SB Nation - Central Florida Golden Knights

Ranking The 2009-2010 Bowls: Part 1

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:10:59 -0000

Everyone and their grandma has been ranking the bowls......Except for me. So I figured that I should jump in on all the fun, and talk about the 2nd season of College Football: "Bowl Season".

Now, I am in the camp of those who think there are just way too many bowl games. I'm not going to lie. It takes quite a bit to get me hyped up for a bowl game. To be honest, almost every year I set out to try and watch every bowl game, and every year I end up watching a handful of bowls, but mostly college basketball.

This year, I'm not making any promises like that, especially when it's quite possible I'll be going down to Tempe for the bowl game. At the same time, I will make the effort of watching a handful of games, and I figured I would share my process of elimination with you, by doing a countdown of bowl games that I am looking forward to most.

In Part 1 of this three part series, I'm going to countdown the 14 bowls that I find the least exciting. I'd characterize this group by saying that I could watch some of these games, but I'm certainly not rearranging my life to watch them. I can safely say that if I somehow did not watch a single game from this group, I wouldn't be too disappointed.

#34: New Orleans Bowl (Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State), 12/20/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

I have absolutley no reason to get excited about this game at all. I thought Southern Miss would be a better team than they were, but they ended up being just another 7-5 midmajor. If you're hardcore, on paper these teams look pretty even in regards to scoring. It could be a close game. Accuscore has Southern Miss as a 54% favorite. Whatifsports.com has Southern Miss, just edging the victory as well. Fortunatley for me, the Vikings play the Panthers on that Sunday night, so I will be watching that as well.

#33: New Mexico Bowl (Fresno State vs. Wyoming), 12/19/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

There have been years in the past, when I've flicked on the game, because it's the 1st one in the season, and it's been a bit of a novelty. Usually, I can't watch past the 1st quarter. This year, I will probably try and attempt the same thing, but will end up doing something else. Not a knock on Fresno State which is a decent team, but moreso on Wyoming. On paper, this has the makings of a blowout. With Fresno State, you have one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 436 yards/game and about 34 points scored. With Wyoming, you have one of the worst offenses, averaging 298 yards/game, and about 17 points scored.

#32: Little Caesar's Bowl (Marshall vs. Ohio), 12/26/2009, Noon CST, ESPN

What ranks this game here as opposed to last, is probably the fact that Marshall has a new head coach from the regular season now. Since there is a "craziness" possibility to this game, I may watch the first few series.

#31: Hawaii Bowl (Nevada vs. SMU), 12/24/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

The biggest thing this game has going for it, is that there is no College Basketball at all that night, no other College Football that night, and no NBA either. There is a Chargers vs. Titans game on the NFL Network, but that's it as far as sports go. People wanting their sports fix might be tuning into this one. Or maybe they will do something with their families on Christmas Eve (for those that celebrate it).

#30: GMAC Bowl (Central Michigan vs. Troy), 1/6/2010, 6pm CST, ESPN

This actually is a decent matchup among mid-majors. It really is. The biggest problem with this bowl is that it's sandwiched right between the Orange Bowl and the BCS Championship Game. I might watch some of it, as I wait for the Iowa State vs. Duke game, but that's about it.

#29: St. Petersburg Bowl (UCF vs. Rutgers), 12/19/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

I know Rutgers is 8-4, but they went 3-4 in the Big East. Also, this is practically a homegame for UCF. Just not a lot about this game to sell me on.

#28: EagleBank Bowl (UCLA vs. Temple), 12/29/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Can't say much about this one, other than I'm probably not going to watch it.

#27: International Bowl (South Florida vs. Northern Illinois), 1/2/2010, 11am CST, ESPN2

I don't think I've ever watched the International Bowl and this matchup isn't really changing the chances of that happening for me.

#26: Armed Forces Bowl (Houston vs. Air Force), 12/31/2009, 11am CST, ESPN

The thick of the CUSA schedule exposed Houston as a paper tiger, it could be a close game. It is an interesting matchup in Houston has the best pass offense in the nation, while Air Force has the best pass defense in the nation. There's not enough there for me to take an interest, especially if I'm in Tempe getting ready for the Insight Bowl.

#25: Alamo Bowl (Michigan State vs. Texas Tech), 1/2/2010, 8pm CST, ESPN

Michigan State is a disappointment this year. I think many thought they had an outside shot to compete for the Big 10, and instead they finish 6-6. To add insult to injury, they also suspended 8 guys and kicked 2 off the team for some off the field drama. There's no reason why Texas Tech shouldn't roll this team by 21.

