NFL Free Agency Do's And Don'ts, Starring The Running Back Rule

We mentioned on Tuesday that with the NFL Lockout limping to a conclusion this week, we're on the brink of what'll probably be the craziest free agency period in NFL History. This is a good thing, because chaos means lots of terrible decisions, and there's nothing more fun than watching teams try to justify all their indefensible decisions in free agency.

On that note, over at Grantland, Bill Barnwell put together a nice primer on the types of players teams should actively avoid. They won't heed his advice, of course, but that's what makes this fun.

First of all, you don't want to spend big money on a running back. Like, ever:

Virtually every outlay given to a veteran back in free agency has failed. Derrick Ward got $6 million in guaranteed money from the Buccaneers in 2009 and lasted one year. His former teammate with the Giants, Brandon Jacobs, re-signed with the team and lost his starting job a year later. During the 2007 offseason, Ahman Green got $6.5 million in guaranteed money for a total of 144 carries in two years with the Texans.

The Broncos passed on Green to sign Travis Henry, who got $12 million in guaranteed money and ran for 691 yards and four touchdowns before the team released him to a life of child support payments and drug trafficking. By comparison, the Raiders got off lucky by giving Dominic Rhodes $2.5 million to produce 75 below-average carries. And they signed him only because their $17.8 million investment in LaMont Jordan after the 2005 season proved to be a great way to get 3.8 disgruntled yards per carry. Edgerrin James made that look good, running for 3.6 yards a pop while picking up $25 million from the Cardinals during his three years with the team. James was benched during the team's 2008 NFC championship season for a fifth-round pick making $430,500, Tim Hightower.

Yeah, you knew that veteran running backs had an ugly track record in the NFL, but did you have any idea it was that ugly? Something to keep in mind in the next few weeks, when some GM will proudly announce the $20 million contract he just gave to Deangelo Williams or Ronnie Brown.

And in general, if you're favorite team's spending big money on a free agent running back, it's probably a terrible idea, destined to make them look like idiots a few years down the line.

Barnwell also cautions against overpaying for secondary receivers who've been successful in dynamic passing offenses. Guys like Az-Hakim, Donte' Stallworth, and most famously, Alvin Harper. It's a principle that applies to wide receivers especially, but also to role players, in general.

Note: Pretty sure the Raiders have made this mistake 25 years in-a-row.

Being part of a great system--passing attack, running game, pass rush, secondary--doesn't necessarily make someone a great player. Just look at the difference between Matt Cassel in New England and Matt Cassel in Kansas City. If good teams let players walk, it's not a coincidence (a point Barnwell makes later in his piece with a staggering Pittsburgh Steelers chart).

So if those are a few "don'ts", then what are the "do's"? Basically, If a guy's available, there's probably a reason for it, and teams should avoid paying big bucks before asking themselves why, exactly, he's worth so much, and whether he fits any of the criteria noted above. In other words, pay carefully, and proceed with caution.

This is where we remind you that teams have about two weeks to sign free agents this year, and "care" or "caution" will be even lower on the priority list than usual. It's gonna be so much fun.