With the NFL's announcement that kickoffs would be moved from the 30 yard line to the 35 yard line, a move made with the intention of increasing touchbacks and decreasing kickoff returns due to safety concerns, it's fair to wonder about how much the value of kick return specialists will diminish should the NFL ever return, resembling the old product we were used to. The number of kickoffs that ended up between the three yard line and three yards deep in the end zone seems high through pure personal recollection. It's hardly scientific, but on the surface, this five yard change seems like it could be a big deal.
To see how much the rule change will affect kickoffs, and therefore, the value of kickoff specialists, someone would have to go through every NFL kickoff from this season (or just 1000 of them, actually. Hi high school statistics teacher!) and determine how many of them just narrowly avoided being likely touchbacks. Of course, we'd have to set a parameter for "likely touchbacks," which we could figure out while we were taking the kickoff length sample.
My hypothesis is that somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/2 of kickoffs fall between the three yard line and three yards deep in the end zone. With the rules changing, I would consider these likely to become touchbacks. Obviously, based on a variety of factors (intelligence of kick returner, ineptitude of kickoff coverage), not all of these will become touchbacks. After taking the samples for kickoff length and setting our parameter for likely touchbacks, we can then figure out what percentage of kickoffs that fall in our "likely touchbacks" parameter actually result in touchbacks. From there, you figure out the likely increase in touchbacks as a result of the rule change. Compare that to the rate of successful kick returns (a completely different set of parameters and sampling that we won't get into), and you can figure out how the value of kick return specialists might decrease.
My guess? This rule change makes kick return specialists incredibly less valuable. Like, by a factor of over 9000. If any NFL team actually wants to pay me to do this research, my e-mail address is on my profile page. My rates are reasonable!
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NFL Rule Changes: Has The Value Of Return Specialists Been Significantly Diminished?
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Comments
It's possible that it makes them more important
The kickoffs are being moved up which means the coverage teams are five yards closer. Might kickers be able to put a little more hang time on their kicks and get their coverage teams down there to pin returners inside the 20?
Two roads diverged in a wood and I – I tweeted my followers to ask which I should take
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 22, 2011 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
That's certainly one school of thought
And one that makes some sense. If kickoff returns are harder, you need a better guy to get something out of them. But, if the analysis shows that it’s a futile exercise no matter how good your returner is, it obviously doesn’t make sense to waste a high draft pick/free agent money/a roster spot on a specialist.
by Kevin McCauley on Mar 22, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Another thing to consider is how the CBA affects this
Working on higher kicks that can pin teams in and better kick coverage will take more work, something that might not be possible if the CBA cuts down on practice time. Teams might elect to go for the touchback so they can allocate practice time elsewhere.
Two roads diverged in a wood and I – I tweeted my followers to ask which I should take
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 22, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
They say it is for safety
Speaking of statistics – is there any proof of this? It “sounds good” but it is not any more likely to get injured on a kickoff than any other play.
The wanted to make it an 18 game regular season – then do this for safety …. rigggghhtttt!
I am totally optimistic about the Texans new season - at least until the first of the 4 or 2 (if any) preseason games
by Barryfromtexas on Mar 23, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions
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