#24: Meineke Car Care Bowl (Pitt vs. UNC), 12/26/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

On paper, Pitt should roll UNC. I just wonder how they will play coming off that disappointing loss to Cincy. It seems like when a team gets snubbed or loses a tough championship game like that, they don't come in ready to play.

UNC is just manic with their play. Some weeks they look great and beat Virginia Tech, while others they are losing to NC-State. Overall, I see the makings of a potentially sloppy game

#23: Humanitarian Bowl (Bowling Green vs. Idaho), 12/30/2009, 3:30pm CST, ESPN

Watch the weather forecast for this one. If it's a clear, calm day, it's going to be a shootout with my man Freddie Barnes tearing it up, and I'm going to want to watch it! If it's blizzard conditions, or just a day condusive to running the ball a lot, this bowl belongs in the #34-30 range.

#22: Music City Bowl (Kentucky vs. Clemson), 12/27/2009, 7:30pm CST, ESPN

C.J. Spiller is the reason to watch this game. If you haven't seen him play before this would be a good spot to see him as I have a feeling he'll have a big game in this one. Kentucky has a bad rush defense. That said, I see this as a Clemson romp, so I'm not exactly expecting a good game from this one.

#21: Papajohns.com Bowl (South Carolina vs. UConn), 1/2/2010, 1pm CST, ESPN

South Carolina really perplexes me. Spurrier is supposed to be this offensive genius, but South Carolina seems to have had sucky offenses since he took over. I'm rooting for UConn in this one. With everything they've gone through this season, how nice would it be to see the Huskies get a bowl victory?

In Part 2 of this series, I will count down the next tier of bowl games in terms of what I'm looking forward to. Look for that on Tuesday. In the meantime, feel free to join in on the conversation.

Don't Bet On It!: College Football Bowl Edition (Part I)

T Kyle King — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 01:53:51 -0000

The outcome of this afternoon’s Army-Navy game finalized the Division I-A postseason lineup, so now we are able to begin (albeit not end; there are a lot of these games, you know) taking a look at this year’s bowl pairings. My 4-3 record in last weekend’s predictions brought me to 69-16 (.812) in SEC forecasts, 35-33 (.515) in non-conference prognostications, and 104-49 (.680) in overall picks for 2009. Perhaps now would be a good time to remind you . . . Don’t Bet On It!

Here are the first four games of the 2009 bowl season, the earliest of which will occur only one week from today (which hopefully will keep tankertoad’s Saturday from sucking):

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno St. Bulldogs v. Wyoming Cowboys (Dec. 19): All right, seriously, this isn’t a rematch of a conference game? I genuinely find that hard to believe. The Cowboys will arrive in Albuquerque fresh from a 6-6 season that included losses to the Texas Longhorns, Colorado Buffaloes, Brigham Young Cougars, and TCU Horned Frogs by margins of 31, 24, 52, and 35 points, respectively. Wyoming simply hasn’t so much as shown up against anyone even passably good. The West Coast Bulldogs are passably good.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl: Central Florida Golden Knights v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Dec. 19): On a day we all spent watching the Army Black Knights put forth a pretty good first-half effort in an attempt to earn a bowl bid, we now find ourselves confronting the prospect of two more groups of color-coded paladins squaring off in the postseason. It’s almost as though the Nike guys in charge of the Oregon Ducks’ uniforms were digitally enhancing the costumes in "Excalibur." I don’t know whether this one will begin with a coin toss or a jousting tournament, but I’m confident it will end with a Rutgers victory.

New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders v. Southern Miss. Golden Eagles (Dec. 20): Really, now, you can’t be telling me this isn’t a rematch of a conference game, can you? I mean, I’ve been in Sanford Stadium to see the Georgia Bulldogs up the integer in the left-hand side of their ledger against both of these teams. Then again, I’ve also been in the Classic City to see the Red and Black come up short against one of these teams, so that’s the one I’m picking to win. Southern Miss annually opens the season as the No. 25 team on my BlogPoll ballot in a nod to Matt Hinton and the Golden Eagles will end this season with a win.

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU Cougars v. Oregon St. Beavers (Dec. 22): Two things about this game continue to baffle me. First of all, if the bowl in Nashville is the Music City Bowl and the bowl in Detroit used to be the Motor City Bowl, shouldn’t the bowl in Las Vegas be the Sin City Bowl? Secondly, how strange is it that this bowl keeps playing host to Brigham Young, a school whose student-athletes consider caffeine morally objectionable? I’m not sure whether Oregon State’s presence in this game attests more to the depth of the Pac-10 as a conference or the crummy quality of the league’s postseason tie-ins, but, either way, if what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, then what’s staying in Vegas is a Beaver beatdown of the overrated Cougars.

