What must be taken into account is the play of the Patriots, specifically QB Tom Brady, on the road.
The Patriots have been awful on the road over the past couple seasons, for no real reason. Mike Reiss of ESPN breaks down some numbers that aren't very flattering. The team has been outscored 116-41 in the 2nd half of their past 8 road games. Quarterback Tom Brady has been the worst 4th Quarter quarterback on the road in the NFL since 2009- bar none.
This is a Dolphins team that took the Jets to the wire so the Patriots should understand the quality of opponent they're dealing with.
Check out Pats Pulpit for four more keys to the game.