Not sure what the schedule maker was thinking giving Jacksonville a Monday Nighter in 2011, but his folly is your gift if you are betting the Jaguars vs Ravens game tonight. Much like the Sunday Nighter where all the trends pointed to a Saints cover and an OVER play (they certainly made good on both with a 62-7 win), all the trends tonight point to the Ravens and UNDER.
Starting with the NFL power rankings at OddsShark.com, this seems a mismatch. The Ravens hold down the top spot while Jacksonville is No. 26. Trend examples? We got plenty. Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS on Monday Night Football since 1999 while the Ravens have been dominant lately, going 5-1 ATS in six recent prime-time matches.
The Ravens are 7-1 SU against the Jaguars dating back 15 years. Baltimore is also a money-making 8-2 ATS the past 10 times as a favorite and they are a double-digit road chalk here, a rarity on MNF.
But do you dare lay 10 points or more on a road team? Many handicappers avoid this situation or side with the home underdog. But Jacksonville has done little lately to warrant your trust with a 10-point lead.
A more interesting scenario is picking apart of the Monday Night prop odds listings to find value there. For example, if you don’t like the Ravens at -10.5, but you love them at -3.5, you can bet that line. It costs you a bit more (-210 instead of -110, meaning you need to risk $210 to profit $100 instead of $110).
Or maybe you like the like the fun of picking margin-of-victory odds. You can see from the chart below that Jaguar blowout would pay out huge (22/1). The sweet spot at online sportsbooks such as Bodog seems to be 10-17 points.
Baltimore Ravens 1 to 3 points 15/2
Baltimore Ravens 4 to 6 points 7/1
Baltimore Ravens 7 to 10 points 7/2
Baltimore Ravens 11 to 13 points 11/2
Baltimore Ravens 14 to 17 points 7/1
Baltimore Ravens 18 to 21 points 11/1
Baltimore Ravens 22 or more points 5/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 1 to 3 points 8/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 to 6 points 12/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 7 to 10 points 11/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 11 to 13 points 18/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 to 17 points 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 18 to 21 points 30/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 22 or more points 22/1