SB Nation - Wisconsin Badgers

Don't Bet On It!: College Football Bowl Edition (Part III)

T Kyle King — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:50:18 -0000

Obviously, intervening considerations have sidetracked me after I offered the first two installments of my postseason predictions, for which I humbly apologize and which I now will endeavor to rectify by providing the next four bowl forecasts.

Two points bear making before I proceed, however. First of all, I am omitting the Independence Bowl from the mix because I will be giving special attention to the matchup in Shreveport between now and December 28. Secondly, my record as a prognosticator is not an impressive one, so, whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!

Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles v. USC Trojans (Dec. 26): Southern California fell off a cliff in 2009, relatively speaking, earning the Men of Troy the highly unflattering distinction of "Team Schadenfreude." Boston College, meanwhile . . . um . . . wait a second . . . yeah, the Eagles quietly went a perfectly respectable yet nondescript 8-4 with five conference wins for a league mark above .500, which far outdistanced USC’s disastrous record of 8-4 with five conference wins for a league mark above .500. Hang on, that can’t be right, can it? Oh, yeah, it is. All right, then, I’m going with the Trojans.

Music City Bowl: Clemson Tigers v. Kentucky Wildcats (Dec. 27): While I hope this proves to be a preview of an SEC East divisional matchup in a couple or three years, I’m still a bit miffed that those Outback Bowl clowns slammed the door on the possibility of a renewal of the rivalry in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. These two clubs ought to be fairly evenly matched, since capturing an ACC division championship is approximately equivalent to finishing in the muddled middle of the SEC, but the Country Gentlemen have C.J. Spiller and the Wildcats have the 11th-ranked rushing defense in the Southeastern Conference. Yeah, I’m thinking Clemson wins a close one.

EagleBank Bowl: Temple Owls v. UCLA Bruins (Dec. 29): Absolutely nothing about this bowl makes sense to me. I don’t get the idea of playing a college football bowl game in Washington, D.C., home of the efforts to foul up the sport permanently. I don’t know what EagleBank is, although I’d be willing to bet that EagleBank uses magicJack for its telephone/internet/facsimile/séance/other communication services. I can’t wrap my brain around the concept of Temple playing in a bowl game. The only part of this whole thing that computes is the idea of the Bruins being there, and that only happened because the Army Black Knights couldn’t hold a halftime lead against the Navy Midshipmen. Since everything else about this bowl seems like something out of a Salvador Dali painting, a David Lynch film, or that "Star Trek" episode where Mr. Spock had a goatee, I’m going with the only sensible aspect of the entire affair and picking UCLA to emerge triumphant.

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami Hurricanes v. Wisconsin Badgers (Dec. 29): Are there two teams in the country tougher to figure than these two? We’re twelve games into the year for each of these squads and I have no idea how good either of them really is. While the Big Ten is a better conference than the ACC, that isn’t saying much, and whatever advantage Wiscy enjoys by virtue of its superior league affiliation is offset by the stellar ratings "The U" received. (Would a documentary about Wisconsin football called "The W" garner as many viewers? I think not, even on the Big Ten Network.) I’m going with the ’Canes to make the bold declaration, "Badgers? We don’t need no stinking badgers!"

I’ll pick up next time with the games being played on the eve of New Year’s Eve. In the interim, though, you should heed my regular advice and refrain from placing trust in my forecasts, so I will remind you once again: Don’t Bet On It!

Go ‘Dawgs!

Ranking the Big Ten Bowls by Difficulty

Law Buckeye — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:48:55 -0000

It appears the mainstream consensus is that the Big Ten will suffer another disastrous bowl season. Just yesterday, ESPN's Pat Forde predicted we would match last year's 1-6 performance. A single win is a long way away from the four wins necessary to escape with a winning record. That got me thinking, just how high of a mountain do we have to climb? Let's look at how the seven bowls stack up against each other in degree of difficulty (easiest to hardest), and the likelihood of a Big Ten win in each one.

Don't forget to go back and submit your Bowl Prediction sheet for another chance to win a prize. For winning the regular season OPC, Seattle Hawkeye won...a hat. You may win...something cooler. Hardest bowls to pick so far are Stanford-Oklahoma and PSU-LSU.

7. Insight Bowl (Minnesota v. Iowa State) December 31st, Tempe, AZ

It's hard to get excited about two 6-6 squads going mano a mano on the NFL Network. It's also hard for Minnesota fans to shake the stigma that Purdue would have been a better Big Ten representative on the national stage. Although the Golden Gopher's offense is sometimes been less visible than the Emperor's New Clothes, Iowa State is the epitome of mediocre. It ranked 8th in the Big 12 in total offense, and 11th in total defense during the regular season. Minnesota ranked last in the Big 10 in total offense, but finished sixth in defense. Sadly, I think this is the Big Ten's "easiest" matchup.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 70%

6. Champs Sports Bowl (Wisconsin v. Miami) December 29th, Orlando, FL

Four games into the season it looked the "The U" had restored its swagger and was predestined to win the ACC. The Canes held Georgia Tech to 95 rushing yards, before giving up 287 to Virginia Tech. Wisconsin's offense is beautifully balanced (206 ypg rushing, 209 ypg passing), which makes me think they can do to Miami what they couldn't do to Florida State last year: sustain consistent drives. The potential for John Clay to run downhill makes this game the second most manageable for the Big Ten.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 55%

