Whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Texas A&M - UAB Game Drive Chart

Beergut — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:50:10 -0000

As always, thanks to Joel at RockyTopTalk for making these charts available to us. My apologies for waiting so long to post this; it should have gone up yesterday.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

The most interesting thing to me is that after our first three-and-out, we reached the endzone on 7 of our next 8 possessions, the time expiring being the only thing that stopped our offense. Hopefully, we can have similar success against Arkansas, but it'd be nice if we could start faster, and score the first time we have the ball.

UAB Postgame Stat Review

Beergut — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:23:44 -0000

Final - 9.26.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
UAB Blazers	3	3	6	7	19
Texas A&M Aggies	7	21	14	14	56

Complete Coverage >

SB Nation Full Boxscore

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Passing					Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Jerrod Johnson	23	29	80.0	290	3	14	61	4.4	3

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Cyrus Gray	19	99	5.2	1	1	0	0	0

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Receiving
	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Howard Morrow	5	71	14.2	0

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Receiving
	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Jamie McCoy	5	59	11.8	0

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Passing					Receiving
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
Ryan Tannehill	1	1	100.0	8	0	3	101	33.7	1

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Receiving
	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Ryan Swope	2	12	6.0	1

First fo all, it has to be mentioned that Jerrod has broken set another school record, becoming the first Aggie QB to have three passing and three rushing TDs in the same game. Cyrus Gray stepped up big; Gray and Johnson were the Aggies' running game, combining for 160 of the team's 236 total rushing yards (68% of their production). Jamie McCoy and Howard Morrow were two of Jerrod's favorite targets, with 5 receptions each. Ryan Swope finally broke into the stat column, garnering his first career reception and his first TD catch. Ryan Tannehill was his usual awesome self, but the big thing to me is that Jerrod hit other receivers (McCoy among them) on third down, so he's not just focusing on Tannehill; he is spreading the ball around.

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Tackles			Sacks		Interceptions
	Solo	Ast	Total	Sacks	Yds	Int	Yds	IntTD
Von Miller	3	2	5	2	8	0	0	0

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Tackles			Sacks		Interceptions
	Solo	Ast	Total	Sacks	Yds	Int	Yds	IntTD
Matt Featherston	2	1	3	1	7	0	0	0

vs UAB / 9.26.09	Tackles			Sacks		Interceptions
	Solo	Ast	Total	Sacks	Yds	Int	Yds	IntTD
Eddie Brown	3	2	5	1	5	0	0	0

Von Miller turned in another solid performance, but the big news in his backup, Matt Featherston, getting his first sack of the season. We apparently had both Featherston and Miller on the field at the same time on some downs, an alignment I was hoping for in the offseason. I think they make a fearsome duo in the pass rush.

Eddie Brown had another solid outing, collecting 5 tackles and his first sack of the season. Brown, Featherston, and Miller combined for all four sacks in the game, a nice accomplishment on a dual-threat QB like Joe Webb. We're going to need a good [pass rush next week in the Southwest Classic against Ryan Mallett and Arkansas.

Overall, you have to be happy with the way this game turned out. We got the blowout win we needed, we were able ot get some more players involved in the offense and defense, and we didn't have any significant injuries.

Alabama-Birmingham Statistical Preview

Beergut — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:57:46 -0000

Let's take a look at the University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers:

The first player you need to know about is senior QB Joe Webb.

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - Joe Webb	3	73.0	44	77	57.1	561	187	7.3	5	5	57	367	122.3	6.4	3	-	-

Webb is both the team leader in passing and rushing; he is basically their whole offense. The bad news is that he is an effective dual threat QB, averaging 309 yds per game total offense, rushing and passing. The good news is that he hurts his own team as much as he helps it, with his 5 TD passes being offset by his 5 interceptions.

Webb's favorite targets are WR Frantrell Forrest

G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD	KR	YDS	AVG	Lng	TD	PR	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD
	Receiving							Kickoff Returns					Punt Returns
3	10	165	55.0	16.5	3	4	91	22.8	26	0	0	0	0	0	0

and TE Jeffrey Anderson

G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD	KR	YDS	AVG	Lng	TD	PR	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD
	Receiving							Kickoff Returns					Punt Returns
3	9	136	45.3	15.1	2	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Together, they are responsible for 53% of his passing yardage, and all of his TD passes.

When Webb isn't carrying the ball, Dexter Barnett is the one he hands off to.

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
2009 - Dexter Barnett	3	15	58	19.3	3.9	1	3	3	1	1	0

Controlling Webb and Barnett will be the key to shutting down the Blazers running game.

Defensively, the Blazers are pedestrian to poor, giving up an average of 459.7 yds per game total offense (126 rushing, 333.7 passing), and allowing opponents to score 28.7 points per game on them. Defensively, the Blazers are led by CB Terell Springs and S Chase Daniel (apparently Missouri's former QB has been located after he disappeared off the Washington Redskins roster). I've always said when your top two tacklers on defense are members of your secondary, you have some real issues on defense, and UAB has some real issues on their defense.

Offensively, our no-huddle spread attack should be able to move the ball and score on UAB's defense. We should be able to run the ball, and we should be able to go to the air early and often. With Jeff Fuller injured, I expect us to go to Uzoma Nwachukwu, Jamie McCoy, Howard Morrow, and Kenric McNeal often as we work on building depth and try to replace his production.

Defensively, we need to focus on containing Webb, so he isn't able to run wild and move the chains. We need to force the Give read in their option game, so we can target stopping Dexter Barnett. If we can cover Forrest and Anderson in the passing game, we should be able to slow their passing game, and force Webb to go to his other receivers.

Ultimately, I think we'll win this game somewhere along the lines of 42-20.