Seldom do the situational trends and handicapping analysis mesh so perfectly with a set of recent betting trends. When it happens, it’s a game where NFL bettors often load up with one of their biggest wagers of the year. In Week 9, that game could be the Ravens vs Steelers.
Pittsburgh comes in riding a four-game win streak with last week’s victory over the Patriots proving they can beat a quality foe. It also proved their defense is back in business, where they rank No. 2 in the league in home defense.
Baltimore meanwhile lost a ugly Monday Nighter and followed it up with a creaky 30-27 win at Arizona, where RB Ray Rice bailed them out with three scores. So in the ‘recent quality of play’ situation and strength of schedule situation, the Steelers have the edge.
“From a point spread perspective, we see the Steelers as the slightly superior squad here, meaning they are good line value here,” explained Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com. “The home team typically gets three points for the home field advantage, so we would expect to see this number -4.5 or -5.” [ The line was sitting at -3 at several shops tracked by OddsShark.com at midweek ]
From a revenge perspective, the Steelers will be hungry to return the favour from Week 1 when the Ravens forced seven turnovers and crushed them. Revenge is sometimes an overrated factor, but there are instances, especially in heated division rivalries, where it must be considered.
And check out the other recent patterns favoring Pittsburgh. They have been dominant at home (8-2 ATS past 10), dominant as a favorite (7-2 ATS past 9) and dominant within the AFC North (6-1 ATS past 7 within division).
Much like the Packers vs Chargers game, the Bucs at Saints game and Seahawks at Cowboys game which also point singularly to one against the spread outcome, the Steelers look like safe money on the NFL Week 9 odds menu.
OddsShark Pick: Steelers -3
More quick Week 9 NFL trends:
Bears at Eagles (Monday Night Football Trends) – Play UNDER? Bears UNDER is 5-2 past 7 seasons after a BYE week; Bears UNDER is 9-2 past 11 November road games; Bears UNDER is 8-2 past 10 road games; Bears UNDER is 15-5 past 20 games as underdog