So Cam Newton and Drew Brees - two of the three top-rated passers in the league - hook up Sunday and all the trends are pointing to an UNDER bet?
True, this is a different Carolina team hosting the Saints with the dynamic rookie under center. But betting UNDER the total has been money in the bank when the Saints visit the Panthers. As in, eight years, eight games, eight UNDERs. Add five recent games at New Orleans and the total run is 11-2 favoring the UNDER. It’s just one of many intriguing over/under trends in Week 5.
"It's one of those crazy streaks that you have to be aware of, even if your handicapping suggests something else will happen," said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com. "Sometimes, you just have to hop on the trend bangwagon or at least get out of its way as it chugs along to the bank."
It's one of many key trends in Week 5 that focus on the total. A lopsided trend occurs in the Jets at Patriots battle where the Jets have been consistent OVER plays as an underdog (they get 9 points) and the Patriots have been consistent OVER plays as a favorite. [ Jets vs Patriots Matchup Stats ]
Does one trend cancel out the other or make it even stronger? The Jets have pledged to return to the ground game, which could chew up clock and make an UNDER more likely. But these Patriots can score in bunches and the total of 49 could be eclipsed by halftime.
See more Week 5 NFL trends below and full matchup data, searchable NFL databases, sortable ranking stats and live odds at SB Nation’s lines partner.
New Orleans -6.5 at Carolina +6.5 | Total 52.5 | Matchup 1:00 PM FOX
Past eight meetings here have all played UNDER
Under is 11-2 in the past 13 meetings overall
Saints just 2-7 ATS in their past 9 vs Panthers
Oakland +6 at Houston -6 | Total 48.5 | Matchup 1:00 PM CBS
Raiders 1-5 SU and ATS vs Texans
Houston is 16-3 favoring the OVER past 19 Oct games
Philadelphia -3 at Buffalo +3 | Total 50 1:00 PM | Matchup FOX
Eagles -6 in turnovers; Bills +7 in turnovers
OVER is 9-1-1 past 11 Eagle road games
Eagles 1-6 ATS past 7 as favorite
Kansas City +1.5 at Indianapolis -1.5 | Total 38.5 | Matchup 1:00 PM CBS
Indy is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games with KC
Both teams head for their bye week in Week 6
Arizona +1.5 at Minnesota -1.5 | Total 45 1:00 PM FOX
Cardinals have lost 8 of 10 trips to the Metrodome
Cardinals OVER bet in October (15-3-1 past 19 games)
Tampa Bay +2 at San Francisco -2 | Total 41 4:05 PM FOX
UNDER is 12-3 past 15 meetings since 1984
Buccaneers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Bucs 1-8 SU past 9 trips to SF
NY Jets +9 at New England -9 | Total 49.5 4:15 PM CBS
Patriots 9-0 SU, 7-1-1 ATS past 9 at home in October
OVER is 9-1 past 10 when Jets are underdog
OVER is 17-3 in 20 games with the Pats as chalk
San Diego -4 at Denver + 4 | Total 47 4:15 PM CBS
Chargers OVER is 11-1 past 12 years before bye week
San Diego is 7-2-1 ATS past 10 vs Broncos
Green Bay -6 at Atlanta +6 | Total 53.5 8:20 PM NBC
Packers 10-3 ATS as a favorite
Falcons 3-1 ATS at home as underdog since 2008