You know, I know, and the American people know that I’m flying blind on these early predictions, so, even if you find that my forecasts make sense to you in the later games, that should not cause you to place faith in my initial set of prognostications. Simply stated, whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!

Go ‘Dawgs!

2009 St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF vs. Rutgers

utesfan100 — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:07:31 -0000

More photos » by Rich Schultz - AP

10 days ago: Rutgers running back Joe Martinek (38) gets a first down against West Virginia during the second half of an NCAA college football game at Rutgers Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. Saturday, Dec. 5, 2009. West Virginia defeated Rutgers 24-21. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

Browse more photos »

December 19th 2009, 8:00 ET - ESPN

This year's St. Petersburg Bowl will finish an ESPN bowl opening day double header. Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Central Florida Golden Knights will duel for the honor of their colors in the Tampa Bay Devil Ray's home field Tropicana Field. UCF decisively won the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl last year.

Rutgers played in the first football game ever while UCF first fielded a team thirty years ago. UCF has only been an FBS team since 1996.

This will be the first meeting of these two teams on the grid iron. How do these compare this year?

General

	UCF Golden Knights	Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Current Top 25 Faced	#2 Texas (3-35) #15 Miami (7-27)	#3 Cincinnati (15-47) #16 West Virginia (21-24) #17 Pittsburgh (17-24)
Ranking	#52	#45
Record	8-4	8-4

Rutgers has played more ranked teams but UCF has the best win when they knocked Houston out of the top 25.

Rutgers has the lead in the polls but at this point in the polls a 7 spot lead is not very meaningful. The difference in each teams average is 5 ranking spots with a standard deviation over 8 for each.

UCF's Ball

	UCF Offense	Rutgers Defense
Points	26.3	17.4
Yards	348.0	312.2
Per Play	5.26	4.92
Rushing	138.5	108.92
Per Play	3.69	3.18
Passing	209.5	203.3
Per Play	7.31	6.95
Turnovers	1.5	2.3

Both teams have faced similar opposition so these numbers should be representative of what we will see. This offense and defense are very evenly matched giving a very good idea of what to expect.

Rutgers's Ball

	UCF Defense	Rutgers Offense
Points	20.7	27.5
Yards	348.1	321.8
Per Play	5.15	5.14
Rushing	82.5	138.4
Per Play	2.58	3.67
Passing	265.6	183.4
Per Play	7.48	7.36
Turnovers	2.7	1.0

Again, little difference here gives a very clear picture of what is ahead on this side of the ball.

Prediction

UCF looks like they win a close fought slow paced ground game but Rutgers gains an advantage if the game turns into a shoot out.

While both defenses will exploit a mistake by the offenses, neither offense is overly prone to error.

I like Rutgers 24-21.

Poll

Who will win the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl?

3rd Annual Rock M Nation Bowl Pick 'Em Contest

The Beef — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:00:18 -0000

UPDATE: BUMPED BACK TO THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

That's right loyal readers...the Bowl Pick 'Em Contest is back for its third season.

It is simple to participate. Simply reply to this thread with your picks. You will need to pick both against the spread, as well as the over/under, so you will have two picks per game. The spreads are LOCKED, so a movement in the line will not be taken into account. The spreads are courtesy of bookmaker.com because...well...that's the one I could find (and unless otherwise noted) They also represent where the lines were when they opened, which was a week ago (had to wait for Army/Navy to be played to determine Eagle Bowl and Texas Bowl line)

Our winner from last year is FSUncensored, who went 39-27 to win by three games over The Cool Alonzo and myself. All time, MU 1839 (our first winner) holds the best two-year record at 18 games over .500 (74-56). Of the "couples" category, The Beef and Tailgate Queen came out 3 game ahead of Bill C and Bill C's wife last year, tying their annual battle at 1-1. Overall, the contest generated a won-loss record of 1066-1244 for a not so good percentage of .461. Over the two years, we currently sit at 1711-1879 for a winning percentage of .477. Yes...I've kept track.

Picks are due by noon on Saturday, December 19th (since the first games are later that evening). Picks are lined up after the jump.

As for prizes...1st prize will get you the Rock M Nation T-shirt of your choice, unless RPT (who somehow is the keeper of the purse strings around here) decides we want to pony up some additional swag.

Anyway, we had a good time with this last year with 35 participants (up from 20 the first year) and somehow I am thinking we are going to have a FEW more than that :-) Come one, come all (and that certainly includes non-Rock M regulars...anyone from SB Nation is welcome to participate)...make me work hard at this. If you were here last season and have changed names, just let me know and I will do my best to give you your two or three-season score when all is said and done as well.

