Tampa Bay gets its first Monday Night Football home game since 2003 and if it goes like all their other MNF games since that year, they will lose and fail to cover. Tampa Bay is a whopping 10.5-point favorite against the winless Colts, and they have lost all three of their Monday Nighters since that 2003 season.
By contrast, the Colts have dominated on Monday Night, going 7-1 ATS in eight games since 2004 but this not the same Indianapolis team that bettors love to support.
"This is a tricky spot for bettors, because you have to think the Colts are buckling down and should benefit from an extra day of rest and practice," said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com. "They just can’t seem to get much going lately but they get a generous 10.5-point cushion for fans betting them."
Indeed, 63% of the betting and voting public at OddsShark.com are going with the underdog Colts.
Other trends that may go out the betting window because of Peyton Manning’s absence is the 3-0 ATS run enjoyed by the Colts vs the Buccaneers since 1997. They are also 7-2 ATS in nine games against NFC South teams since 2003, with one of the losses against the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.
But is a double-digit spread too much to trust Tampa Bay with for NFL bettors?
The Bucs were double-digit chalk three times in 2008 (not since) and failed to cover either time. They are also 0-5 ATS in their past five home games in October.
It’s possible the total could be the best bet here as several trends point to it – 4 of 5 meetings played OVER, the Colts are trending OVER on the road and the Bucs are trending OVER slightly at home.
Bettors seem to be leaning this way as well as 69% of bettors have picked the OVER in this one according to consensus numbers at OddsShark.com.
See early Week 5 NFL lines as well as the latest Monday Night Football odds when you visit SBNation’s lines partner Odds Shark.