5. Capital One Bowl (Penn State v. LSU) January 1st, Orlando, FL

Although neither team has a quality win, I have to give a slight edge to Penn State here because of its defense. On the other hand, LSU has swapped helmet paint with a tougher slate of opponents, and might be battle tested. It's clear that Les Miles has had issues focusing this team, and the pressure on him to win might compromise his preparations.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 52%

4. Outback Bowl (Northwestern v. Auburn) January 1st, Tampa, FL

Northwestern's defense has had plenty of opportunities to prepare for the spread. They also have a more than functional offense, and a coach that's as meticulous as anyone in his preparations. Auburn's defense has been MIA since August. Still, the Tigers led No. 1 Alabama for three and a half quarters, and if their performance in the Outback Bowl comes anywhere close to matching that effort, Northwestern gets bruised.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 45%

3. Fed Ex Orange Bowl (Iowa v. Georgia Tech) January 5th, Miami, FL

Some people might be surprised to see me place a BCS bowl in the middle of the rankings, but I think Iowa matches up nicely against the Yellow Jackets. If the Hawk's come up with a defense that contends with Tech's vaunted triple option (and that's a big "if"), the physicality of Iowa's offensive line can steal the show. I've got faith in you, Norm Parker.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 44%

2. Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi (Ohio State v. Oregon) January 1st, Pasadena, CA

All eyes will be on Pasadena when the unstoppable Oregon Ducks meet the immovable Ohio State Buckeyes. But beneath the strength-versus-strength storyline there's the reality that Ohio State might not be able to finish drives against a surprisingly fast Oregon defense. So, the Buckeyes move the ball 60 yards and stall. What about Oregon? They'll be forced to to punt or settle for field goals through three and a half quarters. The difference here, is Oregon's quick-strike capability A few missed tackles in space and the Ducks can put the game out of reach. Moreover they score on any play. Ohio State can't.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 40%

1. Valero Alamo Bowl (Michigan State v. Texas Tech) January 2nd, San Antonio, TX

Michigan State's porous secondary spelled disaster against the Red Air-Raiders, and that was before Mark Dantonio suspended eight players. Without receivers Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, and defensive back Chris L. Rucker, the deck is stacked against the Spartans.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 25%

Big Ten Expansion: 11+1 Can't Equal 12

Bama Hawkeye — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:45:34 -0000

Here's the thing about this Big Ten expansion: it's going to be a big deal. Otherwise, it's not going to happen. If adding a twelfth team only add to the Big Ten coffers by 9.09% (or 1/11th of the current total), the deal is a wash. The Big Ten isn't going to add a school and expand for a wash. They will only expand if the expansion creates an increase in funding above and beyond what they would have received otherwise. If 11+1=12, expansion won't happen. 11+1 must equal more than 12.

Now before you and tell me that the Big Ten will make big money from a title game, recognize that your point is ceded. It will be a moneymaker for the league. However, if the expansion does not increase regular season fees by at least 9.09%, each school will receive less money from the league during the regular season. I will posit that if any part of this deal is a financial loss, it is not happening.

TRE is your one stop shop for all things Big Ten Expansion related...

Graham discusses pros and cons of adding a 12th team...and who it might be.

Lake Erie M argues for mega-expansion and a 14 team league

BHGP lists the 4 most important issues surrounding expansion.

Chadnudj details the benefits of the North/South split

That's why, you need to think big, or get out of the discussion. Big Ten expansion is not about "finding a rival for Penn State." Big Ten expansion is not about finding any local twelfth school so that the league can have a championship game. Big Ten expansion is about increasing the percentage of college sports dollars that go directly into the coffers of each institution. I am not saying this in a derogatory or cynical way. It's exactly what expansion should be about. If you're going to upset this apple cart by adding a new member, there better be some huge HUGE benefits. That was what the league got when Penn State joined. That's what the league should get now.

So stop thinking small. Join me after the jump and start thinking Big. After all, it's in our league's name for a good reason.

Let's add that 12th Team:

Remember, think BIG. Here are the teams that I think by themselves can satisfy this requirement:

Notre Dame

Yes, it's the league's white whale (and I appreciate it that the Irish again hired a coach who can personally live up to that moniker.). At the same time, it is still the most recognized name and brand in college athletics. It would be a coup for the league. It would be a perfect fit (and they'd find a way to get the Irish into the AAU; don't sweat that). If Notre Dame would say yes (and they won't), this search would be done.

Texas

Do you remember that Texas reached out to join the Big Ten in 1993/94? Shortly before the Horns and Aggies (along with the state's two successful piggybackers) joined the Big 8, Texas talked with the Big Ten about becoming the league's 12th member. The Big Ten was under a self-imposed expansion moratorium, though.

Today, I don't see Texas joining. They are the New York Yankees of the Big 12. They have every conceivable advantage and limited revenue sharing. Why would they leave that situation for long road trips (the shortest Big Ten trip would be longer than the longest Big 12 trip) and equitable payouts? Do you think the Yankees would leave baseball's system for football's - where they would share (most of) their dollars evenly with Green Bay? Texas is in a perfect situation.