New Mexico

Fresno State -10 1/2 vs. Wyoming

Over/Under - 55 1/2

St. Petersburg

Rutgers -2 vs. UCF

Over/Under - 44 1/2

New Orleans

Sothern Miss -3 1/2 vs. Mid Tenn St.

Over/Under - 59

Las Vegas

Oregon State - 1 1/2 vs. BYU

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Poinsetta

Cal -3 vs. Utah

Over/Under - 53 1/2

Hawaii

Nevada -14 vs. SMU

Over/Under - 73 1/2

Little Caesers

Ohio -2 vs. Marshall

Over/Under - 50

Meineke

Pitt -3 vs. UNC

Over/Under - 44 1/2

Emerald

USC -9 vs. BC

Over/Under - 45 1/2

Music City

Clemson -7 vs. Kentucky

Over/Under - 52 1/2

Independence

Georgia -7 vs. Texas A&M

Over/Under - 64

Eagle Bank (LSVC odds)

UCLA -4 vs. Temple

Over/Under - 46 1/2

Champs Sports

Miami (FL) -3 vs. Wisconsin

Over/Under - 56

Humanitarian

Bowling Green PK vs. Idaho

Over/Under - 68 1/2

Holiday

Arizona -1 vs. Nebraska

Over/Under - 41

Armed Forces

Houston -5 vs. Air Force

Over/Under - 61

Sun

Oklahoma -9 1/2 vs. Stanford

Over/Under - 56 1/2

Texas (LVSC odds)

Mizzou -6 vs. Navy

Over/Under - 54

Insight

Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa State

Over/Under - 48

Chick-Fil-A

Va Tech -4 1/2 vs. Tenn

Over/Under - 50 1/2

Outback

Auburn -8 vs. Northwestern

Over/Under - 54 1/2

Gator

West Virginia -2 1/2 vs. Florida St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Capital One

Penn State -3 vs. LSU

Over/Under - 44

Rose

Oregon -3 1/2 vs. Ohio State

Over/Under - 51 1/2

Sugar

Florida -10 vs. Cincy

Over/Under - 55 1/2

International

South Fla. -6 1/2 vs. No. Illinois

Over/Under - 50

PapaJohns

South Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UCONN

Over/Under - 53

Cotton

Ole Miss -3 vs. Okie State

Over/Under -  50 1/2

Liberty

Arkansas -7 1/2 vs. East Carolina

Over/Under - 63 1/2

Alamo

Texas Tech -7 vs. Michigan St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Fiesta

TCU -7 vs. Boise St

Over/Under - 54

Orange

Ga Tech -4 vs. Iowa

Over/Under - 51

GMAC

Central Mich -4 vs. Troy

Over/Under - 64

BCS Champ

Alabama -5 1/2 vs. Texas

Over/Under - 45

Rutgers Headed to St. Petersburg

ibleedscarlet — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:26:46 -0000

Rutgers is headed to it's 5th straight bowl....

Rutgers is headed to it's 5th consecutive bowl game, but for the Knights, that's about all the good news there is. Despite the rumors that the Meineke Car Care Bowl was extremely interested in Rutgers, the Charlotte-based bowl passed on Rutgers in favor and Pitt, and the Scarlet Knights have been relegated to the St. Petersburg Bowl at Tropicana Field. The Scarlet Knights will look to win their 4th consecutive bowl game by defeating the University of Central Florida, a member of Conference USA.

Rutgers fans aren't the only people who are disappointed in the bowl bid. In a rare occurence, Schiano could not hide his disappointment. The bowl game, which will be played on Saturday, December 19th will provide relatively no additional practice time for the team (the biggest benefit of making a bowl game), compared with games like the International Bowl and PapaJohns.com bowl which will be played on January 2nd. The game will also be played right around the time of final exams for Rutgers, which makes for an overall unique and difficult situation:

"It is, quite frankly, very disappointing," Schiano told reporters on Sunday evening. "I cherish that time with the underclassmen to really bring them along. This date doesn't work very well for that."

Obviously it is disappointing for Rutgers, but they have no one to blame but themselves. We can complain all we want about how the Big East bowl tie-ins suck, and how Rutgers gets screwed every year, but the fact of the matter remains: if this team had beat West Virginia they would be playing in Charlotte. Rutgers isn't owed anything after an 8-4 season in which their best wins were against 7-5 USF and UConn. Rutgers, especially the seniors should enjoy their trip to Florida and reflect on their 4/5 years of success. The freshmen and younger players on the other hand should treat this game as business. A chance to get themselves off to a good start for next season, and to show everyone that this Rutgers team will be a team to contend with for 2010.

