All the naysayers picking the Baltimore Ravens to lose in Denver in the AFC divisional playoff Saturday are ignoring a few key betting factors.
First, win streaks always end and the Broncos have been galloping along with 11 in a row.
Second, Baltimore has handled Denver in recent years, turning a 7-2 ATS profit for their backers in the past nine meetings.
And third, the Ravens want to put off the Ray Lewis Retirement Party and they have revenge on their minds after getting thumped by Denver a few weeks ago.
The Denver Broncos are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 weeks and are favored to continue that dominance when they host the Ravens this Saturday at Mile High Stadium. Denver was a 9.5-point home favorite at most online sportsbooks ttracked by OddsShark.com, but were -10 at a few places.
"It's significant that the Ravens are such a large underdog, because they are winless in 16 games since 1994 when they are a dog of 9 points or more," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
At 13-3 SU, the Denver Broncos finished the regular season tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the NFL's best record. A consistent money maker at 11-5 ATS and 9-2 ATS down the stretch, no team was more consistently dominant than the Denver Broncos over the last three months.
Peyton Manning's offense scored at least 30 points in nine of their last 11 games and the defense allowed no more than 24 points in any game over that stretch and less than 17 points in seven of them. [ DDivisional Playoff Predictions ]
Baltimore ended the season on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid, but in Ray Lewis's return last week the Ravens made quick work of the Indianapolis Colts in a 24-9 victory. Ray Lewis announced his retirement before last week's game, adding some extra emotion to this playoff run.
The Ravens lost to Denver 34-17 at home four weeks ago; will having Ray Lewis back be enough to change the tides this time around?
Baltimore has fared well against the Denver Broncos historically with a 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS record in its last nine games against the Broncos. The Ravens were 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games against the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning at quarterback, though, and Manning continued his success against the Ravens in that Week 15 beat-down.
10 points may seem like a lot, but this Denver team has been a spread-covering machine with four straight double-digit wins to end the season (including the Baltimore win).
The Broncos have been consistently dominant for so long that there is little reason to expect them to slow down now, even against a capable and motivated Baltimore Ravens team.
PICK: Denver -10 (courtesy of PickShark.com)