Nebraska

Yes, the Big Ten wants to dominate the Omaha media market. No, this would be about adding a football giant. Tom Osborne, for one, would listen long and hard. He's preached against the Southern-dominance of the Big 12 since its inception. I don't know if the Huskers take the offer, but it's a much closer call than you might think at first blush. And don't give me the "Big 8/12 founding member tradition garbage." It doesn't pay the bills.

Maryland

This is all about DC. The ACC has the market surrounded. The Big East has roots in the market (during hoops). The Big Ten can move on the area by adding the Terps. It's a contiguous state, which could use the move to recruit in more fertile areas (Ohio and Pennsylvania). Yes, Maryland is thought of as a basketball school first. I don't think that stops the inquiry. I don't know that Maryland jumps, but I bet they look long and hard at it.

Missouri

Missouri has already said that they would entertain the offers. Good for you, Mizzou. Missouri feel like it has received a raw deal from the Big 12 in football each of the last three years. The Big Ten would control, instead of split, the St. Louis market, while making an entry into Kansas City. Of the adding one combinations, this has the greatest likelihood of actually happening.

Here's who is not on the list:

Pitt

Like I said at the outset, this isn't about finding a partner for Penn State. In 17 seasons, the Lions have developed a nice rivalry with Ohio State and a hatred for Iowa. They don't need to bring their little brother school into the family just to have someone to kick around. Also, Pitt adds nothing but a 12th team. If you believe me when I write that this expansion has to be about more than that, then you know why Pitt won't happen.

Rutgers

I'm late coming around on this, but Rutgers adds nothing but a 12th team. Rutgers doesn't "give the Big Ten the New York market" any more than adding Middle Tennessee State would give the league the Nashville market.

West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse

They don't add anything but a 12th team.

Iowa State

Now you're just being silly.

Let's Think Bigger

An interesting article in the Tribune yesterday tipped the Big Ten's hand. They're not limiting their thoughts to 12 teams. They are also looking at 14 teams league. What? Seriously? Yes. Who would this be?

How about Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska. Add those three to the league and you control the media markets of the upper Midwest and great plains states. That doesn't add much. But, you add one of the Top 10 football programs, one of the Top 10 basketball programs, and a legitimate contender in both. That I find interesting. How do these divisions strike you:

Big Ten North	Big Ten South	or....	Big Ten East	Big Ten West
Michigan	Ohio State		Penn State	Nebraska
Michigan State	Indiana		Ohio State	Kansas
Wisconsin	Purdue		Michigan	Missouri
Minnesota	Kansas		Michigan State	Iowa
Iowa	Missouri		Indiana	Wisconsin
Northwestern	Illinois		Purdue	Minnesota
Nebraska	Penn State		Northwestern	Illinois

I like them, too. I'm partial to the North/South alignment (playing each team in their division, their permanent rival across from them on the list, and one rotating school each year), but I wouldn't argue with the East/West breakdown either. It just doesn't lend itself as well to the split.

Would the three Big Twelve schools come together? Yes, Kansas leaves K-State behind, but i don't think that they'd worry too much about that. Coming together might make the move more palatable for the joiners. I don't know enough about the numbers to know if it would make the league more profitable for the members, but my suspicion is that it would.

If you believe that the league will go for a more balanced geographic approach, maybe it's Missouri, Pittsburgh and Maryland. Look what that could do:

Big Ten North	Big Ten South	or...	Big Ten East	Big Ten West
Michigan	Ohio State		Maryland	Missouri
Michigan State	Maryland		Penn State	Iowa
Pitt	Penn State		Pitt	Minnesota
Wisconsin	Purdue		Ohio State	Wisconsin
Minnesota	Indiana		Michigan	Illinois
Iowa	Missouri		Michigan State	Northwestern
Northwestern	Illinois		Indiana	Purdue

When you add three teams, you're adding a championship game, but you're also adding 12 extra regular season games. That's increasing regular season product by more than 25%, and likely adding a premium to the value. It's a good deal for all involved.

Let's Think Biggest

Reread the money quote from the Tribune. The league is also considering 16 team options. What? Sixteen? What would that look like? My friends, it would look like the start of a playoff system.

Big Ten East	Big Ten North	Big Ten West	Big Ten South
Penn State	Michigan	Iowa	Ohio State
Indiana	Northwestern	Minnesota	Illinois
Maryland	Michigan State	Wisconsin	Missouri
Pitt	Purdue	Nebraska	Kansas

How would you schedule this for football? Let's dream a bit. Each team plays the three teams in their division, and four teams from another division. The eighth game will be decided by standings and played on Thanksgiving weekend, with the first place teams facing off in the league championship semi-finals. You could rotate what divisions face each other for full slates and what divisions meet head to head on Thanksgiving weekend. Do you think that Big Ten semi-final weekend would get ratings? TV Money? Attention?

I know that this is a radical change from anything that college football has done. And, I realize that these divisions will move away from the traditional rival system (thus, likely making it a non-starter). But, this is the time to think in these terms. The stodgy Big Ten is allowing itself to dream right now. It should be encouraged to think as big as it can.

Remember: Think Big

Over the next 12-18 months, you'll read periodic articles focused on one small addition to the Big Ten roster. Remember that won't happen. If expansion occurs, it will be because the Big Ten was able to get Bigger.

h/t on the title to Frank the Tank.

Addendum:

We never said what we were going to name this Bigger Big Ten. Sure, we could stick with the easy moniker and keep the Big Ten. Or we could go to the Big 14 or Big 16. But we can do better than that. We need something that demonstrates our dominance in college football. Something that shows that we will not only compete with those Southern units, but that we will dominate them. Got it...

THE UNION

Gen. Sherman approves.

BLACK HEART GOLD PODCAST 17: SWINDLED

Hawkeye State — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 23:32:48 -0000

You'll need this for later. Trust us.

Episode 17, in the calm before the storm of bowl season, is a perfect opportunity to preview the Big Ten bowl slate with the only man who could compare LSU playcalling to a French absurdist play. That's right: It's Spencer Hall, the Artist Occasionally Known as Orson Swindle, joining your hosts to discuss Auburn's Island of Misfit Quarterbacks, how the Alamo Bowl resembles the opening scene from Monty Python's Meaning of Life, and things to do in Orlando when you're from Wisconsin.

Listen below or on iTunes.

BHGPodcast 17

Fortune Teller: 2009 Bowl Predictions (Part 1)

Brian @ BCI — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:16:14 -0000

For the third straight year, we preview the upcoming college football postseason. Here are our picks for bowls 1-17, which takes you from the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque to El Paso, Texas for the Sun Bowl.

Leave your thoughts on any of the first 17 matchups below.

New Mexico (December 19)

Matchup: Fresno State (8-4) vs. Wyoming (6-6)
The Line: Fresno State -11.5

The Lead: Wyoming makes only its second trip to a bowl this decade while Fresno State makes its 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 years. Fresno State returns to New Mexico for the second straight year (losing to Colorado State 40-35 last year).

Brian Pick: Fresno State -11.5
Jeff Pick: Wyoming +11.5

St. Petersburg presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s (December 19)

Matchup: UCF (8-4) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
The Line: Rutgers -2.5

The Lead: Rutgers just making a bowl game game is no longer exciting for their players and fans who had higher hopes coming into this season than to finish 3-4 in the Big East. UCF meanwhile will be playing less than three hours from their campus and should be thrilled to be there.

Jeff Pick: UCF +2.5
Brian Pick: Rutgers -2.5

R + L Carrier New Orleans (December 20)

Matchup: Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee (9-3)
The Line: Southern Miss -3.5

The Lead: Southern Miss returns to the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight year. Last year, Southern Miss blocked a field goal in overtime to defeat Troy 30-27 in one of the more entertaining 2008 bowl games. Middle Tennessee State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 6 straight and reaching the 9 win plateau for the first time since joining Division I-A in 1999. Southern Miss has a perfect 3-0 record in the New Orleans Bowl.

Brian Pick: Southern Miss -3.5
Jeff Pick: Southern Miss -3.5

MAACO Las Vegas (December 22)

Matchup: Oregon State (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2)
The Line: Oregon State -2.5

The Lead: BYU was on top of the world after beating Oklahoma to start the season. Oregon State was on top of the college football world in the final Thursday night of the season when playing Oregon for the Pac-10 title. Things didn't work out as either team had hoped from those points on though and they both fell to the pre-Christmas Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon State has plenty to prove though as they attempt to beat BYU, TCU and Boise State in the next 11 months and serve as the non-BCS school killer.

Jeff Pick: Oregon State -2.5
Brian Pick: Oregon State -2.5

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia (December 23)

Matchup: Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)
The Line: California -3

The Lead: With BC losing to Vanderbilt last season, Utah now owns the longest active winning streak in bowl games, having won their last 8 games including last year’s Sugar Bowl over Alabama. Cal is riding a seven game streak for bowl apperances, the longest in school history.

Brian Pick: Utah +3
Jeff Pick: Utah +3

Sheraton Hawaii (December 24)

Matchup: Nevada (8-4) vs. SMU (7-5)
The Line: Nevada -15

The Lead: This game features a very good WAC team against a very good C-USA team but does that mean that they are actually good teams? It's tough to say. Neither team has a very impressive win this season and both seemed to lose all their games when they had opportunities to prove themselves. Will anyone watch the Christmas Eve game in Hawaii? Other than Brian?

Jeff Pick: SMU +15
Brian Pick: Nevada -15

Little Caesars (December 26)

Matchup: Marshall (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-4)
The Line: Ohio -2.5

The Lead: This game renews a rivalry game between the two schools located only 80 miles apart. Ohio and Marshall used to compete in the Battle for the Bell which is set to be renewed in 2010. Ohio leads the all-time series 29-17-6, however Marshall has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between the two geographic neighbors.

Brian Pick: Ohio -2.5
Jeff Pick: Ohio -2.5

Meineke Car Care (December 26)

Matchup: Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
The Line: Pittsburgh -3

The Lead: What a disappointing finish to the season for Pittsburgh. Pitt lost to their backyard brawl rival West Virginia before losing to Cincinnati in a de-facto Big East Championship game. The Panthers led the entire game against Cincinnati but could not finish so now instead of the Orange Bowl they get a trip to Charlotte to play North Carolina in a "road" bowl game. Good luck getting your team fired up for this one, Dave!

Jeff Pick: North Carolina +3
Brian Pick: Pittsburgh -3

Emerald (December 26)

Matchup: Boston College (8-4) vs. USC (8-4)
The Line: USC -9

The Lead: The 8-4 Eagles travel to San Francisco for the second time this decade to take on the 8-4 USC Trojans. This is the first time in seven years that USC hasn’t played in a BCS bowl game (5 Rose Bowls, 2 Orange Bowls). Good news for the Eagles is the last time Pete Carroll found himself in a non-BCS bowl game, the Trojans lost 10-6 to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. You don't think we would pick against BC now, do you?

Brian Pick: Boston College +9
Jeff Pick: Boston College +9

Gaylor Hotels Music City (December 27)

Matchup: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)
The Line: Clemson -7.5

The Lead: If Boston College's 2008 performance in the Music City Bowl is any indication of how Clemson might play this year after the disappointing ACC Championship Game, it's is going to be tough to watch for Tiger fans. But after losing to South Carolina, the ACC really doesn't need Clemson, or any of its top programs, to lose to mediocre SEC teams. Clemson ticket sales for the bowl have been soft but hopefully Dabo can rally this team to victory.

Jeff Pick: Kentucky +7.5
Brian Pick: Clemson -7.5

AdvoCare V100 Independence (December 28)

Matchup: Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)
The Line: Georgia -7

The Lead: Georgia wraps up an otherwise disappointing, up-and-down season in Shreveport, Louisiana. For every quality win for UGA, there seemed to be an equally puzzling loss this year. Defeat Arkansas, get crushed at Tennessee. Defeat Auburn, lose to Kentucky at home, come back and defeat in-state rival Georgia Tech. Texas A&M has had a similar up-and-down season, but seemingly backed into the postseason having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Brian Pick: Georgia -7
Jeff Pick: Georgia -7

EagleBank (December 29)

Matchup: UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)
The Line: UCLA -4

The Lead: UCLA had to wait to see the result of the Army-Navy game before getting officially invited to this bowl game. In the bowl's second season, I don't imagine that their will be much hype this year compared to last year's geographically favorable matchup of Wake Forest vs. Navy. Look for Temple to surprise some people and possibly knock off a BCS school in this one.

Jeff Pick: Temple +4
Brian Pick: Temple +4

Champs Sports (December 29)

Matchup: Miami (Fla.) (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)
The Line: Miami -3

The Lead: This year’s Champs Sports Bowl is a matchup of 9-3 ranked teams. Both teams are coming off strong finishes, each winning 4 of their final 5 games. Wisconsin finished the season with a 51-10 drubbing of Hawaii on the road, while Miami took care of USF 31-10. Miami is 2-0 all-time in the Champs Sports Bowl. Wisconsin played in Orlando last season, losing to Florida State 42-13. This is the last year the Big 10 will be represented in this bowl as the Big East will send a team to face an ACC opponent starting next season.

Brian Pick: Miami -3
Jeff Pick: Miami -3

Roady’s Humanitarian (December 30)

Matchup: Bowling Green (8-5) vs. Idaho (7-5)
The Line: Idaho +1.5

The Lead: Another game that might set an attendance record this season but not the kind of record that you want to be setting if you are putting this bowl together. Boise fans might already be on their way to the Fiesta Bowl so even getting a few locals to come out for this game will be difficult. Bowling Green has a pretty good WR, and Idaho plays home games in a dome. That's all I have for this one.

Jeff Pick: Bowling Green -1.5
Brian Pick: Idaho +1.5

Pacific Life Holiday (December 30)

Matchup: Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (9-4)
The Line: Arizona -1.5

The Lead: Arizona - having defeated the Trojans 21-17 to move to 6-3 in conference - will represent the Pac-10 as its #2 team in the Holiday Bowl. Nebraska won the Big 12 North, finishing the season at 9-4, 6-2 in conference. The Cornhuskers are coming off a heartbreaking 13-12 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Brian Pick: Arizona -1.5
Jeff Pick: Nebraska +1.5

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (December 31)

Matchup: Houston (10-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
The Line: Houston -4.5

The Lead: The mighty Houston Cougars who knocked off Oklahoma State at home are only 4.5 point favorites against Air Force? Oh right, we later found out that Oklahoma State was not nearly as good as anyone thought the would be and failed to make a push for a BCS bowl by nearly losing to Colorado and then getting destroyed by Oklahoma to end the season. Air Force had another nice season but only managed a 1-5 record against bowl bound teams this season.

Jeff Pick: Air Force +4.5
Brian Pick: Houston -4.5

Brut Sun (December 31)

Matchup: Oklahoma (7-5) vs. Stanford (8-4)
The Line: Oklahoma -8

The Lead: This should be an intriguing matchup between the unstoppable force (Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart and the 15th ranked Stanford Cardinal offense) and the immovable object (Oklahoma's 7th ranked defense). Oklahoma has had an otherwise disappointing season, that is, up until they put a 27-0 hurtin' on in-state rival Oklahoma State in Bedlam. Stanford may or may not be playing without the services of starting freshman quarterback Andrew Luck.

Brian Pick: Stanford +8
Jeff Pick: Oklahoma -8

Ranking The 2009-2010 Bowls: Part 2

Mark Kieffer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:31:13 -0000

In Part 1 of the series, I listed the bowls that I would not be mad at missing. With this Part 2, I'm continuing the countdown. This set of games are those that I would like to see, but I'm not going to make any kind of sacrifices to watch these games.

During the holidays, especially when traveling to a bowl game myself, you're sometimes going to miss some. Click on the jump, to see the 12 bowls that I have in my middle tier of games!

#20: Outback Bowl (Northwestern vs. Auburn), 1/1/2010, 10am CST, ESPN

After a night of partying in Tempe on New Years, there's no way in hell I'm going to get myself up early to watch this. I'm not really one of those ISU fans obsessed with Chizik anyways. This game could have easily gone in my Part 1 post. Honestly, I think Auburn rolls in this one anyways, but you never know.

#19: Texas Bowl (Navy vs. Missouri), 12/31/2009, 2:30pm CST, ESPN

There's no way I'm seeing this game, (although I would've liked to) so it ranks this low. I'll be at Sundevil Stadium when this is getting underway, but I'll be scoreboard checking during the game. Not a bad matchup at all, and could be an entertaining game. Navy has that triple option, while Missouri has a good passing game behind Danario Alexander.

#18: Emerald Bowl (Boston College vs. USC), 12/26/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

This should be an evenly matched game for the most part. USC has had a down year by their standards, but I think this year was pretty good for Boston College. I'm not really a fan of either team, which is why it ranks relatively low on my list.

#17: Liberty Bowl (Arkansas vs. East Carolina), 1/2/2010, 4:30pm CST, ESPN

You have a pretty good offense in Arkansas against an East Carolina team that won the CUSA, and has been on a roll down the stretch.

#16: Independence Bowl (Texas A&M vs. Georgia), 12/28/2009, 4pm CST, ESPN

Georgia has the better defense, and better overall team, while A&M has the better offense. You can't ignore Georgia's win over Georgia Tech; that was impressive. I think this has the makings of a good game, and it might suprise some people.

#15: Champs Sports Bowl (Miami vs. Wisconsin), 12/29/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

I like watching Miami. Been a fan of them since I've been following College Football. Growing up in Minnesota, I've seen a lot of Wisconsin as well. A game between two programs I'm familiar with. Miami likes to pass it, and is a very athletic team. Wisconsin, plays your typical Big 10 style of game: running the ball and trying to play defense.

#14: Chick-Fil-A Bowl (VA Tech vs. Tennessee), 12/31/2009, 6:30pm CST, ESPN

Lane Kiffin is just a drama-machine. Seems like controversy follows him around, and that alone may be worth watching. It will also be interesting to see how VA Tech plays, when they've been eying a BCS Bowl game all year, and feel a little snubbed. Tennesee has played close to teams all year, with a pretty solid defense. This could end up being similar to the Nebraska vs. VA Tech game earlier in the year.

#13: Capital One Bowl (Penn State vs. LSU), 1/1/2010, Noon CST, ABC

If you like watching a good defensive game, this one is for you. Both teams have issues scoring at times, but have no issues stopping the opposing offense.

#12: Cotton Bowl (Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss), 1/2/2010, 1pm CST, Fox

This is the battle between two disappointing teams. Both were ranked high at the beginning of the year, and neither really did much of anything notable on the national scale. I'm still confused as to how Oklahoma State just laid an egg against Oklahoma, along with how Ole Miss was supposed to have this Heisman contender in Snead. I don't really think either fanbase is that excited about the game either. With how inconsistent these teams have been all year, I don't think anyone knows what to expect in this one, and maybe for that, it's worth tuning into for a little bit.

#11: Holiday Bowl (Arizona vs. Nebraska), 12/30/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

These teams are pretty even on paper. I can't see scores outside of the teens in this one. Heck, this game could be 10-9 or something like that. It's really too bad for Husker fans that their offense was so bad this year, as it's really brought this team down. I have also come around to being a big fan of Suh, and it's extremley fun to watch him dominate the line of scrimmage all game long. Even if he doesn't get the tackle or sack, Suh has an impact on the play.

#10: Poinsettia Bowl (Utah vs. Cal), 12/23/2009, 7pm CST, ESPN

Jahvid Best is back for the Golden Bears, and he's a lot of fun to watch. Really good to see that he's going to be able to continue playing, after that scary concussion he suffered not too long ago. Honestly, when I saw that play, I thought his playing days in the future could be in jeopardy. This game is likely going to come down to the wire, as they are dead even on paper.

In Part 3, I'm going to countdown the bowls that are must-see for me. By process of elimination, you can figure out which bowls they are, but you will have to see on Thursday as to what the order is.

----

Part 1

The NFL Draft says, "ACC > Big 10!"

BirdGT — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:00:17 -0000

A lot of the Big 10 talking heads have flooded our humble abode since the Orange Bowl announcement. They have denounced, degraded, and mocked the ACC's defensive state of affairs. One thing they fail to bring is facts. I like facts. I like facts that are numbers. Here are two numbers for Big 10 fans: 19 and 3. The ACC has had 19 defensive players taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since full expansion in the 2005 season. The Big 10 has had 11. The ACC has had 3 Pro Bowlers emerge from those 19 1st rounders (Beason, Mario, and Cromartie). The Big 10 has had 0. Those are some interesting facts for Big 10 fans to mull over. Here are 5 more interesting facts about ACC/Big 10 defensive players taken in the 2006-2009 NFL Drafts:

5. Georgia Tech has had 6 defensive draft picks since 2006. That's more than Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.

4. Duke hasn't had a player taken in the NFL Draft since 2005.

3. The Big 10's highest Draft Pick since 2006 was A.J. Hawk, the fifth overall pick. He was four picks after Mario Williams.

2. All four Drafts saw more ACC defensive players taken than Big 10 players.

1. The ACC has had 81 defensive players drafted since the 2006 NFL Draft, which is 6.75 players drafted per team. The Big 10 has only had 62, which is 5.63.

Really when you factor Ohio State and Penn State out of the Big 10, there's not much talent going to the NFL. It's the definition of a blue collar conference. Good defensive coaching is what keeps them afloat in major out of conference match ups. I kinda believe they play the isolationism game and simply avoid major OOC games until bowl season. The ACC and Big 10 have met only 9 times since full expansion. The ACC holds a 6-3 edge over the Big 10 in that time span.

What do you think about the Big 10 talent level? Do you think the Big 10 hides behind their conference schedule? Let me know your thoughts.

Barry Alvarez's Big Ten Expansion Talk Has A Logistical Problem

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:00:20 -0000

For years, the Big Ten has been struggling with just what the hell to do about the whole "11 team in the conference" thing. It's made the BXI a bit of an anomaly, being that it's the only I-A conference without either a conference championship game (SEC, Big XII, MAC, C-USA, ACC) or a round-robin schedule (Big East, Pac-10, MWC, WAC, Sun Belt). After all, when it comes to automatic bowl bids, you'd want the conference to, y'know, pick the right team, right?

Well... maybe not. As Jim Delaney will be more than happy to remind you, the Big Ten has this funny habit of sending two teams to the BCS nearly every single season--and grabbing more of that filthy BCS lucre. So until a championship game nets as much money as a second BCS bid (a little under $5 million for the conference for the second team) or the conference slips enough to stop consistently sending the second team, the impetus isn't exactly strong to expand.

Barry Alvarez didn't get that memo, though; according to ESPN, he's priming Wisconsin for the prospect of having another baby in the family:

Speaking to Wisconsin's athletic board on Friday, Alvarez, the former longtime Badgers football coach, said the conference already has investigated possibilities for expansion "from all over the country." And though he places no timetable on the search, Alvarez thinks conference commissioner Jim Delany will respond to a group of athletic directors and coaches who want expansion.

"I have a sense he is going to take this year to really be more aggressive about it," Alvarez told the board. "I just think everybody feels [expansion] is the direction to go, coaches and administrators."

All of this makes lots of sense; when teams miss two fellow conference members a year on a weird rotating schedule. A 12-team, two-division setup would simplify matters dramatically and eliminate any prospect of a 2002 scenario (and yes, we know OSU won the title; Iowa would have smoked that Buckeye team).

But if it were that cut-and-dried, it would have happened already. And there's one screaming bulletproof bitchgoblin of a problem in front of the prospect of expansion: logistics.

Here's a map of the Big Ten members:

There's a pretty obvious geographic division inherent in this setup; we've used the modern power of "Computer Internet" to make it more conspicuous:

Yeah. That's five to the west, six to the east. Moreover, there's really no moving that line east without disrupting the Michigan or Indiana rivalries. That's straight out of the question; Jim Delany may be ambitious, but he's far from an idiot.

Thus a problem: the most natural candidates for expansion are teams like Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers. Cincinnati or Kentucky if we're drunk enough to tell ourselves they'll work on academics. And they're all on the east side of that divide. That line might as well be a Berlin Wall. Go ahead, try to add any of those teams and show us where the new line is.

On the west, though, there aren't nearly as many possible candidates; moreover, they're basically all in the Big 12. So unless we want to bump Marquette or Wisconsin-Green Bay to I-A (err, FBS or whatever)--and what fun that'd be--it's time to start thinking about a little old-fashioned thievin'.

Iowa State is probably right out; they're a decent academic school, but they don't do much in terms of adding media attention. Further, their only real potential rival would be Iowa, and that gets its own special treatment already.

There's probably no way Nebraska leaves, and the two Kansas schools are likely too far away.

But what about Missouri? They've already got some bad blood with Illinois, and I kind of think the Iowa-Missouri thing could get real entertaining, real quick. Something about states that border Iowa that make them hate us. Feels fun. It brings the St. Louis media market into play, and a little less so Kansas City. St. Louis is probably more than enough. They're ranked as the #102 university in the country; not great, and it'd be the worst in the Big 10 Which Is Actually 12. But it's hardly an embarrassment, and merely aligning with the BXI could prop that ranking up to the standards of the rest of the conference.

Of course, that all depends on whether Missouri actually, y'know, wants to leave the Big XII. The Big 10 would have to make the case that it's in the school's best interest to join our conference instead and make it convincing enough that Delany doesn't have to go through the embarrassment of Missouri triumphantly announcing that they're staying in "the best conference in the land" or whatever they'd declare the Big XII to be in that scenario. Frankly, none of us have the stomach for that.

Philosophically, the case has already been made for expansion, and emphatically so. I don't think anyone's going to argue against a 12th team because 11 would be better than 12 for a conference. That's all settled. I just can't figure out who, aside from Missouri, would make any sense from a purely practical standpoint.

Or we could just say "screw it" and add Cornell.