2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 13

Bama Hawkeye — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:29:09 -0000

Everything is clear. Some things are clear as crystal. Others are as clear as mud. But make no mistake, the situation is clear.

TCU will go to the BCS. The BCS Championship? Only with a couple of upset losses.

On the crystal side, the SEC Champ will play Texas, Cincinnati, or TCU in the BCS Championship Game. I think that's the order, too. If Texas beats Nebraska, they'll go. If not, Cincy is next in line. After playing the Pitt, they'll move ahead of TCU in the standings. Should the Bearcats fall to the Panthers, I think TCU gets their chance. I do not see a repeat of the SEC Championship game. Not with one viable undefeated team in the clubhouse and two more approaching 18. All in all, the 10 BCS teams are pretty safe bets. I've mentioned some alternatives, but I think that there are only 15 teams in play for the 10 spots.On the mud side, look at the SEC after the top 4 teams are placed. That's right, six 7-5 teams.

This Week's Articles

JerDogg finally admits that Minnesota just ain't that good.

Graham ranks the Big Ten quarterbacks for their 2009 performance.

Greg discusses the future of Tate Forcier and moving Denard Robinson to WR.

Good luck making any sense of it. I took my best shot, but you can feel free to speculate in a different direction. If you're counting, there are four open bowl spots for at large teams. 9 win MTSU and 7 win Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will take three of the spots. That leaves room for one 6-6 team to go to Mobile, Alabama to play the top choice from the MAC. My guess is that it's UCLA.

Full projections of all of the Big Ten, BCS, and every other bowl game after the jump.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			The SEC Champion will finish Number 1 in the BCS. Texas will finish #2 if they beat the Huskers. If they lose, Cincinnati will finish #2 with a win over PItt. If Texas and Cincy lose, TCU will slide into the number two spot.
			Beware of Clemson. Aren't they most dangerous after losing a game they have no business dropping? If Clemson wins the ACC, the Orange Bowl will likely take Cincinnati over a regular season rematch.
			Oklahoma State's loss means that the second Big Ten BCS team will be in Arizona, not Florida. If the Huskers upset Texas, Nebraska will be here, Texas will be selected by the Orange, and the Fiesta will still get a Big Ten team (and Boise will be left out). And yes, it very well could be Penn State over Iowa. If it was the Orange making the decision, it probably would be. But I'm still thinking that the Fiesta goes black and gold (and $green$).
			The only way that this isn't the SEC Runner-Up versus the Big East Champ is if Clemson or Nebraska pulls the upset.
			Ohio State has punched their ticket. The winner of Oregon/Oregon State will do the same. It says here that the Ducks win and head to Pasadena.
			LSU slips back into Orlando after Ole MIss lays an Egg against Mississippi State. From the Big Ten, this will be the loser of the behind the scenes battle between Iowa and Penn State.
			Is there any chance that this could be Northwestern? Maybe if Wisconsin loses at Hawaii, but I still have a hard time seeing the Wildcats winning that tiebreaker. Picking Tennessee here establishes them as the most desirable of the SEC's 7-5 mob.
			I think Clemson gets this bid after Virginia Tech and Miami.
			Yes, I think that 7-5 Oklahoma is selected over 8-win Missouri and Texas Tech. If good-MSU and good-OU show up, this could be a great game. If one of the schools brings their bad squad, it could get ugly.
			I don't see this matchup going well for the Gophers. Then again, if it was OU or Texas Tech, I don't know that it would go much better.
			Another Big Ten-less Motor City Bowl.
			When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

			Kudos to Wyoming for getting bowl eligible.
			The bowl will want a Florida connection if it can get it.
			Troy has clinched their trip back to New Orleans. ECU makes for a great matchup.
			BYU makes their 122nd consecutive trip to Las Vegas. Oregon State will be a great match for them there.
			I expect the Mountain West to arrange their alignment to give their big three the best games possible.
			Both teams say that they'll play "anytime, anywhere." Time to prove it.
			This will be Pitt or West Virginia from the Big East. For the second year in a row, Tar Heel fans should fill the seats.
			Bowden's last stand in that hotbed of college football --- San Francisco?
			Boston College is always a tough out in a bowl game. This should be no exception.
			Independence Bowl selects its Big 12 team ahead of the Texas Bowl this year. I think they take the team that gave Texas a battle over the team that beat Nebraska. My guess is that it's a choice between Kentucky and South Carolina on the SEC side.
			If Army defeats Navy in two weeks, they'll replace Marshall.
			Idaho is happy enough to go bowling. I'm sure that staying close to home is all right with them.
			Navy has clinched this bid. On the Big 12 side, it will be whoever is left between Iowa State and Texas A&M.
			Could the Cotton take Nebraska over Oklahoma State? Yes. Especially if the Huskers show well in a loss to Texas.
			The Ponies are another team that won't mind the quick commute for the bowl game.
			Should be a fun game.
			Georgia brings the crowd, while Miami brings the sizzle.
			It's an old fashioned Big East battle. Notre Dame's 6th loss means that the Gator Bowl can't pick the Irish. My guess is that West Virginia will head to Jacksonville if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh (and the Mountaineers beat Rutgers). If the Panthers win, Cincy heads here.
			Still weird to see Temple in a bowl.
			I've got South Carolina as the last choice out of the SEC. It has as much to do with geography as anything else.
			Yes, this could be Nebraska over Okie State. I suppose that one of those seven win SEC teams could be chosen here too. When push comes to shove, I think that the teams with the best records get chosen.
			Think that Arkansas will bring some fans to Memphis? I have Houston beating ECU. The C-USA champ automatically goes here.
			GMAC gets first choice from the MAC. Not champion, first choice. I project that's CMU, regardless of what happens elsewhere. It looks like it will come down to UCLA or Notre Dame to fill an empty ACC slot With the firing/hiring going on in South Bend, I expect the Irish to decline a bid.

Non-Automatic Qualifying Conference Races

utesfan100 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:52:38 -0000

So on Sunday I broke down the automatic qualifying conference races as part of my BCS analysis. For completeness I will now present the conference races for all remaining conferences.

None are anywhere near as tricky to discern as the PAC 10 was this week.

C-USA:

East:

The ECU and the UAB both control their own fate. S. Miss and UCF are still potential candidates for the championship game.

ECU wins if:

They beat S. Miss and UAB
They beat S. Miss and UCF beats UAB
They beat UAB and Tulsa beats S. Miss

UAB wins if:

They beat ECU and
- UAB beats UCF
- S. Miss beats ECU and Tulsa beats S. Miss and Tulane beats UCF

S. Miss wins if:

They beat ECU and Tulsa and UAB beats ECU or UCF

UCF wins if:

All of the following occur:

They beat UAB and Tulane
ECU loses to S. Miss and UAB
Tulsa beats S. Miss

West:

SMU wins if:

They beat Marshall and Tulane
Houston loses to Memphis and Rice
SMU splits with Marshall and Tulane and Houston splits with Memphis and Rice

Houston wins if:

They beat Memphis and Rice and SMU loses to Marshall or Tulane
They beat Memphis or Rice and SMU loses to Marshall and Tulane

MAC:

North:

C. Michigan and N. Illinois both control their own fate.

C. Michigan wins if:

Beat N. Illinois
Beat Ball State and Ohio beats N. Illinois

N. Illinois wins if:

Beat C. Michigan and
- Beat Ohio
- Ball State beats C. Michigan

South:

Temple and Ohio control their own fate.

Temple wins if:

They beat Ohio
Beat Kent State and N. Illinois beats Ohio

Ohio wins if:

Beat Temple and
- Beat N. Illinois
- Kent State beats Temple and loses to Buffalo

Kent State wins if:

Beat Temple and Buffalo and Ohio beats Temple but loses to N. Illinois

MWC:

TCU wins outright if:

beat Wyoming and New Mexico
beat Wyoming or New Mexico or the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively.

TCU wins a share if:

beat Wyoming or New Mexico
the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively

BYU wins outright if:

Beat Air Force and Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

BYU wins a share if:

Beat Air Force or Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins outright if:

Beat SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins a share if:

Beats SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming or New Mexico

Air Force wins a share if:

Beats BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico and Utah loses to BYU or SDSU

Sun Belt

Troy wins if:

Beat Florida Atlantic or LA Lafayette
The LA Monroe Middle Tennessee St. winner loses to LA Lafayette or Arkansas St. respectively.

LA Monroe wins if:

Beat Arkansa St. and LA Monroe and Troy loses to Florida Atlantic and LA Lafayette

Middle Tennessee St. wins if:

Beat LA Lafayette and Middle Tennessee St. and Troy loses to Florda Atlantic and LA Lafayette

WAC

Boise St. has won the WAC outright.

Blogpoll Ballot: Week 11 Draft

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:16:39 -0000

Week 11 is here, and it's time to publish my blogpoll ballot for this week.

Alabama surges to the top, Texas falls to #2, and Florida winds up at #3. Well, you have to put all of them somewhere, and I guess they will just be taking turns on my ballot for a while.