[UPDATE: I'm fanposting it above this, but just to have it in the article: there's some good, interesting reaction from the Missouri POV over at Rock M Nation. Varied responses, as you might expect. Go check it out.--OPS]

3rd Annual Rock M Nation Bowl Pick 'Em Contest

The Beef — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:00:18 -0000

UPDATE: BUMPED BACK TO THE TOP OF THE PAGE. PICKS ARE DUE AT NOON TOMORROW.

That's right loyal readers...the Bowl Pick 'Em Contest is back for its third season.

It is simple to participate. Simply reply to this thread with your picks. You will need to pick both against the spread, as well as the over/under, so you will have two picks per game. The spreads are LOCKED, so a movement in the line will not be taken into account. The spreads are courtesy of bookmaker.com because...well...that's the one I could find (and unless otherwise noted) They also represent where the lines were when they opened, which was a week ago (had to wait for Army/Navy to be played to determine Eagle Bowl and Texas Bowl line)

Our winner from last year is FSUncensored, who went 39-27 to win by three games over The Cool Alonzo and myself. All time, MU 1839 (our first winner) holds the best two-year record at 18 games over .500 (74-56). Of the "couples" category, The Beef and Tailgate Queen came out 3 game ahead of Bill C and Bill C's wife last year, tying their annual battle at 1-1. Overall, the contest generated a won-loss record of 1066-1244 for a not so good percentage of .461. Over the two years, we currently sit at 1711-1879 for a winning percentage of .477. Yes...I've kept track.

Picks are due by noon on Saturday, December 19th (since the first games are later that evening). Picks are lined up after the jump.

As for prizes...1st prize will get you the Rock M Nation T-shirt of your choice, unless RPT (who somehow is the keeper of the purse strings around here) decides we want to pony up some additional swag.

Anyway, we had a good time with this last year with 35 participants (up from 20 the first year) and somehow I am thinking we are going to have a FEW more than that :-) Come one, come all (and that certainly includes non-Rock M regulars...anyone from SB Nation is welcome to participate)...make me work hard at this. If you were here last season and have changed names, just let me know and I will do my best to give you your two or three-season score when all is said and done as well. I will also be adding a couple set of special picks. We will have the "coin-flip" picks, where each pick will be decided by heads or tails. I will also compile the "Consensus" picks, which will be the most popular pick on each game, to see how RMN did as a community (in the majority at least).

New Mexico

Fresno State -10 1/2 vs. Wyoming

Over/Under - 55 1/2

St. Petersburg

Rutgers -2 vs. UCF

Over/Under - 44 1/2

New Orleans

Sothern Miss -3 1/2 vs. Mid Tenn St.

Over/Under - 59

Las Vegas

Oregon State - 1 1/2 vs. BYU

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Poinsetta

Cal -3 vs. Utah

Over/Under - 53 1/2

Hawaii

Nevada -14 vs. SMU

Over/Under - 73 1/2

Little Caesers

Ohio -2 vs. Marshall

Over/Under - 50

Meineke

Pitt -3 vs. UNC

Over/Under - 44 1/2

Emerald

USC -9 vs. BC

Over/Under - 45 1/2

Music City

Clemson -7 vs. Kentucky

Over/Under - 52 1/2

Independence

Georgia -7 vs. Texas A&M

Over/Under - 64

Eagle Bank (LSVC odds)

UCLA -4 vs. Temple

Over/Under - 46 1/2

Champs Sports

Miami (FL) -3 vs. Wisconsin

Over/Under - 56

Humanitarian

Bowling Green PK vs. Idaho

Over/Under - 68 1/2

Holiday

Arizona -1 vs. Nebraska

Over/Under - 41

Armed Forces

Houston -5 vs. Air Force

Over/Under - 61

Sun

Oklahoma -9 1/2 vs. Stanford

Over/Under - 56 1/2

Texas (LVSC odds)

Mizzou -6 vs. Navy

Over/Under - 54

Insight

Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa State

Over/Under - 48

Chick-Fil-A

Va Tech -4 1/2 vs. Tenn

Over/Under - 50 1/2

Outback

Auburn -8 vs. Northwestern

Over/Under - 54 1/2

Gator

West Virginia -2 1/2 vs. Florida St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Capital One

Penn State -3 vs. LSU

Over/Under - 44

Rose

Oregon -3 1/2 vs. Ohio State

Over/Under - 51 1/2

Sugar

Florida -10 vs. Cincy

Over/Under - 55 1/2

International

South Fla. -6 1/2 vs. No. Illinois

Over/Under - 50

PapaJohns

South Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UCONN

Over/Under - 53

Cotton

Ole Miss -3 vs. Okie State

Over/Under -  50 1/2

Liberty

Arkansas -7 1/2 vs. East Carolina

Over/Under - 63 1/2

Alamo

Texas Tech -7 vs. Michigan St.

Over/Under - 60 1/2

Fiesta

TCU -7 vs. Boise St

Over/Under - 54

Orange

Ga Tech -4 vs. Iowa

Over/Under - 51

GMAC

Central Mich -4 vs. Troy

Over/Under - 64

BCS Champ

Alabama -5 1/2 vs. Texas

Over/Under - 45

Very Nice Cover, SI

Bama Hawkeye — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:27:52 -0000

John Clay marks the third Big Ten cover of the football season, following the star turns of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and the Daryll Clark & Stefen Wisniewski combo.