There were relatively few big games last week, so what we had is a series of humdrum games, with none of the top teams really having the opportunity to prove their superiority. I guess that will happen for sure when Alabama and Florida face off in the SEC championship. Texas' only remaining games are against fading Kansas, mediocre Texas A&M and Nebraska in the Big 12 championship, so they will likely be in the BCS championship game versus the winner of the SEC championship game.

My ballot follows the jump.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	2
2	Texas	1
3	Florida	1
4	Cincinnati
5	TCU
6	Boise State
7	Georgia Tech	1
8	Pittsburgh	1
9	Oregon	2
10	Ohio State	2
11	Stanford	8
12	Iowa	2
13	Oklahoma State	3
14	LSU	1
15	Virginia Tech	3
16	Houston	7
17	Penn State	3
18	Clemson	4
19	Miami (Florida)	5
20	Southern Cal	7
21	North Carolina	2
22	Wisconsin	3
23	Oregon State
24	Nebraska
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Utah (#17), Arizona (#21), Auburn (#24).

Comments

Southern Cal is fading faster than a pair of bleached bluejeans on a sunny day.
Navy makes an appearance, which they honestly deserve. Go Navy, Beat Army!
North Carolina continues to hang in the ACC, and Miami is looking like a shell of the top 10 team earlier this year. But Georgia Tech is the class of the conference.
Clemson continues its turn-around from its early season swoon.
Ohio State is making a move, and an impressive one. Barring a loss to Michigan, the Big 10 will have to chose between Iowa or Ohio State for their champ. Not sure how that is done these days.
Cincinnati continues to impress. Where will they be when one of the two SEC teams finally lose, as must happen?
If Georgia Tech beats Georgia, they will likely take over the #6 spot from Boise State on my ballot.
How about the Stanford Cardinal? Talk about coming out of nowhere.
Bad loss to UCF by Houston dropped them way down, but barring a catastrophe, they should win out.

Your comments are welcome, and appreciated.

2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 11

Bama Hawkeye — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:06:46 -0000

The Pac-10 is the best conference in college football.

There. I said it. It seems weird, but no other conference goes 6 deep with quality teams. Oregon, Stanford, USC, Arizona, California, and Oregon State give the Pac-10 depth that no one else can match. I will readily admit, that Oregon, the likely champ, does not compare to Floribama or Texas. It may not be as good as Ohio State, Cincinnati, or Georgia Tech for that matter. But when the other Pac-10 teams match up with the other conferences in bowl games, I expect to see an outstanding league record.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern seem pretty well locked into their slots. It would take a huge chain of events to move them. I expect to see more movement of their opponents than of them as we go forward. There will be an Iowa/Penn State decision to be made, and don't expect the answer until December 6th. Unless Michigan shocks Ohio State next weekend, Michigan State and Minnesota can make their hotel reservations, too. Full projections for the Big Ten, BCS, and all other bowls after the jump.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			Did you see anything yesterday that changed this matchup? I didn't.
			With no traditional power or huge traveling fan base available, maybe the Orange Bowl takes TCU as the top ranked unbeaten team? The TCU defense against the Tech offense would be fun to watch.
			I am presuming that after the polls come out tomorrow, Iowa will be no lower than 17 in the BCS standings. If that's the case, a 10-2 Iowa will likely be in the Top 14 by the final rankings. I'm projecting that the Fiesta picks Iowa over 10-2 Penn State. If you want to argue otherwise, be my guest. It'll be a tough call. As for the other spot, does the Fiesta take a 10-2 Oklahoma State team (assuming that they win in Norman)? Maybe. But I'm guessing that they look to 13-0 Boise instead.
			Still think that this will be the SEC Championship loser versus the Big East champion. Pittsburgh is sure giving me pause...
			Congratulations, Ohio State. Now win.
			Again, if you want to flip Iowa and Penn State, be my guest. LSU is a lock for Orlando.
			I don't see any way in which Wisconsin moves from this spot. I think a 9-3 Iowa or Penn State squad gets selected ahead of the Badgers. I'm going with 7 win Tennessee over 7 win Georgia, 7 win Auburn, and 7 win Arkansas.
			Congratulations to Northwestern on reaching 7 wins. The fact that none of the teams below you accomplished that means that you get a great bowl matchup. Getting the 8th against Wisconsin won't move you up any further.
			6-6 Michigan State goes to San Antonio. If Sparty can upset Penn State, they'll go to Orlando for the Champs Bowl instead. Expect to see the Oklahoma/Texas Tech winner here.
			Barring an upset of Iowa, which would bump the Gophers over a 6-6 Michigan State, or a Wolverine win that sends the Gophers to Detroit, Minnesota is headed back to the desert for the third time in four years.
			Unless Michigan wins, this game goes unfilled by the Big Ten. Again.
			At this point, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue have guaranteed themselves a winter without a bowl game. Michigan can reach 6 wins if they can pull the upset over the Rose Bowl bound Buckeyes on Saturday. If they do, they'll get the best bowl slot available for a 6-6 team (likely the Alamo Bowl). I'm not counting on it. I think that all four of these teams will be On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

And now we add the other 23 bowl games...



			SMU controls its own destiny to win C-USA West. I think that they do, but they lose to ECU in the championship game. Troy has made this their annual winter home.
			BYU will be asked to go to Las Vegas every time they can. Oregon State is a good matchup.


			10-2 Pitt may be the biggest loser in the bowl pairings. With Notre Dame not earning a BCS bid, they'll go to the Gator Bowl and push all of the Big East teams down a rung. Pitt deserves better than this.
			Florida State will need to beat Maryland to keep their bowl streak going (you don't think they'll win in Gainesville do you?). Stanford stays close to home for a nice matchup.
			This would be a great matchup. Why doesn't this game happen during the regular season from time to time?
			Iowa State could get out to the Insight Bowl if they upset Mizzou next weekend.
			The ACC can't fill this spot. Ohio's 7 wins will get them a bid somewhere. I'm saying that somewhere is DC.
			The current projections have room for one 6-6 team. It's UCLA, and they will head north to the blue turf.
			Navy has clinched this bid. Will pent-up Aggie fans travel to Houston? I suspect they will.
			Stanford may end up with a better record, but this would be a dream matchup in San Diego.
			Houston is going to need help to win the Western Division of C-USA. I don't think that they get it. The good news is that they get a great matchup in Ft. Worth.
			Texas Tech fits well here. Look for the Cal/Stanford winner to be their opponent.
			Chick-Fil-A will have its choice of the Hokies, Clemson, and Miami. Clemson/Auburn wouldn't be a surprise either.
			Even Notre Dame haters would love a good Catholics vs. Convicts game.
			This would be a really good game. The MAC champion is not tied to any one game, and I suspect the league will try to get them a good matchup.
			6-6 Kentucky gets the SEC's last spot. The Big East places teams, and they'll want one of their better teams to face an SEC member.
			The Cowboys have cemented their place as second best in the Big 12. Auburn's loss to Georgia moves Ole Miss to a return trip to Dallas.
			Houston's loss sets up an ECU/SMU C-USA title game. I've got ECU winning and going back to Memphis. The Liberty Bowl is happy to have Arkansas.
			UL-M replaces the ACC, which can't fill its last two spots. A seven win ULM team will get chosen above a more (TV friendly" 6 win team.

College Football Week 11 Morning Open Thread

Avinash — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

Injury reports for Cal-Arizona: Cal--Jahvid Best and Anthony Miller (out), Derrick Hill (doubtful), Matt Summers-Gavin (probable); Arizona--Greg Nwoko, Conan Amituanal and Nic Grigsby (questionable)

7 AM PST/10 AM EST
College Gameday from Dallas at TCU!

9 AM PST/noon EST
Tennessee at Ole Miss, CBS--Might not be interesting for this season, but the winner of this game could be a team to watch out for going into next season to be an SEC upstart.

Michigan State at Purdue, ESPN--Ugh. No.

Georgia Tech at Duke, ESPN2--You know, I hate Duke basketball almost as much (if you had to put a gun to my head and ask, "Bin Laden or Coach K", I'd probably have to think about it for awhile). But Duke football behind David Cutcliffe, one win away from bowl eligibility? Oh, I can so get behind that. Go Devils!

Florida State at Wake Forest, ESPNU--you're running out of chances to see the ol'football coach.

Texas at Baylor, FSN/CSN Bay Area--if Robert Griffin had been present, this would've been a fun game. Baylor would take a 10-0 lead then blow it in the 4th quarter. As it is, another Longhorn blowout.

Houston at UCF, CBS College TV--I'm guessing if I had to rewatch one team's games this season, it's going to have to be Case Keenum and his Cougars.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt, SEC TV/CSN California--The SEC is on pace to have ten of twelve teams be bowl eligible. Gotta love how beating up on patsies is not only strategically encouraged, but economically encouraged too.

9:30 AM PST/12:30 PM EST
Missouri at Kansas State, Versus HD--A win by Kansas State and a loss by Nebraska punches their ticket to the Big 12 Championship game. Or they can just beat Nebraska next week in Lincoln. All hail Bill Snyder.

Poll

I'm _____________________ about today's games.

excited

7 votes

angry

3 votes

hopeful

26 votes

depressed

36 votes

drunk

11 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed